Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For May 29, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Feds Toxic Medicine…
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/benson/2008/0527.html
The article addresses inflation, however:
“Businesses are discovering that the poor and unemployeed make lousy customers because they don’t spend enough. Lower real spending cuts into corporate profits and many businesses are starting to fail. Worse yet, the solvency of entire industries, including the airlines, automakers, retail stores and restaurant chains is on the line.”
This is a description of deflation, the product of an unwinding credit based economy, not inflation.
Inflation encourages people to spend money, to get rid of it as fast as possible due to its declining purchasing power.
Deflation has the opposite effect; During periods of deflation people hang onto their money because money is hard to get and hard to keep.
Deflation is what is destroying these businesses, not inflation, IMO.
And you know why too - there will be no meaningful wage inflation in this cycle. The hyper-consumer economy is kaput. So what if they spend more on gas and food? There is not enough money flowing into their wallets to replace what’s flying out.
All that’s happening now with the inflated commodities is that the very last of their savings and any remaining house equity is being wrung out for the boyz. What’s going to replace that? A $100k stimulus check to everyone, every year, for all eternity?
“What’s going to replace that? A $100k stimulus check to everyone, every year, for all eternity”?
I think it was Warren Buffet that said a $600.00 check won’t do much, but a $6000.00 check may help for a while.
We don’t need any more stimulus checks. What we need is to learn to live within our means and to start saving. The gov’t needs to create an incentive to save, but is addicted to revenues from profligate consumer spending.
We also need to have gov’t start *taxing* (gasp!) corporations that move their operations offshore. We need our manufacturing base back. Real wages and economic diversification have been decimated by all the economic capital sucked up by the housing boom.
The government has been so irresponsible with their monetary and economic policy it makes you wonder what’s really going on behind closed doors. If people on this blog have figured out what’s going on, and what the inevitable outcome is, then government policy makers have a pretty good idea too. They seem bent on destroying the future economy, for a temporary short-term gain, almost as if they don’t expect there to be a future in several years. How else to explain their actions? They certainly don’t intend to pay the piper for their actions.
I propose a REVERSE tax credit for businesses that employe 2nd 3rd shift weekend full time workers with health insurance.
There is so much unused capacity in America due to us being suckered into working 9-5 M-F, what about the other 128 hours a week?
Most industrial areas are dead after 6pm….plus we have massive traffic jams which shorten the life span of roads and bridges, subways buses are jammed…we need to build so much excess capacity Peak electric plants…which are very inefficient.
All because we just have to work 9-5 M-F, so the more people you have working the other 128 hours a week the bigger your tax break. I think that would be a more acceptable way to get out jobs back.
Of course the pols want to “tax” business, excess profits etc..
I mean don’t ask me for a discount in June for your wedding but in January i’ll do 50% off!
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We also need to have gov’t start *taxing* (gasp!) corporations that move their operations offshore. We need our manufacturing base back
“They seem bent on destroying the future economy, for a temporary short-term gain, almost as if they don’t expect there to be a future in several years. How else to explain their actions?”
Simple: It’s an election year; All else is secondary to this event.
The corporate tax should be zero. Who do you think actually pays the tax? It just gets passed along through the price. Companies are moving offshore because our corporate taxes are too high. Increase the taxes and more will leave.
I am no expert on tax law and its costs to corps that offshore, however I suspect that due to low transportation costs (read oil) and labor (read maybe couple bucks a day in wages) and low environmental regulations, that those companies would off shore even if the corporate taxes were zero in the US.
imho
We don’t need any more stimulus checks. What we need is to learn to live within our means and to start saving.
While I fundamentally agree with you, its hard to save and live within ones means when paychecks are tiny and prices are huge. Corporate America needs to share some of the wealth with its employees.
“…its hard to save and live within ones means when paychecks are tiny and prices are huge.”
It’s not hard when you consume less. “Lower Standard of Living” means less doggy daycare, eating out, and vacations for a lot of FBs that I know personally. I see absolutely nothing wrong with going back to the fundamentals.
RE: low transportation costs (read oil) and labor (read maybe couple bucks a day in wages) and low environmental regulations, that those companies would off shore even if the corporate taxes were zero in the US.
You forgot the sexual harrassment and discrimination
lawsuits, like the Postal Service’s multi-million dollar giveaway to a bunch of hags who were subject to reading
some off-color graffiti scrawled on a bathroom stall door(gasp-the horror, the horror!).
The tiny paycheck crowd doesn’t do any of those things, and they still can’t make ends meet. I agree that someone making 60K shouldn’t try to live like they make 100K, but to generalize that everyone does that is untrue and unfair to the working poor.
What I think America needs is more practical education and information about personal economics - and some understanding of the larger economic forces at hand.
So much of our ecomomy is based on people making careless decisions with their money or impulsive purchases. Hell, the credit card industry is built on people running up a few thousand bucks of debt and paying 12 to 25% on it for years - along with annual fees and onerous late charges. Our auto industry is built on people happily accepting that their cars are too complicated to maintain themselves, and “old” after 4 or 5 years use. Our computer industry is based on software and hardware that is obselecent after a few years — hell - Apple is making ipods and even the new slim computers with un-replaceable batteries. Millions of TV sets will become second-class citizens needing a new adaptor in Feb. 2009 because of fancy new digital signals.
The sad thing is that we’ve come to accept this - along with rising fees and taxes tacked onto every little part of our life. Where I live (DC area) - every municipality has tacked on an extra 4 or 5 % to the sales tax as a meal tax - it’s always outraged me - but nobody cares about it. And - while $4 gas may be getting people to reconsider their driving habits - we’re still a nation that leaves our office lights on, and heat and cool our houses to 68-72 degrees for the 10-12 hours that nobody is in them.
Nothing dramatic changes in this country until people start pushing back against the forces urging them to over-consume and take a little more out of their pocketbook at every turn.
Conversations like this make me happy that I’m a hiker/backpacker. My vacations cost me transportation to get to the mountains and then the high cost of granola.
Its the ultimate in low standard of living.
Not sure if having to bike to work would lower my standard of living. Or driving a small efficient car.
Sometimes I think our high standard of living is part of our problem. Eating too much, staying home in a mc mansion, driving instead of walking/biking…
Even in our lesiure persuits we do silly stuff. 10K mountain bikes! The entire point was exercising not personal best times up Mt Baldy cause you lowered the bike weight.
How much can you save by cutting back? Lets see. If you go to Coco’s for breakfast eggs and pancakes costs you 7.99. If you buy precooked meal at the grocery store, blah, it cost you 3.5$ for your lean quizine. If you go to tjs a dozen eggs are 1.50 and pancakes from mix costs you about 0.5$.
That is for your family of three ish you can spend 30$ at Coco’s, 11$ for microwave crud or about $1.25 at home. Not to mention you don’t spend money on gas going out. If you save your leftovers @ home… wow did your cost go down.
So, thats a around a 2800% margin for eating out.
We have the ability to spend way way WAY less. Heck, if you make pancake mix from scratch its even less.
Another thing on SUVs. They get infinite MPG sitting in the driveway. People that don’t have jobs will leave those things to rot. Not to mention those of us picking up older Civic and other small cars. SUV sits till the family visits or we are car pooling.
Currently if you look at expenditures are we inflating? If you include housing costs perhaps its actually going down.
I agree. The American business model is almost predicated on wastefulness. But until there’s a dramatic shift away from the right-decision-is-the-one that-results-in-the-most-profit mentality, we’re going to be mired in the muck of short-term capitalism. A few theorists have proposed models that take environmental and social costs into account for microeconomic decision making. I remember there was even a workshop about sustainable economics offered at Esalen a few years back. Of course, with almost every CEO, as well as Alan Greenspan, placing Ayn Rand’s sophomoric “Atlas Shrugged” on a eagle-adorned pedestal, there’s a ways to go. (Let me get into position for the anti-hippie, pro-Adam Smith crowds’ incoming assault missives.)
Don’t give them any ideas!
I am not sure if this is exactly inflation or deflation.
- The dollar is losing value and prices are rising = inflation.
- No wage inflation = inflation is not sustainable long-term.
- Housing prices dropping and people are saving what little they can = deflation.
- Government will do anything possible to fight deflation.
Maybe it is something else… just a nation growing poorer and poorer…
“Inflation encourages people to spend money, to get rid of it as fast as possible due to its declining purchasing power. Deflation has the opposite effect; During periods of deflation people hang onto their money because money is hard to get and hard to keep.”
What do you call it when people can’t spend because their incomes have not kept pace with drastically increasing prices?
I think the term “stagflation” was invented to cover this situation.
Advertising, especially TV is one big info commercial!!! Buy the newest, latest, most loaded_________ with no/or little financing( You can fill in the blanks-autos, homes, boats, furniture, fast food, movies, CDs, X-boxes, and my fav, get rich schemes).
It now appears that our only reason for existence is to buy “stuff” or services that in most cases we could do ourselves. Things are going to change for the better. People will bitch and complain but they will be better off in the long run on average. Not saying the poor and uneducated are not going to get screwed. They have and always will. I have no solution for that problem in the new/old para dyne.
dvertising, especially TV is one big info commercial!!! Buy the newest, latest, most loaded_________ with no/or little financing( You can fill in the blanks-autos, homes, boats, furniture, fast food, movies, CDs, X-boxes, and my fav, get rich schemes).
A friend of mine who is in advertising once told me this is the reason why his business always works. When times are good, they need you to buy. When times are bad, they need you to buy too…
There is now a general and massive deflation of housing prices, which were in a bubble.
But the debasement of the dollar by the Federal Reserve continues unabated. To say that the prices of things in dollars, such as gold, silver, oil, wheat, rice, and corn are in deflation is simply wrong. The major economic currents of deflation of the housing stock, and debasement of the dollar, are not mutually exclusive, even for an extended period of time. I realize this is the Housing Bubble Blog, but not every rise in the price of something in dollars means it’s in a bubble. The constant expansion of the money supply by the Fed as official policy guarantees a general inflation over time.
Inflation has been with us a long time…
When I had my coming out party in 1961, gas was around 25 Cents a gallon, a house in L.A. was $15-20k and a candy bar was a Nickel.
…and good paying wages for skilled workers in the aerospace industry was $6,000 annual income with pensions and health insurance…
There was no such thing as a 2-income family.
Long term, aggregate trend is deflationary. Dollar is firming and further rates cuts are less likely. Commodities, especially gold, have probably topped and are only likely to see another peak based on short-term geo-political instability.
There was no such thing as a 2-income family. Nope, in 1961 there were a fair number, my own among them. Now it is the norm, though.
Growing up in middle-class in So Cal in the 60’s, very few married women with kids, worked…
I just confirmed it with my octogenarian mom, who told that’s the way it was~
I lived through it & thought I was middle class at the time. That’s the way it was for me. Next thing, you’ll be saying I’m not right-handed.
I guess that after 40 years, all of our memories are scattered. I must say, people have a tendency to remember key facts/situations and fill in the blanks by what they believe at some later date upon reflection.
“There was no such thing as a 2-income family.”
I grew up in Palos Verdes in the 50’s and 60’s and pretty much every one of my friends’ moms worked at least part-time some of the time. Many had professional careers that they went into and out of as circumstances dictated and time allowed. Most college-educated women of that era did after their kids were in school, and the few who did not did extensive volunteer work.
“The constant expansion of the money supply by the Fed as official policy guarantees a general inflation over time.”
But this money supply expansion doesn’t come close to offsetting the destruction of money due to the collapse of asset prices.
Trillions of dollars are destined to disappear into thin air from whence they came. The Fed doesn’t have the trillions of dollars needed to offset this disappearance.
“Trillions of dollars are destined to disappear into thin air from whence they came. The Fed doesn’t have the trillions of dollars needed to offset this disappearance.”
Ah, but they DO, combotechie.
They can create more trillions of $$$ out of thin air. Anytime they feel like it. They have that POWER. And they will create what they think they need to, to keep the economy going.
The Federal Reserve has unlimited power to create journal entry dollars and credit. They don’t have the constraints of a budget. The U.S. Treasury, states, cities, and counties have budgets and will fall into deficit if they spend more than they take in in revenue. So how has the U.S. had budget deficits for generations, and yet still operates? Because the Federal Reserve, a private banking cartel organized in 1913, FUNDS the DEFICITS out of thin air. (Don’t confuse the Federal Reserve with the U.S. Treasury or the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing, which prints Federal Reserve Notes, known as dollars, or the Mint, which stamps out coins). If fifty banks come to the Fed with a total of a trillion in worthless mortgage paper, the Fed can decide to accept the paper as collateral on NEW LOANS to the banks, upon which the Fed will earn interest. All it takes is a computer journal entry. This will keep the banks from having to declare insolvency. That will prevent a general financial panic and run on banks. That will keep the markets working. But it will also further debase the dollar. All of what I wrote above is what is happening today. A collapsing housing bubble combined with the Fed propping up the banking system by creating $$$ out of thin air.
RE: All of what I wrote above is what is happening today. A collapsing housing bubble combined with the Fed propping up the banking system by creating $$$ out of thin air.
Maybe the MSM ought to get its’ shite together and start educationing the public about the FED’s debasement of the currency instead of broadcasting their nightly “weep and wail” $4.00 per gallon gaz” propaganda about oil company profiteering.
Maybe the MSM ought to get its’ shite together and start educationing the public about the FED’s debasement of the currency
They probably know that a shiny pair of cement shoes awaits anyone who tries to do that.
With the concentration of the MSM and banking system we have today, don’t look for an “expose’ ” on the Fed anytime soon. Expect more sock-puppet fights between Rep and Dem, and panty speculation re: Brittney and Paris.
Divide our attention and conquer our wealth.
Hope I don’t sound paranoid…did you just hear something???
MT, just because you maybe paranoid, doesn’t mean that someone is not out to get you!
lol
American public doesn’t matter they are captive buyers of treasuries via SS , its the foriegn money they will see what the FED is doing and should stop buying so many FED dollars seeing that they are creating too many of them. If they really are? I think the FED is just replacing the loses which is bad enough it causes the last few years inflation of home prices to drop slower than it otherwise would have.
Time to repeg Uncle Buck to Aunty Gold.
And people didn’t eat most of their meals in restaurants…and any half-*ss male could fix his own vehicle…
…now as then, when it came to surgery, we should still leave that to the doctors…(I refuse to argue with a doctor about costs and perscribed treatment as I am being rolled into the operating room).
Just a note about what you are saying. You may believe the Fed is debasing the dollar by creating more debt. I’m not entirely sure about that.
You have to look at total credit +money aka M3 and get a good idea of M0. I’m not sure the amount of credit that has been going to speculators/hedgies buying gold/oil/wheat exc is anything compared to the amount of credit that went into the housing bubble.
I think the sheer scale of what is going on in the MBS/CDO markets may dwarf the commodities bubble.
There is plenty of additional dollars being created by the fed every day. Both banks and investment banks have access to unlimited cash from the discount window and term lending facility at 2-2.5% interest rates. Also the Fed has to create a lot of new currency to buy enough treasuries to keep the federal funds rate at 2%. More currency chasing a static or decreasing supply of goods is the definition of inflation. The inflation is in commodities investing. Just because the working man doesn’t have any more money to spend does not mean thee is no inflation. Look around you - do you see any prices going down?
‘Look around you - do you see any prices going down?’
Only the most expensive things we buy; houses, land, cars, etc. If gas goes up I drive less. If a food type goes up, I switch to something else. But I have to have a place to live. And rents are falling like a rock; here anyway.
All things electronic are falling. My internet, telecom and entertainment prices are falling. Locally, labor costs are dropping, and people are under-employed. And if there is all this inflation, why are interest rates dropping?
High commodity prices with flat or lower wages isn’t inflation; it’s just a poorer population, which is deflationary.
“High commodity prices with flat or lower wages isn’t inflation; it’s just a poorer population, which is deflationary.”
Exactly. Commodity inflation is masking massive deflation. All eyes are on the 3x/week fuel fill up and not looking at the other 90%.
My internet, telecom and entertainment prices are falling.
What’s your secret? I’ve tried to negotiate my internet price lately (just increased) and my overall view is that this kind of stuff is and will continue to increase.
It depends. Soem providers are offering 1 year deals where yo get a discounted price for 1 year. I keep getting junik mail from Comcast and Qwest offering me TV/Internet/Phone bundles that don’t look bad, but the low prices are 1 year teasers.
DH and I did a two year agreement w/Comcast and the teaser rate is effective for both years.
Right, but after the low initial offerings, then what? Keep switching companies? Thank you Verizon DSL for that awesome rate for the past 12 months, but I think I’ll be switching over to Comcast Cable - at least for a year…
I agree deflation is here the FED is just slowing down the deflation by giving banks cheap money. what are the banks going to do with the money? I bet they loan it out to fast growing foriegn economies. All the government ideas of protecting US debtors won’t make getting loans any easier thast for sure.
I coined the term “inflation in the things you need, deflation in the things you want” and it bears repeating. If you can migrate to a cheaper alternative (rent vs. buy) than you will do so. Oil prices are a delicate balance of bleeding the consumer while keeping the alternatives just out of reach in a price based competition.
Most here seem to think deflation is in play (and it is in many consumer discretionary items, which will in turn filter into commodities) but I still think the precious metals are attractive here, and I’ll be a buyer (again) if it goes down another 5-10%. I ask myself, are the effects of the housing bubble bursting over? If not, what is the government going to do about it? Are banks out of the woods? And finally, where the f-k are they gonna get all this money to pay back all this debt at the federal, state, local, corporate, and personal level for all these benefits that people are expecting?
To me, its just too attractive for governments to debase their currency, so I cast my vote for gold and silver.
My internet just went from 4M/384k to 10M/1M for the same price. More product for the same $$$. I’m going to side with Ben on this one.
In fact, I’ve been trying to figure out what the inflationists on this board see that I’m missing. I don’t have any (formal) financial education in my background so I will freely admit I could be missing something obvious to the properly educated..
“I coined the term “inflation in the things you need, deflation in the things you want””
LMAO…. Really! Your name wouldn’t happen to be Howard Ruff would it?
You can check my posts on this very blog.
Judging by your post count and content, you have plenty of time and aren’t using your brain all that much, so go for it - but you’ll have to look into the archives long before you showed up around these parts.
Yeah… We’ll take your word for it amonkey.
Look around you - do you see any prices going down?
Indeed, someone needs to tell the grocery store, gas station, doctor’s office, restaurants, etc. that prices should be coming down.
“Indeed, someone needs to tell the grocery store, gas station, doctor’s office, restaurants, etc. that prices should be coming down.”
Patience.
Regarding restaurants: If you want to see the face of fear go to a restaurant during the busy hour and discover you are the only customer there and carefully study the owner’s face.
The prices in restaurants will go down alright; the prices will go to zero after they shut their doors.
Ain’t gonna happen. The Fed will crank up the virtual printing presses before allowing that to happen. Durables may drop in price but with consumables the sky is the limit.
Any “printing” will annihilate any industries that are merely discretionary at the end of the day : airlines, auto, restaurants, retail, hotels, travel, etc.
Hmmm … come to think of it “past printing” seems to be well on its way to achieving that goal.
You know, I would estimate that the majority of the US’s GDP comes from three sources-Auto and related, House and related and Food and related. All are primarily consumer oriented…
“Businesses are discovering that the poor and unemployed make lousy customers because they don’t spend enough…”
This is a description of deflation, the product of an unwinding credit based economy, not inflation.
Dunno about that, it seems to fit Zimbabwe pretty well.
Too bad for the businesses, what with the effort to create as many poor and unemployed as possible over the years (outsourcing, insourcing, downsizing, etc.) Gee, who’d have thunk that one needs to pay one’s employees enough to be able to buy one’s products? Duh!
Henry Ford’s theory on wages was that he paid his employees decent wages so that they could buy is Model T…
Gee, who’d have thunk that one needs to pay one’s employees enough to be able to buy one’s products?
You don’t, as long as there is someone out there who makes more money than they do and wants the product. Works for the Chinese, works for the Germans. The problem with the US is that it doesn’t make enough things that the rest of the world wants.
BTW Ford didn’t pay his employees high wages because he thought he could keep the company going selling cars to them. That’s Amway thinking. He wanted the best employees because he knew a quality product would increase market share and he could make up for the labor costs through automation.
A theory or can you prove it? My memory of past readings disagrees with yours. imho
Probably too late for anyone to see this, but:
Ford had another notion, rather original in its time: the workers were also potential consumers! In 1914, Ford workers’ wages were raised to $5 a day — an excellent wage — and they soon proved him right by buying their own Model Ts. Ford was called “a traitor to his class” by other industrialists and professionals, but he held firm in believing that well-paid workers would put up with dull work, be loyal, and buy his cars.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entries/dt13as.html
I saw it, thanks!
For the archives, Ben.
Businesses are discovering that the poor and unemployeed make lousy customers because they don’t spend enough
So firing your customers does have consequences…who could have foreseen that?
I keep hearing that mortgage lending is tighter, but then I hear FNM is taking lower deposits. So what are we to believe.
FNM is being manipulated by Congress because it is a GSE. Gov’t mandates and common sense are frequently at odds.
lending is generally not tighter outside the US, and as the credit markets are mostly global I guess that nothing has changed that much - yet.
In Netherlands there were some changes because the most aggressive players (like GMAC) pulled out of the market early this year. But you can still get 110%, 10x income, I/O, no-doc etc. loans at very low rates (maybe a few tenth of a % higher rate compared to low-risk loans). We have a long way to go before risk gets priced back into the market - mostly because up to now governments try to cover the risk of bad borrowers for the lenders.
Risk pricing covered by government has to be paid for somehow, and that means either increased taxation, currency inflation, and/or deficit spending.
Since I think the boomers need to pay for their own “prosperity”, I would vote for increased price inflation, because it would hopefully lead to Fed rate hikes and encourage saving. I wouldn’t mind taxation, except I abhor the gov’t reaching into my wallet when the present crop of idiots in office seem to lack a coherent fiscal policy entirely.
The alternatives actually seem worse, unless I am missing something?
I wouldn’t mind taxation, except I abhor the gov’t reaching into my wallet
Just what do you think price inflation is, if not that?
At least with inflationary taxes, the pain is spread more evenly…kind of like a flat tax. Steve Forbes should be creaming his jeans.
Not really: debtors win with inflation while savers lose.
And why would the Fed ever bother to stop runaway inflation since it doesn’t hurt them?
nhz, can borrowers in the Netherlands just walk away from underwater loans the way they can in parts of the US?
no, they can’t. For high income / high net worth individuals it is not so easy (officially) to get out of a bad loan.
First of all, a major difference with the US is that about 80% of recent loans are covered by the ‘National Mortgage Insurance’ (NHG), a semi-gov fund that will pay the remaining sum for the mortgage if you have to sell your home and are unable to pay off the mortgage from the sale (there are some conditions attached, e.g. you need a good reason to sell, like loosing your job, divorce etc.). So most of the Dutch homeowners can never end up in debt because of this. Sounds too good to be true, doesn’t it ? Of course, if you have significant savings you will have to use them first to pay off the mortgage (but many homeowners make sure then don’t have any official savings …).
For those not covered by NHG insurance, there is another option. It is pretty easy to arrange some kind of bankruptcy procedure where the debtor has to live from the minimum wage for three years, plus mandatory debt counceling lessons etc. After those three years all debts are cleared, credit records are reset etc. and it is off to the races again.
Usually people get into this situation because they loose their income, so often the actual income hit is pretty small. And you can even keep your car and other expensive toys. Of course, many people cheat and transfer their savings or properties to a family member when they see things are going wrong. So, all in all it is a very attractive procedure, so attractive that there is a long waiting list for it (not enough people to arrange all the paperwork …). Especially attractive when you consider the huge amounts of money people can gain here by leveraging to the max with the mortgage (all homeowner costs are 100% tax-deductible, and all gains are totally tax-free).
I believe that one of the mistakes that America made with lending practice was to get rid of insurance on low down loans (which carried with it stricter underwriting standards ).
When the brains came up with the 80/20 purchase notes to avoid PMI insurance ,it created the no skin in the game easy money BS. Having no skin in the game or insurance on higher risk loans created the situation we have today . Without the normal protections on lower down loans, it allowed borrowers to play the leverage game with the lenders carrying all the risk without even having insurance protection. I still do not understand to this very day why the lenders/risk raters thought that if you charged a higher rate for a lower down loan ,that it would make the risk better . To allow a no doc. loan on a low down loan is just plain foolish . These speculators had nothing to loose by going for it .
Housing Wizard: not sure what you are saying, but I think that the mortgage insurance policy in Netherlands is one of the biggest causes of our runaway homeprices; it makes things worse than it would be without insurance! The latest proposals for Fannie and Freddie sound like the US wants to move in this direction as well.
Because of the semi-gov. mortgage insurance, lenders think there is zero risk, so they offer even lower rates to these buyers (so low that it more than compensates for the official insurance premium, which is about 0.3% of the loan amount). The highest risk loans and loans above a certain value (a little above median home price) are not fully covered by the insurance, but cou can still use huge leverage or piggy-back loans so that even million euro speculators are covered in case the market turns against them.
The fund started shortly after homeprices began rising in the early nineties and their risk premium and capital backing are based on 20 years of non stop pricegrowth. When prices start plunging the fund will be underwater within a very short time. And just like with Fannie and Freddie, the question is if the Dutch government is going to cover for them. Officially there is no connection, but most of the funds directors are high level politicians so everyone assumes that the government (tax payer) will bail out the fund in an emergency situation. But I’m sure the plunge can be severe enough to make a bailout impossible. The only other option would be to tighten up the rules for when the fund has to pay, and this seems to be starting now already (while prices are still climbing).
I think this kind of free put options for the general public, (unofficially) backed by the taxpayer, are a VERY bad idea.
I’m late in posting a response .
For decades lenders would put insurance on low down loans and the private insurance companies would also under-write the loan .So ,because of the private insurance on the lower down loan,the loans were harder to get and had to get pass harder underwriting . Some banks were self-insured ,but you had to be pretty big to do that .
In the case of a government insuring a loan, its a different ball game . If the government takes higher risk and insures it ,any loss will be paid by tax dollars . In the case of private insurance companies ,they would go out of business if they insured loans that were not underwritten in a prudent manner .
Also lenders use to hold on to loans for a couple of years and than sell them because the borrower had paid down some of the debt and proved they were a good pay . Very different when the sellers of loans are passing on junk loans without insurance or proper underwriting .
What does the European central bank think of the Netherlands housing shenanigans? I guess it’s time to read up and how the Euro is managed…
Imagine the Dollar just emerging in our country less than 10 years ago, after centuries of each of our 50 States having had individual currencies?
That’s the Euro situation(more like a dozen+ countries), currently.
There’s a few obvious weak links (Ireland & Spain) that are on the verge of going splat, and a chain is only as strong as it’s weakest link…
It’s not a chain, more like a bunch of people riding an elephant (Germany, Austria, Finland and in a good year France). The elephant can keep going just fine without the people, but the people can’t get anywhere without the elephant.
Where does the elephant get its food (taxes)? No taxing authority. One job, control inflation - good luck. Most people cannot diffentiate between inflation and demand driven price increases. In the meantime the ECB raises rates and increases the money supply by 17%. Stupid way to control inflation, it makes the Federal Reserve look conservative.
I think the ECB actually planned to make an (even bigger) housing bubble by introducing the euro, as you know nothing makes voters more confident than seeing the value of their home skyrocket year after year. In many euro countries the housing bubble got an extra surge when the euro was introduced; the same happens in all new member states that join the euro. Of course raising the money supply by about 15% every year (currently even higher as hoz mentions) while the economy is hardly growing helps a lot to keep property markets surging.
The ECB has never warned the Netherlands about their housing policies as far as I know, so I guess they like what see; all those euros have to go somewhere. There have been many warnings from other parties (IMF, OECD, lately the Dutch central bank) but our government does not want to listen. Last week one of the most important government policy institutes warned that Dutch housing policy is an utter failure that desperately needs drastic changes. They are spending nearly 30 billion a year in housing subsidies (for less than 17 million people) and most of that ends up with a small group of wealthy owners and renters.
But our politicians do not want to listen. The three biggest parties have different views regarding the housing market, but they all choose to do nothing (never change entitlements …) and ride the bubble as long as it lasts. For those who believe that a two party system is the problem: we have many political parties here and it doesn’t help a bit; change has been a no-no for twenty years or so. Under the current government, discussion of the housing policy is officially forbidden in parliament and for government officials (how is that for a democracy?).
Thanks for the Dutch perspective. It’s why I love this blog.
All currencies are going down… it’s a
Fiat Accompli
you are only looking at one side. how about the income requirement to get the loan. they could lower the down payment to zero, but may require a net income stream of 3x the monthly payment.
The effect of debt on the economy
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cost-soaring-private-public-debt/story.aspx?guid=%7B850A8114%2DC2BE%2D4C36%2DBC01%2DFB07DC75B45F%7D&dist=TNMostRead
World food prices will remain 80% higher through 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/worldwide-food-crop-prices-remain/story.aspx?guid=%7BCACF8028%2D6639%2D4673%2D92F8%2DC9B3BFBF37AE%7D
They say 2017, but it must be a typo. I’m sure they mean 2009 or 2010.
As Han Solo said when trapped in the giant trash compactor: “We’re going to be a lot thinner”
Copied directly from the front page of Marketwatch this morning. Do you see something unusual?
the fed’s Fisher sees rate shift even if growth weakens
Dallas Fed president says inflation is insidious enemy, predicts rate shit “sooner rather than later” if inflation threat increases.
• Mishkin to leave Fed, return to academia
• Timely reversal needed to whip inflation, Stern says
Fisher is speaking from a rearview mirror perspective. Masters of The Obvious.
That rate shit sounds unpleasant. ;o)
BINGO! It’s still on the frontpage too!
Looks like they’ve fixed it. So much for truth in reporting.
I would be amazed if the FED were to raise rates next go round. The offical inflation rate is low, even though it’s bogus. I would bet they hold, gonna be very hard for Ben B. to ease up on the money spigot.
As if a 1/4 pt shift either way is going to make a bit of difference in the ass-pounding the consumer & saver is getting right now.
Auger, where you been? There was a conspicuous, deafening silence in the *ss pounding department.
Fisher has always been more hawkish on inflation in his comments than the other members of the FR.
Mishkin? hawkish?
BWAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHH!!!
He’s the one who said that asset bubbles cannot be identified. He’s the ultimate inflator.
You’re probably thinking of Fisher.
Mishkin is the one who’se leaving apparently.
predicts rate shit Why Dr. Freud, your slip is showing.
Worst ever drop for UK home prices last month.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/may-uk-house-prices-see/story.aspx?guid=%7B725A7C1F%2DA906%2D46AD%2DAAAC%2D03451E9D3EAD%7D
Pawning for Payroll… I know a fellow in the pawn business, he says it’s very good.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JE30Dj01.html
The article is right its getting harder to sell common stuff on ebay, but look at what i sold a few weeks back after da mehicans were renovating a house and tossed this into the dumpster:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=250237461040&ssPageName=STRK:MESO:IT&ih=015
that’s a great find! what’cha find to eat in the dumpster?
Someone snatched our rusted out formerly $35 barbeque grill from next to the dead tree pickup pile before the garbage truck got to it. Not sure if they were intending to barbeque, do “art”, or sell the bit of metal.
I was going to put it in a sack so the Texans wouldn’t know I wasn’t one of them, but my wife didn’t see the shame in not having a fancy barbeque. (Maybe she thought the Jones would think we were finally upgrading.)
Heheh, I’ve got a $20 Weber and I’m the only one in the neighborhood who grills all the time. The neighbors all have $1100 -$1200 grills and they never pull em out of the garage. Tonight, Spicy Asian Skirt Steak Salad with ginger-lime dressing!
We have a Weber Genesis gas grill. 10 years old and still works great. It gets used a lot.
Yep. I have a 1994 vintage Genesis. Replaced flavorizor bars with the stainless ones and grates 2x. It’ gets used 5days/week.
Contrast that with those cheapo gas grills. I once had one where the burner simply rusted away. They sold new burners at home depot, but I figured that the rest of the gas delivery mechanism was probably shot as well, so I tossed the whole thing.
The article mentioned craigslist having a 70% increase in items for sale. I definitely see the increase, but unfortunately the number of items actually worth buying has probably dropped.
I looked at the cars for sale section and every third listing is a very obvious scam. Apartments for rent and condos for sale are now 85% relistings from the MLS - agents apparently think that they don’t need to lower the prices, just get a wider audience and someone will pay the asking price!
I have been looking for a soldering iron for a while. I want a fairly decent one with good temperature control and exchangeable tips because I intend to do SMD soldering later on. All I can find on craigslist are plumber’s soldering irons and ebay is 99% knockoffs - I have no way of knowing if I’ll ever be able to get replacement tips, how long it will work, or if the temperature control will work. The real name brand items are all being “sold” at retail prices, so why bother?
I know many pawnbrokers and they are all getting rather gunshy about loaning much on consumer goods of dubious resale value…
The key to the pawnshop business is the rate of redemption, (the person you loaned money to on an item comes back and pays the loan & interest, to get it back) and redemption rates are falling like a rock.
Gold jewelery not being redeemed (they end up owning it for around 35% of spot price) is a good thing.
Dozens of used 42 inch HD tv’s not being redeemed is a storage nightmare, and who do you sell them to?
Maybe I should check out my local pawn shop. Last time I checked, it was NOT a place to shop for bargains.
How much are they asking for these 42″ TVs?
A “must listen”:
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1242
(click the 2nd link under the photo)
“8 reasons to be happy about $8.00 a gallon gas”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/eight-reasons-youll-rejoice-we/story.aspx?guid=%7B82FCE1B0%2D1889%2D43B0%2DA465%2DE29BFEE95576%7D&dist=TNMostRead
Gas prices are an interesting beast. If gast prices went to 8$ a gallon it would really have no direct effect on my budget. Sure, food would go up, clothing, etc. But, as far as car use is concerned, its such a small portion of my budget that a 50% increase wouldn’t mean much. But I live in DC and don’t drive much.
The flip side…. I have relatives in Wisconsin and everything they do is 30 miles here or 40 miles there. Gas prices outside of metro areas are a more significant portion of a persons budget.
The only real effect it would have on me is a psychological one.
For me just to visit my mom in CT who lives 50 miles away from me in queens, means 4 gallons plus $11.50 in tolls or almost $30.
I could bypass the tolls by driving into Manhattan but then i could get stuck in bumper to bumper traffic on the FDR drive.
No train available?
My parents live in a small city in Indiana and are a few miles from a train station. Kind of a strange place for a train station - the north side of the tracks is a national park and the south side of the tracks is a state park. Just a platform and a parking lot, surrounded by nothing. From Chicago to that station is $11 round trip on weekends. With gas and tolls, it became cheaper to take the train last year, long before the recent price increases.
And they’re more than happy to pick me up
No train available?
Yes $13 each way peak $9.75 non peak then i have to pay $2 each way for the subway to grand central…. I could walk from the train station to my moms house and back home here in queens…so ok i can save $5
Even at $4 gas its still far easier to drive..
Dune Acres, I presume.
Dune Park for my sister in Valpo, IN.
I have a friend whose company moved from Massachusetts to Nashua NH, just over the border, about two years ago. Being in New Hampshire, the company gained some tax advantage and cheaper rent. They calculated that the move added about 15 miles (30 miles round trip) on to the average employee’s commute.
The average car in the US gets 25.3 mpg, that’s another $4.70 a day for each employee to get to and from work, almost $100 a month, after taxes.
Not surprisingly, people are looking to get out of there.
Wouldn’t moving back to Taxachusetts subject them to more income tax? If they rent in Nashua, they could evade high property tax and potentially offset the relative cost of the transportation increase, no?
NSO,
I should have been more clear.
The company is staying. The employees are looking to leave the company for something closer to home. The employees themselves are not looking to move to NH for any number of reasons. Their spouses have jobs in MA, they are in a town and neighborhood they value highly, ….
Concerning “taxachusetts”, someone posted a tax comparison a few days ago about all the states. MA is actually very low compared to other states, granted NH is lower, but MA is not even close to the top half.
The average car in the US gets 25.3 mpg, that’s another $4.70 a day for each employee to get to and from work, almost $100 a month, after taxes.
Of course, only about half of all vehicles on the road are “cars”
The U.S.A. Is a sprawling Country, it will take many years to make any real progress anyway from the internal combustion engine. Mass transit is almost impossible in many rural areas. I have meet people from big cities that have never been out into the Country. No doubt we should work toward a change, but it won’t be as easy or as fast as many would like to believe. We all have different view points, but getting away from oil will be a tough row to hoe. However necessity is the mother of invention. The population will figure it out and come up with alternatives , legislation will just slow it down.
Mass transit won’t help most of America in the short run, and the SUVs are bought and would cost too much to replace. But people could carpool if they wanted to.
Yes, demand for gas adjusts very slowly to price changes. I’m not sure which is the more important metric: the average amount of time that a person owns a car or the average economic life of a car. I’m guessing the former, since to some degree it is NEW cars that change the mix of cars that is on the road. OTOH, since new cars are only a percentage of cars that are on the road, the percentage of newer, more fuel efficient cars is determined by the second number.
SUV’s too costly to replace?
A coworker puts 500 bucks a month in her beast.
I pointed out that she could borrow the money for a corolla focus kia ect, and make payments plus insurance with the money she would save on gas.
Still driving the pig.
But she feels so *safe* in it! LOL
Ummmm….. No. we wont.
We have forgotten how to invent anything but financial scams in this country. At this point, necessity is just a mother-
Gasoline is the original “just in time” consumer item, and what separates it from things such as foodstuffs is, 99.99% of us can’t keep a decent supply of it on hand, as it’s bulky and not easy to store in larger quantities, for the average person.
Prices are the concern now, but we are on the verge of a 1973-like gas shortage, and the first casualties of the lack of go juice will be all those people that bought houses out in B.F.E., and commute to work.
“8 reasons to be happy about $8.00 a gallon gas”
1 reason to be happy about 14+ % mortgage interest rates:
It would make monthly payments “Thee” determining factor in relation to purchase price.
I just love these utopians that think all of these problems are easily solvable.
Replace the internal combustion engine? With what? Sure there are “alternative powerplants”, but they all do the job at much greater expense, less efficiency, or less “flexibility” (no getting in the car and driving 600 miles to granny’s with an electric car) Hybrids are the “worst of both worlds” solutions in a lot of ways.
If the Silicon Valley boys are as smart and creative as they say they are, why haven’t they come up with an AFFORDABLE alternative to the good old automobile?
Public Transportation? Great, if it work’s for you. But everyone seems to have forgotten that one of the reasons that cars became popular was that people got tired of being at the mercy of the public transportation unions.
Anyone care to argue that there won’t be some kind of unholy alliance between the local politicians and the transportation union employees to soak the fare-payers to within an inch of their life, if public transportation becomes your only alternative to get to work?
And you’ll still get to sit next to the drunk bums or be beaten half to death like what’s happened around Baltimorgue on the buses! Fun!
I am personally convinced that there is a not-so-secret alliance between environmentalist, urban-renewal utopians, and safety-nazis to make automobiles so inconvenient and unaffordable, that the huddled masses will be priced out of the personal transportation market, and forced onto whatever type of public transportation program they decide to provide for us.
Having the sheep stuck in upside down properties, with the government the only source of stock trailers/public transportation (so the sheep are taken where they are told, not where they may choose to go), makes it a lot easier for the sheep to be sheared, vs. tracking down individual sheep on the open range, with their own transportation. Government and business don’t like it when you have the option of “voting with your feet”.
We can’t have all these sheep making decisions for themselves…….it screws up the Master Plan.
Unfortunately looking at our own public transit system is not what we should expect from a properly functioning system. If you go to Japan, you will see a rail/subway system that is clean enough for the folks in expensive business suits to sit on every day. In fact, since most people must use the system, the riders are generally polite towards each other and respect the trains like they would their own homes. The operators are clean and wear spotless uniforms, the stations are devoid of trash, and cell phone talking is banned. It’s almost eerie to be surrounded by thousands of people, and yet it’s quiet enough where most riders are sleeping or reading.
We may never get there without upheaving our highway and suburbia infrastructure. Japan during the reconstruction days after WW2 was in a state of economic despair and commodities were expensive. They rebuilt their cities with train stations being the heart of their communities. We (USA) built our infrastructure/suburbs with a “cheap oil forever” mentality. Now we are finding it difficult to connect loosely populated sprawl with any kind of meaningful public transit system… this is going to be a tough drag on our economy.
So Asia goes to work with minimal effect from high oil prices, while the US worker/consumer suffers. How are we going to stop shipping jobs overseas? In a way, we are victims of our own post-WW2 success.
The only bright spot I see is the emergence of internet communications. White collar jobs should telecommute and use webcam, phone and IM/Email. Imagine the gas saved if a large company with 10k employees shuts down 3 days a week and asks the employees to work from home?
Yes, I can hardly wait to try out the Japanese subway system. It looks like a joy!!!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=PWm8Lrp7-Lo
Sardines anyone?
My parents were in LA(mother, really) and San Diego during WWII. My mother explained that in LA, there was a great public transportation system-electric trolley cars. GM and Goodyear were somehow involved in either buying the system or the politicos and shipping the cars off to either SF or Seattle…
Maybe an old wives tail, but think not!
in LA, there was a great public transportation system-electric trolley cars Many parts of the country had good public transportation systems before 1945. As soon as people could afford a $500 Model T and 20 cent a gallon gas, they stopped using these marvelous systems. No need for a conspiracy theory here.
May I say, why would the general public pay $500 for a Model T, it public transportation was so much cheaper. Thats like saying the purchase of a house is cheaper than renting, if you have little money, and suspect for most people, $500 was a lot of money.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_American_Streetcar_Scandal
for details about the conspiracy.
I grew up in So. Cal and first heard this story from my h.s. chem teacher–don’t know if it’s true.
Don’t think it’s an old wives tale. I remember seeing a documentary , on PBS, telling that exact scenario.
The South African Reserve Bank is considering hiking the Repo Rate (the interest rate they charge banks) by 2%! It’s currently sitting at 11.5% and they’ve always raised it by 0.5% every rat hike for the past 2 years. A 1% hike at least is basically guaranteed. The Reserve Bank Governor is getting desperate because consumer price inflation continues to rise.
http://capetownbubble.blogspot.com/2008/05/tito-goes-nuclear-2-rate-hike-in.html
And the Producer Price Inflation numbers released today just went to 12.4%. 1% rate hike looks definite with a 2% hike becoming even more probable.
Gala Auction Feels a Chill From Wall Street’s Slump
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/29/business/29hedge.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Financiers like Henry Kravis rubbed shoulders with media darlings like Tom Brokaw and Diane Sawyer and hedge fund managers like Art Samberg.
And I wonder why I don’t trust anything coming from MSM.
This year, the packages were equally lavish but the bidding simply did not climb as high. One package, called “Universally Entertaining,” included a walk-on role on the television show “The Office,” a walk down the red carpet at the Golden Globes and Super Bowl tickets, among other things. The package sold for about $500,000. Another package, “Experience Australia in Five-Star Luxury,” included a flight on the “world’s largest and most technologically advanced aircraft” and fetched $420,000.
“It felt quieter — I can’t explain it,” a former hedge fund executive said. “People are losing their jobs on Wall Street, and hedge fund guys are not making 30 percent this year.”
After reading that heart wrenching quote, I felt a tear well up. No, wait, it’s just my allergies. Do these clowns expect any type of sympathy???
My heart bleeds for these money grubbing elitist crybabies. These are the same guys who paid $400 million to lobbyists because they were “too regulated”.
That’s just plain sad, what’s the matter with Brokaw, Sawyer & Kravis cheeping out on the deal.
After reading that heart wrenching quote, I felt a tear well up. No, wait, it’s just my allergies. Do these clowns expect any type of sympathy???
LoL! I agree, but Brother Bernanke feels their pain, and he is the one holding the purse strings.
Sometimes my chili is heart wrenching.
The total number of permits issued in April fell to 223, from 459 in April 2007, led by declines in permitted units in Queens and Brooklyn.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080527/FREE/32069976/1059
“You hear stories about major developers not getting financing so I’m sure some smaller developers feel they have no chance,” says Gregory Heym, chief economist at Terra Holdings, the parent of residential brokerages Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property.
Real Estate Overcharges: A Dollar Here, a Million There…
http://www.lawyersandsettlements.com/articles/10674/real-estate-dollars-become-millions.html
Escrow closing fee kickback scams can actually be fairly sophisticated. One such scheme saw the creation of a corporation by real estate agents, a corporation that purchased an interest in a title insurance and escrow enterprise. Then a collection of corrupt homebuilders did the same—creating a similar corporation, and purchasing a partial interest in an escrow company.
The next step, of course, was to refer home buyers to their own title companies which, in turn, returned a portion of the title and settlement fees to the corrupt realtors and builders.
The housing scam problem is just starting to rear its ugly head.
Realtors and builders are getting desperate and resorting to criminal activities? Say it ain’t so!!!
And this could explain why all those crooked cash-back deals got done with those two sets of escrow instructions .
LIBOR alternatives gain ground.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8IjIP_2L4E4&refer=home
How and why did these major banks coordinate this action? It seems like many on this list are in the $3 bn+ writedown club.
Why one would want to open the door to collusion by setting a key global interest rate barometer solely on the reports of sixteen major players is a related question.
Study Casts Doubt on Key Rate
By Carrick Mollenkamp and Mark Whitehouse
Word Count: 2,191 | Companies Featured in This Article: Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase, UBS, Thomson Reuters
LONDON — Major banks are contributing to the erratic behavior of a crucial global lending benchmark, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows.
The Journal analysis indicates that Citigroup Inc., WestLB, HBOS PLC, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG are among the banks that have been reporting significantly lower borrowing costs for the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, than what another market measure suggests they should be. Those five banks are members of a 16-bank panel that reports rates used to calculate Libor in dollars.
That has led Libor, which is supposed to reflect the average rate at which banks lend to each other, to act as if the banking system was doing better than it was at critical junctures in the financial crisis. The reliability of Libor is crucial to consumers and businesses around the world, because the benchmark is used by lenders to set interest rates on everything from home mortgages to corporate loans.
I continue to be amazed that Lie-bor was just based on what people said, not actual transactions. You can’t trust anyone who was under 30 when the Who’s “My Generation” came out.
One thing is for certain: Interest rates in the global money market are missing an inflation risk premium — rather a conundrum!
Wife and I are 80% cash right now. I realize we’re losing to inflation, but I’d rather lose the inflation difference, than put it anywhere else.
Talk about lowering interest rates. Going below zero is pretty amazing.
Got chemicals?
Dow Chemical Plans Big Price Bump
Dow Chemical said surging energy and material costs are forcing it to raise prices of all its products by up to 20%. The price increase will be effective starting June 1.
yup,
oil is food, got ketchup, cornuts, smokes, and booze as well.
all the major food groups represented?
Community Park District charging more for their programs bc of gas costs……it costs more for them to mow their parks.
It’s a terrible time for businesses to be charging consumers more for much of the same level of service if not lower.
It is amazing to see how this mess is gathering momentum. I have been pretty busy lately, so not much HBB surfing. However, I keep the TV on in the background at my office and hotels. CNN talks negatively about the economy, housing, oil, etc. Jack Cafferty had a huge segment on personal bankruptcy and how the consumer is at wit’s end.
Looks like those who predicted an over correction will be correct.
Also - anyone else having RSS problems?
Oh - forgot to mention the headline on the USA Today that was delivered to my hotel door yesterday:
Housing Market Just Gets Uglier
Now if that isn’t an MSM capitulation, I don’t know what is.
I would not call it a bottom signal, though.
Housing Market Just Gets Uglier
I’d call it MSM capitulation when it starts reading:
Housing Affordability Just Gets Better
Yes, I can’t get the RSS feeds to work since the last database upgrade.
I just miss the HOME button…
“I just miss the HOME button…”
Me too, eastie.
Czech President Klaus ready to debate Gore on climate change
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/208338,czech-president-klaus-ready-to-debate-gore-on-climate-change.html
Klaus, an economist, said he opposed the “climate alarmism” perpetuated by environmentalism trying to impose their ideals, comparing it to the decades of communist rule he experienced growing up in Soviet-dominated Czechoslovakia.
“Like their (communist) predecessors, they will be certain that they have the right to sacrifice man and his freedom to make their idea reality,” he said.
“In the past, it was in the name of the Marxists or of the proletariat - this time, in the name of the planet,” he added.
Klaus said a free market should be used to address environmental concerns and said he oppposed as unrealistic regulations or greenhouse gas capping systems designed to reduce the impact of climate change.
“It could be even true that we are now at a stage where mere facts, reason and truths are powerless in the face of the global warming propaganda,” he said.
“Czech President Klaus ready to debate Gore on climate change”
I would love to see that, but seriously doubt Gore will do it. There really isn’t much to the guy, however he has made a ton of money on this sham.
a BP add had no nukes as “divesity” in energy portfolio
wind is 7 year payback - the rest is total bs
For someone who’s standard line is that “the debate is over”, what’s there to debate about?
No way he will do it, considering he doesn’t let media cover his speeches any more. Who the he11 let this useless boy of privilege set the terms of debate of such an important issue? Don’t get me started.
If Gore agrees, I am sure he will rent a Gulfstream-V or a similar carbon-spewer to fly him to the debate. All these egomaniacs (example: Bono) love to preach to the little people how to live, but rarely change any part of their lifestyle. “It’s for security purposes” is my favorite.
PS - I work for people like this and I get to ride on G-IVs/Vs and love it. I make no effort to hide my huge carbon footprint. I do not own an SUV, though.
Instead of comparing the debate to communism, Klaus should liken his quixotism to that of South African president Mbeke denying that HIV causes AIDS, or the Catholic church in the 16th century, clinging to the idea of the Sun orbiting the earth despite all the evidence otherwise produced by scientists like Galileo.
I thought Galileo just proved that there were some celestial objects that didn’t circle the earth (moons of Jupiter) by direct observation. Did he have any direct proof of the earth orbiting the sun?
Copernicus came up with the theory that the earth circled the sun. Galileo helped develop the mathematics. No single person made all the discoveries that explain planetary physics, obviously. He is just one of the more notable scientists who challenged conventional dogma and was persecuted for it.
I think it was Kepler who did the math, or described it at least. Weren’t those Kepler’s laws in 8th grade science?
Wikipedia entry says Galileo refused to ever accept that planets moved in ellipses instead of circles. That would get in the way of doing much of the mathematics that explains planetary motion since you would get everything wrong.
Schools out;
should be a lot of rentals coming back on the market as Bif and Katie head back to mom and dads.
True in our College Town. Tons of rentals available and they keep right on building. A rental down the street just emptied when Ashley, Britney,Courtney, Brad & Tripp moved out.
The three vacents next to me didn’t even bother to rent out to students. Of course College Park, MD has Draconian rules about rental properties. The cost of retrofitting sprinklers alone would discourage many prospective landlords.
Does PG County still have a volunteer fire department? When I was working there in the early 90’s, I was shocked to discover that it had a volunteer fire department. I wasn’t aware of volunteer fire departments anywhere outside of rural areas, much less a heavily urbanized area. From work, I saw cars on two different occasions burn at the end of an offramp from the beltway. The police would show up in about 5 minutes, fire trucks in another 15.
I believe they’re a mix of volunteer and professional.
they do a pretty good job now…a fair amount of infighting but it works, at a semi reasonable price.
I used to live behind the old Laurel fire house. I was very glad when tye moved, it meant that I wasn’t awakened in the middle of the night whenever there was a fire. Especially in the summer when the windows were open.
A lot of news in the multi-family sector is focused on apartments in college areas being the next great (read last decent) investment. Kind of like medical office buildings.
Not in Pullman, WA. Landlords are really struggling due to a massive oversupply. Too many parents buying homes and condos for Junior’s undergrad years. There has been virtually no enrollment or population growth over the past 8 years, but builders have been going crazy in both multi-family and single family. Supply and demand.
Falling Down?
The 1st prominent insider in ’ssshrubery’s inner circle spilled the beans about what an abomination his cabinet is/was, and it’s not as if it’s something we didn’t know already, but all the same, i’d be tracking pitchfork sales in the greater D.C. area, as to better gauge the severity of the public’s discontent…
The act of spilling the beans is far more telling than whats written in the tea leaves. Mclellan knows there are perps walks in store for all of them, from the top down, and the only way he can avoid it is being first to come clean. This band of lying thieves makes the Nixon and his cast of felons look like boy scouts.
Looks like we have the John Dean of the new generation.
Is his wife a babe too?
Yeah. It’s got John Dean written all over it. Except this cast of criminals dwarf the scope and depth of the plumbers.
If not, he can pick up a new one now with all the money from the book sales…
No one’s going to jail. It’s all about the money. There’s a future for this guy in real estate, I think.
“No one’s going to jail.”
Yeah. Thats what the plumbers kept telling themselves.
Whoever gets in next is a one termer. Economic events will overtake what lame efforts the politicians of either party will try. If on top of that a Democratic majority in Congress overreaches with stupid investigations on top of lousy tax policies, there will be a quick reversal in the 2010 election, just like 1994.
My inclination is always to say that the politicians are smarter than to repeat those stupid mistakes of the past, but they never fail to outdo themselves.
Lousy tax policies? Anything over the current insanity is an improvement. Investigations are just ramping up but I’ll archive that forecast and we’ll talk in 4 years.
Yeah. Thats what the plumbers kept telling themselves.
Even Nixon was not brazen enough to pardon his staffers. W has already demonstrated he will do it, and do it again.
Yogurt, the Libby case wasn’t just any pardon. Libby was found guilty and convicted of FOUR felonies. Count ‘em…. 4. Anyone of us would get tossed in jail for just one or even a misdemeanor. Have no doubt in your mind, the criminal actions of this administration will not go unpunished.
Mclellan knows there are perps walks in store for all of them, from the top down, and the only way he can avoid it is being first to come clean.
Well, we’ll see.
It’s my fervent hope that many of them do end up perp walking and doing time in the pokey, but I’m not holding my breath.
Me neither. They’ll just sit on their new one million acre ranch in Paraguay watching the campesinos slaving away and whine about how they’re not appreciated as The Great Historical Figures they feel they are. You know, like Lincoln, Churchill, all that.
P.S. Does anyone know if Paraguay has an extradition treaty with the US? My bet is no.
Just pulled up the Paraguay, US extradition treaty.
Article IV: “extradition shall not be granted for a political offense.”
Why no earth would they need that in there!? Lol
last time i check war crimes are not political offenses.
The Unraveling, The jihadist revolt against bin Laden.
“These new critics, in concert with mainstream Muslim leaders, have created a powerful coalition countering Al Qaeda’s ideology. According to Pew polls, support for Al Qaeda has been dropping around the Muslim world in recent years. The numbers supporting suicide bombings in Indonesia, Lebanon, and Bangladesh, for instance, have dropped by half or more in the last five years.”
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=702bf6d5-a37a-4e3e-a491-fd72bf6a9da1
Very interesting read. Maybe the good Muslims can stop this violence before we have to.
“According to Pew polls, support for Al Qaeda has been dropping around the Muslim world in recent years.”
But support for Bigfoot and AlSharpton is picking up.
Perhaps W and Bin Laden could kindly coordinate their exits from the world stage?
Unfortunatly most of the stories on MW are propaganda, not quite as bad as fox or CNBC, but none the less it’s pretty much imposible to get the corporate media to not cheerlead, which makes scence since the corporation own both the media and the gov
“The numbers supporting suicide bombings in Indonesia, Lebanon, and Bangladesh, for instance, have dropped by half or more in the last five years.”
It would stand to reason (in my mind) that at some point the pool of people willing to blow themselves up would dwindle. Especially when in the bigger picture they have very little lasting effect.
God I certainly hope so. We’ve got our own ‘crazies’ to deal with.
Maybe if we stayed the heck out their countries and left them alone they’d be less pissed at us? Nah…too much common sense there.
You’re no fun.
Correct vthousingbear. A presidents “legacy of greatness” is far more important than little details like that.
ECONOMIC REPORT
U.S. first-time jobless claims rise by 4,000
Latest week’s continuing claims remain at level not seen since 2004
By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
Sears Swings to a Loss As Weak Sales Hit Results
By Donna Kardos
Word Count: 668 | Companies Featured in This Article: Sears Holdings, Lowe’s, Best Buy, Kohl’s, J.C. Penney
Note to prospective home buyers: L-t T-bond yields and mortgage rates have traditionally moved with about 99 pct correlation after a lag (with L-t T-bond yields leading). Buy now, or get priced out forever by rising mortgage rates!
Investors increase bets on US rate rise
Investors increased their bets that rising oil prices would force the Federal Reserve to raise US interest rates this year, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond above 4 per cent for the first time since January - 03:27
–
Sub-PAR Home Price Watch
Par in financial markets stands for 100. The following areas are the next to enter Sub-PAR in terms of home price per square foot (PPSF) as per the latest Radar Logic data.
Metro_____ PPSF
St. Louis__ $102.59
Tampa, FL $111.40
Jacksonville $114.25
Milwaukee $114.76
Phoenix, AZ $127.01
Las Vegas $133.93
The Current Sub-PAR areas are:
Cleveland__ $88.92
Columbus $91.26
Detroit, MI $92.73
Atlanta, GA $94.12
Charlotte $95.46
Jas
Picking up a pair of 2.5 carat ear studs this afternoon from a FB in Ft. Worth. $1,500. They would cost a minimum of 6-7K in a store. I used to only fantasize about getting stuff like this.
Not glittering today…
Is the high degree of negative correlation recently seen between headline U.S. stock market index movements and gold prices atypical?
Extracted from the May 28, 2008 edition of Richard’s Remarks
Gold down, silver down, oil down (maybe), copper down, sugar down, cotton down, rice down, wheat down, CRB Commodity Index down — what the devil is going on? Is the world deflating? Or is the world just taking a “time out?” My guess — a time out. There were too many up-spikes, too much leverage, too much hysteria, too much hype. Give it a rest.
Gold — Worried about gold? Don’t be. Like most of the commodities, gold is “cooling it.” The correction continues in gold, and we can see it clearly on the weekly gold chart below.
At its March high gold got too far away from its 40-week moving average, and now it’s letting the 40-week MA catch up to its current price. The weekly histograms are now close to turning up, and the slow stochastics at the bottom of the chart appear to be scraping the bottom.
Personally, I’d buy gold here before I sold it. I think we saw the low for gold on May 1 when June gold hit a low of 849. The 40-week moving average for June gold stands at 843. So 843-849 — that should be about the low area for gold.
Sit tight.
Get some sun.
Stop worrying.
Exhibit A: Why diamonds are a bad investment item.
Resale value is hard to ascertain, for the layman.
Diamonds are pretty. And throwing some gas money into diamonds is better than throwing gas money into the latest video craze from Asia. Go for it Tx!! I’ll get you the popcorn tiara to wear with it.
Hey Neil, got popcorn?
Sometimes you just need to spend a little and enjoy life. My wife and I are having our 25th anniversary this year and decided to make it ‘gold’. She bought me a beautiful watch with a band made of gold nuggets (from the gold country)to match my wedding ring. I had an 18kt diamond ring made for her by Victor Velyan and also bought her a set of 22kt gold earings. We did our share to stimulate the economy; we’ve been avid savers, raised 4 kids and now it’s time we enjoyed spending something on us.
even my husband urged me to buy these. I hesitated for a bit. When you can get a guy to see the trade (ha), it’s a good one.
Diamonds are a woman thing. We’re hardwired to want them.
Tx-
The day YOU have to justify buying yourself a diamond or three is the day you should hang it all up and just dig a hole.
Glitter in good health–for ALL of us!
My wife and I are having our 25th anniversary this year and decided to make it ‘gold’.
————————-
Congratulations!
After raising 4 kids and saving over the years…not to mention celebrating your 25th anniversary, you certainly deserve it. Enjoy!
Diamonds are liquid, but not fungible. It’s the fungible assets that are attracting speculation currently. I’m bearish on diamonds as an investment overall. Txchick is making money because of people who don’t know the value of what they’re selling.
I’ll never sell them unless I’m homeless.
I have diamonds from the 1800’s passed down to me. They are incredible to wear because my GGrandma wore them. When I am dead they go to my niece.
–
Where does this put your personal inflation rate, Chick? Mine, of course, in negative because I am a big consumer of information.
Jas
Try DOW and see how the over flow through eats up your diminishing dollars or US Treasuries down 6% in the last month (nice buy for a minuscule yield) or the fact that gas at the pump is priced at $115/bbl of oil.
See if you can get the same deal on diamonds from Harry Winston.
Dow had a 15% increase in raw material and jumped prices 20%, the demand is there for finished products. TIVO sales hit a record, people are buying them to stay at home entertainment. TV sales are projected to increase.
You had better start checking some other data points before it bites you in the ass. The collapse in the USTs should give you a pretty good idea that you might be wrong.
–
“You had better start checking some other data points before it bites you in the ass.”
Looks like you are the one with smart-ass here. I have been short 110 Puts on 10-year and 100 Puts on Bonds as well and short 120 Calls on 10-year and 125 calls on Bonds. So, I know what my risks and rewards are. I am still ahead for the month of May in my UST speculative positions.
“The collapse in the USTs should give you a pretty good idea that you might be wrong.”
Please keep calling for “the collapse in the USTs” because Wall Streeters and inflationists have been calling it for at least 4 years. My record in forecasting USTs is second to none and far superior to the Bond King. Maybe, one of these days I would be proven wrong, but until then I will stick to my guns. I do know how to hedge my risk if that becomes necessary. I respect the markets and at times more than willing to take a loss for a period as needed.
When it comes to the USTs keep your smart ass to yourself because I don’t need help from inflationists, or Wall Streeters.
Jas
b-b-b-booyaa
for those keeping score at home:
hoz and chick have made me more moneys than Jassy Babbie..
somtimes you seem human Jas, then one of these posts comes out. I like the viceral response though.
–
“hoz and chick have made me more moneys than Jassy Babbie.. “
BS. I am NOT here to give speculative advice, in case your clouded brain hasn’t figured that out yet. My advice has remained unchanged since July 1998:
Avoid Scams!
USTs
Gold
Swiss franc
My target for Swiss was $1.0 and now I am net short Swiss franc in my speculative positions (short 105 calls).
“somtimes you seem human Jas”
I am always human and subject to err in my forecasts and lose in my speculations but I am not going to take garbage from anyone here, especially, inflationists who don’t understand the real impact of the Housing Bubble Burst. There are time lags in the economy and people get all excited for no good reasons. Deflation is coming, the only question that remains is this year or next.
Jas
Jas always lets us know when he’s making money, and he’s been as quiet as a church mouse, lately…
–
“Jas always lets us know when he’s making money, and he’s been as quiet as a church mouse, lately…”
I am NOT a trader. When was the last time that traders here talked about their losses?!
I take long-term positions and DO NOT trade often. So, there isn’t much to talk about most of the time. I am big-time short Fraudentials and Hopebuilders via naked short calls and long-term puts. I make money when these Scams go down and lose when they go up. Got it?
Jas
I miss the kinder, gentler Jas that would pat himself so hard on the back in 3rd person singular, that you knew it had to leave a mark…
Jas I don’t give a rats ass if you make money! I am pointing out that the deflationist policy that you favor has flown out the window.
You do not follow TIC data, you certainly don’t know the bond market or you would not be recommending to an investor that USTs will yield 2%.
Selling ‘out of the money puts’ for a way to be long is stupid, bonds made a 12 pt run and have come back 7 pts. What do you make a pt and a half in time decay, whoopde friggindo. You missed the move and took the majority of the risk.
hopefully negative. I don’t feel any squeeze at all
–
Smart people know how to get the most for their money. Dumb-asses always make poor choices and complain.
I like Costco pizza (I only go to Costco 5-6 times a year) and some dumb-asses here think that it is “cheap and dirty.” So be it. We all eat some junk food and I eat lot less than most. I like steaks, potatoes, salad and red wine.
Jas
I like Costco pizza too. They have huge bake at home ones now for $10. They’d feed 4 people.
Costco and Amazon are IMO the two best companies in America.
I live alone. I overspend for food because everything is sized for couples and families. Other than business travel (self-employed) and my addiction to eating well, my personal inflation rate is flat.
txchick57, what’s your email? I have a question for you offline…
gymnastgal32 at yahoo dot com
Those are some big ear rocks tx. Buy a pink diamond and you have a beautiful ring.
Now I want a bargain in diamonds.
Private party on Ebay. Verify the GIA certificate first and pay by credit card subject to authentication after. Anyone who thinks diamonds hold their “value” should check out some of these auctions to disabuse themselves of that notion. But for the magpies among us, it’s excellent pickings!
Diamonds are a totally visceral purchase, NOT an investment. Sort of like guys and BBQ grills– only an order of magnitude more expensive. (”Investment” is what we women use to justify the gift…but we know it ain’t.)
Diamonds are a totally visceral purchase, NOT an investment.(”Investment” is what we women use to justify the gift…but we know it ain’t.)
True enough, but stacked up against other retail/luxury purchases–they can come out on top.
I inherited a high quality platinum/diamond ring and had it re-appraised. Went up about 300% in replacement value over the decades since my grandparents bought it.
What was revealing is I thought about the boats, gadgets, motorhome and many luxury cars they bought over the years which–when you think about it, are all in the junk heap/land fill now, yet they spent a small fortune on these things. On the other hand, here’s this gorgeous ring that gave my Grandmother much pleasure, took very little maintenance and actually held it’s value very well over the years.
DOC
Nobody here ever mentions what they get for their used diamonds.
got some to sell?
Hey Txchick,
Understand your excitment, but, just in case, ask the entities you’re purchasing from if these diamonds are “fracture filled,” “clarity enhanced” or “yehuda treated.” (google the terms for more info). Basically, they take larger diamonds with cracks, voids, pits, etc., and fill these cracks with molten glass, then re-polish them. Not too sexy to find out you got scammed later if you get em’ appraised by a G.I.A. professional (glass-filled voids are detectable under magnification). If the sellers play stupid when you ask, tell them you want to get the stones looked at before you pull the trigger.
I was looking at a 1.53 carat diamond on craigslist, called the guy and asked him if there was any mention of fracture filling or clarity enhanced, sure enough, he said “oh, yeah, there might have been a mention of that.” Deal killer, right there.
To me, it’d be like buying a Lambourghini with a Yugo engine under the hood…looks great, but ultimately it ain’t worth s**t IMO.
These stones are all over ebay, craigslist and even mall stores–and most of these folks either don’t know THEY got scammed, or they don’t disclose.
DOC
Château d’If?
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1683#more-1683
Applebees is closing its restaurants at the following locations and laying off a total of 1,071 employees by the end of this month:
1238 West Imperial Highway, La Habra
24872 Madison Ave., Murrieta
1021 N. Milliken Ave., Ontario
107 Fletcher Parkway, El Cajon
10709 Foothill Blvd., Rancho Cucamonga
12044 Amargosa Road, Victorville
12375 Limonite Ave., Mira Loma
12600 Day St., Moreno Valley
16867 Sierra Lakes Parkway, Fontana
19201 Bear Valley Road, Apple Valley
2046 Redlands Blvd, Redlands
2146 Vista Way, Oceanside
3820 Mulberry, Riverside
3956 Grand Ave., Chino
7510 Hazard Center Drive, San Diego.
Ouch….especially since the end of this month is 2 days from now.
Nuts! I wish they’d close the one near where I live.
amen that place is horrible
applebees,chilis,tgi fridays, and the outback are all
disgusting imo
at least for living in nyc you get some good eats and not mass produced garbage for the masses
it boggles my mind when tourist flock to applebees in times square.
come all the way to nyc and eat the same slop they eat back in west bumble f&&k
That’s a bunch of locations in Inland Empire & Inland Empire-adjacent, where the $12 meal is no longer affordable…
Applebee’s, TGIFriday’s, Chili’s, Golden Corral, Outback, Baker’s Square are all lousy, unhealthy chain restaurants that should have shut their doors long ago.
So true. Most entrees have well over 1000 calories, some even approach 2000. I usually don’t care for Doonesbury, but I always get a kick when he lampoons these calorie bomb factories.
We stopped at Subway for a quick meal last night and I couldn’t believe how far they’ve fallen. It’s now an appalling 3rd-rate imitation of Quizno’s, but they don’t even have a philly steak or reuben. It really sucked - righteously - and though I saw they’re still using “Jared” as a spokesman he must be back up to 350 lb by now.
You must go to different Subways than I do.
First, in my area, Subway has never had reubens but still has cheese steaks.
Subway has always had less ‘premium’ ingredients than Quiznos. But Subway is easy to do cheaply, you get way more food, there are numerous legitimately healthy options, and you can load up all the vegetables you want. Try doing that at Quiznos! And try getting a filling meal at Quiznos for under $9-10.
Thank you, God of Subway
Try getting a good roll anywhere in the US with the exception of the Bronx.
Subway brand sandwiches are wretched.
“Thank you, God of Subway”
You must be a Subway owner because “NOBODY” in their right mind would think that God had anything to do with that crap food.
I should have stuck to their old menu & gotten the cold cut san. Their imitation of Quizno’s is pretty bad.
It could be the store, too. Every single table was still covered with crumbs…ugh.
The chow at those places is VILE.
also closed most of their Oregon locations.
No loss to me–I never go there–but I feel for the employees, who got no notice, apparently.
whoops, I meant Chilis, not Applebees….though my message would hold true for them as well…
“Applebees is closing its restaurants at the following locations and laying off a total of 1,071 employees by the end of this month”
11 of the 15 closings are in the IE. Not at all surprizing as the IE overbuilt and put up exessive shops ,malls, new chain stores from 2004-2008 along with all those new housing tracts. Every chain operation is bleeding and running in the red now out in IE as their residents are bleeding to death from commuting gas costs AND ToTAL DISAPPEARANCE OF mew MONEY DUE TO CATASTROPHIC HOUSING PRICE DECLINES.
I come from a retail small business background and know firsthand the effects of a bad recession and consumer cutback in spending ( was a small business owner during especially bad 1981 recession).
Only immigrant-run mom and pop shops employing auntie, grandma, siblings and eating steamed rice in back of the shop will survive, barely.
wow hoz, I never ate at applebutts but that is mind blowing in it’s numbers.
To echo the rest of the vocal crowd, good riddance. The food, the atmosphere, and service are all foul beyond description.
I’m glad to see not even exurbanites are willing to pay $15 for a terrible meal anymore. Perhaps there is hope?
I suppose this will cause a glut in the “pieces of flair” market.
Of all the lousy, crummy chain restaurants in America Applebee’s and Subway are the worst. My question is where do they get the lettuce at Subway? It tastes like garbage.
They get it from the dumpsters at Applebees..
good day
i finally hit a homerun with V
bought @ 75 it is close to $86
long time coming
did you dump it yet?
YES @ 86.50
wow, nice werk!
Question for the traders:
If a stock has 27% of it’s float shorted, is that considered a high percentage??
Thanks.
yes
Thanks hoz. Maybe I see a squeeze going on right now.
Anybody have this happening at gas stations in their locale?
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2008/05/halfgallon_pricing_to_hit_gas.html
Half-gallon pricing to hit gas stations soon
New York state Agriculture Commissioner Patrick Hooker today announced that gas stations with non-digital fuel dispensers can apply for half-gallon pricing, since older equipment cannot compute prices in excess of $3.999.
Signs advertising fuel prices must still advertise the price for a full gallon of fuel, but the price displayed on the pump would be half the per-gallon price.
Y$4K
Why can’t they just drop the idiotic 0.9 cents idea?
Big news — bubble reporter who previously supported renting decides to buy when moving from NY to DC.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/business/28leonhardt.html?em&ex=1212206400&en=5cf63d127f4d4c14&ei=5087%0A
“Throughout the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, the average rent ratio nationwide hovered between 10 and 14. In the last few years, though, it broke through that historical range and hit almost 19 by the time the housing market peaked, in 2006.”
“And while home prices — and rent ratios — have always been higher on the coasts, they reached whole new levels recently. In the Washington area, the ratio went above 20. In Boston, New York, Los Angeles and south Florida, it topped 25. In Northern California, it approached 35, higher than it had been in any city, at any point on record.”
But in the Washington area, this has now changed. Not a good deal, but a decent one.
“In the neighborhoods where we were looking, two-bedroom condominiums were selling for $400,000 and being rented for about $2,100 a month, which makes for a rent ratio of 16. Four-bedroom houses were selling for $700,000 and being rented for almost $4,000, which makes for a rent ratio of 15. No matter the price range, pretty much every apples-to-apples comparison produced a similar ratio.”
“Historically, this is still a bit high. But it’s very different from where the market was just a couple of years ago. With house prices having fallen over the last two years and rents continuing to rise, the decision became a much closer call. We would now have to spend only a little more each month for the privilege of owning.”
Unfortunately, NY is still in bubble land.
How much of the decision is rational and how much is a”Wow, housing is SO cheap here,” gut reaction.
The article seems pretty rational. He still wouldn’t buy in NY or California, and believes prices will fall farther in DC as well.
But, because a house is a place to live not an investment, and prices are close enough to fair value, he’s willing to take that loss to move into a place he plans to stay.
In any event, the article provides hope that those “priced out forever” who want a house as a long term place to live may not have so long to wait in some parts of the country. Maybe next year. Maybe late this year if banks start dumping the REOs.
My immediate reaction: 400k is too freakin much for a condo. Second reaction: The supply of tenants willing to pay $4k per month for any property is so small it doesn’t offer any insight into the overall market. Now some analysis: 16 is 14% higher than 14, the high limit he cites for the last 30 years. If that $400k condo is 14% overvalued, then it should be valued at 351,000. 49,000 of potential risk represents 24 months at 2,100 rent. We haven’t even started talking about HOA fees. I wouldn’t do it. $351k is still too freakin much for a condo.
I noticed there are a lot of trading professionals posting on this blog. I need a new online brokerage account. I’ve been with e-trade for a lot of years and they recently started charging me fees, which will eat up my modest gains.
My portfolio is currently under $5,000, but I plan to grow it in the future (obviously).
Any suggestions for good online accounts for small time players would be greatly appreciated.
Regards!
I’m not a professional. I’m also in the same boat as you dollar wise.
Txchick recommended MB Trading and a couple others to me a few months ago (Think or Swim was another), and I went with MB. My needs are few, the commissions can be very cheap, and I’m very happy with them so far. Good luck with your endeavors.
The last time I did my own stock transactions, I lost a fortune.
But my family broker can do the same in a minute.
I’m in Corn Chips.
Zecco is not bad. 10 free trades per month with a minimum balance of $2500. $4.50 per trade over 10 in a month. Option trades are $4.50 + $0.50 per contract. There is a monthly option of $8 or $20 for added daytrading tools. I’ve been happy with them.
The June or July issue of Kiplingers usually rates the brokers. On their site they have a quiz you can take to match up a broker to your needs - its on the simplistic side and doesn’t include all brokers, but its not a bad place for a novice to research.
SEC seen proposing risk rankings for bonds: report
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to propose rules that would force ratings agencies to rank complex financial instruments according to their risk level, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
The ratings agencies oppose such a move, which would distinguish complex securities like collateralized debt obligations from more traditional ones like municipal bonds, the paper said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2937096420080529?rpc=44
does anyone have a guess as to why the rating agency’s oppose this?
from the link:
The new rules would force ratings agencies like Moody’s (MCO.N: Quote, Profile, Research), McGraw Hill Cos Inc (MHP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Fitch Ratings to rate not just the credit-worthiness of bonds, but also their volatility and whether they are “structured” securities.
That’s funny. AFAIC, volatility and how bonds are structures (if it increases risk) affect the “credit-worthiness” of the bonds. Bottom line: how likely is it that you’ll get your principal back, and how likely is it you’ll get the return (interest) as well? All of that should be included in the ratings.
My guess is that they oppose this because they won’t be as able to foist complete garbage upon pension funds, etc. who rely on the ratings agencies to help determine risk.
Quite frankly, it’s a wonder the ratings agencies are even in business, because I think they are largely to blame for the entire credit mess.
Congress
How To Pay For That Housing Bill
http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/28/housing-congress-frank-biz-beltway-cx_jz_0529housing.html?partner=yahootix
What Oil Bubble?
WSJ
Oil Exporters Are Unable To Keep Up With Demand
By Neil King Jr. and Spencer Swartz
“The world’s top oil producers are proving unable to put more barrels on thirsty world markets despite sky-high prices, a shift that defies traditional market logic and looks set to continue.
Fresh data from the U.S. Department of Energy show the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world’s top oil exporters fell 2.5% last year, despite a 57% increase in prices, a trend that appears to be holding true this year as well.
There are several reasons behind the net-export decline. Soaring profits from high-price crude have fueled a boom in oil demand in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, leaving less oil for export. At the same time, aging fields and sluggish investments have caused exports to drop significantly in Mexico, Norway and, most recently, Russia. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut production early last year and didn’t move to boost supplies again until last fall.
In all, according to the Energy Department figures, net exports by the world’s top 15 suppliers, which account for 45% of all production, fell by nearly a million barrels to 38.7 million barrels a day last year. The drop would have been steeper if not for heightened output in less-developed countries such as Angola and Libya, whose economies have yet to become big energy consumers.”
What it fails to mention is world oil consumption is up 2MM bbl/day.
Note to self: get on waiting list for Chevy Volt or other plug in Hybrids.
What was last year’s total petro production? That’s the key figure. Unable to produce more looks like “peak oil.”
that is not good. I also think its deflationary as it takes money out of my wallet to pay for gas so I will buy less everywere else.
Inflation is if I got a big raise or decided to borrow big money and then get in a bidding war with other consumers with all my new cash.
Thats my thinking anyway.
Inflation is also a company that has to pay 15% more and raises prices 20%, like Milk or Chocolate. Or as is happening currently, foreign holders of dollars are buying commodities and hoarding in anticipation of a weaker dollar and rent scarcity of goods. This creates inflation in the line, everybody tacks on a few bips.
In a 3oz box of whole wheat crackers the most expensive ingredient is the box. There are 40lbs in a bushel of wheat. A $2 increase in a bushel of wheat does not add $0.50 to the price of a loaf of bread.
It’ll only look like an oil bubble through the rear view mirror, after demand crashes in response to crushingly high prices.
TDAmeritrade seems to be in the “deposit raising” mood as I received an offer from them for the first time I can remember. 3-month CD at 3.1% APY for minimum deposits of $10K and max of $100K. I have stocks and mutual funds with them, fortunately they aren’t in some ultra short high yield money market fund
Or maybe they think the FED will hike rates much faster than anyone else imagines.
you can get 3.3% at ING Direct
“3-month CD at 3.1% APY for minimum deposits of $10K and max of $100K. ”
Does this mean 3 month t bills and notes will go up too?
I live in the Inland Empire (northern territories) and what becomes of the governments of Bakersfield, Visalia, Fresno, Sacramento and others along the way, that used “mark to model” accounting with all of these stillborn and/or finished-unoccupied housing developments?
They’ve already spent their anticipated profits and are in debt up to their eyeballs, how much longer before they start failing?
hoz: give me your best trade!
http://www.lussori.com/chopard-jewelry-flawless-diamond-ring-17-carat-d-if-emerald-cut-platinum.html
this one actually causes me pain.
I like emerald cuts, I have never seen one as pretty more than 11 carats!
I’ll think about the best trade, it might be that the stone would be a fine addition - just get it remounted. Just kidding - I would never steal your find.
Hoz, I adore fancy colored diamonds but they go for way too much. Green diamonds are resonable. I’d settle for a rare colored padparasha sap.
Like this one?
http://cgi.ebay.com/28-85ct-Natural-Padparadscha-Sapphire-Diamond-Ring_W0QQitemZ140235358220QQihZ004QQcategoryZ92859QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
Yep, like that one.
I will not sleep a wink knowing that beauty is on the loose.
Tomorrow, lets look up alexandrites (rare)
Pretty stones!
Prudential - a piece of the rock. lol
Storms on the Horizon
Remarks before the Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, California
May 28, 2008
Purging rampant inflation and a debased currency requires administering a harsh medicine. We have been there, and we know the cure that was wrought by the FOMC under Paul Volcker. Even the perception that the Fed is pursuing a cheap-money strategy to accommodate fiscal burdens, should it take root, is a paramount risk to the long-term welfare of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve will never let this happen. It is not an option. Ever. Period.
The way we resolve these liabilities—and resolve them we must—will affect our own well-being as well as the prospects of future generations and the global economy. Failing to face up to our responsibility will produce the mother of all financial storms. The warning signals have been flashing for years, but we find it easier to ignore them than to take action. Will we take the painful fiscal steps necessary to prevent the storm by reducing and eventually eliminating our fiscal imbalances? That depends on you.
I mean “you” literally. This situation is of your own creation. When you berate your representatives or senators or presidents for the mess we are in, you are really berating yourself. You elect them. You are the ones who let them get away with burdening your children and grandchildren rather than yourselves with the bill for your entitlement programs.
Of late, we have heard many complaints about the weakness of the dollar against the euro and other currencies. It was recently argued in the op-ed pages of the Financial Times [3] that one reason for the demise of the British pound was the need to liquidate England’s international reserves to pay off the costs of the Great Wars. In the end, the pound, it was essentially argued, was sunk by the kaiser’s army and Hitler’s bombs. Right now, we—you and I—are launching fiscal bombs against ourselves. You have it in your power as the electors of our fiscal authorities to prevent this destruction. Please do so.
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2008/fs080528.cfm
Major T. J. “King” Kong: Stay on the bomb run, boys! I’m gonna get them doors open if it harelips ever’body on Bear Creek!
Last time there wasn’t even a libertarian candidate or any 3rd party candidate in our congressional district.
“The Fed said it will conduct three auctions in June, with each one making $75 billion available in short-term cash loans. Banks can bid for a slice of the available funds. It would mark the latest round in a program that the Fed launched in December to help banks overcome credit problems so that they will keep lending to customers.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080529/fed_credit_crisis.html?.v=3
________________________________________________________________
I don’t want to imply that things are bad, but I understand a full roll of 2-ply t.p. will fetch you a Billion, as collateral.
Assisted-living residents may face eviction after bankruptcy & foreclosure
Bizarroworld, exeter, upstate NYers:
How’d your counties come in for April (nysar.com) I’m sitting here shaking my head, incredulous. Sales for Onondaga virtually flat, April YOY, sales price up 9.6%. What is keeping this beast going?
Carrie, I just looked at NYSAR’s numbers for Onandaga. Don’t dispair. Sales are still down 17% over April2006. I don’t watch the prices at all. Prices are so obviously skewed, are rearward looking. The only number that matters is transactions and they are down in every county measured YoY.
The key idea here is Starve The Beast and that has been my mantra since I started following this thing in 2004. I do whatever I can to discourage anybody from buying. Look, the direction of $$$ is away from residential real estate and it ain’t coming back. Sit tight and don’t trust the REIC. The declining transactions is all that matters. The price will take care of itself.
Yeah…. I’m that confident.
Hey CarrieAnn, here’s the game now and anyone can play… Sorry, had to do that since your name always brings back that classic Hollies tune. Rochester had a spike in foreclosures and sales are down yoy, but prices are up:
Monroe County had 335 new foreclosures in March, the most upstate and fourth-most statewide, according to RealtyTrac, a California company that tracks foreclosure-related actions across the nation.
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008805270338
And sales of single-family home sales are down 14.2 percent for the year in Monroe County, according to the statistics released by the Genesee Region Real Estate Information Service, a subsidiary of the association.
The number of homes listed for sale in April decreased by 1.6 percent and the median sale price increased by 4.4 percent compared to April 2007.
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080516/BUSINESS/80516012/1001
In this area most don’t believe there was a bubble, so they will overpay even though there are more homes on the market with foreclosures included. I am looking for a place and I see that fairly priced homes sell at asking, but there are plenty that stay on the market for quite some time. I think the deals will be made later in the summer once the parent buyers have secured their school district. I am still amazed that homes continue to increase in value with a stagnant population and a shrinking manufacturing base. I’m as surprised as you are.
One of the more obnoxious things about Rochester, besides the property taxes, are the home rental prices. This is one location where renting is on par with buying, especially in the 150-200k range. Renting a 3 BR, 1.5 bath inner circle suburban will cost 1100-1500, while purchasing can cost less monthly, including the taxes.
Thanks guys for getting back to me. I try to stick w/the sales numbers, exeter, but that 9.6% sales price increase got under my skin. Keep coaching me though!
Bizarro, you can make all the fun of my “screen” name that you want to. I kind of get a kick out of it myself.
I hear ya on the rental SFHs. I read what people are paying in the zips w/a little more social excitement and job opportunities included in the package and I just shake my head. Although because of the low supply that’s behind our high prices, I’ve been feeling very lucky to have found my rental before more people decided they wanted one too.
random observation—just got back from Trader Joe’s and WinCo. Both were hopping.
Overheard a conversation at TJ’s between a store employee and a gal who was looking for something in particular. She lives an hour away…yikes…and thus comes in once or twice a month.
Trivia about something not trivial (IMO):
The true rate of what the Libor should be has been in the news a lot lately. But my concern is more of how much money is influenced by the Libor.
Last week articles posted here talked about the interest rate of $62 trillion being tied to the Libor. This week articles posted here said this amount is $350 trillion. Today’s WSJ (page A1) says the amount is $90 trillion.
These are some widely different numbers involving many trillions of dollars. I sense that nobody on the planet has a clue as to how much money is actually connected to the Libor.
I suspect some very Interesting Times await.
and common working people had only a Sears credit card to buy installments of Sears goods. Heck, we were so poor that we shopped thru the Sears catalogue and the items purchases, in most cases, were school clothing.
I recently watched PBS on immigrant Asian families and in So. CA and I was shocked. The family/community mindset was amazing! The Asian families has a support of other recent immigrant families that demanded of their children that at least part of their play time was devoted to school study (in this case it was math). The parents, when they got together in group social settings, would brag about the accomplishment of their children from an educational standpoint. I believe this report was Asian families in Monterey Park, CA (LA). The young lady narrating the piece explain, the the atmosphere of required accomplishment was so pervasive that no one challenged it. The children thought they were willing to sacrifice most of their play time to study was better than if they were in their home countries, otherwise 100% study.
Now, I am not an educational professional, and I am not sure how these family/group pressures are good for children, however, I received not encouragement to study. As a child, a lot of my time with brothers and friends was involved in playing war games and TV.
I always wondered whether sucessful kids were smarter than me. Now I know, it wasn’t necessarily intelligence, but family pressures demanding success and intensive advanced training.
O well, if I learn this lesson, I can use my knowledge in my next life.
lol
Uh oh. Cocaine Larry Kudlow said oil is collapsing. The peak oil crowd might just be right.
Cummins Northwest LLC.
Modest price adjustment of 8.9% on exhaust products begins June 1st, 2008…
see no price inflation, just adjustments to reality.
“If we can’t think for ourselves, if we’re unwilling to question authority, then we’re just putty in the hands of those in power. But if the citizens are educated and form their own opinions, then those in power work for us.”
Carl Sagan
Sad to say that there seems to be more putty than educated opinion of late, but that can change.
The adjustments come when the contractor that buys the exhaust has to raise prices to cover the new and higher loan amount.
Then again some people will just do without an exhaust and that is hedonic inflation. Or the government will determine that the exhaust works much better than last years exhaust so it is worth more.
funny how the exhaust products are target numero uno on the green policy front: if you dictate, they must spend. If they must spend, you must raise price.
so simple a green peace monkey could do it.
i meant green piece wrench monkey..
Late in the day I know but I wondered if anyone else noted this.
Today in WAMU I noticed that they’ve placed big purple placards in front of every teller window touting the FDIC insurance and the limits of same.
Calming the masses or covering of arses?
here’s the weird thing dude…
you actually go into banks, thats so..industrial base. Last time I was in a bank, I mean actually inside one…bout a year ago.
So to answer your question, advertising?
Radio ad “RE doubles every 10 years so talk to your local professional RE agent now” This ad was immediatly followed by ” use your government rebate at lowes and buy something for your home and increase its investment value”
US banks likely to fail as bad loans soar
By Joanna Chung and Saskia Scholtes in New York
Published: May 29 2008 20:43 | Last updated: May 29 2008 20:43
US banks set aside a record $37.1bn to cover losses on real estate loans and other credits during the first quarter in a sign of the growing economic pain being caused by the global credit crisis, regulators said on Thursday.