Bits Bucket For June 7, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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DUE TO RECENT BUDGET CUTS,
AND THE RISING COST OF ELECTRICITY,
THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL HAS BEEN TURNED OFF.
WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
In California, the light at the of the tunnel is attached to a oncoming freight train…
Middle class going down for the count as California high gas prices, increases in taxes and service jobs being cut all taking there tolls. U hall business will be great for those lucky to be in it.
Ohio Report:
Gas prices falling in Northern Ohio this week end; stations near deserted, drove into one with two other cars ( a 12 pumper), paid 3.899. Half mile down the road it was 3.849. Went to the big mall south of Cleveland. Lots of teens (schools out), but noticed few carrying packages. Strange sales going on, mostly cheap imported stuff, few people buying, racks stuffed wall to wall with merchandise. Wm Sonoma empty, likewise V’s Secret. One JC Penny salesgirl for about half of the entire men’s dept. Walked right up, paid for my duds and was in and out in 5 minutes. So much for big 50% off Pre-Father’s Day sale.
The candidates are going to have to re-visit Ohio to pump up the citizens. Most everyone I’ve talked to has spent their stimulus on food, gas or due bills already. Nail place and oriental restaurant closed down in newer strip mall in our small town(built in last two years). Large, permanent-looking “FOR LEASE” signs sprouting in front of almost every commercial, office and retail location along the main highways. Looks like the recession I remember from the early eighties. That was a beauty; lost my job of 22 years, got divorced, nearly lost my house. Thanks to this blog and a few other sites I’m going to be just a popcorn munching observer to this one. Oh yeah, Zillow dropped my home value 3K this week( 202K down to 199K).
Repeat: Do NOT go to the light.
“But due to the laws of gravity and inertia the train coming straight at you is moving faster than ever. So kindly place your tray tables in the upright position. Fasten your seatbelts. Tuck your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye. Thank you for riding the Greenspan Express. We hope your next trip will be just as destructive.”
LOL
The oncoming freight train is going to scare the $hit out of the smug people of Marin county, California.
Keep the popcorn popping,
Red Baron
–
Nothing can scare the Marines!
Jas
Except other Marines.
Except falling home prices, love!
Water-Starved California Slows Development
“The water in our state is not sufficient to add more demand,” said Lester Snow, the director of the California Department of Water Resources. “And that now means that some large development can’t go forward. If we don’t make changes with water, we are going to have a major economic problem in this state.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/07/us/07drought.html?hp
Thank goodness somebody said it.
We can’t support more development, and we can’t support more **people** in CA. Not sure what to do about it, but something needs to be done.
All that needs to be done is to charge water users at marginal cost (i.e. cost of obtaining more water, not the cost of delivering existing water). Use the additional revenue to balance the state budget.
Result is California would have a sustainable population and economy with sustainable water supplies. Of course a lot of vested interests would take a big hit, primarily RE and agriculture, but that day of reckoning is coming anyway.
Agreed on charging for the true cost of water- especially in the case of agri users. But is this sufficient to balance the state budget?
Because the state of California is not necessarily soley responsible for the water supplies. Look also to the federal government and its works.
Californios talk about the premium they pay to live in their lovely state. That’s fine, but those living in other states shouldn’t be expected to subsidize that premium
Commie!
Rice hoarder!
Goat molester!
Hedge fund manager!
Fed Governor!
Non resident!
those living in other states shouldn’t be expected to subsidize that premium
i think it was about 10 years ago that Texas was declared a federal disaster area due to flooding and the next it was declared a federal disaster area due to a drought..
Troll!
Bleecker-holic!
Cross-dressing Realtor!
Park Sloper!
Puppy groper!
Knife-Catcher! (you bought in ‘08 HA HA HA!)
Greenspan Lover
Soothsayer
What’s wrong with groping puppies?
Yeah, you tell ‘em, Lionel!
Realtor (TM) !
What’s wrong with groping realtors?
Ewwww, nasty, Lionel. You don’t know where that realtor’s been.
One of my old classmates once saw me hold on to my keys by gripping one with my teeth. She immediately said it was disgusting because I didn’t know where it had been. Why on earth did she say that? I know more about where my keys have been than about almost anything else. It has always puzzled me. Did her keys usually go out and party or go clubbing without her? Maybe they had secret trists with realtors? That would be disgusting, but my keys were good keys. They wouldn’t do that to me. I’m sure of it.
Hahahaha! Funny.
Yes, I’m sure your keys were good, loyal, and virtuous keys. But her keys? I bet they were total sluts.
“Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting over” - Mark Twain
White Trash Bikini Party
Where?! Where?!
WITCH!!!!! BURN THE WITCH!!!!!!
David Lereah admirer
“Not sure what to do about it, but something needs to be done.”
Now that you and I are here, let’s ask the state gubmint to erect a high wall in order to keep further new entrants from coming in to collect free goodies, provided courtesy of the bleeding heart core liberal constituency.
I’ll do my part. I promise I will never, ever move to California. I may visit, but I’ll bring my own water with me if I do.
Not acceptable. You can only visit if you wear your stillsuit.
Dune, baby, Dune
I LOVE Dune! My sister Rachel and I have it about memorized. Every Christmas at the family spread we have a talent show and along with the ‘Free Form Criticism’ event and other displays of prowess, Rachel and I get up and re-enact our favored Dune scenes. The best one was 3 years ago when we captured Murphy–he’s a dog, a golden lab, a FAT golden lab–and dressed him up as the guild navigator and included him. It was…well, pretty amazing I guess covers it.
Dune!
You two are Dune Bugs.
‘Every Christmas at the family spread we have a talent show and along with the ‘Free Form Criticism’ event and other displays of prowess, Rachel and I get up and re-enact our favored Dune scenes.’
LMAO!
Like the Atlanta Olympics, I suppose which was declared to be “most unique ever”.
When they were building the third runway at SeaTac airport in Seattle (millions of dump truck loads wrecking nearby transportation arterials), the joke was they might cut your fair if you flew in smuggling a bag of dirt
After living in the OC for a couple of years, it’s apparent that many people like the tropical rain forest motif for their landscaping when xeriscape would be more appropriate. In my area of AZ the HOA’s mandate desert style landcaping and encourage xeriscape. CA might have to start doing the same thing for the already established neighborhoods.
“tropical rain forest motif for their landscaping”
That “theme” won’t work for a huge swath of $450,000 houses in the LA basin…does’t look right with graffiti & bullet holes.
“tropical rain forest motif for their landscaping
That “theme” won’t work for a huge swath of $450,000 houses in the LA basin…does’t look right with graffiti & bullet holes.”
Oh, come on. Think of it as a Brazilian motif…
http://www.roadjunky.com/article/1465/brazil-video-clips
(Favelas and Ghettos of Brasil)
Works in little Siagon.
” In my area of AZ the HOA’s mandate desert style landcaping and encourage xeriscape. CA might have to start doing the same thing for the already established neighborhoods”
Some older established upscale hoods in pasadena altadena, la cresenta, LAl Canada, which have been around for 70-100 years, have exellent xeriscape yards. I mean red lava rocks as ground cover, cactus & spiky desert needle shrubs, desert pines, ect. Takes an entire different mindset to concert your yard into a desertscape as most folks like cool leafy ferns, flowers & other water- gulping plants.
I’ve seen a few other homes with desertscapes out in palmcaster and other Scal desert exurbs, which would i think be almost a necessity as rainfall is scant anyway in the hi=-desert even in normal years.
“Not sure what to do about it, but something needs to be done.”
One thing that could be done is we (our government) could stop subsidizing families with too many kids. Talk about perverse incentives. This is built into so many things, most notably the tax code. How much did you get in your rebate check? Probably not as much as Hillbilly Jim with 6 kids. Makes no sense to me. We should be encouraging people to have fewer kids and focusing on educating those they do have.
I agree. In the very poor school where I work, the worst behaved kids come from “families” with single moms with five or six kids. The cost to our society for these deeply troubled kids, brought into this world not because anyone wanted them or planned to care for them, but to increase their mom’s welfare check, is staggering.
Unfortunately, I’m guessing that tax deductions aren’t on the mind of adults like that who have 6 kids. In fact, I’m not sure what’s on their minds.
In other words, erasing tax deductions isn’t going to be an incentive for those people to have fewer children although I do agree that those tax deductions should be eliminated.
Apparently, you are misled to believe that law is somehow related to some sort of omniscient perspective of what is “good and right”.
That’s not the case at all. Politicians sell resources (i.e. “tax revenues”) in exchange for votes.
There is NO intelligent life in California that requires water other than the animals and the little critters
Mikey, what state do you live in?
Great. Does this start the next water bubble where hedge funds and investors move out of oil and into water? What’s next after that? We don’t have enough oxygen?
“The rocketing price of wheat, soybeans, sugar, coffee - you name it - is a direct result of debt defaults that have caused financial panic in the west and encouraged investors to seek “stores of value”. These range from gold and oil at one end to corn, cocoa and cattle at the other; speculators are even placing bets on water prices.”
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2008/06/derivatives-market-is-unwinding.html
Debt defaults in financial markets have encouraged investors to turn to dependable assets: wheat, soybeans, sugar, coffee, gold, oil. Speculators are even placing bets on water prices.
A future big bubble; carbon credits.
The government can’t just put a tax on energy use, they have to create a system that can be gamed, bubbled and de-frauded.
In a few years they’ll call it a “free market” and add some government regulations to “fix” it. lol
.
Not a bad idea…. Oxygen calls… short oil.
A catastrophic water shortage could prove an even bigger threat to mankind this century than soaring food prices and the relentless exhaustion of energy reserves, according to a panel of global experts at the Goldman Sachs “Top Five Risks” conference.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/05/ccwater105.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
wow.. there’s such a thing as global experts.. i didnt know that.
Sierra Nevada snowfall during the winter before last was terrible. There was no talk of a drought.. reservoirs and lakes weren’t too low… California did ok.
This winter snow and rainfall was huge.. not record breaking but close.
But, since the ground was dried out from the prior dry year, a large portion of this year’s snow melt was absorbed into the ground. The result is low water supply running into the lakes.
Next year, if we get decent snowfall, there’ll likely be floods and mudslides since the ground is saturated. It’s a common pattern.
That’s not quite what happened, Joey. As climatologists had predicted, California snow pack was fine. However, the quickly warming temperatures–theorized to be caused by on-going climate change–melted the snow faster than normal. Thus, the snow pack did not melt into the water system over a lenthier period of time, it flooded it in a short period of time. Now, that water is gone, and we can’t expect it to rain again until late October at the earliest. Thus, we have drought conditions.
In short, if the climate change thesis proves true, the whole basis of California water will have to be re-constructed. The existing system is not designed for quickly melting snowpack snow.
And I live in CA, so I am concerned.
IAT
Goldman Sachs is creating some of these predictions with their new Ivy League grad analysts.
I notice that there’s is little-to-no mention in the MSM about how much water is required to grow the food that is used to make ethanol. What a goshawful expensive blunder. Every day I pass a gas station that is having tanks replaced. Has to be that they are installing ethanol-proof (no pun intended) tanks that probably will be unneeded when the light finally gets bright enough in the dim minds of Washington.
I heard that the efficiency of ethanol production was about 1.3, meaning they’re getting 1.3 times the energy put into it - BUT not counting water! LOL! I think maybe they don’t know how to figure out that part yet.
This was told to me by a couple conservative state legislators who figure they’re so straitjacketed by the ethanol-farm lobby that the only way out is to push for cellulosic biofuel in 10-12 years, meanwhile hoping people wake up to the ethanol boondoggle in the meantime. It has been politically unstoppable so far.
How about sending the illegals home? That should reduce the population by about half, and save billions of dollars a year.
I agree 2,000,000 people out of southern California would help me alot.
I second that.
There was a country where Bectel managed to gain control over water, and I believe it was illegal for citizens to get water from any other source, or something very silly. I believe it’s in the documentary “the corporation” but I could be wrong.
I don’t get it. Build a nuclear reactor not too far from the ocean, and use the excess heat from power generation to desalinate ocean water.
Matter can neither be created nor destroyed, no?
“The water in our state is not sufficient to add more demand,” said Lester Snow, the director of the California Department of Water Resources.
C’mon.. Les Snow.. Water resources.. You guys gotta be kiddin’ me..
LOL…
Mortgage distress shifts to Prime Borrowers
…And while the overall numbers for the first quarter show that the majority of troubled borrowers are in the subprime credit category, the pace at which prime borrowers are running into a wall now strongly outstrips anything being seen in the subprime arena.
All of this prime/subprime is mostly a buncha hoo-ey.
What matters, as it always has, is how much debt they took on in relation to their income.
Perhaps at the lowest end, and the highest end, you may need additional metrics but this basic metric should serve well for the vast middle.
Crazy MLS listings in Pullman, WA. For perspective, this is a town with 9000 permanent residents, median income of $50k, no real growth, and 90 minutes from the nearest metropolitan center (the thriving metropolis of Spokane). No bubble here, right?
Barclay Place, most expensive subdivision in Pullman, and not a single house has sold since the summer of ‘07. They are finally resorting to MLS listing. A $769k spec home in Pullman. Hinrichs and Hinrichs get the real men of genius award for this bright idea.
http://windermere.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Listing.ListingDetail&ListingID=33595241
A $735k home on a couple acres that’s been lived in for less than a year. Must be the heating bills, huh?
http://windermere.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=listing.listingDetail&ListingID=19468818
A $660k monstrosity with a wonderful faux brick facade. It has only been vacant and on the market for 15 months… after just one year of occupancy. No shortage of slightly used dream homes in Pullman.
http://windermere.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=listing.listingDetail&ListingID=18614826
And my favorite spec home.
“There is an allure & satisfaction that only a country home can provide. A beautiful country setting invigorates and rejuvenates the spirit. A country home is a haven, a place to reconnect with nature, with family & with yourself.”
Funny that they don’t mention the allure of the invigorating JUNK YARD right across the street!
http://windermere.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=listing.listingDetail&ListingID=19649987
This last listing has been FSBO, craigslist, MLS, for rent, internet auction (no bids), and now back on the MLS. How many weeks left before this becomes a REO.
And speaking of REO’s, here is our first:
http://windermere.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=listing.listingDetail&ListingID=18945340
Started at $650k, dropped to $390k slowly over the last year, went pending for a few weeks then active again as the buyer couldn’t get financing. Wells Fargo is trying to unload this puppy.
Geez. Somehow I found myself on some realtor’s website that contained listings for Roseburg, OR. (I think vozworth lives there)
I couldn’t believe how many $500K+ homes were on there. The only thing Roseburg is close to is other small Oregon towns run over by CA equity refugees. There is NOTHING there and no reason houses should cost more than, and this is stretching it to play devil’s advocate, $300K.
Any dead pool being started on 08 prez elections?
June 7, 2008, 6:00 am
Political Wisdom: President Obama? Place Your Bets.
Here’s a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:
by Sara Murray and Gerald F. Seib
0607perceptions_art_400_20080606174445.jpg
Barack Obama speaks during a rally at Nissan Pavilion, Thursday in Bristow, Va. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
The reality of Sen. Barack Obama’s candidacy is that it’s a “gamble,” writes National Journal’s Ronald Brownstein. “Obama almost certainly presents Democrats with a better chance to redraw the electoral map and expand their coalition if all goes well. But, in a year so tilted toward Democrats, Clinton might have represented a safer bet to accumulate the bare minimum of 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House,” Brownstein writes.
http://blogs.wsj.com/politicalperceptions/2008/06/07/political-wisdom-president-obama-place-your-bets/trackback/%20%20%7c/
oh stop with the reality check already
LC,
How’s it going?
I fail to see how the “most” liberal member of the Senate is going to expand their coalition past one election. “If” he we wins, at the end of his first term this fiscal/housing fiasco is just going to be leveling off and maybe improving. We’ll all be ready “For Change” again. Of course I think the same can be said for a McCain election.
IMO, the main difference is if McCain wins, conservatives loose in the long run because they’ll be blamed for everything. (Note McCain is not conservative in a true conservative’s way of thinking.) If Obama wins, the Dems could get much of the blame.
Lip
PS: Went to a luncheon where the subject was “Nanotechnology and Safety” on Friday and the gist of the message was that chemicals have different properties on the nano size and the exposures to the human body are mostly unknown. Very interesting stuff for safety geeks.
Lip, things going fine,
Life is a crapshot, put your money down and take your chances. We all do this everyday, whether we know it or not.
The future is unpredictable. Everyone is guessing, rewiew mirror stuff.
Hope things are going well with you’all (from my days in Houston, San Antonio and Dallas, TX).
Lip, are you following AIG-
All is not going to end well for the insurance industry!!!
LC,
Yes, but not to the extent that I know what they’ve done.
I assume they sunk their money into the financial instruments that come from the housing industry. My company is “much more” conservative in that respect and I think our exposures are limited, as least as far as they tell us.
So yes, I agree that things aren’t going well in the insurance industry right now, there are some companies that will do better than others, and I think mine will continue to operate for another 200 yrs. Rumors say we’re looking to invest in another company but you didn’t hear it from me.
Spent last weekend in the OC and had a wonderful time on Balboa, Huntington Beach, and Yorba Linda. We just love SoCal and hope to hit San Diego later in the summer.
To Zonies, the June gloom is great because we never get cloud cover of any kind.
Lip
Best of luck! for what its worth!
We all have a rough “slog” ahead!
Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton, Barack
Obama, and John Mc Cain were flying to a debate.
Barack looked at Hillary, Chuckled and said, ‘You
know I could throw a $1,000 bill out of the window
right now and make somebody very happy.’
Hillary shrugged her shoulders and replied, ‘I could
throw ten $100 bills out of the window and make ten
people very happy.’
John added, ‘That being the case, I could throw one
hundred $10 bills out of the window and make a
hundred people very happy.’
Hearing their exchange, the pilot rolled his eyes
and said to his copilot, ‘Such big-shots back there.
I could throw all three of them out of the window
and make 300 million people very happy.’
I am sorry, I am laughing so hard, that I am speechless!!!
Let the Blood-letting begin!
Real-Estate Woes of Banks Mount
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
June 6, 2008; Page A1
We’ve seen a real change in the market,” says Ricardo Chance, a managing director at KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, who is helping troubled builders restructure their businesses. “Finally the banks are capitulating and saying, ‘Let’s mark to market and flush this all out.’ The market is going to get worse. We don’t want to hold on to this stuff.”
How do you mark to market when you don’t know what the market is (i.e., where is the bottom)?
“mark to market” is an accounting term.
Lets say we all own some similar thing but nobody wants to sell it. How much is that thing worth? We dont really know. Nobody knows. We have a rough estimate from what we paid for it, but things have changed. How much is it really worth now?
One of us needs cash, gets desperate and sells. There is now a price on that thing. The market has set a price.
Next, we all must go back to our bookkeeping. That item’s value has to be ‘marked to market’ on the books.. a genuine dollar value has to be placed next to it.
The result might be that our total assets and our businesses are worth less that we thought. This might upset some people to whom we owe money. There could be all sorts of neagtive consequences.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_to_market
“How do you mark to market when you don’t know what the market is (i.e., where is the bottom)?”
The Court House steps, eBay and the Stock Exchange(s) determine true market value.
“The health of the economy is dependent on the willingness of the banks and other financial institutions to lend to consumers and businesses. Many banks have already taken substantial losses, and either will have to pare their lending or raise new capital to rebuild their safety nets.”
And as the collateral in the form of real estate continues to decline in value banks holding such collaterial will continuously need to curtail lending and raise new capital.
These actions will translate to less money flowing into the economy which will cause existing money to be hoarded by those who possess it thus making it more scarce and thus more valuable.
Another point for the deflationistas.
“The health of the economy is dependent on the willingness of the banks and other financial institutions to lend to consumers and businesses.”
F-cking complete and utter bull$hit. How stupid are these motherf’ers? The strength of the economy is dependent on the willingness and ability of the borrowers to pay back the money they’ve been lent. These f’ers are so a$$-backwards that it makes my balls my hurt just reading or listening to their stupidity. By this logic the economy was a miraculous creation in 2003 - 2006. How’s that working out? My brain hurts. It looks like it will be 95 degrees in New York City. My skin will be frying and my liver will be crying.
Credit goes way beyond shaky lending to flippers, FBs and speculators.
The whole country runs on the principle of keeping the money constantly flowing. Credit is involved in almost every transaction. Nothing happens without credit.
A gas station doesn’t produce $50,000 in cash or write a check to refill their tanks every few days. A grocery store doesn’t save up money so it can buy meat, milk and bread for tomorrow. This stuff is all dependent on easily available credit.
If banks cannot or will not extend it, there’ll be no gasoline and no milk available.. no sales, no paychecks and no jobs.
We’ll suffer according to the degree that credit is restricted.
“The strength of the economy is dependent on the willingness and ability of the borrowers to pay back the money they’ve been lent.”
The strength of the banking sector is dependent on the willingness and ability of lenders to make loans which the borrowers will be able to repay.
My balls hurt too.
I mean, my eyeballs hurt from reading ben’s blog.
Well, NYCityboy, look on the bright side–at least you’ve kept your positive attitude. Awright, then!
You are right combo. Every huge developer I know is struggling to make collateral calls based on the declining value of their pledged mortgage backed securities. I dont know any focusing on business, just trying to avoid insolvency at this point. Expect some big names to be mentioned in the news in the next few months.
I picked up 5 smaller banks as clients getting into the derivative and credit markets now. Cash is definitely king. As I told you guys before, this was all planned. Those moving to the companies with good balance sheets are those that made a killing at investment banks during the boom. To think that the downturn will hurt the brain trusts dont understand how it works from behind the curtain. This is an artform.
The WSJ senses the cognitive dissonance, but can’t quite put their finger on what exactly is happening: The surprisingly gloomy outlook [for banks] is at odds with the sentiment of investors,
… almost as if the investor sentiment is wrong.
Auction-Rate Investors Can’t Have Their Money Back…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aAH2ChDscVkA&refer=bond
This is the issue
By allowing customers to sell at a discount, the banks allow customers to establish damages,” said Bryan Lantagne, the securities division director for Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin. Lantagne is head of a task force for nine states looking at whether brokers misrepresented the debt as an alternative to money-market investments.
Investor Lawsuits
At least 24 proposed class action suits have been filed since mid-March against brokerages over claims investors were told the securities were almost as liquid as cash.
People might complain about lawsuits but I think it’s great that Americans are freely able to sue for just about anything. I currently have a legal action pending against my wife. The other day it was my birthday. And once again she gave me a new shirt and a piece of beaver. And once again they were both too big. So I am finally doing something about it. Since she has been so unresponsive to past complaints maybe my team of Goldberg, Stein and Finkel can get her attention. God bless America!
I’m speechless. I hope she never reads that.
She might be contacting you for legal advice.
I believe I am the first on this blog that made the Chick speechless. I am the champion!
Methinks you’ve been too long in NYC, boy.
When are you going to confront Sancho, and tell him to stop wearing you shirts?
You have to stop hanging out with that Wall Street crowd, as it is beginning to corrupt your sense of decency.
I work hard, treat my wife well, don’t cheat people out of anything and once in a while try to make others laugh. I think I’m doing okay.
NYCityBody…this is the NYPD.
Put the liquor bottle down and step AWAY from the computer. Now. Turn on your A/C and drink some water.
Could be that you’re too small.
NYCB, have you ever thought about why/how the beav’ has gotten too big?
I don’t like to mess with nature’s mysteries.
Worried about The Beaver
Does she overcompensate by driving a Porsche?
She also let you take your balls out of her purse so you and the cats could play with them and have a festive birthday party type of game. That should count for something. Maybe you could ratchet back the demand for compensation just a wee bit, keeping that in mind.
At least 24 proposed class action suits have been filed since mid-March against brokerages over claims investors were told the ’securities were almost as liquid as cash’.
It reads they were ‘told’… From a law suit stand point wouldn’t you want that claim in writing or is a verbal claim strong enough?
Securities dealers have specific statutory obligations regarding the claims they can make about the performance of products they sell. I’m pretty sure this applies to oral claims. They problem, of course, is proving that they said it.
Realtors, on the other hand,don’t. Like any other salesperson, of course, they are required to truthfully represent the material condition of the product they are selling. But they can lay on pretty much any hype they want.
I’m sure there was a prospectus for these accounts.
A lot if not all of those conversations are recorded if they are on the phone.
Is anyone going to sue those used-house salespeople for telling FBs that “real estate always goes up” and those mortgage brokers who told them “you can always refinance later”?
Lawsuits for everyone!
“Is anyone going to sue those used-house salespeople for telling FBs that “real estate always goes up” and those mortgage brokers who told them “you can always refinance later”?”
I hope this does happen, even if they don’t win. I’d like to see a some lawsuits by people that were just trying to buy a house, not get rich quick, not HELOC for toys, etc. How special would it be to see Realtors on the stand explaining that their claims were no more binding than those of used car salespeople.
People are pissed with declining home values, rising oil, and rising food. The government is going to try and get involved but will they? Most likely after Bush but won’t they just make an already bad situation even worse?
What benefit is there in keeping people in their homes who can’t afford it? It’s a bailout for the banks if you ask me.
Study Calls for ‘Energy Revolution’
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: June 6, 2008
The world needs to invest $45 trillion in energy in coming decades, build some 1,400 nuclear power plants and vastly expand wind power in order to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to an energy study released Friday.
…Assuming an average 3.3 percent global economic growth over the 2010-2050 period, governments and the private sector would have to make additional investments of $45 trillion in energy, or 1.1 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, the report said.
That would be an investment more than three times the current size of the entire U.S. economy.
It’s an old, stale sales technique but it works.. Ask for a lot more than you ever hope to get. $45 trillion makes $2 trillion sound like pocket change.
‘The world needs to invest $45 trillion in energy in coming decades, build some 1,400 nuclear power plants’.
Germany is doing their part, except they have slated to build 47 ‘coal’ fired electric plants. We have enough coal to run for around 300 years, or so say the experts. Funny thing is China (the foulest country around) has to import their coal because they can’t keep up with demand. Also they are building an additional 1200 coal fired plants! Take that Al Gore!
300 years is at our current burn rate. It’ll be much shorter as we sell our coal to other countries. We’ll also have to displace a lot of people to dig up that coal. My guess is we have 50-100 years of reasonable coal supply.
“We’ll also have to displace a lot of people to dig up that coal” Where in the ass end of UTAH. If I remember right Bill Clinton made the largest coal supply in the nation off limits to use. The echo freak lobby have screwed us. If they are worried that we will destroy the environment, fine the company that spills oil 50% of their gross. Let then drill let them mine just fine the shit out of them if they f-up and prison time for the managment.
What’s an ‘echo freak’? Isn’t that some sort of obscure club with members who travel obsessively in order to hear sound reflections? Do they argue over the quality of various reverberations? What do THOSE weirdos have to do with coal?
I believe it is true that B.C. fenced off a huge amount of coal out west. Was that was about the time the non-U.S. Lippo Group’s Riady family was mentioned as having a very cozy relationship with the prez? Per Wikipedia, concerning Mochtar Riady, the head of Lippo, “He has made substantial donations to the DNC.” Lippo was big into energy.
I do not know if Mr. Riady had US citizenship or a green card. Hopefully he had one or the other, because I think it is despicable if contributions to a U.S. political campaign or party by a foreigner or foreign entity are or were allowable.
That coal was in the Kaiparowits and the lease was owned by a foreign (Dutch) company. Clinton effectively shut them down and if we ever need the coal for ourselves, it is now in reserve. Don’t kid yourself, national monument status won’t stand in the way if this country badly needs the reserves there.
But, lest you forget, the US has immense reserves of coal underlying a huge area of W. Colorado and central Utah, none of which is under any kind of preservation status.
echo freak = eco freak = peace toad = treehugger = birkenstock butt buddy = granola boy = liberal (gasp!!!)
“300 years is at our current burn rate. It’ll be much shorter as we sell our coal to other countries. We’ll also have to displace a lot of people to dig up that coal. My guess is we have 50-100 years of reasonable coal supply.”
From the July 2008 Trains Magazine, we are currently having an export coal boom. Earlier booms peaked in the early 80’s and early 90’s followed by a decline to historic lows in 2006. Europe and Asia are currently big buyers. “Conservative” estimates are this boom might last 2 to 4 years for steam coal and 5 to 7 for metallurgical.
Wonderful, yet another outrageous sum of money, like those projections about S.S. and Medicare, for the pols to fret about and contort to suit their self-serving needs.
What we need to do is DRILL.
The logic the congress and “environmentalists” use is wrong. What are we “preserving” ANWR for? Do the Elk vote? (I bet they taste great though!)
We Americans set the bar high for ourselves. OSHA for our workers, clean air from our cars. Things like that. It’s good. But when others don’t do the same (China, India) we refuse to adapt to deal with them.
Analogous to drilling for oil If you’re a kid digging for rocks in your back yard, you don’t pine “There’s no more rocks here!” You pick another spot and start digging there. Don’t sit on the floor and cry “we’ve run out of rocks!”
China will drill for oil anywhere they can. We have oil and we won’t tap it. (Bakken deposits, ANWR, Florida and Cali coasts, Gulf of Mexico) Perhaps when the entire American economic system collapses and there’s a Chinese/Russian invasion, they will happily recover all the natural resources in North America. Maybe they’ll even hire a few of us to work the rigs!
How is $45 trillion going to solve global warming? Think of all the trees they will have to chop down to print $45 trillion in cash.
High oil prices will cease any man-made cause of global warming. However, natural causes of global warming will be too much to overcome. My own view is “why worry, why bother?” Man should live qua man - create, produce, grow, live life to its fullest. And don’t worry about the endangered snail darter. After all, we are part of nature. Save mankind first. Then consider saving nature.
Earth has a 26000 year precession, in which ice ages and warm ages occur. Google it. I learned about this in a meteorology class. Nothing can stop that.
Also earth has gone through and could go through periods of massive volcano eruptions which could cause a severe climate change. It could put 100s of thousands times the amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than man can with the internal combustion engine.
I’m for a massive building of nuclear energy, wind power, and solar power, not really as a response to this global warming silliness, but for energy independence.
“I’m for a massive building of nuclear energy, wind power, and solar power, not really as a response to this global warming silliness, but for energy independence.”
Why can’t we have both? Oil gives us neither of those things, and it isn’t renewable.
OK, Bill, but let’s put that big nuclear generator and its waste in YOUR backyard.
Yeah, storage of waste never seems to enter the pro-nuclear argument. “But it’s clean” is what I always hear and we can just stash it under a mountain far, far away from me.
Sure, you can pick any back yard of mine. I own no land. The waste is properly buried in salt mines. Yes, I took a Geology class too. If you google “salt mines,” you will find why those are the safest places for nuke waste. Not sure if blasting it into the sun is going to be economically feasible unless the much talked about (among nerds) space elevator is produced.
A good discussion on Naked Short Selling on the Financial Sense newshour today (3rd hour under “crime of the century”). I wasn’t aware of the level of fraud and manipulation that is pervasive on Wall Street in this regard. Certainly worth the time to listen.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
i d/loaded the mp3 ..
After skipping through it, this seems to be a narrative by John O’Quinn .. famed trial lawyer who’s won $$multi-billions from deep pockets like Dow Corning (breast implants) and tobacco co.s .. and has pending cases against stock brokers and hedge funds.
Before i spend an hour listening to it, can you assure me he’s not presenting a biased opinion (yeah right) , or that his opinion is balanced by someone representing the brokers?
he’s suing DTC on behalf of some scuzzy company or companies whose stock should have been short sold to zero
Where were the Plunge Protection Team yesterday? At their annual convention with the 9/11 conspiracy people and the moon landing hoax folks, I guess.
That’s the only logical explanation anyway.
Why is that the only logical explanation? How about this one: They are almost out of ammunition now.
We consumers get crusified and the only news is Hillbama.
Why would Israel announce they are going to attack Iran?
Shouldn’t they just do it?
I fairly sure they were at their new messiahs pep rally &fainting session. His latest prophetic line is… ‘We live in the United States Of America, the greatest Country in the world, now join me so we can change it’.
Not to worry the PPT will be back on the job Monday morning, with oil near $140.00 it’s nothing but good news.
I think they were assigned to raise the oceans an inch.
Don’t be so casual, Chick. In some situations an inch can make all the difference.
Yup too small.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NzUyM2EzMjVmNDAxNzVjZTYyYzE5YzI1OWJjZTc0OGM=
Don’t go believing a word those cats tell you. They lie.
“The short version of the Democratic-party primary campaign is that the media fell in love with Barack Obama but the Democratic electorate declined to. “I felt this thrill going up my leg,” said MSNBC’s Chris Matthews after one of the senator’s speeches. “I mean, I don’t have that too often.” Au contraire, Chris and the rest of the gang seem to be getting the old tingle up the thigh hairs on a nightly basis.”
The hip and edgy media leftists have a long history of elevating their political darlings to god-like status. The hip and edgy media, each in their own day, just couldn’t gush enough praise for Joseph Stalin, Fidel Castro, Ho Chi Minh, Daniel Ortega, Hugo Chavez, etc., etc.
The hip and edgy media leftists like Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews are always going to omit pesky little facts, such as that Obama’s contributions to the nation at this point, are hot air, demogoguery, and supporting ex-Weather Underground leaders and racist preachers. What matters most to the elite media left is always blaming America first and foremost for whatever ills they perceive the world is enduring.
These days, the ever popular ‘Post hoc, ergo propter hoc’ argument against all things “Bush” is the rage. According to the leftist media, any bad thing happening today, must be because of Bush. The economy sucks because of Bush. The environment sucks because of Bush. The educational system sucks because of Bush. Gasoline is over $4 because of Bush. “Post hoc ergo propter hoc”‘ - “After Bush, therefore BECAUSE of Bush”.
I wonder why the installation of the Democratic controlled Congress two years ago isn’t to blame. I wonder why Pelosi, Boxer, Clinton, Gore, Carter, Kennedy and 40 years of Democrat controlled Congresses post WWII aren’t to blame. Could it be, because it patently serves the money men who actually control this country, to perpetuate the two-party system gridlock, to continue to divide and polarize the electorate with hints and promises of “change”?
The hip and edgy media leftists like Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews
What an absurd piece of claptrap.
Anyone who thinks Chris Matthews is “hip”, “edgy”, or “leftist” is either A.) suffering from heatstroke, or B.) an oxycontin addict.
Wow, oh wow Mormon Tea,
Are you finally saying Clinton is no longer to blame for everything that has gone wrong for the past eight years?
Mormon Tea it isn’t the leftist media, it’s the facts that have put your man down.
1. The economy sucks because of Bush.
- Dick Cheney “Deficits don’t matter” well apparently they do.
- No regulation of banking, in fact GW and co. went after states that tried to regulate preditory lending and securitization.
- Dependence on oil see below.
-
2. The environment sucks because of Bush.
- Correct this one can be handed to the majority of people around the globe. Bush is just one of the worst.
3. The educational system sucks because of Bush.
Not too many republicans even support no child left behind plan.
4. Gasoline is over $4 because of Bush.
- War in Iraq took Iraqi oil off line
- War in Iraq consumes large amounts of oil
- Absolutely no energy plan - Our own gov says ANWR would reduce the price of oil by less than a buck a barrel. There is no way we can produce our way out of this but conservation could cut US consumption by 20-30% easy. A carbon tax after 9/11 with the procedes used to reduce income taxes or payroll taxes or for tax credits would have worked. Nothing was done we were told to go shopping.
wmbz, why the endless carping about Obama? I’m pretty sure I know the reason, but why don’t you just state it openly?
Your hero (George W.) had 8 years to wreck the economy, but apparently that wasn’t long enough for you. If we elect McSame, we can have a war with Iran, Afghanistan, and Iraq to throw away young lives needlessly in addition to bankrupting the country so that your grandkids can become debt slaves…but you’ll still get your precious tax
bribebreak so who cares, right?You must really, really hate your children…
Gosh, NSO, why don’t you tell us how you really feel.
Do you really think any administration can abolish economic cycles? They can only hope to moderate them.
The coming Obama presidency will make Jimmy Carter’s seem well-run by comparison. And at least Carter wasn’t an elitist.
LOL. You’ve swallowed the propaganda and need to induce vomiting immediately.
“You’ve swallowed the propaganda and need to induce vomiting immediately.”
Speaking of vomit inducing propaganda.
Is Obama an enlightened being?
Spiritual wise ones say: This sure ain’t no ordinary politician. You buying it?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2008/06/06/notes060608.DTL
“The coming Obama presidency will make Jimmy Carter’s seem well-run by comparison.”
I’m interested in this assumption. The Obama campaign was distinguished by an amazing organizational ability…they deployed their grass-roots forces in states where they were presumed to have little chance…in Iowa for a start, and upset the Clinton machine. Their campaign has been disciplined in raising cash and spending it…no going broke or relying on a candidate to “lend” their campaign cash, a la Clinton or McCain. The Obama campaign’s managers have all been there thru the campaign…unlike the embarassing departures for McCain when lobbying conflicts forced some of his closest advisors to depart or Clinton, who faced upheaval in her badly managed campaign.
You may not like the guy, but he ran a tightly managed and disciplined campaign team…unlike Clinton or McCain.
And she said, ‘Oh, damn. Where did you come from? I’m white. I’m entitled. There’s a black man stealing my show.”
NoSingleOne,
How about these reasons. He has absolutely no experience. He’s an extreme left wing liberal socialist. He, his wife, and many of their friends and associates are racist bigots. Is that enough?
Yes, Bush sucks, McCain sucks, Clinton sucks, and Obama sucks. We’re screwed.
NoSingleOne: Obama will take the US into Iran just as fast as McCain. Obama will not draw down the troops that were initially planned to be placed by Clinton, not by Bush. Obama will do nothing to strike down future extensions of the PATRIOT Act, and he will likely involve us in Darfur in addition to Iran.
As Justin Raimondo said yesterday, anyone who believed Obama was anti-war should apologize to those they told it to. The link is at http://antiwar.com/print/?articleid=12944 check it out. Quote:
“I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything in my power. Everything.” Barack Obama.
Now he’s also backing down from open relations with Cuba (the same type of open relations and market economics that helped to dispel the Soviety “threat.”)
Obama will be more of the same, plus even more still. McCain is no better, but at least his war drums are loud enough to hear, rather than Obama’s war drums which were quiet for a long while, but are getting louder every day.
“War is the health of the State.”
tsk tsk, more reality
party poop
I wouldn’t worry as he speaks dove in Oregon and hawk in Montana.
A smart politician never says never.
I don’t think Obama would never get us into a war, but I think he will get us into the right war at the right time, if needed. Not because he’s necessarily some messiah or some genius, but because his priorities are more domestic.
Iraq was never justified. Everyone apparently saw that except POTUS, who “fixed” the intelligence around the mission (ever hear of the Downing St. Memo?). We fought a war for oil and to defeat terrorists, and now it is $140/barrel and bin Laden is putting out a new video every week.
Who’s really winning here?
A smart president would get the UN involved and make sure his intelligence is correct and correlates with that of his allies before starting a potentially disastrous war. “Cowboy diplomacy” doesn’t work, alienates our allies, and is ethically unjust to boot.
” I’m pretty sure I know the reason, but why don’t you just state it openly?”
Well if we are talking so “plainly” then by all means state when you mean and don’t play word games.
Yes, thanks for backing me up, Ernest.
wmbz, stop playing word games and say what you mean!
Well, said. I am seeing folks wringing their hands over Obama w/o actually saying the REAL reason, or one (Mike from FL) who actually said that he was not a racist but…
Considering what we have endured for the past eight years, considering that Bush was clearly NOT qualified, considering all the criminal enterprises that Rove and his associates hatched in the name of national security, the constant hand-wringing over Obama is hardly justified.
Flame away!
Every time oil bubbles to a higher price level, it has that much further to fall in order to restore fundamental value. The ride back down should be good for Uncle Buck, though J6P will be fully toasted, fried and chewed by the time the oil price bubble is fully deflated.
When salespeople start using fear as their main pitch, it’s bubble time.
This a.m. opened an e-mail from local car dealer shilling their hybrid vehicles…DON’T WAIT FOR GAS TO HIT $5/gallon! ORDER YOUR 2009 HYBRID NOW…
(buy now or be priced out forever?)
I heard a commercial this morning (was on TV) by one of the major oil companies… touting the local ownership of their gas station franchises and how much they help the local economy with jobs.
I laughed.
With gas having advanced more than $0.50/gal higher in a just a few weeks… perhaps this signals the beginning of Big Oil’s public CYA strategy.
*****
And yesterday, I drove from deep in SOMA in SF to the intersection of Geary and Park Presidio in about 10 minutes.
All on surface streets, at 5 pm on a Friday, no less.
There was “no one” out driving around. I had green lights for all but one the whole way out there.
Astonishing.
“There was “no one” out driving around. I had green lights for all but one the whole way out there.”
Critical Mass had all the cars trapped on the other side of town?
‘We live in the United States Of America, the greatest Country in the world, now join me so we can change it’
Oh for pete’s sake, you don’t even have to have the full context to know what he means. I thought people on this board were smarter than to allow Rush to convince you that this is scandalous, a slip of tongue, or whatever. Grow up!
Analogous to Kerry’s “I voted for before against” comment although on a much lesser level.
If you can’t understand what he’s saying, your rights as a voter should be revoked.
OMFG, the curse of Snaith struck. I had bad Key Lime Pie last night and it damn near killed me.
See, I spent the day making fun of Snaith the foodie and pleading with Ben for the barf .gif. Behold, I barfed on the whim of the Chow Gods.
A cautionary tale for all whom post in these cursed threads. Ye enter at ye own risk.
‘Behold, I barfed on the whim of the Chow Gods.’
Oh, yeah, THOSE guys. They can be real jerks.
Hey California! Don’t eat the Mexican Bathtub Cheese… TB on the rise!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24954041/
War famine and disease = population control for those that don’t believe in birth control.
I live on lattes and Power Bars, would never touch that stuff!
Finally, Newsday (Long Island, New York) writes a story.
LI May home prices fall 10% over ‘07; Queens down 15%
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzhous0607,0,1745106.story
Newsday stopped reporting monthly median sales prices many months ago.
On reflection, I’m not complaining too much. Those reports were rather boring with no analysis. Now, the 10% drop story stands out better after the long drought.
The disconnect in Fantasyland is so great right now that it is almost mind boggling. I am on the subway last night and I hear two guys talking next to me about how real estate is so dead. I was in Long Island on Memorial Day and people were talking about real estate being in such a slump. I have FBs around me that finally understand that their real estate ain’t what it used to be. The attitude is very glum for many people in this City.
Then you read a fluff article or hear some retards talk about a great time to buy. They talk about Manhattan staying strong and Brooklyn being the next Manhattan. A co-worker told me yesterday how strong Brooklyn is. I told her to just wait. They will get killed. I must have been pretty sure of myself because she looked a little frightened. There are those that know and those that don’t know. The crowd that doesn’t know will never know. Move along, please. The meat grinder awaits.
they should have left New York to the Dutchies … in Netherlands for real estate the only way is still UP, all officials are sure the worldwide RE bust will stop at our borders. Of course spending 30 billion a year on homeowner subisidies helps.
it’s a great time to buy here as well, just like it always was - at least for the last 25 years or so
New Amsterdam is home to millions of illusions.
The old Amsterdam is no different
Saucy sassy Sally turns into sausage?
Queens is so ridiculous it’s not funny.
Whitestone as example….Regular not fancy capes with 50×50 “yards” (patch of grass in front and back of house) going for 600+k.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=11357&typ=1&sid=c13cb22ec5844114bcf200c3bb551d53&pg=2&lid=1098687765&lsn=20&srcnt=105#Detail
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=11357&typ=1&sid=c13cb22ec5844114bcf200c3bb551d53&pg=3&lid=1098359825&lsn=24&srcnt=105#Detail
These are in middle class neighborhoods.
But it’s all over. Bayside, Flushing… Queens and NYC has a long way down.
FB Update: I have been tracking the pain of a co-worker of mine. She is very nice. They now have a house in New Jersey and a house in New York for sale. We were talking about the Jersey place the other day. She told me that her brother told her to just get rid of it. She agrees but her husband is not going to, that’s right, not going to just give it away. They currently have it priced at $675,000. These numbers just blow my mind. It could have fetched $850,000 at the peak of the madness. I finally asked her how long ago they bought. It’s been 4 years. Okay. So, you’ll take a loss. You should be able to deal with that. “How much did you pay for it?”
“$600,000.00.”
The CityBoy’s head almost exploded. WTF? They are this stressed out over selling a house in the biggest real estate crash since man invented fire and they are still looking for a “tidy profit”? Bye bye sympathy. “Hello” indifference. I like her enough to give her indifference. People are f-cking amazing. Even the ones that you think might have common sense, don’t. Mmmmmm, Coacoa Pebbles and Jack Daniels sure tastes good this morning.
Well, wouldn’t $40,000 of that 75K difference go right off the top to realtards? And then with all the various fees on both ends of the transaction, I don’t know how big their profit will be, if at all. I agree with you in that they should cut their losses and be thankful but they aren’t going to make out like bandits, no matter what.
Show her a sales history of the house, then a graph of wages and of equivalent rents for the same period - might be eye-opening to her and/or her brain-dead husband. There’s still the possibility she could get out whole or with only a small loss after the commission. She needs to be shocked into action. If she waits much longer, she is so hosed.
They probably HELOC’d the crap out of it.
‘Mmmmmm, Coacoa Pebbles and Jack Daniels sure tastes good this morning.’
Is it as good as scrambled eggs, a chilly Fat Tire summer ale, and a peanut m&m I found on the floor? It couldn’t be.
Power Bras and lattes, whoops, I mean Power Bars (flippin’ keyboard!).
Hey, wait!!! I’m in Moab, I don’t have to say flippin’ down here!
Effin’ keyboard.
Sen. Baucus Would Pay Docs More, Private Medicare Plans Less
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, the Montana Democrat, introduced a Medicare bill aimed at avoiding a scheduled 10.6% dropoff in Medicare physician fees set to hit July 1…Besides an increase in physician fees, there are some nice bon bons for others, including rural care providers, clinical labs and community health centers. The legislation would also cut beneficiaries’ co-payments on mental health services… there are also provisions encouraging doctors to prescribe medicines electronically.
Medicare Advantage is a target for Democrats, who often focus on concerns that it costs the government more per beneficiary than traditional Medicare. Republicans, on the other hand, tend to defend the private plans.
As usual, the Medicare Advantage proposals are likely to be a rub with Republicans…[the] Bush Administration has already served notice of its intent to defend the Medicare Advantage plans through a veto if necessary
My parents volunteer to help some older seniors with their Medicare issues. A lot of them are in a Medicare Advantage plan because it makes the co-pays less. But even though the insurance company that runs the Medicare Advantage plan gets the extra subsidy, they pay the hospitals so little that the local hospital won’t take the plan. Yup, the seniors in the area are on Medicare but can’t go to the local hospital for anything other than the emergency room.
And for this fantastic service, the insurance company gets a huge premium over regular Medicare reimbursements.
The US can’t compete against this?
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/06/07/India.god.ap/index.html
CNN.com: Indian school names monkey god chairman
LUCKNOW, India (AP) — He’s a revered Hindu monkey god. And now, he’s the chairman of an Indian business school…
–
There is a reason why India is the least competitive nation on earth in sports competition. Only ignoramuses are bullish on the Indian economy and the Indian Scam Market, both a result of the global bubble whose origins lie in the US Housing Bubble, the source of money, which comes from increase in debt.
As the US Housing Bubble deflates the whole global boom will go into reverse. It is only a matter of time before various time lags work thru.
Jas
Every Arab country is less athletic than India, which produces golfers, cricketeers, and tennis players. Indians, like Virginians, are remarkable snobs, which (to paraphrase Faulkner) is probably why I tend to like them.
–
Paul,
You are mis-informed. You must always take the population into account — 1.1B people!
Jas
Jas - that is what I think, too. Too many assumptions about where we’re headed ignore matters like 2% Fed money and China/India. The predictions of a zillion Chinese buying and driving cars will not happen, at least anytime soon. China heavily subsidizes gasoline prices and will do so only until the Olympics are concluded and a fond memory, IMO. Westerners generally cannot comprehend the importance to the government and the people of China of a successful hosting of these Olympics, though much of the populace currently is distracted by problems from the earthquake. Once we reduce our imports from China, and the Aussies reduce their imports, and so on, and the Chinese perhaps float their currency more freely, there will be a giant reality check in “Boomchuan” Province. They surely know it must happen, but now is not the time to acknowledge that.
Links
Working Papers | April 2008
The International Monetary (Non-)Order and the “Global Capital Flows Paradox”
Jörg Bibow
http://www.levy.org/vdoc.aspx?docid=1072
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
It is a world wide party, you are not invited. The party will last at least 18 months probably 36 months. The Baltic dry index shows world growth sans US. We have nothing they want.
I tried to reply, but hit the wrong button before I finished, so something jumbled and incoherent (I was changing it) may pop up.
We’ll just assume you’re channeling ‘taxmeupthebooty’ and be patient with you.
BWAHAHAHA!!!
The Gap… Hey, Txchick, Any idea who the Texas banker and high stakes poker player is?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/06/06/BAPH114LO4.DTL
probably Rusty Rose although I would hardly call him a “banker.”
I think they mean Andy Beal. He has an interesting story.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Beal
I know who he is. Client of my old law firm.
Feds subpoena Alaska real estate listings
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/429276.html
According to a recent alert sent by the Anchorage-based listing service to its members, the federal government is putting a “high priority” on investigating whether people within the real estate industry are violating a consumer protection law Congress enacted in 1974 to prevent undisclosed kickbacks and the flow of bad information to borrowers.
Those fed investigators will be a very busy bunch.
They sure are out in front of this issue. It just amazes me how worthless government officials and regulators are. They would have a hard time finding their a$$ with a road map and a compass. All they usually do is manage to make life difficult for those that actually choose to follow the rules.
So how do we plan to fix it? With MORE government, of course.
Well, the Wall St. free marketeers didn’t mind government intervention when their whole Ponzi schemes started to cave in, did they?
The US can’t compete against this???
Indian school names monkey god chairman
LUCKNOW, India (AP) — He’s a revered Hindu monkey god. And now, he’s the chairman of an Indian business school.
Is it legal for Bu$h to moonlight while he is still in office?
Well, he IS revered.
This was just delicious! These people are so astute in the matters of education. They have come to realize that this God is probably more effective as a leader and overseer than most of the other “accomplished” candidates who wanted the job. Maybe we could follow suit:) Any suggestions for a president?
Any suggestions for a president?
I recommend Goat Boy.
You’ve got to give some respect to a guy who, “was leading a monkey army to fight the demon King Ravana and rescue a kidnapped princess.”
I have a figurine of him on my desk. Hasn’t hurt my results
I’lltake that as a recommendation to get one for my deask, since I could use results like yours!
Look out St Joseph, there’s a new statue-bubble in town!
St. Joe statues get stolen, but it may take some time for the monkey god craze to get underway; so theft is unlikely at this point
St. Joe statues get stolen
No wonder why houses aren’t selling. St Joe is pissed!
–
Anything that makes people feel good and is harmless can’t hurt.
Jas
I say that all the time! Of course, then I have to define ‘harmless’, and ‘can’t hurt’. Ticky little distinctions, in my mind.
Speaking of the monkey god, (hmm, I should start all of my conversations with that phrase…) have you read the excellent book ‘The Laughing Sutra’ by Mark Salzman. Highly recommended.
When India launches a missile into space they bring the missile to the launching pad on a bullock cart. This is only a gesture to convey to the people who might be living in the jet set age or the horse and buggy age that they are all included in the country’s success.
Same applies here
People and their gods frighten me. (One of the many character flaws my girlfriend can’t stand).
On the other hand, “was leading a monkey army to fight the demon King Ravana and rescue a kidnapped princess” sounds like great inspiration for a movie. Maybe Peter Jackson can do it in the same vein as LOTR.
A computer generated monkey army. Think of all the hijinks..Brilliant!
Oil’s record signals black days ahead
By Adam Schreck
ASSOCIATED PRESS
June 7, 2008
NEW YORK – Oil prices made their biggest single-day leap ever yesterday, dragging the Dow Jones industrials down nearly 400 points and raising the once-unthinkable prospect of $150 oil and more record gas prices by the Fourth of July.
The meteoric rise of nearly $11 for the day piled atop an increase of almost $5.50 the day before, taking oil futures more than 13 percent higher in just two days, easily a record on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
And those weren’t the only stunning numbers of the day: The government also reported that the nation’s unemployment rate zoomed to 5.5 percent in May, a monthly increase of half a percentage point, the biggest in 22 years.
Will I guess the Cheney-Shrub stratagem of keeping US Dollars $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ from Iran & Mr. Chavez is finally starting to work…like what are those knuckleheads going to do with all that oil money @ $150.00 a barrel…buy weapons & Harley’s?
Fortunately, our Fearless Leader believes in a “strong dollar policy.”
I know, because I’ve heard him say it over and over.
We have nothing to fear, a man with an MBA is in charge.
Oil traders have cast the gauntlet on BB’s “stong dollar” jawboning effort, and now the Fed faces a Morton’s Fork between spiraling unemployment and rampaging oil prices. Given the appearance of a sudden jump in the misery index (roughly speaking, the sum of inflation + unemployment rate), is the Fed policy response whatsoever relevant at this point?
Friday, June 6, 2008
Listen to the show
Climb in joblessness hits 22-year high
More than 49,000 jobs were lost in May, according to the latest government report. That pushed the unemployment rate up half a point to 5.5% — the biggest increase since 1986. Ashley Milne-Tyte reports.
[Employee Development Department employee Robert Mortensen, left, helps a job seeker call about a job listing at the Marin Employment Connection in San Rafael, Calif. (Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)]
KAI RYSSDAL: The oil story took its time getting going today. But Wall Streeters were sweating early all the same thanks to the May unemployment report — 49,000 jobs lost. And a big jump in the unemployment rate — up half a percent to 5.5 percent. That’s its biggest increase since 1986. From New York, Ashley Milne-Tyte reports.
Watching the oil traders rape the “strong dollar” policy has been most entertaining (and somewhat lucrative too.)
I still expect them to raise margin requirements not reverse negative real interest rates.
“…There were also differences of opinion over the cause of the wild rise in oil prices. Bodman argued the surge was largely a simple problem of supply and demand.
“We’re in a difficult position where we have a lid on production and we have increasing demand in the world,” he told a small group of reporters before the meeting, dismissing the idea that speculation was fueling price increases….”
U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman
Someone in government understands. The demand/supply curve crosses at 158/bbl.
So the status of our lives will decline?
So what, if it falls back to the 1960’s. Wages and costs (including homes are affordable). Delete credit cards. Delete 0% downpayments. Delete Secularization of loans. Banks carry the loans for the length. Put control of credit back into the local banks that are at ground zero with their own money. Single home provider (now women with men sharing the income generation.
Some things will change, no more cheap oil/energy. Purchasing “core” houses that additions of space as finances improve and families expand. Spend more time with families and neighbors. Reduction in TV and other mind wasting electronics.
While the 60’s were not the best of times, it makes more sense than the way things are done today. PS: Sorry for those under 30 that are more hip today, however you are the tail end of a disaster, that will end whether you like it or not.
PS: we will need more prosaic!!!
A must read for any housing bear.
A good collection of statistics, charts and analyziz why this time it s REALLY DIFFERENT and we are a long way from bottom.
Warning: 858KB pdf file.
Nice slide show. Also liked the term “Deathanol”.
Yeah, bonus for the “deathanol”.
I hope that file is clean, as I saved it to my archive of bubble-abelia.
“Rule of thumb: your home should cost 3 to 4 times your gross annual
salary”
While I agree that this is a lot better than 5-10X, to me this number still is too high. How can 3-4X work if you or your bunk buddy get laid off, or you want to do the soccer-mom thing or non-government schools or be able to endure any noticeable personal financial disaster?
The old rule of thumb was 2.5-3X gross earnings. I did it at exactly 2.5 times and we never had a lot of money for fun things or major savings or investments, though we did spend a lot on schools of our choosing. While mortgage rates are a bit lower now than the 7.25% average when I first bought, other things are higher and scarier - energy, medical insurance and property taxes in particular.
Overly cautious or not, I’d never take or recommend a loan over 2.5 times my income. Especially when renting is such a cost-effective alternative.
Totally agree, Chip. Especially right now. Looks like wages/benefits will continue to go down (relatively speaking) in the near future.
Too many variables make it difficult to justify stretching finances, IMHO.
The American Public needs to take “start over” evaluation of the basic needs of our society. We can not survive as a multi-tyre wage society between the old and the young.
For Med. Care, a basic public health component or a means tested payment system. For SS, a minimum income level at basic survival level. For pensions, rolled into SS. Credit, locally determined by local financial institutions wherein the loans are carried on their books for the duration of the loan. For the national defense, only those funds to protect our country’s physical boarders. If any one threatens of physical being, bomb them to h*ll!!! Withdraw all troops from foreign countries. Shrink the military. Cancel all independent military contractors (Blackwell).
So, what do we do with all this money?
Rebuild our infrastructure and our R&D. Upgrade our educational system. Rebuild our manufacturing base. Break up large corporations so that any business can fail.
Next to Russa, we have the greatest wealth of raw materials (in my opinion). We need to cut of the rest of the world for their sake and ours.
By the way, we all we need prosaic in oder to put up with long lost family and relatives.
lol
If any one threatens of physical being, bomb them to h*ll!!!
soooo… if someone attacks, lets say, NYC .. we are allowed to do what? Follow them home (lets use Afghanistan for the sake of argument) and bomb them to hell? And if they try to escape by running off to hide in some friendly country (lets say Iraq, for the sake of argument), we can follow them there too?
That doesn’t seem like much of a change in policy.
I have a stupid Idea for reducing the population explosion-Birth control or war. I prefer the former over the latter.
Like lemmings over the cliff, this problem will be resolved one way or the other!
Through incentives (I prefer that over penalties) somehow, some way the world population of humans has to be reduced to sustainable levels.
I read that all the humans on Earth could live in one city the size of Texas and population density would be about the same as San Francisco.
Texas sure is big..
The eyes of Texas are upon you,
all the live long day.
The eyes of Texas are upon you,
YOU CANNOT GET AWAY.
Do not think you can escape them,
At night, or early in the morn’.
The eyes of Texas are upon you,
Till Gabriel blows his horn!
I read that all the humans on Earth could live in one city the size of Texas and population density would be about the same as San Francisco.
There’s no way that is true…have you ever flown over Mexico City? Or the slums in Rio?
Soylent Green!
hey, I am not talking about eating anyone! I am just saying that the current approach is not helping either the patient or the client.
In 1978 in San Antonio, I had a neighbor who was an OR tech at the County General. He acquired is skilled as an Army OR tech in Vietnam.
I may be wrong here, however he stated that doctors performed surgery on an individual with multiple injuries, any of which would cause the patient’s death! The patient was a practice run for this OR tech, who the senior physician allowed the OR tech to practice his skills. That OR tech was named Jack.
So, If you want to know how your health expenses are wasted, get to know operating techs at your local county hospital! I suspect you will hear a lot of horror stories. Better yet visit the local bar close to a hospital to hear the after hours stories of the day’s events. The bar I attended in 78 had an IV bag at the bar. Good tip-off of the clientèle.
Completely off-topic subject, but with all the infighting and bitching these days about who’s got more and who’s got less, and who’s responsible for our woes - I just rose above all that crap by watching the ten episode PBS series ‘Carrier’, and am reminded once again about the sacrifices of the good men and women who do the heavy lifting to help help keep us safe. Has anyone here seen the series? It’s worth a look.
Sorry if I posted this twice.
I like that series. Damn those things are big!
I was mesmerized by the series and watched the whole thing in a weekend.
From Atantic City,NJ area: Went to a spring sports banquet one nite this week and ended up at a table with 45-ish owner of a little marina on back bay. The guy’s father is a civil servant type who really got the marina going about 30 years ago. Anyway, ex-wife asked guy how goes business, what with the price of fuel and people cutting back. He indicated that was a problem, but his bigger worry was a couple of barges he acquired with plans to lease them to contractors building or improving bayfront properties. Said the barges are just sitting. Also said property taxes were “killing” him. IIRC, city did reassessment based on October 1, 2006 values about 18 mos. ago. Cottage I sold for $265,000 in March of 2007 was intially assessed for $384,000, reduced to $300,00 on appeal; that was about $4500 per year in taxes. Guy and his father are nice enough fellows. Hope that barge thing works out for them.
Ed McMahon should visit his own house and present his hot young wife with a $10,000,000 Publisher’s Clearing House sweepstakes winning ticket. That way they would be able to live in their Beverly Hills house happily ever after and avoid foreclosure!
“As all women who have ever shared a toilet with a man can attest, men can be especially spacey when it comes to their, er, aim. In the privacy of a home, that may be a mere annoyance. But, in a busy airport restroom used by throngs of travelers each day, the unpleasant effects of bad aim can add up rather quickly. Enter an ingenious economist who worked for Schiphol International Airport in Amsterdam. His idea was to etch an image of a black house fly onto the bowls of the airport’s urinals, just to the left of the drain. The result: Spillage declined 80 percent. It turns out that, if you give men a target, they can’t help but aim at it.”
http://nudges.wordpress.com/the-amsterdam-urinals/
Coming soon to the pissoir nearest you.
At one of my favorite bars, they have Bin Laden’s face on the urinals. Never miss.
I saw this posted in a men’s room years ago: “We aim to please. You aim too, please?”
You can’t be serious, can you?
Hey my aim is as good or bad as the next mans! lol
Do you realize how many wives, SO’s will be buying stick on flys that are water resistant. A whizzing industry.
“The finest Flies and spider attachments for all your toilet needs.”
Whizzers, Inc. “We aim to please”
Either hoz your are sick or I am?
I like your humor, but this is a serious matter!!!
“It turns out that, if you give men a target, they can’t help but aim at it.”
I’ve seen it advised that parents throw a cheerio or two in the toilet when potty training their young ‘uns.
Soory Hoz, posted earlier at the wrong location.
I am sorry, I am laughing so hard, that I am speechless!!!
With regard to SS and Med Care,
Issue drugs for medcare. I have heard that 80% roughly occurs in the last 6 months of life. I say drugs are cheaper, since the surgery does not (in my opinion) either does not extend life appreciably or makes the quality of life in the remaining 6 months horrible.
SS should be handed by an independent commission that control of the ss contributions used to pay claims. Stop allowing the federal govt to use these funds by sending IOUs of treasury bills. Let the commission invest these funds some what like Calpers.
imho
Didn’t Calpers discover rather a lot of subprime derivative paper in their portfolio recently?
ReverendDave,
Don’t mean to be impolite, but didn’t I hear somewhere that the Gov/Fed have inflated our money, making it less valuable today Than yesterday?
All I can say is that there is no guaranteed way of insuring retirement income 30 years’ out. Look it, if this is a scam then this scam is no different than what is offered with private companies like Metlife.
Of course, the simple answer, is to cancel/void/stop all banking/insurance/govt benefits and let ever dog rule. While that may where we end up, it does not mean that should be our end goal. If this is where we plan to end up, it will indeed be an ugly existence.
I hate to sound anti-capitalist, however, if anything needs to be regulated, its finance and insurance. If these two segments are not adequately regulated, society collapses. This was I made in a CPCU class in 1991, and its still true today. The kids in the class laughed. I do not think they are laughing now!
Pss…anyone have good drugs to kill the pain to what we will face in the near future.
Sorry, lost in the moment from my Berkeley days.
lol
Afternoon, HBBers.
Life sometimes is just plain weird.
I have migrated for the weekend to Moab in order to be out of the way when my LL (no, NOT lesbian lover, but rather, landlady
) comes and gets her stuff out of the house I’m renting for free. I’m staying in a very nice condo with all my dogs and cats with the blessings of the owner, who just happens to be the person who bought my house here a year or so ago and paid full price. I hadn’t seen her since then, but saw her get off a train in my little town (didn’t know it was her) and offered her a ride (it was very cold) and we both did a double take on that one. This was a few weeks ago and now I’m in her condo (she’s a very nice person, obviously).
If that weren’t ironic enough, the kitchen cabinets look vaguely familiar…nice oak, but a bit dated…then I recognize a scratch that came from a little party I had one night…hey, these were MY cabinets. She’s remodeling my house and put in new cabinets and relocated these to her condo.
Ahhh, I LOVE Moab, maybe I’ll have to move back and buy my old house back when she’s done remodeling it.
Anyway, got waylaid by a rodeo parade in town this morning and was sitting there watching Miss Rodeo Utah and Smoky the Bear go by when these three furriners come up and start talking. Their English was pretty good. Asked them where they’re from, and they replied, Beijing, you know, where the Olympics will be, they were very proud of that.
I told them that, for Pete’s sakes, I think most Americans know where Beijing is…then got to thinking…well, maybe not, kind of like not knowing where Latvia is.
I told them to go to the rodeo if they wanted to see what America used to be like. I grew up in rodeo country, used to ride my horse in the parades as a kid, but now I see them a little differently and as a bit hard on the animals, but hey, if you’re from Beijing and come to the US, why not?
Ahhh, off to get my dogs washed, the Humane Society is having a dog wash fund-raiser and guess who’s doing the washing?
An ex-boyfriend. Ha…ha ha….ha ha ha ha ha…Ain’t life grand???
Jeeze, next thing you know, I’ll find she
Whoops, that ghost text just mysteriously appeared - no, my ex-boyfriend ain’t a she…
flippin’ keyboard, it’s possessed…
Hey, whats wrong with ll, and I do not mean land lady!
Don”t worry about your sexual preference. Its not the size of your penis, but your brain power/evaluation that I am concerned about.
I am moderate conservative, and I’m only concerned with valid opinion that produces accurate results. I am not concerned with sex or sexual gender. If you are right, your are right by me from an economic standpoint.
My attitude is that beggers can not be choosers!
Hey Lost, someone thought I was talking about my lesbian lover when I used LL, so just want to be clear here, after all I’m in UTARRRR.
As for the size of my penis…well…ha ha ha…hahahahaha…
Hey, Oly can you finish this post for me????
Lost,
Quit while your ahead?
BWHAHAHA!!!
Ohmygotoheck, this is just going to H-E-double hockeysticks fast, ain’t it!!! (Man, they’re gonna run me out of Utarrr).
(We owe this to NYCityBoy’s influence, eh?)
Sir, I will quite while I am still ahead.
No opinion made. I just wanted to say its an revelate issue with out implying anything about you.
I apologize if my comments were interpreted as any reflection upon you.
I wish my screw-ups could be assigned to the computer, however, I was sloppy.
Again, I would like to offer my serious regret that was implied.
Good luck to everyone this fine June morning.
Hey, pass her my way. With my luck women, It can’t get anywhere worst.
lol, LL
Don’t worry, I just went through this myself…. BWahahahaha!
Okay, I’ll take it in another (although not necessarily safer) direction. When I read “furriners” my mind registered “furriers” by which I thought he meant those weirdos that like to dress up like chipmunks, and rabbits, and gophers and have weird fuzzy animal sex.
When in Utah….
Hey guys, let me clear up some of this confusion - I’m NOT a guy.
There.
So…having said that, I’m like, you know, normally, NORMAL!!!
Normally, Lost, I can follow along loud and clear, but you had me wondering there for a minute.
Yet another HBBer whose gender identity I had incorrect. Thanks for clarifying.
Here’s an HBB weekend suggestion: Disclose yourself. (not to be confused with Disrobe yourself.)
I am sorry if this is late in posting:
I apologize, if anyone thinks I implied anything I thought I was making a joke, however, this became more serious than I expected. My most serious apologize to Lost for anything said that is harmful.
Which you all and “lost” the best.
Maybe I should get off this website, because I may be doing more harm than good.
Hey Lost, Lost here, no, it’s all in good fun, you have to reach out in the virtual realm sometimes to feel the sardony, sarcasm, and irony. You just got us all started on a pretty whacky thread, IMO. I’m ROTFLMAO!!
ha hah
http://www.gop.com/clintonvsobama/
Just read O’s response to H’s endorsement of him.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
This guy is “slicker than snot”.
The game starts again. We will see who wins, though I do not thinks its make any difference.
The facts on the ground will dictate the actions of our next Prez. I hope, that who ever it is (I am ot counting on it), doesn’t screw it up too badly.
You know, maybe you don’t, when I was 18 years old I was very opinionated.
At 60, I guess I am “mellow yellow”. I would strongly suggest that you hug your children and grandchildren.
I guess, like “Indiana Jones”, I am looking for my last “Crusade” and my survival in my declining years.
I guess that the total collapse of our economic system is good enough reason to finally make a stand. I have been radicalized.
Thank you all for opening my eyes as to what is happening.
Hilarious - I saw a piece on CNN this morning on how flipping foreclosures is now a big business. They had a fellow on who was expecting to clear 500,000 USD this year.
Great. So when this clown gets caught in this next game of musical chairs, will Messrs Frank and Dodd be willing to funnel my tax money to them too? Rhetorical question, answer is, “Obviously.”
We’ll know when there’s a bottom when people again start looking at housing as a place to live instead of a quick path to riches.
From the Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121279970984353933-email.html
“Countrywide Friends Got Good Loans
Mozilo Sought, Received
Better Rates for Some;
Problems for Fannie Mae?”
It seems that Mozillo and Fannie Mae were getting “special loans” for people, like Barack Hussein Obama’s friend James Johnson, who’s on his VP selection committee.
Here’s more about Barack’s buddy, and his loans:
Mr. Johnson returned to Countrywide several times to finance his growing real-estate holdings. In November 2001, he received a Countrywide loan of $1.3 million for a home in Palm Desert, Calif. The rate was 5.250% for five years, then became adjustable. Rates on such loans averaged about 6% to 6.2% about that time, HSH says.
In June 2003, Mr. Johnson obtained a $971,650 mortgage on a house in upper northwest Washington, D.C., with a rate of 3.875% for the first five years. About that time, the market average was about 4.3% to 4.9%, according to HSH.
In January 2006, Mr. Johnson got a $5 million home-equity line of credit from Countrywide on a residence in Ketchum, Idaho, near the Sun Valley ski resort. And in December 2007 he received a Countrywide home-equity line of credit for $1.01 million and executed a $1 million promissory note in connection with that home.
No wonder Barack wants cram-downs! In addition to buying votes from specu-vestors, he’ll be helping out his buddies!