Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Incentives? “Facing a soft housing market, Nashville’s real estate agents are moving in for a hard sell. The Nashville real estate market is glutted with an estimated 25,000 unsold properties. Stuck with properties they can’t unload, homeowners, real estate agents and developers are resorting to increasingly wild incentive offers to get potential buyers through the door.”
“‘We’re calling it ’smart luxury,’ said Realtor Sheri C. Smith, whose clients are offering a free Mercedes Smart Car to anyone who buys their $1.58 million home.”
“Realtors are counting on incentives, not slashed prices, to close the deal. ‘Has anyone bought (a home) because of the incentive? Not yet,’ said Mandy Wachtler, president of the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors.”
Tax increases.? “Many Fannin taxpayers must be shaking their heads in disbelief, thinking they are in a bad dream receiving notices that their property values have doubled. But, this is exactly what has happened.”
“One of the examples Fannin County’s chief tax appraiser, Lori Galloway, used was a home valued at $114,607 that sold for $190,000 in 2004. In 2007 it sold again for $295,000. Those who have followed the housing market know this is not likely an extreme example, but a common one.”
Slower sales? “Bob Jehl looked down from the 26th floor of the National City Bank Building at the new ballpark quickly taking shape a few blocks away. Jehl’s not a big baseball fan, but the 45-year-old electrical engineer envisions the day he and the Wizards are neighbors.”
“Developers of Harrison Square’s 62 proposed condominiums wined and dined Jehl and other prospective buyers. ‘But the prices are a little high, and I’d have to sell my house first,’ he said.”
“Springfield real estate broker Dick Sage has specialized for almost 30 years in rural properties, and he…wasn’t a bit surprised when sales of outlying homes took the hardest hit in Lane County’s most recent monthly market report. ‘It’s the fuel prices,’ he said. ‘The further away (from town) you get, the more that’s going to be an input (in people’s home-buying evaluations). It’s a fixed cost, just like an increased mortgage.’”
“The area extending from Pleasant Hill to Oakridge went from 25 pending sales in May 2007 to seven last month (down 72 percent), Veneta/Elmira went from 24 sales to 12 (down 50 percent) and Cottage Grove/Creswell went from 42 sales to 24 (down 42.9 percent).”
Economic fallout? “The economic slowdown has cranked up the pressure for many Rogue Valley job seekers. The combination of a declining real estate market, hiring freezes by some employers grappling with rising fuel and shipping costs and the entry of college and high school graduates ready to work has made for a crowded job market.”
“‘There doesn’t seem to be light at the end of any particular tunnel,’ says Fred Holloway of Holloway Human Resource Consulting. ‘Some don’t even know where the tunnel is right now.’”
“As a world-class culinary destination, Las Vegas should offer a buffet of job opportunities for food-and-beverage worker Jeff Hill. Instead of feasting on multiple offers, though, Hill finds little appetite for new hires among local hotels and restaurants.”
“‘I hear a lot of, ‘No, thank you,’ or, ‘We’ll keep your resume on file and call you in 90 days,’ said Hill. ‘It’s been very difficult.’”
“May’s results lay to rest the ‘myth’ that Nevada feels economic torpor less, and for shorter periods, than the rest of the country, said Jered McDonald, an economist with the employment department.”
“But Brian Gordon, a principal in (an) economic-research firm, said it’s tough to draw broader conclusions from the current downturn because it comes from a unique coalescence of factors, including a bust in record housing prices and a cyclical dip in resort openings.”
“‘I think there’s some validity to the concept that Las Vegas is both resourceful and resilient, but we have several factors creating a negative situation,’ Gordon said. ‘We never saw peaks in the housing market like the ones we had, and we’ll probably never see those kinds of peaks again.’”
Or foreclosures? “Of the 350 resold homes in Surprise in May 2008, 105 were foreclosure sales. Last year in the city, 240 homes were resold, of which 25 were foreclosures. The median resale price for all homes this year was $185,240, whereas last year the median price was $245,070.”
“Glendale, like Surprise, experienced a spike in home resale activity last month as 375 homes changed hands compared to 355 transactions last year. Of the 375 sales, 105 were foreclosures. The median price in the city was $190,000 in May 2008, compared to $243,000 last year.”
“More than half of the townhouse/condominium resales during the month of May in Glendale were the result of a foreclosure. There were 25 townhouse sales at a median price of $111,945, of which 15 were foreclosed. Last year there were 50 traditional condominium sales at a median price of $147,000.”
“Of the 90 homes resold in El Mirage last month, 35 were foreclosures. The 90 homes resold at a median price of $132,000. Last year during the month of May, 55 homes were sold at a median price of $200,000, of which 10 were foreclosures.”
A note about the Arizona price declines; the press here almost never mentions the drop from the peak, which was in 2006.
Maybe they understand the full scope and enevitability of the correction, and truely pity the RE industry.. and are showing mercy by minimizing the publication of unsavory statistics..
[cue laugh track #8: 5 second duration]
I have seen some areas around here drop 50% from the peak.I know on the outskirts the foreclosures are everywhere.You can buy a house for 90k out there.I saw a house in arizona city for 60k.I think professional investors are circleing like vultures.
Let them circle. They better be prepared to be landlords for a long, long time because they’re not going to hop on some appreciation train. Historically, one of the main attractions to AZ has always been cheap housing. I suspect that is rapidly returning.
The death knell was sounded for the cheap fixed mortgage tonight as Britain’s biggest lender raised rates by up to 0.5 per cent.
Halifax - which provides one in five new mortgages - pushed up the cost of more than half of its fixed-rate deals.
It became the last of the ‘Big Four’ to impose massive rate rises on cash-strapped homeowners this week.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1028079/Halifax-big-lenders-hit-homeowners-punishing-rate-rises.html
Starting to shake, I think I’m going cold turkey without my fix of cheap credit.
They have no choice.
Higher rates or pound collapses, and the latter has more consequences.
Higher rates or pound (dollar) collapses, and the latter has more consequences.
——————————————————————
this will be soon playing in the states.
If the idiots running the Federal Reserve would bother to try to save the dollar, we’d be in better shape.
I know it is just the Fed that is causing this problem - the overconsumption and absurd levels of debt and leverage are the real causes - but they certainly are not helping.
Just saw a bit on the morning news that shows gas prices up about 25% in one year. Good thing inflation is “contained!”
RE: Clothing optional!
Good luck to Tampa area appraiser’s to try and put a value on this condo amenity…
I guess value will all depend on who is layin’ around the pool on the day of inspection.
Beware of bodies for hire!
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/jun/17/rumors-clothing-optional-pool-turn-heads/
Hilarious!
Ultimately, I think this lowers the value,since I think it is a limited number of people that really want to participate in that . . . of course that means that limited group may all show up . . . wow, talk about “Melrose Place” on steroids.
Maybe this could be the next reality tv show.
Droopy Danglers : The Movie
Saggy Boobs : The Musical
BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
warning - no picture22151 has some sales ,but some foreclosures sit while banks drag feet
This is typical Tampa stuff. We get all the pervs in various guises, including “Naturist” (translation: horny exhibitionist/voyeur/”swinger”) and a few miles north we have several nudist condo/camps crammed with them. I have a friend whose husband dragged her to one, and she said it was ALL sex-related, no matter what the PR claimed. She also said, she’d never seen so many hideous people before in her life.
How pitiful that the owners of this apartment complex (in a terrible part of town) going condo have to stoop as low as possible (danglies scraping the ground) in order to drum-up prospective buyers. In Tampa, people will do anything for money. We even, briefly, had a doughnut shop called Dolly’s Donuts, where all the waitresses (hags, blimps, and gorgons) were topless. I wondered at the what toothless drug addict was standing in the kitchen poking holes through the dough with his other needle.
“…and we’ll probably never see those kinds of peaks again.”
Was explaining this to Marge this morning at breakfast - how far prices fall is not what will inflict the most pain - it’s the duration that they remain below whatever a given buyer paid. The “V-shapers” are absolutely convinced this is only a blip and so each passing month peels another layer off this stinky onion.
My friend that I failed to convince against buying a 1 bdrm condo is already underwater - and his closing isn’t until next week. Several recent comps in his immediate area (Lincoln Square, Chicago) are already coming in $10k-$20k lower. He won’t even talk to me - not since I asked him what his rate was going to be - and he responded that his broker/friend was still “waiting to lock in a great rate”.
Lincoln Square is probably my favorite nabe in Chicago but the idea of buying a 1-bdrm there is moronic.
And the construction quality sucks (I was there both last summer and the one before that.) That new stuff is not well insulated against a typical Chicago winter.
There will be consequences.
Crain’s did a story on a yuppie couple that had to jettison two condos here to enable a move to Beantown. The dude finally found a GF for his place in Ukie Village - but the girl can’t find a buyer for her newer construction Lincoln Square condo - @$360k! Imagine - $360k for a 1 bdrm in Lincoln Square.
The place is just north of the McDonald’s - and let’s just say that immediate area around the Western/Lincoln/Lawrence intersection falls short of being picturesque. In fact, during the winter especially, it’s downright depressing and always crammed with traffic.
Condo pain is coming to Chicago in spite of the disbelief of the wiley and highly adaptive “it’s different here” crowd we have here.
I have a friend who “levered” up in 2006. 2-bdrm for $345K.
He’s paid it off since but I still don’t think that price is justified.
That stuff will sell for $240K or so in two years or so.
Condo pain is coming to Chicago in spite of the disbelief of the wiley and highly adaptive “it’s different here” crowd we have here.
The condo pain is coming, slowly but surely. I think Roscoe Village and Lincoln Square have been a little stickier than many other northside neighborhoods, though.
Meanwhile, further to the north or west, or away from obvious “features” such as proximity to the El or 90/94, prices are taking a hit and inventory is still increasing as more new construction is thrown online, Hail Mary-style.
I have friends who own a place in Albany Park and now live in Marin County, CA — they’ve been unable to generate much interest in their condo despite some fairly aggressive price reductions and some common area improvements initiated by the condo association. So they pay rent in Cali and mortgage in Illinois. Last I checked, their pricing was decent if not outstanding (they ain’t gonna “give it away”) — but competition is fierce. There’s an incredible amount of (mostly crappy) new construction and rehabs up there.
Oy.
All you seem to be saying is that the bust is coming “outside in” but then it ALWAYS does.
The most desirable places (access to the El, 90/94, or downtown) always bust last.
That’s not terribly surprising, is it?
Mabye your “friend” will see the light and walk away and “lose” far less then if he actually closes.
Ya think he is that smart?
He has to buy, he’s programmed to - can’t help it. His plan is to convert the dining room of a 1bdrm into a second bdrm - in case a bambino comes along.
The “have to buy” pyschology is absolutely fascinating to watch up close. The agents really did one heck of a job on our society.
I know the rents in that neighborhood.
What’s with the “have to buy”? Did the Brown Line suddenly become hip?
WTF?!?
Nah, it’s a simply a combo of “buy now before prices resume their climb” and “paying rent is throwing money away”.
The cat in question hasn’t used public transit in years - except to go to the Taste of Chicago.
No native of Chicago goes to the moronic Taste. That’s for the suburban crowd who come down once a year.
We, who lived there, could just go to the restaurants for cheaper. Sounds like a poser.
Yeah, maybe the young hipsters can get away with their “have to buy” stupidity `cause Daddy up in Winnetka keeps his checkbook handy.
Hell, when I used to work out at the Degerberg Academy, Lincoln Square was little more than a bunch of German delis and Thai restaurants–surrounded by the “charm” [translation: low-income grunge] of dismal Uptown.
“his broker/friend was still “waiting to lock in a great rate”.”
He has no clue what will really be locked in. Dummy.
Local agents shill on trulia.com
http://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/Have_others_noticed_the_market_heating_up_for_star-41340–
Wonder how the agent who planted the question is doing selling those “lake” front properties on the area previously known as Lake Delton?
Also, way to overprice a home:
http://www.starkhomes.com/1525910 - this home is one of the most expensive in this subdivision and is also a foreclosure. Nothing is selling in that subdivision for that amount. An agent listed a much nicer house down the street for the same price in January, even though many houses were priced lower and the ones listed higher were not selling. After six months, it finally came down 20K, but still not selling.
The situation has been addressed and its no longer having the impact he had hoped.
Cool….cat fight on trulia!!
MadBoy…you know that It’s different HERE in Wisconsin !
Here at Crazy Mikey’s used underwater house and submersible truck sale, we say Buy Used Now !
And…our new motto is “Why Buy New and OUR Cows Float ? ” We are having our Annual Summer 500 Year Flood Closeout Sale and do we have some great deals for YOU!.
There are NO BUBBLES LEFT here in Wisconsin. Our entire state went down for the third time and mercifully gave up THAT ghost and drowned along with with our corporate ethanol corn crop. (No bubbles here, we’re PAST DEAD!)
So why buy new ? We have thousands of slightly used, water logged, 50-100 year old, energy guzzling houses with moldy basements floating around here somewhere that we must MOVE NOW. See our hungry local owners and greedy realtywhore for prices, a showing and a detailed screwing.(You might care to wait until the water goes down slightly if you are a non swimmer or have really short kids)
Need a fine slighty used car ? Why buy new? Here at Crazy Mikey’s Wisconsin Used Home and Car lot, we’ll have thousands of cars, trucks, snowmobiles and other associated gasoline powered junk coming on line shortly. Be sure to ask about our Foreclosure Specials and our owners or our sales personel will be delighted to pick you up on our handy dandy jetskis for your personal showing. They’re all priced to sell and won’t last long. Get on down here and support the Ownership Society Now! You get a Free famous Wisconsin Water Skiing Squirrel and an authentic Red Chinese balloon for the kiddies with each purchase.
Buy one of our premium priced lakeshore or riverfront Dream Homes now and have a family summertime adventure trying to locate or find it in one of our fine water damaged junkers.(Mikey’s Summertime Adventure trip offer may be subject to available open roads, lost lakes, A.W.O.L bridges and tidal surge restrictions in certain locations.)
Can’t afford the price of gasoline? Here at Crazy Mikey’s Summer Flood Madness Sales, we aren’t cheap! Our houses, cars and cows are proven floaters and we’ll give you a free paddle, lifejacket and rescue flare gun with every every name on the dotted line.
Credit is not a problem here at Crazy Mikey’s, as we can deal in gold bars or teeth, 1st born children and all kinds of flexible, lifetime indentured servitude programs.
Crazy Mikey says “BUY LIKE MAD NOW ..because Tomorrow..It might be Against the Law”
mikey,
Athough your sales are very tempting, I think I’ll pass.
My afternoon fun is to go to an open house for a flip property. I saw it right after the foreclosure and want to see if the flipper disclosed everything. Oh, and see the agent cringe when I ask about those pesky permits!
Just got back from the flip open house….
I didn’t think it could lose value, but at least as a foreclosure I could see the problems.
Overall, very cheap quality.
Hahahaha - the free Red Chinese balloon was what did it for me!
Great, now I have to clean soda off the monitor… hehehehe…
Contrary to what so many Realtors (TM) claim, California house prices are not even close to being done falling. The median California home price of $339K is 6.2 times the median household income of $55K. When the median price drops to $200K and Realtors (TM) are widely throwing in free cars and free gas as incentives to buy, then perhaps a bottom will be in place.
The depression the US will face in the coming years is just getting started. As banks fail and perp walks continue, more people will realize how housing speculation has destroyed the US economy.
The reality is that there are three main parts of the private-sector economy in the US: finance, health care, and housing. Note that all three require abundant amounts of cheap debt. While there are US companies active in other parts–energy, materials, technology–most of their footprint is offshore, and only the profits flow back to the US.
We all know what is happening to finance and housing. The real question is what will happen to the US economy when the only viable sector left is health care? I predict that much lower living standards are on the way for the median household. It is impossible to build a world class economy on health care.
Keep the popcorn popping,
Red Baron
OT, but US health care is grossly overpriced and inefficient by world standards due to cozy corporate-crony legislation pushed by bought legislators. An egregious example is the Medicare drug coverage which *forbids* Medicare from negotiating lower prices for medication. A Tabasco-marinated joshua tree to the crooks who inserted that provision.
And medical tourism is still in the nascent stages — it will really take off as more people lose health coverage, or see their coverage pay for less and less. A retired friend went to India for a heart bypass operation — it cost him $15k instead of $200k and he found the quality of care was just as good.
medical tourism is still in the nascent stages ??
I am considering going myself…I need two knees scoped and my Ins. considers them elective so no coverage…Would cost me $50,000. easy…Can do it out of the country for $10k or less…
Here’s something annoying: I was listening to our local NPR station in San Diego on my way to work, the “editors round table”, and they were discussing the poor economy, and also how houses are way overpriced and no one with the median income can afford them.
Their happy solution? San Diego should import people who make more money than the deadbeats who currently live here! Yes, they were foaming at the mouth at how much biotech people make, and SD now has twice as many biotech workers as at some period prior, and how the industry is growing.
They truly wanted to throw out the Service and Hospitality industry (which is major in San Diego, but whose workers don’t make much), but then they acknowledged that tourism will always be a huge factor in San Diego, so it has to stay . . .)
I was like: thanks kpbs. according to you, people who make the current median or less, can suck it and leave, so that housing prices can stay high. Let’s just import a bunch of people who make more money so we can keep housing prices high, and then we won’t have any problems with the economy . . .
Yeah, ha! don’t expect money from me, kpbs.
This doesn’t work.
Everyone can’t be above average by definition.
Changing the composition of incomes can work for certain towns if they are smart about it which I assure you Enron-By-The-Sea is not.
Everyone can’t be above average by definition.
Tell it to the Baby Boomers — their entire existence is predicated on their unique, ineffable above-averageness. And, heck, their kids are all above average, too.
“Everyone can’t be above average by definition.”
In Lake Wobegone ALL the children are above average.
Here’s something annoying: I was listening to our local NPR station in San Diego.
The real pisser about NPR on a national and local basis, is that they get our tax dollars whether you want them to or not. That’s how so many marginally talented people and some of the worst radio voices on the air get a job.
NPR has no incentive to promote anything that might reduce tax dollars and so reduce their spending budget. I don’t see how they can even pretend to be unbiased when taxes enter the discussion.
And that suggests a credibility problem since everything is taxed in some way, shape or form..
Fortunately there are other public radio networks besides NPR: PRI, APM, MPR, to name a few. NPR, for better or worse, has the branding — but they do have competitors with excellent programming.
That same thinking is here in Florida, as well.
In Palm Beach, Biotech factories were going to be built to attract higher paid workers. I don’t recall how all that worked out. But we have the Govt./Industry complex concept here in Tampa as well at USF.
The bottom line is that America is slowly becoming just another banana republic. We are pushing the middle-class into the ditch to provide a luxury highway for Government employees and intellectual and physical property owners.
Average people who work for a living are being forced to a lower standard to support the govt. /education/corp. complex.
It’s a sad state of affairs.
luxury highway for Government employees ??
Exactly….I say, thats where the ultimate revolt is…
It’ll be especially hard to build an economy on healthcare in the coming new world where almost nobody will be able to afford healthcare.
Greedy wishing prices still rule in the DC suburbs of MD.
I keep seeing sales of $0. showing up in the “recently sold homes” section in Ziprealty. What are those transactions? They are outnumbering the actual sales. Other sites are not reporting these sales, I wonder if they are foreclosures being taken back by the banks? They must be some type of bubble pathology.
I’d love to sign up for a service that reports comprehensive sales information but I’m not sure where I can get this.
I notice the same thing on the MD Real Property Search website. http://sdatcert3.resiusa.org/rp_rewrite/
I think they are refi’s.
Thanks, navygator!
I am convinced that Maryland and NoVa will be the last places to fall as the Bubble pops, sadly. Okay, maybe New York City will be the last, but in “Bedlam by the Bay” (Maryland), the insanity continues to rule. Sure, things are selling and the insanity of entry level housing going at 4 to 5 times income is considered normal; the solution is to raise taxes and fight to keep housing prices high. Oh, and avoid selling houses for “below market” lest the buyers foolishly think that housing should be affordable.
This place will be one of the last to be swept away since the denial runs so deep here.
I reported here maybe a year ago about the neighbors stripping out and selling off cabinets, fixtures, etc. before they walked away. Lucky for me a nice older couple has bought the place and is busily installing replacements. They say though that they’re receiving up to 10 calls a day from bill collectors looking for the old residents, who haven’t been seen around here in many months.
Somthing to ponder before you pounce on that cheap foreclosure…
Does the telephone number stay with the house? Or do you think the collectors are tracking them down through the property tax records? Seems to me, do-not-call should apply (but it probably doesn’t).
There are phone directories available that have telephone numbers organized by addresses instead of by the alphabet.
Heh, I got those calls too. Digital answering machines rule!
“Do not call” not valid for debt collection, but, state and federal phone contact rules apply with stricter of the two being applied in each respective state.
Here is a BIG TRICK:
Most auto dialers STOP at 4 rings which is the defualt setting on 90% of the answering machines….so you make your answering machine pick up on the 5th ring….
Here’s a bigger trick…..pay your debts!
The news from the labor market does not bode well for San Diego home prices. I believe that last time, big price declines only came after labor market weakness. This time it appears that big home price declines have preceded serious labor market weakness, and if the labor market continues to weaken, there will be no support going forward to buffet the double-digit rate of home price declines. This perfect storm is intensifying.
County’s jobless rate jumps to 5-year high
Housing, lending losses lead the way
By Mike Freeman and Thomas Kupper
STAFF WRITERS
June 21, 2008
San Diego County’s unemployment rate jumped last month to its highest level in nearly five years at 5.5 percent – signaling continued weakness in the local job market.
Graphic: County Job Growth
As has been the case for months, real estate and lending industries are leading the way in job losses. Technology, tourism and other major sectors are holding their own, but they are not creating enough jobs to counter declines in construction and financial services.
In May 2007, the county’s jobless rate was 4.1 percent.
“We’re 1.4 percentage points higher than we were a year ago, and that’s a concern,” said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego. “That shows how weak the job market is.”
“Realtors are counting on incentives, not slashed prices, to close the deal. ‘Has anyone bought (a home) because of the incentive? Not yet,’ said Mandy Wachtler, president of the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors.”
Mandy, Tennesseein’ is Tennebelievin’. Show us that it is different in Davidson County.
“‘It can definitely sweeten the pot for people,’ said Allen. “We’ll give you a new car, we’ll pay your property taxes for three years, we’ll pay your utilities for four years, we’ll send your kid to Vanderbilt for the first year.’
The main aim of the incentive package is to avoid lowering the asking price. The last thing Allen wants is for home buyers to get the impression that their properties could lose value in the coming year.”
This developer is both shameless and pathetic.
“Katey, you are wanted in the bursar’s office. There seems to be a problem with your tuition payment.”
“Oh, I better call the escrow officer.”
The developer is clueless.
They are creating a “double incidence of wants” problem. Now, you not only have to find a buyer but one who is willing to accept tuition payments to Vanderbilt.
if you just lowered the price, you wouldn’t have the problem.
Why lower the price, when in FB-land debt is considered as good as income?
What baffles me most about such incentives is that it creates a higher base for property tax. There must be a lot of clueless people who don’t know that. Not to mention, at least in the states with which I’m familiar, you aren’t going to be able to register that “free” car without paying sales tax on it. So you get taxed twice for a car that someone else picked out for you. Duuuh.
If there were Federal laws in place which deducted from the recorded sales price any seller “gift” incentives, this comp-inflating scam would end fast.
As things stand today, townships recording these bogus sales prices are aiding and abetting fraud.
Of course they are, it raises the tax base for the home and for other homes in the area.
The whole system of “comps” is wrong, taxes should be based on another number entirely. Like sq/ft or lot size, or something that just cannot be fudged by the same agencies that stand to gain from said “fudging”.
Or, like I have been advocating in FL here for a LONG time, just put a cap on the total govt revenue. That would be the absolute end of all this crap; no matter what you base the taxes on, with the revenue capped, it’s no longer a mad grab for more $$$.
Westside los angeles:
my zip realty search which includes westwood and cheviot hills areas has been slowly increasing from 50 to about 72 over the last year or so. Suddenly on friday it jumped to 87!
Also, my friends in the entertainment industry are terrified about the upcoming SAG strike. They are sure it’s happening and many people around here will be operating on 0 income, very soon after the writer’s strike from which they have not recovered. I am talking about many people here in the same boat.
People are worried about the strike, but most production has already shut down. Since the companies knew this was coming, they did not schedule anything that would not be in the can by the end of June. So many people should already be on or past their last paycheck.
This will hit the actors, production companies and freelance staff, and services such as equipment rental and catering almost immediately.
Post production will shut down before fall is there is a strike, but there will be some work resurrecting old stuff out of the libraries. Especially since the vault at Universal apparently took some serious damage in the recent fire.
We should see some serious carnage in the west side RE market by fall. Ironically, the writers may still be working…
WHAT jumped to 87 - ??
I like the more appropriate reference to sag in the “Team America” movie: FAG (film actors guild)!!!
Pullman, WA (college town in eastern WA)
MLS, Jan to present
Sales transactions down 25%
Sales dollars down 33%
But don’t worry, I’ve been reassured that sales are still the highest on record after 2005-2007. No bubble in Pullman. Hmmm… now where have I heard this before?
update from Chicago NW subs.
This house is currently listed for $380,000 in NW sub of Lake Zurich. MLS #06628756
The place originally sold for $328,000 in Dec 2004. Then within a period of less than 2 years it changed hands for $759,000 in Aug 2006. The only explanation I can think of for more than 100% price jump in less than two years is that the owner(s) rebuilt a brand new house after the purchase in Dec 2004.
But now the house is back on market for $380,000, seems like bank is trying to sell it for that price, in as is condition.
Or someone got a few 100K cash back. Don’t rule that possibility out, I have seen it happen several times; and I haven’t even been looking that hard.
It’s still common practice to get a “cash back incentive” in many new communities in S. FL. Of course, we are also much sleazier then most, but still; I wouldn’t rule it out.
Never thought of that way….
Up to this point the foreclosures in my neighborhood have been on the West Side, which is the proverbial “other side of he tracks” here. Now I am seeing the first signs of the pain spreading to the East Side in both the REO and “pre-foreclosure” listings on this site,
http://www.bankhomesdirect.com
There were a few East Side listings before this, but there are more now. Hard to get an accurate count, but it looks this way to me.
Also, there is a chunk of land on the edge of Costa Mesa that borders Newport Beach and a regional park that is being targeted for development. The plan calls for 1375 homes with open park areas. This is on the bluffs with ocean views, but it has been a working oil field for as long as I have lived here so it will be a mess to clean up. They plan to compact the well area, clean it up, make park area and housing with some commercial space as well. I imagine it will take a while, but nonetheless it will add inventory when it is complete. http://www.newportbanningranch.com/
In Houston, some developers are incentivizing RE agents by offering 5k to the ones who can bring them a qualified buyer to close the deal.
Check out the home prices in Queen Creek. Ouch. Summer of 2005 My buddy paid 196K for a 3/2 1200sf in Johnson Ranch. I don’t mention Real Estate to him anymore.
http://tinyurl.com/6foekt
Check out the first one: HUH?
Year Built: 2004
3 total bedroom(s)
2 total bath(s)
Type: Fixer-upper/handyman special, Single Family-Detached, Builder: Standard Pacific
Built in 2004 and already a “fixer-upper”?! Was it built that poorly and/or did the previous occupants trash the place?
Those prices actually look reasonable. Your friend basically overpaid by 100% or so, but who’s counting?
If I was considering Arizona, I would probably consider buying at those prices.
Why aren’t they selling? Is there simply just WAY TOO MUCH inventory and no one’s in a hurry anymore?
Or are rentals really cheap there?
Wow. They do look reasonable, even not knowing the geography and demographics. AZ is getting a dose of reality Ben J.?
And Mariusz, I LOVE the link embedded in your name!
They’re reasonable, but they’re a good hour commute to any sort of real job, and at least 90 minutes into downtown Phoenix during rush hour. Same for any significant shopping or entertainment—Superstition Springs mall is the closest shopping area, and it’s not all that close. If one worked from home one of those places might be OK, but still the buyer would be surrounded by mostly empty houses with HOAs where nobody is paying any dues.
Me confused… in “New Amerika,” who needs job? House makes more money than job, and housing always goes up!
Hahahaha - sorry, I was channeling 2005 for a moment there! Geez, people thinking about buying a house close to work - what’s next? People not wanting to buy huge Hummers? Amazing!
Report from the outliers:
The long-time real estate lady in our community pulled up a chair at this afternoon’s bash to inform me that “we’re selling properties like crazy right now.”
Interesting, in as much as MLS, Zillow, signage, neighborhood gossip, etc. would indicate that nothing (zero amount of) has sold here since March. (One sale then, $54K, which was 120K less than listing price. And before that, one sale in September 2007.) We’re talking DEAD. Nada. Zip-o-reaneo.
Fairly frothing at the mouth, she informed me that “People are going to do what it takes…” vis a vis gasoline prices. “People,” in this case apparently being real estate ladies whose listings are located in remote, far-from-anywhere places.
It seems that potential buyers are balking/freaking at the distance they need to travel to get to a population center from here– and sales are suffering accordingly.
Those poor Saudis better watch the hmmm-hmmm out; I don’t think she’s kidding. (PIcture a hoard of po’d Realtors unleashed on the Arabian desert…not pretty.)
Ironically, her other business is breeding (absolutely gorgeous,) horses which she sells at exorbitant prices to Saudi collectors.
“…her other business is breeding (absolutely gorgeous,) horses which she sells at exorbitant prices to Saudi collectors.”
The CIA rates Saudi Arabia as: Triple HHH
The fastest growing global Nation of: Horses, Harley’s & Hummers
@ a $135.00 USD per barrel…It’s good to be the King!
But, hey…”they” are working on the “democracy” thing, right Condi?
Population:
28,161,417
note: includes 5,576,076 non-nationals (July 2008 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sa.html
I think the slave labor force estimate is probably a little low, closer to 1/4 the population.
The truth is: who needs to be king, so long as you have a large servant class, working for slave wages, to do all your work while you travel around in luxury?
Wait. It’s starting to sound like America over there, already. Who needs democracy?
but saudis are our “friends” as bush wack describes it…paragon of democracy and human rights. I do hope the bring the bushies in for war crimes and he gets amnesty in only one country-Saudi Arabia.
“The long-time real estate lady in our community pulled up a chair..”
And said: “If a can make just x1 real estate sale to one of my “Saudi Collectors” …I could skew the statistics for the entire county and be set for life!”
“Those poor Saudis better watch the hmmm-hmmm out; I don’t think she’s kidding. (PIcture a hoard of po’d Realtors unleashed on the Arabian desert…not pretty.)”
“Ironically, her other business is breeding (absolutely gorgeous,) horses which she sells at exorbitant prices to Saudi collectors.
The Saudi’s need to lower oil prices so you can sell more houses in outlying areas, but it’s those higher oil prices that allow them to buy horses from you. I guess they’ll have to lower the wages of the slaves to make up the difference if oil prices drop. You can’t be deprived of your housing commissions nor the Saudis their horses.
What the Saudis DON’T have is water. Or food. Eventually, when we develop a reliable source of power beside petro fuels, the balance will tip in favor of the growers.
When you consider the irony of selling American bred Arabian horses to Arabs, it gets kinda wacky. Then think about what a luxury it must be to devote scarce arable land and water to growing grasses to feed them.
Back of the envelope calculations.
Queens, NY. “Starter homes” in decent neighborhood, $450K - $500K.
Mortgage-around $30k/year. Income necessary (even at paying 1/3 income to housing.) - $90K/year. Average income in Queens- $45K.
So people who make almost 6 figures can barely afford a POS starter home.
A regular SFH is still over $600K.
The numbers just don’t add up, yet the prices, though falling a bit, remain insane.
Yeah, prices need to correct at some point, but when and at what speed?
Well then, they shouldn’t buy. This isn’t rocket science.
Markets can stay irrational for a reaaaaaally long time, and if you’re gonna behave like that proverbial kid with the “are we there yet? are we there yet?”, well, what can we say?
This is good. It will be like the TV show “Dallas”, where the entire extended family lived in the big ranch house.
Only this time, it will be “Queens, Revisited”, where all your friends and family squeeze into a small SF unit to split the costs of living.
This is real family values in action.
Troubling signs in Phoenix…. On Saturday I accompanied a friend to who is building a computer to Fry’s Electronics. The parking lot was half full on a Saturday afternoon. The salesperson in the TV department says business is exceptionally slow. There was no line to checkout, something I have never seen before.
Later in the day at Costco, same situation. No wait for a cashier at 3PM. On Saturday night, I took the wife out for dinner for her birthday at her favorite restaurant. I expected an hour wait at 7PM. There was no wait as the restaurant was only 75% full.
Trouble? No lines? No waiting?
I’ve been hoping for such a scenerio for a long time.
Noticed here in Atlanta..no more “families” going out for dinner..went to local restaurant on Saturday night for dinner with my son..only us and one other family in the restaurant…everyone else was couples or small parties of 4..
A Vet that leases a building that I own told me yesterday that things were just “okay”…
I do Costco on weekends.. haven’t seen a waiting line of more than 1 or 2 carts in many moons..
Last time they’d closed about 6 checkouts on one end (where the tobacco cage is) and i waited several minutes for someone to come over and push the door button and let me in.
asked the ticket checker on the way out (again no line). Seems kinda slow lately.. how’s business? Big smile. “Business is great!”
You do Costco?!?
Can we watch? Does it respond back? Is it on xtube yet?
You want video? Sure, that can be arranged. Have your people talk to my people and we’ll do lunch.
About a six months ago a broker told me how he though this would all play out.. said most large businesses would survive and most small ones would go belly up. Sometime afterwards, the general economy will finally turn upwards.
That’s when a bunch of small startups / entreprenures will be drawn in to fill the vacuum of failed businesses and services… and that’s where the real growth investment opportunity lies.
Some of those new businesses will practically own their markets and will get really big, really fast.
I’m waiting for the price of hotel rooms to drop. That has to be one of the most incredible scams going…………..
Motel prices are cheap. Days Inn (Quality, etc) better watch out. Cheaper chains like America’s Best Value have nice, large rooms, nice beds, Haier minifridges & microwaves, satellite TV with 80+ channels, and even a little bit of breakfast.
It’s nothing like the old nightmare Motel 6’s and byway serial murderer haunting ground motels I remember from my childhood with the old stench of tobacco in the “non” smoking rooms, the depressing decor and athlete’s foot fungus in the rug, the scary little bathroom and scary giant noisy A/C unit, and that pot of icky weak coffee in the lobby in the morning.
Basically the Indian/Pakistani run disco motels offer all the added value that the Comfort/Quality line used to boast of, except for the pool, and seriously, who cares? Not worth the extra money when we’re on the road anyway.
Btw, Vegas hotel rooms used to be all but free. Now they are charging money because they aren’t making so much bank in the casinos. Death spiral for Vegas because why conference there when airfare and rooms are no longer dirt cheap?
with the old stench of tobacco in the “non” smoking rooms, the depressing decor and athlete’s foot fungus in the rug, the scary little bathroom and scary giant noisy A/C unit, and that pot of icky weak coffee in the lobby in the morning. Hey, I stayed at that place in 1977, somewhere along US 66 in N. AZ! Cost me $7 for the night.
“Basically the Indian/Pakistani run disco motels offer all the added value…”
I stayed in one that had bedbugs. Super 8 in Dubois, Wyoming. Beware.
And they wouldn’t refund my money - Ieft after one hour and went and camped out. Scumbags. And apparently it’s a common problem, even in some of the better chains.
Anthem Prices Backing Down to 2002 Prices
I bought in 2003 and I can tell you that the repossessed home prices are bringing the cost of homes down to around the 2002 prices. Since banks and mortgage companies have just begun to lower their listing prices, I suspect the values are going even lower and the only question is how far and how fast. Look Out Below!!!
I follow the Atlanta and South Florida Market..
Observations in both:
Atlanta: word from many realtors is that people are moving out of atlanta due to job issues related to housing, construction and consolidation…the relocation boom has seized up..spoken to realtors who averaged 8-10 million in sales who are forecasting to have a year of around 2 million..many realtor offices are consolidating as sales from year to year are down almost 50%. In regards to foreclosures, there are still alot, but the bargaining on them with the lender is limited. Most are selling for 10-15% less than what the bank is asking. Banks/lenders here are pricing them to sell…Homes that are seeing the greatest price reductions are the $900K plus homes..many of those communities are seeing reductions of hundreds of thousands of dollars/foreclosures..Robert Harris a local builder in the area for 20 years is closing shop…builders are giving houses back to the bank that are not even completed yet in the high end communities..
South Florida - lots of foreclosures and short sales priced at 50-70% from peakand still not selling…even homebuyers who bought before the boom are not making good “profits” even without HELCO..construction in the condo market continues but at a slower pace..many HOA’s are raising fees by alot for both Single Family Homes and Condos..Refi market is RIP..no equity no refi..no stated income anymore no refi..unemployment continues to increase by alot…out of 5 friends we know…all five have experienced job loss or potiental for it and have had to sell their home or are in the process of inching towards foreclosure…only 2 went the HELCO route….many cities/utilities are raising prices for all services to cover loss in real estate related revenue
Nice info Ann…
More on Atlanta:
Unemployment is now at a 15 year high ( 5.8%).
76 Georgia banks are on the FDIC watch list. As of the end of the 1st quarter 2008, non-permforming assets at Metro Atlanta community banks were skyrocketing. Suprisingly, banks in high income areas are getting hit the hardest, with an average increase in non-perofrming asstes for the 1st quarter of 92% on the outer suburban north side areas like Roswell & Alpharetta, and 123% for closer-in northside areas. The median increase for the entire state in 1st quarter non-perfoming assets was 24%.
There are also 15 metro area community banks, most of which are in affluent areas, that have non-performing assets that are MORE THAN 100% of tangible equity. The majority of these banks have 50% or greater concentrations in CRE loans.
“May’s results lay to rest the ‘myth’ that Nevada feels economic torpor less, and for shorter periods, than the rest of the country, said Jered McDonald, an economist with the employment department.”
“But Brian Gordon, a principal in (an) economic-research firm, said it’s tough to draw broader conclusions from the current downturn because it comes from a unique coalescence of factors, including a bust in record housing prices and a cyclical dip in resort openings.”
Great find. Las Vegas is now the poster child of the downturn out west. Its become the example of flipping. Multiple coworkers relocated from Lost Wages but refuse to “give their homes away.” They’re working to better their retirements (which will now be in Las Vegas). Ironically, all of them are renting golf course townhomes from failed flippers (at subsidized rates)!
They’re living horrible lifestyles. Their families are still in Vegas (or New Mexico, Florida, DC, and a few other locations). They’re out here in California any overtime they can qualify for. We have no shortage of talent volunteering for holiday weekends. I’m being mandated to work the 4th of July weekend (due to my skill set being needed). Ironically, they’re stressed as they’ll have to pay premium air fare (if Florida or DC) or drive back to Las Vegas for that weekend (its only a small team needed over the 4th). I find it ironic as its their persuit of overtime over the last 18 months that created a situation where half do not have the training to qualify for the overtime of the next six months…
I’m betting in late July those training classes will be full.
Note: Most of these are really productive workers, so I take no glee from their financial pain. I’m just standing back wondering “why did you need so much home (or so many homes)? Is it worth it?”
I think we know the answer.
Oh, the Californian’s shouldn’t get too smug. I know of three aerospace companies moving people out of state. Somehow we moved 2,200 from LA to Houston without a single press article and 500 from DC to Houston or Huntsville (I’m not 100% sure of the split). Not one peep from the press. And two of our competitors are doing the big moves… They try to move people in blocks of 1,500 or less. That seems to be below the MSM attention threshold. So do not expect any big anouncement. No big press release is going to happen; the companies learned their lessons in the 1990’s. Its stay under the radar time now. Since the moves are purely voluntary (and two of the three companies I know are doing no layoffs)… it will just keep happening until there is no demand to move out of the bubble markets.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
“Somehow we moved 2,200 from LA to Houston without a single press article and 500 from DC to Houston or Huntsville (I’m not 100% sure of the split). Not one peep from the press. And two of our competitors are doing the big moves… They try to move people in blocks of 1,500 or less. That seems to be below the MSM attention threshold. So do not expect any big anouncement. No big press release is going to happen; the companies learned their lessons in the 1990’s. Its stay under the radar time now.”
I worked for a media agency back in the 90’s bust. Companies leaving CA in droves because of the costs were all over the news back then, unlike now. I can think of several accounts which tracked any news of a business moving out of state with more than a certain number of jobs heading elsewhere. I’m a little surprised that there isn’t much being said in the media about it this time around. But, as you say, maybe these groups learned their lessons from 15 years ago?
“I worked for a media agency back in the 90’s bust. Companies leaving CA in droves because of the costs were all over the news back then, unlike now.”
But if I read Neil’s comments correctly, the moves this time are being driven more by employees seeking lower cost areas to live, not as much by businesses seeking lower cost areas to operate.
In the 80’s and 90’s, businesses would shut down or move and it was up to the employees to move or not depending on whether or not an offer was extended.
Dang it, where’s Hoz when you need him?
“You’re Fired” …John Jonah Jameson …publisher of the Daily Bugle
It is amazing the number of “For Sale”, “For Lease” and “Space Available” sign in front of, along side of, and on top of, commercial property here in Mesa, AZ. Quite a bit of empty units at the strip malls. The businesses hit hard include the auto and truck dealers and resellers, the RV and motorhome places, and of course, the construction trades and suppliers. There is always a seasonal slowdown here in the hot summers after winter visitors - “snowbirds” - leave. This year is is just much worse.
On Friday a man who had a auto transmission and engine repair business for 20 years, who we knew socially, committed suicide. He had several employees, several kids in college, several HELOCS, and a lot of strain in the marriage recently over “finances”.
I am located in a subdivision of 254 homes. 3 in the last year have been foreclosure sales. The community was built out mostly from 1998 to 2001, so many still have equity.
Of course in many other newer homes around here, the owners simply don’t have any equity. It cannot turn out well in Mesa, 3rd largest city in AZ, for the foreseeable future.
Sorry to hear about the social friend, Mormon_Tea. Permanent solution to a temporary problem. Very sad.
http://www.ajc.com/homefinder/content/homefinder/stories/2008/06/19/development_0622.html
This is the development I have talking about..funny how they had to get themselves into the paper when many of the so called “exclusive” communities pride themselves in NOT having to advertise..
What the local paper fails to to you is this buyer has purchased a home in a community that
1)Had trouble finding FUNDING for the clubhouse to be built..
2)Is loaded with builders who have liens on homes from contractors
3)Foreclosures in the community are on homes that have not even been finished built yet and more foreclosures to come
4)And that builders are lowering the prices every week..screwing the underwater crowd that was stupid enough to buy into the joneses mentality…
5)Based on tax records that I pulled..this guy BUILT THE HOUSE that he got stuck moving into…another doomed speculator/builder
The guy they interviewed is also an executive at a local community bank (see my comment in Ann’s post a few sections above). Care to wager on how long he will be living there ?
What is up with these people? One child and a small dog in a 6800sq/ft house 5 bedrooms 5 1/2 baths? Is this guys d#ck that small? We are 5 in 2200 square with one car garage. I am not saying we are beter han anyone else but why not bank the money and travel? Or work less hours? Or whatever? I don’t get it.
Because he needs room to store all the crud that he bought with money he doesn’t have to impress people he doesn’t like. It’s the Amerikan way!