‘Really Everything Is Up, Except Units Sold’
The Baltimore Sun reports on that housing bubble. “Home sales in the Baltimore region dipped in March, the sixth straight month of decline over the previous year, and the buildup of inventory escalated as the market headed into the crucial spring selling season. Sales dropped in every jurisdiction except Harford County.”
“‘There is no burst,’ said Katie Grove, president of the Greater Baltimore Board of Realtors. ‘Really everything is up, except the units sold. The higher-priced homes are not being sold in the numbers as before,’ Grove said.”
“Baltimore is not seeing the cooling in the housing market that the Washington region is experiencing, said John McClain at George Mason University. ‘Where prices are affordable, we’re still seeing double-digit price increases,’ McClain said.”
“‘We seem to have entered a soft landing cycle,” said Anirban Basu. ‘Gone are the dramatic month-to-month increases in home prices, gone is the period of dwindling inventory of homes for sale. In its place is a sharp increase in inventory from month to month, which suggests that demand for housing continues to wane in the face of rising interest rates. If anything, further softening is likely,’ Basu said.”
“And from the Virginia Pilot. “The number of houses sold in Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Portsmouth and Suffolk declined last month compared with the same time in 2005, an 11 percent decrease in overall sales for the month.”
“Realtors such as Steve Ballard have had to adjust their approach in dealing with buyers and sellers. ‘Our buyers are not as disappointed as they have been in the last few years,’ Ballard said. ‘There is more inventory. It isn’t becoming a bidding issue to buy the house of their choice.’”
“‘When they ask for us to give them a price for their house, we give various numbers,’ Ballard said. ‘One is if they are not in a rush; that is the top end. If they are anxious to sell, we would put an attractive price on it to move it quickly.’ The difference between those two prices is usually about 5 percent, Ballard said.”
“‘Only in a few cases have they been really disappointed,’ he said of sellers.”
Thanks to the readers who sent in these links .
ben, not to change the topic, but you should blog a little on buysiderealty.com. i think it’s pretty profound (much like zillow) in it’s size and depth. developed by internet veterans, it’s the most startling attempt to cut the knees out from under the realtors.
Yea I read about that. What’s startling is that they think that’s going to work. The only way stuff likes this works is if you have mass consolidation of the MLS and other gears of the wheel. Untill you have that all you have is another real estate company. This stuff popped up like wildflowers during the last boom when times got hard. They dropped like flys at a raid convention.
no offense, but the internet didn’t even exist during the last downturn, anyone who thinks this is not a direct threat to the realty community has blinders on.
internet as you know it didn’t exist. You sound like Al Gore. The internet is far far away from becoming a threat to the real estate industry.
HA! This article had me in stitches. Favorite quote:
“Additional inventory could make it easier for people to find a new home, and therefore shorten the days on the market.”
So with 40,000 units of inventory in Phoenix a condo there should be selling in what, 30 minutes?
It’s been a long time coming; I say: “Phoenix condos for everyone!”
‘There is no burst,’
Somebody ought to track how many times the realtor spin doctors get this into print. Also “the market has hit a high plateau”…
Permanently high plateau GS!
seems to me that if DC falters- Balimore will catch a cold as well- since most of the price increases in Baltimore are from those leaving the DC area. Once this slows Baltimore will suffer. Looks to me alot like Boston- and Providence - The Alpha and Beta coexist- when one falls- the beta will have nothing to prop itself up,
And DC area is faltering:
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2006/04/in-dc-proper-median-and-average-price.html
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2006/04/washington-dc-active-listings-increase.html
David
Bubble Meter Blog
I wonder if Mr. Ballard mentions to prospective buyers about their nice new tax increases (from another article in the Virginian-Pilot today):
“Assessor Wayne N. Trout, who has since retired, had forecast a record 23 percent average increase in residential assessments in September, a number his office said still was accurate a month ago. However, since assessments recently were mailed to neighborhoods such as Willoughby, Ghent, Larchmont and Ocean View, Council members have been inundated with protests from homeowners .
…
Wright questioned the 23 percent figure at last week’s City Council meeting and asked for a neighborhood breakdown of assessment increases.
“With the feedback we were getting, I knew it had to be higher than 23 percent,” Wright said. “… people are going up 50 or 60 percent in some areas…”
On another thread today, a few people mentioned about the real impact of fraudulent mortgage activity. Well, the working class people of Norfolk and other Hampton Roads communities who are seeing their taxes go up 25 and 50% are an example.
BTW, I have started to track a new Va Beach stat. More in a few weeks if the data looks interesting, but more evidence I think that despite what Ballard says, the bubble is beginning to burst.
Oh, and inventories still up across the board almost daily.
“‘We seem to have entered a soft landing cycle,” said Anirban Basu. ‘Gone are the dramatic month-to-month increases in home prices, gone is the period of dwindling inventory of homes for sale. In its place is a sharp increase in inventory from month to month, which suggests that demand for housing continues to wane in the face of rising interest rates. If anything, further softening is likely,’ Basu said.”
So you’ve got sharply rising inventory, waning demand, no more appreciation and rising interest rates.
Mr. Basu, I believe your prediction of “more softening likely” will come true.
Not sure where you got “no more appreciation” from that story.
Here are some quotes:
“Pricing, however, remained strong, posting double-digit gains over a year earlier.”
“But the number of home sales was higher than in February, and the average selling price edged upward for the third consecutive month. The average sales price of a home in the region in March was $295,334, up 14.06 percent over a year earlier and about $1,200 more than in February.”
“Prices soared most in the city, soaring 26.5 percent in a year, and least in Carroll, up 3.32 percent .”
This story tracks with what I am seeing and observing in Baltimore, which is that appropriately priced properties in quality neighborhoods continue to fly off the market.
I’ve been tracking the 21212 Zip code for houses between 250-500k for several months now, and the inventory is at a low of 32 and has never moved as high as 40. Not saying things aren’t going to change in Baltimore, but home prices have been very resilient.
of course that’s the case. it’s always the case in the better neighborhoods that they would lag the market. understand we’re very early in the ’softening’ cycle. very early. everyone must be patient and give this another 18 months to see how fast and far the fallout will be. it’s coming. it’ll take the masses a while to realize they aren’t being priced out of the market and prices are not going up enough to compensate for the borrowing costs incurred.
Stay tuned. “Mild Ass Pounding” right around the corner!
Interesting that the March numbers for Hampton Roads looks so much better than the Feb ones. Makes me suspicious of one or the other:
February 2006
Sold Listings: 842
Ave Median Price: $210,450
Ave Sales Price: $246,764
Ave Days on Market: 57
February 2005
Sold Listings: 2255
Ave Median Price: $194,900
Ave Sales Price: $241,408
Ave Days on Market: 30
fr, where are you getting your sales data from, since ziprealty doesn’t seem to cover HR? Thanks
It came from this site:
http://www.hamptonroadsrealestateblog.blogspot.com/
These guys appear to be real estate agents, so I assume they have complete access to the MLS data. Overall it seems to be a pro real estate site, so I’m surprised they even published data that negative.
Thanks, fr. Definitely a realtor site, check out the blogs they link to! (definitely not Ben’s).
The median prices for sold real estate seems to confirm that it’s the low end that is still selling, while the high end is gasping for breath. Over at housing tracker, you can see the 25th percentile is up about 15% since August, the 75th percentile only up about 5%.
Implant these idiots with a GPS tracking chip so that we can locate them in another year to see what line of work they are in.
Read about The downside for rising home prices .
“No one wants the price of housing to stagnate or decline, not even those who have hopes of becoming owners. But bad stuff results from repeated double-digit increases. At the risk of bringing everyone down, here’s why:”
Oh my, are they putting something else in the kool-aid?
Welcome to the wonderful world of weasel-words!
baltimore guy, you asked: Not sure where you got “no more appreciation” from that story.
I inferred that from Anirban Basu’s statemen: “Gone are the dramatic month-to-month increases in home prices.”
If the month-to-month increases are gone I thought that meant no more appreciation.
OT, but here is one LV investor’s game plan for SD investing:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060409/news_1h09sandiego.html
I read that earlier today…. great article. So crash it is.
“For the record, economists and others who watch the local real estate market are making a different forecast, predicting a slowdown in appreciation and a leveling of prices, but no bursting bubble or other calamitous market downturn ahead for San Diego”
Morons, if my payment kept on adjusting up and the market was flat I’d be forced out of my house and I think I’d find that pretty damn calamitous. Where did these guys get their economics degrees ? Shady internet sites ?
Here’s a guy who has only invested on the upside his plan is flawed there is no way I’m taking over someone’s payment for a yr in a falling market. There’s no way I’m buying anything that was purchased on the tail end of a bubble untill it has hit the banks coffers. Theni’m only buying from banks that have made it to the sheet and the fed has them breathing hard. He’s pissing in the wind. I’m actually trying to figure out why someone would print crap like that. Reading the blogs and not doing his research is what I see.
I think that he is trying hard to come up with a plan that continues with the cool aid. I am sorry to tell him that unfortunately that plan will not work and here is why. Equity. There is none when you are upside down, and it will be very hard for you the homedebtor of record to negotiate your principal down. Just try to negotiate your CC debt down, and see how hard they laugh at you.
No what any sensible person needs to do, is wait untill everything is down, and then buy a house to LIVE IN, not SPECULATE IN, and that way, we all will be better off.
OT, but I heard an insider on the REIT’s say that a lot of them are expecting to go down in the future 5% to 15%. Didn’t write down his name and I’m bad with names.
“…sharp increase in inventory from month to month, which suggests that demand for housing continues to wane in the face of rising interest rates”
Yeah, that’s gotta be it. Price can’t have anything to do with it.
I just heard an interview with a Toll Brothers rep and there is a big, big disconnect between him and this forum.