The Housing Bubble

The Post Dispatch reports from Missouri. “All real estate is local, or so goes the saying. But the St. Louis region can’t seem to avoid the troubles of a weak national house-building market and buyer indifference. House building locally has slowed to levels not seen in almost a decade. With so much inventory on the market and with prices lower than they have been in years, it should be a natural buying opportunity, said Patrick Sullivan, executive VP of the Home Builders Association of St. Louis and Eastern Missouri.”

“Yet prospective buyers continue to sit on the sidelines. As a result, builders and other companies tied to the housing industry are cutting back staff and reducing overhead. ‘This is an unusually challenging time for builders,’ Sullivan said. ‘They have got to rid of dead wood and get much smarter to survive.’”

The Suburban Journals from Missouri. “Applying for her first mortgage was daunting for Warrenton resident Sarah Reed. ‘It was rough,’ she said. ‘I didn’t realize how much it entailed.’”

“After renting for several years, Reed and her long-time boyfriend Justin Berg moved Saturday into their first home. The couple found their dream home in Andorra Estates, just north of where Reed works at Waffle House on Highway 47. They paid in the low $100,000s for the two-story, four-bedroom and two-bath home. It had been repossessed by the bank.”

“While Reed said she knows it’s a big jump from renting to buying, she couldn’t be more excited. ‘I’m really proud of myself,’ she said. ‘Here I am, 24 years old, working at the same job for the past nine years with two boys and now I’m a homeowner.’”

The Riverside Brookfield Landmark from Illinois. “With sales at two townhome sites in Brookfield slow to materialize, the developer of a proposed 21-unit townhome project near the Congress Park train station won’t break ground until at least 2009.”

“Michael Beckerman, who has owned the former Brookfield Moose property since January 2006, said last week that until the glut of townhome units in Brookfield dissipates, he’ll bide his time on construction.”

“‘There are two townhome projects with 34 units that are basically all available,’ Beckerman said. ‘From an inventory perspective, that’s a lot.’”

“David Hrizak, the principal owner of the Courtyards of Brookfield development, blamed media coverage of the slow housing market as scaring away buyers.”

“‘We’re in a holding pattern until the people in the media tell the buyers to start shopping,’ he said.”

The Herald Spectator from Illinois. “In 2005, Niles saw just 24 foreclosures. But there were 87 foreclosures in 2007 — a 128-percent increase. ‘There are more foreclosures now than I’ve ever seen,’ said Bill Alston, a Niles real-estate agent. ‘It scares people.’”

“The average sales price of a Niles home fell to $330,000 in 2008, down from $400,000 in 2005.”

“The volume of homes sales has also taken a dive. In 2005, 199 homes were sold. In 2007 there were only 116 closings, and 2008 is shaping up to be no better, with just 21 homes sold thus far.”

“‘It’s causing a great deal of anxiety in this community,’ said Marty Friedman, director of Niles Human and Family Services. ‘People were sold a bill of goods by mortgage companies. These are not people who were educated in housing. But they worked and they had families and they were just trying to fulfill the American dream of owning a house.’”

“Alston said builders making ‘McMansions’ were taking a bath because they were building fancy homes that were out of step with the surrounding neighborhoods’ demographics.”

“‘A lot of builders who built these McMansions are stuck,’ he said. ‘Who wants to buy a $800,000 home in a $400,000 neighborhood? You want to live in an $800,000 neighborhood.’”

“Alston, who has been selling real estate for 37 years, said the housing bubble was the result of unreasonable expectations. ‘Real estate is a long-term investment,’ he said. ‘Part of the problem is that people were speculating. The term ‘flipping’ wasn’t even invented until 2000. Now, they lost their lunch.’”

The Lincolnwood Review from Illinois. “In the almost six years she has been with the Lincolnwood Police Department, housing foreclosures haven’t figured in her conversations with clients, social worker Geri Silic says. At least up until now.”

“‘In six years, I have not had any people come to me with housing problems,’ she said. ‘In the last four months, a number of families have come in with big problems and foreclosure is part of that.’”

“The number of single family homes sold in the village decreased three years running. In 2005, 128 changed hands; in 2006, 91 were sold, and in 2007 only 68 were sold. This year, only 17 had sold as of May 1.”

“The drop comes despite evidence that owners were willing to lower their prices in order to quickly offload properties. Association figures show that the median price for a single family home in Lincolnwood rose only from $512,500 in 2005 to $514,500 in 2007, then dropped precipitously.”

“As of May 1 of this year, the median price of a single family home in Lincolnwood was $410,000.”

“Jim Berger, executive VP at the Bank of Lincolnwood, said, ‘Most of what I see in Lincolnwood is that the people who had been speculating — buying homes, probably borrowing substantially in hopes of making the big bucks on the flip — are caught.’”

The Skokie Review from Illinois. “The story is familiar: Skokie has been aggressive in recent years in expanding its condominium market. It has big development plans for downtown, which include creating luxury homes.”

“The problem on a local level can be seen in the numbers. In 2006, Skokie had 90 foreclosures compared to 173 in 2007. The median price for homes has dropped considerably as well — $400,000 in 2006, $375,000 in 2007 and $332,500 for the first four months of this year.”

“Terry Oline, Skokie Property Standards Supervisor, has seen the impact of an increasing number of foreclosures first-hand. Last month, 140 homes (not including condominiums) in Skokie were in foreclosure or in the process of heading there, Oline said. When condominiums are factored in, the number is closer to 180.”

“How does that compare to previous years? ‘It’s unheard of,” Oline said. ‘It’s a huge increase.’”

“Oline has worked for the village since 1995. ‘It’s safe to say I’ve never seen anything like this before.’”

The Oakland Business Review from Michigan. “Even Oakland County’s luxury home market faces a chilling effect from the general market freeze, as potential buyers can’t sell their current houses for the price they want. Conventional wisdom suggests the $500,000-and-up markets should be insulated from lower-end troubles, but such home sales fell off in the last two years.”

“Fewer people in Oakland County are ‘buying up,’ said Dennis Wolf, president of a niche real estate brokerage managing high-end listings. ‘The thing that’s most troubling to me is, you have buyers who don’t want to buy. There are a lot who would and can’t because they can’t get credit, but there are a lot who think prices haven’t bottomed out,’ he said.”

“‘It affects the high-end market in that they have a bottom house to sell. If they have to give on price too much, they won’t put their house in the market and make that move,’ Wolf explained.

“There were 13 non-foreclosure houses sold in Oakland County this year in the $1 million-$2 million price range, and one that was in foreclosure…according to Farmington Hills-based Realcomp II Ltd.”

“In the $400,000-$1 million range, there were 41 foreclosures sold so far this year and 260 non-foreclosure houses sold in Oakland County.”

“‘If you have a three- to five-year supply of homes, you may have 50 or 60 competing with yours and only seven a year are selling,’ said Kelly Sweeney, CEO of Birmingham-based Weir Manuel Realtors.”

“The supply of houses in the $500,000-plus price range is as high as 60 months, reported Dan Elsea, president of Real Estate One. The supply of high-end homes was relatively high even when the economy was robust, he added. ‘That was because of builders, who prefer to build the upper end over the lower end,’ he said.”

The Journal Sentinel from Wisconsin. “After more than seven years and $937,159 in federal funds, the West Pointe mixed-use project is still not completed and needs more public money, a Common Council committee was told Monday.”

“Ald. Robert Bauman, who represents the area, said West End claims it needs about $350,000 to complete the ground-floor retail space and 14 condominium units. ‘Foreclosure isn’t necessarily the worst-case scenario,’ he said. ‘They may not be able to sell condos.’”

“Leo Ries, director of the Local Initiatives Support Corp.’s Milwaukee office, a private nonprofit that provides support for neighborhood development projects, said his agency initially invested $270,000 in West Pointe and is willing to pay for an outside project manager to assess the project and to look for a for-profit developer to take ownership, he said.”

“‘I argue that foreclosure would be the worst-case scenario because it wipes out the city’s lien rights, and the city would have to repay the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,’ he said. ‘The party at the greatest risk here is the city.’”

The Pioneer Press from Minnesota. “Oh, woe and doom! The dreary truth presses dark upon the homeowner, cast about on a sea of uncertainty. (Oops. Sorry. I’ve been reading ‘Moby Dick.’)”

“The struggling housing market has plenty of homeowners worried, even those for whom foreclosure does not lurk beneath the stormy waters like a massive creature threatening to overturn all that floats in the name of shelter and security.”

“Hang in there, says Zoe Liston, a Twin Cities Realtor since 1994 and an appraiser since 1998. People seem to have forgotten that buying a house is a long-term investment, Liston says.”

“‘They’ve been spoiled in the last few years, expecting to get their money back in four or five years,’ Liston said.”

“Home prices increased so rapidly and steadily for so many years that a whole generation expects it to be that way, according to Liston. ‘Too many people used their house like a bank account,’ she adds. ‘We paid $250,000 and it’s now worth $300,000 - let’s go on a vacation!’”

“‘When people buy a house,’ she says, ‘it’s emotional, not logical.’ The emotions tied to homebuying are one reason Liston got out of selling houses and into appraising houses.”

“An appraiser’s job is to compare the house to three or four recent sales of similar homes - less emotional, more practical, Liston says. And for years, each appraisal brought good news for homeowners, as prices rose in the Twin Cities market.”

“‘Except now, people hate me,’ she says with a half-laugh, ‘as values drop.’”