Florida Is A Land Of Schemers And Dreamers
The Sun Sentinel reports from Florida. “Home prices in South Florida ‘easily’ could be 20 percent to 30 percent higher by 2013, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Yun called 2008 a ‘year of cleanup’ and says the second half will be better than the first because mortgage markets are improving nationwide and across South Florida. Foreign investors and Baby Boomers will boost home sales during the rest of 2008, he said.”
“Yun said price increases could happen here again as soon as this year. A decade from now, sellers and agents will look back on this as a ’small blip on the radar screen,’ Yun said. ‘The long-term fundamentals are terrific.’”
“But real estate observers say he is overly optimistic because he works for the national Realtors’ group, whose goal is to promote home sales. ‘He does his best to present a positive spin on data that’s not based on reality or fact,’ said Delray Beach housing analyst David Levin.”
“‘There’s no definitive data that says Baby Boomers are going to choose Florida. Florida ain’t so cheap anymore,’ Levin said.”
From Reuters. “There are signs the subprime crisis may be peaking, Lawrence Yun told a meeting of real estate professionals in Coral Gables, Florida. ‘I anticipate the subprime delinquency rate to continue to rise for the rest of the year and probably into the first quarter of next year,’ Yun said.”
“The delinquency rate on subprime loans is running around 20 percent. ‘I would not be surprised if it reached even closer to 25 percent,’ he said after the speech. ‘But the pace of increase will be moderating.’”
“How much, he said, will depend largely on housing prices.”
“With U.S. housing market activity at a 10-year low, pessimistic ‘psychology’ is driving the market, said Yun, who represents the largest U.S. real estate agents group and is known for his optimism despite the worst housing downturn in generations.”
“He called Florida’s property market turmoil a ’short-term slump’ resulting in part from ‘gamblers’ speculating on real estate, and from a ’short-term oversupply.’”
“At one point during the peak of the market, Miami, a city of about 400,000 people, had 60,000 condo units in some stage of planning or construction. Thousands of those units are due to come to the market in the next 12 months.”
“‘Location, location, location is making a bigger difference than ever,’ he said, forecasting that by 2013 property owners in Miami could see price appreciation of 20 percent or more from today’s levels.”
The Miami Herald. “Some South Florida borrowers who are in default on their home loans aren’t waiting around for their lender to begin foreclosure. They have beaten their lender to the courthouse by filing lawsuits.”
“‘These [borrowers] are basically sheep among the wolves,’ said Frank J. Ingrassia, a Margate lawyer who last week filed about 25 lawsuits on behalf of the borrowers against various lenders.”
“Similar suits are being filed around the country, said Ira Rheingold of the National Association of Consumer Advocates in Washington. ‘The fact that this was so prevalent shows there was a complete design flaw in the lending process,’ Rheingold said. ‘All of these borrowers didn’t make the same mistake.’”
The Herald Tribune. “In the midst of a residential property craze, the mortgage broker - cell phone memory clogged with lenders - was the one who could make the deal happen, just by knowing which lender was hungry for a deal, which program would work for which borrower, and who could close fastest.”
‘Since the real estate boom went into reverse, the number of people claiming to be mortgage brokers has shrunk dramatically. Those left are fighting to reinvent their financial lives.”
“For six and a half years, Joe Adamaitis had a three-office mortgage broker firm based in Bradenton. He closed the doors this spring.
“‘I am losing borrowers left and right,’ Adamaitis said recently, before taking a new job in downtown Sarasota.”
“Operating as Direct Mortgage, Adamaitas said there were some loans he decided were just too risky to write, but others that he pushed through despite their implausibility.”
“‘I had young kids coming in to me trying to buy these huge homes,’ Adamaitis said. ‘I didn’t feel good about it. But if I didn’t do it, somebody else would.’”
“The relentless rise in foreclosures in Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte is still causing problems for borrowers and bankers alike. A total of 2,161 filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — entered the court systems last month. That compared with 1,934 in April and 1,432 foreclosures a year ago.”
“‘I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet,’ said Nancy Detert, a former mortgage broker running for state Senate who is pitching a ‘community downpayment assistance plan.’”
“‘We have so much empty supply,’ Detert said. ‘It is devaluing the houses owned by the rest of us and devaluing whole neighborhoods. If we took a sponge and sponged up some of the supply, we’d have more demand.’”
“First Priority Bank is certainly not the only local bank suffering from the popping of the real estate bubble and a meteoric rise in foreclosures. But First Priority has been impacted far more than its Southwest Florida peers.”
“The bank reported $33.8 million in problem loans at the end of December — nearly 17 percent of its portfolio.”
“‘If you look at the occupations of the people on the board: you have a restaurant owner, an orthodontist, a general contractor, a real estate investor,’ said John Patterson, a Sarasota attorney and First Priority shareholder. ‘They represent a good cross-section of the community, but the one thing missing is someone with real experience in banking.’”
“‘There was no one who looked hard at credit, who questioned whether the bank should expand rapidly in a bubble market, who asked tough questions about what would happen if things went wrong,’ Patterson said.”
“‘I don’t know if anyone understood the depth of where the economy was going,’ said First Priority’s chairman, Alan Zirkelbach. ‘You look at Countrywide, Bank of America, all the banks. No one understood where this was going.’”
“Rather than slowly building relationships with borrowers, First Priority became a lender of last resort, said John Strickland, Patterson’s law partner and another First Priority shareholder. The bank’s board also did not understand the depth of the crisis Southwest Florida was falling into after the summer of 2005, he said.”
“‘Florida is a land of schemers and dreamers,’ Strickland said. ‘Every time we have one of these bubbles, there are people who believe it is never going to burst.’”
The St Petersburg Times. “In eastern Hillsborough County, the news was almost universally grim for sellers: The selling prices of homes dropped in nine out of 10 areas during the first three months of the year, an analysis of county property records shows.”
“‘We probably ended up looking at over 30 homes,’ said Vickie Levings, who in April bought a home northeast of Tampa with her husband. ‘Maybe two times we saw somebody looking at or leaving another house.’”
“The Levingses’ real estate agent told them she was lucky to bring one customer a month to a house for sale.”
“In Tampa, more than most metropolitan areas in Florida, the home building industry has been fueled over the years by an expanding economy and people moving here for new jobs, says Tony Polito, Tampa Bay director of Metrostudy.”
“‘The problem is, the 10-year expectation for Tampa was annual job growth of nearly 25,000 new jobs,’ Polito wrote in Metrostudy’s first-quarter report. ‘The actual annual growth was revised to a loss of 17,300 jobs.’”
“Eric Topp bought a house in New Tampa in April. The Topps found two similar houses and initially offered $405,000 for their second choice, Topp said. The counteroffer was $430,000.”
“Then they turned to their first choice, priced at $680,000. ‘It was a corporate relo that had sat empty for two years,’ Topp said.”
“They offered $415,000, plus an argument: ‘If you don’t sell at this price, we will buy the twin house nearby and instantly reset the market price for your house.’”
“It worked, Topp said. ‘They responded the same day.’”
The Orlando Sentinel. “It’s a familiar story line that is again repeating itself in the Four Corners area: British investors who put down thousands of dollars on vacation homes that haven’t been built and end up suing the developer.”
“At least four lawsuits have been filed in Polk and Orange counties in the past year against Tierra del Sol Resort, a development that was supposed to have nearly 1,000 condos and town homes. Buyers are suing for about $200,000 in deposits, plus legal fees. Others are demanding the developer build the homes for the original purchase price.”
“The homes of David and Sandra Clayton, who currently live near Amsterdam, were supposed to be built by 2007, a year longer than initially promised, their attorney, Matt Firestone, said.”
“After putting about $130,000 down for a condo and town house, the British couple filed a lawsuit in Polk County after Tierra del Sol also hiked the prices for proposed homes, Firestone said. The couple want their deposit, plus damages.”
“Clayton said he and his wife planned for a busy retirement, traveling after being frugal most of their life. They invested most of their money on Tierra del Sol and planned to rent their homes, he said.”
“‘We’ve spent a lot of sleepless nights talking about it and worrying about it,’ said David Clayton. ‘We expected a comfortable retirement.’”
“At least two other developments aimed mostly at British investors have foundered as the wave of real-estate speculation broke.”
The South Florida Business Journal. “A Florida appeals court has upheld a ruling in a precedent-setting lawsuit against Marina Grande Associates, a condo development company in Riviera Beach. The 4th District Court of Appeal has affirmed that buyers cannot cancel condo purchase contracts for rising insurance and utility costs, or for minimal increase in other costs.”
“‘We hold that the buyer may not cancel the agreement because the challenged amendments to the budget did not materially alter or modify the offering in a manner that was adverse to the buyer,’ the court said.”
“The ruling was immediately acknowledged and e-mailed around South Florida by attorneys handling hundreds of lawsuits against developers on the same grounds. The original case - D&T Properties vs. Marina Grande Associates - was considered a bellwether test in the collapsed housing market.”
The Tallahassee Democrat. “Every home has a story, and across the state many tell a tale about owners who could not make their mortgage payments. The all-too-frequent foreclosure story is how Patrick Coney found his house in eastern Tallahassee. Coney bought his three-bedroom home in January after a bank foreclosed on its previous owner.”
“Frustrated with paying rent, Coney started looking for his home last summer - around the same time the mortgage industry began to crumble after homeowners across the country defaulted on their loans. Undeterred, he set out to find a home that would mesh with his salary that is not too far from the county’s $43,000 average median income.”
“His mortgage payment is more than twice what he paid when sharing an apartment.”
“‘Even though I’m paying a good deal more, it’s my money (and) it’s not going to waste because this house will increase in value,’ Coney said.”
“Home prices in South Florida ‘easily’ could be 20 percent to 30 percent higher by 2013, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Yun called 2008 a ‘year of cleanup’ and says the second half will be better than the first because mortgage markets are improving nationwide and across South Florida. Foreign investors and Baby Boomers will boost home sales during the rest of 2008, he said.”
If today were April 1, I’d think this was an April fool’s joke. Has Yun completely lost his mind?
These people never, ever, ever, ever, ever give any facts, statistics, studies, to back up their claims. How are mortgage markets improving? I just read that mortgage rates are going up. Credit score and downpayment requirements are increasing. Are there independent surveys that show more foreigners and boomers are planning to buy here? Where are they?
Well, there’s this:
‘It’s a familiar story line that is again repeating itself in the Four Corners area: British investors who put down thousands of dollars on vacation homes that haven’t been built and end up suing the developer. At least two other developments aimed mostly at British investors have foundered as the wave of real-estate speculation broke.’
‘‘We’ve spent a lot of sleepless nights talking about it and worrying about it,’ said David Clayton. ‘We expected a comfortable retirement.’’
You almost get the idea that Brits would invest in igloos in Greenland, sight-unseen.
British investors, welcome to Russian Roulette, Florida style! Consider yourselves fortunate, at least you’re not paying taxes and insurance or your albatross yet.
Four corners? Farmington area? Were Outsiders actually buying vacation homes there?
Wow.
You would think that they would have wondered why, if this was such a great investment, the developer needed to go 3,000 miles to find investors.
Maybe for the 10 days a year you would go to a Disney Park it’s convenient, but for the other 355, yeeeeeeshh. I guess it is only an hour from the excitement of Yeehaw Junction, though.
Maybe for the 10 days a year you would go to a Disney Park it’s convenient, but for the other 355, yeeeeeeshh.
The 10 days/year you want to go to a Disney park…you should stay at an on-property hotel! As a former Disney “Imagineer”, I can assure you that this is the best way to have a convenient Disney experience…
Oh, oops, didn’t realize there was a “Four Corners” in orlando as well. Ignore my above comment. And this one.
I had this vision of Brits unknowingly buying up desert in NW New Mexico
Well personally I don’t know why anyone would ever go to Disney. If I’m having a bad day at work, I can console myself that at least I didn’t just pay $75 to stand in line somewhere in Orlando looking at plastic everything, waiting for a ride that hasn’t been updated in 20 years. But obviously I’m in the minority. I was just saying that the proximity to Disney had to be why these Brits bought these “vacation” places. There’s nothing else there of any redeeming value. It’s about as far from the ocean as you can get in Florida.
Anyone buying anything in Orlando as a vacation home is nuts. That area is fun to visit every now and then, but vacation there long term? It’s a total one horse (or one mouse) town; once you have done all the parks (which will take a few weeks), then you suddenly realize there’s nothing else to do there but melt through the pavement because it’s so ungodly hot and humid. Orlando in the summer is the definition of hell, and I live in S. FL, so for me to b*tch about heat, it must be bad!
Well personally I don’t know why anyone would ever go to Disney. If I’m having a bad day at work, I can console myself that at least I didn’t just pay $75 to stand in line somewhere in Orlando looking at plastic everything, waiting for a ride that hasn’t been updated in 20 years. But obviously I’m in the minority.
Right there with you SFC.
“I had this vision of Brits unknowingly buying up desert in NW New Mexico”
Hey Steve, I think they’d do better if they did, rather than Florida.
Well, SFC, I don’t know why people would want to go skiing. It’s cold and windy on the mountain, and you risk going off a cliff. And you have to pay big money to buy equipment and lift tickets.
I also don’t know why people would go to a beach. You get sand inside your clothes and run the risk of getting skin cancer later in life.
Actually, Disney doesn’t sound so bad now.
I just came back from a Disney trip. I tried to use your logic to convince my 5 year old son that he had a lousy time there and we would never go back. He cried.
That couple lives in Amsterdam no less. They had to have smoked some pretty good pot to want to move from there to Polk County.
They had no intention to “move”.
They were just speculating as much as the next person.
“Yun said. ‘The long-term fundamentals are terrific.’”
You mean this doesnt satisfy you? You want something more?
Know this well: Whenever someone with little investment experience is failing in the markets, they always console themselves with “I’m in it for the long-term!”. Remember it.
If nothing good can be said about the current market, fools will always look “long-term”, but remember, while you are looking “long-term”, the opportunity costs are eating you alive.
Why lose 30% today when you can get 10% and buy the “long-term” deal when it starts making you money?
Why? Because Realtwhores need some commission money. That’s why.
The price you pay determines the return you get.
“Long-term fundamentals are terrific.”
Didn’t they say the same thing during the bubble, reasuring everyone that the bubble wasn’t based off speculator demand? Sorry, but fool me once, shame on…that is if you try to fool me…the point is, you can’t fool me again, heh, heh…(name that President).
Of course they never managed to fool intelligent free thinking people the first time, but the rest of the people are aparently so stupid it can’t hurt to try and nail them a second time in just a few years.
‘All of these borrowers didn’t make the same mistake.’
Yes, actually, they did.
I tell my kids if you do something stupid and something bad happens you can’t call it an accident.
Your Consumer Advocate at work:
I don’t know if his claim of “almost like psychological coercion” will stand up in court.
Has he ever heard of “almost like walking away from the closing table when you see the loan terms have changed”?
“Similar suits are being filed around the country, said Ira Rheingold of the National Association of Consumer Advocates in Washington. ‘The fact that this was so prevalent shows there was a complete design flaw in the lending process,’ Rheingold said. ‘All of these borrowers didn’t make the same mistake.’”
In Florida, where a huge percentage of the population would let nothing get between them and a get-rich-quick scheme, it may be possible for the plaintiffs to find a sympathetic jury to side with them….
“Similar suits are being filed around the country, said Ira Rheingold of the National Association of Consumer Advocates in Washington. ‘The fact that this was so prevalent shows there was a complete design flaw in the lending process,’ Rheingold said. ‘All of these borrowers didn’t make the same mistake.’”
Right legal eagle…NO mistake there. FACTS were…
“They all had a need for GREED and they DIDN’T succeed !”
Case CLOSED
I believe it’s a relative term. Once prices drop another 60 to 70% then yes they could be up by 20% in 2103.
2013 that is.
Are you sure?
No, you had it correct with “yes they could be up by 20% in 2103″.
NotMssing - good point. That will be the spin, for sure. Right along the lines of sales numbers that were always an improvement over the prior month because the prior month was revised downward from when it was announced.
Keep in mind that 20% in 5 years is only about 3.7% per year. Just about likely inflation and well below the interest cost on your morgtage. Still it is a pretty ambitious projection for Florida, if not impossible. What should be clear is that even this kind of an optimistic projection makes residential housing a lousy investment right now.
“With U.S. housing market activity at a 10-year low, pessimistic ‘psychology’ is driving the market, said Yun”
Yun is either completely insane, or possessed by bullish housing demons. He needs meds or an exorcist.
The NAR has already used psychology to manipulate reality to the breaking point…spiking the Koolaid no longer works when the water you use to make it comes straight out of the toilet.
Housing is just an extraordinarily bad investment right now, ya putz! New buyers can no longer afford housing at these prices, and older buyers are trapped under crushing levels of debt. Banks are wisely no longer giving loans to anyone with a pulse.
I think he knows he is going to lose his job when housing doesn’t turn around in the second half of ‘08. If anything, Home sales this coming winter are shaping up to be the worst in recorded history.
Yun is more careful than Lereah - Yun’s predictions are carefully five years out. I suspect Yun assumes that he won’t be working for the National Association of Realtors by then.
If he was more careful they’d always be 7 years out, but every man’s got to know his limitations…
Even Lereah became a bit of a housing bear once he left the NAR.
Even Lereah became a bit of a housing bear once he left the NAR.
That is because the bear bit him in the butt and scared the poop out of him!
Foreclosures up 48%
Stick that in your crack pipe and smoke it Yun.
http://tinyurl.com/6fm75t
Actually it is great to see this in print. I used to follow the Japanese real estate bubble (and collapse) as well. Just like us, they have their RE cheerleaders. And just like us, they had “experts” and insiders that kept saying things would recover “soon”. But eventually the media became more and more skeptical of these “experts”, like what you see in this article. People from the NAR were quoted as if what they said was fact. Now I see much more skepticism.
Once Yun’s latest prediction fails (and maybe one or two more) Yun will be reluctant to give positive predictions anymore. Eventually all the experts, including Yun, will go negative, since their reputations will be in tatters. The only safe thing to do will be to say how bad it is, and that it will get much worse. And when the market does start to recover, these “experts” will dismiss the good news as an anomaly, and claim it is still way too early to say the worst is over.
Same stuff happened in Japan.
Now I know the Japanese have a lot more honor than the paid whores we have, but I think the same sort of pressures will apply. It’s probably a 10 year process.
Actually I think this is a positive, Yun is actually conceding that 20% appreciation is now 5 years off rather than next year’s target.
Now batting cleanup, the pitcher Larry Yun
“Home prices in South Florida ‘easily’ could be 20 percent to 30 percent higher by 2013, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Yun called 2008 a ‘year of cleanup’ and says the second half will be better than the first because mortgage markets are improving nationwide and across South Florida. Foreign investors and Baby Boomers will boost home sales during the rest of 2008, he said.”
Struck out, looking.
“Home prices in South Florida ‘easily’ could be 20 percent to 30 percent higher by 2013, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Thursday”.
This POS should be hauled up before a Senate sub-committee and held accountable for this BS. The D.C. gang is forever talking about holding big business ‘accountable’… The NAR is one big damn business. I think I’ll write my Senator and suggest they jerk this punk up to D.C. for a through colon cleansing, with a JT!
I suggest a bipartisan committee of Barney Frank and Larry Craig do handle this task.
Baghdad bob lives.
wmbz,
Exactly. Saying: “There’s a p-o-t-e-n-t-i-a-l for RE ( in general ) to appreciate “nicely” in the long term”
Is a general statement.
Saying: “I expect homes in ____ to appreciate by ____ in ____ .
Constitutes a “specific recommendation! It should be treated accordingly as would any other facet of financial services. But NAR doesn’t see things that way, and probably never will.
Besides, a 20 to 30% return ( over the next FIVE years ) can be attained in any number of other investments. With certainly less risk than a home in a hurricane zone! But they don’t see things that way either.
L.Y.’r is quite Whorevoyant, ain’t he?
“Besides, a 20 to 30% return ( over the next FIVE years ) can be attained in any number of other investments. With certainly less risk than a home in a hurricane zone! But they don’t see things that way either.”
That’s barely the rate of inflation, if that. He’s essentially saying housing won’t lose any more value. That’s quite optimistic considering housing will be falling for at least the next year or two and the economy may be in the toilet for a portion of the period between now and 2013. If we end up in a depression-type scenario, only being down another 20 or 30 percent (inflation adjusted) might be good.
Struck out LOOKING? Sheesh. He’s a better pitcher at the bat than many I’ve seen. Pitchers tend take monster swings at pitches that are way low or way outside.
“‘Even though I’m paying a good deal more, it’s my money (and) it’s not going to waste because this house will increase in value,’ Coney said.”
Mr. Coney - one word - Amortization.
Let’s see how much of that money is still yours in five years.
It’s not only that word that he needs to learn, but another; it’s called “inflation.” Even on the remote chance that it is worth more in five years, it will NOT be worth more when adjusting for inflation.
Another word, he should learn is called “affordability.”
In the article it says, “his salary that is not too far from the county’s $43,000 average median income.”
However, I looked up his house on public records. He paid $165,000 for the home with a $163,699 mortgage (at least he took out a fixed-rate loan). Based on Tallahassee insurance and tax rates, that means that he’s paying approximately $1400 a month excluding HOA and maintance. That means that nearly 50% of his take-home pay is going to the house. Ouch.
Incidentally, the development where he purchased (Weems Plantation) is foreclosure city. Every third house is either for sale or in foreclosure. It’s a mess. He probably could have rented an identical house in the same community for $1000 a month.
Gator - that makes the point that has baffled me lately - so many “experts” glibly throw out that a house at 4X income is normal and very affordable. No, it isn’t. 3X is too much for me and I think 3X was appropriate only for younger earners who could fairly reliably look to constant and significant wage growth when we had a growing economy. With that out the “Chindow,” I think that any average homebuyer who pays more than 2.5X their annual gross should have a kindly rich relative higher up the food chain, for Plan B.
But there are loads of folks who continue to think being house poor is okay.
I have a guy who works for me who makes $50k a year. He bought a $180k home with no money down. He makes his payment aright, but has absolutely nothing left over when he done.
To make matters worse, he’s a young, single guy who should be going out to all the time, eating out nightly, going on road trips, and taking vacations –- all the things that made my younger, single days so much fun.
However, since he bought his albatross, he’s forced to penny-pinch to just to make his monthly mortgage payment.
What really sucks in all of these situations is they could have all lived in the equivalent home for a fraction of the cost.
In this particular case, Coney is paying $1400 to “own” a little 1246 square foot home on a postage-stamp-sized lot in a town where rentals are RIDICULOUSLY cheap.
For a point of reference, I rent here in Tallahassee. For $1600 a month, we’re renting a 4,000+ square foot home with a pool on nearly four acres. Best of all, my landlord is paying for the maintenance and absorbing the depreciation of the asset.
I just don’t understand what drives people like this to struggle to buy a home when rentals are so plentiful and so freaking cheap.
Hey Gatorfan. You a fellow Gainesville resident? Got some serious delusions in this town. Like my realtor landlord. Just put her cookie-cutter 2BR condo on the market for 225K. Identical construction 3BR with many upgrades next door is listed at 175K. Talk abour your kool-aid drinkers.
They’re all going to be RICH, RICH, and we renters will be left behind in the dust with our vacations and our disposable incomes. We will have to grovel and slither before the masters as they walk past us because they are all going to be RICH, RICH.
Wow, I would love to have a pool with the LL paying for the maintenance. It would be like living at a nice hotel. Good for you!
Marcus,
I’m actually living in Tallahassee now, which has a very similar market to Gainesville. There are loads of folks in both towns who are absolutely convinced that “Things are different here” especially since neither market have dropped significantly. Still, both markets are flooded with inventory, which means the price stickiness will break shortly.
Meshell,
No such luck. I have to pay for the chemicals in the pool and do the day-to-day cleaning. However, if one of the two pumps or anything else breaks, my LL will pay for it the repairs.
““Home prices in South Florida ‘easily’ could be 20 percent to 30 percent higher by 2013, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Yun called 2008 a ‘year of cleanup’”
Wait until the next hurricane hits South Florida Mr Yun, home owners policies will be non-existant and the state run fund which is still paying for the 2004-2005 season will be as empty as the Social Security treasure chest.
‘Adamaitas said there were some loans he decided were just too risky to write, but others that he pushed through despite their implausibility. ‘I had young kids coming in to me trying to buy these huge homes,’ Adamaitis said. ‘I didn’t feel good about it. But if I didn’t do it, somebody else would.’
He said with a straight face.
Such is the nature of Ponzi schemes: Buy now or be priced out forever.
‘I had young kids coming in to me trying to buy crack,’ [...] said. ‘I didn’t feel good about it. But if I didn’t do it, somebody else would.’
I thought the Nuremburg Trials had already decided that this wasn’t a valid defense?
You can’t seriously compare this to that. People weren’t exactly lining up to get gassed, were they?
This is closer in spirit to someone showing up to a grocery store, and asking to buy all the watermelons in the store for $1,000, and even offering to cart them away themselves.
What would the owner do? Turn them down because it was stupid?
Actually, the owner should turn them down on the premise that his other customers might expect to be able to buy watermelon and would be disappointed if they couldn’t. He should refuse in order to keep the majority of his customers happy with the service his store provides.
You’ve clearly never run a business, have you?
When a moron like this shows up, you sell them all you have, and then some.
You must be some kinda government employee or an academic but I repeat myself.
What if he normally doesn’t sell all of his watermelons, and this guarantees he will be able to sell all his inventory…can he then raise the rates on the next shipment because now more people want a melon?
From Mellencamp:
“Hey calling it your job ol’ hoss
Sure don’t make it right
But if you want me to I’ll say a prayer
For your soul tonight.”
..
Ben:
I have posted here on several occasions concerning my observations of penniless “twentysomethings” “buying” these huge, McMexican built “throwups” here in Polk County, FL. Some of these kids weren’t even in college and were barely working…
Of course, in the heady days of Polk County real estate, a decent work history, a reasonable income, and a savings plan weren’t required to “get into” a 3,000 sqft home.
I have seen some of these homes turned into growhouses. I have seen some of these houses with tie-dye sheets used for curtains in the windows. I have lived next to a “twentysomething-owned” lakefront home used as a weekend kegger-bar; complete with trash in the lawn, loud music, and drunken testosterone-laden fights that spilled out into other peoples yards.
I saw single kids and young, unmarried puppylove couples “buying” these 4 bdr/ 2ba tract homes here in FL with NO MONEY DOWN….as, ummm, “investments”. I remember standing in the driveway of a buddy’s home talking to the “barely able to shave”, “man of the house” next door neighbor about his nice 4bdr/3ba home….you know…his “investment”.
Of course, these big houses sit empty now.
For me, at age 46, it was a bellweather moment; an epiphany, if you will.
None of this stuff seemed reasonable at the time; and it wasn’t.
Polk County is a Foreclosure Disaster.
..
Les,
Sad. Just sad. Of course ’someone’ signed off on all this and NAR should well realize that not only have they “pulled their book forward” of potential clients, they’ve also decimated an entire generation of buyers. These kids credit will be f’d for some time to come. I hope they are happy with themselves.
That aside, this… “revelry” you describe is exactly what I wanted to do as a renter to anger the few remaining “infestors” in formerly gated communites! ( Doesn’t seem nearly as funny now? )
LP,
I had very young people buy houses on both sides of mine (in one case a single girl about 2 months out of college and on the other side a young couple one of whom was still in college). Both of them mowed their yards maybe 2 or 3 times before deciding it was too much work. They also figured if they quit watering it would save them money and they wouldn’t need to mow anymore anyway. Long story short my nice neighborhood which used to be full of children playing in upkept yards turned into an ugly state of disrepair in just a few short bubble years as young people rushed into real estate to get rich quickly never realizing the work and money it takes to care for a house and yard. This bubble really wrecked neighborhoods, I don’t know if we’ll ever recover.
gascap,
Yeah, it’s a pain when all that “domestic stuff” cuts into yer’ “partyin’ time” isn’t it? Then they act like they’re doing the world a huge favor by doing simple things any home owner would be expected to do. Mind you, in many cases these were NEW or nearly new homes!
You’ve really struck a nerve with me because it migrated into the 30/40-somethings that felt just mowing the lawn from time to time and taking out the garbage constituted “home improvement”. What a laugh.
When you’ve had to replace a roof, water heater, windows AND re-wire your house ( all in the same year ) you can sit on that barstool next to me and b!tch. Till then, STHU.
I agree with you about neighborhoods gascap. People used to live in neighborhoods made up of other people; now they live in neighborhoods comprised of “investments.” One has a soul and the other doesn’t.
What are you saying?
What about the “ownership society”??
Everyone should own a house. The Government is working hard to provide ‘affordable housing’ for all its Citizens. GW is the leader in providing new housing opportunities for all.
Tell me it isn’t so.
Tell me people with no money can get a McMansion for every occassion. God Bless the USA!!
Hi:
My kiddo was born in Lakeland, Fla., where we once lived until heading to Calif. a decade ago. I wondered how Lakeland proper may be holding up, especially the older historic districts that had been rehabbed.
Any insight appreciated.
Les Pendens,
Great post! I hope you were only renting next to those young Donald Trumps. It would be horrible to be the only one who could afford the only fixed rate loan in that neighborhood surrounded by those partying tycoons!
You brought up the very reasons why renting in multiple unit dwelllings (large apartment complexes) will more likely get you responsible savers as neighbors.
“There’s no definitive data that says Baby Boomers are going to choose Florida, Levin said.”
Correct, and there never has been.
Same goes for AZ. You wouldn’t believe the “Boomers will retire and move here and prop up our housing market!” spew that emanates from our local politicians.
Good Lord willing and the crick don’t rise, we’re retiring right where we are. The house has been in the family for about 70 years, so we know the potential problem areas. Decent neighborhood. We thought about moving and decided that it didn’t make financial sense. I’ve felt a lot more relaxed since we made that decision.
Pre-1998, I think it was logical to assume they’d come in pretty large numbers. Dresden was a beautiful old city before February 1945. Things change. I’ve lived in central Florida all my life loved it until Disney came, after which I loved it less and less but was still plenty OK. Now I may well have to buy a retirement home out of state because I didn’t nail one down 10 years ago, locking in SOH property taxes.
Between the taxes and insurance and the tourism hit the state is taking because of energy costs and our globocop-caused airline misery, Florida is screwed, IMO. I don’t believe it can recover without royalties from oil drilling off the coast of the state.
The difference is that, once again, Dresden is a beautiful old city. We’ll have to wait and see about Florida.
Do you almost get the idea that like Jonestown, Guyana circa 1978, there must be a Yuntown somewhere in Florida?
The kool-aid he’s serving up appears to be laced with acid…
–
It is all about human behavior. How would you characterize the “Schemers” and how would you characterize the “Dreamers?”
BTW, it is not just Florida; it applies to the whole country. G. W., the Big One, was a big-time land speculator, starting at the age of 18, and was the richest man in America when he died. He lost money on the farm and all the money he had was due to profits in land speculation.
Jas
He also was one of our country’s earliest speculators in oil. Bought an “oil springs” area in what’s now West Virginia.
So FBs must ask themselves…
What does a $250K 1 br 1 ba condo on the 3rd floor of a converted apartment complex in Orlando Florida have to do with LAND speculation?
There is speculation, and then there is the whole fool and his money soon departing thingy.
“‘There’s no definitive data that says Baby Boomers are going to choose Florida. Florida ain’t so cheap anymore,’ Levin said.”
People are going to be retiring later and poorer than they used to. They also will want to be closer to family.
I think that the current crop of sixty-somethings is leading the “be close to family” trend. Many of them are quite attached to their grandkids and are deeply involved in their day-to-day lives.
Boomers had a much more distant relationship with their grandparents, and now that they’re grandparents, they want something different.
“Boomers had a much more distant relationship with their grandparents”
Yeah, Boomers don’t want to be stuffed away into ‘old people storage’ like they way they did their old folks. I also hear boomers talking about wanting to be able to walk more places.
Well you shouldn’t have left for the damned ‘burbs then.
Freakin’ boomers.
Hey Muggy, quit generalizing. I’m a boomer and I had a very close relationship with my parents. They came north to stay with my family every summer and my sister built an addition for my Mom, after my father passed away. I know very few friends, my age, that were not close to their parents.
I’m another “freakin’ boomer. Many people my age are humble and responsible savers. Rich, middle class, and poor, we don’t fit your mold. The vocal minority drive big SUVs, talk loud on the phone, have cosmetic surgery every year, change lanes without signaling, and bought real estate they could not afford, mistaking it for a retirement plan. BWAHAHAHA!
I blame boomers for big box retail, suburbia, sprawl, outsourcing, ridiculous zoning/NIMBY, helicopter parenting onset, demanding to speak to the manager, dredge and fill, answering machines, 80’s night, and, “changing the world, man!”
Don’t even get me started!
ROTFLMAO!
You forgot “everybody gets a trophy who competed tonight otherwise it might huwt theh FEEWINGS!”
Are you sure those are there grandkids though? Seriously, we’re knee deep up here with “Viagra Daddies” - dudes that you would swear are grandfathers but really aren’t.
I never did understand why someone who’s really family-oriented would want to pick up and move 2000 miles away from their families, then call and beg them to come visit more often. Sheesh, what a hassle.
This has always confused me too. They are such fools.
I can understand if they need to do it for financial reasons but otherwise it just makes no sense whatsoever. Shouldn’t you retire where you’ve lived most of your life and have the most friends, etc.?
“Shouldn’t you retire where you’ve lived most of your life and have the most friends, etc.?”
No, no, no, Florida is paradise. You DESERVE to live here.
Florida is the on-ramp to the pearly gates. After a life of commuting and sitting on on-ramps to the highway home, what else would you expect a sheep to do.
Get in line.
“‘I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet,’ said Nancy Detert, a former mortgage broker running for state Senate who is pitching a ‘community downpayment assistance plan.’”
From mortgages to politics……that’s just great.
“‘We have so much empty supply,’ Detert said. ‘It is devaluing the houses owned by the rest of us and devaluing whole neighborhoods. If we took a sponge and sponged up some of the supply, we’d have more demand.’”
Hmmm….eliminating supply creates demand…..interesting. If there was demand, wouldn’t that take care of the supply??
I don’t think this broad should ever be allowed to spend a dime of taxpayer money.
That is freakin’ scary. You know she’s a shoe-in.
I recently bought the old Skyscraper CD by David Lee Roth, finally replacing cassette tapes that I’ve had forever. On of the songs on that was playing in my head while I read this post.
Two fools born a minute.
“His mortgage payment is more than twice what he paid when sharing an apartment.”
“‘Even though I’m paying a good deal more, it’s my money (and) it’s not going to waste because this house will increase in value,’ Coney said.”
Three fools born a minute.
“Don’t be starin’ at your stereo…fool”
That’s my favorite song off that album. Gotta love an educated rock guitarist that can arrange horn parts…
“Florida is a land of schemers and dreamers”
Florida? Try the entire country.
Spent 6 weeks in Florida earlier this year, (Boca - Key West, and lots in between), accompanied by someone who spent a good part of their earlier life there. By the end of our journey, this person’s assessment was short:
“Florida is rotting”, and expressed no wish to return ever again.
“How much, he said, will depend largely on
housing pricesjobs.”ot-sorry i just had to share this
just for kicks i emailed someone of craigslist for a coop listing
and not only is it insanely overpriced but they say one picture is worth a thousand words check these photos out
they obviously are stark raving mad slobs
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303381.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303382.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303383.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303384.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303385.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303386.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303387.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303388.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303389.jpg
Wow, their ’shame factor’ must not be very high. My wife has this pet peeve on Craig’s list photos when folks don’t clean up the room if they are selling a piece of furniture. I wonder how she’ll react if they don’t bother to clean at all if they are selling the entire place!
Looks like they ought to be advertising for a tag sale.
Looks to me like one of the two parties didn’t know the other one was going to put the place up for sale.
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y227/zetachi/Apt%206E/P5303382.jpg
It should have been “ShaLOB”.
I scrutinized those photos again after I saw that “Shalom” on the wall!
I don’t see any mezuzot on their doorposts, so I’m not sure if they’re actually Jewish. And there’s the name “Ryan” on the door…could that be an Anglicized version of some actual Jewish name like Reuven? (for example). The kitchen photos aren’t high-res enough for me to see if the food that’s sitting around is likely to be Kosher.
Anyway, I’d have a nervous breakdown if I were anywhere near that place. That clutter would drive me nuts…I’d have to start throwing things away and cleaning….
I would love to check the expiraton dates on those many boxes of various cereals used to decorate the place.
Is that their daughter in one of those pictures? I can’t believe they are sending out pictures to total strangers with their young kid on it!
Where does the poor kid play? What a sh!thole! Just looking at it makes me claustrophobic.
There was no other place to put her:-)
Those are truly scary pictures. Aside from the most obvious yuck factor, how do they expect ANYONE to have an idea of what the place looks like when it’s pilled from floor to ceiling with crap?
I think there *is* a little girl sitting on the floor in front of the sofa in a photo. I didn’t even see her the first time I looked at the picture. She was kinda hidden amongst the surrounding *stuff*.
Boy, oh boy.
BayQT~
oops! “pilled” should be “piled”.
BayQT~
I always wondered who bought all that crap for sale, at the Dollar General Stores…By looks of it…..THEY DID
>> “At one point during the peak of the market, Miami, a city of about 400,000 people, had 60,000 condo units in some stage of planning or construction. Thousands of those units are due to come to the market in the next 12 months.”
I have visions of aged concrete eaten away by years of sun and salt, laundry hanging over the railings to dry, people selling produce outside on the sidewalk scraping by for every amero it takes to pay the rent.
60,000, and none within walking distance to the beach, although crack is readily available nearby. What were they thinking?
“They offered $415,000, plus an argument: ‘If you don’t sell at this price, we will buy the twin house nearby and instantly reset the market price for your house.’”
That is f**-ing awesome.
I love it too, but the end result is the same for the seller. I guess in one scenario they walk away with cash, while in the other they grin and bear it, while waiting for the next buyer(and hope this doesn’t happen again).
I did something like this on my first house (1998). During negotiations, the house 2 doors down from the one I placed an offer on went up for rent. We talked to that owner who was finishing the renovations, and he said it was ours to rent if we wanted it.
The couple trying to sell the house were being real hard-nosed about negotiations, so we told them if they did not take our offer, we would rent the house 2 doors away.
They took the offer.
“Home prices in South Florida ‘easily’ could be 20 percent to 30 percent higher by 2013, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.
” (Yun is the Little Orphan Annie of forecasters. He’s always sure the sun will come out tomorrow.)
Looks like Little Orphan Yun is up to his same old tricks with smoke and mirrors to fool the unsuspecting public again! There is not a speck of credibility left in Little Orphan Yun or the NAR!
Hey Yun, ever hear of the term ethics?
This almost seems like capitulation on Yun’s part, to go from a guaranteed 15% appreciation next year to a possible 20-30% five years away.
Adamaitis said. ‘I didn’t feel good about it. But if I didn’t do it, somebody else would.’”
Spoken like a true con artist!
Update from Slim’s snark-a-teria:
You know how we keep chortling about the uptick the in “toys for sale” trend? As in, we’re seeing more jet skis, boats, oversized pickups, ATVs, etc. for sale, usually with hand-lettered signs?
Well, I’ve got something for ya: I see that a neighbor is offering a hot Kawasaki Ninja bike for sale. It’s got a spiffy green paint job, which just has to mean that this baby can run FAST!
Something tells me that the payments are more of a burden than they used to be.
“Test drive” it for a while. After you’ve had your fun, tell him you don’t really want it.
Make those fuel prices hurt, baby! Where’s the love, I ask?
50mpg. If you have a commute, it’s not a bad thing to have.
Don’t forget to sign the organ donor card.
“‘Even though I’m paying a good deal more, it’s my money (and) it’s not going to waste because this house will increase in value,’ Coney said.”
One more example of an idiot knife catcher who is now upside down on his house. I doubt he realizes who much value he has lost since he bought it. He probally thinks he is making lots of money!
“MISPLACED WORD”"….
He supposedly said; “Even though I’m paying a good deal more, it’s my money (and) it’s not going to waste because this house will increase in value,’ Coney said.”…..
WHAT HE MEANT, WAS: “Even though I’m paying a good deal more, it’s my money (and) it’s going to waste because this house will “”"”NOT”"” increase in value,’ Coney MENT …
“Frustrated with paying rent, Coney started looking for his home last summer — around the same time the mortgage industry began to crumble after homeowners across the country defaulted on their loans. Undeterred, he set out to find a home that would mesh with his salary that is not too far from the county’s $43,000 average median income.”
How about the first part of that paragraph? So he’s tired of paying rent. We all know that if he did his due diligence, he’d realize that one has to consider much more than just being “frustrated with paying rent”. You have to wonder, was he living under a rock when everything was coming to a head? And he lives in one of the ground zero states, no less. Dude is clueless.
And wait a minute. Who declared that June is National Homeowership Month?
BayQT~
‘The fact that this was so prevalent shows there was a complete design flaw in the lending process,’ Rheingold said. ‘All of these borrowers didn’t make the same mistake.’”
True enough. Each of these FBs was stupid, greedy, and irresponsible in their own unique way.
“‘I had young kids coming in to me trying to buy these huge homes,’ Adamaitis said. ‘I didn’t feel good about it. But if I didn’t do it, somebody else would.’”
And that, friends and neighbors, sums up the moral compass of just about every realtor and REIC “professional” in America. “We were sleazy and duplicitious and led foolish FBs to the slaugher, but deep down we felt a just a smidgin conflicted about it.”
These guys aren’t so different than Heinrich Himmler’s “I was only following orders” minions.
“‘The problem is, the 10-year expectation for Tampa was annual job growth of nearly 25,000 new jobs,’ Polito wrote in Metrostudy’s first-quarter report. ‘The actual annual growth was revised to a loss of 17,300 jobs.’”
42,300 house differential in just one year. Kewl.
Roidy
This guy expects a 30% increase in prices in the next year. Many/most other housing economists are expecting a 30% drop. We all know who is more right.
What I’m wondering is where this 30% drop is coming from. This country has seen a 85% run-up in prices over the last decade- to get back to “normal” levels, there needs to be something like a 45% decrease in prices.
The coasts are obviously even more worse off. The SF Bay Area has seen 500%+ increases in prices. A 45% drop would barely be a drop in the bucket in these markets.
I know I’m not jumping in until we slam into the bottom. Why in the hello would anyone buy a house whose value keeps dropping?