Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? More construction? “With the rest of the country still reeling from the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression, New York will today unveil fresh plans for its tallest residential tower. The Beekman Tower, a 76-storey, 867ft luxury apartment building that will loom over lower Manhattan, is a symbol of the unallayed appeal of the city and the continued ability of ambitious projects in the city to draw financing.”
“New York added 40,800 jobs in April compared with a year earlier, its economy grew by more than 3% in the first quarter, and house prices are largely holding up.”
“Rae Rosen, senior economist at the New York Fed, says the economy is still taking time to climb down from last year’s exuberant growth. ‘What we see right now is a gradual decelerating in the pace of growth and we expect that to continue throughout the year, slower and slower,’ she said. ‘Eventually we will hit… a decline, but right now we are well above zero.’”
More foreclosures? “The number of foreclosures rivals the number of home sales in some Bay State cities hit hardest by the current housing crisis.”
“Almost as many homes were foreclosed in Lawrence, 156, as were sold, 184, during the first four months of the year, according to the Warren Group, the Boston real estate tracker. More than 45 percent of all real estate transactions in the city are now bank seizures.”
“Dorchester saw 244 foreclosures compared to 340 sales during the first four months of the year, or 41 percent of the total. In some parts of the Brockton market, the number of foreclosures now outnumbers the number of sales.”
“‘It is certainly disturbing,’ said Thomas Callahan, head of the Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance. ‘It has the effect of depressing the market.’”
Lower prices? “Maine home sellers appear to have stopped holding out for top dollar. After months of decline in the number of houses sold, prices in April finally followed suit, with the median cost of a single-family home dropping by 11.3 percent compared to last year.”
“The number of houses sold dropped 23.1 percent for the month, compared to 2007. ‘I would agree that the market is in a process of correcting itself here in Maine,’ said Lou Demers, a Realtor with Maine Coast Properties.”
“‘My feeling is the real estate market moves on a collective mentality,’ Demers said. ‘I think what’s happening right now is buyers are hesitant to buy because they want to wait until we hit bottom. The question is where is the bottom? No one seems to know that.’”
Builder problems? “At least a dozen banks have filed lawsuits seeking payment and property from one of Iowa’s largest land developers.”
The mounting lawsuits against Oaks Development, owned by John C. Kline and Randy Walters, come as lenders meet and liens pile up against Regency Homes, which halted operations a month ago.”
“Don Neiman, a Des Moines bankruptcy attorney for nearly 40 years, said he’s never before seen the ‘depth and severity’ of the residential fallout now hitting central Iowa builders.”
“‘It’s not just the big people who will get caught. It’s going to be the smaller subcontractors and the suppliers who get scraped off’ with the foreclosure lawsuits, said Neiman. ‘They would end up receiving nothing. It’s amazing the number of limited liability companies that these builders either owned or controlled or were a percentage owner of. It’s going to take some time to put your arms around … to determine how deep this is.’”
“Firefighters are blaming construction materials used in newer houses for the speed with which fires are racing through the buildings - and giving them less time to battle the flames. Six firefighters were injured Sunday afternoon battling a fire in a Leesburg home in which lightweight construction materials - including vinyl siding, plywood and lightweight wood supports - were used.”
“An exhaustive report following the death of Prince William County firefighter Kyle Wilson last year highlighted lightweight construction as a reason the fire intensified so rapidly and was blamed as a factor in the death.”
“‘From a fire safety perspective, we know that lightweight construction is going to fail quicker that the traditional materials,’ said Melvin Byrne, division chief of the Virginia Department of Fire Programs and a Loudoun County volunteer firefighter.”
“However, because of the cost of materials, especially the skyrocketing price for lumber, lightweight materials are essential, he said. ‘Without lightweight construction, none of us would be able to afford a house.’”
Economic fallout? “The Canadian economy shrank unexpectedly for the first time in five years, according to figures released yesterday by Statistics Canada, raising alarm among some economists that the economy is on the verge of contracting.”
“It was the first quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2003, the federal agency said. ‘Certainly, you might argue that we are seeing the early signs of a recession,’ Ted Carmichael, chief economist of JP Morgan Canada said.”
“The U.S. slowdown has side-swiped Canadian manufacturers - especially those in Ontario - who export more than 70 per cent of their products across the border.”
“‘Anyone who thought that the downturn in the U.S. economy would not seriously impact Canada should have a look at the real GDP figures for the first quarter,’ TD Bank Financial Group stated in a report.”
“‘This might be the appropriate time to forget decoupling scenarios and revert to the old cliché of when the U.S. economy sneezes, Canada catches a cold,’ the report said.”
“The city will eliminate hundreds of positions as it copes with a budget shortfall and a slowdown in tax revenue, City Manager Dale Fisseler said in a letter to employees. ‘I am convinced that these budget cuts will require us to reduce the workforce by several hundred positions,’ Fisseler wrote.”
“Fort Worth is hardly alone in facing revenue shortfalls. State and local governments nationwide are struggling to make up for declining revenue and are considering layoffs, service cuts and other measures to make ends meet.”
“A recent study estimated that at least 27 states are facing a combined $47 billion in shortfalls next year. ‘The bursting of the housing bubble has reduced state sales tax revenue collections from sales of furniture, appliances, construction materials, and the like,’ the study stated.”
some foreclosures in 22151 N Va and some “under contract “signs
why not a sold ?
When we sold our house in nova, we had an “under contract” sign until the appraisal came through, then it was “sold”.
Anybody aware of an American city that doesn’t have more employees than it can pay for ?
fairfax co has a dept of womens affairs and folks planting trees !
top that
Pretty good! Threaten them with a budget cut and you’ll immediately hear about having to let go teachers, firemen and police. You won’t hear a word about this fluff or the 45 admin folks hired to keep the paperwork flowing. Amazing.
“The city will eliminate hundreds of positions as it copes with a budget shortfall and a slowdown in tax revenue, City Manager Dale Fisseler said in a letter to employees. ‘I am convinced that these budget cuts will require us to reduce the workforce by several hundred positions,’ Fisseler wrote.”
It is obviously painful to have layoffs. But look at it this way, if California had kept their budget balanced, the next few years would be less painful than they’re going to be. Eventually creditors are going to force some of the states and cities to stop spending. That slowdown of spending will be abrupt. Anyone recall the U-haul shortage in California in 1993/1994? I think we’ll see that again soon. Note: the current shortage is not of that magnitude.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
We’re looking to relocate. I hop on a plane tomorrow for St. Louis for an interview but since Mr. Jane already has an offer from Wash Univ, we’ve pretty much decided we’ll go anyways.
Now, I did put my resume on Monster a few months ago and when it comes to senior grants analysts and research administrators, the world is your oyster - if - you want to move to anywhere in bubble city CA, NY, the beltway, or Boston. Hell, the Rand Corp contacted me for something way out of classification. They sound desperate. But there are lots of great universities not in those locations and I’m sure they are being flooded with applicants.
Something tells me that U haul storage is going to get worse.
Jane,
Good luck.
Thanks,
We’ve been spending the afternoon on google earth looking at various univ towns with big medical centers outside of the super high cost of living centers, like St. Louis, Raleigh/Durham, Nashville, Denver, Omaha, Urbana, Atlanta, Austin, etc.
We may end up at Duke eventually but I think we’ll be better off financially and career-wise waiting it out in St. Louis then being stuck here in Davis. I want to go back to NIH research. USDA and DOE sponsored programs are not for me. CA state dept sponsors are a nightmare! Not mention those budgets will shrinking soon.
With the exceptions of REOs, prices in the DC metro area have, on average, only gone down 10-13%. There are still glaring examples of houses purchased for 150K in the 80s that they now want 600+ for, houses bought new less than 10 years ago and with no renovations since they they are asking for more than double, and the list goes on.
In the condo arena we have greater declines - say 20% - but they have a lot further to fall before they seem like a good deal. At least 10-15% of the more recent condo developments have switched to apartments - sorry - luxury apartments. People who paid outrageous sums for townhouses somehow don’t understand that you can get a condo for 100K less and a SFH for equal cost or say 50K more…. a 400K townhouse in Laurel… ha! They wish.
There is still widespread delusion that this is just a short downturn and prices will pick up soon, or better yet, that military relocations and the election in November will save the market. Apparently these people all clamoring to relocate here want to buy overpriced property and can easily sell their house wherever they happen to live now.
The “PGA Tour Grill” in Rockville just closed its doors. They were hopping last summer with live music and lots of drunk people on the outside patio. Just a generic place a bit nicer than a Friday’s with a sports bar on one side.
Rockville Towne Center is a bit of a disaster in so many ways.
I can’t recall what % of it’s overpriced condos are now low income housing, but I’m pretty sure it’s a loss of state, county, city, and private money.
The worst think about it in my mind, however, is it’s lack of inviting architecture. You don’t feel welcome unless you are already inside the Center… from the Pike and surrounding streets it just looks imposing. Kinda sad actually… a ghetto waiting to happen and it’s only about a year old.
Rockville Town Centre was a sucky place way back in the late ’80s when I worked nearby. A mistake that no one in the city or county government would ever admit to.
I like the beltway but have crossed that off the relocate list which is too bad as there are a lot of openings in that area in my field.
Smart move. What’s the true cost-of-living difference between St. Louis and D.C.? At least 50%, probably more. Would your salary be 50% higher in D.C.?
Ah, yes… I know this silliness all too well. “Everyone in Maryland/DC/NoVa is rich because of DC.” Right… as if they hand out free money to everyone in the area! Nope - the pay is decent, but the cost of living is stupidly high in this area. Maryland is also full of formerly $150K houses going for $400K+. Total madness!
ATLANTA:
8,022 GA homes are scheduled for foreclosure on June 3, with the majority of them located in the metro Atlanta area.
Memorial Day boating was down 50% at north Atlanta’s Lake Lanier, which is the nations most heavily trafficked recreational lake.
This weeks Atlanta Business Chronicle featured the front page article “ A Life, Foreclosed” about the suicide death of a prominent land developer David Moss. Moss went to one of his Forsyth County developments and shot himself. This follows on the heels of the daylight murder of Kay Wenal, wife of another prominent developer. The Wenal story is linked below.
Wsbtv.com/news/16405856/detail.html
The Atlanta Business Chronicle is also reporting:
“One in 12 metro Atlanta bank loans are past due in the 1st quarter 2008 ($13B).
Bankruptcy filing are up 73% in North GA in the 1st 4 months of 2008 as compared to the same time period in 2006.
148,000 vacant home lots—a 5 year supply in north metro, a 7 year supply in south metro.
Foreclosed lots are selling at 20 or 30 on the dollar.”
Note that when home builders purchase these lots, they will effectively put builders who have older lot inventories underwater. Even postage stamp sized lots were bought in the north metro area for $100K or more. The same house can now be built by buyers of foreclosed lots at $70K to $80K less, which is below the profit margins of builders who have standing lot or home inventories.
“Foreclosed lots are selling at 20 or 30 on the dollar. Note that when home builders purchase these lots, they will effectively put builders who have older lot inventories underwater. Even postage stamp sized lots were bought in the north metro area for $100K or more. The same house can now be built by buyers of foreclosed lots at $70K to $80K less, which is below the profit margins of builders who have standing lot or home inventories.”
These are the kind of stories I find highly entertaining. I can’t believe the level of greed and outright stupidity displayed by so many of these builders as they paid ridiculous prices for raw land. Personally, I know of one who is sitting on a parcel which, it’s now clear, he intended to ‘flip’. When I tried to explain to this j@ck@ss, how volatile the price of raw land is, he looked at me slackjawed like I was speaking in a foreign language. Now, I’m starting to see 20 acre parcels coming online for the same price he’s asking for 5 acres. He needs to sell, but there’s no way he can get his price. He’s gonna go BK because he’s overlevered in RE and cash is too tight.
Article in WaPo today re: lowballing, featuring a VERY obnoxious realtor-type. (And I am not one who loathes all realtors but seriously, her photo just emanates smugness). I am dying to know what she paid for the place, though.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/30/AR2008053001502.html
“He doesn’t seem to understand that I can’t just give it away.”
Wow, Over a Million and she thinks she is “Giving it away” , Lady you’re a Realtor and you can no longer afford that house.
I am dying to know what she paid for the place, though.
Ask and you shall receive:
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=60379104
Last sale and tax info
Sold 08/30/2002: $1,364,730
2007 Property Tax: $8,556
Thanks, JP!!! Totally the highlight of my day. I love having my suspicions about people’s greed confirmed ;).
You’re welcome!
It also explains why the Dubai fellow tried to bypass her and go directly to the mortgage lender with an offer of $1M. Presumably, a smart lender knows that he’s going to take a bath on the place and the would be happy to start arm twisting the woman into accepting the offer.
I still find it bizarre, as she wasn’t short selling, as far as I know. So, I don’t know what the guy from Dubai was thinking — in Virginia, you own the home, and as long as you pay your mortgage and taxes on time, there is no way they can take it from you.
That must be nice, in Texas, if some rich person decides he wants to build a football stadium or the toll authority decides it needs a new tollway you need to find yourself another house pronto.
in Virginia, you own the home, and as long as you pay your mortgage and taxes on time, there is no way they can take it from you.
My guess: Mr Dubai is betting that she is behind, or will be in the near future, so he is telegraphing to the bank that there is a willing buyer.
Given the number of foreclosures going on, the bank then has an incentive to put her at the top of the list and not drag their feet.
From my Jefferson County, WV neighborhood.
3 homes for sale (out of 41), have been now for over 9 months. The 2 corporate owned (company moves) homes just had their prices reduced to around $425,000, from a high listing price of $519,000.
The highest sale price in the nieghborhood was recorded in late 2006, for $515,000, for a typical house.
Most of us in the later stage of the development (phase III) went under contract in the fall of 2004 and settled in the spring of 2005. Typical final price was $450ish.
I can see prices drifitng down into the $350 range before the dust settles.
(Since I carried $200,000 of equity funny money over from a crapbox in PG County, MD and put it down on this house, and becuase I plan to live here for another 15 years, god willing, the state of my personal housing market bothers me little).
Drifting down to 350 grand? While I personally like the region, how could that possibly be the bottom figure there? Harpers Ferry is interesting and all, but are the extreme commuters ever coming back? I doubt it. Who else would be able to pay that much in the West Virginia panhandle?
These would be 250K maximun in 6 months.
I would say that you are overstating the ultimate price decline, but by how much time will tell. The one factor that will help somewhat is that the neighborhood has substantial lots (3+ acres) (no, don’t bleat out ’so you think your neighborhood is different’. The main reason to live out here is to have some elbow room).
I am a true HB believer, and would be fine if even the worst price drop predictions come true, but it is scary to think about the consequences to the greater public if prices drop 50% from fall 2004 pricing.
I’ll provide updates as either listing price declines, sales or foreclosures occur.
50%, 70%, 10%. Call it what you want but all those gains from 01-06 will be given back, except %3/yr losses to inflation of course.
I see the median SFR list price on ziprealty.com for our zip code (Rancho Bernardo 92127) is creeping back up into the stratosphere, from a recent level of $1,150,000 to a current level of $1,196,000. By contrast, according to Sandicor (caution: .pdf file), the median SFR sale price for April 2008 was $690,000, leaving a current gap of $1,196,000 - $690,000 = $506,000, or 506/1196*100 = 42 discount of the recent median SFR sale price off the current median SFR listing price.
I suspect what is going on is that the low end stuff is the only thing selling, while homes priced above $1m are sitting on the market forever, but I have no individual property level data to corroborate this theory.
I may have to dust off my Sony a-100 and go see how those mansions on the hills above 92009 are doing.
It is dangerous to shoot from a moving car, but there are some huge “housing cities” being built in Carlsbad. There is also mile after mile of brand new business parks with huge white buildings. The view is breath taking. Maybe i’ll go see how many are for sale or lease.
I wonder if a lot of those listings are from retirees that are going to leave those high listing prices until they either sell or die.
I had a coworker who lives in RB who told me a couple of months ago that a RE person told him that the rebuilding of houses in the areas that burned would push prices higher (new/updated versus old?). I called BS on that. There seemed to be little impact after the earlier Cedar Fire beyond the broader market forces in play at the time. I don’t expect it will be any different this time. However, if houses aren’t rebuilt and an empty slab is left behind, I would think that would negatively affect values of surrounding houses.
“I wonder if a lot of those listings are from retirees that are going to leave those high listing prices until they either sell or die.”
A few, perhaps, but I suspect an astonishing amount of the high end stuff in our zip code and similar upper-end zip codes around San Diego will turn out to be flippers who got stucco. Most of the folks I know in this area who are nearing retirement age bought their homes over twenty years ago; by contrast, the number of homes on the MLS in Rancho Bernardo West (92127) which have been built since 1998 is 190 out of 224 homes currently on the market, or 85 percent of current SFR listings. Further, the median list price in this sub group of relatively newer homes is currently a lofty $1,380,000 (versus an April median sale price of $690,000). Anyone nearing retirement who bought one of these newer overpriced McMansions since 1998 with the intent to flip it within a ten year time frame deserves the fate which awaits them.
“I had a coworker who lives in RB who told me a couple of months ago that a RE person told him that the rebuilding of houses in the areas that burned would push prices higher (new/updated versus old?).”
The number of homes that burned neither made a dent in the number of vacant new homes not yet on the market nor on the number of vacant foreclosure homes coming back on the market nor on the number of used homes that are priced at levels where they will never sell given current market realities. BS is spot on the money.
I posted this in the Bits Bucket, but I consider it pretty big news, so will repost. This is the first honest reporting I’ve seen out of W. Colorado re. housing, and this is the heart of oilpatch country, where everyone says all will be well.
From today’s Grand Junction, CO, paper (http://tinyurl.com/5hmrk9):
“Residential building permits for new construction are down 39 percent for the county and 48 percent for the city, and some say it is just the beginning of a slide that could last a few years in the local housing market. Others say the national economy is starting to affect the Grand Valley. And some are optimistic it is just a temporary slowdown.
“We are in a down slide. I see it getting a lot worse,” said John Davis, owner of Blue Star Industries, a local home builder. “We haven’t hit bottom yet. … We are already starting to lose builders.”
Davis said he remembers the dark days of the early 1980s and is prepared for their return.
“I would really be surprised if we don’t go down 50 percent this year — for a couple years,” he said. “I don’t know what is going to stop it. We are still going down. The only good thing about the market is the rentals. Rentals is booming.”
There were indications from 2006 to 2007 that the local housing market was beginning to slip, said Tucker Adams, regional economist and president of the Adams Group.”
Along those lines, am now as of today seeing one of the most successful RE salespeople in her area (Gunnison, CO) now posting on Craigslist - things must be getting tough, as she usually doesn’t stoop to the plebe level (callmindy dot com).
Oil will keep things from falling more than they otherwise might in GJ. I wish that weren’t the case but the oil development all along the I-70 corridor east of GJ is sickening to me. Or in other words, business is booming.
We’ve spent some time in GJ the past few years, going there for an occasional city run instead of SL. Not a bad place, but it seemed to me like there were scads of retirees, way more than I would have thought. I would imagine that part of the market is what is fueling the downturn.
Lost, are you familiar with the Olathe area? Seems like mainly active farmland, not useless trophy homes.
Morning Shoe. I know Olathe well, having lived for a number of years in Montrose (my parents are there). Olathe is a nice area, esp. if you go west towards the Uncompahgre Plateau, plus the soil’s better in that direction. The town itself has become a haven for illegals, many associated with the Olathe Sweet Corn production. Since Colorado tightened up their work rules last year, the sweet corn is declining. The fellow who developed the stuff (Tuxedo Sweet Corn) has fewer contracts this year because the farmers are seeing labor shortages. Supposedly, anyway. He’s a scumbag and lies to his own ends and loves the cheap labor, so is trying to leverage against the laws, uses the press.
Anyway, Olathe used to be a nice little farming community until the illegals came in. The climate is pretty nice, not a lot of snow and not really hot like Junction. I actually looked at buying a farm there in about 1992, good land with priority water and an OK farm house for about $350k, 160 acres. Now it’s astronomical but will come down. Be careful what you might buy next to, as they spray the heck out of the sweet corn and some other crops. And it’s all still way too high priced.
But if you want a really nice area with nice people, check out Pea Green, just a little store on a side highway between Olathe and Delta, but some progressive organic farmers and at least one CSA. I love Pea Green. Very pretty and pastoral and Delta County has no building codes and leaves you alone. Olathe’s in Montrose County, very restrictive and higher taxes.
Have you thought about Paonia? Lots of progressive types there, I believe the solar institute that used to be in Carbondale moved there, also good fruit country. Let me know if you have anything else you wanna know.
There’s no shortage of labor. There might be a shortage of cheap, illegal, taken-advantaged-of labor.
Thanks for the info. We’ve been to Paonia and looked around there. I got the impression that any of the productive land that remains is being bought up by outside money, and won’t ever be affordable again. Looks like a good portion of the water rights and valley land have been bought up by the wineries. SEI in Carbondale hasn’t moved over there, but a lot of the people have, probably due to the even higher prices over the mountain.
Progressive doesn’t particularly matter, I’m more interested in a stable self-supporting economy with sufficient water for all to produce. It’s just not to be found anymore out west. You know the drill - more often than not, western progressive means trendy, expensive, mostly 2nd homes, an economy only sustained by outside money, and lots of it. And for what small percentage of people acutally live there, the end result is more often then not a new type of non-diverse community . That may sound harsh, but I see the same stifling conformity in all cultural tribes. I get along because I know to keep my mouth shut if I don’t agree with the prevailing dogmas, whatever they are.
Maybe the housing bust will ease this trend and communities will return to evolving more slowly. But it’s too early to tell and if I want to settle I don’t have forever. It’s going to be a new look at the east after 20 years for us.
Organic and solar isn’t everything, if you have to get in a car and go 20 miles just to get the mail or buy basic goods. It’s a new type of energy-consuming lifestyle enabled by lots of cheap fossil energy.
Shoe, I am a firm believer that the W. Slope will see massive change soon, say within the next 3 years or less. The price of oil is going to kill the tourist industry, which is the foundation for many of the towns in that area. Second homes will go by the wayside as they get more expensive to keep and get to. The RE boom is starting to crash there, and that does include the oilpatch. I was young when the 82 bust happened, but I remember it well and the stories of people leaving, heck, half the town of Junction left and you could buy houses there for 20k, nice ones. I don’t think the oilpatch is immune this time around, it could happen again, is already happening, and even if the oilpatch slows it down some, it just isn’t a big enough contributor to stop it.
I think Paonia and that area will soon crash hard in RE prices, there never has been much there in terms of tourism and the wineries are a very very small portion of their economy and most are just hobbies anyway. The coal mines aren’t big enough to add much in terms of economic stability. Forbes did a mag article a few years ago about that area and how it would be the next wine boom area and it really didn’t change anything, the RE sellers were all excited and waiting for the Californians to arrive with all that cash, but it didn’t happen. The wineries really don’t own that much there, it’s more the orchard folks. I did a story for Wines & Vines on that area and talked to all the wineries there at that time, this was a few years back, and a lot of those people are just treading water or else independently wealthy.
Did you look at Hotchkiss? A very nice area, beautiful farms up on the mesas and not as expensive as Paonia. Nice town, too. Same for Cedaredge, nice climate, not as pricey.
As for water, well, as you know, out here everything has to be irrigated, so yes, a high dependency on water projects and all that. But here in GR, there’s great soil and tons of water, but absolutely nothing is for sale. No western progressive here!
I do know a couple in Moab who are trying to sell their house and move to Alabama to farm and become self-sufficient, they’re very worried about the future, and probably should be, as Moab’s toast. And you know this, but if it were me and I lived down your way and wanted to sell, I’d put my house on the market yesterday. It’s slow down there anyway, and who knows what’s coming? (Well, we do know, don’t we…)
Lost, we celebrated our 25th anniversary last June in a cute little house on a couple acres just outside of Crawford that rented out as B&B type of place. It was fun and I was intrigued by Crawford because it is a bit more out of the way, with productive farmland to be had. We travelled around the whole area. I was amazed at how much the land even there is being carved up for 2nd home “estates”. I’m sure a lot of this is the death throws of the bubble on the Western Slopes, but still…
I’ve seen some of the listings you’ve highlighted in that general area, people asking 3X what the places are ultimately worth. It’s still fantasy land for the time being.
And if I’m bearish about Western Co, you’re right, I should be bearish about my own locale. The house will be the last to go for us, though. That’s not where our money is, it’s in a separate piece of land. Our home is paid for, and taxes, water, insurance and electric average out to $125/mo. Better to rent somewhere else for a year depending on work opportunities, and keep our powder dry. If I have to sell for chump change at some point, well, that’s what it cost us to begin with.
What few houses come on the market for under $300K still get scooped up at premium prices, because there’s so few to be had. The trophy homes of course are asking much more and they don’t seem to be moving.
Crawford’s just across the Black Cyn from Montrose and what a different world! Very quiet. Had a friend who moved there from Aspen in the early 90s and bought a big palce for very little and sold it and paid for his retirement (500 acres). But RE is way overpriced all over W. Colo. and I’m just waiting for it to crash, then I may go back, maybe not, I kind of like Utah. I really like your area.
Saw a house that had been listed for $315k in your area go under contract, the one on 8 acres out in whatever that subdivision’s called where the little chapel is (Sand Ck?). It’s pretty out there (lots of nice petrified wood just up in the cliffs from there).
You’re smart for owning the house outright! Pretty good deal in an awesomely pretty place.
I know exactly the place you’re talking about on Sand Creek. It’s only 2 blocks from our place, as the deer roam. We looked at it ourselves, because it had a great detatched shop building with an area I could convert into home office. The house was weird though, well built but partitioned off in typical suburban style. Not at all what we were interested in. I thought it about $60-100K overpriced. The place was lived in year round and went on sale when the previous owner died. I wonder if the new owners will live in or not, haven’t heard yet. The ATV noise over on Sand Creek is constant on the weekends during season. They’re tearing up the Sand Creek drainage big time.
Another place in town just sold for mid $200’s, was a local family, new owners are part time residents. From everything I see, the trend continues steadily toward out-of-town ownership. Another small A-frame “modern” construction on a picturesque but useless subdivision lot went on the market for $280K and was gone within a week or so. Apparently low end houses in Torrey still look cheap to outside buyers, people who can definitely still afford 2nd houses because almost all of them have no intention of ever living here.
Shoe, they haven’t got the memo yet about gas prices…
RE: More denial here in New England.
Ivory Tower types still believe you can float an economy on public teaching jobs, bio-tech (2.3% of Mazzland workforce), and tourism.
The political hacks and public unions see the writing on the wall and are looting the system via self-serving pension schemes.
$5.00 & $6.00 per gallon heating fuel oil will crush this region.
All this “going green” is pure BS. Jus take a drive over the Tobin Bridge in Chelsea & Everett and look at the endless sprawl of century old tri-deckers piled in on top of each other
Got solar?-LMAO.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/05/31/economy_may_lag_but_no_recession
Uh, nuh-uh. It says Massachusetts to avoid a recession!! Just barely, but still. Our world-class hospitals save us again.
RE: Our world-class hospitals save us again.
Yeah, kept afloat with bankrupt Medicaid money.
“$5.00 & $6.00 per gallon heating fuel oil will crush this region.”
BULLSEYE. This aligns closely with NYCB’s(I think) forecast that the next large leg down will be Oct or Nov this year. Guys who work for me, say 80-90k/yr types, right now, are agonizing whether to lock into their fuel oil prices or take their chances this fall. Think about. $1000 to fill a 275gal tank that might get you through a month of winter.
Time to buy a woodstove and start cuttin’.
RE: Time to buy a woodstove and start cuttin’.
Used to be a time when orderin’ up an 8 cord truckload of tree length was as easy as cutting pie.
However, once the mills found a way to use the hardwood in their paper making, and the harvesting industry began scaling back because of labor shortages all is not well in here in woodstove country.
Price 2 years ago was $80 per cord green. My guess is this season prices will go over $300 due to the amount of panic buying coming into the pipeline.
A woodstove was one of my options for a house temp above 57 degrees next November. I decided that going back to work was more realistic. Without a woodlot it doesnt pencil out.
Went to Lowes & orded some new windows to cut down the draft. Window saleslady was lonesome until I showed up. Very lite traffic for a nice Saturday at noon; people were buying plants and garden tools. Saleslady said she just started working there after a 6 year stint with a builder who went belly up this winter. Said no one really seems to understand how bad local builders are doing. I told her to dial up the HBB and join the ranks of the informed. We had plenty of time to gab, only employees walking around with worried looks.
Interesting observation: Went to visit my coin dealer yesterday. I was low on gas but a no-name tanker was parked in my local cheapo gas station, so I passed it by. On the way back from the coinshop the tanker was still there. I pulled in anyway and got what I needed and went in to pay. The guy in front of me was talking to the cashier and answered a question I didnt hear saying ” He’s going to wait until theres enough room in the tank to drop his delivery.” Are those tankers really empty in CA??
RE: I was low on gas but a no-name tanker was parked in my local cheapo gas station,
When gaz hits $8.00 per gallon, the tanker transport companies will be hiring Blackwater shooters to ride shot-gun to fend off potential high-jackers.
RE: Guys who work for me, say 80-90k/yr types, right now, are agonizing whether to lock into their fuel oil prices or take their chances this fall. Think about. $1000 to fill a 275gal tank that might get you through a month of winter.
If the 80/90k guys are worried-things might just might get a bit chilly for all those welfare mothers with five kids in the thousands of worn out, energy sucking, former mill-worker, tri-deckers spread out across the region.
Hey, 50% of Bangor Hyrdo Electric subscribers are already in arrears. And that was for last year!
If I was dependant on a govie fuel assistance check I’d be gettin’ my azz down south right now.
Welfare moms have little to worry about. They’ll be toasty. Those drafty triplexes definitely are energy hogs.
Think about. $1000 to fill a 275gal tank that might get you through a month of winter.
Wow! That’s about my annual Nat Gas bill.
Here’s the latest on my “adopted” loft in the Hillcrest/Mission Hills area of San Diego:
http://tinyurl.com/3o26ja
It’s new and was initially listed in March at $750k. That price as adjusted in April to $699-750K and remains unchanged since then. A sign just went up in a window that it’s now for rent for “only $2950″ per month. While it is new and does have 1600sf, you can get very decent 2/2 apartments in this area in the 1000sf range for well under $2K/month. It will be interesting to see if it rents for that amount much less sells for anything near the current list (wishing) price. Since they probably paid bubble land and construction costs, I suspect they are way upside down.
Future foreclosure. Night night.
“only $2950″ per month.
Thats how much you would have to pay me to live in that eyesore. I would have to use the money to heat and cool that place during the winter and summer months. Especially with all those windows.
PERFECT house to walk around naked in….LOL
Is that like a economic-hit-and-run?
“The U.S. slowdown has side-swiped Canadian manufacturers - especially those in Ontario - who export more than 70 per cent of their products across the border.”
Canada’s personal savings rate is below zero. They have the same bad habits as Americans, and drank only a slightly watered down version of the housing bubble kool-aid.
This may have been a hit-and-run, but they were driving drunk at the same time.
“‘It is certainly disturbing,’ said Thomas Callahan, head of the Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance. ‘It has the effect of depressing the market.’”
He said that seriously without a trace of irony, didn’t he.
What sort of pressure must the several hundred feel, and the next several hundred after that and so on, and so on?
And how do we pay for the upkeep of prisons-for-profits, chock full of convicted, and bursting at the seams?
California just told the Federal government to go fvck themselves, when the DeadFed’s hit us up for 7 Large (er, Billion) for inmate outsourcing.
“The city will eliminate hundreds of positions as it copes with a budget shortfall and a slowdown in tax revenue, City Manager Dale Fisseler said in a letter to employees. ‘I am convinced that these budget cuts will require us to reduce the workforce by several hundred positions,’ Fisseler wrote.”
“Fort Worth is hardly alone in facing revenue shortfalls. State and local governments nationwide are struggling to make up for declining revenue and are considering layoffs, service cuts and other measures to make ends meet.”
And how do we pay for the upkeep of prisons-for-profits, chock full of convicted, and bursting at the seams?
Offshore the prisons to China
Ha! Maybe that will scare some people straight!
You may be on to something. It would be fun to watch a gang try to “take over” a prison in China.
“The U.S. slowdown has side-swiped Canadian manufacturers - especially those in Ontario - who export more than 70 per cent of their products across the border.”
According to the March yoy stats, it was BC that had an increase in Employment Insurance recipients. Every other province had a decrease, even Ontario. BC was +1.8%, Ontario -2.2%, and Canada -4.3%
We are rapidly losing good union jobs in forestry, and we’ll see big provincial government cutbacks coming to the public sector. Vancouver universities and colleges are laying off professors.
BC will soon experience the bust that follows the boom, just in time for the Olympics.
“‘It’s not just the big people who will get caught. It’s going to be the smaller subcontractors and the suppliers who get scraped off’ with the foreclosure lawsuits, said Neiman. ‘They would end up receiving nothing. It’s amazing the number of limited liability companies that these builders either owned or controlled or were a percentage owner of. It’s going to take some time to put your arms around … to determine how deep this is.’”
Down the rabbit hole we go…
Canada is just cruisin’ for a bruisin’…
I suspect high particulate counts of Smug drifting northwards from Marin, might be the culprit.
Flippers go wild in Toronto!
They’re asking $1.5 mil for the flip in Beaches
but you can buy this house in Rosedale for the same price
FYI. Beaches is a former working-class area now “trendy”, while Rosedale is Canada’s wealthiest neighborhood and home of Toronto’s “old money”.
Which of these near-identical condos on the same street would you rather purchase? (BTW, we bought a place just like these but one street over for below $90/sqft back in the mid-1990s.)
3760 NORTHRIDGE DR, Richmond, CA 94806**
Beds: 3 Type: CONDO/TH Sq. Ft.: 1,462 Lot Size: N/A MLS #: 40328494
Baths: 2/1 Built: 1988 $/Sq.Ft.: $171 List Date: 03/06/08 On Market: 86 days
Description
Don’t miss the opportunity to own this charming and well maintained townhome… Neutral color and decor throughout. Ready to move-in. Located in a quiet cul de sac. Close proximity to shopping, freeway access and only minutes away from the city. Motivated sellers…. Sell it! Potential short sale
ZipRealty Price Track
Price Reduced: 04/01/08 — $390,000 to $350,000
Price Reduced: 04/15/08 — $350,000 to $300,000
Price Reduced: 05/01/08 — $300,000 to $250,000
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3770 NORTHRIDGE DR, Richmond, CA 94806**
Beds: 3 Type: CONDO/TH Sq. Ft.: 1,462 Lot Size: N/A MLS #: 40333912
Baths: 2/1 Built: 1988 $/Sq.Ft.: $223 List Date: 04/02/08 On Market: 59 days
List Price: $325,500
Description
Pleasant modern townhome. Move-in condition. New roof, new water heater. New landscaping w/ automatic sprinkler. Fireplace. Formal dining room. Huge rooms. Mirrored closet doors. Nice patio.
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3786 NORTHRIDGE DRIVE, Richmond, CA 94806**
Beds: 3 Type: CONDO/TH Sq. Ft.: 1,462 Lot Size: N/A MLS #: 40320437
Baths: 2/1 Built: 1988 $/Sq.Ft.: $287 List Date: 01/25/08 On Market: 127 days
List Price: $420,000 Price reduced
Description
Owners are motivated sellers! Bright sunny unit. Two patios, two simming pools, club house, jacuzzi, and green area with baseball diamond. Walking distance to hilltop mall. Near transportatin. Upgraded kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets and hardwood floors. Some views of the bay.
ZipRealty Price Track
Price Reduced: 03/12/08 — $450,000 to $420,000
Here is a Dutch auction gone wrong, which serves to nicely illustrate the risk of chasing the market down. SD home prices were recently reported to be declining at a 20 pct annual rate. The implied rate of price reductions on this Dutch auction sale are computed as follows:
Price Reduced: 06/16/07 — $899,888
List price on 05/31/08 — $720,000
Assuming they will not have the prescience to reduce this price further by 6/16/08, the YOY drop in asked price is only
(720,000/899,888-1)*100 = -19.99 pct.
Sellers take note, as I am offering you a free economics tutorial here:
If a home is initially listed at above market price, then the list price is reduced at the exact same rate that market prices are falling, it will stay above the market price forever and never sell.
17068 SILVER PINE ROAD, SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127**
Beds: 5 Type: SFR Sq. Ft.: 3,628 Lot Size: N/A MLS #: 076042843
Baths: 4/1 Built: 2005 $/Sq.Ft.: $198 List Date: 05/25/07 On Market: 372 days
List Price: $720,000 Price reduced
Description
*gorgeous home in prestigous 4s ranch * upgrades * gourmet kitchen w/granite counters * custom tile thru out the entire house * bedroom w/private bath on 1st floor perfect for inlaws* fireplace in master bedroom *lender approved sale price of $720
ZipRealty Price Track
Price Reduced: 06/16/07 — $899,888 to $889,888
Price Reduced: 07/02/07 — $889,888 to $879,888
Price Reduced: 07/15/07 — $879,888 to $869,888
Price Reduced: 08/23/07 — $869,888 to $849,888
Price Reduced: 09/27/07 — $849,888 to $799,888
Price Reduced: 10/07/07 — $799,888 to $789,888
Price Reduced: 10/20/07 — $789,888 to $779,888
Price Reduced: 11/18/07 — $779,888 to $769,888
Price Reduced: 11/27/07 — $769,888 to $749,888
Price Increased: 01/06/08 — $749,888 to $750,000
Price Reduced: 02/07/08 — $750,000 to $720,000
I thought I would add some spice here and talk about the South African property market …
Our market peaked in 2006 and with the introduction of a new credit act in 2007, lending standards were tightened to the point of market strngulation.
Meanwhile, interest rates have been on a steady uphill forced march, the prime rate is 15% (typical for car loans), my own mortgage is 13%. A 1% or even 2% hike is looming this month. Very, very few people have fixed rate mortgages here. You simply can’t walk away from any judgments here, even for a few hundred dollars. The creditors will go after after any assets they can identify.
The result is a frozen, illiquid market. Anyone who is underwater on a loan will starve until inflation brings nominal prices in line with real ones.
I think everyone is waiting for the looming wave of foreclosure/repossesion auctions where the current market can be established.
I tried unsuccessfully to sell my 3 properties here in 2007.
Ironically this year, I have sold all of them in a far worse market.
The difference being that I priced my properties at half the peak levels and negotiated the deals from there. I am lucky that I am walking away with equity from all 3.
Unfortunately, it will be difficult to find other property to buy this year. On the other hand, rents are pitifully low here compared to capital costs. R 10,000 a month will rent a high end luxury property selling for circa. R 5,000,000, simply because even middle class people cannot afford more than R 5,000 per month rent.
Last weekend I went to (Rhodes) university town Grahamstown and I joked afterwards that the Americanism “It’s Different Here” had arrived.
Grahamstown is an absurdly beautiful English market town plonked down right on the border with the former Xhosa homelands. The only economy it has is education which means a vast number of non whites chasing bottom of the barrel service jobs. Neighbourhoods resemble Johannesburg in terms of home (in)security; walled in compounds topped with razor wire is a given, every other house has a electrified fence. 5 years ago, property was very cheap $20K-$50K. Now $200K seems to be median price. I was the only visitor to an open house at a “cluster” development … houses situated on tiny plots behind a security wall in a truly ugly ‘hood. For cheap construction (of course, no central air!), around $150 per sq ft. The agent told me she was going to Tucson next year for a family visit.
I bet her that she would be buying!
On the way back from Grahamstown, I stopped off at Jeffreys Bay, considered less attractive than next door St Francis Bay. Much nicer atmosphere and I think there will be great values as South Africans are forced to sell their second homes.
What does a house at Jeffreys Bay go for?
1.5 million rand ($200,000) will buy a nice house, not beachfront but oceanview. I think the prices will fall to the million rand level. Away from the coast or in not so good areas, prices will fall back to half a million rand.
Not far from Jeffreys Bay, at Paradise Beach there were plots 2 streets from the beach that languised for years until 2003 when they were scooped up for $2K to $5K. I just missed out on that one but scored elsewhere.
Things are hitting the ski towns, here’s one example - (Crested Butte, Colorado) westslope.craigslist.org/rfs/702502434.html:
facing foreclosure Aug 6……at this point owners will take anything over mortgage. appraisal aug 2006 was $1385000, mortgage now $970,000. your instant equity $415,000.
Ha! That’s too funny! “Instant Equity” based on an ‘06 appraisal!
House next to me is vacant
Ozarks (SW MO, small town near Springfield)
The log house next to the place I am renting has been vacant for two months. The owners originally tried to sell it at $160K, then $120K, then they apparently went into foreclosure. It’s one thing to read about these vacant homes, it’s another to have one of them next door!
After two weeks we finally went over and closed the garage door. While there we noticed that the window in the kitchen had been ripped out — so the house is completely open to the elements which here include thunderstorms, hail, tornados, bazillions of bugs, rodents, roving wild animals, drunk teenagers, and meth labs. I remember that the kitchen window was something slightly fancy, e.g. stained glass. Whoever took that window also attempted to take the front door as they peeled off the framing (but didn’t finish the removal). And took the backyard gates. The yard hasn’t been mowed in months so the house is easy to spot as being abandoned.
I called a friend who is a real estate agent and she told me the house was in foreclosure and she would tell the person who is handling it about the vandalism. But that was a month ago and nothing has been done.
I also read in the local newspaper that the town has had to allocate more funds for city employees to try to get owners to maintain their properties. It’s obvious when you look around that there are 2-3 times as many unkempt houses as last year. What’s amazing is how quickly these houses deteriorate! Fences fall down, lawns turn into weed-choked fields, graffitti appears…
This bust knows no bounds.
Ozarks are beautiful, my dad’s family is from the Alley Springs area (they left when he was little), recall going there in the summers as a kid, hot and humid and lush and really downhome people.
I forgot to mention that we almost got flattened by a tornado last night. One was sighted and headed straight toward town. The tornado sirens went on at about 2:15am. This is a regular event these days…luckily the tornado died away before reaching any towns but over the last few years there have been lots of tornados in these area, and hundreds of houses destroyed, and many people have died. Yet most houses, especially newer ones such as the duplex I live in, don’t have any sort of basement or tornado shelter. Neither does that dumpy log house next door. I didn’t have time to get in the car and go to my brother’s house (he has a basement) so I dragged my 3 dogs into the bathroom which is in the middle of the duplex, took along a flashlight, cell phone, and laptop, and we all huddled under a bunch of blankets. The dogs thought it was great fun.
Now that’s scary - three dogs huddled in a bathroom! Mine would get in a big fight with me in the middle - nah, just kidding. Stay safe.
I live in Carlsbad, CA and recently the North County Times had an article that that 60% of the foreclosures are not even on the market yet because the banks can’t process them fast enough. In the past few months they began grading an area on my drive to work, just found out today that it is going to be 500+ new home and condos…can’t wait to see the pricing on these beauties…lol
The development is called “Robertson Ranch”
I live in Oceanside, CA, 92054 about 1.5 miles from the beach.
The 2 BR/2 BA condo unit above me sold as follows:
- $232k 2003
- $350k 2005
The current owner, who paid $350k, is now offering the unit (exact same model as mine) for $215k.
Now this is $5k less than what I paid for mine in 2003. (About the same time the upstairs unit sold for $232k.) However, I put 20% down and got a 5.25% 30 fixed mortgage.
My PITI plus HOA is about what I’d pay for an average 2 BR/2 BA condo rental in the area. I am staying long term so the downturn doesn’t really freak me out. Other pluses include being close to the transit center where I can take the train (Coaster) for $132 per month to my job.
Fortunately, my complex hasn’t been as badly hit as some other HOAs are with foreclosures, etc. Go further inland
and the carnage is incredible.
Which of these Mulligan homes (aka Hayward Fault specials) would you prefer to buy? If the Hayward Fault does not go right through any of their back yards, I am quite sure from their location that the fault is located within 1 mi.
These are all current listings on ziprealty.com:
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5128 MULLIGAN COURT, Richmond, CA 94806**
Beds: 3 Type: SFR Sq. Ft.: 1,596 Lot Size: 2,387 Sq. Ft. MLS #: 40343899
Baths: 3/1 Built: 2007 $/Sq.Ft.: $279 List Date: 05/18/08 On Market: 14 days
List Price: $444,900
Estimated Monthly Payment: $2,133
Description
Brand new home. Never lived in! Washer, dryer and fridge included. Home is equipped with security system. Nice quiet neighborhood. A must see!
———————————————————————————
5133 MULLIGAN COURT, Richmond, CA 94806**
Beds: 3 Type: SFR Sq. Ft.: 1,596 Lot Size: 2,357 Sq. Ft. MLS #: 40343896
Baths: 3/1 Built: 2007 $/Sq.Ft.: $279 List Date: 05/18/08 On Market: 14 days
List Price: $444,900
Estimated Monthly Payment: $2,133
Description
Brand new home. Never lived in! Washer, dryer and fridge included. Home is equipped with security system. Nice quiet neighborhood. A must see!
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5125 MULLIGAN COURT, Richmond, CA 94806**
Beds: 3 Type: SFR Sq. Ft.: 1,596 Lot Size: 2,101 Sq. Ft. MLS #: 40322738
Baths: 3/1 Built: 2007 $/Sq.Ft.: $279 List Date: 02/07/08 On Market: 115 days
List Price: $444,900
Estimated Monthly Payment: $2,133
Description
Brand new home. Never lived in! Washer, dryer and fridge included. Home is equipped with security system. Nice quiet neighborhood. Courtyard location! A must see!
—————————————————————————–
5121 MULLIGAN COURT, Richmond, CA 94806**
Beds: 3 Type: SFR Sq. Ft.: 1,596 Lot Size: 2,101 Sq. Ft. MLS #: 40343891
Baths: 3/1 Built: 2007 $/Sq.Ft.: $279 List Date: 05/18/08 On Market: 14 days
List Price: $444,900
Estimated Monthly Payment: $2,133
Description
Brand new home. Never lived in! Washer, dryer and fridge included. Home is equipped with security system. Nice quiet neighborhood. A must see!
———————————————————————————-
5129 MULLIGAN COURT, Richmond, CA 94806**
Beds: 3 Type: SFR Sq. Ft.: 1,596 Lot Size: 1,901 Sq. Ft. MLS #: 40343895
Baths: 3/1 Built: 2007 $/Sq.Ft.: $279 List Date: 05/18/08 On Market: 14 days
List Price: $444,900
Description
Brand new home. Never lived in! Washer, dryer and fridge included. Home is equipped with security system. Nice quiet neighborhood. A must see!
You left out the best part: if you buy one and it turns out to be defective, they’ll let you move into one down the street. The bank is calling this unique home warranty program “taking a mulligan.”
Too funny wait.
You beat me to the punchline
Thanks for that — I knew there was a high pun potential in that street name…
Have you done the math on the “Estimated Monthly Payment?”
Lets assume a 10% downpayment of 44,000, and an interest rate of 6.05% (the lowest I see on Bankrate.com). That gives me $2411.08/month.
If I do 20% down, I get the amount they put there. Of course, that doesn’t include property tax, insurance, HOA fees, etc.
Do you think for one minute anyone who has saved $88,000 cash would buy a house in Richmond? Any first-time home buyer responsible enough to have saved up some money will be renting for a few more years.
Let’s put it another way (to reply to my OWN post
)
Suppose you were a couple in your early 30s who carefully saved $88,000 over the past 10 years. You’re thinking of buying a $444,000 Richmond home.
You note that prices keep dropping each month, and you see that each block has several identical homes for sale, all of which have been on the market for a while.
Here are your choices:
1. Put 88,000 down (20%). Buy the home. But if you lose your job for a while, you may have to walk away from the house because you’ll be too far underwater to cover your loss.
2. Rent for $2000/month. If you lose your job, and can at least make minimum wage somewhere, you can live for 44 months (3.6 years) on your savings, and if you can each make $5/hour you’ll at least be able to eat! (You can also downsize to a $1500/month apartment for only the cost of renting a U-haul for a weekend and treating your friends to some beer and BBQ)
Which option would make YOU feel more secure!
That means that this bubble still has a LONG way to go! Because any responsible saver won’t TOUCH the housing market now.
News from McMansion central — the hills of San Clemente (interior, no ocean view.)
So, I’m at a baby shower yesterday. We walk into this beautiful house. Outside it’s cookie-cutter McMansionville, but the house is nice inside. The backyard is fantastic. (I checked out the other models later — they’re all pretty much the same inside; only color schemes differentiate the two or three stock interior setups.)
Things looked okay, construction defect-wise (I grew up riding with my dad the general contractor so I know what a finished high-end building should look like.). Still, I’d like to see these houses after a rain. I’m not so sure about the window installation and the flat roofs. I’d LOVE to climb up and see them — dad’s got a niche roofing business along the OC Coast and roof failures are hella-common in these slap-dash subdivisions. Oh, and on top of that (you’re gonna love this A-Lad) they had THREE a/c units to cool the place.
I’d heard tell that the owners of the house were about to lose it. I really like the owners — they’re a super nice couple. They’ve got a 14 year-old kid (super nice and well-behaved) a 24 month old, and a baby coming in a coupla weeks. I wanted to verify the “about to lose the house” story.
Did I ever.
The house sold in 11/05 for 1.4million. It sold again (refi) in 07 for 1.7 million.
When I was there, they had a “green sheet” on the table, published by the local Coldwell Banker agent giving updates on home sales in the area. Their house: 4200 sf. Houses 6600 sf were selling for 1.6. According to Zillow, it’s worth 1.2 million. However, a house down the street with similar square footage is for sale for 899, per Redfin.
To quote my English students: No bueno.
More updates on Anaheim school enrollment to come. But know this, mes amis, it’s getting ugly here in the sunny rolling hills of South Orange County, almost as ugly as the flatlands of its dreaded Northern neighbors: Anaheim and Santa Ana.
But why, exactly, are they “loosing it?” All the houses on my block can sell for $10,000 apiece and I won’t lose my house.
They’re “losing it” because she lost her job (something realty-related) and has no hope of work in the foreseeable future and the refi money from 2007 is running out. The original mortgage and the refi were both ARMs. I don’t know if the latest is neg am or not, but either way, they’re severely underwater. So, either they stay and wait to get foreclosed on or they walk away.
They’re just another example of people buying homes based on the approval of a loan broker and not on common sense financial principles.
More importantly, their specific HOME is an example of the depreciation we’re seeing even in the upper-end subdivisions in South Orange County.