The Housing Bubble

The Union Tribune reports from California. “California housing sales were at their lowest level in 13 years last month, as prices slid 30 percent from year-ago levels, DataQuick reported yesterday. The 33,024 transactions statewide were down 6 percent from April and off 10.7 percent from May 2007. It was the worst May since 1995. The statewide median price stood at $339,000, 4.2 percent below April’s level and 30 percent down from the all-time peak of $484,000 in May 2007.”

“It was the biggest year-over-year downturn for any month in 20 years of record keeping, said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. ‘Adjusted for inflation, mortgage payments are back to where they were in mid-2003,’ DataQuick said. ‘They are 23.3 percent below the spring 1989 peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 38 percent below the current cycle’s peak in June 2006.’”

“DataQuick found that 38.3 percent of all sales in California in May were for properties that completed the foreclosure process in the previous 12 months, compared with 37.6 percent in April and 5.4 percent in May 2007. San Diego’s foreclosure sales represented 36 percent of the market in May.”

“LePage said Southern California buying reflects bargain shopping, particularly among first-time buyers and investors in inland areas. By contrast, buying among higher-priced homes remains ‘especially slow.’”

“‘That doesn’t bode well for the high end, where so far, prices have come off their peaks but have generally held up best,’ LePage said.”

The Fresno Bee. “As median house prices continue to fall and foreclosures rise, Beazer Homes is pulling out of the central San Joaquin Valley. The home builder recently announced that it will stop building new homes and exit the Fresno market effective Sept. 30. The company is advertising deals on completed homes this weekend.”

“‘When these guys leave, they see dirt as a liability and dump the lots, sometimes at phenomenal prices,’ said real estate analyst Robin Kane.”

“It’s a practice already happening in Fresno. Prices of raw land in Fresno have fallen 30% to 40% over the past several years.”

The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “A former FBI agent who has delved into many high-profile financial meltdowns has a new assignment — Monterey mortgage lender Cedar Funding. R. Todd Neilson, a Los Angeles forensic accountant and bankruptcy specialist, was named Tuesday as the Chapter 11 bankruptcy trustee for the 20-year-old real estate investment company that has more than 100 Santa Cruz County investors.”

“David Nilsen, president of Cedar Funding, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for his business last month amid mounting legal and financial pressure exerted by the embattled firm’s investors.”

“Because of several troubling aspects about Ceder Funding, the judge said a trustee would have to sort out the company’s financial condition. Ceder Funding attorneys said the company has about $170 million in outstanding loans on California real estate and some 1,400 investors in individual mortgages and a mortgage investment pool.”

The Mercury News. “Far fewer homes sold last month in Santa Clara County than in May last year, and median prices fell 12 percent.”

“‘We’re getting more consumers putting deals together,’ said Dave Walsh, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors. ‘It does not mean that the market has bounced back. What it means is we’re not in a softening market right now. Prices are fair, the affordability indexes are more in line, and more people can qualify for mortgages now. Buyers are still very choosy about what they pay. They’re not willing to overpay.’”

“Parag Panse and his wife made an offer to buy their first house - a four-bedroom in Sunnyvale - last week. Renters in Sunnyvale, the couple almost bought a home in 2003 and again in 2005. They finally took the plunge, after painstakingly researching the market and increasing their estimate of what they’d have to pay for a home in the Cupertino school district.”

“They beat out six other potential buyers and hope to move in during July. Sunnyvale home prices, he said, have flattened since he began his search three months ago.”

“‘It’s a home that I am buying, so once I have done that, I will not be looking at the price’ he said, referring to whether his new home will gain or lose value in months or years to come.”

“DataQuick’s figures show that 14.3 percent of all home sales in the county last month were properties that had been foreclosed upon sometime in the previous 12 months. That’s up from 1.4 percent a year earlier.”

“Across the nine-county Bay Area, 26 percent of the homes that changed hands in May had been foreclosed upon sometime in the past 12 months. In May 2007, only 3 percent of sales were previously foreclosed properties.”

The Marin Independent Journal. “Homes sales continued to plunge across the Bay Area in May, though Marin remained an anomaly as the only county with a median price increase. Just 178 single-family homes were sold - down from 287 in May 2007, DataQuick reported.”

“‘The typical seller in Marin, they can wait,’ said Corina Rollins, senior real estate instructor at the College of Marin for more than 20 years.”

“Rollins would do the same if she had a property to sell. ‘Why would I put it on (the market) if I don’t have to sell, in order to take less than I possibly could get by sitting around and waiting another year?’ she said.”

“A snapshot of Marin’s foreclosure picture this week, based on statistics provided by ForeclosureRadar, indicated 670 properties in various stages of foreclosure within the past 120 days. Nearly half of those - 320 - were in Novato.”

The Press Democrat. “Bay Area home sales dipped in May despite a wave of foreclosure sales in Sonoma and other outlying counties that helped push prices to a four-year low. The typical Bay Area home sold for $517,000 in May, down a record 21.7 percent from a year ago, sinking to the lowest median since summer 2004.”

“Prices continue falling because sales are concentrated at lower price ranges and the falloff has been steep in the region’s more expensive areas. Areas with the most affordable homes registered year-over-year sales gains, bucking the overall Bay Area decline. Two-thirds of the zip codes with annual increases were in Sonoma, Solano and Contra Costa counties.”

“May median sales prices in these areas, on average, were down 24 percent from a year ago and down 36 percent from their peaks. A foreclosed Santa Rosa home valued at $550,000 three years ago was put on the market by the bank for $240,000. There were 13 offers, and it sold for $280,000.”

“Homes above $500,000 and those in even more expensive regions are sitting on the market, including Marin, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.”

“The typical monthly mortgage payment Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,393 in May, down from $3,090 a year ago. The typical mortgage payment for a Sonoma County home purchased in May was $1,921, down from $2,432 a year ago.”

“Fire officials said someone intentionally set a large Sebastopol home on fire, destroying the Gravenstein Highway South residence. Fire investigators found signs of a fuel being poured in several areas of the 8,000-square-foot home, indicating it was intentionally set, said Gold Ridge Fire Chief Andy Pforsich Wednesday.”

“The fire was reported before dawn on May 11. It was considered suspicious early on because there was no power to the vacant home. The home, which was for sale, was considered a total loss.”

The Reporter. “Although Bay Area home sales weakened last month to a 20-year low, sales of foreclosed homes rose in the East Bay and Solano County, causing some local Realtors to hail it as a boon for investors and first-time home buyers.”

“Sales in Solano County of foreclosed properties made up 57.6 percent of the resale market, according to DataQuick. In Solano County, the median home price sank 31 percent to $300,000, compared to the same period last year.”

“A lot of first-time buyers are taking advantage of the market with the belief that home prices have hit bottom, explained John Wilkerson, a Realtor in Vacaville who has seen the majority of his sales come from foreclosures and ’short sales’ where the buyer sells the property below value.”

“‘Being a home buyer right now is like being a kid in a candy shop,’ said Kathleen Ramos, a Realtor in Vacaville.”

“In May, jumbo mortgages in the Bay Area rose to 30.6 percent, up from 28.8 percent in April. That was still less than half the level - 63.5 percent - seen a year ago.”

The Sacramento Bee. “For the second straight month, the Sacramento region showed year-over-year gains in home sales as falling prices and growing numbers of bank-owned homes prodded bargain hunters off the fence. Prices, however, didn’t show the same strength. Median prices have dropped in double-digit percentages in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties over the past year.”

“Since January, banks in the region have foreclosed on 10,224 homes, according to Foreclosures.com. At the same time only about half the number - 5,448 - of repossessed homes were sold, DataQuick reported.”

“‘The sales numbers are great, and if we can keep on that track we could have just a slight decline in value,’ said Scott Thompson, a partner in Mortgage Resolution Services in Carmichael. ‘But we’re still foreclosing on more than we’re selling, and that’s the troubling part.’”

“Sacramento County’s median sales price of $225,000 is almost 35 percent lower than the same time last year. That median price hasn’t been so low since January 2003.”

“Analysts cite one reason for the rising sales and falling prices: a glut of discounted bank-owned homes that now rule the market. The Sacramento County Association of Realtors said 65 percent of May’s existing homes sales in Sacramento County and in the city of West Sacramento were bank repossessions.’

“In Elk Grove’s 95757 ZIP code, home to thousands of homes built from 2002 to 2005, 78 percent of sales involved foreclosed property. In Galt, 77 percent were, according to DataQuick.”

“Mortgage strategist Brent Wilson of Comstock Mortgage said the true test of the Sacramento real estate market will come ‘when we get to the seasonal slow times of the year - pretty much November through January. That’s going to be the true test to see if this rally has legs,’ he said.”

The Mt Shasta News. “County homeowners are no strangers to the worst housing crisis ever recorded, as the number of mortgage default notices (NODs) filed in California is at the highest level on record.”

“Siskiyou County now has the fourth fastest rising default percentage in the state. Siskiyou County has seen a 126 percent increase in the first quarter of 2008 (Jan. 1 - March 31) from the fourth quarter of 2007 (Oct. 1 - Dec. 31), according to RealtyStore. Counties with the highest increase from Q4 2007 to Q1 2008 are Glenn, Trinity and Mono with 138, 227 and 429 percent, respectively.”

“The number of statewide homeowners looking down the foreclosure barrel blasted last quarter to its highest level in more than 15 years, as the market continued to work its way through declining home values and a pool of at-risk mortgages that were originated in 2005 and 2006, according to DataQuick.com.”

“Last quarter’s number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1992.”

“Lending institutions sent Siskiyou County homeowners 106 NODs during the January-to-March period. That was up from 47 the previous quarter, according to county records.”

“‘We’re looking at more and more notices being recorded,’ Siskiyou County Recording Supervisor Rusty Neiswanger said. ‘We have already seen five percent more this month than last month. Hopefully Siskiyou County won’t be hit as hard as some of the counties in California. I do know that it’s effecting the housing market; I just know this is not good.’”

The LA Times. “With gasoline prices racing to new highs weekly, it’s crunch time for many gyms. Consumers looking to tighten their belts are giving up on tightening their buns in gyms, yoga classes and personal training sessions. Instead, they’re exercising the old-fashioned way: sweating for free at the beach, parks or on the street.”

“Canceling a monthly gym membership — which ranges from about $25 to hundreds of dollars– may not seem to shave much off the budget. But for some, it’s enough.”

“‘I know it’s next to nothing, but when you’re a starving artist, every little bit counts,’ said Ashley Brooke Moore, an aspiring dancer and actress in her 20s who canceled her $36-a-month membership at Bally’s about eight months ago. She then signed up for yoga classes, but when that got too expensive, she quit those and started going to free yoga classes at Runyon Canyon Park.”

“Money is tight because the catering company she moonlights for hasn’t been doing many jobs recently. ‘Everything’s a little bit slower, and gas prices are ridiculous,’ she said.”

“‘A lot of our clients have said, ‘You know, I can’t afford it,’ said Karen Speitel, office manager at Mind-Body Fitness Pilates Studio in Los Feliz.”

“Things really slowed down during the three-month Hollywood writers strike, she said, and never really picked up again once it ended in February. She’s tried calling former customers to remind them that group classes are only $15, but gets the same response: Even $15 a few times a month is too expensive.”

“The fitness industry ‘is certainly not immune to economic factors, i.e., the credit crunch, increasing fuel and food prices, slowing employment and the housing crisis,’ wrote Kathleen Rollauer, senior manager for research at the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Assn.”