On An Ugly Little Roller Coaster In Florida
The News Press reports from Florida. “In historic fashion, taxable property values tumbled 12.4 percent across the county compared with last year, which means less money for local governments to spend on services or a tax-rate increase. Preliminary figures released Monday by Lee County Property Appraiser Ken Wilkinson show taxable values dropped to $84.5 billion, down $11.9 billion.”
“Market values, or the value the property would sell for on the open market, also fell 12 percent to $109.9 billion. Last year values increased 6 percent. In 2006 they jumped 40 percent.”
“Wilkinson said a drop in taxable value year-over-year has never happened in the last 50 years, and may not only have occurred during the depression.”
“‘This is the worst I’ve seen it in 30 years (as a Realtor in Southwest Florida) and I’ve gone through three recessions,’ said Ed Bonkowski, referring to today’s lean times as well the economic slumps of the early 1980s and 1990s. ‘And we’re not out of it yet.’”
“The problem, he said, is the inventory of homes, more than 3,500 of them. ‘The lenders will have to sell below market value,’ Bonkowski said. ‘While (the properties) are out there, it’s going to be an albatross on everybody’s neck.’”
“Cape Coral took the roughest knock, down 27 percent in taxable value. The Lehigh Acres area is down 23 percent. ‘I wasn’t surprised,’ Wilkinson said. ‘It was sort of a gut feeling I was having.’”
“Foreclosures are rocking not just the thousands of homeowners in Lee County, but the homeowners associations that represent them. The reason: Financially strapped residents or, in many cases, the lack of residents because of the growing foreclosures, simply aren’t paying their bills.”
“Foreclosures hit a record 2,160 in April as home prices collapsed: down 37 percent in April to $200,300 from an all-time high of $322,300 in December 2005.”
“In Southwest Florida, non-payment of fees is a problem mainly for newer projects that were built or converted from rentals in the real estate boom that reached its height in December 2005, said Joe Adams, who’s in charge of the Becker & Poliakoff office in Fort Myers.”
“‘It’s a huge problem,’ he said. ‘It’s not really just in conversions, but that was the craze in ‘03 and ‘04 and ‘05, and they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.’”
“One of the hardest hit is Renaissance, near the Edison Mall, converted from apartments three years ago at the height of the real estate boom. Foreclosure actions have been filed against 17 of the 112 units and five of those have already been taken back by the lender.”
“Bill Davis, a retired banker who lives in Marietta, Ga., bought a condo at Renaissance in February 2006 for $210,900 as a place where he could visit his son and two grandchildren in Fort Myers.”
“Now the condo is assessed by the Lee County property appraiser at $133,000, eight other units are listed for sale at $100,000 or less, and Davis said he’s not sure what the future will bring.”
“The 20 percent response to the special assessment was an eye-opener, he said. So far, foreclosure actions have been filed against the owners of an additional 28 units but many others are headed that way.”
“There’s no way they can stay in their homes or will stay in their homes, Davis said. ‘They’re just waiting to get kicked out, waiting for a year before the sheriff kicks them out’ after the foreclosure goes thorough.”
“Steve Bostwick, a Century 21 Sunbelt Realty agent who bought three Tuscany Gardens units three years ago, said increasing delinquency rates has caused his monthly fees to increase from $233.23 a month for a one-bedroom, one-bath unit up to $411.75 for the largest three-bedroom, two-bath unit. Thirty-four of the 248 units are in foreclosure.”
“Stoneybrook residents haven’t just sat and waited for their property values to go down as weeds grow on the community’s 23 abandoned properties. There have been at least 62 foreclosure actions filed against Stoneybrook residents, 30 of them this year, according to Lee County Clerk of Courts records.”
“‘The Estates Home Owners Association bought the mulch and the volunteers spread the mulch, trimmed the bushes and made the houses look good,’ said Sherry Bucar, who’s on the board. But that only goes so far, she added, noting that Gateway Estates only assesses its 694 homeowners an $87-a-year fee. ‘We don’t have the money to buy more bark mulch.’”
The Herald Tribune. “Jeffrey J. Lauro put almost all the pieces together to build as many as 1,400 condominiums and single-family homes in Charlotte and Sarasota counties during the real estate boom, say people who did business with the 37-year-old entrepreneur.”
“‘His plans made sense,’ said John Kingston, a Lake Suzy mortgage broker who helped assemble building lots for Lauro. ‘If he had gone through with them, he would be worth tens of millions of dollars today.’”
“Instead, Lauro is facing criminal charges in Charlotte County for allegedly stealing $198,000 through a construction loan scheme. Two of his companies are in bankruptcy with debts that could amount to more than $20 million.”
“In one of the bankruptcy cases, 177 investors from England, Scotland and Ireland are claiming that Lauro took their deposits totaling more than $6 million and never brought the homes and condos he promised out of the ground.”
“‘It doesn’t make sense why he didn’t follow through,’ Kingston said. ‘He had the sales. The Europeans loved his ideas. He just took their money.’”
“Prominent local real estate investors including Trey Desenberg and Greg Band lent him money, as did novice investors like Chiefland residents Lewis and Cherri Prevatt.”
“At a ‘Get Motivated’ seminar in December 2005..(an) associate suggested that the Prevatts attend a three-day seminar in Tampa that focused on ‘how to get rich in real estate,’ the Prevatts’ lawsuit states.”
“At that seminar, the Prevatts were persuaded to pay $23,995 to attend a more intensive…seminar on real estate investing. Lauro was one of the key speakers at that March 2006 gathering, and he ultimately persuaded the Prevatts to invest in three homes in North Port, the Prevatts’ lawsuit states.”
“According to documents…construction was proceeding on all three contracts when the Prevatts ‘refused to allow the lender to issue further draws for completion of construction.’”
“The Prevatts, the documents state, ‘are simply having buyer’s remorse over the investment in real estate in Florida. As is common knowledge, the real estate market in the state of Florida and nationwide has taken a substantial turn downward in the past several years.’”
“Kingston says Lauro owes him $2.275 million for the land he contracted to sell in Deep Creek and Burnt Store Lakes, as well as $212,000 in deposits and $45,000 that Kingston used to buy building lots.”
“‘Nothing makes sense to me anymore,’ Kingston said. ‘Lauro had everything he needed to succeed, but he never built anything.’”
“There was a time not too long ago when being a Realtor seemed to be a quick way to riches. When the housing market was hot from 2001 to 2005, the number of agents belonging to the Sarasota Association of Realtors doubled.”
“‘Many of the people who entered during the boom years felt like this was an easy business and an easy way to make money, and it’s not,’ said Moe Veissi, a Miami-based spokesman for the National Association of Realtors. ‘We drew a lot of people with dollar signs in their eyes.’”
“Nationally, the number of Realtors in 2001 grew by 104 percent by 2005. In Florida, the number grew 113 percent. In Sarasota, their ranks swelled by 69 percent during that same time period.”
“Returning to the basics as the market someday returns to a more normal balance of buyers and sellers is paramount, said Kathy Roberts, CEO of the Sarasota Association of Realtors. ‘We may have, in fact, seen the bottom of our market and, provided no big crises comes along that nobody expects, we should recover,’ she said. ‘We just want to get back to a normal market.’”
The St Petersburg Times. “The Tampa Bay area is suffering far worse than the rest of the country in the nationwide slump in auto sales.”
“New vehicle registrations in the Tampa Bay area fell 16 percent in the first quarter of this year compared with a year ago. That’s more than twice the national decline of 7 percent, according to automotive research firm R.L. Polk.”
“The housing crunch has been a double whammy. A lot of people use their home equity to buy cars - and much of that has evaporated, said Jack Nerad, market analyst for Kelley Blue Book.”
“Fernando Fernandez, a sales manager at Brandon Honda, said the number of gas-guzzler trade-ins at his dealership has soared recently. ‘We just had one customer trade in his (Cadillac) Escalade for a new Civic,’ he said.”
The Bradenton Herald. “Migrant workers aren’t flocking to Manatee County during peak seasons as they’ve done for decades. Economic conditions have left little work.”
“‘The overall population of migrants in Florida . . . is certainly shrinking,’ said Walter Kates, Florida Fruit and Vegetable director of the Labor Relations Division. ‘The number of people at least working in agriculture of migrant background seems to be decreasing every year.’”
“It’s difficult for anyone to determine exactly how many migrants have left and not returned. But in the past year, local service providers and activists agree, fewer migrants are calling Manatee County home.”
“One clear measure is in Manatee County’s schools. In the district’s migrant program, funded by grant money apart from the school budget, there are about 1,400 students migrant students enrolled this school year. In the 1980s and ’90s, there were an estimated 6,000 migrant students.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Residential real-estate auctions are beginning to rack up some significant numbers and dollars in Central Florida for brokerages handling the growing list of foreclosed properties.”
“Coldwell Banker Ackley Realty held two auctions recently that netted 24 sales, including 14 from its own listings, broker-owner Rajia Ackley said. The combined value of the 24 sales: about $5.4 million.”
“Ackley said auctions can be a ‘win-win’ for sellers and buyers in a sluggish market. ‘During the real-estate boom 21/2 years ago, the auction concept wouldn’t work,’ she said. ‘Now, with the real-estate market in hibernation, it makes great sense and has helped many real-estate companies liquidate their listings.’”
The News Journal. “After years of often record increases, taxable property values in Volusia and Flagler counties are expected to fall significantly this year as a result of the depressed real-estate market and new, voter-approved tax exemptions.”
“‘It’s kind of an ugly little roller coaster we’re on here,’ Flagler County Property Appraiser Jay Gardner said.”
“According to Volusia County Property Appraiser Morgan Gilreath’s projections, Amendment 1 will account for much of the anticipated tax base reduction for most Volusia taxing authorities, other than schools.”
“Schools are less affected because their tax base is not included in an additional $25,000 homestead exemption that was part of the amendment.”
“Gilreath said the 2008 tax roll is probably the most difficult he’s handled. Appraisers are still working neighborhood to neighborhood to try to nail down the values for the July 1 preliminary tax roll, which Gilreath said might reflect somewhat larger decreases.”
“‘We’ve never seen values dropping this rapidly, and values have continued to drop into ‘08, which means next year’s roll is going to see this happen again . . . unless we see something happen in ‘09,’ he said. ‘At the same time, we had the tax revolt and the Amendment 1 changes.’”
Let’s see if we can collectively come up with a new motto for the “Sunshine State”.
Florida: “Let it Burn”
Or:
‘After years of often record increases…Nothing makes sense anymore’
Yeah..the same thing can be said about the entire go go leverage, leverage, leverage economy America.
EVERBODY!…repeat after me
“Nothing can go wrong…nothung kin go bong..nutting can do rong..Oh Crap”
Florida - the Cautionary Example State
Here’s a must read from CNN/Fortune on the slippery slope to prison taken by a “man of integrity” on Wall Street. We need many more examples like this, in particular among the higher ups. Then maybe the financial system can get away from its current number-fudging casino action to juice the bonuses/profits.
Trader, father, veteran, convict:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/30/news/newsmakers/Trader_father_Morris.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008060212
That’s the last thing we need, putting non-violent people in prison. We need to nix the prison system completely, and force anyone guilty of a body or property crime to make reparations to the real victims. If a case is “The State of XXX versus Someone,” it’s a fraudulent trial. The only legal cases I accept are when an actual victim sues an actual criminal.
What did this guy do? Nothing. Investors stupidly risked their money (i.e., gambling) in a system with no declarable reality. This happens every day. You probably do it with your 401K, and you’re just as “guilty” of taking advantage of the lack of clarity.
I invest locally. I put money into businesses where I can actually audit the books, a random day’s receipts, and their income and payments. My money does fairly well, averaging over 25% on a given year across the board. My investments are real investments: they pay dividends, they give me a portion of stock with real power.
This man is guilty of nothing. Putting him in jail is like putting a pot smoker or a cocaine dealer in jail. They’ve hurt no one who wasn’t taking a risk to hurting themselves.
Fudging the numbers to make earnings or bonuses is fraud. It may be widespread and part of the culture on Wall Street, but that doesn’t make it less wrong. People like this guy have wrought much more harm to people than your average armed robber for sure. They have defrauded their company’s stockholders, and imperiled the financial system and wrought much of the excess in so-called liquidity. They should get a pass because they do it with a pen and computer while wearing a Savile Row suit instead of sticking someone up with a gun?
Punishment of wrongdoing is the only way to change the corrupt culture. If you love the current morally and (increasingly) fiscally bankrupt financial system though, I have no doubt why you would defend such crooks.
“What did this guy do? Nothing. Investors stupidly risked their money (i.e., gambling) in a system with no declarable reality. This happens every day. You probably do it with your 401K, and you’re just as “guilty” of taking advantage of the lack of clarity.”
One thing I neither have the opportunity or the lack of morals to do is fraudulently mark my investments. The equivalent would be systematically charging your employer for hours you don’t work. A bank employee who gets to mark his own assets is an invitation to fraud. And sadly it appears that when the numbers are big enough, far too many b school graduates are unwilling or unable to resist the temptation. Everybody else does it doesn’t work when you’re a kid, so why should it when you’re a master of the universe?
“What did this guy do? Nothing. Investors stupidly risked their money (i.e., gambling) in a system with no declarable reality. This happens every day. You probably do it with your 401K, and you’re just as “guilty” of taking advantage of the lack of clarity.”
One thing I neither have the opportunity nor the lack of morals to do is fraudulently mark my investments. The equivalent would be systematically charging your employer for hours you don’t work. A bank employee who gets to mark his own assets is an invitation to fraud. And sadly it appears that when the numbers are big enough, far too many b school graduates are unwilling or unable to resist the temptation. Everybody else does it doesn’t work when you’re a kid, so why should it when you’re a master of the universe?
Sorry for the triple post.
“Sunshine State”.
Florida: Where sunshine does not pay your mortgage!
“Alligators? We have em in more ways than one! ”
” Want a house? we have a lot !
” Buy now! ,as after this hurricane season there will less to choose from’
Florida: Where the Sun Shines Out of Realtors™
You’ve heard the saying, you can’t eat the scenery?
Florida: You Can’t Eat the Sunshine
How about
RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!
How about “Florida: Can’t give away the sunshine!”
Wait a minute, didn’t Florida realtors say these not too long ago:
-Price has reached a permanently high plateau
-1,000 people moves here each day
-They don’t make any more land
….
Keep it simple.
Florida: It’s different here
‘His plans made sense,’ said John Kingston, a Lake Suzy mortgage broker who helped assemble building lots for Lauro. ‘If he had gone through with them, he would be worth tens of millions of dollars today.’
‘Kingston says Lauro owes him $2.275 million for the land he contracted to sell in Deep Creek and Burnt Store Lakes, as well as $212,000 in deposits and $45,000 that Kingston used to buy building lots. ‘Nothing makes sense to me anymore,’ Kingston said. ‘Lauro had everything he needed to succeed, but he never built anything.’
If the deals would have made him millions, he would have done it John. Good luck getting your 2 million back. Lots of euro FBs in that story.
“Burnt Store Lakes” ?!?
sounds like some clint eastwood movie town hellhole.
I bet “Deep Creek” and “Burnt Store Lakes” sounded so sexy to Europeans and, well…prestigious! With names like that and being in Florida and all…it can only make money, right?
I bet “Deep Creek” and “Burnt Store Lakes” sounded so sexy to Europeans
They are now hearing a different name: Up the creek with no paddle!
LOL!
Welcome to Lago you sonofab!tch!
( High Plains Drifter )
For “Spaghetti Western” fans that was filmed at Lake Mono, CA. It has an almost perfect “companion” on the NV side called Walker Lake, if you’re ever taking the backroads to Vegas.
“If the deals would have made him millions, he would have done it John.”
If a frog had wings, it wouldn’t bump it’s azz when he hops.
I almost feel bad for the couple from Chiefland, which is one of the most isolated rural parts of Florida. I bet they thought they’d found the modern-day equivalent of the philosopher’s stone, and in their greed all they did was get fleeced worse than any stereotype.
Snake - Chiefland and Perry are nice small towns in the middle of nowhere. They’re both pretty much the same as they were 50 years ago, except maybe the Burger King or McDs on the east side of 27. Those are the areas where you can still meet, or have pointed out to you, people who haven’t been outside the county more than once or twice in their lifetimes. It’s even more so farther into the armpit, but I’m most familiar with those two towns from having driven through them so often.
That’s how I know of Chiefland — just avoiding the interstate a few times out of curiosity and driving north on U.S. 27 through Cross City and Perry. I’ve also driven on all the major east-west state highways in an attempt to avoid I-4, and gotten to see a lot more of Florida in the process, places like Arcadia and Okeechobee and Lake Wales.
“We just want to get back to a normal market”
Yes, usually after an out of control coke, alcohol and ecstasy fueled binge that lands oneself in the back of an ambulance and ultimately re-hab… yes, “normal” ( or just being alive ) starts to look good.
It would be especially nice to get your spouse, home and job back WITHOUT any legal consequences or court hassles OR having to go through the drudgery of re-hab while keeping your options open for weekend/recreational use/abuse as well.
Sorry lady, you’ll have to hit rock-bottom, regulate your industry, give up the 6% and get some standards in “lending standards” before anything remotely resembling “normal” comes your way. Oh and good luck at “Promises”!
You sound like you’ve had an interesting life.
Oh it’s been “interesting” alright! I suppose the reason I likened it to more obvious social diseases is that I was a trader in the 90’s. I remember young college kids coming in on “casual Friday” still wearing the same shirt they had on from THURSDAY! ( washing the puke out of their tie in the men’s room )
Some of these kids had a different vehicle for every day of the week but were privately hitting me up for a little gas money. It was sad and as the “old guy” ( old, defined as actually over 30 ) I felt obligated to explain this euphoria simply wasn’t going to last and they ‘might’ want to “squirrel” a few of those nice paychecks away?
The stories I’d heard over the following years as to where some of these young guys wound up was truly sad.
hey DinOR
any of ‘em end up as bicycle messengers, speeding around town in angst having traded away dad’s life savings . .. . ?!?!
aqius,
That would have actually been a “success” story! There were several suicides, legions of divorces and a lot of substance abuse. Lots of anger and those that remained in the industry went through numerous job changes as firms dried up and blew away etc.
That’s why when people asked if I might be interested in the New and Improved Bubble… I said, no thanks, I’ll pass. You see I just got the JT out of my azz and really wasn’t looking for another?
I felt obligated to explain this euphoria simply wasn’t going to last and they ‘might’ want to “squirrel” a few of those nice paychecks away?
Did any of them bother to listen? I know you wouldn’t have gotten thru to *me* in my 20s without a two-by-four. (And I still require a one-by-three in my 40s.)
JP,
Oh there were a few but I suspect they would have salted away a few bucks with me or without me? Easy money draws out the worst in people and I had to see these people at their worst day in and day out for years.
But I swear the first realtor/mort. bkr/appraiser/title co. employee that whines to ME.. I’m going to cave their skull in! Like what part of Irrational Exuberance didn’t you get?
Why should anyone squirrel away any paychecks. If you and I are saving, there’s no need for anyone else to save! Congress will simply confiscate our money and give it to them (as they’ve already started to do with low interest rates, tax forgiveness, and bailout schemes)
‘We just want to get back to a normal market.’ I can almost hear the pleading, wimpering, pathetic voice uttering those words.
It’s like a Junkie who want’s another high or an alcoholic that needs his alcohol.
The real estate industry cannibalized the next 5-10 years of its own future profits back in ‘02-’07.
Let’s hope they spent and invested it wisely.
“Let’s hope they spent and invested it wisely.”
See above by DinOR.
Uhhh, I did…I was replying to his post.
Maybe I should have added the /sarcasm tag.
NoSingleone - Sorry I misinterpreted the sarcasm in your post. It was entirely appropriate.
The industry as a whole may be fortunate if it only cannibalized 5-10 years of future profits. However, how many businesses that made big profits in the ‘02-’07 period will be around for those future profits? Those profits, when they return, may be made by either new entrants or smaller businesses that weren’t as heavily invested in bubble business practices.
“Let’s hope they spent and invested it wisely.”
Well at least most of the female realtors have chests with a half-life of 1,000 years so that investment at least didn’t go poof up their nose. And in 20 years it’ll be a boon for the medical industry as they all develop breast cancer.
LOL!
1 in 9 women get breast cancer in their lifetime.
Silicone was never linked to a disease except vanity and trial lawyer greed.
I always laughed at the bafoons who said it was the cause of their auto immune disease. The sand has more silicone and nobody sued the beach.
silicon =/ silicone
NR
real estate industry cannibalized the next 5-10 years of its own future ??
And not just residential….Commercial can be included with that also…Rampant speculation even in the tiniest of markets…5% CAP rates for some starbucks building in Podunk America is just ridicules…
We will soon be seeing the Govt didnt here in FL.
–
“At a ‘Get Motivated’ seminar in December 2005..(an) associate suggested that the Prevatts attend a three-day seminar in Tampa that focused on ‘how to get rich in real estate,’ the Prevatts’ lawsuit states.”
In 2006 I was staying at Marriot in SD and most of the people were wearing the badges ‘how to get rich in real estate.’ Many of them looked like losers.
Jas
They could have switched them for the old Herbalife badges: “Lose weight now, aske me how.” The end-results of both productlines appear to be the same: rapid weight loss.
And not just a mere Herbalife badge, but the one with that flashing red light!
I never saw one of those. Darn.
“Many of them looked like losers.”
That’s because they WERE losers. They were targetted because they had little to no education/street smarts/experience. The free seminar stoked their greed and unwarranted arrogance. They shelled out $24k for “information” a retarded monkey would know was a bogus scam. And then they went massively in debt (aided by non-existant lending standards), while providing no actual productive service, turning their nose up at hard-working productive members of society, considering them to be unsophisticated brain-dead zombies.
And now they can’t figure out what went wrong. While I think Juilia Child should be brought back from the dead to work over the nutt-s@cks of those seminar presenters with a meat cleaver, I have absolutely no sympathy for the condesending idiots who got sucked in. I think Jail time for being criminally stupid would be fair (not to mention I’m sure many of them lied on the mortgage contracts).
Testify, brother! Well said.
Just like Casey Serin, who loved getting his ego stroked and then fell for the Scaminar circuit and the Robert Kiyosucki get rich quick claptrap.
Our President has shown us that evaluating a situation is always secondary to gut feeling, gotta go with the gut that got you here. sort of thinking.
________________________________________________________________
“Cape Coral took the roughest knock, down 27 percent in taxable value. The Lehigh Acres area is down 23 percent. ‘I wasn’t surprised,’ Wilkinson said. ‘It was sort of a gut feeling I was having.’”
I doubt it started with him. But he gets the blame anyways.
I’d go w a.
which means less money for local governments to spend on services(a) or a tax-rate increase(b)
There is tons of fat that can and will be cut, and that’s a good thing. It’s fine for the regular folks to have to cut back, but heaven forbid city, county,State & Federal Gov. cut back. They will bitch and moan on and on about it though. Tuff S–t is what I say.
“One clear measure is in Manatee County’s schools. In the district’s migrant program, funded by grant money apart from the school budget, there are about 1,400 students migrant students enrolled this school year. In the 1980s and ’90s, there were an estimated 6,000 migrant students.”
I found that to be an eye opener. Not only is it a huge drop from recent high levels, but even from older lower levels.
packman
here in Sacramento, CA my childrens former elem school was dominated by over 75% hispanics. many illegals.
now, I’m not some heartless bastard trying to deprive a child of an education, but what galled me was the realization that all of these kids needed so much extra instructional time to bring them up to standards, the other “regular” students were sacrificed. teachers can only do so much with limited resources.
everyday in the afternoon, dozens of welfare mothers sat with strollers (more new babies, the ed staff was THRILLED at the job security) waiting to pick up their enrolled children. they all lived in a couple of nearby section 8 apartments within easy walking distance. great! the writing is on the wall, so to speak, of where this school is going.
when I transferred my children out of that school I advised the asst principle he should just convert into an ESL primary to cope with the obvious existing situation. but what personally rankled was the “gimme gimme” mentality of these “new arrivals”. ex; I suggested that since most parents claim poverty, why not send out a flyer asking for volunteers to help spruce-up the school w/labor? plenty of landscaping or maint was needed. think there was a response? OF COURSE NOT!
the tired excuse of fear of INS/ICE was used but c’mon, no parent (certainly not me) would report any volunteer to Customs simply for trying to HELP OUT their school …. in fact we would probably faint dead away at the sight of any questionable hispanics turning out to give-back to the education system.
this commentary applies mainly to illegals. err, “Mexican Nationals”.
now flame away.
No flames coming from this HBB-er. In fact, I wholeheartedly agree with you. I’ve seen more than a little of the entitlement mentality among our own crop of illegals, err, Mexican nationals, here in Tucson.
It’s been a shift. My family came as refugees in the early ’60s. My parents took and expected no government handouts. In fact, my mom would lecture us about how shameful it was to take “welfare” like so many of our neighbors, how it was nobler to work, even if it was three jobs, in order to have needs (not wants) met. My frugal immigrant parents worked really hard at menial jobs, yet never got into big debt adn paid cash for everything except their retirement home mortgage–cash for cars, furniture, etc– until they died. They felt that if you want something, work and save for it.
As I recall, that was the mentality of that whole group of refugees from that era in our group of friends/relatives. No handouts. Don’t expect freebies. Work your ass off. Eat rice and beans. Be frugal. Save.
The later waves seem to really come expecting goodies from Uncle Sam. It’s something shameful, I think, to have the benefits of the US–freedoms galore, opportunity–and yet expect a federal teat. Personally, I’m very grateful to be in this country, and I figure my job is to be as good and prudent a citizen as I can be.
We’re not all with hands out.
And, for the record, I don’t think we should be educating illegals at taxpayer expense. People’s taxes for schools are pretty dang high (I paid 2400 just to the school board in my country in my very high 2007 taxes). 2400. Sheesh, I don’t think my mom paid that much for a Catholic school for me!
Relax aqius, I’ll say it for you.
If any of those kids were illegal criminals, they should be thrown out of the country. Period.
mines and razor wire don’t collect pensions
Ah,
who is going to pay the retirement and wipe the asses of all the old jello eating nursing home white people?
I’m surprised no one mentioned this phrase:
“…funded by grant money…”
GRANT money. Where did this grant money come from? The orange trees? Almost all of the time, that is TAXPAYER money. What really gets me irate is when some sleaze “donates” $5,000 “seed” money for a $100,000 “grant,” where the other $95,000 is extorted from the taxpayers. And the SOB gets credit for doing a good thing! Ya wanna be a philanthropist, buddy? Donate the entire $100K out of your own pocket - and by the way, don’t try to deduct it from your taxes. How’s that work for you?
‘We drew a lot of people with dollar signs in their eyes.’”
It should have said, “We conned a lot of people with dollar signs in their eyes with our hype that real estate will never fall in value!”
…people with dollar signs in their eyes..
Have that totally different dazed and confused blank STARE when the fast money they imagined and counted on, slips from their dullard mental grasp ..along with their upfront “investments”
There is so much RE slime, fraud and mold growing in Florida that Disneyworld should be legally required to issue rubber hip boots and hand wipes to visitors at the airports
and look at the junk they continue to build in Sarasota I can tell you the economy sucks here in SW Florida and Sarasota is one of the “wealthy” areas of Floriada
A new luxury mall at I75 and university blvd?
The Westfield Group is taking no chances in the race for Sarasota’s luxury retail market. It is a high-stakes race, one that could decide who draws the best boutiques and the most well-heeled customers in Southwest Florida.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080522/BUSINESS/805220594/1661
“Foreclosure actions have been filed against 17 of the 112 units..”
Gets to a point, prices down by more than half, almost everyone should just walk. Foreclosure rates up near 20% could be a tipping point. How can they put up with neighbors paying so much less. The place is just not going to be anything like what was expected.
“Jeffrey J. Lauro put almost all the pieces together to build as many as 1,400 condominiums and single-family homes in Charlotte and Sarasota counties during the real estate boom, say people who did business with the 37-year-old entrepreneur.”
“In one of the bankruptcy cases, 177 investors from England, Scotland and Ireland are claiming that Lauro took their deposits totaling more than $6 million and never brought the homes and condos he promised out of the ground.”
______________________________________________________________
You’d think one of the 177 investors would have wanted to see one of the 1,400 condos or houses, but apparently not.
This decade was probably the Golden Age for financial fraud…
Are you referring to the same Scotland from where some of my paternal and maternal ancestors came from?
You’ve no doubt heard stories about those thrifty Scots. I’m here to tell you that those stories are true. In fact, such thrift is hard-wired into our DNA.
Hence, I’m shocked! shocked! that some Scots would let their money go to something like this. Seems that they’re letting the standards slip over in Scotland The Brave.
“At that seminar, the Prevatts were persuaded to pay $23,995 to attend a more intensive…seminar on real estate investing. Lauro was one of the key speakers at that March 2006 gathering, and he ultimately persuaded the Prevatts to invest in three homes in North Port, the Prevatts’ lawsuit states.”
$24k to attend a more intensive seminar? Why do people like this actually think someone has a “magical formula for getting rich” that is worth this sort of outlay. The magic formula in all cases is the method of bilking these people by selling them the magic formula.
If the formula worked, why would they be wasting time teaching seminars rather than trolling around the Med in a luxury yacht.
How do people who are this stupid ever acquire enough money to even play in the game?
Q: How do people who are this stupid ever acquire enough money to even play in the game?
A: Heloc
Ding ding ding, we have a winner.
From what I’ve heard, getting rich only requires two four-letter words:
H-A-R-D W-O-R-K
Three. “Hard” “work” AND “luck.” The million/billion aires I’ve met acknowledge that luck played a part. Not that it can’t happen without luck, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.
Agreed. I know plenty of people who worked their butts off trying to start businesses and failed repeatedly.
Well just like Casey Serin, they put it on their credit card and then promptly defaulted on it? I agree, there is no “magic formula”.
Oh speaking of which there was an article yesterday of nat’l interest I’d like to get people’s opinions on? A young electician in Central Wisconsin found what he believes is the much talked about “booty” hidden during The Depression. The bills were quite deteriorated but he thinks it’s around $1,700? How much had the land they were buried on increased in value? How much would it have gone up had it been GOLD? What if they were stock certificates? Weird huh?
Evidently $1,700 would have been a fortune in the Depression, now it looks like a really bad night in Vegas.
Post a link, DinOr, if you have one, would you? I love to read about buried treasure, and booty and such excitements.
I used to run around digging for loot when I was a lass. (All those pirates having hidden their ill-gotten gains in Utarrr, you know.) Actually, it was ghost town/abandoned mine territory, so I COULD have found treasure! Just keep digging! Was my motto. Actually, it still is my motto, come to think of it.
Anyway, back in lass-dom I would make maps, and find a shovel and go marching out there into the wilderness. Or into the backyard, which was the same thing. I can’t even begin to calculate how many times someone, people, goats, horses, etc., would be innocently wandering along and then fall into a big ol’ deep treasure pit and start shouting and cussing me out. See, I only liked the digging part. I never found the ‘filling the hole back in’ part very fascinating and worthy of the attention of a treasure-seeker such as me. Besides, what if it grew some treasure somehow? I wanted to look back in there again sometime, just in case.
Olympiagal,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/02/AR2008060200563.html
The incredible thing is that I HAVE found quite a bit of “treasure” over the years! When I was stationed in the Philippines I was in our tech. library studying for an advancement exam and came across one of those yellow Gov’t envelopes like income tax returns used to come in?
There were (8) $100 dollar bills and 50’s totaling $1,200. None of which had an issue date after 1968. So almost 20 years of being tucked away in a 4 page fold-out schematic for arresting gear wiring!? Obviously ’some’ Vietnam-era vet had put it there to hide it from his wife or something? There was no name on the envelope ( clear plastic window ) and I REALLY needed the money at the time as I was due to transfer out and my oldest daughter was just born. As it turns out our GRAND daughter was born just yesterday so I guess things all worked out.
Oh additionally I found $90 fluttering around the Air Terminal parking ramp and knew it had to have been from a flight earlier in the day from Yukuska, Japan. One of the bills was a $50 so we knew it couldn’t have come from our own “money bird” that came in twice monthly.
At the time the DOD wasn’t keen on locals counterfeiting our $20’s let alone our $50’s so a twenty was the highest denomination they let circulate amongst the G.I’s in the P.I.
The only thing I ever discovered, when I was a young kid digging in the back yard of a farm house, was an old septic tank. Cured that interest, for good.
The article I read said the bills he found were silver certificates.
“How do people who are this stupid ever acquire enough money to even play in the game?”
I’ll field the answer - that’s an easy question!
First you line up a dishonest investment banker budy to fund your scheme.
Second, you do some research to find bunches of really stupid people. Or else you do mass mailings and let the stupid people sort themselves out by who shows up to your “seminar”.
Third, you have preapproved financing for your $24k “can’t fail” BS all ready for the stupid people to sign on the dotted line.
While this next part can be skipped, the sophisticated scammer will have this all lined out as a way to leverage their payout from number three above. You go to some crap hole in the middle of nowhere and buy a bunch of decrepant houses for peanuts that you then sell for butt loads of money to the above mentioned stupid people by organizing “investment tours”. In need not be mentioned that all this is financed through your unscrupulous banker friend.
Next, your banker buddy slices and dices (like Julia Child) the resulting mortgages, mangling them beyond any possible recognition, and then rebundles them as some form of sophisticated debt package (the term “sophisticated” is the important part here - it doesn’t actually mean anything, but it makes the prospective debt buyer feel like he/she is infinitely more intelligent than everyone who doesn’t buy the debt package).
Banker buddy pays off ratings agencies to lie about the quality of the underlieing loans.
Lastly, your banker buddy unloads the bound-to-fail-crap-mortgage-sophisticated-mangled-debt bundle to equally stupid and unsuspecting “investor” speculators in the stock market who are too smart to be taken in by the obvious real estate seminar scams.
And now you’re back to where you started, except you’re loaded and can leverage even more proffits from your next round of seminar scams. Rinse, repeat, ad nausium, ad infinitum…
Or simply become a mortgage broker YOURSELF and cut out the middle man? As the tide washes out we’ll find a lot of the scammers were on the inside.
“$24k to attend a more intensive seminar? Why do people like this actually think someone has a “magical formula for getting rich” that is worth this sort of outlay. The magic formula in all cases is the method of bilking these people by selling them the magic formula.”
Ditto for all the metaphysical “prosperity teachers” (”The Secret,” anyone?) ,” whose only prosperity comes from marketing prosperity “secrets.” None of them made money before going on the road show, and none of them would have money if suckers didn’t pay them in desperation. It’s the same scam used by ministers (tithe ten percent or whatever and the Universe or God will pay it back many times over), and it never fails to work.
You know, it amazes me at how people never learn, and I mean NEVER!! I know of a young couple who were conned by some so-called “Baron” into working for him for free and someday they’d go to his big castle in Bavaria and could work for free there for him. I’m not making this up. These same people ran Renaissance Fairs and were totally into it before meeting the “Baron.”
Well, the Baron gave them the boot and now they’re really really into the Secret thing and are also trying to set up a webpage where they’ll get rich from AdSense ads. Who knows what kind of content they’re planning, it’s the ads that are important.
They were previously into the prosperity preaching thing, too. The only ones the Word of Faith movement makes rich are the preachers. A friend told me that the Word of Faith churches are the poorest in the nation, yet their preachers are the wealthiest. Go figure.
To me, people like this are just plain lazy. They want something for nothing and they deserve their failures.
Or grasping at straws. The secretary at a Science of Mind church in Tampa told me that every time they had a prosperity seminar–complete with the usual tithing promises–she would get lots of tithe checks that ended up bouncing.
I actually do think our thoughts attract and repel people and experiences, but not in the simplistic fashion claimed by New Age hucksters. The notion that everyone can be rich just by thinking “correctly” ignores the fact that somebody has to be poor enough to actually work and accomplish things. If everyone is lounging in luxury, who is going to bring them their drinks?
YOU CAN’T LOSE WITH THE STUFF I USE:
http://www.revike.com
just moved in 5/15/08 in Boynton Beach. Got the Lis Pendens notice on the landlord today from the process server. Guess I gotta find another place to rent?
..
Uhhh…not yet.
For you, the fun begins.
You can start by making a copy of the LP before handing it over to the landlord. Send the LP papers to him instead of the rent check.
Don’t pay another dime in rent. Not one cent. When the landlord tries to evict you you can show the LP in court and tell the judge that you are being forced out by the LP; as the landlord didn’t do his part by paying the rent to secure your residence.
A coworker did a similiar thing here in Polk County and ended up staying rent free this spring in a 2006 home for almost six months. She nearly had to have the 23-year old landlord arrested; as he showed up in the front lawn wanting her out immediately. Can’t do it that way down here, which the greenhorn Trump wannabe soon found out.
At this point in time, I would “guess” the lease is effectively null and void….but I am just guessin’.
At any rate I would not pay the rent and would save up a couple of months rent to cover your new move.
Good luck.
..
Right on. “Self help” is not permitted (Fla. Stat 82.01). The landlord can only get possession by evicting you (Fla. Stat. 83.59), and you are entitled to notice (Fl. Stat. 83.56). The landlord has the obligation to deliver “possession” to you which implies that he HAS possession. While the Lis Pendens doesn’t necessarily mean that he isn’t entitled to possession, it certainly raises a question for a judge giving them a reason to go slow.
Interesting the 23 y/o Trump was POed by someone doing to him what he was doing to someone else.
Thanks for info. Judge would likley frown on me living rent free. Landlord could file in small claims and that nick on my credit could remain for awhile. Any idea how much time I would be given before an actual eviction took place?
For next time, so to speak…
I have given serious thought to asking for a credit check on a potential landlord, should I be required to move from my current rental before I’m ready. The tables have turned in the credit and property-ownership market. Now, the rental agents are likely to get all uppity with you because, my land, this has never happened before. “But it’s happening now, ma’am.”
Hope you didn’t give them a deposit. If so, you’re probably screwed.
most times you rent you pay the deposit up front.
We have to move and have to pay a 50% remaining lease break fee. Lukcy we signed a 6 month lease and only have 2 months left. I considered skipping out but need the reference for the next place.
There are a lot of different opinions about that here. As for mine, I congratulate you for planning to honor the terms of your lease, and for reasons beyond your credit report. Presumably you didn’t rent from a sleazy bank or mortgage broker or Wall Street hedge fund, but from a straightforward landlord who deserves to have the contract honored, just as he/she presumably has honored their half of the deal with you.
Listen to LP and maybe save a few bucks in the process.
Please remember guys, it wasn’t all that long ago that we joked about having the LANDLORD’S credit checked before signing a lease agreement!
Turns out it was true. ( In ways ) I found myself victim of similar “weak hands” when my LL realized he was in WAY over his head and dumped his condos because NO ONE could qualify for the expensive homes he had sitting! ( May 2007 )
The only way I can say for sure you could be assured your bubble-sitting, sideline strategy was going to work was toughing it out in a damn HOTEL ROOM and placing your prized possessions in a “U-Store-It”. Fergin’ bastards.
i see houses for rent on Craig’s list that are also on the foreclosure list for the county. Scary stuff and makes renting that much more complicated in the short term.
i see houses for rent on Tampa Craig’s list that are also on the foreclosure list for the county. Scary stuff and makes renting that much more complicated in the short term.
People doing the dirty like that need to be REPORTED somewhere. You can’t rent out something that is being foreclosed upon!
I’m in a similar situation, but am not moving. The LL lives 100 miles away and I have all my stuff in storage and can be out fast if need be. She’s not paying the bank, so I quit paying her a month ago. She rented the house furnished, and is coming to get her furniture this weekend. I’m leaving for the interim and then coming back until the bank says I have to leave. She hasn’t yet given the house back to the bank, though, so my situation is behind yours. I’m hoping the bank is so busy they don’t figure it all out for months, plus the bank went BK a year ago, so who knows who even owns it at this point. Plus I’m out in the middle of nowhere, I bet the bank can’t even find my place.
It’s stressful, but protect yourself and it’s not as bad (be ready to move quickly). I don’t know your circumstances, but I’m going to ride it out and see what happens. My main concern is that I have pets, but we can hopefully find a place fast if need be. I didn’t give her a deposit, so no worry there. Best of luck!
Though I regret your circumstances, this is getting really interesting. From Day One, Ben’s blog has been like the old TV series, “Early Edition.” Whatever we read or talked about here happened later on, just as the consensus predicted.
Now this.
As a fellow fence-sitting, bubble-believing renter, I sure hope my landlord can hang in there. There are far more hopeful LLs than tenants around here, but moving is a giant pain.
If you’re lucky, her mortgage is wrapped up in an SIV owned by entities from 23 countries and they’ll never get agreement on how to handle the paper, or at least not until after you’ve found another nice place.
All good Ideas..Stop paying the rent until you find out who owns the house.
Have the Landlord Arrested if he tries to kick you out or changes the locks..or cuts off the utilities…its Illegal in all 50 states!
Only a sheriff with a court order can evict you and only after YOU LOSE in court.
Living rent free is a NO NO with a judge, so most judges will order you to pay something called use and occupancy.
NEVER tell a judge you owe nothing …ZERO…..That will PO a judge more then anything…..Instead walk into court with the rent money or proof of a bank account that YOU DIDN’T SPEND THE MONEY…and you should be OK.
some long-ago former co-workers & I were forced to attend some stupid feel good happy horseshit motivational speaker seminars at Tampa Convention Center.
After sitting through a few rah-rah speakers, I’ll never forget what simple wisdom came from the women sitting to me in the audience;
” hell, I dont need no grinnin jackasses up on the stage to motivate me to work. I gotta pile ‘o bills on my desk at home that does that just fine! ”
(no, we were NOT govt workers. private sector)
stupid feel good happy horseshit motivational speaker
Preach it, aquis!
Oh, god, that reminds me of this horrible day-long training I had at a government agency. The training was based on “Who Moved My Cheese?”. Yes, all day long.
Here in Minot, ND (population 35-40K, depending on how far into the surrounding area you go), as I have posted before, the economy has been driven by other things, notably:
1. An Air Force Base that is being assigned an increasing mission (1000 more jobs here in the next year),
2. High food prices supporting the agriculture industry,
3. Big oil companies moving here because of the oil boom in this state (the Bakken formation).
So, our housing situation is actually the opposite of most: too little inventory, somewhat increasing prices (though not too bad yet).
I’ve just left the Air Force (in order to stay in the area in order to retain joint custody of my children), and in order to continue paying outrageous child support (yes, believe it or not, even though I have exactly equal custody and equal time, I have to pay child support to their mother, who doesn’t do a thing), I’ve had to leave my line of work, because there’s no work for meteorologists in my town except active duty AF.
I’m actually considering becoming a realtor here (please, no flames, I have a serious question for you). I’m an extremely conservative spender, a hard worker, someone who cares about integrity, helping people make a wise decision (not just manipulating them by emotion, not pushing them to extend themselves beyond their what their income, savings, etc., can realistically support). After a year of reading this blog, I’m concerned that a housing bubble may actually just be BEGINNING here in Minot.
Is there anything I can do as one realtor to hinder a bubble forming? I assume prices will rise sharply because of increased demand and low supply, but I’d like to prevent the insanity that most of the rest of the country has experienced. Anyone have any specific suggestions?
How can I be a realtor that stands out from the awful Realtwhore crowd (aside from the obvious things like NOT saying, “Buy now or be priced out forever,” or “Real Estate always goes up,” etc.)? What are specific ways I can help both buyers and sellers?
If you are starting an increase in prices in your location, it will be a different thing than the bubble that has happened elsewhere. The run up you describe will be caused by an increase in demand fueled by jobs moving into the area without limited housing stock available to cover the increase. The real bubble was fueled by artificial demand created by some combination of ultra low interest rates/lack of credit standards/speculation.
How to stand out? Tell people the truth. Tell them why the bubble existed in other places. Keep info about the job situtation in your area. Admit that the agriculture situation could change if prices cause more corn/soybeans/wheat/whatever to be planted worldwide.
And a strategy? Find out who it is that USAA recommends when members call and ask for a referral to a realtor in your area. Work with him or her. Sounds like a good niche. I’d say try to be the person that USAA recommends, but I think they prefer people who are already established in an area. I asked for a recommendation from them once. They referred me to a group. The group put me with an incompetant newbie. When I told USAA that she was brand new (and a disaster) they were horrified.
Duh.
without limited housing stock = with limited housing stock
Polly,
Thanks for the USAA tip. I’m also going to try to get on the local base’s referral list.
I believe being truthful/having integrity, although it will turn some people off, will ultimately do many people much more good, and lead to more referrals. I refuse to fleece people.
Greg
I think just telling people the truth can lead to problems if you don’t explain things, but if you are willing to explain, you will have many fewer problems. This blog is a great source of nice concise explanations of what is going on. Yeah, some people believe anything they are told, but I think you have a good chance of earning some credibility by putting in the extra time. The fact that reality is creeping into the media will help.
You are going to have to have a lot of information including info about new jobs in the area and how much construction has gone on in the past few years and even about what sort of loans people were using, but people buying a house should be willing to listen for a bit. It is a lot of work, but, as you said, you are willing to do it.
Hey there Greg
congrats to you on wanting to be an ethical real estate agent! if I was in the area I’d give you my business. question; do you think the pop base you mentioned is large enough to support a steady, livable income?
the reason I ask is because those child support courts get mighty pissed & can make yer life a living hell in so many ways, if the cash cow goes dry. trust me; been there, done that, STILL fighting Florida’s gender-biased corrupt system to get a long-overdue correction. (remember the Elian Gonzalez debacle)
** side note ; you are wise to stay local for yer child. I made the mistake of moving back to CA post divorce and my ex wiped me out of my son’s life 3 months later. hard to fight back 3000 miles away. and unless you have a very strong WRITTEN custody deal AND a good lawyer, a local court will not help a father in custody issues if he is out of state. but, as you mentioned, they will eagerly reach for his paycheck … heh heh !! **
anyway, not trying to hijack the thread into child custody/support issue. you seem like a stand-up guy. good luck to you, Greg.
Aquis,
Thx for the comments. The courts here, although not great, are not as bad as they could be. The judge in fact ordered shared custody (my attorney said it was the first time he’s ever seen that, either before or since). Regarding the money, my only other apparent option here (and I’ve been racking my brains here as I’ve been working a TV weather job - major low pay) is to sell life insurance with Northwestern Mutual, apparently a reputable company. See the other point I added below (11:18) about how the Century 21 broker actually offered me a 1-yr guarantee. I can use this time to continue to try to search for a different career if it seems pretty dry.
And yeah, it will literally be over my dead (or jailed) body that I would ever let my ex get full custody of our three kids.
Is there anything I can do as one realtor to hinder a bubble forming? No, IMHO.
How can I be a realtor that stands out from the awful Realtwhore crowd?? Be straight, understand your area, never rush someone to make a decision. If you think the other agent is full of it, tell them so.
One important detail I left out:
The Century 21 broker here offered me a 1-year contract where she will guarantee me $5K/mo. (gross) as long as I am putting in full-time work (she said most of her realtors are hobby-ists). If I complete the year earning less than that, I don’t owe her anything. If I make more, the brokerage gets it.
If at any time I’m even or above, I can choose to go on straight commission.
That scenario says to me SHE expects I could make more than that and is willing to risk one year on it just to get someone who will work.
Greg, just be careful and know that any such contract is subject to collapse and not being honored if the RE industry there tanks. Save your money.
Greg, I didn’t have time to read this, but saw a few key words about VA and military, maybe it’s something that is of interest…
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/05/windup-wednesday_28.html
Lost In UT,
Thanks for the link: that confirmed for me something I was told in this town - when credit was easy, people stopped using VA. Why? Because they got lazy!! They didn’t want the hassle!
Because prices never got outrageous here, there haven’t been many foreclosures. But the VA program is so good, if I ever do choose to buy, you can bet I’ll be using the VA. And I would be recommending it as well.
Also, this article reminded me of a question you mentioned earlier regarding how often AF folks are reassigned to other bases in other cities. In the AF now, it is a mandate for personnel moving within the continental US (CONUS) to stay in place at least 4 years, and it takes something huge to get an exception. That’s a cost-cutting measure instituted within the last 18-24 months.
Also, Minot is a base that many people remain at for many years beyond four, because a majority of the jobs here (related to ICBMs or B-52s) only exist at two or three bases in the world. Additionally, hundreds (bordering on a few thousand) people have come to this base and liked the area so much they stayed here permanently (or moved on, retired, and came back here).
So the AF population here is not as transient as other bases and other services.
Thanks again.
As I’m going on my hols to Spain in a couple of weeks I thought to myself how is the home of Sun , Sangria and Sand coping
Well Fitch tell me
Fitch Ratings affirmed Spain’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings at ‘AAA’ with stable outlook, as despite a worsening economic outlook sovereign creditworthiness remains underpinned by EMU membership and strong public finances.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/06/02/afx5068911.html
and only a Doom Sayer would think they are wrong, but just for the Doom Sayers amongst you
Spain’s economic slowdown could intensify as credit restrictions and financial distress complicate a sharp housing sector correction, Spanish Economy Secretary David Vegara said on Tuesday.
Financial turmoil that broke out last summer in global markets has increased in the last few months and persists in many areas, Vegara told central bankers gathered in Barcelona.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7558811
Spain said it would run smaller public sector budget surpluses from 2009 to 2011 as state coffers are drained by a steep economic slowdown and a 10 billion euro ($15.5 billion) fiscal stimulus plan.
The forecast followed data on Friday showing Spain’s current account deficit, the world’s second-largest in absolute terms, ballooned 65 percent in March from a year earlier amid worsening global economic conditions and the worst domestic downturn in 15 years
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7550934
MADRID - The Spanish car industry on Monday said the sector was on “maximum alert” after sales plummeted 24.3 percent in May from a year ago in what was the biggest fall on record for the month.
Faconauto, the association of automobile franchise holders, said the sector was looking at a potential “disaster” due to the slowdown in the Spanish economy sparked by a slump in the housing market and its knock-on effect on consumer confidence and durable goods purchases.
http://www.expatica.com/es/articles/news/Sales-of-cars-in-Spain-plunge-24_3-percent.html
Thw world’s economy was propped up by home prices. Talk about a ponzi scheme
“The problem, he said, is the inventory of homes, more than 3,500 of them. ‘The lenders will have to sell below market value,’ Bonkowski said. ‘While (the properties) are out there, it’s going to be an albatross on everybody’s neck.’”
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Z_u7VGiMO0U
You know, I keep hearing the phrase “below market value,” and it just doesn’t sound any less moronic with repetition. Instead it irritates like nails on a blackboard.
The bottom will be in when the morons no longer talk about houses that sell “below market value.”
I apologize for the imposition, however I am starting to get really concerned about the situation in the US.
A question for Hoz and the the rest of you experienced HBers.
How much creditability should one give to the info concerning the economy on this website:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
He is profane, however he sounds like he has legitimate concerns and solutions. I am not interested in his market timing, charts, etc. Do you think that is general observations of market direction and his opinion of the US on track?
I am not the sharpest crayon in the box, as been stated by others. I just have this horrible feeling that he may be on spot.
Should I be worried, as a non-econ and non-financial person?
Thanks in advance.
Ben, whats your opinion?
http://www.chrismartenson.com/
The site above has an interesting “crash course” of videos of a few minutes each, explaining the Fed, money creation, etc.
He is saying the economy can’t support all the current debt etc., and compares trends of what is happening over the course of US history. It is pretty interesting actually, but I’d be interested in hearing if anyone has any criticisms of his message . . .
I’ve been following his thoughts for almost two years and, in general, he’s been right on the money on almost all issues.
Rogue,
If his record is that good, then I am really worried!
Thanks for your impute.
I guess we are truly FU*KED!!!
I guess I should plan beyond my current plans of A, B and C.
Profane? Nothing he said there would be a match for my sailor’s tongue when I get going…
And yes, he puts all the right people/entities in their rightful places.
I really agree with this one spot on:
“Government CPI and employment statistics. They’re lies. My food bill has doubled in the last four years. Unemployed people who have “given up” are still unemployed. Persons who are employed part-time for “economic” reasons (that is, they were told by their boss they’re no longer full-time employees) are effectively unemployed from their former position, and their earnings power has decreased. 3% price inflation eh? Uh huh. Pull the other one. Yes, I know, computers (per CPU cycle) are much cheaper. I can’t eat my computer.”
Yes, exactly…
I have never seen this guys work before ,but I agree with it 100% . The corruption has gone to far and the people just need to get all these lying scoundrels out of these power positions . The powers know the public can be brainwashed into believing anything .
“I am not the sharpest crayon in the box, as been stated by others.”
Now there’s a very refreshing dose of humility, not that this blog is plagued by ego problems as are so many others.
His comments about Ron Paul sound disingenuous to me. A red herring. There are people who will tell you nine things that are true and then you’ll believe the tenth, which is not. Or perhaps he had a confrontational manner. As someone who has worked on the RP campaign, I can tell you that it is very unlikely the writer was treated rudely by RP staffers, out of hand. It might be that they had reached the point where petitions no longer could serve a purpose, but is it very unlikely they would have been less than tactful about that. Ask yourself, if this writer is a loyal RP supporter, why would he trash his hero because some staffers got in his face? Doesn’t work that way, at least among adults.
How can I be a realtor that stands out ??
Here are a few idea’s;
Educate thy self….Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy beyond your initial real estate licensee requirements…Minimum, 100 hours per year IMO….
Contribute to your community and not just money but your time…Coaching, fund raising, BBQ benefits or what ever…
Be prepared to put in 70 hour weeks most of which will be fruitless….
Learn to say No…..
Fruitless 70-hour weeks may help explain why there’s so much churn in this field.
‘We just had one customer trade in his (Cadillac) Escalade for a new Civic,’ he said.”
Hmm, it wasn’t that long ago we read about a mortage broker encouraging us to take out the maximum HELOC possible and live a little by buying an Escalade. Now you just need a HELOC to pay for the gas.
Anyone familiar with downtown Long Beach around the convention center? At first glance it seems like a clean, revitalized downtime area close to the harbor. During the day it’s mostly homeless people, but then on Fri-Sat night it becomes filled with apparent gansta’s, I was actually alarmed since I was there with my children. There are new “upscale” looking condos which appear mostly vacant which I suspect during the bubble were asking 500-600K each at least. Eventually I can’t imagine anyone paying more the 100K to live there unless you are well-armed and packing heat.
LOL!
I used to be stationed there in the early 80’s ( before the Olympics ) and it was a hell hole then. When I came back again in the late 80’s it was a LOT nicer. Why not look at Belmont Shores or even Hunnington Beach though? Much nicer and if you feel like slumming it’s only a few miles down PCH.
“The problem, he said, is the inventory of homes, more than 3,500 of them. ‘The lenders will have to sell below market value,’ Bonkowski said. ‘While (the properties) are out there, it’s going to be an albatross on everybody’s neck.’”
Obviously, all of us here know that it’s impossible for houses to sell below “market value” (in fact, if you actually were to sell a house below market value, you could end up owing a 45% gift tax on the discount!)
But the fact that this guy, Bonkowski, is the county appraiser is very disturbing. Does this mean he’ll appraise houses for tax purposes for more than they can actually sell for? If this is true, then any of the recent property tax reduction ballot measures in FL are meaningless. The county assessors will simply value the houses at a level that lets them collect as much $$$ as they want…
Nevermind! I misread it. Bonkowski is a Realtor(TM) not the county appraiser. He’s still an idiot.