Buyers ‘Take Advantage’ Of The Inventory Situation
Some reports on high end housing markets stalling out. “The million-dollar home used to be a rarity in Maine. Now you can find hundreds of them on the market. There are now 416 houses for sale in the state with an asking price of $1 million or more. In the past year, 196 houses have sold for more than $1 million.”
“Part of push comes from the baby-boom generation that is looking for investment opportunities and for second homes that have the potential to become year-round homes. ‘Certainly the limited discussions I’ve had suggest it’s the out-of-staters pushing this market,’ Valerie Lamont said.”
“(Broker) Matt Hiebert has noticed an upswing in pricey listings in the last few years. ‘It seemed three or four years ago, that a $300,000 house was a lot of money,’ he said. The million-dollar homes take longer to sell, Hiebert said. After all, not that many can afford a monthly mortgage of $5,000 or more.”
“The stratosphere of Greater Boston’s housing market isn’t immune to the realities of supply and demand. Wealthy buyers are driving harder bargains, thanks to a growing inventory of ultra-luxury condos, stately mansions and antique townhomes costing $4 million or more. The increased number of choices, combined with a certain lack of urgency to get a deal done, have led to steeper discounts than the rest of the market. Year over year, the area inventory for homes over $4 million is up by 70 percent.”
“The signs of growing inventory are unmistakable: There were 124 listings above $4 million in Greater Boston on Wednesday, compared to 73 for the same date last year. Rising interest rates are also creating a drag on the luxury market, although many wealthy buyers pay cash, brokers say it’s affecting perceptions of resale value.”
“‘What does affect the middle and lower ends eventually affects the upper range,’ (agent) Charles Orr said. ‘Sometimes there’s a delay, but it does get there because it’s all a part of the same food chain. So buyers are very cautious that way, and look ahead.’”
“‘It’s all about consumer confidence,’ (broker) Terry Maitland said. ‘And every person out there in a buyer’s market is going to try to take advantage of the situation. They just won’t overpay. They’re bidding very cautiously, walking away over small increments, and drawing a line in the sand.’”
“That hard-nosed approach is borne out by the difference between asking price and sale price. In the $2 million-and-over range, properties are selling at 89 percent of the original list price, a steeper discount compared to all single-family homes (94 percent) and all condos (92 percent), Orr said.”
92% used to be the top end of what you’d want to offer on something unless it was grossly overpriced, in which case you didn’t even bother looking at it.
“‘It’s all about consumer confidence,’ (broker) Terry Maitland said. ‘And every person out there in a buyer’s market is going to try to take advantage of the situation. They just won’t overpay. They’re bidding very cautiously, walking away over small increments, and drawing a line in the sand.’”
Sounds like more of Mish’s dreaded “D” word (discounts, not deflation…)
“The increased number of choices, combined with a certain lack of urgency to get a deal done, have led to steeper discounts than the rest of the market. Year over year, the area inventory for homes over $4 million is up by 70 percent.”
Supply and Demand
Inventory and Sales
Supply and Demand
Inventory and Sales
that’s what this is all about
get them while they’re hot at Bubble Market Inventory Tracking
CNN Money offers a great (if a bit obvious) reason for why coastal buyers are so hesitant these days: PRICES ARE WAY OVERVALUED!
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/07/real_estate/overvalued_housing_market_Q4/index.htm
For SD-area looky-loos wondering when would be the right time to actually buy a home to live in (rather than as an investment), the numbers given in the table accompanying the above article are as follows:
Actual Price Equilibrium Difference Rating
San Diego CA $483.0 $290.0 67% Overpriced
So, for instance, if you are interested in the houses in your neighborhood for which the comp price is $600K, you should plan to wait until the price drops to below 600 X (3/5) = $360K before even thinking about buying (unless you have $240K sitting around in a bank account that you don’t mind losing over the next few years in order to own currently.).
The 71% over-valued figure for Modesto, CA doesn’t surprise me. No solid jobs, no University, lots of obesity, hordes of illegal aliens, traffic, etc., make this central valley city a sure loser. Too bad as it once was a pleasant rural area before the Silicon Valley turned it into a bedroom community.
A million dollar home is only a million dollar home if it sells for a million.
Until then it’s just an overpriced “wannabe”.
like when I “took advantage” of LU at $ 20
=roflow
Another blurb
Scant Home Equity Draws
By Tony Crescenzi
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/10/2006 11:21 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Tony Crescenzi
Home equity loans stood at $434.1 billion in the latest week, the Federal Reserve reported late Friday, down $0.1 billion from the previous week. The current level remains below the peak of $438.9 billion last September.
Home equity lending has moved sideways since last summer after having increased about $100 billion the previous year. The sideways movement removes a key stimulus for the economy — the so-called housing ATM.
The recent new home sales report is clear evidence of the slowing that is now occurring in the housing market.
The slowing, combined with reduced mortgage equity withdrawals will almost certainly slow the economy at some point and justify an end to the Fed’s rate hikes.
That said, there will be offsets and the economy is still operating at a high level of resource utilization.
Which is more important? Probably the resource utilization issue, but housing will impart enough of a drag that a funds rate that probes much above 5% is not likely to be needed.
Which do you think is more important? The housing slowdown, or the general strength we see in most of the economic news?
wow, I would think MEW would be off by 40% or more by now
will biz spending take over for MEW
I dought it
I have a technical read on it which I’m trying to paste showing 6% to be very likely. I’ll paste it when I can find a way to do it. It’s on a proprietary site.
I’m shocked it’s moving sideways. I would have thought it would be all tapped out by now. Article says that no growth in MEW causes the housing ATM to stop, but in reality it just stops the housing ATM from growing! I guess there are a lot of home”owners” out there who still can tap that house for $. MEW will have to slide down at some point soon, however.
and again, that would be similar to the EU situation of the last years …
We REALLY need a clampdown on easy money to stop this bubble for good; just higher shortterm rates and itsy bitsy higher longterm rates will not break the biggest bubble in history.
Presumably that’s a cumulative total of all outstanding debt—it only goes down if people are actually paying off their debt. So if new MEW’s are balanced by other people paying down their debt, that’s a wash for overall affect on spending on consumer goods.
Keep in mind also that nonmortgage consumer debt is $2.5T and still growing, though at a slower pace than a few years ago.
OT, but why has FNM stock been so sticky at $54/share for all of 2006 thus far? Is there something magical about a $54/share valuation that we should all know about?
http://tinyurl.com/g6oyd
I shorted some RE stuff , the fun is done
BECN and CFC, FNM make no sense
Yeah, it’s called the world is short that. I rarely short it, mostly play it long.
I get the role of short squeezes in driving FNM stock up over short time horizons. What I don’t get is the reversion since Jan 1, 2006 back to $54 again and again…
I have been short this stock for a long time and feel the same way. Sadly, it’s a conspiracy plane and simple. My broker who has been in the business for over 35 years sez it’s too big to fail. The NYSE would kick anyone else off the Exchange that did not do their annual financials, instead FNM is “under study”. The big funds that own it just don’t sell it off as they should. Amazing, they can get away with it. The word is out to leave it alone & for all I know they may suppert it at $54+/-.
Having said all of the above, at some point is will fail & crash. There are just tooooooo many problems. And when it does the failure will be worse because it has been held up artificially
FNM is stuck because they haven’t produced an honest financial report for 2 1/2 years so the last real data point the markets are working off is early 2004 when FMN -may- have been worth that much. We know now that it wasn’t and I’m beginning to suspect that the long delayed reporting has got to be so bad that they can’t release it all at once. One way to spread the pain is to squeeze the shorts then release the news.
But a lack of news is associated with more uncertainty, which under the laws of finance, implies a higher risk premium / lower valuation. Besides that, why would anyone guess the failure to release financials was due to a spate of good news that the company’s accountants are reluctant to break to the markets?
I think that the analyst has it upside down. Because the Upper segment of housing is less dependant upon financing, it is more stable, except when there is a housing bubble. The reason that it is more unstable in a housing bubble, is that people have stretched finances to get into those stratospheric prices, and have taken mostly suicide loans to afford them, consequently, mediocre housing has been vastly overvalued.
People with lots of money are still going to live in Beacon hill, or The Boston Common, but are unlikely to look at newly “gentrified” areas of southie, Roxbury, Dorchester, and other dumps for 1 million plus homes. Same with condos.
This puts pressure on a downward spiral again. If those selling their overpriced homes in newly gentrified neighborhoods, are unable to sell at those prices, then they can not move to upscale neighborhoods, where the old money lives. Old money realizes this, and just waits for those newly gentrified areas to hang themselves with an ARM on two properties, and then just comes in for the swoop on the more appetizing properties once the bank sells for 60% of the purchase price. Game over!
the problem is that brokers, journalists and the like are measuring the “high end” in the wrong way. when there are 416 $1M+ homes for sale in Maine, $1M isn’t really the high end anymore. Even more so in a place like Boston, where $1M barely gets you something adequate. The truth of the matter is that most of these so-called high end homes are really middle class homes with wildly inflated price tags. Lumping them together with the glorious estates in Bar Harbor or Beacon Hill townhouses doesn’t make any sense.
yes, that is one of the statistical problems with this bubble.
In my country until about 10 years ago, homes over 1 million guilders (450K euro - that was before the euro era) were not even counted in the statistics because they were ‘evidently not for personal use’ or something like that. You would only find those homes in small numbers in the most wealthy areas areas of the country.
In my not–so-big regional city, at least half the homes in the city center are now valued above that 1 M guilders level. Somewhere in the late nineties even the realtors started including sales of those 1M+ homes in the statistics - although many of them are still excluded because they are often purchased through companies (for tax reasons etc.) instead of on a personal title.
Expensive homes are now probably those above 1.5-2 M euro.
Ah, the voice of reason, Pinch. Do you mind if I call you “Pinch?”
You are right on the money with that observation. I know Boston well from school days and am amazed at goings-on there the past few years. “Million dollar homes,” in Jamaica Plain? Southie? You have got to be kidding. Like my dad says of New York, “Park Avenue was always Park Avenue, but you could find a place to live.” Beacon Hill is the same thing - to compare it to Southie is scandalous in its audacity.
Here in DC, we’re seeing the same thing. People are paying near-Georgetown prices for rowhouses in far-away neighborhoods with no retail amenities, save the odd, bullet-proof liquor store, and no shortage of gang-bangers loitering on the sidewalks, chugging down the malt liquor. Go figure.
No problem. Add to that that MA as a state is loosing population, with 2 years in a row of outmigration, whose numbers are greatly reduced by inmigration by TPS inmigrants and some illegals, and you get the idea that we are not in great shape. I will however stay here for the forseeable future, as I would rather go down first, and start rebuilding first than last…
I say: Free MA healthcare for everyone!
And every person out there in a buyer’s market is going to try to take advantage of the situation.
funny that now that we apparently have 10% discounts in some parts of the market, people are already busy catching falling knives. It will be a long, long journey to the bottom (maybe including an echo boom …).
It’s hard to overcome the intermittent reinforcement you know. Once they’ve had a taste of easy money, they can’t believe it’s gone. Kind of like the rat hitting the food pellet 50 times after getting a piece of food once.
a little of topic, but maybe there are some readers from NZ or Oz who care to comment:
I have the impression that much of the speculation in New Zealand real estate (especially with the more expensive properties around Auckland, Queenstown and other hotspots) is by foreigners from Europe, Asia and maybe some from the US.
Talking about bargain hunting: shouldn’t the average home price (in NZ$) explode to the upside now that we have a sudden 20% discount on NZ homes because of the Kiwi bungeejump?
Or would it be the other way round, that foreign investors suddenly realize that their NZ real estate investment dropped 20% in value within 3 months - maybe they all want out at the same time now?
I’d be interested in this as well. Talk about a fantasy destination.
People in my neighborhood in SF started buying houses in NZ in the last few years.
In fact, the SF Chronicle’s Carol Lloyd (”Surreal Estate” weekly column - and it has been surreal around here for a long time) devoted a column to it somewhat recently (last 18 months?). Apparently, equity nomads were going international in a big way, favoring the politics and natural beauty of the place.
I can imagine (actually have heard, in one instance) locals down there are displeased about some aspects of this development.
People in my neighborhood in SF started buying houses in NZ in the last few years.
In fact, the SF Chronicle’s Carol Lloyd (”Surreal Estate” weekly column - and it has been surreal around here for a long time) devoted a column to it somewhat recently (last 18 months?). Apparently, equity nomads were going international in a big way, favoring the politics and natural beauty of the place.
I can imagine (actually have heard, in one instance) locals down there are displeased about some aspects of this development.
Weird - double post.
The only million dollar houses that I’ve walked into out here in CA should be selling for $200K. Small yards, cracker box look, two story, non-custom, etc. I’ve only purchased two houses in my life time to date but both were custom homes……that means yours is the only house in the neighborhood with that floor plan, exterior, etc. For 1,000,000 I really expect something exotic, trimmed in rare hardwoods, etc….
NHZ, my BIL had a boss that moved from Bakersfield to Santa Cruz before property went crazy. He sold the SC house for $800K (paid $100-$200K) and then moved to NZ where he lives now. I don’t know what he paid but as I recalled it was around 2003-2004.
I think the mania started in most of NZ around 2003 (and around 2001 in Auckland).
When I was there in 2004 it seemed to be the subject of every conversation, everyone had an uncle, friend or colleague who had become ‘financially independent’ by selling some 50-year old cottage, piece of land etc.
Even now that the bubble seems to be topping, with $800K you can still buy a VERY nice home in most of New Zealand ($ 800K is probably 30-40x average income there). Only in a few hotspots the really nice homes are significantly above that level.
“Those numbers don’t surprise Valerie Lamont, director of the Institute for Real Estate Research and Business at the University of Southern Maine. Part of push comes from the baby-boom generation that is looking for investment opportunities and for second homes that have the potential to become year-round homes.
“Certainly the limited discussions I’ve had suggest it’s the out-of-staters pushing this market,” Lamont said”.
Maine is one of those states with a netral migration pattern. It’s not high outbound or high inbound. But there’s a lot happening inside the numbers. First of all it’s the oldest state in the nation which leads to a below average birth rate. Secondly, there’s no Hispanic in-migration as is happening in many areas where there were few Hispanics such as the Carolinas and Georgia. Thirdly, there are very few high paying jobs unless you bring your own and as a result every year, more and more natives leave for greener economic pastures.
Then why is is a neutral state in terms of migration.
The answer I believe is people with money from “away” have been flooding in for the past few years and the trend is intensifying. Prices have gotten ridiculosly high in a few short years but the out of staters don’t stop coming in. Valuations rise, taxes go up and more natives leave.
You can’t touch a lakefront house on Sebago Lake for less than a quarter million dollars now, and at 30-40 minutes outside Portland, it’s hardly commutable.
Perhaps in 10 years Maine will be renamed New New Jersey.
30-40 minutes? “Hardly commutable?” Sweet Jesus that is a cakewalk. I’ve got co-workers that do 90 minutes, each way, every GD day of the week!
But I get the point. I’m sure things are out of control, from a Maine perspective. I was in Nova Scotia last fall - property is still dirt cheap by our standards, but the locals are appalled at the price run-up these past few years. This will all fade away along with easy money. Don’t despair, you’ll have all the black flies to yourselves before long.
W2P
Here’s your typical ME “native” middle class exodus story.
Lived in ME for 30 years.
3 years ago, my -ex loses her 20+ yr. $50k job w/ bennies. She burns thru a $30k severance in 1.5 years ’cause she can’t find a replacement. My appraisal job income crashes to $25k from $85k in ‘94 when Greedypants put on the brakes. Everything comes unglued. Still hundreds pour into the profession via state licensing probgrams established in ‘92 because there is nothing else for people to do.
I encounter enormous problems getting restarted. The legions of newbies kills income.
So our previous former $135k “family income” (allot of f*ckin’ money in ME) is gone. Divorce follows-I’m forced to dump my house before the value run-up starts in ‘01. -Ex moves to CT for work. My biz is so up and down, I can’t run it without a steady second spousal income, so I fold and move to MA.
So now ya a former family unit doing 6-figures with 3 college degrees gone from the ME economic landscape. My son is now a Sr. @ Rensellaer Polytech, and my daughter is will be a Fr. @ Univ. of Hartford. They will never return to ME.
At the moment I have absolutely no f*ckin’ idea who’s payin’ the bills to keep the state afloat. Baldacci thinks he’s gonna do with retirees and a tourist based economy.
Good fookin’ luck…
I went on a day-trip along the Maine coast yesterday. Absolutely beautiful, but lots of for sale signs…
There are some small villages way “downeast” such as Jonesport where I’ve seen For Sale signs on what seemed like every third house. I came to the conclusion all the natives were “fishing” for suckers from out of state. If they can hook one and sell their place for say $200,000, they just move to a similar house which they probably buy for half that.
BTW, “Downeast” means far UP the coast, i.e., in a northeast direction. You can still buy deep water ocean frontage land there relatively inexpensively. We had considered it, but are now waiting for prices to crash on ski condos at Sunday River instead.
“Perhaps in 10 years Maine will be renamed New New Jersey.”
Sorry - didn’t you know that Vermont has already claimed that?
Everything described above is happening in Vermont. Educated natives leave, retirees move in. 2nd oldest average population in US, after Maine. 2nd most second homes, again after Maine.
Equity nomads are changing the character and the quality of life for longtime residents. Sometimes the changes can be good, often times they are not.
And I forgot to add that there already exists the bumper sticker:
“Don’t New Jersey Vermont”
Isn’t Vermont’s water table too high for Mafia burials? I guess they could sleep with the Perches in Lake Champlain.
“The million-dollar home used to be a rarity in Maine. Now you can find hundreds of them on the market.
Yeah, once all these out-of-state flatlanders go thru a couple nasty black-fly seasons, they are all ready to bail…LMAO.
HD;….I could tell by your musings well educated in the real estate field and had personal experience in all the past cycles…
I’ll tell ya SC…I “was” in the appraisal field for 21 years. I’m as honest as the day is long. Couldn’t buy me for a mil, because
once you get a rep as a “number hitter”, ya get the work but you’re compromised. Meanwhile everybody smirks, winks an eye, and calls you a sleaze behind your back.
The game is rigged. And when I repeatedly use the word racketeering relative to what transpires in the mortgage O biz it’s ’cause know what I’m talkin’ about.
Whatever I saw go on in previous cycles can’t hold a candle to what’s transpired in the last 4 years.
This bust has the capacity to take out the world economy.
“Whatever I saw go on in previous cycles can’t hold a candle to what’s transpired in the last 4 years. This bust has the capacity to take out the world economy.”
I have to agree with you. The economy of the seventies changed my outlook on life completely, and I have a terrible feeling that something of that magnitude or worse is headed our way.
In addition to in-migration coming from other states, there’s an increasing number of foeigners buying in Maine. fDI Magazine recently ranked Maine as having the highest quality of life in the states. Produced by the Financial Times group, fDi is the journal of globalisation and specializes in providing information on foreign direct investment. Here’s what they wrote on Maine. Note that Colorado came in second.
State: Maine
The coastal areas of southern Maine are often regarded as the most attractive housing areas with a beautiful, healthy environment, low crime and excellent schools. In 2004, statewide homes sales increased by 9.05% with an average sales price of $175,000.
The state offers exceptional healthcare, boasting 39 acute care and specialty hospitals. Maine Medical Center (MMC) in Portland serves as the premier tertiary care centre in northern New England. The centre has 606 licensed beds and provides comprehensive inpatient services in all medical specialties. It is also recognised for the Diabetes Center, the AIDS Consultation Service, and the Center for Lipids and Cardiovascular Health.
Maine leads the country in high school graduation rates, at 95.4%, and ranks in the top 10% of states for quality of education. All seventh and eighth graders are issued with a laptop computer, the only programme of its kind in the world. Maine was the first state to provide 100% of schools and libraries with internet access.
The state is also one of the greatest natural playgrounds in the world with more than 5000 miles of spectacular coastline, majestic mountain ranges and crystal-clear lakes and rivers. It is home to 18 ski resorts, 32 state parks and Acadia National Park.
There are more historical forts than in any other US state. Many historic homes are preserved as museums, among them those of poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow and philanthropist Lucy Farnsworth.
With two symphony orchestras, opera companies and a plethora of theatre companies, Maine offers an exquisite menu of performing arts and cultural entertainment. The states speciality of lobster and fresh seafood is abundant in its many fine dining establishments and casual restaurants.
Shopping outlets in Kittery and Freeport combined with the boutiques and speciality stores of Bangor and Portlands Old Port, also home to lively nightlife and traditional pubs, have created a growing interest in Maine as an international shopping destination.
Colorado came in second in the category, followed by Virginia and Vermont in third place.
http://www.fdimagazine.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/1248/Best_quality_of_life
It’s also one of the coldest damn places in the U.S. I have a place in Nova Scotia and I know whereof I speak. No thanks.
We have relatives in Margaretville, Nova Scotia and want to visit one day. We’ve never been there. We’ve heard the ocean beaches in parts of Nova Scotia (Northumberland Strait?) is as warm as the water in the Carolinas.
A lot of the out of staters coming in are snowbirds. They take their $2 million home equity from NY or California, buy a place for $500,000 here and then use the interest to take long winter vacations. Even some people of modest means have mobil homes in Florida.
Yeah, they have homes but are resident in states with lower taxes (like… NEW YORK?!?!).. Good place to visit, but I definitely wouldn’t wanna pay taxes there..
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/topic/32.html read it and weep…
Maine is actually # 19 in taxes per person.
http://www.stateline.org/live/ViewPage.action?siteNodeId=136&languageId=1&contentId=101919
STATE
TAXES PER CAPITA
(FY 2005)
1 Vermont $3,600.16
2 Hawaii $3,477.93
3 Wyoming $3,417.77
4 Connecticut $3,300.49
5 Delaware $3,228.79
6 Minnesota $3,093.93
7 Massachusetts $2,815.23
8 Alaska $2,786.90
9 California $2,724.31
10 New Jersey $2,630.31
11 New York $2,606.62
12 Rhode Island $2,443.07
13 Wisconsin $2,429.96
14 Maryland $2,410.23
15 Michigan $2,404.95
16 West Virginia $2,367.17
17 Washington $2,359.99
18 Arkansas $2,357.84
19 Maine $2,323.12
20 New Mexico $2,319.23
21 North Dakota $2,202.97
22 Pennsylvania $2,193.32
23 Kentucky $2,178.50
24 Nebraska $2,158.36
25 North Carolina $2,146.68
26 Virginia $2,103.72
27 Ohio $2,094.08
28 Nevada $2,074.72
29 Illinois $2,069.40
30 Idaho $2,053.51
31 Indiana $2,049.42
32 Kansas $2,039.60
33 Iowa $1,938.85
34 Oklahoma $1,933.21
35 Montana $1,910.14
36 Louisiana $1,909.52
37 Florida $1,905.28
38 Utah $1,897.32
39 Mississippi $1,859.69
40 Arizona $1,853.58
41 Oregon $1,791.45
42 Georgia $1,727.73
43 South Carolina $1,719.95
44 Alabama $1,711.27
45 Tennessee $1,678.23
46 Missouri $1,645.49
47 Colorado $1,639.54
48 New Hampshire $1,543.62
49 Texas $1,434.16
50 South Dakota $1,430.46
Yeah, this is proof.
That it’s hard to have the socialist paradise that Bernie Sanders, Madeleine Kunin, Pat Leahy or Howard Dean dream about without taxing the crap out of people.
A State of Vermont that loses a lot of its best young people to other states.
That’s cuz the per-capita salaries are lower.. Maine’s state income tax rate is listed as $4719 per-capita in state and local taxes, ranking it #1 in the entire nation in that category.
Business tax climate ranks 45th out of 50th, so no incentive to create jobs there… At least it’s not a donor state like the rest of coastal America…
Hasn’t every place in the country had a story at one time or another about how it’s one of the best places to live in the country?
Anything south of Biddeford Pool is not Maine
-More like Cape Cod North with the summer traffic gridlock.
This site says Maine is the least tax friendly state.
http://tinyurl.com/cysvc
“Topping the list of least tax-friendly places is Maine. Its No. 1 ranking results from the great disparity between the fact that it is one of the lowest income states in the country yet has one of the highest rankings in terms of tax collection, said Curtis Dubay, an economist with the Tax Foundation.
Property taxes account for about 40 percent of the overall tax revenue Maine collects, and it has relatively high income tax rates – a top rate of 8.5 percent for all income above $16,950.”
Single Family home inventory in Portland, Maine (04101-3) as well as the suburbs of Falmouth, Cumberland and North Yarmouth from Realtor.com as of 4/4/06:
9/6/05 352
9/19/05 394
9/29/05 400
11/3/05 425
12/5/05 406
1/3/06 407
2/2/06 395
2/11/06 352
2/18/06 348
2/24/06 345
3/4/06 343
3/12/06 343
3/18/06 341
4/4/06 351
Called on a vacant 1-story (w/ basement) rectangular brick 1960’s style house in Fairfax today. The realtor described it as a four-bedroom, three on the “top” floor, one on the “lower level.” I asked “You mean the basement?” She reluctantly said “Yes.” Approx 2,000 square feet - including the basement. Ah, remember the good old days when below-grade wasn’t considered in calculations of square footage? 1,000 square feet above grade. She also confirmed that the house was built in 1960 and that it was “deferred maintenance.” Anyway, list price? $569,000.00. Wow. Remember the good old days when a half-million would get you a really nice house with some land?
The Forest Drive one? I walk past that one when I walk to work. Cute little place, reminds me of the one I sold last year in Madison WI — for $165K.
$569K is outrageous.
Actually it’s on the 4000 block of Roberts Road, near Mason. New sign, didn’t ask how long it had been listed. I think it’s ridiculous expectations like these which will be dashed. The widespread nature of the ridiculous expectations leads to the huge inventory and will lead to a very large adjustment when reality creeps up and mugs them. A very large adjustment indeed.
Is this it?
MLS: FC5560259
4128 ROBERTS RD, Fairfax, VA 22032
Cripes, I wouldn’t pay $569 for that dump. According to Fairfax City (not Fairfax Country — different web site) the 2006 assessment was $468,100, which is still way too much. The current owner lives in London and bought it in 1992 for $189,000 (top of last bubble).
Along with Nantucket in Massachussetts, the Maine coast is showing signs of becoming the anti-Hamptons. For one, it’s a lot quicker to jet here than to drive out to eastern Long Island. Long a summer playground of old established money such as the Rockefellers and the Bushes, in recent years many Hollywood types have bought houses such as John Travolta, Martha Stewart and Tom Selleck. Glen Close just married the founder of a leading Maine biotech firm and they’ve moved into his coastal mansion. She was recently sighted with Bette Midler in Portland. Springsteen and a lot of musicians come to Gateway Studios in Portland for mastering work and a company named VisionMill, made up of Hollywood transplants is building a movie making facilty in Camden.
If it does become the anti-Hamptons, hopefully the most ostentatious will stay behind in NY!
Plum Creek, the largest REIT and largest landowner in the U.S. is about to unveil a plan to build 975 homes and two huge resorts in the pristine Moosehead Lake region. 480 of these homes will be right on the lake. Unless thye state’s Land Use Regulation Commission is very smart about this, these will be huge McMansions and the Maine Woods will become McWoods.
I hope they all come during Black Fly season (June) and never return. I also hope they all lose their shirts.
Waiting2Pounce-You ever been to where they want to build this development? I have…It’s rugged fookin’ country.
The liberals from Portland only look from the pages of DownEast Magazine.
The remoteness will scare the bejesus out of people. Some will buy simply for braggin’ rights…But they will tire of the isolation and the black flies and that will be that.
Personally, I’m for the development. The Moosehead region needs whatever damn economic benefit it can get.
hd74man
“Waiting2Pounce-You ever been to where they want to build this development? I have…It’s rugged fookin’ country”.
I’ve driven from Ripogenus Dam to Greenville and also from Jackman to Brassua and Moosehead. I agree with you that it’s in the middle of nowhere and not for most.
What kind of prices do you figure lots would go for? I’d be curious as to your opinion.
My guess is they’ll be expensive and some of these people from New Jersey will erect mammoth homes and vist one week a year. That way they’ll only be frightened a few days a year.
Here’s a scary article about Plum Creek that has me very wary of this outfit:
http://www.northernskynews.com/backissue%20pages/BuyItorElse.html
I once made the mistake of driving across Northern Maine one rainy autumn night. I’ve never been anywhere so desolate in my entire life. I didn’t see a single sign of civilization for a good two hours. Pretty creepy. You’d have to be a hermit to want to live there.
Here’s a little perspective for you:
$1million plus homes listed for sale in Maine: 419
$1million plus homes listed for sale in Monmouth County NJ: 738
(The number comes from the county’s mls list which has three regions
http://www.realtor.com/monmouth/nbregion1.asp?st=nj&poe=realtor)
Monmouth has a lot of pricey areas, but 300 more million dollar homes than the state of Maine? The county has a population of about 600,000 or so.
There’s a lack of real jobs in Maine, whereas NJ and the Tri-state area has got to have more good jobs than almost anywhere else. The high Maine prices have been supported by out of state money and I’m sure some of it is from Monmouth County.
The priced per square foot in Monmouth is probably pretty high, at least relative to low budget places like northern New England.
Not to mention that Maine property taxes are “among the nation’s highest”:
“As in most states, the amount collected by the state government of Maine was fairly small. In fiscal year 2002, Maine collected $48,136,000, which amounted to $37 per capita and ranked 16th highest in the nation. At the local level, Maine’s property tax collections are substantial. They totaled $1,864,022,000 in FY 2002. That amounted to $1,437 per capita and ranked 3rd highest nationally. Expressed as a percentage of income, Maine localities collect $49 per $1,000 of income, and by this measure, Maine’s local property taxes are the highest in the nation. (Non-resident property tax payments are included in Census data.)”
If you want less of something, tax it. I just wish we could tax poverty….
Correction,
Monmouth County has 776 $1 million plus listings. I left out the condo/townhouses
My family is from Maine. I used to own a house there. Over the years, I’ve watched people flock in- because it IS so beautiful- and then turn tail and run after a couple of those black fly seasons, rainy seasons, frozen,gray winter seasons, you name it, Maine’s got them all. Probably the worst weather on the continental US, along with the most beautiful scenery.
Barring a pronounced and very quick rise in temperature up there, I think Mainers are safe in the long run. At least I hope so. It’s hard to believe that most Americans will be happy to live in a place where “summer” covers about 3 weeks of every year.
When they go, there’ll be some massive clean up required of the newly built homes so all can go back to woods again. Jobs for all Mainers!
Seattle Price Drop -
I thought summer in Maine was just the 4th of July most years.
Actually, you got me wondering about this - whether our weather was really the worst in the continental U.S. So I went to the following National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climatology site: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/avgsun.html
Having lived in the NY suburbs, I can say that Portland’s winters are only slightly colder, probably because we’re on the ocean. They’re certainly snowier, but that makes winter beautiful and fun if you’re a four season type of person.
So I took a look at sunshine data, because even in the winter (particylarly on the snow), a sunny day is a nicer day than an overcast day. Anyway, they have 173 cities worth of sunshine data that goes back many years.
Here is a sample of some of the cities average % sun:
Apr-Sep Oct-Mar DATA THROUGH 2002
94 87 YUMA, AZ
74 72 LOS ANGELES C.O., CA
72 68 MIAMI, FL
70 62 SAN FRANCISCO C.O., CA
65 53 HOUSTON, TX
62 54 NEW YORK C.PARK, NY
59 55 PORTLAND, ME
62 49 NASHVILLE, TN
60 53 PHILADELPHIA, PA
61 51 WASHINGTON NAT’L AP, D.C.
60 47 CHICAGO,IL
56 49 ALLENTOWN, PA
58 41 COLUMBUS, OH
57 42 BURLINGTON, VT
61 37 CLEVELAND, OH
60 37 BUFFALO, NY
56 36 SYRACUSE, NY
53 32 SEATTLE C.O., WA
Does anyone know any potential buyer who hasn’t gotten the message yet: “If you wait, you will save a lot of money.”
You know all those people you really hate, but have to be nice to at work?
The ones who like to get other people in trouble, and who are constantly trying to suck up to the boss?
Those are the people who just bought.
I swear to God.
I have three of them in my work circle.
All the same personality makeup.
The only thing these morons took advantage of was funding some boomers retirement.
10% off?
I’m holding out for 50%.
And it’s gonna come a heck of a lot faster than most people think.
I don’t need a house so I can be cool, or fit in.
I need a house so I can have a baby with my wife.
Therefore, I am patient.
The folks buying now, or who just bought- in my opinion- are the hasty, impatient a-holes you wanna impale atop high poles at the office.
Good for them.
I’ll buy their house for a dollar.
It is the Patient, not the Impatient, who win this game.
Suckers…