What Many Thought Impossible Has Happened
The Seattle PI reports from Washington. “Seattle-area house values continued their record-setting slide in March. Values in the area in March were down 4.4 percent from March 2007, according to the Standard & Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, whose Seattle numbers go back to January 1990. It was the third consecutive annual decrease for the area and the second straight record decline for the Seattle index, which goes back to the start of 1990.”
“Prices have declined month to month for eight straight months now. King County’s median house price was $448,500 in April, down 3.5 percent from April 2007 and 6.8 percent from the record high of $477,345 in August, according to the Northwest MLS.”
The New York Times on Washington. “Sales and prices are still robust in Seattle and affluent suburbs like Bellevue because they are more desirable and closer to big employers.”
“‘We are still getting multiple offers on properties there,’ Phil Rodocker, a Seattle-based real estate agent, said about the downtown area and Bellevue. But ‘as you move south, every 10 miles south you go, you see more and more short sales and repossessed houses.’”
“Builders are having trouble selling units in some newer condominium buildings. Mr. Rodocker got an e-mail message from one developer last week who a few months ago had quickly sold 251 units in a project under construction. Now, investors who had signed contracts to buy 40 of those units had reneged.”
“The units in the Belltown section of Seattle are now being resold for as little as $225,950 for a one-bedroom apartment with one bathroom, prices that Mr. Rodocker said were so low as to be ‘ridiculous.’ Last fall, one-bedroom condos in the neighborhood were selling for $260,000 to $290,000, he said.”
“About 35 miles south, outside Tacoma, Irené Foster-Worthy and her husband have received no offers on their three-bedroom, two-bath ranch home since they put it on the market a month ago.”
“‘Only about four people have come to see it, which makes it difficult to sell,’ she said.”
“One of Mr. Rodocker’s clients, Dennis Humphrey, lives south of Seattle in Tukwila and has been looking to buy a home with three or four bedrooms and one or two bathrooms. Parents of 10-year-old twin boys, Mr. Humphrey and his wife live in a rental home and want a bigger place.”
“Mr. Humphrey has made offers on two homes, but the sellers have refused to negotiate. He is willing to spend up to $300,000 and has enough money to put 20 percent down, but Mr. Humphrey said he was worried prices were going to fall farther and could wipe out any money he puts into a home.”
“‘I am not afraid of the monthly mortgage payment, and I am not afraid of taxes, but I am afraid of losing the value I am putting in,’ he said. ‘I believe the right deal will come along, and I am in no rush,’ He added.”
The Daily Interlake from Montana. “Montana Department of Revenue were in Kalispell on Monday, gathering information on real estate market trends for a statewide property reappraisal.”
“Department Director Dan Bucks and several staffers heard from about two dozen local bankers, appraisers and Realtors as part of an unusual effort to bring the state’s property valuations in line with volatile market trends.”
“Bucks said the effort is aimed at determining whether national housing market turmoil is affecting Montana when the state is nearing the end of a six-year reappraisal cycle.”
“‘The Department of Revenue has never done this before,’ Bucks said, explaining a five-point plan for producing reappraisals that accurately reflect current market conditions.”
“The Flathead Valley real estate experts at Monday’s meeting confirmed that local market conditions have indeed been dynamic in recent months. The group came to a consensus that the market has been in a decline, particularly for high-end housing properties.”
“Realtors reported instances of homes selling for prices below their original listing prices. One Realtor cited the example of a house selling for $265,000 in 2007. But this year, two houses with the same floor plans, in the same subdivision, sold for $250,000 and $251,000.”
“Veteran appraiser Jim Kelley reported that the Flathead Valley’s residential sales volume is down 27 percent this year compared to the first five months of last year.”
“‘The basic message is we’re seeing a decline in the real estate market,’ said Rep. Jon Sonju, who sits on the Legislature’s interim revenue committee.”
The Vancouver Sun from Canada. “For decades, generations even, rural Saskatchewan has been emptying out. Most towns had scads of homes for sale with very few buyers. Bargain basement prices prevailed.”
“The past couple years what many thought impossible has happened. In a lot of small and large towns, you can hardly find a house to buy and if you do, the price has increased dramatically. Older houses that no one wanted a few years ago are being gobbled up and renovated. Even houses in old farmyards are in demand.”
“I’m most familiar with communities on the western side of the province, but colleague Lorne McClinton says the same thing is happening in his region in south eastern Saskatchewan. He says two years ago, his community of Yellow Grass was slowly dying.”
“One year ago, McClinton says you could buy a 50-foot lot for $50 and a 100-foot lot for $100. No one wanted them. Now the town has bumped the price to $5,000 for a 50-foot lot and $10,000 for a 100-foot lot. Most have sold and the town office gets several calls a day.”
“Two or three years ago, for a two-bedroom home with single-car garage built in the mid-70s, you would be lucky to get $40,000, says McClinton. Now, he estimates it’s worth at least $125,000.”
“‘It is quite different to feel a sense of real optimism and growth,’ says McClinton. ‘Friends and I were discussing how different the conversations are now than they were just a year or so ago. Last year we were wondering if the school would close. This year we are building new subdivisions. People are quite excited.’”
“Perhaps even more promising, says McClinton, is that people from outside the community have come in to purchase the store and a bunch of commercial property along the highway. Their feeling is that with the incredible amount of drilling and development of the Bakken oil field east of Weyburn that the town is going to have a boom not seen since the region was initially settled 100 plus years ago.”
The Leader Post from Canada. “The average price of a home in Saskatoon was more than $306,000 in April, an increase an RBC economist says is not a sustainable trend in the province.”
“In March, the average home price reached $289,440 and jumped to $306,268 in April, 39 per cent higher than April 2007, the Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.”
“The number of homes sold this year is on par with last year, at 1,480, but in the month of April the number of sales dropped 12 per cent to 418 from 476 at the same time in 2007.”
“The decrease is a reflection of a larger inventory of homes, said SRAR executive officer Harry Janzen, who isn’t surprised by another price increase. ‘Because demand dictates price, we knew that we would have an increase, we just didn’t know to what degree,’ he said.”
“This is the first time the average selling price of a home in the city has topped $300,000, a price nearly double that of the April 2006 average of $155,000.”
“Amy Goldbloom, an economist with RBC Economics, believes such increases can’t be sustained because provincial wage growth lags behind the pace of home price increases.”
“During the next year, Goldbloom expects market activity in Saskatchewan to mimic what’s now happening in Alberta. Overvaluation in that market has made it impossible for potential homeowners to buy, leading to more moderate price gains.”
“‘We think more moderation is ahead for Saskatchewan, similar to what is going on in Calgary and Edmonton,’ she said. ‘We’re not looking for any sort of U.S. style correction, but we are looking for those markets that have heated up the quickest to have the most downside in terms of slower prices ahead.’”
“‘We just think housing markets have overshot their true value and they’re going to find a happier cruising speed to maintain that,’ she said.”
“Janzen, however, feels the current market in Saskatoon and the rest of the province is sustainable given a consistent influx of workers and steady wage increases. ‘The buying frenzy, as I refer to it, that we had last spring is a lot more balanced this spring, and that signals that the market is still very, very strong,’ he said.”
“Home prices in Saskatoon, he added, remain some of the most affordable in the country when compared to bigger cities such as Edmonton, where in April the average home sold for $386,000, and Calgary, where the average home sold last month for $474,000.”
“‘We’re really just coming into our own as it pertains to the exploitation of our resource base, every industry is growing,’ he said. ‘We recently had a meeting of our real estate boards from around the province … and activity is happening in literally every area of the province.’”
The News Miner from Alaska. “The Greater Fairbanks Board of Realtors reported Tuesday that one-quarter fewer homes sold around Fairbanks during the first three months of 2008 than the same stretch last year.”
“Real estate agents this winter said Fairbanks was cooling off from an overheated market but has largely missed a housing slump seen around the United States.”
“‘We currently have a 10-month supply of homes on the market,’ said Amy Krier, president of the Realtors board in Fairbanks. ‘(That’s) actually pretty balanced.’”
“James Wiedle, an analyst with the Alaska Housing Finance Corp., said rising home utility costs have likely thrown a wrench into the affordability of Fairbanks’ housing market, particularly for homeowners who live on a tight budget.”
“‘When you consider that a lot of people are kind of on the cusp with home mortgage payments, it could push them into a situation where they can’t afford to make their payment,’ Wiedle said.”
“The average of 154 homes reported sold around Fairbanks from January through March went for $218,407, according to the board. That was a 2 percent drop from last year’s first quarter average sale price but above the average of $204,334 for the first part of 2006.”
“The figure of 154 homes sold fell short of matching a surge seen in the first quarter of last year, when 206 homes were reported sold. The average reported selling price for one-bedroom homes rose by more than one-fifth from the first quarter of last year, while the average prices for two- and three-bedroom homes fell.”
“Tuesday’s numbers for Fairbanks show there are more homes on the market right now than in recent years - a 74 percent increase in inventory from early 2006 - and Krier said sellers are less likely to find multiple potential buyers ‘fighting’ for a home when it hits the marketplace.”
A nearly identical article to one above had these in the comments:
‘Tim Quote: “Home prices in Saskatoon, he added, remain some of the most affordable in the country when compared to bigger cities such as Edmonton, where in April the average home sold for $386,000, and Calgary where the average home sold last month for $474,000.”
‘When I see my wage come anywhere CLOSE to those in Alberta, then I will have no problem forking over more money to put a roof over my head. But until then, realtors and investors wanting to make a few quick bucks by flipping real estate, need to stop telling the average Saskatoonian to “Shut up and take it”. It sickens me that these people do not have the presence of mind to realize that average people in this city can not afford these kinds of prices! Wake up and realize what you’re doing to this province before it’s too late!’
”Zippy ‘There are well over 1300 listings on MLS as of today. Many have been sitting unsold for months. The bubble has popped, kids. Speculators and inverstors, sell as quickly as you can dial a phone.’
The Saskatchewan articles still crack me up. I’ve always loved the West, and although I’m likely never to leave the Despotism of Daley, I can see paying a slight premium to be in the mountains or coast somewhere.
But holy crow, who, WHO? would be paying 306K to live in Saskatoon?
I swear to God, I sometimes feel like there’s about 100,000 sane people left in the world. That may be an overestimate.
Ben, since when did this blog get to 100,000? Wow!
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/5-new-rules-for-home-buyers.html
This has got to be the most asinine, fluff ‘analysis’ on real estate to date. No mention of prices being to high, lack of affordability, probability of losing a lot of money, etc. Is this “reporter” a realtor in disguise?
But holy crow, who, WHO? would be paying 306K to live in Saskatoon?
You can buy a house in Greeley for about half that much, and the winters are a lot warmer in Greeley.
There’s no oil bubble in Greeley.
sorry, there isn’t a Granite bubble quite yet. Maybe next one will be coarse materials?
Chuck
Saskatchewan is a potash (fertilizer) and grains bubble (with a splash of oil/gas).
Sure, but its only a 30 minute drive from Denver.
Faster if you can hitch a ride with a twister.
There was a big jobs boom there a few years ago, and Saskatoon attracted a lot of artsy folks who couldn’t afford to live elsewhere in Canada. I wouldn’t talk it down until you’ve been there.
True to form, the yuppies followed them and bid up the prices a few years later. However, Saskatoon is the most livable city on the Prairie, IMO…at least compared to the polluted overpriced sprawl of Edmonton and Calgary. I’ve never been to Winnipeg so can’t say for sure how they compare.
Well, I hear ya, and I’ll do my best to get up there someday, but any place that has a average high temp of 9 in January is gonna have to be somewhere pretty special.
That’s nine, amigos.
My main point is that the average house price being 309K is insane, especially in siberia.
Well, I hear ya, and I’ll do my best to get up there someday, but any place that has a average high temp of 9 in January is gonna have to be somewhere pretty special.
That’s nine, amigos.
C’mon now, that ain’t the spirit that keeps you alive during the Chicago winters. That’s how Atlantans (Atlantites? Atlantonians?) talk about our fair city.
Surely a couple of fewer degrees can’t hurt that much …?
ET,
Don’t forget that the runup in real estate was at its worst in the warmer states. They aren’t making any more land there, so clearly paying the Sunshine Tax is better than throwing on a jacket and scraping a little ice off of your windshield now and then.
“and Saskatoon attracted a lot of artsy folks who couldn’t afford to live elsewhere in Canada. ”
I don’t think that will really save Saskatoon. Every major city in the US has an artsy/bohemian neighborhood, and some of these experienced some of the more insane run-ups in value during the height of the bubble. Look at downtown LA (especially South Park and Skid Row neighborhoods): million dollar condos surrounded by one of the largest homeless encampments in the US, all because supposedly avante-garde artists had moved into the area. What exact economic benefits are these artsy/bohemian people supposed to bring to a city or neighborhood? Do they bring jobs (other than filling their Starbucks cups)? How many non-academics even follow or care about modern, urban avante-garde “art”? It seems to me that the value of these artists lies completely in the ability to use them as a real-estate selling point.
Steve W — according to the Saskaboomers, EVERYONE wants to live in Saskatoon. Who wouldn’t love minus 40 winters? Not to mention snowfalls in May, frost in August and dust everywhere, all year ’round. The river is pretty, but the boom is AWOL, as far as I can see.
The prices are new: they doubled in 2007, mostly because of speculators from Alberta trying to duplicate the bubble of Calgary & Edmonton. In Jan 2006 the average house price was 150,000. In Jan 2007 it was 180,000, and in Jan of this year it was 300,000 +.
But now Calgary and Edmonton, the sources of the speculator money, are obviously correcting: 35,000 unmoving listings between the two of them, foreclosures, ‘incentives’ and Jenga-like stacks of For Sale signs outside condo towers. Saskatoon’s MLS inventory is now at 1200 properties (twice the norm) and growing by about 100 a week. And half are non-owner occupied, with a quarter being vacant.
I’m quite looking forward to the next 18 months.
I grew up north of Saskatoon, and spent a lot of time there. The main ‘asset’ of the area is land - lots and lots of space. Absolutely NO shortage of room to grow. So, as soon as building catches up to demand….well, you know the rest…
Oh, and as to ‘who would pay 306K to live in Saskatoon?
Apparently this owner thinks that someone will pay 1,699,000 to live in Saskatoon
Monstrosity
“‘We currently have a 10-month supply of homes on the market,’ said Amy Krier, president of the Realtors board in Fairbanks. ‘(That’s) actually pretty balanced.’”
If you had any other business with a 10 month inventory you’d be thinking about a liquidation sale to save your ass.
My aunt and uncle just finished building a big luxury home about an hour from Fairbanks on some lake. They paid a lot for it. Before they started it about a year ago, I talked to them a long time about the bubble - they’re wonderful people and I really didn’t want them to get stuck. They tore down an old cabin and built in its place, but to me, the cabin was cool (have only seen photos).
An hour out of town and I bet gas way up north is very very expensive (anyone know how much?). Fortunately, they own it outright, but they’ll take a bath if they ever want to sell it. My uncle was pretty convinced prices would only go up, he pretty much reacted to my advice like I’d been smoking sagebrush.
Gas in rural Alaska is 6 dollars and up, but it has always been more expensive because of the cost to transport it from Anchorage and southcentral Alaska (where most of the refineries are located).
Your uncle is wrong about the direction of housing prices in Alaska though. I’ve been looking at rural property in Alaska on Craigslist for awhile and “well priced property” just sits there, presumably with no offers. Construction, energy, and transportation costs to and from these properties is going through the roof. However, there are some people in the oil industry who have gotten a windfall and are buying the most desirable stuff.
For a well priced property, there are some good deals because the property taxes are essentially zero outside of the Anchorage metro, Fairbanks and Juneau.
Mighty google:
Alaskagasprices.com says prices vary from $3.94 to over $4.15 depending on location. Average by 48-state standards, but considering the notoriously high cost of living, sounds cheap. Isn’t Fairbanks where the pipline ends…if they refine the oil there, it might be cheaper… (?)
No, the pipeline goes down to Valdez, I believe. Don’t know if they refine there or not.
Fairbanks has 2 refineries, Valdez has one. Gas prices in rural towns in Alaska are much higher than the range noted in alaskagasprices.com because there are frequently no roads into them, so gas has to be flown or boated in.
I have a cousin who does something there at the refinery in Valdez. Lots of relatives in the oil biz in Alaska, they all think Alaska RE will never crash.
“they all think Alaska RE will never crash”
I know and it drives me insane. I should start my own blog up here. It is so hard to get information about this. We had a RE runup later than the rest of the country, but yet the RE agents and brokers claim that there was very little subprime lending and a lot of “closet millionaires”. When I ask about option ARMs and HELOCs, I usually get a dumb stare.
Laws Against Buying Oil - Gold & Silver?
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2008/0528.html
“I bet gas way up north is very very expensive (anyone know how much?”
Only 45 cents in Saudi Arabia…good thing the King and his family has the US of A’s Cheney-Shrub coalition defending his fledgling Islamic demockracy.
‘Big luxury home’ and ‘an hour from Fairbanks’: in my mind, that does not seem to go together, after paying a visit to the area some 20 years back. We were in a cabin with a wood stove, and it was great. We sprayed repellent all over our clothes for the midnight walk, to protect from the AL state bird (the mosquito). It was, then, quite a bit of a frontier feeling still, and it included bringing a rifle on that walk. Neighbors talking about encounters with bear and lynx, and a huge mother moose blocking the dirt road. “Luxury “???? What an oxymoron.
You know, if you saw this house, you’d think luxury, and also the neighbors. That branch of my family moved to Alaska in the late 50s with the oil discoveries and have done pretty well for themselves. They also have a place in the Brooks Range that has windows the grizzlies can’t get into, they actually see them around the house at times, have to fly in by bush plane. I also have a cousin who’s an archaeologist up there and he can tell stories. But I suspect Alaska’s changed a lot in 20 years, if the rest of the world’s any indication.
BTW, you sure get around, Sagesse!
I’ve been under the impression that a balanced market had 3-6 months of inventory; that’s why appraisers typically use 120 days as a normal selling time. It’s also why listing agreements are typically 120 days. Before the bubble and subsequent bust I believe that most RE agents said that over 6 months of inventory indicates static or falling prices, while under 3 months of inventory indicates rapidly rising prices.
The relationship of inventory to price changes of residential units would make an interesting PhD dissertation. A mathematically inclined type can even have fun with lots of ODEs and PDEs.
–
Since the Credit Crisis began the Case-Shiller for Seattle has been going down at 13.5% Annual Rate. Radar Logic for March is going down at -17.2% Annual Rate for Seattle metro. YoY numbers for few areas aren’t bad yet but in June-July we will see double-digit declines in most areas (excepting those where prices didn’t go much during the bubble).
Jas
Median prices are STILL way too high in Seattle. Those people need some relief. $448,500? Does the median-priced home there look like a castle? It should…
I’m advocating a TOTAL Buyer’s Strike there! The only “RE” purchase they should be considering is a “KOA” membership!
No strike is necessary. All we need is to (1) only purchase when purchasing makes sense on an equivalent rent basis; and (2) buy what you can afford.
Heck, even if the general population only followed the second directive, the market will collapse.
Eventually the lenders will begin to enforce (2).
“The units in the Belltown section of Seattle are now being resold for as little as $225,950 for a one-bedroom apartment with one bathroom, prices that Mr. Rodocker said were so
lowhigh as to be ‘ridiculous.’”That’s better.
You said what I said, but SO much more concisely.
Actually, most of the newer units are from $350 to $600K for 1 and 2 bedrooms. I have been watching it with alerts from redfin. Price drops are happening at $10k at a time on the 2 bdrm … so end-2009 when we become more serious
“‘We are still getting multiple offers on properties there,’ Phil Rodocker, a Seattle-based real estate agent, said about the downtown area and Bellevue. But ‘as you move south, every 10 miles south you go, you see more and more short sales and repossessed houses.’”
Yet another example of a metro area where the housing bubble and bust first hid and now are revealing a shift in relative values. Looks like the exurbs are the losers.
If the troubled, non-working population, with its higher public cost and lower tax contribution, ends up heading for the cheap housing, that can be self-reinforcing. Expect a lot of conflict on that issue over the next 10 years.
Expect the “Battle of Seattle” in 2017 or so… Where’s Snake Pliskin when you need him?
“The units in the Belltown section of Seattle are now being resold for as little as $225,950 for a one-bedroom apartment with one bathroom, prices that Mr. Rodocker said were so low as to be ‘ridiculous.’
No, “ridiculous” is the $50K that I’ll offer you for that unit in about 2 years. And that might be generous. Maybe I’ll start at $30K so I can negotiate up a bit.
We’re a LONG LONG way from ridiculously low prices in Seattle.
OT–
The graybeards who run the muncipality of Santa Barbara, and the condo developers who love them, have the middle class [sic] queuing up to draw lottery cards for affordable [sic] downtown condos, which come with a 45-year covenant not to sell at an unaffordable price. (In some respects, the city becomes the condo owner’s de facto landlord.) It’s the sexy new urbanism. Currently on exhibit at the Santa Barbara Housing Bubble Blog: luxe meets bohemia on the near-westside, and they go shopping together at Saks.
Thanks for reading,
Saint Barbara
It looks like a prison, except not as nice……
Wow to think that Uncle Reagan lived there, in that socialist paradise…
Reagan lived near Santa Barbara, not in it.
OK the city caps the resale price but does it provide a floor under which the city subsidizes you? It doesn’t seem fair to limit gain but leave the buyer open to a loss.
“Department Director Dan Bucks and several staffers heard from about two dozen local bankers, appraisers and Realtors as part of an unusual effort to bring the state’s property valuations in line with volatile market trends.”
Bucks is the one who decreed that Montana is no longer a non-disclosure state, using administrative rules instead of getting the legislature to do it. It’s kinda hilarious, guess he knew he’d never get it by the Realtors the regular way LOL. But at least now if I want to protest the reappraisal I can get the real comps.
Montana is following the same path as the rest. Next up, Wyoming.
Please say Utah’s on the list, although probably not, as the PTB here are all in bed with the RE agents (figuratively speaking, of course, this being the State of Saints - well, unless they’re discretely trysting behind the Zion Curtain).
Alaska is also a non-disclosure state. I’m glad I’m not the only one who thinks that the whole idea is retarded.
..an unusual effort to bring the state’s property valuations in line with volatile market trends..
I woulda thought used house salespeople would rather starve to death than be honest about prices. Either I am wrong or they are starving..
I spoke with one of the property assessment experts at the MT Dept of Revenue last week and found out that, although prices are now written on realty transfer certificates, the certificates are not public information.
Here’s the relevant part of the MT Code: “The legislature finds that the demands of individual privacy outweigh the merits of public disclosure.” http://law.justia.com/montana/codes/15/15-7-308.html
According to this person, in the last 10 years, there have been some court cases challenging law, but the court has always upheld the Code. So, for prices to become public, the MT legislature would have to change the Code.
Hopefully the housing crash will help them see the public benefit in price disclosure. Until then, people can say all they want about us living in a free market, but it just ain’t true.
The Belltown Seattle condos at issue were famous when pre-”sold” a couple of years ago because entry-level buyers raced to sign contracts on $200K-plus, 500-square-foot studios to be built of plywood and glue. Now that they’re almost built they’re noticing they won’t be flippable after all, that the little dog park kitty-corner really does have a lot lot lot of dealers and users trafficking openly all the time, and that a lot of nearby retail spaces seem perma-vacant.
Other than the plywood and glue you could be describing Portland? Well they do say all manias start with legitimate fundamentals? I’m still waiting to see older lofts abandoned as tax moratoriums expire?
“Do you still want to live Downtown but find your “kiss me” tax deal is about to run out!? Move to____ and start the clock anew!”
I love hanging out at my friends overpriced condo in belltown and throwing popcorn seeds out the window at the junkies shooting up. Its a procession line of junkies at this spot on a main street with ok cover and a lookout posted.
“Dealers”:
My overall funiest exchange ever with my mother was when my Eastern Washington (state) parents were visiting me in Seattle. (This was back in the years B.C. - Before cell phones)
We walked through Pioneer Square to the ferry and took our voyage. When we walked back through Pioneer Square several hours later, my mother pointed out that the same three guys were still on the bank of phone booths. “They must have a lot of friends,” she suggested. Uh, no Ma. This is the big city. “OOOH,” she says.
“perma-vacant” Good One!
Reminds me of those tracts out the 15 toward the high desert, and most of the new condo towers in Las Vegas.
Oh you mean through Barstow etc? Yeah, “perma-vacant” works for me along with “see-through” and Dark Towers of Financial Doom?
I don’t know WHAT they’re going to do with all the condos/lofts on The Strip? What are locals guessing? They just become really big hotel rooms? I still see ads on Craigslist etc. but to my understanding, very few if any are selling. Dumb idea.
Does anyone know how the sales are going at the Gallery complex (2nd and broad?)?
More complete bullshit from our totally worthless and corrupt media.
5 new rules for home buyers
(Money Magazine) — There’s no telling how long the housing crisis will drag on. Here’s what you need to know before you start shopping in a rocky market.
Rule 1: You can’t time the bottom
Face it: The house you buy today will more than likely be worth less next year. That could get you thinking about trying to time the bottom.
Rule 2: One reason to buy now - mortgage rates
Homes are plentiful and will remain so, but financing will be getting more expensive.
You getting the picture? It’s a good time to buy is ALWAYS the message. I’m totally shocked, seeing that the real estate industry paid for these 5 “rules”. I hope they got their money’s worth.
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/5-new-rules-for-home-buyers.html
Agreed, that is completely revolting… still need to keep the “buy now or else” scare tactics going at all costs. Sickeningly sickening.
“this is the best buyers have had it in two decades, with inventories up and mortgage rates low.”
When did the NAR buy Money Magazine? I mean, flat out, as opposed to ad placement?
Kick back and relax and learn to love the NAR.
The NAR folks are our friends.
Why the rush?
I know we have gone on and on and on, but come on.
Everytime I get the itch for something I like I run down the mental checklist I have. My wife and I have already been homedebtors once. Why the rush to get back in?
Sheeple act like there are no more homes left in this country for ANYONE!
Good grief. Take a deep breath, count to ten, and ask yourself WHY YOU CAN’T WAIT ANOTHER 2-5 YEARS before making the largest investment 98% of the world’s population will ever make, if they EVEN make it or could afford to make it (no condescension intended at those that can’t afford it, just making the point).
I just don’t get it with people. They act like 150-200-500K is just pocket change to be used on a whime because dad wants a man cave or mom wants a nest. Crikey, I really want a ‘67/’68 vette or a ‘52 topps Mantle. Doesn’t mean I am going to rush out and buy one or the other, esp. w/io, 110% financing!
Loansters still dependant on their in-house appraisal number hitters.
The corruption reaches all the way to the top.
http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2008/05/28/regulator_opposes_appraisal_pact
Totally OT, but… oh well, not AZ thread today.
Adding to Joe Mamma’s comments…
AZ Republic ran yesterdays story on Case-Shiller showing prices off 14% YoY nationally. I pulled the PHX numbers to show we are off 20% yoy, 25% from peak, and only about half-way through the correction… Of course, a few “you’re an idiot” posts and a lot of “yep, long way to go.” posts.
Well, today this is posted.
“okay, reading all of your comments makes me think. Me and my husband are low income family of 4 and we are looking to buy a house because we have been spending so much money on renting a house thats not are own. With everybody been so negative is it the right thing to do if you are a 1st time homebuyer? Should I wait?”
My response:
These are the kinds of decisions that only you can make, knowing your specific circumstances.
You say, “spending so much money on renting”. Well, when you are paying interest to a bank, you are “renting” the money. So, unless you pay cash, you are still renting.. just money instead of a house.
Of course, the main difference is that when you are renting money and “own” the house, you get the appreciation of the house. But, few think of the downside. You also get the depreciation if that happens… which it is right now.
My advice would be,
1) Don’t beleive anythign a Realtor is telling you, without first verifying it. Realtors are salesmen. They make comissions when deals close, so many will say or do pretty much whatever it takes to complete a deal. Until you can prove otherwise, assume your Realtor is no more trust worthy than a used car salesman. Ditto the loan originator. Shop around. Go direct to banks. Once you have a place, (way later down) check with a couple different brokers and get them bidding against each other on rates and fees. Make sure you get good faith estimates, in writing!
2) Look at what you are paying for rent, and compare that to cost of owning at various price points. Don’t forget interest, principal, tax, insurance, repairs, HOA/Condo Assoication fees if applicable, etc. Have a SOLID idea of what you can afford to pay for a house that will keep your costs about the same.
3) When you are looking, DO NOT get emotionally attached to a house before it is yours. See someting you love… okay, but do NOT begin to think of it as “your” house.
4) If you are thinking of buying a specific house, go to somethign like zillow.
(link to zillow)
Put in the address and see what the place was worth in 2001-2002. Don’t pay more than AT MOST 20% above that price. My belief is that this 2001-2002+20% price is about what you’d have to pay in order to get somethign as nice as you are now renting, for about the same price that you are now renting for.
Do some searches to find how many are for sale around the house you are thinking about buying. How long have they been on the market.
Look at transaction that occured 1+ years ago.
(local newspaper’s searchable DB of recent transactions)
Look on the street and on the streets next to the house you are interest in. This site will give you the names of the buyers.
You can then use that name info here:
(county recorder search page)
The county recorder will show what they owe, if they refi-ed, if they are in default “N/TR SALE” (a foreclsoure auction has been scheduled) or “TRST DEED” usually means it is been foreclosed on. These documents will give you an APN (Parcel Number) that you can use here:
(county assessor search page)
Or, there you can use street and number, to get a name, to use at the recorder site to get info.
Find out how much people owe, if they are likely going to be in trouble, or if they already are in trouble. This will tell you if prices are likely to get smashed very hard by foreclsoures in the near future.
Make sure you check where the schools are and find out which are good schools and which are gang infested.
This is likely one of the largest and most import purchases you will ever make. Be sure to do your homework. And if all that takes time, and prices just happen to continue falling at 3-4% a month, as they now are… all the better.
Don’t let anyone scare you…
Buy now before prices start going up again… With the number of foreclosures hitting the market, the odds of prices going up are about the same as winning lotto is you never play (not gonna happen).
Buy before rates go up. If rates go up, then prices will just fall all that much more. Prices HAVE to be affordable. Lots of houses, few buyers. Prices are coming down, and will keep doing so until people can afford to buy. If rates do go up, then that just means prices have further to fall before people can buy. In fact, in the long run, you will come out ahead by buying when prices are low and interest rates are high. If rates then go down, you can refi and lower your payment. If you buy when prices are high and rates low, you are stuck should rates go up and prices go down.
There is nothing that anyone can come up with that should frighten you into being in a hurry in today’s oversupplied and falling market.
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So, did I miss anything? Good advice? Bad?
Bravo, bravo!
NAR: Thank you very much. Very, err, interesting. But our RFP clearly specified we wanted 5 Rules, so we had to mark your bid as non-compliant. Thank you, and please participate again in the future!
“Standard & Poor’s cut or may lower ratings on almost $34 billion of securities backed by Alt-A mortgages, the firm’s largest downgrade for the type of debt.
Ratings on 1,326 classes of the bonds created in the first half of 2007 were reduced, New York-based S&P today said today in a statement. S&P put another 567 similar bonds with AAA ratings under review.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acTiV8fs6.LE&refer=home
How can this BE???? Haven’t they heard that it is all contained to sub-prime?
read the Sac Bee’s hot ‘n cold running Wasserman fas he uses a complete cut & paste reprint of local real estate hack attack job on REO’s, disguised of course as a ‘helpful’ REO newstory, which he posts as todays column.3
what a lazy hack.
I’m seeing houses starting to sell in certain areas of Sacramento, as well as in Palm Springs, Palm Desert, La Quinta, etc. This is puzzling, but it seems like areas that wealthier people like to live are starting to move. Maybe just a spring blip in the trend downward?
Prophet of Truth: “There are those who said this day would never come… what are they to say now?”
(I have no idea why a Halo quote comes to mind, but hey, there you go!)