Changing The Way We Live?
Readers suggested a topic on energy costs and house prices. “Can we discuss the impact of rising energy costs and general inflation expectations on the decision to rent or buy a home? What are the risks of waiting to buy? My heating costs have almost doubled since I went from owner to renter 2.5 years ago. I believe that even though home prices may drift downward, if I owned the home I’d have control over investing to make it very energy efficient and potentially save more in a few years than what is at risk in the house price.”
“I am in a cold climate, and in a non-bubbly area (though lots of foreclosures).”
A reply, “I think a more important variation on this question should be, when will the energy costs associated with a living space (purchase or rental) start being truly reflected in the price?”
“Perhaps the reason why we don’t see much discussion of this sort is that IMO the energy performance truly sucks in about 98% of the existing homes. In other words, there’s no meaningful differentiaion to be had.”
One added, “I’ve wondered this too. All the newer homes, condos, and townhomes I’ve looked at in the past few years, one of the first things I ask the realtor/salesperson what the energy efficiency of the homes are. In many new home developments most of the sales people don’t even know the answer to that question. Coincidentally, I’ve found many brand new homes by the big name builders often have insulation equal to that of a poorly constructed apartment building.”
“And if I look at any homes older than say, 15-20 years, I estimate in my mind how much it would cost to rip out and reinsulate the house, among other things to make it energy efficient, and add that onto the purchase price.”
One asks about gasoline, “When and where in America do you predict the first violent protests over rising fuel costs like have been seen in other parts of the globe? What will be the spark to ignite them?”
One from California. “False entitlement fuses have been laid all over Los Angeles, the city of the automobile… Add in a public transport system that might be the worst of any 1st world city of size, and there’s your spark.”
A reply, “Public transportation in Los Angeles has improved tremendously in the past 20 years. There’s now an extensive commuter rail system that extends into Orange County, the Inland Empire, the Antelope Valley, and Ventura County. Los Angeles also has a subway and light rail system. The options are far better than in the 70’s, though there’s still much room for improvement.”
“One could look at Houston, for example, as a large city that has far fewer transit options. If there is civil unrest due to gas, I’d guess it’s more likely due to supply disruptions than prices and more likely somewhere east of the Rockies. It should be noted that some of the greatest outrage from higher prices following Katrina was in these areas, though those higher prices were no higher than those on the West Coast.”
Another posted, “I live in LA and I am hoping for gas to go to $6. I realize this will affect the prices of virtually everything I buy but LA needs a good cleansing. $6 / gallon will be a good start. Traffic is already easing up. The last time we had a good cleansing here was the Northridge earthquake in 94. I think the gas and real estate collapse will cause much less ‘pain.’”
The Orlando Sentinel. “According to an Orlando Sentinel analysis of sales data from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, from March to April, Orlando’s urban-market sales grew 37 percent compared with 9.9 percent for the market overall, and 15 percent from April to May compared with 3.7 percent overall. Earlier in the year, sales within the two-mile radius of downtown Orlando were lagging the sales growth trends overall.”
“‘People have noticed the prices have been reduced,’ said Darryl Hunt, who recently brokered the $850,000 sale of a penthouse in the Solaire condominium downtown. He said a few years ago it would have fetched more than $1 million.”
“Steven Moreira, broker in Longwood, is trying to sell several of his rental homes in Sumter, Marion and Volusia counties, in part because the commuting costs to maintain the properties have soared. His gasoline bill for one maintenance truck has gone up from $500 to $900 a month, Moreira said.”
“‘We need ways to get to work and not have to start the car until the weekend — the way a lot of people do in Europe,’ said Moreira, president of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. ‘People are just not going to commute 50 miles with $10 [a gallon] gas.’”
The Journal Gazette. “Builders last month obtained nearly 49 percent fewer home construction permits than they did in May 2007, according to the Home Builders Association of Fort Wayne. Construction hasn’t been at that level since 1983, when high interest rates stifled building.”
“Gas prices above $4 a gallon are causing consumers who are considering whether to buy an existing home or build a new one to avoid a move, said Ric Zehr, VP of subdivision developer North Eastern Group. ‘Gas prices are a huge, huge factor,’ he said. ‘It’s changing the way we live.’”
The Mail Tribune. “Property foreclosures jumped dramatically in Jackson County this spring. Default figures compiled by LandAmerica Lawyers Title soared 142 percent year-over-year in April and 83 percent year-over-year in May.”
“‘It’s a national question and a serious one,’ said Bob Forrest of Bob Forrest Loan & Investments in Medford. ‘So many people want to go in and flip the property. They get it and can’t flip it and they’re living in it and you can only live in one of them. I know of two cases like that.’”
“While risky behavior on the part of lenders and borrowers led to the foreclosure cycle, lost jobs and rising fuel costs have exacerbated the problem. ‘So many things are going wrong with the economy,’ said Forrest. ‘Gas prices and the phenomenal cost of everything has made it so people are being robbed of their ability to spend and make payments.’”
The Sacramento Bee. “With a force not seen in decades, the high cost of energy is hammering the economy in Sacramento and beyond. It’s keeping shoppers away from Arden Fair mall and thinning out the crowds at Sacramento International Airport. It’s hurting restaurants and crippling SUV sales.”
“Thanks to $4.50-a-gallon gas and $130-a-barrel oil, energy is consuming nearly 7 cents of every dollar of economic output in the United States. That’s about twice as big a bite as last year and nearly as much as in the late 1970s, when oil shortages sent the country into a nasty recession, said James Hamilton, an energy economist at the University of California, San Diego.”
“Chronic $130-plus oil could bring changes in land-use patterns. It could hurt those far-flung commuter suburbs, like those in Yuba and Sutter counties, which were conceived when gas was cheaper but are now suffering some of the worst of the foreclosure crisis.”
“‘Developers will certainly think twice about looking at land in far-out locations,’ said Dean Wehrli, VP with Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors in Elk Grove.”
From Vail Daily. “In the past, there would be almost 30 potential buyers in line for a Miller Ranch home, and first person in line would get the house, said Kim Williams, Eagle County deed-restriction manager.”
“This year, a tighter, more ‘conservative’ lending market has resulted in less buyers who are able to finance one of the 282 deed-restricted homes in Edwards, she said. ‘Now we have to go several people down the list,’ she said.”
“Foreclosures have affected the market all over the country, and now it is hitting the Vail valley and its deed-restricted, affordable homes. Lenders are now looking more carefully at credit histories and debt-to-income ratios.”
“Those tighter restrictions hit first-time homeowners the hardest, said Cris Nolan, lending officer with WR Starkey Mortgage in Edwards.”
“‘Previously, nearly everyone could get a loan, and that’s not the case now,’ she said. ‘Usually everyone has to come with $3,000 down, and that’s the problem with locals. They don’t have that cash.’”
One thing I thought about while putting this together is the myth that the Fed can ‘inflate’ away the housing bubble with wages flat or falling. Higher commodities with flat wages only result in poorer consumers. And that hardly supports bubble prices.
The first commenter in this post is from Michigan. With an economy on shaky ground, I’d be much more keen to protect my mobility for job purposes than worrying about being able to insulate the house. What good is it to have a low home-heating bill if you have to move for work?
This job thing is going to make a new division in social class - those who can move and those who can’t. Eventually, people will have to let their houses go just so they can move and have work. Maybe house swapping will become more prevalent, but I doubt it, as it’s hard to make the right matches.
And now we see the Vail area starting to see the effects of the credit tightening. Just the other day I was talking to someone who looked incredulous that I could even utter the words “the ski areas are falling.” After the shock wore off, she replied, “Well, I’ve always wanted a house in Telluride.”
Have you ever met anyone who, when talking about Colorado ski towns, said, “I’ve always wanted a house in Vail”?? I haven’t. Vail deserves to fail, if for no other reason because of its insufferable elitist attitude.
Have places like Aspen, etc. ever been “affordable”? Not to say they won’t fall, they will, but it would take a greater depression scenario for the working class to so much as get their foot in the door there.
It was just another failed silver/gold mining town before the ski area. Just like Telluride. In the mid-60s you could buy a house in Telluride for 10k, but you didn’t want it cause it was too cold and too remote. Nice place to picnic, though. Bridal Veil Falls is very pretty.
Will it ever go back to that? I doubt it. But maybe, if tourism crashes and then the ski areas crash - the panache may be gone and the wealthy may find it too remote for their tastes. Same with Aspen, though it’s more accessible. It’s all about being hip.
Going skiing for 2 days for 2 people (gas-lift tickets-hotel room-eats) at a moderate resort will set you back around $500, but somehow they spend $5,000 doing it in Aspen…
Some of those “failed mining towns” in Colorado could be posed to come back in a big way. A lot of the gold, silver, and uranium mines fell victim to low commodity prices (decades ago) and/or high costs or low recovery rates of getting the metals out of the ground. Now there are much more cost-effective and efficient extraction techniques, and with the soaring costs of metals, it is become economically viable to reopen some of the closed mines or do some new prospecting in the vicinity. The areas around Victor and Leadville are especially promising, once you get over the discomforting fact that the local populace all look like extras from “The Hills have Eyes.”
There is a huge barrier to entry in the form of onerous regulation. Environmentalists will prove to be an all but insurmountable hurdle to any large re-vitalization of mining in the Rockies. Most of the world’s most profitable mining is done in countries with lax environmental and worker safety laws.
Still, it is worth remembering that the US still possesses a great deal of natural resources.
(Raises hand shyly)
Me?
Hey, it’s a GREAT ski hill with excellent golf courses– and the Eagle backcountry is horse-trek heaven. But if someone were to offer me a place in Aspen I wouldn’t sniff in derision….
Me too, actually. I’d love a house in Vail. Got married there. Alas living there is only a dream since there are not many great job oppotunities there.
Yes, we’ve discussed the whole “inflation will prop housing prices” thing here before. If WAGES don’t go up (or “grants” to first-time buyers, etc.), nothing else maters. Cost inflation will put downward pressure on housing prices, if wages don’t rise to meet the new costs of other goods.
Nice fix we’re in, no?
This, among other things discussed here, is why I’m in the severe recession/depression camp. From everything I can see, J6 is f**ked.
Warning:
Do not watch Fox Flood Footage today!
Unless you want to relive Katrina, turn off tv.
Black swan event.
Go shopping or hiking.
No casual driving allowed!
It will look like Katrina, except for one major difference.
There aren’t a bunch of welfare recipients waiting for the government to give them a bus-ride out of town, and there won’t be national wailing on Television about the terrible response by the Feds.
Why?
Simple. This is a natural disaster and the people who were involved can’t cry racism.
So, there will be a huge difference in the response of the victims, the press, and the government.
Where’s Al Sharpton? Jesse Jackson? and the other extortionists?
Right on, diogenes. RIGHT ON!
Katrina was a natural disaster too. But since most of the Katrina victims were part of the entitlement class and few of the Iowa victims are, the MSM response will be totally different.
I wonder which Hollywood airhead will tell us the Iowans deserved it.
“Katrina victims were part of the entitlement class and few of the Iowa victims are,”
You’re joking, right? See what happens if FEMA doesn’t cough up big for crop damage, flooded fields, ruined farm equipment.
wonder if fema will block help, water, and supplies from getting in on the highway like they did in New Orleans
“wonder which Hollywood airhead will tell us the Iowans deserved it.”
It’s God’s way of “just saying ‘No’” to ethanol.
obviously some asshats here will defend the goverment even when it displays blatant, gross incompetence. Yes– quite obviously it was the race of people involved and not poverty and complete failure of govt. at all levels which caused katrina.
fortunately most NORMAL people saw what happened in new orleans, so we don’t need commentary from nutcases.
Yes and white people helped each other both in NO and Iowa, not stole and mugged people like in the superdome.
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Yes– quite obviously it was the race of people involved
In crises, aren’t we supposed to help everyone? So, “white people” helped each other — and blocked the bridge so people in NO could not leave for higher ground. That’s worth applauding? Not for anyone with a heart . . . or a brain . . . or a soul.
IAT
Iowans aren’t part of the entitlement class??? That state is one of the largest receivers of the largest corporate welfare in this country (agricultural subsidies).
Indeed, according to the Environmental Working Group database on farm subsidies, from 1995-2006, Iowa received 9.0% of all agricultural subsidies ($16B). That was narrowly second only to Texas.
Trying to find something positive in this catastrophe: maybe it will kill talk of forcing all US taxpayers to pay for hurricane insurance. Even though I have to deal with hurricanes and the insurance premiums are horrendous, I can choose not to live here. The cost of my being here should not be the expense of someone in another area or state. Another benefit is that the starry-eyed folks who thought corn-based ethanol was a good idea in large part because the crop was guaranteed every year are beginning to look pretty foolish.
That said, my sympathies go to everyone most directly affected by this flooding.
The good people of Iowa, and every other state, might start thinking about electing public officials who will pay more than lip service to investing in outmoded concepts like physical infrastructure and flood-control measures.
“‘Gas prices and the phenomenal cost of everything has made it so people are being robbed of their ability to spend and make payments.’”
Hmmm…so there’s nothing wrong with outlandish home prices that require people to fork over 40%+ of their take home pay, but gas up $1.50 a gallon and it’s highway robbery. Unbelievable, but it is coming from a banker, so I guess not.
Yeah! Why can’t they use the same logic that worked with houses? Since gas prices “only go up” they should be able to afford it! They can borrow money for a tank of gas, and refinance it a week later when they get some equity!
Fill up your tank now, or be priced out forever!
“Previously, nearly everyone could get a loan, and that’s not the case now,’ she said. ‘Usually everyone has to come with $3,000 down, and that’s the problem with locals. They don’t have that cash.’”
This quote shows just how maxed-out American consumers are. People cannot cough up $3,000 for a down payment, and they are trying to buy homes? No wonder so many of the overpaid fools who supposedly manage our nation’s banks and brokers are getting their butts kicked out on the street.
The reality is that American consumers have hit the wall. They can’t borrow any more, they can’t save any less, and many of them cannot earn any more:
- Debt as a percentage of disposable income is at a record high, the home equity extraction game is over, and the terms on credit cards and auto loans are much tougher.
- The savings rate is near zero.
- Wages adjusted for inflation are dropping significantly for most of those who are not business owners or self-employed benefiting in some way from offshore activity (e.g. hiring offshore, selling offshore, outsourcing functions offshore).
There are four things to do to survive the depression that has already started:
- Get and keep a job.
- Rent so you can be mobile for your job. Even if it costs more to rent than to buy–that is the case in very few areas even now–mobility will be much more important than reducing housing costs.
- Spend at least 25% less than your after-tax income. Save or invest the difference conservatively.
- Eliminate debt.
The next four years are not going to be pretty.
Keep the popcorn popping,
Red Baron
I had to reread this to make sure he was talking about not having $3,000 cash to buy a home! You can’t buy CURTAINS for $3,000. How are you supposed to move into a home if you don’t have $3,000?
I think I was fairly typical. When we bought our home, we had 20% down…AND 6 months payments set aside, just in case. (And that wasn’t counting any 401k savings which we would never touch. Because it’s mostly judgement resistant–I think the IRS can get it–we’d never dip into it.) Oh, AND we made sure we bought something that either of us could make the payments on, if we had to.
I don’t think our situation was different from what most people did pre-bubble, when median house prices were no more than 4x annual income.
When we bought our house, even back in the old days, the RE agent and the loan guy chided us for “underbuying”. 15 years later, we have no mortgage. I should call that Realtor up and see how he’s doing. I’m sure glad we weren’t dumb enough to “stretch ourselves” like they recommended….
I had to re-read that too. If all people need is $3000 cash to buy a home, I was wondering if lending standards might still be a little too lax. If I were a lender in this market, I’d want the buyer to be truely invested in his purchase, with a solid 20% down payment. That way when prices come down another 20-30% and the buyer decides to let the bank have it, the bank won’t have to take such a steep loss.
Reuven,
When my wife put her professional career on hold to stay home and raise the children we brought into this world, some of her colleagues were aghast. They immediately assumed that her husband (me) must make a six-figure salary, which at the time, I didn’t. They asked how we were going to “make it” on just one salary, with kids, like this was an unsurmountable hardship. We’ve lived well since then, in all the ways that mattered, and found we could get by very nicely on my more-than-sufficient earnings, provided we lived a frugal, yet comfortable, lifestyle.
We also managed to put 20% down on our first house, in the late 1990s, and have also managed to build up substantial savings and investments, while maintaining zero debt. There’s no magic to it, just moderate self-discipline and trying to keep our priorities in order.
I learned how to be “frugal” from my parents. My father, after leaving the Navy, had a civil service job, and my mother was a full-time mom.
I had no idea we were poor! It seemed natural to me to get things like bicycles, etc, second hand. Why would you want a new bike for a kid? We went on vacations, by car, including a cross-country trip. My father never bought a new car in his life.
I’ve never had any debt in my life either, other than the 15 years I had a mortgage. I buy my cars new, but hold on to them for 10+ years. (At age 45, I’m on my third car.)
I don’t know how people today can spend so much money!
My dad was blue collar, mom was a stay-at-home mom, and we were a large family in a small 3 bd/1 ba house. We were so poor [chorus: "How poor were you?!] that one night a burglar broke in, and we robbed him! [Okay, I made that up]. I never recall feeling “poor” either, even though things were tight, because we never lacked for the things we actually needed [a pretty short list]. While all of our materially better-off neighbors were getting divorced, we always knew our folks were rock solid. I still pay cash for everything, and buy my cars a year or two old.
“Chronic $130-plus oil could bring changes in land-use patterns. It could hurt those far-flung commuter suburbs, like those in Yuba and Sutter counties, which were conceived when gas was cheaper but are now suffering some of the worst of the foreclosure crisis…‘Developers will certainly think twice about looking at land in far-out locations,’ said Dean Wehrli, VP with Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors in Elk Grove.”
I expect massive price declines in rural areas. Land prices should plummet accordingly.
Agreed,the exurbs are toasty burnt toast.
For those in the east or from smaller metro areas, a true exurb is at least 30 miles from the place where the majority of residents work.
I’ll give examples from LA and SLC.
LA,Pasadena, south bay=urban
Covina, Pomona, Santa Clarita, Thousand Oaks=suburban
Antelope Valley, Riverside, Sanberdu, Oxnard=exurban
SLC, Provo-Orem, Ogden=urban
Springville, Alpine, South Jordan, Bountiful=suburban
Payson, Tremonton, communities west of lakes=exurban
This is the travesty
Our government, dem and republican should have started preparing the US for expensive gas years ago.
If we had taxed gas to 5 bucks a gallon 10-15 years ago our housing would have been designed much differently, located closer to work or public transportation. We would have good public transportation, our cars and houses would be much more efficient.
The money collected from the gas tax could have been returned to the people with other tax breaks.
Hmm. Didn’t Jimmy Carter propose that very kind of policy? He had his hat handed to him in the next election. Someone once said, you get the government you deserve. Some do. Some don’t. I think the majority does.
IAT
I know it’s far-fetched, but imagine Jimmy Carter finally being recognized as one of our most intelligent, honest and truly concerned presidents…
IMHO, he was one of just a few presidents who had real integrity. Just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
(ducks head…)
One thing i noticed not many homes are NOT zoned for efficiency…..A lot of older 60year old 2 family homes like what i’m in has only 1 furnace controlled by the landlord. And not a lot of insulation, the worst part is the Heat DELAY effect of brick houses, the heat in the bricks migrate to the apartment so the AC has to stay on for hours after the outside temp drops.
Also there needs to be many many more park and rides. Decent sized parking areas on the outskirts of the city and buses to take you into town.
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Coincidentally, I’ve found many brand new homes by the big name builders often have insulation equal to that of a poorly constructed apartment building.”
I think that we’ll discover that older homes will be more desirable in a few years than houses built during the bubble.
I know everyone at every time thinks things used to be built better “in the old days”, but some of the construction I saw during the bubble was so shoddy. Don’t forget, nobody buying these houses had any intention of living there more than a few years, if they were to live in them at all, so nobody really cared about build quality. Heck, people waited in lines to buy homes before they were built.
Most of the homes I saw being built in Florida won’t last 30 years without a lot of renovations. I know a lot of people that have to put in elaborate pump systems to run the plumbing in the attic because the plumbing that’s encased in the slab failed after about 20 years….
Good post, reuven. I’ve said before on this blog that much of what has been built in Florida are basically profit-delivery systems for the energy companies.
Although not necessarily pleasant, the heat can at least be bearable or tolerable to some degree in Florida IF the house is built with the environment in mind. People talk about “saving energy”, but what about being able to live in your dwelling if the power goes out, period? You need a place with proper shade and ventilation, designed to catch the prevailing breezes. Some of the older towns in Florida had houses that were built that way on a grid of sorts.
People used to live in FL without A/C. You had wraparound, screened-in porches, and floorplans designed so if you open all the windows, air will flow through.
I think having a crawl-space helped, too. Cooler air beneath the house…
Back in the day, I worked on a project for the old Masonic temple in Miami, which I think was built in 1906. I was surprised that at high noon in the middle of the summer, the interior was almost cool. The floor was elevated and had a system of pipes that channelled cooler air from the ground up into the structure. Very interesting, never saw anything like it before or since.
“I know a lot of people that have to put in elaborate pump systems to run the plumbing in the attic because the plumbing that’s encased in the slab failed after about 20 years…”
That happened to my folks’ ’70s-built house - corrosion of the copper pipe in the slab. The piping through the attic wasn’t too much of a problem to install or maintain, but what was awful was how hot the water got. You had to tell every guest to let the tap run a minute or so before washing their hands, or they’d nearly scald themselves. To make it worse, the pipe in the attic was that dark gray stuff that was later found to be failure-prone and had to be completely replaced. Can’t imagine what a mess it would make if one of those joints were to break. If it were my house, I’d have seamless gutter put under the pipes and an alarm sensor at the point where the water poured down.
I thought all of the contractors had switched to PVC pipe (still in the slab), but a few months ago I was talking to a contractor’s rep who was proud of the fact that they use copper.
A delay is better that no delay, though, because theoretically you should be running that AC during off-peak hours, or even better, opening the windows for free cooling.
We rely mainly on natural cooling for the house. I open all the windows early in the morning to catch the cool air, then start to close them and shut the blinds/curtains when the sun hits. On really hot days we play in the basement or shady yard. Probably the only way I’m able to do this is because I don’t have a traditional 9-5 type job. Last month our electric bill was only $80.
Every 100 dollar increase in expenses knocks 15,000 off what you can afford to spend on a house. My best guess is once 130+ oil fully propagates through the system people are looking at increases from 200-400 dollars or 30-60k off the income they can spend on a house.
Sure they can cust some expenses but this is a pretty rigid decrease in purchasing power across all classes. And its on top of any bubble decreases or recession induced problems. So its a pretty safe bet that whatever price you thought was the bottom in your area taking 20k off makes sense to account for higher oil prices.
Lets say oil goes to 200+ then you have the same decrease in purchasing power for long term debt. And this wipes out any 20% downpayment you made assuming 130 was the top.
I’ve got a lot of posts on the http://www.theoildrum.com explaining that as oil prices rise people will reduce the amount of long term debt they take on instead of reducing consumption. Default long live short.
I think I can kind of see that. I think the average person can curb driving or food buying habits somewhat. But there are limits. People need to get to work, they need to visit people, they need to run errands, take their kids to school or activities, or they just need to get out of the house sometimes.
Personally I find it difficult to cut back on food. We have been shopping at FoodMax as much as possible, since we discovered that we can save hundreds a month compared to more popular supermarkets. We’ve cut back on eating out. And since the begining of the year I’ve been buying most of the kid’s clothes at Target, Mervyn’s, and Children’s Place clearance. I really don’t get why GYMB stock is as high as it is in this economy. If I have to spend so much more for gas and food than usual, there is no way I’m going to pay $28 for a pair of shorts for my little kids.
I’ve gotta say, recessions or just bad times in general can be a blessing in a way. My parents and my in-laws are all hard workers and savers. They’re not stingy by any means. But they went through very tough lean times in their lives. Bad times can really sharpen skills, make people more resourceful and better savers. And like my parents or inlaws, those skills served them well through the fat years.
Here’s an odd twist on how gas prices presumably are affecting our grocery shopping. Publix is a hugely popular grocery chain here in Florida. In the past couple of months, my wife has been noticing that were totally out of one perishable or another when she went shopping. Nothing else is different, so I’m guessing that, in an effort to minimize price increases, they are cutting the number of deliveries. The shortages seem to be in just dairy and meat, as far as she can tell, which would seem to be smart thinking on Publix’s part - customers have the option of stocking ahead a bit, including freezing the meat, whereas if the shortages were in veggies the customers presumably would start looking elsewhere. Since something has to give, and assuming my reasoning is correct, I think this is a pretty rational way to deal with current fuel costs.
I read that stores are stocking less produce and perishables to reduce waste and of course seed sales are up around 20% this year (people growing their own).
I’m noticing that produce in the stores here in my area is looking a bit, uhh… subprime. Several times I’ve taken a pass, even though my meager plantings aren’t nearly ready for harvest. At one high end store I found moldy green beans. I can already tell I’ll be spending more time at farmers markets this summer.
Kim, what you and Chip are posting about is what’s going to change the way we live. I see more patronage of farmers’ markets, more demand for fresh, local food and perhaps other locally produced items. I’m also wondering if WalMart and other retailers might not curtail their evening hours, perhaps putting an end to the 24 hour shopping binge. If fewer people are coming out at night, why spend on the energy and personnel to keep the places open?
I dunno, perhaps there’s some very positive things that could happen for the society as a result of all of this.
Palmy, that is a great idea.
No more 24 hour shopping.
Use evenings to stock shelves and deliver stuff.
Four day work weeks.
Teletravel and online meetings.
Rationed gas, food, electricity, and water.
Land of my father, let me eat corn chips!
Palmy - ditto Ouro’s comment - excellent idea. I imagine they want to consider shoppers who work shifts that force them to shop at night, but perhaps that can be accommodated if it’s not seven days a week.
Yes, Chip, I like Ouro’s recipe. Some really good things can come out of this whole mess. Perhaps a return to less of a frenzied pace, more dignity for people, more time for them to enjoy their families and communities, to realize what really matters, more time for them to get involved in what’s happening with their government, etc. I don’t like moving around, so I’m not thrilled about being mobile for a “job”, though.
The house we are renting has evaporative cooling and costs about four times less than refrigeration cooling. If you take the dew point temperature (43 degrees right now) and the out side air temperature (95 degrees) and average the two, you get a theoretical 69 degrees, which is quite comfortable. The thermostat says 72 degrees. It takes two cord of wood to heat for the winter, about $400, however the propane for hot water, clothes dryer and cooling is about $1400 per year. If we want to be efficient, we should have a wood stove with hot water heating ability (both cooking and space heating), and a clothes line. I carpool 40 miles one way to Fresno so carpooling saves a lot of money. I swear if we all carpooled four to a car, it would probably eliminate our need for foreign oil.
You could carpool FOURTEEN to a car and it wouldn’t eliminate the need for foreign oil. We need more solar, wind and nuclear. We need to drill (not alaska) and refine in this country and off our shores. We need to put a gov’t floor on oil prices, thru taxes. Rant off.
why not alaska?
Get the Bakken oil field up on Montana online. Heck, nationalize the dang thing, the sooner the better. One of the best uses of eminent domain, IMHO.
Fresno Dude,
Are you anywhere near Bass Lake?
Yes, Coarsegold
Does anyone know how efficient (or not) the “flash” water heaters are? If we were to build, we’d think about one of those for the area other than the kitchen and master bath, but only if they save a lot of energy or are otherwise advantageous.
If you mean tankless water heaters, I have heard from those who installed them that they save big money on energy costs.
If you take the dew point temperature (43 degrees right now) and the out side air temperature (95 degrees) and average the two, you get a theoretical 69 degrees, which is quite comfortable.
Hmm. Where I am, at a little before 9:00 AM, the dew point is 76 degrees and the outside air temp is 85, giving us a theoretical 80.5 degrees. Not quite as comfy, and it’s only going to get warmer as the day goes on.
Everyone here should look into joining a ” CSA ” ( community supported aguriculture). You are basiclly buying a share of a local farm in your community. You can do this with produce, meat, and poultry. Here is a link- http://www.localharvest.org/csa/ or type in ” CSA ” into any search engine. Having fresh food come directly from the farm and cutting out the middle man ( grocery store ) is the way of the future. Please ckeck it out.
Just my two cents in helping out.
“With an economy on shaky ground, I’d be much more keen to protect my mobility for job purposes than worrying about being able to insulate the house. What good is it to have a low home-heating bill if you have to move for work?”
What if you don’t want mobility? What if you want your kids to grow up in the same house, keep the same friends, and perhaps live in the same area someday?
A child of the “moral equivalent of war” geneation, I already changed the way I live from the start. For energy costs, the answer is a rowhouse that only has the square footage we need to live comfortably in a place where I can walk, use transit, or bike to things.
The house is a consumer good, not an investment, and you don’t want it to be more work that it is worth. Brick that doesn’t have to be painted, no yard to mow, etc.
As for mobility, there are more than 2 million jobs within a reasonable transit commute, mostly in Manhattan.
When I was younger I thought I might move to a mid-sized metro Upstate with lower housing prices when it came time to buy a house. I now realize those metros are too small. If you get a job, you may have to move to get the next job, unless you are in a very big, generic and ubiquitous field like retail store employee, teacher or nurse. A specific profession would be much smaller in a smaller place.
In any event Ben, doesn’t your current career imply the internet can stand in for mobility?
“What if you don’t want mobility? What if you want your kids to grow up in the same house, keep the same friends, and perhaps live in the same area someday?”
What you want and what is reality may be at odds.
I grew up in Fresno, went to CSU, Fresno, got my degree and had to move a couple hundred miles away in 1985 in order to work in my field. I’m used to economic circumstances forcing families apart. I have friends who stayed in Fresno for the same reasons you want (keep families together). They are surviving - that’s as much as I can say. But now the ones who had kids are watching their educated adult offspring leaving for Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco, just like I did and like two of my siblings did back in the 1980s. There was even a newspaper article about this in the LA Times a couple of years ago, of top high school graduates in Fresno schools vowing to never settle back in the Valley after they get their college degrees.
Some people on this blog sneer at the idea of living in large cities when the economy goes south. However you bring up another reason to raise a family in a large city (large, by my standards, is one million people). There is enough variety in jobs to keep adult educated offspring nearby. Naturally, New York City is the number one example. I know people in Los Angeles who stay in the area and get ahead in their careers by jumping from company to company, although they sometimes have to commute 30 miles each way for a few years. They have parents, brothers, and sisters the area and don’t want to leave their families.
Both my parents have passed away years ago. After they died, that’s when I really became a road warrier! I can e-mail my friends. I still keep in touch with people I worked with twelve years ago.
IMO, there is no middle class anymore. This has been a decades long war against the middle class, and I had some notion of this back when I started out in the 1980s. You want your family to stay together, try having a household with only one breadwinner. Very rare these days, very common in the days when I was a kid.
In many cases with both parents working and not having time to raise the children properly, the kid gets into some trouble, becomes a dropout or a slackard. That’s when it’s also desirable to kick the kid out of the house at 18 and tell him to move to the big city.
Unless/until the imaginary friend (man in white or whatever you call it) directs the the best geologist to a giant Ghawar field right below his feet, I say that suburbia, exurbia, and rural area real estate is comatose.
Yes Ben, higher commodities, flat wages, and no wage increases. The Kudlow types are on crack to think that real estate is at a bottom. They are also dreaming when they say the only reason oil prices are going up is because of the printing press. They don’t want to read “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew Simmons. They are ostriches.
In the Phoenix area, Chandler Mall and Fiesta Mall are trying to set up bus service from the Phoenix light rail stations in west Mesa and in Tempe (light rail service starts in December) to the Malls. Smart move. They will get shoppers from Tempe, maybe from downtown Phoenix residents. Also in the Anthem link of http://www.azcentral.com there was an article on how the high gas prices are affecting Anthem residents, many of whom commute more than 25 miles each way to work.
I have last month’s issue of Wired magazine. It has a feature touting large density high rises near mass transportation in warm climates. Reasoning: It takes less energy to cool places than it takes to heat places. New England and the midwest states are places where you have to raise the interior temperature by 60 degrees or more to be comfortable, while in Phoenix you have to lower temperatures 30 degrees. Residents in cold climates use up more oil than residents of hot climates.
It does not surprise me that Phoenix lofts are still priced at more than $300 per square feet on the average. Pretty high, but a lot of these lofts are in the urban central area close enough to the light rail. I’m keeping watch on the prices of the lofts.
There are other cities with good transportation in place with urban lofts nearby - LA and Portland are other examples.
Palm Beach:
Million-dollar homes (at the most bubbly) are being short-saled or having open houses. Recycle bins outside these former 100k-ish homes are generally filled with Heinekin bottles on recycle day.
Oh, and that open house? For prospective tenants. Converted to an assisted-living facility.
Tri-Rail is reporting massive parking problems. Ridership is up 28% over last year this time.
Lots of patrol cars on the road, giving out tickets for things normally ignored. Revenue stream?
One local county (St Lucie) is installing some hydro-generator kind of thing on patrol cars to see how much it will save them in gas on patrol cars for their cops.
Hot sweaty climates emit less CO2 into the atmosphere than cold climates:
http://tinyurl.com/5qh92p
Urban living is kinder to the environment than the suburban lifestyle:
http://tinyurl.com/5g67mx
I’m still aghast that saving 3,000 dollars for a home is deemed out of range for folks. If they can’t affored a down payment of 15 to 20%, then, really, they need to face the fact they probably should not be, maybe cannot realistically afford to be, homeowners. Owning a house is EXPENSIVE for a lot of folks (ie, those who don’t have the carpentry, plumbing, painting, landscaping and lawn maintenance, floor-laying, etc, skills or health to DIY).
I’d think that folks who manage to save a down payment of a goodly amount have shown they can save, ergo, they can save for the new roof, new paint jobs, tree trimming services, new gutters, plumbing work and other things that go wrong and need to be kept up.
If you can’t save 3K, how the hell you gonna keep that home in some sort of decent shape? Dang.
M.