May 27, 2008

They Were Living In The Moment In Florida

The Bradenton Herald reports from Florida. “Christine Walker, some might say, should have known better. As a mortgage branch manager and then an account executive for wholesale mortgages for Bank of America, Walker had intimate knowledge of the mortgage process. But in 2005, when homes sales were so hot in Florida there were often bidding wars, Walker and her husband, John, thought they knew a good investment bet when they saw one.”

“When a friend backed out of a contract for a new four-bedroom, three-bath home to be built in Twin Rivers in Parrish, the Walkers decided to take it over. ‘It seemed like it was no risk at that time,’ she said. ‘I was trying to get ahead by putting my money in a sure thing.’”

“The Walkers, who had near perfect credit, even put 10 percent down on the $435,000 home. But they still ended up with a 8.45 percent subprime interest rate.”

“‘But I wasn’t worried because I knew we were going to turn around and sell it when it was finished,’ Walker said. They also owned their residence in Twin Rivers and another home out-of-state.”

“But when the home was finished in July 2006, the housing market had started to fall and home sales were stagnant. They put the home on the market and priced it in the low $500,000s, which was ‘on the low side in the neighborhood,’ she said.

“The couple still thought they had a chance to make some money on their investment. ‘It wasn’t so shockingly clear that it was going to be a total disaster,’ she said. ‘But then, every month things got worse and worse.’”

‘In November, they rented the home for $1,650, still leaving them to make up the difference in their $3,000-plus monthly mortgage payment. It was a rent-to-own situation, Walker said, but when the renter moved out in July 2007, the couple knew they were in a losing battle.”

“‘We looked at each other and said, ‘we can’t do this any more,’ she said. ‘We had spent every piece of money cash flow to not lose our credit.’”

“In October 2007, Walker lost her job when Bank of America did away with the commercial division she was working in. The couple lost all three houses through foreclosure and filed for bankruptcy. Today, they and their three children rent a house in their old neighborhood.”

“She gets tired of seeing everyone pointing the finger at the next guy and not taking responsibility for their actions ‘I take total responsibility for what happened,’ she said. ‘It was a risk. But I’ve moved on. It was much more stressful thinking about losing everything than accepting and moving on.’”

“And she won’t be buying real estate as an investment anytime soon. ‘Investing in real estate is for the rich,’ Walker said.”

“Real estate agent Joseph Kandel made lots of money buying and reselling residential properties in Southwest and Central Florida before and during the 2004-06 housing boom. During one 18-month period, he said, he made $440,000 flipping five properties.”

“He used those proceeds to qualify for subprime, adjustable-rate loans to buy more houses. Then the sizzling local housing market fizzled, much to his surprise. ‘I know nothing lasts forever, but I didn’t see it coming,’ he said. ‘All I knew was I was making cash and making it big.’”

“His income, which had been in six figures, dropped to $17,000 last year - far less than his mortgage payments, which totaled $19,600 a month.”

“He managed to sell one property in Orlando for more than what he owed, but lost a Sarasota condominium to foreclosure earlier this month. He’s facing the same prospect on three Manatee County properties he still owns - the house and a condominium in Lakewood Ranch, and a house in University Park.”

“Kandel’s now hoping to sell them through short sales. But none have sold so far, and Kandel blames lenders instead of himself.”

“‘They lost $12,500 because of their stupidity,’ Kandel said. ‘That’s the problem with lenders right now: They don’t have an exit strategy.’”

“Kandel expects to lose his remaining properties to foreclosure later this year but said he is losing little sleep over it. ‘Why? My credit’s shot already,’ he said.”

“Despite the damage, he still plans to get back into investing in real estate.”

“Subprime lenders targeted Manatee County blacks, Hispanics and minority neighborhoods during the housing boom. Mario Garcia, a Mexican national…was making $12.50 an hour at a Bradenton lumber company when he bought a Ruskin mobile home for $279,000 in 2005.”

“Washington Mutual’s subprime arm, Long Beach Mortgage, gave him two loans, one for 80 percent of the purchase price and the other for 20 percent. To qualify Garcia for the loans, the mortgage broker listed his annual income at $60,000.”

“Garcia said when he asked about the figures at closing, he was told not to worry. ‘I said, ‘I can’t read it,’ he said through an interpreter. ‘And they said everything was fine.’”

“It was a costly mistake. With the loans’ high interest rates - 10.269 and 11.538 percent, respectively - he would have paid more than $1 million through the 30-year life of the loans.”

“He lasted just five months. With his income nowhere near the $2,350 monthly mortgage, he exhausted his savings before moving out.”

“Mike Rahn, production manager with CNL Bank in Sarasota, blames Wall Street and the way rating agencies.”

“‘If Wall Street and the bond-rating companies had not rated this subprime paper as triple A-type bonds, no one would have bought it, so there would have never been a market for it,’ Rahn says. ‘I lay a lot of this blame at the foot of Standard & Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s. These ratings agencies should have never been allowed to rate this kind of paper. But again, they’re in bed with the investment banks.’”

“More than 4,000 foreclosure suits have been filed in Manatee County since January 2007, according to court records. That has left the county saddled with thousands of vacant homes - many neglected in the absence of their former owners.”

“Soaring foreclosures, coupled with the real estate downturn, means even ordinary homeowners trying to sell their properties are taking a hit.”

“‘Even though it’s not a foreclosure sale, it’s a distressed market,’ said said Bill Kersey, director of appraisal services for Manatee County. ‘If you want to sell it, you’re going to get a lot less for it than you did two years ago. And what this does is drive all the values in the neighborhood down. I have neighborhoods that are down as much as 30 percent, 32 percent.’”

“Gemma Henderson owns two homes in Covered Bridge Estates in Ellenton - one she lives in, the other she rents out. Her community ranks No. 4 in terms of foreclosure suits in Manatee County, with 31 actions filed during 2007. Nearly half of those - 13 homes - have already been foreclosed on.”

“Some investors looking to avoid foreclosure have turned to leasing their properties, and many of the same maintenance issues plague the rental homes. ‘People are desperate to have people come in and rent the houses they are trying to sell,’ Henderson said. ‘It’s put a big damper on where we are.’”

“‘Even the contractors have crashed so they can’t even finish what they started,’ Henderson said. ‘I think everybody is fighting to sell their home and it’s driving down everyone’s property values. They knew this day would come, but they were living in the moment like any other business would have.’”

The Herald Tribune. “Jeffrey J. Lauro was another of those energetic builder-developer deal makers who appeared to have the knack for making millions during Southwest Florida’s real estate boom. But when the real estate market soured, Lauro not only defaulted on millions of dollars in loans to banks and investors, but he has been charged by the Charlotte County Sheriff’s Office with stealing nearly $200,000 through a construction loan scheme.”

“‘He came to me to buy building lots,’ said Tom Welchman, a Port Charlotte real estate agent. ‘I loaned him $280,000. He bought and sold the lots within 40 days and never paid me back.’”

“‘He owes me about $3 million from putting together projects for him in Deep Creek and Burnt Store Lakes,’ said John Kingston, a Charlotte county mortgage broker and landowner. ‘He never paid and now the land is tied up in bankruptcy.’”

“Messages left for Lauro at a family residence in California and with his criminal attorney, Jason Goldman, were not returned.”

“‘I’m sure there are hundreds of real estate investors, as well as other local professionals dependent on the real estate market, that have had their livelihoods and personal finances turned upside down by the horrible turn of events due to volatile local real estate values,’ Goldman said.”

The St Petersburg Times. “Millions of dollars in debt and sued by dozens of disgruntled customers, the developers of the Clearwater Cay Club are liquidating some of their property to try to stay afloat.”

“During the real estate boom, Cay Club partners Dave Clark and Dave Schwarz made millions selling condo-hotel units. In Clearwater, the pair promised to convert apartment buildings into luxury condominiums on Old Tampa Bay. Investors from across the country sued, saying Cay Club violated securities laws by luring them into contracts with promises of quick appreciation and easy rental income.”

“Instead, many units are worth only half of what buyers paid for them. Cay Club also reneged on promises to rebate part of the purchase price through a ‘lease back’ program that put units in a rental pool.”

“At the auction, 10 of the condos and 10 of the boat slips will go to the highest bidder without a reserve price.”

The Orlando Sentinel. “Mitchell Harlee recently became a first-time homeowner in Orange County, fulfilling a lifelong dream despite some past bill-payment problems. ‘I had credit issues,’ he said.”

“A single father raising two daughters, Harlee improved his credit score by working closely with an east Orlando real-estate agent, Michele Guzman, who specializes in first-time buyers. Harlee attended Guzman’s free seminars and followed her advice for about a year — and finally was able to buy a spacious, four-bedroom, two-bath home in Pine Hills for $150,000.”

“He got a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with an interest rate of 5.9 percent. Better still, ‘I didn’t have to put a penny down,” he said, because he qualified for an Orange County down-payment-assistance program that Guzman told him about. ‘I couldn’t have done it without the help,’ Harlee said.”

“Single-family home construction in the Orlando area has stopped its downward spiral, according to a first-quarter survey by Charles Wayne Consulting Inc. of Maitland.”

“But the reason for that, said Jim Lewis, president of the real-estate research and consulting company, is because ‘they can’t go much lower.’”

“Only 916 new homes were started in subdivisions in the Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake and northeast Polk area during the three months that ended March 31.”

“Lewis found that only about 20 subdivisions out of the 376 ‘active’ subdivisions in the region accounted for more than 200 of the housing starts. That means, he said, that most of the subdivisions in Central Florida ‘weren’t [active] at all,’ with builders sitting on a combined 24,500 vacant lots.”

“And those are only the lots that are ‘fully developed and immediately buildable,’ Lewis said — his inventory count doesn’t include the thousands of other, unimproved lots in future development plans.”

The Palm Beach Post. “With no signs of a real-estate rebound in sight, a slew of buyers are trying to get out of their luxury condo contracts at Boca Raton-based Altman Development Corp.’s waterfront project in Stuart.”

“They’re taking the approach du jour when it comes to backing out of condo contracts around Florida: claiming Altman subsidiary Harborage Cottages-Stuart LLLP violated the Interstate Land Sales Full Disclosure Act.”

“The act, a 40-year-old law designed to protect land buyers or renters against fraud, requires, among other things, that developers of subdivisions of 100 or more nonexempt lots provide each buyer with a detailed property report.”

“The Harborage buyers say their contracts are null because they never received such a report.”

“In one of the lawsuits, filed May 15, Palm City residents R. Scott and Patricia Stone also claim the quality of construction on their $430,000 Harborage condo was not as good as the developer promised.”

“But Altman denies construction was sub-par and claims it is exempt from providing the property reports. The buyers are just trying to wriggle out of the contracts because real estate values have dropped, said Tony DiTocco, financial and legal consultant to Altman.”

“‘It’s all economic,’ he said. ‘It’s all a function of the marketplace.’”




RSS feed | Trackback URI

140 Comments »

Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 07:19:26

Who needs coffee? Ben’s posts on Florida are enough to scare anyone awake.

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 07:45:11

LOL!

 
Comment by SLOBear
2008-05-27 08:53:42

The Florida posts make us in Cali look like geniuses.

Nothing like lending 11X gross income on a mobile home. How could it not fail?

 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-05-27 07:20:47

“Despite the damage, he still plans to get back into investing in real estate.”

(Whack!) “Thank you sir, may I have another!”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-27 08:25:55

Was that whack with a Joshua Tree?

Comment by not a gator
2008-05-27 09:35:21

gator tail

 
 
Comment by captain John
2008-05-27 08:29:42

Joshua tree?

 
Comment by captain John
2008-05-27 08:32:13

Or trout round the head?

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 07:23:51

Florida gets more comical and frightening every day…

(house bubble soap opera?)

“As The Loan Turns”

Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 07:34:26

“Days Of Our Lies”

Comment by Danull
2008-05-27 07:56:26

“The Bold and the Bankrupt”

Comment by pressboardbox
2008-05-27 08:53:17

“All My homeless Children”

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Danull
2008-05-27 09:00:30

“The Dumb and the Reckless”

 
Comment by DrChaos
2008-05-27 10:06:50

Desperate Houselies

 
Comment by MassRenter
2008-05-27 16:17:09

“One Lie to Live”

 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 09:15:38

Like turds swirling in the toilet………….. So these are the Days of our Lives.

Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-05-27 12:06:46

exeter……. DOUG Exeter?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2008-05-27 09:57:28

“Florida gets more comical and frightening every day…”

This letter to the editor was in our local paper yesterday (scroll down to the letter titled “Time for Florida to leave?”)

http://www.wataugademocrat.com/0_editorial.php

 
 
Comment by megamike
2008-05-27 07:31:15

Am I living in another world here in Sarasota Fl?? Check this out Two retail powerhouses in a race over Sarasota’s luxury market
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080522/BUSINESS/805220594/1661

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-05-27 08:51:07

Though not a shopaholic (neither is my wife), I often marveled at how few upscale shopping venues there were when we lived in Sarasota. Especially given the demographics at the time (2002-2005).

 
Comment by Chip
2008-05-27 10:35:53

I think that at least the latter of the two is designed to feed off all the new money in Lakewood Ranch. By locating next to I-95, they must be hoping to pull in Naples-bound drivers, too.

Can’t say much for the timing.

 
 
Comment by BubbleViewer
2008-05-27 07:32:13

“Mario Garcia, a Mexican national…was making $12.50 an hour at a Bradenton lumber company when he bought a Ruskin mobile home for $279,000 in 2005.”
“With the loans’ high interest rates - 10.269 and 11.538 percent, respectively - he would have paid more than $1 million through the 30-year life of the loans.”
A million dollars. For a mobile home. Just when I think I’ve seen/heard it all, here comes another hard-to-believe story.

Comment by rusty
2008-05-27 07:43:59

‘mexican national’ = illegal immigrant, who couldn’t even read English.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-27 08:58:28

Our Tucson papers use the same terminology. And it fools no one.

 
 
Comment by Les Pendens
2008-05-27 08:18:30

..

A mobile home…

For $ 279,000…

To an illegal immigrant lumberyard worker…

In Ruskin…

My Gawd what has happened…

Folks, I live about 70 miles east of Ruskin and there is nothing there. NOTHING. I put my boat into Tampa Bay at Ruskin. It is basically where they grow tomatoes and where some of the Carnie Sideshow Freaks from Giants Camp ( Gibsonton ) moved down to. Think of having the Lizard Man or the Three Legged Woman in another trailer next door.

Nothing but scrub palmetto, hot sand, and US 41. There has never been much in Ruskin. Nobody in their right mind would pay almost $300,000 for a trailer there.

Gawd what were the bankers thinking.

..

Comment by Tom
2008-05-27 11:56:19

What if the the girl next door was a bearded lady?

 
Comment by RJ
2008-05-27 11:56:45

You forgot the women’s prison in Riverview.

 
Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 12:10:55

Correction: No one would pay $50,000 to live there.

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-05-27 15:15:35

I used to live in Ruskin and now live one town north. The fact that it had nothing there was a huge plus and I liked it. The carnie folks live about 15 or so miles up the road in Gibsonton. Ruskin sucks now that it is full of crapbox development and is crawling with illegals.

 
 
Comment by gascap
2008-05-27 10:46:29

Lots of anecdotes from San Diego over Memorial day weekend:

Usually traffic is hellacious on Memorial day Monday and labor day Monday heading north on I5 late afternoon/early evening as everyone heads back to LA after the 3day weekend. I headed north at 6pm and was shocked, there was virtually no cars all the way from del mar to oceanside.

There was a news segment showing empty beaches compared to full beaches in memorial days past. MSM can’t figure out where everyone is, attibuted it to either cooler weather or booze ban.

Came across a new looking Lexus SUV stopped in the median, saw a guy walking back towards it with a gallon of gas in his hand, evidently driving an expensive car no longer means you have enough money to gas it up.

Wife said there was a “normal-looking guy, not homeless” in Albertson’s parking lot in del mar asking for gas money. For those who don’t know, average house in del mar is $1.5M and everyone is either rich or acts like it.

 
 
Comment by Dave of the North
2008-05-27 07:35:11

“And she won’t be buying real estate as an investment anytime soon. ‘Investing in real estate is for the rich,’ Walker said.”

It’s for the smart, Christine. You don’t have to be rich, but being smart helps a lot.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-27 07:50:37

Dave of the North,

I’ll make it even more simple, “Life’s tough ( it’s tougher when you’re stupid )

When her friend “backed out of the contract” that “should” have told her something right there but no one was willing to heed the warning signs. The other thing is that if she had such an “in” and “great credit” what was she doing with a loan rate that high? Just curious.

Comment by denquiry
2008-05-27 09:24:28

I think john wayne said this, “Life is hard. Life is harder when your stupid. “

 
 
Comment by combotechie
2008-05-27 07:55:10

Buffett: “When you combine ignorance and borrowed money, the consequences can get interesting.”

 
Comment by climber
2008-05-27 08:48:15

I think she has a point. You can’t invest if you don’t have money. You don’t have money if you don’t save. If you can afford to save, and then still have money left over to invest you’re rich.

I don’t remember the exact #, but something like 70% of the world’s population lives on $1 per day or less.

Investing is not necessary.

Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-05-27 09:17:29

They had excellant credit and $43,500 saved for a downpayment for their investment.

Comment by Chip
2008-05-27 10:40:05

How do you have near perfect credit, as the manager of a mortgage branch, no less, and end up with an 8.45% subprime mortgage rate? For that matter, how does anyone maintain near-perfect credit when they tend to make such stupid decisions?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 09:17:55

Wrong. Real estate investing is for the poor. Trump got his money from daddy who made it in construction and lending. Not buying retail and adding x%.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-27 09:42:26

exeter,

Exactly. That has ALWAYS been my impression. The barriers to entry are usually quite low and there seem to be an entry point for all income groups! Can’t swing a Steve Wynn-sized deal? Don’t worry, we have condos down the block!

 
 
 
Comment by intheknow
2008-05-27 07:37:58

“‘They lost $12,500 because of their stupidity,’ Kandel said. ‘That’s the problem with lenders right now: They don’t have an exit strategy.’”

So the real estate broker who couldn’t see the market turning is calling the lender stupid? I guess Mr. Kandel’s exit strategy was to hold on till he lost everything?

Pot, meet kettle.

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-05-27 07:45:05

“Despite the damage, he still plans on getting back into real estate investing”

I give up.

Let’s see? You’ve lost everything you’ve ever “owned”, owe more than you can EVER hope to pay back and you’re credit is shot entirely to hell! What IS IT… with these people!? Is this just some kind of lip-service thing people say when they’ve had their nuggies kicked into their stomach? Is this some sort of ego defense mechanism humans deploy to salvage what little is left of their dignity?

Even though they seem to readily acknowledge they and the RE market are HOSED for ‘eternity and a day’ they continue to delude themselves into thinking there is somehow room at the table for them to be able to recover everything they’ve lost and still walk away winners? Can someone PLEASE explain the psychology at work here?

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 09:14:39

Simple, it’s called denial.

No, wait, Kunstler’s got it pegged (kunstler dot com, his WA Post article, whether you like him or not, I think he’s spot on with this one):

“Years ago, U.S. negotiators at a U.N. environmental conference told their interlocutors that the American lifestyle is “not up for negotiation.” This stance is, unfortunately, related to two pernicious beliefs that have become common in the United States in recent decades. The first is the idea that when you wish upon a star, your dreams come true. (Oprah Winfrey advanced this notion last year with her promotion of a pop book called “The Secret,” which said, in effect, that if you wish hard enough for something, it will come to you.) One of the basic differences between a child and an adult is the ability to know the difference between wishing for things and actually making them happen through earnest effort.

The companion belief to “wishing upon a star” is the idea that one can get something for nothing. This derives from America’s new favorite religion: not evangelical Christianity but the worship of unearned riches. (The holy shrine to this tragic belief is Las Vegas.) When you combine these two beliefs, the result is the notion that when you wish upon a star, you’ll get something for nothing. This is what underlies our current fantasy, as well as our inability to respond intelligently to the energy crisis.”

Comment by denquiry
2008-05-27 09:26:35

Wall Street and Las Vegas have 1 thing in common. The house ALWAYS wins.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-05-27 10:05:57

Come on ,this so called investor pulled out all the money he could from those properties and has the money stashed somewhere .The lenders are going to eat it . This speculator actually thinks that he can do this much damage and hes going to get back into real estate .These people don’t learn ,it’s the lenders that need the big lesson .Thats why I say go after these fraudulent borrowers and get the cash they stashed .

The lender lady who bought the investment property had no intentions of keeping the property and it was going to be a quick flip .Easy money was the big lure and I can’t believe that the borrowers were not fraudulent on their loan applications, at least at what their intent was with the property . A investor should put 25% down ,not 10% .A little lie ends up getting a couple into a investment that they really couldn’t afford or deserved . Stupid lenders .

It is my belief that the bulk of defaulting borrowers in some way or manner obtained a loan by fraud and in many cases it was the loan agent/real estate agent playing games with the paper work with the borrowers acceptance .Why would real estate agents show property to people who can’t qualify unless they have connections with crook loan agents . I can just see the commissioned sales people saying ,”Don’t worry ,I know a guy that can get you into this house .”

How many of the illegal immigrants were just used as straw buyers and given hard core cash to become a owner ? I will say it over and over again that this housing boom was riddled with fraud and constitutes the biggest crime wave in history .

This was a very serious crime wave that does not deserve a bail out because the borrowers were not sincere borrowers and they will walk or will not be able to pay .Also the money could not of kept flowing without incorrect ratings on risk as well as the industry not during the job of preventing fraud by underwriting loans . The whole loan industry and real estate industry was corrupt in every way .Crime should be addressed ,not bailed out, and the creeps are still out there pulling their crimes .

Would like to see mainstream media addressing the true nature of this widespread crime wave ,rather than interviewing borrowers as poor FB’s and the real estate industry as poor people who are just the victims of a out of the blue contraction of real estate . Crime is extremely destructive on so many levels, yet this big cover-up continues . This lending crime wave is a cover-up and such a violation of a law and order society that it’s a crying shame .

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by DinOR
2008-05-27 10:27:58

Housing Wizard,

As usual, well said. I’d make them fill out a complete balance sheet with everything they own. If they don’t have cash, they’ll have jet skis and Harley’s etc. Perhaps the part of the lure? Playing strictly with the house’s money and really no way to walk away a loser?

They probably did enough “equity skimming” to recoup their intitial ( and modest ) down payment plus do some cash-out re-fi’s along the way. When you put it into the context of FRAUD then it makes perfect sense as to why these people can’t wait for a Round II.

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-27 10:58:52

That’s right, HW… the media needs to quit portraying the FBs as poor victims and start showing them as corrupt co-conspirators of their own downfall.

They also need to stop treating Bernanke and Greenspan as rock stars. Of course, the MSM is certainly not run by renters and therefore their bias is implicit.

One has to wonder how much power the MSM, the finance industry and government will have in avoiding the law of gravity?

 
 
Comment by DinOR
2008-05-27 10:08:19

Lost in Utah,

Very apt description. I’m just beside myself with disbelief as to how anyone could internalize all the data out there and STILL come to any conclusion that involves “good fortune”?

Bear Stearns didn’t make it. 260 Mortgage Lenders didn’t make it. Billions in mystical, magical “equity” up in smoke but somehow THEY’RE going to end up just fine? Denial no doubt is a big part of it. People may deny to themselves that they are very ill and perhaps even fantasize about having a normal life. I have no problems with that at all.

What amazes me is if you had someone that could never say “no” to a party, get diagnosed with serious illness and then have them somehow think not only has all that not caught up with them, but they will also be better than ever! Oh and of course not have to make any lifestyle changes.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by kirisdad
2008-05-27 10:01:27

And those, who obviously can’t afford it, dropping 50 bucks a week on lottery tickets. If you’re honest about it, you’ll admit, that this is the audience Obama ( and Oprah) plays to. Thank you Lost.

Comment by snake charmer
2008-05-27 10:42:58

No, it’s the audience that prosperity gospel preachers and those that promote casino gambling play to. That is one of Kunstler’s points: regardless of political party, our country’s real religion is the worship of unearned riches and the thinking that something can be had without paying for it. Flipping houses played right into this mentality. So did flipping tech stocks issued as part of an IPO.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 10:59:20

“that this is the audience Obama ( and Oprah) plays to.”

This is the audience that voted for George W not once, but twice.
This is also the crowd willing to play along with McCain, and his hundred year war in Iraq, and the chance to start a third war in Iran. No clue that these military adventures are ruinously expensive and are currently unpaid…and the costs will drain this country for generations.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by denquiry
2008-05-27 11:26:11

I never voted for bush, nor his poppy. I draw the line when it it comes to electing vegetables (aka shrubs) for presidents.

 
 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-27 10:26:25

Evangelical Christianity has nothing to do with wishing and Oprah and Obama caused the housing mania? Really? I learn so much here…

Comment by kirisdad
2008-05-27 11:06:38

Well, I said “if you’re honest”.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 13:44:44

Well, I said “if you’re honest”.

Well, Kirisdad, can you read a balance sheet? Or perhaps, just take a look at former Comptroller Walker’s summaries of the unfunded and ongoing liabilities of the two wars we are currently waging.
I am amazed at the parents who are blithely unconcerned with the financial nightmare that is going to be their child’s legacy as American adults.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by James
2008-05-27 07:45:13

Its interesting to see that Florida is moving along with this thing but Clonifornia is still dragging it out. Probably be another year or two before price drops hit desirable areas of LA and San Fran.

Comment by fran chise
2008-05-27 08:42:30

The difference is that California has businesses other than real estate speculation.

Comment by climber
2008-05-27 08:51:45

The difference is that people in FL can still remember houses being affordable. CA houses have been so overpriced for so long, hardly anyone in the state even has an idea of what fair value would be.

Comment by combotechie
2008-05-27 09:00:48

“CA houses have been so overpriced for so long, hardly anyone in the state even has an idea of what fair value would be.”

We are currently immersed in a painful process of finding out. Stay tuned.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by fran chise
2008-05-27 09:14:56

That too.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by packman
2008-05-27 08:58:34

Nail on the head.

I’ve lived in both states, and can vouch for what you say. While certainly Florida does have lots of non-real-estate business - the RE business is a much larger percentage of their economy than in CA, or anywhere else in the country or probably world for that matter.

 
Comment by denquiry
2008-05-27 09:28:27

i think floridians are more stupider than californians, perhaps not by much, but it is telling mind you.

Comment by pos
2008-05-27 10:16:01

You should never name someone stupid with a sentence that contains poor grammar and punctuation. I live in California and I know that the house prices here have a long way to drop.

The hottest and overpriced housing markets occur in the locations where foreign money is buying houses. (Money earned in another country). I live in Cupertino, CA and foreign money buys 60% of the houses purchased here. Manhattan, Miami, and San Francisco: how much do these cities depend on foreign purchases?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by denquiry
2008-05-27 11:38:11

Poor grammar and punctuation!!!
No it’s not.
No it’s not.
No it’s not.
No it’s not.
No it’s not.
No it’s not. Pardon the use of the double negative.
Like the decider says, “Tell a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.

 
 
Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 12:17:47

I didn’t see grammer mistakes but disagree with the premise. After all, CA is where every destructive trend in this country has begun (SUV, McMansions, stock and house flipping).

People in Florida are naive but not stupid.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by CrackerJim
2008-05-27 13:09:25

Does this mean people in California are stupid but not naive?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ann
2008-05-27 07:48:08

“Real estate agent Joseph Kandel made lots of money buying and reselling residential properties in Southwest and Central Florida before and during the 2004-06 housing boom. During one 18-month period, he said, he made $440,000 flipping five properties.”

“He used those proceeds to qualify for subprime, adjustable-rate loans to buy more houses. Then the sizzling local housing market fizzled, much to his surprise. ‘I know nothing lasts forever, but I didn’t see it coming,’ he said. ‘All I knew was I was making cash and making it big.’”

“His income, which had been in six figures, dropped to $17,000 last year - far less than his mortgage payments, which totaled $19,600 a month.”

These kind of people really tick me off..I hope that the lenders go after them with deficiency judgements…too many of them just feel hey I still have my McMansion you can take the other properties I don’t need them…

They rolled the dice and should lose it all!

Comment by not a gator
2008-05-27 09:43:00

No worries, the town will take his house when he fails to pay his property taxes.

 
Comment by Left LA / Moved to Chicago
2008-05-27 12:44:45

The comfort we can take in statements such as Kandel’s is that most of these real estate specu-fools doubled down. Instead of taking that $440,000 and perhaps stashing it away, the idiot just bought more at ever inflated prices. I would guess that 90% of the specuvestors did the exact same thing.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-05-27 07:50:30

Too bad Robert Altman passed away, he could have made a great movie about this Florida tour de farce…

“With no signs of a real-estate rebound in sight, a slew of buyers are trying to get out of their luxury condo contracts at Boca Raton-based Altman Development Corp.’s waterfront project in Stuart.”

 
Comment by reuven
2008-05-27 07:56:53

The couple lost all three houses through foreclosure and filed for bankruptcy.

I went back to the original article and tried to see where the “third house” came from. I get their primary house, and the one they bought and tried to rent, but what’s the other one?

The Walkers, who had near perfect credit, even put 10 percent down on the $435,000 home. But they still ended up with a 8.45 percent subprime interest rate.

If they had “perfect credit” and put 10% down, how did they end up with 8.45%? Something’s not making sense here! (Also, did the 10% come from a HELOC on their first or second home.)

And can anyone tell me if the Sub Prime mortgages in general–because the theory was that they were “affordability products”–required you to live in the home you were getting the mortgage on?

While the Walkers are to be commended, somewhat, for admitting it was their own fault, are they actually schemers and fraudsters trying to look respectable?

They also claim they “lost everything” but they’re going to get a considerable amount of money in the form of tax-free forgiven mortgage debt, which is equivalent to income. They made hundreds of thousands of dollars tax free, when all is said and done. They took a risk-free chance t get-rich-quick with a harebrained scheme

Comment by reuven
2008-05-27 08:00:02

Oh! I see the third home here:

They also owned their residence in Twin Rivers and another home out-of-state.

Although if they, in fact, owned these houses they wouldn’t have lost them, right? This reporter glosses over too much!

Your primary house in FL is protected against judgements, isn’t it? So this means they probably had lines-of-credit on it, which caused them to lose it if they didn’t pay back, right?

Comment by Les Pendens
2008-05-27 08:23:25

“Your primary house in FL is protected against judgements, isn’t it?”

Your primary home is protected against a BK filing; but they can still attach liens against it.

Also, if they HELOC’ed, the bank has recourse and can foreclose ( I think ) if you don’t pay up on the HELOC.

I don’t have a HELOC - somebody can help out here - but I think if you default on a HELOC the banks can come after you and put you to the curb.

..

 
 
Comment by Ed G
2008-05-27 08:27:11

They got 8.45% because they were investing. You can get 5.9% to buy your first home and if your debt service is reasonable (the estimated mortgage, HOA, and other home expenses are less than 30% of after tax income). But if you’re buying a third house and you don’t actually have the income to pay the mortgage (aka you’re going to ‘flip’ it), then essentially you’re asking the bank to loan you money so that your debt service on your properties is like 100% or more of your income. That in many cases is a sub-prime lending situation and carries with it a higher rate.

Comment by reuven
2008-05-27 09:22:34

Ok, so at least they probably didn’t lie on their mortgage application..they didn’t claim they were living in the house. They get a point for that.

Though I remember when I put 20% down on my house in 1990…they actually checked back bank statements to see where the money came from. It it was a loan, they wouldn’t have accepted it. I’m guessing these folks HELOC’d to put that 10% down…maybe that’s allowed for an “investment”?

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-27 10:38:01

What happened to all the honest lenders? Were they forced into retirement? Sent to re-education camps? Did Greenspan convince everyone that money is essentially free?

How can you have a complete loss of common sense in just 10 or so years?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Ed G
2008-05-27 10:39:08

Maybe they HELOC’d, or maybe they actually had the cash. A lot of people who got caught up in the real estate debacle actually had decent incomes. But instead of living within their means or being savers, they figured that without any investing experience that they could become wealthy by selling homes.

A similar thing happened in the dot-com era. Technology companies issued stock to their employees, employees felt very very wealthy, so instead of selling the stock and making a decent return, then diversifying the proceeds into mutual funds or something; they plowed more of their investments into risky companies with zero experience or history.

Jim Cramer (not a huge fan of his, but like his ideas, even if his execution isn’t solid) has a saying, ‘Bulls make money, bears make money, hogs get slaughtered’. Some people don’t know when to call it quits, or accept the good fortune of a rising home price or valuable stock options.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Chip
2008-05-27 10:47:22

“They got 8.45% because they were investing.”

I can see that interest rate for an investment, particularly if there is little or no down, but I don’t understand the label “subprime” for this one.

 
 
 
Comment by grubner
2008-05-27 08:00:13

‘It seemed like it was no risk at that time,’ she said. ‘I was trying to get ahead by putting my money in a sure thing.’”

Oh Lord, statements like this make my head feel like exploding.

One more time, “I was trying to get ahead by putting my money in a sure thing.’

I’ve known gerbils that were smarter that this.

Comment by not a gator
2008-05-27 09:45:47

what kills me are my coworkers who won’t believe me that their pensions are not exactly safe…

 
 
Comment by girlbear
2008-05-27 08:08:33

During the bubble, I never understood the frenzy to buy a home in a place that you couldn’t live 12 months out of the year. Well, I guess you could if you ran the A/C 24/7 for 4 months and never went outside…….
Florida is uninhabitable during the summer IMHO

Comment by francotirador
2008-05-27 09:05:10

Boy, it really is tiring to hear some of you rant about Florida in the Summer. I live in Southern Florida now. I actually lived up North most of my life. I’ll take Florida’s Summers over Northern Winters any day. Unless you’re doing some heavy work outside it shouldn’t be much of a problem. Hell, you can lounge around and in the pool. You don’t have to put on ten layers of clothing. You don’t have to worry about ice and snow and driving in them. This is Jimmy Buffett’s Florida. Just throw on a t-shirt and your flip flops and enjoy your life year-round.

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 09:21:06

I spent a summer in Tampa once going to the university. I felt like I was underwater, the humidity killed me - but I’m from the drylands, maybe you get used to it.

But whoa, I sure could whack a tennis ball at that low altitude. In Colorado and Utah, we’re at 4000 ft on up and the atmospheric pressure makes things act differently. I was about ready to take on the pros, came back home, and… took up croquet.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-27 09:23:56

I’ll second that one franco. Yeah it’s hot in FL but New England is depressing, cold and dark from October to March.

Comment by francotirador
2008-05-27 09:56:53

“I’ll second that one franco. Yeah it’s hot in FL but New England is depressing, cold and dark from October to March.”
Exactly. And here in Southern Florida damb near every day is a sunny day.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Ann
2008-05-27 14:33:58

Where in Southern Florida? I lived in South Florida and you couldn’t pay me to go back..lots of sunny days yes…but also LOTS and LOTS of way to humid to even hang out at the pool days too, horrible afternoon thunder showers that did nothing to fix the humidity..only made it worse..overpriced jack in the box homes and too much of a Joneses mentality, high cost of living,..I like living in northern GA..climate is perfect long spring and long fall, just enough winter to get you in the mood, nice 4 season change, little to no snow, MUCH lower cost of living, and GOD BLESS no more of those stupid hurricanes coming to get us for 7 days only to arrive as a light rain or South Florida beaches that you were afraid to go in due to 1)Bacteria alerts 2)Rip currents or 3)Sharks..I will go back to visit friends in SFL but live there again? NEVER…

 
Comment by Ann
2008-05-27 14:35:28

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/palmbeach/sfl-527ripcurrents,0,2540280.story

My point made with the great South Florida beaches…

 
Comment by francotirador
2008-05-27 17:40:15

Ya know, miserable people can find faults in every place they live and/or visit. Let me know where there’s perfect weather with no threat of any natural disaster because I’d sure like to live there. Oh, and I didn’t know we were talking about affordability here. Evidently, since you are now living in Georgia, and you speak of it, affordability is a problem for you. Georgia and Southern Florida are a world apart. A person who enjoys and can truly afford this region of Florida would have nothing to do with any part of Georgia. I’m certainly one of them. And by the way, there were no thunderstorms today. Just a beautiful, sunny 84 degrees. Neveretheless, I’ll take some thunderstorms in Southern Florida over a clear day in bumpkin land any day.

 
 
Comment by grumpy realist
2008-05-27 17:47:56

At least the northern states don’t have spiders big enough to carry off small dogs, which is what Florida has….

….let alone the alligators….

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Chip
2008-05-27 10:53:30

I grew up in Orlando and went to school in the ’40s, ’50s and ’60s when we had no air conditioning and nobody I knew had a pool. Had to wear a shirt and tie to school, again with no a/c. We just did it and enjoyed life. Open the windows; run a fan, drive with the windows down. I played tennis every day that it didn’t rain. You can get used to it, if you want to.

Comment by DC in LBV
2008-05-28 08:40:18

That’s true. My in-laws still rarely turn on their A/C. I love listening to northerners complaining about the heat, insects, alligator/sharks, and anything else Florida. I just wish they would all leave the state, and leave it to those of us who want to be here.

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2008-05-27 10:58:31

If you aren’t heat-tolerant or don’t think you can become so, I don’t recommend living here. I actually was wondering the other day what the population of this state would be if air conditioning wasn’t widely available. My guess is that it probably would drop back to 1 million, which is about where it was before air conditioning became widely available after WWII.

My favorite quote, from an grizzled old cracker co-worker born here in the 1940s, is “before mosquito repellant and air conditioning Florida wasn’t worth a s__t.”

Comment by Kandy Kane-DelMoir
2008-05-27 12:31:17

Everbawdy stay the hell out. If you think you hear banjo music when you read these threads, you ain’t heard nothing like what you’ll hear if you come down here and buy you a condominyum. Read your Hiassen and stay the hell out my state, y’all, I’m sirius.

Comment by spike66
2008-05-27 13:49:18

“Everbawdy stay the hell out. If you think you hear banjo music when you read these threads, you ain’t heard nothing like what you’ll hear if you come down here and buy you a condominyum. Read your Hiassen and stay the hell out my state, y’all, I’m sirius.”

See, here’s a person in Florida who has mastered grammar, spelling and punctuation. I’m so relieved.
And this person can probably shoot straight too.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Kandy Kane-DelMoir
2008-05-27 14:20:58

Who say I cain’t shoot skraight!? Wait up, that ain’t been spoke right… dern y’all yankee hordes, now you got me mixing my dialects. Y’all make me so dag mad I cain’t even talk, but jist you come on down like I told you and get one of these condos and we’ll see can I shoot better’n I talk.
(Bwang dang dang dang-a diddlediddle danga dang dang twang dang deeeeee! Biddle bing!)

Thetair parenthetical what you see above this here, it is meant to represent the banjo refrain what is a’constantly playin’ up in my brain.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Moman
2008-05-27 12:24:10

Great marketing material - it will keep people away from this state.

I love Florida summers. At times the heat gets taxing but I will take it any day over winter. After 3-4 years of living in FL year round I started to enjoy the two seasons (Hot/wet and Warm/dry). During the winter I find myself missing the heat and the summer afternoon rains.

 
 
Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-27 08:13:00

“The act, a 40-year-old law designed to protect land buyers or renters against fraud, requires, among other things, that developers of subdivisions of 100 or more nonexempt lots provide each buyer with a detailed property report.”

Gee, why would the State of Florida need an act like that? LOL

 
Comment by the_economist
2008-05-27 08:28:50

Mario Garcia, a Mexican national…was making $12.50 an hour at a Bradenton lumber company when he bought a Ruskin mobile home for $279,000 in 2005.”

Ahh yes, I remember driving thru Ellenton and Parish as a kid. The only time we ever stopped was when I had to take an emergency dump. I fondly remember high stepping it out in to the woods with
the spare roll.

 
Comment by captain John
2008-05-27 08:34:21

Is it me or are the MSM finally getting past the “poor little homeowner losing their house” and now realizing that most of them were fraudsters and specuvestors?

I really hope so…

 
Comment by Mike
2008-05-27 08:48:39

A little O.T but in reponse (which somebody mentioned yesterday) related to US gas prices and European gas prices which means those who bought in the US ‘burbs” over the last 10 years and have to commute via their cars and really getting whacked. Gas prices in the UK are about $8 a gallon BUT a US gallon is smaller that the Imperial (UK) gallon. Here in Southern California I am paying $4.30 a US gallon. The true difference in UK gas prices to US gas prices is probably UK $6 to US $4.

The overall picture is that in most european countries, the public transport systems in the larger cities are far more extensive than in the major US cities, including New York. Public transport in Los Angeles is a joke. I was once dumb enough to use public transport and it took 3 hours to travel 40 miles. Added to that, in London for instance, drivers who use their cars to drive into the city get hammered with a hefty “zone” fee. If you want to take your car into central London, you might want to have your bank manager sitting next to you so you can get an overdraft.

In addition, the distances are much smaller. If I go to the market here in Southern California, it’s 3 miles there and back. In the UK most of the the markets were all within walking distance. The distance between major cities is also less. London to Birmingham is 100 miles. London to Paris is about 150 miles. Los Angeles to San Diego is about 200 + miles. L.A to S.F is over 400 miles.

The above shows why US property values will create big problems for those who bought a long way away from the big work centers. I know someone who lives 70 miles from her job. She bought in an area where there is NO work except low wages jobs (fast food, etc.) and that situation applies to many of these new communities in Southern California, in places like Temecula in North San Diego county (many, many foreclosures) and the Inland Empire (a disaster area). In my friend’s case, even though she has equity in her house, the current food and gasoline situation (she has 2 kids) is slowly sending her into bankruptcy so even those with equity in their houses are getting caught in this mess.

I was watching Hank Greenberg talking about the US economy a few days ago. I only listen to about 3 people where the economy is concerned (certainly not Paulson or Bernanke who are simply shills) and I avoid the comedy acts on programs like CNBC’s Comedy Business Show. The 3 are Hank Greenberg, Mort Zuckerman and George Soros. Greenberg said that because this mess has been created by massive “leverage” in all areas of the economy (including property of course) the economy will not start to recover until all the excess leverage has been “bled” out of the financial world. Folks, that a looooooong way away. Again, 2 or 3 years at least (with a few dead cat bounces pulling in falling knife catchers) before this property mess is cleared up.

Comment by Chip
2008-05-27 11:01:34

“In addition, the distances are much smaller. If I go to the market here in Southern California, it’s 3 miles there and back. In the UK most of the the markets were all within walking distance. The distance between major cities is also less. London to Birmingham is 100 miles. London to Paris is about 150 miles. Los Angeles to San Diego is about 200 + miles. L.A to S.F is over 400 miles.”

I think that is the crux of the matter, when comparing European driving costs and habits to those in the U.S. - the great differences in mileage.

As for housing far from work, perhaps retirees will begin looking at those, as prices completely tank. It is not prohibitively expensive to re-do an air handling system to fence off parts of the house that are little used, nor to add a whole lot of insulation in the attic. If these are bedroom communities, then shopping is already in place. All I’d worry about then is the time and distance to good medical care.

Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-27 15:24:15

perhaps retirees will begin looking at those, as prices completely tank.

um, well…don’t want to be too far from the hospitals either..

 
Comment by M in Michigan
2008-05-29 11:15:45

Housing far from work: Convert some shopping centers and McMansions offices and everyone can walk to work. I wonder how long such a transition will take if gas prices keep rising.

 
 
Comment by gglflkr
2008-05-27 12:17:39

In addition to the geographically smaller dimensions of European countries compared to the US, I might say that (the implied) high population density of such countries plays a big role in providing high efficiency as a society.
We know that things move faster (more efficiently) in crowded cities than in smaller cities or in the country side. The demand for high efficiency translates into investing in infrastructure as more people agree to spend tax money on such projects. Of course, high usage rate for such facilities and services justifies the investment as well.
Coming from S. Korea and having been to Japan at times, I know those small but highly populated countries had to invest in such projects for the society to function efficiently.
In a way, US has been living in a luxury that was provided by the wealth accumulated over recent century of wars and poverty outside of her border. It appears that we are now depleting the saving account afforded to us, and are getting more equitable with the rest of the world.

 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-27 12:21:36

Diesel now $5.25 in Oahu.

Comment by joe momma
2008-05-27 13:18:50

I saw $5.50 in Orange County. I was shocked. How long can the Fed continue to keep rates low? These people are totally insane.

 
Comment by tresho
2008-05-27 14:18:39

I pity interstate truckers in Hawaii, they can’t possibly make a profit at those diesel prices.

 
 
Comment by Joshua Tree
2008-05-27 19:43:34

Mike, you will find the following interesting:

Current petrol prices in Graeter London, UK about 114.2 pence per litre.

That’s USD$2.25 per litre for unleaded. A US gallon is 3.78 litres, whearas an Imperial gallon is 4.55 litres. It doesn’t matter when you price compare in litres.

USD$2.25 per litre is USD$8.52 per US gallon.

So, when you say “The true difference in UK gas prices to US gas prices is probably UK $6 to US $4.”, you are probably talking last month’s figures.

Try a simple doubling of your gas price, to arrive at the equivalent paid in the UK.

Batter up! You ain’t seen nothing yet!

Comment by Joshua Tree
2008-05-27 19:48:14

Ahhrrrrggghhh! Perview is my fiend!

Graeter = Greater

whearas = whereas

Sheesh!

 
 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-05-27 08:57:27

It ain’t over yet! (But we all know that.)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080527/ap_on_bi_ge/home_prices

Comment by Mike
2008-05-27 09:31:23

And, of course, we are living in a world of total manipulation where economic numbers are concerned. Property valuations are not included in inflation numbers. Food and energy are not included. However, rent prices ARE included. The whole economy is “rigged” to sucker in the unwary and un-educated. Makes one wonder how many of the un-educated and un-aware of having conversations at work and telling people that property is selling again because of the latest sales figures (which are fake). Maybe the Paulson’s and Bernanke’s of the world figure we are all dumb enough to take what they say at face value. My posting yesterday about how the bank “take backs” from a failed auction are entered as sales, because the bank had to buy them back, is a classic example of how the whole thing is “rigged”.

 
 
Comment by joe momma
2008-05-27 09:16:42

Case-Shiller Update: Los Angeles Market

Just looked at the new Case-Shiller data for Los Angeles. Every month I update my spreadsheet and graph to see where we are. It is a nice, unemotional way to see when the waters might be safe to buy again.

The data goes back to January 1987. I use that as my starting point, and have two sets of data. One is the Case-Shiller number. The second is the inflation-adjusted index. I use 4% compounded monthly but any number can be plugged in. The idea here is to see where prices should be, where they are, and how much longer they have to fall. The Case-Shiller index is 2 months behind (they just released March 2008), but I use the previous 12 months to estimate the last 2 months. So far it has been very close at predicting the outcome. This month the actual number was significantly worse than the 12 month average predicted it would be, so the downside is accelerating.

Assuming a 4% inflation rate going back to 1987, here is where we stand as of March 2008 for Los Angeles:

LA Price Index March 2008: 207.11
LA Price Index At 4% Inflation: 138.15
LA Market is overvalued by 50%

Obviously the LA market is still WAY overvalued, relative to inflation, but you didn’t need the CS numbers to tell you that. But this does assign a value of “how much” it is probably overvalued. 50% is huge. To put things into perspective, the run-up in prices in Southern California in the late 1980’s never got more than 50% overvalued, relative to inflation. Things are as bad today as they were at the peak of the last bubble, in January 1990.

We have a long way to go yet.

Comment by JP
2008-05-27 09:46:19

How sensitive is your 50% number to the value you used for inflation?
For example, what does 5% inflation yield?

Comment by joe momma
2008-05-27 09:56:42

21% overvalued assuming 5% inflation.

Comment by Chip
2008-05-27 11:09:02

And with 3 or 3.5%, then, it would be much more than 50% overvaluation.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by joe momma
2008-05-27 11:52:01

85% overvalued assuming 3% inflation.

I have no idea where this puppy stops, so I am going to let the Case-Shiller numbers tell me. As I told the wife, we just saved another $15,000 this month by renting. Our down payment would be wiped out in 6 months at this rate. We worked too hard to throw that money away.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Incredulous
2008-05-27 09:20:02

Here we go again:

“New-Home Sales in the U.S. Rose 3.3% . . .

“May 27 (Bloomberg) — New-home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in April after readings for the prior month were revised down, signaling a worsening housing slump is still a threat to the economy.”

Note that the most important detail– “after readings for the prior month [as with every month before] were revised down”– didn’t make the reporter of the alleged jump in sales suspicious.

In June, NAR and the government will be claiming sales rose in May, but that the April figures were revised down. In July, they will be claiming that sales rose in June, but that the May figures were revised down. They’ve done this now EVERY MONTH for the past TWO YEARS, and the Press still falls for it. Reporters must be from the same mold as all those audience members on Montel Williams getting “readings” from Sylvia Browne, despite her astounding bloopers and blunders over the years (one might think that the ghastly prehistoric claws curling from her fingertips would serve as sufficient warning). People believe what they WANT to believe, and evidently the Press wants to believe government and NAR statistics on real estate, that Obama is the Second Coming of Christ, and that illegal immigration is the best thing in the U.S.A. since LEGALLY-DEFINED slavery became politically incorrect.

Comment by Mike
2008-05-27 10:02:51

Boiled down it’s very simple. Obama’s popularity is just a reaction to Bush. He’s the total opposite of a neo-con like Bush who, as even died in the wool Republicans must know, is now so toxic he glows in the dark. Obama is an extreme liberal, black, anti-big corporations, anti-war, etc. He’s even further to the left that Bush’s nemisis (even though he’s dead) FDR.

Truth is, I am also a liberal but when the election arrives I will probably bite my lower lip and vote for McCain for several reasons outside of the fact that I don’t want to see Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton standing to the left and right of Obama at photo-ops with Oprah standing in the background. In case you think that’s racist, it isn’t. If it was Colin-Powell I wouldn’t mind but Sharpton, Oprah and Jackson? No way.

Obviously, the Republicans are going to get slaughtered in November. The fact that the economy will be worse in 6 months time makes it a 100% certainty. There are a whole bunch of mortgage re-sets on the horizon and people using their credit cards for gas and mortgages and for the extra cost of food will be at the end of the rope. (A few facts that most of the, “Now is a great time to buy,” real estate shills are ignoring.) That means a powerful Democratic congress and a powerful Democratic house for 4 years (at least).

The only way to counter having a Democratic congress, Democratic house and Democratic President, is to elect a Republican President, even if you are a liberal and need to take a tranquilizer after you pull the lever, who will be unable to get anything done - including starting another expensive war doomed to failure (Iran) or passing anything too “right wing”. On the other side of the coin, a Republican President will veto most bills put up by the Democrats.

Most governments work best when they cannot do anything. In fact, the only time government works is when the situation at hand requires the different sides to come together or their “image” will be damaged.

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-27 10:48:19

“I will probably bite my lower lip and vote for McCain for several reasons outside of the fact that I don’t want to see Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton standing to the left and right of Obama at photo-ops with Oprah standing in the background. In case you think that’s racist, it isn’t”.

When did Jesse Jackson (accused Obama of ‘acting white’) and Al Sharpton (bad mouthed Obama for calling for calm after Sean Bell verdict and supportin Joe Lieberman) campaign for Obama?

Oh that’s right, they’re all black, so clearly they all think alike.

Not racist, no not you…but certainly hypocritical. If you don’t think Bush, Bernanke, Pat Robertson and Rush Limbaugh won’t be standing next to McCain for photo ops, you really need to get out more.

Comment by Mike
2008-05-27 11:33:00

No, not a hypocritical. Just using my brain. Obviously you missed the point. Frankly, I would be just as unhappy to see Bush, Bernanke, Pat Robertson or Limbaugh or O’Reilly or any of those a**holes standing next to McCain BUT the point is THEY COULDN’T DO ANYTHING. With 2 crooks like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton mumbling in Obama’s ear, they COULD have influence if there were a Democratic house and congress. Read some of Jesse Jackson’s history. A multi-millionaire crook as bad as Cheney. Well…. maybe not that bad. Darth Cheney is a hard act to follow in the corruption world. Al Sharpton owes million in tax dollars and thinks, by being aggressive, he can win his argument even when the facts do not support his argument. Wrong.

If President John McCain had Adolph Hitler standing next to him on the right and Mussolini on his left and there was a Democratic house and Congress he would still be nothing more than a figure head. THAT is the point.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-27 11:57:25

Obama will fail and his failure will be due to racism.

Being half white, black racists democrats won’t vote for him. Being half black, white racists democarats won’t vote for him.
That means about half the dems won’t bother to vote..

Got McCain?

 
 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-27 10:51:20

Obama’s popularity is just a reaction to Bush..

Bush is out. He’s a non-entity for all practical purposes.

Obama’s popularity, what there is of it, is among democrats who had a choice to make.. and it’s a reaction to their dislike of Billary..

 
Comment by aimeejd
2008-05-27 11:08:45

“I will probably bite my lower lip and vote for McCain for several reasons outside of the fact that I don’t want to see Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton standing to the left and right of Obama at photo-ops with Oprah standing in the background. In case you think that’s racist, it isn’t”.

Can I ask you an honest question–what difference does it make if it’s “racist”? What happened to the go old days when people who were racist were just racist? Why do you have to pretend to be something else?

Comment by Mike
2008-05-27 11:35:59

Racist, huh? Here’s a news flash. My step-father was one of the nicest people I have known. Long dead of course as I’m in my 70’s. His race? Born in British Guiana. Father black - mother chinese.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by ulric
2008-05-27 16:36:15

Your reasoning is amazing. Consider that Karl Rove became Bush’s brain and where did we end up? Getting our butts kicked in Iraq and will be paying for that in coming generations.

BTW a black person from another country is not necessarily viewed in the same light as an AA in this country. I know as I am from Guyana a.ka. British Guiana.

 
 
Comment by aimeejd
2008-05-28 07:09:39

Racist, huh? Here’s a news flash. My step-father was one of the nicest people I have known. Long dead of course as I’m in my 70’s. His race? Born in British Guiana. Father black - mother chinese.

Yeah, I know–”some of your best friends,” and all that. Anyway, all I asked is why racist people can’t just say “I’m racist”? What’s the big deal–it’s not illegal.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-05-27 11:17:41

McC’s a lib
gloBull warming an all
increasing cap gains 60% will turn us into Japan

 
Comment by Mo Money
2008-05-27 11:20:56

If you have to tell us it isn’t racist it probably is. Other than that your overall post indicates you’re an oxygen thief.

 
 
Comment by joe momma
2008-05-27 10:21:55

The real estate industry is their number one advertiser. If they printed the truth with even an ounce of skepticism, the advertisers would pull the advertising dollars. So they have no choice. This is the main reason I do not get a newspaper or magazine. They are mostly full of complete corporate sponsored bullshit.

What did you expect? The advertiser pays for the publication. They effectively get to write the articles, or at least have editorial control over what can be printed. No thanks.

 
 
Comment by Inland Empire
2008-05-27 09:40:24

Well at least some of the bad guys are getting caught. I bet this is just the tip of the scams going on out there. My BIL want to do this and ask my advice I laugh so hard I couldn’t talk, he got really piss at me..

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2008/05/23/news/01foreclosure052308.txt

Comment by rusty
2008-05-27 11:28:00

now that is funny, ripping off the illegal immigrant flipper scam artists.

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-05-27 09:50:59

“‘He owes me about $3 million from putting together projects for him in Deep Creek and Burnt Store Lakes,’ ;-)

Now there are some descriptive neighborhood names!

Somehow my mind read them as: “Up Deep Creek” & “Burnt More Flakes” :-)

 
Comment by joe momma
2008-05-27 10:01:04

Too funny, consumer confidence is at a 16 year low. That would be the last time a Bush trashed the economy. You can’t make this shit up.

 
Comment by Renterfornow
2008-05-27 10:45:59

Christine good to hear you joined the bitter renter life. Good lcuk to you. You can save alot of money while you wait for the house prices to come down to sane levels.

Lots of bitter homedebtors just renting a house from the bank. Welcome to debt slavery fools!

 
Comment by aqius
2008-05-27 11:10:49

been awhile since “ByeFl ” posted.

I gave you plenty of good natured flak but I’m curious if you have you actually said “Bye” to Florida & moved to the promised land of Oil City, PA?

if so, how is that working out for you?

Comment by Left LA / Moved to Chicago
2008-05-27 12:53:03

My guess is that he got distracted by the release of Grand Theft Auto 4.

Comment by kirisdad
2008-05-27 13:14:32

Now that’s funny, good one lefty.

 
 
Comment by CrackerJim
2008-05-27 13:19:03

Is internet access available in Oil City, Pa?

 
Comment by oxide
2008-05-27 13:24:23

Good point. Maybe we should put a shout out to him/her in the next Bits Bucket thread.

(btw, I didn’t quite understand the flak. What’s wrong with a cheap house and a McJob in flyover country? Even paycheck-to-paycheck, it’s better off than being $450K in debt in the land of the Governator.)

 
Comment by Joshua Tree
2008-05-27 20:13:09

Yeah, I’ve missed “ByeFL’s” posts almost as much as AnnScott’s.

Whatever happened to AnnScott, anyway? A bit of good-natured ribbing that went wrong, or what?

 
 
Comment by FLA Transplant
2008-05-27 14:44:18

One gets used to the heat.

Moved from Chicago to Florida a few years ago. Things are good down here - blue skies and no union douches.

Don’t miss snow shoveling or depressing grey skies.

Do miss the restaurants and architecture. Fair trade for plentiful sweet tea.

Other than that, people are the same all over.

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post