What’s For Dinner? Whatever’s On Sale!
Readers sugested a topic on future concerns. “I would like to know what future scenarios keep people here potentially awake at night. What kinds of unfolding events related to the housing bubble seem rather plausible and make people’s anxiety go up? Thanks!”
A reply, “Unplanned pregnancies and having to buy a house in this current market.”
One from Texas, “Crime, crime, and more crime. The local news last night did a story highlighting the almost 40% surge in property crime since the beginning of the year. Panhandlers (some proffesional, will get in their BMW parked out of sight and drive off at dusk) on almost every street corner, some brazzen enough to assault your car and/or you in it. Several weeks ago, I went to my first ‘gun show’ to price various firearms. For those who have never heard of a gun show, imagine a traveling flea market with guns, really popular in Texas. I’ve been eyeing a 12-gauge pistol grip Mossberg for the house (wife, two kids at home) and may even see ’bout one a dem fancy conceal/carry permits for a pistol in the family car.”
One added, “Boy do I hear ya! I’ve recently started locking myself in my car when I stop at a gas station after starting the pump because I keep getting accosted by individuals wanting spare change cuz they’ve ran out of gas and can’t get to work.”
Another posted, “I worry about property crime…but I’ve always been that way. I’m in a temporary housing situation now, but once I get settled in to a permanent location (probably some time later this year or early next) one of the projects on the top of my list is a total surveillance system around the entire property.”
An economic angle, “The collapse of a huge number of small businesses and the impact this will have on the economy as we may find out that too many of them were focussed entirely on wants not needs. I’m talking about closet organizers, scrapbook suppliers and consultants, gift basket makers, spas, anything related to the wedding industrial complex, doggie day care and cat psychics, college consultants that guide children through a 10 year planning process to get into Tufts, etc.”
“A lot of these are classic second earner jobs and our current standard of living requires the second income. What if it all goes poof? There is the slightest possiblilty that it will all match up - that the people who bring in the second incomes will loose their jobs but everyone will be lowering their standard of living (if you think life is better with a $100 haircut instead of a $20 one) all together and all will be well - sort of like JP Morgan buying Bear Stearns and all of a sudden they don’t have to worry about their risk as counterparty to the credit default swaps backed by Bear. But I don’t think so.”
One replied, “These businesses seem to go poof on their own all the time anyway. I can’t believe all the dumbass flower shops, boutique furnishing joints and niche restaurants are started up by - who, doctors’ wives? Lawyers wives? Or some worthless flake who came into big bucks somehow, only to blow it on an ill-conceived business? They come and go all the time here. It shouldn’t matter to me, I guess, but I keep wondering what on earth are they thinking - and when they go to sell the business, why should anyone help them get out from under it?”
“There was a gourmet place started here by a local guy who was a chemistry scholar who then went into some business venture, investment banking or whatever, then came back here to start what he thought was God’s Gift to Greek & Italian cuisine. Only he knew how to prepare the dishes properly! He spent a fortune on the place, because he was going to do it right! But the food was just,…average. Place was packed for a couple months like any new restaurant. A year later he has to close up. The place (an old JB’s Big Boy) is still for lease two years late. I just shake my head at this stuff.”
“Guess that’s why I’m not in business for myself.”
An observation, “The comment about doctors is true. We have the first panic sell on our street (all offers considered, 20% off, etc the 1st week he put the place on the market for sale). Turns out this person is a doctor and decided to invest (apparently every cent he had and all he could HELOC) in a new specialty restaurant and lost everything. The restaurant is now boarded up and he and his wife moved out of their house after dark one night last week.”
And another, “You only have to watch ‘Ramsey’s Kitchen Nightmares’ on BBC America to see that overweening egos and restaurants are the perfect way of stripping yourself of your nest egg.
The majority of restaurants never make it to thier first anniversary. Its hard work, and not suited to dillitantes.”
One was specific, “Technology failures, power delivery failures, information stream failures, water delivery failures, earthquake, famine, revolution, flood.”
The Tucson Citizen “Crappy economy? Get used to it. You can even call it a recession with the blessing of University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest. Vest, well known for finding optimism when others see gloom, went right to the R word Wednesday morning when he and fellow UA economist Gerald Swanson gave the summer version of their twice yearly economic forecast to 400 local business leaders.”
“‘Let’s start with the economy has slipped into recession,’ Vest said. ‘It’s a full-blown recession.’”
“Vest said Arizona is one of nine states in recession. The others: California, Nevada, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Ohio and Rhode Island.”
“‘Housing is the biggest challenge for us,’ Vest said. “We’re in the biggest decline since World War II. There’s no sign of a bottom yet,” Vest said. “We will work through it. By some accounts, the credit crunch is still building. We may be halfway through. I don’t know how you can tell that.’”
“‘We know something is wrong,’ Swanson said. ‘We’re just not sure how to get out of it.’”
“There have been substantial local job losses in construction, the leisure sector, professional and business services, the finance sector and manufacturing, but data shows higher levels of education are leading to better job security. Swanson said the unemployment rate for high school dropouts is 21 percent, while for high school graduates it’s 12.9 percent, for those with some college it’s 6.9 percent and for those with bachelor’s degrees or higher it’s 3.1 percent.”
“Still, consumer spending is down across the board. ‘We have a rather strange economy,’ Swanson said. ‘The new mantra is ‘Honey, what’s for dinner?’ ‘Whatever is on sale.’”
The Herald Tribune. “The pain of the great plunge in sales and prices is still being felt in Cape Coral. While it might barely register among the ritzy homes in the southwestern region of the savanna-like city, it is crushing those who invested in the more generic houses in the northern reaches.”
“Business has been extremely good at Larry’s Estate Jewelry and Pawn shop. ‘Anybody that was in the real estate market, they make up half our customers,’ said David Close, manager of the shop for 15 years. ‘It was never like this.’”
“When pawning merchandise, the seller must list his occupation. More these days, it is ‘mortgage broker’ or ‘builder’ or ‘developer.’”
“Close said he has never had more one-carat diamond rings being pawned by those who now need money for mortgage payments, rent or gas. Amid the slot machine for $169, the air compressor for $350 and the fishing rod and reel for $79, sits an impressive row of jewelry cases filled with rings, gold necklaces and pricey ankle bracelets. Most of the items were not pawned: They were out-and-out sold, something Close says was not commonplace before the real estate downturn.”
“‘It’s been building toward this for the last two years,’ Close said. ‘The mortgage brokers we see in here might have made $5 million three years ago, but it was all in paper, not cash.’”
“Entering Cape Coral’s northeast section on Burnt Store Road…more houses come into view and then they become numerous, all fairly new and most with shiny aluminum pool enclosers. Some sit unfinished, abandoned by builders gone bust. Five miles in, newly planted trees line the median of the road and the occasional cluster of homes gives way to identical townhomes, packed tightly.”
“Cheryl Custer works as a cash register clerk. Custer, a Cape Coral native, spent nearly two decades as a mortgage processor. She burned out toward the end of the housing boom, but still has a lot of friends in the business. She had to take the clerk’s job because her husband, a builder, has been out of work for months.”
“‘It’s the worst I’ve ever seen it,’ Custer said. ‘We have people coming in here every day who tell me they are just about to get kicked out of their homes and head up north.’”
“Custer’s home has dropped in value from $287,000 to $102,000 in two years. ‘We’ve been living off our savings, which are now like this,’ she said, using thumb and forefinger to make a zero. ‘We are just trying to hold onto our house.’”
The Tallahassee Democrat. “As the economy takes a dip, the Big Bend Crime Stoppers’ cash rewards for tips that lead to arrests are looking like extra income to some area residents. ‘People are looking for other avenues to generate revenue, and reporting crime is a nice clean way to do it,’ said Allen Stucks, executive director of Crime Stoppers. ”We have seen a jump in more people paying attention to crime where in the past they considered it someone else’s problem.’”
“Crime Stoppers gives out rewards of up to $1,000 to anonymous tipsters when their information leads to arrests. From October 2007 to April 2008, people called in 900 tips to the hot line. In the same period the previous year, people called in about 400 tips. Arrests resulting from those tips increased from 26 to 124. The number of cases cleared by those arrests also increased, from 68 to 232.”
“The poor economy is driving people all over the country to phone in more Crime Stoppers tips, said Elaine Cloyd, president of Crime Stoppers USA. ‘I think we’re seeing it particularly in areas throughout the south and the west, where there are more home foreclosures and where there’s higher unemployment,’ she said.”
“Crime Stoppers’ cash rewards are usually between $300 and $700, said Tallahassee Police Officer Kathy McGhin, who works with Crime Stoppers. McGhin said she has heard some tipsters say they are turning in people they know because they owe them money.”
“‘I’ve had a couple people say, ‘I wouldn’t have done this, but I need the money,’ McGhin said. ‘Some people were very appreciative that they got a reward.’”
Yet the independent builder is STILL building. I saw 2 new public notices for comments for small developments (Dutchess County, NY)
You are right..the development down the road that has 57 million dollar homes for sale(of which 20 are from 2006..vacant)…and now has 6 properties in foreclosures(2 of them are only 50% completed) from ONE BUILDER and guess what..
STILL BUILDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT???..does that even make sense!!!
If the houses can be sold for more than the cost going forward (not sunk cost), yes it does.
If you can tap the construction line of credit on the NEXT house to pay yourself and your subs as the house progresses—-then YOU BET it makes sense!
Builders are like sharks, remember… If they’re building (swimming), cash is flowing and they’re alive; when the stop building (swimming), they die.
Of course, in the long run it ends badly; but the builder lived longer as result, and the regional bank that funded the construction loan is the one holding the bag.
Our future economic situation, reports from “ground zero”.
Florida at the Precipice of Depression
I was going to call this “Banks March Us Into Depression,” or maybe more fitting is . . . “Complete Collapse of US Banking System.” Folks, that is what we are looking at. I don’t see any way around it. What we’re seeing here in Florida, is your crystal ball. And what happens here, is coming to a town near you . . . soon.
Mike Morgan, J.D., CRS, GRI
Stuart, FL
http://activerain.com/blogsview/538147/Florida-at-the-Precipice
I thought about sending this link on to several people I know:
But then I thought why bother.
All, everyone I know wants to do is “party on Garth”. Everyone I know is living on borrowed money and beyond their means.
Do you know many people who live below their means?
Oh hell no, that’s too dignified.
Tons, but I hang out with mostly engineers.
I greatly enjoy your ground-zero reporting and am a regular reader. Keep up the good work.
Sorry, but I am not the reporter, but Mike Morgan is the source of this info. All I have done is provide you all with his website.
http://activerain.com/blogsview/538147/Florida-at-the-Precipice
Good stuff. I have a friend that has sat on a few bank conference calls and he was shocked. He said it was much worse than anyone is hearing.
Then he went out and bought 4 properties.
Go figure.
I’m a buyer of decent diamonds from the public who needs to sell them but I see the same wishing price mentality as in houses. They show you a crappy stone without a GIA cert and a mall store “appraisal” expecting to get maybe 20-30% off mall store retail price. I have gotten a few good ones from people who really really need the money and are realistic but I see a lot of people trying to get 5-6K on Craigslist for 1 ct. mall store diamond. Ridiculous.
I’ve been looking for luxury watches and I’m seeing the same thing. I can go to a jewelry store and can get it very close to their wishing price (with papers).
Try Portero. They have good prices on used luxury watches. I’m eyeing a Cartier Roadster on there which has been reduced twice already.
Nice site! Looking for a specific Hublot Big Bang and Mont Blanc Timewalker models but I’ll check from time to time. Thxs
I’ve seen both of those on there. Especially the Timewalkers.
Same with used cars that I’ve been looking at. We are looking at minivans and people think they can get the ASKING price that similar dealerships have on the window. Most dealers have the prices about 2K over what they will instantly drop to on price, and when you are selling party to party you only get a little more than what your trade in value would be. I guess people are so upside down in their cars that they are hoping for a greater fool to release them from the chains of their lease/note. What I had to do when I was young and stupider was actually take out a loan for the difference when I sold a car upside down. To hell with the cheese, let me out of the trap!
When you buy a consumer good you are buying retail, when you resell that same item you are a wholesaler, except you are a sucky wholesaler because that isn’t your business. Heck most diamond retailers don’t own half of what’s in their cases, the wholesalers own the stuff, and get paid when the retailer sells the item.
It sure looks like one helleav lot of HomeDebters and CarDebtors will be upsidedown and “In the Bucket” of debt in the next few years.
Americans make some really dumb decisions but listening to 6%realtywhores and the trusty floorwhores in car dealerships will be the costliest…AS USUAL
I’m finding the same thing on recent Craigslist listings. People seem to expect a buyer w/5 - 10% off a retail price they paid a year or two ago.
I’m seeing the same thing. Have been looking for a used car for both of my daughters. Seeing cars with 100K miles that have asking prices HALF of new. Big SUVs are getting cheap, but I want to avoid the gas mileage issues.
The problem is, these cars are basically worth ZERO if they have an engine or transmission/transaxle failure……..they cost too much to fix.
Dodge SRT-10s are getting cheap also………and I only have a 5 mile (highway) drive to work. Hmmmmmmmm…………:)
RE: these cars are basically worth ZERO if they have an engine or transmission/transaxle failure……..they cost too much to fix.
The demise of the option of a standard transmission in a domestically produced automobile is a disgrace.
And I don’t want to hear about, “oh, my leg is too weak to work a clutch…I drove a rental Spanish Altea on the M25.
Clutch pedal pressure was non-existent.
Just another example of American’s being too fate, lazy, dumb, and ignorant to know how to use a clutch pedal.
I recall a stat that said someting like 90% of the population doesn’t know how to drive a car with a clutch. From my personal observations, I’d say that it is almost 100% of the people under 25.
Oone of the primary things I’ve done with all of my girls is show them “common sense” things that they should know, no matter what happens. One of them is making sure they know how to drive a stick. The youngest learned when she was 14.
One of my oldest daughter’s fondest memories was loading Uzi magazines for me and a shooting buddy of mine……
My least favorite thing to see of craigslist (when I’m looking to buy) is “I paid X”, selling for “X - whatever amount”. Even if brand new, you automatically have to knock off 50% because there’s no warranty (usually no manuals, no support). Best Buy will exchange my clothes dryer if it doesn’t work. Joe Schmoe on Craigslist won’t.
1 ct ??
Unfortunately that is a carrot that they cannot eat…They will come around when they get hungry….
I’ve been looking for a steal on an embroidery machine (don’t ask). I can’t find a a single one manufactured in this century that is more than a stingy smidge off retail.
Same with tanzanite jewelry.
There are still a lot of heads in the clouds out there.
people trying to get 5-6K on Craigslist for 1 ct. mall store diamond. Ridiculous.
Most are I-1 or 2, H-K in color and sell for 5K and higher in the malls, but only worth about 1K -1.5K.
Exactly. My big prize so far has been an ideal cut .75 E VS1 with cert for $475
So where can one get -real- deals on diamonds then? I mean getting a 5k diamond for about 5k without the 300% markup?
half of the Rappaport price would be a good start
A lot of diamonds and jewelry have been sold partially as investments to unsuspecting customers. In Singapore, a lot of people have been moving from gold to diamonds because they feel they’re a better place to stash the money!. LOL, especially with the new home grown ones from Boston and Florida….
“Crime, crime, and more crime. The local news last night did a story highlighting the almost 40% surge in property crime since the beginning of the year. Panhandlers (some proffesional, will get in their BMW parked out of sight and drive off at dusk) on almost every street corner, some brazzen enough to assault your car and/or you in it.
I’m worried about crime, too. I think you’ll see a huge increase in property crime. With all these empty houses, people will get more used to breaking and entering, whether a house is occupied or not.
(The Police in the East Bay city of Fremont, CA stopped responding to residential burglar alarms because the false alarm rate was too high. The result: Burglaries up 30% year-over-year so far. I don’t know why the Fremont Police didn’t solve this problem with a more traditional approach: have a $250/year “license fee” for an alarm, and charge $250 for each false. I’d pay that if I had to…)
I wonder if the second consecutive bust makes white collar crime more difficult, all the fraudsters will have to turn to street crime instead to make a living. Beware that ex-realtor, mortgage banker or credit rating analyst!
I live in what once was a pretty nice area….as the rents come down and they start offering the first monthfree, I am starting to notice more and more undesirables in the area.
Mike
“…one a dem fancy conceal/carry permits for a pistol in the family car.”
I hope you mean you’ll carry it on your person and not leave it in the car. Bad enough if your car gets stolen when you’re not in it, but if the thief also gets a gun in the deal…
$250/year “license fee” ??
OMG, not another fee !!!!!!! We are being fee’d to death….
” city of Fremont, CA”
Have a friend who owns a house in Fremont who just had a car stolen last week out of her driveway. Older toyota.
That is why my cars (even though they are older) are always clubbed. You never know when someone needs a vehicle for a smash and grab. Our old (ancient)van was stolen once to haul illegals. We were lucky to get it back.
My wife and I predicted crime would be going up about a year ago and moved to a nice area in a secure, luxury complex. The building is double gated and each apartment has an alarm system in it. Ya, we pay extra.. but I think it will be worth it, at least for the peace of mind.
This month we are taking gun lessons and will be buying are first pistol. We are also buying a locking gas cap for the car and various other measures that we can think of.
Some things to consider………..
If getting a handgun, buy a semi-auto. You can keep the ammo seperate from the gun, but is quickly loaded and a round chambered if you need it. Especially important if you have kids around. Try to get one that has a heavy enough recoil spring that a kid cannot easily chamber a round.
Also……..I have heard several recommendations to consider a semi-auto shotgun in 20ga for use as a home defence weapon.
The reasons?
-A long gun is easier to handle/more accurate in stress/adrenaline inducing situations, like someone kicking your door in.
-A semi auto shotgun is better than a pump, because you don’t have to worry/think about “pumping” the action……less likely to jam the gun.
-A 20 ga. throws marginally less/smaller buckshot, but the “felt” recoil is significantly less…..better for people not used to shooting everyday.
-If things get really bad, you can get dinner easier with a shotgun than a handgun…..:)
My personal favorite….. A Remington 1100 20 ga, with a magazine extender, loaded with a slug for the first round (to go thru the front door and make a helluva lot of noise), then buckshot.
If you have over 95% of your net worth in investments (government securities, stocks), you can lock up the information about them in a safe deposit box. I was burglarized once, so I am a stickler now for not leaving any paper with even my name on it in my apartment in Arizona. All the papers are safer in a generic-looking storage unit. I’m collecting restitution these days from that burglary a few years ago.
Sadly, I remember my late father telling me that you may as well dress like a bum, drive a POS car, and live in a modest place with a modest lifestyle so no one would think you have anything to take. Burglars can take my expensive leather sofa and chair, they can take my full suspension mountain bike, they can take an art piece of mine, but they will have to be work very hard to take my ID and drain my investment accounts.
Ah, yes. Except for the white collar criminals who have taken over our society. They will use tactics such as limiting one to $500/day bank account withdrawals or restrictions and taxes on 401Ks, as you watch the dollar replaced as the world’s currency. At $500/day, your money won’t be worth much by the time you get your hands on it.
Another example of the white collar criminal to watch out for is in Britain, where the government is going through safe deposit boxes looking for illegal things, like gold that doesn’t have a receipt.
The bubble strikes weddings. Is the Vegas bachelor party next? (Yes.)
“I’m too broke to be your maid of honor.”
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/06/09/lw.too.broke.maid.honor/index.html
When Sarah de Maintenon, a 33-year-old real estate agent in Syracuse, New York, agreed to be her best friend’s maid of honor two years ago, the economy was good and houses were selling like hot cakes.
But the currently slow real-estate market means that money has become tight as the big day — scheduled for October — slowly approaches.
These expectations are ridiculous.
A teacher buying a $500 dress for someone else’s wedding? Gimme a break.
have you seen Sex and the City?
Nope. And I ain’t a’gonna. I didn’t ever even watch the teevee show more’n 5 whole minutes. Why do I want to turn the channel to watch some cute gussied-up harlots with great shoes who drink too much and complain a lot? I can go to any number of friends’ houses and watch the exact same thing, except my friends are younger and cuter. And it comes with the additional pleasure of having them mix me a martini, which is normally the price of my listening to their trivial problems.
‘Why do I want to turn the channel to watch some cute gussied-up harlots with great shoes who drink too much and complain a lot? I can go to any number of friends’ houses and watch the exact same thing,’
Heck, for that matter, I can look in the MIRROR.
Note to mikey’s self preservation list…
Avoid RE agents, car salesmen AND “some cute gussied-up harlots with great shoes who drink too much and complain a lot”
..as they can ALL be dangerous to your bankbook, health and happy lifestyle
Cute? Sarah Jessica Parker……………nah!
Sadly enough, I have.
However, that’s fantasy but I guess it’s too much to expect people to distinguish between fantasy and reality. The average person cannot afford Jimmy Choo’s and five-star resorts.
Yes, but the people who think Sex and the City reflect real life are the same ones who think a crime can be solved in 60 minutes - without ever getting your hands dirty (a la CSI, etc.).
I, personally, enjoy SATC but wouldn’t ever expect to afford the fashion (nor care for it, actually).
“These expectations are ridiculous.”
I have a similar situation right now. I have a group of friends that is pissed at me because I do not want to pay for the groom to go to Vegas. I am already spending $600 for airfare and I have yet to rent the tux, get a car, hotel, and food etc.
I agree that it’s getting out of control. Another HGTV fantasy gone haywire.
Unless it’s a really close friend, I just say no.
Tack on an extra $50 in order to buy a fancier present, and be done with the whole deal.
My oldest daughter thought I should buy a $200 dress for her sister’s wedding. The daughter getting marriedf thouht my $15 dress from Walmart was fine. We got suits for my husband and son at thrift stores. They are in the wedding. Once again that was fine with the sister.
We’ve been shopping the thrifts for years. We get brand name clothes for 1/4 to 1/3 of retail. My kids call the thrift stores the boutiques. Charlotte Russe, Wet Seal, Foverever 21 and other stores donate to the thrifts. It’s alot more fun and it goes to good causes like cerebal palsy and Children’s Hospital.
“She insists that the entire bridal party — especially the maid of honor — is expected to attend all parties and shell out for a gift each time.”
What a load of crap. This whole article was/is disgusting.
I hate to say it, but it’s “princess syndrome”. The idea is that “this is MY special time, and it’s all about ME . . . and I’M worth it . . . ” and if you’re not on board, you’re either trying to “steal my thunder” or “you’re not really my friend”
sorry, just needed to vent a little . . . weddings are just another way to keep up with the joneses . . . so tired of having engagement rings shoved in peoples faces — who cares about the size of your ring, you showoff! Whatever happened to “becoming modesty”?
I loved my friend’s wedding…her immediate family, his immediate family, their two best friends on a beach in the Islands..
She wore a simple dress, he did the same casual, all of us with our feet in the sand..parents split the bill for everyone and we all had the best time..it was a all inclusive resort..we all stayed for the week..well worth the cost for both families and no hassles..
The whole family agreed it was MUCH cheaper than going through all that planning and inviting guests for a year just to have a 4 hour party and everyone got a week’s vacation out of it..
I would recommend the same for my kids..keep it simple stupid..
Bridezilla!
We got married in a “wedding chapel” in San Diego gaslight district. I think it cost $30.
I’ve noticed a trend of couples having small, formal family ceremonies and then blowout-cans-of-bud-wear-your-flip-flops receptions in parks and whatnot.
We got married at the courthouse. No fancy reception … but we did have small party back in Bangkok where we invited our friends and relatives, and we specifically asked them not to bring presents.
Courthouse wedding in with a one eyed judge for us (not kidding).
In 1962 my father’s youngest sister was getting married, he looked at me and said “Elope.” So I did.
God I love my wife more by the minute. She was all about going cheap for our wedding. No pro photographer, cheap venue in the country, $100 dress for her, lots of friends and nothing fancy. Best time ever.
“That’s not true,” claims Kim Bohnert, a 32-year-old teacher in San Francisco. She’s served nine stints as maid of honor and considers herself an expert bridesmaid.
She insists that the entire bridal party — especially the maid of honor — is expected to attend all parties and shell out for a gift each time.”
This lady is suffering from cognitive dissonance. She can’t stand to be told she’s wrong, that MOH’s do need to attend all functions because evidently she’s now broke from her buying! LOL
Evidently she’s also clueless to the fact that this is all Hallmark / consumer driven. Why the heck would anyone need more than one or two showers anyway? (Work one, family and friends one).
This is why we need to legalize Gay marriage and fast, to supply us in the wedding Industry with more new customers to offset the declining heterosexual market….
I cant believe a good republican would be against creating and keeping JOBS in America!
—————————————–
An economic angle, , anything related to the wedding industrial complex,
good point. I don’t think the vast majority of people are really opposed to that.
I heard a report on NPR that the CA Tourism Board is all excited about gay marriage, and they predict it will bring in a lot of tourist $$$! Maybe states will start wanting gay marriage, like they have casino gambling, etc, as a way of balancing the budget!
Both Barack Hussein Obama and John McCain are opposed to same-sex marriage. To his credit, though McCain differs from the usual Republican party line by not supporting amending the US Constitution to prevent it. (Remember when Bush I wanted to amend the Constitution to stop Flag Burning! I think the Republicans have matured a bit.)
California will probably get legal Same-Sex marriages on 6/16, when I plan to go get married again! (I was married in San Francisco in March, 2005. In fact, it was on the CBS Evening news!) But in November there will be a CA State Constitutional Ammendment to make it illegal in CA again.
In CA, only a simple majority is required to amend the state Constitution. It sort of negates the point of a Constitution…to protect the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.
One unfair things, that only Federal recognition of same-sex marriage will solve–is the fact that unmarried people can’t designate a non-spouse for SS survivor’s benefits. Sure, it’s not much, but I’ve been paying the MAXIMUM in to the SS system since 1984, and I don’t get the full benefits. And Barack Hussein Osama wants to uncap SS and still keep my benefits capped.
That’s why I’m voting for McCain. I’ll be oppressed less under him! It’s hard to make your typical liberal knee-jerk nellie from San Francisco understand this.
You’ll vote for McCain because of the gay marriage issue? great, thanks for drinking the Rove kookaid.
No, I’m voting for McCain because he doesn’t want to take 65 cents out of every dollar I earn.
“No, I’m voting for McCain because he doesn’t want to take 65 cents out of every dollar I earn.”
Instead McCain will take it from our children grandchildren in the form of a depreciating dollar and insurmountable national debt. But don’t you worry, he’ll blithely spend every cent Barack Hussein Obama will.
I guess if you don’t have children…who cares, right?
And if he doesn’t support a constitutional gay marriage ban, but he’ll gladly appoint Supreme court judges who will make such an amendment unneccessary.
But hey, I’m sure you’ll have lots of interesting dinner party conversations convincing your buddies that voting with the Fundamentalist Christians and Wall St. bankers is absolutely in their best interests.
Right. He wants to take 85cents out of every dollar you’ll earn in 10 years and your children for their lifetimes.
borrow & spend
“No, I’m voting for McCain because he doesn’t want to take 65 cents out of every dollar I earn.”
If we don’t do something now to reduce the deficit, in ten years, it *will* be 65 cents out of every dollar.
Restoring income taxes to the level they were at during the Clinton years seems like a small price to pay.
Fine. Then take 65 cents out of EVERYONE’S dollar. Not just mine.
I’m gay, and don’t care what the candidates think about it. I have no desire to get married to anyone, and my children all have four legs and have been spayed or neutered, so I’ve never had to worry about “sending them the wrong message.” They’ve turned out very well for children raised by a single parent.
However, since Mr. and Mrs.Obama are avid supporters of partial birth abortion, there is no chance in the proverbial hell that I would give them my vote. That doesn’t mean I’ll vote for McCain, but I really draw the line at cruelty to human or animal children. If I find out McCain hunts for fun, he’ll be off the list forever. He says he does not have a gun, so for the moment I’m assuming he isn’t a “sportsman” (translation: animal-killer).
Now that Obama is promising to lower the oceans in his first term (I live on a bay, and haven’t noticed the water rising even a fraction of an inch in the past twenty years), maybe I’ll be able to sashay to the Virgin Islands, thereby proving my impeccable morality.
Incidentally, what does one wear to a gay wedding? I hope not those godawful red ribbons and Birkenstocks.
I feel more oppressed by George Bush than I did by Clinton, or George Bush I. Nobody’s forcing you to marry a gay man. That you think allowing gay marriage “oppresses” you is patently ridiculous.
Meanwhile, in the real world, the one that Rove and company don’t want you to pay atttention to, the everyday conversations of Americans via phones, email, and post are recorded, cameras are popping up on every corner, and surveillance satellites are being used to assist local law enforcement as and the police state draws ever nearer.
You didn’t read my post. I’m a gay man. In a same-sex marriage. And I think I will be less “oppressed” under McCain
indeed. people just have no idea what’s coming down the pike.
I never figured out why lawyers didn’t support gay marriage. Isn’t divorce-lawyering super lucrative?
I was told by a lawyer that it’s really not, and that he hated it because it created more ill will than anything because one side thinks you didn’t do enough, and the other side hates your guts. It’s a break even/lose scenario.
It’s beyond horrible. There isn’t enough money to get me to do that.
TXck & vmlinux,
did you know that from an insurance standpoint, divorce lawyers are the most expensive to cover for liability, WC and E&O?
They get lawsuits, threats, etc from both parties. No one is happy in this situation. Its like the police do not want to get involved in family disputes.
“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”
Author, not known by me.
My divorce attorney ended up with more money from me than she got for me.
That sounds like the least fun kind of lawyering.
there’s a certain twisted type of personality who likes to do it.
A law firm here who will go unnamed who was representing Martina Navratilova in her “palimony” suit with some cookie even charged her for the air conditioning bill in his office.
“It’s beyond horrible. There isn’t enough money to get me to do that.”
Amen to that! I took one once for the daughter of my spouse’s boss, the oil man. The only thing uncontested in these things is the fact that they HATE each other. They all say it will be “amicable” UNTIL you talk money, kids or the family cat. Then “uncontested” becomes VICIOUSLY contested.
Never took another one. She ended up on the positive side, but it sure as hell was painful getting there.
Any kind of lawyering, you get to see just how stupid people are.
Any kind of lawyering, you get to see just how stupid people are.
And delivering pizza. I really liked delivering pizza though, especially during the summer and new years eve. On a good new years eve I could bring home a 12 pack in tips.
Once I went to this really, really nice house with about 5 girls and 3 guys hanging out and swimming, I guess the parents were out of town. I hung out and drank a beer with them for a few minutes. One of the girls ran out as I was about to leave and invited me to come back when I get off. That was easily the nicest house I have ever been in before or since, and one of the nicest looking girls I had seen also.
The best job I ever had.
Bluprint, tell the truth! That is a scene from an adult film.
Perhaps it could have been…
I was 19. My girlfriend (now wife) was in the northeast as a nanny. We hadn’t been dating long at that time so…
Anyway, the end of the story isn’t so much out of a movie. I didn’t go back to the house (although I DID have to think real, real hard about it). I was serious about my gf, even though at the time it was a bit difficult to remember why (she had been gone over a month, which at 19 might as well have been 10 years).
“And delivering pizza. I really liked delivering pizza though, especially during the summer and new years eve. On a good new years eve I could bring home a 12 pack in tips.T he best job I ever had.”
So, new data. Pizza delivery man (’90’s-’00’s = milkman ’40’s-’50s?)
Are you SURE that was why you got good tips?
Lost a post…
Anyway, the story doesn’t end like a movie. My girlfriend and I had been dating for maybe 6 months. She was in the northeast (CT) as a nanny and had been gone over a month. I was 19, so she may as well have been gone for 10 years.
Anyway, I was kinda serious about the girl, although after having been gone so long I had to REALLY think to remember why. Anyway, I decided not to go back to the house. A few years later I married the girl. We will be celebrating 10 years on Friday.
I’ve been happily married for 10 years, and we’ve been together longer than that. I wouldn’t change a thing, but man it would have been nice if, say, we had met at the end of that summer instead…
Our future economic situation, reports from “ground zero”.
Florida at the Precipice of Depression
I was going to call this “Banks March Us Into Depression,” or maybe more fitting is . . . “Complete Collapse of US Banking System.” Folks, that is what we are looking at. I don’t see any way around it. What we’re seeing here in Florida, is your crystal ball. And what happens here, is coming to a town near you . . . soon.
Mike Morgan, J.D., CRS, GRI
Stuart, FL
http://activerain.com/blogsview/538147/Florida-at-the-Precipice
Sorry, if a repeat!
I think Mike has missed one very important way out of this, we need to have a massive effort on hiring every smart person available to solve these problems. I see massive underemployment, and massive rejecting of smart people because we are overqualified, and can think out side the box.
=====================================
I listen to people that I fear are on the verge of suicide. I read about people committing crimes simply to put food on the table. Spend a week with me, and you’ll understand why there is no feasible way to avoid a Depression.
“we need to have a massive effort on hiring every smart person available to solve these problems. ”
Oh, I see, like a “Brain Trust”?? LOL
Considering we have a Moron trust operating today, a Brain trust seems the most RADICAL idea yet!
–
What’s On Sale? In local supermarkets meats, wines, juices, milk, etc. Outside of a Mexican market they were selling, outdoors, freshly made soft tacos will all condiments for $1. I recall some 15-20 years ago I bought similar tacos in Tijuana for 50c. So, adjusted for inflation you can buy tacos at the same price as in Tijuana.
What Is For Dinner? Homemade. The parking spaces outside the Chinese buffet, where I go for take out on some Saturdays, and Pizza (Take N Bake) were all empty. In every restaurant I notice less people. My BBQ guests from Rosamond Sky Park said that their local joint, Cantina (Mexican), is nearly dead (it used to be very busy). Things are very noticeable around here.
Jas
Restaurants are very unbusy over here as well. And the change is noticeable from week to week. I am waiting to see which chain placw will be the first to close.
The low-to-moderate priced chain restaurant we went to was busy but not full Saturday evening. That’s even getting there at 5 PM so we could eat and still get home in time to watch the Belmont (I wish I coulda placed a bet on Big Brown not finishing in the money).
Sunday we took some friends out on the lake on our pontoon boat. The waters were quite busy with lotsa boats and PWCs.
The overall economy is softening here, but not yet approaching the desperation phase.
RE: The waters were quite busy with lotsa boats and PWCs.
My family has an intergenerational cottage on a Maine peninsula below Brunswick.
14 miles down is the one small convenience store with the only pair of gaz pumps to fill small boats tanks, the lawnmower can, or a car with a gauge on empty. Been in business for years and years.
It’s the way station for cold beer, morning coffee, a sandwich, pizza, the local paper, and gasoline.
So this weekend the jug for the lawnmower is empty. So off to Moe’s I go. Pull into the parking area, and I notice bags over the pump handles.
So I go in to the clerk. Got gas?
Nope.
Are you going to get gas?
Nope.
Why are you not going to get gas?
Pumps are only calibrated to register to $3.99. Owner says too much money for a new set of pumps, plus the cost of hauling, the cash reserves needed to fill the tank, the security against thieves…he’s all done sellin’ gas.
So I gotta drive 30 miles to fill my gallon jug here?
Yup-you, best be gettin’ up the road.
So…no local gas in Harpswell, Maine. And I figure if it’s happenin’ to this small proprietor, there’s gotta be hundreds right behind him. It was a disconcerting exchange.
Life is changing, and not necessarily for the better.
What’s funny is to watch the boyz get all worked up about increases in sales at McDonald’s - like they are today.
Of course their sales are strong - they’re robbing customers from Applebee’s et.al. The situation is changing rapidly, a heck of a lot of people can’t or won’t cook for themselves - so their first reaction is to keeping eating out - except at cheaper establishments.
Now, when McDonald’s starts to suffer - that’ll be the next leg down. Right now, however, it is not a cause for rejoicing.
I suspect that fast food restaurants and dinning out is the primary cause of the health problems in this country. Until this problem is corrected, health care can’t.
PS: PE needs to re instituted, starting in the schools.
imho
Data correlation is not causation.
You could equally blame the rise of “diet” soft-drinks, with zero calories.
The sad fact is that today’s children aren’t allowed beyond the front fence, as a result of parental fears of paedophiles etc.
The total lack of the ability to run around with the neighbourhood kids, riding you bike everywhere, billy-cart races, consequent bruises and injuries, means that our “cotton-wool” kids are fat kids.
Or am I also confusing correlation with causation?
Restauranteuring is a very bad business to be in right now, unless you are an institution or have a very low overhead.
One of the supermarkets in my area sent out a bunch of $10 coupons when they had their “grand opening.” I discovered that while I was a little rusty, I can still go to the register knowing how much I owe within about $2 without writing anything down (you needed to spend $50 to use the coupon, so I’ve been stocking up a bit on items that never go on sale or that happen to be on sale).
When I was unemployed (its been a few years now), I could get within $0.50.
The grand opening means they now have the organic produce in a “special” section of the produce area, in the middle, with rustic flooring and artfully arranged wooden crates instead of regular stands or chill cases. If I’m going to pay that much for a tomato, I can get it at the farmer’s market, numbskull.
Also, the cheep flowers that they florists rejected are much more prominently displayed. They are really trying to push the impulse purchases.
Bookstore is no better..lots of people sitting on the floor and in chairs reading, but little to no purchasing on a saturday night..the attached Starbucks had 4 people working for the 3 people in line..dead too..
AMC just did away with “student” discounts now for the movies..son and daughter went to the movies this weekend…$20 for them to see a movie, during the day! Had my daughter do the usual candy/soda in the purse..figured if they had bought food too..the total cost would have be $40…
Next time, tell them to go before noon on Fri, Sat, or Sun, or on a holiday. Most AMC theaters only charge $5 per ticket for all shows before noon on those days.
Here’s something I’ve wondered about. Would our economy be OK today if everything was the same except there was no R-E bubble? Is the fact that nobody has any savings, and huge numbers of people were living off of borrowed money he one and only cause of today’s problems?
Again, it’s truly sad that the true victims of the housing bubble–including victims of increased crime (as well as folks whose fixed incomes from a lifetime of savings are dwindling thanks to low interest rates, etc.)–are not noticed by anyone. None of the Presidential candidates seems to care about innocent people who are suffering.
My feeling FWIW is that without the housing bubble, the US would have been forced to deal with its economic imbalances after the collapse of the dot-com bubble. The 2001 recession would have been longer and more severe, but just maybe the country would have been on the path to a sustainable economy by now.
But it would have been impossible to do that while fighting a costly and prolonged war in the Mideast.
The housing bubble masked the fallout from the dot-com bubble until it too collapsed. And that’s the end. Not only was the housing bubble the largest possible bubble, but no other bubble could put money in the pocket of the US consumer. Game over.
It’s interesting (and don’t take this as a comment for or against the merits of the war) that consumers have more outstanding debt on their credit cards than the total cost of the war.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G19/Current/
There’s about 2.5 Trillon dollars in outstanding consumer credit, about 1 Trillion of this revolving.
What ever happened to people pulling together in time of war? It’s unbelievable that the highest priority of Americans after 9/11 is to buy imported crap with borrowed money.
In case no one told you we are not in the time of War. What ever is happening has more to do with corporate scam than war and people instinctively know that.
Tell the troops that we’re not at war. I’m sure they’ll love to hear that their 4th tour of duty is due to a corporate scam. Of course, the military is the only sector in the US that has had to sacrifice for our misadventure abroad.
Maybe your choice of words “misadventure” is more comforting?
I notice the confusion between being “at war” and being “in a time of war.” Don’t get sucked in by the Orwellian framing!
We haven’t been “at war” — Constitutionally — since 1945.
I think we all know the difference between an invasion and a war (now).
What ever happened to people pulling together in time of war?
Because the “War on Terror” is not a real war…It’s an ideology that was sold to the American people under the cloak of fear….Just like the “war on drugs”…
War Czar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_cheney
Drug Czar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director_of_the_Office_of_National_Drug_Control_Policy
Knowledge Czar The lll :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rush_Limbaugh
We have a 9 trillion budget dollar deficit. And that just the counted money. The true costs of the Iraq debacle are not even on the books.
I was really worried about crime about a year ago, but I see Pinellas County getting better. I wish I could explain it, but I can’t. Maybe every one is leaving?
I feel safer and I don’t see as much crazy driving and crimes in broad daylight.
“I would like to know what future scenarios keep people here potentially awake at night.”
All my nightmares are taxes, public services and benefits related.
After all, most of those posting on this blog are in a decent place personally — happy with a modest level of personal consumption, not going deeper into debt because they “need” what Madision Avenue says they need, etc.
Yet state and local governments have been going deeper and deeper into debt, and awarding rich pension benefits while not funding them, on “our” behalf. So what will happen to the kids schools, and what will be left for the grandkids education? What will happen to the park I spend time in? How high will taxes go.
How about all those who lived high, HELOCked and drained the 401K. At the federal level, who will they be coming after to live in the style to which they have become accustomed. Will I be declared ineligable for Medicare and Social Security because I have saved rather than spent?
Speaking of savings, what will be the value of that currency I have in common with the sheeple?
I don’t worry about unemployment, however. In the long run, those in my generation and after (born 1958 or so and after) will have to work until we drop. The question is what if anything we will get for our toil.
How about all those who lived high, HELOCked and drained the 401K. At the federal level, who will they be coming after to live in the style to which they have become accustomed. Will I be declared ineligable for Medicare and Social Security because I have saved rather than spent?
Absolutely!
Democrats have talked about means-testing Social Security to “save it”. I think we’ll easily see the situation where people who have saved today’s equivalent of $3M or so will be NO BETTER OFF than people who saved nothing for retirement because they will be deemed “to rich” to qualify for Social Security, Medicare. While the people who saved nothing will get all this, plus housing assistance, food stamps, etc. The $90K/year you’ll be able to generate from your $3M (because interest rates are kept low to help specu-vestors) won’t be worth as much as the benefits penniless people will get.
How would “they” know if I saved $3m? Some of my assets are not where the Demo socialists can find them.
Yes, but that’s working outside the law. It’s a shame people feel forced to do that.
And they’re cracking down even more! Over the past few years, laws have been passed making it a crime not to report the existence of a foreign bank account with more than $10,000 in it.
http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/article/0,,id=159757,00.html
You used to just be able to report the interest earned, but you didn’t have to furnish specifics about the particular bank account.
I suppose you can legally store wealth in physical gold bouillon, but it’s difficult to manage large quantities of it safely and securely.
Next to violent crime, your topic is my next largest concern. The lurking issues of state/local finances and unfunded benefit and pension obligations should really be a larger part of national discussion on RE.
Come on you “saavy” buyers sitting on the fence - if you buy something you’re going to be paying for this mess. The more you buy, the more you’ll pay. Just because the agents never seem to bring up the subject of property taxes doesn’t mean buyers shouldn’t give them a lot of thought!
WT Economist, Aside from the public pension funding, I believe massive changes on the upside are in store once health insurance administration functions are offloaded from employers(public and private) and onto a national system. Once that happens, full funding of pensions will be possible without raising property taxes.
Can you elaborate a little?? I just don’t see how that could be.
Seems to me even if property taxes didn’t rise, that federal taxes or borrowing to pay for it would. Also don’t see how looking to gubmint as an “administrator” could ever be a good thing.
Why can’t it be? Private and public employers offload health insurance obligations freeing up capital.
I think the worn out message of “be cynical, your government won’t do anything for your tax contributions” has gotten the best of you. The “rotten govt” seemed to build railroads, airports and highways on a national scale quite efficiently. Who had/has the resources to do something of the size and scope of those tasks? Nobody.
Railroads?? LOL! Lincoln authorized a massive giveaway of public lands to private companies to build railroads to nowhere, and plenty of them failed. I wouldn’t use railroad building as an example of govt efficiency.
I wouldn’t use railroad building as an example of govt efficiency. And you have a better solution than the one that actually worked? Of course lots of railroads failed. Lots of them succeeded. The transportation links were built, commercial traffic boomed, homesteaders moved out to the boonies by the lakh, and the West was settled. Wouldn’t have happened without government intervention.
The giveaway was precisely the incentive. So what would have happened if the govt. hadn’t sweetened the pot? I have a pretty good idea.
I heard an interesting point today on NPR. The guy was talking about fuel effeciency and mentioned the federal highway system. His point was that perhaps the interstate system has helped lead to increased gas usage by “subsidizing” driving longer distances to work instead of living near working centers.
It’s an interesting point and helps to illustrate how many “anti-gubment” feelings aren’t necessarily about whether they have completed a particular task well. It may be that they were very effective at building roads (that’s debatable, but for the sake of argument…) but just because they passed the test of “can you build a road well” doesn’t mean that, in net, resources were effectively distributed. It may be that we SHOULDN’T HAVE the highways. So if they effectively did something which had a net negative effect, you don’t get points for that.
Oh my word. Now you’re suggesting we shouldn’t have built the interstate highway system? Your ideology is blinding you.
No, I was just trying to generate a bit of critical thinking and perhaps interesting conversation about some larger stuff. I happen to like the interstates. But I’m willing to consider the possibility that my likes shouldn’t determine what we do.
I guess I forgot who I was talking to for a moment. Apologies.
Yes you forgot that there is a growing number of people who can’t be blinded by worn out rhetoric.
Seems to me, Montana, that your example indicated a failure of private industry, not government.
If government gave public land to private enterprise and tons of them failed (with a subsidy of free land I might add) then surely your argument (logically) would be that government should step in to do a better job?
People don’t handle free stuff very well, they tend to squander it. As an example, see lottery winners and receivers of overly cheap credit (banks who then lend it recklessly).
The land was being managed by gubmint, they managed it terribly (if NIM is to be believed, which I don’t know anything about but which you are apparently also in agreement with, that the railroad projects failed).
That IS the only way out for public services — have the federal government take over health care finance. I’m in favor but…
…count on the public employee unions to fight it, as they would end up in the same situation as everyone else.
I don’t see how raising taxes for national health insurance will somehow offset the costs of taxes needed to sustain pension plans. Either way, you’re out of that money.
Just take a look over the border at Canada. Government overhead costs to run a health care system will be horribly expensive, unless steps are taken to decrease inappropriate use of health care and the costs of defensive medicine.
Taxes are taxes, and health care ain’t free.
Just take a look over the border at Canada. Government overhead costs to run a health care system will be horribly expensive
Total BS. Canada spends 10% of GDP on health care, the US 15%. That’s total public & private for both countries.
Here’s another stat for you: US taxpayers pay more taxes to pay for health care, per capita. than Canadians do. By per capita I mean per taxpayer, not per person getting government health care. Yes you read that right.
The US health care boondoggle (it hardly deserves to be called a system) has by far the higher overhead costs of any country, which is the primary reason it is so expensive.
You get what you pay for, which is why Canadians in need come to America for healthcare.
Yogurt, your analysis is very simplistic and smacks of an overdose of Hillary campaign flyers. I work in the health care field: I lived in Quebec for 4 years and in Alaska for 5, and have had both personal and professional experiences as a provider and patient on both sides of the border.
Canadians pay less per capita in health care costs, and they also pay less per patient. A lot of the savings comes from having very low malpractice and litigation overhead, lower drug costs, and a much lower investment in healthcare infrastructure.
Defensive medicine is what eats up the American health care dollar. In HIllaryland, lawyers will still get to parasitize the system. Ambulance chasers are virtually non-existent in Canada.
The studies trumpeting the superiority of Canadian health care never factor in the morbidity of long waiting lines, outdated treatments and equipment, fewer outpatient services, and the frequent strikes and walkouts by health care personnel.
The system there has been too overutilized by the “worried well” and chronic illness that gets poor outpatient care. Cdn medicare is perpetually teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, many of their health providers have left the country (to work here), and they have had to introduce co-pays, even in Alberta.
How much does that cost society? No one can put a number on it, but drinking Koolaid about “free” healthcare seems to never include these numbers in Hillaryland.
And their outcomes aren’t necessarily better. Factor that into your thinking as well.
You get what you pay for, which is why Canadians in need come to America for healthcare.
Funny I’ve never met one. Who told you about that, Rush Limbaugh? Well he knows all about doctor shopping, doesn’t he.
good comments NoSingleOne
i’ve seen both sides too. neither is perfect, that’s for sure.
Public pensions - at federal, state and local levels - are going to transfer so much wealth from privately-employed taxpayers in future years. Really - if you don’t have a public pension, you need to step up your earnings to make up for this in the future.
If you think property taxes (and your state/federal taxes, for that matter) are bad now - just wait a couple decades.
With the federal debt AND pension obligations AND an aging society - it’s going to be mightly ugly for Joe and Jane Six Pack (and even Mike and Mary Merlot) down the road.
Will I be declared ineligable for Medicare and Social Security because I have saved rather than spent?
You can bet your last devalued dollar on it W T…I believe “means testing” will be the governments (at all levels) revenue solution for many things…
I predicted that Social Security will go in one of two directions:
The Democratic alternative — screw those who saved, since they are now “rich.”
The Republican alternative — screw working couples, by only paying out on one spouse’s contributions. The wife should have stayed home with the kids.
Behind curtain #3 is requiring workers to work longer.
They’ll put more $ into the system and draw less out.
If the republican version shows up, legally divorce before starting SS and become roommates. I’d do it!
That’s why it won’t happen. That all happened before..
Thats a dam good idea….Now, I wonder what kind of drug I am going to need to use on the Mrs. to get her on board ?
The Republican alternative — screw working couples, by only paying out on one spouse’s contributions. The wife should have stayed home with the kids.
Correction: The “Republican alternative” is typically A.) screw the citizenry, we’ll let our vulpine corporate cronies suck them dry as we “privatize” and “incentivize” everything in sight, or B.) screw the citizenry, we believe everyone should pull themselves up by the bootstraps (except for oilmen, mercenaries and investment bankers, natch).
My concerns are much the same. We are in decent shape, but we realize that things could get bad down the road. Once we get the house paid off we will be in good shape.
Long time lurker…
but I wanted to add that the unplanned pregnancy really hits home.
My wife and I have one very young bambino and planned on having another…next year. The plan was for me to start law school at night this fall, but, an earlier than planned for baby has put that dream on hold for at least another year, and probably two.
And I was so hoping to time the law school during recession so that I would finish school in time for both the first wave of retiring boomer lawyers to want out and hiring post slump to pick up!
I was so hoping to time the law school during recession so that I would finish school in time for both the first wave of retiring boomer lawyers to want out and hiring post slump to pick up!
http://www.jdunderground.com/forum.php
Lot’s of embittered rantings, but trust me–a word to the wise should be sufficient.
If I had to do it over, it would be accounting or computer science, teaching or nursing.
People always think lawyers have the world by the ass. They’re happy when they finally have a bunch of associates doing their work for them
The National Law Journal ran a survey about atty lifestyles and attitides toward their jobs back in the early 90s — right around the same time I graduated — and the results were, to put it mildly, shocking. For starters, the admitted alcoholism rate was something approaching 4X the national average. I doubt that number has changed much during the intervening 15 years and since the survey methodology relied on self-identified alcoholic traits, the number of those in outright denial or who inhabit the realm of high functioning alcoholism (people who claim that it hasn’t affected their practice) would boost this figure somewhat higher, IMO.
The coup de grace, however, was the question “would you recommend law as a career to your children?” I’d have to look up the exact perentage, but I believe only around 15% of the respondents answered yes. I’m kind of surprised it was that high.
The question is…..how many of them were alcoholics BEFORE they went to Law School?
My experience is that the druggies/alcoholics gravitate to areas where drug testing is not required.
Congratulations on the happy surprise.
My husband and I (both lawyers) begged a half-dozen friends and relatives to forgo law school and do something else. No one listened to us. All are now miserable. The law career thing sucks, and law school is so overpriced. Just my 2 cents.
Here’s my advice to you. Go ahead and go as soon as you can. Specialize in criminal law. Once you get out, hustle and take appointments from the judges. You will eventually get to the point that you can work for yourself with nothing but a laptop.
Some of the coolest and funniest people I’ve ever met were criminal lawyers.
My sister in law does criminal defense work and is miserable, but she started out as one of those bleeding-heart types who always felt that the guy wasn’t really guilty, or being poor made up for his crappy choices, or whatever. Now she is all jaded & bitter, and I like hanging out with her more.
RE: unplanned pregnancy
Uh, oh…
Quarter $$$,$$$ mil on the debit side-not counting college costs.
But that’s ok.
My kids were the best thing in the world that ever happened to me.
“Crime, crime, and more crime.”
Having been born and raised in a big city, I’ve long wrestled with both the advantages and disadvantages. Growing up, the kitchen table topics often included the harsh and unpopular realities of city living. So, today when I see people tying themselves down with $250k - $500k condos and $600k-$900k SFH all around me I am left puzzled. What do they know that I don’t? Where do they get the faith to make such huge purchases?
American cities are okay in many respects, but IMHO, only when they are affordable. My city was once affordable, and it had plenty of employment opportunities that helped raise many families. Today, however, the prices do not reflect the risks. The veneer of civility upon which this place depends is thin, and prices used to reflect that and once helped offset the risks.
So what gnaws at me? That this increasingly out of balance place implodes and that those I care about get caught up in it. Other than that, the thought of a bunch of yuppies losing their shirts on RE would be worth the price of becoming a refugee - there’s too much to see in this world anyhow. (parents: take those kiddies on plenty of travels - real travels - not theme parks and cruises)
“real travels - not theme parks and cruises)”
Amen to that. The things I remember are the real places, the beaches, the mountains, the desert, live music, and what plays I saw. I loved theme parks at the time but they all just leave an empty saccharine taste for me now. Waste of time.
RE: American cities are okay in many respects,
If American cities are so fookin’ cool and sophisticated then WTF don’t these people stay home on weekends and stop clogging the roads and highways to all the beaches, lakes, and mountains
located in all the rural north country “Hicksvilles”.
And the people from Hicksville go to the cities. You’re ignoring the psychology. We want what we can’t have.
June 9 (Bloomberg) — Sky-high gasoline prices aren’t just raising the cost of Eugene Marino’s 120-mile (193-kilometer) round-trip to his job in the Washington area. They’re reducing his wealth, too.
House prices in his rural subdivision beyond the Blue Ridge Mountains in Charles Town, West Virginia, have plunged as commuting expenses have soared. A four-bedroom home down the street from his is listed for $239,000, after selling new for $360,000 five years ago.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4kOXcpI3dQg&refer=home
120 miles daily?
I’d just slit my wrists and be done with it.
My dad did 130 mile round trip for a long time when I was a kid. He did it to keep us in a 1400 sq ft house in the same town as my grandparents and lots of relatives rather than to afford a big house, but it was doable since he left early enough to beat most of the traffic on the way to work (going home was hit or miss) and that still allowed him time to make and eat breakfast with us. Natioanl public radio is your friend in those circumstances. He could make it to the office in barely over an hour.
In the DC area, there is almost no such thing as early enough to beat the traffic. That is a 2 hour or more commute any way you slice it. Very nasty.
But if you can work from home several days a week, and drive a company car….the country beats the city/suburbs hands down.
That’s an opinion not a fact.
How many days a week do you enjoy the “country”? And how many days a week do you commute?
The ratio of those two pretty much determines which one you should pick.
If you can do your job from your computer in your home in the exurbs, then Apu can do your job from his computer from his home in Mumbai.
One thing that puzzles me on this otherwise astute board is how some folks reflexively lash out at the country/exburbs/ect., as if there existence is an afront to them and all civilized society.
I enjoy having no light pollution, opening my windows and hearing nothing but the sounds of nature, watching my horses graze in my back yard. Yes, my preference for the country is just an opinion….I guess I missed where I stated that where anyone could think I was stating fact?
As far as my employment, it relatively safe from export as face to face meetings are key to what I do, but the report writing does not require my physical presence in the office.
sounds nice. I like clean air and the ability to see stars at night. Lived in a small town once. But the jobs, pay, and opportunities (not just monetary) in large cities proved so much better than being in a small town. Next year I’m turning 50. I have a terrible aim. If I had to depend on myself to protect my back 40 with guns and ammo, I’d be dead in an instant. Better to depend on city police in an urban area. In both my Maryland and Phoenix locations, police substations are within 1/4 mile of where my apartments are.
Bill, many of us would like to feel the same as you do. After Katrina, that sense of certainty might warrant some reexamination. You recall the police evacuated. Many left ahead of the storm. The remainder took a powder once the natives got restless. We all get a warm and fuzzy from the speedy response demonstrated, over and again, by our local police departments during normal times.
“Normal times” will not be the model at the point we are all dialing 911. The starving masses will have gotten good and fed up with having been ripped off. Their litters will have been whining. Disgusted with having burned through their fat stores, reduced to looking like a starving wet rat gringo, their mujers will have been berating them for days. They will ALL be plenty pissed.
With a generation to propagate, THERE ARE MORE OF THEM THAN THERE ARE OF YOU.
When the mob arrives in your neighborhood and begins looting, think you might be others making the same 911 calls? Which officer will rush out of the bunker to protect you?
Based on experience (mine) and observation (Katrina), I bet that the when I make MY 911 call — prolly right around the time you make yours — all circuits are busy AND there’s nobody home.
Counting on the authorities to quell the mob before it has spent its wrath qualifies us as fools. I think we need to think this one through a little more.
niche restaurants are started up by - who, doctors’ wives? Lawyers wives?
What decade are some of these commenters in? Women outnumber men as college graduates these days folks. My book club consists of 5 lawyers and 2 medical doctors - all women. Sigh… We’ve got a long way to go still it seems.
My book club consists of 5 lawyers and 2 medical doctors - all women. Sigh… We’ve got a long way to go still it seems.
Huh?
“huh?”
you’re making her point for her ; )
she means why do so many men still speak of women as “doctor’s wives” rather than as “doctors”? why is the assumption that all silly businesses are the hobbies of silly women financed by their professional spouses?
Po-leeze.
I’d have a lot more sympathy for these types of complaints if many women didn’t seem determined to have it both ways. These complaints confuse demographic reality-to say nothing of the speakers’ own rhetorical position in related circumstances-with normative statements about what men and women are, respectively, capable of.
In the mid 90s, a nominally liberated woman informed me that it was just fine that male admittees to a charity ball in San Francisco had to pay a substantial gate charge, but women did not, because, in her words, “men have all the money”.
If “men have all the money”, then it’s a perfectly permissible inference that those spouses that have the time and energy to set up high-end candle-making party shops are female. Moreover, those spouses that are likely to have access to the substantial amounts required to start a niche business are not 32 year old husbands of 33 year old lawyer wives; they are far more likely to be 64 year old wives of male senior corporate executives.
If women make 59 cents for every dollar a man makes (or 75 cents, or 81 cents or whatever the current going rate is), they are far more likely to be the ones requiring funding for niche businesses from their spouses than men.
Can you guys take this over to iVillage? Thanks.
That doesn’t logically mean that the niche businesses are run by women. That was the assumption.
I won’t be like *some people* and be judgemental about your “reading comprehension”. I know we’re all in a hurry here.
However, you do seem to be basing your arguments on one anecdote of a conversation you once had with someone, and also an assumption that since women DO make less (thanks for not denying that!) that when they are starting businesses they don’t know how to get real business loans or run a business on their own, but instead marry rich doctors and play around with candle shops.
In any case, a woman making “less” already has a full time job, and is probably not *also* starting a silly niche business that she needs to get funding for. The original comment had doctor’s funding niche restaurants for their wives. Not career women needing additional funding to start their own business.
Ah, Jill come to my former town, where female professors w/PhDs are raked over the coals for teaching a single class a week at SU. Poor mothering they say. “What does your child do while you’re away? Blink. Blink.
Ya gotta laugh: As if the tennis lessons or pedicures don’t take them away from their little precious for the same amount of time.
“Business has been extremely good at Larry’s Estate Jewelry and Pawn shop. ‘Anybody that was in the real estate market, they make up half our customers,’ said David Close, manager of the shop for 15 years. ‘It was never like this.’”
“When pawning merchandise, the seller must list his occupation. More these days, it is ‘mortgage broker’ or ‘builder’ or ‘developer.’”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! *gasp, gasp, catch my breath* HAHAHAHAHAHA!
Oh, golly, reading this just makes me so happy. I don’t even care that it’s Monday and I’ve got a mild hangover. I can’t WAIT for a similar article in my local paper. Oooh! Oooooh!
Too bad they don’t have people’s names on the pawned merchandise–then, when it happens here, I could go to the pawn shop, pick and choose amongst the realtor’s/builder’s/developers ex-jewelry for the names of the realtor’s/builder’s/developer I hate the most and then wear their pawned ex-stuff around town. Yes, yes, I know–it’d surely be tacky and tasteless jewelry, but the sheer joy and schadenfreude would make wearing it SO worth it.
I worry about drought conditions and food prices/availability. I have read a lot more recently about the potential that the west might be at the start of a long drought period - and, while I’m not personally loacted out west, I worry about the affect on my fellow Americans out there, as well as the related economic and food costs to the entire country.
On the food side of things - I found this troubling article about hedge funds investing in food assets - it honestly gave me the chills:
“Huge investment funds have already poured hundreds of billions of dollars into booming financial markets for commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans.
“Andrew J. Redleaf, head of the hedge fund Whitebox Advisors, bought several grain elevators from ConAgra and Cargill.
“But a few big private investors are starting to make bolder and longer-term bets that the world’s need for food will greatly increase — by buying farmland, fertilizer, grain elevators and shipping equipment.”
And three institutional investors, including the giant BlackRock fund group in New York, are separately planning to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in agriculture, chiefly farmland, from sub-Saharan Africa to the English countryside.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/05/business/05farm.html?_r=1&sq=food%20hedge%20fund&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&scp=1&adxnnlx=1213023707-UnRQLKJbYNLp/ldtVlAdnw
Wild stuff ahead - perhaps for us, almost certainly for future generations.
The beginnings of a long term drought at hand? Arizona has been in a drought since the mid-1990s. Nothing new. And they are still coming to AZ. Water desalinization plants (treaty between President McCain and Mexico in the next 4 years) will be put into the sea of Cortez. Problem solved.
Sorry Earnest - I should have tried to get the comment about “lawyers and doctors wives” in in italics. It seems that the original commenter still thinks that doctors and lawyers are all men who have the bored little wife at home. I was attempting to disabuse him (or her) of this notion with some facts.
My biggest fears would be violence engaged in by those seeking a scapegoat for our vanished perceived economic prerogatives, and the growth of organized criminal mafias whose power will dwarf that of government. No matter who becomes president, many of us are going to have a dramatically lower standard of living, and that won’t be acceptable, especially when people see themselves as consumers rather than citizens.
I agree that a lot of specialty businesses are dead enterprises walking. Most of them are by-products of the mantra that people should follow their “passion.”
Oh, brother. That “follow your passion” advice. I’ve seen it bankrupt a number of people among my acquaintance.
As for Yours Truly, I don’t hate what I do for a living. Not at all. But it isn’t my passion. It’s just what I do in business. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Make your passion into your living, I’ll guarantee you will come to hate it.
“and the growth of organized criminal mafias whose power will dwarf that of government.”
You mean US Banks, corporate interests and Wall Street?
I do think that Wall Street will be involved. There’s a lot of money to be made in creatively exploiting people’s desperation. Some might even call that “freedom.”
You need to add the military-intelligence complex. Without all the financial frauds and drug dealing, how could they afford their black budget toys?
““Crime, crime, and more crime. ”
I am unfortunatelly in a believer of this scenario.
The huge # of illegal and legal day laborers here in the OC is astounding. The parking lots at the local Home Depot’s are filled, and I mean filled with them. The Jobs are few and far between.
First - they ask for a job.
Second - they ask for a hand-out.
Third - they steel stuff out of your car while your shopping.
Fourth - they flat out rob you.
Right now were between second and third, and it’s quite a pickle.
I can think of a couple of local streets here in SD that are usually full of day laborers. Over the past year, I’ve noticed fewer of them standing around when I’ve driven through. I wonder if many of them have just decided to head home or someplace else with better traffic.
Unrelated, I decided to look at the crime stats for the general area I live in. Sure enough, crime has increased quite a bit. Particularly, there were lots of car break-ins and thefts. A couple of co-workers have had GPS units stolen. I guess I’m not surprised.
The police in our area recently put out a bulletin about the high number of cars being broken into for theft of the GPS units.
I had my car broken into recently for the change in my ashtray. What really pissed me off was the fact that they left the pennies behind. What? You’re not too proud to break into my car for change, but you have standards?
Why do people buy these things for? Are they really going to new places they are unfamiliar with? Maybe if you are making sales calls, but does a cubicle dweller really need one of these toys?
Same here.
Crime is going to go up. No doubt about it.
The reduced need for these Day Labor Depots with their illegal attendees will continue to put more pressure on surrounding communities once the aftermath of too-many-laborers-not-enough-labor reaches its breaking point.
Fears:
1) That I won’t ever be able to afford a home of my own (another marriage is out of the question, so there will never be dual incomes).
2) Retirement account losses.
3) Losing job (I don’t think I will, but I’d be foolish to think it would never happen).
From Phoenix Craigslist:
…”home isn’t selling, so I’m selling everything inside of value.”
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/hsh/711880464.html
Lender will enjoy getting this one back, sans tub.
The thoughts that keep me up at night:
1- I have quite a bit more saved up now than I did 10 years ago, yet it’s worth significantly less –considering how much more it takes to buy a house, gas, and food. Also considering how little interest it earns in savings. I’m not worried about my ability to save a million before I retire. I’m concerned that by the time I want to retire, a million won’t be enough.
2- I’m concerned that in the next couple years we may see banks going under. And responsible people who saved their money may lose $100,000s of hard saved money. The people who ran themselves into debt and the banks who let them go into debt can drag a whole lot of good people down with them.
“What kinds of unfolding events related to the housing bubble seem rather plausible and make people’s anxiety go up?”
I fear emotional hoards.
I fear that many groups of people will be so distraught that they’ll give up what’s good instead of simply fixing the process. During the 1930’s Depression people were more open to other forms of government feeling that it was capitalism that had failed them and not simply a collection of broken pieces w/in the system that needed to be fixed. That’s what I most fear. Plausible? I don’t know. I think I’ve seen too many people react first and ask questions later to think bad political decisions can’t happen.
This time many other nations will be watching and influencing.
“No Fear” from here. But I hate those decals on cars, especially the ones with skulls and fangs.
Economic depression? Bring it on!
Not much talk in this thread of the two-earner household revolution and its effect on the economy, housing prices, etc. I admit I haven’t had any time to research this, but my theory is that the dual-career family has had a huge impact on driving prices up, especially housing prices. When you have two incomes, naturally you feel you can afford to pay more for a house in the burbs, so why not? Ironically, many women may come to feel just as “imprisoned” by not having the choice to back down because they are locked into an expensive house, car, private schools system, etc. Not to mention that dual career households shrink the employment pool–more jobs are taken up by fewer household units, meaning more households will be underemployed in tough times.
I say this because as a working professional in an essentially one-income household, I’ve been looking at cities all over the country as relocation candidates and finding that it is quite difficult for a family making the median income of around $50K to afford a house in a great many cities, not just on the coasts. I’m talking about really affording a house in a safe middle class neighborhood, not buying a >$300K house on a zero-down ARM or some such. It’s frustrating, and I certainly gave up better (more prestigious, same salary everywhere) offers in expensive places like SD, Seattle, downtown Chicago because my wife currently chooses to stay home and work occasional contract jobs, and I don’t want to fall into a trap where we move somewhere and suddenly she doesn’t really have the choice to stay home.
You may never see this (I’m posting the day after), but check out Auburn, Alabama, a beautiful college town.
I still fail to understand why we are concerned about morons who are losing their homes because the price dropped? How does a rising price allow someone to afford a home? It implies increased debt to finance the home, which leads to higher payments which they obviously can’t make since they could not afford the lower payments.
Bring back debtors work prisons. Waterboard and hang Mozillo and Bernanke. Burn down the suburbs. Revolucion!