Push for sub-prime regulation loses steam… Ah, It’s wonderful to watch a well oiled machine at work. Typical, these bozos will do what they do best… Gum up the works, good thing they operate as well on the FED level.
Sen. Michael Machado (D-Linden), chairman of the Senate Banking, Finance and Insurance Committee, opposed most of the bills, saying they would subject the mortgage industry to contradictory federal and state regulations.
Machado worried that cracking down on mortgage bankers and brokers could dry up credit and “restrict the accessibility to home loans for the very people” lawmakers were trying to help.
Consumer advocates were outraged.
“The system does not work in favor of the consumer,” said Kevin Stein of the California Reinvestment Coalition, a group that promotes economic development in low-income communities. “The lobbyists for the industry outnumber the consumer groups. They seem to have greater access [to lawmakers] and give more money.”
During more than five hours of hearings, both Republicans and Democrats on the committee supported only one measure that had been high on consumer groups’ agenda, a bill by Assemblyman Alberto Torrico (D-Newark), AB 529, that would require lenders to give homeowners more advance notice when their sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgages were about to reset to a higher interest rate.
“The lobbyists for the industry outnumber the consumer groups. They seem to have greater access [to lawmakers] and give more money.”
That’s a great quote. There are no blue light specials in Congress.
Whoever throws the most money on the table writes the legislation.
This should not be a surprise to anyone. It’s not cynical, it’s simply a fact. Anyone who works for any sizable company that does any business with government learns this matter of factly and as a matter of course.
If you don’t pay, you can’t play. Congress is strictly “Pay to play.”
About an year ago I commented on this blog that US was just as corrupt as 3rd world but we had invented euphemisms such as ‘campaign contributions’, ‘lobby groups’ to hide the obvious.
“Sen. Michael Machado (D-Linden), chairman of the Senate Banking, Finance and Insurance Committee, opposed most of the bills, saying they would subject the mortgage industry to contradictory federal and state regulations.”
“Machado worried that cracking down on mortgage bankers and brokers could dry up credit and ‘restrict the accessibility to home loans for the very people’ lawmakers were trying to help.”
I wonder how many mortgage bankers and brokers are among his campaign donors? Shouldn’t that read “Machado worried that cracking down on mortgage bankers and brokers could dry up campaign donations…”
While enjoying your sarcastic poke at the legislator, I have to say that any amount of regulation would dry up “my” well, i.e., probably put me out of the lending business. And I don’t have any lobbying power at all. I’m just saying there’s some truth to the notion that some regulations would have the unintended consequence of making it harder for consumers to borrow. I certainly don’t object to the one about providing extra advance notice of ARM resets, since I never lend ARMs anyway.
There is definitely some truth to what you are saying. If you make regulation too onerous, competition will be reduced, and the price to consumers will go up. Availability will be impacted somewhat, as lenders such as yourself are regulated out of business.
That said, given how we got into this mess, too much regulation isn’t the problem. I just hope there are some politicians out there that can make appropriate tweaks to change incentives and reduce fraud.
I like things like added disclosure (including disclosure of mortgage broker fees when the broker is showing you your loan options) and changing the relationship between mortgage brokers and their clients to one that is fiduciary in nature (the broker is required by law to act in the client’s best interest).
Get information into the hands of the consumers (including information about your salesman’s incentives) and let them make their own decisions.
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Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-06-19 09:54:18
“Get information into the hands of the consumers (including information about your salesman’s incentives) and let them make their own decisions.”
The Truth in Lending Act supposedly did that, but it didn’t work.
If you need gov’t bailouts (especially because you are “too big to fail”), then you need gov’t regulation. End of story.
Comment by Rental Watch
2008-06-19 10:43:42
To my understanding, the Truth in Lending Act does not have the obligation for mortgage brokers to act in the best interest of their clients (to the level of being their fiduciary), nor does it require the brokers to disclose that fees they are to be paid for the various options they lay out to you.
I agree wholeheartedly about your comment that if you are “too big to fail” that you need government regulation. We can talk about whether Bear was a “bailout” or a government sponsored “crash landing”. I think that in an ideal world, they should be allowed to fail. The government should set a threshold, above which you are subject to significant regulation. If you are a $50B entity, no regulation, but if you get out over your skis, good luck to you. If you are above a certain size threshold, things like 30x leverage is a big “no-no”.
I’m open to new regulations. I hope though that they don’t go overboard as they did with SOX. As a sophisticated borrower, I would hate to have such regulations restrict my ability to take out an option ARM or other exotic loan product, if that’s what I chose to do (for whatever reason).
Oh sure, lock the barn door after the horse is gone. Or, more accurately, lock the house door after the FB is inside.
These advocates need to educate their “low-information” consumers before they sign the papers, not after. Rather than disallowing such loans, why not make the subprime FBs take a little class beforehand, which educates them on exactly what they are getting into. Here, I’ll even suggest a syllabus to get started:
Intro: Quit your whining about having to show up for this class; you want this unusual loan, you have to sit here. And yes, there will be a quiz. Hour 1: Fundamentals of loan service. (Yes, your payment will go up.) Hour 2: Get it in Writing. (No, you can’t “just refinance later.”) Hour 3: Fundamentals of fees. (They ain’t givin’ you this loan because you’re so handsome.) Hour 4: Personal responsbility. (No, we won’t bail out your sorry butt. You sign, you pay.) Quiz. And yes, you have to pass it.
I don’t recall seeing “the right to a subprime loan” in the Constitution.
“the committee supported only one measure …. AB 529, that would require lenders to give homeowners more advance notice when their sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgages were about to reset to a higher interest rate.”
So the one measure that goes through is to ensure that people know when the poison they swallowed is going to kill them. That’s great. And it’s only sub-prime. All the garbage prime mortgages won’t even get the warning.
I can see the letters that this proposal will generate.
“Dear valued customer, you mortgage bill is about to increase by 40%. Now is a good time to realise you can’t afford this increase or sell your house for enough to cover the balance you owe. A short sale or loan adjustment is possible, but our reps are only manning the phones on Thurs evenings on even numbered weeks when there is a full moon. We recommend you begin emptying your retirement savings now, as that is the best option available for us.”
The big problem was that borrowers were not reading their loan documents that stated the terms of the loans . Another problem was that commissioned loan agents deceived borrowers verbally as to the terms of the loan , knowing that a lot of people don’t like to read the tons of paper-work . How do you get people to read important loan documents ? During a mania ,a number of borrowers didn’t care what kind of loan they went on ,especially if they could get a low down loan or not supply income documentation and get a teaser rate . Also ,the borrowers were promised verbally that they could just refinance the toxic loan they took out ,without being told that in a tight money market there is no assurance that they will be able to get out of a toxic loan .
I don’t agree with how the industry sold loans during the housing boom because it was all about using leverage to get appreciation .
The industry pushed faulty verbal advice to the borrowers because they didn’t warn borrower about what would happen if real estate didn’t go up.
Maybe they should enact some laws that give the borrower a longer time to review the documents before the loan can close or fund . I have always felt that they put to much pressure on borrowers to sign at the last minute . Perhaps a few more disclosures need to go out on the terms of the loan in bigger bold letters , at least the parts of the contract that would be of concern to borrowers should be in bigger darker print,with maybe a requirement that the borrower has to sign that they understand it .
How do you get people to really read their loan documents and not trust the verbal BS of the commissioned sales people ,who just want people to sign fast so they can get their commission ? I made them send out my loan documents a week ahead of time so I could review them.
But regarding borrowers going on lousy loans ,the borrowers were given the opportunity to get easy money for speculation with little skin in the game ,and they went for it for most part . The lenders were the fools for making loans like that ,(especially non-recourse loans ). Did borrower really expect that lenders wouldn’t want a higher interest rate down the road ?
How do you create new laws that cover human behavior in a
speculation mania in which borrower and lenders throw caution to the wind and take risks they normally wouldn’t? How do you stop
trade groups ,like the NAR ,from brainwashing people with their faulty investment advice and predictions ? The media doesn’t talk to much about the mass brainwashing that took place during the boom because of the cheer-leading from the trade groups and advertisers that lead people to believe that Real Estate was a no-lose investment and real estate always goes up .
The big problem was that borrowers were not reading their loan documents that stated the terms of the loans . Another problem was that commissioned….
Aw BS. Most of the people I know were looking at skyrocketing prices and didn’t give a rats backside about no stinking reset. They grabbed cash back, heloc money and told me how amazing their investments were. And it was across a broad spectrum of people.
Black/White/Asian/Mexican… got lots guys showing up in pimped out Lexuses at the reformed Baptist church my buddy goes to and I occasionally visit… and most of those people weren’t rich.
Got lots of scoffs when I talked about being in debt was a sin. Unaware… bullplop. Most of them were signing liar loan docs too. Not like they didn’t know. If they couldn’t handle the reset it was all sell and keep the gains. F that… for every 1 person that “did understand” 10 were shooting for a big free payday
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Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-06-19 10:25:36
Amen brother. Thanks to these class A a$$holes, prices were driven up to a point where, nevermind what I can afford, it would be sheer stupidity for me to buy in.
Thanks to them, a well behaved and very sweet five year old girl doesn’t have a backyard to play in, and instead has to live in a crappy two bedroom apartment.
Now they want the government to take my money and use it to bail their lying, gambling asses out on top of it all.
Does no one in our government have a sense of justice anymore? Are you reading this congresscritters? We’re TIRED of this crap.
I’m voting 3rd party from now on, unless there’s a REALLY good case for a particular individual. If nothing else, I will definitely vote against whomever is the incumbent.
I say throw the bums out of office next election. Either vote 3rd part, or for the other guy. A high turnover rate may be the ONLY thing they will listen to from the people….
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-06-19 11:04:22
If you would note in the entirety of my post I said that people wanted these loans for speculation purpose and they didn’t care what type of loans they went on .
If you have ever read a number of my posts you would know I give no slack to the borrowers because I believe they knew what they were doing and a good % of them lied on their loan applications . Still, many borrowers were lied to and didn’t fully understand what they were doing ,in spite of their motive being speculation .So, I’m just saying as long as a speculator knows what they are doing regarding taking out a loan, than it’s better.
How can you think that the mass brainwashing and cheer-leading didn’t influence people ?
I think before the lawmakers go changing all the laws ,a complete neutral investigation needs to be conducted to determine the causes of the housing crash . So much of the crash was because of widespread lending fraud .So,under those circumstances more regulations would be needed that prevented fraud ,as a example , a better system that would not put appraisers in a position of starving if they didn’t hit the mark on appraisals .
Big Three Tone Down Rate Hike Threats… “Threats”? Did anyone seriously believe that our FED would raise rates? The one and only bogeyman that keeps Ben Bernake a wake at night is Deflation…
House Dems Call For Nationalization Of Refineries… The papers are chock full of humor this morning… Perhaps our D.C. circus should call Chavez the ringmaster down in Venezuela for some handy tips on just how to go about this…
The problem I have is(with both parties) I think they are all power hungry lunatics…They continue to waste time and our money lifted from the Taxpayer.
From the article…
“The lunatics we put in power in 2006 have rather nicely gone and outdone themselves with this little brainstorm… I swear I’m stuck in a really bad episode of the Twilight Zone”:
House Democrats responded to President’s Bush’s call for Congress to lift the moratorium on offshore drilling. This was at an on-camera press conference fed back live.
Among other things, the Democrats called for the government to own refineries so it could better control the flow of the oil supply.
[...]
We (the government) should own the refineries. Then we can control how much gets out into the market.
I think you touch on something very important. When we talk about national health care or nationalized petroleum production as you mentioned, there is this American construct of US (the people) and THEM (the government). The fact is the WE ARE THE GOVERNMENT. If we have national health care, it is OURS, the citizens, the people. It isn’t owned by a few power-hungry businessmen.
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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-06-19 10:23:23
Adam,
So true, so many people even the media forget we are the government, the government is we the people.
Democrats and Republicans are two heads of the same beast. That is painfully obvious if you look closely. Differences really amount to splitting hairs. The whole “left/right” paradigm is just a tool used by the real PTB.
–
What conclusion can one draw from this about partisan Americans?
Jas
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Comment by AK-LA
2008-06-19 08:04:04
“What conclusion…?”
They’re not looking at other alternatives. Allowing ourselves to think only within this false Dem/Rep dichotomy limits our ability to demand and achieve significant change.
Do you suppose that doping from birth onwards has something to do with it? BTW, all cultures do some or other form of doping to instill faith in the system in place. In our case, it is the two-party democratic system. It is very convenient and simplistic for people to follow, or cling to — blame the other party for most of the ills! Believe you me, I know some thoroughbred partisan dopes. There is one guy, in his seventies, who has been Republican all his life and is a staunch Bush supporter today. He juts wishes Bush could have a third term because McCain isn’t good enough.
It is all about beliefs and habits of the population, mostly a cultural heritage. Independent thinkers are rare in any place.
–
Would you say that ditto-heads are born-and-bred dopes (brainwashed and conditioned most of their lives)? I know some people with very high native intelligence who are ditto-heads and, yes, they do know everything (we know the source!)
Jas
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Comment by txchick57
2008-06-19 06:58:24
ditto
lol
Comment by Rintoul
2008-06-19 15:27:58
That’s guy’s still around?? I thought after his drug bust he’d go away…
Rush Limpbaughs Motto: ” Dont bother thinking…I know everything”
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 07:53:07
“Even with it’s flaws, the GOP sure beats the party of cut and run cowards any day.”
Cut and Run is an old nautical term that means you cut the anchor rope, because something wicked weatherwise is coming your way, and there is no time to dilly dally…
Comment by James
2008-06-19 09:37:16
When you cut and run you get pushed by the wind. Of course when you are running you are always slower than the wind and get caught by the storm everytime.
So, its a desperation move.
Normally you go close hauled or on a reach to side step the weather.
Hardest part of sailing is controling the boat going with the wind and waves. You lose rudder all the time and can jibe unexpectedly.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 09:41:24
“The ‘cutting rope’ derivation was certainly accepted later in that century by David Steel, the author of the 1794 tome The Elements and Practice of Rigging and Seamanship:”
“To Cut and run, to cut the cable and make sail instantly, without waiting to weigh anchor.”
The paralells between Stalingrad late 1942 and Iraq 2008 are eery…
250,000 Americans (G.I.’s/Blackwaters/Haliburton) is roughly the same amount of men that the Nazis had in Stalingrad.
When the Nazis made their initial push towards the city, it looked like they would have an easy time of it, but got bogged down in street to street fighting.
In the end a fierce winter and lack of fuel spelled their demise.
It will be a hellish summer and lack of fuel that does us in, unless we “cut and run” at some point.
Comment by manny
2008-06-19 11:26:49
I find it amusing that liberals cry paranoia anytime terrorism is mentioned. Yet you throw out comparisons to Stalingrad and lack of fuel without missing a beat.
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-06-19 11:27:29
This comparison isn’t even “apple and oranges”. More like ” apples and rocks”
It wasn’t the street fighting that caused the German defeat at Stalingrad. At the time that the Soviets attacked to cut off the salient, the German Army had captured something like 90% of the city. Most of the Germans who died because of Stalingrad didn’t die there, they died after being taken prisoner, thanks to Hitler’s “No retreat” orders.
I don’t see any multi-million man force anywhere in the Middle East that is capable of “another Stalingrad”, no President is ever going to issue “Stand or die” orders, and no General Officer in the US military would ever issue them.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 11:33:41
The ‘terrorists’ of 1942 were called partisans, and they regularly attacked Nazi supply columns, causing much grief…
Are the similarities of our lost cause sinking in, yet?
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 11:52:30
It wasn’t the street fighting that caused the American defeat at Baghdad. At the time that the insurgents attacked to cut off the salient, the American Army had captured something like 90% of the city. Most of the Americans who died because of Baghdad didn’t die there, they died after being taken prisoner, thanks to ’ssshrubery’s “No retreat” orders.
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-06-19 11:58:14
It wasn’t the “partisans” who defeated the German Army.
It was the Soviet Army, Hitler’s “Stand or Die” orders, when a retreat to a better defensive line would have made more sense, and the spring-summer 1944 air campaign against the German transportation network and oil product facilities.
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-06-19 12:09:29
…..American defeat at Baghdad……”
So…….what point are you trying to make?
There isn’t going to be a victory or defeat in Iraq. The Shrub picked the wrong fight, at the wrong time, with lukewarm support at home, and ignored the guys that knew what they were talking about, when it came time for estimating what it would take to “secure” (for the lack of a better word).
He screwed up, and the US Army and Marine Corp. were left to try to salvage something from the situation.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 12:10:21
It wasn’t the “terrorists” who defeated the American Army.
It was the financial army, ’ssshrubery’s “Stand or Die” orders, when a retreat to a better defensive line would have made more sense, and the spring-summer 2008 gas campaign against the American transportation network and oil product facilities.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 12:15:41
Anything else to bolster my theory?
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 12:24:58
Keep serving up 8 mph softballs if you’d like…
There isn’t going to be a victory or defeat in Stalingrad. The fuhrer picked the wrong fight, at the wrong time, with lukewarm support at home, and ignored the guys that knew what they were talking about, when it came time for estimating what it would take to “secure” (for the lack of a better word).
He screwed up, and the wehrmacht & luftwaffe were left to try to salvage something from the situation.
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-06-19 12:42:16
I frankly have no idea what the hell you are talking about.
If you are going to use historical precendent, pick one that aligns a little better with the facts.
You seem to have the idea that everything the Shrub and Company do is some kind of huge conspiracy.
I, on the other hand, think these guys are too stupid, and run their mouths too much, to pull off said conspiracy.
We obviously have different world views.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 12:50:29
All I did was take your words, and switched time, people & places…
I’m so tired of hitting homers, please throw me the hard heat now.
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 13:50:03
Yeah, and in 1940 German army took over Moscow, captured Stalin and formed a government. Yup… Seems like Iraq 2008.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 14:21:56
The Nazis set up puppet governments all over the vast areas of Russia that they conquered, just like we’ve done in the middle east.
The Russians and the Germans also knew whom they were fighting against, as each side had identifiable uniforms, vs. our current debacle where we are the only ones so attired, and the bad guys all wear their clothing of their own choosing and look remarkably similar to non-combatants, of which we can’t distinguish one from the other, because we don’t speak their language.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 14:31:36
p.s.
In 1940 Germany & Russia were allies, just like the USA and Iraq until 1990…
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 14:44:38
You are confused.
Hitler never took Moscow.
Hitler never setup goverments in Ukraine, Russia or Belorussia, Estonia, Latvia or Litva.
Hitler never captured Stalin.
If you think that the non-aggression pact between USSR and Germany was anything other than realpolitik you really need to re-read history books.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 16:13:50
I guess this didn’t exist…
Reichskommissariat Ukraine
Reichskommissariat Ukraine excluded parts of present-day Ukraine. It extended, in the west, from the Volhynian region around Lutsk, to a line from Vinnytsia to Mykolaiv along the Southern Bug River in the south, to the areas surrounding Kiev, Poltava and Zaporizhia in the east, but excluded the Crimea, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and the Donbas/Donets Basin, which remained under German military jurisdiction. At its greatest extent, it included just under 340,000 square kilometers.
Some of the writers I like, some definitely are screechers or whiners. And the comment-posters at HuffPo tend to drive me nuts (regardless of political orientation).
Both parties are heading us in the same direction, anytime some lone wolf in D.C. calls for less Gubmint he/she is shot down. Nobody wants to hear it, but our founding fathers knew full well what happens when big government takes control. Loss of Liberty.
Was just watching “morning joe” on MSNBC. They had a guest on who was questioning the need for a 1,000 mile border given that we are a “nation of immigrants”. I won’t go into the specific issue of how uncontrolled illegal immigration has economically & culturally damaged the US over the years. Mainly because it is largely my opinion that is only backed up by my personal observations/anecdotal reports.
However, what was illuminating and different about the exchange of ideas this morning was when Pat Buchannon (sp?) piped in that his concern (I’m paraphrasing) surrounded the North American Union plans and how the highway being built (AKA NAFTA Superhighway) could/would lead to the demise of the soveriegnty of the US as well as our culture.
No one on the set even blinked an eye at the mention of the NAU. Now, don’t you think that one of the anchors, upon hearing of a plan as radical and fraught with a multitude of constitutional issues as this, would have jumped in with a barrage of questions and outrage? Not a frackin peep from these dolts questioning the sanity of Mr Buchannon to even suggest that such a ridiculous plan exists.
I’m telling you guys right now, the leadership of the US has already planned out how this crisis is going to go down and “defending the constitution of the US” isn’t among their list of objectives. They are forcing us into consolidating cultures and nations vis-a-vie an energy/financial crisis. When the smoke clears from this mess in a decade or so, we’ll be living under a totally new set of laws, borders and monetary system that is designed to increase control over the masses while reducing freedoms and rights.
Sorry for the early morning “tin foil” but this kind of mass media “conditioning” for what is coming just pisses me off.
Auguar,
you and I are on the same page on this. I think every step of the way, they have been gauging public opposition,and found that it is largely nil. Usurp powers never granted to the executive branch, open secret detention prisons in undisclosed countries with unknown numbers of prisoners with torture on the menu. Sell a war by deliberately hoaxing the citizenry. Allow illegal immigration on a massive scale. Trash the Justice dept, et. al.
The globalistas have their playbook and it’s working for them.
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Comment by auger-inn
2008-06-19 08:22:00
A glimmer of hope from the legislators in OK. I hope the rest of the states grow a pair.
I agree with you also Auger .I believe right now that it’s a real critical point in American History .
Comment by shuzilla
2008-06-19 15:48:53
“…open secret detention prisons in undisclosed countries with unknown numbers of prisoners…”
Hello…McFly?! Did you not just see what having a specified number of prisoners on US-controlled soil, decidedly un-secretly, got us? Enemy combatants now get rights to trial in US courts just like citizens.
If the globalists, by enacting their “playbook,” happen to save us from ourselves, perhaps they deserve the power over us that some folks attribute to them.
We’ll finally get to trade cheap labor for easy access to Mexican oil and beaches. AND when Mexico builds its big port on Baja, then LA doesn’t have to deal with all the smog and pollution we get from our ports. Sweet!
“I’m telling you guys right now, the leadership of the US has already planned out how this crisis is going to go down and “defending the constitution of the US” isn’t among their list of objectives.”
After watching the abbeviated second season of “Jericho” (Netflix) I think I know why it was cancelled: too close to the bone for the PTB.
A rogue President from Cheyenne–hmmm, Wyoming? Terrorist attacks that turn out to be an inside job? A bloodthirsty mercenary outfit called “Ravenwood” that takes over the town, is unaccountable for civilian killings and operates like an organized crime operation? Rationing? Confiscation of property? Checkpoints? I mean, really . . . what were they thinking?
But, hey! how `bout that Dale Earnhart, Jr. last week? I tell you what . . . .
Is Israel really worth the bother, of being the cause of starting World War 3?
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Comment by exeter
2008-06-19 06:40:47
Right on aladin. Nothing like making their problems our problems. I’ll never understand the rightwing asskissing of Israel.
Comment by vthousingbear
2008-06-19 07:03:08
All you need to understand is who actually the strongest toe-hold in the leadership of the Pentagon and Wall Street and it’s very clear why Israel is the 51st state.
Comment by Blano
2008-06-19 07:04:29
It sure is. Israel’s enemies have deserved a good kick in the a$$ for decades.
Comment by vthousingbear
2008-06-19 07:04:59
Oh, and the previous comment is not anti-semitic. It’s anti-zionist. Christian zionists in America wield a mighty sword these days.
Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-06-19 07:43:21
I’ll never understand the rightwing asskissing of Israel.
Some of it, at least, is rooted in the fundie idea that the Israelites and their “homeland” must play an essential role in the Rapture / Second Coming of That Charismatic Carpenter. Call it religious opportunism, maybe.
There are a handful of other reasons for that right wing support as well (some with merit, or at least debatable), but the fundamentalist angle is an important component.
Comment by vthousingbear
2008-06-19 07:45:21
“There are a handful of other reasons for that right wing support as well (some with merit, or at least debatable), but the fundamentalist angle is an important component.”
I tried to post the same thing but it didn’t go through. Christian Zionism plays a big part in American foreign policy. Herr Bush is one.
Comment by auger-inn
2008-06-19 08:00:04
Representative Ron Paul says House Speaker Nancy Pelosi removed a section from a bill passed by Congress which would have barred the U.S. from going to war with Iran without a congressional vote, claiming she did so at the behest of the leadership of Israel and AIPAC.
Paul, a former Republican presidential contender who formally removed himself from the party’s nomination race last week, makes the allegation on C-SPAN during a recently held foreign policy conference in Virginia.
Paul says Pelosi’s first act as House Speaker in 2006 was to “deliberately” remove a portion of a legislative spending bill which said the United States “can’t go to war with Iran without getting approval from Congress.”
According to Paul, Pelosi and her allies in the chamber’s Democratic leadership initially accepted the bill designed to outline an Iraq exit strategy, but during a revision of the legislation excluded the statement regarding the need for congressional approval of any military assault on the neighboring country of Iran.
“She [Pelosi] removed it deliberately,” Paul says. “And then, the astounding thing is, when asked why, she said the leadership in Israel asked her to. That was in the newspaper, that was in ‘The Washington Post,’ that she was asked by AIPAC and others not to do that.”
I imagine that Great Britain got hornswoggled into a similar defense treaty with Poland in the 1930’s, although few Britons had any ties to the country.
So what would be your solution to a nuclear Iran? Let Isreal our allies, be wiped off the map ?
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Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 06:42:15
Israel has plenty of nukes and Iran has none…
Now which country was the real threat?
Comment by cynicalgirl
2008-06-19 06:43:52
It’s not our job to defend Israel. Certainly not worth starting WW3 over. Besides, Israel already has 25 nukes, I don’t believe Iran is a threat. This sounds awfully like the “massive stockpiles of WMD” we were supposed to find in Iraq. Iran is at least 10 years away from a nuclear weapon.
Comment by BP
2008-06-19 07:01:01
Really, so your solution is to take out Israel because it is a “threat”? Using your insane logic Iran should have nukes to “balance” Israel? How many prime ministers of Israel have threatened to wipe Iran off the map? Let’s say Iran decides to nuke Israel and creates the second holocaust would your conscience be clear? Mine won’t. Never again.
Comment by Blano
2008-06-19 07:01:19
Iran. Period.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 07:10:23
Really, so your solution is to take out Israel because it is a “threat”? Using your insane logic Iran should have nukes to “balance” Israel? How many prime ministers of Israel have threatened to wipe Iran off the map? Let’s say Iran decides to nuke Israel and creates the second holocaust would your conscience be clear? Mine won’t. Never again.
Israel has sub nukes, so it’s a lose-lose deal were Iran to hit them with one or 2.
We have no conventional armed forces left (all deployed in various sandboxes) to attack Iran conventionally, so we are between Iraq and a hard place.
Why should we get involved?
Comment by cynicalgirl
2008-06-19 07:37:28
Iranian prime minister is not the “supreme leader”. The Ayatollah is. The fact that he’s the new boogeyman is simply more evidence that the neo-cons have no clue to what a real threat is. We’re being hood-winked AGAIN.
Comment by exeter
2008-06-19 08:04:36
I’ve eluded to the fact here on this blog that the real war is an economic one between China and the US. The mid-east hooey is a mere diversion but it seems to pass over the head of some ideological types. hint hint.
Comment by NovaWatcher
2008-06-19 09:33:46
Who’s Iran going to nuke? Israel?
1) If they nuke Israel, that means they nuke Palestine and the holy lands. Nevermind the fallout that will drift over Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. That’s not going to go over well with the Arab muslim states.
2) Israel is grown up now. They have nukes and can retaliate.
3) Israel has done plenty of stuff, that to me, seems un-American. Also, our association with them makes us look bad on the world stage. Let Israel take care of itself.
4) The only benefit nukes provide Iran is defense (e.g. nuking a carrier group as we try to invade).
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-06-19 10:07:56
If the US takes care of Israel, then they don’t have to spend money on defense, and can build more housing in occupied territories, socialized medicine, etc.
It’s not that they can’t take care of themselves, they just won’t if they don’t have to.
Comment by shuzilla
2008-06-19 15:57:55
“We have no conventional armed forces left (all deployed in various sandboxes) to attack Iran conventionally, so we are between Iraq and a hard place.”
Riddle me this, riddle me that…
What nation beginning with the letter “I” lies between the sandboxes known as Iraq and Afghanistan?
Hint… the president of the nation in question claims to have discussions with the Twelfth Imam who dwells at the bottom of a well, and the only way to get him to come out is the Islamification of the entire planet.
The bombs out back, Camp Pendleton, are being dropped in double time now. Rapid fire bombs instead of every minute.
When I hear the choppers going over in the middle of the night, that means more young men are shippin’ out.
No late night chopper flights yet.
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Comment by Jwhite
2008-06-19 07:16:56
Are you around Pendleton? I spent my teens in San Clemente.
Comment by oxide
2008-06-19 07:25:07
Humble words and increased preparations are signs that the enemy is about to advance — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
Sounds like Cheney is ramping up for one last par-tay before the moving van pulls up on Kalorama Ave.
Comment by ahansen
2008-06-19 10:09:45
“When I hear the choppers going over in the middle of the night, that means more young men are shippin’ out.
No late night chopper flights yet.”
Hey, Ouro,
Can you imagine the official consternation should a group of dedicated bloggers coordinate on this?
I live in restricted airspace bordering a test flight area–one which is remarkably similar to Afghanistan/Mid Yeast in terrain and weather patterns. When we start getting the 10pm-2am over-flights, (shhhhhhhh, it’s nighttime and nobody can hear us…) it’s a sure sign something invasive is afoot and I invest accordingly. In fifteen years, hasn’t failed me once. Heartbreaking but remunerative.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 10:50:06
What would you expect from an administration that has perfected the art of covering up a mess, by creating another one?
Gut a REPUG and you’ll find a DEM inside. Different wings–same bird of prey. Partisanship is for tools. But it does keep the proles preoccupied, doesn’t it?
Oh, so we don’t have enough refineries? The high gas prices is a refinery issue?
Lol. The refineries are now running at less than full capacity because the consumption of gasolone has FALLEN in this country.
It’s the price of oil, not the shortage of gasoline being refined, that is causing the high gasoline prices.
From the article:
“The view that high oil prices are due to a shortage of refining capacity in industrialized nations was supported this week by the United Arab emeirates Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamlin.”
Think about this statement for a minute. This guy is saying the high oil prices are due to a shortage of oil refineries. But if there was a shortage of refineries there should be a decreased demand for the oil that goes into these refineries, not an increased demand.
A shortage of refineries would translate into a shortage of gasoline. Anyone notice any gas lines lately?
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Comment by combotechie
2008-06-19 10:30:15
From today’s WSJ (page A12): “Highway Trust Revenue Expected to Have Shortfall”
Due to decreased gasoline consumption “Trust fund revenue is projected to run a shortfall of at least $3 billion next year …”
“We’re burning less fuel as energy costs change driving patterns, steer people toward more fuel-efficient vehicles and encourage more to use transit.”
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 12:51:01
Shortage of refineries translates in shortage of gasoline at a -specific- price. Anyone can see it every time he/she drives by a gas station. There is 0 gazoline that can be had at $3.25/gal, $3.26/gal, $3.27 etc…. There is gasoline to be had at $4.11/gal. When that runs out there is going to be gasoline at $4.12/gal, etc.
Refineries are NOT buying crude on a spot market. Neither they are buying crude at prices for Jul delivery today. They are consumers of oil. Futures for them is a hedge. We have not yet seen the price of gasoline to reflect oil price greater than $130.
Comment by combotechie
2008-06-19 13:38:01
I understood nothing from your post.
What I do understand is gas consumption in this country has fallen off. This means refiners don’t need to convert as much oil into gasoline as they once did, which means they need less oil.
Whether refiners they buy oil on the spot market, take deliveries on the futures market - or whatever - has no bearing on the fact that they need less oil because consumers are using less gas.
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 13:44:30
There is no such thing as “demand”. There is only demand at a specific price.
Comment by combotechie
2008-06-19 14:19:52
“There is no such thing as ‘demand’”.
Oh.
“There is only demand at a specific price.”
But… but…but you just said there is no such thing as demand.
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 14:46:50
Again, there is no such thing as a demand… there is only demand at a specific price.
Comment by combotechie
2008-06-19 15:27:01
Which accounts for … what exactly?
As the price for gas goes up the consumption goes down. Is that what you are saying?
If so, then you must also be saying that if the consumption for gas goes down then the need for refining oil into gas must go down as well.
Thus the need for more refineries to convert oil into gas must also go down.
Therefore the high oil prices must not be caused by a lack of refineries but for some other reason.
Agree?
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 21:48:45
Consumption is an f’(x) not f(x). f’(x) != f(x). In fact f’(x) has nothing in common with f(x). Using f(x) to describe f’(x) is stupid.
Better ideas… always win ( I don’t think he is a communist or a supporter of the GOP) :
“What if oil prices collapse?
If they do, our oil exploration won’t go so well, but we’ll be compensated by the profits we get from our various airlines. If they go the other way, the oil-exploration and -refinery business will be fine. It’s quite a good hedge. We would almost rather damage the oil price and see it come down. It will take more than ourselves to have an effect on the marketplace.”
Heard on the radio this morning that DC is numero uno, with 13 foreclosures per 1,000 homes sold. Reportedly higher than Miami or Florida. WTOP news, metro DC.
Woo woo! We’re picking up speed on the road to sanity.
I keep throwing these types of stats around, but just get ignored.
“Its different in DC!”
“Real estate only goes up here”
“DC is recession immune”
People are really brainwashed hear, and they all think they are rich. I keep telling them, if my wife and i can’t afford the average house in this area there is a problem. (we are a grade 29) They say, of course…. Get a starter home, you have to start somewhere.. It makes me laugh.
This whole idea of a starter home is just crazy. I never once heard my parents growing up talking about a starter home. They bought a home they wanted to live in, not one that was just termporary. If they wanted temporary, they would rent. Where the hell did this idea of a starter home come from? I know, must the RE industry. Just another scam on us gullible consumers.
I agree 100%. With the transaction costs so high, the only way this makes any sense is if the starter houses are guaranteed to go up in price and the one you move to isn’t (yeah, pull the other one) or if there are no rentals in safe neighborhoods, at all. Maybe a tiny bit if you are completely incapable of saving money in which case you shouldn’t have been able to get a loan even for the starter shack.
This whole “dream house” thing is a big problem too.
I disagree. A starter home is a low-price home where you can start building equity instead of throwing money away on rent.* Presumably, 3-4 years (and 1- 2 babies) later, you sell and move to more permanent digs. The small appreciation covered your closing costs and interest, and you could effectively transfer your payments on principle, the equity, to a down payment on a trade-up. Theoretically, by retirement in 30 years you would have enough equity pay off “a” house, even if it’s your 3rd or 4th house.
I don’t see why this is such a bad plan.
*remember this is back when house prices were low enough and loans were sane enough that renting WAS throwing money away.
“Inflation is in the pipes,” declares Bill Bonner. “Soon, it will be backing up in the bathtub drain and spilling over from the sink. Over the last 15 years, the world has seen huge inputs of ‘liquidity’ - cash and credit from central banks and the financial industry. Everyone was perfectly happy when this juice was going into asset prices. But one by one the bubbles have popped and now the liquidity goes where it is unwelcome - into commodities, food, and fuel.
“Consumers and central banks are both trapped. Central banks want to lower rates and increase liquidity in order to stimulate a sagging economy. But their inflation no longer swells assets prices and nourishes economic growth; now it leaks into consumer prices.
“And the poor American consumer! He spent his entire career preparing for an economy that no longer exists. He has a big house, a big car, and, often, a big mortgage. America’s far-flung suburbs were invented when gasoline was only about 25 cents a gallon and real U.S. incomes were rising.”
The notion of inflation always corresponding with rising wages is rubbish. It comes from the time when the same product could be manufactured in two different locations two miles away from each other and because customers of one location did not know the customers of the other location, the prices between the two products were highly different.
Comment by exeter
2008-06-19 10:30:19
Ok… Your next sentence is gold always goes up and we’re running out of oil.
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-06-19 10:35:33
Evil,
Isn’t that what companies do now? Some past news reports stated Amazon was charging different prices for a book in different parts of the country (only using Amazon as an example).
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 12:42:24
You are looking at a price descrimination. Different location in the country means different shipping costs not just for amazon but also for its competition. It makes sense that the -price- of item will be different. It makes no sense that identical goods will be sold right next to each other for different price.
Here is a practical example: There was a time when I needed to buy 8,000 sq. feet panels for raised floors. We found a place in KY where we could get it dirt cheap but we had to deal with shipment. We had a place in the next country that wanted us to pay 3x the price of buying in KY and shipping it for the priviledge of buying the same product from them. The funny part was… it ended up being the same manufacturer that did not figure out his dealer in KY was able to market to customers in PA.
Comment by sartre
2008-06-19 20:34:23
“expansion of money supply is here”
what expansion? The 3 trillion in lost home equity or bear sterns going from 180 to 10 bucks or 1 trillion in bank writedowns?
Umm. From Beltway Banditsville. A friend who is an software developer called. Her employer — a brand name IT house — gave out a general announcement this week. All developer salaries are being “releveled” (not upward). The work is going overseas, so if you want your job, you deal with the global economy and commoditized pay.
“25c a gallon”
Yes indeed. But if you adjust for the inflation in other goods and services, that 25c a gallon would now be maybe between $1 and $2 a gallon. Certainly much less than today’s gas price, but the rhetorical point of calling it 25c a gallon is misleading.
Yeah but…in 1970 I used to work in Las Vegas and drive home to LA when I had time off. I always drove a little 4-banger, a Corvair and then two different VWs. I could fill the tank for less than $3, and the trip was 280 miles. Took one tank..so I drove for a penny a mile. I thought that was pretty amazing, even at the time. A quart of milk, a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas were all about .30.
He spent his entire career preparing for an economy that no longer exists. He has a big house, a big car, and, often, a big mortgage.
Wow. Well, no actually, I haven’t. I’ve spent the last few years divesting myself of the house and mortgage, paying off the car and CC debt, moving within five miles of work and making sure I can stay within five miles of work.
I can’t say I saw this coming, I just know that after fighting the mortgage/debt fight from 1994 until 2004 I was done.
‘He (American consumer) has a big house, a big car, and, often, a big mortgage.’
Nope. Nope, and….why, nope to that one, too! Hooray! I knew there was a reason I sleep so good. I get happier by the day that I never bought into other people’s versions of being an American consumer.
It’s OK because some goods are scarce. When people get to the point of substituting their own labor for some of the energy they are using, the free market will have done its job.
i don’t understand why they don’t point out to mr. ben that when prices are only going up then they are no longer “volitile” and should be considered when evaluating the “real” inflation rate.
When it comes to oil prices, what happens here in the U.S. matters less and less each day. Notice that from April to May, even with U.S. sliding deeper into recession, and with oil prices shooting up, the rate of new car sales in China actually INCREASED. Ask yourself why this little tidbit has not been reported in U.S. media.
BEIJING, June 7 (Xinhua) — Passenger car sales in China in the first five months of 2008 rose 17.41 percent over the same period a year earlier, an industry group said on Friday.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), car sales reached 3.02 million units, including 2.23 million sedans, 179,200 sport-utility vehicles (SUV) and 93,200 multi-utility vehicles (MUV) in the period.
Sales of passenger cars, SUV, and MUV in May alone totaled 564,600, up 16 percent over the same month last year. The growth rate was quicker than April’s 11 percent.
Auto sales in China were expected to exceed 10 million units this year, which would represent a full year sales growth of 14 percent, CAAM said. Auto sales have maintained double-digit growth since the beginning of the year, in contrast to weakening sales in much of the world’s other major auto markets.
April ‘08 …Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 32 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent…
“It’s critical to remember that the stock market crash didn’t cause the Great Depression, the Great Depression caused the stock market to crash. It was an era, not an event…”
Great perception.
And, futhermore it was only the coming of WW II which ended the era.
I don’t think I agree. Galbraith’s fine book, The Great Crash, is mainly an argument that the crash caused the depression, not the other way around. While I am politically on the opposite side from Galbraith on most issues, I found the argument persuasive.
Monetary policy also stunk back then. Major liquidity issues existed in the early 30’s caused by Fed ineptitude.
What we are on the brink of will make the previous GD look like a vacation in the tropics.
Things aren’t bad yet but I’ve already noticed more people getting CC’s rejected at checkouts and cars stopped in the middle of the road because people are too stupid/poor to pay for the gas to run the things.
What matters now is the US jobs market and the desire for foreign countries to continue to bankroll the gluttonous American lifestyle. Alas I think both are losing bets for the foreseeable future.
I can’t even wrap my head around this. It sounds like some backdoor stuff going on (Monroe County, NY). Is this some sort of weird bailout-stuff-friend’s-pocket-with-cash deal?
Hooooey I need patience. So I did some research on that acre of land nearby that used to be a landscape company. Much easier when you can see what they’ve signed.
400k + Arm mortgage on the place. They probably want at least half a million or more for it. Or it was a take the money and run situation. I’ll just wait for the tax sale, maybe 10 years before the county gets to it. At least I know how to look and where to look to see each years taxes going in arrears.
Crush the commuter day today. I’m not looking forward to it.
O.k., I promise this will be a soft generational snipe (o.k., maybe not). But seriously, do boomers hate everything they’re doing? Why do they keep doing it? Only the hallucinogenic generation with come up with something silly like an “encore” career. You want purpose? Undo all of your “progress” of the last 30 years.
You want walkable, then why do you build the suburbs? You want good health care, then don’t be so damn cheap? You want a meaningful career, then why didn’t you get one? You want your steak cooked properly, then WAIT.
Re-define it man, re-define it! You’re going to change the world!!
By the way, to the boomers that I anger here, my apologies. I am overly sensitive because I hear this stuff non-stop in Florida… everywhere I go… all day…
It blows my mind to hear people complain about how crowded Florida is, then they complain that it’s overdeveloped, then they complain about the service, their food, the beach… everything.
Even in high school I gave my parents crap for constantly returning partially used goods to places like Sears and demanding a full refund. They could never make the connection.
Muggy, boomers did not build the suburbs. I was born in 45 so am a few months older than “boomers” — but I didn’t build the suburbs either. They were built by my parents’ generation, and continued to be built by the parents of boomers. When gas was cheap in the 1980’s, boomers then probably contributed to the expansion of the burbs, although I myself was living in a subway-reachable burb.
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Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-06-19 08:15:58
While suburbs certainly existed pre-WWII, they were a far different beast than the post-1945 version. The suburbs as we generally conceive of them were first built for the about-to-be Boomers and their parents.
Then the Boomers managed to take poor planning, sprawl, shoddy construction and overdevelopment to a whole new level once they took the reins …
Yeah I have to admit, the suburb I was born in (Eagle Rock Ca) was built at the end of a streetcar line. They were streetcar suburbs back in the day. Then the streetcars went away. But that all went down when we boomers were toddlers.
As for returning used goods for full refund, I am appalled by some of non-boomer people i know who really work the system so they don’t have to pay anything. Target lets you return no questions asked in 90 days. The girlfriend of a friend will get an exercise bike, use it 90 days and return it for a full refund, then get something else.
If she needs to use a digital camera for an event, she’ll “buy” one, use it, and then return it.
With all the dumb stuff Ben prints up for us everyday to laugh at, spoken by non-boomers, it seems like an obssession to blame boomers for everything.
But hearing people like that complain all day would drive me nuts, too, so who knows what I’d be writing here if i was in your shoes.
“Encore” career? That’s has to be the single best way to say “I didn’t save anything” that I’ve ever heard.
One has to laugh at the retirement fetish this society has - it goes hand in hand with the housing fetish. What are workers supposed to do? Spend the first half of their life fantasizing about retirement - and then spend the second half fantasizing about lost youth?
The simple and inexorable passage of time will be lethal for much of this society - more so than bird flu, OBL, obesity combined.
I’m actually starting out on a second (3rd?) career myself. My little business is very viable economically, but it’s boring the POOP out of me. I’m retraining to become a nurse practioner (I only have to take the nursing specific course, I’ve done everything else except for a 2 level Psych course).
It will take 2.5 years end to end, but I’ll then have a skill I can take anywhere that the wife goes. On top of that, I always wanted a medical career. When I went back to school the first time I retired, I oriented my education towards science and pre-med along with my other major. It’s paying of with the number of classes I don’t have to take. I’m really looking forward to doing this.
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Comment by peter a
2008-06-19 06:39:36
Jwite I was talking to the PA and the doc the other day in the ER I take my clinicals in, they were saying there is a doctor shortage coming in the next 5-10 years. They also said that they are looking to grandfather PA’s, Nurse Practitioners, in to doctors. If true it would be the cheapest med school around. Myself I am finishing my RN then off to PA school. Good luck in community health that I hear is as boring as post pardum care.
Comment by Meshell
2008-06-19 06:49:20
Sounds very cool, Jwhite. Anecdotally, my dad was in the hospital for most of last year and *every* NP we dealt with went way above and beyond for him. (It was a big contrast to the nurses and doctors, who were much more a mixed bag.)
Comment by Jwhite
2008-06-19 07:00:42
Thanks to both of you for your comments. I considered both PA and NP tracks. Since I get a major discount for the RN portion of it (courtesy my wife) I decided the NP route was the way to go.
I can also go for and advance NP certificate later which will bring me on par with an acute care PA. I’ve already received two employment offers for when I finish just the RN portion and a “if you don’t contact me when you finish your NP program, I’m gonna…” from a hospital administrator.
You can’t just sit around and wait for the future to come to you, I far prefer to go and find it. On my own terms.
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-06-19 10:43:59
Jwhite,
My mom’s general is a NP. She loves her NP. Wouldn’t have it any other way. She has had MDs and feels she has gotten better treatment from her NP (mom belongs to Kaiser). What impressed her the most about the NP was being able to directly contact the NP without having to go through the Kaiser call center.
As is true with so many things, the fantasy of retirement is much better than the reality.
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Comment by txchick57
2008-06-19 05:40:26
beg to differ. I have fully embraced the slacker lifestyle and would never go back.
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-06-19 06:25:45
I’m enjoying every day of my retirement (3+ years now) even though I know how it ends. Carpe diem.
Comment by Tim
2008-06-19 06:27:58
So true. If you have money, health, interests and friends, not having to work is a blessing.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-19 06:47:24
“If work is so good for us, how come they have to pay us to do it?”
Anonymous New Zealander
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-06-19 07:06:11
Yeah chick, everytime you make money shorting,
I go shopping. Shop Lite shop often.
Comment by auger-inn
2008-06-19 07:26:09
I’ve enjoyed my first 3 years of retirement as well. I’m leaving on my morning hike with 2 hounds in tow (or vis-versa) as we speak! I’ll be back!
Comment by peaceful
2008-06-19 07:59:55
I’m sure retirement with lots of money is fantastic!
But if someone doesn’t have enough to retire, and is willing to keep working . . .why would anyone have a problem with that? Or maybe some people actually need the structure of a job to stay involved and happy.
I am hoping to have tons of money saved up, but right now it looks like i should expect to work forever. I am not perfect like so many people on this blog. : )
I think working and staying connected, at least keeps you from losing touch with reality like those people Muggy is talking about.
Comment by peaceful
2008-06-19 08:03:38
txchick, i thought you worked for yourself, as a day trader . . .although i admit, i know nothing about you . . . so that was an assumption, but it sounds like your definition of slacker lifestyle might be different than some peoples . . .
but congrats on having a life so many would want, by creating your own income and not working for “the man”!
Comment by txchick57
2008-06-19 10:14:01
I guess you could say that. It doesn’t seem like work to me.
Comment by tresho
2008-06-19 10:27:36
It doesn’t seem like work to me. Define ‘work’ as anything one does to bring in money, then, including signing checks & CC slips and clicking a mouse to move $ from one of your accounts to another. Babies, the comatose & royalty might be among the few considered unemployed/retired.
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-06-19 10:52:35
“I have fully embraced the slacker lifestyle and would never go back.”
About three in 10 Americans “currently in an encore career,” or CEC, are working in education, 23% are working in health care, 16% in government, 13% in non-profit organizations and 9% in for-profit businesses that serve a public good. Most — six in 10 — work 40 hours per week or more and the majority of CECs say they are very satisfied with their jobs.
Phfffffffttttttttt…Whatta crock.
Look at the job content…namby-pamby, touchy-feely tax payer supported do-nothing jobs that produce virtually nothing of material substance. Oooooooo…I’m so comfy!
How come professions like engineers, bridge & highway repairmen, masons, carpenters, loggers, fishermen, shoe makers, farmers, auto ech/assemblyperson, & infantrymen appear on the list?
It’s no wonder we’re being flushed down the socio/economic crapper.
I guess you meant, how come they DON’T appear on the list. And I think the answer is easy. The jobs on your list mostly require physical as well as mental vitality, and are not suitable for retirees. Be glad older people are available to do the govt stuff, their availability may keep it cheaper. But mainly it’s up to voters to keep it cheaper, and/or kill some govt fluff funcs.
Actually, yesterday I was delighted to see a little photocopied ad for a new shoe repair shop in Rockport TX where I am hanging out this week. The slogan is “Master of 8 trades” and the ad included a list of things the guy could do for repair or renovation of leather and lots of other things. From the blurry photo, I’d say a retired guy.
So nice after my part of Austin, where any remotely useful business is getting driven further out, replaced by overpriced condos, boutiques, and too many high-end sports shops.
My grandfather was a civil engineer. When he retired, he went to work for my cousin (his neice) who ran a private school that took on a bunch of the kids the Boston school system rejected as being too difficult. He taught woodshop to the young ones and started a carpenter’s apprentice program for the older ones. He managed to teach kids who could barely make change how to read a ruler and safely run power tools. The kids decided that he must have a black belt in karate because he wasn’t scared of them, even the ones who were a foot taller than he was.
A buddy a mine decided that they were sending the wrong guys to the Middle East. Instead of sending 18-21 yr olds that had something to live for, they needed to send us 40-something, pissed-off-at-the-world guys with crappy marriages/divorces. Because….
-The killer-instinct is already well ingrained.
-We have nothing to live for.
-As long as the paycheck keeps showing up (no problem……Direct Deposit), the wife and teen-age kids would rather not have us around.
-We need the vacation.
-All the running around dodging bullets and grenades will do us some good.
Funny scenario, but it’s no accident that most grunts are “kids”.
Teens are more easily brainwashed and turned into partisan killing machines, are more physically resilient and, just happen to think they’re bulletproof. That’s been the formula for building armies throughout history.
My father’s an engineer. He’s 82 and on his second encore career. The first was as a consultant. He’s now a partner in a company that he and three colleagues started in ‘01.
“Look at the job content…namby-pamby, touchy-feely tax payer supported do-nothing jobs that produce virtually nothing of material substance. Oooooooo…I’m so comfy!”
“How come professions like engineers, bridge & highway repairmen, masons, carpenters, loggers, fishermen, shoe makers, farmers, auto ech/assemblyperson, & infantrymen appear on the list? ”
Um, it is due to the fact that the suvey DEFINED an encore career so that it excluded people who work as assemblypersons, fishermen, etc.
“The 9.5 percent [of workers 40 to 77, given phone or internet survey] who meet the broader definition: either say the description of an encore career is what they do or currently work 15 hours of more per week for a salary or stipend, have a job a non-profit, government agency, or at an entity that they say is more focused on ’serving the public good’ than on making a profit…., describe themselves as retired but still working…”
For instance, a Civil Engineer who designed dams or bridges for a private company would be excluded by definition.
===============
The usual moral: don’t try to make any sense out of suvey data unless you have read the survey and the sampling methodology
Why do people post their house on craigslist and only include one picture - of the bathroom? Is that the best view of the property they can find to take a picture of? Makes no sense to me.
Probably because the crack neighborhood surrounding the property wouldn’t be too photogenic! (those bullet holes in the walls probably not a selling point either)
For the same reason they advertise vacation rentals in the city where they live, instead of the location of their rental. What is a greater than assumed amount of stupidity.
This is why I feel more at home with credit unions than banks.
We got hit with a $20 fee for depositing a Canadian check (even though it was drawn in American dollars). When we challenged it, they refunded the fee with absolutely no hassles whatsoever. CUs are not-for-profit, so no skin off their backs.
I forgot who was stating the real worry was commercial slowdown as it was much bigger than all the residential. Seems that turkey is coming home to roost with a 70% slowdown…and with commercial slowdown I think you next have to infer jobs as well…yow.
It’s pretty evident the other RE shoe is dropping, but what machinations will the Fed pull to try to get around this? Provide a funding vehicle for REITs? I would not be surprised.
The just broke ground of 7 million sq feet of warehouse space near me.
In the fall, they break ground on a new outlet mall 2 miles from me.
Ground breaks next Spring on a new outdoor shopping complex (a new town center style shopping district).
Ground breaks Fall/Spring on a new housing development, with 3,000 homes planned.
I-75 is being widened from 6 lanes to 8 lanes between Cincinnati & Dayton.
New interstate interchanges are being added.
Roads are being widened.
It’s developement/development/development as far as you can drive on a tank of gas!!!
Lets wait and see how much is actual built over the next few years. The warehouse projects is starting with less than 700,000 sq. ft., the new outdoor shopping complex is still trying to get its plans together with no signed tenants and the housing development still is not off the ground. The outlet mall is the only item that is a given at this time.
One of the problems with commercial construction and construction loans is: Once you are approved for the loan, you must follow through with the construction or you are in default.
Some of these current construction projects were approved 3 yrs ago and construction is just starting.
Another thing that is showing up is banks overlending for commercial.
I borrow $40MM, the bank writes up $45MM; when I cannot pay my loan payment, the bank takes it out of the reserve set up. Technically I am not in default. Reality is I am BK.
It is very difficult to read the ‘dark matter’ in bank statements.
There were plans to build some monstrosity here called “Grand Central”. The developer quietly announced the other week that it is being delayed. I’m guessing that it will never see the light of day. Its not even mentioned in the Centerra website anymore. DOA!
I used to work at a GM plant in Norwood (encircled by the ‘Nati, for those geographicallly challenged), sanding GM Camaros one summer. It’s old news that that manufacturing rusted for the most part in the city, where I grew up. Fine town, place to grow up, place to leave, place to visit in adulthood.
I woudn’t be so sure of all those groundbreakings. Some parts have developed rapidly, but the city looks the same every time I visit; maybe a new ballpark here and there, but neighborhoods mostly frozen in time. I have the same feeling of “sameness” when I visit a tiny hamlet called Underhill Center, Vt., where I vacationed as a kid, which sho’ hasn’t changed much, though the New Yorkers and Bostonites got their second homes built - usually where you can’t see ‘em.
Anyway, it is hard to imagine Cinti. exploding with umpteen million square feet of useable commercial space.
IMHO.
I only get back there four times a year or so, so I could be wrong.
Very nice to see a post from what I consider my hometown, so thanks.
is SRS a viable way to play a commercial slowdown or is it too “derivative”?
in other words, my understanding is that SRS is primarily REITs — a slowdown in construction or tanking in value of commercial lots seems like it might take a few years to wind into rents being severely impacted (don’t the leases usually go for 3 to 5 years?)
Granted there are some “issues” with mom and pops drying up and blowing away, but wouldn’t the FED pushing rates down to battle the “deflation” bug-a-boo just make the crap REIT returns look more attractive and offset this?
I pray we can get a good discussion going on this because I’m struggling with any way to “profit” from a commercial melt-down other than SRS which has the aforementioned “issues”.
Is there a lender or two primarily focused on commercial we should be shooting at?
Futures rising a little ahead of employment reports, what if they miss the predictions? I think it’ll be a massive slide if they do. People are getting pretty jittery. Around here, the wealthiest people in town asked me to get them the phone number for Treasury Direct (they’re elderly and don’t really Google too well) so they could pile their bucks into T-Bills. They’re wealthy enough so a 2-3% yield is a pile of cash. Wonder how many similar types are doing the same?
Meanwhile, Jim, a talk show caller, added, “This man is the chairman of the Senate Banking Commission and he says he doesn’t know that he got a good deal? Then he’s incompetent, he should step down from his position immediately.”
i dunno about that.. we do have this election coming up..
The campaign rhetoric is boiling down to housing, foreclosures, job loss, recession and spreading it’s tentacles into mortgage fraud.. lenders.. and Mr. Banking Committee Dodd, supposedly oblivious to accepting a most profitable “favor” from a bank (?!) is putting the ’stupid’ in the it’s-the-economy-stupid. He is a problem..
The Press has really picked up on this. It has legs.
Greetings from Walt Disney World, Florida! Hotels here are 100% booked! (I tried to change my reservation and discovered there are no rooms available on property anywhere at any price.)
Anyway, that’s not the point of my post.
The point of my post is the big story on the first page of the Business Section of USA Today (which I only read when I get it in a hotel).
It seems that SHOPLIFTING is way up! The story cites rising prices, ease of selling on the internet, and lack of staff on retail floors as the causes. And it’s not just professional rings doing it. Ordinary folk are stealing their baby formula….
“Greetings from Walt Disney World, Florida! Hotels here are 100% booked!”
Florida is chock-full of foreigners right now. I myself have been shocked at the amount of people cramming the International Mall in Tampa during the week! It really is hard to wrap my mind around what I’m seeing at the moment. I don’t say they’re buying homes, but they sure seem to be buying lots of crap at the stores.
It’s tourist season in Chicago, too, and I’ve encountered a number of French (at retail stores), Germans (on the train, and at a sporting goods store), Italians (at a bar, watching World Cup games) and Japanese (at Wrigley Field, and buying vintage from my friends).
Still seeing a lot of American tourists here as well, but a lot of them appear to be fellow Midwesterners.
Last night I placed my leaking, dead water heater out by the curb for the city sanitation people to pick up. A junk scavenger got it before the city could. What is a defunct water heater worth, anyway?
Update! Just spoke to a woman who told me her building (condos) are now more than 50% empty. In Celebration (Disney’s planned community). Imagine how the developments way out in Lake or Polk county are doing….
Machado worried that cracking down on mortgage bankers and brokers could dry up credit and “restrict the accessibility to home loans for the very people” lawmakers were trying to help.
Do you think he really believes these no-money-down teaser-rate adjustable mortgage that quickly reset to 9% interest, charge 15K in fees rolled into the mortgage, and $35K prepayment penalty…..make housing accessible?
I know these are called “affordability products” by the Industry, but if Machado was paying attention, he’d know that these were 50% of the problem. (The other 50% being home equity loans)
“This is worse than the S&L crisis. This is the first time - this is the worst credit bubble we’ve ever had in American history. No - ever in American history have people been able to buy a house with no money down, never. That’s never happened anytime in the world. So, we have the worst credit bubble. It’s going to take a long time to work its way out. You don’t cure a bubble in five or six months… It takes five or six years.”
Jim Rogers, November 6, 2007 (Bloomberg interview with Kathleen Hays)
LOL. I’d tell him to check out the “Epic Credit Bubble” (Russ Winter’s) thread on SI which goes back several years before that. That’s how I found this blog. We have been bitching about all this since about 2001
Yes, but with a caveat, you have to pay a 1-3 % fee, depending on whether you’ve had a VA loan before and you have to come come up with a couple grand in closing costs - Which I believe you can roll into your loan. The maximum loan amount is 240K if I remember.
RE: That’s never happened anytime in the world. So, we have the worst credit bubble. It’s going to take a long time to work its way out. You don’t cure a bubble in five or six months… It takes five or six years.”
If it’s never happened anytime in the world…who is to say it will take ONLY “five or six years” to restore financial order.
My guess is that this is a disaster of generational scope and dimension directly related to the economics of the demographic bulge of 80 million baby boomers.
Things will never be the same after this Nazi-esque looting of the public domain.
Obama and McCain Spout Economic Nonsense By KARL ROVE
“Messrs. Obama and McCain both reveal a disturbing animus toward free markets and success. It is uncalled for and self-defeating for presidential candidates to demonize American companies. It is understandable that Mr. Obama, the most liberal member of the Senate, would endorse reckless policies that are the DNA of the party he leads. But Mr. McCain, a self-described Reagan Republican, should know better.”
Like everything else, those profits came out of our pockets! What I’d really like to know:
1) How much the governmental agencies made? Or, if oil and gas industries made $86.5 billion in the last year, how much did the state and federal government’s make?
2) How much did Hollywood make in the last year?
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Comment by txchick57
2008-06-19 06:42:25
1. 15% is the number I hear
2. Yes, amazing isn’t it that we never hear any calls for windfall profits taxes on Tom Cruise or Barbara Streisand.
Comment by az_lender
2008-06-19 07:21:46
1. Forbes Magazine is usually publishing figures like 22%. Admittedly, they have an ax to grind. (But so do I.)
I wonder if Karl’s been taking any dance lessons since bailing out of the “Yale school of cheer-leading” Administration
“The entrepreneur is “the pivot on which everything turns,” Schumpeter argued, and “proceeds by competitively destroying old businesses.”
He forgets to mention what happens when “Other Parties”… with “Power & Influence” …don’t want “new competition”: Anybody out there have a “Windows based” computer?
“During the trouble Tucker faced while trying to promote his car and get it into production, he claimed that the “Big Three” automakers were deliberately attempting to sabotage his efforts, through the influence of Detroit Senator Homer Ferguson, who is commonly held responsible for initiating the SEC’s pursuing of Tucker’s business.”
Don’t know if you saw this but they were able to come to bipartisan agreement yesterday on the extension of unemployment benefits, which really is the a stimulative measure IMO. They compromised on a requirement that people getting the extension have worked at least 20 weeks prior to filing for unemployment (no problem with that) and in excising the provision to give another 13 weeks (26 total) to people in higher unemployment states.
I’m suspicious of any of these stats. As I recall, if you factor in “discouraged” workers, the actual rate of unemployment is close to 10%. Add in the welfare and disability crowd (34% of non-disabled people and 30% of total workforce respectively here where I live) and the total number must be pushing 20%.
I know many of the folks here go to high unemployment payment states up North, work the minimum, get themselves laid off somehow, then collect the bennies till they have to go back. One individual has funded quite a nice spread here by doing this in multiple states.
Here in WNC the good old mountain folks know how to game the system. Everybody complains about jobs but nobody shows up for work. They work the required time and then get fired to go collect the government checks. The best thing government could do for the economy (at least in this area) would be to cut back on all the benefits and force the bums to go out and work.
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Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-06-19 15:13:54
Sounds like what my aunt had to deal with when she worked at a resort in Vermont. When people showed up on time, ready to work, it was newsworthy.
Comment by Gadfly
2008-06-19 16:18:46
Northern Arizona suffers from it, too. When I moved here in `99 every potential employer, when they found out I was from “back east”, was eager to hire me.
California has 14-million workers and a population of 40-million plus.
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Comment by spacepest
2008-06-19 12:40:57
HUH!? How is that possible? Got any info/statistics to back this up?
(And if this is true, I wonder if illegal immigration has skewed these numbers any, since an illegal immigrant probably wouldn’t be reported as a “employee” anywhere, in which case we have a whole underground system of people working but not being reported to the government as such).
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-06-19 13:51:14
Not sure where rms got his numbers spacepest. Got these from the CA labor
Labor Market Information for California Data Archives Current Data
For the Month of April 2008
Civilian Labor Force (seasonally adjusted) 18,384,200
Employment (seasonally adjusted) 17,247,000
Unemployment (seasonally adjusted) 1,137,200
Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) 6.2%
Total Nonfarm Industry Employment (seasonally adjusted) 15,162,300
Average Hourly Wage in 2007 - First Quarter $21.78
“I believe the federal government should create a firewall to prevent too great a fall in housing prices. It is important to go beyond the legislation that is about to be enacted by the Senate, which would help some homeowners who have negative equity but would not do anything to forestall the growth of this problem. This can best be done through a program of mortgage replacement loans.”
Why is it that normally sane people completely lose their minds when it comes to falling house prices?
This proposal does nothing to prevent prices falling.. He’s just fishing for FB’s.
The bait is a low interest govt loan for up to 25% of the value. The hook is it’s non-recourse. The non-recourse means they dont just get up and walk when their mortgage debt turns upside down.
it’s actually quite ingenious, imho, and appears to be deceptive enough to work. After all, it snagged a couple people already.
I’m confused; if the loan is non-recourse then the borrower has less incentive to stick around for the whole term as the lender can’t attach any other assets.
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Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-06-19 10:34:25
i screwed up.. too many conversations going on at once..
It would be a full-recourse loan that would have to be repaid regardless of what happens to the borrower’s mortgage or home.
substitute full for non
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-06-19 12:39:36
This guys is a freaking idiot.
Consumers would have to be BRAIN-DEAD to substitute a recourse loan for a non-recourse loan.
He’s basically advocating that the govt bribe people into agreeing to be locked into their houses. That would only help the market freeze up and prolong the pain.
In Yahoo news - where’s NYCityBoy, he’d LOVE this:
NEW YORK - Two former Bear Stearns managers have been arrested, federal authorities said Thursday, becoming the first executives to face criminal charges related to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.
Matthew Tannin was taken into custody outside his New Jersey home on Thursday morning and Ralph Cioffi was arrested at his New York City home, the FBI said.
The indictments, according to the Journal, will cite a personal email exchanged between Tannin and Cioffi, suggesting that the funds they had invested in - mostly complex bond securities - was “toast.” It was four days from the date of the first e-mail to when Cioffi and Tannin informed investors not to worry.
Tannin, in an April 22nd, 2007 e-mail to Cioffi’s private account, suggested that they explore shutting down the accounts. Cioffi’s response was a suggestion to meet in private to discuss the concerns, according to the Journal.
Still, four days after the “toast” e-mail, Tannin told fund investors that he was “quite comfortable” with their holdings, according to the Journal. Cioffi echoed Tannin’s sentiment when talking with his investors.
from Bloomberg U.S. prosecutors are focusing on an e-mail sent by the two suggesting that their funds were headed for trouble, four days before they told investors they were comfortable with their holdings..
will people never learn about the insideous nature of email..
I noticed the visa I have, and rarely use, has dropped my rate from 12.5% to 11.9 to 10.5 to 9.5 to 8.9 over the last 5 months. Wonder if they’re pursuing low risk customers with declining rates to tempt them to use their cards. In all the years I’ve never had a cc that lowered the rate without my calling first.
“Wonder if they’re pursuing low risk customers with declining rates to tempt them to use their cards.”
That would be my bet. The credit card industry is geared up to handle credit card users; Without cc users they go out of business.
But CC receivables are hard to pass off to suckers downstream via CDOs because the CDO market is frozen, thus the CC industry, because they have to keep these receiveables, has suddenly gotten religion and actually care if their customers are solvent.
So the marketing focus goes to the customers offering the least amout of risk.
I’m not sure what my credit line is on my card, but it is a huge multiple of the amount I ever have on it, since it gets paid off automatically out of checking every month. I did not request it.
Now let’s say you have a customer who has used the card the same way for 20 years. Why would he suddenly borrow $20K or so? No good reason. So why the massive credit line?
It does make sense if you think there might be a possibility somebody like you will suddenly need a massive credit line. Remember, it doesn’t cost the credit card folks a dime to extend your credit line. Not a dime. But there’s always the remote chance that you, or somebody like you, will need to tap this line. These are the folks the CC companies are targeting.
“People turning to pedal power as a way to deal with today’s sky-high fuel costs might want to consider buying that new bicycle sooner rather than later. Bike makers and retailers are set to pass along their rising costs to consumers with higher prices for bikes and accessories.
Bike shops in Grand Junction and nationwide are predicting their costs will increase 10 to 20 percent, with several bike shops seeing a hike in bike prices foreseeing for 2009 models.
“Pretty much everything we’re going to see for the next year, from what I understand, is going to be about 20 to 25 percent more,” said Brian Miick, owner and manager of the Bike Shop, 1060 North Ave., which carries 270 bikes at any given time. “The cost of rubber is going up, the cost of metal is going up, the cost of transporting it is going up. The catalogs that were printed and sent out in January are pretty much obsolete.”
Happy to report I got my new bike with car carrier and all I need last year when prices were low. BTW, the Specialized Cruiser is great for both on and off road, though not a serious MTB. It was only $350 when I got it, no idea what it goes for now. I got it for cruising around town or on smoother dirt roads.
So lost,
whats the status on the university job? Were you able to work out an employment package covering possibly subsidized rent or car/gas expenses?
Wouldn’t want our own “Indiana Jones” to disappear.
lol
It’s still in the works, not sure what to do, I posted below. But if I take it, I’ll still be around to plague everyone with my irrelevant comments, not to worry, I can waste time with the best of them, even when I’m “working.” LOL
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Comment by lostcontrol
2008-06-19 14:15:49
lost,
And I, at least, expect it. A little humanity never hurt anyone. There should be more human interest stories about what the bloggers are going through. The good and bad decisions (after the fact) as a result of the decisions based on their personal experiences.
Wish you and everyone the best. We will be/are shooting the curl. (I think I heard that somewhere on the beaches of So.CA.
lol
I have noticed that some bike shops in northern California have raised prices on bikes in just the last few weeks.
Up $50, $75 or $100 - depending on original price, model and type. I thought this was unusual, since around this time of year or a little later in the season, bicycle shops are typically lowering prices to move them… (though I suppose I could be mistaken with that impression).
I was a youngster at the time, but the raising of prices immediately reminded me of the late 1970’s.
It’s up to 4.89 around here now. Also saw it at 5.13 on the NY turnpike last weekend, though that shouldn’t surprise where they’ve gotcha coming and going.
Had not looked at this until now (SKF daily). Wow, lovely reverse head and shoulders at that 89-90 bottom. It has fufilled the move from that though and is at some resistance.
Hamzei folks emailed yesterday and are looking for one more shakeout of weak longs before “blast off”. That would fit with my loose thesis that there will be a rally of sorts in the summer which will be the big chance to get short.
By Ben White and Francesco Guerrera in New York and Henny Sender in Monaco
“…John Paulson, president of Paulson & Co, who made billions for himself and his investors by anticipating the subprime meltdown, said mortgage-related losses for troubled financials could be $1,300bn, compared with writedowns so far of $380bn, which suggests that shares of these institutions could fall further.
“The housing market shows no signs of stabilising and the problems will spread to other areas, including non-residential construction and consumer spending,” Mr Paulson said at a conference in Monaco. ….”
I am confused about macro-economics. It does not make any sense how the world’s standard of living can be raised. I have heard a number of potiential solutions to America’s problems as follows:
1. Greater GDP due to efficiency(less labor imput per dollar of output)
2. Education will propel the world to a higher standard of living.
I may be spit-balling here, but these solutions work on an individual level(micro level) in that you can command a greater income than another, but it makes no sense in a closed system (global). It appears to be a “relative” issue and not absolute.
With regard to the issue of efficiency of production (labor vs. output) This also appears to be relative from an individual standpoint. Theoretically, with ever increasing efficiency, no one would be needed to work, because all production would be automated. So who will have the income to purchase these items.
Sorry to drop these heavy issues in your laps, but it appears that these questions are not being asked and answered.
The Solow growth model claims that economic growth is produced either exclusively by efficiency improvement or capital accumulation. Note: efficiency is considered as impacting all factors of production, not just labor.
“Theoretically, with ever increasing efficiency, no one would be needed to work, because all production would be automated. So who will have the income to purchase these items.”
In this theoretical scenario in which labor has been entirely eliminated, all income will be earned by returns on capital, land, and any other factor of production. In other words, the return on capital from production provides the income necessary to purchase the goods produced.
So Walt526,
so what happens to the labors (95% of the population)? Will 5% of the population be willing to buy 100% of the goods and services produced by a totally automated production system? By the way, what happens to the remaining 95%?
Do the govt ( I persume) take the stock and distribute among all the population so that they can purchase goods and servides?
Can they sell their shares or will they have an absolute right like life and liberty to keep those shares with out selling them?
I suspect all difficult questions, however I do not think that it is not to early to start asking the questions.
Just a stupid person “full of questions with no answers”.
“It does not make any sense how the world’s standard of living can be raised.”
How many hours a day did your great grandparents spend out in the fields, tending their crops and flocks of livestock?
How many hours a day do you spend doing the same? How about your neighbors, or the average American?
And if you had the choice, would you rather live your current lifestyle, high fuel prices and all, or revert to a world where many folks worked from 4am straight through the evening to put food on the table (my grandparents included)?
Now as to whether the world’s standard of living can be raised, a tricky measurement problem arises, which is how do you know when the world’s standard of living has risen as a whole? For instance, the world’s economic base is currently supporting somewhere north of 6bn people, but the income disparity is huge, with many of these folks living in abysmal poverty and a few with more money than they have time to spend. Is this a wealthier world than that of two-hundred years ago, when the population was much smaller and labor hour requirements for basic subsistence needs much higher on average even in relatively wealthy countries, but nature’s bounty was far less overstretched by a burgeoning population?
IMHO - and really mean my humble opinion - XM is a dead industry. There is better technology available that does more than XM/Sirius ever could do.
The premise of success in XM is the subscription of dollars/mo when many cities are going wireless internet and there are more available channels, music and news on the internet. The technology is available.
The same is true for over air radio/tv broadcasts. obsolete.
This does not mean they will not make money, it just has little growth prospects.
it appears as though Relation Investors is going back in with aggressive buying when its under 8.50. Whitworth was the DC point man for Pickens back in the 80’s….sits on the board of HD,Sprint, and SOV.
The risk is SOVs home loans. $19B is a lot of money to burn through. It is trading at 70% of book (maybe), book value in a falling market falls. Look at penn Central in the ’70s. The stock was trading at 10% of book and they went through book in less than 6 months.
There is no bank in the US that I would have stock ownership. There are probably some good banks. It is not worth my time and efforts to weed through the drek, when there are more profitable ways to make money.
US financial institutions are not going to be making moneys for 5 years - at the earliest. And they will never make moneys like they did from 2002 -2007 (Until some mope comes up with a new CDO type of scam).
Wall Street Lobbies to Protect Speculative Oil Trades
“…In a pair of lengthy and sometimes testy closed-door sessions in the Senate last week, executives from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, two of Wall Street’s largest investment banks, made the case that their multibillion-dollar investments in energy contracts have not led to higher oil prices. Rather, they told Democratic staff members of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee that the trades allow international markets to operate efficiently and that the run-up in oil prices results not from speculation but from actual imbalances of supply and demand.
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But the executives were met with skepticism and occasional hostility. “Spare us your lecture about supply and demand,” one of the Democratic aides said, abruptly cutting off one of the executives, according to a staff member in the room. …”
“…I believe the federal government should create a firewall to prevent too great a fall in housing prices. It is important to go beyond the legislation that is about to be enacted by the Senate, which would help some homeowners who have negative equity but would not do anything to forestall the growth of this problem. This can best be done through a program of mortgage replacement loans. …”
They can put what ever floor they want under the price of houses, but with the tightning of credit criteria, the fact that home prices will not always go up and stagent wages will result in no one willing or able to purchase a home.
So we end up with a frozen market. Nothing moves/trades.
Just got to love it! All these interests that want to maintain this housing market price level will in the end be cutting their own throats.
No sale of homes, then no sales commission to agents, no fees to the brokers, no taxes to the state. Mortgage holders end up walking away. jingle keys.
Faster,
I am getting an uneasy feeling of impending doom! I am starting to hear from what HBBers and now alternate news sources (and RBS) talking about a total collapse of the economic system. I guess this is where the “ground moves under your feet” and the world has changed?
For us in SO. CA, this is an analogy that we understand.
not/lol
Fast,
I really get nervous when the FED/TREASURY wants additional powers for something that they tells us will not happen(serious investment bank failures).
“Paulson Calls for Clarifying Ways to Shut Down Investment Banks
By Rebecca Christie
Enlarge Image/Details
June 19 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson joined Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair in calling for bank regulators to have clear procedures for dealing with a failing investment bank.”
I do not know where they could get the money, Faster. All I am saying is that it wouldn’t make any difference in the future for two reasons. The homeowner will not over commit on mortgages/prices because they the homes are not guaranteed to increase in value and the investors will not invest, because of the fraud in the mortgages.
just an opinion.
Hmmm. maybe you have a point there… It was a very mild 70 degrees for this morning’s walk which is pretty cool around here. The number of homes on the market (both with signage and surreptiously) has increased to 19 in the immediate local area with several just “empty”.
It really appears that someone on high decided to put a PPT floor in place at DJIA=12K around the beginning of 2007. Not sure how one would check on this possibility (tinfoil hat is very tingly today!)…
Txc: Any advice to a n00b taking an absolute beating on SIRI today (and in general)? I mean, the obvious advice is “make sure to have sold your stock before this happens”. But seeing as I failed to heed that advice fast enough… double down? Pitch it now and take the beating? Wait for it to recover a few points and then pitch it?
I’m long 50K shares at 2 bucks (Blano can confirm that, emailed him when I did it a few minutes ago). IMO this crappage is so they can all unwind their arbitrages and cover shorts.
This is NOT advice to buy the stock. I love buying train wrecks like this.
More than in any country the economics and the politics are fully intertwined in America. The Housing Bubble provides one of the best glimpses into both and well as into the population and the leaders. (Conditions of all human institutions say a lot about the population and the leaders at any given time).
“More than in any country the economics and the politics are fully intertwined in America.”
i have absolutely no idea.. hmm.. more than in any other country? Perhaps you’d be kind enough to name just one “other country”, and we’ll kick it around a little…
–
We have been at it longer. One can say that it is borrowed from the UK. Our businessmen, especially bankers, have perfected the art of controlling the govt via democracy (or public voting) for their own benefits and at the expense of the rest.
Most of the world has copied our system, some economic, some political, and some both. No? Where did the recent Housing Bubble, fueled primarily by debt, originate?
the countries that immediately came to mind when you suggested that were China.. then Japan.. then Mexico.. all of who’s politicians/govts have an iron grip on their respective economies. So, I had to wonder where you were headed.
Sure, they copied us and i’ll go so far to say that we may be the source of a few evils spread thoughout the world.
Exporting our highly addictive form of capitalism to immature and vulnerable economies is often a lesson in tough-love.. but they do learn fast from their mistakes and are the better for it in the long run, even if they’re not too happy about it.
Granted the RE bubble is a terrible thing, and it originated here.. The fallout spread across the world. And granted the PTB didn’t see it coming.
But from my perspective, focusing blame on any one group at least partially absolves some other group while, imo, all are equally guilty.
I try to be even handed in judging our govt because i take my share of responsibility for what the govt does. Even with all it’s faults I believe it’s a govt of the people, and i am of that people.
–
Look, the real “revolution” in England, during 1600s, was the overthrow of the monarchy by the moneybags of London. Their tool was to make Parliament supreme and they knew that they would be able to control the elections with money. How little has changed!
The rise of the modern money power at large scale is very English in origin and we are the latest and the greatest of that process. Before that it was limited to city-states. In terms of progress, on per capita basis, city-states were far superior. America needs to be broken up into 1,000 small states, with a joint defense only treaty, for real efficiency and progress. What we is an empire and empires are not the best for the population at large (they are great for the powerful).
Jas
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-06-19 10:31:14
We’ve alreadyt tried separate states.. we’ve tried a union. If there’s a better way, it must be something different.
You can’t look back to the govt corruption which supported robber barons and corporations of the late 19th century and tell me things havent gotten any better.. things got a lot better.. things are changing, slowly but surely. They might even get good someday.
Whoever has wealth will always rule. Spread the wealth evenly to the peons and it’ll soon end up in the hands of a few, no matter what system of govt or economy. That’s the way life is.
So, we gotta be realistic, creative and have foresight if a blueprint for the next govt is to have the slightest chance of being better than the current one. It’s not as simple as throwing the bums out and installing new bums, or chopping large corruption into smaller pieces.
BAC+CFC: Can Ken Lewis Rescue the Kobayashi Maru?
June 19, 2008
“We are heads down working on a new index of credit conditions in the US banking industry, but we had to come up for air to update our views on the pending merger of Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC). Why? Because we believe that the CFC transaction is shaping up to be a serious risk not only to CFC bondholders, but to BAC, its shareholders and CEO Ken Lewis. …
If BAC pays a full price for assets transferred from Red Oak, it arguably will need to take an immediate write-down of these assets, perhaps as much as 50% of the amount paid for each. This could mean a $10-15 billion loss for BAC in Q3, a truly ugly situation for BAC’s shareholders and one that will come at precisely the time when the bank may be in the market trying to raise new equity. And this immediate $10-15 billion loss estimate does even start to factor in the cost to BAC shareholders of settling the litigation and other unliquidated claims. Our guess as to the total cost to BAC for CFC? Stick a zero on the $4 billion cost of buying the CFC equity and you may a little high, but not by much. …”
Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. plans to call today for the Federal Reserve to be given new, explicit powers to intervene in the workings of Wall Street firms to protect the financial system, adapting his vision of how the financial world should be regulated to reflect the lessons of the collapse of Bear Stearns.
“Our nation has come to expect the Federal Reserve to step in to avert events that pose unacceptable systemic risk,” Paulson plans to say in a speech today, according to prepared remarks obtained by The Washington Post. But the central bank “has neither the clear statutory authority nor the mandate to anticipate and deal with risks across our entire financial system.”
The Fed has done such a great job of creatingprotecting us from financial crises over the past quarter century, that certainly a bigger, badder Fed will be even better for America.
China weathering global slump better than expected, World Bank says as it raises GDP forecast
SHANGHAI, China (AP) — China’s economy is weathering the global slowdown better than expected, the World Bank said Thursday as it raised its growth forecast for the Asian giant to 9.8 percent from 9.4 percent.
The World Bank cited the country’s strong domestic demand and sustained competitiveness in exports as key strengths….”
This is fact, conjectures that China and Asia are going to slow down as a result of the US slowdown are completely unsubstantiated. It is a world wide party. If we wish to come, we have to get used to the cost of admission - $125+/bbl of oil.
–
Thinking during the bubbles is always the same — it will keep going because it is based on fundamentals. China reminds me of late 1920s America.
The question for the Chinese and the Indian economies to enter recession is WHEN (2009?) and not IF. People can’t identify speculative booms (they think that it is secular) and are unable (unwilling!) to foresee the unavoidable bust. When China and India are in recession the US will enter depression. Synchronized bust! What fuels the booms is easy money. And busts are just waiting in the wings.
Er — isn’t the Shanghai stock market off somefing like 50 pct from its peak within the past year? And isn’t the stock market a leading economic indicator for the real economy?
When we first started debating which type of place would be hit harder by the housing bust a couple of years ago, we didn’t count of $4.00 gasoline. Some probably thought an urban crime/riot wave was more likely.
There could be a lot of surprises coming in these United States.
Beware of gentrification, my son!
The polarization that bites, the displacement claws that catch!
Beware the Freeter bird, and shun
The frumious Bourgeoisnatch!”
The Rodney King Riots had more to do with economics, and to a lesser extent gentrification, then a black man being beaten by 4 white men. The gentrification process will occur in the cities but the displaced lower and middle income types will make you pay dearly for it, each in their own special way.
As I’ve said dozens of times, this isn’t over until a city burns.
WASHINGTON — - A nonpartisan government watchdog group Wednesday listed U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd as the Senate’s No. 1 recipient of campaign contributions from Countrywide Financial Corp. in the last two decades.
The Center for Responsive Politics examined the mortgage lender’s relationship with members of Congress after revelations that Countrywide Financial Corp.’s CEO ran a program to give beneficial rates and discounts on mortgages to prominent people such as Dodd.
Though Dodd was the Senate’s leading recipient of campaign contributions from Countrywide’s political-action committee, the overall career amount of $25,000 is very small when compared with the senator’s leading contributors. For instance, his career contributions from Citigroup Inc. total $439,094. The political research center, which posted the report on its website at OpenSecrets.org, also said Dodd had received $15,000 from Countrywide for his presidential campaign.
Give Senator Christopher Dodd credit for nerve. On Tuesday, the very day he finally admitted knowing that Countrywide Financial regarded him as a “special” customer, the Connecticut Democrat also announced that he was bringing to the Senate floor a housing bailout sure to help lenders like Countrywide.
How much will Countrywide benefit from Mr. Dodd’s rescue? The Senator’s plan allows mortgage lenders to dump up to $300 billion of their worst loans on to taxpayers via a new Federal Housing Administration refinancing program, provided the lenders are willing to accept 87% of current market value. The program will be most attractive to lenders and investors holding subprime and slightly-less-risky Alt-A loans made during the height of the housing bubble in 2006 and 2007.
As the market leader during that period, Countrywide originated $167 billion of such loans, more than 11% of the nationwide total, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. Analyst Fred Cannon of Keefe, Bruyette and Woods estimates that the company is still holding more than $30 billion in subprime and Alt-A loans on its books, based on the company’s most recent quarterly financials.
Dodd admits to VIP loan club
By Chris Bryant and James Politi
Published: June 17 2008 23:45 | Last updated: June 17 2008 23:45
A senior Democratic senator on Tuesday admitted he was one of a number of Washington officials who were made members of a VIP programme by a leading mortgage provider but denied he knew this would secure him preferential treatment.
Chris Dodd, the Democratic chairman of the Senate banking committee, said he had not asked what Countrywide Financial’s VIP offer entailed and insisted he had not been told that he would receive favourable loan terms.
Fresh details of the mortgage affair emerged as Mr Dodd reached agreement with Richard Shelby, the banking committee’s senior Republican, on the final details of housing legislation designed to stem a tide of home foreclosures.
David Rosenberg:
“If people aren’t driving more what are they doing more of? How about shoplifting — talk about a highly cyclical activity. See page 1B of the USA Today for more on this latest trend — “More Consumers, Workers, Shoplift as Economy Slows”. Now how deflationary is that? The price for these folks is zero (unless of course they are chased down by a police cruiser who will then charge them a gasoline fee — as per yesterday’s story). The USA Today article cites a National Retail Federation survey finding that 85% of merchants say they are being victimized by shoplifting this year, which is up from 79% last year.”
Loveland??? Quiet pretty Loveland? I recall driving through there on the highway one very early snowy December morning and seeing a black bear, then later sliding all the way through a big intersection with nary another car in sight (good thing).
Actually, the bear wasn’t in December, that was another trip. I commuted from Ft. Collins to Boulder my first semester of grad school, took 287, hate the freeway, not as scenic.
That was the week I quit sniffing glue that I saw the bear.
Question: would a job with a respected museum that’s affiliated with a university be highly subject to recessionary problems? It doesn’t have a large staff and my position would be fairly necessary. Have to decide on this thing and am not sure what to do, any thoughts much appreciated.
Cataloging, restoration, or program development? Is the program soft money driven or does the museum get hard money from the campus? You also need to figure out how they handle grad students and post docs, especially post docs.
Gwyn, was hoping you would respond, as you’re the pro. Lots of public representation, PR, liaison, education. And it’s hard money straight from the Univ. coffers, they’re very proud of their museum.
Bear in mind I’m a pessimist’s pessimist. But during downturns like this, it’s soft money that does better. It seems counter intuitive but it’s true. Whether the school is public or private also makes a big difference. If you are getting into program dev at a private school, there may be opportunity but you will have to earn it. With great rewards also come great risks. It’s like working for Disney. You are good for 5 yrs then you are used up. Program dev is safer at a public.
It’s easier to cut backroom positions. Those are less visible to the all-knowing, “they who must be obeyed” alumni with checkbooks. Hard money positions are the most tenuous whether public or private. If things get tight, restoration work grinds to a halt. The backroom shop becomes a glorified crating operation. They can get interns and grad students to do that which in turn soothes the parents; always helpful when they begin raising fees. I’ve been replaced by a donor’s neice who just graduated - not fun.
There is a reason why I never went on to UoD for my PhD. I don’t have the nerves for it. I prefer being an over-educated slacker. Saves me a fortune on Zantac and therapy.
Now that said, you could work for them and nothing will happen. Or you could get a nice severence package after some employer paid insurance and sick leave.
If you are currently unemployed, I’d take it. You’ll never be bored at a museum. If nothing else, the politics will keep you awake. They make local school board elections look tame. Take notes and write a book about your experiences - you’ll make a fortune.
I’m a consultant in projects usually having to do with oil/gas powerline/gasline type operations, which I hate. I mean, I love the work but hate the thought that they’re going to mess up everything after I give the go-ahead. I survey it, write up the report and tell them if there’s anything of significance. I also am cataloging rock art with a grant I got.
It’s kind of part-time, which gives me free time, which I like, so a full-time onit job will be culture shock for me, but I’m resourceful, I’ll figure out how to slack off, have done it successfully before.
Thanks for your insights, am meeting with the Director and will ask him some good Qs, based on your post, thanks again.
And yeah, I’ll probably take it, cause now that I’ve fulfilled one of my top-three goals* (being a squatter), I need to move forward.
*hopping a freight
*camping out in a dino museum, ghostbusting T-Rexes
I could tell you what to do, but then I would have to shoot you!
My advice is to not to give advice. Look at your financial situation, your goals, opportunities and your alternatives and draw your own conclusions. You appear to be a strong person and can deal with the ups and downs, based on your life story so far on this blog.
Do not worry about making misstates. We all do, you have and you will continue to do so. Just remember, no one gets out of this life error free!
Just one person’s opinion who has bounced up and down with good decisions and bad.
Am I the only one who smells a rat like I did with:
1) Dotcom - “earnings don’t matter, screw P/Es, new model, etc…”
2) Enron - the brownouts in CA. I lived in CA at the time and all of the sudden there was not enough power? Market manipulation.
3) Real Estate - well, we’ve been discussing it here for 4 years now.
I hear the arguments of China and India ramping up demand, but c’mon. The price of a barrel of oil must have about a 60-75% pure speculative component to it at this point. It wreaks of 2005 Real Estate.
Prices are what they are. “Speculators” have to buy and sell the same oil at the same price as everyone else. They aren’t buying and selling oil in some kind of separate “speculators only” market.
True, but specuvestors could sit on houses creating an artificial shortage. Plus ninja loans created an artificial demand for them. Is there artificial demand for oil?
Point taken, but demand for oil is essentially constant and supply is not like planting corn or throwing up a house. I don’t think many people would consider corn prices a speculative bubble, although they have risen even more than houses or oil. Agree price of oil will come down eventually, as supply and substitutes increase, but I don’t see current price as a bubble in the same way housing is/was. Easily as many differences as similarities between housing and oil markets.
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Comment by GrittyToasterWaffleGuy
2008-06-19 10:35:43
Demand for oil is only constant until it isn’t constant anymore. You don’t suppose that a billion Chinese might curtail their demand slightly in response to a price increase, do you?
Comment by In Colorado
2008-06-19 12:29:44
On a per capita basis, yes. But since 10,000,000 folks in China will be buying a new car (probably their first car) then its probably safe to assume that aggregate demand in China will continue to rise.
The futures expire monthly. At any given time, if there was oil available, the OPEC members could slam the futures.
Where is the oil? Oil futures expiration this week and the price is down $4, BFD.
Maybe it is a bubble, everybody calls it a bubble, so it must be a bubble. Very rarely is there a bubble and the world of traders and, news reporters and mopes call it a bubble. How often has that happened?
Blame speculators, but there are just as many short as there are long.
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Comment by shuzilla
2008-06-19 17:31:43
hoz, is it possible for a major oil producer, such as the Saudis, to utilize its huge profit margin to buy a market-significant amount of oil futures through shill buyers while never extracting that oil from the ground? Who keeps track; who is the “controling government authority”? Such a move would burn the supply-demand candle at both ends, as not only would demand appear greater but remaining supply would be under-estimated. I think producers are aware that gas prices have room to go much higher before reaching the point where demand falls off precipitously and profit levels off.
Where do Saudis put their wealth, and how will that change with their profits doubling? There’s not a whole lot of other safe places to invest those billions, yet holding the cash is a loosing proposition.
Comment by hoz
2008-06-19 22:06:45
The OPEC member nations have not in the past bought futures in Oil. OIl was $17.77/bbl in 2001. For OPEC, that was a buying time.
I am not of any affiliation with any OPEC states. But if I were looking for max profit, it would be generated by keeping demand high and prices stable.
Demand is high, prices are not stable. Obviously OPEC has no oil to sell.
2) Neither China nor India hit industrialization yet - whoever thinks $150/barrel is high certainly gets some highly potent drugs - even with dollar stable oil is going to be heading higher and higher and higher as more and more people in China and India discover something other than mud huts.
West needs to pull its head out of its ass and realize that the China and India snowball started rolling from the top of the mountain and it is gaining speed. As west can’t stop this snowball, West must must adjust to the reality, which includes starting to drill for oil everywhere today, building nuclear power plants -today- so in 10 years we actually have additional oil/energy.
reality, which includes starting to drill for oil everywhere today, building nuclear power plants -today- so in 10 years we actually have additional oil/energy. that’s not a reality, that’s wishful thinking. Expanded oil drilling today just might increase supply a little in 10 years, but there is no way on earth to build nuclear power plants TODAY. Maybe in 20 years new nukes will provide something useful, but won’t TODAY. The intervening years will be extremely painful.
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Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 13:58:33
Huh? Even -France- gets tons of its power from nuclear energy. This 2008, not 1958.
Early weekend topic proposal: Would the Senate’s “Housing Rescue” package primarily benefit homeowners, lenders or Senators’ future campaign contributions?
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate began considering a broad housing package Thursday after clearing away conservative GOP objections, paving the way for votes this week on the election-year foreclosure rescue that could help hundreds of thousands of struggling homeowners.
House and Senate Republicans voiced reservations about the bill in light of allegations that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., one of its architects, and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., got cut-rate home loans through a VIP program at Countrywide Financial Corp., a leading subprime lender at the center of the mortgage meltdown.
But Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., dropped a threat to block the measure. Democrats and Republicans consider the legislation a political imperative amid rising foreclosures and growing public anxiety about the sagging economy.
“We have a responsibility to respond to the plight of the American family, and to their pessimism, and to renew their confidence in the promise of the American dream,” Dodd said.
Sen. Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the senior Banking Republican who exacted large concessions from Dodd to win bipartisan backing for the measure, said acting on it was a chance to show that Congress could move on a pressing issue.
“The American people expect us to provide effective and timely solutions the best we can,” Shelby said.
(Recasts with letter details; Reid, McConnell, Manley comments; background)
By Kevin Drawbaugh
WASHINGTON, June 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate will begin debate on a major housing market rescue bill on Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on Wednesday, spurning calls for delay by Republicans who cited concerns about a controversy involving two Democrats and a mortgage lender.
In a letter that a Reid aide called “disgraceful,” nine Republican senators asked Reid, a Nevada Democrat, to delay consideration of the housing legislation, which advocates say could save thousands of homeowners from foreclosure.
The Republicans said they wanted time to study the bill and they were “concerned with recent allegations” related to Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), a lender under federal investigation over its role in the U.S. mortgage crisis.
I don’t know which is the bigger buffoon, Reid or Pelosi. Let us all pray that the electorate restores some balance to the governing bodies in November.
I saw a on line poll somewhere about Fed funds rate. It was funny to see the question.
Is the rate too high, too low or just right (very goldielocks)?
That is the social guess work the Fed is going through.
Now, the Fed is owned by the member banks. If we decide its time for the treasury to hold dirrect auctions of treasuries we can do away with the whole thing.
So, what happens with the Fed assets?
Anyhow, I think the entire structure might be in trouble as they hold on to more and more bad loans. Depending on who is in the Treasury they could increase the reserve requirements and really slow things down and put the Fed out of its misery.
The big time gamblers are on Wall Street and they are gambling with your money, your pensions, and your livelihoods.
…
The Wall Street Boys, like all charlatans, develop words and phrases to dress up their megagambling practices. They say they are trying to avoid a “crisis of confidence” when these proclaimed capitalists go to Uncle Sam for a socialistic bailout. That only increases the “moral hazard” — another euphemism — and sets the stage for another round of reckless Wall Street Goliaths being deemed “too big to fail”.
By LARA JAKES JORDAN, Associated Press Writer
34 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - More than 400 real estate industry players have been indicted since March — including dozens over the last two days — in a Justice Department crackdown on incidents of mortgage fraud nationwide that have contributed to the country’s housing crisis.
The FBI put the losses to homeowners and other borrowers who were victims in the schemes at over $1 billion.”
Am I imagining this, or did Ben post a story a couple of years ago about a homeless guy qualifying for mortgage loans and buying houses? Perhaps it is presumptuous of me to assume he was unemployed.
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Lawrence Angelilli, senior vice president of finance at Centex Corp., said the “wild card everyone is waiting to see” in the housing market is if the U.S. slips into a true economic recession. “No one who was unemployed ever bought a house,” the executive said during a webcast on Thursday at the Bank of America 2008 Home Builders Conference in New York.
Operation malicious mortgage:
Sounds like we have a new phrase.
Those poor specuvestors. Infestors.
Anyway, I get to put my megaphone in storage today.
“The Justice Department also is expected to ask Congress for more money to help combat mortgage fraud as part of a larger funding request to curb white collar crime and violent crime.”
But wait… there’s more: (Hey Ben, care to anything to this list?) …getting a beer now…lol
“…The most common type of mortgage fraud was misstatement of income or assets, followed by forged documents, inflated appraisals and misrepresentation of a buyer’s intent to occupy a property as a primary residence.”
The most common type of mortgage fraud was misstatement of income or assets, followed by forged documents, inflated appraisals and misrepresentation of a buyer’s intent to occupy a property as a primary residence.
_______________________________________________________
I know a doc who did just that with 3 SFRs. I told him (after a _few_ beers) that it was fraud. His opinion and my reaction were along the lines of Bessie Braddock and Winston Churchill.
I wonder if the FBI or IRS will give me a reward (a la Paladin) - then maybe I can use it to help out my cousin who needs 30K!
Hwy, Ouro’s loaning money, no interest! (Don’t kill me, Ouro, it’s a joke…)
I wonder if the doc’s reaction was similar to my landlady’s when I told her yesterday that taking all the fixtures from the house she has now given back to the bank was illegal. She replied, “I gave them all away, I didn’t gain anything from it.”
I am stupid and have in 40 years, not been around such a high powered crowd, but was that a repartee, I just witnessed.
lol
ps: I hate you all for making me to go to the dictionary to look up the spelling and the meaning of words that have not been said in my presence in 40 years.
lol
“Since March 1, 406 people have been arrested in the sting dubbed “Operation Malicious Mortgage” that saw 144 cases across the country. Sixty people were arrested on Wednesday alone, including in Chicago, Miami, Houston and a dozen other regions policed by the FBI.”
Just the the teeny tiny tip of the humongous mortgage scam iceberg, but it goes to show once again that our government is focusing on public perceptions. Besides the two Bear Stearn’s crooks, how many government/corporate/financial big shots do you think will serve time for their part in all this? I’m guessing when all is said and done, we can count them on one hand. It’s so much easier to pop the small/mid-level appraisers/brokers/lenders than go after the big boys who provide campaign contributions and expense account lunches for their “friends”.
WooHoo!!! Finally a bit of justice. I wonder if any of Paladin’s watch list was in there, or Casey?
Now, if we can just make the Mortgage bankers and brokers all be personally liable to their stakeholders for any failed mortgages they wrote without doing any due diligence to find out if the borrower actually had a chance of paying off the loan.
(A rose by any other name is still a rose. A pile of steaming dung by any other name still smells like a pile of steaming dung.)
Some excerpts from the article:
“In January, astoria financial corp. told investors that its pile of nonperforming loans had grown to about $106 million as of the end of last year. Three months later, the thrift holding company said the number was just $68 million.
“How did Astoria do it? By changing its internal policy on when mortgages are classified on its books as troubled. The Lake Success, N.Y., company now counts home loans as non-performing when the borrower misses at least three payments, instead of two.”
The article then moves on to discuss Wells Fargo. Wells used to wait 120 days after a borrower stopped making payments before taking a charge against earnings; Now, as of April 1 (April Fool’s Day, BTW) it waits 180 days.
BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc., “transferred about $100 million of troubled commercial-real estate loans into a new subsidiary.
“That essentially erased the loans from BankAtlantic’s retail-banking unit. Since that unit is federally regulated, BankAtlantic eventually might have faced regularity action if it didn’t substantially beef up the unit’s capital and reserve levels to cover the bad loans.
“Because the Bankatlantic subsidiary that holds the bad loans isn’t regulated, it doesn’t face the same capital requirements. But the new structure won’t insulate the parent company’s - or shareholders - from losses if borrowers default on the loans, analysts said.”
BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc., “transferred about $100 million of troubled commercial-real estate loans into a new subsidiary.”
Isn’t that a move STRAIGHT out of the Enron playbook? Hell, even that movie “Fun with Dick and Jane” had the company Jim Carrey’s character worked for doing the very same thing.
And these guys are pulling this for real? Steaming pile of dung indeed.
It’s funny, soon they’ll have to write off all the interest they’ve been booking as revenue on option loans without actually getting paid - more than a few of these and the fact that they were insolvent all along will become very plain.
You can bet your butt that the securities lawyers are gearing up for this already. I certainly would be if I’d accepted that offer at Milberg.
The latest round of World Trade Organization negotiations was launched in 2001 in Doha, Qatar. The goal was to cut subsidies in rich nations and tariffs in poor nations, allowing the most efficient producers — be they in Iowa or Cordoba, Argentina — to sell to the world. Supporters say the economic rationale still holds.
This reminds me of another highly educated plan to outsource US factory labor to the most efficient cost areas and then the US workers can all be retrained to somthing much more efficient for the country, like Mortgage brokers.
well lets see how the food trade idea is working out…
“Trade as the route to food security, that idea is on the ropes,” said Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “If the guy who is selling it doesn’t want to sell it overseas, then the guy at the other end is terribly exposed.”
Grain exporters such as Argentina and Vietnam have restricted shipments, driving global prices higher and leaving nations that depend on imports searching for adequate supplies.
“The idea of trade liberalization was that you could count on global markets, but they’re not proving reliable,” said David Orden, a fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington.
Globalization is a crock! International trade can be manipulated for various reasons
1. With regard to food and energy, own population comes first (for political stability).
2. Artifical transportation costs (subsidized world trade by cheap oil for transportation of goods).
3. Political highjacking (political pressure and not profits are the primary goal (read oil and gas from Russa to Eastern Europe).
4. Massive inflows and outflows of capital (chasing maximum profits).
5. Hidding a failing economy by means of exporting of jobs to lower waged companies.
Free trade (globalism) like free mortgages (homes) have been and continues to be the cause of our problems. This entire house of cards have, imho, been subidized by the printing of money (inflation) and by debt to future generations for the benefit of the current recipients throughout the world. That is why, if there is going to be a global collapse, structural cracks are occurring and know one knows how bad it will become.
Where goes from here no one is saying or knows!
This is like the E ride at Disney!
Globalization is a crock! International trade can be manipulated for various reasons
1. With regard to food and energy, own population comes first (for political stability).
Wow. What a concept! There are countries that think food and energy costs at home are more important than the mating habits of turtles? Right, those would be the countries to have a common sense not to the certifiably insane people that believe this planet would be better if humans just did not exist. Welcome to competition. While the US is willing to sell well-being of its own population for the well-being of the turtles, some other countries aren’t.
2. Artifical transportation costs (subsidized world trade by cheap oil for transportation of goods).
And that’s bad why? Oh the audacity of people in New York wanting to have access to summer vegetables in January!
3. Political highjacking (political pressure and not profits are the primary goal (read oil and gas from Russa to Eastern Europe).
Those Evil Russians. Who the hell they think they are? They are supposed to be playing by the books that we want us to play! Oh wait…. They are the ones that wrote the books we want to play by… How dare they scrap them now!?
4. Massive inflows and outflows of capital (chasing maximum profits).
Flow of capital is good. Look at Africa - continent that never experienced massive inflow or outflow of capital chasing profits. Strangely, we dont see anti-globalization people wanting to live there - though they sure like to visit.
5. Hidding a failing economy by means of exporting of jobs to lower waged companies.
The job is worth only what someone anywhere is willing to do it for. It is not worth a penny more. When it was expensive to travel 20 miles it made sense for a blacksmith to be located in every village.
The moment it became cheaper to ship something to be fixed half way around the world and back than hire someone at $90/hour, $90/hour jobs disappeared.
No one is preventing you from paying $90/hour to your servers at a restaurant – just add this to the tip. Your car mechanic won’t mind if you pay him $90/hour even though he is charging you only $60/hour. Blaming globalization on your unwillingness to pay more than the product/service is worth is just silly.
Evil Capitalist,
So I caught your interest in my comments. So, Is everything working out for you?
Can you really argue that it is beneficial for the public of the US to pay for the current standard of living (lets see, we have taxes, jails, health insurance, legal services, food and shelter for illegals).
I guess you are happy to pay these while the jobs that supported the middle class went overseas for a substantial cut?
I don’t know sh*t, but all we have been doing as a people is spending money today to maintain are current life style (borrowing from the future), while all those good paying jobs that should be paying for these free handouts to political refogrees goes unpaid. So, lets issue bonds, debt on future tax payers. This only works if things get better. Will they? If they don”t, someone has one h*ll of a bill to pay.
Look it, nothing personal. This is not an ego attack. I may be wrong, but I do not thing so.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-06-19 14:38:35
Hi lostcontrol,
Sorry, it probably came across that I was attacking you personally, but really i was just attacking the position. Hopefully, you are not offended.
Can you really argue that it is beneficial for the public of the US to pay for the current standard of living (lets see, we have taxes, jails, health insurance, legal services, food and shelter for illegals).
Unfortunately, it is irrelevant what I think about it - what is relevant is that the US population right now thinks it is benefitial to have higher taxes, jails, health care, etc for illegal immigrants so the US population can have cheaper farm good, cheaper restaurant service etc. If that was not the case the US population would have resolved the problem with illegal immigration long time ago. It is a simple fact that should the US population not like this enough, this problem will be solved - we just did not reach the pain level when the solution is needed.
Now if you ask me about it I think we need to scrap out entire immigration policy - the policy is insane. Those that scream “there are no jobs that americans dont want to do” chose not to see that there are tons of jobs that Americans of today do not want to do (let me call them right). Right refuses to acknowledge that the laws of supply and demand at price X apply not just to gasoline but also to labor. Right does not want to acknowledge that the same market that establishes the price of $12/h for assemblyman on a non-union plan in Alabama established that the tomato-picker is worth $4/h hour. Me and you probably aren’t going to be willing to do this work for $4/hour because we think we can do something else and get paid more. By now I seriously doubt there is anyone who is in the US legally and has a right to work in this country who would be willing to work for $4/hour. It is however, a perfectly fine and perfectly acceptable job for someone who is used to do the same work for $0.10/hour in another country. To them it is a gigantic leap forward. Of course in future, their children are unlikely to be willing to do the same job for $4/h hour and someone -else- will take that job. Eventually there wont be anyone willing to do this job for $4/hour at which point we will either have no tomatoes or the price on this service will go up. Left is no better - they pretend that the illegal immigrants are special group that is being pushed around by the Evil Big Farm and hense need a special protection, special representation, special everything.. and of course special $12/hour to pick tomatoes… Well, BS! At $12/hour I’m sure there are going to be more than enough Americans wanting to do this job - but that’s ABOVE the today’s market rate and that’s exactly why we are not paying $12/hour for that.
I don’t know sh*t, but all we have been doing as a people is spending money today to maintain are current life style (borrowing from the future), while all those good paying jobs that should be paying for these free handouts to political refogrees goes unpaid. So, lets issue bonds, debt on future tax payers. This only works if things get better. Will they? If they don”t, someone has one h*ll of a bill to pay.
No argument here at all. However, that’s not what your points before were about Speaking of it… over a long time economy will purge itself from the “political handouts” as supporting a politician won’t be as profitable as not supporting one. Globalization is the vehicle that’s going to get us there… because now our politicians are in competition with Chinese politicians and Russian politicians and if there is one thing that our politicians dont do well is compete.
Comment by lostcontrol
2008-06-19 15:48:47
Evil Capitalist,
Thanks for your concern, but I am not really offended. I remember discussions like this as a college student 40 years ago.
All I can say is that my prescription of our problems may be wrong, but we do have a problem and I think your answer is misses the point.
I suspect though, that we can agree that we definitely have a problem.
I all most feel like we are debating whether the house caught fire from arson or laziness on the part of the occupant.
Differences in the world occur. I guess the question is what do we attend to do about it?
I apolgyze if this does not make any sense, since I am on my third borbon and 7-up.
I need something a little lighter - yesterday and today have been quite something.
The “Ladies Only” section of the Corpus Christi Caller Times the other day had a front page with 2 stories on how to have a more affordable wedding - not worth a link. Things like do your own soundtrack on an mp3 player, ordering flowers late (sorry, the content really did not stick…). Nothing alternative or fun.
One quote jumped out at me. Some bridal specialist stated that you couldn’t economize TOO much on a dress, since every little 10, 11, 12-year old girl, when she dreams about her wedding, she dreams of walking down the aisle and her dress…
Ladies, anyone remember dreams like that?
What I remember is dreams like being an astronomer or an Egyptologist or living in the Alps. On road trips, I dreamed of being on a motorcycle instead of with my family in the car. Stuff like that.
It’s almost like the corporations and the MSM have dictated what kids want/do/think. Plug ‘em into the machine young.
I remember being 11 years old and standing on a hill and wanting to be Lawrence of Arabia (I was reading his book, the fact that he was a he didn’t matter). In fact, not long after that I got a job working for a friend’s mom so I could buy an Arabian horse (which I eventually did).
Wedding? We’d laugh at anyone who thought like that at 11. Too weird. In fact, my best friend and I had a $50 bet paid by whoever got married first (not paid TO, but rather paid BY). LOL
Wanted to be a cop or a marine biologist at ten. NEVER wanted a big wedding. More from fear of public speaking than anything else, but even at that age I wanted a quick private ceremony and an excellent honeymoon. Love to go to weddings (long as I don’t have to say anything in front of the group) but have no desire to have my own. (Kindof like with kids. :D)
“What I remember is dreams like being an astronomer or an Egyptologist or living in the Alps. On road trips, I dreamed of being on a motorcycle instead of with my family in the car. Stuff like that.”
What I remember is those l-o-n-g road trips when dad and mom wouldn’t stop the car at Stucky’s so my sister and I could get our free pecan candy.
I can relate. My motorcycle fantasies were about wind and freedom and excitement - but I could have also stopped at every Stuckeys and every place with samples of fudge and rock candy.
And you weren’t wanting to stop at Stuckeys so you could meet the boy you would marry some day, were you?
Honolulu (CNN) — Imagine going to your local grocery store and paying over $8 for a jar of Jif peanut butter. How about $5.50 for a loaf of white bread, $6.50 for a gallon of milk or $7.19 for a half-gallon of orange juice?
These are just some of the prices we found in a recent survey of Hawaii’s supermarkets. Families there are certainly paying the price for living in paradise.
I stored four jars of PB along a with freezer full of crumpets.
The country can collapse, but ouro verde will have high tea and crumpets while the SHTF.
LOL!! Hey, did you know you can survive for 72 hours (exactly) on a jar of PB? Great survival food. Me, I could survive longer…but we won’t talk about that…
not baking here, steaming
91 degrees in Rockport 52% humidity
enough breeze that it will be just fine for a bike ride
got my sun screen on - waiting on a phone call and then I’m out of here
Cindy Mccain has the most unreal colored eyes!
Eyes the color of siamese cat eyes.
I was watching her in an interview and I never heard a word she said.
There is something going on that we are not being told. When the govt. reports arrests of fraud and other crimes from Bkrs, Mgt bankers, and assorted riff-raft, the govt. is attempting to soften the blow of whatever the bad news is. This is referred to as a preemptive action so that the govt. can show that actions are being taken before they tell you how bad it is.
This approach is the same as the illegal alien issue. In the last 6 months the govt. is getting flashy headlines showing that they are enforcing the law (8 years late, I might add) in order to move the agenda to citizenship of illegals who are here only for the economic benefits(heck, I would do the same, if I was a citizen of the various countries of Latin America).
The pigs are squealing, the dogs are running around in circles and the cats have disappeared.
Grab something solid, I believe that the ground is moving-Earthquake!!!
Real estate agent accused of fraud appears in court
The News-Press Thu, 19 Jun 2008 1:01 PM PDT
Real estate agent Samir Cabrera appeared in court today on bank and wire fraud charges that could get him $1 million in fines and 80 years in prison.
Real estate developer indicted on fraud charge
ABC 7 Gulfshore News Thu, 19 Jun 2008 8:32 AM PDT
A Fort Myers real estate broker was indicted by a federal grand jury Wednesday on wire fraud charges in connection with questionable real estate deals.
IRS agent, others charged in real estate fraud
Atlanta Journal-Constitution Wed, 18 Jun 2008 8:24 PM PDT
Five metro Atlanta residents — including an Internal Revenue Service employee — are due back in court later this month on charges they allegedly organized a real estate scheme in which they defrauded the government of tens of thousands of dollars.
Damn the torpedoes! The Democrats are going to push this Countrywide bailout measure through regardless of the appearance of scandal and conflicts of interest which have recently surfaced.
A day after conservative Republicans threatened to block the housing rescue legislation that is making its way through Congress, the Senate has begun considering the measure, the Associated Press reports.
From the Associated Press:
House and Senate Republicans voiced reservations about the bill in light of allegations that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., one of its architects, and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., got cut-rate home loans through a VIP program at Countrywide Financial Corp., a leading subprime lender at the center of the mortgage meltdown.
But Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., dropped a threat to block the measure. Democrats and Republicans consider the legislation a political imperative amid rising foreclosures and growing public anxiety about the sagging economy.
NEW YORK (Associated Press) - The indictment of two former Bear Stearns money managers on Thursday served as a reminder of how much has been lost in the nearly one year since their hedge funds imploded.
The two funds run by Matthew Tannin and Ralph Cioffi lost almost $2 billion, and launched a wave of panic on Wall Street last August that more doom was to come. Those fears proved correct, and the ensuing credit crisis crippled Bear Stearns and cost global banks nearly $300 billion to write off worthless mortgage-backed securities.
There are reports that the financial turmoil might cost banks and brokerages nearly $1 trillion from write-offs and lost business by the time it finishes. The most recent warning came Thursday from Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden, who said his bank might take substantial write-downs from mortgage securities and other assets during the second quarter.
There is no need for any loan writeoffs, just roll each month’s loan deliquencies into the next month.
Wells Fargo (for one) doesn’t take a hit against earnings until a loan goes 180 days without a payment, up from 120 days since April. Wells is on the cutting edge of banking; I think all banks should follow their lead.
In fact I have a better idea: I say a bank should never have to take a hit against earnings. Every loan that is deliquent should automatically have the amount due - plus the earned interest - rolled into the next month. That way there would be no need for a loan loss reserve because there would be no need for a loan to ever be written off.
Plus the loan portfolio will be forever growing due to the compounding of interest generated by the deliquent loans.
I get it, I am sorry Ouro
you wanted to know what “This” means,
1. This (used to indicate a person, thing, idea, state, event, time, remark, etc., as present, near, just mentioned or pointed out, supposed to be understood, or by way of emphasis): This is my coat.
and there are a dozen other definitions.
Ouro,
If I learned one thing in life, it is this:
Reduce what you say to the simpliest terms possible, because you do not know the knowledge and expertise of your audience.
Alternatively, if you do not know what you are talking about or you want to prove your superiority, (If you can’t dazzle them with your brillance),
then baffle them them with your bullsh*t
People who know their subject, unless they have an ego problem, should be able make what they are saying to any audience.
Typos a la Carte, Ever A Specialty of the House
By Jane Black
Washington Post Staff Writer
“…In my fantasy, I enter a restaurant, order and sweetly ask the waiter if I can “hold on to the menu” during dinner. Then, using a distinctive purple pen, I discreetly copy-edit the descriptions of the dishes.
Caesar, not “caeser.” Shiitake, not “shitake.” Riesling, not “reisling” (though I’d quietly applaud restaurants that spell it wrong as long as the misspelling was consistent.)
“Who was that anonymous proofreader?” chefs would whisper to one another. Correct-a-girl strikes again! Eliminating menu mistakes, one restaurant at a time. …”
This one covers a lot; Art degrees, Wine, Organics, eating out, Breakfast, health food, goofy mushrooms, purple pens, Oyster bars. Its missing dining in shorts and beer. Oh well Snob appeal for whites. LOL
I would like to make a general statement, if I may, with regards to risk management. This equally applicable in any business. My comment is from an insurance standpoint.
From my CPCU courses and the one ARM class, there are pluses and minuses to any approach.
-You can focus on one source of goods and squeeze them for your benefit, however if they have difficulties in providing the product in a timely manner, you suffer.
I guess the point I am trying to make is that concentration of a critical impute to whatever your final product is, makes you a capitive to whatever your supplier’s problem(labor strike, increased cost of production, whatever).
The way I was taught and the way insurance companies, last time I checked, they would multiple sources in the event that something goes wrong with any single supplier.
This very problem exists with our military suppliers as a result of the consolidation in the 1990s. With less sources of impute, bottle necks can occur and you are trapped.
This is what I see globalization is doing on a global scale. Heach country specializes, based on comparative advantage, in one impute.
Now lets say the US and Australia, exports significant food grains to the world market. While they are suffering from poor weather, maybe the rest of the world has an excess of those items that would produce an abundant harvest. But, since these countries have decided to maybe specialize in Fish production or Iron production, they are scr*wed when it comes to food.
I guess I am saying that situations are different parts of the world. When globalization is in place with everone using their comparative advantage, the entire world is threatned when something like food and energy is suddenly cut off.
This is not a situation that an insurance company would want to be involved in when it comes to “business interruption” insurance.
In other words globalization offers lower prices, however it is more fragile and subject to the collapse of the entire system.
My evidence is the global cashflows(credit).
imho
Back from the Infamous Dew Drop lotsa moaning and groaning about bills gas, food etc. boring. Lars and I grabbed a few and sat outside for quiet. Ergo home early
“Abstract:
What damage have meteorites done to humans in recorded history? Through our extensive research druning this semester, we discovered numerous instances of recorded impacts damaging humans, animals, and property. It was difficult to verify the authenticity of actual deaths and injuries, but we found such an abundance of reports that it became impossible for us to completely discount the reports as hoaxes. In our report we cite many instances that stood out as both representative of other reports and emblematic of the exceptional nature of meteorite impacts. We concluded with several scientic analyses concerning the probability rate of meteorite impact upon a human target. ‘
Just knowledge,
Anyone curious should read.
Some Established Meteor Strikes:\
“…02/03/1490 Shansi, China - 10,000 deaths. …
…The most important conclusion is that meteorite falls constitute an utterly negliable hazard compared to a single large multimegaton airburst such as the Tunguska explosion (Lewis 1998).”
Sorry my bad, just interesting charts that I would present differently.
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Push for sub-prime regulation loses steam… Ah, It’s wonderful to watch a well oiled machine at work. Typical, these bozos will do what they do best… Gum up the works, good thing they operate as well on the FED level.
Sen. Michael Machado (D-Linden), chairman of the Senate Banking, Finance and Insurance Committee, opposed most of the bills, saying they would subject the mortgage industry to contradictory federal and state regulations.
Machado worried that cracking down on mortgage bankers and brokers could dry up credit and “restrict the accessibility to home loans for the very people” lawmakers were trying to help.
Consumer advocates were outraged.
“The system does not work in favor of the consumer,” said Kevin Stein of the California Reinvestment Coalition, a group that promotes economic development in low-income communities. “The lobbyists for the industry outnumber the consumer groups. They seem to have greater access [to lawmakers] and give more money.”
During more than five hours of hearings, both Republicans and Democrats on the committee supported only one measure that had been high on consumer groups’ agenda, a bill by Assemblyman Alberto Torrico (D-Newark), AB 529, that would require lenders to give homeowners more advance notice when their sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgages were about to reset to a higher interest rate.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage19-2008jun19,0,4590951.story
“The lobbyists for the industry outnumber the consumer groups. They seem to have greater access [to lawmakers] and give more money.”
That’s a great quote. There are no blue light specials in Congress.
Whoever throws the most money on the table writes the legislation.
RE: Whoever throws the most money on the table writes the legislation.
Just like the governments of all the Third World dungholes.
Time to join a milita.
‘Time to join a milita.’
Just become an ‘Army of One’. I’ll mail you some extra bullets, if you want. And a sandwich.
I’m with you on that O’gal. I just bought a Mossberg 500 Security and will be loading up on the ammo and sandwich fixins.
Hey, this has probably already been posted here, but just in case …
Bloomberg: U.S. Charges 400 in National Mortgage Fraud Crackdown (Update1)
http://tinyurl.com/68ebzj
This should not be a surprise to anyone. It’s not cynical, it’s simply a fact. Anyone who works for any sizable company that does any business with government learns this matter of factly and as a matter of course.
If you don’t pay, you can’t play. Congress is strictly “Pay to play.”
About an year ago I commented on this blog that US was just as corrupt as 3rd world but we had invented euphemisms such as ‘campaign contributions’, ‘lobby groups’ to hide the obvious.
“Sen. Michael Machado (D-Linden), chairman of the Senate Banking, Finance and Insurance Committee, opposed most of the bills, saying they would subject the mortgage industry to contradictory federal and state regulations.”
“Machado worried that cracking down on mortgage bankers and brokers could dry up credit and ‘restrict the accessibility to home loans for the very people’ lawmakers were trying to help.”
I wonder how many mortgage bankers and brokers are among his campaign donors? Shouldn’t that read “Machado worried that cracking down on mortgage bankers and brokers could dry up campaign donations…”
While enjoying your sarcastic poke at the legislator, I have to say that any amount of regulation would dry up “my” well, i.e., probably put me out of the lending business. And I don’t have any lobbying power at all. I’m just saying there’s some truth to the notion that some regulations would have the unintended consequence of making it harder for consumers to borrow. I certainly don’t object to the one about providing extra advance notice of ARM resets, since I never lend ARMs anyway.
There is definitely some truth to what you are saying. If you make regulation too onerous, competition will be reduced, and the price to consumers will go up. Availability will be impacted somewhat, as lenders such as yourself are regulated out of business.
That said, given how we got into this mess, too much regulation isn’t the problem. I just hope there are some politicians out there that can make appropriate tweaks to change incentives and reduce fraud.
I like things like added disclosure (including disclosure of mortgage broker fees when the broker is showing you your loan options) and changing the relationship between mortgage brokers and their clients to one that is fiduciary in nature (the broker is required by law to act in the client’s best interest).
Get information into the hands of the consumers (including information about your salesman’s incentives) and let them make their own decisions.
“Get information into the hands of the consumers (including information about your salesman’s incentives) and let them make their own decisions.”
The Truth in Lending Act supposedly did that, but it didn’t work.
If you need gov’t bailouts (especially because you are “too big to fail”), then you need gov’t regulation. End of story.
To my understanding, the Truth in Lending Act does not have the obligation for mortgage brokers to act in the best interest of their clients (to the level of being their fiduciary), nor does it require the brokers to disclose that fees they are to be paid for the various options they lay out to you.
I agree wholeheartedly about your comment that if you are “too big to fail” that you need government regulation. We can talk about whether Bear was a “bailout” or a government sponsored “crash landing”. I think that in an ideal world, they should be allowed to fail. The government should set a threshold, above which you are subject to significant regulation. If you are a $50B entity, no regulation, but if you get out over your skis, good luck to you. If you are above a certain size threshold, things like 30x leverage is a big “no-no”.
I’m open to new regulations. I hope though that they don’t go overboard as they did with SOX. As a sophisticated borrower, I would hate to have such regulations restrict my ability to take out an option ARM or other exotic loan product, if that’s what I chose to do (for whatever reason).
Regulations in reaction to a crisis that don’t go overboard? Er, when was the last time that happened?
Um, isn’t “accessibility to home loans” the PROBLEM?! Toxic loans are not “helping” people, while affordable prices would help… argh!
Amen!
Oh sure, lock the barn door after the horse is gone. Or, more accurately, lock the house door after the FB is inside.
These advocates need to educate their “low-information” consumers before they sign the papers, not after. Rather than disallowing such loans, why not make the subprime FBs take a little class beforehand, which educates them on exactly what they are getting into. Here, I’ll even suggest a syllabus to get started:
Intro: Quit your whining about having to show up for this class; you want this unusual loan, you have to sit here. And yes, there will be a quiz.
Hour 1: Fundamentals of loan service. (Yes, your payment will go up.)
Hour 2: Get it in Writing. (No, you can’t “just refinance later.”)
Hour 3: Fundamentals of fees. (They ain’t givin’ you this loan because you’re so handsome.)
Hour 4: Personal responsbility. (No, we won’t bail out your sorry butt. You sign, you pay.)
Quiz. And yes, you have to pass it.
I don’t recall seeing “the right to a subprime loan” in the Constitution.
“Or, more accurately, lock the house door after the FB is inside.”
And then set fire to the place
There we go! What a good teevee series that would make!
Ahhhh…I’m going to sit here and think happily about it.
But first, make sure any cute wooden chairs are out of the house, and any nice dishes. I hate to see chairs and dishes harmed.
“the committee supported only one measure …. AB 529, that would require lenders to give homeowners more advance notice when their sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgages were about to reset to a higher interest rate.”
So the one measure that goes through is to ensure that people know when the poison they swallowed is going to kill them. That’s great. And it’s only sub-prime. All the garbage prime mortgages won’t even get the warning.
I can see the letters that this proposal will generate.
“Dear valued customer, you mortgage bill is about to increase by 40%. Now is a good time to realise you can’t afford this increase or sell your house for enough to cover the balance you owe. A short sale or loan adjustment is possible, but our reps are only manning the phones on Thurs evenings on even numbered weeks when there is a full moon. We recommend you begin emptying your retirement savings now, as that is the best option available for us.”
The big problem was that borrowers were not reading their loan documents that stated the terms of the loans . Another problem was that commissioned loan agents deceived borrowers verbally as to the terms of the loan , knowing that a lot of people don’t like to read the tons of paper-work . How do you get people to read important loan documents ? During a mania ,a number of borrowers didn’t care what kind of loan they went on ,especially if they could get a low down loan or not supply income documentation and get a teaser rate . Also ,the borrowers were promised verbally that they could just refinance the toxic loan they took out ,without being told that in a tight money market there is no assurance that they will be able to get out of a toxic loan .
I don’t agree with how the industry sold loans during the housing boom because it was all about using leverage to get appreciation .
The industry pushed faulty verbal advice to the borrowers because they didn’t warn borrower about what would happen if real estate didn’t go up.
Maybe they should enact some laws that give the borrower a longer time to review the documents before the loan can close or fund . I have always felt that they put to much pressure on borrowers to sign at the last minute . Perhaps a few more disclosures need to go out on the terms of the loan in bigger bold letters , at least the parts of the contract that would be of concern to borrowers should be in bigger darker print,with maybe a requirement that the borrower has to sign that they understand it .
How do you get people to really read their loan documents and not trust the verbal BS of the commissioned sales people ,who just want people to sign fast so they can get their commission ? I made them send out my loan documents a week ahead of time so I could review them.
But regarding borrowers going on lousy loans ,the borrowers were given the opportunity to get easy money for speculation with little skin in the game ,and they went for it for most part . The lenders were the fools for making loans like that ,(especially non-recourse loans ). Did borrower really expect that lenders wouldn’t want a higher interest rate down the road ?
How do you create new laws that cover human behavior in a
speculation mania in which borrower and lenders throw caution to the wind and take risks they normally wouldn’t? How do you stop
trade groups ,like the NAR ,from brainwashing people with their faulty investment advice and predictions ? The media doesn’t talk to much about the mass brainwashing that took place during the boom because of the cheer-leading from the trade groups and advertisers that lead people to believe that Real Estate was a no-lose investment and real estate always goes up .
The big problem was that borrowers were not reading their loan documents that stated the terms of the loans . Another problem was that commissioned….
Aw BS. Most of the people I know were looking at skyrocketing prices and didn’t give a rats backside about no stinking reset. They grabbed cash back, heloc money and told me how amazing their investments were. And it was across a broad spectrum of people.
Black/White/Asian/Mexican… got lots guys showing up in pimped out Lexuses at the reformed Baptist church my buddy goes to and I occasionally visit… and most of those people weren’t rich.
Got lots of scoffs when I talked about being in debt was a sin. Unaware… bullplop. Most of them were signing liar loan docs too. Not like they didn’t know. If they couldn’t handle the reset it was all sell and keep the gains. F that… for every 1 person that “did understand” 10 were shooting for a big free payday
Amen brother. Thanks to these class A a$$holes, prices were driven up to a point where, nevermind what I can afford, it would be sheer stupidity for me to buy in.
Thanks to them, a well behaved and very sweet five year old girl doesn’t have a backyard to play in, and instead has to live in a crappy two bedroom apartment.
Now they want the government to take my money and use it to bail their lying, gambling asses out on top of it all.
Does no one in our government have a sense of justice anymore? Are you reading this congresscritters? We’re TIRED of this crap.
I’m voting 3rd party from now on, unless there’s a REALLY good case for a particular individual. If nothing else, I will definitely vote against whomever is the incumbent.
I say throw the bums out of office next election. Either vote 3rd part, or for the other guy. A high turnover rate may be the ONLY thing they will listen to from the people….
If you would note in the entirety of my post I said that people wanted these loans for speculation purpose and they didn’t care what type of loans they went on .
If you have ever read a number of my posts you would know I give no slack to the borrowers because I believe they knew what they were doing and a good % of them lied on their loan applications . Still, many borrowers were lied to and didn’t fully understand what they were doing ,in spite of their motive being speculation .So, I’m just saying as long as a speculator knows what they are doing regarding taking out a loan, than it’s better.
How can you think that the mass brainwashing and cheer-leading didn’t influence people ?
I think before the lawmakers go changing all the laws ,a complete neutral investigation needs to be conducted to determine the causes of the housing crash . So much of the crash was because of widespread lending fraud .So,under those circumstances more regulations would be needed that prevented fraud ,as a example , a better system that would not put appraisers in a position of starving if they didn’t hit the mark on appraisals .
Big Three Tone Down Rate Hike Threats… “Threats”? Did anyone seriously believe that our FED would raise rates? The one and only bogeyman that keeps Ben Bernake a wake at night is Deflation…
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/06/17/big_three_central_banks_tone_down_rate_hike_threats/
House Dems Call For Nationalization Of Refineries… The papers are chock full of humor this morning… Perhaps our D.C. circus should call Chavez the ringmaster down in Venezuela for some handy tips on just how to go about this…
http://www.foxnews.com/urgent_queue/index.html#a54ef44,2008-06-18
Yes, I was going to add this.
http://www.redstate.com/stories/congress/democrats_skip_right_over_socialism_land_squarely_in_the_land_of_karl_and_hugo
elections DO matter
The problem I have is(with both parties) I think they are all power hungry lunatics…They continue to waste time and our money lifted from the Taxpayer.
From the article…
“The lunatics we put in power in 2006 have rather nicely gone and outdone themselves with this little brainstorm… I swear I’m stuck in a really bad episode of the Twilight Zone”:
House Democrats responded to President’s Bush’s call for Congress to lift the moratorium on offshore drilling. This was at an on-camera press conference fed back live.
Among other things, the Democrats called for the government to own refineries so it could better control the flow of the oil supply.
[...]
We (the government) should own the refineries. Then we can control how much gets out into the market.
I think you touch on something very important. When we talk about national health care or nationalized petroleum production as you mentioned, there is this American construct of US (the people) and THEM (the government). The fact is the WE ARE THE GOVERNMENT. If we have national health care, it is OURS, the citizens, the people. It isn’t owned by a few power-hungry businessmen.
Adam,
So true, so many people even the media forget we are the government, the government is we the people.
Democrats and Republicans are two heads of the same beast. That is painfully obvious if you look closely. Differences really amount to splitting hairs. The whole “left/right” paradigm is just a tool used by the real PTB.
–
What conclusion can one draw from this about partisan Americans?
Jas
“What conclusion…?”
They’re not looking at other alternatives. Allowing ourselves to think only within this false Dem/Rep dichotomy limits our ability to demand and achieve significant change.
–
“They’re not looking at other alternatives.”
Do you suppose that doping from birth onwards has something to do with it? BTW, all cultures do some or other form of doping to instill faith in the system in place. In our case, it is the two-party democratic system. It is very convenient and simplistic for people to follow, or cling to — blame the other party for most of the ills! Believe you me, I know some thoroughbred partisan dopes. There is one guy, in his seventies, who has been Republican all his life and is a staunch Bush supporter today. He juts wishes Bush could have a third term because McCain isn’t good enough.
It is all about beliefs and habits of the population, mostly a cultural heritage. Independent thinkers are rare in any place.
Jas
Good cop. Bad cop.
One of the older tricks in book.
Red is a bad color choice for a political party that is:
x1 war in Afghanistan & x1 war in Iraq
GOP Motto: “Live & vote in fear”
Rush Limpbaughs Motto: ” Dont bother thinking…I know everything”
–
Would you say that ditto-heads are born-and-bred dopes (brainwashed and conditioned most of their lives)? I know some people with very high native intelligence who are ditto-heads and, yes, they do know everything (we know the source!)
Jas
ditto
lol
That’s guy’s still around?? I thought after his drug bust he’d go away…
Someone needs a lesson in Sarcasm and Humor 101.
Even with it’s flaws, the GOP sure beats the party of cut and run cowards any day.
Free membership:
Rush Limpbaughs Motto: ” Dont bother thinking…I know everything”
“Even with it’s flaws, the GOP sure beats the party of cut and run cowards any day.”
Cut and Run is an old nautical term that means you cut the anchor rope, because something wicked weatherwise is coming your way, and there is no time to dilly dally…
When you cut and run you get pushed by the wind. Of course when you are running you are always slower than the wind and get caught by the storm everytime.
So, its a desperation move.
Normally you go close hauled or on a reach to side step the weather.
Hardest part of sailing is controling the boat going with the wind and waves. You lose rudder all the time and can jibe unexpectedly.
“The ‘cutting rope’ derivation was certainly accepted later in that century by David Steel, the author of the 1794 tome The Elements and Practice of Rigging and Seamanship:”
“To Cut and run, to cut the cable and make sail instantly, without waiting to weigh anchor.”
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/cut-and-run.html
The paralells between Stalingrad late 1942 and Iraq 2008 are eery…
250,000 Americans (G.I.’s/Blackwaters/Haliburton) is roughly the same amount of men that the Nazis had in Stalingrad.
When the Nazis made their initial push towards the city, it looked like they would have an easy time of it, but got bogged down in street to street fighting.
In the end a fierce winter and lack of fuel spelled their demise.
It will be a hellish summer and lack of fuel that does us in, unless we “cut and run” at some point.
I find it amusing that liberals cry paranoia anytime terrorism is mentioned. Yet you throw out comparisons to Stalingrad and lack of fuel without missing a beat.
This comparison isn’t even “apple and oranges”. More like ” apples and rocks”
It wasn’t the street fighting that caused the German defeat at Stalingrad. At the time that the Soviets attacked to cut off the salient, the German Army had captured something like 90% of the city. Most of the Germans who died because of Stalingrad didn’t die there, they died after being taken prisoner, thanks to Hitler’s “No retreat” orders.
I don’t see any multi-million man force anywhere in the Middle East that is capable of “another Stalingrad”, no President is ever going to issue “Stand or die” orders, and no General Officer in the US military would ever issue them.
The ‘terrorists’ of 1942 were called partisans, and they regularly attacked Nazi supply columns, causing much grief…
Are the similarities of our lost cause sinking in, yet?
It wasn’t the street fighting that caused the American defeat at Baghdad. At the time that the insurgents attacked to cut off the salient, the American Army had captured something like 90% of the city. Most of the Americans who died because of Baghdad didn’t die there, they died after being taken prisoner, thanks to ’ssshrubery’s “No retreat” orders.
It wasn’t the “partisans” who defeated the German Army.
It was the Soviet Army, Hitler’s “Stand or Die” orders, when a retreat to a better defensive line would have made more sense, and the spring-summer 1944 air campaign against the German transportation network and oil product facilities.
…..American defeat at Baghdad……”
So…….what point are you trying to make?
There isn’t going to be a victory or defeat in Iraq. The Shrub picked the wrong fight, at the wrong time, with lukewarm support at home, and ignored the guys that knew what they were talking about, when it came time for estimating what it would take to “secure” (for the lack of a better word).
He screwed up, and the US Army and Marine Corp. were left to try to salvage something from the situation.
It wasn’t the “terrorists” who defeated the American Army.
It was the financial army, ’ssshrubery’s “Stand or Die” orders, when a retreat to a better defensive line would have made more sense, and the spring-summer 2008 gas campaign against the American transportation network and oil product facilities.
Anything else to bolster my theory?
Keep serving up 8 mph softballs if you’d like…
There isn’t going to be a victory or defeat in Stalingrad. The fuhrer picked the wrong fight, at the wrong time, with lukewarm support at home, and ignored the guys that knew what they were talking about, when it came time for estimating what it would take to “secure” (for the lack of a better word).
He screwed up, and the wehrmacht & luftwaffe were left to try to salvage something from the situation.
I frankly have no idea what the hell you are talking about.
If you are going to use historical precendent, pick one that aligns a little better with the facts.
You seem to have the idea that everything the Shrub and Company do is some kind of huge conspiracy.
I, on the other hand, think these guys are too stupid, and run their mouths too much, to pull off said conspiracy.
We obviously have different world views.
All I did was take your words, and switched time, people & places…
I’m so tired of hitting homers, please throw me the hard heat now.
Yeah, and in 1940 German army took over Moscow, captured Stalin and formed a government. Yup… Seems like Iraq 2008.
The Nazis set up puppet governments all over the vast areas of Russia that they conquered, just like we’ve done in the middle east.
The Russians and the Germans also knew whom they were fighting against, as each side had identifiable uniforms, vs. our current debacle where we are the only ones so attired, and the bad guys all wear their clothing of their own choosing and look remarkably similar to non-combatants, of which we can’t distinguish one from the other, because we don’t speak their language.
p.s.
In 1940 Germany & Russia were allies, just like the USA and Iraq until 1990…
You are confused.
Hitler never took Moscow.
Hitler never setup goverments in Ukraine, Russia or Belorussia, Estonia, Latvia or Litva.
Hitler never captured Stalin.
If you think that the non-aggression pact between USSR and Germany was anything other than realpolitik you really need to re-read history books.
I guess this didn’t exist…
Reichskommissariat Ukraine
Reichskommissariat Ukraine excluded parts of present-day Ukraine. It extended, in the west, from the Volhynian region around Lutsk, to a line from Vinnytsia to Mykolaiv along the Southern Bug River in the south, to the areas surrounding Kiev, Poltava and Zaporizhia in the east, but excluded the Crimea, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and the Donbas/Donets Basin, which remained under German military jurisdiction. At its greatest extent, it included just under 340,000 square kilometers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichskommissariat_Ukraine
And the realpolitik between the Nazis and Soviets wasn’t a whole lot different than this…
http://justimage.org/blog/media/1/20061229-rumsfeld-hussein.jpg
hmmm… the ideologues never seem to give up lying and distorting, even when slapped silly with historical fact.
Well done Aladdin.
Wow. It was an elected government. Amazing. Go back to learning history.
The TV networks chose the colors, not the parties. They were being PC when they gave red to the Republicans in 2000.
We all know which is the real “red” party.
Elections do matter, you’re right.
But you really need to find some better sources.
The Lowest Common Denominator Troglodyte Rants grow tiresome — especially from that screeching weasel Michelle Malkin.
ever read the Huffington Post?
talk about screeching weasels.
I read it occasionally.
Some of the writers I like, some definitely are screechers or whiners. And the comment-posters at HuffPo tend to drive me nuts (regardless of political orientation).
Lieberman has lost his mind. Having turned Republican, he’s a frequent mention for VP on McCain’s ticket. All aboard the Socialist Express.
“All aboard the Socialist Express”.
Both parties are heading us in the same direction, anytime some lone wolf in D.C. calls for less Gubmint he/she is shot down. Nobody wants to hear it, but our founding fathers knew full well what happens when big government takes control. Loss of Liberty.
Nobody wants to hear it, but our founding fathers knew full well what happens when big government takes control.
Which is why they opted for a minimalist three-branch government.
–
“minimalist three-branch government.”
But like a hydra it grows and grows and even added a forth head (Federal Reserve). Like the Church and the monarchy in France, over time…
Jas
No politician exists to obtain LESS power/control over his subjects.
They are inherently the types of creatures who promulgate bigger and bigger government.
And your vote does matter. To the legislator.
Was just watching “morning joe” on MSNBC. They had a guest on who was questioning the need for a 1,000 mile border given that we are a “nation of immigrants”. I won’t go into the specific issue of how uncontrolled illegal immigration has economically & culturally damaged the US over the years. Mainly because it is largely my opinion that is only backed up by my personal observations/anecdotal reports.
However, what was illuminating and different about the exchange of ideas this morning was when Pat Buchannon (sp?) piped in that his concern (I’m paraphrasing) surrounded the North American Union plans and how the highway being built (AKA NAFTA Superhighway) could/would lead to the demise of the soveriegnty of the US as well as our culture.
No one on the set even blinked an eye at the mention of the NAU. Now, don’t you think that one of the anchors, upon hearing of a plan as radical and fraught with a multitude of constitutional issues as this, would have jumped in with a barrage of questions and outrage? Not a frackin peep from these dolts questioning the sanity of Mr Buchannon to even suggest that such a ridiculous plan exists.
I’m telling you guys right now, the leadership of the US has already planned out how this crisis is going to go down and “defending the constitution of the US” isn’t among their list of objectives. They are forcing us into consolidating cultures and nations vis-a-vie an energy/financial crisis. When the smoke clears from this mess in a decade or so, we’ll be living under a totally new set of laws, borders and monetary system that is designed to increase control over the masses while reducing freedoms and rights.
Sorry for the early morning “tin foil” but this kind of mass media “conditioning” for what is coming just pisses me off.
Auguar,
you and I are on the same page on this. I think every step of the way, they have been gauging public opposition,and found that it is largely nil. Usurp powers never granted to the executive branch, open secret detention prisons in undisclosed countries with unknown numbers of prisoners with torture on the menu. Sell a war by deliberately hoaxing the citizenry. Allow illegal immigration on a massive scale. Trash the Justice dept, et. al.
The globalistas have their playbook and it’s working for them.
A glimmer of hope from the legislators in OK. I hope the rest of the states grow a pair.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=67229
I agree with you also Auger .I believe right now that it’s a real critical point in American History .
“…open secret detention prisons in undisclosed countries with unknown numbers of prisoners…”
Hello…McFly?! Did you not just see what having a specified number of prisoners on US-controlled soil, decidedly un-secretly, got us? Enemy combatants now get rights to trial in US courts just like citizens.
If the globalists, by enacting their “playbook,” happen to save us from ourselves, perhaps they deserve the power over us that some folks attribute to them.
This is great news!
Let’s annex Mexico now!
We’ll finally get to trade cheap labor for easy access to Mexican oil and beaches. AND when Mexico builds its big port on Baja, then LA doesn’t have to deal with all the smog and pollution we get from our ports. Sweet!
“I’m telling you guys right now, the leadership of the US has already planned out how this crisis is going to go down and “defending the constitution of the US” isn’t among their list of objectives.”
Hitting.Nail.On.Head.
After watching the abbeviated second season of “Jericho” (Netflix) I think I know why it was cancelled: too close to the bone for the PTB.
A rogue President from Cheyenne–hmmm, Wyoming? Terrorist attacks that turn out to be an inside job? A bloodthirsty mercenary outfit called “Ravenwood” that takes over the town, is unaccountable for civilian killings and operates like an organized crime operation? Rationing? Confiscation of property? Checkpoints? I mean, really . . . what were they thinking?
But, hey! how `bout that Dale Earnhart, Jr. last week? I tell you what . . . .
More like the “Israel First” express. I would assume carpet bombing of Iran would be the first order of biz in the McCainiac regime.
Is Israel really worth the bother, of being the cause of starting World War 3?
Right on aladin. Nothing like making their problems our problems. I’ll never understand the rightwing asskissing of Israel.
All you need to understand is who actually the strongest toe-hold in the leadership of the Pentagon and Wall Street and it’s very clear why Israel is the 51st state.
It sure is. Israel’s enemies have deserved a good kick in the a$$ for decades.
Oh, and the previous comment is not anti-semitic. It’s anti-zionist. Christian zionists in America wield a mighty sword these days.
I’ll never understand the rightwing asskissing of Israel.
Some of it, at least, is rooted in the fundie idea that the Israelites and their “homeland” must play an essential role in the Rapture / Second Coming of That Charismatic Carpenter. Call it religious opportunism, maybe.
There are a handful of other reasons for that right wing support as well (some with merit, or at least debatable), but the fundamentalist angle is an important component.
“There are a handful of other reasons for that right wing support as well (some with merit, or at least debatable), but the fundamentalist angle is an important component.”
I tried to post the same thing but it didn’t go through. Christian Zionism plays a big part in American foreign policy. Herr Bush is one.
Representative Ron Paul says House Speaker Nancy Pelosi removed a section from a bill passed by Congress which would have barred the U.S. from going to war with Iran without a congressional vote, claiming she did so at the behest of the leadership of Israel and AIPAC.
Paul, a former Republican presidential contender who formally removed himself from the party’s nomination race last week, makes the allegation on C-SPAN during a recently held foreign policy conference in Virginia.
Paul says Pelosi’s first act as House Speaker in 2006 was to “deliberately” remove a portion of a legislative spending bill which said the United States “can’t go to war with Iran without getting approval from Congress.”
According to Paul, Pelosi and her allies in the chamber’s Democratic leadership initially accepted the bill designed to outline an Iraq exit strategy, but during a revision of the legislation excluded the statement regarding the need for congressional approval of any military assault on the neighboring country of Iran.
“She [Pelosi] removed it deliberately,” Paul says. “And then, the astounding thing is, when asked why, she said the leadership in Israel asked her to. That was in the newspaper, that was in ‘The Washington Post,’ that she was asked by AIPAC and others not to do that.”
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/paul_pelosi_AIPAC/2008/06/18/105652.html
I imagine that Great Britain got hornswoggled into a similar defense treaty with Poland in the 1930’s, although few Britons had any ties to the country.
Sound familar?
So what would be your solution to a nuclear Iran? Let Isreal our allies, be wiped off the map ?
Israel has plenty of nukes and Iran has none…
Now which country was the real threat?
It’s not our job to defend Israel. Certainly not worth starting WW3 over. Besides, Israel already has 25 nukes, I don’t believe Iran is a threat. This sounds awfully like the “massive stockpiles of WMD” we were supposed to find in Iraq. Iran is at least 10 years away from a nuclear weapon.
Really, so your solution is to take out Israel because it is a “threat”? Using your insane logic Iran should have nukes to “balance” Israel? How many prime ministers of Israel have threatened to wipe Iran off the map? Let’s say Iran decides to nuke Israel and creates the second holocaust would your conscience be clear? Mine won’t. Never again.
Iran. Period.
Really, so your solution is to take out Israel because it is a “threat”? Using your insane logic Iran should have nukes to “balance” Israel? How many prime ministers of Israel have threatened to wipe Iran off the map? Let’s say Iran decides to nuke Israel and creates the second holocaust would your conscience be clear? Mine won’t. Never again.
Israel has sub nukes, so it’s a lose-lose deal were Iran to hit them with one or 2.
We have no conventional armed forces left (all deployed in various sandboxes) to attack Iran conventionally, so we are between Iraq and a hard place.
Why should we get involved?
Iranian prime minister is not the “supreme leader”. The Ayatollah is. The fact that he’s the new boogeyman is simply more evidence that the neo-cons have no clue to what a real threat is. We’re being hood-winked AGAIN.
I’ve eluded to the fact here on this blog that the real war is an economic one between China and the US. The mid-east hooey is a mere diversion but it seems to pass over the head of some ideological types. hint hint.
Who’s Iran going to nuke? Israel?
1) If they nuke Israel, that means they nuke Palestine and the holy lands. Nevermind the fallout that will drift over Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. That’s not going to go over well with the Arab muslim states.
2) Israel is grown up now. They have nukes and can retaliate.
3) Israel has done plenty of stuff, that to me, seems un-American. Also, our association with them makes us look bad on the world stage. Let Israel take care of itself.
4) The only benefit nukes provide Iran is defense (e.g. nuking a carrier group as we try to invade).
If the US takes care of Israel, then they don’t have to spend money on defense, and can build more housing in occupied territories, socialized medicine, etc.
It’s not that they can’t take care of themselves, they just won’t if they don’t have to.
“We have no conventional armed forces left (all deployed in various sandboxes) to attack Iran conventionally, so we are between Iraq and a hard place.”
Riddle me this, riddle me that…
What nation beginning with the letter “I” lies between the sandboxes known as Iraq and Afghanistan?
Hint… the president of the nation in question claims to have discussions with the Twelfth Imam who dwells at the bottom of a well, and the only way to get him to come out is the Islamification of the entire planet.
The bombs out back, Camp Pendleton, are being dropped in double time now. Rapid fire bombs instead of every minute.
When I hear the choppers going over in the middle of the night, that means more young men are shippin’ out.
No late night chopper flights yet.
Are you around Pendleton? I spent my teens in San Clemente.
Humble words and increased preparations are signs that the enemy is about to advance — Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
Sounds like Cheney is ramping up for one last par-tay before the moving van pulls up on Kalorama Ave.
“When I hear the choppers going over in the middle of the night, that means more young men are shippin’ out.
No late night chopper flights yet.”
Hey, Ouro,
Can you imagine the official consternation should a group of dedicated bloggers coordinate on this?
I live in restricted airspace bordering a test flight area–one which is remarkably similar to Afghanistan/Mid Yeast in terrain and weather patterns. When we start getting the 10pm-2am over-flights, (shhhhhhhh, it’s nighttime and nobody can hear us…) it’s a sure sign something invasive is afoot and I invest accordingly. In fifteen years, hasn’t failed me once. Heartbreaking but remunerative.
What would you expect from an administration that has perfected the art of covering up a mess, by creating another one?
RE: House Dems Call For Nationalization Of Refineries…
Gut a DEM and you’ll find a socialist inside.
Gut a REPUG and you’ll find a DEM inside. Different wings–same bird of prey. Partisanship is for tools. But it does keep the proles preoccupied, doesn’t it?
Oh, so we don’t have enough refineries? The high gas prices is a refinery issue?
Lol. The refineries are now running at less than full capacity because the consumption of gasolone has FALLEN in this country.
It’s the price of oil, not the shortage of gasoline being refined, that is causing the high gasoline prices.
Entire world does not have enough refineries.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JF18Dj07.html
From the article:
“The view that high oil prices are due to a shortage of refining capacity in industrialized nations was supported this week by the United Arab emeirates Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamlin.”
Think about this statement for a minute. This guy is saying the high oil prices are due to a shortage of oil refineries. But if there was a shortage of refineries there should be a decreased demand for the oil that goes into these refineries, not an increased demand.
A shortage of refineries would translate into a shortage of gasoline. Anyone notice any gas lines lately?
From today’s WSJ (page A12): “Highway Trust Revenue Expected to Have Shortfall”
Due to decreased gasoline consumption “Trust fund revenue is projected to run a shortfall of at least $3 billion next year …”
“We’re burning less fuel as energy costs change driving patterns, steer people toward more fuel-efficient vehicles and encourage more to use transit.”
Shortage of refineries translates in shortage of gasoline at a -specific- price. Anyone can see it every time he/she drives by a gas station. There is 0 gazoline that can be had at $3.25/gal, $3.26/gal, $3.27 etc…. There is gasoline to be had at $4.11/gal. When that runs out there is going to be gasoline at $4.12/gal, etc.
Refineries are NOT buying crude on a spot market. Neither they are buying crude at prices for Jul delivery today. They are consumers of oil. Futures for them is a hedge. We have not yet seen the price of gasoline to reflect oil price greater than $130.
I understood nothing from your post.
What I do understand is gas consumption in this country has fallen off. This means refiners don’t need to convert as much oil into gasoline as they once did, which means they need less oil.
Whether refiners they buy oil on the spot market, take deliveries on the futures market - or whatever - has no bearing on the fact that they need less oil because consumers are using less gas.
There is no such thing as “demand”. There is only demand at a specific price.
“There is no such thing as ‘demand’”.
Oh.
“There is only demand at a specific price.”
But… but…but you just said there is no such thing as demand.
Again, there is no such thing as a demand… there is only demand at a specific price.
Which accounts for … what exactly?
As the price for gas goes up the consumption goes down. Is that what you are saying?
If so, then you must also be saying that if the consumption for gas goes down then the need for refining oil into gas must go down as well.
Thus the need for more refineries to convert oil into gas must also go down.
Therefore the high oil prices must not be caused by a lack of refineries but for some other reason.
Agree?
Consumption is an f’(x) not f(x). f’(x) != f(x). In fact f’(x) has nothing in common with f(x). Using f(x) to describe f’(x) is stupid.
“Entire world does not have enough refineries.”
Then explain why US refiners were mothballing refineries in Delaware and PA in 1999….
Then explain why no refiner has submitted an application for new refinery construction since 1979.
For -environmental reasons-.
Better ideas… always win ( I don’t think he is a communist or a supporter of the GOP) :
“What if oil prices collapse?
If they do, our oil exploration won’t go so well, but we’ll be compensated by the profits we get from our various airlines. If they go the other way, the oil-exploration and -refinery business will be fine. It’s quite a good hedge. We would almost rather damage the oil price and see it come down. It will take more than ourselves to have an effect on the marketplace.”
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2005/nf20050920_0695_db053.htm
Heard on the radio this morning that DC is numero uno, with 13 foreclosures per 1,000 homes sold. Reportedly higher than Miami or Florida. WTOP news, metro DC.
Woo woo! We’re picking up speed on the road to sanity.
We’re #1! Take that, you californians! *shakes fist in the air in victory*
The rabbit (the rest of the country) and the turtle (California)
foreclosure without representation.
LOL!
Good one.
I keep throwing these types of stats around, but just get ignored.
“Its different in DC!”
“Real estate only goes up here”
“DC is recession immune”
People are really brainwashed hear, and they all think they are rich. I keep telling them, if my wife and i can’t afford the average house in this area there is a problem. (we are a grade 29) They say, of course…. Get a starter home, you have to start somewhere.. It makes me laugh.
This whole idea of a starter home is just crazy. I never once heard my parents growing up talking about a starter home. They bought a home they wanted to live in, not one that was just termporary. If they wanted temporary, they would rent. Where the hell did this idea of a starter home come from? I know, must the RE industry. Just another scam on us gullible consumers.
I agree 100%. With the transaction costs so high, the only way this makes any sense is if the starter houses are guaranteed to go up in price and the one you move to isn’t (yeah, pull the other one) or if there are no rentals in safe neighborhoods, at all. Maybe a tiny bit if you are completely incapable of saving money in which case you shouldn’t have been able to get a loan even for the starter shack.
This whole “dream house” thing is a big problem too.
I disagree. A starter home is a low-price home where you can start building equity instead of throwing money away on rent.* Presumably, 3-4 years (and 1- 2 babies) later, you sell and move to more permanent digs. The small appreciation covered your closing costs and interest, and you could effectively transfer your payments on principle, the equity, to a down payment on a trade-up. Theoretically, by retirement in 30 years you would have enough equity pay off “a” house, even if it’s your 3rd or 4th house.
I don’t see why this is such a bad plan.
*remember this is back when house prices were low enough and loans were sane enough that renting WAS throwing money away.
” you can start building equity…”
Have owned 4 homes over 30 years. Realtors always made more on the houses than I did. When all expenses are calculated, this is the usual case.
Correction to my post above - Coffee had not sunk in yet - The report said Miami or San Francisco, not “Miami or Florida”
“Mini Stagflation” ?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap7GuatJJe.M&refer=home
“Inflation is in the pipes,” declares Bill Bonner. “Soon, it will be backing up in the bathtub drain and spilling over from the sink. Over the last 15 years, the world has seen huge inputs of ‘liquidity’ - cash and credit from central banks and the financial industry. Everyone was perfectly happy when this juice was going into asset prices. But one by one the bubbles have popped and now the liquidity goes where it is unwelcome - into commodities, food, and fuel.
“Consumers and central banks are both trapped. Central banks want to lower rates and increase liquidity in order to stimulate a sagging economy. But their inflation no longer swells assets prices and nourishes economic growth; now it leaks into consumer prices.
“And the poor American consumer! He spent his entire career preparing for an economy that no longer exists. He has a big house, a big car, and, often, a big mortgage. America’s far-flung suburbs were invented when gasoline was only about 25 cents a gallon and real U.S. incomes were rising.”
I look forward to inflation. A higher wage is always a good thing.
This inflation won’t bring higher wages.
exactly…we have re-urbanization instead.
“This inflation won’t bring higher wages.”
Then there is no inflation.
Sound like a supply siders paradise, ay??
Expansion of money supply is here.
The notion of inflation always corresponding with rising wages is rubbish. It comes from the time when the same product could be manufactured in two different locations two miles away from each other and because customers of one location did not know the customers of the other location, the prices between the two products were highly different.
Ok… Your next sentence is gold always goes up and we’re running out of oil.
Evil,
Isn’t that what companies do now? Some past news reports stated Amazon was charging different prices for a book in different parts of the country (only using Amazon as an example).
You are looking at a price descrimination. Different location in the country means different shipping costs not just for amazon but also for its competition. It makes sense that the -price- of item will be different. It makes no sense that identical goods will be sold right next to each other for different price.
Here is a practical example: There was a time when I needed to buy 8,000 sq. feet panels for raised floors. We found a place in KY where we could get it dirt cheap but we had to deal with shipment. We had a place in the next country that wanted us to pay 3x the price of buying in KY and shipping it for the priviledge of buying the same product from them. The funny part was… it ended up being the same manufacturer that did not figure out his dealer in KY was able to market to customers in PA.
“expansion of money supply is here”
what expansion? The 3 trillion in lost home equity or bear sterns going from 180 to 10 bucks or 1 trillion in bank writedowns?
Umm. From Beltway Banditsville. A friend who is an software developer called. Her employer — a brand name IT house — gave out a general announcement this week. All developer salaries are being “releveled” (not upward). The work is going overseas, so if you want your job, you deal with the global economy and commoditized pay.
“25c a gallon”
Yes indeed. But if you adjust for the inflation in other goods and services, that 25c a gallon would now be maybe between $1 and $2 a gallon. Certainly much less than today’s gas price, but the rhetorical point of calling it 25c a gallon is misleading.
Yeah but…in 1970 I used to work in Las Vegas and drive home to LA when I had time off. I always drove a little 4-banger, a Corvair and then two different VWs. I could fill the tank for less than $3, and the trip was 280 miles. Took one tank..so I drove for a penny a mile. I thought that was pretty amazing, even at the time. A quart of milk, a loaf of bread and a gallon of gas were all about .30.
But I was making good union wages back then too.
He spent his entire career preparing for an economy that no longer exists. He has a big house, a big car, and, often, a big mortgage.
Wow. Well, no actually, I haven’t. I’ve spent the last few years divesting myself of the house and mortgage, paying off the car and CC debt, moving within five miles of work and making sure I can stay within five miles of work.
I can’t say I saw this coming, I just know that after fighting the mortgage/debt fight from 1994 until 2004 I was done.
‘He (American consumer) has a big house, a big car, and, often, a big mortgage.’
Nope. Nope, and….why, nope to that one, too! Hooray! I knew there was a reason I sleep so good. I get happier by the day that I never bought into other people’s versions of being an American consumer.
How come in those Congressional hearings no one asks the Fed chairman why it’s OK for prices to rise as long as wages do not?
It’s OK because some goods are scarce. When people get to the point of substituting their own labor for some of the energy they are using, the free market will have done its job.
i don’t understand why they don’t point out to mr. ben that when prices are only going up then they are no longer “volitile” and should be considered when evaluating the “real” inflation rate.
GM and Carmax taking a tumble.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20080618&id=8796985
Crude climbing again.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-futures-climb-near-136/story.aspx?guid=%7BE5AD6D86%2D0EAB%2D443C%2DA173%2D2DF1068596B2%7D
When it comes to oil prices, what happens here in the U.S. matters less and less each day. Notice that from April to May, even with U.S. sliding deeper into recession, and with oil prices shooting up, the rate of new car sales in China actually INCREASED. Ask yourself why this little tidbit has not been reported in U.S. media.
BEIJING, June 7 (Xinhua) — Passenger car sales in China in the first five months of 2008 rose 17.41 percent over the same period a year earlier, an industry group said on Friday.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), car sales reached 3.02 million units, including 2.23 million sedans, 179,200 sport-utility vehicles (SUV) and 93,200 multi-utility vehicles (MUV) in the period.
Sales of passenger cars, SUV, and MUV in May alone totaled 564,600, up 16 percent over the same month last year. The growth rate was quicker than April’s 11 percent.
Auto sales in China were expected to exceed 10 million units this year, which would represent a full year sales growth of 14 percent, CAAM said. Auto sales have maintained double-digit growth since the beginning of the year, in contrast to weakening sales in much of the world’s other major auto markets.
Do you think China uses those test dummies for their impact data collection or political prisoners working in their automobile factories?
The Chinese Yuan hit another high against the US$ today, although this is not really news as it happens most days.
Chinese drivers are not yet affected by higher oil prices because their government subsidizes it.
The US subsidizes our oil industry.
It saves you about $0.75 per gallon.
The US subsidizes our oil industry. It saves you about $0.75 per gallon.
BFD. What a difference that makes.
I want the gubmint to subsidize gas sales directly so that I can buy regular for $2/gal. No more pussyfootin’ around.
I’ve made the point here before that Beijing alone was adding 1000 vehicles a day to its streets in 2002. It’s got to much higher by now.
More trader shenanigans???
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/morgan-stanley-trading-results-marred/story.aspx?guid=%7B4D5634AA%2DCBB2%2D4231%2DB6CB%2D3197AF89205C%7D
Florida Panhandle (Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton counties)
According to RealtyTrac data:
672 foreclosures / sheriff sales
1,863 preforeclosures
State of Florida:
35,541 foreclosures / sheriff sales
102,165 preforeclosures
Anybody know the probability of a preforeclosure entering foreclosure status?
Thanks.
DataQuick is a good source for that kinda thing.
April ‘08
…Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 32 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent…
100 - 32 = 68%
http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/CA-Foreclosures/RRFor080422.aspx
Recipe for a meltdown.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/five-things-pave-way-downside/story.aspx?guid=%7B07D009FC%2DCFAB%2D4593%2DAB9A%2D89F99CB89727%7D
RE: Meltdown
“It’s critical to remember that the stock market crash didn’t cause the Great Depression, the Great Depression caused the stock market to crash. It was an era, not an event…”
Great perception.
And, futhermore it was only the coming of WW II which ended the era.
YIKES!
I don’t think I agree. Galbraith’s fine book, The Great Crash, is mainly an argument that the crash caused the depression, not the other way around. While I am politically on the opposite side from Galbraith on most issues, I found the argument persuasive.
Monetary policy also stunk back then. Major liquidity issues existed in the early 30’s caused by Fed ineptitude.
What we are on the brink of will make the previous GD look like a vacation in the tropics.
Things aren’t bad yet but I’ve already noticed more people getting CC’s rejected at checkouts and cars stopped in the middle of the road because people are too stupid/poor to pay for the gas to run the things.
What matters now is the US jobs market and the desire for foreign countries to continue to bankroll the gluttonous American lifestyle. Alas I think both are losing bets for the foreseeable future.
I can’t even wrap my head around this. It sounds like some backdoor stuff going on (Monroe County, NY). Is this some sort of weird bailout-stuff-friend’s-pocket-with-cash deal?
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/NEWS01/806190354
Hooooey I need patience. So I did some research on that acre of land nearby that used to be a landscape company. Much easier when you can see what they’ve signed.
400k + Arm mortgage on the place. They probably want at least half a million or more for it. Or it was a take the money and run situation. I’ll just wait for the tax sale, maybe 10 years before the county gets to it. At least I know how to look and where to look to see each years taxes going in arrears.
Crush the commuter day today. I’m not looking forward to it.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/local_news/epaper/2008/06/19/0619dumpthepump.html
Ready for a second career?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/many-workers-their-mid-40s-older/story.aspx?guid=%7BE2AC9280%2D1C09%2D49FF%2DA00D%2D760F687588D5%7D
O.k., I promise this will be a soft generational snipe (o.k., maybe not). But seriously, do boomers hate everything they’re doing? Why do they keep doing it? Only the hallucinogenic generation with come up with something silly like an “encore” career. You want purpose? Undo all of your “progress” of the last 30 years.
You want walkable, then why do you build the suburbs? You want good health care, then don’t be so damn cheap? You want a meaningful career, then why didn’t you get one? You want your steak cooked properly, then WAIT.
Re-define it man, re-define it! You’re going to change the world!!
would, not with…
By the way, to the boomers that I anger here, my apologies. I am overly sensitive because I hear this stuff non-stop in Florida… everywhere I go… all day…
It blows my mind to hear people complain about how crowded Florida is, then they complain that it’s overdeveloped, then they complain about the service, their food, the beach… everything.
Even in high school I gave my parents crap for constantly returning partially used goods to places like Sears and demanding a full refund. They could never make the connection.
Tragedy of the Commons, Boomer-style.
Muggy, boomers did not build the suburbs. I was born in 45 so am a few months older than “boomers” — but I didn’t build the suburbs either. They were built by my parents’ generation, and continued to be built by the parents of boomers. When gas was cheap in the 1980’s, boomers then probably contributed to the expansion of the burbs, although I myself was living in a subway-reachable burb.
While suburbs certainly existed pre-WWII, they were a far different beast than the post-1945 version. The suburbs as we generally conceive of them were first built for the about-to-be Boomers and their parents.
Then the Boomers managed to take poor planning, sprawl, shoddy construction and overdevelopment to a whole new level once they took the reins …
Yeah I have to admit, the suburb I was born in (Eagle Rock Ca) was built at the end of a streetcar line. They were streetcar suburbs back in the day. Then the streetcars went away. But that all went down when we boomers were toddlers.
As for returning used goods for full refund, I am appalled by some of non-boomer people i know who really work the system so they don’t have to pay anything. Target lets you return no questions asked in 90 days. The girlfriend of a friend will get an exercise bike, use it 90 days and return it for a full refund, then get something else.
If she needs to use a digital camera for an event, she’ll “buy” one, use it, and then return it.
With all the dumb stuff Ben prints up for us everyday to laugh at, spoken by non-boomers, it seems like an obssession to blame boomers for everything.
But hearing people like that complain all day would drive me nuts, too, so who knows what I’d be writing here if i was in your shoes.
“Only the hallucinogenic generation ”
O just wait, Muggy, until they start pumping anti-depressants into the drinking water, as part of the Universal Health Care Plan.
Soma for everyone!
“Encore” career? That’s has to be the single best way to say “I didn’t save anything” that I’ve ever heard.
One has to laugh at the retirement fetish this society has - it goes hand in hand with the housing fetish. What are workers supposed to do? Spend the first half of their life fantasizing about retirement - and then spend the second half fantasizing about lost youth?
The simple and inexorable passage of time will be lethal for much of this society - more so than bird flu, OBL, obesity combined.
I’m actually starting out on a second (3rd?) career myself. My little business is very viable economically, but it’s boring the POOP out of me. I’m retraining to become a nurse practioner (I only have to take the nursing specific course, I’ve done everything else except for a 2 level Psych course).
It will take 2.5 years end to end, but I’ll then have a skill I can take anywhere that the wife goes. On top of that, I always wanted a medical career. When I went back to school the first time I retired, I oriented my education towards science and pre-med along with my other major. It’s paying of with the number of classes I don’t have to take. I’m really looking forward to doing this.
Jwite I was talking to the PA and the doc the other day in the ER I take my clinicals in, they were saying there is a doctor shortage coming in the next 5-10 years. They also said that they are looking to grandfather PA’s, Nurse Practitioners, in to doctors. If true it would be the cheapest med school around. Myself I am finishing my RN then off to PA school. Good luck in community health that I hear is as boring as post pardum care.
Sounds very cool, Jwhite. Anecdotally, my dad was in the hospital for most of last year and *every* NP we dealt with went way above and beyond for him. (It was a big contrast to the nurses and doctors, who were much more a mixed bag.)
Thanks to both of you for your comments. I considered both PA and NP tracks. Since I get a major discount for the RN portion of it (courtesy my wife) I decided the NP route was the way to go.
I can also go for and advance NP certificate later which will bring me on par with an acute care PA. I’ve already received two employment offers for when I finish just the RN portion and a “if you don’t contact me when you finish your NP program, I’m gonna…” from a hospital administrator.
You can’t just sit around and wait for the future to come to you, I far prefer to go and find it. On my own terms.
Jwhite,
My mom’s general is a NP. She loves her NP. Wouldn’t have it any other way. She has had MDs and feels she has gotten better treatment from her NP (mom belongs to Kaiser). What impressed her the most about the NP was being able to directly contact the NP without having to go through the Kaiser call center.
As is true with so many things, the fantasy of retirement is much better than the reality.
beg to differ. I have fully embraced the slacker lifestyle and would never go back.
I’m enjoying every day of my retirement (3+ years now) even though I know how it ends. Carpe diem.
So true. If you have money, health, interests and friends, not having to work is a blessing.
“If work is so good for us, how come they have to pay us to do it?”
Anonymous New Zealander
Yeah chick, everytime you make money shorting,
I go shopping. Shop Lite shop often.
I’ve enjoyed my first 3 years of retirement as well. I’m leaving on my morning hike with 2 hounds in tow (or vis-versa) as we speak! I’ll be back!
I’m sure retirement with lots of money is fantastic!
But if someone doesn’t have enough to retire, and is willing to keep working . . .why would anyone have a problem with that? Or maybe some people actually need the structure of a job to stay involved and happy.
I am hoping to have tons of money saved up, but right now it looks like i should expect to work forever. I am not perfect like so many people on this blog. : )
I think working and staying connected, at least keeps you from losing touch with reality like those people Muggy is talking about.
txchick, i thought you worked for yourself, as a day trader . . .although i admit, i know nothing about you . . . so that was an assumption, but it sounds like your definition of slacker lifestyle might be different than some peoples . . .
but congrats on having a life so many would want, by creating your own income and not working for “the man”!
I guess you could say that. It doesn’t seem like work to me.
It doesn’t seem like work to me. Define ‘work’ as anything one does to bring in money, then, including signing checks & CC slips and clicking a mouse to move $ from one of your accounts to another. Babies, the comatose & royalty might be among the few considered unemployed/retired.
“I have fully embraced the slacker lifestyle and would never go back.”
txchick, you’re my hero.
RE: encore careers
About three in 10 Americans “currently in an encore career,” or CEC, are working in education, 23% are working in health care, 16% in government, 13% in non-profit organizations and 9% in for-profit businesses that serve a public good. Most — six in 10 — work 40 hours per week or more and the majority of CECs say they are very satisfied with their jobs.
Phfffffffttttttttt…Whatta crock.
Look at the job content…namby-pamby, touchy-feely tax payer supported do-nothing jobs that produce virtually nothing of material substance. Oooooooo…I’m so comfy!
How come professions like engineers, bridge & highway repairmen, masons, carpenters, loggers, fishermen, shoe makers, farmers, auto ech/assemblyperson, & infantrymen appear on the list?
It’s no wonder we’re being flushed down the socio/economic crapper.
I guess you meant, how come they DON’T appear on the list. And I think the answer is easy. The jobs on your list mostly require physical as well as mental vitality, and are not suitable for retirees. Be glad older people are available to do the govt stuff, their availability may keep it cheaper. But mainly it’s up to voters to keep it cheaper, and/or kill some govt fluff funcs.
Shoe makers? In the US? LOL!
Actually, yesterday I was delighted to see a little photocopied ad for a new shoe repair shop in Rockport TX where I am hanging out this week. The slogan is “Master of 8 trades” and the ad included a list of things the guy could do for repair or renovation of leather and lots of other things. From the blurry photo, I’d say a retired guy.
So nice after my part of Austin, where any remotely useful business is getting driven further out, replaced by overpriced condos, boutiques, and too many high-end sports shops.
My grandfather was a civil engineer. When he retired, he went to work for my cousin (his neice) who ran a private school that took on a bunch of the kids the Boston school system rejected as being too difficult. He taught woodshop to the young ones and started a carpenter’s apprentice program for the older ones. He managed to teach kids who could barely make change how to read a ruler and safely run power tools. The kids decided that he must have a black belt in karate because he wasn’t scared of them, even the ones who were a foot taller than he was.
It was not do nothing, useless or touchy feely.
May he rest in peace.
Polly,
What a grandfather. The kids were lucky to have him.
“…..Infantrymen……”
A buddy a mine decided that they were sending the wrong guys to the Middle East. Instead of sending 18-21 yr olds that had something to live for, they needed to send us 40-something, pissed-off-at-the-world guys with crappy marriages/divorces. Because….
-The killer-instinct is already well ingrained.
-We have nothing to live for.
-As long as the paycheck keeps showing up (no problem……Direct Deposit), the wife and teen-age kids would rather not have us around.
-We need the vacation.
-All the running around dodging bullets and grenades will do us some good.
Funny scenario, but it’s no accident that most grunts are “kids”.
Teens are more easily brainwashed and turned into partisan killing machines, are more physically resilient and, just happen to think they’re bulletproof. That’s been the formula for building armies throughout history.
My father’s an engineer. He’s 82 and on his second encore career. The first was as a consultant. He’s now a partner in a company that he and three colleagues started in ‘01.
“Phfffffffttttttttt…Whatta crock.”
“Look at the job content…namby-pamby, touchy-feely tax payer supported do-nothing jobs that produce virtually nothing of material substance. Oooooooo…I’m so comfy!”
“How come professions like engineers, bridge & highway repairmen, masons, carpenters, loggers, fishermen, shoe makers, farmers, auto ech/assemblyperson, & infantrymen appear on the list? ”
Um, it is due to the fact that the suvey DEFINED an encore career so that it excluded people who work as assemblypersons, fishermen, etc.
(From the description of the survey, http://www.civicventures.org/publications/surveys/encore_career_survey/Encore_Survey.pdf, which I urge you NOT to look at since it is a really huge pdf file):
“The 9.5 percent [of workers 40 to 77, given phone or internet survey] who meet the broader definition: either say the description of an encore career is what they do or currently work 15 hours of more per week for a salary or stipend, have a job a non-profit, government agency, or at an entity that they say is more focused on ’serving the public good’ than on making a profit…., describe themselves as retired but still working…”
For instance, a Civil Engineer who designed dams or bridges for a private company would be excluded by definition.
===============
The usual moral: don’t try to make any sense out of suvey data unless you have read the survey and the sampling methodology
Pensacola, Fl
Why do people post their house on craigslist and only include one picture - of the bathroom? Is that the best view of the property they can find to take a picture of? Makes no sense to me.
http://pensacola.craigslist.org/rfs/724782800.html
Probably because the crack neighborhood surrounding the property wouldn’t be too photogenic! (those bullet holes in the walls probably not a selling point either)
follow the link.. there’s 14 photos.
http://www.servingpensacola.com/viewall.html?mlsid=109-352593
kinda nice.. fair sized lot .. rooms seem small.
“Great location” to do some business.
For the same reason they advertise vacation rentals in the city where they live, instead of the location of their rental. What is a greater than assumed amount of stupidity.
Good stuff, the monolines no longer want to be rated… Imagine that?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ambac-asks-fitch-withdraw-ratings/story.aspx?guid=%7BC8438718%2D09C4%2D44BA%2D886B%2DEB3A092C8D5F%7D
Banks are SQUEEZING customers for more fees.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/basics/2008-06-17-bank-fees_N.htm
This is why I feel more at home with credit unions than banks.
We got hit with a $20 fee for depositing a Canadian check (even though it was drawn in American dollars). When we challenged it, they refunded the fee with absolutely no hassles whatsoever. CUs are not-for-profit, so no skin off their backs.
I forgot who was stating the real worry was commercial slowdown as it was much bigger than all the residential. Seems that turkey is coming home to roost with a 70% slowdown…and with commercial slowdown I think you next have to infer jobs as well…yow.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-commre19-2008jun19,0,2024625.story
Lahde has a fund against com too, yes?
Damn!
It’s pretty evident the other RE shoe is dropping, but what machinations will the Fed pull to try to get around this? Provide a funding vehicle for REITs? I would not be surprised.
It’s not evident where I live.
The just broke ground of 7 million sq feet of warehouse space near me.
In the fall, they break ground on a new outlet mall 2 miles from me.
Ground breaks next Spring on a new outdoor shopping complex (a new town center style shopping district).
Ground breaks Fall/Spring on a new housing development, with 3,000 homes planned.
I-75 is being widened from 6 lanes to 8 lanes between Cincinnati & Dayton.
New interstate interchanges are being added.
Roads are being widened.
It’s developement/development/development as far as you can drive on a tank of gas!!!
Lets wait and see how much is actual built over the next few years. The warehouse projects is starting with less than 700,000 sq. ft., the new outdoor shopping complex is still trying to get its plans together with no signed tenants and the housing development still is not off the ground. The outlet mall is the only item that is a given at this time.
One of the problems with commercial construction and construction loans is: Once you are approved for the loan, you must follow through with the construction or you are in default.
Some of these current construction projects were approved 3 yrs ago and construction is just starting.
Another thing that is showing up is banks overlending for commercial.
I borrow $40MM, the bank writes up $45MM; when I cannot pay my loan payment, the bank takes it out of the reserve set up. Technically I am not in default. Reality is I am BK.
It is very difficult to read the ‘dark matter’ in bank statements.
There were plans to build some monstrosity here called “Grand Central”. The developer quietly announced the other week that it is being delayed. I’m guessing that it will never see the light of day. Its not even mentioned in the Centerra website anymore. DOA!
I used to work at a GM plant in Norwood (encircled by the ‘Nati, for those geographicallly challenged), sanding GM Camaros one summer. It’s old news that that manufacturing rusted for the most part in the city, where I grew up. Fine town, place to grow up, place to leave, place to visit in adulthood.
I woudn’t be so sure of all those groundbreakings. Some parts have developed rapidly, but the city looks the same every time I visit; maybe a new ballpark here and there, but neighborhoods mostly frozen in time. I have the same feeling of “sameness” when I visit a tiny hamlet called Underhill Center, Vt., where I vacationed as a kid, which sho’ hasn’t changed much, though the New Yorkers and Bostonites got their second homes built - usually where you can’t see ‘em.
Anyway, it is hard to imagine Cinti. exploding with umpteen million square feet of useable commercial space.
IMHO.
I only get back there four times a year or so, so I could be wrong.
Very nice to see a post from what I consider my hometown, so thanks.
is SRS a viable way to play a commercial slowdown or is it too “derivative”?
in other words, my understanding is that SRS is primarily REITs — a slowdown in construction or tanking in value of commercial lots seems like it might take a few years to wind into rents being severely impacted (don’t the leases usually go for 3 to 5 years?)
Granted there are some “issues” with mom and pops drying up and blowing away, but wouldn’t the FED pushing rates down to battle the “deflation” bug-a-boo just make the crap REIT returns look more attractive and offset this?
I pray we can get a good discussion going on this because I’m struggling with any way to “profit” from a commercial melt-down other than SRS which has the aforementioned “issues”.
Is there a lender or two primarily focused on commercial we should be shooting at?
Thanks for all thoughts.
A couple of large local school districts are starting to pay the price for investing in CDO’s 2 years ago:
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=763770
Futures rising a little ahead of employment reports, what if they miss the predictions? I think it’ll be a massive slide if they do. People are getting pretty jittery. Around here, the wealthiest people in town asked me to get them the phone number for Treasury Direct (they’re elderly and don’t really Google too well) so they could pile their bucks into T-Bills. They’re wealthy enough so a 2-3% yield is a pile of cash. Wonder how many similar types are doing the same?
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/futures-higher-ahead-jobless-claims-manufacturing-survey/
It’s interesting how Americans flock to T-Bills, as if they have a special immunity against any sort of financial pain, somehow?
With T-bills you’re guaranteed to get your money back.
What it will be worth when you get it back is another question but T-bills aren’t going to “break the buck”.
Sounds like the theory behind Tsarist Bonds, a T-Bill of another time & place.
OV raises hand.
Dodd
http://connpolitics.tv/index.php/2008/06/18/dodd-and-ct-residents-speak-out
Meanwhile, Jim, a talk show caller, added, “This man is the chairman of the Senate Banking Commission and he says he doesn’t know that he got a good deal? Then he’s incompetent, he should step down from his position immediately.”
Exactly!
i’ll lay ya 5 to 3 the dems cut him loose..
No way, the Dems never cut their leadership loose, they keep them around for as long as the sheeple re-elect them.
Best Example is Teddy Kennedy (sure hope he’s doing OK) who had a driving accident on a bridge how many decades ago???
William Jefferson (D) of LA who had how many thousands $$ of cash discovered in his freezer during one of the hurricanes.
Nope, the electorate has to de-elect them before the Dems leave office.
i dunno about that.. we do have this election coming up..
The campaign rhetoric is boiling down to housing, foreclosures, job loss, recession and spreading it’s tentacles into mortgage fraud.. lenders.. and Mr. Banking Committee Dodd, supposedly oblivious to accepting a most profitable “favor” from a bank (?!) is putting the ’stupid’ in the it’s-the-economy-stupid. He is a problem..
The Press has really picked up on this. It has legs.
After you define “cut him loose”, I think I’ll want a piece of this action!
“Sorry, officer… I didn’t realize I was speeding!”
Result: ticket
“Sorry, citizens, I didn’t realize I was getting special favors!”
Result: sux to be Senator Dodd
Did that URL misspell “conpolitics”?
Greetings from Walt Disney World, Florida! Hotels here are 100% booked! (I tried to change my reservation and discovered there are no rooms available on property anywhere at any price.)
Anyway, that’s not the point of my post.
The point of my post is the big story on the first page of the Business Section of USA Today (which I only read when I get it in a hotel).
It seems that SHOPLIFTING is way up! The story cites rising prices, ease of selling on the internet, and lack of staff on retail floors as the causes. And it’s not just professional rings doing it. Ordinary folk are stealing their baby formula….
“Greetings from Walt Disney World, Florida! Hotels here are 100% booked!”
Florida is chock-full of foreigners right now. I myself have been shocked at the amount of people cramming the International Mall in Tampa during the week! It really is hard to wrap my mind around what I’m seeing at the moment. I don’t say they’re buying homes, but they sure seem to be buying lots of crap at the stores.
same thing in nyc malls
went to macy’s yesterday herald square flagship store
nothing but euros and asians all with suitcases to to stuff their half priced crap into
disclosure-i bought nothing
It’s tourist season in Chicago, too, and I’ve encountered a number of French (at retail stores), Germans (on the train, and at a sporting goods store), Italians (at a bar, watching World Cup games) and Japanese (at Wrigley Field, and buying vintage from my friends).
Still seeing a lot of American tourists here as well, but a lot of them appear to be fellow Midwesterners.
You mean Euro 2008 Games. The next World Cup isn’t until 2010 in, gulp!, South Africa.
Oh, I thought they were qualifying rounds for World Cup.
At any rate, the Italians must’ve been happy with the win over the Frenchies.
Thanks for the info.
Burglaries are up 47% in Tuscaloosa - probably for the same reason.
Paging Dr. Hiaasen, emergency in Central Florida, bring your Ninja/Nurse-freak repelling scrubs!!
http://www.local6.com/news/16639728/detail.html
http://www.local6.com/news/16646307/detail.html
http://www.local6.com/news/16622891/detail.html
http://www.local6.com/news/16633684/detail.html
“Several men dressed in ninja costumes forced people into a cooler at gunpoint during the fourth robbery of a Central Florida drug store in a week.”
The “No Income, No Job & Assets” gang strikes again…
LOL
The big theft here in our county in Ohio is catalitic converters. Being cut out of vehicles right and left for the platinum.
Last night I placed my leaking, dead water heater out by the curb for the city sanitation people to pick up. A junk scavenger got it before the city could. What is a defunct water heater worth, anyway?
Update! Just spoke to a woman who told me her building (condos) are now more than 50% empty. In Celebration (Disney’s planned community). Imagine how the developments way out in Lake or Polk county are doing….
Machado worried that cracking down on mortgage bankers and brokers could dry up credit and “restrict the accessibility to home loans for the very people” lawmakers were trying to help.
Do you think he really believes these no-money-down teaser-rate adjustable mortgage that quickly reset to 9% interest, charge 15K in fees rolled into the mortgage, and $35K prepayment penalty…..make housing accessible?
I know these are called “affordability products” by the Industry, but if Machado was paying attention, he’d know that these were 50% of the problem. (The other 50% being home equity loans)
apologies if this has been posted before
Cramer crying in ny mag
http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/47823/
Fed laying plans to allow investment banks funds access after September.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a39BEBzB.enA&refer=home
Quotable
“This is worse than the S&L crisis. This is the first time - this is the worst credit bubble we’ve ever had in American history. No - ever in American history have people been able to buy a house with no money down, never. That’s never happened anytime in the world. So, we have the worst credit bubble. It’s going to take a long time to work its way out. You don’t cure a bubble in five or six months… It takes five or six years.”
Jim Rogers, November 6, 2007 (Bloomberg interview with Kathleen Hays)
LOL. I’d tell him to check out the “Epic Credit Bubble” (Russ Winter’s) thread on SI which goes back several years before that. That’s how I found this blog. We have been bitching about all this since about 2001
Didn’t VA loans let people buy with no down?
Yes, but with a caveat, you have to pay a 1-3 % fee, depending on whether you’ve had a VA loan before and you have to come come up with a couple grand in closing costs - Which I believe you can roll into your loan. The maximum loan amount is 240K if I remember.
Thanks, I always wondered about that.
I knew vets back in the day who never used the benefit. It wasn’t that big a deal to them.
RE: That’s never happened anytime in the world. So, we have the worst credit bubble. It’s going to take a long time to work its way out. You don’t cure a bubble in five or six months… It takes five or six years.”
If it’s never happened anytime in the world…who is to say it will take ONLY “five or six years” to restore financial order.
My guess is that this is a disaster of generational scope and dimension directly related to the economics of the demographic bulge of 80 million baby boomers.
Things will never be the same after this Nazi-esque looting of the public domain.
Obama and McCain Spout Economic Nonsense By KARL ROVE
“Messrs. Obama and McCain both reveal a disturbing animus toward free markets and success. It is uncalled for and self-defeating for presidential candidates to demonize American companies. It is understandable that Mr. Obama, the most liberal member of the Senate, would endorse reckless policies that are the DNA of the party he leads. But Mr. McCain, a self-described Reagan Republican, should know better.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121383441884986739.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
as long as they demonize hedge funds and private equity funds, that’s okay with me
Ah, how foolish of me. Of course he addressed that.
Oil and gas companies made $86.5 billion in profits last year. At the same time, the financial services industry took in $498.5 billion in profits,
Where’s the outrage on that one? Where did those 500B in profits come from? Mortgage securities and commodity speculation?
If only Fred Thompson hadn’t been a cardboard cutout of a candidate that showed up late, he could have saved the country.
(pulls tongue out of cheek)
now, you may want to pull head out of ass
He had a good re-run, while it lasted.
Like everything else, those profits came out of our pockets! What I’d really like to know:
1) How much the governmental agencies made? Or, if oil and gas industries made $86.5 billion in the last year, how much did the state and federal government’s make?
2) How much did Hollywood make in the last year?
1. 15% is the number I hear
2. Yes, amazing isn’t it that we never hear any calls for windfall profits taxes on Tom Cruise or Barbara Streisand.
1. Forbes Magazine is usually publishing figures like 22%. Admittedly, they have an ax to grind. (But so do I.)
Jeez. tx, could you provide a source for those figures? I want my friends to have to take seriously my raving on that.
I wonder if Karl’s been taking any dance lessons since bailing out of the “Yale school of cheer-leading” Administration
“The entrepreneur is “the pivot on which everything turns,” Schumpeter argued, and “proceeds by competitively destroying old businesses.”
He forgets to mention what happens when “Other Parties”… with “Power & Influence” …don’t want “new competition”: Anybody out there have a “Windows based” computer?
“During the trouble Tucker faced while trying to promote his car and get it into production, he claimed that the “Big Three” automakers were deliberately attempting to sabotage his efforts, through the influence of Detroit Senator Homer Ferguson, who is commonly held responsible for initiating the SEC’s pursuing of Tucker’s business.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Tucker_Sedan
Jobless numbers in.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBA58D814%2DFF6B%2D4948%2D9F9F%2DD9B564F29806%7D&siteid=mktw
Don’t know if you saw this but they were able to come to bipartisan agreement yesterday on the extension of unemployment benefits, which really is the a stimulative measure IMO. They compromised on a requirement that people getting the extension have worked at least 20 weeks prior to filing for unemployment (no problem with that) and in excising the provision to give another 13 weeks (26 total) to people in higher unemployment states.
I’m suspicious of any of these stats. As I recall, if you factor in “discouraged” workers, the actual rate of unemployment is close to 10%. Add in the welfare and disability crowd (34% of non-disabled people and 30% of total workforce respectively here where I live) and the total number must be pushing 20%.
I know many of the folks here go to high unemployment payment states up North, work the minimum, get themselves laid off somehow, then collect the bennies till they have to go back. One individual has funded quite a nice spread here by doing this in multiple states.
Here in WNC the good old mountain folks know how to game the system. Everybody complains about jobs but nobody shows up for work. They work the required time and then get fired to go collect the government checks. The best thing government could do for the economy (at least in this area) would be to cut back on all the benefits and force the bums to go out and work.
Sounds like what my aunt had to deal with when she worked at a resort in Vermont. When people showed up on time, ready to work, it was newsworthy.
Northern Arizona suffers from it, too. When I moved here in `99 every potential employer, when they found out I was from “back east”, was eager to hire me.
Shows up every day–on time–what a concept!
California has 14-million workers and a population of 40-million plus.
HUH!? How is that possible? Got any info/statistics to back this up?
(And if this is true, I wonder if illegal immigration has skewed these numbers any, since an illegal immigrant probably wouldn’t be reported as a “employee” anywhere, in which case we have a whole underground system of people working but not being reported to the government as such).
Not sure where rms got his numbers spacepest. Got these from the CA labor
Labor Market Information for California Data Archives Current Data
For the Month of April 2008
Civilian Labor Force (seasonally adjusted) 18,384,200
Employment (seasonally adjusted) 17,247,000
Unemployment (seasonally adjusted) 1,137,200
Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) 6.2%
Total Nonfarm Industry Employment (seasonally adjusted) 15,162,300
Average Hourly Wage in 2007 - First Quarter $21.78
Here’s the link that provided the information:
http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/Quick_Statistics.htm
Here’s the link for CA population: http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-4_2001-07/
When you click on the E-4 Population Estimates this will open into a spreadsheet.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/18/AR2008061802634.html
“I believe the federal government should create a firewall to prevent too great a fall in housing prices. It is important to go beyond the legislation that is about to be enacted by the Senate, which would help some homeowners who have negative equity but would not do anything to forestall the growth of this problem. This can best be done through a program of mortgage replacement loans.”
Why is it that normally sane people completely lose their minds when it comes to falling house prices?
Assuming the financial system is currently vulnerable to the potential for an unlimited number of future walk-aways, his idea makes sense to me.
..the primary purpose of the mortgage replacement loans: reducing the amount of non-recourse mortgage debt..
wow, a commie professor- has he sent in his check yet ?
What happened to the Feldstein proposal to build a firewall to prevent homes from getting too overvalued? Oh — there was no such proposal… never mind!
This proposal does nothing to prevent prices falling.. He’s just fishing for FB’s.
The bait is a low interest govt loan for up to 25% of the value. The hook is it’s non-recourse. The non-recourse means they dont just get up and walk when their mortgage debt turns upside down.
it’s actually quite ingenious, imho, and appears to be deceptive enough to work. After all, it snagged a couple people already.
I’m confused; if the loan is non-recourse then the borrower has less incentive to stick around for the whole term as the lender can’t attach any other assets.
i screwed up.. too many conversations going on at once..
It would be a full-recourse loan that would have to be repaid regardless of what happens to the borrower’s mortgage or home.
substitute full for non
This guys is a freaking idiot.
Consumers would have to be BRAIN-DEAD to substitute a recourse loan for a non-recourse loan.
He’s basically advocating that the govt bribe people into agreeing to be locked into their houses. That would only help the market freeze up and prolong the pain.
Normally rational — leave it to the free market.
Lose their minds — uh oh, the market is creating a result that favors the non-rich and younger generations.
Does not compute! Does not compute! Error! Error!
Props to NYCdj. I think this was his idea
http://shoppingblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/06/california-gay-marriages-for-r.html
In Yahoo news - where’s NYCityBoy, he’d LOVE this:
NEW YORK - Two former Bear Stearns managers have been arrested, federal authorities said Thursday, becoming the first executives to face criminal charges related to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.
Matthew Tannin was taken into custody outside his New Jersey home on Thursday morning and Ralph Cioffi was arrested at his New York City home, the FBI said.
Club Fed is fun for a week, but extended stays tend to be less so.
Is that Matthew “Biff” Tannin?
Backwardation To The Future
The indictments, according to the Journal, will cite a personal email exchanged between Tannin and Cioffi, suggesting that the funds they had invested in - mostly complex bond securities - was “toast.” It was four days from the date of the first e-mail to when Cioffi and Tannin informed investors not to worry.
Tannin, in an April 22nd, 2007 e-mail to Cioffi’s private account, suggested that they explore shutting down the accounts. Cioffi’s response was a suggestion to meet in private to discuss the concerns, according to the Journal.
Still, four days after the “toast” e-mail, Tannin told fund investors that he was “quite comfortable” with their holdings, according to the Journal. Cioffi echoed Tannin’s sentiment when talking with his investors.
Would you want someone managing your funds that’s stupid enough to put facts like that in an email that can be traced?
lmao, they never learn, do they.. jeebus
nyc boy is at the perp walk and will return shortly with photos of said crooks
Complete with colorful and biting commentary I’m sure!
from Bloomberg
U.S. prosecutors are focusing on an e-mail sent by the two suggesting that their funds were headed for trouble, four days before they told investors they were comfortable with their holdings..
will people never learn about the insideous nature of email..
Small fish pulled in to give the impression something is being done.
RE: The generational future of the US…
So much for all those $80k per year guidance counselors…
http://wbztv.com/local/gloucester.high.school.2.751873.html
Someone has to carry on trying to pass out birth control to minors without parental knowledge like the two who resigned…might as well be them.
Sarcasm off.
And I thought that stuff like this only went on in Indiana. Seriously, stories like this one doesn’t even make the news here because it’s so common.
Who is going to be in charge of convincing seniors to get a 4 yr humanities degree?
Oprah?
Credit cards cutting lines of credit…including Peter Schiff’s.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121383214440886577.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_pj
It’s starting to rain and bankers are taking back their umbrellas as the Great Unwind rolls on.
Cash …
“Way down upon a Black Swan River, far far away…
That’s where my heart is dreamin’ ever blah blah blah blah.’
Oh my, the actual lyrics are quite atrocious:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Folks_at_Home#Lyrics
boa just increased my limit which i use maybe 3% monthly for the miles i get (and never ever carry a balance)
good thing i have a few scheckles
go figure cash is en vogue
I noticed the visa I have, and rarely use, has dropped my rate from 12.5% to 11.9 to 10.5 to 9.5 to 8.9 over the last 5 months. Wonder if they’re pursuing low risk customers with declining rates to tempt them to use their cards. In all the years I’ve never had a cc that lowered the rate without my calling first.
I get 0% down for 6 months “checks” from Shittibank weekly now.
I should charge them for the shredding costs.
I hate those “convenience checks.” It should be illegal to send them out unsolicited. I have to look for them and shred them.
“Wonder if they’re pursuing low risk customers with declining rates to tempt them to use their cards.”
That would be my bet. The credit card industry is geared up to handle credit card users; Without cc users they go out of business.
But CC receivables are hard to pass off to suckers downstream via CDOs because the CDO market is frozen, thus the CC industry, because they have to keep these receiveables, has suddenly gotten religion and actually care if their customers are solvent.
So the marketing focus goes to the customers offering the least amout of risk.
I’m not sure what my credit line is on my card, but it is a huge multiple of the amount I ever have on it, since it gets paid off automatically out of checking every month. I did not request it.
Now let’s say you have a customer who has used the card the same way for 20 years. Why would he suddenly borrow $20K or so? No good reason. So why the massive credit line?
It doesn’t make any sense.
“It doesn’t make any sense.”
It does make sense if you think there might be a possibility somebody like you will suddenly need a massive credit line. Remember, it doesn’t cost the credit card folks a dime to extend your credit line. Not a dime. But there’s always the remote chance that you, or somebody like you, will need to tap this line. These are the folks the CC companies are targeting.
All of this is JMHO, of course.
From GJSentinel dot com:
“People turning to pedal power as a way to deal with today’s sky-high fuel costs might want to consider buying that new bicycle sooner rather than later. Bike makers and retailers are set to pass along their rising costs to consumers with higher prices for bikes and accessories.
Bike shops in Grand Junction and nationwide are predicting their costs will increase 10 to 20 percent, with several bike shops seeing a hike in bike prices foreseeing for 2009 models.
“Pretty much everything we’re going to see for the next year, from what I understand, is going to be about 20 to 25 percent more,” said Brian Miick, owner and manager of the Bike Shop, 1060 North Ave., which carries 270 bikes at any given time. “The cost of rubber is going up, the cost of metal is going up, the cost of transporting it is going up. The catalogs that were printed and sent out in January are pretty much obsolete.”
Happy to report I got my new bike with car carrier and all I need last year when prices were low. BTW, the Specialized Cruiser is great for both on and off road, though not a serious MTB. It was only $350 when I got it, no idea what it goes for now. I got it for cruising around town or on smoother dirt roads.
So lost,
whats the status on the university job? Were you able to work out an employment package covering possibly subsidized rent or car/gas expenses?
Wouldn’t want our own “Indiana Jones” to disappear.
lol
It’s still in the works, not sure what to do, I posted below. But if I take it, I’ll still be around to plague everyone with my irrelevant comments, not to worry, I can waste time with the best of them, even when I’m “working.” LOL
lost,
And I, at least, expect it. A little humanity never hurt anyone. There should be more human interest stories about what the bloggers are going through. The good and bad decisions (after the fact) as a result of the decisions based on their personal experiences.
Wish you and everyone the best. We will be/are shooting the curl. (I think I heard that somewhere on the beaches of So.CA.
lol
Go Burros!
I have noticed that some bike shops in northern California have raised prices on bikes in just the last few weeks.
Up $50, $75 or $100 - depending on original price, model and type. I thought this was unusual, since around this time of year or a little later in the season, bicycle shops are typically lowering prices to move them… (though I suppose I could be mistaken with that impression).
I was a youngster at the time, but the raising of prices immediately reminded me of the late 1970’s.
You can get good deals on bikes via Craigslist. Or via bicycle swap meets. There are two bike swaps in Tucson every year.
Very ODD observation locally-
Retail diesel fuel FELL 10cents a gallon. That right. Declined.
fuel surcharges north of 50% on all trucks
and close to 30% on all rails
Today: UPS Freight quote to ship a palletized BlackDiamond from TX to PA came as: $680 + 37% fuel surcharge.
It’s up to 4.89 around here now. Also saw it at 5.13 on the NY turnpike last weekend, though that shouldn’t surprise where they’ve gotcha coming and going.
Was wondering if this was just a short term bump up, or maybe the canary in the coal mine so to speak for the rest of the country:
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/BUSINESS06/806190381
Had not looked at this until now (SKF daily). Wow, lovely reverse head and shoulders at that 89-90 bottom. It has fufilled the move from that though and is at some resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=skf
Hamzei folks emailed yesterday and are looking for one more shakeout of weak longs before “blast off”. That would fit with my loose thesis that there will be a rally of sorts in the summer which will be the big chance to get short.
Film at 11.
Keep posting txchick. I am grateful.
Hedge fund chief warns of worse to come
By Ben White and Francesco Guerrera in New York and Henny Sender in Monaco
“…John Paulson, president of Paulson & Co, who made billions for himself and his investors by anticipating the subprime meltdown, said mortgage-related losses for troubled financials could be $1,300bn, compared with writedowns so far of $380bn, which suggests that shares of these institutions could fall further.
“The housing market shows no signs of stabilising and the problems will spread to other areas, including non-residential construction and consumer spending,” Mr Paulson said at a conference in Monaco. ….”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e935eac-3d31-11dd-bbb5-0000779fd2ac.html
talking his book
hey chick,
watchin NVDA come back from 25 to 19?
whats it gonna be folks.. playing computer games at the hacienda or is the game box bubble just about done?
lol, Put him on Oprah.
At least he made more moneys than all the money center banks last year.
yeah bfd, we could have too if someone would write us some custom derivatives.
Not impressed. Any idiiot could have seen this coming.
For all the economists out there,
I am confused about macro-economics. It does not make any sense how the world’s standard of living can be raised. I have heard a number of potiential solutions to America’s problems as follows:
1. Greater GDP due to efficiency(less labor imput per dollar of output)
2. Education will propel the world to a higher standard of living.
I may be spit-balling here, but these solutions work on an individual level(micro level) in that you can command a greater income than another, but it makes no sense in a closed system (global). It appears to be a “relative” issue and not absolute.
With regard to the issue of efficiency of production (labor vs. output) This also appears to be relative from an individual standpoint. Theoretically, with ever increasing efficiency, no one would be needed to work, because all production would be automated. So who will have the income to purchase these items.
Sorry to drop these heavy issues in your laps, but it appears that these questions are not being asked and answered.
O well, have a nice day from a “boomer”.
The Solow growth model claims that economic growth is produced either exclusively by efficiency improvement or capital accumulation. Note: efficiency is considered as impacting all factors of production, not just labor.
“Theoretically, with ever increasing efficiency, no one would be needed to work, because all production would be automated. So who will have the income to purchase these items.”
In this theoretical scenario in which labor has been entirely eliminated, all income will be earned by returns on capital, land, and any other factor of production. In other words, the return on capital from production provides the income necessary to purchase the goods produced.
So Walt526,
so what happens to the labors (95% of the population)? Will 5% of the population be willing to buy 100% of the goods and services produced by a totally automated production system? By the way, what happens to the remaining 95%?
Do the govt ( I persume) take the stock and distribute among all the population so that they can purchase goods and servides?
Can they sell their shares or will they have an absolute right like life and liberty to keep those shares with out selling them?
I suspect all difficult questions, however I do not think that it is not to early to start asking the questions.
Just a stupid person “full of questions with no answers”.
Nah, you just send the now redundant workers to the new shower facility you had built especially for them…. by them….
“It does not make any sense how the world’s standard of living can be raised.”
How many hours a day did your great grandparents spend out in the fields, tending their crops and flocks of livestock?
How many hours a day do you spend doing the same? How about your neighbors, or the average American?
And if you had the choice, would you rather live your current lifestyle, high fuel prices and all, or revert to a world where many folks worked from 4am straight through the evening to put food on the table (my grandparents included)?
Now as to whether the world’s standard of living can be raised, a tricky measurement problem arises, which is how do you know when the world’s standard of living has risen as a whole? For instance, the world’s economic base is currently supporting somewhere north of 6bn people, but the income disparity is huge, with many of these folks living in abysmal poverty and a few with more money than they have time to spend. Is this a wealthier world than that of two-hundred years ago, when the population was much smaller and labor hour requirements for basic subsistence needs much higher on average even in relatively wealthy countries, but nature’s bounty was far less overstretched by a burgeoning population?
Bill Ackman Was Right: MBIA, Ambac on `Ratings Cliff’ (Update1)
By Christine Richard
Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ayw26W322L2A&refer=home
The headline says it all
say good night Merril, Citigroup, Bank America et al
this market has that “hedge fund going out of business and everyone else front running them” feel.
there will be a long trade in here soon. A good one.
Thank you for shooing me away from SIRI.
Is XM going to turn into dust?
Have no idea……maybe tx and hoz can enlighten.
IMHO - and really mean my humble opinion - XM is a dead industry. There is better technology available that does more than XM/Sirius ever could do.
The premise of success in XM is the subscription of dollars/mo when many cities are going wireless internet and there are more available channels, music and news on the internet. The technology is available.
The same is true for over air radio/tv broadcasts. obsolete.
This does not mean they will not make money, it just has little growth prospects.
When there’s good news and the stock doesn’t react or sells off, stay away until the other shoe drops which it now has.
Yeah, I guess I can use xm as just another tax deduction.
hoz,
whats your take on SOV.
it appears as though Relation Investors is going back in with aggressive buying when its under 8.50. Whitworth was the DC point man for Pickens back in the 80’s….sits on the board of HD,Sprint, and SOV.
Build it, call em, and loan em dough.
The risk is SOVs home loans. $19B is a lot of money to burn through. It is trading at 70% of book (maybe), book value in a falling market falls. Look at penn Central in the ’70s. The stock was trading at 10% of book and they went through book in less than 6 months.
There is no bank in the US that I would have stock ownership. There are probably some good banks. It is not worth my time and efforts to weed through the drek, when there are more profitable ways to make money.
US financial institutions are not going to be making moneys for 5 years - at the earliest. And they will never make moneys like they did from 2002 -2007 (Until some mope comes up with a new CDO type of scam).
Wall Street Lobbies to Protect Speculative Oil Trades
“…In a pair of lengthy and sometimes testy closed-door sessions in the Senate last week, executives from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, two of Wall Street’s largest investment banks, made the case that their multibillion-dollar investments in energy contracts have not led to higher oil prices. Rather, they told Democratic staff members of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee that the trades allow international markets to operate efficiently and that the run-up in oil prices results not from speculation but from actual imbalances of supply and demand.
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But the executives were met with skepticism and occasional hostility. “Spare us your lecture about supply and demand,” one of the Democratic aides said, abruptly cutting off one of the executives, according to a staff member in the room. …”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/18/AR2008061802732.html?sid=ST2008061801397
Spare me from the tyranny in Washington.
Has anyone heard from byeFl? Has he moved to NW,PA was that Oil City?
What about the jetson_boy, is he still in Bay Area ? Has he moved to TN or Austin?
By Martin Feldstein
A Home Price Firewall
“…I believe the federal government should create a firewall to prevent too great a fall in housing prices. It is important to go beyond the legislation that is about to be enacted by the Senate, which would help some homeowners who have negative equity but would not do anything to forestall the growth of this problem. This can best be done through a program of mortgage replacement loans. …”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/18/AR2008061802634.html
no comment
They can put what ever floor they want under the price of houses, but with the tightning of credit criteria, the fact that home prices will not always go up and stagent wages will result in no one willing or able to purchase a home.
So we end up with a frozen market. Nothing moves/trades.
Just got to love it! All these interests that want to maintain this housing market price level will in the end be cutting their own throats.
No sale of homes, then no sales commission to agents, no fees to the brokers, no taxes to the state. Mortgage holders end up walking away. jingle keys.
With what “reserves” will they achieve this goal?
Where are the trillions that will not cause the dollar to collapse instantaneously?
Faster,
I am getting an uneasy feeling of impending doom! I am starting to hear from what HBBers and now alternate news sources (and RBS) talking about a total collapse of the economic system. I guess this is where the “ground moves under your feet” and the world has changed?
For us in SO. CA, this is an analogy that we understand.
not/lol
Fast,
I really get nervous when the FED/TREASURY wants additional powers for something that they tells us will not happen(serious investment bank failures).
“Paulson Calls for Clarifying Ways to Shut Down Investment Banks
By Rebecca Christie
Enlarge Image/Details
June 19 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson joined Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair in calling for bank regulators to have clear procedures for dealing with a failing investment bank.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQC3cro1Ep1o&refer=home
This is starting to get scary and Halloween is 4 months away!
I guess it’s no longer very funny!!!
I do not know where they could get the money, Faster. All I am saying is that it wouldn’t make any difference in the future for two reasons. The homeowner will not over commit on mortgages/prices because they the homes are not guaranteed to increase in value and the investors will not invest, because of the fraud in the mortgages.
just an opinion.
Dang! I was expecting to see the Market up by triple digits after my walk. It’s down, wonder what gives? Reality and the Law of Gravity maybe?
Philly Fed, look at the prices paid.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/phil.htm
A strong negative correlation it appears…
You didn’t walk far enough today.
Hmmm. maybe you have a point there… It was a very mild 70 degrees for this morning’s walk which is pretty cool around here. The number of homes on the market (both with signage and surreptiously) has increased to 19 in the immediate local area with several just “empty”.
You have to stop taking those morning walks. You are single-handedly causing the stock market to crash!
P.S. A 12,000 PPT floor on the DJIA seems to have been triggered…
Mr Market seems determined to stress-test the floor.
Been playing with it all morning long. Seems to be some strong support (desperation perhaps) at the 12K level.
Few points under @ 11997…
It really appears that someone on high decided to put a PPT floor in place at DJIA=12K around the beginning of 2007. Not sure how one would check on this possibility (tinfoil hat is very tingly today!)…
Tee hee PPT…
June 19, 2008 2:23 P.M.ET
BULLETIN
Stocks swing from plus to minus and back again
Mixed up signals and prices
Blue chips scramble around 12,000 mark as investors try to sort out falling oil prices, drop in health-related stocks and struggling banks.
Txc: Any advice to a n00b taking an absolute beating on SIRI today (and in general)? I mean, the obvious advice is “make sure to have sold your stock before this happens”. But seeing as I failed to heed that advice fast enough… double down? Pitch it now and take the beating? Wait for it to recover a few points and then pitch it?
Ow. Goldman Sachs is not my friend.
I’m long 50K shares at 2 bucks (Blano can confirm that, emailed him when I did it a few minutes ago). IMO this crappage is so they can all unwind their arbitrages and cover shorts.
This is NOT advice to buy the stock. I love buying train wrecks like this.
I’m long 300 shares at $5.05. Heh.
First stock purchase with a tax refund. Figured it was free money so I’d speculate. N00b!
Still, for the price, I’ve learned a lot more than that much money on courses in trading would have taught me. Pain is a good instructor.
Well, I dumped half at 2.10 and will stop the rest at 2.05. What a battleground.
Nickel and dimeing me…
Ouch!!
I see above Blano thanking you for some sane SIRI advice. Curses, I’ve not been able to read these as much as before…
–
A General Observation
More than in any country the economics and the politics are fully intertwined in America. The Housing Bubble provides one of the best glimpses into both and well as into the population and the leaders. (Conditions of all human institutions say a lot about the population and the leaders at any given time).
Jas
“More than in any country the economics and the politics are fully intertwined in America.”
i have absolutely no idea.. hmm.. more than in any other country? Perhaps you’d be kind enough to name just one “other country”, and we’ll kick it around a little…
–
We have been at it longer. One can say that it is borrowed from the UK. Our businessmen, especially bankers, have perfected the art of controlling the govt via democracy (or public voting) for their own benefits and at the expense of the rest.
Most of the world has copied our system, some economic, some political, and some both. No? Where did the recent Housing Bubble, fueled primarily by debt, originate?
Jas
the countries that immediately came to mind when you suggested that were China.. then Japan.. then Mexico.. all of who’s politicians/govts have an iron grip on their respective economies. So, I had to wonder where you were headed.
Sure, they copied us and i’ll go so far to say that we may be the source of a few evils spread thoughout the world.
Exporting our highly addictive form of capitalism to immature and vulnerable economies is often a lesson in tough-love.. but they do learn fast from their mistakes and are the better for it in the long run, even if they’re not too happy about it.
Granted the RE bubble is a terrible thing, and it originated here.. The fallout spread across the world. And granted the PTB didn’t see it coming.
But from my perspective, focusing blame on any one group at least partially absolves some other group while, imo, all are equally guilty.
I try to be even handed in judging our govt because i take my share of responsibility for what the govt does. Even with all it’s faults I believe it’s a govt of the people, and i am of that people.
–
Look, the real “revolution” in England, during 1600s, was the overthrow of the monarchy by the moneybags of London. Their tool was to make Parliament supreme and they knew that they would be able to control the elections with money. How little has changed!
The rise of the modern money power at large scale is very English in origin and we are the latest and the greatest of that process. Before that it was limited to city-states. In terms of progress, on per capita basis, city-states were far superior. America needs to be broken up into 1,000 small states, with a joint defense only treaty, for real efficiency and progress. What we is an empire and empires are not the best for the population at large (they are great for the powerful).
Jas
We’ve alreadyt tried separate states.. we’ve tried a union. If there’s a better way, it must be something different.
You can’t look back to the govt corruption which supported robber barons and corporations of the late 19th century and tell me things havent gotten any better.. things got a lot better.. things are changing, slowly but surely. They might even get good someday.
Whoever has wealth will always rule. Spread the wealth evenly to the peons and it’ll soon end up in the hands of a few, no matter what system of govt or economy. That’s the way life is.
So, we gotta be realistic, creative and have foresight if a blueprint for the next govt is to have the slightest chance of being better than the current one. It’s not as simple as throwing the bums out and installing new bums, or chopping large corruption into smaller pieces.
BAC+CFC: Can Ken Lewis Rescue the Kobayashi Maru?
June 19, 2008
“We are heads down working on a new index of credit conditions in the US banking industry, but we had to come up for air to update our views on the pending merger of Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC). Why? Because we believe that the CFC transaction is shaping up to be a serious risk not only to CFC bondholders, but to BAC, its shareholders and CEO Ken Lewis. …
If BAC pays a full price for assets transferred from Red Oak, it arguably will need to take an immediate write-down of these assets, perhaps as much as 50% of the amount paid for each. This could mean a $10-15 billion loss for BAC in Q3, a truly ugly situation for BAC’s shareholders and one that will come at precisely the time when the bank may be in the market trying to raise new equity. And this immediate $10-15 billion loss estimate does even start to factor in the cost to BAC shareholders of settling the litigation and other unliquidated claims. Our guess as to the total cost to BAC for CFC? Stick a zero on the $4 billion cost of buying the CFC equity and you may a little high, but not by much. …”
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=289
Institutional Risk Analytics
Oops
Hammerin’ Hank wants more gov’t interference on the Street
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/18/AR2008061803225.html?hpid=topnews
The Fed has done such a great job of
creatingprotecting us from financial crises over the past quarter century, that certainly a bigger, badder Fed will be even better for America.China weathering global slump better than expected, World Bank says as it raises GDP forecast
SHANGHAI, China (AP) — China’s economy is weathering the global slowdown better than expected, the World Bank said Thursday as it raised its growth forecast for the Asian giant to 9.8 percent from 9.4 percent.
The World Bank cited the country’s strong domestic demand and sustained competitiveness in exports as key strengths….”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080619/china_economy.html
This is fact, conjectures that China and Asia are going to slow down as a result of the US slowdown are completely unsubstantiated. It is a world wide party. If we wish to come, we have to get used to the cost of admission - $125+/bbl of oil.
–
Thinking during the bubbles is always the same — it will keep going because it is based on fundamentals. China reminds me of late 1920s America.
The question for the Chinese and the Indian economies to enter recession is WHEN (2009?) and not IF. People can’t identify speculative booms (they think that it is secular) and are unable (unwilling!) to foresee the unavoidable bust. When China and India are in recession the US will enter depression. Synchronized bust! What fuels the booms is easy money. And busts are just waiting in the wings.
Jas
Er — isn’t the Shanghai stock market off somefing like 50 pct from its peak within the past year? And isn’t the stock market a leading economic indicator for the real economy?
Just wonderin’…
Once again, I must ask the question:
If China does not need a PPT, then why does it appear the US has one?
The Shanghai Market is off 50%, but the market capitalization is up 10%. Just have to pick the right stocks. Ignore indices.
Factory output in the Philly region dropped. It was expected to rise to a -10 on the scale from -15. It’s below -17.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BEB8AC546%2DCC59%2D4029%2D83C6%2D7DA0E1CD1229%7D&siteid=mktw
Benchmark 30 year mortgage rate highest since sept.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/freddie-mac-30-yr-fixed-rate-mortgage/story.aspx?guid=%7B188D063F%2D1628%2D44D8%2D8868%2DDD3A7B2D72C3%7D
picked up some BKX calls.
I see what you are looking at, i don’t think 60 will hold. It’s different this time.
Another article about housing prices holding up better in cities and transit connected suburbs, compared with the exurbs.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25248247/
When we first started debating which type of place would be hit harder by the housing bust a couple of years ago, we didn’t count of $4.00 gasoline. Some probably thought an urban crime/riot wave was more likely.
There could be a lot of surprises coming in these United States.
Beware of gentrification, my son!
The polarization that bites, the displacement claws that catch!
Beware the Freeter bird, and shun
The frumious Bourgeoisnatch!”
The Rodney King Riots had more to do with economics, and to a lesser extent gentrification, then a black man being beaten by 4 white men. The gentrification process will occur in the cities but the displaced lower and middle income types will make you pay dearly for it, each in their own special way.
As I’ve said dozens of times, this isn’t over until a city burns.
Angelo’s best friend?
Dodd Tops Lender’s Contributions List
By JESSE A. HAMILTON | Washington Bureau Chief
June 19, 2008
WASHINGTON — - A nonpartisan government watchdog group Wednesday listed U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd as the Senate’s No. 1 recipient of campaign contributions from Countrywide Financial Corp. in the last two decades.
The Center for Responsive Politics examined the mortgage lender’s relationship with members of Congress after revelations that Countrywide Financial Corp.’s CEO ran a program to give beneficial rates and discounts on mortgages to prominent people such as Dodd.
Though Dodd was the Senate’s leading recipient of campaign contributions from Countrywide’s political-action committee, the overall career amount of $25,000 is very small when compared with the senator’s leading contributors. For instance, his career contributions from Citigroup Inc. total $439,094. The political research center, which posted the report on its website at OpenSecrets.org, also said Dodd had received $15,000 from Countrywide for his presidential campaign.
Ode to the Clockwork Orange…
Mozilo angel, Angelo Mozilo
Angelo Mozilo, Mozilo angel
You’re no angel to me
Mozilo Angelo, how I loathe him
How I frown a bit when he lies
Everytime he says he can’t loan
My heart is on standby
Angelo Mozilo how I want him to do time
He’s got nothing that I can’t resist
But if you’d like a buddy deal loan, they do exist
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FhOSmBunbQ&feature=related
I was just thinking I’d like to see who the two Bear Stearns guys contributed to.
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
Angelo’s Angel
June 19, 2008; Page A14
Give Senator Christopher Dodd credit for nerve. On Tuesday, the very day he finally admitted knowing that Countrywide Financial regarded him as a “special” customer, the Connecticut Democrat also announced that he was bringing to the Senate floor a housing bailout sure to help lenders like Countrywide.
How much will Countrywide benefit from Mr. Dodd’s rescue? The Senator’s plan allows mortgage lenders to dump up to $300 billion of their worst loans on to taxpayers via a new Federal Housing Administration refinancing program, provided the lenders are willing to accept 87% of current market value. The program will be most attractive to lenders and investors holding subprime and slightly-less-risky Alt-A loans made during the height of the housing bubble in 2006 and 2007.
As the market leader during that period, Countrywide originated $167 billion of such loans, more than 11% of the nationwide total, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. Analyst Fred Cannon of Keefe, Bruyette and Woods estimates that the company is still holding more than $30 billion in subprime and Alt-A loans on its books, based on the company’s most recent quarterly financials.
Dodd admits to VIP loan club
By Chris Bryant and James Politi
Published: June 17 2008 23:45 | Last updated: June 17 2008 23:45
A senior Democratic senator on Tuesday admitted he was one of a number of Washington officials who were made members of a VIP programme by a leading mortgage provider but denied he knew this would secure him preferential treatment.
Chris Dodd, the Democratic chairman of the Senate banking committee, said he had not asked what Countrywide Financial’s VIP offer entailed and insisted he had not been told that he would receive favourable loan terms.
Fresh details of the mortgage affair emerged as Mr Dodd reached agreement with Richard Shelby, the banking committee’s senior Republican, on the final details of housing legislation designed to stem a tide of home foreclosures.
Whoops- that’ll leave a mark. How did he think this wouldn’t get leaked eventually?
Denied he knew a VIP programme would secure him preferential treatment?
Maybe he thought all he would get was a toaster?
China’s gonna raise energy prices across the board by 18% tomorrow.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeetFrgK3s74&refer=home
–
There is always a boom somehwere…
David Rosenberg:
“If people aren’t driving more what are they doing more of? How about shoplifting — talk about a highly cyclical activity. See page 1B of the USA Today for more on this latest trend — “More Consumers, Workers, Shoplift as Economy Slows”. Now how deflationary is that? The price for these folks is zero (unless of course they are chased down by a police cruiser who will then charge them a gasoline fee — as per yesterday’s story). The USA Today article cites a National Retail Federation survey finding that 85% of merchants say they are being victimized by shoplifting this year, which is up from 79% last year.”
Jas
From what I’ve read, shoplifting was an activity popular with adreneline junkies, sounds like it’s now becoming more of a “necessity.”
We just had our 2nd bank robbery of the year here in Loveland.
Loveland??? Quiet pretty Loveland? I recall driving through there on the highway one very early snowy December morning and seeing a black bear, then later sliding all the way through a big intersection with nary another car in sight (good thing).
Its not quite so idyllic anymore. Still beats the heck out of living in SoCal.
http://www.reporterherald.com/news_story.asp?ID=17459
Actually, the bear wasn’t in December, that was another trip. I commuted from Ft. Collins to Boulder my first semester of grad school, took 287, hate the freeway, not as scenic.
That was the week I quit sniffing glue that I saw the bear.
Question: would a job with a respected museum that’s affiliated with a university be highly subject to recessionary problems? It doesn’t have a large staff and my position would be fairly necessary. Have to decide on this thing and am not sure what to do, any thoughts much appreciated.
Cataloging, restoration, or program development? Is the program soft money driven or does the museum get hard money from the campus? You also need to figure out how they handle grad students and post docs, especially post docs.
Gwyn, was hoping you would respond, as you’re the pro. Lots of public representation, PR, liaison, education. And it’s hard money straight from the Univ. coffers, they’re very proud of their museum.
Bingo, what JP said below.
Bear in mind I’m a pessimist’s pessimist. But during downturns like this, it’s soft money that does better. It seems counter intuitive but it’s true. Whether the school is public or private also makes a big difference. If you are getting into program dev at a private school, there may be opportunity but you will have to earn it. With great rewards also come great risks. It’s like working for Disney. You are good for 5 yrs then you are used up. Program dev is safer at a public.
It’s easier to cut backroom positions. Those are less visible to the all-knowing, “they who must be obeyed” alumni with checkbooks. Hard money positions are the most tenuous whether public or private. If things get tight, restoration work grinds to a halt. The backroom shop becomes a glorified crating operation. They can get interns and grad students to do that which in turn soothes the parents; always helpful when they begin raising fees. I’ve been replaced by a donor’s neice who just graduated - not fun.
There is a reason why I never went on to UoD for my PhD. I don’t have the nerves for it. I prefer being an over-educated slacker. Saves me a fortune on Zantac and therapy.
Now that said, you could work for them and nothing will happen. Or you could get a nice severence package after some employer paid insurance and sick leave.
If you are currently unemployed, I’d take it. You’ll never be bored at a museum. If nothing else, the politics will keep you awake. They make local school board elections look tame. Take notes and write a book about your experiences - you’ll make a fortune.
Thanks! It’s a public univ., not private.
I’m a consultant in projects usually having to do with oil/gas powerline/gasline type operations, which I hate. I mean, I love the work but hate the thought that they’re going to mess up everything after I give the go-ahead. I survey it, write up the report and tell them if there’s anything of significance. I also am cataloging rock art with a grant I got.
It’s kind of part-time, which gives me free time, which I like, so a full-time onit job will be culture shock for me, but I’m resourceful, I’ll figure out how to slack off, have done it successfully before.
Thanks for your insights, am meeting with the Director and will ask him some good Qs, based on your post, thanks again.
And yeah, I’ll probably take it, cause now that I’ve fulfilled one of my top-three goals* (being a squatter), I need to move forward.
*hopping a freight
*camping out in a dino museum, ghostbusting T-Rexes
It depends on the position. The safest positions in a university setting are those related to bringing in revenue.
Lost,
I could tell you what to do, but then I would have to shoot you!
My advice is to not to give advice. Look at your financial situation, your goals, opportunities and your alternatives and draw your own conclusions. You appear to be a strong person and can deal with the ups and downs, based on your life story so far on this blog.
Do not worry about making misstates. We all do, you have and you will continue to do so. Just remember, no one gets out of this life error free!
Just one person’s opinion who has bounced up and down with good decisions and bad.
lol
Thanks, Lost. But please don’t shoot me now.
lost,
since what I offered is not advice, you’re safe for now!
lol…
But if you really, really, really want advice, I say “plastics”.
lol
All this talk about oil/gasoline prices…
Am I the only one who smells a rat like I did with:
1) Dotcom - “earnings don’t matter, screw P/Es, new model, etc…”
2) Enron - the brownouts in CA. I lived in CA at the time and all of the sudden there was not enough power? Market manipulation.
3) Real Estate - well, we’ve been discussing it here for 4 years now.
I hear the arguments of China and India ramping up demand, but c’mon. The price of a barrel of oil must have about a 60-75% pure speculative component to it at this point. It wreaks of 2005 Real Estate.
yep. been reading all morning about the new “long gold/short oil” trade
They keep throwing money at the usual suspects, maybe someone will figure out a way to run a car off an iphone.
cue “when you wish up on star…”.
ha, ha.
Very good.
new “long gold/short oil” trade
really? i wonder why is Gold too low and oil too high on the technical chart ?
Prices are what they are. “Speculators” have to buy and sell the same oil at the same price as everyone else. They aren’t buying and selling oil in some kind of separate “speculators only” market.
no but they’re doing it with OPM. No different than buying houses using money you never have to pay back
True, but specuvestors could sit on houses creating an artificial shortage. Plus ninja loans created an artificial demand for them. Is there artificial demand for oil?
Point taken, but demand for oil is essentially constant and supply is not like planting corn or throwing up a house. I don’t think many people would consider corn prices a speculative bubble, although they have risen even more than houses or oil. Agree price of oil will come down eventually, as supply and substitutes increase, but I don’t see current price as a bubble in the same way housing is/was. Easily as many differences as similarities between housing and oil markets.
Demand for oil is only constant until it isn’t constant anymore. You don’t suppose that a billion Chinese might curtail their demand slightly in response to a price increase, do you?
On a per capita basis, yes. But since 10,000,000 folks in China will be buying a new car (probably their first car) then its probably safe to assume that aggregate demand in China will continue to rise.
The futures expire monthly. At any given time, if there was oil available, the OPEC members could slam the futures.
Where is the oil? Oil futures expiration this week and the price is down $4, BFD.
Maybe it is a bubble, everybody calls it a bubble, so it must be a bubble. Very rarely is there a bubble and the world of traders and, news reporters and mopes call it a bubble. How often has that happened?
Blame speculators, but there are just as many short as there are long.
hoz, is it possible for a major oil producer, such as the Saudis, to utilize its huge profit margin to buy a market-significant amount of oil futures through shill buyers while never extracting that oil from the ground? Who keeps track; who is the “controling government authority”? Such a move would burn the supply-demand candle at both ends, as not only would demand appear greater but remaining supply would be under-estimated. I think producers are aware that gas prices have room to go much higher before reaching the point where demand falls off precipitously and profit levels off.
Where do Saudis put their wealth, and how will that change with their profits doubling? There’s not a whole lot of other safe places to invest those billions, yet holding the cash is a loosing proposition.
The OPEC member nations have not in the past bought futures in Oil. OIl was $17.77/bbl in 2001. For OPEC, that was a buying time.
I am not of any affiliation with any OPEC states. But if I were looking for max profit, it would be generated by keeping demand high and prices stable.
Demand is high, prices are not stable. Obviously OPEC has no oil to sell.
1) Oil is quoted in dollars. Dollar is tanking.
2) Neither China nor India hit industrialization yet - whoever thinks $150/barrel is high certainly gets some highly potent drugs - even with dollar stable oil is going to be heading higher and higher and higher as more and more people in China and India discover something other than mud huts.
West needs to pull its head out of its ass and realize that the China and India snowball started rolling from the top of the mountain and it is gaining speed. As west can’t stop this snowball, West must must adjust to the reality, which includes starting to drill for oil everywhere today, building nuclear power plants -today- so in 10 years we actually have additional oil/energy.
What? You actually expect us to plan beyond next quarter’s numbers? What do you think we are? Asians?
reality, which includes starting to drill for oil everywhere today, building nuclear power plants -today- so in 10 years we actually have additional oil/energy. that’s not a reality, that’s wishful thinking. Expanded oil drilling today just might increase supply a little in 10 years, but there is no way on earth to build nuclear power plants TODAY. Maybe in 20 years new nukes will provide something useful, but won’t TODAY. The intervening years will be extremely painful.
Huh? Even -France- gets tons of its power from nuclear energy. This 2008, not 1958.
I guess we could always nuk them and thereby reduce the world’s population and demand.
How does the line go, if all you have is hammer, then everything looks like a nail.
In the end, all the US has to offer the world is nuclear war.
Somebody keep a close eye on GWB for the remainder of his term, please…
Nine O’clock and all’s not well.
Why, did your cousin take you up on that interest-free loan?
Utah, I sentance you to four hours of CNBC!
My cousin’s father died last year and left all his money to the youngest boy.
One out of five children ain’t bad!
Well, not to worry, he’s probably in you-know-where having to watch CNBC 24/7.
Utah;
I hearby sentance you to one crappy portfolio for life!
so (looking at already crappy portfolio)…this is all YOUR fault, eh??
Early weekend topic proposal: Would the Senate’s “Housing Rescue” package primarily benefit homeowners, lenders or Senators’ future campaign contributions?
Housing rescue clears first Senate hurdle
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS – 56 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate began considering a broad housing package Thursday after clearing away conservative GOP objections, paving the way for votes this week on the election-year foreclosure rescue that could help hundreds of thousands of struggling homeowners.
House and Senate Republicans voiced reservations about the bill in light of allegations that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., one of its architects, and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., got cut-rate home loans through a VIP program at Countrywide Financial Corp., a leading subprime lender at the center of the mortgage meltdown.
But Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., dropped a threat to block the measure. Democrats and Republicans consider the legislation a political imperative amid rising foreclosures and growing public anxiety about the sagging economy.
“We have a responsibility to respond to the plight of the American family, and to their pessimism, and to renew their confidence in the promise of the American dream,” Dodd said.
Sen. Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the senior Banking Republican who exacted large concessions from Dodd to win bipartisan backing for the measure, said acting on it was a chance to show that Congress could move on a pressing issue.
“The American people expect us to provide effective and timely solutions the best we can,” Shelby said.
Pot to kettle: “My are you black!”
UPDATE 1-US Senate presses ahead on housing, delay rejected
Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:29am BST
(Recasts with letter details; Reid, McConnell, Manley comments; background)
By Kevin Drawbaugh
WASHINGTON, June 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate will begin debate on a major housing market rescue bill on Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on Wednesday, spurning calls for delay by Republicans who cited concerns about a controversy involving two Democrats and a mortgage lender.
In a letter that a Reid aide called “disgraceful,” nine Republican senators asked Reid, a Nevada Democrat, to delay consideration of the housing legislation, which advocates say could save thousands of homeowners from foreclosure.
The Republicans said they wanted time to study the bill and they were “concerned with recent allegations” related to Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), a lender under federal investigation over its role in the U.S. mortgage crisis.
I don’t know which is the bigger buffoon, Reid or Pelosi. Let us all pray that the electorate restores some balance to the governing bodies in November.
“Let us all pray that the electorate restores some balance to the governing bodies in November.”
I only pray for end of this:
http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/images/2004/04/23/image613312x.jpg
American politics in a nutshell:
I don’t know which is the bigger buffoon, Reid or Pelosi.
I don’t know who’s a bigger crook, DeLay or Hastert
I saw a on line poll somewhere about Fed funds rate. It was funny to see the question.
Is the rate too high, too low or just right (very goldielocks)?
That is the social guess work the Fed is going through.
Now, the Fed is owned by the member banks. If we decide its time for the treasury to hold dirrect auctions of treasuries we can do away with the whole thing.
So, what happens with the Fed assets?
Anyhow, I think the entire structure might be in trouble as they hold on to more and more bad loans. Depending on who is in the Treasury they could increase the reserve requirements and really slow things down and put the Fed out of its misery.
Transmutation transportation paper boarding passes are still being accepted for flights to safety…
Casinos on Wall Street; Main Street Loses Big
Nader.org. Posted June 18, 2008.
The big time gamblers are on Wall Street and they are gambling with your money, your pensions, and your livelihoods.
…
The Wall Street Boys, like all charlatans, develop words and phrases to dress up their megagambling practices. They say they are trying to avoid a “crisis of confidence” when these proclaimed capitalists go to Uncle Sam for a socialistic bailout. That only increases the “moral hazard” — another euphemism — and sets the stage for another round of reckless Wall Street Goliaths being deemed “too big to fail”.
Good to know there’s at least a little action.
“Hundreds swept up in mortgage fraud arrests
By LARA JAKES JORDAN, Associated Press Writer
34 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - More than 400 real estate industry players have been indicted since March — including dozens over the last two days — in a Justice Department crackdown on incidents of mortgage fraud nationwide that have contributed to the country’s housing crisis.
The FBI put the losses to homeowners and other borrowers who were victims in the schemes at over $1 billion.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080619/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/mortgage_fraud
mini fraud:
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080618/NEWS01/806180379
Am I imagining this, or did Ben post a story a couple of years ago about a homeless guy qualifying for mortgage loans and buying houses? Perhaps it is presumptuous of me to assume he was unemployed.
Recession is ‘wild card’ for housing market: Centex exec
By John Spence
Last update: 8:50 a.m. EDT June 19, 2008
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Lawrence Angelilli, senior vice president of finance at Centex Corp., said the “wild card everyone is waiting to see” in the housing market is if the U.S. slips into a true economic recession. “No one who was unemployed ever bought a house,” the executive said during a webcast on Thursday at the Bank of America 2008 Home Builders Conference in New York.
Operation malicious mortgage:
Sounds like we have a new phrase.
Those poor specuvestors. Infestors.
Anyway, I get to put my megaphone in storage today.
What do you call x2 “financial genuis” in FBI handcuffs? … A good start!!
Is this the end result of “Financial Innovation” that Sir Greenspent keeps yapping about?
Former Bear Stearns Fund Managers Arrested by FBI:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLXhIy_eBZhc&refer=home
But wait …there’s more: x400
“Operation: Malicious Mortgage”
Hundreds swept up in mortgage fraud arrests:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080619/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/mortgage_fraud
“The Justice Department also is expected to ask Congress for more money to help combat mortgage fraud as part of a larger funding request to curb white collar crime and violent crime.”
But wait… there’s more: (Hey Ben, care to anything to this list?) …getting a beer now…lol
“…The most common type of mortgage fraud was misstatement of income or assets, followed by forged documents, inflated appraisals and misrepresentation of a buyer’s intent to occupy a property as a primary residence.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080619/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/mortgage_fraud
The most common type of mortgage fraud was misstatement of income or assets, followed by forged documents, inflated appraisals and misrepresentation of a buyer’s intent to occupy a property as a primary residence.
_______________________________________________________
I know a doc who did just that with 3 SFRs. I told him (after a _few_ beers) that it was fraud. His opinion and my reaction were along the lines of Bessie Braddock and Winston Churchill.
I wonder if the FBI or IRS will give me a reward (a la Paladin) - then maybe I can use it to help out my cousin who needs 30K!
Hwy, Ouro’s loaning money, no interest! (Don’t kill me, Ouro, it’s a joke…)
I wonder if the doc’s reaction was similar to my landlady’s when I told her yesterday that taking all the fixtures from the house she has now given back to the bank was illegal. She replied, “I gave them all away, I didn’t gain anything from it.”
Unbelieveable.
Hwy = Hey (not one of our favorite posters, Hwy)
Utah:
EIght full hours of CNBC followed by keith obermen show!
Alright, what’s the best shot that goes with “Squatters” beer?
Throw back x2 on me …I’ll pay you when I see you at “Ray’s Tavern”
Hey Hwy, I don’t know if you saw my latest “video” but it has a shot of Ray’s. Go to youtube and search on Long Time Gone -Green River, Utah.
I drove by there at lunchtimn and 3 state troopers were coming out, man, I wished I had had my camera, it would’ve been classic.
Lost;
i really like this video clip you did earlier.
http://www.wfp.com/about/agentProf.asp?id=1408
Ouro, you lost me on that one, I’m Lost.
It was supposed to be this one:
Lost in Utah presents,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy7n2_xlh9I
Blame ben’s blog. It was supposed to be your video of the red rocks. “Ghost riders on the san rafael, utah.” The music is so evocative!
Thanks Ouro, you’re a gem!
I’ve had fun being silly today, I think I am going to be crabby tomorrow.
We’ll humor you, either way…
One thing we seldom talk about on here, is behavioral aspects of human beings…
Many of you are married to your charts & graphs and can’t grasp that this is the most important part of the equation, right now.
I like to use Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, as a primer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow’s_hierarchy_of_needs
Lad;
I did most of my higher level living stuff between ages 12 and 32.
I’m still trying to catch up to that radiant time!
Nothing wrong with being old & impressionable…
I prefer the term, over 40.
Anything I sit on I leave an impression.
I am stupid and have in 40 years, not been around such a high powered crowd, but was that a repartee, I just witnessed.
lol
ps: I hate you all for making me to go to the dictionary to look up the spelling and the meaning of words that have not been said in my presence in 40 years.
lol
My post got eaten - there’s something wrong with that hierarchy/pyramid, it doesn’t include blogging.
Lost, Aka found, that was funny!
From Crain’s Chicago Business today:
100s swept up in mortgage fraud arrests
“Since March 1, 406 people have been arrested in the sting dubbed “Operation Malicious Mortgage” that saw 144 cases across the country. Sixty people were arrested on Wednesday alone, including in Chicago, Miami, Houston and a dozen other regions policed by the FBI.”
Just the the teeny tiny tip of the humongous mortgage scam iceberg, but it goes to show once again that our government is focusing on public perceptions. Besides the two Bear Stearn’s crooks, how many government/corporate/financial big shots do you think will serve time for their part in all this? I’m guessing when all is said and done, we can count them on one hand. It’s so much easier to pop the small/mid-level appraisers/brokers/lenders than go after the big boys who provide campaign contributions and expense account lunches for their “friends”.
Finding the Bottom in Housing
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-BSC-tol-mortgage-housing-wm/index/a/17626
U.S. Charges 400 in Mortgage Frauds, Justice Department Says”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6c2SO2TZnxg&refer=home
WooHoo!!! Finally a bit of justice. I wonder if any of Paladin’s watch list was in there, or Casey?
Now, if we can just make the Mortgage bankers and brokers all be personally liable to their stakeholders for any failed mortgages they wrote without doing any due diligence to find out if the borrower actually had a chance of paying off the loan.
Then we might start getting somewhere.
From today’s WSJ (page C1):
“Banks Find New ways to Ease Pain Of Bad Loans”
(A rose by any other name is still a rose. A pile of steaming dung by any other name still smells like a pile of steaming dung.)
Some excerpts from the article:
“In January, astoria financial corp. told investors that its pile of nonperforming loans had grown to about $106 million as of the end of last year. Three months later, the thrift holding company said the number was just $68 million.
“How did Astoria do it? By changing its internal policy on when mortgages are classified on its books as troubled. The Lake Success, N.Y., company now counts home loans as non-performing when the borrower misses at least three payments, instead of two.”
The article then moves on to discuss Wells Fargo. Wells used to wait 120 days after a borrower stopped making payments before taking a charge against earnings; Now, as of April 1 (April Fool’s Day, BTW) it waits 180 days.
BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc., “transferred about $100 million of troubled commercial-real estate loans into a new subsidiary.
“That essentially erased the loans from BankAtlantic’s retail-banking unit. Since that unit is federally regulated, BankAtlantic eventually might have faced regularity action if it didn’t substantially beef up the unit’s capital and reserve levels to cover the bad loans.
“Because the Bankatlantic subsidiary that holds the bad loans isn’t regulated, it doesn’t face the same capital requirements. But the new structure won’t insulate the parent company’s - or shareholders - from losses if borrowers default on the loans, analysts said.”
There’s more, but I’m tired of typing.
BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc., “transferred about $100 million of troubled commercial-real estate loans into a new subsidiary.”
Isn’t that a move STRAIGHT out of the Enron playbook? Hell, even that movie “Fun with Dick and Jane” had the company Jim Carrey’s character worked for doing the very same thing.
And these guys are pulling this for real? Steaming pile of dung indeed.
Is there no justice?
The Enron States of America
It’s funny, soon they’ll have to write off all the interest they’ve been booking as revenue on option loans without actually getting paid - more than a few of these and the fact that they were insolvent all along will become very plain.
You can bet your butt that the securities lawyers are gearing up for this already. I certainly would be if I’d accepted that offer at Milberg.
The latest round of World Trade Organization negotiations was launched in 2001 in Doha, Qatar. The goal was to cut subsidies in rich nations and tariffs in poor nations, allowing the most efficient producers — be they in Iowa or Cordoba, Argentina — to sell to the world. Supporters say the economic rationale still holds.
This reminds me of another highly educated plan to outsource US factory labor to the most efficient cost areas and then the US workers can all be retrained to somthing much more efficient for the country, like Mortgage brokers.
well lets see how the food trade idea is working out…
“Trade as the route to food security, that idea is on the ropes,” said Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “If the guy who is selling it doesn’t want to sell it overseas, then the guy at the other end is terribly exposed.”
Grain exporters such as Argentina and Vietnam have restricted shipments, driving global prices higher and leaving nations that depend on imports searching for adequate supplies.
“The idea of trade liberalization was that you could count on global markets, but they’re not proving reliable,” said David Orden, a fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ao7aZdufhFQE&refer=home
Globalization is a crock! International trade can be manipulated for various reasons
1. With regard to food and energy, own population comes first (for political stability).
2. Artifical transportation costs (subsidized world trade by cheap oil for transportation of goods).
3. Political highjacking (political pressure and not profits are the primary goal (read oil and gas from Russa to Eastern Europe).
4. Massive inflows and outflows of capital (chasing maximum profits).
5. Hidding a failing economy by means of exporting of jobs to lower waged companies.
Free trade (globalism) like free mortgages (homes) have been and continues to be the cause of our problems. This entire house of cards have, imho, been subidized by the printing of money (inflation) and by debt to future generations for the benefit of the current recipients throughout the world. That is why, if there is going to be a global collapse, structural cracks are occurring and know one knows how bad it will become.
Where goes from here no one is saying or knows!
This is like the E ride at Disney!
Globalization is a crock! International trade can be manipulated for various reasons
1. With regard to food and energy, own population comes first (for political stability).
Wow. What a concept! There are countries that think food and energy costs at home are more important than the mating habits of turtles? Right, those would be the countries to have a common sense not to the certifiably insane people that believe this planet would be better if humans just did not exist. Welcome to competition. While the US is willing to sell well-being of its own population for the well-being of the turtles, some other countries aren’t.
2. Artifical transportation costs (subsidized world trade by cheap oil for transportation of goods).
And that’s bad why? Oh the audacity of people in New York wanting to have access to summer vegetables in January!
3. Political highjacking (political pressure and not profits are the primary goal (read oil and gas from Russa to Eastern Europe).
Those Evil Russians. Who the hell they think they are? They are supposed to be playing by the books that we want us to play! Oh wait…. They are the ones that wrote the books we want to play by… How dare they scrap them now!?
4. Massive inflows and outflows of capital (chasing maximum profits).
Flow of capital is good. Look at Africa - continent that never experienced massive inflow or outflow of capital chasing profits. Strangely, we dont see anti-globalization people wanting to live there - though they sure like to visit.
5. Hidding a failing economy by means of exporting of jobs to lower waged companies.
The job is worth only what someone anywhere is willing to do it for. It is not worth a penny more. When it was expensive to travel 20 miles it made sense for a blacksmith to be located in every village.
The moment it became cheaper to ship something to be fixed half way around the world and back than hire someone at $90/hour, $90/hour jobs disappeared.
No one is preventing you from paying $90/hour to your servers at a restaurant – just add this to the tip. Your car mechanic won’t mind if you pay him $90/hour even though he is charging you only $60/hour. Blaming globalization on your unwillingness to pay more than the product/service is worth is just silly.
Evil Capitalist,
So I caught your interest in my comments. So, Is everything working out for you?
Can you really argue that it is beneficial for the public of the US to pay for the current standard of living (lets see, we have taxes, jails, health insurance, legal services, food and shelter for illegals).
I guess you are happy to pay these while the jobs that supported the middle class went overseas for a substantial cut?
I don’t know sh*t, but all we have been doing as a people is spending money today to maintain are current life style (borrowing from the future), while all those good paying jobs that should be paying for these free handouts to political refogrees goes unpaid. So, lets issue bonds, debt on future tax payers. This only works if things get better. Will they? If they don”t, someone has one h*ll of a bill to pay.
Look it, nothing personal. This is not an ego attack. I may be wrong, but I do not thing so.
Hi lostcontrol,
Sorry, it probably came across that I was attacking you personally, but really i was just attacking the position. Hopefully, you are not offended.
Can you really argue that it is beneficial for the public of the US to pay for the current standard of living (lets see, we have taxes, jails, health insurance, legal services, food and shelter for illegals).
Unfortunately, it is irrelevant what I think about it - what is relevant is that the US population right now thinks it is benefitial to have higher taxes, jails, health care, etc for illegal immigrants so the US population can have cheaper farm good, cheaper restaurant service etc. If that was not the case the US population would have resolved the problem with illegal immigration long time ago. It is a simple fact that should the US population not like this enough, this problem will be solved - we just did not reach the pain level when the solution is needed.
Now if you ask me about it I think we need to scrap out entire immigration policy - the policy is insane. Those that scream “there are no jobs that americans dont want to do” chose not to see that there are tons of jobs that Americans of today do not want to do (let me call them right). Right refuses to acknowledge that the laws of supply and demand at price X apply not just to gasoline but also to labor. Right does not want to acknowledge that the same market that establishes the price of $12/h for assemblyman on a non-union plan in Alabama established that the tomato-picker is worth $4/h hour. Me and you probably aren’t going to be willing to do this work for $4/hour because we think we can do something else and get paid more. By now I seriously doubt there is anyone who is in the US legally and has a right to work in this country who would be willing to work for $4/hour. It is however, a perfectly fine and perfectly acceptable job for someone who is used to do the same work for $0.10/hour in another country. To them it is a gigantic leap forward. Of course in future, their children are unlikely to be willing to do the same job for $4/h hour and someone -else- will take that job. Eventually there wont be anyone willing to do this job for $4/hour at which point we will either have no tomatoes or the price on this service will go up. Left is no better - they pretend that the illegal immigrants are special group that is being pushed around by the Evil Big Farm and hense need a special protection, special representation, special everything.. and of course special $12/hour to pick tomatoes… Well, BS! At $12/hour I’m sure there are going to be more than enough Americans wanting to do this job - but that’s ABOVE the today’s market rate and that’s exactly why we are not paying $12/hour for that.
I don’t know sh*t, but all we have been doing as a people is spending money today to maintain are current life style (borrowing from the future), while all those good paying jobs that should be paying for these free handouts to political refogrees goes unpaid. So, lets issue bonds, debt on future tax payers. This only works if things get better. Will they? If they don”t, someone has one h*ll of a bill to pay.
No argument here at all. However, that’s not what your points before were about Speaking of it… over a long time economy will purge itself from the “political handouts” as supporting a politician won’t be as profitable as not supporting one. Globalization is the vehicle that’s going to get us there… because now our politicians are in competition with Chinese politicians and Russian politicians and if there is one thing that our politicians dont do well is compete.
Evil Capitalist,
Thanks for your concern, but I am not really offended. I remember discussions like this as a college student 40 years ago.
All I can say is that my prescription of our problems may be wrong, but we do have a problem and I think your answer is misses the point.
I suspect though, that we can agree that we definitely have a problem.
I all most feel like we are debating whether the house caught fire from arson or laziness on the part of the occupant.
Differences in the world occur. I guess the question is what do we attend to do about it?
I apolgyze if this does not make any sense, since I am on my third borbon and 7-up.
lol.
ps: Believe me I do appreciate your response.
I need something a little lighter - yesterday and today have been quite something.
The “Ladies Only” section of the Corpus Christi Caller Times the other day had a front page with 2 stories on how to have a more affordable wedding - not worth a link. Things like do your own soundtrack on an mp3 player, ordering flowers late (sorry, the content really did not stick…). Nothing alternative or fun.
One quote jumped out at me. Some bridal specialist stated that you couldn’t economize TOO much on a dress, since every little 10, 11, 12-year old girl, when she dreams about her wedding, she dreams of walking down the aisle and her dress…
Ladies, anyone remember dreams like that?
What I remember is dreams like being an astronomer or an Egyptologist or living in the Alps. On road trips, I dreamed of being on a motorcycle instead of with my family in the car. Stuff like that.
It’s almost like the corporations and the MSM have dictated what kids want/do/think. Plug ‘em into the machine young.
I remember being 11 years old and standing on a hill and wanting to be Lawrence of Arabia (I was reading his book, the fact that he was a he didn’t matter). In fact, not long after that I got a job working for a friend’s mom so I could buy an Arabian horse (which I eventually did).
Wedding? We’d laugh at anyone who thought like that at 11. Too weird. In fact, my best friend and I had a $50 bet paid by whoever got married first (not paid TO, but rather paid BY). LOL
Not this lady. Dreamed of becoming an astronaut. Blame it on my mom, got me hooked early into sci-fi.
Wanted to be a cop or a marine biologist at ten. NEVER wanted a big wedding. More from fear of public speaking than anything else, but even at that age I wanted a quick private ceremony and an excellent honeymoon. Love to go to weddings (long as I don’t have to say anything in front of the group) but have no desire to have my own. (Kindof like with kids. :D)
In a 10 year old’s mind, an excellent honeymoon is about - uh, gorgeous locale and touristic adventures?
hip in zilker:
“What I remember is dreams like being an astronomer or an Egyptologist or living in the Alps. On road trips, I dreamed of being on a motorcycle instead of with my family in the car. Stuff like that.”
What I remember is those l-o-n-g road trips when dad and mom wouldn’t stop the car at Stucky’s so my sister and I could get our free pecan candy.
I can relate. My motorcycle fantasies were about wind and freedom and excitement - but I could have also stopped at every Stuckeys and every place with samples of fudge and rock candy.
And you weren’t wanting to stop at Stuckeys so you could meet the boy you would marry some day, were you?
From cnnmoney dot com:
Honolulu (CNN) — Imagine going to your local grocery store and paying over $8 for a jar of Jif peanut butter. How about $5.50 for a loaf of white bread, $6.50 for a gallon of milk or $7.19 for a half-gallon of orange juice?
These are just some of the prices we found in a recent survey of Hawaii’s supermarkets. Families there are certainly paying the price for living in paradise.
I stored four jars of PB along a with freezer full of crumpets.
The country can collapse, but ouro verde will have high tea and crumpets while the SHTF.
LOL!! Hey, did you know you can survive for 72 hours (exactly) on a jar of PB? Great survival food. Me, I could survive longer…but we won’t talk about that…
It’s always been my top pick of what to take from the pantry when bugging out.
Ouro,
Do you drink your cup of tea with your pinkie up?
Actually, i do it with my feet on the desk and my dogs at my side.
I like that pose even better.
Oil down $4.89, corn up twenty five thousand!
Wahoo - gonna go for a drive. With the AC on, 100 here.
It’s 83 degrees over here, it’s baking here and ouro don’t wanna go outside and fry.
Lite chores, no phone calls, blogging and pilates!
not baking here, steaming
91 degrees in Rockport 52% humidity
enough breeze that it will be just fine for a bike ride
got my sun screen on - waiting on a phone call and then I’m out of here
Cindy Mccain has the most unreal colored eyes!
Eyes the color of siamese cat eyes.
I was watching her in an interview and I never heard a word she said.
You’re getting sleepy, sleepy……….
There is something going on that we are not being told. When the govt. reports arrests of fraud and other crimes from Bkrs, Mgt bankers, and assorted riff-raft, the govt. is attempting to soften the blow of whatever the bad news is. This is referred to as a preemptive action so that the govt. can show that actions are being taken before they tell you how bad it is.
This approach is the same as the illegal alien issue. In the last 6 months the govt. is getting flashy headlines showing that they are enforcing the law (8 years late, I might add) in order to move the agenda to citizenship of illegals who are here only for the economic benefits(heck, I would do the same, if I was a citizen of the various countries of Latin America).
The pigs are squealing, the dogs are running around in circles and the cats have disappeared.
Grab something solid, I believe that the ground is moving-Earthquake!!!
10 top cities
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/105190/Best-Cities-to-Live,-Work-and-Play
hey Seattle and Portland escaped. what does Austin have to do?
Real estate agent accused of fraud appears in court
The News-Press Thu, 19 Jun 2008 1:01 PM PDT
Real estate agent Samir Cabrera appeared in court today on bank and wire fraud charges that could get him $1 million in fines and 80 years in prison.
Real estate developer indicted on fraud charge
ABC 7 Gulfshore News Thu, 19 Jun 2008 8:32 AM PDT
A Fort Myers real estate broker was indicted by a federal grand jury Wednesday on wire fraud charges in connection with questionable real estate deals.
IRS agent, others charged in real estate fraud
Atlanta Journal-Constitution Wed, 18 Jun 2008 8:24 PM PDT
Five metro Atlanta residents — including an Internal Revenue Service employee — are due back in court later this month on charges they allegedly organized a real estate scheme in which they defrauded the government of tens of thousands of dollars.
Damn the torpedoes! The Democrats are going to push this Countrywide bailout measure through regardless of the appearance of scandal and conflicts of interest which have recently surfaced.
Bailout Beats Back Conservative Objections
June 19, 2008 04:29 PM ET | Luke Mullins
A day after conservative Republicans threatened to block the housing rescue legislation that is making its way through Congress, the Senate has begun considering the measure, the Associated Press reports.
From the Associated Press:
House and Senate Republicans voiced reservations about the bill in light of allegations that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., one of its architects, and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., got cut-rate home loans through a VIP program at Countrywide Financial Corp., a leading subprime lender at the center of the mortgage meltdown.
But Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., dropped a threat to block the measure. Democrats and Republicans consider the legislation a political imperative amid rising foreclosures and growing public anxiety about the sagging economy.
Bear Stearns funds launched yearlong crisis
Collapse of Bear Funds began year of massive write-downs, job losses, and economic upheaval
June 19, 2008: 04:48 PM EST
NEW YORK (Associated Press) - The indictment of two former Bear Stearns money managers on Thursday served as a reminder of how much has been lost in the nearly one year since their hedge funds imploded.
The two funds run by Matthew Tannin and Ralph Cioffi lost almost $2 billion, and launched a wave of panic on Wall Street last August that more doom was to come. Those fears proved correct, and the ensuing credit crisis crippled Bear Stearns and cost global banks nearly $300 billion to write off worthless mortgage-backed securities.
There are reports that the financial turmoil might cost banks and brokerages nearly $1 trillion from write-offs and lost business by the time it finishes. The most recent warning came Thursday from Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden, who said his bank might take substantial write-downs from mortgage securities and other assets during the second quarter.
There is no need for any loan writeoffs, just roll each month’s loan deliquencies into the next month.
Wells Fargo (for one) doesn’t take a hit against earnings until a loan goes 180 days without a payment, up from 120 days since April. Wells is on the cutting edge of banking; I think all banks should follow their lead.
In fact I have a better idea: I say a bank should never have to take a hit against earnings. Every loan that is deliquent should automatically have the amount due - plus the earned interest - rolled into the next month. That way there would be no need for a loan loss reserve because there would be no need for a loan to ever be written off.
Plus the loan portfolio will be forever growing due to the compounding of interest generated by the deliquent loans.
Can someone tell me what this means in english?
“Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem”
Ask Occam.
Ute girl;
I thought you were going to take a one hundred mile drive.
Ute girl - hey, I LIKE that.
You trying to get rid of me or what with the long drive???
Did you know the state of Utah was named after the Utes? That’s kind of like asking, what’s the number for 9-1-1…
I get it, I am sorry Ouro
you wanted to know what “This” means,
1. This (used to indicate a person, thing, idea, state, event, time, remark, etc., as present, near, just mentioned or pointed out, supposed to be understood, or by way of emphasis): This is my coat.
and there are a dozen other definitions.
I am in trouble now.
No, Hoz, your portfolio’s in trouble… LOL
Ouro,
If I learned one thing in life, it is this:
Reduce what you say to the simpliest terms possible, because you do not know the knowledge and expertise of your audience.
Alternatively, if you do not know what you are talking about or you want to prove your superiority, (If you can’t dazzle them with your brillance),
then baffle them them with your bullsh*t
People who know their subject, unless they have an ego problem, should be able make what they are saying to any audience.
jmhi.
I really wanted professor bear to explain the bailout to me so it makes sense. So far it makes no sense.
er uh the bailout that is….
Typos a la Carte, Ever A Specialty of the House
By Jane Black
Washington Post Staff Writer
“…In my fantasy, I enter a restaurant, order and sweetly ask the waiter if I can “hold on to the menu” during dinner. Then, using a distinctive purple pen, I discreetly copy-edit the descriptions of the dishes.
Caesar, not “caeser.” Shiitake, not “shitake.” Riesling, not “reisling” (though I’d quietly applaud restaurants that spell it wrong as long as the misspelling was consistent.)
“Who was that anonymous proofreader?” chefs would whisper to one another. Correct-a-girl strikes again! Eliminating menu mistakes, one restaurant at a time. …”
This one covers a lot; Art degrees, Wine, Organics, eating out, Breakfast, health food, goofy mushrooms, purple pens, Oyster bars. Its missing dining in shorts and beer. Oh well Snob appeal for whites. LOL
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/17/AR2008061700540.html
Never say I don’t indulge you!
Here’s something you will enjoy: Stuff White People Like.
OK, this is REALLY bad and stupid, but funny in a weird way..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xEzGIuY7kw
what, no hot sauce?
“Beer, not just for breakfast anymore.”
Budweiser: Breakfast of Champions.
I would like to make a general statement, if I may, with regards to risk management. This equally applicable in any business. My comment is from an insurance standpoint.
From my CPCU courses and the one ARM class, there are pluses and minuses to any approach.
-You can focus on one source of goods and squeeze them for your benefit, however if they have difficulties in providing the product in a timely manner, you suffer.
I guess the point I am trying to make is that concentration of a critical impute to whatever your final product is, makes you a capitive to whatever your supplier’s problem(labor strike, increased cost of production, whatever).
The way I was taught and the way insurance companies, last time I checked, they would multiple sources in the event that something goes wrong with any single supplier.
This very problem exists with our military suppliers as a result of the consolidation in the 1990s. With less sources of impute, bottle necks can occur and you are trapped.
This is what I see globalization is doing on a global scale. Heach country specializes, based on comparative advantage, in one impute.
Now lets say the US and Australia, exports significant food grains to the world market. While they are suffering from poor weather, maybe the rest of the world has an excess of those items that would produce an abundant harvest. But, since these countries have decided to maybe specialize in Fish production or Iron production, they are scr*wed when it comes to food.
I guess I am saying that situations are different parts of the world. When globalization is in place with everone using their comparative advantage, the entire world is threatned when something like food and energy is suddenly cut off.
This is not a situation that an insurance company would want to be involved in when it comes to “business interruption” insurance.
In other words globalization offers lower prices, however it is more fragile and subject to the collapse of the entire system.
My evidence is the global cashflows(credit).
imho
I’ve been following this blog and I can’t figure out what does FB stand for? Can anyone tell me?
It depends on the contex. Some choices are:
F*cked buyer, f*cked borrower, (and recently) f*cked banker.
Fooked borrower…as in somebody who bought an overpriced house at the height of the bubble.
Fu_ked Borrower
Back from the Infamous Dew Drop lotsa moaning and groaning about bills gas, food etc. boring. Lars and I grabbed a few and sat outside for quiet. Ergo home early
“Abstract:
What damage have meteorites done to humans in recorded history? Through our extensive research druning this semester, we discovered numerous instances of recorded impacts damaging humans, animals, and property. It was difficult to verify the authenticity of actual deaths and injuries, but we found such an abundance of reports that it became impossible for us to completely discount the reports as hoaxes. In our report we cite many instances that stood out as both representative of other reports and emblematic of the exceptional nature of meteorite impacts. We concluded with several scientic analyses concerning the probability rate of meteorite impact upon a human target. ‘
Just knowledge,
Anyone curious should read.
Some Established Meteor Strikes:\
“…02/03/1490 Shansi, China - 10,000 deaths. …
…The most important conclusion is that meteorite falls constitute an utterly negliable hazard compared to a single large multimegaton airburst such as the Tunguska explosion (Lewis 1998).”
Sorry my bad, just interesting charts that I would present differently.