For those unaware, most blog platforms allow you to write an article, or many articles, and choose when they actively publish. On my old blog, I’d pre-write 10 articles over a weekend, and have them publish actively every few hours during the next few business days. Gives the site some “life” but means I can knock out the big stuff in a few hours.
Ben does bust his butt getting stuff together, but I’m sure for the regular posts he just pushes them out at a preset time. I bet this one posted early either due to an error on his part, or an error on his server thinking it was later than it really is.
For you guys in OC, how much further do you see prices dropping? I know they have to go down more from here but how much do you think? I’d like to buy in Laguna Niguel. I’m hoping to get a 2000+ sq foot place for around 400k. Do you see prices getting there? I’m sitting on the sidelines with a fat down payment, just waiting for the prices to come down much more.
Better have 25% down or more. I think we have shown that in most normal periods real estate is a mediocre investment at best. In the past 30-40 yrs of high inflation it has done OK.
So, save your money and buy invest in some companies with interesting emerging technology.
I got bombs bursting all night over here by Camp Pendleton.
It sounds like those boom box stereo speakers we pass on the road. Ouro’s war buildup report is that we are building up for a biggy. Let you all know when I hear the choppers in the late night. Between “squish on the street” on cnbc and the bombs, well I sleep less well.
Iran will be attacked. It is needed to secure the bases in the area and “get more cheap oil.”
Funny, though, how oil is not at all cheap today and will be absurdly expensive when Iran is attacked.
Ah, but it WILL let the hedge funds and big banks make a fortune in commodities. Millions of people may starve, freeze, or otherwise suffer and/or die as energy becomes insanely expensive, but that’s “okay” so long as the fat cats get to buy their second weekend yachts.
Great. Yeah, heavy live-fire exercising often means “let’s get ready to strike someone soon” training. If it only went on for a few days I might not worry, but I’ve been hearing about this for longer than that.
If Miramar *and* Pendleton are busy for an extended period of time, that doesn’t spell good news to me. :\
Not sure how far they will go down, but sales are up and prices are still headed down in South OC. I think a lot of the sales are short sales and bank owned properties.
Citigroup on Thursday warned of further large writedowns and credit losses in the second quarter, saying its business remained under pressure amid “unprecedented” market conditions.
The announcement, made by Gary Crittenden, Citi’s chief financial officer, sent Citi shares more than 4 per cent lower in New York afternoon trading, although they recovered to close down 1 per cent.
Citi’s warning, which comes after disappointing second-quarter results from Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley, is likely to compound investors’ fears that the credit crunch will weigh on US financial companies for months to come.
A plunge in oil prices sparked a modest Wall Street rebound on Thursday, as investors continue to gauge the willingness of central banks to tighten policy amid slowing economic growth.
“From a risky asset perspective it is not a comfortable investment environment when central banks are looking to raise rates in the face of slow growth,” said Alan Ruskin, strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
“There is disquiet among investors and it is way too early to suggest that global markets have absorbed the consequences of higher energy prices.”
Pub companies were under fire as the London market extended its losses over the past two sessions to 153.5 points.
Concerns about debt levels, which are high across the sector, and banking covenants left several pub operators nursing losses of more than 5 per cent.
Punch Taverns was one of the biggest fallers. Its shares dropped 5.8 per cent to 363¾p after Morgan Stanley, one of its corporate brokers, warned clients that Punch’s share price would remain volatile and could easily fall a lot further.
“This is because the company will face a series of balance sheet obstacles over several years,” the broker said as it took the red pen to forecasts.
The small chains can adapt easily, as the local Chicago pubs I frequent have done. They can quickly go from $1.50 PBR (eww) to $2.00 PBR with few people noticing.
The large chains are tied to a fixed menu, and fixed prices on the menu. I’ve also noticed that some local pubs have more family working there (probably for very little cash) versus the large chain pubs that have a large corporate structure that costs a lot.
My favorite Chicago pub right now (Relax Lounge on Chicago) has these amazing $5 burgers (best in town right now, IMHO) that would cost $10 at the chain stores. Loss leader.
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Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-06-20 09:58:21
I’ve also noticed that some local pubs have more family working there (probably for very little cash) versus the large chain pubs that have a large corporate structure that costs a lot.
Several of my local favorites are family operated, and they know how to pinch a buck if they have to.
Many pubs recently closed in the town I used to live in back in the UK. Reason: the big breweries were charging too much and customers wouldn’t pay those prices. Unless you are privately owned, you have to buy from that particular brewery.
I am thinking the Democratic Congressional supporters of this legislation may have gotten a bit too full of themselves for their own good.
Veto Threatened for Housing Bill
White House Objects to Funding Plan for FHA Program
By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 20, 2008; Page D02
The White House issued a fresh veto threat yesterday against a plan to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners from foreclosure, raising objections to Senate negotiators’ proposal to fund the program.
Speaking as a good Democrat, even I gotta say this was all politics. The bill would have done relatively little to help the mortgage mess. But now the Dems can say they tried to help, and Bush can say he’s acting fiscally responsible. It’s all a side show.
I think the word you were looking for is ‘kabuki’ and yes, BOTH sides of the aisle have finely honed skills in that particularl art form. And I say that as a loyal little democrat myself
Look, this is classic DC politics and nothing more. Bush said he would veto the first version that used taxpayer money. They modified it so it looked like there was much less taxpayer money at risk and Bush said he was probably OK with it. The OK came at a time when the media had just picked up speed with the stories about poor single mothers who had “bought” into the ownership society and were losing their bank rentals and it seemed to have substantial bipartisan support. Then a scandal broke out with one of the democratic sponsors so they all piled on to keep a democratic congress from having a significant legislative victory in an election year and to embarass the democratic leadership. Also some poles have come out that show the legislation isn’t quite as popular as they previously thought. Also it is turning out that yelling about the price of oil and gas distracts a lot - clearly not all - of attention from housing stuff.
It is just politics.
I told you guys months and months ago that no serious housing bailout would become effective while Bush is president. It is his last chance to seriously claim to be a conservative and that is what he wants as his legacy. There was a short time when I thought it might happen because they had stripped a lot of government guarantees out of it. Not sure how much of that got back in, but the Dodd thing was just the hook that allowed him to go back to his preferred stance. He would have gone back to it eventually even without this scandal. Maybe after thinking about it very hard for a few weeks on the ranch.
Haven’t you heard? Congress has decided to snub the president’s veto threat and pass the damn thing no matter what. And Frank says he has no intention of investigating Dodd..
Meanwhile, some in the Press are reporting that it Bank of America is behind the bailout, and that BOA lawyers or staffers wrote the actual legislation. The idea is to dump Countrywide’s bad mortgages on the taxpayers, so BOA isn’t stuck with them when it takes Countrywide over. BOA’s contributions to the crooks in Congress are far, far, far larger than Countrywide’s, and have dramatically increased since the takeover’s announcement.
Just so no one here is under the impression that the Dems give a shit about your privacy any more than Repubs do, here is a little something that Sen Dodd slipped into the housing bill.
“Washington, DC - Hidden deep in Senator Christopher Dodd’s 630-page Senate housing legislation is a sweeping provision that affects the privacy and operation of nearly all of America’s small businesses. The provision, which was added by the bill’s managers without debate this week, would require the nation’s payment systems to track, aggregate, and report information on nearly every electronic transaction to the federal government. ”
“FreedomWorks Chairman Dick Armey commented: “This is a provision with astonishing reach, and it was slipped into the bill just this week. Not only does it affect nearly every credit card transaction in America, such as Visa, MasterCard, Discover, and American Express, but the bill specifically targets payment systems like eBay’s PayPal, Amazon, and Google Checkout that are used by many small online businesses. The privacy implications for America’s small businesses are breathtaking.”
“Call Congress and Tell Them to Oppose The eBay Reporting Provision in the Housing Bill: 1-866-928-3035″
I had a thought today regarding supposed home value appreciation. Case Shiller seams to state that home values will appreciate on average around 1% above inflation annually. Let’s assume that this is true and observe the following hypothetical situation. A man buys a house in 1908 for the price of 50 bars of gold. At 1% appreciation, this house or an equivalent house will cost 135 bars of gold today. In a hundred more years it will cost 365 bars. I question how this could be possible for houses to appreciate above inflation. Wouldn’t we all be priced out forever eventually if this were true? Isn’t it cheaper to build houses today with modern equipment and mexican labor than it was in 1908?
“Wouldn’t we all be priced out forever eventually if this were true?”
No, because over the past 100 years there has been real increases in wages (albeit not so much in the past 20-30 years). As for the next 100 years, if real wages continue to stagnate, then you would be correct–all other things being equal.
I believe this is correct. If you say inflation is 5% for 100 years the price of housing goes up 6% per year then housing would be at 400x but incomes would only be up 148x.
For more moderate numbers: inflation 1% and housing 2%
Housing increases by 7.4x
Incomes (aka inflation) 2.7x
Numbers are nice after 100 years… e times diference in price.
That is with the old P=Poe^rt simplistic calculation and assuming wage increases are inflation. After 200 years the delta is e^2…. e is the natural base.
I think case shiller just reflects the increase in value long term but things like the mortgage tax break caused a deviation in prices. I think that is why loan manipulation and tax breaks are called price distortion by many here.
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Albert Bartlett
It could be possible that if one were to measure average house price appreciation beginning in 2008 and ending in 2108 the numbers might reveal average depreciation of 1%. This would be the result of falling home prices from the current correction and tighter lender standards in the future. Thus, houses would increase in price over time but slowly lose to inflation.
What I am saying is could the current housing bubble correction throw off the gains of the next century?
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Comment by walt526
2008-06-20 04:30:57
To go off on a tangent… you are assuming that over the next 100 years, the dominant monetary phenomenon is inflation. I’m not sure that will be the case. The fallout from the early 21st century financial system meltdown might be a new found appreciation (no pun intended) for a medium of exchange that is fully convertible into gold or another physical commodity. If the fiat currency experiment ends and is instead replaced by a commodity-based currency, then we will almost experience deflation and inflation at irregular intervals.
I’m not necessarily advocating a return to the gold standard, but it seems probable to me that a political consequence of “financial armageddon” will be popular demand for a monetary policy that is not subject to the whims of the PTB.
“…then we will almost experience deflation and inflation at irregular intervals.”
How did the English use to do it? A “Fat” King = 4 feet for a yard
a skinny king = 30″
Comment by GH
2008-06-20 08:51:52
If deflation becomes the rule, this will imply 100% of all debts public and private will not be repaid, since there will not be sufficient resources to pay these. This therefore implies total economic collapse and renewal, in which case neither inflation or deflation will matter.
In terms of housing, we are not currently seeing deflation, since the prices were artificial anyway, and must be measured long term, rather than looking at a spike in prices causes by EZ credit rather than real market forces. The way I see it, even if prices in bubble areas fall another 25 - 30% prices are still way up over the decade.
Comment by bobo
2008-06-20 10:12:07
What I find interesting is that home prices should have been decreasing over the last 100 years as a percentage of our income. With all the advances in machinery, materials, and import of cheap labor, real estate development should have become far more efficient. With real gains in productivity and incomes over those 100 years, houses, food, and other necessities should have dropped as a percentage of our incomes. We certainly see cheaper food, and can argue that having cheap transportation worked out this way, but what happened to houses?
Is it manipulation of tax codes, increase in loan profiteering, greedy banks? While the actual building of houses should be cheaper, the high prices relative to incomes makes little sense. It seems we have lowered the efficiencies of real estate transactions, and perhaps we have too many hands in the cookie jar (realtors, mortgage brokers, fees, appraisals, inspections, etc.)
Comment by James
2008-06-20 11:03:46
GH,
I think the deflation scenario if carried to an extreem does imply that. Of course that imples zero economic activity and no debt whatsoever.
However, if your obligations are lowered in cost and debt serice goes down it might work out good for the government.
The mess that greenspan made pointed out that a lot of unfunded obligations like medicare/ss are helped by deflation. Also the low rates allow the government to finance its debt at spectacularly low rates.
Remember too, that when you are dealing with long periods of time (100 years), the house itself is probably long gone. It’s very difficult to track prices over this much time (which is why Shiller got so much credit for doing it); how many homes today are the same way they were 100 years ago? Unless they are in a museum, the answer is close to 0.
Houses are a depreciating asset. Land is an appreciating asset. Over a long period of time, the only thing that left is the land value, the house will have depreciated to 0 (kind of like time value on an option).
You can keep the house from going to 0, but you need to “roll over” by putting money into the home to keep the expiration rolling into the future. If you don’t do this, the home will drop to 0 eventually.
Land = Potential Appreciation
Home = Depreciating asset
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Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-06-20 05:22:19
the structure does ? inflation minus 2% minus repairs
the land might go up
“Housing increases by 7.4x
Incomes (aka inflation) 2.7x”
Incomes are not equivalent to inflation. You’re forgetting about productivity gains, which, historically have gone up faster than inflation.
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Comment by James
2008-06-20 08:31:51
Productivity gains would be deflationary on prices, no?
Would say that housing is going down in price at least on a price per sq/ft basis.
Comment by bobo
2008-06-20 10:36:49
If I remember correctly, Schiller was pointing out that houses should not appreciate faster than inflation for precisely the reasons given above. Even a small percentage rise above inflation means we will reach levels too high to be supported by incomes. He had a graph showing real prices over the last 100 years… and for the most part it would go up and down due to wars and other larger factors, but was relatively steady. However, it wasn’t until about the 80s or so that houses started going up and reached parabolic curve in the recent few years. The 1% included that recent curve, but take out the last 15-20 years and you could argue that house appreciation is roughly 0% in real terms.
Rising home prices relative to income indicates a lower standard of living. True, homes might be bigger today, but then again that 900sq ft. condo for 600k in California isn’t exactly big or affordable either. Like I mentioned above, there are huge inefficiencies in real estate transactions, too many mouths to feed when a home gets sold. We seem to have used car transactions well regulated and working efficiently, like craigslist in peer to peer sales. Why can’t homes be the same way??
Comment by cenobite
2008-06-20 12:36:56
You’re preaching to the choir. This is exactly what I was thinking. The one percent is really only there because the recent bubble is averaged into the century.
I am going to Paris today to investigate the local market and consider selling my place there. I don’t believe the bubble ever really hit Germany but it has definitely hit Belgium where I am today and some parts of France I believe. I will post my observations here next week, but would love to chat with any regular readers of this blog in Paris. If you are in Paris and have insights please e-mail me at hikerdadlvp at yahoo.
This can’t be. It’s only 1 p.m., pacific NW time here . I was going to catch up on the day’s threads and see what losty was up to, with her rescue dogs and her squatty habits, and see if Ouro has flashed truckers and made them drive off the road, and see if Faster has any new recipes for his rice, jeeze, I haven’t even barfed off the deck yet. iNo one else, has, either far as I know, so it’s too early. Wait…wait…waiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit…..
nope.
Not yet. False alarm.
Although I do have some serious hiccups. They sometimes bust in on me, mostly after I’ve eaten a baked potato. For some reason baked potatoes make my lungs hiccup. Stupid stupid baked potatoes. I should eat a pint of sour cream, that’ll help me out here.
LOL!! Good morning, Oly, or afternoon, or evening, whenever you read this, and did you know two of the 40 arrested in the Malicious Mortgage bust were from Utah? They’ve made their state proud…and one had a house in Moab! Probably my neighbor there, I had one who drove a restored Toyota Land Cruiser and was always flashing new North Face jackets and hiking boots and stuff, probably him.
Oly,
I’m just reading this. Hey, those truckers are lucky if I flash them my knees. I drive all covered up ala kate hepburn. An asian lady told me to walk around with a parasol to stay freckle free. But, I will consider wearing summer dresses and try to practice my fake smile while I’m driving around.
Who wants to see photos of san diego north county?
Oh, gee, Oly, I thought you may have taken a severe detour and flew to CNY yesterday when I noticed the woman in a little car passing me on the left was sporting a tiarra along w/her jeans and tee shirt.
Now that I think about it, she probably had a good decade on you but she still looked good in her sparkly day wear ya know!
She had that Oly spunk too–zoomed off before I could give her a thumbs up.
I have been in LA area for the last week. There is alot of comercial real estate for lease and also alot that is under construction, along with quite a bit of under construction residential real estate.
I also see this where in the Las Vegas area, since this is where I live now. Except due to economies of scale, the Vegas area does not seem to be as exstensive with unfinshed construction.
Thousand Oaks too (Ventura County). Ditto to more space and more building of commercial. Also see a trend in Latino retailers in the older section of Thousand Oaks Blvd. They survive on the illegals (foot traffic from nearby section 8).
It will be interesting to see if The Lakes (Caruso Disneyesque strip mall) upscale retailers, are still in business in a year.
I was in Vegas for a convention three weeks ago. Stayed at the Hilton Grand Vacations on the Strip (Very nice, better than the big casino hotels BTW) This is one building north of Sky Las Vegas. The tower is completed and claims to be 95% sold out.
Well guess what? Sitting in the pool at our hotel we could see the car access to the parking garage at Sky. Between 4PM and 7PM on a weekday we saw only 2 cars entering! Once dusk came around, only 3 units had lights on!
I was in LV a few months ago, staying at the Sahara. From the monorail station, I could see into the parking structures at the nearby condo buildings. They were about 95% empty. From the balcony of my room, I could see several condo buildings in the other direction (westward). The only building with lights on at night was the one that was still under construction - work lights. The other condo buildings were about 95% dark.
I don’t think the reality of the situation has kicked in yet in LV.
Top floors in a local bank building were left unfinished. A contractor told my husband that the only reason they’re building so much commercial here is that the projects were approved and financed 3 years ago.
Local RE listing service topped 6000 listings (the most I’d ever seen earlier was 4100)
I went into a part of Syracuse I had never been to before looking for a well known deli. I couldn’t believe the “For Rent” signs on that street. They were everywhere. Maybe that was the norm but I was shocked to see so many. It was a pretty tired looking neighborhood, so perhaps it was a crime spike issue.
I think there is a portion of sellers capitulating on price. All of a sudden, I’m seeing homes over 2000 sq ft in good school districts for under $200k. I saw one smaller yet beautifully updated older home (over)priced last fall at $269k now down to $219900. It’s in a village and has some issues w/lack of parking. We’ll see if that moves it.
I’m seeing more listings go to “For Sale or Rent”
I heard of 2 different 40ish women who took their own lives in the last month. They both had medical problems but I wonder if the economic gloom played a part in the depth of their hopelessness. One had been a doctor.
I’m finding a lot of the SFH rentals in my particular area (not near the universities) have been rented to foreign students who leave as soon as their degree is completed. Sometimes after only a 6 mos. lease. I’m wondering how this slowdown will affect that market.
I heard my first “cut-back” comment. An abandoned gym membership due to commuting costs. (30 mile round trip–the cost of living in farm country)
Wednesday night I was out on the strip which has a lot of chain restaurants: parking lots all full as usual. Even the tattoo shop had a full parking lot. There are still big parties being thrown for friends’ birthdays and family events. Obviously there are a few thousand households w/homes for sale that are probably feeling anxious but I still don’t get a general sense of pain or fear. Most people I’ve been running into seem friendly, open and in a good mood.
I lived in Syracuse and Fulton for 15 years (1988-2003). I live on the far east edge of the university section (near Genessee/Salt Springs intersection) for 10 years. Maybe I know the “well known deli” and can comment on the neighborhood.
Syarcuse’s economy fell appart in 1991 or so. Companies started shutting doors rather quickly, and there was a net population exodus out of the city/county and most of upstate NY during the decade of the 1990s. Basically, if you kept your job you lived pretty well. If you lost it, you had to sell and leave.
As a result of the economic downturn, nearly all home builders went under or left the area. No one was building. No one was moving in. No one was buying houses - everyone had one, and no new people getting jobs ment no new people buying houses/no one trading up.
I rented for several years during the Grad school days. When I decided to stay in the area for awhile (wife got a job), I bought in 2000. At that moment, the economy turned up and there was a sudden demand for housing. But there were no houses less than 10 years old, and due to the harsh weather and the economic times, the existing housing stock was saturated with fixer-up houses. Only a small percent of homes were in good shape. (Even the realtors comment on this in the paper at the time - good quality houses were suddenly selling like hot-cakes at good prices, the rest of the homes could not attract any interest). Certain parts of the city held up OK during the ’90s (Dewitt shire around the ShoppingTown mall, Manlius of course, even Stratforshire(?) area in the city), but a good deal of the housing stock in the area was built for 1920s-1960s factory workers, so its small, crowded, and not desirable to today’s families. The percentage of housing dating from 1990 forward is very small.
Thanks for commenting Cincy. I know exactly where you were on Gennessee/Salt Springs. But this area is off of Teal Ave. I know those homes date back at least to the Depression as the 80-ish person I was with lived there in several places when she was a little girl. Considering her mother enjoyed changes of scenery often, I doubt those homes were new even then as they were all rentals.
Was that Strathmore you were referring to as one of Syracuse’s nicer locations? I’ve seen many beautiful places that make you wish you could have known them in their heyday. Sedgewick looks pretty dern nice too.
I’m pretty familiar w/Syracuse’s history as my husbands’ family has been here forever and my mother in law has put together several small books w/historic photos and stories. A public likeness of one of my husband’s relatives is on display in the city. The in-laws spent their childhoods in North Syracuse neighborhoods (she went to SU, he went to war) but moved to the suburbs in the 70s after a few years of wedded bliss on their home turf.
Their experience was a little different than the one you describe above. Their custom built place was over 3000 sq ft on 7 acres. I doubt it impressed any of their neighbors who had equally if not more impressive properties. Compared to what’s built up around them today (mostly after 92 when I met hubby) that house looks downright puny. I suppose some of those original neighbors in the 70s were the country club set but not as many as you’d think. Many just wanted some space and privacy.
Speaking of the 90s, I know Baldwinsville and Camillus were humming along in the 90s too. And then there’s Caz. I know homes have been built pretty consistently in the 80s, 90s and especially 00s in Caz. Perhaps people that still had jobs were just heading out to the burbs.
But wait! There’s more! DH just came home. He was building homes in the mid 80s in the Syracuse area. He said his crew was all over the place: the west side, the north side, and Stringer homes on the east side. He said they weren’t just doing Stringer homes. There were affordable ones being built too.
RE: I heard of 2 different 40ish women who took their own lives in the last month. They both had medical problems but I wonder if the economic gloom played a part in the depth of their hopelessness. One had been a doctor.
Tip of the iceburg.
Wait until the SHTF in the federal wealth transfer payment systems because of a massive tax revolt and the emergence of a huge underground economy, so “dat der ain’t no ‘mo monies in da till fo’ da po’ foke.”
It’s all over in SW Florida…. the bottom is in… definitely!
————————————————–
As inventory falls, agents’ hopes rise
They say the right location and price may be turning the housing market around
By Tom Bayles
Published Friday, June 20, 2008 at 4:30 a.m.
Last updated Friday, June 20, 2008 at 3:58 a.m.
For real estate agents like Lueanne Wood, the news has been a long time in coming: The backlog of homes for sale in Southwest Florida has dropped steadily since the beginning of the year.
“We’re back in the saddle again,” said Wood, a Venice-area agent for Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate. “The baby boomers are back and they are coming from everywhere and they don’t discuss taxes or insurance — that’s not even in their vocabulary.”
“We are back to ‘05 and ‘06 numbers,” Wood said. “The business has absolutely turned around.”—->
Fantastic! I would hardily suggest that everyone from near and far rush down there and get in on the housing boom, before it’s to late!
“We’re back in the saddle again,” said Wood, a Venice-area agent for Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate. “The baby boomers are back and they are coming from everywhere and they don’t discuss taxes or insurance — that’s not even in their vocabulary.”
“…they don’t discuss taxes or insurance — that’s not even in their vocabulary.”
This sounds like a slip. Why mention taxes and insurance at all? Why not just say: “The baby boomers are back.” The agents know taxes and insurance are indeed becoming huge issues and gumming up the rent v. own equation.
Besides, anyone who buys without consideration to the carrying costs is gunning to become just another sob story: “Sally Doe, a retiree living on a fixed income, can barely afford to feed her six cats after county X raised taxes to help cover its pension obligations”.
“The baby boomers are back and they are coming from everywhere and they don’t discuss taxes or insurance — that’s not even in their vocabulary.”
Apparently this guy has a line on “dumb money baby-boomers”.
Who on earth from this country doesn’t now know about the FL tax system? You would have to be seriously impaired to buy a home in FL that’s not your primary residence; you’re just making yourself a target for incredible tax raises. If you’re going to live here full time, the tax environment is still awful, but at least you get the same protection everyone else does.
But looking to buy a 2nd home in FL? You might as well just pile the money up and light it on fire. It will give you more entertainment, and cost you much less in the long run.
FL has declared war on the boomers and all 2nd home owners. Proceed accordingly.
Mike, people do not know about the FL tax system. It amazes me that people spend more time investigating the pros and cons of plasma vs. whatever TV’s then they spend on real estate investments. I’m from NY and see it all the time. A co-worker will say FL condos are way down, I’m going down next month to look around. I’ll ask “What are you looking to spend?” they’ll say “$500,000 condos in Tampa are going for $200,000″ then when I inform them the monthy costs of a condo W/O mortgage could be $800-1,000/mo and thats all they could rent it for, I get the deer in headlights look.
Kathy Roberts, chief executive of the Sarasota Association of Realtors, credits the decreasing inventory to three factors: more houses are being sold at lower prices, fewer are being listed and some sellers have taken their homes off the market, thinking the offers they have received are too low.
According to the article, the conclusion is based only on estimated months of listed inventory.
Inventory is overflowing. New sellers do not want to jump in right now. Current sellers are taking a break. NAR would like us to pretend this inventory doesn’t exists.
“We are back to ‘05 and ‘06 numbers,” Wood said. “The business has absolutely turned around”
Damn I missed it! Now I’ll remain a bitter renter and be priced out forever. Yesterday when I last checked the market was in free fall and this morning we’re back to ‘05 and ‘06 numbers. Talking about a quick turn around.
A Brave New World For Financial Regulation…
Nothing “Brave” about it, the FED opening the door to investment banks was/is a very bad move. Time will prove this to be the case, but we live in a society that prefers not to let nature take it’s course. We can’t ‘allow’ failure… Some many leaking dikes and only so many fingers.
The euro’s function as reserve-currency spoiler was fully known to him when he assumed office. He also knew that the ECB wasn’t about to follow him into the interest rate ditch when push came to shove – but there’s always hope, I guess.
The really stressful part in all of this is that there really isn’t anything he can do in his position, given the tools at his disposal. All he can do is use traditional ways of messing around with the US money supply, or try to find more novel ways to affect US interest rates – but therein lies the problem.
He has no power to affect the interest rate targeted by the Fed’s sister institution in Europe.
IMHO it is not that Mr. Bernanke has done a “bad job”, it is that the federal reserve and the ECB are not working together. Often appearing at odds, the entire financial structure is coming apart. I am betting on France, but it could just as easily be Italy or Spain that throws in the towel first.
That’s the only conclusion I can come up with after what was reported in yesterday’s WSJ about how Wells accounts for troubled loans.
As of April Fool’s Day, Wells Fargo decided to wait for 180 days of non-payment on a loan before declaring it as deliquent. Before April Fool’s Day Wells only waited 120 days.
So, are we to believe, in this economic climate, that a loan that hasn’t had any payments made on it in four months will have payments made on it after six months? Not likely.
What’s really going on, IMO, is Wells Fargo is cooking its books. As of April Fool’s Day Wells Fargo gets to prevent an extra two months of bad loans from being dinged against it’s balance sheet. An extra two months of bad loans will be deemed as not bad at all and thus will not be counted against its earnings. Wells is ten days away from the end of the quarter when these earning will be reported.
Wells Fargo is just buying time, IMO, time to juice up earnings so it can puff up its stock price to be unloaded into a gullible stock market.
Again, Wells Fargo is screwed. And Wells Fargo is supposed to be run better than most banks. If so, then that means most banks are screwed; That means we are all screwed.
What makes you think they will not be able to cook their books indefinitely until they have the opportunity to somehow unload their toxic crap on the taxpayer?
Why would you think that Wells Fargo “is supposed to be run better than most”? Some analyst with Merril or Citigroup or ? - Wells was liked by Mr. Warren Buffett - whoppdee doo, and probably talked up on Bloomberg or CNBC Financial News. Analysts then revised their opinions of the bank based on who was buying. It did not change the banks operating positions.
Wells is better run than Citigroup, not as well run as Northern Trust. It is just a mediocre bank that over leveraged housing.
The problems with the banks are readily discernible from their SEC filings. It is not prudent to be invested in any US bank at this time.
I’ve told the story here before about how Wells put an extra $5000 in my account and when I told them it was a mistake they said it couldn’t possibly be, so after trying to convince them I gave up. This was a few years ago, but it that’s par for the course, then, yes, they’re screwed.
Yes, there are bidding wars, on the foreclosures. The banks price them super low and watch the fools bid them up. There are 2 in my neighborhood (92123) priced at under $300,000.
I’ll only take these rumors of bidding wars seriously when they involve pistols and rifles… with Realtwhores as hostages… and when the bidding process is over; I want to see bullet holes in plaster and pantsuits…
…then later on these future FB’s can really say ’someone held a gun to my head’, while crying for another bailout…
Yes, but as a woman in my office said to me today, there are multiple bids on some properties, but all the bids are below the ask.
Be careful. When someone tells you there are multiple bids, they may not be lying, but it doesn’t mean you need to bid above the ask if you want to buy the place.
There might be some real bargains by then. What’s ES, btw? Out late last night entertaining summer associates, and the coffee is barely fighting through the haze this morning.
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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-20 07:14:30
S&P 500 futures.
Comment by txchick57
2008-06-20 07:15:56
e-mini (S&P)
Ah yes, the summer associates. Bet they’re just endless fun . . . coddled overprivileged brats (I assume since you have them you’re at a big firm) Are they still getting 1K a week and more to go to beer bashes every night?
I may be really aging myself with this comment.
Comment by GrittyToasterWaffleGuy
2008-06-20 07:25:36
Ours aren’t that annoying. (we only have two here in SD). Big firm, but local office is only 30 attorneys, and we pride ourselves on not wanting to work with complete a-holes. So far, it’s worked out reasonably well.
That said, since they get paid a substantial fraction of a 1st year salary on a pro-rata basis, I’m guessing they make a hell of a lot more than $1k/week.
Comment by PermanentRenter
2008-06-20 08:26:50
You have to coddle and overpay the summer associates, and take them out drinking, or else how could you possibly get them them to later accept an associate position and work long long hours off which the partners make big profits? Its a necessary part of the game and the partners know it or they wouldn’t invest their valuable time doing it.
Comment by Tulpenwoerde
2008-06-20 08:57:54
1K? Ha. Try $3K.
Comment by txchick57
2008-06-20 09:53:33
160K a year for a first year associate who is generally as useless as tits on a boar and whose time you usually have to write off >50% . . . . right
Comment by GrittyToasterWaffleGuy
2008-06-20 10:36:32
That’s the current calculus. I certainly wouldn’t want to be one of those overpaid loss leaders doing corporate work right now.
Comment by Rental Watch
2008-06-20 13:32:46
The last number I heard was $150k, but that was a couple of years ago before my wife escaped the clutches of the firm and moved in-house.
Definitely a move-up in life, a move-down in salary.
As I told her, she’s now getting paid far more per hour than before…AND she has her weekends back.
Comment by Rental Watch
2008-06-20 13:48:20
And Txchick, remember, rates are up too. A 3rd or 4th year associate bills 2k hours at $300 per, I recall the rule of thumb being a third/third/third to cover overhead/salary of associate/profit to partner.
So that person gets $200k base/bonus, partners split $200k profit.
Now, do the same math with that same 3rd or 4th year who is a workhorse and bills 2,500 hours.
Now make the billing rate $375 per hour because that 3rd or 4th year has worked enough to justify the amount.
They still get paid $200k, overhead is still $200k, but now that associate is worth $500k+ to the firm annually.
And partner track is now close to a decade in many firms (from what I hear). So, you make a little on the average attorney, but you make $500k+ per year on the workhorses/future partners for a decade before you need to cut them in on the action. If of course they don’t die from utter exhaustion.
Or, like my wife, you get the $ from them for a while, then they leave because they realize that being paid only based on the time you put in (and not the quality of the work) sucks.
Well, I just gotta say that watching replays of the Tannin-Cioffi perp walk on the news last night just warmed the cockles of my heart. Yeah, maybe it’s just window dressing and a bit of a show to make it look like something is being done, but those guys didn’t look too happy. I hope they spend every dime of their ill-gotten gains in legal fees.
Energy analyst Jeff Vail (jeffvail.net) recently posted a piece that said removing subsidies could actually INCREASE the use of oil and gasoline. Why? Because subsidies are an inefficient allocation of resources. The theory is that the market will allocate the resources more efficiently, thereby resulting in higher GDP growth and thereby resulting in increased energy use (GDP growth and energy use are joined at the hip)
Just a theory. Personally, I prefer to look at the example of Japan and Korea as they industrialized and went from using one barrel per person per year to about 17 today. China is currently at the about 1-2 barrels per person per year stage, on their way to 17. Do the math.
I think you are forgetting they are building 50+ nuclear plants today, so they wont need as much oil as we do.
Plus i seriously doubt they will allow so many 12mpg SUVs to roam the streets of bejing. So if they ever get to even 8-10 barrels per person i would be very surprised.
“I think you are forgetting they are building 50+ nuclear plants today, so they wont need as much oil as we do.”
“Plus i seriously doubt they will allow so many 12mpg SUVs to roam the streets of bejing. So if they ever get to even 8-10 barrels per person i would be very surprised.”
Nuclear power is not used for transportation; it’s used for electricity generation. China does not use much oil for electricity; they use coal.
Regarding 12mpg SUVs, you see very few of these on the streets of Seoul or Tokyo or Osaka either; either mini-cars or no cars, yet the average Japanese and average Korean still uses 17 barrels per person per year. Oil is in every single item we buy, from packaging, to transport, you name it.
It’s not an energy crisis; it’s a liquid fuels crisis.
But in case we ever do start using nuclear for personal transportation, I’ll call you to do the crash tests.
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Comment by hoz
2008-06-20 10:35:59
Should China successfully develop the pebble bed nuclear reactor, there is in theory no small size limitations. The technology was developed in the 1940s at U Wisconsin, never used in the US because it does not make fissionable material - no bomb materials. Possibly the safest nuclear reactors possible.
If the US were to try to make nuclear reactors, the current waiting list from Mitsubishi is 12 years for a containment vessel. Mitsubishi is the only manufacturer of containment vessels. oops
Comment by tresho
2008-06-20 11:36:48
If the US were to try to make nuclear reactors, the current waiting list from Mitsubishi is 12 years for a containment vessel. But, we need more nuclear reactors TODAY, not 12+ years from now!
Comment by tresho
2008-06-20 11:42:21
But in case we ever do start using nuclear for personal transportation, I’ll call you to do the crash tests. You are ignoring the role of cheaper energy in liquid fuel production & conservation. If you have enough energy, you can make just about anything from it, including converting coal to liquid motor fuel & boiling liquids out of oil shale. Nuke power can also be used on railroads, which would free up diesel for trucks. If nuke power were used to heat homes in the Northeast, they could dispense with using #2 fuel oil, etc., etc.
So much could have been done with the $ wasted on the housing bubble.
Comment by Rental Watch
2008-06-20 13:55:11
Or plug-in hybrids, or just plain electric cars…
Comment by implosion
2008-06-20 16:44:21
Hoz,
“…never used in the US because it does not make fissionable material - no bomb materials.”
Pu for weapons came from reactors at Hanford in WA. HEU was generated at Oak Ridge, TN. Tritium used to come from reactors the Savannah River Site in SC; it is now produced in rods at a TVA reactor and extracted at Savannah River. US has kept defense and commericial nuclear programs separate.
Can the MSM possibly milk the Saudi Oil Summit anymore? Seriously, what do they expect to happen to oil prices as a result? Always looking for miracles they are - desperation seeps through these thin headlines.
After all, the princes are probably just holding this summit to scope out some new Western hotties for their harems.
It’s like the Fed and interest rates. They are jawboning in a vain attempt to get prices significantly lower. A combination of these factors, such as China’s price increase announced yesterday, Saudi summit, limits on “speculators” could drive the price down, short-term. Long term, I don’t see any way out, primarily because of the way our brains are wired. We literally do have cave man brains that have an unconscious desire to consume energy. That is what makes us attractive to the opposite sex. More money, more power, more luxurious goods. As long as that is the “ideal” for our society, then we are screwed. If we suddenly start worshipping bike riding, patchy clothes wearing, garden-growing, community-currency using types as our ideal, we might have a chance, but Madison Ave. isn’t likely to embrace that concept anytime soon.
That’s the problem with Peak Oil and why it is likely to continue being poo-pooed. There’s no sponsorship. Ultimately, nobody really “profits” from it.
Hey…it worked in the 60’s …for a short time anyway…ops, sorry…those same person’s are the ones running(or should I say are ruining today’s economy)…
lol
I say, we should all return to the lifestyle of the 60’s. Everyone wore jeans(patched), drove VWs ($1,300 new), gas at 23 cents a gal., good wages at $6,000/yr.
Now if we could only get rid of Ipods, Blackberries and computers…
lol
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Comment by lostcontrol
2008-06-20 06:37:19
I sure do miss the cold war sans Vietnam…
It looks like we went from a cold war to a hot peace…and globalization…
Question are we better off today than we were 38 years ago?
Where’s that bucket of water that I can stick my head in?
lol
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-06-20 06:42:23
“…drove VWs ($1,300 new)…”
Working on old VWs is quite fun, just like tinkering with a bicycle - much more so than finger humping a Blackberry. The aftermarket parts available for them nowadays really adds possibilities.
Comment by lostcontrol
2008-06-20 06:53:59
Edge, VWs could be repaired by the owner. Heck, with a tree, or a couple of wood blocks, you could pull the engine and transmission. That dam clutch plate seemed to alway need replacing. You had to buy a special wood tool to align the clutch plate with the engine.
Hey, no electronics here. The people’s car…
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-06-20 07:13:53
A lot of what this society is searching for was lost when it gave up the freedom and ability to repair and mend its possessions.
Granted, there are limits, and most certainly technology is not all bad. Still, just because some goatee guy puts an eagle decal on the rear window of his plastic pickup it does not mean he’s his own man.
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-06-20 07:50:39
How True
I high school we build our own Am radio and walkie talkie, learned to use a soldering gun…..my father was a bricklayer p/t carpenter so we had the big DeWalt circular saw in the basement. we fixed our our bikes, tires…..and when we couldn’t then we took it to a pro and paid them…..
I am astonished at how many people on Craigslist and Ebay, announce to the world ….. i dunno much about this stereo/ item but it lights up and i have no wires to test it…or it did work last time i threw it in my closet, and still want a high price.
——————————————————–
A lot of what this society is searching for was lost when it gave up the freedom and ability to repair and mend its possessions.
Comment by lostcontrol
2008-06-20 08:35:43
There is nothing worst than being controlled by your possessions.
..not a real ego booster to be totally helpless at doing anything other than taking out the trash and going to work in which you could be replaced/outsourced…
What in the h*ll is the world coming to? Heck, if I was a female looking for a mate, what would my criteria be? …good looking, responsible for taking out the trash and showing up on time for work?
Thats all they wrote, folks!
Comment by Wickedheart
2008-06-20 09:20:22
aNYCdj
Craigslist is full of idiots. I see items that have been listed and relisted for over a year. A few thousand people have seen their crap, you think they’d get a clue nobody wants it but no. They list the widget in every catagory. Some relist their item everyday. The real crazy ones list their item several times a day.
Real f-tards. I love it when they say this or that is broken but it should be an “easy fix” or it’s dirty but “should clean up easily”. What are they trying to say, that they are just hella lazy? Frequently the item is so nestled in squalor you can’t even see it. You’d think if you wish to sell an item you could take 5 minutes clean it or clear your junk from it.
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2008-06-20 09:39:46
“What in the h*ll is the world coming to? Heck, if I was a female looking for a mate, what would my criteria be? …good looking, responsible for taking out the trash and showing up on time for work?”
If responsibility and gainful employment were key choices for mate selection, our species would not be in the mess it is in.
Meanwhile, in Baltimorgue, you can RENT spinners for your g-ride to attract the ladies. Because nothings says “mating potential” like poor taste AND lousy financial sense. I weep for our future!
Comment by GrittyToasterWaffleGuy
2008-06-20 10:45:34
“I am astonished at how many people on Craigslist and Ebay, announce to the world ….. i dunno much about this stereo/ item but it lights up and i have no wires to test it…or it did work last time i threw it in my closet, and still want a high price.”
Check out the ipod selection on ebay sometime. A couple of months ago I was looking for a used one to leave hooked to the adapter in my car. Reserve prices of like $50 and up for dozens upon dozens of nanos and 3rd generation (i.e. 2-3 years old) units described as “sad Mac face, not sure what’s wrong” or dead battery or cracked screen, etc. I finally found a guy on craigslist who had one of relatively recent vintage with a cracked screen that he sold me for $35. Perfect since it plays through (and it controlled by) the head unit and I never look at the screen anyway.
Here’s a really good explanation of the summit from one of the moderators at the lifeaftertheoilcrash forum.
“Once upon a time OPEC could easily manipulate oil prices thru raising or lowering production. Oil prices were a compromise between the desires of the oil companies and the desires of the economists. It was a good solution for everyone involved, a win for the Saudis, a win for the oil companies..
“Enter today. There is no excess production left. Maybe .5 million barrels a day, but we will see… The economists have been screaming to get prices up, needing the rally in all commodities to offset their losses in the lending debacle, needing the rises to speculate the profits to stay solvent.
“But the economy is milked out. Its time to open the spigots, increase production, drop the price of oil, and profit from the drop. Its how its always been done…
“Except now it isnt gonna happen. Now the commodity is scarce enough to engender bidding, and this, coupled with no spare capacity disallows a good price drop…
“Our controllers are pissed. The Saudis wont play ball. The Saudis cant…
“So we are stuck in a situation where they are making the lions share of the money, profiting the most, profiting in a way that will continue to drain the importers and enrich themselves. Eventually they will end up with all the cookies…
“But this will never happen. The Saudis are realists. They know damned well what oil takes to extract, and who is getting what margin. They also know that if the present margin continues it makes an excellent investment for America to pay for the war to take their oil. It pencils out, its just business…
“There are elements that would love to do this, have planned and schemed for years…
“The Saudis know that a fair slice is better than nothing, and are prepared to play ball, play fair. The problem is a new game must be made, new rules. The old game is dead. A new game must be defined or their Kingdom is lost. Its in everyones best interests to get a new game, a new understanding, and new rules. It will be painful for everyone, and no one trusts anyone, yet it must be done if Saudi is going to remain an entity…
“The question is how to effect this. Will it be a quota system?? Its hard to picture how this will play, but its certain that the current market mechanics must be overcome to put oil in a extraction cost plus reasonable profit position. Our economy depends on it, as does the very entity of the Saudi royal family.”
Or does the game change? The Saudis used to deal with their excess profits by “loaning” the money they receive for oil back to us. Do we now dispense with that pretense and just have them hand it over as “tribute” to the empire.
I know this isn’t the most politically correct statement but let’s face it, these are the facts. We defended them from Saddam, now that Saddam is gone we need to defend them from the Shiites. Otherwise, the whole dynamic changes and we are forced to deal directly with the Shiites on oil which will not be favorable.
After all, the princes are probably just holding this summit to scope out some new Western hotties for their harems.
This might not be far from the truth. A former coworkers Dad was a diplomat (non US) who served in the middle east. She told me that it was quite common for the princes to marry western hotties for the sole purpose of sireing children. The women were given a great deal of leeway and were allowed to live part time in Europe. The deal was to have a baby, upon which they would be cut loose with a generous annuity.
“Do you really think the cost of a gallon of gasoline is going to doom suburbia?”
How about the houses reaching 50 years old and being passed down to poorer people who can’t pay as much in taxes, at the same time as the waves of workers hired as suburban communities expanded reaching retirement age with a guaranteed pension that isn’t adequately pre-funded? Older suburbs were facing problems without the gasoline, which hurts newer suburbs. In the city, we are already used to high taxes, poor services, and mixed populations.
You’re right to point out the quality of older suburban housing stock. In my area for every Evanston, Riverside, and Oak Park there are many Schiller Parks, Bensenvilles, Worths, and Maywoods.
These latter examples are stocked with smaller postwar houses that do not lend themselves to rennovation like the turn-of-the-century houses found in the former group. A lot of that housing is very small, frame and not brick, and on slabs. Those with the money to rennovate would not waste their efforts on them. Instead those areas will decline until they can be raised en masse and provide a “clean slate” for some future round of investment.
Off-shoring only works because people can work remotely.
I suspect we’re going to see more people working from home, or working sometimes from small satellite offices, or the use of the internet to help arrange carpools, etc. as a way to offset expensive commutes.
Having your own little lawn, no matter how far away from work is a tough one to try to keep from people–and I think we’ll find people will go to extraordinary lengths to keep a suburban home lifestyle.
Switching from gas guzzlers is NOT the answer.
The construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 20 barrels (840 gallons) of oil. Ultimately, the construction of a car will consume an amount of fossil fuels equivalent to twice the car’s final weight.
It says a lot that all we can focus on is how to keep the cars running.
But of course our gov’t has been heavily lobbied for the last 20 years to prevent implementing the most obvious, namely increasing the C.A.F.E. standards to make care more fuel efficient and going away from SUV/gas guzzlers. If we’d have all gone to fuel sippers in the 90’s instead of SUVs this would all be a none issue. But the Detroit would not of had an easy profit center to compete against the imports and big oil would not have us all by the balls right now. Glad I can bike to work!!
For confirmation that the credit crunch is affecting all sectors of the economy, read how clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch had to borrow $100 million because they couldn’t access $300 million invested in the auction rate bond market.
“Abercrombie, which recorded an unrealized loss of $18.8 million on the securities last quarter, plans to hold them until an auction succeeds, the issuer calls the bonds or they mature, according to the quarterly filing. Most of Abercrombie’s auction- rate security holdings are backed by student loans, and 85 percent of them carry top AAA ratings, according to the filing.”
i went into a Abercrombie & Fitch for a gift for my nephew and it was a horrible experience. loud obnoxious music and clothes that are for kids and anorexics
Yesterday I made a big bet (for me) on SDS, the Ultrashort S&P500 ETF. I’m hoping to see a 30-50% crash starting sometime between now and the end of the year.
Where did the FBI learn to fish? They wait till they have 400 brokers on the hook before they reel them in.
I bet a whole lot of others got zero sleep last night.. tossing.. turning.. thinkin about picking up a couple new shredders ASAP… a new HDrive. Go long on Office Depot?
It is a number thrown out to make it appear that they are doing something. There are 50,000 licensed Mortgage Brokers in California - 400 = less than 1% are crooked?
From what i’ve heard this first sweep was limited to cases of what was essentially bank robbery.. cash-out collusion between broker-flippers, plus tax evasion, money laundering, etc… the worst of the worst they’ve discovered so far.
A local TV news blurb claimed the FBI has a list of thousands of brokers yet to be arrested, but i haven’t found confirmation on the net.
My only problem is that this is too little too late. Where are we going to put thousands of brokers if they carry a jail sentence? We spend far too much on prisons as it is. Maybe stripping them of their license and a huge fine might help, but if these guys are unemployed now, collecting will be a problem.
This is a re-post from yesterday’s Florida thread:
Palmetto, you still out there? I had a meeting in Bradenton and lunch in Palmetto today (now yesterday). It’s a lot more laid back than Pinellas. Are you retired, or do you work? I’m just curious as to what attracts you or keeps you in that area. My job is firmly mid-Pinellas, I just wonder if I’d like a less hectic place.
Prices in South Florida right now are at and lower (in places) to prices we saw for similar properties back when we went house-hunting in late 2003 to Jan 2004 . (We gave up, disgusted by prices)
I figure that if it keeps going down. they’ll be back down to 2000 prices (mebbe) in a year to two and we can, if we wish, start looking again.
But, honestly, if we find someone who wants to rent to us for a two-year lease (house, not condo/apt) near hubby’s job–and they aren’t underwater or in danger of foreclosure–I think I might prefer renting, and just keep looking to see how low they’ll get while becoming familiar with the coveted neighborhood (ie, one that saves gas/commute time). And the neighborhood in question is a good one (low crime, high median wage, decent houses).
The renting option is smart and it would be great to get one in the neighborhood you think you might want to eventually buy in. It may be hard to get a 2 year lease on a single family home in a desirable area though because such homes are usually not purchased as rental properties but have become rentals properties by sellers that cant get the price they want or need and are trying to ride it with hopes the market will rebound any time. Also, regardless if they are underwater or facing foreclosure now, prices should be another 25% or more lower in two years, thus, they may very well enter that situation during your rental period. I would rent even if you can just get a one year lease, but if you can get two that would be great. I wish you the best of luck and think you are making a smart decision.
“It may be hard to get a 2 year lease on a single family home in a desirable area”
I’ve done just that. It takes time, but I’ve got a great place, a great landlord and a fantastic location. I say go for very affluent areas, chances are you’ll find a professional who understands the situation and can afford the carrying costs.
I should add, as my offering in the deal, I handed over 24 post-dated checks with the signed lease. Do it, this will give the landlord a lot of relief as they can deposit the checks at their leisure and not worry about when they’ll see you or if its lost in the mail. I even gave them 5 days advance on the date so the checks clear by the 1st of each month. If you want an awesome LL, be an awesome renter.
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Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-06-20 10:02:27
I used to send my nice Landlady six months rent in advance. That was I place I stayed at twelve years.
but the guy practically owns the place free and clear and fancies himself to be an “investor”
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Comment by Meerteekah
2008-06-20 08:56:50
Thanks, all.
I’d certainly want to be a GREAT renter, and ideally, would find one of those terrific landlords who has an older house they’ve pretty much paid for so that they are still making money off a reasonable rent.
As far as paying on time, shoot, I’m in the habit of paying AHEAD. I hate late fees on anything and I never carryover a credit card balance. I hate paying interest, too. And my credit rocks!
Rising corn prices threaten U.S. ethanol output
page 2 Corn futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade indicate ethanol producers are facing much higher costs than they can reap by selling their product.
There are about as many farmers in the District of Columbia as there are fingers on my foot. In the new farm bill, however, the University of the District of Columbia will receive $10 million for agricultural research
I knew those employees of the govt. were on something (house, senate, administration, fed and the supremes)…Nothing in this country shocks me anymore, and I remember a lot of things in the past would make me blush…even for an xmarine.
I heard pete my old neighbor was growing pot and the landlady threatened to call the sherriff. I also heard the walls were all moldy and the floors were bare cement. Pete used to play DJ music that drove Ouro to distraction. But, the smokers downstairs messed me up more.
I think one of the more silly parts of the housing bill is the clause about should the value of the property go up ,the bailed out homeowner would have to share part of the proceeds with the government . Oh sure ,the borrowers that bought property for appreciation are going to give up any appreciation to pay back the government .Joey brought up the fact that the problem would be changing non-recourse loans to full-recourse loans also . That would not be legally smart of the part of a homeowner actually . I mean what is Senator Dodds trying to pull here . Did the government take any polls on what % of homeowners would be even interested in this program ?
Since real estate is not likely to see appreciation for years ,how likely will any bail-out be paid back,and why would a borrower want to do that ?
The other part of the bail-out package that allows for the government to buy up foreclosures that are already vacant and in need of re-hab is so clearly a lender bail-out . Why can’t the damn lender take care of its own trashed foreclosure ? This part of the bill isn’t helping any homeowners.
When the lawmakers attempt to proceed with a bill that has no basis in reality to achieve the goal that they say that bill was meant for …being saving the poor homeowners …than there must be a hidden agenda for the purpose of that bill. It’s so insulting .
In the end, even if the housing package is passed, I can guarantee you recipients are not going to have to share any home price appreciation with the Government. That was simply put into the bill to win over votes needed to pass. It will be just like the conforming loan limits, initially they said that raising them were temporary, but there are already calls to make them permanent. In a few years (or less), they’ll rewrite the housing bill to ensure that deadbeats get to keep “their” appreciation [of course, they'll have to stay in the house for a decade or more to actually realize any gains].
I agree with what you say . My problem is I dislike bogus bills that are passed for the purpose of changing them down the road,especially when the true intent of the bill is to bail out lenders . Also the bill just isn’t fair because it makes responsible homeowners and renters pay for other peoples sins .
People don’t feel the pain of bogus bills until the day the cost of them come back to haunt them ,which is usually delayed . Also, the low Fed discount rates have not benefited the people in terms of lower money costs and it’s just served to create inflation and low rewards to savers .
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Comment by Anthony
2008-06-20 19:49:41
I agree completely. As I see it, the prudent have already directly bailed out the foolish, vis a vis low interest rates on savings and the rampant escalation in food costs being borne by all of us. And, the loser deadbeat homemoaners already have been rewarded since they can stay in the homes without paying the mortgage for a year or more without getting evicted. Sounds pretty sweet!
“Six people from a downtown San Diego real estate firm are among more than 400 real estate insiders who have been swept up in a massive, nationwide crackdown on mortgage fraud.”
It appears those targeted in the San Diego area might typically have been running other types of fraud rings, but had migrated into real estate because of the fast, easy, and big money to be made at the time. Their methods seem a little more sophisticated and the amounts extracted a little greater than some of the other types of real estate fraud at the time, but not by much.
However, I suspect there were many, many more less sophisticated individuals extracting far more collectively in fraud in the same area at the same time. These have yet to be prosecuted.
Some of the loan criminals got so bold that early defaults are a clear pathway to the worst offenders .A lot of those seminars groups were a haven for the criminals setting up their deals . Heck,for a while there ,the criminals were advertising themselves on every telephone
pole with the advertising of “Make 20k a month assisting a real estate investor.” Heck ,the goof-ball criminals are advertising on the
internet ,still to this very day .
With some gas stations asking cash only what is this going to tdo to the credit card market? Will this spread to other retail businesses?
Looks like the credit card company’s are FUBAR, and the middle class do to the fact they live on credit. I dont think this country is going to survive the depression that is coming.
Great point. I have a story of a friend who played the CC companies.
He wracked up about 40k in CC debt and never paid a dime back. The CC companies hounded him relentlessly for two years. Finally they went to court. The final outcome was this, friend agreed to pay 5k back in return for the CC companies wiping off his poor credit habits from the credit scoring bureaus.
Now if you’re a loan officer and this guy shows up with a decent credit score and a good income, you are about to be taken to the cleaners courtesy of the CC companies.
Last I heard, this guy is now realtor in California.
I know someone who walked from 100K+ and never had a moment’s distress over it. All you need to do is get one of those call screener things so the collectors can’t get through, be sure and maintain a po box so you can be aware if any of them are actually sending them to an attorney for suit (and if they do, those suits are pretty easy to defeat), wait the obligatory 3-4 years for your state’s statute of limitations to expire, and then go through the hassle of disputing and removing them from your credit report. A lot of collectors are so dumb, you can double dip by suing THEM for FDCPA/ FCRA violations and recover.
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated Announces 2008 Second Quarter Net Charge-Off and Loan Loss Provision Expectations and Confirms Franklin Credit Management Corporation Relationship Continues to Perform to Expectations
“…Huntington also noted that it expects the 2008 second quarter provision for credit losses to exceed net charge-offs by approximately $55-$65 million, compared to $40.2 million in the first quarter, reflecting continued economic weakness in many of its markets. The outlook for the second half of 2008 is for the allowance for loan and lease losses to increase at a slower pace than in the first half of 2008.
In addition, Huntington announced that the Franklin Credit Management Corporation (Franklin) relationship continues to perform consistent with expectations and that through May, second quarter cash flows were slightly higher than those in the comparable 2008 first quarter period. Huntington also expects to remove the tranche A portion of the Franklin loans from non-performing asset status in the second quarter. The tranche A loans were $786 million as of March 31, 2008….” http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080619/clth106.html?.v=55
Huntington Bancshares Inc. rose $1.43, or 28 percent, to $6.57 for the biggest gain in the S&P 500. The Ohio-based bank, which had lost 60 percent of its market value this year, said uncollectible loans will be within its second-quarter forecast.
…wait the obligatory 3-4 years for your state’s statute of limitations to expire,
Do the peeps even know there’s a time limit on debt collection?
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Comment by Carlos Cisco
2008-06-21 00:18:28
Not really a time limit to debt collection; you can buy the paper and put them on the dialer if the paper is 20 years old. It maybe off bureau and off stats, but you can still call them and ask them if they’d like to clear up their debt. That paper never really dies unless wiped out by a bankruptcy court.
Dang, there goes the benefit of our 3% cash back credit card (Chase Visa). We have been using it just for gas and groceries, and of course paying the full balance each month.
I suspect the gas stations going cash only will lose customers to those who continue to accept CCs. Few people carry $50+ in currency for local gas purchases, and fewer still in interstate travel for really long trips. Cash only stations will be magnets for armed robbery, as will their customers. Now, a discount for cash purchases vs. CC makes sense, whether or not allowed by the CC companies.
Russian Billionaire Part of Record Deal For Trump Mansion (WSJ)
You know we hate to use the B-word, but sorry, this totally calls for an ag bubble alert. What more symbolism could we need than a Russian fertilizer billionaire paying $100 million for a Palm Beach mansion owned by US real estate billionaire (?) Donal Trump. Seriously.
“A ploy that’s emerged in the Tampa Bay area is for a homeowner to short sell his home to a friend or relative. Then he “rents” the house back. Voila! A $2,000 mortgage payment becomes a $1,200 rental payment.
“Suddenly, everything is on the table. Offshore drilling, Alaska drilling, nuclear power, wind, solar, flex-fuel cars, plug-in cars are all increasingly attractive options and John McCain seems alive to the need to go there while Obama is strangely passive. During the Democratic primary, he opposed a gas tax holiday and continues to be against offshore and Alaska drilling and squishy on nuclear power. That leaves turning down your thermostat and walking to work as the Democratic policies.”
Um. The gas tax holiday would have been an indirect subsidy to gas sellers - not consumers. Obama was dead on on that one. (Clinton’s version would have then taken taxes back from the gas sellers - making the whole thing revenue neutral and a complete waste of time.)
And what in the so-called ‘Dem mantra’ has to change exactly?
Take off the blinders. McCain is the worse presidential candidate of the last thirty years. I didn’t think they could find someone worse than Bush, but they did. Amazing.
So, let’s see … Big Oil is sitting on 68 million acres of federal land that could potentially produce an additional 5 million barrels of oil and 45 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, but rather than develop those resources, they need to grab more. Uh-huh.
This is coming from the same gang that cynically exploited our understandable fears after 9-11 to launch an unnecessary and unprovoked war against a country that never attacked us. Now, they are trying to exploit our economic anxieties to give away more public resources. Wake up, America. We’re being played once again.
When you attend a Obama festival you have to fill out a questionaire so his handlers know which postions he will take for the day.
I think if the sheep vote him in they are going to be disapointed when they find the change he was talking about was to put more change in his pocket at everyones expense.
Nice try, Ms. Pelosi….how convenient you talk about being played when those Big Oil boys who “potentially” can produce all that oil have to get permission from a Democratic congress, who would like to play Big Oil out of existence
I consider attempting to assassinate a former POTUS to be an attack upon the US. The invasion should have begun in 1993.
I’m sure you also think that the millions of deaths on both sides of World War 1 were justified when the Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was assasinated in 1914.
My guess is you’re ex-military, using terms like POTUS for that meat-sack currently in the White House. I was US Army, 11Bravo… in six years of service I never found much in the way of independent thought or reason from the leadership, never mind the rank and file.
That kind of thinking is the reason the founding fathers created an electoral voting system…
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Comment by tresho
2008-06-20 13:21:32
I’m sure you also think that the millions of deaths on both sides of World War 1 were justified when the Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was assasinated in 1914. There were a few complicating factors & nuances about the situation in 1914 you have conveniently side-stepped.
Comment by Northeastener
2008-06-20 14:28:15
There were a few complicating factors & nuances about the situation in 1914 you have conveniently side-stepped.
I didn’t side-step any such thing. I pointed out the absurdity of the statement “I consider attempting to assassinate a former POTUS… an attack upon the US.” as if that is justification for thousands of US KIA, tens of thousands wounded/disabled, and a budget deficit run amok from war spending.
History doesn’t repeat, but it certainly rhymes. The political and social unrest of Serbia under Austrian rule and the military alliances of the time certainly made for a volatile situation. It doesn’t change the fact that Ferdinand’s death was used as an excuse by Franz Conrad to decalre war and fuel the Kaiser’s imperialist agenda… the result: millions dead and a defeated Germany pushed to the economic brink, setting the stage for a fascist like Hitler to come to power and a resurgent Germany to wage war again in 1939. Only this time tens of millions suffered or died.
An ignorance of history is rampant in this country. Many wrap themselves in the Amercian flag, declaring their patriotism for all to see while we wage yet another war with no thought to the consequences. Who benefits, but the executives and investors running the military-industrial complex? Certainly not the veterans risking their lives on the battlefield. Who benefits, but the politicians who spread fear amongst the citizens such that we beg for their “protection”.
War is peace. Ignorance is strength and all that jazz…
Comment by exeter
2008-06-20 14:30:28
“My guess is you’re ex-military, using terms like POTUS for that meat-sack currently in the White House.”
I’ll wager he’s a chickenhawk. I wonder how many of the ideological cowards who still support DoughHead have served their country?
Rationalization #246 for the Iraq Debacle: “Dat dang Saddam tried to git my daddy so I done got ‘im!”
Well, I suppose it makes more sense than all that “Weapons of Mass Destruction/Mushroom Clouds/Drones of Death/Mobile BioLabs” and all the rest of the bovine excrement that was spread wide and deep back in ‘03.
Yep… Right on que. I come back from the morning constitutional and the market tanks… WOW!!!! Maybe I’m some kind of superhero with the power to destroy financial markets!!!! Hmmm, lessee now, *concentrate* Yep! Dropped the market another 5 points Whoa!!!!! I’m the 5th Horseman of the Apocalypes!!! I’m the SHNIZZ!!! I’m -seriously deluded-…
Hey Mr Bear, is this the “Finanacial Innovation” that helps ordinary folks with retirement accounts feel good about the future? Maybe, they would do better with an ordinary “old fashioned” : “savings account”
About the Malicious Mortgage bust yest., one of the guys had a house in Moab, small world (I lived there 8 years):
From the Salt Lake Tribune (sltrib dot com):
Federal authorities announced Thursday a sweeping crackdown on mortgage fraud that has led to charges against more than 400 people nationwide, including two Utahns.
…
State Rep. Paul Ray, R-Clinton, who has worked in recent years to pass legislation aimed at reducing mortgage fraud in Utah, applauded the agency’s decision to announce the hundreds of cases at once.
“The only way to send a message to the public that there’s a chance you’re going to get caught is to throw 400 indictments out there at one time,” Ray said.
…
The two Utahns are Jerry C. Huff, 49, of Hurricane, and Bryan D. Conrad, 37, of Salt Lake City. Each was indicted on separate and unrelated charges relating to mortgage fraud.
Authorities say Huff lied to convince a bank to provide him with a $250,000 second mortgage on his home in Moab, a loan on which he has failed to make payments.
According to the indictment, Huff lied about the condition and value of his home, overstated his income and submitted false documents, such as a fake appraisal, so that his loan would be approved.
The indictment also says Huff submitted copies of personal tax forms as part of his loan application when in reality he hadn’t filed tax returns for those years.
…
Nationally, banks reported nearly 53,000 cases of suspected mortgage fraud last year, up from more than 37,000 a year earlier and about 10 times the level of reports in 2001 and 2002, according to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.
The most common type of mortgage fraud was inflating income or assets to qualify for a loan, followed by forging documents, inflating appraisals and misrepresenting a buyer’s intent to occupy a property as a primary residence. Loans based on primary residences are looked at more favorably by lenders.
Utah is ranked fifth nationally in loans showing signs of fraud or misrepresentation on a per-capita basis, based on 2007 data analyzed by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute, an affiliate of information provider ChoicePoint.
Ray said Utah needs more people to investigate and prosecute such crimes.
“This is such a big problem, we don’t have enough people to deal with all of it,” he said.
lost, based on the causes listed for arrest, someone better start building more prisons. We are talking about millions…
Possible solution-CA sub contracts out our prisoners to other states (public and private prisons). Maybe we could send them to Mexico in exchange for their illegals.
lol
Now where else are you going to get room, three squares, TV, health care and constant attention from your roomie. Though I hear it better in the Fed prison than the state pokie.
Besides what better place the fraudsters than a Mexican jail? As I understand it (no personal experience), inmates have to pay for their own space on the ground and their own food. Forget TV and health insurance, though you still personal attention from all 600 inmates in a 100 x 100 ft. cell.
lol
Well, at least law enforcement is finally stating openly that lying on loan applications is against the law .They even mentioned the misrepresenting of buyers intent to occupy a property as a primary residence as a possible violation . How many borrowers/speculators purchase five properties at once saying that they intended to occupy them as their primary residence?
In my view ,there reached a point in the housing mania where a high percentage of the loan packages were fraudulent in one way or
another . The loan crime wave makes Dodds bail-out proposals even more absurd .
That’s not to say that I don’t think that some of the loans that were written for buyers, that did tell the truth on their loan applications,
weren’t faulty toxic loans that weren’t good for long term loans . I mean if the lender has a good borrower like that ,they should give them a break and give them a loan that was designed more for long term ownership . The lenders can do this on their own however ,but fraudulent borrowers and speculators can’t be saved IMHO .
My idea on bail-outs is re-writing loans for people who could of gotten a better loan at the time they applied ,but they were hoodwinked into
taking a loan that the commissioned salespeople where pushing because they made more commissions on them , It does not offend me that a borrower gets a loan that they should of gotten to begin with.
But, giving people loans that they don’t deserve is offensive to me ,especially if they committed fraud ,or they were a short term speculator ,or they were playing the system for refinance money .
Breaking news… Ford to delay intro of the new F150 - This is huge news, the price of gas has gotten to the point that it’s made an entire class of vehicles functionally obsolescent for most consumers.
You only need a pickup truck if you’re hauling stuff. I never understood the big vehicle status symbol thing. Maybe it has to do with other *shortcomings*…
I have a big Toyota Tundra with a camper on it and I feel very conspicuous driving it, and that’s in the land of big pickups and lots of tourists with campers. Took a tour in a Hummer once and felt like a poser. Feel quite comfortable in an old VW bug or junker car. Not into bling. But the Ford F series are THE trucks out here for farmers/ranchers/construction/oilpatch, etc.
Yea, but of all people, you’ve got a legit purpose for your rig. Around here, folks (town dwellers) have 2 and 3 of the biggest 4×4s around. 1 each for hubby, wifey, and the biggest jacked up monster for 16 year old son to drive to HS.
By the way, the folks at the end of my street with the incognito home for sale are now listing on 2 realtor websites… Can you say “desperation”?
(Blush) Sorry ’bout the minivan thing that I’d stick ya with! CNY has some great dig sites and some beautiful scenery. I know you could be happy for at least a week.
Note: As a former white water raft guide and a man who can take a truck places where I just hold my breath, I have to take my dh w/me. (which reminds me Auger-inn, I have this great camping location up by you if you’ve got a 4 wheel drive)
I never understood the big vehicle status symbol thing. Maybe it has to do with other *shortcomings*…
One long-delayed project my girlfriend and I keep meaning to get around to is … making bumper stickers that say “Does this make my PENIS look bigger?” and putting the stickers on big SUV bumpers under cover of darkness.
There’s a Hummer near my house whose owner is begging to be outed.
(Though an F-150 seems like a practical vehicle for some — unlike, say, Hummers and Escalades.)
Iknew a guy who had a bumper sticker that said “women who know me call me Mr. Big” I put tape over the wo in women and the g in Big, hedrove around town for a few days with a bumper sticker that said “men who know me call me Mr. Bi “
A friend of mine used to go out to the bars wearing a button on her shirt that said “No Teenie-Weenies”. You have no idea how many men blanched & ran away when they read it
I always laugh when I ask people why they need a truck and they respond that they “haul stuff”. Turns out, most of they time they haul something 5-6 times per year (annual garage clean-out, trip to dump, supplies, etc.).
I always thought it was silly to spend countless hundreds more on gas, and thousands more for the equipment (not to mention insurance, etc.) when you can rent a U-Haul for $30 for a day when you need it.
If there were a way to invest in Thule (private company) or Yakima (I also think private), I would do it. I foresee lots of people buying smaller cars and putting racks on the roof, recognizing that for the few times per year that they really need the extra space of the SUV, they can put the stuff on a roof-mounted carrier.
My brother is a diesel tech for Ford. Ford bought out the dealership he works ford in the IE and is closing it down. They are also looking to close 9 other dealerships in the area.
Ford and International are in a big legal fight over the 6.0 engine and the 6.4 engine. There suing International for billions due to poor engineering. A lot of mechanics are going to be out of work.
A Ford F-150 is supposed to be the vehicle most likely to be driven by “The Millionaire Next Door”.
I’ve had this book tossed in my face as an antidote to Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad Poor Dad. Oddly enough, the author of MND had to sue his publisher for royalties. Maybe he should have gone to Michael Lechter (husband of Sharon Lechter, coauthor of RDPD), an intellectual proterty atty who stripped the Cleveland Browns name from Art Modell.
Breaking news… Ford to delay intro of the new F150 Meanwhile in other countries Ford continues to profit from selling its trucks with small turbo-diesels that get 40+mpg. None are available in the USA. I believe GM & Chrysler have similar products that do well outside of the USA. Ford will be bringing its Transit van, extremely popular in the UK, to the US soon as the Ford Transit Connect van. Unfortunately, its 2.2L turbodiesel will not be available here, the gas engines that it will come with get maybe 20 mpg, so no real difference to an F150’s mileage.
An opposing trend in a downturn is the tendency to hang onto vehicles longer. An enterprising mechanic should be able to make a living - just not as cushy, perhaps.
I’ve got my trust Taurus in the shop today to have the relay board for the air conditioning circuit replaced. Not too bad now, but I’ll need it by August when the temps hit 112 degrees actual and 120 on the heat and humidity index… WHEW!!!
The guys in our shop have so much time on their hands lately that I pay for parts and they go get ‘em and work on my truck for free. Can’t beat that.
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Comment by tresho
2008-06-20 13:42:59
The 2nd time the A/C went out on my Chrysler minivan I told the shop to remove the A/C compressor & install an idler pulley & non-A/C serpentine belt, and drove it for 2 more years with natural air. The repairman was stunned & had never heard of anyone ever doing that before until I told him about it. Way cheaper than fixing the A/C. I suspect many non-critical auto repairs won’t be done at all in the coming economy.
Comment by ozajh
2008-06-20 21:57:31
I suspect many non-critical auto repairs won’t be done at all
Unfortunately, in a lot of cases, when times get tough “non-critical” includes things like replacing tyres and fixing brakes/steering.
I do the books for a a repair facility. Business is booming at our shop but I hear the dealerships’ repair facilities have been hurting. I think it’s a push - some people will hold the car longer but some people will delay repairs. Many times I have overheard a technician tell a customer they need something done and the customer will opt to only get the car driveable.
We’re probably doing well because we’ve made a push to go to small companies and hospitals running small fleets in the area and cut deals.
Has anyone seen the article from the NYT on the massive air exercises being held by Israel that look like a work-up to an attack on Iran? I think it will happen to say the truth. I’ve tried to post the link but it keeps getting lost.
Did anyone just catch the report on CNBC where the reporter in LA took the train to work instead of her car? She was not happy and sneeringly dismissed her walk to work as “only nobodies walk in LA”. Then after admitting that it could save up to 50K in 5 years for many commuters, she ended the piece by saying “there may be some people that would find that it’s worth it…” WTF!!!!!!!!!
This is why we are going to have SUCH a tough time….
Attended fundraiser in Newport Harbor this week and made a point of speaking to as many folks as possible about what was going on in their lives at present.
The people who owned oil wells were very very happy right now. The land barons, however, spoke longingly of dropping out, building a perfect little self-sustaining place in the islands/country where they could be with their families. It seemed to me that most of the over 40’s attendees knew the jig was up and were trying to overcome inertia and come to grips with the new reality they were facing…not so much a loss of fortune, as a loss of rootedness.
It was most interesting to see uber-Republicans both subdued and sullen. The biggest Bush Boosters on the planet were openly scathing (to the point of seething hatred,) of him and his administration…a huge flip-flop from even a year ago.
The party itself was at a newer( extraordinary,) waterfront home, that was itself one of six properties subdivided from the original lot. A new home was being built a few lots over, tented, 12′ fencing, (custom-not chain link,) and on the gate to the job site was an industrial-type 20″x30″ sign firmly prohibiting -among other horrors- dogs, radios, cigarettes, alcohol, loud or excessive talking/profanity, presence on the job site before 7am or after 5pm, or parking work vehicles on the street. Now THERE’s an HOA!
Tomorrow is the 85th birthday bash for a local ranching legend up here in East Yahoo. The guy has hisself a millionairess Lady/Grande Dame, a 78 AND a 7-year-old son, (with fourteen acknowledged in between.) Dry, ascerbic, hysterically funny man. I am at once charmed and terrified by him. Grilled wild boar and Jack… I should get an earful of the same political frustrations from the opposite end of the social spectrum.
I’m betting not many of them want to pull up stakes and leave for a new life in the city.
YMCA of Riverside City & County
Riverside, CA
The Riverside YMCA will have to lay off employees and scrap some summer services to 2,000 children because of the $34.5 million federal grant Indio Youth Task Force officials returned in April. The YMCA was one of several agencies and six Southern California school districts that joined the task force in its application for the 21st Century Community Learning Center Programs Grant. Jackie Fielder, chief program officer and executive director of Moreno Valley and Riverside YMCA, said officials were notified in May 2007 that they would receive $18 million for children’s programming in the western part of the county. The task force announced the award officially on June 28 last year. The Riverside YMCA is facing a budget crisis because it won’t get the grant money and will have to lay off employees, Fielder said. She doesn’t know how many people could lose their jobs or when they will be let go.
I’m little confused by this “because of the $34.5 million federal grant Indio Youth Task Force officials returned in April.” Why would the task force return the money? Does the newspaper article say why?
Lost, once again very compelling video. is that little hell’s falls or some such name?
I did that same river run back in the daze. We made it thru that funny spot w/o a hitch because our guide was knols: national outdoor leadership school. Would you mind playing some japanese koto flute instead of supertramp?
Speaking of sinking, there’s a youtube poster called monette39 who has lots of Colo. River videos that are fun to watch if you like high water. There’s prob. lots of others, too.
Look out! It’s a twister, it’s a twister!
No, it’s a cyclone and some pig men behind the curtain.
The wizard of Oz has spoken.
The great and comical wiz’s on wall st.
Ever wonder why 19 Saudi Arabians can conspire to crash airliners into the World Trade Center, then do it, but then it is Iraq that is invaded and occupied? Why do you think it happened that way, HBBers? I bet the more partisan your politics, left or right, the more off-base your thinking.
Did you ever wonder WHY Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait? Why was that HBBers?
Have you ever wondered WHO makes all the $$$ when oil is going for $135 per barrel? Is it the Saudis? The Iraqis? the Iranians? Exxon-Mobil?
Friends of Bush? All of the above? Or somebody else?
Here’s a little clue. Why have the Saudis consistently sold oil for dollars only? Why would they do that? Who stands to gain from that arrangement? Why does the U.S. not drill in Alaskan fields proven to contain as much oil as we would need to be energy independent, but kept secret from MSM coverage?
Who stands to gain from that arrangement and secrecy?
Why are we seemingly paralyzed by partisan politics on the energy issue that threatens our national security and economy?
Let me suggest that there are international banking concerns, not unrelated to the international banking cartel euphemistically known as the “Federal Reserve Bank”; who are, financially speaking, planning to dine upon YOUR carcass. There is a class of human which rules this planet, and you and I are not among them.
The Saudis have signed agreements with them.
To sell their oil exclusively in dollars, and to continuously in return, buy our Treasury bonds and other Government paper. They were told they would become RICH if they did this. They have. You and I have not.
You and I don’t have personal oil reserves. Saddam did, but would not sign on the dotted line. Iran has oil, but will not sign.
Therefore, the people who actually control this planet decided Saddam had to go. He did. They have also decided Iran’s government must be toppled.
Welcome to tomorrow’s headlines. Don’t even think that the puppet show elections will change anything. “It isn’t the people who cast their votes that make a difference. It’s the people who COUNT the votes that make a difference.”- J. Stalin
“Why does the U.S. not drill in Alaskan fields proven to contain as much oil as we would need to be energy independent”…
Having played a lot of “resource”-style simulation games, I’ve always thought the reason was this: Our country gives pieces of paper with pictures on it to country B for something actually valuable: oil. After a long enough time, country B runs out of oil. Soon countries B, C, D and E run out of oil - they have lots of paper though. At this time country A, the US of A, has huge oil fields to draw from - resources galore -, while all the competing countries have huge mounds of paper and some entries in computers that say they are due even more paper.
When this happens, who will you think got the better deal? When the well’s dry, we know the worth of water.
The one with the resources rules. It’s not about controlling the paper, it’s about controlling the resources. It boggles my mind that more people don’t understand this.
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
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Ben,
Do you ever sleep? Stay tuned Bits and Buckets at 11:07pm PST.
Good morning everyone. I was pretty surprised to log on at 4:20 edt and find a bits all ready for us. Expecting a big day, Ben?
For those unaware, most blog platforms allow you to write an article, or many articles, and choose when they actively publish. On my old blog, I’d pre-write 10 articles over a weekend, and have them publish actively every few hours during the next few business days. Gives the site some “life” but means I can knock out the big stuff in a few hours.
Ben does bust his butt getting stuff together, but I’m sure for the regular posts he just pushes them out at a preset time. I bet this one posted early either due to an error on his part, or an error on his server thinking it was later than it really is.
Aww… you’re shattering my illusions of Ben as a superhuman Blogger, posting at all hours of the day and night.
Spoil sport
I thought it was magic.
For you guys in OC, how much further do you see prices dropping? I know they have to go down more from here but how much do you think? I’d like to buy in Laguna Niguel. I’m hoping to get a 2000+ sq foot place for around 400k. Do you see prices getting there? I’m sitting on the sidelines with a fat down payment, just waiting for the prices to come down much more.
Better have 25% down or more. I think we have shown that in most normal periods real estate is a mediocre investment at best. In the past 30-40 yrs of high inflation it has done OK.
So, save your money and buy invest in some companies with interesting emerging technology.
And I have insomnia again.
I got bombs bursting all night over here by Camp Pendleton.
It sounds like those boom box stereo speakers we pass on the road. Ouro’s war buildup report is that we are building up for a biggy. Let you all know when I hear the choppers in the late night. Between “squish on the street” on cnbc and the bombs, well I sleep less well.
Iran? Oh, too horrible to imagine…
Iran will be attacked. It is needed to secure the bases in the area and “get more cheap oil.”
Funny, though, how oil is not at all cheap today and will be absurdly expensive when Iran is attacked.
Ah, but it WILL let the hedge funds and big banks make a fortune in commodities. Millions of people may starve, freeze, or otherwise suffer and/or die as energy becomes insanely expensive, but that’s “okay” so long as the fat cats get to buy their second weekend yachts.
Miramar was particualry active too. Darn jets kept interupting my friends and I trying to watch a DVD!
Stars End
Great. Yeah, heavy live-fire exercising often means “let’s get ready to strike someone soon” training. If it only went on for a few days I might not worry, but I’ve been hearing about this for longer than that.
If Miramar *and* Pendleton are busy for an extended period of time, that doesn’t spell good news to me. :\
Hey, I bought nice big townhouse there in about `93 for 155k. Sounds about right…
Not sure how far they will go down, but sales are up and prices are still headed down in South OC. I think a lot of the sales are short sales and bank owned properties.
No doubt about that.
Oops. Guess I have no idea how to use “blockquote”.
Key Data Still Suggest A Recession
By Mark Gongloff
Word Count: 484 | Companies Featured in This Article: Coachmen Industries
One spark for the recent selloff in bonds was an assumption the economy would dodge a recession. That’s no sure thing.
Citi warns of further large writedowns
By Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: June 19 2008 23:45 | Last updated: June 19 2008 23:45
Citigroup on Thursday warned of further large writedowns and credit losses in the second quarter, saying its business remained under pressure amid “unprecedented” market conditions.
The announcement, made by Gary Crittenden, Citi’s chief financial officer, sent Citi shares more than 4 per cent lower in New York afternoon trading, although they recovered to close down 1 per cent.
Citi’s warning, which comes after disappointing second-quarter results from Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley, is likely to compound investors’ fears that the credit crunch will weigh on US financial companies for months to come.
“$3B and we are done”
Until the next quarter.
LOL. I just saw the ad “Citi Never Sleeps” on CNBC. I wonder what that means…
Just like the Ditech, “people are smart”
It seems like its Opposite Day every day for these ad campaigns…
I’m waiting for Walmart to come out with “be Patriotic, shop at Wallmart” …uh, nevermind… they’ve been using that lie for years…
I laughed when I saw that ad too. I think it means capital depletion induced insomnia.
Overview: Investors in brittle mood after weak US data
By Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: June 19 2008 18:15 | Last updated: June 19 2008 21:35
A plunge in oil prices sparked a modest Wall Street rebound on Thursday, as investors continue to gauge the willingness of central banks to tighten policy amid slowing economic growth.
“From a risky asset perspective it is not a comfortable investment environment when central banks are looking to raise rates in the face of slow growth,” said Alan Ruskin, strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
“There is disquiet among investors and it is way too early to suggest that global markets have absorbed the consequences of higher energy prices.”
I am surprised that a falling market does not buoy these pub stocks.
Pub operators throw a damper on Footsie
By Neil Hume and Bryce Elder
Published: June 19 2008 08:35 | Last updated: June 19 2008 17:08
Pub companies were under fire as the London market extended its losses over the past two sessions to 153.5 points.
Concerns about debt levels, which are high across the sector, and banking covenants left several pub operators nursing losses of more than 5 per cent.
Punch Taverns was one of the biggest fallers. Its shares dropped 5.8 per cent to 363¾p after Morgan Stanley, one of its corporate brokers, warned clients that Punch’s share price would remain volatile and could easily fall a lot further.
“This is because the company will face a series of balance sheet obstacles over several years,” the broker said as it took the red pen to forecasts.
I am surprised that pubs are not counter-cyclical.
Private locally owned small pubs probably are counter-cyclical. Big publicly owned chains however, are probably not.
The small chains can adapt easily, as the local Chicago pubs I frequent have done. They can quickly go from $1.50 PBR (eww) to $2.00 PBR with few people noticing.
The large chains are tied to a fixed menu, and fixed prices on the menu. I’ve also noticed that some local pubs have more family working there (probably for very little cash) versus the large chain pubs that have a large corporate structure that costs a lot.
My favorite Chicago pub right now (Relax Lounge on Chicago) has these amazing $5 burgers (best in town right now, IMHO) that would cost $10 at the chain stores. Loss leader.
I’ve also noticed that some local pubs have more family working there (probably for very little cash) versus the large chain pubs that have a large corporate structure that costs a lot.
Several of my local favorites are family operated, and they know how to pinch a buck if they have to.
Many pubs recently closed in the town I used to live in back in the UK. Reason: the big breweries were charging too much and customers wouldn’t pay those prices. Unless you are privately owned, you have to buy from that particular brewery.
I am thinking the Democratic Congressional supporters of this legislation may have gotten a bit too full of themselves for their own good.
Veto Threatened for Housing Bill
White House Objects to Funding Plan for FHA Program
By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 20, 2008; Page D02
The White House issued a fresh veto threat yesterday against a plan to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners from foreclosure, raising objections to Senate negotiators’ proposal to fund the program.
Speaking as a good Democrat, even I gotta say this was all politics. The bill would have done relatively little to help the mortgage mess. But now the Dems can say they tried to help, and Bush can say he’s acting fiscally responsible. It’s all a side show.
I think the word you were looking for is ‘kabuki’ and yes, BOTH sides of the aisle have finely honed skills in that particularl art form. And I say that as a loyal little democrat myself
Look, this is classic DC politics and nothing more. Bush said he would veto the first version that used taxpayer money. They modified it so it looked like there was much less taxpayer money at risk and Bush said he was probably OK with it. The OK came at a time when the media had just picked up speed with the stories about poor single mothers who had “bought” into the ownership society and were losing their bank rentals and it seemed to have substantial bipartisan support. Then a scandal broke out with one of the democratic sponsors so they all piled on to keep a democratic congress from having a significant legislative victory in an election year and to embarass the democratic leadership. Also some poles have come out that show the legislation isn’t quite as popular as they previously thought. Also it is turning out that yelling about the price of oil and gas distracts a lot - clearly not all - of attention from housing stuff.
It is just politics.
I told you guys months and months ago that no serious housing bailout would become effective while Bush is president. It is his last chance to seriously claim to be a conservative and that is what he wants as his legacy. There was a short time when I thought it might happen because they had stripped a lot of government guarantees out of it. Not sure how much of that got back in, but the Dodd thing was just the hook that allowed him to go back to his preferred stance. He would have gone back to it eventually even without this scandal. Maybe after thinking about it very hard for a few weeks on the ranch.
I agree polly. Except for this;
“Maybe after thinking about it very hard for a few weeks on the ranch.”
I doubt the idiot-in-chief has ever thought hard about anything in his life except where to get his next beer.
Haven’t you heard? Congress has decided to snub the president’s veto threat and pass the damn thing no matter what. And Frank says he has no intention of investigating Dodd..
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080620/D91DGB9G0.html
Meanwhile, some in the Press are reporting that it Bank of America is behind the bailout, and that BOA lawyers or staffers wrote the actual legislation. The idea is to dump Countrywide’s bad mortgages on the taxpayers, so BOA isn’t stuck with them when it takes Countrywide over. BOA’s contributions to the crooks in Congress are far, far, far larger than Countrywide’s, and have dramatically increased since the takeover’s announcement.
“…they had stripped a lot of government guarantees out of it. Not sure how much of that got back in,…”
$300 bn is the figure the media quotes
Just so no one here is under the impression that the Dems give a shit about your privacy any more than Repubs do, here is a little something that Sen Dodd slipped into the housing bill.
http://www.freedomworks.org/newsroom/press_template.php?press_id=2571
“Washington, DC - Hidden deep in Senator Christopher Dodd’s 630-page Senate housing legislation is a sweeping provision that affects the privacy and operation of nearly all of America’s small businesses. The provision, which was added by the bill’s managers without debate this week, would require the nation’s payment systems to track, aggregate, and report information on nearly every electronic transaction to the federal government. ”
“FreedomWorks Chairman Dick Armey commented: “This is a provision with astonishing reach, and it was slipped into the bill just this week. Not only does it affect nearly every credit card transaction in America, such as Visa, MasterCard, Discover, and American Express, but the bill specifically targets payment systems like eBay’s PayPal, Amazon, and Google Checkout that are used by many small online businesses. The privacy implications for America’s small businesses are breathtaking.”
“Call Congress and Tell Them to Oppose The eBay Reporting Provision in the Housing Bill: 1-866-928-3035″
(Or the whole bill, IMO)
That would put the burden on those companies to turn over that info. Not going to happen without a legal fight.
I had a thought today regarding supposed home value appreciation. Case Shiller seams to state that home values will appreciate on average around 1% above inflation annually. Let’s assume that this is true and observe the following hypothetical situation. A man buys a house in 1908 for the price of 50 bars of gold. At 1% appreciation, this house or an equivalent house will cost 135 bars of gold today. In a hundred more years it will cost 365 bars. I question how this could be possible for houses to appreciate above inflation. Wouldn’t we all be priced out forever eventually if this were true? Isn’t it cheaper to build houses today with modern equipment and mexican labor than it was in 1908?
“Wouldn’t we all be priced out forever eventually if this were true?”
No, because over the past 100 years there has been real increases in wages (albeit not so much in the past 20-30 years). As for the next 100 years, if real wages continue to stagnate, then you would be correct–all other things being equal.
I believe this is correct. If you say inflation is 5% for 100 years the price of housing goes up 6% per year then housing would be at 400x but incomes would only be up 148x.
For more moderate numbers: inflation 1% and housing 2%
Housing increases by 7.4x
Incomes (aka inflation) 2.7x
Numbers are nice after 100 years… e times diference in price.
That is with the old P=Poe^rt simplistic calculation and assuming wage increases are inflation. After 200 years the delta is e^2…. e is the natural base.
I think case shiller just reflects the increase in value long term but things like the mortgage tax break caused a deviation in prices. I think that is why loan manipulation and tax breaks are called price distortion by many here.
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Albert Bartlett
It could be possible that if one were to measure average house price appreciation beginning in 2008 and ending in 2108 the numbers might reveal average depreciation of 1%. This would be the result of falling home prices from the current correction and tighter lender standards in the future. Thus, houses would increase in price over time but slowly lose to inflation.
What I am saying is could the current housing bubble correction throw off the gains of the next century?
To go off on a tangent… you are assuming that over the next 100 years, the dominant monetary phenomenon is inflation. I’m not sure that will be the case. The fallout from the early 21st century financial system meltdown might be a new found appreciation (no pun intended) for a medium of exchange that is fully convertible into gold or another physical commodity. If the fiat currency experiment ends and is instead replaced by a commodity-based currency, then we will almost experience deflation and inflation at irregular intervals.
I’m not necessarily advocating a return to the gold standard, but it seems probable to me that a political consequence of “financial armageddon” will be popular demand for a monetary policy that is not subject to the whims of the PTB.
“…then we will almost experience deflation and inflation at irregular intervals.”
How did the English use to do it? A “Fat” King = 4 feet for a yard
a skinny king = 30″
If deflation becomes the rule, this will imply 100% of all debts public and private will not be repaid, since there will not be sufficient resources to pay these. This therefore implies total economic collapse and renewal, in which case neither inflation or deflation will matter.
In terms of housing, we are not currently seeing deflation, since the prices were artificial anyway, and must be measured long term, rather than looking at a spike in prices causes by EZ credit rather than real market forces. The way I see it, even if prices in bubble areas fall another 25 - 30% prices are still way up over the decade.
What I find interesting is that home prices should have been decreasing over the last 100 years as a percentage of our income. With all the advances in machinery, materials, and import of cheap labor, real estate development should have become far more efficient. With real gains in productivity and incomes over those 100 years, houses, food, and other necessities should have dropped as a percentage of our incomes. We certainly see cheaper food, and can argue that having cheap transportation worked out this way, but what happened to houses?
Is it manipulation of tax codes, increase in loan profiteering, greedy banks? While the actual building of houses should be cheaper, the high prices relative to incomes makes little sense. It seems we have lowered the efficiencies of real estate transactions, and perhaps we have too many hands in the cookie jar (realtors, mortgage brokers, fees, appraisals, inspections, etc.)
GH,
I think the deflation scenario if carried to an extreem does imply that. Of course that imples zero economic activity and no debt whatsoever.
However, if your obligations are lowered in cost and debt serice goes down it might work out good for the government.
The mess that greenspan made pointed out that a lot of unfunded obligations like medicare/ss are helped by deflation. Also the low rates allow the government to finance its debt at spectacularly low rates.
So, expect substantial deflation.
Remember too, that when you are dealing with long periods of time (100 years), the house itself is probably long gone. It’s very difficult to track prices over this much time (which is why Shiller got so much credit for doing it); how many homes today are the same way they were 100 years ago? Unless they are in a museum, the answer is close to 0.
Houses are a depreciating asset. Land is an appreciating asset. Over a long period of time, the only thing that left is the land value, the house will have depreciated to 0 (kind of like time value on an option).
You can keep the house from going to 0, but you need to “roll over” by putting money into the home to keep the expiration rolling into the future. If you don’t do this, the home will drop to 0 eventually.
Land = Potential Appreciation
Home = Depreciating asset
the structure does ? inflation minus 2% minus repairs
the land might go up
“Housing increases by 7.4x
Incomes (aka inflation) 2.7x”
Incomes are not equivalent to inflation. You’re forgetting about productivity gains, which, historically have gone up faster than inflation.
Productivity gains would be deflationary on prices, no?
Would say that housing is going down in price at least on a price per sq/ft basis.
If I remember correctly, Schiller was pointing out that houses should not appreciate faster than inflation for precisely the reasons given above. Even a small percentage rise above inflation means we will reach levels too high to be supported by incomes. He had a graph showing real prices over the last 100 years… and for the most part it would go up and down due to wars and other larger factors, but was relatively steady. However, it wasn’t until about the 80s or so that houses started going up and reached parabolic curve in the recent few years. The 1% included that recent curve, but take out the last 15-20 years and you could argue that house appreciation is roughly 0% in real terms.
Rising home prices relative to income indicates a lower standard of living. True, homes might be bigger today, but then again that 900sq ft. condo for 600k in California isn’t exactly big or affordable either. Like I mentioned above, there are huge inefficiencies in real estate transactions, too many mouths to feed when a home gets sold. We seem to have used car transactions well regulated and working efficiently, like craigslist in peer to peer sales. Why can’t homes be the same way??
You’re preaching to the choir. This is exactly what I was thinking. The one percent is really only there because the recent bubble is averaged into the century.
I’ve always thought this to be further evidence that the infaltion number is under-reported-
Bonjour a tous,
I am going to Paris today to investigate the local market and consider selling my place there. I don’t believe the bubble ever really hit Germany but it has definitely hit Belgium where I am today and some parts of France I believe. I will post my observations here next week, but would love to chat with any regular readers of this blog in Paris. If you are in Paris and have insights please e-mail me at hikerdadlvp at yahoo.
Enjoy your tour! Looking forward to hearing about your observations.
This can’t be. It’s only 1 p.m., pacific NW time here . I was going to catch up on the day’s threads and see what losty was up to, with her rescue dogs and her squatty habits, and see if Ouro has flashed truckers and made them drive off the road, and see if Faster has any new recipes for his rice, jeeze, I haven’t even barfed off the deck yet. iNo one else, has, either far as I know, so it’s too early. Wait…wait…waiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit…..
nope.
Not yet. False alarm.
Although I do have some serious hiccups. They sometimes bust in on me, mostly after I’ve eaten a baked potato. For some reason baked potatoes make my lungs hiccup. Stupid stupid baked potatoes. I should eat a pint of sour cream, that’ll help me out here.
I like em with green chile con puerco, sour cream, and queso over the top… MMMMMmmmm!
LOL!! Good morning, Oly, or afternoon, or evening, whenever you read this, and did you know two of the 40 arrested in the Malicious Mortgage bust were from Utah? They’ve made their state proud…and one had a house in Moab! Probably my neighbor there, I had one who drove a restored Toyota Land Cruiser and was always flashing new North Face jackets and hiking boots and stuff, probably him.
Oly,
I’m just reading this. Hey, those truckers are lucky if I flash them my knees. I drive all covered up ala kate hepburn. An asian lady told me to walk around with a parasol to stay freckle free. But, I will consider wearing summer dresses and try to practice my fake smile while I’m driving around.
Who wants to see photos of san diego north county?
Oh, gee, Oly, I thought you may have taken a severe detour and flew to CNY yesterday when I noticed the woman in a little car passing me on the left was sporting a tiarra along w/her jeans and tee shirt.
Now that I think about it, she probably had a good decade on you but she still looked good in her sparkly day wear ya know!
She had that Oly spunk too–zoomed off before I could give her a thumbs up.
I have been in LA area for the last week. There is alot of comercial real estate for lease and also alot that is under construction, along with quite a bit of under construction residential real estate.
I also see this where in the Las Vegas area, since this is where I live now. Except due to economies of scale, the Vegas area does not seem to be as exstensive with unfinshed construction.
I noticed the same thing in LA. Looks like more available commercial space than I’ve seen in years (ever?).
Thousand Oaks too (Ventura County). Ditto to more space and more building of commercial. Also see a trend in Latino retailers in the older section of Thousand Oaks Blvd. They survive on the illegals (foot traffic from nearby section 8).
It will be interesting to see if The Lakes (Caruso Disneyesque strip mall) upscale retailers, are still in business in a year.
I was in Vegas for a convention three weeks ago. Stayed at the Hilton Grand Vacations on the Strip (Very nice, better than the big casino hotels BTW) This is one building north of Sky Las Vegas. The tower is completed and claims to be 95% sold out.
Well guess what? Sitting in the pool at our hotel we could see the car access to the parking garage at Sky. Between 4PM and 7PM on a weekday we saw only 2 cars entering! Once dusk came around, only 3 units had lights on!
Damn 95% sold out! Better hurry before they’re all gone!
I was in LV a few months ago, staying at the Sahara. From the monorail station, I could see into the parking structures at the nearby condo buildings. They were about 95% empty. From the balcony of my room, I could see several condo buildings in the other direction (westward). The only building with lights on at night was the one that was still under construction - work lights. The other condo buildings were about 95% dark.
I don’t think the reality of the situation has kicked in yet in LV.
Those condos could be prime bordello space for the right entrepreneur.
Top floors in a local bank building were left unfinished. A contractor told my husband that the only reason they’re building so much commercial here is that the projects were approved and financed 3 years ago.
Much like the Titanic, it takes time to turn this ship around into the iceberg.
I am seeing changes in the Syracuse region.
Local RE listing service topped 6000 listings (the most I’d ever seen earlier was 4100)
I went into a part of Syracuse I had never been to before looking for a well known deli. I couldn’t believe the “For Rent” signs on that street. They were everywhere. Maybe that was the norm but I was shocked to see so many. It was a pretty tired looking neighborhood, so perhaps it was a crime spike issue.
I think there is a portion of sellers capitulating on price. All of a sudden, I’m seeing homes over 2000 sq ft in good school districts for under $200k. I saw one smaller yet beautifully updated older home (over)priced last fall at $269k now down to $219900. It’s in a village and has some issues w/lack of parking. We’ll see if that moves it.
I’m seeing more listings go to “For Sale or Rent”
I heard of 2 different 40ish women who took their own lives in the last month. They both had medical problems but I wonder if the economic gloom played a part in the depth of their hopelessness. One had been a doctor.
I’m finding a lot of the SFH rentals in my particular area (not near the universities) have been rented to foreign students who leave as soon as their degree is completed. Sometimes after only a 6 mos. lease. I’m wondering how this slowdown will affect that market.
I heard my first “cut-back” comment. An abandoned gym membership due to commuting costs. (30 mile round trip–the cost of living in farm country)
Wednesday night I was out on the strip which has a lot of chain restaurants: parking lots all full as usual. Even the tattoo shop had a full parking lot. There are still big parties being thrown for friends’ birthdays and family events. Obviously there are a few thousand households w/homes for sale that are probably feeling anxious but I still don’t get a general sense of pain or fear. Most people I’ve been running into seem friendly, open and in a good mood.
“30 mile round trip”
You know what’s amazing? Upstate cities don’t require super-commuting, and yet so many choose it!
I’ll be in upstate for the next few weeks. I’m looking forward to it.
I’ve never thought of my 22 minute (40mile round trip) as a “super commute”. Sure, I sometimes wish I was closer, but it’s certainly manageable.
In my 47mpg diesel, at $4.70/gal, that’s a $4/day, or a $20/wk, fuel expense.
I lived in Syracuse and Fulton for 15 years (1988-2003). I live on the far east edge of the university section (near Genessee/Salt Springs intersection) for 10 years. Maybe I know the “well known deli” and can comment on the neighborhood.
Syarcuse’s economy fell appart in 1991 or so. Companies started shutting doors rather quickly, and there was a net population exodus out of the city/county and most of upstate NY during the decade of the 1990s. Basically, if you kept your job you lived pretty well. If you lost it, you had to sell and leave.
As a result of the economic downturn, nearly all home builders went under or left the area. No one was building. No one was moving in. No one was buying houses - everyone had one, and no new people getting jobs ment no new people buying houses/no one trading up.
I rented for several years during the Grad school days. When I decided to stay in the area for awhile (wife got a job), I bought in 2000. At that moment, the economy turned up and there was a sudden demand for housing. But there were no houses less than 10 years old, and due to the harsh weather and the economic times, the existing housing stock was saturated with fixer-up houses. Only a small percent of homes were in good shape. (Even the realtors comment on this in the paper at the time - good quality houses were suddenly selling like hot-cakes at good prices, the rest of the homes could not attract any interest). Certain parts of the city held up OK during the ’90s (Dewitt shire around the ShoppingTown mall, Manlius of course, even Stratforshire(?) area in the city), but a good deal of the housing stock in the area was built for 1920s-1960s factory workers, so its small, crowded, and not desirable to today’s families. The percentage of housing dating from 1990 forward is very small.
Thanks for commenting Cincy. I know exactly where you were on Gennessee/Salt Springs. But this area is off of Teal Ave. I know those homes date back at least to the Depression as the 80-ish person I was with lived there in several places when she was a little girl. Considering her mother enjoyed changes of scenery often, I doubt those homes were new even then as they were all rentals.
Was that Strathmore you were referring to as one of Syracuse’s nicer locations? I’ve seen many beautiful places that make you wish you could have known them in their heyday. Sedgewick looks pretty dern nice too.
I’m pretty familiar w/Syracuse’s history as my husbands’ family has been here forever and my mother in law has put together several small books w/historic photos and stories. A public likeness of one of my husband’s relatives is on display in the city. The in-laws spent their childhoods in North Syracuse neighborhoods (she went to SU, he went to war) but moved to the suburbs in the 70s after a few years of wedded bliss on their home turf.
Their experience was a little different than the one you describe above. Their custom built place was over 3000 sq ft on 7 acres. I doubt it impressed any of their neighbors who had equally if not more impressive properties. Compared to what’s built up around them today (mostly after 92 when I met hubby) that house looks downright puny. I suppose some of those original neighbors in the 70s were the country club set but not as many as you’d think. Many just wanted some space and privacy.
Speaking of the 90s, I know Baldwinsville and Camillus were humming along in the 90s too. And then there’s Caz. I know homes have been built pretty consistently in the 80s, 90s and especially 00s in Caz. Perhaps people that still had jobs were just heading out to the burbs.
But wait! There’s more! DH just came home. He was building homes in the mid 80s in the Syracuse area. He said his crew was all over the place: the west side, the north side, and Stringer homes on the east side. He said they weren’t just doing Stringer homes. There were affordable ones being built too.
Maybe just nothing new in the city?
RE: I heard of 2 different 40ish women who took their own lives in the last month. They both had medical problems but I wonder if the economic gloom played a part in the depth of their hopelessness. One had been a doctor.
Tip of the iceburg.
Wait until the SHTF in the federal wealth transfer payment systems because of a massive tax revolt and the emergence of a huge underground economy, so “dat der ain’t no ‘mo monies in da till fo’ da po’ foke.”
It’s all over in SW Florida…. the bottom is in… definitely!
————————————————–
As inventory falls, agents’ hopes rise
They say the right location and price may be turning the housing market around
By Tom Bayles
Published Friday, June 20, 2008 at 4:30 a.m.
Last updated Friday, June 20, 2008 at 3:58 a.m.
For real estate agents like Lueanne Wood, the news has been a long time in coming: The backlog of homes for sale in Southwest Florida has dropped steadily since the beginning of the year.
“We’re back in the saddle again,” said Wood, a Venice-area agent for Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate. “The baby boomers are back and they are coming from everywhere and they don’t discuss taxes or insurance — that’s not even in their vocabulary.”
“We are back to ‘05 and ‘06 numbers,” Wood said. “The business has absolutely turned around.”—->
Sarasota Herald Tribune - Link: http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080620/REALESTATE/806200386/1661
Fantastic! I would hardily suggest that everyone from near and far rush down there and get in on the housing boom, before it’s to late!
“We’re back in the saddle again,” said Wood, a Venice-area agent for Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate. “The baby boomers are back and they are coming from everywhere and they don’t discuss taxes or insurance — that’s not even in their vocabulary.”
“…they don’t discuss taxes or insurance — that’s not even in their vocabulary.”
This sounds like a slip. Why mention taxes and insurance at all? Why not just say: “The baby boomers are back.” The agents know taxes and insurance are indeed becoming huge issues and gumming up the rent v. own equation.
Besides, anyone who buys without consideration to the carrying costs is gunning to become just another sob story: “Sally Doe, a retiree living on a fixed income, can barely afford to feed her six cats after county X raised taxes to help cover its pension obligations”.
“The baby boomers are back and they are coming from everywhere and they don’t discuss taxes or insurance — that’s not even in their vocabulary.”
Apparently this guy has a line on “dumb money baby-boomers”.
Who on earth from this country doesn’t now know about the FL tax system? You would have to be seriously impaired to buy a home in FL that’s not your primary residence; you’re just making yourself a target for incredible tax raises. If you’re going to live here full time, the tax environment is still awful, but at least you get the same protection everyone else does.
But looking to buy a 2nd home in FL? You might as well just pile the money up and light it on fire. It will give you more entertainment, and cost you much less in the long run.
FL has declared war on the boomers and all 2nd home owners. Proceed accordingly.
Mike, people do not know about the FL tax system. It amazes me that people spend more time investigating the pros and cons of plasma vs. whatever TV’s then they spend on real estate investments. I’m from NY and see it all the time. A co-worker will say FL condos are way down, I’m going down next month to look around. I’ll ask “What are you looking to spend?” they’ll say “$500,000 condos in Tampa are going for $200,000″ then when I inform them the monthy costs of a condo W/O mortgage could be $800-1,000/mo and thats all they could rent it for, I get the deer in headlights look.
And thank God for said war! The fewer nut jobs tearing down virgin forest to put up cr@pshacks for 2nd “homes” and “investment properties” the better.
RE: all 2nd home owners
THESE WILL BE HUGE TARGETS FOR THE TAXMAN.
Nobody easier to politically shake down than all those rich, snooty, out of state owners.
Kathy Roberts, chief executive of the Sarasota Association of Realtors, credits the decreasing inventory to three factors: more houses are being sold at lower prices, fewer are being listed and some sellers have taken their homes off the market, thinking the offers they have received are too low.
According to the article, the conclusion is based only on estimated months of listed inventory.
Inventory is overflowing. New sellers do not want to jump in right now. Current sellers are taking a break. NAR would like us to pretend this inventory doesn’t exists.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080620/REALESTATE/806200386/1661
“We are back to ‘05 and ‘06 numbers,” Wood said. “The business has absolutely turned around”
Damn I missed it! Now I’ll remain a bitter renter and be priced out forever. Yesterday when I last checked the market was in free fall and this morning we’re back to ‘05 and ‘06 numbers. Talking about a quick turn around.
Hey, they don’t ring a bell at the bottom, buddy.
Sure they do. Every single bottom. All 365 of them over the last year.
A Brave New World For Financial Regulation…
Nothing “Brave” about it, the FED opening the door to investment banks was/is a very bad move. Time will prove this to be the case, but we live in a society that prefers not to let nature take it’s course. We can’t ‘allow’ failure… Some many leaking dikes and only so many fingers.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121383415928286831.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
FED Ache…
But Bernie did know.
The euro’s function as reserve-currency spoiler was fully known to him when he assumed office. He also knew that the ECB wasn’t about to follow him into the interest rate ditch when push came to shove – but there’s always hope, I guess.
The really stressful part in all of this is that there really isn’t anything he can do in his position, given the tools at his disposal. All he can do is use traditional ways of messing around with the US money supply, or try to find more novel ways to affect US interest rates – but therein lies the problem.
He has no power to affect the interest rate targeted by the Fed’s sister institution in Europe.
http://www.small-business-goldmine.com/fed-ache.html
IMHO it is not that Mr. Bernanke has done a “bad job”, it is that the federal reserve and the ECB are not working together. Often appearing at odds, the entire financial structure is coming apart. I am betting on France, but it could just as easily be Italy or Spain that throws in the towel first.
Wells Fargo is screwed.
That’s the only conclusion I can come up with after what was reported in yesterday’s WSJ about how Wells accounts for troubled loans.
As of April Fool’s Day, Wells Fargo decided to wait for 180 days of non-payment on a loan before declaring it as deliquent. Before April Fool’s Day Wells only waited 120 days.
So, are we to believe, in this economic climate, that a loan that hasn’t had any payments made on it in four months will have payments made on it after six months? Not likely.
What’s really going on, IMO, is Wells Fargo is cooking its books. As of April Fool’s Day Wells Fargo gets to prevent an extra two months of bad loans from being dinged against it’s balance sheet. An extra two months of bad loans will be deemed as not bad at all and thus will not be counted against its earnings. Wells is ten days away from the end of the quarter when these earning will be reported.
Wells Fargo is just buying time, IMO, time to juice up earnings so it can puff up its stock price to be unloaded into a gullible stock market.
Again, Wells Fargo is screwed. And Wells Fargo is supposed to be run better than most banks. If so, then that means most banks are screwed; That means we are all screwed.
(I need coffee.)
What makes you think they will not be able to cook their books indefinitely until they have the opportunity to somehow unload their toxic crap on the taxpayer?
Yep, that is what will happen!
WSJ had an article on this yesterday. Banks are cooking their books in every legal way possible.
Why would you think that Wells Fargo “is supposed to be run better than most”? Some analyst with Merril or Citigroup or ? - Wells was liked by Mr. Warren Buffett - whoppdee doo, and probably talked up on Bloomberg or CNBC Financial News. Analysts then revised their opinions of the bank based on who was buying. It did not change the banks operating positions.
Wells is better run than Citigroup, not as well run as Northern Trust. It is just a mediocre bank that over leveraged housing.
The problems with the banks are readily discernible from their SEC filings. It is not prudent to be invested in any US bank at this time.
I’ve told the story here before about how Wells put an extra $5000 in my account and when I told them it was a mistake they said it couldn’t possibly be, so after trying to convince them I gave up. This was a few years ago, but it that’s par for the course, then, yes, they’re screwed.
Note to self: Move monies from WF account to credit union soon.
Thanks for the tidbit, combo.
6 Real Estate Bargains
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/105279/6-Real-Estate-Bargains?mod=retirement-lifestyle
As soon as I saw Yun quoted, I knew this was good for a morning laugh.
Deals abound on the California coast, but prices are picking up again.
Does Lawrence Yun have NO shame? How can this guy sleep at night?
Yun sleeps very well upon big bags of money.
“Deals abound on the California coast, but prices are picking up again.”
I read some fluff piece in Yahoo “best places to retire” saying in San Diego bidding wars are common on homes for sale.
yea right
Yes, there are bidding wars, on the foreclosures. The banks price them super low and watch the fools bid them up. There are 2 in my neighborhood (92123) priced at under $300,000.
I’ll only take these rumors of bidding wars seriously when they involve pistols and rifles… with Realtwhores as hostages… and when the bidding process is over; I want to see bullet holes in plaster and pantsuits…
…then later on these future FB’s can really say ’someone held a gun to my head’, while crying for another bailout…
Yes, but as a woman in my office said to me today, there are multiple bids on some properties, but all the bids are below the ask.
Be careful. When someone tells you there are multiple bids, they may not be lying, but it doesn’t mean you need to bid above the ask if you want to buy the place.
Market futures are dropping, below 12000 today?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahSfX20VUax0&refer=home
Just a prelude to the coming bloodbath next week IMO.
Shorted ES. Still looking more for a long trade than a short one though. Not today, maybe Monday afternoon or Tuesday a.m.
There might be some real bargains by then. What’s ES, btw? Out late last night entertaining summer associates, and the coffee is barely fighting through the haze this morning.
S&P 500 futures.
e-mini (S&P)
Ah yes, the summer associates. Bet they’re just endless fun . . . coddled overprivileged brats (I assume since you have them you’re at a big firm) Are they still getting 1K a week and more to go to beer bashes every night?
I may be really aging myself with this comment.
Ours aren’t that annoying. (we only have two here in SD). Big firm, but local office is only 30 attorneys, and we pride ourselves on not wanting to work with complete a-holes. So far, it’s worked out reasonably well.
That said, since they get paid a substantial fraction of a 1st year salary on a pro-rata basis, I’m guessing they make a hell of a lot more than $1k/week.
You have to coddle and overpay the summer associates, and take them out drinking, or else how could you possibly get them them to later accept an associate position and work long long hours off which the partners make big profits? Its a necessary part of the game and the partners know it or they wouldn’t invest their valuable time doing it.
1K? Ha. Try $3K.
160K a year for a first year associate who is generally as useless as tits on a boar and whose time you usually have to write off >50% . . . . right
That’s the current calculus. I certainly wouldn’t want to be one of those overpaid loss leaders doing corporate work right now.
The last number I heard was $150k, but that was a couple of years ago before my wife escaped the clutches of the firm and moved in-house.
Definitely a move-up in life, a move-down in salary.
As I told her, she’s now getting paid far more per hour than before…AND she has her weekends back.
And Txchick, remember, rates are up too. A 3rd or 4th year associate bills 2k hours at $300 per, I recall the rule of thumb being a third/third/third to cover overhead/salary of associate/profit to partner.
So that person gets $200k base/bonus, partners split $200k profit.
Now, do the same math with that same 3rd or 4th year who is a workhorse and bills 2,500 hours.
Now make the billing rate $375 per hour because that 3rd or 4th year has worked enough to justify the amount.
They still get paid $200k, overhead is still $200k, but now that associate is worth $500k+ to the firm annually.
And partner track is now close to a decade in many firms (from what I hear). So, you make a little on the average attorney, but you make $500k+ per year on the workhorses/future partners for a decade before you need to cut them in on the action. If of course they don’t die from utter exhaustion.
Or, like my wife, you get the $ from them for a while, then they leave because they realize that being paid only based on the time you put in (and not the quality of the work) sucks.
AMAT is a name I’d like to get into when things blow though. Peripheral solar play.
Please, for the good of the stock market, stop taking those morning walks!
Here’s something for taxmeupthebooty:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/19/AR2008061903219.html?hpid=topnews
Well, I just gotta say that watching replays of the Tannin-Cioffi perp walk on the news last night just warmed the cockles of my heart. Yeah, maybe it’s just window dressing and a bit of a show to make it look like something is being done, but those guys didn’t look too happy. I hope they spend every dime of their ill-gotten gains in legal fees.
Whoops! There goes the house in Greenwich!
And hopefully the one in Aspen…
I’m expecting a big run on new computers as every hedgie and banker spent the past weekend smashing their hard drives and those of their confidant’s.
The Chinese raise fuel prices by 17%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=adguK03HmfII&refer=home
Energy analyst Jeff Vail (jeffvail.net) recently posted a piece that said removing subsidies could actually INCREASE the use of oil and gasoline. Why? Because subsidies are an inefficient allocation of resources. The theory is that the market will allocate the resources more efficiently, thereby resulting in higher GDP growth and thereby resulting in increased energy use (GDP growth and energy use are joined at the hip)
Just a theory. Personally, I prefer to look at the example of Japan and Korea as they industrialized and went from using one barrel per person per year to about 17 today. China is currently at the about 1-2 barrels per person per year stage, on their way to 17. Do the math.
I think you are forgetting they are building 50+ nuclear plants today, so they wont need as much oil as we do.
Plus i seriously doubt they will allow so many 12mpg SUVs to roam the streets of bejing. So if they ever get to even 8-10 barrels per person i would be very surprised.
“I think you are forgetting they are building 50+ nuclear plants today, so they wont need as much oil as we do.”
“Plus i seriously doubt they will allow so many 12mpg SUVs to roam the streets of bejing. So if they ever get to even 8-10 barrels per person i would be very surprised.”
Nuclear power is not used for transportation; it’s used for electricity generation. China does not use much oil for electricity; they use coal.
Regarding 12mpg SUVs, you see very few of these on the streets of Seoul or Tokyo or Osaka either; either mini-cars or no cars, yet the average Japanese and average Korean still uses 17 barrels per person per year. Oil is in every single item we buy, from packaging, to transport, you name it.
It’s not an energy crisis; it’s a liquid fuels crisis.
But in case we ever do start using nuclear for personal transportation, I’ll call you to do the crash tests.
Should China successfully develop the pebble bed nuclear reactor, there is in theory no small size limitations. The technology was developed in the 1940s at U Wisconsin, never used in the US because it does not make fissionable material - no bomb materials. Possibly the safest nuclear reactors possible.
If the US were to try to make nuclear reactors, the current waiting list from Mitsubishi is 12 years for a containment vessel. Mitsubishi is the only manufacturer of containment vessels. oops
If the US were to try to make nuclear reactors, the current waiting list from Mitsubishi is 12 years for a containment vessel. But, we need more nuclear reactors TODAY, not 12+ years from now!
But in case we ever do start using nuclear for personal transportation, I’ll call you to do the crash tests. You are ignoring the role of cheaper energy in liquid fuel production & conservation. If you have enough energy, you can make just about anything from it, including converting coal to liquid motor fuel & boiling liquids out of oil shale. Nuke power can also be used on railroads, which would free up diesel for trucks. If nuke power were used to heat homes in the Northeast, they could dispense with using #2 fuel oil, etc., etc.
So much could have been done with the $ wasted on the housing bubble.
Or plug-in hybrids, or just plain electric cars…
Hoz,
“…never used in the US because it does not make fissionable material - no bomb materials.”
Pu for weapons came from reactors at Hanford in WA. HEU was generated at Oak Ridge, TN. Tritium used to come from reactors the Savannah River Site in SC; it is now produced in rods at a TVA reactor and extracted at Savannah River. US has kept defense and commericial nuclear programs separate.
Decent site to find items of interest.
http://nnsa.energy.gov/index.htm
More specifically, see pg 16 - HEU production stopped quite some time ago, along with Pu production.
http://nnsa.energy.gov/news/documents/NPT_Briefing.pdf
and
http://nnsa.energy.gov/news/1171.htm
here comes inflation on chinese goods.
right on cue.
Buy that toaster now or be priced out forever.
I have a toaster and a toaster oven. Toasting dem crumpets.
“Buy that toaster now or be priced out forever.”
Oh, that’s what the stimulus checks were for!
Can the MSM possibly milk the Saudi Oil Summit anymore? Seriously, what do they expect to happen to oil prices as a result? Always looking for miracles they are - desperation seeps through these thin headlines.
After all, the princes are probably just holding this summit to scope out some new Western hotties for their harems.
It’s like the Fed and interest rates. They are jawboning in a vain attempt to get prices significantly lower. A combination of these factors, such as China’s price increase announced yesterday, Saudi summit, limits on “speculators” could drive the price down, short-term. Long term, I don’t see any way out, primarily because of the way our brains are wired. We literally do have cave man brains that have an unconscious desire to consume energy. That is what makes us attractive to the opposite sex. More money, more power, more luxurious goods. As long as that is the “ideal” for our society, then we are screwed. If we suddenly start worshipping bike riding, patchy clothes wearing, garden-growing, community-currency using types as our ideal, we might have a chance, but Madison Ave. isn’t likely to embrace that concept anytime soon.
That’s the problem with Peak Oil and why it is likely to continue being poo-pooed. There’s no sponsorship. Ultimately, nobody really “profits” from it.
Hey…it worked in the 60’s …for a short time anyway…ops, sorry…those same person’s are the ones running(or should I say are ruining today’s economy)…
lol
I say, we should all return to the lifestyle of the 60’s. Everyone wore jeans(patched), drove VWs ($1,300 new), gas at 23 cents a gal., good wages at $6,000/yr.
Now if we could only get rid of Ipods, Blackberries and computers…
lol
I sure do miss the cold war sans Vietnam…
It looks like we went from a cold war to a hot peace…and globalization…
Question are we better off today than we were 38 years ago?
Where’s that bucket of water that I can stick my head in?
lol
“…drove VWs ($1,300 new)…”
Working on old VWs is quite fun, just like tinkering with a bicycle - much more so than finger humping a Blackberry. The aftermarket parts available for them nowadays really adds possibilities.
Edge, VWs could be repaired by the owner. Heck, with a tree, or a couple of wood blocks, you could pull the engine and transmission. That dam clutch plate seemed to alway need replacing. You had to buy a special wood tool to align the clutch plate with the engine.
Hey, no electronics here. The people’s car…
A lot of what this society is searching for was lost when it gave up the freedom and ability to repair and mend its possessions.
Granted, there are limits, and most certainly technology is not all bad. Still, just because some goatee guy puts an eagle decal on the rear window of his plastic pickup it does not mean he’s his own man.
How True
I high school we build our own Am radio and walkie talkie, learned to use a soldering gun…..my father was a bricklayer p/t carpenter so we had the big DeWalt circular saw in the basement. we fixed our our bikes, tires…..and when we couldn’t then we took it to a pro and paid them…..
I am astonished at how many people on Craigslist and Ebay, announce to the world ….. i dunno much about this stereo/ item but it lights up and i have no wires to test it…or it did work last time i threw it in my closet, and still want a high price.
——————————————————–
A lot of what this society is searching for was lost when it gave up the freedom and ability to repair and mend its possessions.
There is nothing worst than being controlled by your possessions.
..not a real ego booster to be totally helpless at doing anything other than taking out the trash and going to work in which you could be replaced/outsourced…
What in the h*ll is the world coming to? Heck, if I was a female looking for a mate, what would my criteria be? …good looking, responsible for taking out the trash and showing up on time for work?
Thats all they wrote, folks!
aNYCdj
Craigslist is full of idiots. I see items that have been listed and relisted for over a year. A few thousand people have seen their crap, you think they’d get a clue nobody wants it but no. They list the widget in every catagory. Some relist their item everyday. The real crazy ones list their item several times a day.
Real f-tards. I love it when they say this or that is broken but it should be an “easy fix” or it’s dirty but “should clean up easily”. What are they trying to say, that they are just hella lazy? Frequently the item is so nestled in squalor you can’t even see it. You’d think if you wish to sell an item you could take 5 minutes clean it or clear your junk from it.
“What in the h*ll is the world coming to? Heck, if I was a female looking for a mate, what would my criteria be? …good looking, responsible for taking out the trash and showing up on time for work?”
If responsibility and gainful employment were key choices for mate selection, our species would not be in the mess it is in.
Meanwhile, in Baltimorgue, you can RENT spinners for your g-ride to attract the ladies. Because nothings says “mating potential” like poor taste AND lousy financial sense. I weep for our future!
“I am astonished at how many people on Craigslist and Ebay, announce to the world ….. i dunno much about this stereo/ item but it lights up and i have no wires to test it…or it did work last time i threw it in my closet, and still want a high price.”
Check out the ipod selection on ebay sometime. A couple of months ago I was looking for a used one to leave hooked to the adapter in my car. Reserve prices of like $50 and up for dozens upon dozens of nanos and 3rd generation (i.e. 2-3 years old) units described as “sad Mac face, not sure what’s wrong” or dead battery or cracked screen, etc. I finally found a guy on craigslist who had one of relatively recent vintage with a cracked screen that he sold me for $35. Perfect since it plays through (and it controlled by) the head unit and I never look at the screen anyway.
Here’s a really good explanation of the summit from one of the moderators at the lifeaftertheoilcrash forum.
“Once upon a time OPEC could easily manipulate oil prices thru raising or lowering production. Oil prices were a compromise between the desires of the oil companies and the desires of the economists. It was a good solution for everyone involved, a win for the Saudis, a win for the oil companies..
“Enter today. There is no excess production left. Maybe .5 million barrels a day, but we will see… The economists have been screaming to get prices up, needing the rally in all commodities to offset their losses in the lending debacle, needing the rises to speculate the profits to stay solvent.
“But the economy is milked out. Its time to open the spigots, increase production, drop the price of oil, and profit from the drop. Its how its always been done…
“Except now it isnt gonna happen. Now the commodity is scarce enough to engender bidding, and this, coupled with no spare capacity disallows a good price drop…
“Our controllers are pissed. The Saudis wont play ball. The Saudis cant…
“So we are stuck in a situation where they are making the lions share of the money, profiting the most, profiting in a way that will continue to drain the importers and enrich themselves. Eventually they will end up with all the cookies…
“But this will never happen. The Saudis are realists. They know damned well what oil takes to extract, and who is getting what margin. They also know that if the present margin continues it makes an excellent investment for America to pay for the war to take their oil. It pencils out, its just business…
“There are elements that would love to do this, have planned and schemed for years…
“The Saudis know that a fair slice is better than nothing, and are prepared to play ball, play fair. The problem is a new game must be made, new rules. The old game is dead. A new game must be defined or their Kingdom is lost. Its in everyones best interests to get a new game, a new understanding, and new rules. It will be painful for everyone, and no one trusts anyone, yet it must be done if Saudi is going to remain an entity…
“The question is how to effect this. Will it be a quota system?? Its hard to picture how this will play, but its certain that the current market mechanics must be overcome to put oil in a extraction cost plus reasonable profit position. Our economy depends on it, as does the very entity of the Saudi royal family.”
Or does the game change? The Saudis used to deal with their excess profits by “loaning” the money they receive for oil back to us. Do we now dispense with that pretense and just have them hand it over as “tribute” to the empire.
Why not? We defend them and their product.
I know this isn’t the most politically correct statement but let’s face it, these are the facts. We defended them from Saddam, now that Saddam is gone we need to defend them from the Shiites. Otherwise, the whole dynamic changes and we are forced to deal directly with the Shiites on oil which will not be favorable.
You do not understand.
The US military serves as enforcer and protection for the Saudi Royals. They pay us in cheap oil.
After all, the princes are probably just holding this summit to scope out some new Western hotties for their harems.
This might not be far from the truth. A former coworkers Dad was a diplomat (non US) who served in the middle east. She told me that it was quite common for the princes to marry western hotties for the sole purpose of sireing children. The women were given a great deal of leeway and were allowed to live part time in Europe. The deal was to have a baby, upon which they would be cut loose with a generous annuity.
From what she said there were plenty of takers.
Death of the suburbs over exagerated?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aTQcSv2fztVw&refer=home
“Do you really think the cost of a gallon of gasoline is going to doom suburbia?”
How about the houses reaching 50 years old and being passed down to poorer people who can’t pay as much in taxes, at the same time as the waves of workers hired as suburban communities expanded reaching retirement age with a guaranteed pension that isn’t adequately pre-funded? Older suburbs were facing problems without the gasoline, which hurts newer suburbs. In the city, we are already used to high taxes, poor services, and mixed populations.
You’re right to point out the quality of older suburban housing stock. In my area for every Evanston, Riverside, and Oak Park there are many Schiller Parks, Bensenvilles, Worths, and Maywoods.
These latter examples are stocked with smaller postwar houses that do not lend themselves to rennovation like the turn-of-the-century houses found in the former group. A lot of that housing is very small, frame and not brick, and on slabs. Those with the money to rennovate would not waste their efforts on them. Instead those areas will decline until they can be raised en masse and provide a “clean slate” for some future round of investment.
Off-shoring only works because people can work remotely.
I suspect we’re going to see more people working from home, or working sometimes from small satellite offices, or the use of the internet to help arrange carpools, etc. as a way to offset expensive commutes.
Having your own little lawn, no matter how far away from work is a tough one to try to keep from people–and I think we’ll find people will go to extraordinary lengths to keep a suburban home lifestyle.
Just switching from gas guzzlers may save the most fuel? Do they stay awake at nights coming up with the obvious???
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=aSXmK4EjAAUg&refer=home
Switching from gas guzzlers is NOT the answer.
The construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 20 barrels (840 gallons) of oil. Ultimately, the construction of a car will consume an amount of fossil fuels equivalent to twice the car’s final weight.
It says a lot that all we can focus on is how to keep the cars running.
Right-O! Madison Ave. can sell anything.
1990s - ditch the wagon to get an SUV that will keep the wifey and kiddies physically safe.
2000s - ditch the SUV to get a wagon to keep the wifey and kiddies fiscally safe.
Any line of reasoning that creates demand for another automobile, that otherwise would not have existed, is NOT conservation!
In a word “YES”
But of course our gov’t has been heavily lobbied for the last 20 years to prevent implementing the most obvious, namely increasing the C.A.F.E. standards to make care more fuel efficient and going away from SUV/gas guzzlers. If we’d have all gone to fuel sippers in the 90’s instead of SUVs this would all be a none issue. But the Detroit would not of had an easy profit center to compete against the imports and big oil would not have us all by the balls right now. Glad I can bike to work!!
Glad I can bike to work!! Does your food get from the producer to your table the same way?
For confirmation that the credit crunch is affecting all sectors of the economy, read how clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch had to borrow $100 million because they couldn’t access $300 million invested in the auction rate bond market.
“Abercrombie, which recorded an unrealized loss of $18.8 million on the securities last quarter, plans to hold them until an auction succeeds, the issuer calls the bonds or they mature, according to the quarterly filing. Most of Abercrombie’s auction- rate security holdings are backed by student loans, and 85 percent of them carry top AAA ratings, according to the filing.”
Link
i went into a Abercrombie & Fitch for a gift for my nephew and it was a horrible experience. loud obnoxious music and clothes that are for kids and anorexics
it is very popular among the tween set though
when do the pre x-mas sales start?
I am no geezer but also, the version in my mall oozes cheap cologne. You walk past it and your eyes water. My daughter calls it “That Stinky Store”.
Messrs. Abercrombie and Fitch would stick forks in their ears. Complete 180 from the outfitter establishment they founded.
Futures down 83, wow, could be a buying opportunity.
Yesterday I made a big bet (for me) on SDS, the Ultrashort S&P500 ETF. I’m hoping to see a 30-50% crash starting sometime between now and the end of the year.
That’s what RBS is predicting, who knows? Could be a good time to do some bargain shopping. I’d get back in at that level.
S&P 100 a gimme putt from their 52-week, Bear Stearns low. Decision time.
Txchick - what’s your call? Rally from here or capitulation?
I’ll buy index calls at the 1300 mark or thereabouts and keep the ES short on a leash
covered ES. That will make the calls free if I get them.
Nyc unemployment rate rising -glad i have 2 jobs
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/FREE/29247043/1120/newsletter11
My brother-in-law was just laid off by S&P. He said his entire class (2007) has been pink-slipped, or will be.
Good for you for grabbing that brass ring before the competition started heating up, mgnyc99!
Where did the FBI learn to fish? They wait till they have 400 brokers on the hook before they reel them in.
I bet a whole lot of others got zero sleep last night.. tossing.. turning.. thinkin about picking up a couple new shredders ASAP… a new HDrive. Go long on Office Depot?
400 is chump change.
It is a number thrown out to make it appear that they are doing something. There are 50,000 licensed Mortgage Brokers in California - 400 = less than 1% are crooked?
The acronym for a Cali MB license is CRML.
From what i’ve heard this first sweep was limited to cases of what was essentially bank robbery.. cash-out collusion between broker-flippers, plus tax evasion, money laundering, etc… the worst of the worst they’ve discovered so far.
A local TV news blurb claimed the FBI has a list of thousands of brokers yet to be arrested, but i haven’t found confirmation on the net.
My only problem is that this is too little too late. Where are we going to put thousands of brokers if they carry a jail sentence? We spend far too much on prisons as it is. Maybe stripping them of their license and a huge fine might help, but if these guys are unemployed now, collecting will be a problem.
Go long on ankle bracelets
Those pesky oil futures just keep coming back…
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-futures-gather-steam-after/story.aspx?guid=%7B249AE972%2DEC73%2D41CF%2DB4A0%2DFD30C69B596D%7D&dist=hplatest
Bond insurer ratings cut again. It’s a tiny blurb with some possibly big repercussions…
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/moodys-downgrades-aaa-rating-ambac/story.aspx?guid=%7BDB5108E9%2D0B27%2D46C8%2D9BA6%2DBCD2DD48AC63%7D
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/moodys-downgrades-force-shares-ambac/story.aspx?guid=%7B79127764%2D738A%2D4D29%2DB35F%2DCDBA2EA919CE%7D&dist=msr_9
That was mentioned last night on this Blog. Not good.
Has anyone heard anything on the financials this morning about this. CNBC hasn’t mentioned it (that I’ve heard) and this is big stuff…
a tiny blurb with some possibly big repercussions… I hate to belabor the obvious, but what are the possible big repercussions?
This is a re-post from yesterday’s Florida thread:
Palmetto, you still out there? I had a meeting in Bradenton and lunch in Palmetto today (now yesterday). It’s a lot more laid back than Pinellas. Are you retired, or do you work? I’m just curious as to what attracts you or keeps you in that area. My job is firmly mid-Pinellas, I just wonder if I’d like a less hectic place.
Prices in South Florida right now are at and lower (in places) to prices we saw for similar properties back when we went house-hunting in late 2003 to Jan 2004 . (We gave up, disgusted by prices)
I figure that if it keeps going down. they’ll be back down to 2000 prices (mebbe) in a year to two and we can, if we wish, start looking again.
But, honestly, if we find someone who wants to rent to us for a two-year lease (house, not condo/apt) near hubby’s job–and they aren’t underwater or in danger of foreclosure–I think I might prefer renting, and just keep looking to see how low they’ll get while becoming familiar with the coveted neighborhood (ie, one that saves gas/commute time). And the neighborhood in question is a good one (low crime, high median wage, decent houses).
M.
The renting option is smart and it would be great to get one in the neighborhood you think you might want to eventually buy in. It may be hard to get a 2 year lease on a single family home in a desirable area though because such homes are usually not purchased as rental properties but have become rentals properties by sellers that cant get the price they want or need and are trying to ride it with hopes the market will rebound any time. Also, regardless if they are underwater or facing foreclosure now, prices should be another 25% or more lower in two years, thus, they may very well enter that situation during your rental period. I would rent even if you can just get a one year lease, but if you can get two that would be great. I wish you the best of luck and think you are making a smart decision.
“It may be hard to get a 2 year lease on a single family home in a desirable area”
I’ve done just that. It takes time, but I’ve got a great place, a great landlord and a fantastic location. I say go for very affluent areas, chances are you’ll find a professional who understands the situation and can afford the carrying costs.
I should add, as my offering in the deal, I handed over 24 post-dated checks with the signed lease. Do it, this will give the landlord a lot of relief as they can deposit the checks at their leisure and not worry about when they’ll see you or if its lost in the mail. I even gave them 5 days advance on the date so the checks clear by the 1st of each month. If you want an awesome LL, be an awesome renter.
I used to send my nice Landlady six months rent in advance. That was I place I stayed at twelve years.
I got a 5 year lease in the area I wanted in ‘03
but the guy practically owns the place free and clear and fancies himself to be an “investor”
Thanks, all.
I’d certainly want to be a GREAT renter, and ideally, would find one of those terrific landlords who has an older house they’ve pretty much paid for so that they are still making money off a reasonable rent.
As far as paying on time, shoot, I’m in the habit of paying AHEAD. I hate late fees on anything and I never carryover a credit card balance. I hate paying interest, too. And my credit rocks!
Rising corn prices threaten U.S. ethanol output
page 2
Corn futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade indicate ethanol producers are facing much higher costs than they can reap by selling their product.
Ethanol production hurts ethanol producers.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/rising-corn-prices-threaten-shutter/story.aspx?guid=%7BCF70923E%2DA811%2D4525%2D966F%2D3B83AA29FF21%7D
bush bad, bush bad
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080620/ap_on_go_co/congress_housing
Your Government at Work [John J. Miller]
There are about as many farmers in the District of Columbia as there are fingers on my foot. In the new farm bill, however, the University of the District of Columbia will receive $10 million for agricultural research
There are lots of agricultural economists situated in DC.
Probably setting up courses for indoor hydroponic marijuana culture.
Hoz, remember we shorted this almost simultaneously last year? Hahahah
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab1Xeq8UM0PA&refer=home
On the IPO, not often I do that. Made some gas moneys. As I recall you did very very well.
you’d be shocked at what I had to pay to borrow it
I knew those employees of the govt. were on something (house, senate, administration, fed and the supremes)…Nothing in this country shocks me anymore, and I remember a lot of things in the past would make me blush…even for an xmarine.
lol.
I heard pete my old neighbor was growing pot and the landlady threatened to call the sherriff. I also heard the walls were all moldy and the floors were bare cement. Pete used to play DJ music that drove Ouro to distraction. But, the smokers downstairs messed me up more.
I think one of the more silly parts of the housing bill is the clause about should the value of the property go up ,the bailed out homeowner would have to share part of the proceeds with the government . Oh sure ,the borrowers that bought property for appreciation are going to give up any appreciation to pay back the government .Joey brought up the fact that the problem would be changing non-recourse loans to full-recourse loans also . That would not be legally smart of the part of a homeowner actually . I mean what is Senator Dodds trying to pull here . Did the government take any polls on what % of homeowners would be even interested in this program ?
Since real estate is not likely to see appreciation for years ,how likely will any bail-out be paid back,and why would a borrower want to do that ?
The other part of the bail-out package that allows for the government to buy up foreclosures that are already vacant and in need of re-hab is so clearly a lender bail-out . Why can’t the damn lender take care of its own trashed foreclosure ? This part of the bill isn’t helping any homeowners.
When the lawmakers attempt to proceed with a bill that has no basis in reality to achieve the goal that they say that bill was meant for …being saving the poor homeowners …than there must be a hidden agenda for the purpose of that bill. It’s so insulting .
In the end, even if the housing package is passed, I can guarantee you recipients are not going to have to share any home price appreciation with the Government. That was simply put into the bill to win over votes needed to pass. It will be just like the conforming loan limits, initially they said that raising them were temporary, but there are already calls to make them permanent. In a few years (or less), they’ll rewrite the housing bill to ensure that deadbeats get to keep “their” appreciation [of course, they'll have to stay in the house for a decade or more to actually realize any gains].
I agree with what you say . My problem is I dislike bogus bills that are passed for the purpose of changing them down the road,especially when the true intent of the bill is to bail out lenders . Also the bill just isn’t fair because it makes responsible homeowners and renters pay for other peoples sins .
People don’t feel the pain of bogus bills until the day the cost of them come back to haunt them ,which is usually delayed . Also, the low Fed discount rates have not benefited the people in terms of lower money costs and it’s just served to create inflation and low rewards to savers .
I agree completely. As I see it, the prudent have already directly bailed out the foolish, vis a vis low interest rates on savings and the rampant escalation in food costs being borne by all of us. And, the loser deadbeat homemoaners already have been rewarded since they can stay in the homes without paying the mortgage for a year or more without getting evicted. Sounds pretty sweet!
“Six people from a downtown San Diego real estate firm are among more than 400 real estate insiders who have been swept up in a massive, nationwide crackdown on mortgage fraud.”
http://tinyurl.com/45ajcq
It appears those targeted in the San Diego area might typically have been running other types of fraud rings, but had migrated into real estate because of the fast, easy, and big money to be made at the time. Their methods seem a little more sophisticated and the amounts extracted a little greater than some of the other types of real estate fraud at the time, but not by much.
However, I suspect there were many, many more less sophisticated individuals extracting far more collectively in fraud in the same area at the same time. These have yet to be prosecuted.
I wonder if they got Casey Serin?
look for iamfacingjailtime.com
I heard the russian mob nailed his @ss.He is now in siberia swinging a pick.
cash back at close…..
I lied to the banks…..
It’s not a murse…
casey has gone into oil trading business, since oil prices never go down and they are not making any more oil
Were any of them lawyers, per chance?
Some of the loan criminals got so bold that early defaults are a clear pathway to the worst offenders .A lot of those seminars groups were a haven for the criminals setting up their deals . Heck,for a while there ,the criminals were advertising themselves on every telephone
pole with the advertising of “Make 20k a month assisting a real estate investor.” Heck ,the goof-ball criminals are advertising on the
internet ,still to this very day .
Freddie and Fannie still sinking.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aLrjvgP1ysR8&refer=home
bargains- caution heavy pimping
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/105279/6-Real-Estate-Bargains?mod=retirement-lifestyle
10 trillion dollar shadow world?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/big-brokers-threatened-crackdown-shadow/story.aspx?guid=%7BFA23DF5A%2D918F%2D41DA%2DB794%2D7E553ADAFAA7%7D
Shorting the financials? Tx is that you???
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/big-brokers-threatened-crackdown-shadow/story.aspx?guid=%7BFA23DF5A%2D918F%2D41DA%2DB794%2D7E553ADAFAA7%7D
Winnebago getting annihilated.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20080620&id=8806888
Ah, I was looking forward to auger-inn piping in on this one. Are you having outdoor fun in Conway, Auger, instead of joining us on the blog?
With some gas stations asking cash only what is this going to tdo to the credit card market? Will this spread to other retail businesses?
Looks like the credit card company’s are FUBAR, and the middle class do to the fact they live on credit. I dont think this country is going to survive the depression that is coming.
Great point. I have a story of a friend who played the CC companies.
He wracked up about 40k in CC debt and never paid a dime back. The CC companies hounded him relentlessly for two years. Finally they went to court. The final outcome was this, friend agreed to pay 5k back in return for the CC companies wiping off his poor credit habits from the credit scoring bureaus.
Now if you’re a loan officer and this guy shows up with a decent credit score and a good income, you are about to be taken to the cleaners courtesy of the CC companies.
Last I heard, this guy is now realtor in California.
I know someone who walked from 100K+ and never had a moment’s distress over it. All you need to do is get one of those call screener things so the collectors can’t get through, be sure and maintain a po box so you can be aware if any of them are actually sending them to an attorney for suit (and if they do, those suits are pretty easy to defeat), wait the obligatory 3-4 years for your state’s statute of limitations to expire, and then go through the hassle of disputing and removing them from your credit report. A lot of collectors are so dumb, you can double dip by suing THEM for FDCPA/ FCRA violations and recover.
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated Announces 2008 Second Quarter Net Charge-Off and Loan Loss Provision Expectations and Confirms Franklin Credit Management Corporation Relationship Continues to Perform to Expectations
“…Huntington also noted that it expects the 2008 second quarter provision for credit losses to exceed net charge-offs by approximately $55-$65 million, compared to $40.2 million in the first quarter, reflecting continued economic weakness in many of its markets. The outlook for the second half of 2008 is for the allowance for loan and lease losses to increase at a slower pace than in the first half of 2008.
In addition, Huntington announced that the Franklin Credit Management Corporation (Franklin) relationship continues to perform consistent with expectations and that through May, second quarter cash flows were slightly higher than those in the comparable 2008 first quarter period. Huntington also expects to remove the tranche A portion of the Franklin loans from non-performing asset status in the second quarter. The tranche A loans were $786 million as of March 31, 2008….”
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080619/clth106.html?.v=55
mentioned that to you two days ago as a short
Yes you did young lady.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM6VN5Lh7naQ&refer=home
Huntington Bancshares Inc. rose $1.43, or 28 percent, to $6.57 for the biggest gain in the S&P 500. The Ohio-based bank, which had lost 60 percent of its market value this year, said uncollectible loans will be within its second-quarter forecast.
check how their debt is trading
…wait the obligatory 3-4 years for your state’s statute of limitations to expire,
Do the peeps even know there’s a time limit on debt collection?
Not really a time limit to debt collection; you can buy the paper and put them on the dialer if the paper is 20 years old. It maybe off bureau and off stats, but you can still call them and ask them if they’d like to clear up their debt. That paper never really dies unless wiped out by a bankruptcy court.
Sounds like a great summer job for teens. They’d learn a lot about he legal system and finance.
They’d also end up with a sh!tload of MP3s.
Dang, there goes the benefit of our 3% cash back credit card (Chase Visa). We have been using it just for gas and groceries, and of course paying the full balance each month.
I suspect the gas stations going cash only will lose customers to those who continue to accept CCs. Few people carry $50+ in currency for local gas purchases, and fewer still in interstate travel for really long trips. Cash only stations will be magnets for armed robbery, as will their customers. Now, a discount for cash purchases vs. CC makes sense, whether or not allowed by the CC companies.
Dealbreaker:
Russian Billionaire Part of Record Deal For Trump Mansion (WSJ)
You know we hate to use the B-word, but sorry, this totally calls for an ag bubble alert. What more symbolism could we need than a Russian fertilizer billionaire paying $100 million for a Palm Beach mansion owned by US real estate billionaire (?) Donal Trump. Seriously.
“What more symbolism could we need?”
A farmer from Missouri buying it from the Russian guy for $120 million?
Good one, Mugster!
“The switcheroo exploits a lending loophole that lets people take out two mortgages. But let’s call it what it is: borderline mortgage fraud.”
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/realestate/article633951.ece
Muggy, from that same article:
“A ploy that’s emerged in the Tampa Bay area is for a homeowner to short sell his home to a friend or relative. Then he “rents” the house back. Voila! A $2,000 mortgage payment becomes a $1,200 rental payment.
In each case the bank’s getting a high colonic.”
Yes, a round of Joshua Trees for all involved…
McCain Scores With Offshore Drilling Proposal
“Suddenly, everything is on the table. Offshore drilling, Alaska drilling, nuclear power, wind, solar, flex-fuel cars, plug-in cars are all increasingly attractive options and John McCain seems alive to the need to go there while Obama is strangely passive. During the Democratic primary, he opposed a gas tax holiday and continues to be against offshore and Alaska drilling and squishy on nuclear power. That leaves turning down your thermostat and walking to work as the Democratic policies.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/mccain_scores_with_offshore_dr.html
The Dem mantra is going to have to change, but change is good, right?
0 stars for that link
Um. The gas tax holiday would have been an indirect subsidy to gas sellers - not consumers. Obama was dead on on that one. (Clinton’s version would have then taken taxes back from the gas sellers - making the whole thing revenue neutral and a complete waste of time.)
And what in the so-called ‘Dem mantra’ has to change exactly?
Take off the blinders. McCain is the worse presidential candidate of the last thirty years. I didn’t think they could find someone worse than Bush, but they did. Amazing.
“I didn’t think they could find someone worse than Bush, but they did.”
Say it ain’t so!
As Michael J. Fox said in Doc Hollywood:
“Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!”
So, let’s see … Big Oil is sitting on 68 million acres of federal land that could potentially produce an additional 5 million barrels of oil and 45 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, but rather than develop those resources, they need to grab more. Uh-huh.
This is coming from the same gang that cynically exploited our understandable fears after 9-11 to launch an unnecessary and unprovoked war against a country that never attacked us. Now, they are trying to exploit our economic anxieties to give away more public resources. Wake up, America. We’re being played once again.
Spare Change you Can Believe IN
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/19/AR2008061903026.html
When you attend a Obama festival you have to fill out a questionaire so his handlers know which postions he will take for the day.
I think if the sheep vote him in they are going to be disapointed when they find the change he was talking about was to put more change in his pocket at everyones expense.
Nice try, Ms. Pelosi….how convenient you talk about being played when those Big Oil boys who “potentially” can produce all that oil have to get permission from a Democratic congress, who would like to play Big Oil out of existence
“against a country that never attacked us.”
I consider attempting to assassinate a former POTUS to be an attack upon the US. The invasion should have begun in 1993.
I consider attempting to assassinate a former POTUS to be an attack upon the US. The invasion should have begun in 1993.
I’m sure you also think that the millions of deaths on both sides of World War 1 were justified when the Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was assasinated in 1914.
My guess is you’re ex-military, using terms like POTUS for that meat-sack currently in the White House. I was US Army, 11Bravo… in six years of service I never found much in the way of independent thought or reason from the leadership, never mind the rank and file.
That kind of thinking is the reason the founding fathers created an electoral voting system…
I’m sure you also think that the millions of deaths on both sides of World War 1 were justified when the Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was assasinated in 1914. There were a few complicating factors & nuances about the situation in 1914 you have conveniently side-stepped.
There were a few complicating factors & nuances about the situation in 1914 you have conveniently side-stepped.
I didn’t side-step any such thing. I pointed out the absurdity of the statement “I consider attempting to assassinate a former POTUS… an attack upon the US.” as if that is justification for thousands of US KIA, tens of thousands wounded/disabled, and a budget deficit run amok from war spending.
History doesn’t repeat, but it certainly rhymes. The political and social unrest of Serbia under Austrian rule and the military alliances of the time certainly made for a volatile situation. It doesn’t change the fact that Ferdinand’s death was used as an excuse by Franz Conrad to decalre war and fuel the Kaiser’s imperialist agenda… the result: millions dead and a defeated Germany pushed to the economic brink, setting the stage for a fascist like Hitler to come to power and a resurgent Germany to wage war again in 1939. Only this time tens of millions suffered or died.
An ignorance of history is rampant in this country. Many wrap themselves in the Amercian flag, declaring their patriotism for all to see while we wage yet another war with no thought to the consequences. Who benefits, but the executives and investors running the military-industrial complex? Certainly not the veterans risking their lives on the battlefield. Who benefits, but the politicians who spread fear amongst the citizens such that we beg for their “protection”.
War is peace. Ignorance is strength and all that jazz…
“My guess is you’re ex-military, using terms like POTUS for that meat-sack currently in the White House.”
I’ll wager he’s a chickenhawk. I wonder how many of the ideological cowards who still support DoughHead have served their country?
Rationalization #246 for the Iraq Debacle: “Dat dang Saddam tried to git my daddy so I done got ‘im!”
Well, I suppose it makes more sense than all that “Weapons of Mass Destruction/Mushroom Clouds/Drones of Death/Mobile BioLabs” and all the rest of the bovine excrement that was spread wide and deep back in ‘03.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/toles_main.html?nid=roll_toonsvid
I thought yesterdays Tom Toles drawing was on target, this is pulitzer prize
Thanks. You’re right. That one’s awesome.
Yep… Right on que. I come back from the morning constitutional and the market tanks… WOW!!!! Maybe I’m some kind of superhero with the power to destroy financial markets!!!! Hmmm, lessee now, *concentrate* Yep! Dropped the market another 5 points Whoa!!!!! I’m the 5th Horseman of the Apocalypes!!! I’m the SHNIZZ!!! I’m -seriously deluded-…
LOL!!! Maybe you could get a job with the PPT. They could pay you to NOT go on walks.
Looks like they’re in full swing today, everytime the market hits -170 or so, it immediately recovers by 50 points…
Oct 2003:
Dow 10,453
June 2008
Dow 11,893
Hey Mr Bear, is this the “Finanacial Innovation” that helps ordinary folks with retirement accounts feel good about the future? Maybe, they would do better with an ordinary “old fashioned” : “savings account”
About the Malicious Mortgage bust yest., one of the guys had a house in Moab, small world (I lived there 8 years):
From the Salt Lake Tribune (sltrib dot com):
Federal authorities announced Thursday a sweeping crackdown on mortgage fraud that has led to charges against more than 400 people nationwide, including two Utahns.
…
State Rep. Paul Ray, R-Clinton, who has worked in recent years to pass legislation aimed at reducing mortgage fraud in Utah, applauded the agency’s decision to announce the hundreds of cases at once.
“The only way to send a message to the public that there’s a chance you’re going to get caught is to throw 400 indictments out there at one time,” Ray said.
…
The two Utahns are Jerry C. Huff, 49, of Hurricane, and Bryan D. Conrad, 37, of Salt Lake City. Each was indicted on separate and unrelated charges relating to mortgage fraud.
Authorities say Huff lied to convince a bank to provide him with a $250,000 second mortgage on his home in Moab, a loan on which he has failed to make payments.
According to the indictment, Huff lied about the condition and value of his home, overstated his income and submitted false documents, such as a fake appraisal, so that his loan would be approved.
The indictment also says Huff submitted copies of personal tax forms as part of his loan application when in reality he hadn’t filed tax returns for those years.
…
Nationally, banks reported nearly 53,000 cases of suspected mortgage fraud last year, up from more than 37,000 a year earlier and about 10 times the level of reports in 2001 and 2002, according to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.
The most common type of mortgage fraud was inflating income or assets to qualify for a loan, followed by forging documents, inflating appraisals and misrepresenting a buyer’s intent to occupy a property as a primary residence. Loans based on primary residences are looked at more favorably by lenders.
Utah is ranked fifth nationally in loans showing signs of fraud or misrepresentation on a per-capita basis, based on 2007 data analyzed by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute, an affiliate of information provider ChoicePoint.
Ray said Utah needs more people to investigate and prosecute such crimes.
“This is such a big problem, we don’t have enough people to deal with all of it,” he said.
But God said it is OK to be polyhomeous.
As Oly would say, hilariosity!
lost, based on the causes listed for arrest, someone better start building more prisons. We are talking about millions…
Possible solution-CA sub contracts out our prisoners to other states (public and private prisons). Maybe we could send them to Mexico in exchange for their illegals.
lol
Easy fix, just release everyone who’s there on minor drug charges, like smoking pot. Will open up a lot of space.
Now where else are you going to get room, three squares, TV, health care and constant attention from your roomie. Though I hear it better in the Fed prison than the state pokie.
Besides what better place the fraudsters than a Mexican jail? As I understand it (no personal experience), inmates have to pay for their own space on the ground and their own food. Forget TV and health insurance, though you still personal attention from all 600 inmates in a 100 x 100 ft. cell.
lol
I think they call it “rendition”.
gee, I didn’t realize you were so liberal!!!
lol
I’m not liberal, I’m an anarchist..I mean, anarcheologist.
LOL
Well, at least law enforcement is finally stating openly that lying on loan applications is against the law .They even mentioned the misrepresenting of buyers intent to occupy a property as a primary residence as a possible violation . How many borrowers/speculators purchase five properties at once saying that they intended to occupy them as their primary residence?
In my view ,there reached a point in the housing mania where a high percentage of the loan packages were fraudulent in one way or
another . The loan crime wave makes Dodds bail-out proposals even more absurd .
That’s not to say that I don’t think that some of the loans that were written for buyers, that did tell the truth on their loan applications,
weren’t faulty toxic loans that weren’t good for long term loans . I mean if the lender has a good borrower like that ,they should give them a break and give them a loan that was designed more for long term ownership . The lenders can do this on their own however ,but fraudulent borrowers and speculators can’t be saved IMHO .
My idea on bail-outs is re-writing loans for people who could of gotten a better loan at the time they applied ,but they were hoodwinked into
taking a loan that the commissioned salespeople where pushing because they made more commissions on them , It does not offend me that a borrower gets a loan that they should of gotten to begin with.
But, giving people loans that they don’t deserve is offensive to me ,especially if they committed fraud ,or they were a short term speculator ,or they were playing the system for refinance money .
Breaking news… Ford to delay intro of the new F150 - This is huge news, the price of gas has gotten to the point that it’s made an entire class of vehicles functionally obsolescent for most consumers.
You only need a pickup truck if you’re hauling stuff. I never understood the big vehicle status symbol thing. Maybe it has to do with other *shortcomings*…
I have a big Toyota Tundra with a camper on it and I feel very conspicuous driving it, and that’s in the land of big pickups and lots of tourists with campers. Took a tour in a Hummer once and felt like a poser. Feel quite comfortable in an old VW bug or junker car. Not into bling. But the Ford F series are THE trucks out here for farmers/ranchers/construction/oilpatch, etc.
Yea, but of all people, you’ve got a legit purpose for your rig. Around here, folks (town dwellers) have 2 and 3 of the biggest 4×4s around. 1 each for hubby, wifey, and the biggest jacked up monster for 16 year old son to drive to HS.
By the way, the folks at the end of my street with the incognito home for sale are now listing on 2 realtor websites… Can you say “desperation”?
No, that’s a LONG word, but I can spell it…
F-B-er
You have a Tundra and an FJCruiser?
Wanna switch lives for a week or two?
(Blush) Sorry ’bout the minivan thing that I’d stick ya with! CNY has some great dig sites and some beautiful scenery. I know you could be happy for at least a week.
Note: As a former white water raft guide and a man who can take a truck places where I just hold my breath, I have to take my dh w/me. (which reminds me Auger-inn, I have this great camping location up by you if you’ve got a 4 wheel drive)
I never understood the big vehicle status symbol thing. Maybe it has to do with other *shortcomings*…
One long-delayed project my girlfriend and I keep meaning to get around to is … making bumper stickers that say “Does this make my PENIS look bigger?” and putting the stickers on big SUV bumpers under cover of darkness.
There’s a Hummer near my house whose owner is begging to be outed.
(Though an F-150 seems like a practical vehicle for some — unlike, say, Hummers and Escalades.)
suprised you got that one past the blog software
suprised you got that one past the blog software
Me too, but I figured it was worth a shot.
LOL! That reminds me of the sticker my brother and I were going to make and then lurk around Telluride and put on fancy vehicles:
“Houses: everyone gets one before anyone gets a second.”
I know, I know, we’re insurrectionists…
Iknew a guy who had a bumper sticker that said “women who know me call me Mr. Big” I put tape over the wo in women and the g in Big, hedrove around town for a few days with a bumper sticker that said “men who know me call me Mr. Bi “
Not that there is anything wrong with that.
That’s great, wanna join our team?
Where are you lost ?
A friend of mine used to go out to the bars wearing a button on her shirt that said “No Teenie-Weenies”. You have no idea how many men blanched & ran away when they read it
jeff, where am I? Well, if I knew, I wouldn’t be Lost, would I?
(SE Utah)
oh please, please do it! that would be an awesome bumper sticker…
[while looking at Lord Farquaad's huge castle]
Shrek: “Do you think he’s maybe compensating for something?”
I always laugh when I ask people why they need a truck and they respond that they “haul stuff”. Turns out, most of they time they haul something 5-6 times per year (annual garage clean-out, trip to dump, supplies, etc.).
I always thought it was silly to spend countless hundreds more on gas, and thousands more for the equipment (not to mention insurance, etc.) when you can rent a U-Haul for $30 for a day when you need it.
If there were a way to invest in Thule (private company) or Yakima (I also think private), I would do it. I foresee lots of people buying smaller cars and putting racks on the roof, recognizing that for the few times per year that they really need the extra space of the SUV, they can put the stuff on a roof-mounted carrier.
My brother is a diesel tech for Ford. Ford bought out the dealership he works ford in the IE and is closing it down. They are also looking to close 9 other dealerships in the area.
Ford and International are in a big legal fight over the 6.0 engine and the 6.4 engine. There suing International for billions due to poor engineering. A lot of mechanics are going to be out of work.
The dealer who sold my deceased brother-in-law an F-150, two months after he passed away?
After which, my sister had to jump thru a bunch of hoops to PROVE he was deceased, and couldn’t possibly have purchased it?
CAT exits on highway engines.
Cummins=Go Westport
the LNG hoard
LOL
So far so good.
its a little resource allocation game I’ve been playing…
vertical integration from in ground to delivery station to engine….
tough nut to crack….been a long time coming.
el Groupo TMM…….still looks good.
Formation Cap is knocking down regulatory barriers.
ferret it out, start digging, build it, ship it…
Then you deserve the rewards.
Patience and homework = large profits.
A Ford F-150 is supposed to be the vehicle most likely to be driven by “The Millionaire Next Door”.
I’ve had this book tossed in my face as an antidote to Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad Poor Dad. Oddly enough, the author of MND had to sue his publisher for royalties. Maybe he should have gone to Michael Lechter (husband of Sharon Lechter, coauthor of RDPD), an intellectual proterty atty who stripped the Cleveland Browns name from Art Modell.
Breaking news… Ford to delay intro of the new F150 Meanwhile in other countries Ford continues to profit from selling its trucks with small turbo-diesels that get 40+mpg. None are available in the USA. I believe GM & Chrysler have similar products that do well outside of the USA. Ford will be bringing its Transit van, extremely popular in the UK, to the US soon as the Ford Transit Connect van. Unfortunately, its 2.2L turbodiesel will not be available here, the gas engines that it will come with get maybe 20 mpg, so no real difference to an F150’s mileage.
An opposing trend in a downturn is the tendency to hang onto vehicles longer. An enterprising mechanic should be able to make a living - just not as cushy, perhaps.
I’ve got my trust Taurus in the shop today to have the relay board for the air conditioning circuit replaced. Not too bad now, but I’ll need it by August when the temps hit 112 degrees actual and 120 on the heat and humidity index… WHEW!!!
Just got the call from the mechanic - $121 - not too bad considering the TarBaby hasn’t needed work in over 2 years…
The guys in our shop have so much time on their hands lately that I pay for parts and they go get ‘em and work on my truck for free. Can’t beat that.
The 2nd time the A/C went out on my Chrysler minivan I told the shop to remove the A/C compressor & install an idler pulley & non-A/C serpentine belt, and drove it for 2 more years with natural air. The repairman was stunned & had never heard of anyone ever doing that before until I told him about it. Way cheaper than fixing the A/C. I suspect many non-critical auto repairs won’t be done at all in the coming economy.
I suspect many non-critical auto repairs won’t be done at all
Unfortunately, in a lot of cases, when times get tough “non-critical” includes things like replacing tyres and fixing brakes/steering.
Yup, the repair can’t cost more than the replacement value.
I do the books for a a repair facility. Business is booming at our shop but I hear the dealerships’ repair facilities have been hurting. I think it’s a push - some people will hold the car longer but some people will delay repairs. Many times I have overheard a technician tell a customer they need something done and the customer will opt to only get the car driveable.
We’re probably doing well because we’ve made a push to go to small companies and hospitals running small fleets in the area and cut deals.
Has anyone seen the article from the NYT on the massive air exercises being held by Israel that look like a work-up to an attack on Iran? I think it will happen to say the truth. I’ve tried to post the link but it keeps getting lost.
Don`t worry, Obama will talk to Iran and if that doesn`t work he will take them to court.
Hmmm. The Bush administration is currently talking with Iran. The DoubleTalkExpress said on camera in 2006 “we should be talking with our enemies”.
I’ll pass on the cup of hypocrisy. Thank you.
and thank you,for the first time I am proud of America
I remember when John McCain said that when asked about spending time in the Hilton Hanoi.
I remember when Mrs. Obama said it after her husband won a primary.
Did anyone just catch the report on CNBC where the reporter in LA took the train to work instead of her car? She was not happy and sneeringly dismissed her walk to work as “only nobodies walk in LA”. Then after admitting that it could save up to 50K in 5 years for many commuters, she ended the piece by saying “there may be some people that would find that it’s worth it…” WTF!!!!!!!!!
This is why we are going to have SUCH a tough time….
This is why we are going to have SUCH a tough time….
Shrug.
That’s the City of Vacuous Plastic People for you.
I suspect there’ll be a great deal more flexibility — or less misplaced pride — elsewhere.
It was 109 degrees in el aye yesterday. stay home or use a helicopter.
No kidding, its only 11.30am and already my backyard thermometer is showing 92 degrees (in the shade), here in sunny Van Nuys.
Saudi oilfields on Viagra?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25281491
Attended fundraiser in Newport Harbor this week and made a point of speaking to as many folks as possible about what was going on in their lives at present.
The people who owned oil wells were very very happy right now. The land barons, however, spoke longingly of dropping out, building a perfect little self-sustaining place in the islands/country where they could be with their families. It seemed to me that most of the over 40’s attendees knew the jig was up and were trying to overcome inertia and come to grips with the new reality they were facing…not so much a loss of fortune, as a loss of rootedness.
It was most interesting to see uber-Republicans both subdued and sullen. The biggest Bush Boosters on the planet were openly scathing (to the point of seething hatred,) of him and his administration…a huge flip-flop from even a year ago.
The party itself was at a newer( extraordinary,) waterfront home, that was itself one of six properties subdivided from the original lot. A new home was being built a few lots over, tented, 12′ fencing, (custom-not chain link,) and on the gate to the job site was an industrial-type 20″x30″ sign firmly prohibiting -among other horrors- dogs, radios, cigarettes, alcohol, loud or excessive talking/profanity, presence on the job site before 7am or after 5pm, or parking work vehicles on the street. Now THERE’s an HOA!
Tomorrow is the 85th birthday bash for a local ranching legend up here in East Yahoo. The guy has hisself a millionairess Lady/Grande Dame, a 78 AND a 7-year-old son, (with fourteen acknowledged in between.) Dry, ascerbic, hysterically funny man. I am at once charmed and terrified by him. Grilled wild boar and Jack… I should get an earful of the same political frustrations from the opposite end of the social spectrum.
I’m betting not many of them want to pull up stakes and leave for a new life in the city.
Time to go pick raspberries for a pie to take….
mmm… caeser salad, shitake mushrooms, and a nice reisling.
LOL! Where’s Hoz?
Picking the mushrooms out of the horse manure.
Have fun Lost and Voz!
you know I dont eat that stuff:
its all about neckbones, turnip greens, and corn squeezins.
Dang it voz,
Now I’m hungry.
another nfp gets it in the rear:
YMCA of Riverside City & County
Riverside, CA
The Riverside YMCA will have to lay off employees and scrap some summer services to 2,000 children because of the $34.5 million federal grant Indio Youth Task Force officials returned in April. The YMCA was one of several agencies and six Southern California school districts that joined the task force in its application for the 21st Century Community Learning Center Programs Grant. Jackie Fielder, chief program officer and executive director of Moreno Valley and Riverside YMCA, said officials were notified in May 2007 that they would receive $18 million for children’s programming in the western part of the county. The task force announced the award officially on June 28 last year. The Riverside YMCA is facing a budget crisis because it won’t get the grant money and will have to lay off employees, Fielder said. She doesn’t know how many people could lose their jobs or when they will be let go.
The Desert Sun - June 14, 2008
hoz,
I’m little confused by this “because of the $34.5 million federal grant Indio Youth Task Force officials returned in April.” Why would the task force return the money? Does the newspaper article say why?
Ben, this is OT, but it IS Friday and it pretty much captures a symbolic look at the housing industry (this one’s for you HD47):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHN4FENMVII
Lost, once again very compelling video. is that little hell’s falls or some such name?
I did that same river run back in the daze. We made it thru that funny spot w/o a hitch because our guide was knols: national outdoor leadership school. Would you mind playing some japanese koto flute instead of supertramp?
Ouro, I didn’t make that one, so don’t know anything about it. I think it’s in New Zealand, not sure.
Ute girl;
I hearby confiscate your crappy portfolio and give you fifteen years of CDO’s and MBS’s.
Next?
Is there a place you can take video of the utah rushing rapids?
Thanks Ouro, my portfolio was sinking fast.
Speaking of sinking, there’s a youtube poster called monette39 who has lots of Colo. River videos that are fun to watch if you like high water. There’s prob. lots of others, too.
wait…CDOs??? MBSs????? things really are sinking…
I misunderstood your Q - actually, the rivers are receding, but my video camera’s in storage anyway.
Look out! It’s a twister, it’s a twister!
No, it’s a cyclone and some pig men behind the curtain.
The wizard of Oz has spoken.
The great and comical wiz’s on wall st.
Double top on gold today?
javascript:NewWindow(’/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html’,'Au30Days’,'top=50,left=200,width=670,height=560′);
Oregon Vehicle Dealer Association Warning:
Check your title on your fabulous Craigslist buy.
Branded (Salvage) Title vehicle growth by State:
Arizona UP 90%
Texas UP 141%
Nevada UP 220%
The real Iraq and Iran Story.
Ever wonder why 19 Saudi Arabians can conspire to crash airliners into the World Trade Center, then do it, but then it is Iraq that is invaded and occupied? Why do you think it happened that way, HBBers? I bet the more partisan your politics, left or right, the more off-base your thinking.
Did you ever wonder WHY Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait? Why was that HBBers?
Have you ever wondered WHO makes all the $$$ when oil is going for $135 per barrel? Is it the Saudis? The Iraqis? the Iranians? Exxon-Mobil?
Friends of Bush? All of the above? Or somebody else?
Here’s a little clue. Why have the Saudis consistently sold oil for dollars only? Why would they do that? Who stands to gain from that arrangement? Why does the U.S. not drill in Alaskan fields proven to contain as much oil as we would need to be energy independent, but kept secret from MSM coverage?
Who stands to gain from that arrangement and secrecy?
Why are we seemingly paralyzed by partisan politics on the energy issue that threatens our national security and economy?
Let me suggest that there are international banking concerns, not unrelated to the international banking cartel euphemistically known as the “Federal Reserve Bank”; who are, financially speaking, planning to dine upon YOUR carcass. There is a class of human which rules this planet, and you and I are not among them.
The Saudis have signed agreements with them.
To sell their oil exclusively in dollars, and to continuously in return, buy our Treasury bonds and other Government paper. They were told they would become RICH if they did this. They have. You and I have not.
You and I don’t have personal oil reserves. Saddam did, but would not sign on the dotted line. Iran has oil, but will not sign.
Therefore, the people who actually control this planet decided Saddam had to go. He did. They have also decided Iran’s government must be toppled.
Welcome to tomorrow’s headlines. Don’t even think that the puppet show elections will change anything. “It isn’t the people who cast their votes that make a difference. It’s the people who COUNT the votes that make a difference.”- J. Stalin
“Why does the U.S. not drill in Alaskan fields proven to contain as much oil as we would need to be energy independent”…
Having played a lot of “resource”-style simulation games, I’ve always thought the reason was this: Our country gives pieces of paper with pictures on it to country B for something actually valuable: oil. After a long enough time, country B runs out of oil. Soon countries B, C, D and E run out of oil - they have lots of paper though. At this time country A, the US of A, has huge oil fields to draw from - resources galore -, while all the competing countries have huge mounds of paper and some entries in computers that say they are due even more paper.
When this happens, who will you think got the better deal? When the well’s dry, we know the worth of water.
The one with the resources rules. It’s not about controlling the paper, it’s about controlling the resources. It boggles my mind that more people don’t understand this.