The Housing Bubble

The Bradenton Herald reports from Florida. “Foreclosure filings in May for Manatee County numbered 446, down slightly from April’s record-setting 495. By noon Friday, filings for the month had already reached 431, according to Manatee County Clerk of Court. Just four hours later, 15 more foreclosures had been filed, bringing the number to 446.”

“In addition to short sales taking longer to close, agents also have to be persistent in order to get negotiators from lenders loss mitigation departments to call them back. The departments are swamped as more and more homes move toward foreclosure.”

“‘A lot of people that were trying to get answers on short sales end up in foreclosure,’ said foreclosure specialist May Aston. ‘The sad part is the bank probably would have gotten more on a short sale than they end up getting on a foreclosure sale.’”

“Just because a home is a foreclosure or short sale doesn’t mean it’s the best deal around, agents caution. ‘A lot of people think that if it’s a foreclosure they can steal it,’ said Ron Cornette, director of training and marketing for Wagner Realty.”

“Extremely low offers on houses priced aggressively doesn’t do the buyer any favors. ‘If people are reasonable, they have a better chance of getting a great deal on the house because many are already priced below market value,’ Aston said.”

“This week, the City Council allowed two downtown high-rise condo projects another year’s grace, so the blueprints will gather more dust on the shelf. The makeover of the Pink Palace is on hold, and the Promenade at Riverwalk completed one of three planned buildings before deciding to scale back.”

“Next door, 210 Watermark, formerly known as Main Street, tried to convert from apartments to condos at the tail end of the boom. That failed. It’s back to rentals.”

“In April, the city granted Riviera Southshore another year’s grace, too. That seems quaint today. The developer went belly-up, defaulted on the bank loan and lost the property in a foreclosure. The once-promising $400 million revitalization project on 28 acres sandwiched between the Manatee River and Manatee Avenue in east Bradenton looks like a goner.”

“Wells Fargo hopes to sell the land to another developer. We also hope one shows up. Neighbors worry the land will be an eyesore for years.”

The Tampa Tribune. “Pasco County’s taxable property value dropped by $3 billion - or nearly 10 percent - during a yearlong period ending Jan. 1, while new construction amounted to half of what it was in the previous year, Property Appraiser Mike Wells said.”

“The value of waterfront property, particularly in the Hudson neighborhoods of Sea Pines, Beacon Square and Embassy Hills, is rapidly declining. Selling prices in those subdivisions soared from about $100,000 in the mid-1990s to around $500,000 at the height of the market two years ago, Wells said.”

“Middle class” neighborhoods in central Pasco, where homes sold for $200,000 to $300,000 a couple of years ago, are seeing values drop as well.”

“Contrary to some national analysts, Wells predicts the real estate market in Pasco will bottom out this year or early next spring. ‘My view is that homes are not going to drop another 25 percent,’ in value, he said. ‘If I was in the market for a home, I would be out there.’”

The St Peteresburg Times. “The housing boom giveth, the housing slump taketh away. After four years of double-digit increases, Hillsborough County property values slid 4 percent for 2008, property appraiser Rob Turner said Friday.”

“It was the first decline since the real estate slump of 1992, and another sign that local governments, used to living large on the bounty of the building boom, will need to slim down this year.”

“‘It’s a significantly different environment than what they’ve had to feed from in past years,’ Turner said.”

“Hillsborough property isn’t shedding value in isolation. Across the bay, Pinellas County reported that property values dipped 8.5 percent the past year. This year’s valuations are based on sales as of Jan. 1. So even though most houses are fetching less on the market in the first half of 2008, those declines won’t be reflected on the tax rolls until 2009.”

The Sun Sentinel. “In a stark confirmation of Palm Beach County’s housing collapse, the taxable value of homes and other properties plummeted throughout the county in the sharpest decline in three decades.”

“‘It’s probably the worst we’ve experienced, and I’ve worked in this office since 1974,’ said Palm Beach County Property Appraiser Gary Nikolits.”

“Two years ago, the county’s 2006 property values shot up 24 percent at the peak of a five-year real estate boom. Now, home prices and government tax collections are in a tailspin.”

“‘We don’t have any indication it’s going to turn around,’ Nikolits added, noting there’s a ‘huge inventory of available properties for sale’ as well as foreclosures coming on the market that are dragging down prices.”

The Palm Beach Post. “Once-popular nightclub and restaurant Gatsby’s Palm Beach closed this week. The business was profitable until the local housing boom turned to bust, said Steve Marino, VP of marketing for the Gatsby’s chain.”

“Many of the apartment complexes lining Village Boulevard were turned into condos at the top of the boom, pushing out the younger renters. Now, as the real estate market scrapes bottom, many of those converted condos sit vacant.”

“‘That area in the last two years has declined a lot,’ Marino said. ‘A lot of those apartments went condo conversion, and a lot of them are empty.’”

“The value of Broward County property dropped by more than 5 percent in the past year, one of the largest dips ever recorded and a dramatic reversal after years of double-digit gains, according to a county estimate used to set property taxes.”

“Property Appraiser Lori Parrish warned residents - and municipal number-crunchers - to brace for a far greater drop next year, when foreclosures and reduced real estate prices will take full effect.”

“‘Based on sales for the first five months of this year, it’s going to be a whole lot worse next year,’ Parrish said. ‘I’ve lived here for 50 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it.’”

“‘People are hurting, and we have a lot of belt-tightening to do,’ Hollywood Mayor Peter Bober said. ‘The challenge for all cities, not just ours, is to become leaner and more efficient. I think everyone knew the bubble was going to burst at some point. The pace was not sustainable.’”

The Miami Herald. “On Friday, Neisen Kasdin, head of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce’s downtown committee, told the assembled business people that progress has been made.”

“Workers, called downtown ‘ambassadors,’ patrol the streets, assisting visitors, shooing homeless people and reporting problems to police.”

“But banker Lianne Acebo was skeptical. ‘I go to downtown and I don’t see much change,’ she told Kasdin at Friday’s meeting.”

“At another session, about 20 chamber members discussed the shortage of ‘workforce housing.’ ‘We are a community of low-wage earners,’ said Michael Burnstine, outgoing chairman of the chamber’s workforce housing committee.”

“The region has been losing workers and some companies have rejected setting up shop here because of high home prices. A study commissioned by the chamber and unveiled earlier this month found that, even after recent price drops, the ’single-family home price of $306,100 remains unaffordable to approximately 85 percent of Miami-Dade County’s households.’”

The Naples News. “Ave Maria has become more affordable to more people. Hundreds of homes once reserved for low-income earners in the new town could now be sold to the next class of buyers. On Tuesday, Collier County commissioners approved the change with no discussion, as part of their summary agenda.”

“The town’s developers pushed to loosen the income requirements after struggling to find enough buyers for the Middlebrook community, where 326 homes are planned.”

“The community’s builder, Pulte Homes, has done everything it could to market the project to low-income buyers - even meeting with the Collier County Sheriff’s Office and Collier school district. But there has been little success.”

“Of the nearly 50 homes built at Middlebrook, 36 have sold and 32 of those were bought by Ave Maria University for rentals to faculty.”

“Naples attorney John Passidomo, who represented the town’s developers on the request, said what’s happening at Middlebrook is ‘a reflection of the market now.’”

“With a market slump, there are more affordably priced homes on the market that are competing with Middlebrook. At the same time, a credit crunch has made it tougher for lower-income earners to get financing, and their wages aren’t what they used to be in a slow economy, Passidomo said.”

“‘It’s a spiraling impact,’ he said.”

“In other action Tuesday, commissioners voted to indefinitely postpone a proposal to build affordable housing on county-owned land in the Bembridge planned unit development.”

“With homes on the market for under $100,000 in Golden Gate, Commission Chairman Tom Henning said it didn’t make sense to move forward with the project. ‘I have concerns about doing anything on this item because of the housing market,’ he said.”

“Fellow commissioners agreed unanimously, saying now is not the time to build more affordable housing.”

The News Leader. “Dan McCranie, a personal injury attorney in downtown Fernandina Beach, was unfamiliar with real estate law when Willie Mae Johnson walked into his office on April 26, 2007.”

“Johnson had in hand a final judgment notice saying her house would be sold for foreclosure at 11:30 a.m. May 2, the following Tuesday.”

“Johnson, 83 years old and suffering from glaucoma and cataracts, was nearly blind. She had owned her home on Division Street since 1949 and had raised five children there. She had not worked since 2001 and was receiving Social Security payments of $671 a month.”

“Over time, McCranie found that Johnson’s mortgage lender had filled out Johnson’s loan application for her, and falsified it so that it would appear to underwriters that she could afford a loan of $83,000. The broker also lied on the application about the age of the house, and falsely lowered the size of Johnson’s outstanding debt.”

“He inflated her current mortgage rate on the application from $450 to $778 to make it appear she could afford a higher payment, and lied about the value of her home, saying it was worth $225,000 when it was assessed at $76,000. The application also stated falsely that Johnson received rental income.”

“Why did Johnson sign those papers to re-mortgage her house? She was hoping to get $5,000 cash out of the deal to bury her daughter, who had died of cancer.”

“Johnson never received that $5,000. Her interest rate increased from 5.99 percent for the previous mortgage to a possible rate of 17.54 percent. Her monthly payment, before insurance or taxes, rose to more than she was getting from Social Security.”

“Lynn Drysdale, a Jacksonville consumer protection attorney, said one of the problems is that loans are sold to other mortgage companies, and brokers on the original loan don’t have to take responsibility for repayment.”

“‘The lender could care less if (Willie Mae Johnson) made minimum payments because they were selling loans,’ said Drysdale.”

“An increasing number of economists are…using words like ‘overshoot downward’ or ‘overcorrect.’ What they mean is that potential home buyers, glum where they once were giddy, are content to be sideline sitters.”

“Maybe they want to wring every cent from home sellers. Maybe they’re content to rent. The effect is the same: The recovery is postponed, less for reasons of supply and demand and more for reasons of mass psychology. ”

“There are good reasons to house hunt. Tampa’s median home price has plunged 26 percent from the peak in June 2006. Our median-priced home of about $170,000 is roughly three times local family income.”

“On the downside, recession fears sap buyer confidence and make renting more appealing. Though mortgage rates are low, banks are tight with terms.”

“You can deflate bubbles too much. Markets aren’t always rational. While they hash things out well in the long run, in the short run they’re often candidates for the funny farm.”