Bits Bucket For June 5, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Time Over Due For A World Currency…
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JF06Dj04.html
Would there be one world central bank chairman to regulate the money supply, and one world government to back her up? This sounds to me like academics sending a message to earth from the fantasy land they inhabit.
Just put some Germans in charge of it.
not just ’some’ Germans I hope … there are many German economists and bankers that have the same inflation virus that the FED, BOE and BOJ are suffering from
Oh yeah, that’s JUST what we need, a global central bank. That’ll fix everything.
Don’t we already have one? I think its the US Feds imho
forgot to add, and they are not doing so well!
lol
“I think its the US Feds imho”
They seem to agree.
They could call it Global Original Liquidity Deposits, but it would need a snappy, short name for easy use.
How about the Singularly Held Institutional Transactions system? That is my entry in the contest.
Nice acronym
Preceded by the Bureaucratic Union of Lending Leaders.
how ’bout :
Foreign United Currency KonfEDeration
Awesome acronym creations!
Legislators Of Safe Economic Responsibility
Provisional Repository of Investor and Consumer Knowledge Sources
you win.
in short SHITS
in short $HIT$
the acronym for Global Original Liquidity Deposits ==> GOLD
The way to fix an idea that fails at a national level is obviously to try it at a global level, after all. Large scale central planning never works. Even if the people running it weren’t crooks and had your best interests at heart, the systems being manipulated are too complicated to behave predictably.
The move from a national central banking system to a global one would appear to parallel an earlier move (in the U.S.) from a decentralized system of regional banks to one central bank, circa 1913. How’s that working out so far?
Well, the dollar has lost only about 97 percent of its original value (last I checked), so the Fed has been doing pretty well as central banks go. A lot of them that don’t seem to last more than a decade or two. That doesn’t change my opinion, however: I think we’d be better off without central banking of any sort.
I prefer redundancy over efficiency. The Fed may have smoothed things out, but when it eventually fails it will be a much more devastating mess than the smaller scale bank runs it was supposed to prevent.
Decentralization is a good way to avoid running into the need for too-big-to-fail bailouts!
I vehemently agree.
it is working perfectly, the financial elite is doing better than ever before and most ordinary citizens do not seem to care as long as they are allowed to go deeper into debt. That’s why they want to upgrade to a FED-style global banking system (on steroids). Maybe they can promise free $ 1 million loans (at least for the first 10 years or so) for every world citizen, to kickstart the brave new world banking cartel.
–
You can’t have a global currency and central bank without global free movement of labor. How many wealthy nations would want that?
A gold-backed currency would be a non-political global currency if Crooks were not in-charge in America and Europe. The desire to manipulate the economy is too great for any rational solution to take root.
Jas
You can’t have a global currency and central bank without global free movement of labor. How many wealthy nations would want that?
The people who are the native inhabitants of the wealthy countries are sick of the “invaders”.
We have Mexican, Guatamalans, and Haitians, along with many others. Germany, England, France, Italy, etc, have hourdes of Muslims from Turkey, Pakistan, various African Nations and the Middle East.
They don’t want it, either.
But the Governments of all these countries have taken the power away from the people and passed laws in support of all the migrants, against the citizens of these nations. In Germany, it is “illegal” to speak out against the onslaught. I believe the same is true in Canada.
Our Government refuses to enforce immigration laws and instead, provides free “services” to the so-called
“undocumented workers” and free school for their children.
So what do you mean? It’s been happening for some time now, and the pace has been accelerating.
We have no control to stop it, unless we take to the streets like the Muslims did in Paris, “demanding” their “rights”. We are doomed unless the brakes get applied immediately.
One World central government and banking system has always been the goal of the PTB. The larger the scale of government, the easier it is to take away your freedoms (and your money), because the government is so far detached from the people on the street.
It is also easier (in principle if not in practice) for those at the very top to control everyone else when government is more centralized. I believe that goes for financial governance as well.
The PTB are aiming for a de facto rather than de jure world government.
It’s called Richistan.
Interesting…..
I was just reading this morning on (gasp) another blog (but only while I’m waiting) about the Asian Monetary Fund which represents 13 countries and the early stages of a Latin American Monetary Fund speerheaded by loans from Venezuela.
That discussion would lead one to believe that many of the world’s major economies are enjoying a newfound regional freedom rather than looking for a new world-unifying savior.
Ben, can I source that info?
Yeah, I second Jas’ call above: How about 100% reserve backed commodity currencies for all, mostly gold?
No wiggle room for stealing the wealth of the world’s masses.
The only goal of a world currency would be to make sure the peons have no way to store wealth or get a decent paying job. Imagine a never-ending hyperinflation asset Bubble, and that is what you’d get. The stupidity of the Fed on a world-wide scale.
The entire foundation of our Central Bank is a flawed concept where it is essentially a small group of private bankers creating fiat currency and loaning it at interest. I do think we will end up with a world currency in my lifetime though, the banks seem to do a good job of destabilizing the markets just enough while preserving confidence that they are the leaders fixing the problem. They will promote it as a solution to financial crisis, efficiency, etc… the biggest effect would be their ability to consolidate their hold onto emerging or undeveloped markets.
I live in the Bethesda, Potomac, Rockville area of Montgomery County, MD. I was looking on the MLS system last night and saw that houses are selling like hot-cakes!@#$ - I’ve been watching for last 2-3 years and this spring has been busier then the last 3. These are considered desirable areas, but haven’t seen this type of activity in a few years. I find it very disappointing and it doesn’t feel like a dead cat bounce. Is anybody seeing the same thing in Maryland? I looked at some other zip codes, but not the action like the cities I mentioned. This sucks!
Back again with the hotcakes, eh troll? Move along.
they are flying off the shelves
i may go for my realturd license to get in why the getting is good
Hot cakes??? (JWhite’s head pops up) Hotcakes? Where?
got syrup?
lolololololololol.
( as if we are so easily fooled )
Speaking of hotcakes, I’m hungry.
Roidy
Yeah, totally.
And I want my hotcakes on the spicy side. The hot buns need to be spicy too.
I hear the hotcakes taste sweet at first, but they give you explosive diareah, and make your cornhole burn on the way out.
…and, they keep getting cheaper.
The technical term is “bombastic diarrhea” & “projectile vomiting”
Seriously give it up…. Or better yet, jump on that RE rocket ship to the moon in your area, it must really be different there in desirable land !
“Fly me to the moon - I want to dance among the stars -”
Kevin — What kind of investment properties do you own and why are you trolling for buyers here? There has to be better places to troll for greater fools; I suggest eBay and Craig’s list.
Ignore him. He’s just a troll-holio.
Tell you what: how about you buy a half dozen and let us know in a year how things look.
walt,
That is exactly what I was thinking. OK, I was thinking an even dozen, but pretty much the same thing.
The over building in this area is amazing. And I was considering renting an apartment in a small house near the metro in Rockville last November. The realtor told me I better rush to snap it up because a couple that was really interested had just looked at it. I didn’t want to move until the end of January, so I didn’t pursue it. The apartment was still for rent in February.
I think that one was even worse than the guy in Brooklyn who only showed me apartments with huge holes in the walls, or in basements, or some other dire defect at the very top of my price range when I was graduating law school (my firm paid the fee). I evenutally rented a place with no holes and a full time doorman for half the cost of the ones he showed me.
Realtors are nasty.
Funny thing is, there are qute a few people on this blog who would like to buy in this area eventually. A realtor who was willing to offer real, honest inside information might end up with clients in 2 to 3 years. Then again, maybe this guy is just a speculator.
Realtors are scum. What a pointless profession.
I am subletting a room in my house - kid is a freshly crowned realtor working for an office in Beverly Hills. He sleeps all day long, goes in for a meeting on wed., and open house on sunday. Comes back every Sunday and says he has ‘found some buyers’ (nothing ever materializes). He really doesn’t get it. I tell him every Sunday, ‘go find some suckers!’.
On a side note - I met his dad, who’s done RE here for the past 20 years, since they’ve moved from South Africa. Very cool guy - thinks the market is f’ed. He told me a bunch of stories about FB developer he knows. He thinks this is going to get a whole lot worse.
Cheaper by the dozen.
I’ve noticed lately that there is a douche bag bubble forming in the Bethesda, Potomac, Rockville area of Montgomery County, MD.
lol
I have no idea about MD but does anyone else here monitor OSG/Hardtack? There *is* some increase in sales May over April but I view it as seasonal and this “jump” is far below previous years (northern new england). Also, what is selling is the very cheapest on the market(NNE). I’m not even certain if these are actual sales or just signed contracts. I also saw a flurry of RE agent activity locally last weekend in Mid Hudson Valley NY. RE agents and their cheesy advertising balloons going up, multiple open houses, etc etc.
“Also, what is selling is the very cheapest on the market(NNE).”
The newspaper cherrypicks what listings it wishes to publish but I noticed of the listings from Syr area towns w/median for sale prices in the $300k’s, there were very few sold for over $200k in the last few weeks.
Carrie, the current sales activity appears to be only the sub 200k range. The upside is that the reported median will go down, significantly in my view. The downside is much of is still just overpriced junk.
That’s because the sub 200K range is all that most people can REALLY afford, once one looks at actual incomes and removes the toxic loans from the equation.
The median household income of Maryland is only about $65K, and it is one of the richer states in the nation. Where the heck are all these $300K, $400K, and up houses going to go? Who can afford them?
Right on Pondering. Even 200k with a 65k salary is beyond my comfort level for a mortgage note. I wouldn’t do it but I’m fortunate enough to write a check for that much.
The poorest of the sheeple will be the last to fall due to being too lazy to research or to stupid to see what is in front of their face.
The latest sales are sheeple that think that God has blessed them with the opportunity to be realestate “investors”
Oh THAT one’s been a LOOOOOONG time coming and needs to pop BADLY.
The BS in the Washington area finally drove me to Baltimore and it was a worthwhile move.
Well, they aren’t making any more douchebags, you kno…
Wait. Nevermind.
Is that anything like the scumbag Clinton referred to? The definition of that was an education for me….
Haha
Better get in on it right now…or be priced out forever.
Would’nt it be “douched out forever”…
I’m seeing an amazing surge here in the Watkins Glen NY area. “For Sale” signs planted in March are morphing into June “Price Reduced” signs at an alarming rate.
This area is the rectal thermometer for the DC and Wall Street money centers. The patient isn’t looking too healthy from this end.
Watkins Glen is the most beautiful state park I’ve ever been in. But it’s small town USA with no industry that I know of, and the closest “major” city (Binghamton?) has THE lowest housing prices in the country — it’s always at the bottom of the lists.
How is WG an indicator for Wall Street money? Hot vacation spot?
My dock sits across from where the Glen’s Stream empties into the Chemung Canal (Seneca Lake). I’m looking out my window at it. I agree it is an awsome park, 400 ft of waterfalls. The main tourist draws here are the wineries and the race track. It’s a short season.
For the past few years, the vast majority of buyers (investors) have been from NYC or DC.
I went to SUNY Binghamton and the place is pretty nasty. After IBM closed down, the place literally degraded. It also has the highest percent for insest in the whole country (which probably explains why most workers in walmart have 2 teeth tops).
There are 2 official weathers in Binghamton - Cloudy and Snowy and Cloudy and Rainy.
A lot of people who graduated from there after 4 years were “touched by dark spirits of Binghamton”
I am guessing all of the Binghamton grads become editors?
I’m in Calvert County, MD (I know we are no where near as trendy as Montgomery County) and we haven’t had a single family home (about 500 sf & th in our development) sell since Sept 07. That one went for $191/sf. We did have a foreclosure sale in April 08 for $163/sf. There is no spring selling season here. Three houses on my street were up for rent this spring for about $2200/mo and all have new tenants. We have about 12 sf on the market right now from $178-239/sf. Two of the houses that were for sale were hit by the tornado’s yesterday. One lost the side of its garage and the other has new skylights. I guess now there will be big demand for the other 10 still standing. Everyone better rush on over and put a bid in!
Considering how Bubbley Maryland is, the houses smashed by the twister will probably have their price reduced from the upper $400’s to the mid $300’s by the damage.
In this state, one could sell a pile of rubble on a swamp for the mid $200’s and people would stand in line for the “opportunity!”
“I’m seeing an amazing surge here in the Watkins Glen NY area. “For Sale” signs planted in March are morphing into June “Price Reduced” signs at an alarming rate.”
Blue Skye-
I’m wondering if you’d have a feel for whether or not the majority of those were primary or secondary homes.
Two of my good friends grew up there. When the 3 of us girls have been out together and they get talking about old times, the subject of lack of work options has come up.
The only thing selling like hotcakes in Bethesda are the hotcakes at The Pancake House on Sunday mornings. They just finished the pretentious “Lionsgate” condo complex across from the Pancake house and for a cool million you can get an overpriced condo that is guaranteed to lose value. The Adiago condo complex across from Trader Joe’s on Wisconsin has had the total of 2 sales (again million USD range prices). Another big condo project slated to go next to Woodmont plaza had been put on ice. My GF’s condo complex has had a lot of turnover due to failed flippers (foreclosures & short sales & floplords) and the wealthy have come in and rented or bought units up on the cheap and put there kids in them while they go to school in the area. Needless to say its taken on a light dormitory atmosphere that does not sit well with her. The county assessment for her condo has gone down over 40k in one year!!! But no need to worry the county has jacked up the property tax rate to insure they keep the same bubblicious revenue stream while they cut back on gov’t services. All that being said, compared to other parts of the Metro DC area, Bethesda is holding its own. The exburbs are getting hammered, (Manasty, Woodbridge, Frederick, PG county, Loudon County & NoVa in general). The district & Fairfax are mixed, Arlington, Alexandria city & the Chevy Chase/Bethesda/Rockville/Potomac area are all holdup the best, but they are all soft & flat in terms of price & sales volume. Give it another 1-2 years, in the mean time invest in The Pancake House if you want to get a piece of the action regarding hotcake sales.
I’ve probably been out to breakfast hundreds of times and never once when I ordered hotcakes, was I denied because they were sold out…
Northern PG County…Re is slow. Listing prices are down. Not enough recent RE movement to tell how much sale prices are down. Newspapers are full of FB sob stories.
This spring has NOT been the busiest in several years by any means in Montgomery County, at least not according to newspaper-published data.
And even those houses that are selling will go for heft discounts. Case in point: Friend of mine sold his house in Rockville last month. One year on market, started at $370k, finally sold for… brace yourself… $276k in the end.
And not only that, the buyer had a miserable time trying to get the financing arranged.
Healthy market? I think not. Let’s see what the latest May stats show when they are actually published. Or do you have them at hand for us?
Kevin, remember who controls the MLS…they have a vested interest in keeping the perception that sales are good. The MLS may not be showing the REOs and foreclosed homes as comparables, and it might appear that the inventory is smaller than it actually is.
Also, some houses getting huge discounts might create a ‘mini-frenzy’, just like articles posted here about underpriced condos in Florida a short while back. That is still a dead cat bounce, i.e. gimmicky and unsustainable.
Anyway, the anecdotal and non-quantitative approach isn’t a good way to argue with us housing bears, because you’ll get a lot of anger and skepticism. This site used to be trolled by housing bulls who just would repeat NAR propaganda without any proof to back up their claims.
Will there be an Obama bump if he wins? Will there be an influx of new meritocrats? If McCain wins will there be less turnover?
This is actually somewhat true in this area, but you are missing some details.
I live in Potomac and know my neighborhood very well as far as real estate goes. Houses were selling in the $900ks at one point. Now houses are entering the market in the mid $800ks, sitting on the market for awhile, and selling in the low $800ks. But, every once in awhile a house enters the market in the $700ks and it will be snatched up immediately with multiple offers (smart seller).
Of course, the houses with more recent updates and that are in better shape are selling quicker too.
It all depends on how your house compares to the other inventory. Houses that stand out are still getting bought quickly, although not for 2005 prices.
Not from what I see.
Houses are sitting… and sitting… and sitting in Maryland. Still lots of delusional idiots in this state who think that “everyone is rich because of DC” and that houses SHOULD cost 5+ times their household income. I bet we even have morons who think that they can “just refinance later” and “prices don’t matter.” The Bubble has been very slow to pop in Maryland because there are a lot of clueless people with a reasonable amount of money to drag out the decline here. It is unfortunate, but at some point houses have to return to a historical multiple of household income. That has yet to happen here.
Air Fares Up,Up, Up…
It’s about time… How long can a company run in the red? It’s not complicated, charge the necessary fare to turn a profit. Reduce the most fuel consumptive of your fleet, cut out low volume flights etc.
The idea of weighing passengers won’t go over to well with the lard butts, but they’ll get over it or not. It’s all about thrust which equals fuel, getting jets off the ground, so if your cargo is extra heavy then you have to charge more.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/travel/2008-06-04-non-stop-fares_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Perhaps I’m just feeling silly this morning, but the first thing I thought of when I read this:
“The idea of weighing passengers won’t go over to well with the lard butts, but they’ll get over it or not. It’s all about thrust which equals fuel”
was this:
“It’s not a matter of where he grips it. It’s a simple matter of weight ratios. A five-ounce bird cannot carry a one-pound coconut!”
Do coconuts migrate?!!
“Put the lime in the coconut and drink it all up.”
African or European?
I dont know
AHHHHHHHHHHH..
“Go AWAY you English KNNNNNNIgggget! I FART in your general direction!”
“Between Philadelphia and San Diego, the lowest non-stop round-trip fare is now $780, up 228% from $239 last June.”
Lots of 1-stops on Southwest available later in June and July at just over $400 (cheaper Tue/Wed/Sat travel days), up from a year ago but not by eye-popping amounts.
“It’s about time… How long can a company run in the red? It’s not complicated, charge the necessary fare to turn a profit. Reduce the most fuel consumptive of your fleet, cut out low volume flights etc.”
Charging the necessary fare to turn a profit isn’t necessarily as easy at it sounds. The market sets the price, not the costs. Airlines have been trying to raise fares for years, but often have had difficulty making them stick. Cutting capacity to help boost fares is not as easy at it sounds either once you have the infrastructure in place to provide a certain level of service. Some of the easier moves are being done now. Remove less efficient, older aircraft from service, reduce employees through attrition, reduce flights at smaller hubs. Airlines going out of business also reduce capacity. It is doubtful all of these smaller measures, even in combination, will be enough.
If you somehow could boost fares to levels needed to cover costs, demand would drop, further aggravating the excess capacity issues. Air travel is a long way from equilibrium in supply and price, much like housing.
If you somehow could boost fares to levels needed to cover costs, demand would drop, further aggravating the excess capacity issues. Air travel is a long way from equilibrium in supply and price, much like housing Perhaps air travel for the masses makes no economic sense when petro is over $110/barrel.
It is much more fuel efficient for 150 people in a 737 to fly from Philadelphia to San Diego than in 150 SUV’s.
It is much more fuel efficient for 150 people in a 737 to fly from Philadelphia to San Diego than in 150 SUV’s.
Wouldn’t be more fuel efficient for all of them to take a train?
(Just asking - I don’t know -I have some idea of how much 150 SUVs would take but I have no idea how much fuel it takes to get a 737 that distance or a train for that matter.)
But is it more efficient than 150 people riding 5 each in 30 SUVs? Or 7 each in 21 big SUVs and 4 in a small one?
The answer is likely to surprise you. (Try it with and without baggage, too.)
Additionally, I guarantee you it’s more fuel-efficient (by maybe an order of magnitude, even) to take those 150 people in two Greyhound-type buses.
A lot of the “efficiency” we’ve been ascribing to air travel the last 40 years is in travel time savings vs. productivity, NOT fuel use efficiency. Figuring by the pound, air travel (even with very fuel-efficient turbines) is far less efficient than a maximum-loaded car, bus or truck.
The only reasons fares have stayed this low is Federal subsidies (i.e. your tax dollars at work; you’ve been paying everyone else’s airfare too).
My question would be, how has South Western Air stayed in the black for so many years?
According to 24/7 Wall St., here’s what Southwest’s fuel hedges look like for the coming years:
“2007 is 95% hedged at $50/barrel;
2008 is 65% hedged at $49/barrel;
2009 is over 50% hedged at $51/barrel;
2010 is over 25% hedged at $63/barrel;
2010 is over is 15% hedged at $64/barrel;
2012 is 15% hedged at $63/barrel.”
So they pay less than 1/2 as much for 65% of their fuel as their competitors. 2010 and beyond looks tougher, though.
At what point does southwest simply cut routes and sell some of their hedged fuel for a 100% (or more) profit?
No frills.
Only fly one type of plane (Boeing 737) - keeping operating costs down.
Try to stick with secondary airports (such as Midway in Chicago vs. O’Hare).
Limited routes.
Etc.
I’ve always enjoyed flying SWA. Not fond of the cattle call, but I always make sure I’m in the “A” line by checking in online 24 hours in advance.
I’m dating myself but I seem to recall when Southwest flew only Houston Hobby to Dallas Love back and forth every 45 minutes all day long.
Probably something like don’t try to be all things to all people, but find one niche, price it for value and be the best at it.
how has South Western Air stayed in the black for so many years? They have been able to hedge their fuel purchases cleverly for quite some time, but their success cannot go on forever. At some point they will have to pay charges for fuel similar to all other carriers.
in the black for 35 years and counting. Good management hs to be the main reason.
They hedge fuel costs with derivatives so fluctuations have little effect… they gamble so big in fuel and are positioned such that they’ll actually lose lots of money if fuel prices drop.
About 10% is owned by the workers through profit sharing, which makes for happy employees.. their happiness is evident to passengers and is somewhat contageous. Their independent pilot’s union (SWA Pilot’s Association) is disconnected from the ALPA.
one potential threat is airlines which are under bankruptcy protection might be able to undercut SWA fares.. but this assumes competing airline management will wise up, which i doubt.
“My question would be, how has South Western Air stayed in the black for so many years?”
In addition to all of the other factors stated by others, the Southwest point-to-point rather than hub-and-spoke route structure should be an increasing competitive advantage as fuel costs go higher.
I didn’t see anything in there about weighing passengers. But maybe they should.
I recall getting in a small commuter plane for a connecting flight out of Dallas, on a day when T-storms were around. We were told we were overweight, and someone would have to get off.
A very small woman hopped up and agreed to take the deal, and then they said we were OK. I looked over at another big guy — he and I could have split that woman for dinner — and we wondered if we would clear the top of the thunderheads.
“I didn’t see anything in there about weighing passengers. But maybe they should.”
There was a story on Bloomberg in the past couple of days about the possibility of airlines treating passengers more like freight in the weight sense.
Greyhound is looking more and more like a viable option to air travel…
How scary is that?
Shank’s mare and canoes are looking more like a viable option to air travel.
Check out MegaBus. They started up a US subsidiary in Chicago and it was so successful they added a Southern California system as well.
Nicer buses than Greyhound, faster (no stops along the route), and quite competitive on the pricing. If you book far enough in advance it’s substantially cheaper.
The real alternative is videoconferencing.
Just checked out the website and it looks like MegaBus now has a New York City-based system as well.
I took Megabus round trip Chicago-Cincinnati over Memorial Day weekend. The bus was $41 while Delta was $390.
Cheaper than driving the Accord too.
“They started up a US subsidiary in Chicago and it was so successful they added a Southern California system as well.”
They’ve exited or will soon exit California.
“The real alternative is videoconferencing.”
I’ve been surprised that isn’t already preferred. I know companies whose workers crisscross the state of NY for weekly meetings. (Sigh) I can’t believe that’s cost effective.
Southwest kind of does this now. If you have too much “girth” you have to buy 2 seats. Nothing worse than being on a plane with someone that spills over half way into your seat.
I was shocked - SHOCKED - I tell you, to read that American Airlines is cutting out their pretzels (seriously) on all domestic flights, to reduce costs.
Really - how bad do things have to be to cut out the friggin’ mini bags of pretzels as a cost-cutting measure? We’re talking big-time desperation. The airlines are in a WORLD of hurt.
In related news, United announced yesterday their killing their TED service. Sucks for me actually since my family often uses that to fly down to visit family in Florida. For our summer trip this year we’re taking the auto train actually; mainly because flights are so expensive. The auto train isn’t exactly cheap, but it’s now about the same in price, whereas it used to be a lot more expensive than flying.
FedEx and UPS will be next, the price of shipping things by air is going to get astronomical.
I lot of the places I deal with held the line on their S&H through about late April, and then just like oil prices, it was off to the races. A typical jump has been $7.50 to $11.00 for example.
On the bright side it seems parcels are moving a heckuva lot faster, even for this time of year. Hmmmmm?
the price of shipping things is going to rise a great deal, no matter what method is used.
Shipping by rail and by barge will make a comeback, at least for commercial / industrial uses.
Freight-by-rail should get a real shot in the arm because of the rise in fossil fuel costs.
Your going to be even more shocked when you find out that it is US Air that is getting rid of pretzels on their flights.
Yeah, AA hasn’t given out pretzels in quite a while (I’d say at least the past two years). In steerage, they don’t even give you a free meal on intra-continental flights. On my last cross country flight (over Memorial Day weekend), I wound up buying the “cheese, cracker, and nuts” tray for $4 on a flight from MIA to LAX.
Heavy people are going to frame it as a civil rights issue. Just like they don’t want to pay higher insurance because they carry a disproportionate share of disease burden due to their weight.
I’m ambiguous about whether it’s right, because they are the brunt of plenty of unfair discrimination from society already. However, it is unfair to the majority that they have to uncomplainingly subsidize the negative consequences of their obesity simply because it hurts their feelings.
If you subsidize something, at least you should be able to talk about it and constructively help them find solutions.
” it is unfair to the majority that they have to uncomplainingly subsidize the negative consequences of their obesity”
where have you been? The obese ARE the majority in the US. 60% of americans are now obese. Maybe they should offer discounts for people weighing less than 180#s
Yeah and it pisses me off. We all pay when they get the inevitable Type II diabetes and everything that goes with it, and need knee surgery, back surgery, and SSD payments, which gets them Medicare and subsidized housing too. How many times have we read of “disabled” FBs here then went to check out the story and saw their photo and thought, uh-huh oh NOW I get it…it’s an FFB.
Now we’ll probably get some sort of universal health care going just when it will cost the most. By popular demand!
/rant
“Heavy people are going to frame it as a civil rights issue.”
I doubt it. What fat folk are complaining about now is the airlines’ tendency to make seats smaller, then blame larger passengers for infringing on other persons’ spaces. It would actually be more fair for everyone if the airlines installed realistically-sized seating, then charged a base per-passenger weight fee with a per-pound surcharge over that. Do the same with luggage to dissuade people from hauling stuff on planes that they could and should ship.
Setting the base weight at, say, 100 pounds, would also solve the problem of kids on planes. Most parents wouldn’t be able to afford to take Bratley and Snotleigh on planes anymore. Result - families would return to using the family car on vacations, or stay at home, and flyers would enjoy a quieter, more civilized flight.
Can I have an “Amen?”
Late to the party on this subject, but none of you know what you are talking about
Airlines calculate their weight and balance at an AVERAGE passenger weight, per occupied seat (some use 170 lbs, others have started using 200). Same with bags/luggage.
Believe me, you don’t want the airlines to start charging per pound. By the time the flight crew weighed 200-500 passengers and their bags, then figured out where everyone was sitting on the airplane (to get the Moment, for weight and balance calculations). you MIGHT get in one flight a day, if you are lucky.
Maybe we should trade obesity credits? If we can trade carbon credits, why not this?
This is fantastic.
My wife will go nuts and lose some weight every time we go on a trip!
Why the surprise, given the deregulation juggernaut of the 1990s which is still rolling along?
Watchdog alert over return of insider trading
By Joanna Chung in Washington
Published: June 4 2008 19:40 | Last updated: June 4 2008 19:40
Insider trading on Wall Street is starting to look as troubling as it was in the time of Ivan Boesky in the 1980s, the head of enforcement at the US Securities and Exchange Commission warned on Wednesday.
Linda Chatman Thomsen, the SEC’s director of enforcement, said she had been “quite dismayed” at the nature of the commission’s recent insider dealing actions.
insider trading?
in other news the sun will come up today
One theory is that the level of insider trading is nearly constant, but it is so much easier to see the insider traders along with all the other naked swimmers when the water recedes from the beach.
When everyone’s raking it in, nobody complains much.
It’s always been around.
Yeah - i was wondering when somebody would realise what mobile phones and sms messages have done to their internal monitoring processes.
More holes than a swiss cheese.
Watch out very, very carefully for these slithey toads who gyre and gimble in the wade…
“…Linda Chatman Thomsen, the SEC’s director of enforcement,”
Oh, I certain Crissy Cox has a high pedigree pit bull in this position, you go Crissy…only 6 months & 18 days ’till you back in Newport Beach, shopping at Fascists Island for new swim shorts with sequins.
Wasn’t the plan a couple of months back to turn the Fed into a crisis-management SWAT team?
Backstage at a Bank Funeral
In its role as receiver for failed banks, the FDIC acts as a SWAT team, playing equal parts secret agent, medical examiner, salesman and grief counselor. It isn’t easy to liquidate a bank without anyone knowing, and secrecy is a must. But a Journal reporter was given a rare window into the little-known process.
“You roll back the stones, and you find slithering things.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Credit Strain Flares Again After Relief Since March
By Liz Rappaport and Serena Ng
Word Count: 953 | Companies Featured in This Article: MBIA, Ambac Financial Group, Wachovia, Lehman Brothers Holdings, GMAC
The relative calm that has prevailed over credit markets since mid-March, when the Federal Reserve stepped in to help a fragile system, shows signs of dissipating.
And the Great Unwind rolls on …
Anyone checked out the ABX indices lately? (I have)
Even the higher rated stuff looks headed back to where it was in March. Eeenteresting.
Do you know where can you find them?
Oh the humanity!
Thanks Professor! Those are extremely interesting numbers.
The concept of AAA rated subprime is still hard to get my head around…….
New Vigor Brought To Defense of the Dollar
By Deborah Solomon and Michael M. Phillips
Word Count: 789
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s warning this week about the dollar’s steep fall marks the latest step in a Bush administration effort that began in November to use stronger rhetoric to try to prop up the sagging U.S. currency.
“…the latest step in a Bush administration effort that began in November…”
Could someone please clarify whether the Fed chairman job is a cabinet post?
It a Presidential appointment.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve is not, nor ever has been, a member of the President’s Cabinet. Moreover, he is not considered part of the Executive Branch, as the Federal Reserve is (in theory) an independent body.
He is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senata.
Funny, then, that the WSJ considers the BB jawboning effort to be a continuation of a Bush administration effort that began last November…
No, it’s not really that funny.
rhetoric is all the have left. bunch of lame ducks with the lamest one on top.
The Board of Governers (of which BB is currently the chair) is considered to be a government agency, according to the Fed’s website anyway.
Given that the President appoints the chair, that sorta makes the Prez the de facto “boss” of the chair. It’s not a complicated relationship.
And keeping with my comment above…
“I’m not dead.”
“There, he says he’s not dead.”
“yes he is.”
“I’m not!”
“He isn’t!”
“Well he will soon, he’s quite ill.”
I’m getting better!”
“WHACK!!!”
Oh- Thanks very much!
Don’t mention it…
Today’s economy, however, is more flexible in responding to difficulties and the country is more energy efficient than a generation ago, Bernanke said.
“Since 1975, the energy required to produce a given amount of output in the United States has fallen by half,” he said.
Interesting, “the energy required to produce a given amount of output in the United States has fallen by half”. I guess it doesn’t take all that much energy to produce CDOs and other assorted bubbles versus real goods. That Bernanke fellow is a real genius.
I know you’re sounding snarky but you’re actually right. “Output” in the form of real goods takes tremendous amounts of energy. We shipped all that — along with all its pollution — to China.
All that’s left is computer-generated “output.” And when we finally stop building houses, we’ll be even more efficient!
“We shipped all that — along with all its pollution — to China.”
Which way does the jet stream blow… towards Europe of towards US?
Oh, and all those toxic tid-bits with “Made in China” sitting on the shelves of every retail store in America. 
“The enemy of the conventional wisdom is not ideas but the march of events.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Thanks for the JKG quotes the past couple of days. Where’d that one come from?
It came from “The Affluent Society”, a great read…
–
Time to re-read. I am a big fan of JKG. I consider Milton Friedman an ideologue and not an economist.
Jas
JKG is credited with coining the oft-used CW term.
During the past week, we traveled from:
-San Diego to LA (Sherman Oaks, abbreviated SO) and
-from SO to Pasadena and back
-from SO to Glendale and back
-from SO to San Diego
-drove the “Ventura Blvd.” corridor which is the main east/west road that runs through the better parts of the San Fernando Valley. Very busy, higher-end commercial real estate.
We are both Southern Californians and our families were involved in commercial and industrial development and property management, and residential sales and investment, so we’ve seen RE and economic cycles before.
This is what we saw:
1. Much ligher traffic. At no time did traffic slow below 45 mph (if that) during any of our commutes — even during rush hour. This is **VERY unusual** for these commutes.
2. More graffiti that I ever remember seeing before, especially throughout LA city (downtown and surrounding areas), but it was evident everywhere. It looks like gang activity is spiking.
3. Along Ventura Blvd., it looks like there are more vacancies than I ever remember seeing, and some entire buildings that are standing empty. Would love more input from other long-time Valley residents…do you think it looks worse than during other recessions?
4. We attended open houses in Sherman Oaks (high-end area) and saw homes in the high-$500K to $3MM range. Very little traffic in the lower-end, and very steady traffic in the more expensive houses. Many foreigners (especially Asian and Iranian), but that’s not necessarily unusual for this area.
5. Don Kott Ford, a large dealership next to the 405 fwy is now closed, ans weeds are growing up all over the parking lot. This dealership has been there for as long as I can remember. They are being replaced by a used-car dealership, even though the city had banned UC dealerships…they NEED the tax money.
http://www.presstelegram.com/news/ci_9229205
All in all, a very interesting trip. Based only on this trip, the economy looks much worse than I had thought. Thought LA would hold out quite a while longer. It looks even worse than San Diego to me.
oops! Make that “native” Southern Californians above.
It isn’t just the San Fernando Valley. Thousand Oaks is flooded with illegals, and the deterioration is apparent. Tagging, the bad element, and weak commercial real estate is in the Conejo Valley too. Parts of Thousand Oaks look like Van Nuys West now.
Some of the CVUSD school websites have a Spanish section. Thousand Oks is living on its history, just like the state.
Yes, the change in the last year has been quite dramatic.
I have seen lots of tagging going on here in Weho, 90048 for the first time since I moved here in 2002. What’s worse, is we woke up Sunday morning to my fiance’s car with a shattered window. They took her gps and camera from the glove box, along with all of her various car chargers.
About the gang activity, about 6 months ago, I saw a kid spray-painting a wall on a building around the corner, first hand. Kind of stupid, but I yelled at him - ‘what the hell are you doing’. He just gave me a blank stare and kept on going. He was just a little sh*t.
Yes, very noticable change around here. The traffic has thinned out a lot - it’s shocking. Worth the extra ‘gas tax’.
Why doesn’t California ban spray paint(I’m sure the aerosol cans can’t be good for the air)?
I can’t remember the last time I bought paint in an aerosol can.
–
Thanks for the report. My son rents just N of Ventura Blvd in SO. I have been noticing light traffic for several months when I go for visits.
Rogue economists at UCLA Anderson Forecast need to leave their ivory tower and drive around at least once a month.
Jas
Jas,
My husband grew up there and his mother still lives in SO (I grew up in Woodland Hills). We visit fairly often, and have always been on the lookout for signs that show the strength/weakness of the econonmy (for many years now).
We hadn’t been there in a few months, and it looks like things have really changed in just that short amount of time. Are you noticing the same thing?
Wow. It’s really a shame what’s happening there. The Valley was a very nice place “back in the day”.
“1. Much ligher traffic. At no time did traffic slow below 45 mph (if that) during any of our commutes — even during rush hour. This is **VERY unusual** for these commutes.”
Traffic in San Diego seems lighter at most times now, sometimes almost pleasant at times when it wasn’t in the not too distant past. Peak times and locations can still be quite congested, though.
If not for the added costs to everything else, $4+/gallon gas almost seems worth it at times just for the traffic benefit. (paid $4.23 this morning, high price leader near the office in RB is $4.45)
“Peak times and locations can still be quite congested, though.”
Prime example: last night on any southbound route into Mission Valley. This is the second time in the past year or so that Qualcomm Stadium has hosted a “friendly” for the Mexican national soccer team. the irony of that does not cease to amuse me. Since roughly half of the population of Mexico apparently lives in north county/LA/etc., this made for a lovely evening commute home from Carmel Valley.
Tijuana adjacent. Ha! More like “Norte Tijauna”
My anecdotal $.02:
I have actually recently taken to “challenge” my commute. I’ve been leaving home late at around 8am in order to hit the 405/101 at right around 9am. That’s the maximum rush hour traffic.
What have I found? Today it was top speed all the way to my exit at Sherman Way. 3 months ago there would have been backup past the 118.
Txchick:
From yesterday’s thread re: McCain’s VP. Sorry I didn’t check back in.
Female VP? I’d love it and I believe it could scramble a bit of Obama support. Condi would never fly b/c she’s been savaged so badly although that’s not my opinion of her.
I would love it if he chose Bobby Jindal and that would help some but he really needs to address the market mess and who is going to pay for it. I can’t see him doing it in detail for money raising reasons.
It’s going to be an interesting general.
Local radio speculates that Hillary sits in wait for a big bomb to be dropped on Obama. Who knows? Why wouldn’t she have done that through some surrogate if anything was there?
I give Obama and crew a lot of credit. They’ve run a very good campaign so far and they definitely have to wow appeal.
This one really is a nobrainer. Unfortunately, there are a lot of people with no brains running amok. Maybe of the GOP schedules a mega episode of American Idol on election day, they can keep most of them at home.
Anybody catch that high school pep-rally speech (complete with dozens of people in the audience) by Johnny Mac, in Louisiana?
Strictly Junior Varsity…
Yeah, he was pathetic. It was like he was presiding over his own funeral.
LOL
True though.
Yes now let’s look at the substance of one vs. the other.
I didn’t know that one human had the power to make the oceans rise again.
Tx, He doesn’t have that power. I think you’re just looking at the mobs in support for him that appear to be a tsunami coming at you.
More like the
tidal wave of HRC supporters who will stay home on election night…or worse, vote for GRANDPA
Yaaa… Kinda like Fox News and Richard Scaifes thug organization cozying up to HC because they like here.
What are they so afraid of?
blah blah blah…complete BS, these people were never going to vote for a democrat to begin with. Its the same bunch of jokers who said they voted for kerry in exit polls.
blah blah blah…one look at grandpa metamucil will send this crowd to the opposing camp. This is early days….wait and watch.
Geritol Johnny is inspiring nobody…
He makes Alf Landon seem memorable.
Lmao… yea…. all those feminists will rush out and vote for McCain who foolishly flip flopped on every issue important to fringe groups on the left and right. First he’s pro-choice, now he’s against it, then he’s for civil unions, now he’s against it.
What will it be tomorrow Mr. McFlipFlop?
1936 just called, they want your joke back.
1936?
That just happens to be Geritol Johnny’s birthyear…
Lest we forget what the warhawk McBush wants to keep rolling.
http://icasualties.org/oif/
You know - I’m not really for the war, but IMO using a casualty count as justification for *not* having the war is very weak. Just to put it in context, see:
http://www.soyouwanna.com/site/toptens/accidents/accidentsfull.html
- 43,200 deaths per year due to automobiles
- 14,900 per year due to falls
- 8,600 per year due to poisoning
etc. etc.
So 4,100 deaths in 5 years is actually an incredibly small number, in the grand scheme of things. Yes I know it sounds cold, but my point is that deaths by itself is a weak argument. IMO the economic impact and the world opinion impact are much bigger factors.
For instance even from a “lives lost” standpoint - the money spent on the Iraq war, if it were instead applied to third-world health care, would probably save many times over the lives - like probably millions - at least from a direct cost/benefit standpoint.
However as we know (or should know) - it’s a lot more complex than that. We don’t know what would have happened if we hadn’t gone to war - maybe terrorism would be much more prevalent than it is, or maybe not. Maybe Saddam would have acquired or built his WMD after all, maybe not. The long-term ramifications of this war are much bigger than 4,100 lives.
(OK - time for me to walk outside with that iron rod, and accept that lightning strike I know I’ve got coming)
It isn’t so much the lives we’ve lost in dubious battle…
It’s the mindset of those that are going to come back from a lost cause, wondering why they gave their all?
Not only the mindset, but the tens of thousands coming back with serious physical disabilities that make this so-called war different. Injuries that would have killed soldiers in past conflicts are *only* maiming them now due to the effectiveness of body armor. My heart goes out to all those service men and women who were schnookered into this mess because they wanted to give back to their country/ believed in their political leadership/ or were just plain had. It really pi$$es me off.
For all you boomers out there. Does anyone remember the term VIETNAMIZATION? It was Nixons plan to end the war. Turn over the fighting to the vietnamese. Well, he did and in 1975 they ran like hell. Does that sound vagely familiar to Iraq. Train them to defend themselves???? We sent 56,000 men to their deaths in Vietnam, screwed up the lives of millions of others..for what? The North took over and, geeze, the world didn’t end and now were friends again. These politicians just don’t get it. Let the Iraq’s have at it…last man standing wins..who cares what government they have or don’t have..we can nuke them anytime! Ya, big threat, our military went thru them in 4 days…its all about Cheney and big oil! I was an officer in the Army at that time. Today, I do my best to discourage our young people from joining any of the services. No life is worth a barrel of oil. AND, as long as I’m on this rant…a soldier dies, he gets what a 50k insurance policy to his family. He gets disabled and shit on…why in the hell did the 911 people get millions?
I’m NOT in agreement with you that the lives lost (and serious injuries) from the Iraq war are in any way small/insignificant.
HOWEVER - I have long believed that the number of people killed or injured in traffic accidents in this country is amazing, and I’ve always been amazed that we don’t try to do more to reduce that shocking number. It’s a Vietnam-War-sized (the whole thing) loss of life on our roads every year.
I realize we’ve done a lot in terms of vehicle safety, and there is some effort of law enforcement — but I am amazed we don’t do more as a society to make people drive more carefully and responsibly.
txchick57,
You are right on about the election. The problem is good number of people look at this election like it is American Idol. “Wow he is such a good speaker”, “he can sure motivate”. Once they have their first debate and McCain kills Obama on substance the poll numbers will melt for Obama. Also, look at the last 10-15 primaries Clinton wiped Obama off the map in the Reagan democrat crowd. Those folks will vote in droves for McCain. All year Obama’s poll numbers have not fit with reality of the primaries, anywhere from 4-8% of the people lie as they do not want to be perceived as a racist if they do indicate their preference for Obama. I used to think Clinton was the weaker candidate I think Obama is a gift to McCain now. Electoral map does not look good for Obama. By the way is there anywhere you can legally bet on the race?
CORRECTION : “they do NOT indicate their preference for Obama.
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, no.
yes - bodog - to your betting on the race question.
Sportsbook too I think.
Once they have their first debate and McCain kills Obama on substance the poll numbers will melt for Obama. Also, look at the last 10-15 primaries Clinton wiped Obama off the map in the Reagan democrat crowd.
Agree. I even saw Greta Van Susteren, no liberal commentator she, comment on the red flag this should be sending up for the DNC (HRC’s wins in battleground states). She was surprised that none of the dem honchos seemed to be taking note.
I know they’re banking on dems uniting behind BO but hell hath no fury as a woman scorned.
correction:
…Greta, no
liberalconservative commentator sheExactly, there are feminists groups starting Clinton supporters for McCain groups already. If I were in charge of the party I would prefer the wrath of black voters over middle age white women any day of the week.
menopause is a formidable opponent
and compare that to this
(from Redstate)
1) I certainly AM one of you – some flatter me with the honorific Ringleader of the Fredheads. As we say, aw go on…..
(2) I state it here and now: Fred Thompson would have been the best nominee, he would have beaten Obama, and he would have absolutely been the best 44th President out of this field of 20-ish candidates. He would have unified the party around conservative themes and brought in plenty of the political center due to a clear, winning message that all Republicans would have heartily rallied around. And coattails galore.
(3) I have demonstrated my conservative chops – the Russell Kirk diaries, et al.
(4) Like you, I have major difficulties with McCain as the Republican nominee, and with McCain as the 44th President.
And for reasons I’ll explain at length, I am here to say to my compatriots….
It’s time for the Fredheads to set aside our differences with McCain and get busy getting him elected, for the long-term good of the conservative cause.
Many of you are with me already, some tenuously. I am here to say it’s not ideal, but it is a slam-dunk argument. And we need to do it.
I state it here and now: Fred Thompson would have been the best nominee, he would have beaten Obama, and he would have absolutely been the best 44th President out of this field of 20-ish candidates.
hahahahahahahaha….that is the funniest thing I have read all morning.
The delusion runs deep, don’t it?
the point is, we don’t have a bunch of pissed off people running to the other side. We know when you have to take one for the team. You’ll see how that works out in November.
We know when you have to take one for the team.
John McCain certainly took one for the team at the Hanoi Hilton. I can understand reasonable disagreement or disdain for his policy, but I’ve also seen contemptible commentary regarding his service to our country. If the Dems think that’s a winning strategy, I really hope they roll with it.
Both sides do contemptible things, that’s for sure. Also: republicans use war service when its convenient, because the person has served, and ignore it, when the person is a draft dodger (Bush, Cheney). They also make big issues about whether a person is wearing a flag pin or not.
http://www.bush-mccainchallenge.com/?rc=homepage
“Electoral map does not look good for Obama.”
Like I asked Txchick yesterday:
O.K., here is the Charlie Brown Political Calculus:
Our US Soldiers in Iraq & Afghanistan:
Obama: 100 days
McCain: 100 years
Choose
Well we have been in Germany and Japan for 63 years seems fine to me. We seem to have a nice terrorist holding facility in Cuba that we have occupied for over a 100 years. How about 53 years for South Korea? By the way he was talking about a base type arrangement, not fighting 100 years. Of course you know that.
Not one US serviceman was killed due to hostile action during the occupations of Germany and Japan. They were defeated in WWII and the people accepted the surrender.
You cannot have bases in a country with a hostile population and not take casualties indefinitely. Remember Vietnam? Somalia? Etcetera.
A lot of people here make a bunch of wild and groundless claims about Obama and ignore the fact that McCain says many of the same things, or is just pandering to the Republican base with the same tired “I won’t tax you” rhetoric.
The Republicans have created the largest fiscal deficit in history in just 6 (of
years in power.
I’ll say the same thing I’ve said already: There is no ideal candidate, and there never will be. The only obligation we have as Americans is to make an informed choice and vote!
If you call the U.S. being the biggest debtor nation ever, working out fine, I guess it is. the fact of the matter is we are broke, the sooner we admit it the better off we will be. McCain and Obama both lack substance and are stooges. If these are the people driving the bus we are truly screwed. Limit the choice to the preselected stooges and let the rabble think they have a voice.
Not one US serviceman was killed due to hostile action during the occupations of Germany and Japan. Sorry, there is at least one exception which disproves this statement. At Arlington National Cemetery I met a man whose GI father (or grandfather) was killed by a Nazi sniper in Germany after V-E day, which is the beginning of the occupation of Germany. I am sure there are other exceptions. All generalizations are false, including this one.
yogurt,
Would you go tell my Uncle he wasn’t killed by a NAZI SS sniper two weeks AFTER the surrender in Germany? Also would you tell my other uncle who died in a B-17 Crash in Germany after the war he didn’t die. How about all the soldiers killed in training accidents in the past 60 years? Had we not been based there they would probably be alive as well. How about pulling the chicago cops out of chicago (now where is obama from?) as the murder rate is soaring there right now? Seems like to me McCain’s idea for the surge sure is working out pretty well. More american kids were killed in chicago last month then in Iraq.
Yes, there was a bunch of SS activity for a couple of years after the war - low grade guerilla activity, but nasty enough for all of that.
Intrade
Not to be impolite, however if I was advising JMc, I would tell him to disappear from public meetings/speeches. Let the GOP hit squad and the Dems respond. With that, he should win by a landslide!
O will, over the next few months, make JMc look like G. Washington!
Believe me, I have no love for any of the candidates. As a conservative Dem/indep., all I can do is sit back and watch. It looks like the American public will have to endure another 4 years before they are willing to face the fact that temporary solutions will not solve our problems. imho
don’t apologize, your posts always have a tone of civility about them.
Sometimes when we go off on politcal tangents things get heated on this blog, but you’re always reasonable.
imho
Phillgal,
Its not that I do not have an ego, however, this crowd is high powered(more knowledgeable). I am not looking to prove a point, but to challenge my belief with facts and opposing arguments.
As been said before by others, and I include myself, I am not the sharpest crayon in the box or the sharpest tool in the shed.
Thank you for your complement!
Why not Hillary?
Obama isn’t going to give it to her, and she’s already proven that she’s willing to sell the Democrats down the river to further her ambition. A McCain/Clinton ticket would ensure a victory in 2008 and then she could run in 2012.
It’s not like McCain is a real Republican!
McCain/Hillary would ensure a victory for Obama. Obama supporters would turn out in droves to vote against Hillary to take revenge on her for dragging out the primary. Hard-core Hillary supporters would stay home in droves because they are feminists that would never vote for pro-life McCain. Republicans would stay home in droves, also to “vote” against Hillary. She’s poison no matter where you put her.
It’s not like McCain is a real Republican!
You’re right. He’s not a cowardly hypocrite. I’ll give him credit for that.
Where does your major city score in debt?
http://www.menshealth.com/debt/
I don’t know where they get the data, but it appears my hometown of Yonkers NY scores big for folks not being in debt. I’ll bet if you broke out the area of Brooklyn where I live now you’d see the same.
Must be something in the water.
We’re going to read about “debt” from Mens Health?!?
What next? Financial news from Vogue? Fashion trends from The Economist?
Where does the madness stop?
Just wait until Murdoch really gets his claws into the WSJ.
Murdoch: Looks like we’re going to crash.’
Face: No, what’s *really* going to happen?
Murdoch: Looks like we’re going to crash and die.
B.A. Baracus: I pity the fool who goes out tryin’ a’ take over da world, then runs home cryin’ to his momma!
I love it when a plan comes together.
“Hey boys and girls, can you say SUBPRIME MELTDOWN?”
“I knew you could”
SD (aka Enron-by-the-Sea) did not even rank in the top ten (gulp!)…
The data really should be population weighted. I’d bet you Enron-by-the-Sea would show up then.
They are comparing New York, NY and Chicago, IL to Lubbock, TX?
C’mon, pull the other one!!!
Something’s not right when one uses those metrics attempting to compare Burlington, VT (pop. ~35,000) to NYC (pop. ~ 8,000,000).
In a stunning turn of events, AAA batteries have been downgraded to BBB status.
Will the letter “A” retain its position as the first letter of the alphabet?
LOLOLOLOLOLOL.
what would you do for a Klondike bar …
So I conducted a little experiment. I sent in my loan information/request for refinance quote anonymously through Zillow’s new service.
The first time, I was refinanced up a point or more, with cash due at signing. Insurance and taxes were WAY off.
The second time, same information, but I provided my current loan information and tax / insurance numbers in the “comments” section. Up a point or more, or down less than a point, with a higher payment. Not including tax and insurance.
Only one guy with his generic message inserted comments: DON’T REFINANCE NOW, IT WILL COST YOU $ FOR 10 YEARS OR MORE BEFORE YOU SEE AN ACTUAL SAVINGS.
==========================
So is anyone running a pool on what banks are on th FDIC’s list? With WAMU and Wachovia folks stepping down, as well as other banks, is there a to 10 list of signs you should move your money out ASAP?
Only one guy with his generic message inserted comments: DON’T REFINANCE NOW, IT WILL COST YOU $ FOR 10 YEARS OR MORE BEFORE YOU SEE AN ACTUAL SAVINGS.
And was he immediately fired for providing honest information?
probably ;).
This was someone on the other side of the country. The guys from Orlando and Tampa were insane. Same mortgage, same terms, one point higher, imaginary insurance and taxes, higher payment. Oh, and bring 6k to signing.
Cause and effect. “All of the chaos makes perfect sense”.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aE.ZVl8VRPq4&refer=home
wall street layoffs and manhattan real estate
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1823695720080605?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
More and more moving vans. Wishing rents not finding tenants.
It’s gonna be an interesting year for NYC.
My brother-in-law works for S&P (non-rating, non-CDO), and he says another round of layoffs are looming there. That’ll be Round 3, according to him.
This is the reason why rents in Forest Hills are $1700 for a tiny 2BR. Apparently, there is belief that everyone will move to Forest Hills from Mahnattan because everyone wants to live in Forest Hills. At least that is the song realtors currently sing.
Former Obama ally Antoin ‘Tony’ Rezko found guilty
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-rezko5-2008jun05,0,4383044.story?track=rss
“Rezko had befriended many Illinois politicians and was a major fundraiser for some, most prominently Blagojevich and Obama. The criminal charges against Rezko had nothing to do with his connection to Obama. But that link still proved a nagging headache during Obama’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, especially in the wake of Chicago Tribune revelations that linked Rezko to a 2005 real estate deal involving Obama’s home.”
“If” Hillary has really bowed out the true vetting of Obama can begin. IMO we’ll find that he’s got a lot of baggage and he’s not quite ready to be the President, giving McCain his dream shot.
Not quite and never will be. A wolf in sheep’s clothing.
My theory is that one of these two will win with a big margin. The issue will be the job the Rs are able to do educating the American public who this guy really is, what he stands for, what he has done in the past, who he has associated with and continues to associate with and how little experience he really has. Notice in his speech yesterday, he demands that his church not be discussed. Damn straight he doesn’t want that. The 527s need to really get busy and I’m sure they will.
I’ve been quite pleased that religion has gotten it’s comeuppance finally, as in whatever malarkey it’s agents of intolerance utter, it will be on you-tube sooner than later.
you are speaking with a motivated perception
I forget to mention the voting record while in the Senate. That needs to be brought out as well.
As long as they accurately report the voting record on both sides. McCain represents *change* from Bush, despite voting as directed by the prez 95% of the time.
Luckily, people aren’t that stupid.
27% approval ratings, anyone???
The issue will be the job the Rs are able to do educating the American public who this guy really is
I think they have a MUCH bigger problem: McCain is now synonymous with continuing action in Iraq and money going to Iraq is now synonymous with the poor economy.
Somebody needs to convince the public of either:
1. McCain has turned around on Iraq, or
2. The Iraq war is good for the economy.
Yes. I think this year’s election will be seen as a vote between the lesser of two evils, at a level never before experienced. It’ll be Obama and his inexperience, religious nutcase affiliation, and extreme liberalism vs. McCain and his continuance of the war and the perceived continuance of the Bush legacy.
I’m on the fence as to who will end up winning, but I’m leaning towards Obama.
Uh-oh. Obama has BIG problems. These guys are the biggest contrary indicators invented since Cramer:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080605/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_usa_politics_prdictions
“…The issue will be the job the Rs are able to do educating the American public”
Please hurry up kids, we need genetic progress today!
Start cloning these Republican “educators” ASAP:
1. Rush Limpbaugh
2. Ann Coulter
The rest can wait…
oh, okay. I guess you prefer Arianna Huffington (a real certified nutcase) or Al Franken (the pornographer)
Do they have National Radio shows where they proclaim:
“Listen to me, I know everything…you don’t even have to think & I’ll think for you…I’m right 99.7% of the time”
OxyContin addicts only have about a .3% margin of error?
Franken did but was dumped off the air due to lack of interest.
Okay, enough. This is a housing blog and none of us will change the others’ minds. We’ve all staked out our positions, let’s leave the politics now to that relating to the housing bubble.
It’s only 98.5% right now, silly…..
Okay, enough. This is a housing blog and none of us will change the others’ minds. We’ve all staked out our positions, let’s leave the politics now to that relating to the housing bubble.
I agree but can I just say one more tiny little thing…
It’s pointless to trot out the extreme examples of either party, because the battleground in national elections in the middle.
Which of the two prez candidates has an established record of middle groundedness?
you know the answer to that. The right hates it too.
“Which of the two prez candidates has an established record of middle groundedness?”
“He who walks in the middle of the road gets hit from both sides.”
George Schultz (to Richard Nixon).
“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
No, let’s instead just create a bunch of unsubstantiated rumors about Michelle Obama, question the family’s patriotism, and keep repeating Obama’s middle name, so that the weak
mindedsisters can rally around fear and ignorance instead of facts.This has been the Republican strategy for the last 8 years…and possibly even the last 40. That’s why I’ve become an apostate (I’m registered Republican, but won’t be voting for them on any national ticket this year).
The republican strategy will be to stress international events and the democratic party will (like always) fall prey to the strategy. If the democratic party can keep the issue on domestic events then the democratic party will win.
No party has lost the presidency or the election based on international events. If Mr. Kerry had stressed domestic problems in 2004 he would have won. Instead Mr. Kerry got sucked into the ‘terrorism, national defense, Iraq and Afghanistan’ BS. A very difficult position to unseat a president or a party.
Hoz, the turrrist BS will get trumped by domestic issues in consideration of the destruction the GOP induced supply side mantra has created in Anytown, USA. The only thing that can change that will be
1) Collapse in oil
2) A magical 50% across the board pay increase
The national security lie doesn’t work when J6P woke up and votes with his wallet. Also, (r)’s are going to be very surprised when their supposed strength on national security gets met head on and exposed for the lie that it really is. Very surprised.
The election won’t be decided by the economy, social issues or international events. Those choices are obvious and we don’t even need more than a spec sheet to know how they stand on the major issues.
It will be decided instead by whether or not J6P feels “represented” by a half-black man or an old white man, who has the best commercials, or if one of them (or their inner circle) says something ambiguous and has a “gotcha” moment that the media can run away with.
I suspect exeter and NoSingleone are closer to what will happen than I.
Unless every member of congress is removed it does not matter who gets elected.
I can’t wait to be educated by GOP family values hypocrites like Twinkle Toes Larry Craig, Hooker chaser David Vitter and Mark “I like boys” Foley.
take a gander at this month’s Vanity Fair
After he demanded his wife was hands off too. They’re both fair game. What a dolt.
McCain’s wife stole drugs from the charity she organized to help the medically indigent abroad. Who knows if the money you send to his campaign is going up her nose or not? McCain declared her off limits too, so fair’s fair.
“The issue will be the job the (opposition) are able to do educating the American public who this guy really is, what he stands for, what he has done in the past, who he has associated with and continues to associate with and how little experience he really has.”
None of that seemed to hurt Bush in the last election.
I don’t think anyone can predict the election because so much can (and will) happen before election day in November.
If the unemployment rate really rises, gasoline sells for $7/gallon, the Dow crashes under 10,000 and inflation particularily in food worsens (The Peter Schiff predictions) do you really think another Republican has any chance of winning?
On the other hand, if W lobs a few missiles into Iran and they respond by closing the gulf, not to mention sending some of their revolutionary guards into Iraq - perhaps even firing a few missiles of their own at Israel, do you really think Obama has any chance of winning?
Stay tuned….
Why would Iraq send Revolutionary Guards into Iraq? Their Shia allies already control the Iraqi “Government” and their allied militias control the streets. You did know that, didn’t you?
An armed conflict with Iraq and the associated disruption of oil supplies would turn the unfolding US recession into another Great Depression. I don’t see how that would be positive for McCain.
Sorry, that should be “Why should Iran…”.
Many of Iraq’s Shia leaders lived in exile in Iran during Saddam’s rule BTW.
That doesn’t even make sense.
It’s finally started folks, even the Middle of Nowhere couldn’t hold out forever. You’ve seen me grouse about the incredible prices here in this tiny, remote town - strictly held up by sleight of hand and whacky mortgage products. The homes in my neighborhood are a minimum of 225K (small and old) and up and “it was never going down”.
Well, that’s a crock. Yesterday my realtor friend called me and wanted me to look at a house around the corner that’s been for sale for a while (owned by a re-location company). It’s nice, about 2150 feet, big back yard, newer, lots of upgrades etc. It hasn’t gone anywhere. Well it was originally listed on the market at 239K, then dropped to 225K, yesterday it was dropped to 209K and “they were willing to take offers and pay the closing costs”.
If this place sells now, it will drag the comps in the areas down by what? 20%. My friend wants me to buy it (of course), I have to admit that it’s an attractive price because of its location, features etc. However, I’m leaning towards “no” because I still think it will get down to $80 a square foot as opposed to the $100 it’s at now. Plus, as is evident from the MLS, the whole area is frozen up and slowly dropping (the problem is, that the price reductions are tiny - less than 2-3% on average for houses that have been on the market for over a year).
I’m thinking I’ll still stay on the sidelines, but I see the cracks really starting to widen around here.
If the cracks are only just showing, there will be a steep decline in a year.
I see similar things out here in New York. Oh, and rents are dropping which will have NO effect on prices, of course.
What you’ve posted describes what I’ve seen the VT market as well. There’s nothing holding up prices except what people think they should get for their house. Price reductions are the moment are tiny and “grudging”. I saw a reduced price on a very over priced lot of land - it came down from $175,900 all the way to $169,900 after having been on the market for more than a year.
15% off a probably high ask price?? No way. If it’s such a great deal, ask your friend to buy it.
And tell your friend you’ll offer 100K and see what his reaction is. Should give you an idea of who he’s really looking out for.
Heheh, I should, he’s actually a pretty good guy (outside of being a realtor), we travel in the same “upper” social circle (unfortunately due to my wife), he’s basically been honest about why the market is dead. No-one qualifies anymore.
EXCEPT, he’s not admitting the fact that the whole market here is based on smoke, mirrors, and manipulation between about 10 builders, banks, and realtors (including himself) that has pumped the market average to about 5-8 times the median household income. Unsustainable without wacky products from REMCO.
That’s why for me, “Caveat Emptor” has to be a committed way of life around here, not just a wise saying.
Why not offer 180?
“Bush/McCain plan for 100 years in Iraq”
Apparently McCain was dead serious about 100 years of war in Iraq.
http://tinyurl.com/5jhmu7
Change you can believe in
Obama, Jim Johnson, and Change We Can Believe In [Byron York]
On Obama veep-searcher Jim Johnson’s lucrative Fannie Mae tenure, as outlined in a federal report on the Fannie Mae scandal, a reader writes:
I was an auditor for Deloitte & Touche and I was on the Fannie Mae engagement which discovered the problems that required Fannie Mae to restate $11 billion. The one aspect of the engagement that I saw as a problem was that we were prohibited from investigating/re-auditing past the four year window which would have had us look further into Jim Johnson’s reign…[I was refused] when I tried to request some support for accounting entries that dated back to then. What also surprised me, I believe that Jim Johnson, Franklin Raines and Jamie Gorelick all got to keep the bonuses they received for a job well done. Fannie Mae’s $11 billion restatement made Enron’s $600 million restatement seem like petty cash.
They are both empty suits. Who is worse? I guess we deserve the leadership we get. If Americans were smarter, you two would be arguing about Ron Paul and Dennis Kucenich, they at least have the best interests of the American people as a concern.
Good God…..if you’re gonna plug a certified nutjob wacko like Kucinich, at least spell his name right.
I’m a Ron Paul fan, so you will have to excuse my spelling. Just pointing out that if I was a Democrat, and really believed in the whole wealth redistribution, Utopian, big government theme, I would vote for Kuc”i”nech. Why is he a “nutjob wacko”? because the corporate news media said so? They also said the same about Ron Paul. Not to worry McCain and Obama are ok, they have weeded out the wackos, without us even having to think about it.
ADD Txchick? 100 years.
I think we’ve identified at least one Hillary democrat who’s pissed that she lost.
Did the PPT just return from vacation? Or did all sectors of the U.S. economy suddenly and simultaneously see a shinier future?
Put buying opportunity.
At the risk of sparking a riot of denial, I feel compelled to point out that gold trading volumes are receding.
Philly unveils plan to fight home foreclosures
By Associated Press
4:39 AM EDT, June 5, 2008
PHILADELPHIA - Courts here will launch a pilot program next week requiring mediation between homeowners and lenders before foreclosure can occur.
The program is one part of a plan Mayor Michael Nutter unveiled Wednesday to address a nationwide mortgage crisis affecting many Philadelphia homeowners.
The city has already taken steps to address the problem, including delaying the sheriff’s sales for April and May to give the pilot program time to potentially keep people in their homes.
“It will give people an opportunity to be heard,” County Judge Annette M. Rizzo said of the program. “And, give them the opportunity to stay in their homes or gracefully exit.”
As part of the city’s foreclosure protection program, Nutter also launched a public service announcement to make people aware of a housing hot line. About 8,500 foreclosure filings are expected in Philadelphia this year, the mayor said.
The city will spend $2 million on the program for fiscal year 2009.”
This will work out well (sigh).
Ya just can’t make this stuff up, but I sure wish they would stop trying!
Idiots.
Leigh
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-ap-foreclosure-help-philadelphia,0,7316194.story
$2MM will help 20 people and employ 50 people. What a bunch of crap.
It’s very fitting that his surname is Nutter.
Stocks open higher on jobless claims.
Jobless claims the numbers are more manipulated the a Thai hooker.
One day soon it will all collapse.
I love how the market rallies over bad news, as long as it isn’t as bad as they were originally thinking. These kool-aid drinkers could find the silver lining even in a cloud of toxic waste.
..could find the silver lining even in a cloud of toxic waste.
Toxic waste disposal.. forget silver..that cloud has a golden lining studded with emeralds.
What’s 100% fabulous about that number is that there were only 4 days in the week for which those numbers are reported. Gee, you think adding 25% to the number might make a difference?
Woops should read “than a Thai hooker”
Capital Raises, Credit Problems Start Reaching Down: FLINT, Mich., June 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRBC) announced today that it has commenced concurrent offerings of common stock and contingent convertible perpetual non-cumulative preferred stock totaling $200 million. The common stock and preferred stock offerings are being conducted as separate public offerings and are not contingent upon each other. Citizens has granted the underwriters a 15% over-allotment option on each offering. The additional capital will enhance Citizens’ balance sheet and enable it to remain focused on executing its strategic objectives and delivering long-term shareholder value as current economic and credit conditions improve.
Webster Financial of Waterbury, Conn., said it will offer up to $250 million of convertible preferred stock.
WATERBURY, Conn., June 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Webster Financial Corporation (NYSE: WBS), the holding company for Webster Bank, N.A., announced today that it intends to offer 225,000 shares, or $225 million aggregate liquidation preference, of non-cumulative perpetual convertible preferred stock. Webster intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to $25 million of additional shares of the preferred stock to cover possible overallotments.
PFF Bancorp Proposes Up to $460 Million Private Placement Offering of Units, Consisting of Convertible Senior Secured Notes and Common Stock
(hey ho way to go Cucacamonga). RANCHO CUCAMONGA, Calif., June 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — PFF Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE: PFB, the “Company”), the holding company for PFF Bank & Trust (the “Bank”), Diversified Builder Services, Inc. and Glencrest Investment Advisors, Inc.,
Silver State Bancorp Announces an Offering of Transferable Stock Subscription Rights
Thursday June 5, 6:00 am ET
HENDERSON, Nev.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Silver State Bancorp (NASDAQ: SSBX - News) today announced that it has filed with the SEC a registration statement to raise up to $40 million of capital through the offering of transferable stock subscription rights to existing shareholders.
oops
Brother, could you spare a shitload of Dimes?
LOL,
That reminds me of that scene in Blazing Saddles
PFF is in big trouble out here. Former PFF customers are moving thier accounts over to the bank I work for (competes in the IE w/ PFF) like there is no tomorrow. The writing is on the wall for PFF, Temecula Valley Bank and Vineyard Bank. Negative press and banks don’t mix well, especially when you are a community bank without the Fed as a “last resort”.
Hey Hoz, who do you have your eye on in the financial services sector (short possibilities)?
I am still short money center banks in the US. There is no reason to cover. There is only one bank that I would feel uncomfortable shorting - Northern Trust. (That does not mean it is a buy,few US banks will be worth buying for years.) Future bank profits will not be close to profits for the 10 yrs prior to 2006 and PE ratios (when banks start earning moneys again) will come down to 8 - dividends should be around 7% on bank stocks. The long side risk is far greater than short side risk.
Do your research. What is right for me, myself and I is probably not suitable for any or all investors.
Target is closing down and laying off 134 employees at 1881 W. Lincoln Ave. in Anaheim and closing down and laying off 188 employees at 1000 East Imperial Hwy. in La Habra on July 22.
The corp’se doesn’t mess around when things aren’t going it’s way…
They don’t just lay off a few people, it’s more like wholesale slaughter.
I like the way United announced the mothballing of 20% of their fleet - but only 1,500 administrative layoffs. Anyone who thinks that sidelining 20% of a fleet that size will result in only 1,500 admin. layoffs is dreaming. The numbers the Continental announced this morning also don’t jibe.
Things are picking up speed and the MSM has to keep the spoonfuls small.
B-b-b-but Ben Bernanke said we’re not in a recession! The CPI says inflation is only 3.5%! Housing always goes up!
(Man, this is some good Kool-aid!)
Hoz, will they have layoffs in Encinitas, ca Target too?
–
The Latest Trend In Home Prices — The Good, the Bad & the Ugly
Annual Rate of Price Change For 2008-To-Date & Since July 2007 (As Per Radar Logic data)
Phoenix, AZ -33.7% -26.4%
Washing, DC -30.8% -14.2%
Detroit, MI -30.5% -17.7%
Miami, FL -28.1% -25.0%
Sacramento -27.5% -33.0%
Las Vegas -26.7% -30.8%
Tampa, FL -26.6% -24.2%
San Diego -25.6% -26.7%
San Fran, CA -24.7% -24.5%
Los Angeles -22.0% -26.5%
San Jose, CA -18.3% -16.8%
25 MSA Comp -15.0% -19.3%
Boston, MA -10.5% -21.3%
New York -7.6% -12.0%
Jacksonv, FL -2.5% -11.9%
Denver, CO 1.0% -15.6%
Philadelphia 1.9% -9.9%
Seattle, WA 2.0% -9.6%
Minneapolis 3.0% -12.1%
Columbus 3.0% -4.5%
Charlotte 5.1% -4.7%
Milwaukee 14.3% -11.2%
Cleveland 17.3% -11.1%
Atlanta, GA 23.9% -10.0%
Chicago, IL 24.4% -16.0%
As one can see, some areas do show recovery in 2008, thus far. 2007Q4 was by far the worst period for all areas, except DC, seeing double-digit Annual Rate decline.
Jas
The FT has a cute article in LEX about who might buy Lehmann.
The conclusion: The likely buyers are broke.
FT Lex
Lehman Brothers
Lehman has raised capital, improved its liquidity position, reduced leverage and gained access to the Federal Reserve’s primary dealer credit facility in the three months since Bear Stearns imploded. It is hard to see it going the way of its defunct rival. Not least, with the Fed dealer facility open, there is simply not the same incentive for counterparties to stop trading with the firm as they did with Bear. Yet Lehman is still being battered by events as investors speculate what horrors lie on the balance sheet and worry about its future earnings power. The fact that Lehman, like other Wall Street firms, is something of a black box from the outside only helps to sap confidence. At one point on Wednesday its shares had fallen 23 per cent in three days. The onus is clearly on Lehman to bolster its financial position to the point where the destabilising uncertainty is removed. That might well involve a capital injection from a third party – whether an investment management company or a foreign bank. But a sale of the firm should not be ruled out. …”
June 4, 2008
PORTFOLIO THEORY: THE UNNATURAL ALTERNATIVE
“…Indeed, John and Jane Doe can own the global capital markets portfolio at an expense ratio of under 50 basis points. What’s more, if they accept modern portfolio theory in strict form, John and Jane can build this portfolio by weighting the various asset classes by their market cap or equivalent weights. In that case, the overall portfolio is “efficient” and so requires no rebalancing going forward, which is to say that no further trading costs are involved. And if the portfolio is built with ETFs, the taxable distributions will be surprisingly low in any given year…”
http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2008/06/portfolio_theor.html#more
The portfolio I posted for fellow HBBs is based on Markowitz Portfolio Theory.
I actually have utilized that in some of the 401ks. You’re a good man, hoz.
–
“Markowitz Portfolio Theory” is one of the biggest BS, IMHO. No need to think! No need to worry about the price levels at which one buys!!
The theory takes care of it all and takes your cares away. Better than sugar candy if you believe the sales pitch of Wall Street. Many Nobel Prize winners in economics are part of the propaganda machine. Buyers (of the theories) beware!
Jas
Obviously you have never read any revisions to the theory. A theory developed 50 years ago is not valid, modifications made by many have improved the theory and are valid.
I would rather invest in a half ass Markowitz plan than in US Treasuries. US Treasuries are incredible risk.
–
I know when something, or some theory, is too good to be true. Efficient markets?! With irrational players?!!
Sorry, it is not for me. I am happy that it works for you.
Jas
Hoz,
Would you mind posting the portfolio again?
Thank you.
From S.F. East Bay:
Housing sector deteriorates (Contra Costa Times)
Under water. Upside down. Negative equity. No matter the terminology to describe the erosion of home equity in the East Bay, the conclusion is inescapable: A local housing sector that once was remarkable for how high it could soar has plunged into the depths.
About two out of three East Bay homes that were bought since 2005 are now worth less than the mortgages on the houses, according to a Zillow.com study. The research by Zillow, an online real estate service, portrays a fresh set of woes for a sinking residential real estate market.
Zillow’s survey determined that, on average, 59 percent of the houses bought in Alameda County in 2005, 2006, and 2007 now have negative equity. That means the amount of the mortgage exceeded the value of the house. In Contra Costa County, an average of 76 percent of the homes bought during those years now suffer from negative equity.
San Joaquin County and Solano County fared much worse. In San Joaquin, an average of 93 percent of the homes bought in the same three years are worth less than their mortgages. In Solano County, 85 percent of the homes bought during the 2005 through 2007 period are under water.
The housing market in the East Bay and adjacent communities looks much weaker than the nation as a whole. About 52 percent of the U.S. homes bought in 2006 now suffer from negative equity, Zillow reported.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/ci_9481684?nclick_check=1
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Commodities bulls have no use for history. After all, demand can only go up and up and up. What global depression? The US Fed and the Chinese govt would never allow a global depression. As to the supply, it could go down rather than up. For prices it is up, up and away. I am really scared with my long UST positions.
Jas
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10425.htm
June 04, 2008
Pivotal Events by Bob Hoye
SIGNS OF THE TIMES:
Last Year:
“Half the world is going through an industrial revolution compared to that of the U S in the 1890s. This will create demand for metal products like nothing the world has seen in the past century. We are just two years into a super-cycle of globalized demand. The underlying fundamentals are locked in.”
- Mitchell Hooke, Minerals Council Of Australia,
in the Turkish Press, June 5, 2007
This reminds of the certainties about soaring copper prices when the mania in stocks and commodities blew out. In 1873 The Economist dryly reported:
“By articles in newspapers, reviews and magazines all sorts and conditions of men were induced to interest themselves in copper. It was shown by figures and arguments, apparently conclusive, and presented with great ability . . . that the world’s [supply] of copper would be so much reduced that famine prices must prevail. The confidence in the future was strong enough to cause a further advance of 25 per cent, which was more than lost in the sequel, furnishing a fresh illustration of the rapid action of high prices in these days in bringing forward supplies from every quarter of the globe.” The emphasis was The Economist’s.
…
“I am really scared with my long UST positions.”
For somebody that constantly complains about how corrupt business is in America, I find it amusing that you have investments that completely contradict everything you stand for…
“…about how corrupt business is in America”
But that “corrupt business” is defended by the largest Nuclear Weapons stockpile & military technology that money can buy, and it can & will be used to “secure” it’s continued existence…Wall Street knows this…their motto: Bring it on: “Fat Boy” …They sleep well at night, even if Osama is still dusting the cassette recorder in his cave.
Osama is dead he’s been dead for quite some time probably just before 911, he’s nothing more then window dressing, the boogie man…..
Hey, that reminds me…what color “Homeland” alert are we on today?
Hey “Dickey Boy” Cheney, are you hanging out in the “Shadow Gov’t” pool lounge again? Put down that duck hunting magazine and go outside and raise the damn alert flag.
–
US businesses, especially Bankrupters and Fraudsters, are FAR MORE CORRUPT than the US Treasury. US Treasury has the best record in history!
Once the US is in Greater Depression for 2-3 years I would change my positions. Until then I will ride my luck (the best lucky streak of forecasting LT UST yields of anyone I know). It has worked for me for 17 years. I wish my record in other markets were half as good.
Jas
JJ:
Would you have voted for ’ssshrubery a 3rd time, if afforded the chance?
–
I ONLY voted once and recognized my mistake after three months. I readily admit to being a partisan dope at the time. Hey, I have made more mistakes than that, but unlike most people I am not bad at catching my own mistakes and correcting them whenever that is a choice.
Jas
So what’s your excuse for being a partisan deflationista dope, now?
–
You are shameless aren’t you?
Jas
I’m not the one that’s been pontificating the wrong course of action and is now unable to admit to being wrong, but you are.
–
You really are shameless.
Jas
It beats the heck out of being as shameful as you’ve been in describing our country as being akin to Nazi Germany, and now today you admit to being afraid of your investment in T-Bills.
Sometimes it’s hard to ascertain the value of irony, as rich as this…
–
You seem like a man scorned. As they used to say: Get a life! (Attacking someone constantly shows in your responses towards me; my criticism is a general criticism of the society, especially the leadership, as has been born out by the HB).
Jas
I wish you wouldn’t make it so very easy for me to mock you, but I wouldn’t waste a wish on that…
–
You seem to waste lot of your time and energy on me. let us see…
Did I ever question your investments, or your vote, or anything that is personal to you? You have a problem with me; that much must be clear to anyone here.
Get a life!
Jas
Jas, methinks maybe you’re a bit unaware of how deeply you can alienate someone by dissing their heritage and the facts of history. Just sayin’. I can’t liken the US to Nazi Germany, myself, especially their treatment of the Jews.
Moving my fingers around on the keyboard and forming words doesn’t take all that much effort, but if you want to flatter yourself and think i’m putting a lot of energy into it, that’s your prerogative…
“Jas, methinks maybe you’re a bit unaware of how deeply you can alienate someone by dissing their heritage and the facts of history.”
Hello Lost In Utah,
It is a baseless charge. My criticism is that of todays, or modern America, mostly the last 25 years. Furthermore, it is primarily criticism of those in power and the abuse of power. Yes, they have used the Propaganda Machine to brainwash people to achieve their ends. Any disagreement?
People need to learn to not take general criticism personally.
Jas
Most of the world no longer cares what happens in the US. China’s largest trade partner is not the US. If demand from the US drops 5% (which has not yet happened), China’s GDP drops 0.5%. Great so GDP goes from 11% to 10.5%. Japan was worried and their GDP is growing. The mere fact that iron ore price has gone up 65% to India and 100% increase to China and that the mines are running at full tilt in SA should give you pause in your bald statement about historical trends.
The data bases available to traders goes back hundreds of years. And with a click of the button, one can convert to any currency at the time of the trades. As long as you keep using “dollars” to price world trends, you are going to get skewed results.
The party is still on world wide and we aren’t invited.
“The party is still on world wide and we aren’t invited.”
6+ Billion people…how many will wind up with credit card debt?
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China will be in recession some time in 2009. As US experiences the Greater Depression, China and India will experience something close to the Great Depression for the US during 1930s.
It is the Speculation, Stupid!
Jas
Jas,
There is so much evidence that inflation is the concern. Stupid? maybe, but I am willing to change and act accordingly. You however will continue to invest in US Treasuries that yield 4% apr while I will make, with less risk, 13%apr in Brazilian Treasuries.
When you develop a better risk analysis program than what is currently available, I will certainly buy it. But if it includes selling out of the money Puts for time decay - count me out. Ditto if it includes buying out of the money puts eg GM $5 puts, count me out. There are easier ways to make moneys in the market with a lot less risk.
You have shown to be inflexible in your opinion even though mounting evidence shows the deflationist side is wrong for the next 18 months. China has problems, but not nearly as many as the US. China, as a dirigisme economy with its massive reserves, can maintain growth through 2010.
You really should look around the world more and see what is happening. There are $10T overseas that are looking for a home. Speculators are chump change compared to the current demand from around the world. Blaming speculation on contracts that expire every few months is silly. It is government thinking at its finest or worst. The contracts expire! The real demand is keeping prices high. The demand may be hoarding - in some metals I think this is the case, but in others it is usage.
Maybe deflation will occur, but I would not risk my savings on it. Oil will be at $158 by September, 2008.
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“Jas, You however will continue to invest in US Treasuries that yield 4% apr while I will make, with less risk, 13%apr in Brazilian Treasuries.”
Hello hoz,
What makes you think that I am only making “4% apr?” I have a large position in US STRIP in my IRA that is up 125% since I bought it in August 1997. However, I speculate by selling naked puts and as long as US yields don’t go up more than 1% per quarter I have a positive return and when they are sideways to lower I make 30-50% annual rate returns. Occasionally, I lose too (twice in the past 3 years) and take a loss to keep my risk level below a certain range. Please keep in mind that there are many ways to speculate.
Jas
You would have done better buying PIMCOs fund.
Selling naked puts has a Sharpe ratio of 0.2 - the only thing that can be said for it, is that naked put selling is a positive Sharpe ratio. I do not invest until the ratio is 1.25 or higher. I am extremely conservative.
A better play instead of selling puts would be to sell the swaps. More cash less risk Sharpe ratio of 0.9
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Sorry, hoz, with my luck I don’t need your advice on how to speculate on USTs. Gross changed his forecast of 3-4.5% to 4-6.5% for 10-Year just at the wrong time. I can stick to my guns while he can’t!
I have the conviction that inflation rate will cross the 1-5% (3% plus and minus 2% has been the “controlled inflation” regime of the Fed) range on the down side. We shall see in 6-9 months.
Jas
After 18 months -deflation - maybe, but inflation is baked in, rising to 8% over the next 16 months. The data is available, the same data that worries the Federal Reserve. It is not fake, it is the current raw material increase with profits added to the finished product. US consumers are paying the price increases. A very troublesome development. The profit margins are not contracting.
Hoz invests based on knowledge; it appears Jas invests depending on luck. Good luck to you, Jas.
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Talk about partisanship! I invest based on conviction and my conviction for the past 17 years has been that inflation will remain contained AND when it doesn’t it would be to the downside.
If one were to listen to inflationists my success in USTs has to be based on luck. Got it?
Jas
Georgia on my mind
Android Industries LLC is laying off 42 employees at 305 Best Friend Court in Norcross.
Ball Metal Food & Household Products is laying off 250 employees in Tallapoosa.
Bendix is laying off 95 employees in Elberton.
Chase Card Services is laying off 70 employees at 225 Chastain Commons NE in Kennesaw.
CIMA Plastics II Corp. is laying off 87 employees in Elberton.
City Of Atlanta is laying off 441 employees in Atlanta.
Georgia-Pacific Wood Products LLC is laying off 77 employees in Claxton.
Hunter Douglas (Alta Window Solution Specialists Inc.) is laying off 137 employees at 3032 Bankers Industrial Road in Doraville.
ITW Alma is laying off 29 employees at 8125 Cobb Centre Drive in Kennesaw.
Jevic Transportation is laying off 72 employees at 3934 Thurman Road in Conley.
Mohawk Industries Inc. is laying off 366 employees at 215 Pinetree Way in Dahlonega.
Paramont Grading is laying off 89 employees at 4405 Canton Hwy in Cumming.
Philips Electronics North America Corp. is laying off 86 employees in Atlanta.
Rexam Plastic Packaging is laying off 75 employees at 418 W. Lake Ave. in Rossville.
Sitel is laying off 120 employees at 1001 Davidson Drive, Suite 101, in Savannah.
Sony Entertainment is laying off 42 employees at 5152 Columbia Drive in Carrollton.
Value City is laying off 31 employees at 610 Holcomb Bridge Road in Roswell.
Vanity Fair Brands is laying off 30 employees at 3025 Windward Plaza in Alpharetta.
VWR International is laying off 40 employees at 1230 Kennestone Circle in Marietta.
Its a trickle of jobs. Retirements are a bigger issue than this.
Yet another reason why the so-called global warming/greenhouse gas “problem” is so ridiculous to anyone with common sense:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/2076607/Sheep-flatulence-inoculation-developed.html
A fire in a west Little Rock home. FYI, west LR is the ritzy area of town and Chenal Circle is the heart of the ritz. Huge (and very expensive) houses (by my standard anyway).
Contained.
U.S. Mortgage Malaise Deepens
“…while subprime adjustable-rate mortgages represent 6.0% of the loans outstanding, they represented the lion’s share, 39.0%, of the foreclosures started during the first quarter. Prime ARMs represent 15.0% of the loans outstanding and 23.0% of the foreclosures started.”
“The big trend was the jump in prime foreclosures from last quarter suggest that the subprime crisis has spread to more reputable paper.”
Remarks by Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
June 5 (Bloomberg) — Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said the lending to securities firms that the central bank introduced in March may lay the seeds of further financial crises.
“The danger is that the effect of the recent credit extension on the incentives of financial-market participants might induce greater risk taking,” Lacker said in a speech to the European Economics and Financial Centre in London. That “in turn could give rise to more frequent crises,” he said.
Lacker urged that the central bank now “clearly” set boundaries for its help to financial markets. In an interview yesterday on the themes of his speech, Lacker said even those new boundaries may not be believed by investors unless a financial firm fails “in a costly way.” …
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeBFOf_7tKPs&refer=home
Not often there is dissension in the ranks like this.
WASHINGTON, June 5 (Reuters) - Future U.S. bank failures linked to the downturn in the real estate market may include “institutions of greater size” than in the recent past, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Chairman Sheila Bair said on Thursday.
An increasing number of banks face high exposure to deteriorating conditions in commercial real estate and construction lending, Bair told a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the state of the banking industry.
“There is also the possibility that future failures could include institutions of greater size than we have seen in the recent past,” Bair said. “Uncertainties in today’s economic environment continue to pose significant challenges for the banking industry, households, and bank regulators.”
So far this year, four small U.S. banks with deposits insured by the FDIC have failed, up from three in 2007. The agency last week boosted its list of troubled banks to 90, which have a combined $26 billion in assets.
The FDIC, which has about $52.8 billion in its deposit insurance fund in the event of bank failures, has launched a review of its risk-assessment rates for larger banks to determine if they reflect current conditions, Bair said….”
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN0533667120080605?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
$52.8B that will cover a few losses. Hopefully your bank goes first so that you can claim yours.
Wow. Hoz how do we feel about new ETF: ACWI?
Markowitz like?
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a6sRmyO3RFao&refer=home
June 5 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said officials may raise interest rates next month to combat the fastest inflation in 16 years, sparking a surge in the euro and pushing bond yields to the highest level since 2001.
An anecdote from 94087
A house a few blocks away went up for sale at $1.89 million. At the very peak, I think the highest price I saw in this area was $1.3. This house looks out of place for the neighborhood. The previous “owners” tore down the existing house and built one that was about 2x the size of any other house in the area.
I predicted it would be on the market for at least a year, and not sell for anywhere near that price.
Well, two weeks after the house went on the market, a SOLD sign went up.
Now, guess what! Two weeks after the “SOLD” sign went up, the SOLD sign is down….and the house is on the market again.
I’m seeing if my nosey neighbors know the story.
(My prediction: The house, for all its size, won’t get more than a 5% premium over the other smaller houses in the area.)
BTW: I paid 300K for my now paid-up house in 94087. If prices here fall all the way back down to 300K, I’d be perfectly happy! I’d get my property tax lowered.
There’s a house on my street that was open today! (On a Wednesday…the R-E agents must have nothing to do.)
I didn’t know the people who lived there, but there were 30-somethings.
The house is now empty, except for staging furniture.
So either they moved first and worried about selling the house later (ha!) or they had to move under “duress”.
It’s priced at $999,000. The absolute peak on my block was $1.4 Million about 18 months ago. This is a block of 45-year-old 3 and 4 bedroom ranches, between 1500 sq-ft (my house!) and 2100 sq-ft for the 4 bedrooms.
So already, we’re having at least a 30% reduction in prices over last year. I think there’s another 30% coming to get the prices in line with 3.5x median salaries of silicon valley professionals. (Figure husband and wife making $125 and $75. So price should be no more than 700K max)
big rally o street of wall.
the 5 buck surge I am in awe.
foreclose my palace?
my money gone?
I say , pishaw.
the debt not mine.
to all, so long.
Im letting go three weeks…. night all.