The Housing Bubble

A report from the Arizona Republic. “Thirty percent of all homes on the market in Anthem are being sold by banks, not homeowners. And the end may not be in sight. One Anthem homeowner who got caught up in the market frenzy of a few years ago is Tom Zotovich. ‘I was under the assumption that the real estate market would still go up for a while or at least maintain itself,’ Zotovich said.”

“Two years ago, after a divorce, he bought his ex-wife’s share of their home and decided to refinance at the worst possible time. Home prices soon spiraled downward, and Zotovich’s mortgage became more than he could bear. Although he regrets not selling his house at the time of his divorce, when the market had peaked, he does not blame his lender or even himself.”

“‘It was nobody’s fault,’ Zotovich said. ‘It’s just the way the market worked out.’”

“The impact of foreclosures and short sales in Anthem is even being felt in the state Capitol. State Rep. Doug Clark announced earlier this year that he would not be running for re-election in November because of the housing woes.”

“Clark, who has worked in real estate in Anthem for eight years, has been unable to sufficiently supplement his modest legislative paycheck. In the short term, he foresees at least two more years of struggling housing market in Anthem.”

“‘I would definitely return to the state House of Representatives if real estate were better,’ Clark said.”

“The housing market continues to search for a bottom as foreclosures continue to climb across metropolitan Phoenix. In May, 3,402 homes across Maricopa County went into foreclosure, according to the Information Market. Almost all of those homes went back to the lenders. May’s foreclosure figure is up from the 2,969 foreclosures, or trustee deed sales, filed in April.”

“Don’t expect foreclosures to slow this month either. The number of pre-foreclosures, or notice of trustee sales, filed also climbed in May. Last month, there were 6,384 pre-foreclosures filed in Maricopa County, compared with 6,143 in April.”

“New and existing Valley home sales ticked up in May, according to analyst RL Brown’s Phoenix Housing Market Letter. Building permits were up slightly.”

“There were a total of 7,202 new and existing home sales in May, compared with 6,636 in April. Home-building permits totaled 1,552 in May, up from 1,473 in April.”

“The median price of a new Valley home has dropped to $218,861, down from $267,934 a year ago. That’s an 18 percent drop, but Brown said it improves the market’s affordability, which will draw more buyers.”

The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “A few builders are bucking the trend and starting work on new master-planned communities with thousands of homes - betting the right price and location will entice buyers. Tempe-based Fulton Homes opened sales for its latest project - a 2,100-home master-planned community near Queen Creek.”

“‘Houses are selling if they’re priced right, if they’re in good shape and in a good area,’ said Dennis Webb, Fulton’s VP of operations.”

“When Fulton began planning out the project three years ago, prices were originally set from the mid-$200,000s up to $450,000. Now, houses start at just less than $150,000 for starter homes and reach up to $300,000 for a more-than-4,000-square-foot house.”

“The company was able to cut prices by redesigning the houses, Webb said. Laminate countertops became standard instead of granite. And 10-foot ceilings were lowered to 9 feet.”

“Fulton isn’t the only builder moving forward on projects. Blandford Homes recently started work on a 1,200-home development, called Mountain Bridge in northeast Mesa.”

“‘Just because the market is down doesn’t necessarily mean it wouldn’t be a good time to enter the market,’ said Ben Sage, head of Houston-based Metrostudy’s Arizona division.”

“Some builders want to be prepared for the market’s return. Others have poured so much money into projects, it’s not that much more expensive to build some model homes, Sage said.”

The Kingman Daily Miner from Arizona. “Sharon Givans, the 2009 president-elect of the Kingman/Golden Valley Association of Realtors, said that while it’s hard to say whether or not the local market has bottomed out for certain, signs seem to be pointing to an uptick over last year’s sales figures.”

“Looking solely at single-family residences, Givans said 35 homes were sold in January and only 27 in February. Then, for the first time in two years, the market finally began outpacing the previous year’s figures. Givans said the primary reason more homes are being sold is because prices are finally dropping to levels buyers find reasonable.”

‘Houses within the $140-160,000 range have been selling the best thus far this year, with the median price for June hovering around $157,000. She did not, however, go so far as to say the market has hit bottom just yet. ‘What’s really happening in the market is prices are trending down,’ Givans said.”

“Kingman Realtor Todd Tarson conducts his own analyses of the housing numbers each month. He takes his sample data from a smaller area encompassing Kingman proper, north Kingman, the Hualapai Mountain area and the Valle Vista area.”

“Tarson is also optimistic about the market, but much more guardedly so than Givans. While his numbers agree that sales since March have been edging out 2007’s, Tarson noted the first two months of the year were the worst he’s seen since he started tracking data in 2004.”

“‘In 2006, clearly you can see activity falling off a cliff, and then in 2007, none of the figures beat 2006,’ Tarson said. ‘I predict 2007 won’t be hard to beat this year, but the first two months of this year were historic lows. They were the lowest numbers I ever posted.’”

“Tarson also pointed out that, while home sales are higher than they were a year ago, they still have yet to come anywhere near earlier levels. The 52 homes sold in his coverage area for 2008 only barely edged out last year’s figure of 51.”

“‘In 2005, in April, we sold a little over 90 homes,’ he said. ‘92 in 2005, 52 in 2008.’”

“Tarson also expressed concern that, even though there are plenty of homes for sale at increasingly reasonable prices, the demand for those houses could be best generated if people saw Kingman as a place worth moving to. As long as the local economy continues to stagnate, he said, that wasn’t likely to happen.”

“‘We have a surplus of homes for sale,’ he said. ‘There’s too many of us trying to sell to too small of a population of buyers at this time.’”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “Clark County has determined that the Meridian Luxury Suites on Flamingo Road, just east of the Strip, is illegally renting condominium units for overnight use. The Meridian is in the process of converting its upscale condominium units from owner occupancy and long-term rentals only, to resort condo use as well.”

“The upscale property’s practice also has caused friction with resident owners — who bought without the expectation that their neighbors might change nightly.”

“Kathleen Mannix, who owns the Meridian unit in which she lives, believes the property has been doing overnight rentals since at least May 2007, when she moved in. She said no one informed her at the time of her purchase about the short-term rentals.”

“‘I could tell. People were coming with suitcases,’ she recalled.”

“When challenged to prove that the visitors were paying by the night, she did Internet research that turned up guest reviews of the Meridian accommodations, dating back to early 2007.”

“At a Monday meeting of the Meridian Private Residences Homeowners Association, assoc. president Michael Mackenzie gave no indication that the hotel operations had ceased. In fact he discussed short-term rentals available that day, according to a tape recording given to the newspaper.”

“The hotel operation involves 420 of the of the property’s 678 condo units, Mackenzie told his audience. But only about half of the 420 are being rented. He cited the sagging economy as the reason that more units are not being rented out in the hotel operation.”

“Several Meridian guests, who were sunning poolside on May 18, told a reporter they had paid for short stays.”

“Melbourne, Fla., resident Kirk Wayne, marveled at the low room price his wife booked online for a spacious suite for him at the off-Strip location.”

“‘She said, ‘Cancel (the Venetian reservations),’ Wayne recalled. He said he was paying $119 a night during the week and $169 on the weekend. ‘The cheapest room at the Venetian was $400,’ Wayne added.”

“Another guest, Ian Schmidt, described the Meridian as ‘the cheapest hotel I ever stayed at.’ He reported paying only $800 for a five-day stay for his party of six from the Midwest.”

“‘I didn’t realize until 10 seconds ago that people actually live here,’ Schmidt said.”

“Donald Trump’s $1.2 billion Trump International Hotel & Tower and carry prices between $700,000 and $5 million. Trump, the opinionated billionaire developer, crowed over how quickly units were being sold at his noncasino Las Vegas venture.”

“Before the building was topped off a year ago, Trump said all the units had been reserved. Buyers plunked down 20 percent nonrefundable deposits for the 64-story tower’s studios, one-bedrooms and penthouses.”

“This week, Trump continued to paint a positive picture despite having closed sales on only roughly 20 percent of the building. Banks, he said, are not as quick these days to loan money for high-rise condo purchases.”

“‘Some of my buyers are richer than the banks,’ Trump said from his New York offices. ‘We’re working with people and I think we’re doing pretty well. Listen, we only started closings a short time ago. It’s a much more complicated process today.’”

“The major issue facing Trump is that a unit can’t be placed into the hotel’s reservation system until it is sold. Trump bookings start at $349 per night, some of the highest rates on the Strip.”

“‘This is a wonderful property,’ Trump said of the tower, which is wrapped in 24-karat gold glass and has a lobby decorated with ornate chandeliers, gold-accented features and Italian marble.”

“‘People love the building. I love the building,’ he added. ‘Everyone, including Las Vegas, is going through a tough time, however. We’ll be fine.’”

“A state panel on Friday offered the most pessimistic tax revenue projection to date, prompting Gov. Jim Gibbons to delay a special legislative session to allow more time to grapple with a quarter billion dollars in new budget cuts.”

“The new shortfall figure is $250 million…on top of $913 million in cuts already made to the current 2007-2009 two-year budget, bringing the total to nearly $1.2 billion.”

“Gibbons said the size of the new shortfall, combined with an announcement Friday of a dramatic jump in the unemployment rate to a level not seen since 1994, made it prudent to give lawmakers more time to consider how to balance the budget.”

“‘Today’s revelation that unemployment in Nevada has reached levels not seen even in the months following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 reinforces the need for this special session of the Legislature to cope with our budget crisis,’ he said.”

“‘The trucking industry, the one that I represent, we’ve seen a decrease in the number of trucks registered in the state of Nevada since the first of the year, by almost 12 percent,’ said Paul Enos of the Nevada Motor Transport Association. ‘I think everybody’s hurting. It’s painful for everybody right now.’”

The Nevada Appeal. “‘There is no expectation the market is going to improve at this time,’ said Cathy Santoro, a VP with MGM-Mirage in Las Vegas.”

“She said hard economic times are reducing the number of people going to shows and the amount they are willing to pay for tickets, which can range up to $200 or more for premium concerts.”

“Santoro said MGM-Mirage is seeing a drop in food services, a large category for sales tax revenues. And she pointed out there has been a big drop in auto sales as well. And all agreed housing sales are in the tank right now.”

“Mike Alastuey, named to the panel by Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, questioned whether housing sales and construction might be starting to stabilize. But no one else on the panel was willing to bet on that.”

“In fact, the worst drop in any revenue category was to the Real Property Transfer Tax. The forum members Friday predicted that revenue source will fall 51 percent below the 2007 projections to just $119.6 million for the biennium.”

From Fox 5 News in Nevada. “Nevada’s jobless rate of 6.2 percent is its highest mark in more than 20 years. Sen. Harry Reid released the following statement Friday regarding the increase of more than half a percent in unemployment in Nevada from April to May 2008.”

“‘This is terrible news for the people of Nevada and our state’s economy. There was once a time when people thought Nevada was immune to national economic downturns, but this time, it’s different. Our nationwide struggle appears even more acute in Nevada because of the struggling housing market and rising costs of fuel and energy. Unfortunately, this leads to job loss in many important industries.’”

“‘We must support our Nevada economy with energy reform to strengthen tourism and strong housing legislation to stabilize and kick-start Nevada’s housing industry that supplies so many jobs in good times.’”