The Housing Bubble

Lad, you lucky duck, the trees around here have too many branches for hammocks and most are too short, like my little buddy Cactus Rat (even the army wouldn’t have him). Sounds like a cruise!

Maybe it was the bird sheriff, executing a foreclosure eviction!

The bird world can be extremely heartless.

You should see what cowbirds do — they lay eggs in the nests of smaller songbirds to be raised by the other momma bird. (Some species are better at recognizing and disposing of the alien egg or hatchling than others. Some species are remarkably oblivious.)

The smaller songbird chicks are out-competed for food by the bigger cowbird chick, and often die from starvation. Cowbird chicks are also known to push the other chicks out of the nest.

Why not, I believe I saw a possum and the family on her back!
lol

Hip, those little buggers are CUTE!!! Can you send me a couple???

Growing up in 78704, they’re probably too hip to go anywhere in Utah other than maybe Park City during the Sundance film festival.

It was very exciting to see them. They are cute but also kind of creepy and definitely seem prehistoric. They don’t hear or see or smell very well and it’s kind of like “they’re there but no one’s home.”

They came up from kind of a wooded canyon behind our house. Munch munch munch across the yard and through the garden, chomping grubs, their heads kind of vibrating with the grub-munching. They seemed as much like armored grub-gobbling machines as living creatures.

Those are some cute armadillos!

Haven’t seen those since I was a kid on our cross-country camping trips.

Thanks for the photos.

Here’s an alternative energy source:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4133668.ece

The April 2008 US gov report and N.D. both estimate that there is less than 4 billion barrels of oil to ercover in the Bakken field. ie less than ANWR.

You may wanna recheck that. I happened to have just been perusing the ND version of their Resources Dept last week and the latest information reduced the amount that was considered recoverable from 400billion to 360billion.

It hasn’t been considered as low as 4billion in many years. I think you need to re-read your sources.

“Some oil, like the 10.4 billion barrels estimated to be recoverable in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, remains off limits — as a nature conservation measure…”

Palmy - no one, it seems, recalls the reason that the US of A purchased Alaska in the first place. It wasn’t for a national park or to save a herd of caribou - it was for the vast amount of presumed natural resources it contained.

I like the current bumper sticker:

Drill Here. Drill Now. Pay less.

NIMBYs are going to have to suck it up.

I keep hearing about this but data seems pretty light.
A friend sent me a link to a DOT webpage that said cars use 20% more fuel at 65MPH than at 55MPH. I had to point out that cars also travel about 20% more distance at 65MPH so that does not mean anything.

If the government web site could say that MPG dropped by what ever percentage then it should say that.

If I’m remembering correctly; last time we tried this congestion got worse so any gains in efficiency were killed by increased congestion. Now, hybrids do well in that enviroment but the purpose was actual conservation not justmaking hybrid owners, aka me, feel good.

Behold the powers of innumeracy!

MPG has two variables: miles covered and gasoline consumed.

MPH has one variables miles covered during a standard one hour period.

You are conflating MPG and MPH. The DOT study implies that time factor is factored in. Driving at 55mph may take more time, but upon reaching one’s destination, less fuel is consumed.

Cars are even more fuel efficient @ 35 mph. Why not drop the speed limit to 35? How about 25?

Mike in Miami,
We have in the LA freeways. Better yet, I believe its down to 25 mpg. Slow enough to do target practice.
lol

‘Cars are even more fuel efficient @ 35 mph. Why not drop the speed limit to 35? How about 25?”

The efficiency curve is discontinuous at the transitions between gears. The upper gear on most cars won’t give much if any torque below about 50-55 mph (meaning a tougher time getting up a hill or accelerating to pass or avoid some sort of obstacle or errant other driver). In the lower gears, the engine is turning more often per distance traveled, which offsets the efficiency gained by lower drag forces at lower speeds.

Drop the speed limit to zero.

A tank of gas should last forever.

Car and Driver magazine proposed a “30 mpg Speed Limit” back in the 70s.

The rationale being that, rather than punish everyone with a 55mph speed limit, set the rural Interstate’s speed limit at the speed that a specific vehicle gets 30mpg, or better

(30 mpg too radical? Set it at 25mpg, or 35mpg, just pick a number).

Gives a major incentive for people to buy fast, fuel efficient cars. If you are concerned about safety, then mandate performance standards for handling, and braking at the higher speeds.

This won’t solve the immediate issue, but would start helping a few years out.

At 65 mph I get 43-45 mpg in my non hybrid.

At 55 mph I get 62 mpg in the same car.

People always want to buy something to make their problem go away, as taking the foot off the accelerator is too inconvenient.

Sure, 55 gets better gas mileage than 70. Probably 10-15% for people who don’t religiously use cruise control. But I was here when it was created and it won’t work be edict.

What probably would work, well enough, is if information sighs were posted, Burma Shave style, that told drivers what they will get. Such as, if you get 20 Mpg at 70, then you’ll get 23-24 MPG at 55. I’m sure there’s some snazzy way to show the value of the change.

People are changing anyway. Traffic from Orlando to I-75, along I-4, is slower than I’ve seen in more than twenty years. My BIL, who drives the opposite route confirms that. And trucks are going a lot slower.

200 years and 3USD per barrel? I doubt it.

While ‘proven’ reserves in Alaska are about 4 billion barrels (18% os the US total of 21 billion barrels), ‘recoverable’ reserves are certainly greater. At current US consumption of 21 million barrels per day this country uses about 7.5 billion barrels of crude each year. 200 years would be about 1,500 billion barrels. You are claiming that Alaska has greater reserves than the total world’s total proven reserves.

Source:http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/crude_oil_natural_gas_reserves/cr.html

Untrue…how about providing a source before making a claim like that?

***

Effect of ANWR oil on prices would be minor
ENERGY REPORT: Alaska would be a big benefactor, though.

By ERIKA BOLSTAD
ebolstad@adn.com

Published: May 23rd, 2008 12:44 AM
Last Modified: May 23rd, 2008 01:55 PM

WASHINGTON — If Congress were to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, crude oil prices would probably drop by an average of only 75 cents a barrel, according to Department of Energy projections issued Thursday…It estimates that if Congress agreed to open ANWR this year, Alaska oil could hit the market in about 10 years.

http://www.adn.com/front/story/414808.html

Your assertions, as far as I can true, are not true. No one knows how much oil is at ANWR and North Slope production has been declining for years (source: anwr.org, a website in favor of drilling).

Estimates are in the “billions of barrels” range at ANWR. The US uses about 20 million barrels per day (source: http://maps.unomaha.edu/Peterson/funda/Sidebar/OilConsumption.html), so if, say, there are 200 billion barrels of oil at anwr that would be enough to last 26 years.

I’m not necessarily opposed to ANWR drilling, but we should be sure to recognize the facts.

There ain’t no 200 billions BO there. Take it from someone who’s explored up there.

None of y’all bothered to include this paragraph from that report:

“It comes a day after the Department of Interior issued an inventory that found 60 percent of federal lands that hold potential sources of natural gas and oil are closed to leasing.”

Congress can do anything it want to with this. Until we vote them out of office it will not change. We can create term limits but getting enough people pissed off to vote against incumbents, but it’s an uphill struggle. Billboards would be a great start.

Whatever can be done and isn’t done, is because Congress blocked it. They they lie to you and describe it as a problem they intend to fix. They stole your wallet and they promise to help you look for it.

Speaking of not making a difference, Honda will shortly deliver its first hydrogen fueled vehicles to US customers.
“Honda expects to lease out a “few dozen” units this year and about 200 units within a year. In California, a three-year lease will run $600 a month, which includes maintenance and collision coverage. Among the first customers are actress Jamie Lee Curtis…The biggest obstacles standing in the way of wider adoption of fuel cell vehicles are cost and the dearth of hydrogen fuel stations. For the Clarity’s release in California, Honda said it received 50,000 applications through its Web site but considered only buyers living near hydrogen fuel stations in Torrance, Santa Monica and Irvine.”
Coming never to a dealer near you. The rest of us can walk, ride a bike or get a horse.

Because the cost of developing those ANWR fields is cheaper than letting them sit fallow. We already have pipeline and infrastructure just a few miles away.

Coming never to a dealer near you. The rest of us can walk, ride a bike or get a horse.

Progress has to start somewhere. No one releases a product without putting it through alpha and beta testing, which of necessity have limited scope.

It’s good to see that the Japanese are willing to plan ahead, even if the Americans refuse to.

Hydrogen is not planning ahead. Hydrogen is not a source of energy, it has to be made…by burning oil! Or coal, or wood. Hydrogen is really an eco thing, not a fuel thing.

A much more feasable plan, is to build 200 nuclear reactors, and make oil from air. At least you get oil from that!

With 200 nuclear reactors, trains could run on electricity instead of diesel, and large numbers of electric cars might be feasible. That couldn’t happen for about 20 years.

“That couldn’t happen for about 20 years.”

21 years, if we wait another year to get started.

It’s low oil prices that encourage dependence on foreign oil, by encouraging high domestic demand and discouraging development of alternate energy sources.

That’s exactly why you got the era of the SUV starting in the mid-80’s, and the lack of any efforts to find alternate energy technologies, when the price of oil plummeted from its peak around 1980.

restricting drilling and refining

Refining is a consumer of oil, not a producer.

It’s low oil prices that encourage dependence on foreign oil ..

There has to be a few disconnected neurons in my brain or something.. what you said makes no sense to me.

It seems like you’re suggesting that if we were to use more of our own oil, which is far cheaper than importing (and there’d be no war to pay for), this cheaper source would somehow encourage foreign oil dependence?

I think he’s just saying (if I may be so bold to paraphrase for you yogurt) that necessity is the mother of invention. With low oil prices, an alternative energy source doesn’t feel so necessary.

So we put the search off once again while still depleting the world’s oil resources at an ever increasing rate.

Carrieann, and what you said addresses my original point.

Necessity is the mother of invention. High oil prices might cause consumer hardship but they do not evoke a sense of necessity. (not to mention the fact that there is no alternative energy technology(ies) that can replace oil.)

High oil prices maintain oil reserves and extend the ‘Age of Oil’ by slowing consumption and promoting conservation.
A large reserve of oil makes the switch to alternative energies less critical and less imperitive.

If you want momma-invention to get busy, get rid of the world’s oil reserves. Use it.. Burn it up. Run out of oil. That is what will force invention.

our own oil, which is far cheaper than importing

Unless you are advocating a Venezuela-style government subsidy, locally drilled oil will cost exactly the same as imported oil. It is a global commodity traded on world markets.

If you restrict oil imports by duties or quotas, it will actually make domestically produced oil (or anything else) more expensive.

Which is exactly why the US restricts imports of ethanol.

“If you want momma-invention to get busy, get rid of the world’s oil reserves. Use it.. Burn it up. Run out of oil. That is what will force invention.”

Perhaps the difference in our philosophies is that I believe we can get to the “necessity” stage prior to the shutting down the city black-out or factory shut-down stage. Just my humble opine.

Everywhere I go I hear stories as old as a generation ago of patents bought up by big oil. I guess its my belief that the base knowledge for alternative energy already exists. The only change I see that we need is that certain “parties” need to embrace that knowledge instead of suppressing it. I really can’t imagine that those with the capital (and the patents!) will let our nation come to a complete shut down (demand destruction) before allowing these concepts to come to the fore. It just wouldn’t be good for their cashflow.

///ah, thank you for allowing me that tin foil hat moment

I’ve heard the same thing, Carrie Ann, and agree with attacking our energy problems NOW instead of “sometime in the future.”

Domestic drilling would be useful to have on hand in case of emergencies, but we should be working 24/7 on finding alternative energy sources — and **practical** conservation ideas.

“I think that improving CAFE standards would be more beneficial than drilling.”

Why does it have to be either/or? Why can’t we do both?

Taxes would be the most beneficial. With gas near 4 bucks a gallon the US has seen a 5 % drop in consumption. Now tax that up to 8 bucks a gallon and use the money to lower income, payroll corporate taxes ect. You’ll see the US oil consumption collapse, so by the way will the price of oil thus offsetting the tax. US keeps more of it’s money, Saudi Arabia and Iran get less. Greg Mankew a republican economist has advocated this. Don’t pick technologies just increase the price and people will figure the best way to cut their costs.

Here in Tucson, with gas retailing at just over four smackers a gallon, I’m seeing less traffic on the road. Anyone else seeing this in their neck of the woods?

Here in N. Ohio, its painfully clear that traffic is down by a lot. I’m not sure that its just due to $4.00/g gas. I see less shopping traffic wherever I go. I’m even worried that my fav ice cream shoppe might close; record temps here in the last week and no business. Two years ago, couldnt pull into the place until someone pulled out. Last year, place was nearly always packed. This week, three cars in the lot, zero wait for a drive up order, at high noon, 90 degrees plus. If the gegaw buying crowd has given up ice cream and custard, whats left to cut??

The oil companies are Peak Oilers too. Why spend billions to build a refinery if there is nothing to refine in, say 10 years? Better to squeeze an extra 10 years out of existing refineries. And the high gas price and profit is just a collateral bonus.

Check out insider sales at the big oil majors.

I’ve never understood this argument.

The populace having weapons has never stopped American cops from acts of brutality, just as police generally behave themselves better than US cops in a few other Western countries despite the population not having many weapons. It’s more about training and culture, and the militarization of US law enforcement in recent years is not a trend in the right direction.

Owning a weapon lets you do more damage if you choose to shoot it out with criminals or police, some Red Dawn foreign-invasion fantasy or a mass insurrection. But other than those rare fight-to-the-death situations, if you brandish a weapon with the intention of restraining law enforcement from doing what they want it will end unpleasantly for you. Cops can always respond with more force than an individual posseses. They don’t walk away and leave you alone just because you’re carrying a pistol or shotgun, they come back with a SWAT team.

Just saying that if cops take to sniping citizens that the citizens might decide that its time to shoot back.

Here in Colorado, a Hispanic man in one of the poorer sections of Denver (I believe) was shot dead when cops staged a post-midnight “no-knock entry.” Trouble was, the scuzzball police informant (aren’t they all?) who provided the address of this alleged “drug dealer,” gave the wrong address, and the police sergeant who signed off on the arrest warrant never bothered to check for easily-verifiable details such as the fact that the homeowner had a different name than the alleged drug dealer. When the cops kicked down his door and stormed in, yelling “police!” (of course, it would NEVER occur to home-invasion crews to use THAT tactic, the homeowner did what any father and husband would do (he was both) and opened fire on the invaders with his legally-owned handgun. He was shot dead in a hail of bullets.

The police sergeant who signed the bogus warrant admitted purjury in the post-incident whitewash, er, investigation, but pled the charge down to a misdameander and was allowed to stay on the force. He was recently indicted for fraud, not surprisingly.

Far too many cops are thuggish and unprincipled, but resisting arrest, or even legitimately protecting yourself, is liable to end in tragedy for you and your family.

You can’t have sustained price inflation with wages staying flat (or going down if you count outsourced jobs). Prices will be forced to correct, i.e. deflate. The last time we had a situation like that it was (gasp)…the Housing Bubble!!

Our standard of living is no longer subsidized by the trade imbalance. Instead of hoarding our dollars, our trade partners are getting rid of them by competing with us for the same consumables.

Deflation.

I’m SO sorry to have to break it to you

Hey barbarus,

Let me speak for myself, how about that?

This weekend I was looking at a house that’s down almost $200k. And over the life of a 25 year mortgage that decrease would save me another $600k in interest. But if I was a serial commuter, I might pay an extra $5,000 in gas this year. Wow, that’s raging inflation.

As I’ve explained before at length, it’s just as likely current oil prices are a result of collusion, long-term misplaning and government interference that could easily be reversed.

Anyway, if you are so sure that oil will be at a permanent $300 a barrel and gold will be $3,000 an ounce, why aren’t you taking extra jobs and pouring that money into commodities? I am making my bets on what I think will happen. You make yours and we’ll see who wins..

deflation. Trillions of dollars that were printed in the last 5 years are disappearing.

Exactly, but my theory says we might have *decades* of unwinding to do. Should be interesting…

The problem is that the trillions of dollars of vanishing debt/wealth/money etc. has little tangible value when housing prices are STILL grossly overpriced. Oh, but now we also have $4.00 a gallon gas and raging price increases in everything while salaries go nowhere.

Yes, the house I might want to buy may be down by $50,000 while my yearly expenses have gone up by $2,000, but until I can actually BUY that house (which is still overpriced by $100,000), the only difference I see is the increase in living expenses.

The masses are experience inflation, while the pigs at the top are experiencing deflation.

Imagine us paying nothing down on a $60 fill up @ the gas station, just like you’d do on a $500k house, until a year ago?

What you are calling inflation, the rise in price of food and energy, is not inflation in itself but rather it is the result of inflation.
This inflation, this abundant supply of money, that is translating itself into higher food and energy prices is not what is currently happening but is what has happened for many years previous to last summer. Those years were the years of monatary expansion; those were the years when the money supply exploded. This money created over these years is still out there in circulation and is currently bidding up prices. But all this rapid monetary expansion ended last summer.
This bunch of money will disappear once it circulates its way into the banks and onto the banks balance sheets. This will make money scarce and thus more valuable.

At least this is how I see it.

I guess you’d have to answer the question, “what is money”?

“Inflation in food and energy”‘

Not exactly, I don’t think. Rising commodity prices does not necessarily indicate inflation–if market fundamentals (supply and demand) support a new equilibrium.

As prices increase for food and energy, consumers will cut back spending in other areas–in other words, their basket of goods has not grown larger (because of stagnant wages), it’s just been rebalanced. If simply inflation were behind the price increases, then the overall basket of goods would remain unchanged and wage increases would more or less offset the commodity price increases.

As I see it, there are at least three distinct concomitant economic forces affecting food and energy in USD, but none of them are precisely defined as inflation (also some are the consequence of it):
- increasing demand with stagnant or diminishing supply
- weakening dollar (indirectly related to inflation caused by low FFR)
- a speculative commodities bubble caused by the low rates and inflation expectations

What we’re seeing looks and smells a lot like inflation, but it’s a different animal than what we’ve seen before. As Milton Friedman said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary problem.” And there are other factors besides monetary conditions that are mostly driving the food and energy increases, IMHO.

I don’t know what to call it, but I don’t think that “stagflation” fits either…

The Fed clearly has rates too low. The money isn’t flowing into keeping housing prices high, if that was ever a goal. Its flowing into commodities now.

I’m calling it a bubble but not sure if that is the right term. Not sure where the prices should be.

Bubbles in commodities end badly with problems in the agricultural community. Which ends up causing actual food shortages… much worse than an over supply in housing.

People starved in the great depression.

Ok, this was the first place I could respond on this very interesting thread. I’m hoping someone can help me w/some confusion on the inflation/deflation argument.

I understand that there is credit contraction w/all the bank/lender write-offs but isn’t the counterforce what is happening at the TAF window w/billions being loaned out, and what happens when corp sell more stocks, bonds? Things get so fuzzy for me here. Are deflationists arguing the write-offs are a much higher figure than the total of new loans being made?

CORRECTION:
Just one person’s opinion who is older.

Where do I sign up for an English language course for native speakers.
lol

“It appears that (Tim Russert) burned the candle at both ends.”

Jim Rogers, the 1970s long distance runner also experienced a fatal heart attack in his 50s. Sometimes inherited issues trump how well we take care of ourselves.

Long distance running is tough on the body!

Hell yeah!

The long-distance runner was Jim Fixx, not Jim Rogers. Fixx had a family history of heart disease.

because we are a village?

One that’s well-stocked with idiots.

What are these $40k in freebees that $40k earners get that $100k earners don’t?

I’m curious because my income is close $40k - perhaps I’m missing out on doubling my income with all these “freebees”. I certainly don’t get discounts at the grocery store, my apartment rental, or my university tuition.

Conservative leaning voters like you made this happen by insisting on minimal regulations for business, and now you want to go on a pitchfork run? Why not just admit that you were wrong and let the regulators do their thing to get markets back under control.

“Conservative leaning voters like you”

BWAHAHAHAHA! I voted for Nader in the last election. You just decided you had a wild hair up your azz about me because I object to the use of street drugs. From there on out, you couldn’t even comprehend a dang thing I posted.

A vote for Nader in 2000 was a vote for Bush.

Moleman,

This investment banks going after commodities is based on the Fed lending money at some artificially low guess rate proposed by central bankers.

That institution is from some famous democratic president in that reaches of the past. And it comes from the loose money policies that were so well beloved by democrats past.

While deregulation isn’t helping this is a double helping of what democrats loved in the past, easy money.

If we got rid of the Fed this wouldn’t be such a problem.

The lending to banks and the commodity bubble are just another less obvious way to socialize the losses. Inflation in all essentials is taxing Americans in order to keep the bankers afloat.

… let the regulators do their thing to get markets back under control.

The regulators have been doing that all along. That’s the problem. Their job isn’t what you think it is. All you “my team, your team” cheerleaders have sold yourself and your children down the river but you still think your new owners are acting in your best interest. They aren’t.

So the investment banks waltz up to the Federal Reserve window, borrow umpteen billions of taxpayer money at 2%, and then go out and run up the price of commodities with the money, probably using next-generation quant algorithms to make sure they are better hedged this time.

I’m with Palmetto, I’ve got a pitchfork. Think I’ll trade it for a stainless steel one, so I can wait for them in the rain. Feathers are easy to get. Does Home Depot sell any quick-mix substitute for tar?

I kept my sewing machine and serger.
Since I am petite I have to hem most of my clothes.
Sometimes I shop in the young girl’s department at Target. They fit better.

I had a similar experience with tuna. Before I had kids I used to take my boat offshore and catch my own. It turned out that it was way cheaper to buy it in the supermarket. Other than my wife who pointed this fact out to me, …..who knew?

Jwhite,
you got there ahead of me, Bittman’s receipe is great. Also Faster’s suggestion to check out Indian grocery stores for beans, spices, and some vegetables is terrific too. The prices are much lower.

*sigh* If we only HAD an Indian store in the Middle of Nowhere…

For dried stuff and spices, I refer you to this glorious invention known as the Internet.

Ever heard of it?

I grow pistachios, black walnuts, hazlenuts, and pecans here at 4000′ in the S. Sierra. Keep in mind that nut trees are large and take up a lot of your space if you’re suburban. Make sure to buy self-fertilizing varieties if you can and purchase them as mature as possible…they take up to ten years+ to produce. But once they do, you’re set. I’m very fond of mine.

Ah, Brian, I feel for you. Even if you did manage to ferret out the movie’s Secret Message.

I’ve successful avoided the film so far. We’ll see if that good luck holds.

Ah, Brian, I feel for you.

No need to cry for me. It was a great compromise. I spent the daylight hours of the weekend out on the water and went to a movie on Saturday night. Both of us were happy.

NOOD Regatta

Photos

Crazy racing, but lots of fun. We ended up in the middle of the pack though

That looks like fun, win or no win.

Just because someone believes in creationism doesn’t mean they don’t value advanced scientific abilities. There are lots of gifted scientists out there doing great work who also believe in creationism.

the current administration has intentionally replaced learned men & women with know nothing evangs, all across the board…

Hard to believe we were once a nation that believed in progress.

That was when we believed in GOD.

Here’s one engineer you couldn’t pay enough to move to Germany. And there’s probably at least another 10 or 20 million just like me. There’s no brain drain, you’ll have to make up some other excuse to bash your favorite whipping boys. Sheesh.

Believing in God has nothing to do with progress. It wasn’t until scientists and politicians started questioning the Church that we moved from the Dark Ages to the Renaissance.

Speaking of “creationism and other delusions” how about all the wasted emphasis on global warming? I can agree that we need to get back to more useful scientific pursuits.

Climate change is real, creationism not so much.

There are lots of gifted scientists out there doing great work who also believe in creationism.

Care to name a few? How about a Nobel Prize Winner or two?

“Climate change is real, creationism not so much.”

So said the believer. Praise be!

And people like me who assert that, we really don’t know that much for sure about either of the two, catch it with both barrels. From both sides. Of both debates.

“Just because someone believes in creationism doesn’t mean they don’t value advanced scientific abilities”

What you mean is they like to eat the fruit that science produces which is not the same thing as valuing the scientific process. Creationism is the antithesis of science, it’s sole purpose is to confuse the lazy and the stupid flock. How can religous leaders and texts appear all knowing if they are proven wrong again and again by science. If they are not perceived as all knowing then how can they tell the flock who to vote for and what issues are important, why should the flock give them money.

We all have our blinders. Every single one of us has areas where the evidences don’t support our most deeply held convictions. Some people’s blinders happen to be in the area of life origins, on both sides of the debate. For others, it’s climate. Most of us have multiple blinders in the areas of investing and real estate.

The notion that one specific set of blinders in life renders an individual useless in other unrelated areas that also require a depth of reasoning and cognitive skills, is ludicrous. If that were the case, none of us would be here, as our species would have been extinct long ago. Likewise is the notion that any of us are truly objective and rational in all things.

Regardless of what one thinks of Christianity, the admonition about removing the board in one’s eye before commenting on the splinters of others, seems pretty appropriate to this discussion. The pursuit of true knowledge begins with humility.

The pursuit of true knowledge begins with humility.

The pursuit of true knowledge begins with the scientific process, examining and re-examining the facts, and challenging those who say they speak the truth without providing verifiable evidence.

The scientific process as we know it is not that old, only a few centuries. Rightly or wrongly, it was originally put into widespread use by people who mostly believed that the universe was created and was therefore knowable. Were those people all hopelessly misguided, and did we have no true knowledge before that time?

Do you challenge those today that would tell you “The debate is over”, or “the science is settled”, no matter where that challenge may lead, and no matter how uneasy that might make you feel, because of who it might put you in alliance with?

itsf,

“Here’s one engineer you couldn’t pay enough to move to Germany. And there’s probably at least another 10 or 20 million just like me.”

BLS estimates engineers held 1.5 million jobs in the US.

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos027.htm

itsf,

“Here’s one engineer you couldn’t pay enough to move to Germany. And there’s probably at least another 10 or 20 million just like me….”

The BLS estimates that engineers held 1.5 million jobs in the US in 2006.

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos027.htm

However many of us there are, I hear of none, anywhere talking about bailing for Europe because that’s where things are happening. No trade articles, nada. I’m just calling BS on some pretty lame bashing.

There’s always mercenaries that will go to Iraq or Saudi Arabia or North Slope or wherever for the $$$. Me, I wouldn’t risk it.

Every year or two, the engineering rags get all worked up - either it’s “shortage!” or “glut!”. Something for a sensational headline. There’s always been plenty of good engineering work to go around, if you’re willing to learn new things. Given the lack of critical thinking taught in schools these day’s this 50yo ain’t worried a bit. I’m staying put.

“Care to name a few? How about a Nobel Prize Winner or two?”

These scientists are nobel winners that believe(d) in God:
Max Planck Nobel Laureate in Physics
Erwin Schrodinger Nobel Laureate in Physics
Werner Heisenberg Nobel Laureate in Physics
Robert Millikan Nobel Laureate in Physics
Charles Hard Townes Nobel Laureate in Physics
Arthur Schawlow Nobel Laureate in Physics
William D. Phillips Nobel Laureate in Physics
William H. Bragg Nobel Laureate in Physics
Guglielmo Marconi Nobel Laureate in Physics
Arthur Compton Nobel Laureate in Physics
Arno Penzias Nobel Laureate in Physics
Nevill Mott Nobel Laureate in Physics Anglican
Isidor Isaac Rabi Nobel Laureate in Physics
Abdus Salam Nobel Laureate in Physics
Antony Hewish Nobel Laureate in Physics
Joseph H. Taylor, Jr. Nobel Laureate in Physics
Alexis Carrel Nobel Laureate in Medicine and Physiology
John Eccles Nobel Laureate in Medicine and Physiology
Joseph Murray Nobel Laureate in Medicine and Physiology
Ernst Chain Nobel Laureate in Medicine and Physiology
George Wald Nobel Laureate in Medicine and Physiology
Ronald Ross Nobel Laureate in Medicine and Physiology
Derek Barton Nobel Laureate in Chemistry
Christian Anfinsen Nobel Laureate in Chemistry
Walter Kohn Nobel Laureate in Chemistry
Richard Smalley Nobel Laureate in Chemistry

Newt,
the question yogurt posed was in answer to this assertion:

“There are lots of gifted scientists out there doing great work who also believe in creationism.”

“Care to name a few? How about a Nobel Prize Winner or two?”

Your list should be limited to those who have embraced creationism.
Try again.

itsf,
For an engineer not to care whether the number is 15-20million or 1.5 million is pretty funny.
As for your views on science, you may be pleased to know you represent mainstream Islamic thinking on the subject:

In the Muslim world today, most of the focus on the relation between Islam and science involves scientific interpretations of the Quran (and sometimes the Sunna) that claim to show these sources make prescient statements about the nature of the universe, biological development and other phenomena later confirmed by scientific research, and proof of the divine origin of the Qur’an. (from Wiki, Islam and Science).

spike, yer splittin’ hairs. Many of these guys belonged to organized religions, so I think it’s safe to say they also believed in creationism.

How can oil, or any liquid, be pumped up 4.5 miles? The pressures and stresses must be incredible.

RE: You should hear him trash talk the people responsible for the recent nuclear screw ups.

Yup, it only takes losing track of a nuclear bomb to get fired in Washington.

No wonder nothing changes.

Frick, I broke it. Should be fixed.

By the way Mole Man, you reak of grad-studentism, as if the real world can be changed through reading Dick Hebdige books.

I’d be shocked if you’re over the age thirty and pay for everything in your life.

They’re slow as dirt. I like to blast past them on the street as they meander along the sidewalk.

I should add that I’m doing this “blast past” stuff on a bicycle. And I’m not a fast rider.

il bello made by flyscooters — looks like they’re made in China.

Perhaps I could sell you a house instead?

The “classic” scooter styling is easy to copy, kind of like a McMansion. Your mileage will be about the same with both products. A more reputable brand will probably also have problems, but there is a warranty and company to back it up.

Ask the people who bought those chinese tires if they’re ever getting their money back.

Piaggio has a model starting at $1,899, the Fly50.

http://www.flyscooters.com/
510.652.7722
info@flyscooters.com

People who throw stones should avoid visiting hookers.

People who live in glass houses should avoid having hookers over.

So to sum up here; Don’t get stoned in a glass house with a hooker. Sage advice.

There are many other reasonable sage alternatives:

Don’t throw stones while being stoned with a hooker in a glass house.

Don’t get stoned with a hooker in a glass house if you plan to undress.

Don’t stone a hooker in a glass house, whether stoned or not.

Don’t hook up with a stoner in a glass house.

… etc.

Don`t drink from a glass with a hooker in a stone house.

How are you gonna get from here to there? And they’ll have guns too!

Maybe he has a private jet fitted with auxiliary fuel tanks & staffed by a crew 24/7, waiting in his backyard. You know not the day nor the hour.

If I had all that I wouldn’t be wasting my time worrying.

The theme from Goldfinger keeps running through my head. I wonder what his pilot(ess) looks like?

Well, if you can please the pilot(ess) with a different kinda gun, artificial even, you’ll get the plane, the pilot(ess) and the gold.

“How are you gonna get from here to there? And they’ll have guns too!”

There are these things called planes and ships that carry you from one place to another, and it might come as a shock to you, but the rest of the 1st world ain’t so hot on having their citizens armed and dangerous…

Same in the 2nd and 3rd world. It seems most governments like to keep weapons for themselves only, so that it’s much easier to herd the people around like cattle if need be.

Despite all the rhetoric an interestingly named group (National RIFLE Association) puts out about gun ownership in other countries, most 1st world countries allow their citizenry to own rifles, but not handguns…

There are these things called planes and ships that carry you from one place to another</em. The airlines have been dropping out of existence like flies sprayed with Raid. Perhaps air travel won’t be available to the general public when you really, really want to fly/flee, hence my suggestion about owning one’s own aircraft. Of course, if you live on a navigable stream & have your ocean-going canoe tied up at the dock, even if air travel is not possible, you’re good as gold.

“One can argue that the additional systemic risk was intentional so that the government would find itself in the situation in which it is in today.”

How else to explain how the brightest minds in finance could lose so much money in ways that look foolish to the average observer?

Basically you just convinced me that in fact CDS (among other types) are a reasonable scapegoat for this mess because without the existence of derivatives the IB’s could not pose the systemic risk that they now pose. Is this an accurate summation?

I do not believe so. While the wiring of explosives may be indicative of exit strategies that the brain trusts created, it is not indicative that they are the cause of the circumstances giving rise to the need for such exit strategies. Except for fraud, the blame needs to lie squarely on those that over paid.

I note my comments are a bit of an oversimplification because the government and others do share in a bit of the blame. I guess I am different than some because I never expect business interests to act in any many other than a self interested manner, and that it’s the governments job to make appropriate laws and regulate, and to make sound decisions. Note I am only referring to legal self interested practices, as illegal conduct should not be assumed.

Note I am only referring to legal self interested practices, as illegal conduct should not be assumed. I assume that as long as laws are made, there will be illegal conduct.

My reference to how business is generally conducted on a day to day basis. I assume most businesses act in their own self interest, but would not assume most would break laws if enacted. Thus, I find regulation helpful in many circumstances.

What I find egregious is that the gubmint’s Wall Street speculator investment bank bailout is completely without strings: Go ahead and keep paying the CEOs their ridiculous salaries and bonuses, let the level 3 and off-balance sheet assets stay off the books, let the uber-leveraging continue.

Even Enron and Arthur Andersen engendered some post-hoc reforms. These bastards seriously think that they should still be able to operate in a deregulated environment after being deemed “too big to fail”.

I hope an expanded Glass-Steagall is the bare minimum of what comes out of this. Sarbanes-Oxley may have increased transaction costs, but that’s the price you pay when you can’t police yourself.

I assume most businesses act in their own self interest, but would not assume most would break laws if enacted. Thus, I find regulation helpful in many circumstances.
I assume some businesses will do whatever they can get away with, or “innovate” new, legal ways to do what present laws prohibit. I sneer at candidates who have tried to convince me that “government is the problem.” Sometimes government is necessary to protect the rest of us from entities who cross legal boundaries or who come up with cunning evasions of laws and other destructive “innovations.”

IMHO …Nothing wrong with business and people operating in self-interest ,but if it crosses over the line and business and people break the laws and the % of people/business doing it reaches a critical mass ,than you can get a major breakdown of civilization .

I don’t think the inflation threshold is as high as 10-15%. I think we are getting closer to where they will have to try some raising of rates even if they know it will . They can only play the “core inflation” game so long and I think double digit inflation would be intolerable. Anything past 7-8% and I think they have to act.

Rather than increasing rates to slow the economy they should just tax oil and gas. That would target the deflationary action where we need it most. People could still borrow at relatively low rates and most would take the opportunity to buy more efficient cars houses ect.

Why is voliker a hero and greenspan a villain?

Aren’t both guys guilty of manipulating the market?

I’m not sure about that. The duck might be the winner in that one.

“Dodds should of removed himself from the finance committee when he knew that he had a conflict of interest .”

He probably figured he couldn’t do that because immediately the reporters would be scouting for what the conflict was and he wanted to keep it secret.

Aspen used to be full of creative independent souls, but most of them left. They were replaced by huge monstrous houses and furbearing humans.

Lost, I have figured out your tag line, like Neil’s, “got popcorn”.

Yours should be,

“interesting and confusing”

You can thank me later, after you try it on for size.
lol

Thanks, Lost. I like that. Am also thinking of changing my handle to Lost It In Utah.

Lost,
that could work!
lol

PS: I meant to say “interesting and complicated”.
lol

The way I see it you can laugh or cry. I prefer the former to the latter. Also, the best we can hope for is a glancing blow as opposed to a “straight on hit”.
lol

Last I heard, “no one gets out alive”. So enjoy whatever life has to offer you and everyone else on this site.
lol

lost,

“Thanks, Lost. I like that. Am also thinking of changing my handle to Lost It In Utah.”

I hope we are not talking about your virginity.

isn’t amazing how different interpretations can be drawn from what I am sure was a basic simple statement.

You got to love the english language.

lol

PS: Some say its a play on words, others say its the foreplay of words.

lol

Last I heard, “no one gets out alive”. A lot of people live like they don’t believe that.

Lost,
I will go, if you go first. I will watch the nightly news/or whatever celebrity news program for the expose on your capture, trial and incarceration.

Hey, you may get a cell next to whoever the latest terrorist we have in jail.

I am getting to old for this sh*t. (And that statement hurts me and my ego more than you can ever imagine!)

LOL

Courage is doing what you know is right no matter what.

Lost,
we have got to stop this. Others may talk!
LOL, LOL, LOL

Just to get the record straight, I draw the line at molesting children and drinking lighter fluid.

Which you the best.

Actually, it’s willow bark, which contains salicylic acid. Aspirin is a synthetic version called acetylsalicylic acid. You can overdose eating willow bark.

Incredulous,
Know that piece of info I should keep handy. Where’s my pad and pen.

Can you tell me though, where there are Willow trees in So. CA, and if they exist, how to identify them. I still have problems identifying poison Ivy (another story) that me and my friends a long time ago caught in Big Sur on a camping trip. Have you ever seen 20 year olds swell up like sausage? Looking back it was funny. We were all pink for calamine lotion.

Aw w, the good ole days of stupidity and ignorance. Not that I am any smarter now!!!
lol

Willows are very dominant in riparian zones (i.e. stream channels/banks). They require lots of water and do well in wet/saturated soils. There are tons of species, but they all look very similar in structure and leaf. Very easy to i.d. They tend to be more bushy/shruby than tree like (not the big weeping willow trees, more like streamside bush).

In Riverside and San Bernardino counties, you can find plenty.

Sorry, I live in Florida.

Willows have droopy, weak branches. There is one species actually referred to as “weeping willow.” They often grow here on the sides of roads where is a lot of water (swampy areas).

You don’t want to eat the bark. Also, it’s poisonous to many animals.

Here’s a little article, with a weird picture. Most willows don’t look like this, but it should give you an idea.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willow

“You can overdose eating willow bark.”

Well, that explains a few things…

I was being sarcastic, but you didn’t pick up on that.

Consulting the medical literature is one thing, evaluating a patient based on clinical experience and putting it in the context of other medical, social, and knowing the limitations/biases of a particular study is quite another.

Knowledge is a good thing, but reading a paper does not substitute for clinical judgement. Only a fool would believe otherwise.

Knowledge is a good thing, but reading a paper does not substitute for clinical judgement.

If you think that you cannot educate yourself to the point of usefulness, by all means do not bother. Myself, I have seen unnecessary tests, exams and even surgeries. (My latest story is an unnecessary bone biopsy for a bacterium (!) that resulted in complications. The result is a sad and serious hit on the quality of life.)

Fundamentally, do you think that doctors are above letting their finances affect their judgment? And if so, will they let it sway their judgment for someone who is educated or someone who is ignorant? It is quite analogous to who got snookered in the housing bubble.

Can you think of any profession where finances don’t affect their decisions?

What worker’s paradise are you thinking of where people work tirelessly without regard for compensation?

I got news for you: the only place on the planet where principled people make more money than the unprincipled ones and ultimately get the last laugh is in Hollywood fairy tales.

My dad went into the hospital because he was having very painful muscle spasms in his back and the meds they gave him weren’t helping. They put him on something else. I went to visit him and he was sitting there in a chair in his hospital gown thinking he was in the concourse going on a trip to Hawaii. He acted just like you would act, would pick up mags and “read” them, kept asking me why the plane was so late, where was the luggage, etc. My brother came in and it was very funny, our dad chewed him out for being late, said he was going to miss the plane.

So, a doc came in and we asked about why he was hallucinating, he said it was the drugs, not to worry.

My brother went and read the physician’s ref manual (PDR?) for the drugs - my dad has a bad heart - the drugs were totally contraindicated, one relaxed his heart while the other sped it up. We got a new doctor and he was horrified. It’s a wonder they didn’t kill my dad.

So…docs are human, always be a advocate for whoever is in the hospital, it wasn’t the first time my family’s had such occasions to not trust doctors. Caveat: I think docs are mostly dedicated intelligent people, but yes, they can be influenced, and it’s impossible to stay current on everything.

And I think nosingleone was being sarcastic, as many people tend to go for the latest fads and to not respect the many long hours/days/weeks/years of study and work that go into becoming an MD.

But there is a huge difference between following the latest fad and truly educating yourself and then working with the doc, not against them. Although there are times you need to just get a new doc.

lost,

I have nothing with someone human, the last time I checked, I am human. Humans make mistakes in judgments, but if someone is not sure, I believe that they are obligated to tell me so and suggest that I check other sources.

Medicine is not something everyone is knowledgeable about. Even when they thought they knew, it didn’t cost them their first born child. That is the way doctors present their opinions today. We are god in our opinions. Because we spent, what 8 years to be a general practioner, our opinion can not be challenged.

I am sorry, but the medical bubble is like the housing bubble (so how as to not verve to far off base. Susposed experts say to do something for your problem (investment greed vs. your life), this is what you should do. The only question that remains is “lets see the money”.

Just a dumb hick from So. CA. with a degree in PS at Berkeley.

LOL, LOL, LOL

Since I’m not running for any office, I have my photo on this blog.
I hope more people send me their photos, we have more critters on the site now!

http://s292.photobucket.com/albums/mm1/anngogh/?albumview=link

annmoorman@att dot net

Give me a megaphone and a platform so I could be the cindy sheehan of the housing bubble butt and various other sanctioned ripoffs. My college acting classes would come in handy.