May 27, 2008

Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For May 27, 2008

Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.




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414 Comments »

Comment by wmbz
Comment by Tom
2008-05-27 05:35:59

What’s funny is that the US wants to sue OPEC because they limit the amount of oil they produce.

Well, why don’t we sue ourselves since we won’t allow any more oil drilling here. If memory serves me correctly, there is tons of oil in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico, and North Dakota?

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-05-27 06:00:33

Hitachi ? has an apartment size nuke- we are going to “CREATE” green jobs
=roflow

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 06:17:57

RE: Oil addicts

I just got back from a 3 day 1200 mile round trip run from Beantown to DC.

$4.00 per gallon gaz means squat to Americans.

The Mazz Pike, NY I-87 (northbound on Friday-YIKES!) , Garden State Parkway, Baltimore/DC I-95 belt were mobbed.

It’ll be interesting when prices reach a parity with Europe @ $8.00 per gallon.

Comment by polly
2008-05-27 06:36:43

95 between DC and NYC is the devil’s highway. Not much better between NYC and Boston.

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Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 07:14:57

RE: 95 between DC and NYC is the devil’s highway

The monster roller coasters at Cedar Point have nothin’ over the 5 story high over-passes currently being constructed on a couple of I-95 exchanges outside DC.

Sheer lunacy.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 07:46:57

Lots of traffic in the Sierra Nevada…

We are part of the established European road-trip that goes from SF or LA to here, Death Valley, Grand Canyon, Zion, Bryce Canyon and other National Parks.

It’s hard to say, but i’d guestimate there are 25% more overseas (not just European) visitors, than last year.

$4 a gallon gas to a European($8 a gallon back in the old country) is giveaway cheap, as are our prices of food and lodging.

Want to make money in the new economy?

Cater to their needs.

 
Comment by polly
2008-05-27 08:19:25

Try driving that stretch on Thanksgiving morning. I did it. Once. Ya can’t fool me twice on that one.

 
Comment by Pasadena_Renter
2008-05-27 10:58:29

We used to call the trip Aladinsane mentions the “German Loop”. Every German grad student I knew took that trip at some point. I am embarassed not to have done it myself.

On gas prices, a friend of mine moved here years ago from Europe and bought the smallest, most fuel efficient car available. He kicked himself for his entire time in the U.S. for not buying a giant old Cadillac, not having realized how cheap gas was in the U.S. He figured he missed his one chance to own an impractically large car.

I have looked into buying a more fuel efficient car (I have a car that gets 20 in the city and 30 on the highway), but the numbers don’t make sense. I could save a few hundred per year, but not enough to be worth getting a new(er) car (yet).

I have thought about a deposit on an Aptera as a hedge in case prices keep going up. $30K seems a bit steep though. Check them out, I think the mileage is something like 130, and higher with batteries.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 11:23:41

From the point a German lands @ LAX, picks up their car/rv and gets on the road, they won’t see a word in their language, on 99.9% of their voyage~

Luckily, most every traveler from Europe under 40, speaks English.

The Dutch seem most entranced by the wide-open spaces of the Southwest, coming from a country where everything is a tight fit, in comparison.

 
Comment by Steadykat
2008-05-27 11:37:02

Germans seem to love Zion and Bryce Canyon. The tour bus “circuits” around here are loaded with them.

I had a friend who was at our local Harley dealer last week. He observed two German couples that appeared to be buying two of pretty much everything clothing related in the store. They told the salesman that they couldn’t believe how much that they could get for their “dollars”.

I like to ride my motorcycle (or bicycle) over to Springdale (Zion) every once in a while to Oscars (great garlic burgers). I no longer see many cars with CA or NV plates on my road trip to and from.

Until this year the overwhelming majority of cars that I would see on my ride (weekdays, weekends or holidays) were from those two States.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 11:40:58

A couple weeks ago I was gassing up next to a German family of 6, that had rented half a dozen Harleys for a 3 week vacation.

That had to cost a few pennies…

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 06:45:52

Could it be that more people were on the road because they can’t afford to fly?

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Comment by bottomfisherman
2008-05-27 06:46:51

As long as their credit cards and retirement accounts are still available to tap, Americans will continue guzzling petrol.

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-27 06:49:06

I thought of you, hd74man, because we travelled to Lake George and I know you mentioned relatives in the Adirondacks. Was kind of keeping an ear out for someone talking about mazzholes and appraisal fraud. LOL

$4.14/gal south of Brant Lake. Although the Oneida Indians were only charging $3.89 back in Oneida.

The roads were pretty empty but I couldn’t believe the new construction up there. There were areas where you saw more for sale signs than others. But the wealth was unbelievable. Town after town sporting very sparkly new fire stations and town offices. (Your words about separating tourists from their money were ringing in my ears.)

I also couldn’t help but notice women in pink cowboy boots and cashmere wraps to come to the woods. Definitely downstate dress. The resort we stayed at sported mostly NJ plates. Although we took the last availability the night we arrived (didn’t like the place we reserved down the road) the place was full.

We didn’t see too much lake activity even though we kayaked about a mile or two down the lake, perhaps about 10 mostly smaller boats. However, we were drooling over some 25′ 1940ish wooden ChrisCraft beauty making the rounds. He was out there for quite a while every day. A man undeterred-fuel prices be damned!

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Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 07:20:58

RE: we travelled to Lake George

YIKES, C-A!

Hope you weren’t in the I87 northbound stuff from the Garden State Parkway & I-287. Sure was backed up when I came thru around 4:30 on Friday.

From the lines I saw you could listen to “War & Peace” on CD by the time you hit the tolls below I84.

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 07:34:41

RE: we travelled to Lake George and I know you mentioned relatives in the Adirondacks.

C-A~

I’m pretty sure Exeter is the one with the relatives in the Adirondacks.

However, I can be sourced to the occasional politcal commentary about God’s chosen people and the bumper crop of appraisal fraud.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 08:26:44

Yeah that be me. Maternal side from Adirondacks. Carrie Ann, what you described was very accurate. Retarded NYC/CT/NJ idiots dress up and looking like the village people parading around the hollers in upstate. That wealth you see exhibited in the municipal facilities are reflected in the oppressive tax bill that come every September. The entire charade is humorous to watch, especially when the brutal winter arrives.

 
Comment by realestateskeptic
2008-05-27 11:23:06

Went up to our camp in the ADKS this weekend, Mass Pike to 87 North. Still plenty of Mazzholes and NJ folks I was trying to avoid around, but those in the big SUV’s still seem mighty obnoxious and still seem to have plenty of $$$. Wish the black flies would just eat those folks!!! Gas was $4.05 in Schroon Lake. I have been looking around at R/E and still not a total bust up there….yet????

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-27 11:47:50

Sorry for the confusion, exeter! I see you were further downstate.

Yeah, the dress took me by surprise as we have ties to other parts of the ‘Rondacks. There’s money there too but they actually dress like they enjoy being outdoors instead of looking like they’ve been dragged kicking and screaming planning to spend the entire time behind very large panes of glass. :)

 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 11:51:40

You got that right. They are an obnoxious, noxious toxic bunch.

 
Comment by realestateskeptic
2008-05-27 12:45:06

Went trout fishing and then took the family to the Lake George outlets later in the day…talk about night and day…… We try to blend in, others seem intent on standing out. Of course we have a 900 square foot camp and they are staying in McMansions on the Lake or at the Sagamore or other high priced Inn.

 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2008-05-27 06:49:19

That’s typical traffic to the Jersey shore for Memorial Day weekend (and now every weekend thru the end of summer) on the Garden State Parkway.

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Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 07:26:17

RE: Garden State Parkway.

Man, ya just gotta luv those 12 lane toll booths outside Newark that funnel exiting, rush hour traffic back into 3. More fun than the bumper cars I remember as a kid.

Always a rear-ender somewhere in the pack further contributing to the chaos. And of course, New Jerseyites are world reknown for their motor vehicle courtesy.

Got Maloxx.

 
 
Comment by bluto
2008-05-27 06:51:46

I metro, but on Wednesday’s have to drive to another burb, and traffic has declined pretty substantially in the last month or so.

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Comment by bkiddo
2008-05-27 10:36:03

At least you all can drive around. Our island is tiny and a five hour flight, ugggghhhhh.
On gas use/traffic, I’ve seen many less SUVs and Hummers, alot of tiny new cars on the road.
Talk at work and around town is “travel now while you still can”.
Hawaii is getting rightfully scared. ATA and Aloha shut down, Molokai ranch closed, and who in the world wants to come here now?
Even the surfers look more irritated. Maybe they have had to cut down on the pakalolo.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 10:47:44

I’d book it, Danno

Talk at work and around town is “travel now while you still can”

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 10:57:00

Maybe we’ll see the return of the “cruise to Hawaii”, as airfares get more and more expensive.

 
Comment by MM
2008-05-27 11:15:45

I don’t mean to be impolite, however the turn of the century (19th to 20th), just to have Sunday off for entertainment was just becoming the norm. Generally, people (the elites not included) worked factory jobs for ungodly hours. Basically, they slept (on and off the job), worked and ate. Where the sex fitted in, I am not sure. By the way, everyone drank booze, whether on the job or off.

Americans are so spoiled that it is unreal. The way it was will be the way it will be in the future. No autos. Vacations outside of the city park will be a luxury. In the future, we will most likely not travel more than 100 miles from where we were born, unless the breadwinner’s employer will accept the costs or your job demands travel (sailors traveling at sea or were in a war).

IMHO

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 18:02:04

RE: The way it was will be the way it will be in the future.

Hopefully, before it all shites the bed, the citizenry will first burn down DC like the Brits in the War of 1812

 
 
Comment by Manny
2008-05-27 07:19:34

I was out on a lake most of the weekend. Gas is $5+ at marinas and I’ve never seen the lake busier than Sunday and Monday. And those boats are pulled by trucks getting 8-10mpg while towing.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-05-27 07:33:30

Our lake seemed as busy as usual for the Memorial Day weekend. Nice weather helped.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 10:59:03

We had lousy weather so the boaters stayed home. What I do know is that the mongo trucks are piling up at the local car dealers.

 
 
Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 08:27:15

I do NOT support increased drilling in the continental US until conservation becomes a part of the discussion.

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Comment by chilidoggg
2008-05-27 08:53:21

So you’re all for drilling in ANWAR, then?

 
Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 09:08:38

Nope. It’s part of the same continent :)

There are too many people who dismiss all talk of conservation. It might not be the solution, but it should be a meaningful part of any energy policy.

 
 
 
Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-05-27 09:38:04

“Well, why don’t we sue ourselves since we won’t allow any more oil drilling here. If memory serves me correctly, there is tons of oil in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico, and North Dakota?”

Thanks for playing.

The estimates I’ve heard are that there may be as much as 11 billion barrels of oil in ANWR.

Sounds like a lot huh? Turns out only about half of that is economically viable for extraction and consumption(the rest would take more energy to extract than we would get by consuming it).

That’s around 6 billion barrels or less, erring in the high side.

The current rate of petroleum consumption in the US, according to the Department of Energy, is 19,761,000 Barrels per day. Based on this statistic, the US goes through 6 billion barrels in 303 days.

Therefore, all of the drilling in Alaska might account for less than a year of our oil consumption.

As for your cost at the pump, it’s estimated that drilling ANWR would lower the cost of oil by a whopping 50 cents a BARREL.

You wouldn’t even notice it at the gas pump.

On the other hand, we’re only talking about around 2000 acres of land that would be affeted by the drilling, out of over 17 million acres total.

So who really gives a shit one way or the other. We should just go to war and take someone else’s oil. Oh wait…

You see, it really doesn’t

Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-05-27 09:49:17

Oops, strike that list line, I meant to erase it:

You see, it really doesn’t

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Comment by BanteringBear
2008-05-27 09:20:52

Totally boring link filled partisan blah, blah, blah, blahhhhhh….

Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-27 09:33:19

Where, BB? I just saw talk of freeway congestion with dressed up townies.

Comment by BanteringBear
2008-05-27 12:47:34

The “National Review” link from the very first post. Not even worth reading IMO.

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Comment by Jwhite
Comment by combotechie
2008-05-27 06:17:13

A reminder:

The Libor determines the rates charged on $350 trillion of various financial instruments. That means a one percent change in the Libor translates into a $3.5 trillion change of this $350 trillion. A mere one basis point change translates to a $35 billion change.

Some very big bucks based on lies.

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-05-27 06:27:59

There’s a guy I know who got some strange jumbo mortgage that adjusts on a daily basis against LIBOR. Seriously, every day. (Miracle of computers — imagine figuring each month’s payment the old fashioned way!) I know he’s gotta be sweating it when he looks up the new LIBOR rate every morning. Oh, and since he bought the place a year ago, things are “going fine”, but… he did have to sell off the Hummer at a tidy loss. Not sure if it was gas prices, or the monthly nut on that pig, or his latest house payments that made him get rid of it; I don’t him well enough to ask.

Comment by Abuyer
2008-05-27 06:59:50

There is a good chance that he will have to sell off his home at a tidy loss too down the road. Wrong timing.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 06:28:39

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) of all forms of cash is inevitable if Humpty Dumpty Libors off the wall…

Got a Plan B for keeping your wealth intact?

Comment by combotechie
2008-05-27 06:42:03

If (when) the Libor is adjusted up then cash will become more expensive, more precious, more in demand, not less.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 06:48:24

What part of the production cost of a $100 Bill being around 50 Cents, don’t you understand?

 
Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 06:53:43

Yes, cash is so expensive. Why a 30 year fixed mortgage is 6%…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Lee
2008-05-27 04:12:02

As home values decline, banks freezing home equity lines

If you have a home equity line of credit that you were planning to use anytime soon, better make sure it’s still there.
Banks here and nationwide are starting to freeze homeowners’ equity lines because of declining home values and the shaky economy.

While the practice started a few months ago in other parts of the country, it’s just now hitting Northeast Ohio as banks from Fifth Third to Chase to AmTrust reduce their exposure to over-leveraged consumers. Most banks that haven’t yet frozen home equity lines are looking at doing so.

In Northeast Ohio, home prices fell by nearly 7 percent from 2005 to 2007, according to the recorder’s offices in the seven-county region. The declines are most dramatic in Cuyahoga County, where prices dropped 26 percent — 11 percent in areas outside Cleveland.

http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2008/05/as_home_values_decline_banks_f.html

Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-05-27 07:07:16

I believe it is a lot more interesting… as I mentioned earlier, one of my “connections” has a big-wig’ish job at a very large bank. About a week ago he takes me to lunch and the moment we sit down starts asking if my revenues are down. Me: “Nope, why?” Him: “Your revenue spread is 10/70/20, right? (consumer, small biz, big business)”. Me: “Yes” Him: “We got a new memo. I can’t show it to you but it goes like this. Take the lowest appraisal. Subtract $80,000 to $100,000. That’s the new value for the house that our process uses. Even I can’t override it. People come in to refi or HELOC and think they have some equity and we say you have nil.”

Comment by JP
2008-05-27 07:21:48

omg. Bankers are being conservative with money? Is nothing sacred?

PS. What is your biz? (ie what is it that splits 10/70/20?)

Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-05-27 07:36:21

Mostly designing/developing and operating internet infrastructure, ranging from renting webservers to consumers to running web farms with multi-gigabit per second websites that sit on dozens of servers. And all the crap that comes with it… fiber, power, cooling, etc.

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Comment by lostcontrol
2008-05-27 11:32:10

I have a question for you’ll-

Since most of you are independent contractors or employed by High tech/IT, what do you think your chances are of standing in the unemployment line along with the rest of us?

The only reason I am asking is that some of us seem to be awfully cavalier about the US and the World’s financial situation.

I just thought that it is a question that should be asked!

imho

 
 
 
Comment by combotechie
2008-05-27 07:32:25

“Take the lowest appraisal. Subtract $80,000 to $100,000. That’s the new value for the house that our process uses.”

So this $80,000 to $100,000 is the missing skin that is being forced back into the game.

The Great Unwind rolls on. (Oh, the pain.)

Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 07:42:12

RE: 80,000 to $100,000.

FHA/HUD, VA, the GSE’s and other government insured underwriting will find a way to get around these “petty anty” numbers (snicker).

FHA/HUD Appraiser Rule No. #1-There’s no number I can’t hit or home condition requirement I can’t fudge.

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Comment by polly
2008-05-27 08:33:35

Naw. It allows them to still make very low down or no down payment loans (on the fake lower valuation) and still cover their asses for about 3 months. The real capitulation comes when they a) can trust the appraisers not to “hit” the seller’s number and b) demand a large downpayment anyway.

This is still fiddling around with stuff. But it is getting closer.

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-27 07:54:27

“Take the lowest appraisal. Subtract $80,000 to $100,000.”

That could make some of the lower end homes almost free to 1/2 off in this neck of the woods. LOL What’s the median in your area?

The movement is encouraging. Thanks for sharing.

Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-05-27 10:02:39

Excluding shot-up places, and places where no one sane would want to live about 400k

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Comment by HBBLurker
2008-05-27 07:28:44

HELOC’s should be done away with completly, nothing good can ever come of them, and since pretty much everyone who baught in the last 3-5 years is underwater equity wise why should’nt there HELOC be completely revoked….

Comment by reuven
2008-05-27 08:10:31

HELOCs should be used for one thing and one thing only: To make ESSENTIAL REPAIRS on your home if you have no other way of fixing them. (Roof repair, termites, etc.)

Comment by bkiddo
2008-05-27 10:50:43

I know someone who went to one of those guru/mentor seminars and was advised to HELOC every cent available and use ccd advances to buy “cash flow” properties in Toledo and Lubbock. She did so in December of last year, most aren’t rented, a few have Section 8 tenants and she’s now trying to convince other people to “invest” by buying her “cash cows”. Her explanation to her family was “we could get sued and lose all our home equity (about a million at the time). The “mentors” have property manager/realtor/wholesaler people who basically convince these out of towners that purchasing a foreclosure in a bad neighborhood (LaGrange), slapping on some paint, and leaving town will bring their 20K plus investment 500 a month rent. What a racket for all the people involved. Sad to watch the uninformed invest what they have so poorly. I mentioned- is that where the riot was in 2005? I got a dumb stare and a loud denial (riots??). I got irritated and said “don’t you google a town 8000 miles away when you’re making major investments?
AAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGGGG
The dummies are still out there folks, and they haven’t run out of credit yet.

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Comment by lostcontrol
2008-05-27 11:40:30

bkiddo,

Have you noticed that when the experts/scam artists can no longer make money in an asset bubble/market, they move immediately to educational seminars to teach the knife catchers to step in and buy out the Big Boyz?

This is how I know not to get involved. When experts/professional can make more money teaching others, its all over!

 
 
Comment by W H Young
2008-05-27 11:52:13

And bring back the term “second mortgage”, instead of HELOC

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Comment by reuven
2008-05-27 12:54:07

I think that’s a good idea. It makes it sound more serious. “Line of Credit” used to be a businessman’s term, not something someone would use to describe something akin for a personal loan. So the term appealed to the FBs because it made them feel more like a wheeler-dealer-bigshot-investor

 
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-05-27 04:17:11

Good morning, campers. How about that Mars lander, eh? I don’t know why we (US) just don’t claim the red planet for our own, terraform it, and build houses. We’re running out of land down here.

Comment by Jwhite
2008-05-27 04:21:11

Martian land rush bubble?

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-05-27 07:38:48

There’s a 40-acre parcel in Syrtus Minor up for bids on Ebay. :-)

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-27 04:25:25

Can we send the CEO’s of all of the big builders and lenders to Mars? It seems like a small price to pay to rid ourselves of this collective menace.

Comment by palmetto
2008-05-27 04:30:14

Come to think of it, Mars would probably make a great prison planet. Nice place for the majority of Congress, the administration, etc. All Fed members, too.

Comment by Asparagus
2008-05-27 04:36:34

Then the prisons could be converted into condos.

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Comment by Ed G
2008-05-27 04:53:40

Buy now or be priced out of the universe forever!

 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-27 04:56:32

We’ll force them all to relocate themselves at their cost to another planet, not Earth, on short notice.

 
Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 05:05:20

The Villas at Cold Crater. From the 600s.

 
Comment by Northern Renter
2008-05-27 05:05:41

It’s different there.

NR

 
Comment by Tom
2008-05-27 05:37:02

Afterall, God isn’t making more planets!

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-05-27 06:41:18

Seriously, Mars will be the only habitable planet in this solar system if we survive long enough to experience the sun’s brightening, normal for main-sequence stars. My contribution to terraforming ideas available in Proc Natl Acad of Sci, Feb 2001, “Keeping Mars warm with new supergreenhouse gases.” However, my guess would be that a drastic, unplanned reduction of human population on earth will come much sooner than any Mars engineering.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 06:46:37

We had about 700 million people living on the Earth before the Industrial Age, and we may just have around 700 million people living on the Earth, in the Post-Industrial Age.

 
Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 06:47:19

We have an entire continent here on Earth that we’re not really using and it is WAY more hospitable, and WAY, WAY, easier to get to than Mars.

 
Comment by Bronco
2008-05-27 08:01:14

almost 2 unused continents with Australia

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 09:27:00

We have an entire continent here on Earth that we’re not really using and it is WAY more hospitable, and WAY, WAY, easier to get to than Mars.

Good point. Antartica is:
warmer
has plenty of breathable air
no shortage of H2O

And they have all those cute penguins along the coast!

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2008-05-27 09:51:04

Oh, gosh - now you’ve done it!

Antarctic land rush! They aren’t making any more frozen ice fields, you know!

South Pole condos, from the mid $700’s!

 
Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 10:25:09

Lots of sun in the summer, in never rains…They should sell the dome to flippers instead of carting it out of there.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 10:39:32

How would a Realtor make the surrounding views of snow & ice sound more appealing, in their listings?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 11:04:21

Winter sports paradise?

 
Comment by hip in zilker
2008-05-27 14:39:18

Ski to the ocean?

 
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-05-27 14:52:19

Tap dancing/marching penguins…….

 
 
Comment by bizarroworld
2008-05-27 04:40:33

I think Hillary is trying to determine if the current batch of devices on Mars are Democrats and if so, can she claim them in her delegate count. After all, two devices landed there during her husband’s administration.

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Comment by 45north
2008-05-27 06:06:13

bizarro: She can go to a galaxy far far away and pitch R2D2 and 3CPO.

 
Comment by Dani W
2008-05-27 08:52:42

How dare she continue to compete when the MSM declared a winner months ago?

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2008-05-27 05:10:41

Here’s a nice little summation of the mess these asshat’s got us into with their recklessness coupled with this idiotic monetary system.
Be sure to note the CPI chart from 1800 to present.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/rosen052508.html

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Comment by az_lender
2008-05-27 06:43:43

That chart is almost enough to make you/me want to buy houses. Almost, not quite…

 
 
Comment by Northeastener
2008-05-27 06:19:34

Come to think of it, Mars would probably make a great prison planet.

Try “The Moon is a harsh mistress” by Robert Heinlen. Different celestial body, same concept…

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Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 06:48:59

One of my favorites. The extreme libertarianism makes an interesting contrast to the militarism of Starship Troopers.

 
Comment by nhz
2008-05-27 08:13:10

just for the record: Starship Troopers (from Dutch director Paul Verhoeven) is only militaristic at first glance; it actually is a warning against that kind of militaristic empires and the propaganda that goes with it (but maybe some US viewers didn’t get the message …).

 
Comment by Deflationary Jane
2008-05-27 08:34:53

My #2 favorite book of all time! Another gem is the mote in god’s eye. I hadn’t cracked it years and forgot how good it was.

 
Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 09:20:18

Actually NHZ, I was thinking of the book, which was set in a militaristic (though not, faschist) society. Just because the book and the movie are SET in militaristic societies, doesn’t mean that they are ADVOCATING militariism, although it is no surprise that many of characters within it DO believe that ideology. But debating the militarism of Starship Troopers (and by extension Heinlein) is much like debating the gold standard: everyone has an opinion and they rarely change. Instead of discussion, you get a bunch of long-winded speaches like….Heinlein characters.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-27 09:56:48

Martian Chronicles by Ray Bradbury

 
Comment by Waiting for the Fall
2008-05-27 10:15:49

Cities in Flight by James Blish, if you seek a solution to this mess. We just need someone to come up with a spindizzy that works.

 
Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 10:40:21

Naah, thing Big. Ringworld….. at ~4 quintillion acres it’s a whole lot of land.

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-27 11:41:12

Oh Jim,

Good one. Forgot about the ringworld novels.

 
 
 
 
Comment by DrewATL
2008-05-27 04:58:30

Buy now or be priced out forever. Luxurious, affordable single family residences and townhomes starting from the $400s. Why throw money away on rent when you could take advantage of an unprecedented opportunity to OWN in Mars’s first luxury subdivision!

Welcome to .

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 06:09:58

We should plan what to do with all the illegal immigrant astronauts landing on Mars, and taking away jobs from Earthlings…

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-05-27 06:30:37

Nicko the Nigerian:

I’ll sell you a South facing 1 acre lot & if your pay with credit card…I’ll throw in your very own celestial star with a certificate for just: $299.99

:-)

 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 04:18:48

Spent the weekend camping at an in-law/friend owned lake in Dutchess county. Talked to a member of the this particular hunting club who is part of the local real-tard loop and got some beautiful stories… just beautiful.

1) New shacks that were selling in southern Dutchess county for 500k in 2005-06 are now priced at 350k and there is no interest except for one notable exception. What exception you ask? “Bottom feeders making offers of 200k” as he called them. I was quite happy to hear the real estate crime syndicate getting put on notice by people who understand the real value of these shacks. This guy also noted that he believe that these places are “worth” 325k-350k but understand he clearly took the real-tard bait long ago, hook line and sinker, Texas rigged style.

2) This same individuals brother (unmarried and a handyman/half carpenter-cash only), bought in 1995 here in the northeast at a reasonable price, is now paying $2500/month on an ARM and can’t refinance. The word is that he cashed out and spent 3 months in Europe, bought a 40k set of wheels and some other junk. This is the first time I’ve heard first hand of spendthrift idiots using their house as collateral.

Take note that this area is commutable to NYC, albeit a long one. There aren’t many high paying jobs locally so paying on a large note requires dual employment in Manhattan. I don’t much give a rats ass about this area as I’m only here for the $$$ but watching the window licking real-tards riding the short bus off the cliff is a fabulous sight indeed.

Comment by bizarroworld
2008-05-27 05:15:56

Some additional NY short bus news:

New York slow to act on housing crisis
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080527/NEWS01/805270338

According to RealtyTrac, about 14,000 foreclosure filings were registered in New York during the first three months of 2008, a 40 percent increase from the same period in 2007.

About 11,600 filings occurred in the top 10 counties in the first quarter; Queens and Brooklyn accounted for 32 percent and Long Island 24 percent.

Usually New York is slow to act legislatively unless it’s to increase taxes, toll and fees, or to promote another moronic “appreciation” day, so this is a positive step in non-legislation (so far).

 
Comment by finnman69
2008-05-27 06:54:34

I was looking in southern Dutchess at the end of 2006. I dodged a huge bullet and never bought in. Of course I took another bullet in the leg and got divorced, but in the long run i’ll win out. My idiot ex wanted to buy even bigger homes we could not afford.

Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 07:22:07

“I was looking in southern Dutchess at the end of 2006.”

Please tell me you discovered this blog after 2006.

 
 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2008-05-27 07:20:25

“Take note that this area is commutable to NYC, albeit a long one. ”

There’s the crux of it, right there. If the area doesn’t have much to justify it’s existence beyond being a far-flung exurb of somewhere else, it’s hosed.

As others are noting here, $4-5 gas hasn’t really affect things as much as many of us thought it might. OTOH the long distance commuters are definitely feeling the pinch, and with the housing deflation, it’s a double whammy.

Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 07:32:55

What choice do long distance commuters have? Unless they can somehow offload the cost onto their employers, they’re screwed. It’s gotta be an awful feeling as a commuting FB’er right now.

Comment by tresho
2008-05-27 07:40:57

What choice do long distance commuters have? Sleep in their trunks in the parking lots where they work from Monday through Thursday?

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Comment by Carlos Cisco
2008-05-27 17:20:51

Oh, we’re talking $5.00 gas now! Give me time to swallow $4.00 gas.

 
 
Comment by HBBLurker
2008-05-27 07:45:39

I was born and raised in Dutchess County, left in 2000, returned last year only to find the entire area has gone to crap but I digress…Good to here your 500k to 350k story, though I know that even 350k is way to high, the NYC jobs are drying up, and most of the poeple who would have paid 350k let alone 500k for anything were westchester poeple selling there 600k shack down there and using the equity to buy a 400k shack in dutchess, that movement is over…In general there has been way to much development in the area and far to little local population to support any of it, the cracks are really starting to show, a lot of commercial real estate is sitting empty, brand new lazy boy store built from ground up going out of buisness thing was only open for like 3 years tops, Multiple McMansions with for sales signs for over 2 years, and add to that toll brothers still building more 350k townhouses no one wants, 500k McMansion no one can afford and the kicker 250k 1 bedroom condo’s that only a fool would buy when they can there buy a small cape code for less then that..The main time bomb is the 4000 subprime loans made in dutchess alone, that’s basicly 4000 forclosures that have happend or will happen, along with all the fools who heloc’d there way into homelessness and gov handouts….

 
Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 08:36:59

How was the camping, buddy? Around here your tent would have been washed away although the temperature was perfect. Glad I decided to stay indoors this weekend.

Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 09:04:39

Quite comfortable in a 5th wheel. :)

 
 
 
Comment by Jwhite
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-05-27 06:31:58

And this is where the Fed SHOULD have already stepped in to stop it. Uh oh. Might be too late now because once inflation expectations take hold, it’s very hard to stop. With the Fed’s dual (oft-conflicting) mandates of employment and currency stability, that can make the job even harder than it is for some other central banks.

Comment by scdave
2008-05-27 09:18:20

I would not be difficult for Paul (Darth Vader) Volker….He would put a spear in the heart of inflation…..

 
 
Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 08:38:44

Trying to contain rising expectations are akin to closing the barn door after the horse has escaped.

Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 08:55:27

***Is* akin

Sorry about the poor English. It’s close to lunchtime and I’m suffering here.

 
 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 04:20:37

May 27 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil rose, trading near $133 a barrel in New York, after a militant attack in Nigeria disrupted supplies from Africa’s largest producer.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aZ3br_noBUPU&refer=energy

Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 06:27:07

Airlines are being forced to pay cash in advance for jet fuel as the major oil companies tighten the screws on an industry that is being crushed by an extraordinary surge in the price of crude oil.

Sources within the airline industry indicate that credit is being denied to most of the leading American carriers and the practice is moving to Europe and Asia. So uncertain is the cash solvency of the industry that jet fuel suppliers insist on prepayments into special bank accounts.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4004371.ece

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-27 07:13:58

I can’t help but wonder what the fallout will be in the tourism industry. As one of the posters responding to that article points out - a heck of a lot of jobs are hanging on this. A weak dollar, awful service, and soaring fares/fees bodes very badly for Europe in particular.

Comment by Brian in Chicago
2008-05-27 08:03:35

There are quite a few countries out there where tourism dollars are the only thing keeping them from falling into chaos.

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Comment by tresho
2008-05-27 07:42:58

I suspect that denial of credit for fuel purchases may be the last straw for many airlines.

Comment by packman
2008-05-27 10:50:57

Conjecture on my part - but it was probably a big factor in the four that just went under.

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Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 11:13:53

Much like how mom-n-pop restaurants have to pay cash up front for their supplies.

Reminds me of a time I ate lunch in a place in Oceanside. A few days later the place was closed. The employees showed and found the place empty (all the furniture and appliances were gone). The owner bailed and left them unpaid.

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Comment by rms
2008-05-27 11:44:49

“The employees showed and found the place empty (all the furniture and appliances were gone). The owner bailed and left them unpaid.”

A la, The Prime Gig w/ Ed Harris and Vince Vaughn?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-05-27 04:21:14

Tune in to NPR this morning. Holy smokes! They just got done with the best, and most informative, piece on the mortgage mess. The lead-in started out with something about all these people taking out loans they couldn’t afford and now looking for someone to blame. They detailed fraud on the part of all parties, including buyers, mortgage brokers and investment banks.

I know there are people that loathe NPR on this blog. It can lean a little to the victimization side. But they sure got it right today. What a great way to start my work week.

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-27 05:49:14

I hope there is a link to it somewhere

Comment by polly
2008-05-27 06:29:53

Look on the Morning Edition page here:

http://www.npr.org/templates/rundowns/rundown.php?prgId=3

First two stories under Tuesday are id’ed as Economy and are about fraud. The one about the loan reviewer that is snitching on her supervisors is especially nice.

Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 07:22:14

yeah, I heard that piece. I couldn’t help but wonder whether she was positioning herself for a job as a professional witness in some of the class action lawsuits comming. I find it sad that I have become so skeptical. That said, I don’t find her allegations at all difficult to believe. And I like the bit at the end when where the commenter pointed out that there’s PLENTY of blame to go around.

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Comment by rms
2008-05-27 18:59:23

“Many thought the reward would outweigh the risk, he says. Everyone “was making massive amounts of money — you’re talking about 25-year-old kids who don’t have a college degree making over a million a year.”"

Question is, will they ever see a jail cell?

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Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-05-27 06:40:02

I won’t count myself amongst the loathers… uh, much anyway. :-) I used to even donate to them but haven’t given a cent after one of their segments with 30 seconds devoted to a GI talking about what his group was doing to rebuild facilities in Iraq, followed by five minutes of a sob story about a poor Iraqi POW who was beaten on the arm (oh my!) for things like cursing and spitting at his US captors — stuff that would have got him shot in most other wars. Even though I was danged skeptical from the outset about the whole adventure, that set of stories made me sick and disgusted with NPR’s slant at the time.

But yes, much as I dislike some of their reporting and enjoy a bit of the rest, this mortgage story they did is a good sign on their part that at least they are willing to concede that a lot of borrowers did this to themselves. Then again, let’s see if they keep up that change in reporting attitude, or whether they fall back to a boatload of further victimization stories.

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-05-27 06:56:27

victims indeed - read WAPO and it’s all your fault !
that NOW show is funded on our dime……

 
Comment by vthousingbear
2008-05-27 07:45:34

“followed by five minutes of a sob story about a poor Iraqi POW who was beaten on the arm (oh my!) for things like cursing and spitting at his US captors — stuff that would have got him shot in most other wars.”

Hell yes. He should have been beaten, sodomized and shot for daring to display anger at those who have illegally invaded his homeland, destroyed is infrastracture and is raping its national resources. How could he?

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 07:46:08

RE: poor Iraqi POW who was beaten on the arm (oh my!) for things like cursing and spitting at his US captors

I got better pics from my fraternity Hell Week in the mid-70’s than those from Abu Grab.

Naked in a pile with panties on the head…

Whooo…I’m shakin’ in my boots.

Comment by chilidoggg
2008-05-27 09:29:23

you got “better” pics? Your house must have been truly “Greek.”

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Comment by M in Michigan
2008-05-27 14:55:51

The difference is that you asked for it. I mean asked literally, as in “Thank you sir, may I have another.”

“…cursing and spitting at his US captors — stuff that would have got him shot in most other wars.”
Wow. Not as bad as obvious war criminals. The U.S. standard should be much higher than that.

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Comment by reuven
2008-05-27 08:13:56

And Hallelujah! They’ve included the BUYERS in the finger-pointing. I’ll listen to the story now…

Comment by reuven
2008-05-27 10:01:23

In the story, Adam Davison states that every buyer he spoke to knew he was taking on more risk than was reasonable….

While I’m not saying the mortgage brokers are blameless, if we are to have a free society where people can make their own buying decisions when it comes to housing, people should accept the consequences. That’s why I continue to be extremely upset about bailout programs directed at buyers.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-27 08:30:59

That story caused me to get outta bed with a BIG grin. Why? Because at long last, NPR gets it.

Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 09:44:26

Writers and producers: probably were renters? ;)

 
 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-27 04:21:27

From a WSJ article on rising sales in depressed markets:

http://tinyurl.com/3jg7ya

“Though Americans remain wary of further drops in housing prices, the data from these areas show that some buyers are trolling for bargains. Sellers “have moved into the acceptance mode” and are pricing homes more realistically, says Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Leesburg, Va. “I think it is the first stage of good news for the market.”"

We’ve seen some examples of banks and builders adjusting pricing, but what of other sellers of existing homes? The continued wishing prices of those other sellers hardly seems to imply “acceptance”.

“For the first four months of this year, home sales in Detroit, excluding suburbs, totaled 3,360, up 48% from a year earlier, according to the Michigan Association of Realtors. The average price dropped 56% to just $20,514. That average is so low because many of the sales involve decrepit homes in neighborhoods with few jobs.”

That average cost of a house in Detroit is about what I pay in rent in a year and far less than the annual cost of ownership in SD. Of course, it is in Detroit. Nothing new here except for the impressive annual price decline from a supposedly (not on the HBB) “non-bubble” area.

“That means some renters previously priced out of the market finally can afford homes — if they can qualify for mortgages. That has become much tougher because lenders have tightened standards, but Mr. Wagner says the growing availability of U.S.-insured loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration is helping.”

This aspect seems to be lost on those touting increased affordability, the inability to complete a purchase. Even if it is supposedly affordable by traditional measures, which in many markets it’s still not, you need to be able to complete the purchase. For that to happen, prices must fall more.

 
Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 04:21:43

In the two months since the government rescue of Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve has built on the fly a new system of monitoring investment banks, radically redefining the central bank’s role overseeing Wall Street.

New York Fed employees are working inside major investment banks every day, alongside the Securities and Exchange Commission staff members who are the firms’ main regulators.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/26/AR2008052601812.html

Comment by palmetto
2008-05-27 05:32:36

Bwahahahaha! Talk about the fox guarding the henhouse. I feel SO much better.

Comment by polly
2008-05-27 06:59:29

You are thinking too much of the fed board of governors and the fed chairman. The general employee at the fed is anythign but a fox. The fed actually hires a lot of new economics graduates who use it as a jumping off point to go work on wall street.

So, more like the eggs guarding the hen house - still not very effective.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 10:22:02

Eggstrordinary thin-shelled eCONomics

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Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 04:22:49

breaking Uncle Buck:

Hedge funds and other investors made bundles of money in the 1990s betting currency pegs around the world would break. They are at it again, only this time they are gambling currencies will soar, not plummet.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121184187238821161.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-05-27 05:56:52

Yeah, this was quite inevitable.

 
Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 09:25:22

I was on vacation in London in 1992 when the Pound failed to stay within it’s assigned range in the ECU (the ur-Euro). It dropp like a rock, similar to what the dollar is doing now.

Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 09:46:47

Dollar is up 7% against my foreign target currency since January when I spent thousands of the sodding things.

 
 
 
Comment by Jwhite
Comment by Asparagus
2008-05-27 06:16:30

The ratings are junk,
LIBOR is junk,

Confidence is soaring.

Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 09:48:18

What is the ultra inverse confidence ETF again? ;)

Comment by chilidoggg
2008-05-27 21:48:15

A M M O

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Comment by Jwhite
 
Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 04:27:21

North Texas may not be bearing the brunt of the national housing bust, but some local businesses are feeling the pain.

Several local homebuilders have gone out of business. Others are scaling back their operations, cutting jobs as revenue and profit fall.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/052708dnbuseconhome.39c70d5.html

Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 06:06:52

They are bearing the brunt. They just haven’t admitted or accepted it yet.

 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 04:27:42

Meredith Whitney interviewed on Bloomberg Radio this morning, roughly 10 minutes. Her comments were insightful. Interestingly, she indicated and confirmed my opinion that the entire housing runup began in 2000-01 with the onset of securitization/off the books lending, not later in 2004 when securitization supposedly began. She stated that on the books lending, rather, banks lending their own capital is/was only 10% of the total mortgage market, the remaining 90% lent was off the books or more accurately, other peoples money which the bank didn’t give a rats ass about. She contended that the securization/lending model primary fundamental was….. you guess it, housing prices always go up. Of course she acknowledged they were wrong (ya think?) and lending will tighten even further considering banks are using their own capital. She didn’t indicated whether off books lending would return anytime soon.

Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-27 13:19:51

So would regulation have prevented this? I keep thinking that the innovations outrun our ability to control them.

 
 
Comment by ZEKEinVABeach
2008-05-27 04:35:25

Good morning all. On saturday I noticed an advertisement in the local Virginia Beach, Va newspaper advertising a new housing community in Elizabeth City, NC. Elizabeth City is located approximately 38 miles from my home in the Great Bridge area of Tidewater. The homes advertised were priced from $175 to $225K. A comperable (on paper) home in my area would most likely be priced 33% higher.
Under normal circumstances I would not have been interested, however this add offered a $30 gas card and a $30 meal at a very nice resturant that we have visited several times. I had the opportunity to stay home and trim the honeydo list or take a drive and have lunch. We arrived at about 1:00.
There were 4 or 5 spec homes open that the agent walked us through. Absolute crap in both style and construction. I have never seen anything that compared in terms of a bad example of workmanship, materials and design. We did not spare the agent our
honest assessment of their “executive homes”. Unfortunately we were the only potential customers there so we could not share our views with other “customers”. The local newspaper purportedly has a circulation of 775 K customers and I expected huge lines of hungry lookers. Not so. This builder apparently cannot even pay people to tour the developement.
20 minutes later we were out of there with our gas card and dinner cupon. We had great pasta primavera with shrimp, desert and a glass of wine on the construction industry. We may return if they offer another meal with private limo transportation. Otherwise not much chance. Things may be just starting to get interesting.

Comment by Tim
2008-05-27 06:15:27

Not as bad as I am yet. Friends and family think I am insane because, for the last 15 yrs or so, every trip I take for more than a week I spend at least one morning or afternoon checking out local real estate prices, and never pass up a real estate flier on a walk. Once I sold all my holdings and began talk of the collapse, yet still never gave up my need to know current pricing, in their minds the insanity was confirmed.

It gets really scary when I visit my old hoods and my friends say things you are not going to believe what that one sold for, and I say things like it sold for x $s in 2003 and y in 2007 and I am not making it up, but actually know although I havent lived there for several years.

I dont even get a free meal out of the deal. Good going.

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2008-05-27 06:53:49

Thanks for the update! I had a co-worker at a previous job that bought in EC, and commuted to downtown Norfolk everyday. The drive started to get to him, and he eventually gave the finger to the company and moved to Raleigh, NC to work for EMC. I remember him saying it was the only affordable place. He was a software engineer who had moved to Hampton Roads from Colorado (or California).

I think it’s still way too early to even think about buying in Homicide Roads. There are quite a few condos for sale (blech). Plenty for-sale, but I’m understanding that stuff is moving. There are supposedly lots of knife catchers. I host a website for a REO guy, and at the peak over the past 6 years he had 13 listings in his database. Now it’s generally over 99. And I understand the offers are rolling in quickly, fools think they are getting a deal.

 
Comment by joe
2008-05-27 08:26:46

I’ll be down that way in a few weeks. What’s the name & location of the development/developer? Is there a website for it? It would be nice to defray the costs of the trip a little bit. The GF is from there and always hints about moving there, but I’d like to see things first had before making anydecisions. Modern American $h!t construction concerns and disturbs me as well. Thanks.

Comment by ZEKEinVABeach
2008-05-28 04:22:30

Will have to try and find it in the old newspaper. You can attempt to find it in the Virginia Pilot online if you feel adventuresome. Will advise

Comment by joe
2008-05-28 11:40:42

Thnaks. I checked the VA Pilot’s online edition. No need to go out of your way if its not handy. Joe

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Comment by firefox user
2008-05-27 16:25:57

Heh. A builder up in St Lucie County was throwing a BBQ picnic this weekend. Bring the kids and family kind of thing. Thanks for the heads up - might be worth it to buy the paper for a few months so I know when to stop in for gift cards and gas cards.

By the way, Broward County employers seem to be giving people who carpool and use transit $50 gas cards.

Some of my California colleagues are reporting “bike to work” incentives and give-aways.

 
 
Comment by peter a
2008-05-27 04:38:43

test

 
Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 04:40:58

Peter Schiff:
Peter Schiff: “Poorly concealed behind contrived government statistics, the signs of America’s falling standard of living are everywhere; all one has to do is look. We are unloading SUVs for less desirable compacts, and are paying more to fly on crowded planes (where we pay to check luggage and dine only on what we bring onboard). We drink our lattes at McDonalds or not at all, and we increasingly forego dining out, trips to the mall, and vacations, just so we can scrape together enough to fill our gas tanks and kitchen pantries, pay taxes and insurance, or make credit card, mortgage or car payments. The collective belt tightening is simply the down payment on the Government’s massive bailout of Wall Street investment banks and mortgage lenders. As the Fed creates money to buy bad mortgages and other shaky securities held by banks and brokerage firms, the value of the savings and wages of everyone on Main Street will continue to fall. As a result, the costs of products previously taken for granted have begun to bite.”

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10328.htm

Comment by InJupiter
2008-05-27 06:36:13

OH, the INHUMANITY!!!!

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-27 07:55:25

Declining standard of living? It all really depends on one’s expectations and perspective. Even ten years ago I didn’t think $300k condos, $50k SUVs, and $5 cups of coffee were good ideas. What’s the B.F.D. Mr. Schiff?

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 06:36:22

RE: “Poorly concealed behind contrived government statistics, the signs of America’s falling standard of living are everywhere; all one has to do is look.

Went to DC over the weekend with my son who hadn’t been before.

Nothing more than a barricaded armed camp with armed, nasty tempered, uniformed types everywhere.

Kinda like Berlin before the fall.

The White House even employs a pair who stand on the roof.
with binocs and sniper rifles.

Quite stirring when observed from Lafayette Park.

At first one might think this is a reaction to terrorism, but now as
our standard of living gets flushed down the toilet, I’m beginning to think the armed guards are a show of force when the rabble and hoi poli begin to realize they have been sold down the road to financial oblivion by the penthouse occupying politicos.

What no bread? Why can’t they eat cake!

Comment by CrackerJim
2008-05-27 08:48:19

The White House roof force has been there for many years.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-27 10:51:18

Yup,

I noticed them when I was there in 1999.

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Comment by chilidoggg
2008-05-27 09:37:33

Reminds me of the Saturday Night Live skit right after the 2000 election where Dick Cheney was addressing the nation: first he tells everyone making less than 40,000 to leave the room; then he tells everyone making less than 1 million to leave the room; then he tell everyone making less than 10 million to leave the room! You’d better get some extra security for your gated communities, there’s gonna be a lot of pissed off poor people out there! I forget the exact details.

Comment by Homoaner
2008-05-27 10:11:29

My favorite bumper sticker: Arm The Unemployed.

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Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 09:59:14

I spent a few minutes yesterday reading the article from the Wikipedia front page about Reinhard Heydrich.

Berlin 45/Washington and Nazi/Bush comparisons are about as meaningful as Arabs claiming the US was at war with them for over 20 years before 2001. Laughable.

Are you searched entering the mall by armed guards? Are there battle rifle and shotgun armed guards INSIDE the malls paid by individual stores? Does every bank door come with one of both? Can you use your cell phone inside a bank without an armed guard telling you not to? News Flash: You aren’t even up to the standards of living in the Philippines yet…

Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 18:05:22

RE: Are you searched entering the mall by armed guards? Are there battle rifle and shotgun armed guards INSIDE the malls paid by individual stores? Does every bank door come with one of both? Can you use your cell phone inside a bank without an armed guard telling you not to? News Flash: You aren’t even up to the standards of living in the Philippines yet…

One hand held rocket launch into the White House and/or Capital Building, and we’ll be there IMHO.

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Comment by az_lender
2008-05-27 06:51:12

Well, one can make Wall Street the villain, but it’s enabled by Main Street. I’d call the massive belt-tightening a down payment on the non-productive retirement of tens of millions of Americans who all thought “investment” (read, “gambling”) was a way to secure their future well-being.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 06:57:13

He means “trying to unload SUVs”. Just as with houses, selling something requires interestred buyers.

Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 09:31:44

Well of course the FB are upside down on ther SUV too…

Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 11:16:26

No doubt. There are plenty of brand new, under 5K miles Suburbans for sale in the Denver cars.com. Most are asking close to what they paid (40K or more) when in reality they are worth much, much less.

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Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-27 09:14:16

They they go again with that “we” business.

BTW, do these fools realize can actually make their own caffeine fix at home? People used to do it all the time.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 11:56:21

“As a result, the costs of products previously taken for granted have begun to bite.”

My wife has been complaining as of late about products whose prices have stayed the same while the package size has shrunk. At the end of the day, the unit price = (package price) / (quantity of package contents) is still inflating.

 
 
Comment by yogurt
 
Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 04:49:25

I expect bad news in the financial markets. The lead story on CNN is Homeland Security says no security in ports…WMD could come ashore…and the NYTimes lead is border agents bribed into working for narco gangsters and other assorted bums.
Gee, Homeland Security ramping up a little diversionary fear?

Comment by bizarroworld
2008-05-27 05:39:13

It’s getting closer to the general election, so all of these stories about national security are bound to rear its ugly head. I think it’s getting to the time for Homeland Security to raise the color warning, just as they did on numerous occasions before the last general election. From a 2005 article:

Tom Ridge admitted that he often argued with top administration officials who pressed for the color-coded terror threat levels to be raised — level changes that, according to polls, routinely translated into political gain for Republicans.
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2005/05/11/terror/

And:
OLBERMANN: The term we employ is the nexus of politics and terror. It does not imply that there is no terror, but it also does not deny that there is politics. And it refuses to assume that counterterror measures in this country are not being influenced by politics.

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Olbermann_The_Nexus_of_politics_and_0815.html

Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 06:08:14

One of the reasons I am trying to resist trading back and forth on puts for 3-5% swings. So not worth it if you’re out when something happens.

Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 08:43:09

TX, any thoughts on BUD?

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Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 09:28:34

Tastes like Rocky Mountain goat pi$$

hahahah

you mean the stock?

 
Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 12:39:40

Yeah…the stock. I’m not much of a beer drinker (or Bud smoker for that matter)

 
Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 14:45:00

Broke out of a cup and handle in a big way. Would have been a nice buy a week ago. I wouldn’t mess with it long.

 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 06:10:30

As always, Olbermann nails it. Ever noticed how he has a tendency to make Bubbas feel like retards without even trying?

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 05:42:49

Isn’t Larry Yun director of Home-Land Security?

or is he just the Truth Fairy?

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 06:43:19

RE: Homeland Security says no security in ports…WMD could come ashore…

Gobbels propaganda ramping up a job works program for Security Police Nazi’s to accommodate the legions of unemployed created by the coming Depression.

Screw repairing bridges or dams.

Let everyone hang around a street corner with a gun, and retire with a full FED pension and health benefits after 10 years.

Comment by scdave
2008-05-27 09:36:45

Exactly HD…..

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2008-05-27 06:52:05

Yeah, they have plenty of folks standing around east bumfuck Iowa watching granny get strip searched before “allowing” her to get on a puddle jumper to Chicago but heaven forbid we shut down our southern border or beef up port security.
This is starting to smell like an excuse of some sorts.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-05-27 07:56:32

OK, then what “homeland security” changes, if any, do you think Obama and a Democrat congress will enact?

Not “what would you like them to enact” but what do you think they’ll enact.

Comment by Dani W
2008-05-27 09:19:45

It’s a Democratic congress.

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Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 11:21:00

Bill,
lets kill Homeland Security and fire all the useless fed workers…they have failed to achieve anything meaningful for all the tens of billions spent…can’t even produce the new passports, now scheduled for sometime in 2010 or 2011. We have immigration and border control laws on the books, let’s enforce them. We have a border wall law…let’s build the freaking thing.
Enough of Chertoff and the biggest fed boondoggle ever created.

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Comment by kirisdad
2008-05-27 14:06:54

Yeah, we haven’t had a terrorist attack since 9/11/01.

 
Comment by hoz
2008-05-27 14:21:11

And we spend more money each year on dubious security. In the mean time the number of terrorist activities against Americans has been shifted abroad. Read.
Re-Thinking Counter-Terrorism
by Bjørn Lomborg and Todd Sandler
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/lomborg26

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by yogurt
2008-05-27 04:56:06

High RE prices are driving young people away from BC (Bubble Country), Canada and big business is concerned about it. Sound familiar?

Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the Business Council of B.C.:

However, for employers, the high cost of housing is becoming “a growing concern in terms of what might attract and retain people.”

The Lower Mainland, Victoria and Kelowna are all areas that have seen dramatic increases in housing prices, without commensurate increases in incomes that would pay for such housing.

“This is not a Tokyo or London or New York,” Finlayson said, where there are lots of high paying jobs.

“Incomes are okay [in B.C.],” he added, “but the average [B.C.] household income is modest. There are several other places [in Canada] that have higher average incomes where housing costs are half or less [compared with B.C.].”

http://tinyurl.com/3lrv6w

 
Comment by BW
2008-05-27 05:04:24

Most of the American media still seems to be in deep denial. For every article on the housing meltdown I see three about how this or that minor statistical upturn means a rebound is here. Luckily, people abroad seem to be a bit more willing to face reality:

http://business.scotsman.com/economics/End-to-credit-crisis-is.4118190.jp

“End to credit crisis is just an American pipedream”

Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 06:26:38

They should take a look in the mirror before throwing stones around here.

 
 
Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-05-27 05:07:26

Given that most of our economic, energy, immigration, and judicial policies already seem to have been formulated on Mars or beyond; I cast my vote with the majority above.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-05-27 05:10:35

The plan was to bankrupt the country, and then have everyone who matters move to Idaho. It has been superceded by a new plan to wreck the planet, and have everyone who matters move to a new one.

Good thing that includes so few people.

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-05-27 05:09:03

Some of you were surprised a while back that “Taxachusetts” doesn’t live up to its name. A spreadsheet with the state and local tax burden (by type of tax) as a share of personal income by state is attached to this post:

http://www.r8ny.com/blog/larry_littlefield/census_fy_2006_public_finance_data_the_spreadsheets.html

Data is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-05-27 06:05:07

and they have FREEer healthcare- in extreme red already
lefties take note

Comment by WT Economist
2008-05-27 06:34:10

We have much higher taxes in NYC, and all we get for it is debt service, pensions, and public employee retiree health care. That and money transferred to the rest of the state and nation.

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-05-27 06:42:05

my friends in upstate want to succeed
and cut off your water !
some have those teir one pensions, glad I live in the South now

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-27 09:25:20

“my friends in upstate want to succeed
and cut off your water !
some have those teir one pensions, glad I live in the South now”

I’ve heard secession sentiment expressed too, taxme! Cracks me up. So many local school districts would fold up and close w/o the state money. And this place is grant central. I don’t think I’ve attended one meeting where someone didn’t mention applying for state grants to survive. Selective reasoning.

 
 
Comment by HBBLurker
2008-05-27 08:02:54

The tri-state(ny,nj,ct) in general is doomed, the taxes are out of control and will only get worse, good paying jobs are leaving for cheaper states left and right, the young and educated are moving to areas with more jobs and way cheaper cost of living. Eventual all that will be left is a bunch of old poeple living off pensions and then who will should the load for all these taxes….you know whats wrong with NY, simple example, coworkers sister in laws friend is as exotic dancer buy trade, in anycase also has a bastard kid, was living in florida which would not subsidize her 100 percent , so she purposely moved to NY to get full state sposorship and now gets all kinds of “aid”…

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Comment by WT Economist
2008-05-27 09:06:41

(Eventual all that will be left is a bunch of old poeple living off pensions and then who will shoulder the load for all these taxes)

We have a state income tax, a local NYC income tax and, if you are “self-employed” like our host an unincorporated business tax.

But all retirement income — pension, 401K and Social Security — is exempt from all those taxes at age 65 or over. They pay nothing, even if they are a CEO with a million dollar pension.

For ex-govenment employees, the retirement income is tax-free AT ANY AGE!

 
Comment by scdave
2008-05-27 09:48:22

I never knew that…That is friggen amazing…Thanks for the Info WT….

 
Comment by kirisdad
2008-05-27 14:20:12

NYS gov’t pensions are federally taxed as income. No state tax unless you move and then are subject to new state’s income tax.

 
 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 06:28:47

Oh my word. You mean to say that the GOP rhetoric and tax whining was nothing more than lies over the last 30 years???? You don’t say!!!

Comment by WT Economist
2008-05-27 08:00:55

Hey, the data is from FY 2006, not 30 years ago.

Some folks in NY consider Mass a model because of the way taxes have fallen relative to income without the quality of education falling. Of course, Boston’s regional transit agency is so deep in debt it is basically bankrupt. But SO IS OURS!

Comment by lostcontrol
2008-05-27 12:29:18

The Feds can spend a fortune on the war on terror, how about they cut out a portion for mass transit?

All it takes is the will to upgrade the US’s infrastructure. Also, how about upgrading rail road tracts to insure that people are not faced with mass transit throughout the US. Why is it that France, Germany, England and Japan can do it and we can’t or wont?

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Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-27 13:31:35

Because we’re a much larger country with very few compact transportation corridors that would actually pay for themselves?

 
 
 
Comment by sf jack
2008-05-27 09:46:51

Hey exeter!

Vermont = Number One In Property Taxes!

Way to go downstate carpetbaggers running Montpelier with your social engineering programs!

Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 09:58:27

You keep harping on it but never provide any evidence that VT has the highest property taxes relative to income.

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Comment by sf jack
2008-05-27 10:32:57

What? I need to provide anything like that to prove Vermont has high taxes and little to show for it?

Are you saying that since VT is # 1 in property taxes it must also be # 1 in income?

Don’t make me laugh - it hurts already!

 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 11:49:19

Provide something except rhetoric….. hmmm… I nearly forgot rhetoric is what we’ve come to expect from tax whiners.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 09:21:14

FWIW, the Wyoming entries are skewed by oil and nat gas production taxes. These taxes are “exported” to other states.

Otherwise, it was good to see Colorado near the bottom of the lists. Viva TABOR!

 
 
Comment by Jen
2008-05-27 05:18:45

I was out running some errands on Monday - I expected to see lots of people out at the Memorial Day sales … stores were empty everywhere I stopped. This was in Baltimore County, just north of the city …

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-05-27 07:03:53

Well, what we found with our family and friends is that the weather was so stupendously good all three days that nobody even wanted to go inside to do shopping. It was all pool, sports, and barbecue. So maybe the retailers can now blame their woes on GOOD weather!

 
 
Comment by cynicalgirl
2008-05-27 05:39:38

Heard an interesting story over the weekend. My friend works with a typical FB who has a loan which is about to reset. She was two months behind. Lender is Freemont. She helped her cow orker write a letter asking for mercy. Two months later, no response, FB made a phone call. They are in the process of being sold and the employees could care less since they are losing their jobs. They had 4000 requests like hers, only got to 1000 before they shut the doors and handed everything over to the new owner. FB got lucky, they converted her to 4% fixed 30 year.

Not sure if this is typical, or the person just got extremely lucky.

Comment by Kim
2008-05-27 07:05:15

She is damn lucky to have received such a generous bailout. Even folks with stellar credit can’t get 4% 30-year fixed on the open market.

 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-05-27 07:06:39

4% fixed for 30 years? An FB no longer! Whichever disgruntled employee handled that loan modification must have really, really hated the bank that employed ‘em. How would you like be the financer holding that note?

And if this ex-FB doesn’t keep up with the payments now, she deserves every ounce of foreclosure misery she gets, since that would be a sure indication that the house is waaaaaay to pricey for her. (Hopefully she will keep up payments now and turn herself around.)

Comment by HBBLurker
2008-05-27 07:53:26

WTF, this is beyond angering, where is my 4 percent 30 yr fixed morgage, shoot I can’t even get a 4 percent online savings acount anymore, meanwhile this dead beat and many like her get’s a 4 percent 30 yr note, my only solice is that poeple who not good with money tend to not change, so figuer she’ll end up homeless anyway….

Comment by az_owner
2008-05-27 10:46:24

Don’t worry about it - she refinanced probably 150% of what the house was really worth.

So let’s say she refi’ed 200k at 4% for 30 years = $955/month

You buy the same house down the street for $140k, at 6% for 30 years = $840/month. Who’s got the better deal now?

And maybe you can refi again later under 6%. Low principal ALWAYS beats low rate.

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Comment by cynicalgirl
2008-05-27 11:04:50

I was wondering about the LTV, but I didn’t ask. This person is a serial refinancer, so the outcome is likely that she will eventually default.

 
 
Comment by Max
2008-05-27 12:29:23

“Not only bad things happen to good people, but good things happen to bad people!” (Mad TV, The Atheist Priest)

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Comment by Rental Watch
2008-05-27 13:12:53

Let’s not get too excited about what a great deal the FB got. It is highly likely that the bank did the right thing, and I’m not sure the FB did.

If the prevailing rate for a 30-year fixed conforming loan is 5.81% (per Bloomberg), then the bank should be able to sell the new, 4% loan for ~83% of par (discount the 30-year, 4% payment cash flow stream to the present at 5.81% and you get 83 cents on the dollar).

I’m assuming that home prices fell more than 20% in this market?

In other words, buying a home for 80% of the FB’s debt amount at today’s 5.81% rate would give you a lower payment each month than 4% of 100%, AND you have a better argument to get a lower property tax bill.

Of course, there are other considerations (could the FB buy another house with a very recent credit blemish, have home prices fallen more than 20% in their market, how expensive is it to move, etc., etc.).

Bottom line is that if her home on the open market is worth 20% less than the mortgage or more, the lender did the right thing for their shareholders, and the FB may not have done the right thing financially.

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 06:09:56


Case-Shiller Home-Price Trend Since the Credit Crisis Began

The effects of the credit Crisis began showing in transactions that were initiated in July 2008. Case-Shiller monthly reports look at transaction over the 3-month period. Therefore, the first report that contained only the transactions since July 2007 was September 2007. The Annual Rate of price change since the September report for various metros and composites are as follows (6-Month Annual Rate).

____Metro 6-M Annual Rate%

Phoenix - AZ -33.8%
Los Angeles -33.9%
San Diego -30.7%
San Francisco -33.5%
___Denver -15.3%
Washington -22.1%
___Miami -30.0%
Tampa - FL -24.8%
Atlanta - GA -15.5%
__Chicago -16.4%
___Boston -13.8%
__Detroit - MI -25.6%
Minneapolis -25.0%
Charlotte - NC -5.3%
Las Vegas -37.1%
New York -9.2%
Cleveland -17.8%
Portland - OR -11.8%
Dallas - TX -9.8%
Seattle - WA -13.5%
Composite-10 -23.5%
Composite-20 -22.6%

Jas

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 06:21:30

Phoenix rising…

As in the city rising from the ashes of the devastation caused by the real estate bubble?

 
Comment by bob
2008-05-27 06:53:47

Wow. Seattle worse than Dallas and almost as bad as Boston.

However, the koolaid drinkers here argue that it counts the 3 county area and not special areas in Seattle, Bellevue and Redmond.

Comment by Rental Watch
2008-05-27 13:18:52

Same story in the Bay Area, CA.

First - Yes, Stockton has been hit, but not Pleasanton.
Then - Yes, Pleasanton has been hit, but not Fremont.
Then - Yes, Fremont has been hit, but not Belmont/Burlingame.
Then - Yes, Belmont/Burlingame has been hit, but not Menlo Park.

This is where we are now. Can anyone guess what’s coming next?

Everywhere that people needed to borrow money to buy their homes will be effected. All real estate is relative.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 07:03:20

Those first four numbers on the list are whoppers, and should give encouragement for bottom callers, as a 30+ pct annual rate of decline is not sustainable in coastal California, given that everyone wants to live there.

Comment by bob
2008-05-27 08:31:35

Sorry. are you being sarcastic?

Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-27 09:14:51

I think he means within a stone’s throw of the beach.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2008-05-27 13:22:32

Hate to burst a bubble (pardon the pun), but in areas with growing populations, generally speaking, 30% year-on-year declines is just as unsustainable as 30% year-on-year increases.

It’s just that everyone on this blog was surprised that the unsustainable run-up continued for as long as it did.

Those with brokerage licenses will be surprised at how long the slide down lasts.

 
 
Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 11:51:46

Jas, some typos in your description make it a bit confusing.

I assume these are annualized values based on the drop through the 6 months of reports from Sep 07 to March 08 ?

 
 
Comment by Little Al
2008-05-27 06:13:31

A request for advise here. One of my PFF accounts is coming due this week, and I would like advise on strong banks or conservative foreign investments that would conserve my money. In other words, how do I get safely out of the dollar in this environment to avoid falling dollar while waiting for further house-value erosion and ensure my principle is not jeopardized?

Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 06:28:13

The 64K question. My way of dealing with it is trying to beat the erosion rate significantly by market timing US stocks and indices.

Hoz is the furrin expert.

Comment by Tom
2008-05-27 06:34:00

And you have to pay taxes on you “inflated” gains, even if in real terms you are breaking even.

Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 07:17:40

I factor that in. It takes “significant” outperformance.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 06:42:12

It’s a no-brainer…

Just buy physical Gold (the real deal) and sit back and watch the Dollar implode before your very eyes.

In a prelude to a $uicide, the $ is on a ledge of the 86th floor, and other currencies are on the ground trying to talk it down, but all it does it lose more self-esteem and sense of self-worth…

When at last the act is done and the jumper leaps to it’s fate, how many currencies are going to get creamed when it lands upon them?

Gold is the only monetary instrument not tied to the idea of Mutually Assured Monetary Destruction.

How cool is that?

Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 07:03:37

People are afraid to buy gold (too scary!). They prefer the ’safety’ of manipulated fiatscos issued by governments run by morons such as our own GWB and the European hydra (how many governments does it take to run one currency?). Oh well, a fool and his money are lucky to get together in the first place. ;)

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Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 07:36:54

This comment was not directed at you, Al. Good luck.

 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2008-05-27 07:41:17

I’d buy arable land in an overpriced market before I’d buy gold. At least I can live on it and produce something of value (food).

Gold is just another friggin’ commodity, and I’m not smart enough to time its moves. And if everything really does go to sh**, a bit of shiny metal is useless to me. I’d rather have a few dead trees, at least I can burn them for fuel. I can think of at least 100 other commodities I’d rather have in my possession at that point.

 
Comment by packman
2008-05-27 11:01:49

When the SHTF - I don’t think the grocery store will accept dead trees.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 11:36:50

Nor dead presidents, made out of dead legal timber

 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2008-05-27 12:02:26

You apparently didn’t read what I wrote, as far as food goes, I’ll barter from my own surplus, that I grew on my own land. Is gold useful as a plant fertilzer?

If I made a living manufacturing electrical connectors, I’d be real worried about gold as I would need it for plating connector pins. But I don’t, and I’m not much on jewelry, so… it does look nice, though.

My point is, as I lose faith in the dollar, there’s lots of places I’m turning. Gold is useless to me unless I know how to trade it, which I don’t.

 
Comment by packman
2008-05-27 12:45:53

“I’ll barter from my own surplus, that I grew on my own land.”

What if you’re not allowed to own (or can’t afford to own, due to property taxes) your own land?

Plus - there’s a good chance that guy who wants to sell you an axe doesn’t need your surplus vegetables. He’d rather have your money. What will you do then?

I realize we’re going to the back-to-the-X-age extreme here, but IMO the principles still apply. Maybe we should say “computer” instead of “axe”. Most likely most if the SHTF most bartering will be done via things like eBay. eBay doesn’t accept vegetables. eBay doesn’t accept gold either - but it’s much more likely to change the policy to accept gold than to to accept vegetables.

 
Comment by technovelist
2008-05-27 12:56:10

Gold is useless to me unless I know how to trade it, which I don’t.

The way you trade gold in our current situation is very simple: buy it and hold it. When the “dollar” collapses and is replaced by a gold-backed currency, you turn in your gold for the new currency.

Hope that helps.

 
 
 
Comment by SWAMI_E
2008-05-27 07:25:11

My brokerage had a money market account in ten different banks. Then the brokerage was taken over by one of the big banks and all of the money market funds were funneled into this one bank’s accounts.
This big bank is up to its eyeballs in the mortgage meltdown.
To me this was just an easy way for the big bank to get access to all of that cash; easier than getting deposits from new customers.
Whenever you buy and sell at this firm, your money is moving in and out of these accounts.
Sure maybe you can make money in the stock market until one day your money is no longer accessible.
I got out. I’ve seen the light.
Physical only.
Prepare.

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 06:45:00


I think that the USD has bottomed relative to European currencies, e.g., Euro and Swiss franc. There are high risks in all the stock markets around the world. Safety should be your number one aim.

I am a speculators but I have been partly in the most despised asset — the long-term US Treasuries! Inflationists keep the Treasuries a despised asset class, something a contrarian looks for. I expect the yield on 10-Year USTs to fall below 2%, i.e., prices of the USTs to rise. People overplay the effect of high crude oil prices on the long-term inflation. Labor is 65-70% of inflation equation while crude oil is only 5%.

Jas

Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 06:59:48

Even if you are right (and I don’t think you are) about the USD bottoming against foreign currencies, the USD will continue to fall against real goods and the renimbi. Good luck with microscopic T-bond yields. You will need it.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 23:47:40

Jas –

My thought is that when the economy really tanks, crude will drop in response, due to a slackening of demand when consumer credit really dries up (the drying process is well underway already). I don’t expect any reflation efforts from the Fed to be able to fully offset the drop in demand resulting from the end of the home equity cashout ATM machine era.

When oil prices fall, the dollar will strengthen, while speculative demand for other commodities (e.g., gold) will drop as well, as who needs an inflation hedge when (mild) deflation is in play?

Just my hunches here, no more nor less…

 
 
Comment by cactus
2008-05-27 07:33:49

“conservative foreign investments that would conserve my money.”

RPIBX T. Rowe Price INTERNATIONAL BOND

heres a foriegn bond fund that could help against the falling dollar

I sold most of my gold and oil stocks. Gold stocks have gone down since I sold but oil is way up!! I think a Recession is here and commodities will fall with demand. Dollar will fall as well in a recession.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 07:43:10

“Dollar will fall as well in a recession.”

Is this just your opinion, or do you have historical data that suggests this normally happens? (Note that Bernanke aggressively eased monetary policy on the first sign of weakness, and the dollar fell by a large amount in response…)

Comment by cactus
2008-05-27 12:12:46

my opinion. I really don’t know what the dollar will do but have made bets it would go down. I figured like many on this Blog that the FED will try and reinflate the RE bubble and ignore a crashing dollar and commodity inflation.

My view is the FED will fail to reinflate RE. The FED says its done cutting rates but I don’t know about that ?

“(Note that Bernanke aggressively eased monetary policy on the first sign of weakness, and the dollar fell by a large amount in response…)”

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 23:40:52

Many true believers on this blog believe that BB’s game plan is to crash the dollar forever, which would make those who are betting on the imminent demise of Uncle Buck soon look very smart. My subjective belief is that it is in the Fed’s interest to create breathing room for banks by inflating to a degree, but that eventually (in the interest of self-preservation) the Fed will be forced to defend the dollar against further declines by whatever available means. Whether it will work out or not amounts to a game of pitch and toss, IMO.

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 08:02:00

Ha. I’m up nearly 10% on DUG, the inverse ETF for oil. I can’t remember who here gave me that but I owe ya!

Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 08:06:01


I never speculate in commodities (I did buy puts on XOM), but I think that the current Commodities Bubble is like the tech and housing bubbles that preceded it. Easy Money has perpetuated serial bubbles, IMO.

Jas

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-05-27 08:55:59

“Easy Money has perpetuated serial bubbles, IMO.”

What you call serial bubbles…Sir Greenspent calls: “Financial Innovation” ;-)

What you call Easy Money…Ben Bernanke calls: “Low kinematic viscosity of script distribution supporting trickle-down economic stimulus… plan c”. :-)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Kim
2008-05-27 07:59:00

WIP and BWX

 
 
Comment by LA Friends In Deed
2008-05-27 06:21:24

I just wanted to bring attention to a website that came to my attention recently called “AngryRenter.com” http://www.angryrenter.com/“>www.angryrenter.com . It seems that they are organizing a petition drive of responsible renters who stayed out of the home buying frenzy because they saw what was happenning as irresponsible, and want to express voice to congress that they do not want congress to bail out irresponsible home buyers. And that if any money should be provided it should go to responsible home buyers, whom stayed out of the market and continued to save their money as renters.

Thoughts?

Comment by atlanta_renter
2008-05-27 16:17:57

I’ve already signed up.

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 06:25:40


REAL ((inflation-adjusted) Case-Shiller Home Price Change since December 1995

____Metro REAL Price Chance Since dec’05

Phoenix - AZ 48.0%
Los Angeles 99.8%
San Diego 84.6%
San Francisco 78.9%
___Denver 24.5%
Washington 63.1%
___Miami 71.4%
Tampa - FL 49.1%
Atlanta - GA 8.9%
__Chicago 26.4%
___Boston 57.3%
Detroit - MI -10.2%
Minneapolis 32.3%
Charlotte 6.7%
Las Vegas 34.9%
New York 77.7%
Cleveland -12.2%
Portland 44.7%
Dallas - TX NA
Seattle - WA 71.8%
Composite-10 72.0%
Composite-20 NA

Jas

Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 10:05:32

Dallas - TX NA

That’s us all right, old “Not applicable” ;)

Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 10:47:44


Actually, Not Available. Lost in the storm?

Jas

 
Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 11:14:34

-3.3 See the Morning Snooze

 
Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 14:18:58

Dallas was one of the newer 10 of the current 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller that was not yet added to the system in 1995. We’re probably lucky they don’t go back that far. ;)

 
 
 
Comment by Tweedle Dee
2008-05-27 06:32:38

Soros says the correction is only half done and it will overshoot to undervalue housing before it gets better.

Today’s numbers show a drop of about 20% thus far. If Soros is right we’ll see at least a 40% decline, maybe a 50% overall decline.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4LbdWxjwlu0&refer=home

Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 06:40:08

50% haircut is a given. The real question is how will we get there….. half of the decline to nominal price cuts and inflate away the other half?

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 07:31:40

The other real question is how to know what inflation was, given a fog of suspect inflation calculations.

 
Comment by yogurt
2008-05-27 08:03:25

Inflating away the other half only works if wages keep up with inflation and interest rates don’t go up.

Just how likely is that?

Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 09:03:15

Considering real wages have fallen, not at all. The forecast is quite gloomy for those who hang on every last word of the RE voodoo priests.

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Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 09:39:53

Well in an inflationary spiral real wages usually do fall behind. Even people who DO get regular pay raises get them less often than prices go up. But people are paying their mortgages with nominal, worth less than before dollars. Even if REAL wages are falling, so long as the NOMINAL wages that they pay their mortgage with are rising they should be okay, if they have a fixed rate mortgage.

 
 
 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2008-05-27 10:03:54

There will be no wage inflation.

The only option is downward spiral of housing prices… well, that or a huge government bailout that triggers hyperinflation, in which case buying housing will be the last on our “to-do” list, after buying a cart to use to haul around mountains of nearly worthless dollars.

Comment by jim A
2008-05-27 10:32:06

Well the difficulty is that the amount of dollar devaluation that would allow wage inflation for those who compete against moderately- to un- skilled foreign workers is much greather than that which causes a significant rise in the price of imported goods. So instead of rising wages, most American workers are seeing stagnant wages, rising prices and deflating asset values. This is likely to get quite ugly.

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Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 06:49:25


It will need 50% price decline from the peak for the prices to be where they were in December 1995 after adjusting for inflation. And some areas we would need more than 60% decline from the peak price.

We have a long ways to go. We are in a vicious cycle: Price decline –> Foreclosures –> Price Decline –>

Jas

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 07:19:01

Jas —

I guess you are not a true believer in Congressional foreclosure rescue plans?

Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 07:39:12


I am a skeptic, in general! Our Congress and the Fed have the ability or make things worse and make tough times last longer.

Jas

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Comment by nhz
2008-05-27 08:07:43

in Netherlands we need 75-80% price decline to get back to the prices of 15 years ago (adjusted for inflation) so even longer to go. And in Europe the housing correction has not really started yet, some minor trouble in Ireland, UK and Spain but in most countries prices are still rising. When the air comes out of the much bigger EU housing bubble, I guess the US is in for some additional pain …

Comment by Manny
2008-05-27 10:19:04

So you’re saying in 15 years there should be no real appreciation at all? That’s a little extreme don’t you think?

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Comment by nhz
2008-05-27 13:07:48

just look at this chart of inflation-adjusted prices and judge for yourself what is likely to happen:

http://www.nrc.nl/achtergrond/article816285.ece

If you check individual (repeat) sales prices for homes on the Herengracht, most of them are 10-15x higher now than around 1990. But the average price in the chart has increased just 2.5-3 times over the same time frame. The difference is caused by statistical flaws like splitting up big homes into cheaper apartments, because homes sold to companies instead of private persons are no longer counted (for tax reasons likely to happen when prices get far above 1M euro), etc. So even this chart is severely underestimating how bad the situation is.

 
Comment by nhz
2008-05-27 13:18:44

if the chart I referred to in my not-yet-showing reply shows up at a later time, please note that it is an inflation-corrected chart and NOT a chart with nominal prices. The chart suggests lower and upper limits for real (inflation adjusted) prices; being at a 300-year high the next move seems obvious. It does not say anything about nominal prices, those are mostly determined by the central banks inflationary policy.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
Comment by cactus
2008-05-27 12:22:06

from the article

The proposed actions are contrary to free market orthodoxy and raise familiar concerns about moral hazard and rewarding greed. There seems to be no choice. There will be a high price to be paid but that will come later. As Charles Kindleberger noted in his history of financial crisis: “today wins over tomorrow”.

what high price to be paid later is he talking about ?

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-27 06:40:25

Traffic yesterday afternoon was quite light, not just relative to a typical weekday commute, but due to a typical Memorial Day. A coworker commuting back home into Orange County noted the same thing. Areas that normally would have been backup up on a Memorial Day afternoon were moving along at the speed limit. Also, the camp ground off the 5 freeway just north of Oceanside was much less crowded (RV’s, etc.) than than a typical Memorial Day. He also noted that one of the condos in his complex now has a “Foreclosure Tour” sign in one of the windows.

Comment by LA Friends In Deed
2008-05-27 06:47:26

The Los Angeles Times had a sticker for “Home Foreclosure Auction” on Sunday and Monday.

Comment by makeschips
2008-05-27 10:36:12

Sunday LA Times Hot Property column:

“A Beverly Hills house that actress Sharon Stone bought for just under $11 million in April 2006 and then promptly relisted at $12.5 million — to no takers — is now back on the market at $10 million.”

“Stone never moved in, and the 1991 gated estate, with seven bedrooms and eight bathrooms, was completely refurbished in 2004. The actress lives in another mansion not far from this one. So why’d she buy this house? Impulse, pure and simple, said the listing agent back in 2006.”

http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/hotprop/la-re-hotprop25-2008may25,0,7160891.story?page=2

Another sign that finally the bubble is bursting even in ‘invincible’ SoCal addresses.

 
 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2008-05-27 07:10:11

Drove to Monterey/Carmel, CA yesterday expecting lots of traffic and crowds. Traffic was very light and the restaurants were dead at peak time. The employees and locals seemed at a bit less snobby than usual.

 
 
Comment by neuromance
2008-05-27 06:43:50

New NAR advertising angle: Foreign buyers are flocking to the US. The following two talking points I’ve heard repeated multiple times on the local news radio station:

1) “Foreign buyers also seem more optimistic about the long-term health of the U.S. market”

2) “”They view this as the bargain of a lifetime and are terribly excited about it.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121185666503721933.html?mod=residential_real_estate

Does this mean that NAR is calling another bottom?

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 07:13:55

I meet an awful lot of foreigners visiting our country these days, and not one of them has mentioned any desire to buy homes here…

Real Estate investment all over the world is very much like a skunk reduced to roadkill, with it’s final act leaving a sweet and then sour smell, that screams stay away.

Comment by plastic fantastic
2008-05-27 08:14:34

Was talking to some Brits last week in the course of my job, and asked some open-ended questions about their RE market. Consensus seemed to be that 1) England is different, 2) problems are nothing like in America, 3) any problems that exist are due to fallout from American ’subprime’ problem impacting British financials. Very smug, overall. I did comment.

Comment by sf jack
2008-05-27 10:01:33

This can be re-written from my experience here in the Alt-A Bay:

Was talking to some realtors (or friends or even strangers) in the last week in the course of my job, and asked some open-ended questions about the RE market. Consensus seemed to be that 1) SF City (or Peninsula or Marin or Berkeley) is different, 2) problems are nothing like in the rest of America, 3) any problems that exist are due to fallout from the rest of America’s ’subprime’ problem impacting financials, and our tech sector/local economy is so strong that a recession will have little impacit. Very smug, overall. I almost never comment because the Kool-Aid is served so strong.

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Comment by nhz
2008-05-27 10:02:01

you will see the same denial almost anywhere in Europe. Authorities tell us time and time again that the housing downturn is just a US problem (and strictly related to subprime). Most of the sheeple believe this, so they are convinced that homeprices will never go down in Europe. And that idea is backed by 10-25 years of experience with steadily rising prices..

I don’t know about foreigners buying in the US, but foreign housing speculation is still in full force in most of Europe. Stories about getting rich with real estate speculation (second homes etc.) are still everywhere, both in newspapers/magazines and on television. Only the locations have shifted a bit lately, e.g. Spain seems to be out of favor for the moment, but people are still buying in droves in Eastern Europe, the Balkan area, Turkey, Dubai etc.

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Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-27 10:49:42

Well, it is getting onto those House flipping shows in the UK. Last week, they did mention a few times,
“with the economy change, what will you do with property bought at auction?” Or, “will rents cover till market improves” etc. So, although the MSM in the UK is still delusional, the Fix It shows are acknowledging that market is changing.

 
 
Comment by speedingpullet
2008-05-27 13:55:52

LOL plastic fantastic- I’ve been having the same argument with friends back in London for months now.
Apparently its all America’s fault, oh yes.
No speculation at all on their part, so it must be someone else’s fault.

Though, word to the wise - please don’t call people from the UK ‘Brits’ ;-)

If they’re from England, then they’re English….

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Comment by tresho
2008-05-27 14:36:57

If they’re from England, then they’re English…. In parts of Ohio, “English” refers to anyone who isn’t Amish.

 
 
 
 
Comment by neuromance
2008-05-27 11:06:38

It occurs to me that if the real estate market returns to tracking inflation after years of slight but steady depreciation, it hardly can be classified as a high-yielding investment.

 
Comment by sartre
2008-05-27 11:47:29

Its true! You see Europeans are complete morons. They don’t have newspapers etc. out there so they don’t know whats happening in US (and their own) markets. Plus they love to invest in depreciating real estate bought in a depreciating currency so they can double down on their losses. They should start direct flights to detroit, gary, joliet and every other armpit of america for hordes of these buyers.

Comment by nhz
2008-05-27 13:12:51

Some Europeans that I know think it is clever to invest in a significantly corrected market that is priced in a strongly depreciated currency, so they can play the bounce. At least they have a better chance for a bounce than in native Europe.

If that is a wise investment strategy is another question, that depends on how much further you think the correction in the US housing market will go (also compared to EU housing market, which is the alternative asset allocation place for these people - investing in RE is all they know).

Comment by sartre
2008-05-27 14:43:39

IMHO, given EU’s tighter monetary policy and inflation focus, dollar has a lot more room to fall relative to euro.

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Comment by cactus
2008-05-27 06:51:44

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080527/home_prices.html

Biggest home price drop in 20 years

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 07:06:43

Actually could potentially be the biggest home price drop ever at this point. As the data only go back 20 years, they say nothing about what occurred previously.

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-05-27 07:19:56

Maybe they could just say “Biggest Home Price Drop in Recorded History”. How’s that for a headline?

Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 10:06:42

Compared, to say, Pompeii?

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Comment by packman
2008-05-27 11:05:10

Yeah - in Pompeii they really did make more land.

…of course - it was 20 feet on top of the old land, but still…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-05-27 07:01:09

Some week end observations from the Norther woods of Wisconsin/UP

Rode 350mi from the Iron mountain/Marinette circle - the kids did about 500mi. Gas when I filled up the spare tank (50gals) was $4.24, Monday same station $3.94. Tried to put it on a credit card, the pump shuts off at $100 wtf? needed to use three cards for a lousy fill up. useless keeping credit cards if the gas shuts off at $100.

The trails were devoid of many tourists, this is not good for the local economy. The $50 more to drive from Chicago is by itself not a killer, but the everyday use of gas has not left any moneys in potential visitors pockets.

It seemed that every other cabin was for sale. Prices were down about 40% from peek pricing (around Mar 2005). Lots of land for sale. Most of the cabins were FSBO. I did not talk to realtors. A decent cabin on 1/2 ac was around 15K, (outhouse, potable water) . A new well in most these areas costs upwards of 6K. So getting a cabin with well is pretty inexpensive.

Comment by tresho
2008-05-27 07:37:29

needed to use three cards for a lousy fill up. useless keeping credit cards if the gas shuts off at $100. In the past whenever a gas pump shut off due to a maximum charge being exceeded, I would just reactivate the pump with the same credit card I had already been using, never have had a problem making multiple charges on the same card. Has the situation changed? Will you be driving longer distances with a pocketful of Benjamins in the future?

Comment by hoz
2008-05-27 11:19:11

lol, the gas was for the quads. At $4.24/gal inexpensive entertainment, $25/12 hrs of riding. Plus all the scrapes, bruises beers and brats thrown in. And the pleasure of waking in the morning to muscle sores in places I hadn’t seen in years. I just keep track of expenses. Easier on a credit card.

 
 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-05-27 09:06:45

The trails were devoid of many tourists, this is not good for the local economy. The $50 more to drive from Chicago is by itself not a killer, but the everyday use of gas has not left any moneys in potential visitors pockets.

My girlfriend and I spent the weekend driving around southern Wisconsin — Mazomanie, Spring Green, Taliesin, Mineral Point, back through Madison. Hotels and B&Bs seemed fairly booked, but many had openings (we were winging it after Friday night, so we checked a few). Did some hiking, some walking around towns. Saw a fair number of tourists, but didn’t encounter any mob scenes. Business at the flea markets was slow.

Looked like there was a ton of traffic going to the Dells, but it was pretty light in our travels south and west of Madison.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 07:11:49

At least the stock market is doing well this morning — maybe even “better than expected”?

May 27, 2008 10:05 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
U.S. CONSUMER-CONFIDENCE GAUGE REGISTERS 16-YEAR LOW
Housing depreciation
Prices off 14% in past year
Case-Shiller 20-city index, released by S&P, shows a 14.4% retreat in housing prices over past year. Report is only as weak as forecast.

 
Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 07:12:28

Foreclosures in Military Towns Surge at 4 Times US Rate….

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awj2TMDLnwsU&refer=home

Comment by Va Beyatch from Virginia Beach
2008-05-27 14:30:07

Wow! Norfolk, VA is in that article. There has been nothing about it in the local press.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2008-05-27 07:19:15

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080527/home_sales.html

home sales increase in April. things that make you go hmmm.

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 09:00:11

As mentioned previously, maybe from the banks buying back their own foreclosed properties.

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-05-27 07:19:58

A nice refutation of speculators causing commodity increases by John Mauldin:

Non exchange traded commodities vs exchange traded commodities.

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo052308

I have some non exchange traded commodities and they are up 400% in the last 2 years. In fact it appears that exchange traded commodities are not up as much as non exchange traded commodities.

Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 07:38:37

There is no futures market in coal, steel, etc. but prices are through the roof. It’s the USD, not the speculator.

Comment by Blue Skye
2008-05-27 10:03:15

Tangible investments can be as speculative as intangible ones. Hoz’ rare earths, my gold coins, the “build it and they will come” shopping center, houses to flip, fields of corn, etc., all speculative with or without a future’s market.

Comment by watcher
2008-05-27 10:47:42

You can’t resell a trainload of coal or pig iron. If you buy it, you own it and you will receive delivery.

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Comment by hoz
2008-05-27 11:08:22

And when you wish to sell, post it on BHP and wait or try to sell to a hedge fund. lol

I think the dollar has somewhat to do with the demand, I also believe it is scarcity of raw materials (easily accessible).

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 07:26:20


New Home Sales Report for April 2008

Months of Supply has fallen from 11.1 to 10.6. However, for Completed Homes, the median months to sell, after completion, has increased from 7.5 to 8 months. So. We are pretty close to the worst demand situation for New Homes relative to the supply even after the supply having been cut more than 50%.

Sales are down 42%, YoY, while inventory is down only 16.9%.

Jas

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 07:26:53

Housing skid leads to exodus of builders
Analysts: Many won’t return when it’s over
By Emmet Pierce
STAFF WRITER

May 27, 2008

The housing slump is downsizing San Diego County’s home-building industry, as many of the large firms that helped create suburban communities scale back or close local operations.

Companies that sold tens of thousands of homes during the recent housing boom are struggling to stay afloat until the downturn ends. Some of those that leave probably won’t return.

“Centex, KB Home, K. Hovnanian, William Lyon, Richmond American, Pulte – all have closed local offices, and pretty much every other builder has reduced staff,” said real estate analyst Peter Dennehy. “They don’t need the same number of staff as when the market was rockin’ and rollin.’ ”

 
Comment by Bad Chile
2008-05-27 07:31:42

Latest Case-Shiller Index Numbers

LOCATION MARCH, 2008 LOWEST SINCE
Phoenix - AZ 166.97 March 2005
Los Angeles 207.11 June 2004
San Diego 185.44 January 2004
San Francisco 168.38 May 2004
Denver 127.43 February 2004
Washington 202.34 October 2004
Miami 208.88 January 2005
Tampa - FL 182.26 February 2005
Atlanta - GA 124.61 February 2005
Chicago 150.35 January 2005
Boston 158.54 January 2004
Detroit - MI 95.57 June 1999
Minneapolis - MN 142.24 May 2003
Charlotte - NC 131.52 February 2008
Las Vegas 169.31 April 2004
New York 196.58 May 2005
Cleveland - OH 106.42 January 2002
Portland - OR 174.39 April 2006
Dallas - TX 119.08 February 2008
Seattle - WA 178.29 June 2006
Composite 186.06 August 2004
Composite-20 172.16 September 2004

Comment by sf jack
2008-05-27 10:06:55

“San Francisco 168.38 May 2004″

May 2004 is when the “Buy Now Or Be Priced Out Forever” realtor/lender crowd reached a fever pitch locally.

Doing so because the FOMC was going to raise rates the next month for the first time in years (and note this was only a few months after Greenspan said “go ahead, use those variable interest rate products…”).

A four year round trip in prices.

I thought it would have taken longer.

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 07:56:19


Latest Radar Logic Data: Areas With the Worst Current Price Trends

With prices (PPSF) making new lows almost on a daily basis (covers 28 prior days of transactions) and declining at 2-5% a month rate, in order.

Phoenix, AZ
Miami, FL
Detroit, MI
New York, NY
Sacramento, CA
San Jose, CA
Charlotte, NC
Los Angeles, CA
San Fran, CA
Tampa, FL
Washington, DC

Jas

 
Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 07:57:24

Ben, I was at Central Market last night. They have a huge selection of UK/Irish, etc. beers and ales. I found the manager and challenged him to get me some Firkin. If it happens, I will let you know. You may want to fly to Dallas and load up.

Comment by salinasron
2008-05-27 11:27:37

txchick57, try out some of these beers from a local CA brewery.

(www.mojave-red.com/)

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 08:24:31


Areas With POSITIVE Price Trends During 2008Q1

As per Radar Logic PPSF series, in order:

St. Louis, MO
Cleveland, OH
Chicago, IL
Atlanta, GA
Milwaukee, WI
Denver, CO
Philadelphia, PA

Pretty much all are non-bubble areas except for Chicago that had a bounce off a huge decline during 2007Q3-Q4.

Jas

Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-05-27 09:24:01

Atlanta is a non-bubble zone? No bubbles in Denver and Philly?

That seems contrary to a lot of the evidence we’ve seen here …

Comment by atlanta_renter
2008-05-27 16:21:53

As someone who lives in Atlanta, it IS a bubble zone. I’m waiting and watching “asking” prices decline.

 
 
Comment by Sekar
2008-05-27 13:06:17

The rising tide took up all areas and the falling tide will take them down. Remember what happen during the internet bubble ? The coasts popped first and then the rest of the country followed. There is always a 1-2 quarter delay in what happens in flyover country because capital flows from the coasts inward and not the other way around.

 
 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 08:33:13

Morning all. Squatters update and question:

All’s quiet here, but I’ve finally been able to find out who the lender who owns the house is. Utah is a non-disclosure state, but the wonderful gal at the county recorder’s office gave me the info. She’s a gem.

It’s Home 123 in Irvine, CA. Checking them out on the web, I see they’re backed by HUD. I know that means that HUD will guarantee the loan, but how long will it take for the bank to transfer owenership to HUD, etc. etc. It would be nice to know the time frame for transfer so I know who to deal with…

Any comments welcome…

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 08:36:57

Info on HUD:

“If foreclosures are not sold within six months, HUD will sell them for $1 each to approved nonprofit organizations and government agencies. Homes must then be used create housing for families in need or to benefit neighborhoods.

HUD offers special home purchase programs for teachers and full time law enforcement officers.”

So…how long does it take to set up a 501(c)3??? :)

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 08:55:44

Hey, any teachers, deputies, or EMTs out there? HUD will sell you a house in your district for 50% off their asking. http://www.hud dot com

Comment by CorpsmanUSN
2008-05-27 10:36:59

Does it have to be in the same city you are a Police in???

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Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 12:18:59

I dunno, but it sounds like it - it gives the rules on the webpage.

 
 
 
Comment by polly
2008-05-27 10:38:38

First you have to set up whatever passes for a non-profit in Utah. Try here:

http://corporations.utah.gov/business/dnp.html

The you get the federal nonprofit status. Start here:

http://www.irs.gov/charities/article/0,,id=96109,00.html

And make sure the HUD rules don’t require it to go to a non-profit housing assistance group or something else you don’t feel like doing. A lawyer can help make sure the application goes smoothly, but education groups are pretty straight forward to get approval for and the forms attempt to make it easy enough to do without a lawyer.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 08:41:46

a long time. you’re in luck

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 08:50:27

:) :) :)

Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-05-27 11:12:39

I love this storyline. Even better that you’re a long time hbber.

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Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 11:50:23

Thanks, I think it might just get even better!

 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 12:42:59

Just talked to a RE person, he says I prob. have 6 months before it transfers to HUD. And he says at that point, I could buy it really cheap (not sure I want it).

When I started reading this blog over a year ago, I had no idea I would become a squatter…

 
Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 14:18:11

“When I started reading this blog over a year ago, I had no idea I would become a squatter…”

Yeah, we all knew you when you were still a respectable renter. And now look at you. Squatting, setting up generators, paying the utilities directly, exploring non-profit status, and having a grand old time. Somewhere out there in the wild west, Butch and Sundance are smiling at you.

 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 15:30:00

Hey, and you know, Spike, this is actually kind of fun! I was getting a little stressed, but an old Ute Indian came by and we smoked some sagebrush and I realized I’m OK, have the horse tied up out front all saddled up and ready to go (my camper) and some gold in my saddlebags…

WAHOOO!

(If not, hope I can access HBB from prison…) :)

 
Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 21:05:11

Hey Lost,
somebody had to turn squatter to give this blog the full meltdown experience, and we all took a secret vote and elected you to win.
If non-profits in Utah include opening a rescue mission for geriatric pets, please let me know. I could do that.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 08:46:06

We Californians HELOC’d @ nearly 3x the rate of the rest of the country, to buy new cars in 2007…

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/business/27auto.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

So would it be safe to assume we went to the ATM piggy bank just as often, to buy other junk?

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 08:57:05

Cally’s always ahead of the rest of the country, the trend setters, so I would think that assumption would be safe. LOL

 
 
Comment by CrackerJim
2008-05-27 08:54:12

test

 
Comment by zeropointzero
2008-05-27 09:08:26

The Washington Post is in some kind of timewarp - last week it was the surprising story a couple who couldn’t sell their overpriced Prince William County home even though they were throwing in an eight-year-old Mustang convertible !

This week, they tell us the shocking news that empty houses are neighborhood eyesores and magnets for pests - complete with the traditional photo of the fetid pool that has turned into a mosquito farm.

I’ve read so many of these stories elsewhere in 2006 and 2007 that this just feels like old news. But, maybe it’s just that this is hitting here a little later.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/26/AR2008052602036.html?hpid=artslot

In neighborhoods across the region, a potent recipe is brewing on the front lawns and in the back yards of thousands of homes emptied by foreclosures. The combination of a rainy spring and a flood of the unkempt houses has local governments increasingly concerned about public health and struggling to keep nature at bay. As more people move out, the grass grows taller, the water puddles up and the wild things move in.

Mosquitoes thrive in the empty swimming pools and junk piles that have been filled and refilled by the recent rains. Ticks flourish in the tall grass. So do rodents, which also like the shelter of dry, empty houses and whatever garbage they might contain. Then come the snakes, with the rest of the animal kingdom not far behind.

No county in the region has been hit harder by the foreclosure wave than Prince William, where there are nearly 7,000 empty houses, said neighborhood services coordinator Michelle Casciato. Given recent census estimates, that means about one in 20 houses in the county are unoccupied.

Comment by hd74man
2008-05-27 18:18:01

RE: the wild things move in.

Guess the Burmese Pythons are raising havoc with indigenous species in FL.

If I ever saw one of those 15ft. monsters lurking in an ex-neighbor’s overgrown grass-I’d lose it!

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-05-27 09:34:42

American Innovation! Finally something hopeful…about tomorrow!

Now if they can develop a repellent for: “Buy Now..or be priced out FOREVER! ” :-)

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/05/27/bug_repellant_lasted_73_days_in_fla_study/

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-27 09:38:43

Cleaning up old boxes, found a CD passbook.

Don’t know if the bank exists, phone # doesn’t work.

How to find it this money still exists? It was an IRA.
Or how to find out from the state?

Just a moment of History, the Acct paid 10.50% in 1986.

Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-05-27 10:04:41

I’m going dumpster diving to find my old passbooks.
Actually I think my broker had me in covered lincoln savings bonds. I lucked out when they came due.

 
Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 10:11:25

If you want to raise your blood pressure, read about how the grasping states (notable example: CA) treat this lost money. Drilling peoples safe deposit boxes and selling the contents at pennies on the dollar to support the general fund.

Even the officials charged with doing this stuff are gagging on it.

Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-27 11:06:36

So, you are telling me the money is lost.. I was going to buy first round in SAN when Ben and other Hbbers convene.

Okay, now everyone is going to help? lol.

But seriously, the money is Lost?

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-27 11:36:39

desertdweller,

If your in California, here’s a couple of links. Hope this helps:

This is a pdf (3 pages): http://www.sco.ca.gov/eo/pressbox/inthenews/2007/contracostatimes10282007.pdf

This link takes you directly to the CA Controller web page:

http://www.sco.ca.gov/

This page has links to unclaimed property (money also).

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Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-27 14:54:23

Thanks Great links,SFbaygal..
I just spent time at the comptroller site.
Sent a nice email. Hope to find out
if the bank exists or not, but where they
buried my loot.
If I get it, I will buy you a bev also!

 
 
 
 
Comment by tuxedo_junction
2008-05-27 14:44:00

If the account is that old then the money was probably handed over to the state. If not claimed in a certain number of years the state gets to keep it (escheat) though there might be different rules for IRAs.

Try the FDIC/FFIEC websites to track the history of the bank (assuming it was a bank and not an S&L). You should be able to locate the current IRA custodian. If they have no record of the account then contact the state office that handles unclaimed property. Most states have unclaimed property websites that are searchabel by the account owner’s name.

Comment by desertdweller
2008-05-27 14:57:21

Tux, it was a Savings/Loan place, Hancock.

it that good? lol.
Was in married name, not found anywhere, but my maiden name is all over the place.????

 
 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 09:46:53


No rumor is true until it is officially denied. — Bismarck.

SF Fed President Yellen denies that there is any Commodities Bubble. Didn’t the Fed officials deny the tech bubble and the Housing Bubble?

Jas

Comment by sf jack
2008-05-27 10:13:11

What Janet Yellen is trying to say is that she doesn’t see any need to raise interest rates because she still wants to bail out the housing market.

She’s just parroting a very entrenched local Alt-A Bay Area philosophy.

“Everyone” feels this way around here. Gas prices? Food? What - who cares?

There’s apparently more concern for keeping the REIC around and their game in business.

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-05-27 09:55:36


Housing Discussion on Faux Busybodies News

Women are better investors because they like to buy homes… More women were buying homes… The guys say let’s wait, let’s wait, but women would say le us buy the home or beach condo and enjoy… Guys like to hit the bottom but women would say don’t worry about hitting the bottom…

Jas

Comment by Leighsong
2008-05-27 12:17:37

Not this woman! I’ll lock him in the closet in a New York minute!

Leigh ;)

 
Comment by cactus
2008-05-27 12:24:15

don’t worry Suzane reseached this

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-05-27 12:50:11

Your damn right Suzanne researched this. I researched this and knew prices were out of this world. I can wait to hit bottom as well as other members of the X genes. ;)

Comment by atlanta_renter
2008-05-27 16:27:54

Ditto!

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Comment by atlanta_renter
2008-05-27 16:29:22

BTW - my “husband’ was ready to buy the house while I suspected fraud.

 
 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-05-27 12:55:15

I worry about people hitting my bottom ;)

what a load of bs

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2008-05-27 09:58:17

Well after spending a week in Tahoe and the last two weekends in Bakersfield it’s nice to be back in Salinas. Damn, what’s up with the weather? A week ago in Bakersfield it was 100 degrees and last weekend I nearly froze to death. Yesterday went for a walk along the ocean in Pacific Grove in shirt sleeves and sunshine.

When in Bakersfield the topic of discussion between relatives was when are Crisp and Cole headed for jail. People want to see them in the courtroom getting their comeuppance.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 10:26:55

We did a little backpack in the Sierra Nevada and got rained on…

Stayed dry and kept the campfire lit, the only warmth of the weekend~

Comment by Anthony
2008-05-27 11:21:10

What about global warming?

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 11:31:56

Each piece of wood we burned had between 10 and 50 years of stored energy, and took 10 to 50 minutes for us to consume.

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Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 10:08:17

Well… Gold is up another negative $18. Gold always goes up! It’s the bestest infestment evar!!!

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-05-27 10:24:32

That number “Trillion” is becoming rather common in the language of Americans these days.

“Total VMT in the United States for 2006, the most recent year for which such data are available, topped 3 trillion miles”

http://www.dot.gov/affairs/fhwa1108.htm

Typical Gov’t reporting…completely disregards the “relationship” between the American automobile & sexual education. :-)

 
Comment by Denverdude
2008-05-27 10:29:23

Anyone have where I can find info on beach houing price declines? i am tring to show a co-workers that beach area can loose value. I am not having too much luck google searching for it. Thanks

Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-05-27 11:18:53

Denver dude.
The lady who bought our beach shack sold our house for 1 million more than she paid in 10/05. But now zillow shows it down 2 million from what we recieved.

Cap Gains Suck.

Her first night in our old home was invaded by big black rats,
she was horrified. Our broker certainly earned his comission.

 
Comment by bkiddo
2008-05-27 11:31:36

Here you go- from OahuRE site’s upside down section. This is just one beach of many, today’s listings:
Region Neighborhood Address Building MLS# List Price MLS# Sales Date
Sales Price
Difference Percentage
DIAMONDHD DIAMOND HEAD 2987 Kalakaua Ave 2987 Kalakaua 2808013 $497,000 2504090 05-11-2005
$555,000 $-58,000 -10.45%
DIAMONDHD DIAMOND HEAD 2947 Kalakaua Ave Diamond Head Bch Hotel 2808771 $260,000 2519993 06-19-2006
$270,000 $-10,000 -3.70%
DIAMONDHD DIAMOND HEAD 2947 Kalakaua Ave Diamond Head Bch Hotel 2801874 $299,000 2518286 03-06-2006
$300,000 $-1,000 -0.33%
DIAMONDHD KAIMUKI 1023 Kapahulu Ave Kuhale Kapahulu 2802482 $349,900 2519353 12-22-2005
$365,000 $-15,100 -4.14%
DIAMONDHD WAIALAE G/C 4999 Kahala Ave Kahala Beach 2802583 $200,000 2608762 09-05-2006
$300,000 $-100,000 -33.33%
DIAMONDHD WAIALAE G/C 4999 Kahala Ave Kahala Beach 2808124 $299,000 2609122 11-03-2006
$340,000 $-41,000 -12.06%
DIAMONDHD WAIALAE G/C 4999 Kahala Ave Kahala Beach 2807974 $189,000 2622076 02-27-2007
$260,000 $-71,000 -27.31%
DIAMONDHD WAIALAE G/C 4999 Kahala Ave Kahala Beach 2717146 $395,000 2315693 03-19-2004
$488,000 $-93,000 -19.06%
DIAMONDHD WAIALAE G/C 4999 Kahala Ave Kahala Beach 2714324 $380,000 2413523 10-21-2004
$525,000 $-145,000 -27.62%
Region Neighborhood Address Building

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 11:53:20

Wow - isn’t Diamond Head a pretty ritzy area? How’s Waimea doing?

 
 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-05-27 11:25:27

A most excellent interview:

Fed Risk: Interview with Richard Alford
May 27, 2008

“…
The IRA: So it was Fed monetary policy that has in fact created a safety and soundness problem in the US?

Alford: Yes. The policy stance was sufficient to generate asset bubbles and misallocations of resources. The regulatory system helped shape the crisis, but isn’t a sufficient explanation for the crisis arising. That is a far easier explanation than to say that the regulatory system somehow simultaneously failed in the mortgage industry, the banking industry, municipal finance, etc and that we now require new layers of regulation in every corner of the financial system to correct the imbalances in the system. The Fed’s monetary policy, in fact, was a necessary component of the systemic instability. No amount of regulation could prevent market participants from taking advantage of the incentives created by the Fed from 2001 through 2005 via extreme easy money policy. The incentive to run maturity mismatches would still be there and people would find a way to take advantage of it. This is not say that all regulation is futile, but rather that incentives are also important. …”
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=283
Institutional Risk Analytics

Comment by vozworth
2008-05-27 14:18:27

Welcome back Hozzie.

3 Q’s Monty: on yield curve hieroglyphics.

Why is the Australiain yield curve fully inverted, why does the UK appear as though its about to fully invert, and why is the long end of the Brazilian yield curve inverting…

Comment by hoz
2008-05-27 15:22:08

“The future changes as we stand here, else we are the game pieces of the gods, not their heirs, as we have been promised.”
Raistlin Majere

A person is smart, people are stupid. It does not mean that the prices cannot get skewed further.

Comment by vozworth
2008-05-27 15:28:44

I just wanted a primer on asking you what you thought of:

BWX

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Comment by vozworth
2008-05-27 18:09:08

What dangerous problems are “Sovereign Nations” trying to solve with extra-ordinarily high short term rates? Yet they purchase short term US treasuries forcing rates too low, excacerbating inflationary presure on the real economy.

defend the currency, defend the economy…de-fence aint just what HBB’s are sittin on.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 11:58:54

Be Quiet and Let Me Make Money
May 27, 2008; Page A20

Regarding Holman Jenkins’s “Why a Housing Bailout Won’t Help” (Business World, May 21): Please be quiet and stop telling the truth.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 12:01:43

Housing Fight on Senate Floor in Early June
By Dick Armey, 5/26/2008 3:32:11 PM

Comment by Sekar
2008-05-27 13:21:32

“Congress needs to pay attend to the broader moral message a housing bailout will send”
-
Why ? The Fed paid no attention to the broader moral message of a bailout of Bear Stearns. I say lets have bailouts for everyone and lets also let everyone who doesn’t have home have one. Living under a central bank gives us the ability to do this.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2008-05-27 14:07:23

It wasn’t a bail out of Bear. It was a bailout of everyone Bear owed money too. It was a desperate measure needed to prevent a cascade of defaults.

 
 
 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-05-27 13:02:45

Driving past the budget gas station in o’side showed me the nightmare price of 429.00 a gallon for regular unleaded.
I am going to practice levitation techniques this week.

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 13:35:13

429.00??? Holy Macaroni!!

Maybe you mean 4.29??

Hows about perfecting that teleporter the guy in “The Fly” was working on???

Comment by speedingpullet
2008-05-27 14:01:59

I like the photo they had on CNN over the weekend.

One place’s Super Gas price was ‘LOL 9/10″

 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-05-27 14:02:58

4.29.00. But it feels like it’s 130.00 a barrel.

 
 
 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 13:32:25

OK, I thought my squatting case might get more interesting (posted above)…just read this on the net about the company who has the mortgage on the house I’m in - have tried calling various numbers and they’re all disconnected (Home 123) - this is from an appraiser’s website (sorry, I lost the link, so don’t know how long ago this was posted):

“Home123/New Century is basically bankrupt and has ceased all lending operations. They are not taking any new loans, sent other loans back to brokers, stopped funding loans 3 weeks ago.

Their stock was at $33.00 in October, it was de-listed last Monday and is trading somewhere around $.81 right now.

They have been served subpoenaes from the Feds for accounting irregularities and possible illegal stock trades by the owners/officers.

I don’t think turning them into the banking commission is even going to show up on their radar screen.

New Century is kaput.”

Other searches have brought up judgements and defaults against them, I know this company has been discussed here under New Century, anyone know more?

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 13:40:56

Oh Jeez, now I remember who these guys are, they declared bankruptcy a year ago. Remember the baseball bat story - the mort. brokers who were intimidated? One of many stories Ben posted here.

This just gets better and better. :)

 
 
Comment by Former FB
2008-05-27 14:32:59

So I get an email from TheStreet.com with their latest headlines, which includes this:

“Jim Cramer expects housing to turn a corner and says oil’s surge won’t damage the economy too badly as long as people don’t lose their homes.”

Huh? How can he say that with a straight face now that the MSM publishes “people are losing their homes” stories every day?

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 14:37:55

Is this the dude that encouraged knifecatchers to keep buying stocks right through the tech stock bust?

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-05-27 14:41:49

“…Jewelry Television has announced the elimination of 215 jobs. The Knoxville News Sentinel reports that the home-shopping network reduced its work force at its Knoxville headquarters by 150 and eliminated 65 positions in Nashville two weeks ago….”
Associated Press May 16

It seems Home shopping isn’t happening.

Comment by vozworth
2008-05-27 15:50:48

fixed incomes are getting the big squeeze from cooling bills to insurance premiums.

 
 
Comment by bizarroworld
2008-05-27 15:48:17

Justice Department forces Realtors group to stop blocking online access of home listings
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080527/realtors_settlement.html

“It really does free brokers generally to engage in whatever they feel is the most efficient and effective way to compete,” Deputy Assistant Attorney General Deborah A. Garza of the Justice Department’s antitrust division told reporters.

Yun must be working up his next positive spin for this tale. This can save people substantial money and many of Yuns huns won’t be happy.

 
Comment by vozworth
2008-05-27 18:00:21

How can higher rates solve problems?
1. the dollar, higher
2. puts a floor under housing by getting “real” buyers off the fence.
3. lowers commodity prices.
4. increased profit margins for pricing power producers.
5. reward savers.

How do lower rates solve problems:
1. they dont solve problems, they create them with the euphoria of “THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT”

Comment by vozworth
2008-05-27 18:33:45

China rebukes west’s lack of regulation

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Tuesday May 27 2008 17:40
Western governments must strengthen their oversight of financial markets and improve cross-border regulatory co-operation if they are to avoid future global financial crises, a senior Chinese banking regulator told the Financial Times.

—-

This is a Communist Sovereign nation lecturing the United States about regulation..

China….lecturing….about regulatory environment…they cap prices, the control information, they jail dissenters…..you cant read this blog in China.

Comment by vozworth
2008-05-27 18:44:45

anybody want to talk about the kingdoms lecturing, or just the cowtowing…

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 19:10:52

OMG — this story is way too out there to make it up…

BUSINESS
Mortgages and Madness

Questionable lending practices turned a peaceful Cleveland neighborhood into a blighted slum.
Tim Harrison
Not Just Dogs: Kellogg was the broker of record for 71 houses in Slavic Village from 2004 to 2006
By Michael Hirsh | NEWSWEEK
Jun 2, 2008 Issue

Mark Kellogg’s hot-dog stand sits at Broadway and Fleet Avenue, the main intersection of Slavic Village, a traditional working-class neighborhood in Cleveland. It’s midday on a Wednesday, and the place is deserted except for a new metallic-blue VW convertible in the lot, blaring rap music. A towering sign advertises DRIVE THRU SERVICE and hot dogs WITH ALL THE TRIMMINGS. The kitchen door is open, and a well-groomed young man wearing an apron, a baseball cap and a Bluetooth in his ear emerges. When a reporter asks if the man knows Kellogg, he says, “That’s me.” But Kellogg quickly turns very unfriendly, especially for a restaurateur. “I want you off my premises,” he barks when he learns the purpose of the visit. “Do I have to call the police?

Kellogg’s surliness is no surprise. He knows we haven’t come to talk about hot dogs but about his other business, mortgages.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-05-27 23:28:46

I have to suppose that the economists quoted in this article are talking about nominal, not real price declines? Because what would stop real prices from correcting below their 2000 levels, given the glut of building in the $500,000+ price range?

Key S.D. home price indicator down record percent
By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
7:17 p.m. May 27, 2008

SAN DIEGO – A key home price indicator was down a record 14.1 percent in March compared with a year earlier in metro areas around the country and down 20.5 percent in San Diego, Standard & Poor’s reported Tuesday.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for San Diego has dropped 30 straight months on a month-by-month basis and 20 straight months year-over-year.

Set at 100 in January 2000, the San Diego index now stands at 185.44, down from the peak 250.34 in November 2005. That means that at the peak homes were worth 2.5 times their 2000 value, but have since fallen back 25.9 percent to today’s level.

San Diego’s index is nearly back to where it was in December 2003. The index for March declined 2.3 percent from February, compared with a drop of 3.6 percent from January to February.

DataQuick Information Systems, which uses a different methodology to track prices, has reported similar trends. The median price for all homes in January 2000 was $219,000; the peak was $517,500 in November 2005; and the April median was $400,000, 22.7 percent below the peak.

Case-Shiller’s numbers showed that Las Vegas had the biggest year-over-year decline of the 20 metro areas tracked, down 25.9 percent; followed by Miami, down 24.6 percent; Phoenix, down 23 percent; and Los Angeles, down 21.7 percent. San Diego ranked fifth. These areas fell the most largely because they rose the most in the early-2000s boom, Case-Shiller said.

James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California San Diego, called the Case-Shiller findings “pretty serious” but “not mysterious.”

“There is still a very big overhang of unsold homes on the market,” he said. “That’s going to bring the house price down.”

The San Diego Association of Realtors most recently said more than 18,300 homes were listed for sale earlier this month, an eight-month supply at current sales rates.

Hamilton said prices are likely to keep falling but probably will not fall back to their 2000 levels.

Click!

Marney Cox, an economist at the San Diego Association of Governments, predicted the Case-Shiller index for San Diego will drop about 25 points to around 160 before bottoming out – roughly a 35 percent drop from peak to trough.

“That’s not too bad,” he said, since prices would still be 60 percent higher than in 2000.

Click! Click, click!!

 
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