The Housing Bubble

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“Dutch roots are commerce and capitalism which enrich buyers and sellers alike.”

I agree and I am an admirer of the Dutch. They took over form the Italians (Venice, especially) and brought trade and commerce advantage to N-W Europe. English followed the Dutch to Indian trade and did one better by a smart treaty (spices to the Dutch and fabric to the English).

You are reading too much in my narrow comment on the Dutch financier/rentier class.

Jas

Mole Man is clearly not well informed about the Dutch budget (or he buys into all the government rhetoric). The Dutch spend more on homeowner subsidies than on healthcare and education together (but they still think they are a ‘knowledge economy’). What they spend on protection of the environment is close to nothing (just a few % of homeowner subsidies) and spending on flood protection has been extremely low too over the last 10-20 years.

Of those homeowner subsidies (both for owners and for renters) by far the biggest chunk goes into the pockets of a relatively small and relatively wealthy part of the citizens, those who don’t need it. It’s Robin Hood in reverse.

Yes, social security is nice if you cannot or don’t want to work, but I don’t consider that a benefit. We have loads of people who are perfectly able to work but never did so and have always lived the good life despite not working. We also get the worst immigrants in Europe, the real parasites - those that know you can get loads of money and free goodies (including a free home) here without ever working. Immigrants that are willing to work to get ahead choose other countries.

Jas has a point though. The rentier class ruled the Netherlands after the gilded age during the 17th century for two centuries. Long after the commerce and capitalism were taken over by the British. Most of the rents came from abroad though.

I’m not as discontent as NHZ and I’m reasonably ok with our “benefits and relative levels of satisfaction”. I hate to subsidise home-owners and the killing of Afghans, though.

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“The rentier class ruled the Netherlands after the gilded age during the 17th century for two centuries.”

That is where the American revolutionaries went to borrow money in 1770s. Person for person the Dutch were the best at commerce and later at finance.

Jas

Mole Man is wrong about GDP. That approximately 20% figure has withstood the test of time since the 1950s, no matter which way the taxes go, up or down. When GDP increases, more money comes in (at the same approximately 20% level by comparison) and when GDP decreases, less money comes in (at the same approximately 20% level by comparison). The supposed lesson from this is that if the government wants more money, it needs to boost GDP, not inhibit it.

Here in the U.S., most of the money we pay at the pump is taxes. For an increasingly socialistic, goody-twoshoes government (actually a collection of governments) hellbent on telling everyone how not to behave, what to wear, and how not to consume oil, ours certainly seems to rely heavily on the very things it denounces: smoking, drinking, and driving in excess. If all the smokers and drinkers and SUV drivers stopped tomorrow, the country would collapse from lack of associated taxes.

If politicians, former and present, are serious about changing our behavior, they should stop benefiting from the things they don’t like. When Al Gore stops flying around in a private jet and selling and buying bogus carbon credits (made up out of thin–or is it think?–air), and starts walking or riding a bike, I may take him more seriously.

the Dutch rentier class:
towards the end of the 17th century, wealthy Dutchies found out that you could get rich much easier by NOT working and just providing finance. The country has gone downhill ever since. Where did the Americans get their bright ideas about the New Finance Economy?

(and yes, the first Dutch housing bubbles appeared on stage together with their finance economy).

Please excuse my sloppy misspellings and typos. “Goody Two-Shoes,” “benefitting,” etc. instead of what I typed. I’m definitely spaztastic!

Kevin Phillips “American Theocracy” discusses how the Dutch began their economic ascent through hard work and engineering ingenuity (advanced camshafts, automatic windmill sail adjustments), then depleting massive deposits of energy (whale oil), and then rentier economics.

How much petroleum can be pumped out of the Netherlands or its territories? How much are the Dutch willing to pay to have sailors and soldiers at the ready to secure foreign supplies of petroleum? Perhaps their tax on gasoline is designed to represent the real cost of the commodity, regardless of how those revenues are ultimately spent.

I don’t know about this taxes being 20% of GDP theory. I do know this: spending IS taxing, whether you levy the taxes today or tomorrow.

Hey spaztic, riding a bicycle to and from speeches would take a long time. Well it would…..
Hey maybe we could get “enviro W” to do that after he retires to speech or mangling speech events. Then we will see his crawford place is/was just for getting elected.

Mr environment could take commercial flights. I guess thats too middle class for the hypocrite.

Exactly! Thank you!

There should be a similar saying involving conspiracy theories and profit motive.

$9.50 is relative though.

If the average MPG of a Dutch car is twice the average MPG of an American car (and I mean Dutch and American person who owns it not produced by the Dutch or Americans) then the relative cost of gas is $4.25 in The Netherlands. Just a hair higher than in the USA.

But I guess it is pretty easy to fool the average American into consuming more.

At some point, you can’t get blood from a stone. The American consumer on average is tapped out. We’ve just completed a 10 year run of easy credit. Most people CAN’T consume at this point. Its not like Americans stopped because they smartened up due to economic downturn… they literally cannot pay their bills.

“Its not like Americans stopped because they smartened up due to economic downturn…they literally cannot pay their bills.”

Exactly right, Ed. The middle-class consumer is tapped-out and running around in circles, like Nikolai Chauchescu looking for an exit.

what was the downside if nothing was done during that time? a *bolshevik* revolution like in russia.

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I seriously doubt. When people don’t have faith in their principles the slippery slope presents itself as an alternative.

Jas

sounds like feudalism to me.

I’ve been in Holland and getting around without a car is 10x as easy as most places in the US and buss service could easily be ramped up. Not sure how the gas tax is used to support home prices though? I wouldn’t care if it got diverted to other causes that income/sales taxes would normally support.

MEaston: I guess you have visited the ‘Randstad’ then because getting around without a car outside that area is often pretty tough (especially outside business hours). No, buss service cannot easily be ramped up, it is being phased out in large parts of the country; this is a trend that has been going on for years and will continue. In my part of the country many people expect that even the trains will disappear in about 10 years (it will be only available for commercial freight, not for passengers).
So the only remaining options are working close to home or using a car.

have a nephew in Orlando who commutes about 25 miles each way to work. and to blow a hole in our basic stereotype, he doesn’t live in a McMansion…but switched jobs about 18 months ago and went from a 9-mile commute to what he’s got now. I think he drives the minivan. What do they get, about 28 mpg?

Up until March, I was commuting about 2 miles to work. I have a full size truck, but only had to fill up about once a month. Gas could have gone to $5 and it wouldn’t have effected me much at all (as far as direct fuel costs).

In March, the wife and I moved. She is closer to work now (drives a v6 mustang) but I’m commuting even further than she was before. I keep forgetting to check the milage, but it’s probably over 50 miles. It takes me just under an hour, I’m pulling 80 most of the way. I put $91 in fuel in my vehicle the other day, that’s a record for me.

I also just accepted a new job much closer. I’ll be starting on the 23rd of next Month. That will get me to a more reasonable fuel usage level…I expect it to cut my fuel usage in half.

Incidentally, the new job is at a state university. So, if I decide to stick around for 20 years, I’ll get to suckle on the government tit for the later part of my life. I just want to thank you (any Arkansas tax payers) in advance.

It is my understanding that a vehicle gets better gas mileage on the open road at 55-65 mpg than ‘around town’–stop and go.
My 12 year old economy car 30-33 on the hwy and 20-25 ‘around town’.
My golden retriever’s ford explorer sport gets 18-22 on the hwy and is parked otherwise.

Me…my commute is 64 miles each way. We live in metro Atlanta. My husband is able to telecommute a couple days/week, but that’s not an option for me. I hope to move in the summer of ‘09, so this isn’t going to be a problem forever. And I drive an older Accord, which gets about 32 MPG.

I was going to school and working in DC at the time. One of the nurses I worked with was going with the officer in charge Nixion’s Presidential yacht ‘Sequoia’ when he and the whole frigging crew was busted for using grass

which she wanted to spike Nixon’s tea with

Nixon on acid? That hurts my head just thinking about it.

Geez, and I thought all this time he’d been using it daily!

there was a recent show on BBC where a couple had to abandon their Spanish dream home because it was built without official building permit (happened a lot on the Costas, especially around Marbella because of the extremely corrupt government there). A new highway will be running right through their property within a few years and they didn’t know if the government will pay them any compensation for having to abandon the home (probably not, there are more examples).

In general it seems that homes at the Spanish Costas are selling for less then their purchased price of a few years ago, despite the fact that officially prices are much (50-100%) higher than a few years ago. So probably the statistics are lying. Or all these foreigners have a tough time finding a buyer and are the exception to the rule (there is more Spain then just the Costas). Credit is still plentiful in Europe, but maybe buyers are disappearing in this area because speculators have moved to greener pastures near the EU borders, and the dumb money has enough Spanish homes by now.

When I lived in Anaheim Hills I was amazed at the tropical landscaping, the daily watering, and the streams that would flow down the street gutters in the morning.

IMO SoCal will be enforcing xeriscape landscaping in the future, just like we mandate in new areas of AZ.

And your point is valid. Check out the Ford Verve and other nice looking smaller cars that are offered overseas. It’s just clear that the auto companies want consumers to stay in their large SUVs and other vehicles with little technology that have the tooling paid for decades ago. Seriously - outside of cosmetic, technology, and safety changes, how much different is a 2008 Tahoe from a 1978 Suburban?

Maybe better engine technology, but when it has to push a 7000+ lb behemoth around, there’s only so much it can do. Plus I would also wager that the Tahoe has far more ponies under the hood.

It’s just clear that the auto companies want consumers to stay in their large SUVs and other vehicles with little technology that have the tooling paid for decades ago.

No doubt about that. The profit margins on the behemoths were huge.

Seriously - outside of cosmetic, technology, and safety changes, how much different is a 2008 Tahoe from a 1978 Suburban?

Well, if you exclude those changes, there hasn’t really been much change since Henry Ford ditched the electric car in favor of the ones with an internal combustion engine in 1914.

You know I was thinking of that after I wrote it, I mean Boeing is still building airplanes with 1903 technology, right?

To rephrase my point, the SUV is the vehicle with the least amount of advancements and the highest profit margin. Take a pickup truck frame, remove the bed, add another row of seats, and sell it as a safety wagon to someone for $45,000 with $20,000 of labor and materials used to produce it.

Cars have changed drastically, with unibody construction requiring precise welding and assembly and space age frames to keep occupants safe. Trucks still lumber on with a frame that when hit will transport the shock to less rigid objects (i.e. human bodies), while cars will crush to dissipate the energy.

There have been much more changes to cars than trucks and that’s a key reason that trucks remain large profit centers.

“You know I was thinking of that after I wrote it, I mean Boeing is still building airplanes with 1903 technology, right?”

Not at all. New generation is carbon fiber reinforced plastic (about 35 tons).

Started out with stretched cloth in 1916, now it is stretched plastic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787

Sorry, missed irony again

If you really think about it, we really haven’t gotten that far from the times of abacus and pigeon mail. It’s the same, only different.

a 2008 suburban is probably 2000 pounds heavier than a 1978 model, probably due to extra safety and luxury because in 1978 the suburban was basically considered an enclosed work truck, not a status symbol. Also a 1978 small block 350 got around 200hp and returned probably 12-13 mpg in the suburban, with virtually no emission controls; the current 5.3 small block is around 320 hp and gets 20mpg on the highway even under the new ratings, and despite the extra weight. in the base model vette that engine (aluminum and enlarged to 6.2 liters) gets around 430 hp and returns 26 on the highway (obviously a much lighter and more aerodynamic vehicle). there have been great advancements in the engine technology even though the basic shape and engine design of the vehicle is similar (people love to rip on the SBC because it was originally designed in the ’50s, but its pretty much bulletproof and because of its very compact OVH design it has a higher power per weight than just about anything, including german and italian exotics). Its wrong to assume there haven’t been advancements.

Also, someone said up above that GM and Ford have great products in europe, which is true - I just cannot for the life of me understand why they won’t sell them here; the only somewhat smart reason I can think of is that they would be way too expensive given the value of the dollar (the general must be losing thousands on every Opel (oops I mean Saturn) Astra sold here since they are built in belgium)

“Take a pickup truck frame, remove the bed, add another row of seats, and sell it as a safety wagon to someone for $45,000 with $20,000 of labor and materials used to produce it.“

They’ve got less than $10k in ‘em. The 1/2-ton PU running gear is also used on their commercial passenger vehicles such as fire, police, and taxi.

Hehe, it took so long to come up I thought that maybe Ben was seriously against non-paying propaganda

“New homes also offer warranties and require less maintenance than pre-owned homes.”

Certain thoughts can not easily be juxtapositioned without mental contortions, unless you are a professional…

are you in Southlake? Lots of stuff for sale there?

Matt, send me your asking price and I’ll make a lowball.

Nah, Grapevine. We are housing bubble relative innocents here.

Lots of high end stuff for sale on my drive to work through Southlake, though.

One example area flooded with yard signs:
I see one new mansion owner (late last year, IIRC) is either building a mother-in-law sub-mansion behind the hacienda or is building a few more SUV stalls.
Google Earth: 32°58′10.53″N, 97°10′3.81″W

West across the street from this are two spec homes. At least one is still up for sale. Fancy stone and wood work, copper on the roofs, garages through courtyards (no portcullis though), metal fencing, etc.
Covered by Google Earth street view at 2280 N. Peytonville Ave, Southlake, TX 76092

More construction on the several proto-mansions east of him (or some of it may be stalled construction) and several realty signs North and East across the street, and also the mansion immediately South of him.

Realty Trac has 1150 sites in zip 76092, but only has 2 of the many I mentioned above.

And thanks to Lost for the, err, “support”.

I may take you up on it if we get one of those mythical “reasonable” offers. I know I can count on my HBB friends to send in “insulting” ones to make the R’s stand out

A million years ago someone, I don’t know who, self-published a book called “Bond Daddy.” I received a copy of it from a Justice Department Lawyer who got it from the then Arkansas securities sommissioner (at the time most of the Bond Daddies were in Little Rock). The book, written as a humorous guide to an aspiring Bond Daddy, had as one of the key precepts that “a banker is a dummy.” I’ve never forgotten those words - “a banker is a dummy.” How true.

I could supply substantive evidence for that assertion, but I somehow think everyone can supply their own.

I’ve called on a few REOs in Arlington and can’t even get a price from the realtor. I don’t think banks in Texas really want to sell their foreclosures. That is no doubt helping to prop up prices. How long can the banks go before having to start really liquidating their properties??

I’ve seen some bundled auctions with amazing prices.

Hey what is the status of rice at Costco? Is there still a limit on bags of rice, or has everyone stocked up in a 2 years supply already?

I would suspect prices are soon to crash from lack of demand.

After enduring a VA-CA flight seated next to some gargantuan (and I hesitate to use the term, ) individual whose roll-after-suffocating-roll of flesh spilled not only over the seat arms and onto my cushion, but two-thirds of the way into my seat as well, (I don’t even let my LOVERS get that close,) I have foresworn commercial air travel for the remainder of my earthly days. Five hours (plus another on the tarmac with no air-con,) literally squashed with my face, arm, boobs, hip and thigh into the window and chair arm at a 45 degree angle, has scarred this claustrophobic for life.
(It was my kid’s graduation, I had to do it. Had a perfect stranger in any other scenario done the same thing to me for five hours they would be looking at 5-20 without parole, I promise you.)

As I contorted there, pinned for the eternity that was my confinement, trying with all my will not to scream and keep on screaming until they either turned the plain around and let me off, or performed an emergency liposuction on this Joe846 pack, it occurred to me that airlines should charge not only for checked baggage, but for butt-space. For example:

My clothed butt takes up 13″ of seat space. Some form of bench seating (like is used in say, pick-up trucks or rear seats in SUV’s,) with parallel tracking for an easily reconfigurable restraint system, would have allowed this grossly obese fatass to have his 48″ and still allowed me to breath.

Perhaps FAA should consider mandating at least eight inches on either butt side for “personal space.” Some clever person could make a fortune by designing a seat system for retrofitting existing aircraft– and the flying public would hail them as hero!

A woman in England successfully sued BA for not providing an alternative seat in this situation. Personally i’d refuse to be seated if this happened to me - it’s long overdue that they did something about this.

My goodness, ahansen, you’re pretty eloquent there, arencha? This essay was Homerian in scope, really, and terribly exciting in its epic sweep and stylistic breadth! Impressive.

Did you actually measure your bum? Clothed vs. natural state? I’m going to go do that, soons’ I find a ruler and no one’s looking.

I learned my stylistic nuance from that HBB literary master, Olympiagal.

And yes, in the name of scientific inquiry I did. With a ruler and a MagicMarker.
At home. In my spare time.

I had a similar thing happen to me on a short sna-sea flight last year. I had the Aisle and a 50 year old fatso was in the middle seat. When I arrived at my seat, the armrest is all the way up and he tells me “we will just leave this up ok” I told him no sir, we are not going to leave it up. He complained that he would be uncomfortable, and I replied “what does that have to do with ME?” He got the message and squashed the armrest down. He still bulged over into my seat, but it was fun to hear him grumble.

Comment by ahansen
2008-05-23 10:22:58
‘I learned my stylistic nuance from that HBB literary master, Olympiagal.
And yes, in the name of scientific inquiry I did. With a ruler and a MagicMarker.
At home. In my spare time.’

Well, you clearly just think you’re bettern me, simply because you can find your bum and a ruler all at the same time. And also a MagicMarker.
I’m here to tell you that I can do that too, sometime! Any minute now, even.

I works best when it’s raining out. And you’re really, really bored.

Oh dear god, more carry on bags and other shizzle to deal with once airlines start charging for checked bags.

I have to fly every month now for my job and I hate it. One flight from Auckland, NZ to LAX I was sandwiched between two hefties and spent the whole night with their elbows in my side. Some of these people need two seats.

It’s amazing how much stuff people bring. I can fit a weeks worth of stuff in my North Face backpack. Have a good time down in the land of heat and sun.

I have witnessed people throwing clothes away to avoid paying the $50 overweight bag fee.

“You actually check bags when you fly?”

With the long list of items TSA won’t allow in carry-on, you’re almost forced to check a bag even if you could get by with a single carry-on bag. Maybe the next administration will finally roll back some of the more egregious and totally unnecessary TSA “security” measures.

“Have a good time down in the land of heat and sun.”

Thanks. Never been to S. America before, so I’m looking forward to it, even though my mom and about a dozen people at work expressed varying degrees of “be careful or you might get kidnapped/killed/robbed/etc.” From what i hear, Cartegena is beautiful and mostly safe.

“With the long list of items TSA won’t allow in carry-on, you’re almost forced to check a bag even if you could get by with a single carry-on bag.”

I can usually make do without most of the stuff they restrict, and if I can’t I just buy it at my destination. The level of crap they give me when I try to get my samurai sword through security it admittedly a little annoying though…

“Sitting in first class is nice but is it worth the extra hassles?”

Yes.

When offered a $150 upgrade to first class I take it. I make a meager five figure income, but I can’t take the suffering anymore in cattle class and I’m more than willing to shell out for an upgrade.

Who comes up with these genius ideas?
Ceo/mgmnt .
Mid mgmnt. Brownnosers. Ppl getting the bonuses while laying off others.

Lost,
I’ve got a cool metal Athena model sitting on the table near my computer. My Dad headed some of the Athena project(s) in Green River in the late 60’s. I visited the site (White Sands Missle Range) a few times as a kid.

What I remember most is the “tee box and green with desert in-between” (as it was called) that some of the guys put in on their off hours. They got a deal on a used green “mower” and within about 6 months they had the nicest looking “patch of green” you could imagine.

It was surreal to see this “oddity” out in the middle of nothing but miles and miles of scrub desert and some typical drab Government buildings. I found it much more interesting at the time than the missles and launchers that, as a child of a military contract nomad, had become something of a common sight to me.

Hey, that’s awesome, I’ve been trying to locate some of those guys, is he still around? If you want, email me on my website address (click on my handle). Also, if you go to my website and select Gallery, I have a slideshow of the old missile site, also of Green River showing the Athena. Fun.

PS It’s under the Utah section.

PPS Send me that model, I NEED it!!!! Bad!!!!

Capitol Reef dreaming.. tommy Emmanuel sound. COOL.

Thanks! Awesome place.

Especially down here in S Alabama where the summer temps get up to 112 humid degrees…

Buh-bye open floor plans?

Hey, Colorado, I’ve wondered if house styles make a difference in tornadoes. IOW, would an open floorplan create a bigger pressure differential during a twister? Would your big McMansion be more likely to eat it than your smaller lower-to-the-ground 60s type house with more walls?

Fortunately, vaulted ceilings have been out of fashion around here for quite a while. I wouldn’t want one (nor a fireplace) for the reason you note. Assuming R-30 on top, I like 9′ ceilings, 10′ would be tolerable - with good-quality fans. What I see more and more in new houses here is 10′ in the “common” areas and MBR, and 8′ elsewhere in the house. That, and zoned a/c or split units.

Ok–I’m late to post–vaulted ceilings are not a heating/cooling problem in homes that are properly constructed. But more than 99% of homes are not built correctly. To ensure low heating/cooling, you should build to the energy star spec… and have it inspected and pressure tested…

For some reason, the Fed seems to favor the OFHEO numbers over the ones that show really big housing price deflation…

The reaper is the great equalizer.

Here’s cynical: it wouldn’t make any difference.

a very tired line of commie lib bs which will not fool anyone other than your loonytoons base

Same old flawed policies, same old flawed rhetoric. When one can’t refute the assertions, they always lean on the same old boogeymen….

Good job.

McCain mentions not letting Bush’s tax cuts expire, but he’s not really behind it.

a very tired line of commie lib bs which will not fool anyone other than your loonytoons base

cue lots of air time devoted to ads of John McCain morphing into GWB…footage of McCain yukking it up with GW, there you don’t have to guess. I’ve outlined the upcoming dem campaign.

Creative!

(all rendered in grainy black and white of course. ooh…scary)

Obama’s baseball cap morphing into a turban…..

Correction
That’s all right, i am a moderate democrat.

Sorry

You mean really fat people all vote Republican?

I agree, good post.

Anyone else out there like spam, eggs, and rice for breakfast? Being Hawaiian born, I love it, even McD’s there has it on the menu, but I guess it’s an acquired taste since my Son turns his nose up at it.

My mom used to make a spam, rice, and peas casserole when I was little (money was very tight back then). I actully loved it. In fact, was feeling nostalgic not too long ago and asked her to make it for me!

My dogs LOVE spam, but I won’t let them eat it.

Cue up the Monty Python…the vikings singing spam..spam..spam..everytime the waitress reads the menu (everything with spam) - a classic.

I read somewhere that according to cannibals Spam tastes the most like humans compared to any other meat.

This is the sort of trashy literature I enjoy. That and stormwater regulation manuals–good stuff!

You should talk to Lad, he just went to New Guinea (he thinks he was in New Zealand, but some of his posts suggested otherwise). That’s where the major headhunters were, if I remember my anthro classes right.

Spam musubi. Mmmmmmm.

That would be tough. I have eaten haggis several times over the years, while listening to recitations of Robert Burns poetry. Of course, the single malt made it all go down easy.

roses like humidland, but need sun

kow = knoww

flippin’ keyboard

(this could go on forever)… kowww = know

flippin =

Great!!! BTW, my 19 year old niece is a certified welder. makes good money.

Mmmmm bar b q! You’re upping the ante there lost!

unfortunately it is more complicated; I think the US is experimenting now with algae or cyanobacteria in salt marshes (if that is the correct word?) for biofuel. In my area in the Netherlands there is some talk about developing special algae farming technology using salty ponds just behind the dikes. I think the technology is not there yet, too many problems; they need to work on the input and output side to prevent environmental problems. But it could get interesting in 10-20 years.

“From about May - October of ‘02 there was a series of declines that shocked even me.”

What we’re lacking is a “Global Rouge Event” … but I’m convinced by Sir Greenspent’s argument & belief… that there is simply to much: “Highly Educated” “Financial Innovation” to possibly allow for anything such event to happen…it’s “impossible” & in “conceivable” in our lifetimes…now get back to trading stocks like there’s NO tomorrow.

practicing her ‘innocent’ face

The Clintons have been doing that for decades. I don’t have hard numbers, but anectdotally I’m convinced that people who fall under the umbrella of “clinton associate” have a higher than normal “mysterious death” rate.