Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For May 26, 2008
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Looks like a rainy holiday for grilling in the Heartland.
Wonder what the economic environment will be for Memorial Day in 2009?
That depends on what president McCain decides to do.
I suspect that the next President will have very little effect on the course of economic events for the next five years.
The only question is how well people will cope with those events, and will the future continue to be sold out, thus affecting the following five years.
Agreed. Whoever is the next president regardless as to what happens, he or she will be a single term president because its always who is currently in office who gets blamed for the economic sh!t that hits the fan while they are in office. If McCain gets elected he will be the next Herbert Hoover, the rape-ublican party will then be disenfranchised for the long term. If Ob(s)ama or Hi(t)llary get elected then the Demorats will be blamed despite all the evidence that it was “W” (Du(m)bya) who set the economy on its current downward trajectory. If the Demorats do win, and a sufficient portion of the electorate still links this mess to the rape-ublicans then there is hope for a true candidate of change in the form of a third party candidate in 2012. That is the best hope America has for a viable future that removes us from the potential of becoming a member of the banana republics.
Yeah, you can get a great 3rd party candidate in there like Jesse Ventura. That was really a f-cking stroke of jenius. It’s not a 3rd party candidate that is needed. It is a solid 3rd party that is needed. It must be able to state its beliefs in a clear and simple way. It must reflect the realities of the 21st century. Neither of these dogs we currently have can do that. If the third party is just a collection of misfits then it won’t do anybody any good, any way.
But it’s definitely gonna take leadership to craft a 3rd party message and provide some confidence that supporters aren’t just pissin into the wind. The problem has never been a lack of willing members… it’s simply that pragmatism just ain’t sexy. A potential 3rd party needs a pseudo-heroic figure with a lot of charisma. Someone to whom people will gravitate while being assaulted with promises of grandeur from the right and left. Unfortunatetely, history tells us that most such leaders are prone to unsettling tendencies… like megalomania and genocide.
I don’t know about third parties. A two party system keeps politicians playing to the middle which is what we want. If you put in a slightly right or slightly left leaning third party it allows the party on the otherside to swing more toward extremes. There’s no perfect system.
If McCain gets elected he will be the next Herbert Hoover, the rape-ublican party will then be disenfranchised for the long term. If Ob(s)ama or Hi(t)llary get elected then the Demorats will be blamed despite all the evidence that it was “W” (Du(m)bya) who set the economy on its current downward trajectory.
Sorry as easy as it is to blame G.W. I must say the ‘downward’ trajectory started way,way before the current President. The straw that broke the camels back was a fellow named Richard Millhouse Nixson.
I would have said Lyndon B. Johnson.
A two party system keeps politicians playing to the middle which is what we want.
Right, because:
1) There are exactly two sides to every issue.
2) The existing parties don’t essentially agree on most issues.
3) The platforms of the existing parties actually make sense.
I’ve exhausted my sarcasm.
“I don’t know about third parties. A two party system keeps politicians playing to the middle which is what we want. If you put in a slightly right or slightly left leaning third party it allows the party on the otherside to swing more toward extremes. There’s no perfect system.”
Our two parties have been bought by the middle eastern PACs. With a multi-party system, the PACs wouldn’t be able to buy all of them, too expensive.
Sorry as easy as it is to blame G.W. I must say the ‘downward’ trajectory started way,way before the current President. The straw that broke the camels back was a fellow named Richard Millhouse Nixson.
Abraham Lincoln.
The problem is that usually the third party is not a real party. They are dependent on the charismatic leader of the hour, and fall apart without one. Perot took people from the GOP who wandered back in after all the brouhaha was over and they realized they still wanted to stay active. How many Reform Party central committees ever formed, and where are they now?
Parties may seem useless to non-party people (and are aggravating to their own members), but when people decide they want to run for office that’s where they gravitate, because the party people know how it’s done, where to get the signs, what printer to trust, who usually donates $$$, and can provide just plain ol’ networking and moral support.
“Our two parties have been bought by the middle eastern PACs. With a multi-party system, the PACs wouldn’t be able to buy all of them, too expensive.”
Don’t bet on it. Some of the most corrupt countries have multi party systems.
Its not the two party system. Its campaign finance (read–institutionalized corruption). There are 35000 lobbyists for 535 congressmen (and thats just washington). Take money out of the equation, problem solved.
“Don’t bet on it. Some of the most corrupt countries have multi party systems. Its not the two party system. Its campaign finance (read-institutionalized corruption). There are 35000 lobbyists for 535 congressmen (and thats just washington). Take money out of the equation, problem solved.“
Yeah, OK, agreed.
IMO, what fool would want to be the next president? it seems to me that to be the president one has to sell his soul to the devil. it is very obvious that we don’t have free economic markets, our health care system is broken not to mention the housing industry. It seems like the honest people will get to pay the bills for the crooks having their 15 minutes of fame.
America can have 3, 4, 5 parties or more,
we get the leaders we deserve. This is the American Idol generation and Brittnay Spears rules the world.
Ted Kennedy has been in the Senate forever, and now this town drunk is considered a great statesman. This is the perfect case for a 2nd rate government, because that’s what Americans want
Yep. People are stupid. Some even see Hi!!ary C!inton as some sort of savior. Unbelievable!
“America can have 3, 4, 5 parties or more, we get the leaders we deserve. This is the American Idol generation and Brittnay Spears rules the world.”
The main issue is empire, the middle east and who controls it. The American economy and housing are side shows compared to the middle east. The middle eastern PACs control most of our news networks, and Joe Sixpack doesn’t subscribe to The Economist. The countries surrounding the Holy Land are getting rich on oil profits, and they’ll be more able to support destabilizing and terror operations, so America will have to cough-up even more money to counter despite being mired with a deteriorating economy and legions of dependent citizens.
BTW, the American Idol generation are too obese for military duty.
As I see it, American tend to mis-identify figureheads as centers of power and agents of change. In reality, the recent role of the U.S. President has been reduced to the level of a sock puppet. Do you hate the the sock puppet with the “red” sewn-on button eyes? Then, vote for the sock puppet with the “blue” sewn-on button eyes in November. Do you feel better now? The puppet masters (the PTB) thought you would.
Now - who or what is REALLY responsible for the dramatic decline of the American manufacturing base, the American dollar, the American savings rate, and the American economy over the last 8 years?
Bush and the Republicans? Partly. The full answer is -
70 years of largely Democratically controlled Congresses abandoning fiscal responsibility generally; the last 8 years of Republican abandonment of fiscal responsibility especially; the failure of the American public to recognize the inherent risks of fiat currency combined with deficit spending; the autonomy of the Federal Reserve since 1913; the recent concentration of ownership of the MSM and entertainment industries; the rise of China and India as consumer economies; and the failure of the American public to insist upon rational energy, immigration, and entitlement polices for the last 40 years.
The wave of anti-intellectualism currently sweeping the campuses, airwaves, and internet, blaming BUSHBOTS, REPUKES, and NEOCONS for what ails us is lamentably predictable and destructive. Neither Hillary, Obama, or McCain ever had, or will have, the solutions, answers, or ability to implement them. The national “will” is too divided. The candidates currently are bought and paid for by special interests. Only when the impoverishment of the American middle class reaches the level where Joe Six-Pack
figures he has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO LOSE can the national “will” support the fascist demagogue that will arise out of the economic chaos to come.
President McCain would give tax breaks to his buddies, and keep spending like a drunken sailor. He has already admitted that he knows nothing about the economy. Obama is correct in that this will be Bush’s third term.
Yeah, but how will electing Obama not also be a Bush third term? In fact, they are all different, only the same.
McCain will be sucking his lunch through a straw in a assisted living nursing home mumbling “100 years” next year spook
Mikey, ya just made my day. But before that can happen, we have to watch the whole Weekend at Bernie’s show a while longer.
Went to the First Season Main Event Out Door MotorCross event in Glen Helen somewhere in the Inland Empire in CA. You get there by driving until you are almost to Hell, just East of LA then turn right.
Big signs with Vote for Ron Paul! I thought Ron Paul might even show up there were so many signs for him.
Many tatoos, much beer drinking and cussing. Maybe the unwashed masses are starting to wake up?
There may be hope yet!
Hey, I was in a very very redneck part of Utarr the other day, I mean junky trailers, junk strewn everywhere, coal miners, and I saw a Ron Paul sign in a yard. Sort of surprised me, as I’d just been accosted at the local espresso shop in the same town by a hippy-lookin’ dude asking for matches (sorry) so he could light a pipe, and he was giving out RP flyers.
Maybe he lives out there, that was his place…nah, they’d tar and feather him. I dunno - anymore, the rednecks are the dopers, so go figure. (Not saying RP supporters are dopers, I just got sidetracked here a bit…)
One of the headline stories from the Milwaukee Journal this Memorial Day.
Need for food stamps rising
Weak economy, changes to state program increase enrollment nearly 10%
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=754872
Why is it that when a man is too old for any other kind of work he then becomes “A Statesman” and eligible to become President of the United States? A McCain presidency frightens me. My mother and stepmother both had Alzheimer’s and the first symptom they both had was a violent temper, blowing up over nothing, which I hear of McCain. He also seems to have no plan except to carry on the Bush economics, which in itself seems a form of senility. It was so successful, right? Not that I have any love for the other two candidates. I’m one of those Ron Paul nutcases.
It is bright and sunny in NYC, even if the attitudes aren’t. We went to Long Island yesterday. It is amazing how many times I heard people make little comments about the economy being bad, prices being down, real estate being hard to sell. This is all said without any prompting from me. But of course, people then act like it will all just bounce right back. I think that will be the change on Memorial Day 2009. People will no longer be thinking that everything will just bounce right back.
“…people then act like it will all just bounce right back.”
That’s why now seems so much like the “phony war” phase of all this.
I’m going to visit some old friends and pay my respects out at the local National Cemetery.
One of them was a doorgunner in Nam and I was a grunt. He is buried in a small valley with a really nice maple tree to his back near the Civil War Veterans with their silent cannons and he frequently argues with them about who fought in the dumbest war.
“said good-bye to his Momma
as he left South Dakota
to fight for the Red, White and Blue
he was 19 and green
with a new M-16
just doin’ what he had to do
” 8th of November” by Big and Rich
These Wars, their arguements, parades, politicains and the Flags…they’re all FRIGGING NUTS !
Regardless of who is right and the price of gasoline…I will still come home at the end of the day with that big empty feeling.
Mikey’s Prayer for Today..”Screw ALL the people that start these stupid and senseless wars.”
Later
I doubt people ever called “The Great Depression” by it’s namesake until after it was over. Just like modern recessions, denial isn’t in short supply.
I imagine that depressions are quite a bit like bubbles — hard to clearly discern until they are history…
You must be joking. Just talk to someone who lived through the 30’s. Or read “The Grapes of Wrath”.
From what I’ve read, the depression was denied by many through 1929 and 1930, perhaps later? The Dust Bowl probably helped people realize they had a national crisis on their hands, but even that started slowly and lasted for years.
The beginning of the Dust Bowl was thought to be an anomaly, perhaps like the inaction around Lakes Mead and Powell running low today. We won’t know if this is a depression or a major water crisis until we’re deep in it.
Nothing was hard to discern about this bubble. It was glaringly obvious years ago.
NYCityBoy,
Did you resist the temptation of saying “I told you so?”.
I kept my mouth shut. I just drank beer and played with the kids. It was too beautiful out to get into any arguments. You would have been as shocked as my wife was.
what a difference a few summers makes huh?
think back to summer 2005 and all the land barrons talking about their newly minted millions
now it is all about the cost of gas and cutbacks at the office
i know nycboy was secretly grinning inside
Whoa. Talk about a shocker.
You didn’t flip them the bird?
WOW!
i agree nycboy
everywhere you go now all you hear about how bad the economy is and how people are struggling
well thanks to this blog i was not caugth by surprise and have prepared well.
i am working a 2nd job on saturdays now not because i have to
but becuase i am young and can do it, plus the money is pretty good.
i am ramping up my savings to possibly purchase a place
in the next year or so if it makes sense
doing it because i want to and not because i have to is a totally different animal
yes the price of gas has gone up alot and so have food prices but if you are a smart cookie you can reduce your bills by shopping smartly
but how many americans shop intelligently?
plus in the market this morning all that is on sale is the really fattening crap food, the good stuff is expensive
but is amazing how much $ you can save by cooking and not eating out as much
I agree..hubby and I shop at Costco and stock up the freezer in the garage for 2 weeks worth of meats. leftovers are lunch everyday since we both work at home(huge gas saver), buy one get one free is a easy stock up(especially with the coupons huge savings..)..
If people really took the time to “smart shop” they could save themselves huge amounts of money..our neighbor asked us how we can afford the SUV we have..I told him 1)We bought it for cash so no car payments(have to have it with the kids sports too much equipment) 2) we work at home..so other than getting the kids around for sports and school pickup we don’t use the SUV 3)We shop smart and that money goes towards gas..so even though gas is going up our cost of running the suv has stayed the same or less..
Promotional Models Needed in Long Island City (Long Island City)
Reply to: gigs-695364493@craigslist.org
Date: 2008-05-26, 10:23AM EDT
Manhattan marketing company looking to hire local promotional models for an ongoing promotion in Long Island City. Need 2 girls every Saturday and Sunday from May 30 to August 30 to hand out promotional materials and plans for a new luxury development company building in Long Island City. $25 an hour, and would be 12-4 every Saturday and Sunday.
Would love to hire a group of 4 girls who could trade off weekends. Easy $100 a day.
Please respond with a picture and previous promotional experience. Thank you!
Hail in PBC, rain in Broward, flash storms in Dade.
“Wonder what the economic enviornment will be for Memorial Day in 2009?”
My guess is: Not good.
IMO The Great Unwind, whose effects are being masked until after the November election, will pick up steam and become The Great Unpleasantness and will visit us with the force of a Catgory 5 SHTF.
“The Great Unpleasantness”
It’s official; I love it. All in favor say, “yea.” Combotechie = re-brand of the year.
Right-O! It’s very P.C. and it won’t scare the children!
I kind of prefer the sh-t storm one, but you are right. It is too harsh to get branded. The Great Unpleasantness it is.
Also, perhaps we need a “year of” designation. The Year of the Saver? The Year of the Renter? Others?
Year of the Comeuppance
AK-LA,
Ohh…I love yours. Much better. Wonderful. And it works well because it doesn’t imply that it is really the start or the end - just the moment when it all became obvious to everyone. Year of the Comeuppance it is.
Thanks for the smile.
I agree, a sh*t storm is on the horizon.
I still, to this day, talk to people who think this is just another
small speed bump.
I’m going to have a hard time feigning compassion when these
people suddenly smell the coffee.
Mike
“Wonder what the economic environment will be for Memorial Day in 2009?” (As Opposed To The Political Environment, which has been discussed pretty thoroughly)
I think that Neg-Ams will rule the front pages. If you look at CR’s chart of mortgage re-sets, it is the Option ARMs that begin rolling over in increasing numbers at the end of 2009. I think it won’t matter much the extent to which the Fed or the Banks fiddle with interest rates — when all that negative amortization trigger all the Dracula clauses in the papers the FBs signed, all of a sudden full interest has to be paid and in addition contributions to principal. Virtually all FBs will be nervous about their mortgages from here on out, so they are likely to panic many months before the sub-primers did and try to sell out or renegotiate. Wonder how that works: FB borrows $420K on a $400K house so he can get in with nothing down. At re-set time, he owes $520K and the house is worth $300K if he’s lucky.
Yeah, I think Memorial Day 2009 will be very interesting in terms of our economic environment. The talking heads will be marveling about how they were blindsided about the extent of deflation and how far into the tank the economy is headed. HBBers will watch all this with amused, but intense, interest. Ben Jones will be a hot item on the talk circuit.
Chip you are right on the money! I think that the luxury market will be the big hit with the NEG AM loans..too many million dollar McMansions bought with those..Hey you can buy a $1.5 million dollar home and your payment is only 3k a month! The panic button will start soon and I already see it happening with million dollar communities that still have the builders building while the resale signs are starting to grow…when you look up the mortgage you see the same situation each time..purchase with little to no money down.. followed within 3 months of the purchase with a equity line equal too or greater than downpayment…
What I find interesting is that the realtors REFUSE to advertise in MLS that it is a short sale or a PRE-Foreclosure..even till the very end the “Joneses” want to save face!! How many will sneak out in the middle of the night…
“Wonder what the economic environment will be for Memorial Day in 2009?”
I think we all agree that it will be pretty bad. I’m not sure if we will see this as soon as 2009, but I keep wondering what will happen when a lot of the 78 million Boomers discover that :
1.Their house is worth 1/3 to 1/2 of what they owe.
2.Their pensions are gone (due to fund investments in MBS).
3. Their 401Ks went away with the (future) market crash.
4. They have lost their job & are too old to get another one that pays a living wage.
5. They have no health care, but are not yet old enough for Medicare (younger Boomers under 65.)
I think it could get pretty ugly when the “Me” generation loses what they thought they had. Will they revert to their 60’s roots and protest in mass?
Yesterday, we saw This house in Garden Grove, CA. Someone bought this home for $599,500 last year. It is now REO as of May 5, 2008. And went on the market for $324,900 last week. So, in 14 months the price dropped 46%! Granted, the city is not the most desired city in the OC, but the neighborhood seemed normal (rather well maintained, no bars on the windows, etc.).
However, the home itself would require a lot of work before it’s move in ready (like no stove, kitchen sink plumbing is missing, kitchen cabinets need to be replaced, needs new paint inside and outside, all windows need to be replaced, dead grass at front and back, for starters).
So, the prices are dropping here in the OC, but there is much to be desired when it comes to the quality of the homes (so far)…
I’d like a peek at your covenants:
Owner promises to install bars when so requested by the leinholder.
Owner may not to abscond with the kitchen sink plumbing while or before entering a state of default.
Owner shall mow the lawn religiously.
Owner shall remove grafitti promptly.
Owner shall use glass for windows.
Wonder what “newer laminate” means? That the linoleum is yellow, but noy cracked in many places?
“Wonder what the economic environment will be for Memorial Day in 2009?”
It’s never been a better time to buy a new Ford F-150!
By this time next year, the general drag on the global economy will likely have curbed demand, offsetting the brief increase of US exports resulting from a weak dollar. Gas will have stabilized, but around $4.50/gal. Many of the commodity bubbles (especially PMs) will have burst taking the equity markets down with it.
It will take several months to fully unravel, but the most dramatic stock market crash won’t be in the US, but in China where uncovered fraud and deception result in capital flight that devastates the domestic economy and prompts civil unrest. The resulting chaos will disrupt Chinese manufacturing and retard economic growth.
Elsewhere, in the wake of widespread economic chaos most societies will depart from globalization and instead by controlled by nationalist fervor…
“Elsewhere, in the wake of widespread economic chaos most societies will depart from globaliozation and instead be controlled by nationialist fevor…”
History says this is the economic formula that spawns Napoleans and Hitlers.
“History says this is the economic formula that spawns Napoleans and Hitlers.”
Well, originally, it wasn’t the economy that spawned that sort of ruler in the US this time around. Although elsewhere on the globe, I did read an article in the local Sunday paper that South Africa is going nutz on immigrants and many are fleeing.
History says this is the economic formula that spawns Napoleans and Hitlers.”
What do you call GW. I wouldn’t call him Hitler but a little Napolean? and we elected him during the delusional good times.
“Well, originally, it wasn’t the economy that spawned that sort of ruler in the US this time around.”
Uh, we don’t have this sort of ruler in the US.
The type of ruler I’m thinking of is one of great charm and charisma who possesses the ability to persuade great masses of people to follow him (her) to their collective doom. This person is capable of seizing total control of the government, of demolishing any form of checks on his (her) power, of persuading the Crowd to pledge its allegiance to him (her) personally rather than to the country.
This person is always out there among us busily dominating small groups of people. When chaotic conditions prevail this person emerges from obscurity, becomes mainstream and ruthlessly expands his (her) power base until total control is achieved.
But this power is not enough - no amount of power is enough - thus he (she) will forever expand his (her) control until he (she) is forcibly stopped.
IMO. FWIW.
I agree with your outlook, with one addition. There will be the rise of a “savior” to the world’s problems somewhere who will likely be not so kind in the end.
What’s scary about that is that it sounds like a Nostradamus prophecy. Which seems to be deliberately being engineered.
It also pegs the biblical antichrist prophecy to a t. Not the antichrist label that gets thrown at various people from time to time as an epithet, but the original description from scripture.
As combotechie, said, FWIW. I don’t dwell there, we just need to go on living our lives and take reasonable precautions against what might be. This is a really interesting thread, with some good food for thought.
And, oh yeah, the next pres is absolutely a one-termer. That’s the only thing I feel is certain. Pick your poison.
There will be the rise of a “savior” to the world’s problems somewhere who will likely be not so kind in the end.
“Been there, done that” for the past 8 years.
The Shanghai index is already off well over 40% from its peak. How many average citizens do you think have been wiped out? I would guess a ton of them. How many well connected greedy pricks have been wiped out? I would guess none. I think the boys at the top will do just fine, even if they have to aim a tank at somebody.
This morning’s conversation is so depressing that I’m already dipping into my emergency Jack stash. I was hoping to wait until at least noon.
What average citizen? Please do not tell me sane people on this site are so naive to think that average RPC citizen is invested into PRC stock market?
The average middle-class, i.e. urban, citizen is. There have been lots of news reports on this subject. Note that these people represent all of the discretionary spending power in the PRC, apart from the rich of course.
at least the Chinese are not investing with huge leverage, like the US middle class. And most of them are investing real savings, also quite a difference with the US.
As I recall someone once told me:
When China gets in trouble, it has a history of having a war with someone. Wars keep the PTB in power.
Im going to say India. Both countrys leaders thing they have excess population.
All regimes are tempted by quick wars that will allow them to look strong. Often times, it does not work out that way.
Orlando bankruptcies escalate, topping 1,000 in April
More people than ever are filing for Chapter 7 protection.
, the slumping real estate market and credit crunch drove scores of construction workers, mortgage brokers and real estate agents into bankruptcy. And now, truckers are lining up to file for insolvency, weighed down by rising fuel prices.
“There are just a lot of people hurting out there,” says Chapter 7 bankruptcy trustee Emerson Noble, an Orlando accountant who now spends almost all his time handling bankruptcy cases.
Orlando’s business and personal bankruptcy filings continued to escalate in April, reaching 1,030, compared with just 485 for the same month last year. In fact, filings have increased month over month since January’s 744 filings, reaching 827 in February and 984 in March.
So far this year, there have been 3,585 business and personal bankruptcy filings, compared with 1,783 for the first four months of 2007.
http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2008/05/26/story10.html?ana=from_rss
The first question they should ask every “victim” is, “why didn’t you save anything during the boom?” Deer meet headlights. Headlights meet deer.
“Deer meet headlights. Headlights meet deer.”
Oooh, oh, can I finish this one Orlando-style?
Contractor headed north to Asheville in F-650, bumper strikes deer, deer thrown into oncoming lane where it is struck three more times (Ted & Susan on vacation from Toledo driving their buick, “Ted, honey, what was that?”; Flo Rida in his leased Murcielago & an unidentifiable white flatbed carrying guest workers), deer leg seperates and is picked off by gator, Flo Rida swerves causing Ted & Susan to spin out in the median; Sun*Star Medic witnesses deer incident & brakes abruptly, causing the oversized ambulance to roll (no biggy, happens all the time).
I-4 closed in both directions for three hours.
“A More Affordable Version Of The American Dream” thread contained some oddity. There was an 8.5% interest person shocked by the bound up to 11.5%. They had to use “savings” to pay the rent (presumably for a few months). At least their heart was in the right place, having savings and all. And there is always driving less and borrowing from mother to survive.
the people who can go to their parents for $$ in hard times
are lucky in my book or kids (unless it is a medical type thing)
i have no such luxury and never have
i guess that is why i save my money
it builds character and responsible spending habits
And throwing good money at bad.
Mike
I wish you could buy stock in lawyers. Talk about a hedge against anything.
Isn’t that what you’re really doing when you buy a financial stock anyway?
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/local_news/epaper/2008/05/15/0515deliquenttaxes.html
Delinquent property taxes up by 83% in past two years
More than 42,000 property owners did not pay their 2007 tax bills by the April 1 deadline. They must pay off the debt before June 1 or the county will auction off a tax certificate on the property.
About 23,000 failed to pay their 2005 bills on time, the tax collector’s office said.
“The fact that we are seeing (tax delinquencies) surge is just a reflection of the fact that people are falling behind,” said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter. “Whether it is foreclosures or home prices, every indicator you look at is really telling the same story. We are in this deep housing slump.”
Faced with the rising cost of gasoline and groceries, families are having a difficult time deciding which bill to pay first. Many are choosing to hold off on property tax payments to pay their mortgages and other bills, said Jack McCabe, president of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach.
Many adjustable-rate loans do not require that the homeowner to put a portion of the property tax bill into escrow with their monthly mortgage payment. Fifty percent of the residential mortgages issued in Florida since 2004 have adjustable rates, McCabe said.
This property tax situation is dangerous. Too many state and local gov’ts had precarious finances before this even started. Buying into one those locales like FL, CA, or the big northern cities seems really risky for years to come - unless of course one likes to pay a little extra in the way of taxes (read: a potential stealth bailout). After all, it does take a municipality.
john, the local Sunday Tampa Tribune had an article about city and county government selling advertising in public places to offset revenue loss. So, instead of going to the Tampa Museum, it’ll be Jake’s Jockstraps Museum.
That is an ongoing process. We used to name stadiums after the men and women that fought and died for this country. Now we name them for banks, orange juice and job search companies. Some call it progress. Of course some people call themselves “progressives” that I wouldn’t trust cleaning my toilet. Progress ain’t all it’s cracked up to be.
“Now we name them for banks, orange juice and job search companies.”
Monster Stadium? (after Monster.com)
Alas, yet another sign that we are not dealing with a fundamentally sound economy.
edgewatejohn: it does take a municipality
A lot of areas in Florida especially “spent” the money they projected to get from all those taxpayers who will live in all those new condos they’re building.
Now that all these condos are half-empty, they’re having severe shortfalls…
Other areas actually built new schools to meet the projected demand from all the new housing units that went up. Even in 2004-2005 I laughed at this. People in Florida were selling these condos to each other! There were no new families with kids coming to live in them! A few schools have already been closed. Florida school enrollment is down from projected numbers, for example:
http://www.flapolitics.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1618
Many adjustable-rate loans do not require that the homeowner to put a portion of the property tax bill into escrow with their monthly mortgage payment.
Can someone explain why that is? Who sets the requirement for fixed-rate loans?
At any rate, paying taxes through escrow is a bad idea. First, the escrow requirements are more than the actual bill. Second, houseownazz ought to see the actual bill firsthand - instead of this “howmuchamonth” b.s. that only serves to help inflate taxes - just as it helped inflate house prices.
Well, as it was explained to me by my McMansion owning boss (he recently downsized from 850k to %650k), the taxes on the $850k monster would have been over 20k per year. Can’t have that much money sitting on the sidelines dreawing no interest, no siree.
Noticed that whoever the $850 gated McMansion was sold to lost it after 6 months.
On a totally unrelated thought. How bad an idea is it to bid on a property tax certificate for your bosses house? I mean, would it be seen as an expression of hope and confidence, or…?
Or contempt for the boss?
Talk to a real estate lawyer. There might be a way to do it without your name appearing on the documentation.
My last mortgage was like that and I was shocked. It was with a CU that was just then jumping in to the mortgage biz. So maybe this is just another characteristic of the frenzy - wanting to cash in without going through all the bureaucratic hassles that the old-school lenders insisted on.
It worked out okay (I had it paid off quickly anyway) but I can see where FBs could easily get behind.
I believe that when we bought an ARM in the late 90s, Taxes and Insurance were escrowed, even with 20pct down.
The first time we got notes these hadn’t been paid and that the notes had been sold and our insurance was canceled, we did everything we could to never ever have the mortgage holder “take care” of it for us. Had to argue on our first refi, in 2001; after that no one blinked.
And yeah, even in a CD, at least the money is doing something though not so much anymore.
>>“The fact that we are seeing (tax delinquencies) surge is just a reflection of the fact that people are falling behind,”
Good thinking, Dobie.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2008/05/23/0523homesales.html
The typical home price in Palm Beach County tripled from 2000 to 2005, even as incomes climbed only modestly. But have values returned to realistic levels?
“I think prices have probably declined enough,” Cooper said. “With property taxes coming down, and if we have another year of no hurricanes, I think we’ll be looking at maybe a flat year and then prices beginning to climb next year. I hope people take another look at Florida and see that the economics are starting to make sense.”
Others aren’t so optimistic. Jack McCabe, a consultant in Deerfield Beach, said home prices still are steep compared with incomes in Palm Beach County and a flood of foreclosures will hurt values. He expects the median price in Palm Beach County to fall as low $260,000.
“We’re going to see a few false bottoms over the next two or three years,” McCabe said. “I keep telling people it’s not going to get better before 2010.”
Nationally, the median price of a previously owned home fell 8 percent from April of last year, the National Association of Realtors said.
Realtors insist that falling prices are beginning to lure reluctant buyers.
“These prices are becoming very appealing to buyers — they’re not going to keep dropping indefinitely,” said John Mike, chairman of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.
Ok. Then I wonder if “Pat Cooper, president of First Bank of the Palm Beaches in West Palm Beach” is willing to open the checkbooks and start lending 100% or more to buyers at these prices.
Put your bank’s money where your mouth is or shut up.
And incomes are coming down. Politicians complain about a descending spiral and they would have a point if they were just dealing with an expectation of lower prices that was going to bring prices below prices in [some random date allegedly before the bubble started]. But that isn’t the only problem. You are dealing with incomes going down and disposable income (after food and gas to get to work and basic health care) going down even more.
Reality is a hard pill to swallow.
My grandfather served. He’d be really pissed about all of this boo-hoo-I-can’t-help-myself nonsense. After the army, he drove railroad spikes for Norfolk & Southern until he dropped dead.
As Kunstler said, if we’re going to ask our children to die for us, we should be building something worth preserving.
“As Kunstler said, if we’re going to ask our children to die for us, we should be building something worth preserving.”
We’re not asking our children to die for us. Our government is asking our children to die for oil companies and military contractors.
“We’re not asking our children to die for us. Our government is asking our children to die for oil companies and military contractors.”
C’mon, man, you know what I meant.
I general,I loathe the NYTimes, but today, Memorial Day, I agree with their editorial. The new G.I. Bill, crafted by Jim Webb and Chuck Hagel, both combat vets, would give decent training and education benefits to returning vets. Bush and McCain want to kill it…they prefer putting cheap,made in China American flags on the graves of the dead instead.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/26/opinion/26mon1.html?hp
I sure do, Muggy, it wasn’t meant as a dig at you. Have a great Memorial Day Weekend in this Tampa Bay paradise!
Palmetto, perhaps we can start a new Memorial Day tradition: we meet at Fort De Soto Beach and fire guns at each other.
Sound good?
You do know that hyperbole is a figure of speach that uses exaggeration to express strong feelings, but isn’t intended to be taken seriously.
Oh yeah, you already Godwinized this thread higher up there.
While its evident that things are looking pretty bleak economically and the war in Iraq totally sucks, in what other country can someone work hard, and with a little luck, end up with more moeny than they can spend? Do i need to list the people that have done this in the US?
I will tell you about one businessman that moved from Iowa with one truck, a bunch of tools, and started a business here in AZ repairing diesel trucks. 15-20 years later his company owns over 250 heavy duty trucks and he employs over 300 employee. He had nothing, now he has whatever he wants. Did the government give it to him? No, but our government allowed him to do it and basically got out of the way.
In the same way all of us have the opportunity to do the same thing. So yes, our country is worth sacrificing for. WE ARE FREE.
Do we like that fact that sometimes our military is asked to go to war? No, but in my way of thinking this war started on 9-11 and if you look at history the Islamo fasciasts were attacking us on an ever increasing basis in frequency and in severity. Yet now, after we starting attacking them in Afganistan and Iraq, they’re being drawn into the killing fields of Iraq and they haven’t had the ability to launch an attack in the US.
Therefore I choose to thank the soldiers that volunteered to serve. When I get the chance I tell them “thank you” because I know many of them could’ve been doing a number of other things. Without their “sacrifice” Yahoos like y’all wouldn’t be allowed to spout off about how terrible this country in.
In conclusion, I think we should all remember why this day is called Memorial Day. We should remember their sacrifice and tell them “Thank You” every time we get the chance.
Lip, wonderful sentiment on a day of remembrance. Thank you.
“”Do we like that fact that sometimes our military is asked to go to war? No, but in my way of thinking this war started on 9-11 and if you look at history the Islamo fasciasts were attacking us on an ever increasing basis in frequency and in severity. Yet now, after we starting attacking them in Afganistan and Iraq, they’re being drawn into the killing fields of Iraq and they haven’t had the ability to launch an attack in the US.”"
Started on 9/11 - It started well before 9/11 but Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 and Sadam was hated by Al Quida and Iran our two greatest enemies. The war in Iraq has helped Al Quida and Iran financially and in regards to recruiting and propaganda. Iran has felt emboldened to continue with their nuclear program knowing the US is bogged down. The rise in oil prices alone created by military consumption the loss of Iraqi production and the instability in the middle east combined with our governments complete lac of an energy policy has been one of the greatest disasters of all time for the US. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela have all been made stronger while the US has fallen in financially, in terms of military readiness, and in terms of stature.
I love the word killing fields. There is no shortage of cannon foder for Al Queda to recruit. We would have been far better off taxing gas to 5 bucks a gallon after 9/11 and using the procedes along with the wasted dollars in Iraq to cut our consumption of oil. Tax gas and immediately return the money to the purchaser in the form of an incentive to cut energy use. We could have pushed other consuming countries to double there efforts. Oil would cost a lot less and Iran would be bankrupt.
Right on Measton, There are no winners among those who wage wars. They all lose. We have lost big time and your point that others are getting stronger is very important. Good call.
Most Americans have a world view that terrorism started on 9/11. The “islamo-facists” which were armed and trained with american money to wage war in Afghanistan,India suddenly became the bad guys that day. Until that day they were “freedom fighters”.
“Yahoos like y’all wouldn’t be allowed to spout off ”
If it were not for this blog, I’d have serious doubts about our nation’s future. This is singled-handedly the best crowd ever assembled on the net that I’ve seen; the kind of healthy debate worth defending. Yahoos not so much.
Lip,
I think everyone here loves their country.
I know I do. But I absolutely hate what we have become and where we are headed.
These poor soldiers are just pawns used by the elite. What is being done is criminal.
I just watched ‘Flags of our Fathers’ last night. WWII was a legitimate war. I have heard that we antagonized the JA-PAN Co.
into attacking us. Who knows. But every war since has been complete BS in my opinion.
Wrapping oneself with a flag doesn’t change the truth.
Ask Dubya. He’s just an idiot with a red, white, and blue blazer.
Mike
The islamo-facists didn’t start it, we started it. In 1954 the CIA ousted the democraticly elected prime minister of Iran and replaced him with the King. They did that because the prime minister wanted a national oil company instead of letting the US oil companies come in and reap profits. I can’t believe you’re celebrating the military industrial complex. Our over sized military bases over the world are draining our country’s budget. All this boogeyman in the closet scare tactics has made you a blind loyalist. Wake up.
Sorry todays military is Volunteer…so you have a choice whether to get shot at or not.
I still believe in the 60’s slogan:
“What if they gave a war and nobody came.”
That is why no one protests, no one is forced to die for their country.
———————————–
As Kunstler said, if we’re going to ask our children to die for us, we should be building something worth preserving.
Ok..been out to several places, mall, target, office depot, staples and all had one thing in common for this Memorial Weekend of great sales..DEAD,DEAD,DEAD and signs outside encouraging the “stimulus check” sales….
Was in Childrens Place picking up clothes for my son(great deals on great clothes cheap but great quality)..the girl at the register says..hey..anything going on out there in the mall I think we are the only store that isn’t busy?(only me and her in the store)…I told her I had been in several stores already and they were just like hers..she was shocked..
Pass by stores like Pottery Barn, Abercrombie and Coach..you could hear the crickets!
The only store that I usually go into is a liquor store. That seemed pretty busy on Saturday. It makes me feel good that my fellow Americans are keeping their priorities straight.
“Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life’s problems.”
“Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life’s problems.”
Make that Ethonal. I’ll take two.
the wife and i went to target yesterday
we go once a month or so to stock up on stuff
the place was pretty crowded (the aisles) but dead at the checkout counter (hmmmmmm) no wait at all
and traffic was pretty light - usually it is a traffic nightmare in this area of queens ny
most people were buying food at target as well not the
cheap chinese made crap they usually have overlfowing their carts
and btw the prices are up at least 15% and in some cases 20% on the items i was purchasing
inflation on the neccesities and low prices on the crap you do not need
In the grocery store this morning I heard one employee (looked like a manager) saying to the other how busy they were for a holiday.
I was surprised to hear this. Then again, lots of folks in Chicagoland tend to head downtown or up to Wisconsin for a long holiday weekend like this, so I regarded it as proof that gas prices were keeping people home.
Coldwell Banker did not do their usual full-color two page spread in the Tribune this weekend. Its absense is likely due to the holiday, however it did make me wonder if gas prices were discouraging folks from driving around to see open houses these days.
Came home to Chicago from Wisconsin at 5 pm, fully expecting the customary holiday weekend gridlock south of Kenosha. Traffic was so light I made it home in record time. Nobody could believe it.
You are lucky. I am in the California bay area and yesterday it was almost impossible to even find a parking spot. The consumer is all too prevalent here.
Likewise in Cleveland, supposedly depression central. Restaurants and shopping malls always crowded.
Considering no one is paying their mortgage, I would think people have a lot of disposable income these days.
Yeah, these stories about banks not taking action for a year or more are really irksome. I take it they are just hoping that this all magically disappears this year - and voodoo accounting rules only make the stalling easier.
http://www.welovealaska.com/
http://anchorage.craigslist.org/rfs/692779264.html
This is a property for sale for $549K on Craigslist, and I’m just wondering if anyone can guesstimate a price to make it worthwhile to purchase.
It is a cash-flow B&B type of place with 6 cabins and a four bedroom home. It is right along the creek with spectacular fishing.
My guess is that it needs about $200K down at the current price to make the mortgage pay for itself with a 3 month summer income of ~5K per week, assuming 80% occupancy. So I am thinking that in order for the purchase to make economic sense, it needs to drop to $350K for financing, or $420K including 20% down?
Oh yeah, property taxes are pretty low in this area…about $3K per year, from what I hear.
If you made your fortune in mainframes in the 70s, Microsoft in the 80s, travel agent in the 90s and body armor in the 2000’s, then you may just be lucky enough to continue the streak with tourism in the aught-10s.
Buying a tourism-related business is right up there with buying Hummer stock, IMO. Especially in Alaska, where you mostly have to use airplanes to get there…
Buying a B&B is what they call buying a lifestyle - work work work, kiss ass, work work work, clean clean clean, market market market, be nice whether you want to or not…
you left out “and try to get out from under it by selling to a GF.”
You’re right, my bad!
There are scarcely any RVs on the Glenn or New Seward.
Why purchase someone else’s problem? If it were making money (or if prospects for profitability were good, the ‘natural gas pipeline’ notwithsatnding) they wouldn’t be selling it.
Ben,
we are experiencing a protracted house-deflation. Meaningful wage-inflation is impossible.
What do you predict for general prices(the overall cost of “stuff”)over the next couple of years?
What do you think will happen to interest yates over the same time frame?
Ok, I have one. I was working on Friday and this customer says to me, you live on _____, right? I said yeah, he says, I saw you the other day. I said “I’m leasing one of the condo’s there” he says, “prices are coming down, one’s for sale for 299″, I said “yeah, last year someone paid 345, foolish.” He says “we paid 348″
oh.
Did you ask if he got a free bowl of soup with his hat?
went to my favourite strip bar here in miami. Man! it was bad. Fewer than 10 folks!
How much money did you make?
You are definitely feeling your oats this morning. Certainly on a roll NYCityBoy.
lol nyc boy
LOL — good one.
I go to a local Bistro, aka bar, at least 4 times a week just to clear my head or fog it and talk to some live human beings. (I use the term loosely) Nevertheless I spend most of my time writing and analyzing so at times I really just have to talk to someone about sports or whatever.
I was chatting with the owner last week and he told me he is down almost 60% yoy. After a couple of brews I went next door to the package store and bought some supplies. The guy there told me he is up 120% yoy.
People are definitely going to drink, regardless, but I guess it has come down to where and for how much.
Toss in the .10% BAC legal limit dropped to .08% BAC (dropping soon to .05%), smoking bans, police checkpoints, draconian DUI fines/sentences . . . hell, I think pretty soon we’ll all be drinking at home in front of the boob tube/computer screen.
The local TV news station the other night did a story about restaurant sales being off. The owner of one place said people not ordering appitizers or dessert. Every year for the past 4 or 5 years I go to the stable tour in Middleburg, VA. The tour is a fundraiser for a local church. While I don’t know much about horses you see some beautiful animals (also alpacas on one farm and dairy cattle) and riding demonstations and this year the hunting beagles. Always a nice day in the countryside. Noticed this year the tour was advertised on TV and the radio I think. Ticket sales must have been down. Every thanked us some much at each stopped. Seemed to be many fewer people this year. BUT never have seen so many kids. Many people skipping the more exspensive beach weekend ?
High fuel prices mean profits far off for airlines
The situation is ‘worse than 9/11,’ one analyst says
By David Koenig
ASSOCIATED PRESS
May 26, 2008
Higher fares and new fees are irritating air travelers, but airlines still can’t raise money or cut flights fast enough to cover ever-higher fuel prices.
In the view of airline executives and analysts, the industry is facing its toughest challenge yet, with little prospect that carriers can return to profits anytime soon.
Even though most of the big airline companies have large cash stockpiles, analysts suggest they could burn through their cash and go bankrupt by early next year. Already, several smaller airlines have filed for bankruptcy protection or simply shut down in recent months.
“This is worse than 9/11,” said Ray Neidl, an analyst with Calyon Securities.
After the 2001 terrorist attacks, “at least you knew passengers were coming back. Oil at $130 is unsolvable.”
“Oil at $130 is unsolvable.”
Hmmm, is it time to throw Wall Street under the bus so we can continue to let the real banks down gracefully? BB?
“In the view of airline executives and analysts, the industry is facing its toughest challenge yet, with little prospect that carriers can return to profits anytime soon.”
And they’ve already screwed their pilots, mechanics and retirees. Who’s next?
You forgot the passengers. They’ve s*****d them too!
PETER BRIMELOW
Kevin Phillips is still a populist
Commentary: Author’s new book blasts American megafinance debacle
By Peter Brimelow & Edwin S. Rubenstein,
Last update: 12:02 a.m. EDT May 26, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Almost 30 years ago, in 1969, Kevin Phillips wrote one of the outstanding books in American political history: “The Emerging Republican Majority.”
From a careful analysis of ethnic voting patterns, Phillips predicted the GOP lock on the presidency, through an alliance of the South and West — “the Sunbelt” — and its acquisition of white ethnics, often Catholic.
He was right.
But ironically, Phillips is not popular nowadays with many of the Republicans who have benefited from the seismic shift he predicted.
They think he’s moved to the left, because of his attacks on the Bush family and on what he sees the GOP’s surrender to special interests.
The common thread here: Phillips is and has always been a populist. He didn’t like limousine liberals in the 1960s. He doesn’t like financial elite today.
Phillips’ new book is “Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism.” (Phew!) MarketWatch’s Paul Farrell has described it as “everything you need to know about today’s credit meltdown.” See related column.
I’m going to vote Republican this year, after being a life-long democrat!
If the republicans just disassociate themselves from silly causes, like “Flag Burning Amendments” and their obsession with homosexuality, “abstinence programs”, etc, I think they will get a lot more converts. I don’t see it as a move to the left to drop these issues.
Conservatism faces a danger, though. The minority of people in this country pay an overwhelmingly large majority of the taxes. The top 5% of taxpayers pay 60% of the taxes, (while earning about 20% of the money.) It’s too easy for politicians to buy votes from the majority (say the bottom 50% of taxpayers that only pay 3% of the taxes) by confiscating more money from the only group of people that are creating jobs and adding true value to raw materials.
I don’t see any politicians proposing anything sensible like cutting spending, freezing the existing tax code, and raising EVERYONE’S taxes 1% to start reducing the national debt.
I’ve calculated how much Barack Hussein Obama wants to raise my family’s taxes. I’m not going to give specifics here of my income, but if he uncaps SS, taxes dividends at marginal rate, increases marginal rate to 39%, the increased amount is equivalent to the price of a luxury car (to throw out a vague number).
Interestingly, he throws out a coded loophole! He wants to lower corporate tax to 25%. You know what that means? Every solo-practitioner law office, consultancy, etc, that’s now an “LLC” will simply become an “C” corporation, and people will pay themselves low salaries to beat the payroll tax, while buying cars, meals–everything you can get away with–with pre-tax dollars.
The fact that Obama leaves in this gaping loophole shows that he’s not sincere, however misguided. It shows he’s simply trying to buy votes from the poor by beating up the minority: the Taxpaying class. (He needs to throw a bone to the very top so he can still get $$$ from people like Oprah, Geffen, Soros, etc, who don’t want to pay taxes either!)
US could stop giving tax free profits from the sale of real estate. I am thinking of the one wherein you live in the house for 3 of the last 5 years. Why do you think people were buying multiple properties? Free tax free money. They would just spend 3 years in a house and then sell it for tax free income.
Many, many of those who bought in Florida claimed homestead on more than one residence simultaneously. Long as the others are out of state, who is going to check?
No disagreement from me on this one.
I should also add that Barack wants to throw bucketfulls of $$$ at FBs. He wants to increase the mortgage interest deduction, and has a number of bailout plans to keep the Howmuchamonths and the Specuvestors in their homes.
Does he really care about homeowners, or is this a bank bailout, thinly veiled enough to fool the liberals?
A. The IRS isn’t that stupid
B. The incentive to make personal expenses deductible by calling them business expenses already exists under the current system so there is no change beyond saving 39% vs. saving 35% under the current rules.
C. The IRS has records of how much money you made last year, so if you are still working and your income falls drastically, the computer will certainly catch it.
C. If you equalize cap gains and earned income tax rates you remove the incentive to take profits out as cap gains so moving everything to a c-corp just puts you in a position to pay double tax on the business profits created by lowering the salary you pay yourself.
Basically, there is an incentive to leave the money in the business as much as you can get away with, but only if you are sure that cap gains rates will fall in a few years to allow you to take the money out at the lower rate and you can live without the money for now. Maybe OK for you, but lost of rich people live close to the edge and they need all the money they make to pay the pool boy and the nannies. And if you don’t think Congress would put in a recapture provision on that sucker you don’t know DC.
reuven, you are welcome you vote your pocket book in this election. Lots of people do. But the whining about how much you pay in taxes because you are so damn wealthy is BORING. Leave it for a few weeks.
First of all, Polly, I do not consider myself wealthy by any means. I am in an unfortunate class of people that has no political clout. I may make enough to be killed by taxes (my state + fed taxes will be over 60% if all of Obama’s plans go through), but there aren’t enough people like me to make a dent election day.
I’d like to know what *you* think of Obama’s tax plan. Go to his website and read it for yourself.
I’m not against a tax increase. I just want *everyone’s* taxes to go up a point.
I think I make plenty of money to support a good lifestyle. I could make more if I were willing to take on more risk and be less ethically and intellectually fulfilled. I would be able to afford a house if it weren’t for the nutso financial policies of this decade. The only tax policies that played any - minor - role in this were:
1) shifting the cap gains deferal on the sale of a house to an exception if you lived in it for 2 of the previous 5 years which was intended to let baby boomers take the money out of their east and west coast high cost houses to buy smaller places in cheaper areas for retirement (only it didn’t work quite that way)
and 2) a bit of the fiddling with the taxes on passive forms of income.
Do I want to pay more taxes? No. Can I? Yes. Do I consider that the money I make means I can afford to pay more to keep society civil? Yes. I can argue that a lot of what the goverment spends on is stupid without bitching about the exact amount of it that is considered my responsibilty.
The income tax is a misnomer. The US doesn’t tax income. It taxes the amount of income you have above and beyond a reasonable minimum needed to keep a roof over ones head and food in ones stomach with a few other spending preferences (owning a house, paying tuition, paying huge medical costs, etc.) thrown in. So stats about x% of people paying y% of the income taxes even though they make z% of the income are almost always skewed. How many of the people who don’t pay or don’t pay much are barely making enough to eat? And of the ones that make a bit more than that, how much disposable income do they have before you threaten their ability to eat?
And what about payroll taxes? The stats you mention almost always exclude them. People with big salaries get to stop paying those at some time during the year - when I worked for a law firm I finished paying them and it was nice, but hardly necessary for my survival. Most people have never experienced it. It is a pretty painless change if you aren’t overspending. If Obama wants to take off the cap instead of raising the retirement age even more, he can try it. Don’t know if he can get it past Congress, but he can try.
I don’t have to look carefully at the candidates’ tax policies. I’m voting the supreme court this time, as I have for nearly every election I’ve ever voted in. While I doubt any tax policies will much affect me except for possibly fixing the AMT (and that won’t matter until housing gets back to a reasonable price because I won’t buy until then) I wouldn’t change my vote because of tax policy. Spending and what they choose to spend it on is much more important.
Oh, and I didn’t get the rebate. AGI was too high. But I didn’t get my panties all tied up in a knot about how unfair it was that I paid a lot and didn’t get anything back while others didn’t pay much and still got a check. You know, like you did.
So you have voted every pres. election for the supreme court, which I assume is one issue? but Reuven shouldn’t vote with his wallet? Well, Polly Purebread, I guess that just makes you better than us, I’m with you Reuven. I’m not rich and I already pay enough in taxes.
Umm…if you look at the comment, I specifically said that he should go ahead and vote for his wallet and that lots of people do. Where do I say he shouldn’t do that?
And voting the Supreme Court is ANYTHING but a one issue vote. Talk about holier than thou. Hello, pot. I ain’t a kettle but if you think I am, you can wait for me to boil water. It won’t happen any time soon, but you can wait.
Thanks for the support, kirisdad!
According to “Polly”, people who are more financially successful than her are either dishonest or intellectually challenged! In fact, my experience has been opposite. It the “schemers” who try to get rich quick by being dishonest on mortgage applications who she should watch out for.
As I said, I’m not opposed to raising taxes if we need to do that. But throwing out tax breaks worth a fortune–like the recent law not to treat forgiven mortgage debt as income–is sickening. Especially when no effort is taken to make sure dishonest people doesn’t get it.
No matter how much money a person makes, you should be rewarded for saving money. Tell me how keeping interest rates artificially low, causing inflation by handing out checks, and artifically making house prices higher with “tax breaks” and cash handouts rewards savings? (Both democrats and republicans are behind many of these things.)
Polly may be surprised to know:
1. I consider myself a liberal. That’s why the fact that I’m voting for McCain is interesting. I voted for every democrat from Jimmy Carter to John Kerry
2. I support liberal issues, like universal health care.
But I don’t see how taxing the most productive people in the US excessively is going to help us. I want to help people afford houses…but NOT propping up the prices. Government-backed mortgages should require 20% down and lend no more than 3.5x income. There should be NO mortgage interest deduction. That’ll make affordable housing for everyone.
Instead, people like Polly punish productive people, and despise and dismiss anyone who makes more money than they do! Funny, as a open-minded person who believes all men are created equal and endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights, I do not judge people by their income levels. Too bad Polly does.
Here’s a summary of Barack’s ideas to prop up housing:
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/MortgageFactSheet.pdf (sorry! PDF)
If this isn’t buying votes, I don’t know what is.
He wants to inflate house prices by taxing others to subsidize them. That’s not fair, and I’m speaking as a homeowner.
* He wants to INCREASE the already unfair mortgage-interest tax credit.
* He wants to bail out people who bought more home than they could afford by “covering their losses”. George Bush already did one outrageous thing by not counting forgiven mortgage debt as income. Now, in addition to this generous handout, Barack wants to pick up the losses, too!
* He wants to change chapter 13 rules so one can ignore the original contract they made when they borrowed for their home.
* He talks about going after fraud, but never mentions dishonest BUYERS. Nobody wants to go after them. (I do! Jail costs $45K/year. These people are stealing more than that if they lied on their mortgage application and now refuse to pay. Perhaps the threat of jail will make them pay up!)
(When Bush does things like this, I imagine it’s because it can make him look compassionate, with the realization that the IRS isn’t likely to collect much from these deadbeats anyway.)
Reuven, what I find interesting is that I have always been more conservative and I am now moving more to the left politically. On my part, it was the greed of wall street power brokers. What we have in common is justice and fairness. Also, the fact that the blame for this housing debacle stretched over all income brackets.
“Almost 30 years ago, in 1969″
Errrr….that would be….umm….almost 40 years ago. If we experience societal collapse, I really hope things slow down enough for proofreading to resurrect as a professional writing practice. I’m not a stickler or anything but that’s unacceptable.
Great catch
UBS Falls After Saying More Mortgage Losses Possible
By Elena Logutenkova
May 26 (Bloomberg) — UBS AG, the European bank hardest hit by the U.S. subprime contagion, fell as much as 3.7 percent in Swiss trading after saying it may face more losses from mortgage securities.
Lawd, you’d think they’d throw everything into that “big bath” that they took earlier rather than this drip-drip-drip.
Big bath, and they are insolvant. They need the drip-drip to give time for other bubbles to form to inflate their other assets so they can pretend that they are not insolvant.
and of course the golden parachutes for their banksters need some time to deploy; having them all jump at the same time would make it obvious that there is serious distress at headquarters.
A poster yesterday suggested that banks holding (hiding?) REO on their books are breaking the law. But suppose banks are so inundated w/ REO that they just can’t sell it very quickly. What is their legal obligation, regarding either accounting for a flood of REO they are not selling, or moving off their balance sheets by selling it?
I don’t buy it… at least not here in PHX.
I pulled Trust Deeds (final step of foreclsoure) from the past 18 months. Picked 20 at random per month that were taken by lenders.
Jan 07: 20 of 20 had been resold
June 07: 19 of 20 had been cleared.
Sept 07: 16 of 20 were off the lender’s books.
Jan 08: 9 of 20 already liquidated.
With 1 year supply of houses on the market, I think they are doing pretty good at clearing inventory.
Wait for RTC Redux, what else?
Unfortunately, the debacle happened in election year so they will just have to wait a little bit longer.
There is no legal prohibition on holding REO, banks must simply operate in a safe and sound manner. The problem with REO is that not only doesn’t it generate income but it costs money to carry. The only requirements for REO are that the bank must have the property appraised and account for it at market value, and that there must be a sensible, prudent plan for its management (either sale or rental). Bank examiners have a lot of latitude with respect to REO and typically their findings are governed by policy set by the political chiefs of their agencies.
BTW, if the supervisory authority believes the book value of REO is overstated, the agency can have the property reappraised. This is often done for income properties and large parcels of land. I think, but am not sure, that the agency can force the bank to pay for the reappraisal.
with the MSM talking about the fed possibly raising rates at their next meeting, does anyone know what specific harm it would do if they were to raise the rates?
In today’s OC Register, no_vaseline linked to this post today:
“This is pushing the boundaries of good taste even for me, but facts is facts, and it is what it is.
First, the property:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/SAN-CLEMENTE/32-CAMPANILLA-92673/home/4973874
32 Campanilla
San Clemente, CA 92673
Price: $1,699,900
Beds: 4
Baths: 5
Sq. Ft.: 3,900
$/Sq. Ft.: $436
Lot Size: 10,600 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean
Year Built: 1984
Stories: 3+ Levels
View: Catalina Island, City Lights, Coastline, Golf Course, Harbor, Ocean, Panoramic, Pier, White Water
Area: San Clemente North
County: Orange
MLS#: S525418
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 71 days
Then the NOD (it’s #32 on the list):
http://www.nefcortez.com/home-files/Foreclosures/Archives/OC-TS/OC_TS_Report_08-13-2007.pdf - Similar pages
And the OC Register report of a quintuple homacide 2-3 weeks old, discovered today.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/giudice-sheriff-family-2051863-department-bodies
Apparently the guy on the title was a Civil Engeneer, PE and an MD.
I guess we’ll find out what really happened soon enough. Can bankrupcy be so bad to warrant this? “
Wonder how the listing agent will deal with disclosures on that one. “Ahh, that’s just a little bit of red tide.”
“No, I didn’t feel something go by just then. There might be a door open.”
etc.
the story says 31 Campanilla. this place is 32.
This may seem obvious or dumb, but isn’t runaway inflation and the devaluation of the dollar in effect lowering house prices?
So while my paycheck stays the same, everything else (food, gas, etc) goes up… housing stays FLAT or goes down less than it should… is this a smoke and mirrors way to keep people’s “wealth” intact on paper (calming the masses a little)?
Housing went up w/ high inflation in the 1970s because wages went up, too. This time is different, as consumer goods prices have taken flight, while paychecks are left on the ground in the dust.
“Housing went up w/ high inflation in the 1970s because wages went up, too. This time is different, as consumer goods prices have taken flight, while paychecks are left on the ground in the dust.”
A fact I find infinitely fascinating Professor.
By the way, is there anyway I can get extra credit in this class? When I read the chapters I seem to understand the material really well, but when it comes to the exams I just don’t seem to get the right answer.
When we study together, all my friends all say how much I really know the information. Much better than they do. Then on the test, I get the wrong answers. I know I did poorly on all the exams, but could I maybe write a paper and still get an “A”?
“is this a smoke and mirrors way to keep people’s “wealth” intact on paper (calming the masses a little)?
It’s working for me. But in the back of my mind I am squirming with worry about my fiscal health.
MONDAY, MAY 26, 2008
EDITORIAL COMMENTARY
A Change of Status
By THOMAS G. DONLAN
An Unhappy Anniversary
WHAT DO YOU CALL A PERSON WHO OWES MORE ON HIS MORTGAGE than his house is worth? Some would call him a victim. Many would call him a homeowner in distressed circumstances. Almost nobody observing the current crisis has thought to give his situation its proper name: He is a renter.
Such an occupant makes monthly payments to live in a house in which he has no equity. Absurdly, the payments still are designated tax-deductible interest (mostly) and repayment of principal (a tiny fraction).
Cheap Chic: Home-Price Erosion Hits the $5 Million-Plus Market
By Karen Hube
Word Count: 2,110
Where the Financial Crisis Is Headed Next
By Lawrence C. Strauss
Word Count: 2,280 | Companies Featured in This Article: Countrywide Financials, Wells Fargo, BB&T, Toll Brothers, Hudson City Bancorp, Hatteras Financial, MGIC Investment
THREE YEARS AGO, HEDGE-FUND MANAGER SY JACOBS TOLD Barron’s that serious trouble was brewing in the housing market, predicting that “the bursting of the housing bubble [would] be a dominant theme for investing in financial stocks in the next decade.” He was right.
non subscriber version can be found here: warning PDF
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/interview_with_sy_jacobs.pdf
I am mad at some banks. Do you think it is possible to pass a prop in Calif to change the usery law to any intrest over 10% is defined as usery?
There is a usury law in California but banks are exempt. Go figure.
Doesn’t matter. Long ago, the Supreme Court ruled the bank can loan based on the max interest rate where THEY are located, NOT where the borroweris located. This is why all the banks moved to South Carolina where they could charge the top rates.
This looks like a homebuilder selling one of his toys: a ‘95 Corvette.
Notice the e-mail address contains the phrase “homebuilder”
http://charlotte.craigslist.org/car/695487324.html
“The McCain-Clinton proposal is a reminder to me that the biggest energy crisis we have in our country today is the energy to be serious — the energy to do big things in a sustained, focused and intelligent way. We are in the midst of a national political brownout”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/opinion/30friedman.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/26/business/26cnd-home.html?hp
“The problem of vacant homes is all the more striking when considered against predictions by economists that a couple of million more homes will enter foreclosure in the next two years, said Cheryl Lang, president of Integrated Mortgage Solutions, a firm based in Houston that contracts with Mr. McCallister and Mr. Law on behalf of mortgage companies.
“We still have two million more people that need to go through this process,” she said. “That’s like the entire town of Tampa going through foreclosure.”
Nearly 3 percent of homes that were once occupied by their owners in the country were vacant in March. That is up from less than 2 percent three years ago and is the highest since the Census bureau began publishing the number in 1956.”
“That’s like the entire town of Tampa going through foreclosure.”
Tampa is the new proxy for the nation? Does Peoria know?
AP
Food banks facing new clients, mounting costs
Monday May 26, 2:13 pm ET
By Evelyn Nieves, Associated Press Writer
Seniors, homeowners among new clients visiting food banks as pantries see dwindling supplies
STOCKTON, Calif. (AP) — Jackie Hoffman sifted through a laundry bin filled with aging bread, choosing a loaf of white.
Like nearly a third of the first 50 customers to arrive at the Emergency Food Bank of Stockton that morning, Hoffman was new to the pantry. But since she lost her sales job at a local newspaper in December, she has not found work in Stockton, which has the highest foreclosure rate in the country and a hurting job market.
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“I’m down on my luck,” Hoffman said, squeezing and sniffing the bread. “And food is going through the roof. I need help.”
Hoffman, 55, is one of the growing number of “nontraditional” food pantry clients across the country. They include more formerly independent senior citizens, more people who own houses and more people who used to call themselves “middle-class” — those who are not used to fretting over the price of milk.
“We’re getting calls all the time from people who want to know how to get here,” said Kristine Gibson, community outreach manager at the Stockton food pantry. “And when I ask where they live, they give an address of a nice neighborhood, one where you or I would want to live.”
April saw the biggest jump in food prices in 18 years, according to the Labor Department. At the same time, workers’ average weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation, dropped for the seventh straight month.
To meet growing demand, America’s Second Harvest-The Nation’s Food Bank Network, pressed lawmakers for the past year to increase the annual level of funding for The Emergency Food Assistance Program, commonly know as TEFAP, from $140 million to $250 million annually.
A survey it conducted of 180 food banks in late April and early May found that 99 percent have seen an increase in the number of clients served within the last year. The increase is estimated at 15 percent to 20 percent, though many food banks reported increases as high as 40 percent.
The money was included in the Farm Bill recently approved by Congress, but won’t be available until the next fiscal year, which starts in October.
“The way it’s going, we’re going to have a food disaster pretty soon,” said Phyllis Legg, interim executive director of the Merced Food Bank, which serves 43 food pantries throughout foreclosure-ravaged Merced County.
Food banks across the country are in similar straits: While demand is up, supplies and donations are down. The food banks, like their customers, also are suffering from high gas prices and struggling with the impact of rising food prices on their operations. Some have had to cut back on how much food they give, or how often.
“If gas keeps going up, it’s going to be catastrophic in every possible way,” said Ross Fraser, a spokesman for America’s Second Harvest.
Food banks sometimes have to move food 150 miles to a food pantry, he said.
“You’re going to get to the point where they are going to have to decide whether it’s cheaper to just give a food pantry a check,” he said. “The price of gasoline is going to drive the price of everything else.”
Prices at the pump are at record highs, averaging just below $4 a gallon, and are expected to climb further.
Stories of want and need are mounting. In informal surveys, America’s Second Harvest has found a growing number of food banks in crisis mode.
– In Albuquerque, N.M., the Roadrunner Food Bank reported that the pantries it serves are turning people away and running out of food.
– In Baton Rouge, La., the public school system has found students hoarding their free and reduced-price lunches so they can bring them home and have something to eat at night.
– In Lorain, Ohio, the Second Harvest Food Bank is finding that it is meeting only 25 percent to 30 percent of the need for food.
– In Merced, the food bank is planning to curtail a brown bag program, which supplies groceries to senior citizens, from once a week to once every two weeks, Legg said.
Even in San Francisco, a city that has been relatively unscathed by the foreclosure crisis and economic downturn, food pantries are seeing hundreds of new clients.
“We’ve gone from serving about 450 to 600 clients a day since Christmas,” said Sara Miles, director of The Food Pantry.
“This is one of the worst times that our food banks have experienced in recent years in terms of the level of need and our ability to meet the need,” said Vicki Escarra, president and chief executive officer of America’s Second Harvest.
The Emergency Food Bank of Stockton, which operates out of a cavernous warehouse at the fringe of town, now finds customers lining up several hours before it opens at 10 a.m.
That’s because, clients say, the best food — the fresh meat and eggs — goes first.
“If I get here too late, I’ll be left with Marshmallow Fluff for 14 days,” said Sondra Pearson, a mother of seven. “Not,” she added, “that I’m going to turn that down.”
Seniors, homeowners among new clients visiting food banks as pantries see dwindling supplies