The Housing Bubble

The San Francisco Chronicle reports form California. “California’s unemployment rate rocketed up by 0.6 percentage points in May - the largest one-month increase since the state began keeping records in 1976. Most of the job market’s distress has stemmed directly from the housing crash. Construction and finance, which includes mortgage, real estate and title companies, together lost 123,000 jobs over the past 12 months.”

“Berkeley resident Phil Catalfo has been looking for work as an editor for almost a year…but gotten few responses. When Catalfo was looking for work three years ago, he was swamped with freelance jobs. This time, assignments are trickling in slowly.”

“‘The air is definitely different,’ he said.”

The Bay Area Newsgroup. “The East Bay has lost nearly 12,000 jobs so far in 2008 - including thousands more last month. But during the past 12 months, the East Bay accounted for two out of every three jobs lost in the Golden State.”

“The collapse of the housing market has convinced Stephanie Hamett, an Oakley resident, to abandon her career in the mortgage industry. She worked in the mortgage sector for four years.”

“Hamett is skeptical that housing will rebound any time soon. ‘This is worse than we all thought it would be and it’s probably going to deteriorate even more,’ Hamett said of the housing market. ‘It’s a bigger mess than people imagine.’”

The Ventura County Star. “Ventura County’s job market continued to see signs of softening last month, with particularly weak showings in manufacturing and construction. Last month…the number of out-of-work people jumped 1,800, a result of recent graduations and more people entering the labor force.”

“‘That’s interesting, because normally, people don’t enter the labor force when jobs are going down,’ said Bill Watkins, executive director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast.”

“One possible explanation is that with inflation and gas prices rising, people are returning to work, Watkins said.”

“In Ventura County, construction was flat in comparison to April, but down year over year by 2,200 - the biggest annual loss among all sectors.”

“‘The bottom line is the industry is in the worst shape it’s been in for decades,’ said John Frith, VP of public affairs for the California Building Industry Association. ‘The market has completely evaporated for new housing in most parts of the state.’”

“Camarillo contractor Mark Varnum prefers the more competitive market. Customers have more selection and can make smarter choices, and it ‘weeds out the idiots in this business.’”

“‘When it’s booming, everyone’s a contractor,’ he said.”

The Press Enterprise. “Job loss continued to plague the Inland region in May, the fifth month in a row in which there were thousands fewer jobs than last year, and it was the worst monthly decline on record for the Inland region.”

“‘I’ve studied this economy since 1964 … never, in 44 years, have we had a year where we averaged a net loss,’ said Inland economist John Husing. ‘That is unprecedented. That has never happened before.’”

The San Gabriel Valley News. “Los Angeles County’s unemployment rate jumped nearly a point to 6.7 percent in May, its highest level in nearly 4 years, according to the state Employment Development Department.”

“The last time the region’s unemployment rate was so high was in January 2004, when it hit 6.9 percent. ‘It’s a discouraging report,’ said Jack Kyser, senior vice president and chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. ‘It’s a little bit surprising how rapidly things went south.’”

The Union Tribune. “San Diego County’s unemployment rate jumped last month to its highest level in nearly five years. As has been the case for months, real estate and lending industries are leading the way in job losses.”

“‘We’re 1.4 percentage points higher than we were a year ago, and that’s a concern,’ said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego. ‘That shows how weak the job market is.’”

“May’s jobless numbers appear to derail hopes of a summer rebound in employment. May’s numbers reflect a loss of 3,200 jobs over the past year. That is the largest annual job loss the state Employment Development Department has reported for the county since the prolonged local recession in the 1990s, when the region shed thousands of aerospace jobs.”

“‘This is pretty stark, said Murtaza Baxamusa, director of research and policy at a private research group based in San Diego. It likely debunks the notion that the local economy is so diverse that it’s recession-proof, he said.”

The Brentwood Press. “The fastest-growing community in one of the fastest-growing regions in the country, Brentwood’s meteoric growth in recent years has been surpassed only by the speed with which the boom vanished, leaving in its wake unfinished subdivisions and neighborhoods peppered with foreclosure signs.”

“After posting steady gains during the 1990s, housing prices caught fire after the turn of the century, climbing from the mid-$300,000s for a median-priced dwelling in 2002 to almost $650,000 by mid-2006.”

“Creative financing and permissive lending practices helped fuel the climb - with disastrous consequences, said Brentwood broker Brian Sharp.”

“‘Getting someone who makes $45K a year into a $600K mortgage through neg-am, teaser-rate loans, using stated income on their application, is trying to use high-finance concepts on someone that just shouldn’t be in that vehicle when the market turns south and they don’t have the ability to make the fully amortized payments, or the deep pockets to wait out the market,’ he said.”

“‘When the market was going up 20 to 30 percent a year, (lenders) looked like heroes. When the appreciation leveled off, then tanked, then the ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages) adjusted, they looked like criminals,’ he said.”

“According to MLS data provided by Sharp, by the beginning of this year, a median-priced house in Brentwood had lost more than 40 percent of its value, returning to the mid-$300,000 range of 2002.”

From KSBY 6. “A report from DataQuick Thursday said the median home value for Santa Barbara County has dropped 40 percent year to year. It went from $601,000 in May of 2007 to $360,000 for May of this year.”

“The drop is due mostly to foreclosures and depreciation around Santa Maria, which now represents a larger share of total sales.”

“‘You do have to accept the fact that you’re going to be getting a little less than you’d hoped for,’ said Martha Beckman, president of the Santa Maria Association of Realtors.”

The LA Downtown News. “Although some might raise their eyebrows as the national housing market crisis continues, a group of prominent area developers last week painted a rosy picture of the Downtown residential scene.”

“Still, some do believe the sky is falling, and for that panel moderator Tom Gilmore and others partly blamed the media. Gilmore took the opportunity to chastise the press for reporting on problems and delays with the Grand Avenue plan, which he called a misunderstood project.”

“‘What’s up with you guys?’ he asked some members of the press.”

“Bill Witte of Related of California, whose Grand Avenue project has been repeatedly delayed and is now not scheduled to arrive, at the earliest, until 2012, said Downtown needs to be viewed in the context of other areas, not just across the country, but even in Southern California. He read off a list of high-rise projects in areas such as Marina Del Rey, West L.A. and Orange County that have been halted.”

“‘I have a whole lot of friends on suicide watch in Orange County,’ he joked, saying the area is filled with ‘corpses of projects.’”

The Voice of San Diego. “In February, a homebuyer paid $591,000 for No. 602, a bank-owned unit in the Parkloft development near Petco Park. Two years ago, the buyer of the same unit paid $1.1 million. That meant at least a $509,000 loss for the lender.”

“But the 46 percent price plunge in two years represents more than the effect of a despondent housing market, prosecutors say. The unit was never worth $1.1 million and buyer Gloria Agundez never earned the $301,000 salary to make the mortgage payments on that sum, officials said.”

“And the employer listed on Agundez’s application for a mortgage, U.S. Mergers, never existed, officials said. Agundez said she never bought it, either. She told the FBI that her identity was stolen and her signature forged to purchase the property in the first place, according to court documents.”

“Agundez’s unit counts among 21 properties considered by investigators at the IRS and the FBI to be purchased fraudulently, part of an alleged mortgage fraud ring announced Thursday.”

“The court documents in this case offer insight into some of the machinations by which San Diego’s housing market reached a dizzying peak earlier this decade and has since spiraled into a freefall.”

“As mortgages for 18 of the 21 properties analyzed by the FBI have already ended in foreclosure, the properties involved have sold at bottom-scraping prices, often drastically undercutting the values for the whole neighborhood or condo building.”

“Though many in the real estate community have known such deals were happening for years, these are the first charges brought in cash back at closing transactions.”

“‘This is exactly what I’ve been screaming about for the last 18 months,’ said Todd Lackner, a Mission Valley real estate appraiser and mortgage fraud expert. ‘I’m elated to hear law enforcement’s going after these crooks. Certainly this isn’t the only one.’”