May 28, 2008

Raising The Titanic

The Journal Gazette reports from Indiana. “The message to the City Council last week was crystal clear: The downtown Harrison Square condominiums will be built. But while developers can promise to construct the building, there is no guarantee people will buy condominiums, live in them and make downtown Fort Wayne the place to be.”

“As of last week, only five of The Harrison’s 62 condominiums had been bought. Bill Martin, of Martin Goldstine Knapke, said the condominium project represents a new product in the Fort Wayne market, and sometimes people are hesitant to change.”

“‘You can’t force them to sign a contract,’ he told the council.”

“Bob Coffee, president of the Fort Wayne Association of Realtors, said in an interview that revitalizing downtown is critical to the health of the community. Persuading people to live downtown in Fort Wayne can be a challenge, he said. ‘I’m just not sure that people in Fort Wayne are quite ready for it yet,’ he said.”

“Mike Connolly has lived at Midtowne for the past three years, but he put down a $1,000 deposit for a condominium at The Harrison with thoughts of upgrading. Connolly said the $260,000 price tag was too much for a second-story unit overlooking the ballpark.”

“‘I don’t think the value is there for what they are asking,’ he said. ‘I think it’s a great project, desperately needed for Fort Wayne. I’m not sure it’s priced right.’”

“Connolly isn’t alone. At least a dozen people have asked to have their $1,000 deposit returned.”

The Register Mail from Illinois. “The Capital Area Association of Realtors reported the 1,841 homes on the market as of this week is a record high for this time of the year.”

“Local developer Gerry Hughes said he believes the uncertain economy has been a factor in the relatively slow traffic since he and his brother, Steve, put two downtown condos on the market in early March.”

“‘People just aren’t sure what’s going to happen. To be honest, if I was looking to buy right now, I might just sit back and wait, unless you have a rock-solid job that’s not affected by the economy,’ Hughes said.”

“Hughes said the brothers cut the initial asking price of $248,000 for the larger condo and $230,000 for the smaller to $220,000 for each. But he said that was based on the going price for downtown condos, not the economy.”

“‘We’ll play it by ear, but we’re not going to have a fire sale. We might have just started out a little high,’ Hughes said.”

“Association president Phil Chiles said he has tried to keep the 2008 numbers in perspective. ‘We keep looking at this and comparing it to the best year on record (2007),’ Chiles said. ‘We’re back where we were in 2004 and 2003. It’s not terrible. It’s just slow.’”

From Medill Reports in Illinois. “New, single-family home sales lingered near low levels not seen since 1991, according to a report Tuesday by the U. S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The report showed April new-home sales in the Midwest were down 39.7 percent from a year ago.”

“Adolfo Laurenti, senior economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, said the spring and summer are prime periods for sales activity, and even with seasonal adjustments, spring hasn’t fared well so far.”

“‘These numbers are a little bit of a disappointment,’ Laurenti said. ‘They are as bad as they were in the early 1990s when we had a recession.’”

“Laurenti said he thinks the large inventory of homes for sale combined with hesitation from potential buyers have kept the real estate market from swinging back up.”

“‘The best we can hope for at this point is for these numbers to stabilize,’ he said. ‘If they could start moving sideways instead of going down, that would be a huge improvement. But I don’t think we are there yet.’”

“The Illinois Association of Realtors reported Friday that total April home sales in the state were down 27.2 percent from the year-ago period. The median price dipped 6.3 percent to $187,500 from $200,000 in April 2007.”

The Detroit News from Michigan. “The Westin Book Cadillac Detroit not only brings some old-fashioned style back to downtown when it opens, but many buyers of the hotel’s upscale condos say they’ll bring the city jobs, too.”

“At least half of the 55 buyers of the housing units at The Book own small- to midsize businesses and many are looking to set up shop or expand their business presence in Detroit, said Jon Grabowski, president of the company handling the sale of the Book Cadillac condominiums.”

“Wes Wyatt, CEO of Cintron Beverage Group in Philadelphia who bought one of The Book’s $1 million-plus penthouses, says he too thinks the Book was too good to pass up. Compared with Philadelphia real estate prices, Wyatt called the seven-figure price tag for his three-story penthouse ‘a bargain.’”

“‘I’m just a big fan of the city,’ added Wyatt, who has described Detroit’s downtown revival as ‘raising the Titanic.’”

“Another penthouse buyer, Bob Bartlett, doesn’t intend to move the insurance cost-containment firm he co-founded, from Farmington Hills to Detroit. ‘But so many people now want us to have meetings at The Book, I can see us benefiting the city,’ Bartlett said.”

“Bartlett lives in Birmingham, and when he mentioned that he was moving to Detroit, ‘A few people told me I was crazy,’ he said. ‘But as more details come out about The Book, some people now think I’m brilliant.’”

The Kalamazoo Gazette from Michigan. “Sales of residential property in the greater Kalamazoo area fell in April, the fourth straight month this year.”

“But the decline was at a far slower rate than in previous months this year, possibly signaling that the housing market has stabilized and may be poised for a rebound, said Matthew Maire, CEO of the Greater Kalamazoo Association of Realtors.”

“‘We’re happy to see that inventory has stabilized and that we may be on the way back up,’ Maire said.”

“The total value of homes sales through the first four months this year also was off, falling 18 percent compared to the same period last year. But in April, the value of those sales declined by 12.8 percent compared to April 2007. In previous months this year, the declines were between 19 percent to 22 percent.”

“Buying activity may be up, but the high number of foreclosure homes on the market tends to depress prices. Through May 1 this year, 337 homes in Kalamazoo County were repossessed by mortgage lenders, up 14 percent from the same period last year.”

“Year to date, the average residential sale price fell to $137,778, down from $149,746 in the same period last year. And year to date, the median sale price dropped to $112,750, down from $125,000 at the same point in 2007.”

The Journal Sentinel from Wisconsin. “Daly’s Pen Shop is one of a handful of high-end retailers still doing business at what is now called the Shops of Grand Avenue.”

“‘It’s because I’m the only fine-writing store in the state of Wisconsin,’ said owner Brad Bodart, who bought Daly’s in 2001. ‘Customers who want to buy something need to come downtown.’”

“But it could be better, and Bodart isn’t happy about the lack of progress from current owner Ashkenazy Acquisitions Corp. of New York, in filling the growing number of empty spaces in the center.”

“It’s a tough time to try to find tenants for an ailing center, with many national retailers closing stores or slowing expansion plans. To make matters worse, the mall is about to lose a major tenant when Linens ‘n Things closes soon.”

“Linens’ exit will create a 30,000-square-foot vacancy and will leave the Plankinton Arcade section of the mall more than half empty. Another store, The Dress Barn, at center court on the second level, closed this month.”

“Even though Milwaukee has added a lot of downtown housing, the number of people working downtown isn’t large, and downtown workers are the basis for downtown retail, said John Melaniphy, a Chicago retail real estate consultant.”

“‘We do extremely well if there are tourists in town,’ said Richard Keppler, owner of Brew City Beer Gear. But there aren’t enough tourists or other customers in the mall often enough these days, said Keppler. ‘It’s very tough,’ he said. ‘We’re at a point where something has to be done.’”

“‘The downtown mall is right smack in the middle of what’s going on,’ Keppler said. ‘Why can’t it get a resurgence? It should get a resurgence.’”

“Rocky Marcoux, city development commissioner, acknowledges that the Grand Avenue’s current tenant mix has few stores that serve the new residents of the upscale condos and apartments being developed in and near downtown.”

“‘They are working very hard to bring in some different retail presence in Grand Avenue,’ Marcoux said. ‘Ashkenazy is not in business to lose money.’”

The Gazette Extra from Wisconsin. “The Janesville real estate market is down, but local homebuilders and real estate agents say it’s nowhere near the free-fall of the national housing market. In Janesville, they say, new home construction was down 12.6 percent last year compared with a 24.8 percent drop on the national level.”

“Sales of existing homes in Janesville dropped 5.5 percent, but the average price of the homes sold rose 2.4 percent to the highest level ever.”

“‘This is not a crash-and-burn market,’ said Dan Kruse, president of the Rock-Green Realtors Association. ‘This is a market that continues to move along steadily, and the sales and prices reflect that.’”

“Realtors sold 927 single-family homes in Janesville last year, a number lower than the previous four years.”

“This year, real estate agents are off to a slower start. Through May 8, they sold 240 homes in Janesville at an average sales price of $128,729. Through the same date last year, they’d sold 321 at an average price of $141,884.”

“‘It’s not a bad time to buy or sell, but we are in a correcting market,’ said Jerry Morse of The Morse Co. in Janesville. ‘With all the national news, move-up buyers are kind of cautious right now. With the foreclosure situation, there are also people out there just looking for bargains.’”

“‘But in most cases, owners aren’t going to sacrifice price. I can show them what the market is doing, but they say that if they can’t get their price, they’ll wait it out,’ he said.”

“‘Last year’s numbers were down, but they weren’t that far off from what we saw in 2000 and 2001,’ said Tom Wellnitz, president of the South Central Wisconsin Builders Association.”

“‘There have certainly been changes in the economy, and a lot of it has to do with how people feel,’ he said. ‘They read the local newspaper and see AP (Associated Press) stories about the housing crisis. But they only read the headline and don’t read any further to see that the problem is in Missouri or Timbuktu.’”

“Wellnitz said the local homebuilding market has been hit hardest in the middle market, where new houses cost around $250,000. Wellnitz expects the inventory of new homes will tighten as fewer builders put up ’spec’ homes, which are homes built without a contract from a buyer.”

“‘With the middle-market problems, I won’t be doing any $250,000 spec homes,’ Wellnitz said. ‘I may do two $150,000 homes instead. The local market had a tough year, but home values continue to increase. When home values start decreasing, that’s a bad sign.’”




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99 Comments »

Comment by Kevin Road
2008-05-28 07:17:49

I have a number of peeps I know that are in mortgage biz. They are finding borrowers who are in trouble and able to convert them to FHA fixed rate mortgages. The problem is even though the terms are much better in a fixed loan at 6%, the borrowers are still having a problem with payments. They are coming from 6-8% ARM but are interest only so the monthly payment isn’t really helping their situation. Even though long term it’s a good loan, the borrowers priority is not just to get in to a better loan, but to get monthly nut lower then what they currently have and that is not happening.

I guess all mortgages are local.

Comment by reuven
2008-05-28 09:07:38

And few of the politicians proposing bail-out schemes have considered that a significant percentage of FBs with option-ARMs, couldn’t afford a 0% 30-year fixed (i.e., divide the house cost by 360), much less a 6% one.

 
Comment by DinOR
2008-05-28 09:08:22

Kevin Road,

So much for the old “You can always re-fi down the road” eh?

This has been a bone of contention with me since 2005. Back then many of us saw that those seeking to re-fi ‘might’ have the income, perhaps the right FICO and a little bit of equity… but few would have all three!

Previously a lack of down payment was quickly glossed over in favor of a great FICO score. The MB could over look your ratty FICO if you had great income. Well, since RE only goes up we didn’t worry about that bothersome equity part now did we!? If you didn’t have it now you’d certainly have some by the time you closed, right?

Comment by OCDan
2008-05-28 10:30:54

I know I am the squeeky wheel on this issue, but that has been my argument as well from 5 years ago.

i realize that So Cal is bubblicious centrasl, so my numbers are skewed.

However, you can’t lend 720K to a family making 100K and even at 0%. Divide by 360 and the prin. is 2K/month. Well, that might work, EXCEPT, you have fire/hurricane/earthquake insurance (or one of them), HOA and/or Mello Roos, mortgage insurance (if you didn’t put 20% down), and maintenance (schucks, there goes 12K on the roof this month).

Sure, without anything but the debt, you could swing 2K on 100K a year, assuming the family makes that much to begin with. However, you throw everything else in and you have a 3K and upwards monthly nut. That is some serious dough.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-28 10:57:29

OCDan,

Good point. I hadn’t even considered all the “Luggage” that goes along with that making it totally unworkable. This in turn creates all of that “built in selling pressure” Housing Wizard loves to address. It should have been obvious that these loans were really more like bridge financing at best?

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Comment by reuven
2008-05-28 11:34:34

Right…and anyone who bought a house that they couldn’t realistically afford at the lowest conceivable fixed rate (6%) certainly doesn’t deserve the tax breaks they currently got (no tax on forgiven mortgage debt) and all the handouts proposed by Hillary/Barack.

People in this position were assuming something magic would happen that will let them suddenly be able to afford it. And even if prices kept increasing…letting them take on more and more debt against the “equity”…there’s still no exit strategy unless they could sell and buy a house for less.

I do not understand how ever increasing prices == affordability, but that’s what the R-E industry, and many politicians, expect us to belive.

 
 
Comment by reuven
2008-05-28 12:16:21

Let’s see…a 100K salary. Let’s suppose these lucky ducks get to keep 70K of that between state and fed tax in CA (because of write-offs for the kids and mortage interest)

That’s 5833/month

Minimum the house—at 0%—would cost. I’m using the minimum possible number that could be plausible.

2000 + 150 PMI + 500 insurance premium + 800 property tax = 3450

5833-3450 = 2383 a month left.

That’s $546 / week

And most people like this will be paying at least $400/month on car payments, leaving about $455/week.

It’s IMPOSSIBLE for a family making 100K/year to afford a 750K house even with a 0% interest loan!

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Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-28 12:33:24

$500 a month for insurance? That’s what I pay for a year!

$800 a month for property tax? I pay $2300 for a year!

California is so hosed.

 
Comment by reuven
2008-05-28 12:57:57

The insurance estimate may be high. As I don’t have a mortgage, I don’t know if lien holders require earthquake insurace, etc. in addition to fire/flood/liability, which could easily make it $500.

$800/month for property tax is probably low!

I don’t have earthquake insurance…it’s not worth it. It has a very high deductible, around 25K, and tops out at 250K, last time I checked. I’m betting that my one-story wood-framed house could at least be made habitable for, say 50K, no matter how badly it shook. So the few $1000/year it costs for a nonsense policy isn’t worth it. Let’s say it was $2500/year. I’ve been in my house 17 years. That would have been $42,500. Add in the 25K deductable, and I’d have to incur over 67K of damage before it would start to pay off.

 
 
Comment by lsheng
2008-05-28 12:31:38

At real 0%, I can borrow all the money on this world and spend whatever way I want. After my time, who cares. This is one reason why no one will lend money at 0%.

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Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-28 07:28:32

“‘We do extremely well if there are tourists in town,’ said Richard Keppler, owner of Brew City Beer Gear. But there aren’t enough tourists or other customers in the mall often enough these days, said Keppler. ‘It’s very tough,’ he said. ‘We’re at a point where something has to be done.’”

Don’t worry, Richard, the gubmint is suing OPEC, the price of gas will go down, tourists will return, and all will be well.

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-28 07:52:55

“‘The downtown mall is right smack in the middle of what’s going on,’ Keppler said. ‘Why can’t it get a resurgence? It should get a resurgence.’”

Lol. I love how downtown boosters now think that malls are a substitute for actual culture and real jobs, but ignore crappy schools, enterprise zones and affordable housing. The consumer economy has become a victim of its own success.

Comment by Bloz
2008-05-28 09:26:43

Here’s what one can get for under 200K in Fort Wayne within a long walk of the proposed stadium.

http://tinyurl.com/5f4ocs

Comment by OCDan
2008-05-28 10:35:34

That is very nice. I like how the ad lists the cost of everything else. The heating is probably a bit low, esp. in the winter, but still. Gives you an idea of what the total monthly nut, incl. utilities and tax will be.

I think serious sellers will begin to follow this kind of lead since just figuring the P&I part of home indebtedness isn’t quite working so well. There is more than just the debt part.

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Comment by Karen
2008-05-28 11:09:38

That’s a cute house. And the most realistically priced house I’ve seen in a while.

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Comment by Jay_Huhman
2008-05-28 19:22:41

Fort Wayne is not a bad place. We visited last year when my wife had a job interview. A couple of decent high schools, a branch of Purdue, a nice library, a minor league hockey team, and the minor league ball club mentioned in the article. Even a restaurant with live jazz 3-4 nights a week.

There were many decent ranches (4BR, 2BA) in an OK part of town asking 125-150K.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-28 07:32:25

Midwest stuff:

Boy are the IAR and CAR (Illinois & Chicago) ever happy that Fannie is jettisoning the declining market designation/requirements next week. To hear them tell it - it’s all gonna take off again now.

Poor Grand Avenue mall in Milwaukee. That place has always struggled, even during Summerfest it’s not crowded. Milwaukee had a great dowtown through most of the 70s - Gimbel’s, Boston Store, etc. It always seemed packed back then - the mall never came close.

I wonder how attendance at Summerfest will be this year? Some of us FIBs might have trouble coughing up $250 a night for a hotel room. The Chicago Tribune sure did its part pimping downtown condoze to Chicagoans - a condo away from your condo.

$260k for a condo in Ft. Wayne - WTF?

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-05-28 08:09:22

‘Grand Avenue mall in Milwaukee. That place has always struggled’

And why are they building ‘high-end’ condos there. And this Detroit place used to be the tallest hotel in the world? When was that, 1929? Yeah, give me a million dollar penthouse in that.

These condos were all hatched as the housing boom exploded. Notice the Ft Wayne place hasn’t been built and down-payments were only $1,000! There’s no clearer sign of speculation than that IMO.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-28 08:22:54

On northwest the corner of 7th and Wisconsin, kitty corner from the Milwaukee Hilton, is an admittedly cool looking Art Deco office building.

When staying at the Hilton in the 1990s I marvelled at how you could see completely through this old office building to the other side. Completely abandoned, I wondered back then if one could just buy the whole thing. Now’s it has been converted to condos of course.

Downtown Milwaukee is full of such buildings - it’s like the land that time forgot on a summer morning walk. Even so, there’s huge plans there for the old Pabst bewery site, lotsa new townhomes on the river, and a bunch of stuff going up around the old freeway feeder ramp near Water.

Jobs, I’ve always wondered about the jobs. Some people actually commute to Chicago on Amtrak - but that’s hardly a solution for many.

Comment by scdave
2008-05-28 09:54:55

Here is my 2 cents on this downtown revitalization stuff…..Everywhere I have looked (Western U.S.) there is a muni policy in place to “revitalize” the downtown….From Boise to Seattle, Portland to Bend, Redding to Woodland, Oakley to Manteca, Davis to Dixon, every town large, medium and small are on this downtown redevelopment gig…Get in on the “Downtown Renaissance” is the spin of the day…It has worked quite well in some small towns around me…Willow Glen & Campbell come to mind…Real estate values have “Exploded” in these niche area’s…With the baby boomers creating the “suburban” life style with its “antiseptic” fast food, malls and all, are the boomers, generation X & Y yearning for some sense of community and is that what is driving the speculation in these downtown area’s ?? Also, all boomers likely grew up around some kind of downtown…Maybe they want to “Go Back” to their home town of Mayberry where everybody knows your name ??

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Comment by Deflationary Jane
2008-05-28 12:04:35

Actually, I think it comes down to older owners bought homes close in to the downtown because that’s all there was. These are either late silent generation or early boomer generation folks. They now want to cash out quickly as it’s time to start looking at retirement communities and what better way to get top dollar then to promote the downtown core through a hybrid of sentimentality and green urban living propaganda. All it takes is establishing a few Nimby policies and let demand feed on and reinforce itsself.

That said, I’d like to own in the downtown area but only because I don’t trust the cost of gas going forward. If my employer was located in the suburbs, then that’s where I would be looking. I care about financial stability. Sentimentality and community boosterism is only an option for the wealthy.

/signed
Gen X Curmudgeon

 
 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-05-28 10:00:45

Downtown Milwaukee is weird. Flat out weird.

There is quite literally nothing there. You couldn’t even get a beer outside the reasonable hours.

There’s a lake, and there seem to be conventions but who in their right mind would actually live there?

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Comment by rms
2008-05-28 13:13:19

“Downtown Milwaukee is weird.”

Are the winters colder than 40-degrees and longer than 6-weeks? :)

 
 
Comment by mikey
2008-05-28 10:34:40

In August, the city’s unemployment rate ranked second-to-last among 50 major U.S. cities, according to a report by the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s Center for Economic Development. The study also found that while more people are getting jobs here, it’s happening at a slower rate than in other major urban cities.

http://media.www.marquettetribune.org/media/storage/paper1130/news/2007/10/30/News/Unemployment.Rate.Slumps-3063062.shtml

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Comment by johnfromia
2008-05-28 09:06:53

That $1,000 wasn’t a downpayment — it was the price of a call option. It’s time to exercise it or let it expire worthless and it’s deep out of the money. Gee, I wonder what the option holders will do?

The thing that I still shake my head at is that there were no grownups in the finance and RE development area that foresaw a turn in the cycle. So many just put the pedal to the floor and aimed for the cliff. Granted, some feathered their own nests and didn’t care if the world blew up as long as they had theirs, but there were an awful lot of kool-aid drinkers out there. Some people would rather go broke than question their optimistic assumptions. But at least they’ve got the Feds to bail them out and keep them from learning a lesson.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-28 10:07:18

johnfromia,

Well said. Actually I was able to do a few w/ zilch down just so I’d have a little inside track on some new projects. So even coming up with the cash wasn’t a requirement for a unit to be considered “sold”. Talk about “optimistic”?

Anyway, you’re right it’s simply an option. I never looked so much for an upside mind you, just holding out hope that they would have made MAJOR price revisions prior to roll out. By late 2006 there were definitely price adjustments but evidently all I was willing to cover was the cost of the concrete?

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Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-28 09:07:16

Ha, and we’re just getting started with the downtown condo scene here in Missoula. And don’t be a grump and bother them with all the bad news about other downtown condo projects..it’s different here!

Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-28 12:35:57

I thought that the whole point of living in the “Big Sky” state was to have a big spread, a mini ranch, acreage, etc. That’s the “holy grail” in Larimer County, CO.

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Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-28 14:28:46

That’s right! People don’t come here for urban life or density. From what I see, they might buy into a new development or an old part of downtown with the tiny lots and density for a while, but the urge is to bust out of that as soon as they are able. Next thing you hear, they’re building a place out in the exurban area, boom they’re gone and the renters move in. Happened to us a few times when I had my little place in town.

 
 
 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-05-28 08:51:57

“Boy are the IAR and CAR (Illinois & Chicago) ever happy that Fannie is jettisoning the declining market designation/requirements next week. To hear them tell it - it’s all gonna take off again now.”

There were similar comments in California when the conforming loan limit was raised. Price declines have accelerated since the limit was raised. Other downward pressures on prices are too strong to be affected in any meaningful way by such measures.

 
 
Comment by Blano
2008-05-28 07:40:38

“Wes Wyatt, CEO of Cintron Beverage Group in Philadelphia who bought one of The Book’s $1 million-plus penthouses, says he too thinks the Book was too good to pass up.”

$1 million for a place overlooking downtown Detroit. Obviously I’m a crappy businessman. I just don’t get it.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-05-28 08:01:09

“$1 million for a place overlooking downtown Detroit. Obviously I’m a crappy businessman. I just don’t get it.”

It’s something I can’t really get on board with, however if I had a business downtown and could live downtown at a reasonable price (certainly not $1 million), I would consider it assuming I still lived in Michigan. Unfotunately the downtown housing that I would consider living in isn’t priced appropriately and I’m certain that I’m not the only one with that opinion.

 
Comment by Inland Empire
2008-05-28 11:22:26

There is nothing to look at in downtown Detroit.

 
 
Comment by tresho
2008-05-28 07:45:31

“‘I’m just a big fan of the city,’ added Wyatt, who has described Detroit’s downtown revival as ‘raising the Titanic.’” More like trying to convert the wreckage of the Titanic into condos en situ.

Comment by caveat_emptor
2008-05-28 09:29:32

So now instead of instant equity, buyers are instantly under-water on their loans…

 
 
Comment by gsinbe
2008-05-28 07:48:41

“‘I’m just a big fan of the city,’ added Wyatt, who has described Detroit’s downtown revival as ‘raising the Titanic.’”

A telling analogy - it’s impossible to raise the Titanic without it falling into a million pieces.

Comment by mikey
2008-05-28 10:48:25

“raising the Titanic”

Sheesh…all the Rust Belt needs…more RUST:)

Comment by mikey
2008-05-28 11:08:46

At least 5 of their major cities in Wisconsin made the Forbes list of the highest in homeowners list of debt in April 08.

Who is will be able to buy these condos and shop for high end PENS during the Xmas Recession of 2008?

Santa’s elves can hardly AFFORD the airfare to Mikwaukee and FAA doesn’t ALLOW him to take passengers :)

http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/2008/04/17/debt-homeowner-cities-forbeslife-cx_mw_0417realestate_table.html

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-05-28 07:49:49

If Downtown Detroit revives, with the whole burden of history and poverty in the rest of the city holding it back, then it’s proof the suburbs are doomed.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-05-28 07:58:37

“If Downtown Detroit revives, with the whole burden of history and poverty in the rest of the city holding it back, then it’s proof the suburbs are doomed.”

I don’t see it happening. They’ve been talking revival in the city of Detroit since the 1970’s when the Ren Cen was put up. I’d like to see it happen but corruption runs too deep.

To see suburbs that hit the skids after a city’s revival, look to Louisville, KY. The city came back and the suburbs are ghost towns.

Comment by JoJo
2008-05-28 08:41:34

Detroit’s suburbs are filled with people who left after the riots and won’t be coming back ever. I really don’t see the great renaissance of Detroit anytime soon.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-05-28 09:07:57

All those savvy investors snatching up foreclosures don’t realize how deep those memories run. Certainly that one kid from WA who is shovelling up truckloads of diamonds on the streets of Detroit doesn’t.

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Comment by fran chise
2008-05-28 10:00:34

“Detroit’s suburbs are filled with people who left after the riots and won’t be coming back ever. I really don’t see the great renaissance of Detroit anytime soon.”

I don’t see it coming back for any reason, soon or not. It is beyond repair. It is easier, cheaper and safer to just build elsewhere, anywhere. Gas could be completely unavailable (not merely $200 a gallon) and lots of jobs that moved to China would have to move back to Detroit, and even then, moving to Detroit wouldn’t be “Plan B.” It would be Plan Z.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-28 11:27:59

When I was a University of Michigan student, I noticed that very few of my SE Michigan classmates used the word “Detroit” to explain where they were from.

They were loathe to say that they lived outside of Detroit or near Detroit. Instead, they were quite adamant about saying that they were from Southfield, Birmingham, or Grosse Pointe.

For a kid who was raised outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, this was more than a little strange. I mean, Philly and the ‘Burgh had their problems, but we suburbanites weren’t about to deny their existence.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-28 07:56:01

“‘The downtown mall is right smack in the middle of what’s going on,’ Keppler said. ‘Why can’t it get a resurgence? It should get a resurgence.’”

Oh, do be quiet about your insignificant problems, you silly peasant. There are bigger injustices in the world. For instance, why am I not Queen of Candy? I should be Queen of Candy.

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-05-28 08:18:06

Come on your majesty, don’t you want a $300k condo in Milwaukee so you can shop for high end pens?

Comment by Blano
2008-05-28 09:59:55

A high end pen shop will likely go the way of those candle shops we periodically read about here.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-05-28 10:10:13

You think?!?

Tell us more, Captain Obvious!!!

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Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-28 12:38:03

Now, now, play nice. Blano was just pointing out that the pen shop is yet another addition to the HBB list of useless businesses that are soon to die.

 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-28 12:44:24

No, Blano’s short on pen shops and he’s planting propaganda towards his own nefarious financial ends…very disingenious, right, Blano? Txchick’s in on it too, I suspect… :)

 
 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-28 10:11:09

‘Come on your majesty, don’t you want a $300k condo in Milwaukee so you can shop for high end pens?’

I sure do. I need lots of high end pens, so I can do what I do with my low end pens, which is scrawl my entirely illegible scribbles that no one can read. My handwriting looks like violated linguine. With clams.
It’s even worse when I pick a gaudily colored gel-pen to write with, as I usually do.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-28 11:30:26

Your handwriting has to be more readable than mine. My cursive inspires cursing. My printing does the same.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2008-05-28 13:20:12

Nuh uh! I demand a write-off!

 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-05-28 13:54:44

The write-off will be officially judged by a group of prominant pharmacists…

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-05-28 12:39:56

A cheap pen is just as good for signing a deposit slip as a fancy pen.

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Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-05-28 08:12:21

“Bob Coffee, president of the Fort Wayne Association of Realtors, said in an interview that revitalizing downtown is critical to the health of the community.”

Pretty stale, Coffee. Whose “health”?
The average Fort Wayne citizen’s, or the developer’s?

99.99% of the towns and cities in the USA want to “revitalize” their “downtown”. Why do you think that is? Could it be, because your realtor/developer goal of continuous development and redevelopment at higher prices DOES NOT WORK ANYWHERE?
When you price people out of a market, the market disappears and the product sits on the shelf until nobody wants it at any price. And then you can give it away, maybe. And that’s you now, complaining how if you have to give it away, you don’t make money, and that’s not “healthy”.
Guess what? I think it would be REALLY HEALTHY for the Realtwhore community to be class action sued across the entire USA, all profits since 1995 disgorged plus treble damages, and national and local NAR presidents on TV, handcuffed and in orange jumpsuits. Believe me, that would have healthy effects.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-28 09:00:31

Mormon_Tea,

You know, NoSingleOne echoed a like sentiment and I have to agree, with BOTH! This is “Broken Window Economics” at it’s best. A constant and ongoing effort to have new projects all about town to “revitalize” and have a great looking facade to disguise the fact that we don’t really have an economy any more.

Even here in Portland there never really was the demand to convert all of the old warehouses and breweries to damn condos. When will we ever stop listening to “men of vision” and start worrying about content?

 
Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-28 09:15:48

We’re undertaking the same redevelopment BS here, starting with a grand Downtown Master Plan design phase. I guess they figure they’ve got to do something, even if it’s wrong.

A couple builders hereare doing a condo conversion of an old landmark hotel, the units starting at 80K, and they’re supposedly all sold out. But that at least is somewhat affordable. What I don’t get is all the new condo-loft-townhouse units at $250k and up, 5x median income. It makes no sense. So far they’re not selling, even though we keep hearing the meme that this is what young professionals and empty nesters *want*. Do they have any proof of that?

Comment by oxide
2008-05-28 10:05:16

Where are you, roughly? There IS some demand for condos for yuppies who really like the “vibrancy of the city,” but I can count those cities on my fingers. And by now, those cities have already built more condos than there is real demand for. The true bottom will be Section 8 Ramen on a Granite Countertop.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-05-28 10:19:17

It has nothing to do with “yuppies” or homos. It has more to do with DINKs.

To put it differently, it has more to do with people who differ from the conventional.

Yeah, you popped out a sprog or three. What’s the big deal? China and India seemed to have popped out a billion of those each, and your sprog ain’t so bleedin’ special, eh?

To put it differently, if you love your sprog so much, pay for it!

Anyhoo, there’s a lot of breeders and a whole buncha hoo-ey about their breedin’ and a lot of smart folks don’t wanna deal, and if they want a condo in the city to not pay for the sprog’s education, sounds A-OK by me.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-28 11:32:59

Preach it, Sell Sell! I especially agree with this part:

To put it differently, if you love your sprog so much, pay for it!

 
Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-28 14:58:05

I don’t have anything against condos downtown, but the pricing needs to make sense for MT. Three were built smack in the middle of downtown with a coffee joing and check-cashing place downstairs, and they’re just sitting there at $280k. Not even a south-facing deck, a must in the North. But then they’d have all the noise and pollution of the main drag in front too.

Some budget condos were built at the height of the boom just to the west of downtown and sold for about $100k. Those went pretty fast, though I think it’s a lot of doting parents “investing” in RE for their college kids. I think they’d still sell at that price.

 
 
Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-28 14:37:42

I’m in Missoula. I liked the city, too, when I was young. Couldn’t get enough of it. But that was San Francisco.

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Comment by exeter
2008-05-28 09:42:24

Mormon Teas vision of NAR scum doing perp walks works wonderfully. I’d even pay to see it.

Comment by DinOR
2008-05-28 10:24:21

exeter,

We just may see that yet! There is a CA congresswoman ( Laura Richardson ) that is in default on not one but THREE homes! Seems she used the old cash-out re-fi to fund her campaigns and is now delinquent on everything from her mortgages to taxes and even utilities.

She claims this gives her insight into the “pain” others are feeling. What a fraud. Check it out at:

http://www.michellemalkin.com

She’s been following this unraveling since early this month. It would comical if it wasn’t so obvious the fraud has now reached all levels?

Comment by wmbz
2008-05-28 10:54:44

This one is a real piece of work, however being an over weight black female liberal Dem will help out a lot. Having been upgraded to D.C. won’t hurt either. The MSM if anything will award her ‘victim’ status. I mean really, don’t we all ‘deserve’ 4 homes on a $169,000 salary($116,000 @ the time of purchase). Where’s the love for the down trodden?

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Comment by DinOR
2008-05-28 11:32:16

wmbz,

And are we willing to bet she’s HARDLY the only one in congress playing “musical houses”? It strikes me ( as a newbie ) she probably learned “the craft” of bilking HELOC $’s to fund campaigns and God knows what all?

It just really struck me as to how widespread the fraud is. Had she remained current on her loans none of this would have ever surfaced. It will be interesting as this develops to see what kind of loans she was using and how she got them. Anyway you slice it, that’s a LOT of debt on that kind of income?

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-28 11:38:02

I have a recently deceased friend who, at one time, lived in a Chicago condo with his wife. When they first moved in, the neighborhood was so bad that they had to pack heat to for an outdoor cookout.

During that time, my friend would ask the following question about some of their “downtrodden” neighbors:

How can they be so STUPID??

This question was inspired by their numerous instances of self-defeating behavior, all of which have been discussed at great length on this blog.

BTW, the neighborhood eventually gentrified. And this couple turned a nice profit on the sale of their condo.

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-28 11:49:55

LOL…reminds me of when an overweight white male conservative Republican (Rush Limbaugh) got caught smuggling drugs into the country and still got a pass from the MSM. He got to keep his radio show, his salary, and is still the smokesperson spokesperson for the downtrodden patriots of America.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-28 12:05:39

Quite similar to the Texas GOP frauds like Kay BeetleBailey Hutchinson pining on the senate floor for a housing bailout with a line item in the bill to save Centex from bankruptcy.

 
Comment by wmbz
2008-05-28 12:39:35

Not to worry when MMW- Marxist-Maxine Waters (D) Cali. ’socializes’ Evil Big Oil (her words not mine) there is bound to be plenty of money left over to subsidize all of you that missed out on the housing boom. All I can say is I would love to see my write in, Ron Paul get in (ain’t gonna happen) but he could at least throw a monkey wrench into the system.

On the brighter side there is one whole slew of aging Dem-o-Pubs getting ready to kick the bucket.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-05-28 14:21:53

Marxist Maxine Waters is different than Fascist Kay Hutchinson in what way?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-05-28 11:13:44

“Downtown Redevelopment” is being pushed by “downtown property owners/developers”, using taxpayer money spent by their political lackey/lapdogs.

They came up with their Downtown redevelopment plan when they found out that their old/worn-out/outdated/lead-and asbestos impregnated downtown properties were worth less than nothing. Rather than “give their property away”, they figured out a way to get their property “rehabilitated”, with the taxpayer helping to pick up the cost.

Conflicts of interest all over the place. But you will never hear about it, because the smart ones have given the local media outlets a “piece of the action”. (Re: KC, Mo.’s “Power and Light District”)

 
 
Comment by mrjauk
2008-05-28 09:20:41

“Adolfo Laurenti, senior economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, said the spring and summer are prime periods for sales activity, and even with seasonal adjustments, spring hasn’t fared well so far.”

Anybody else see what’s wrong with this statement? Are journalists not required to have at least a little bit of knowledge of the subject area that they’re “reporting” on?

The sentence in bold would have made much more sense had it been in an article written at the end of January (pre-Super Bowl, of course!).

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-28 11:17:07

Are journalists not required to have at least a little bit of knowledge of the subject area that they’re “reporting” on?

umm.. yer joking.. right?

 
Comment by tuxedo_junction
2008-05-28 11:41:18

Your typical journalist simply edits or copies press releases. It takes little time and even less knowledge. Such journalism is very desirable to media companies as it is cheap. The lower the budget for news content, the greater the potential profit. The same applies, but to a lesser extent, to features content.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-05-28 09:32:47

Sink the Bismarck.

 
Comment by joe momma
2008-05-28 09:44:12

Dow Chemical Co. will raise its prices by up to 20 percent almost immediately to offset the soaring cost of energy, and the CEO of the chemical giant lashed out at Washington on Wednesday for failing to develop a sound energy policy.

Dow supplies a broad swath of industries, from agriculture to health care, and any sizable price jump would likely affect almost all of them.

No inflation here. Oh, and let’s be perfectly clear. 8 years of reckless GOP rule is coming to a crashing end. Even the people in charge of Dow Chemical understand this. So…unless you have a DEATH WISH, I suggest you might consider voting for another party in November. You’ve seen what 8 years under the GOP can do to this country. Vote accordingly.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-28 10:50:36

Dow Chem raising prices.. that really sucks..
Which party should we vote for that will insure that businesses will no longer be able to raise prices? The Communist Party?

Comment by joe momma
2008-05-28 11:13:42

Try the one that doesn’t lie us into a multi-trillion dollar war, crashing our currency and causing everything to skyrocket in price.

Hint: It ain’t the Republican Party.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-28 11:30:17

The one? Which is The One?

World War 1 .. Wilson (D)
World War 2 .. Roosevelt (D)
Korean War .. Truman (D)
Vietnam War .. Kennedy? Johnson? (D)

I wonder if I could trace historical periods of high inflation and various economic disasters.. and pin them on Dem administrations.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-05-28 11:43:03

US involvement in Vietnam started during the 1950s. When Truman was president. And, yes, he was a Democrat. Of the Cold Warrior variety.

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-28 11:59:19

By the same token, Reagan funded the Taliban Mujahadeen in Afghanistan and Sadaam Hussein in Iraq, building up their arsenals and military, but somehow everyone seems to forget that.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-28 12:16:50

I read something kinda suprising back when John Forbes Kerry was running against George Walker Bush.
One of their grandmothers was got married. The other’s grandmother was her maid of honor. (!?!)
Actually, the families are more than just friends.. they’ve shared beds.

Through his maternal grandmother, Margaret Tyndal Winthrop, John Kerry is distantly related to four U.S. Presidents, including George W. Bush..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kerry

To claim that some particular flavor of political party is a solution to any of our problems borders on delusional (or is simply agenda driven) imho.
And, to be consistant, i don’t blame politicians for our problems. Who is to blame and who is the solution? We are.

 
Comment by joe momma
2008-05-28 13:44:36

“I wonder if I could trace historical periods of high inflation and various economic disasters.. and pin them on Dem administrations.”

You can’t. You can’t pin the deficit on Dems either. But you can watch Fox News all day long, and listen to Flush Limpdick. And you can buy the man chick Anne Culter’s books. Yep, you can do all of that.

I guess things aren’t bad enough for you Joey. But never fear, vote McCain in and see how bad it can get.

 
Comment by NotInMontana
2008-05-28 14:49:35

“US involvement in Vietnam started during the 1950s. When Truman was president. And, yes, he was a Democrat.”

We didn’t get involved until afterthe capitulation of the French at Diem Bien Phu, in 1954. Even then it was a pretty attenuated involvement because Eisenhower was pretty wary of the whole thing.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-28 14:50:32

man chick Anne Culter..

hehe.. That’s supposed to be a slur??

I imagine her response would be that you are exhibiting typical dem-liberal intolerance of and hypocrisy towards women and transgenders.. (and you’re a lazy speller)

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-05-28 15:05:06

you can buy the man chick Anne Culter’s books.

LMAO!

So I’m not the only one who’s noticed her adam’s apple, lack of curves and mustache stubble?

I found it very ironic when she called John Edwards a f*ggot, considering that she is one of the least feminine women I have ever seen.

She’s also a complete tool…

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-28 15:19:12

..she is one of the least feminine women I have ever seen..

Ahh.. another warning to women everywhere. Toe the liberal line, or else.

 
 
 
Comment by measton
2008-05-28 11:55:32

How about a party that unlike Dick Cheney believes deficits matter. Big deficit = Big inflation.

How about a party that doesn’t turn over our national energy policy to the energy companies behind closed doors. Then goes to court to prevent the people from knowing who crafted our energy plan.

How about an energy policy that decreases our addiction to oil. There is no way the US can produce enough to get us out of this hole, we need massive conservation.

Having our president go to Saudi Arabia and beg hasn’t helped either.

Comment by denquiry
2008-05-28 15:30:37

deficits don’t matter to dicky heartless because he’s got his pig face in the public trough.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2008-05-28 10:50:43

230 years later and we still scream “Down with King George!”

 
 
Comment by joe momma
2008-05-28 11:31:18

WASHINGTON - Former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan writes in a new memoir that President Bush relied on an aggressive “political propaganda campaign” instead of the truth to sell the Iraq war, and that the decision to invade pushed Bush’s presidency “terribly off course.’

Scott can count on being a witness at the War Crimes Tribunal.

Comment by Deflationary Jane
2008-05-28 12:25:12

I honestly believe that Bush knows what’s coming. This is why he bought that ranch in Paraugy. I’m sure he also secured a no extradition agreement too. My dearest wish, even dearer then my wish for an affordable house, is to see him on trial at the Hague.

Comment by joe momma
2008-05-28 13:38:21

I am with you, man. I would love to see that asshole and all his buddies on trial at the Hague. I am praying for it. It would be a international holiday. I think the plan was to make sure the Supreme Court can cover their asses anyway possible, and as insurance make sure that McCain gets elected/appointed. Far too many crimes to allow a Democratic admin to see behind the curtain.

 
Comment by denquiry
2008-05-28 15:34:14

gwb might have a ranch compound in paraguay but we’ve got “rambo.”

 
 
 
Comment by Ria Rhodes
2008-05-28 11:49:38

joeyinCalif:

“Which party should we vote for that will insure that businesses will no longer be able to raise prices?”

Government dictating what private businesses charge for goods and services? God forbid.

Comment by exeter
2008-05-28 16:40:52

Exactly Ria. What a tool. Here’s a doozy;

“And, to be consistant, i don’t blame politicians for our problems.”

Can you detect the standard but insidious cynicism? The cynicism that wants you to abandon any expectation of your government? That government isn’t expected to take a leadership role? Don’t buy into it and be sure to call out that cynicism regardless of ideology.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-05-28 20:12:53

heh.. government.. leadership. We’ve become a nation of irresponsible slaves who want to be fed and diapered.
But the best part is it’s not our fault.. because we’re victims!

 
 
 
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