Bits Bucket For June 27, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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“We’re right in the middle of it, right now,” Warren Buffett warned yesterday. “I think the ‘flation’ part will heat up and I think the ‘stag’ part will get worse… I think inflation is really picking up. Whether it’s steel or oil, we see it everyplace. It’s exploding.”
Buffett was asked on CNBC yesterday what he would do if he were Fed chairman…
“I’d resign.”
3% drop in the Stock Market indicies in one day. Rising oil/food and fungible modities trend coupled with deflation of assets.
It’s starting to sink in with the Big Boys and the MSM, isn’t it?
“It’s starting to sink in with the Big Boys and the MSM, isn’t it?”
The folks who scripted this are sitting back waiting patiently with their money while Joe Sixpack scampers about looking for an exit. Ever wonder how many shattered families, wife beatings, sons who run off to the military, etc., have been caused by these greedy billionaires who still don’t have enough money?
Hey … US Billionaires need all we can get. Have you seen the cost of gasoline these days?
Or… Football Stadiums, or Thoroughbred Horses or Gourmet poodle biscuits or Italian wedding reception “Ice sculptures” or turbo powered Segways or a round trip ticket to space or lunch with Warren or legal expenses for “juniors” drunken car accident in the Ferrari or…
“Have you seen the cost of gasoline these days?”
Watching CNBC this morning, the euphoria with which the talking heads speak about oil is eerily reminiscent of the housing bubble (real estate only goes up, buy now or be priced out forever). The rapid spike in oil prices has nothing to do with fundamentals. As soon as it hits $140, they’re talking about $150, even $200. It’s mass speculative hysteria all over again.
Why listen to what anyone predicts for oil? There are so many bozos saying so many things, one of them is bound to be right just by lottery….
If oil prices really are a speculative bubble then there’s a lot of easy money to be made shorting oil futures.
The rapid spike in oil prices has nothing to do with fundamentals
And yet the spot price is the market-clearing price.
People can apparently afford these prices. Or can’t afford not to pay them.
Same difference.
LOL. Answer of the decade right there!
I would resign, and then spend the rest of my life on the speaking tour blasting Greenspan. This is absolutely, without question, his fault; BB job sucks because Geenie did such an awful job.
I suspect BB knew it would be this way when he accepted the position.
–
Then you underestimate these egomanics. What turned AG and BB into financial evildoers is having this much power that stokes their egos and they think that they can manipulate the economy perfectly. They can’t, but they can’t stop manipulating. Our way of economic central planning (targets for homeownership!) doesn’t work either.
Jas
I think Bernanke is a flawed but decent man trying to make do in a situation in which there are no good (or painless) options.
Greenspan? Egomaniac and Macro-Meddler.
As I recall, Bernanke, as fed governor, voted along with every rate drop that Greenspan implemented. I don’t see how he’s innocent of this.
It’s really tough for me to label a man who’s voice shakes through his speeches as an egomaniac. He looks more like a deer in the headlights to me.
And that’s a commentary on what I feel he recognizes is coming at him not on his intelligence.
Lionel I wasn’t implicating that his hands were clean in how we got here, just that he knew these years were going to be like walking a tightrope.
I agree Carrie Ann.
Greenspan is the master of bubbles, and Bernanke was brought in to clean up his mess.
There’s a new book out called “Greenspan’s Bubbles” that’s worth a read.
The Fed’s fight against inflation over the past 30 years have resulted in these bubbles. Think of a pressure cooker with no escape valve and the “inflation” lid securely tightened in place.
Reminds me of a time camping when a friend, heating water for pasta in a pressure cooker, struggled mightily to get the lid off after it started boiling madly. It did eventually come off, in a most horrible fashion. Think missing skin.
The Fed’s fight against inflation over the past 30 years have resulted in these bubbles.
I do hope you meant “deflation” not “inflation”. Saying that Greenspan was fighting inflation is sort of like saying Don Corleone was fighting crime.
current under/over on Being Ben Bernanke, Fed Chief
17 days.
17 days? 17 DAYS????? I hate to rain on your parade, man, but we ain’t going to last 17 HOURS in here!
That has to be one of the best scenes in that Alien sequel.
I LOVE the Alien movies. Ridley Scott is a fabulous director.
Good scene indeed, but I think the more Hudson quote from Aliens that’s most applicable here occurs right after the first lander goes splat:
“That’s it man, game over man, game over! What the f*** are we gonna do now? What are we gonna do?”
Maybe we should put a young scrappy girl in charge of the Fed. Couldn’t POSSIBLY do worse than our current Fed chief.
‘Maybe we should put a young scrappy girl in charge of the Fed. Couldn’t POSSIBLY do worse than our current Fed chief.’
Oooh, ooh, pick me!
Except I would get impatient in about 20 seconds and decide to just nuke them all from orbit.
It’s the only way to be sure, you know.
Or Olygal, in two minutes you would come out with both barrels blazing and they wouldn{t know what hit them verbally!
Could be fun to watch, if you get the job, please make sure C-span gets a live feed.
I’ll wager a strong sum on over.
Sorry, there’s no gambling allowed over the internet.
There is if it’s in a jurisdiction where our friendly congress-critters don’t have power to do their Vegas/Atlantic City donors’ bidding under the guise of playing “Mommy” to protect all of us poor souls from the dangers of freedom to do what we please with our own funds.
The idea that Warren Buffett (who has turned out to be a mere mortal, capable of mistakes a’plently lately) said what he did, speak volumes…
He is the most respected moneyman in the country, bar none.
It’s like LBJ saying he’d known the war in Vietnam was lost, when Walter Cronkite said so.
Brunswick To Close 12 Plants… “The company has been cutting costs the past several years, but the recent market has forced it to ramp up its efforts. Brunswick posted a 71% drop in first-quarter net income as demand for boats declined”.
Boat sales are way down, they just closed a plant in our area (S.Carolina), along with discontinuing one line. Boat repo’s are way up also, the toys are the first to go.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chicago-brunswick-boat-plant-closing-jun26,0,878865.story
The downtown Chicago marina has a ton of empty mooring balls this year. Powerboaters paid for them early in the year but never showed up. The parks department is happy because they are renting them out to transient boaters at $50+ a day. The summer calendar has a lot of sailboat events this year - more than normal - and we’ve got lots of sailboats visiting. They can stay in the city near their races instead of being forced to the transient docks at marinas as far away as Wisconsin and Indiana. I think the cities owning those marinas are really missing those transient docking fees!
WMBZ, which one closed. I know up the road from you in Columbia, seahunt boat mfg. closed, I really liked that boat. I travel down your way every 1/4 I have noticed on Isle of Palms, It seems every 4th house for sale. I`m a boater and sold ours last sept. right when the market tanked. If we still had it, it would be years before its sold. It cost $500 for a fill-up.
Take care,
Lane
“I`m a boater and sold ours last sept. right when the market tanked. If we still had it, it would be years before its sold. It cost $500 for a fill-up.”
I’m not seeing any deals in boats out there. The wishing prices resemble those of used houses.
Sailboats seem to be moving. I sail with the owners of a sailboat dealership every couple of weeks. Their business is not off by much.
I’m in the market for a used sailboat. Somewhere between 32 and 38 feet and built by one of the brands with the highest reputations for quality. I’ve found that once these boats reach a certain age, the depreciation is pretty much over with as long as you keep them up (which isn’t hard because the quality is good - and old boats don’t have lots of electronic gizmos to go haywire). I’ve been looking at some mid-1980s boats and so far they are all getting sold before I have a chance to get out and look at them. I’ve found another potential candidate on Lake Erie and this weekend I’m in Cleveland, so I’m crossing my fingers and hoping I get a chance to take a look at it.
Lane, I no longer live on Sullivans Island I live in Columbia. The plant that closed was the Sea Hunt and Sea Boss plant, which was a Brunswick plant. 130 jobs cut, I believe.
I go to the coast a good bit and you are correct, for sale signs everywhere, but prices are not adjusting down much.
wmbz
used to live on Covenant street between two notch and belt line, and worked for TV19 and wolo 25, i wonder if they are still in that old quanset hut?
If Obama is writing checks and fund raising for Hillary`s campaign, and Hillary is campaigning for Obama, does that make her a political ….. nah
All those “grassroots” internet donors are now paying off the old bat’s debt. I wonder how they feel about that?
The messiah had a bad month fundraising wise in May. We’ll see who really pays anything.
Maybe that`s why he wants another simulus package
fisa- death for rapists- guns for all- positions bama’s supported for years
now if mcsane could finally admit anwr is a sht hole that needs a good drilling
he’s getting there.
Next Japanese monster movie, due out in Fall ‘08: The Messiah vs. The Fossil.
McCainzilla vs. the Messiah
(Rodan’s looking very much like vp material)
I try to provide my donations without conditions. By giving money to a candidate, I am also giving them my trust that they will spend the money most appropriately for the good of the campaign.
This same logic is why I give bums money, even if they buy booze and blow. Of course, our presidential candidate have better judgment, but my point is that I provide unconditioned gifts/donations.
Whether the implication was intentional or not, I agree that politicians are bums. Although i feel like that sentiment might be offensive to most bums.
Our opinions diverge strongly, however, with regards to the judgment of our presidential candidates.
All those “grassroots” internet donors are now paying off the old bat’s debt. I wonder how they feel about that?
It’s my understanding that they’re taking pains to keep the monies separate, because donors might get upset. That is, specific fundraising will be undertaken for “the bat,” and those funds will not be commingled with the existing campaign funds.
My understanding is that you are correct, but this is politics so no one is interested in facts or the truth.
Just truthiness.
I’ve been most excited over the exit of 3 religious leaders so far, the truth of youtube showing just how flawed religion really is.
I hope that the 2 candidates keep picking in blind faith…
If only we could separate church and state…
oh, wasn{t that somewhere in our constitution¿
whoops, using a different keyboard. But you get the gist¿
Wow, am I first?
First what?
lol - Ben
what are you 12 years old? if you want to be first at least post something interesting or a link at least please
besides wmbz beat you to the punch
ha ha —–
Nope.
You’re not even sloppy seconds.
This Recession, It’s Just Beginning
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030.html
This thing’s going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We’re caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of.
Only this will be a different kind of recession — a recession with an overlay of inflation. That combo puts the Federal Reserve in a Catch-22 — whatever it does to solve one problem only makes the other worse. Emerging from a two-day meeting this week, Fed officials signaled that further recession-fighting rate cuts are unlikely and that their next move will be to raise rates to contain inflationary expectations.
“that their next move will be to raise rates to contain inflationary expectations.”
The cow has gotten out. Better close the barn door.
Mom recalls paying 12-14% interest on her mortgage in the ’80s. How high do you think mortgage rates will eventually get once we reach equilibrium?…supposedly a 9 month high already.
NoSingleOne, In the early 80’s I put a 5% downpayment on my first home which was being built. The interest rate at the time was 7 3/8%…by the time my house was finished I had to close at 17 1/2%. Assh*le puckering time. I had two extra bedrooms…got 2 roommates…until the rates finally came down. Never ever believe a realwhore (used house salesperson). I built my dream home in May 2003 and against the advice of my realtwhore, who wanted me to get a ARM at 3.25% (after all you can always refi, always, etc., etc.) I held firm and insisted on a 30 yr fixed jumbo at 5 1/4% (20% down, FICO of 820). She has now declared bankruptcy and is selling timeshares.
All one has to do to become a realtwhore is to fog a mirror for more than 15 min.
go for you diogenes
hopefully when the dust settles in this meltdown i will still have my current income and my savings to pick up a nice place- until the dust does settle i am a renter
I remember people paying double digit mortgage rates back then. And you know what? Ordinary working folks could still buy houses without special teaser rates, I/O loans, or neg-ams. In fact, they could even afford them!
Our stag-flation situation combined with the government pouring billions of dollars on houseflippers and specuvestors, while at the same time saying F*** You to savers, hard-workers, and small businessmen will ruin this country.
It is true. Current prices are WAY out of line with incomes no matter what the interest rate. Sort of a commentary on our “monthly payment” society.
I bought a house with a 16% rate in 80/81. (That might have been the rate on the 2nd though).
At 16% on $225K ($250K price with 10% downpayment) you would need $3K per month just to cover the interest. Of course, if you could put down $100K, it would bring the interest payment per month down to $2K.
In 1980, the median house price on Long Island was $70,000. Someone making $30k with a wife who picked up 5K part time could afford a house. And there were some true “fixer-uppers” available for $50K.
I think the high interest rates made homes more affordable in a weird way. House prices stayed low, people put 20% down, and often paid extra principal payments…the goal being to get rid of the mortgage as soon as possible.
I found an interesting spread sheet here:
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2007/metro_affordability_index_2007.xls
Median salary vs Median House price for the past 30 years or so in major metro areas…
They don’t have the guts to raise rates - not yet, anyway. That’ll happen next year so that Dear Leader can flee before the Recession is “official.” Rates will go up and the Recession will be declared both probably less than a month after the new president takes office. Then he’ll get the blame - and most people are stupid enough to accept that excuse.
“…an overlay of inflation…”
The inflated price of commodities is really aiding in the deflation of housing prices and will also be the undoing of the hyper-consumer economy. Is there possibly any better accelerant to pour on this deflationary fire right now than high commodity prices?
I totally agree - the more food and gas cost, the less there is left to spend on houses, cars, DVD players. It IS a zero-sum game.
As seen in yesterday’s California thread - prices can and will drop by 50% or more. Every extra dollar I’ve spent on gas the last few months is another dollar I will NOT offer on a house, if I choose to do so later on.
THIS is how savers win - if you have ten or twenty grand sure you’re getting killed on inflation of food and gas, but when you’re the only one left standing with a 10% cash down payment on a house that used to cost $400k - you win.
Or maybe you have $100k cash, and you’re the only one interested AT ALL in the formerly “Million dollar home” that you soon will be able to pick up for a quarter of that.
Overheard 15 pilots all sitting around drinking wine and complaining about cost of food,utilities, gas etc. And wondering out loud amongst themselves, who-which airline is going to fall first.
My dinner mates wonder why I am not listening to them…eavesdropping is so much fun.
Talking head on CNBC said the Europeans were too worried about inflation and were keeping their interest rates too high. I wish our fed would worry a little about it.
Do not touch the stock market with a ten foot pole until the S&P 500 dividend yield rises to 4%.
Keep the popcorn popping,
Red Baron
And until its P/E drops below ten.
The problem with P/E is, do you take the current value, which is backward looking, or a forward estimate by some analysts/pump and dump chimps? What is it now, both current and forward? I think dividends are a better lure to the value investor, because that’s real money you’re getting - assuming you’re not at the top of an economic cycle and they’re going to get cut on the way down.
I’d like to see a graph of the estimated vs. actual P/E’s over time. There might be some interesting correlations in there; I’m guessing someone has already done this.
“…Truth is, there are always price or supply shocks of one sort or another. The real problem is that the underlying fundamentals had gotten badly out of whack, making the economy susceptible to a shock. The only way to make things better is to get those fundamentals back in balance. In this case, that means bringing what we consume in line with what we produce, letting the dollar fall to its natural level, wringing the excess capacity out of industries that overexpanded during the credit bubble and allowing real estate prices to fall in line with incomes. …”
“Fundamentals back in balance” - that would do it, but I do not believe the government would really like to see the pain that involved. Mr. Pearlstein is on target.
This is nothing new. It is called compressability which occurs in a steep dive and the speed of sound is approached. All the forces build up on flight surfaces and the controls lock.
As you get closer to the ground, with luck, the thicker air allows you to regain control by pulling like a b**ch on the controls
Unfortunately it only works about 20% of the time. The result is a smokin hole in the ground.
Deceleration trauma!!!!
You must be a “Lawn Dart” pilot…
I am here so I made the 20% cut.
LOL
I was thinking about the slowdown and how it affects people on sales commission. I think a lot of people that have never worked on commission have no idea of how it works.
Most companies set-up their pay plans to really benefit those that over acheive. In other words if you sell X you get x in commission. If X is your sales budget, you won’t get rich generally but you won’t be hurting.
If you sell little less than X, you are probably OK. If you are selling a lot less than X, you are probably supplementing your income through savings or credit. Most companies don’t give you anything extra in income if you aren’t at least at their minimum level of performance. If you aren’t at a certain level of performance, you aren’t eligible for many of the extra Promotional Moneys that get tossed around in many industries.
If you sell X + Y, you generally will be paid your normal commissions on all of the sales, plus extra incentives. These are the people that you hear about getting rich selling danged near anything. They are maxing out their compensation plans and then some.
So in a slowing sales environment across many, many fields people in commissioned sales positions are being crushed, but are still employed.
Also keep in mind that most people in sales are pretty optimistic and most assume that they will not only continue making their same highest income, but will do even better the next year. They have to in order to keep up their standard of living, because next year their sales budget will be X + 10%.
Hopefully they all saved some of the gravy from the past few years to carry them through the lean years. And once their credit limits are maxed out, these consumers will have to reign in their spending one way or another.
Good points.
This will be a really tough time to be in sales - realtors, auto sales, etc. When you do well, it’s because you are a great salesperson. When you don’t, it’s because you are a loser. In either case, it is largely a matter of being in the right or wrong position at the right or wrong time. Time to reread “Death of a Salesman”?
Not only that but CL is easily up to 500 a day in commission only sales “jobs” in NYC….and getting worse…
I still get 30-40 job offers weekly from CL, and maybe 1 or 2 of these people can actually read at an 8th grade level…The people who reply to my resume can’t figure this out:
BIG HINT: Free-lance means people CALL OR E-MAIL me with job offers that include a stated pay.
—————
This will be a really tough time to be in sales
Down in FL visiting my mom. She is a sales manager for Welcome Wagon…. a division of Move, Inc headed by David Lereah. She has all of FL as her territory and its getting ugly. Last week her team revenue was $30K. Her quota is $60K. The worst part is that her team was #1 in the COUNTRY for sales. She needs to hire a rep in the Jacksonville area and received a bunch of resumes…. mostly mortgage brokers, real estate people, etc. She didn’t even bother to interview them. Luckily she is getting close to retirement (and can actually financially afford to retire) so she just keeps plugging along until the company implodes.
everyone except gov workers are on commission- consider that
Jeebus, tax, do you get up every morning with that one, same thought in your head or what?
once the tax hate bug bites you, it’s hard to get rid of. I dream about the IRS
‘the tax hate bug’
Well, I used to get mad at the TV and all the injustice in the world, etc. Then I just turned it off.
In my dreams, the IRS is Dr. Evil, and Mini-Me (the Franchise Tax Board) keeps running up and kicking me in the nuts just when I think I have the situation under control.
I was really surprised they sent me my stimulation.
(I have a couple outstanding issues with Auntie IRiS). I thought I wasn’t going to get a package because I’ve been a bad girl.
Speaking of stimulation, and Mini-Me (Verne Troyer):
Are we all looking forward to the release of Mini’s sex tape?
Well, I used to get mad at the TV and all the injustice in the world, etc. Then I just turned it off.
Watched a CNBC special last night about the rise of the ultra wealthy. Commentator interviewed ultra wealthy business people, primarily in finance (read Hedge Funds).
When they got to the part called “middle-class wealth” I started to feel sick. Successful business people with a net worth of 5 - 10 million. They didn’t feel wealthy, they didn’t behave wealthy, and relative to the ultra-wealthy, they really were in a different class. The commentator then discussed the fact that the highest paid doctors are neurosurgeons who average 2.7M per year, while the top hedge fund managers averaged 800M per year.
I am generally not a very religous person, but there is a reason ENVY and GREED are sins. I try to just focus on what matters right now… supporting my family, saving money, and working on my startup. I try to think that if all goes well, at least we’ll be part of the “middle-class wealth” before I’m 40.
Wow. That was a mental image I could have done without. Thanks. Now where did I leave my Neuralyzer, anyway? The biggest problem with that thing is remembering where you put it after you use it…
Gritty:
you may need to keep that Neuralyzer handy.
Successful business people with a net worth of 5 - 10 million. They didn’t feel wealthy, they didn’t behave wealthy, and relative to the ultra-wealthy, they really were in a different class.
If you bust your butt and make 5 Million dollars in a conventional small business, you will not feel wealthy.
- It’ll make you angry at Barack Obama and Congress for wanting to tax you to death while pouring money on specuvestors.
- It will make you angry at the Fed for keeping interest rates so low that if you’d only be able to reliably make $150/year on dividend income
- It will make you angry (again) at Barack Obama and Congress for wanting to raise the tax on dividend income, while pouring billions on specu-vestors and housflippers. (And Obama wants to take payroll tax (SS) on dividend and cap gains income, too!)
- It’ll make you angry that proposals to means-test Social Security and Medicare, combined with housing subsidies for failed housflippers may make someone who saved NOTHING have the same standard of living as you do when you retire.
- It will make you angry at Congress and the President for inflationary tactics that eat away at your savings.
Basically, there are only two types of people in the US who feel wealthy: The House Flippers with the HELOC’d Hummers in the driveway, and people with about $100Milllion or more.
$5M is just getting by, and it puts you in the Most Hated class of people, if you’re still working…the high wage earner/saver.
yep, I got a few brickbats thrown at me last week and if I’m considered wealthy, this country is in a heap of trouble.
“$5M is just getting by, and it puts you in the Most Hated class of people, if you’re still working…the high wage earner/saver.”
That’s a load of BS. “Just getting by” is when you spend your last $100 on diapers, food, and fuel, hoping nothing comes up until your next paycheck. Let’s be smart here.
If you have 5-10 million net worth
It will make you angry that you can now buy only 25% as much oil or gold with that money due to the collapse of the dollar due to borrow and spend GOP. It will make you mad that your input costs are going through the roof while your customers have no disposable income due to rising gas prices and food inflation. You’ll be mad that gamblers at Bear Sterns and other investment banks were saved by a FED bailout and that our FED has allowed banks to borrow cash against worthless paper. The bailout comes from both sides.
INFLATION IS A TAX
BORROW AND SPEND LEADS TO INFLATION
The only people who feel wealthy are those top 0.1% who know exactly what the FED is going to do and who have confidence that they will be bailed out. Everyone else knows that their wealth even if they are conservative could evaporate very quickly, but those with political power and access can use the system to milk the rest of us.
AGAIN INFLATION IS A TAX
BORROW AND SPEND = INFLATION
Those people with 5-10million net worth can buy a quarter as much oil and gold and far fewer euros
Their customers have much less money to spend and thus businesses are hurting. This accounts for many of Americas millionairs.
The only people that are secure are the top 0.1% who have inside info from the government and can count on government bailouts ie Bear Sterns ect. The ones that can create business for themselves by getting contracts from the gov to say deliver a case of coke to the troops for 150 dollars each, or get a contract for hard to account for like public relations.
Please tell me that doesn’t mean that you are a multimillionaire - on this blog - waiting for property in Texas, of all places, to drop in value? Um?
I’m 12 miles south of DC - you have to pick one side or the other
JOIN your local !!!
http://www.fcta.org
‘you have to pick one side or the other’
I understand and appreciate activism. I am with you on government waste, etc. But I just got wore out trying to get my fellow citizens to understand how much we are giving up. Soldier on.
At the risk of inciting all the people who appear to wish death and many JT’s upon those of us who work for the government (and who generally appear to change their mind when they suddenly need help)–feds are subject to outsourcing. Read up on OMB circular A-76. I almost joined a buddy’s consulting firm who traveled around and outsourced mostly jobs on military bases. Of course there is now often a recognition that outsourcing ends up costing more–but I am no expert and it is not something I worry about. But I know it is a big deal for many feds.
Now this does not mean I do not get p*ssed at the post office or OTHER gubmint employees–plenty of idiots out there. (Post office sent a letter back for more postage–one with important docs–that had EXTRA postage on it. Idiots.) But having worked on both sides of the fence the constant ragging on government workers and the glorification of the private sector gets old.
No one likes the IRS, but until we enter a socialist heaven we need to collect taxes somehow. Maybe a flat tax IS the answer.
Tax, I’m just around the corner from you. And I’d ask you to consider: Do you really help your cause by stating the position in a repetitive manner?
I can answer that. He merely marginalizes and isolates his cause to the very fringe. If there were sound, succinct and educated elements to his posts, he’d get much further. VirginiaTechDan is a pretty good example of laying out a positions in a way that elicits positive feedback. Flat just keeps nattering away.
We got the best “financial innovation” in the world…we got 30 years of really “well educated” kids in the workforce…and we have an IRS tax code that is 20,000+ pages thick…
“When the fish are caught…the “nets” are forgotten”…Lao Tsu
Outsourcing government jobs just let’s those who are in government give their buddies large piles of cash to skim from. Yes gov workers may get good benefits, but how much of the money given to outsourcing companies in Iraq was wasted or stolen. The number is in the 10’s of billions is my guess. Read all of the articles about food and fuel delivery or companies that were created immediately prior to the war by politically connected people. The military could rapidly expand it’s ranks with higher pay just like the contractors do so there is no reason to have them. The same holds true for all the other jobs in government. Eventually you get no bid or rigged contracts.
Hwy50 - is is actually less than half that (admittedly in pretty small type). A Thompson/RIA one volume code ends on page 9,553 - it is a little out of date, but not by much. It includes a lot of history of changes (info that was in the code, but no longer is), but no annotations.
30,000 2009
Speaking of military and bad planning,
Looks like the military is going to send over Another 30,000 in 2009 to Afghanistan-Iraq.
Another waste of time, money, and lives.
Diplomatbob, I am with you. I can only conclude that a lot of the cranks just don’t know a lot about how things work. Like private industry doesn’t have waste and inefficiency?
I have the only real security a person can have - a skill set that it is in demand. I get calls from recruiters every day about positions that pay more, but I like the security right now. If it weren’t for that security, the gov’t simply could not hire someone like me. They/you pay a lot more for contractors with my skill set - like multiples more. That money goes to middlemen who add zero value.
The people I work with work hard, literally 24×7 (once some crank on here was complaining that gov’t workers don’t do extended hours) making products that you all rely on every day, and that are not profitable for private industry to make. We are always under the gun and we simply cannot have any outages of service (and we don’t.) A lot of people I work with are former military. They are not lazy idiots, most perform to a higher standard than I ever saw in the private sector. Not every gov’t worker is at the DMV or HUD.
The disposable worker model hasn’t served us too well, I don’t think. Companies that fire people just to make the numbers look better for a quarter are not making our country stronger or richer.
I wonder how much the haters would complain if they had to do without gov’t services, or pay the full price for what they would cost in the private sector - a lot of people simply would not be able to make a living if they had to bear those costs. The magical free market doesn’t solve all problems any more than a magical nanny government does. But there are irrational extremists on both ends.
“making products that you all rely on every day”
Please give an example…
By the way you killed your own argument when you emphasized that you work for the gov’t because of “security”…which means you are not held to a real standard. In the real world, you produce or get fired. And, you can produce and still get fired. Gov’t workers all crave safety and security and demand fat pensions and free health care to boot.And demand at the same time to be exempt from the realities of the marketplace.
It’s why may of us in the real world hold you in such contempt.
Yes, of course security means nobody produces to a standard. Back in the days when US workers had security, those workers were not productive or held to standards. Derrrrrr
Funny, even though I’m exempt from the realities of the marketplace, my phone is ringing off the hook with people trying to hire me. I’m sure this is hard for some to understand, not everyone needs to be threatened in order to produce or hone their skill set and accomplishments.
The free market offers many incentives to worthwhile workers. With recession looming I am choosing security for now. If you don’t have that choice, maybe you should get different skills instead of whining that others do have that choice.
Was it 1.5 years ago that Circuit City fired their top sales people?
Being the best worker at a company is no guarantee you will not be gotten rid of to make a quarter look good.
I wonder how much the haters would complain if they had to do without gov’t services, or pay the full price for what they would cost in the private sector
We still pay the full price. Where do you think government money comes from, exactly?
So, you think that you pay the same for gov’t services as what you would pay for these services on the open market? Interesting.
What do you think open market law enforcement would costs?
It’s better known as “warlords” or “organized crime”.
We still pay the full price. Where do you think government money comes from, exactly?
No you don’t take a look at the national debt. We have been transfering the costs to future generations.
PS A lot of local gov are downsizing. Even gov jobs are not safe.
Yes, patience. I absolutely think that. Two main reasons:
1) No one has the incentive to be cost effective with my tax money the way I do if I were to spend it myself. New Orleans comes to mind.
2) I don’t really have the option of saying, “No, I’d really rather not pay for that,” except through very indirect means. This means that, even if one agency gave me something of value with my tax money, there’s probably a hundred more wasting it on ridiculous crap.
“PS A lot of local gov are downsizing. Even gov jobs are not safe.”
No problem, my phone is always ringing. That’s security.
“No problem, my phone is always ringing. ”
I bet it is. Government workers are notorious for not answering the phone, not knowing anything when they do pick up the phone, and not knowing how to transfer a call when it is clear that they do indeed know nothing.
And,demonstrating perfectly the dead head gov. jobhound mentality, you manage to not answer the question posed…
“making products that you all rely on everyday”..
So, what are they? Name one.
And that dopey “you all” tells me you’re one of those nitwit southerners whose federal tax dollars are delivered from productive Yankee states. Deadbeat.
Hi-skill government workers are often trading security for wages to some degree. But many of us are motivated by a desire for public service (really–the U.S. has been good to me and I believe citizens–even angry bitter ones–deserve high quality government) and because the work we do is quite interesting and often not really available in the private sector.
The money issue–that government does not spend it as well as a private citizen or company would–is semi valid. Being in government means I often do not want the government to expand because I recognize it can do some things well and other things not necessarily so well. But plenty of companies waste stockholders cash like mad. The answer is to demand more from your representatives and get involved.
If more people accepted the responsibilities of citizenship there would be fewer problems in government. But most do not, they just b*tch.
“many of us are motivated by a desire for public service”
Then do us all a service and get a job doing something productive.
But if you must malinger with the government, then decline those tax-payer provided benefits like defined pensions, free healthcare, and cola raises that do not exist in the marketplace.
Too much to ask?…then I guess your desire to provide “public service” is pretty thin.
Did you ever ask yourself why the public you claim to serve holds you in such contempt? The obvious hypocrisy in your post would be a clue.
Actually Spike, no, I do not worry about “why the public I claim to serve” holds me in contempt. The beauty of my job is that I interact with Americans on almost a daily basis and am able to help them with issues they could not solve via the private sector (well–”Executive Outcomes” might be able to help. Always thought that was a great name). In many cases I can help them expand their business opportunities and generate jobs/income for even more Americans. So far from seeing contempt, I actually receive a fair amount of praise from people and see a real benefit from what I do. It helps make the job worthwhile.
Why decline the benefits? They are part of the tradeoff for making less than had I stuck with my previous employer. My last job with a Fortune 500 company had a defined benefit pension, 401k, health care (and it is not free with the feds, not sure where you get that), higher salaries, and fairly regular raises. And what you seem to overlook is that I cannot go to my boss and say–I did X last year (say saved the taxpayer $2 billion)–I deserve a raise. I get the same bump as everyone else. Does that suck–sure, but it is part of the deal.
That there are people in the U.S who think anyone working for the government is a malingerer…well, no real point in getting into a discussion.
People hate the police… until they are robbed.
People hate the courts… until they are wronged.
People hate gas taxes… until the roads are pot holed.
People hate the DMV… until an uninsured motorist hits them.
People hate local government… until the parks are unkempt drug dens.
The list goes on…
I’ve said it a thousand times…
Those of you who think govt employees are overpaid and underworked should feel free to step up and show us your superior talents! Why be slighted in the private sector when you could earn more and do less in the public sector?
Step right up!!! Then, after a year or two, come back and tell us all about what an easy job you have and how they are paying you too much.
“In many cases I can help them expand their business opportunities and generate jobs/income for even more Americans.”
OK, now I have a fairly good idea of the game you’re in.
Economic opportunity loans…for targeted populations.
I started and run my own business,and anyone who can’t bootstrap a company without government funds ought not to be in business. Government grants and targeted below-market loans are perfect examples of malinvestment and cause nothing but distortions in the marketplace.
All government workers are in their hearts soviet-style bureaucrats…they believe in central planning, government interference, social control thu distribution of taxpayer monies, et. al. The realities of the marketplace frightens these little bunnies.
Well, bob, look at the US economy and weep…this is what all you well-intentioned, in-it-just-to-serve-the-folks bunnies have done…sent us on our way to the third world.
All you bunnies must be so proud of yourselves.
Comment by Ben Jones
2008-06-27 05:01:37
‘Jeebus, tax, do you get up every morning with that one, same thought in your head or what?’
Seems like it, don’t it?
And the second thought always in his head is evidently: ‘Spurn all punctuation, capitalization, pronoun identification and every single other decorative nicety of the English language’.
In fact, tax responded to a post of mine recently and I stared at that cryptic jumble in puzzlement for a good few minutes before I gave up in vague alarm. It was either an attempted insult or a very simple veal paprikash recipe. I still don’t know.
With “veal paprikash,” you nearly owed me a new keyboard.
Who’s are daddy? AFSCME is!
our - sheesh!
I don’t think everyone except government workers are on commission, but obviously almost everybody’s job in the private sector is totally dependent upon sales to some extent.
True commissioned salespeople might not get laid-off in a downturn. They just won’t get paid or will get paid very, very little. The support staff will eventually feel the pain of slowing sales, if sales get slow enough to force layoffs, salary cuts or cuts in benefits. Until then most will see the slowdown as a nice change of pace from being over-worked.
My dad was a commissioned salesperson back during the tail end of the depression. Worked his butt off for a year to sell an insurance policy to a company in PA. The commissions would have given him a decent income for the times. He closed the deal and was promptly fired. Said it was the only time in his life he felt like committing suicide.
Palmetto, fortunately for us companies are much more fair, decent and loyal to their employees to ever pull a stunt like that in this day and age.
Is this snark? I honestly don’t know.
“He closed the deal and was promtly fired. Said it was the only time in his life he felt like commiting suicide.”
I first read this post ten minutes ago and have come back to it five times already. It struck a chord within me because it gave meat to the abstract.
It’s one thing to read about events, another thing to personally experience them.
Yeah, people get screwed over left and right. Fired right before they reach their 20 years for pensions, kept part-time to avoid paying benefits, Pension today-gone tomorrow. And on and on…..the only thing an employee can count on today is to count on nothing, and plan accordingly.
kinda torpedoes the concept of “team player”
I always hated that bs
“the only thing an employee can count on today is to count on nothing, and plan accordingly.”
amen brother-
i have planned accordingly and when the (shtf) which it really feels like it is starting too in the msm and ptb eyes
hopefully i will be ok
my wife is on my case a little for working too much lately
she does not fully understand the gravity of the situation
of the economy and our financial situation (which thank god is pretty good)
i keep telling her this is the time to be working as much as i can and saving as much as i can just in case
(yes i have a fear of being poor)
she will come around, as she has already acknowledged
my tin foil hat rants of 2005-2007 have come to fruition
(thanks hbb you made me look like a genius)
in my time talking to people in nyc lately most are working 2 jobs-(unless you are wealthy whihc alot of people are here) i hope eventually she tires of this life here and we can take our $ somewhere else for a cheaper cost of living and less stress
Fired right before they reach their 20 years for pensions
I’m have my own business now.
Before that I was an executive for a Giant Media Company. “Laid off” a week before my 40th birthday (because 40 is generally accepted as the minimum age for “age discrimination” cases) and a month before my pension would have vested. (I was there a while.) Interestingly, my company, now with three employees other than myself, gets about half its business from this Big Media Company, so they can’t say they didn’t need me.
This was about 6 years ago….
These days employees shoot their employers and coworkers.
“These days employees shoot their employers and coworkers”.
Something to be said for that. I can see there point in doing it. I just wish they would take out the board of directors instead a single mom with 3 kids.
“Laid off” a week before my 40th birthday (because 40 is generally accepted as the minimum age for “age discrimination” cases)
The law is actually called the “workers over 40 age discrimination act”.
So the company was just following the letter of the law and abiding by their fiduciary responsibility to their stock holders.
Funny how it didn’t work out so well for them…
I had a good job offer out of college, accepted it, only to later tell them I wasn’t going to start with them, and took a different job.
At the time, I stressed over “honor”, “my word”, and all that crap. At the end of the day, I figured they wouldn’t hesitate to fire if times got tough, so screw ‘em, I did what was best for me.
Best decision I ever made.
2008-06-27 05:22:27
Palmetto, fortunately for us companies are much more fair, decent and loyal to their employees to ever pull a stunt like that in this day and age.
Have a friend who was top sales for food servicing co, got his entire terrority taken away, given to ’some other guy’ and subsequently given a new terrority to develope.
Along with his commisions, he was earning squat for commisions. Finally quit SYSCO.
Seems they don´t reward their top people well.
And forgot to say, along with the New terrority to develop, he was downsized in his percentages.
Quit all that and was recently awarded >Teacher of the Yr in CA. Nice guy-really!
Real estate agents flipping burgers breaks my heart.
Medium rare please… extra onions. Nice suit - was that Armani?
Oldest daughter is her Burger King’s hiring manager. I don’t think they could get through her interview if she bothered to call them. One of her questions is “Why should I hire you?”
I talk a lot about taxes here, too! But I don’t hate them. They’re necessary, esp. if you want some social programs. Other great nations have high taxes.
I just want everyone to pay the same percentage, and I don’t really care if that percentage is 20% or 40% as long as it’s all the same. And if we need to raise taxes to cover a war or national disaster, etc, then EVERYONE’S taxes should go up a point…whether you’re making 20K a year of 500K year.
Is it just an abstract idea of “fairness” that leads you to this opinion?
I’ll assume you’d say we should tax all forms of income/gains/etc. at these same rates as well?
What if this requirement makes the tax burden on the poor so high that more of them are forced to rely on those social programs and so the overall cost goes up?
Since wealth is so concentrated in this country, skewing the tax rates in a progressive way means that you would only have to increase the tax burden on the wealthy a small percentage to relieve a much larger percentage portion on the poor.
What value does an abstract and simple-minded notion of “fairness” have if it leads to bad consequences?
Not true. Here’s an example of some government / state workers on commision.
Ten toll collectors appeared in court today in suits and business clothes to face charges that they skimmed $7,500 in quarters and dollars from their Massachusetts Turnpike Authority booths.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2008/06/tolltakers_arra.html
I really appreciate my govt job right about now.
Coming from a decade of auto sales experience, I hear ya!
It’s always hero to zero, you’re on top of the world on the 31st of the month, and tomorrow the boss asks “What have you done for me lately?”. Here’s the funniest part too, when times get tough like this and sales are down the dealerships don’t buckle down and reduce staff to the “good” salespeople more apt to survive the bad times. Dealerships HIRE MORE SALESPEOPLE. Commissioned salespeople in car stores not only cost the business virtually -nothing- to keep, they also take business away from each other which reduces overall compensation. For example, if a salesman at my store can break the magical 15 car barrier, they will make a relatively great check somewhere between 5k-9k (superstars selling 20-30/month are a whole other ball of wax and earn 100k+/year). If they fall below 15, they can expect 1k (minimum wage for 40 hours/week) through approximately 3k. The way they prevent salespeople from hitting the sweet spot and making a good living, is by reducing the amount of chances they get to make a sale. They add 5 salespeople to an already crowded floor, spread the deals thinner and overall compensation goes down.
The trick for the management is to walk the edge of the knife between your good long-time salespeople staying (at reduced pay) or quitting hoping for greener pastures. Sad thing right now is, everyone knows it’s not greener across the street. Management recently ran an ad for salespeople and in the last week or so I’ve seen -dozens- of salespeople applying in person. It’s a little scary.
Dark days aplenty ahead…..
Last night, while I was flossing my teeth, I took a good look at the dispenser and got to thinking whether or not we really need much of the fancy plastic packaging we take for granted. I mean, I’d be willing to buy floss and other items in rolls wrapped in cellophane or paper and cut it myself. My point, and I do have one, is that there is so much plastic stuff out there that isn’t necessary and it comes from petroleum and just ends up being tossed out. Of course, if any resolutions were proposed to eliminate unnecessary packaging, the packaging industry would have their lobbyists howling on Capitol Hill. Dang. The more they talk about drilling offshore, the more I feel like not flossing my teeth.
I agree 100%
(Cat Stevens - Where do the Children play?)
Well I think it’s fine, building jumbo planes.
Or taking a ride on a cosmic train.
Switch on summer from a slot machine.
Yes, get what you want to if you want, ’cause you can get anything.
I know we’ve come a long way,
We’re changing day to day,
But tell me, where do the children play?
Wow, Bob, thanks for the riff there. Cat was one of my faves back in the day and that was a great song. A poet and a gentleman and that’s the way I prefer to remember him.
still have his song books
went scuslim and is trying to come back
Oh puhleasss. Ben can we keep the hate posts off this board. Truly tasteless.
You think that`s hate. Get a life!!
You think it’s not? Move out of South Caroliney and spend some time in the real world.
taxmeupthebooty posted:
“went scuslim and is trying to come back”
Lane from s.c. posted:
“You think that`s hate. Get a life!!”
A perfect example of fear, ignorance, and outright hatred. Pathetic.
Spooky - I woke up this morning with ‘My Lady D’Arbanville’ going through my head….
Nothing like a meme for cutting through the Time/Space continuum
Allah Akbar
I’ve thought about excess packing for a long time because it really bugs me. I’ve concluded that it serves two main purposes: ease of shipping and display and shoplifting deterent. I’m not sure how well it meets the second.
I agree about the wasteful packaging.
Fortunately my area has a pretty fantastic recycling program, so that helps out somewhat. Unfortunately most areas of the country don’t have very good recycling programs.
I am seeing more and more people carrying their own bags into stores these days. Its like a glimmer of hope for me.
“Last night, while I was flossing my teeth, I took a good look at the dispenser and got to thinking whether or not we really need much of the fancy plastic packaging we take for granted.”
Actually you’ll find it refreshing after you live in a poor country where everything is boot-legged or generic. Plain packaging that isn’t sealed against tampering, says 50-ft of floss but 41-ft delivered, etc., which leads one to the conclusion that out there, it’s man against man whereas here it’s the other way around.
“and just ends up being tossed out.”
Exporting trash / plastic to China has had the largest growth of anything in the last 4 years, what do they know that we don’t?
What they have that we don’t is ultra cheap labor which makes it economically feasable for the labor intensive sorting and catagorizing of various recycleable items found in trash.
The price of food 2007 - 2008
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?ContentID=230814
Most of that leaves a bitter taste, but this is sweet:
Bacon, Sliced, Lb: May 2007: 3.651, May 2008: 3.637, Change: -0.38%
Time to load up on bacon! Delicious, inflation fighting bacon! Mmm!
Come to think of it, I have seen a lot of ads for BOGO bacon lately…
I LOVE bacon! Bacon is like a religion at Chez Olympiagal.
I’m also fascinated to see that it is evidently the way to Mole Man’s heart, because his rhapsodizing bacon post is unlike purt’ near all his other posts. That is to say, joyous and ebullient, instead of like normal– grumpy and vaguely contemptuous.
Moley, send me your addy, I’ll FedEx you half a dozen packs of bacon. Super!
He’s too far away given those horrible fuel prices. Just go ahead and deliver it to BanteringBear who’s in the neighborhood. Thinly sliced will do just fine.
Several observations:
Being a parent of several kids, I spend a awful alot of time feeding endle$$ pits.. noticed yesterday big changes in the sizing of certain containers…example..the Edy’s ice cream containers have shrunk by about 1/4..you can even see the difference of the old containers next to the new ones that have come in..the same I noticed with other products from paper plates to even potato chip bags..Also noticing creeping up of prices of certain items on a WEEKLY basis of anywhere from 5 cents to as much as 50 cents..
Went into the local mall yesterday where Sharper Image is closing..huge signs screaming it and discounts..DEAD..not a soul caring..same with other stores advertising huge discounts ..one even had a huge portion of the store advertised at 75% off..YOU COULD HEAR THE CRICKETS..these are stores that use to be loaded with people crawling over each other to grab the sale items..
Sharper Image, God, what useless crap.
Friend bought one of those Sharper Image silent air cleaners that cost damned near the price of a BMW engine overhaul.
I asked her where that remarkable gadget was last time I was over and she said it was in the closet.
I asked her if she didn’t have to plug it IN for it to work ?
I got the SMALLEST piece of pie but chuckled all the way through supper
The Sharper Image contains NOTHING that anyone needs or wants. Its purely a place to throw away money. If you need a gadget or something you go to the Sony Style store, or buy online. Otherwise, everything at the Sharper Image is useless. Rotating tie racks, giant batman statue, massage chairs… Just utterly obscene.
Giant batman statue. LOL.
Restaurants are slowing down too. After spending a week with my mom recently, I’ve learned to like leftovers far more than I used to. Who knew?
not here in nyc- the hedgies,celebs, and eurotrash keep the serfs busy here
restaurants and bars are packed every night
some people just have money to burn
Food inflation will narrow the gap between eating out and eating in, at least until wages go up, and that ain’t happening. Of course fewere people have money to eat out so restaurants are still hurting.
Ann:
ive been saying and documenting this for almost 2 years, so when people lke you finally notice, the tide has turned….its struck middle american women….
All this food and oil inflation does have an upside. It should reduce medicare costs in the long run since people will be forced to walk/bike more and eat less. No other real way to motivate Americans…
Whenever consumers finally come to grips with the fact that they can’t continue spending more than they bring in, the overbuilding of retail space will become even more obvious than it is right now.
There are so many marginally profitable at best, un-necessary businesses out there that will be closing-up the shop as soon as their leases are up or closing-up before the end of their leases with the help of the Bankruptcy courts.
All I am saying is that if you have been waiting to make your own candle at the do-it-yourself candle shop- do it sooner rather than later.
We have sign spinners in my hood…for the Linen’n'Things stores which are closing. Meanwhile, the Wal-mart next door is expanding to a Supercenter.
Maybe someday soon everyone will be living in the local Wal-mart.
The greeters will be saying:
“Welcome to Walmart, pull up a cot…make yourself at home!”
It costs about 130 dollars, but we bought a cuisinart 2 qt ice cream maker and its great. We make ultra premium ice cream - cream, milk, fruit and flavoring, and sugar - that would cost $4.00 a pint - for about $5.00 for 2 quarts. It’s wonderful and you can control the ingredients. Our favorite is mango. LUSCIOUS!
The machine paid for itself in the first 6 months.
Mmmmmm…..Mango.
you got a brand to recommend?
I like our Cuisinart “2 qt yoghurt-sorbet & ice cream maker” Very simple to use, easy to clean, and makes great ice cream!
I’m going to have to scope that one out. Thx!
Do you know if kids like the icecream from the cuisinart?
My son seems to think its pretty tasty. His favorite is the vanilla.
bob,
My grandfather made home made ice cream with the old fashioned ice cream maker and all of us kids loved the ice cream.
Old fashioned ice cream is the best. And it even tastes better cause, as dad used to demand ( military ya know) you can’t have any ice cream unless you spend time cranking the handle.
Another Sizing issue is, ever notice, or if you haven´t,start.
Toilet paper. Seems to disappear alot faster than a few yrs ago.
Are the rolls rolled less taught, therefore less paper¿
Are the rolls of paper made with less paper-cotton per squ inch¿
Friends were all just wondering about size of packages getting smaller, prices going up regardless, and TP going way to fast.
Always changing the roll, unless you are a guy. hehe
16081 Orange Blvd.
Loxahatchee Fl. [ western Palm Beach County ]
Sep. 03 $215,000
April 06 $354,000
for sale now $150,000
owner U.S. Bank Corp.
And they want the banks to take a 15% haircut before they turn these homes over to the taxpayer.
SKF going off near 150. I can’t remember who it was here that said the long game on that was over at 100
You can thank me for that, (150). I sold half my WM puts yesterday. That’s a sure signal for further meltdown of the financials.
I bought wm stock. ditto
I like em ugly though
oh, hahah. I see they just hit my bid at 4.97 for 5000 more
Any technical trigger for going long? I see nothing. I understand the idea of the buyout ala CFC. Was there no concrete tech indicator before that happened.
I was planning on looking for dried up volume before attempting to go long for the scalp.
No. Just bottom fishing. There wasn’t any technical reason to buy BSC at 3 either
2.5M block just went off at 5.04
1K for half an hour’s hold. Beats working for a living.
well wm is certainly ugly
good luck
that skf is on meth this week
I’ve had such a run on that I’m going to leave it alone for awhile now unless I see some nobrainers (like the one on Wednesday a.m.)
LOL! I had a vision of your schedule D equating in length to War & Peace.
Well, it wasn’t me who said SKF was over, but I did say that I thought long UYG at about 30 was a great play. Man, the pain I am feeling right now…
I still think that the theory is right, I was just way too early (cost avging my way down). The Fed has proven that they will backstop the banks, even from making incredibly stupid decisions. I just don’t see the banks all going out of business and having a financial Armageddon because of this housing mess. I think that the banks will continue to pass the garbage onto the federal reserve (via FRE, FNM, and whatever else they come up with) who will just eat the loss.
Those who continue to push the banks down, imho, are now betting on a financial system collapse. As in, back to wheel barrels of gold and trading horses for food kind of collapse. I just don’t see that in the cards; and frankly, if it happens, losing some cash on UYG will be the least of my problems.
Again, IMHO, although I would be interested to hear what others think.
My long SKF position might be inhibiting my vision, but here goes: I don’t see how banks/financials are going to rise until their balance sheets get purged. They might pop on any rescue move by the Fed (and I’m sure txchick will be there and win another diamond tiara from the proceeds) but it will only be a pop.
There is only one way to run a solid business, which is to run a solid business. That’s not a profound thought, but it’s been forgotten and needs to be re-remembered.
Well, I’m just as guilty, my long UYG is impairing my vision as well.
I agree; but I also think, at these levels, that there’s been an over reaction to the downside. We all know the paper these banks hold is worth crap; however, the Fed is allowing them to offload more and more of it on the GSEs, which I think is really the way out of this mess. They will hold the garbage, get loans against it, and pawn it off before it explodes whenever possible.
I guess my main thesis is, at these levels, the banks are priced to fail. The Fed has shown that they will not allow that to happen. So, IMHO, the pricing is incorrect; which is why I am long. I certainly agree that the banks are in trouble, and that there is going to be much pain ahead. I just don’t think that the financial system is going to collapse.
However, all that said, I thought SKF was expensive at 110, and boy, was I ever wrong!
You’re absolutely right, the banks have been running a flawed business model for some time now. And with almost any other industry, I would be there right next to you on the “short” side. However, this industry is protected by the govt; I just don’t think that, no matter how badly they are run, they will be allowed to fail.
I agree with you. There will probably be a few failures, maybe one marquee one but by and large, we’ll muddle through this.
My ha’ pennies worth. Even if the banks stay solvent, they will never be able to make money to justify the PE ratio greater than 8. Since banking is a traditionally conservative field, the leveraging banks did for the last 8 yrs are gone forever. This means that banks will be worth around 0.8X book value.
Hoz basically beat me to it… and I would point out 0.8x of purged book value.
I just don’t think that, no matter how badly they are run, they will be allowed to fail.
Your reasoning makes sense to me, but I note the shareholders may well be thrown to the lions in the process.
Regardless, it will be interesting to watch it unfold.
they’re already being thrown to the lions. look at some of the deals being done
banks = the new telecom
banks = the new telecom
Couldn’t agree more. And haven’t lived the telecom meltdown up-close-and-personal is why I think that we have only hit the first stage.
But to MF’s point above, the gov’t stayed out of telecom and won’t stay out of banking, so we have big differences for this situation. Who knows how it will be played out.
Knew that this was coming…
Investors shunning region’s bank stocks
Wisconsin AFRAID of it’s own Banks
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=764397
And haven’t lived make that “And having lived”. Time for coffee.
so, inversely, are telecoms the new banks?
they’ve been a bear market for amost 9 years now
I think it’s going to be a different dynamic.
Telecoms had big balance sheets, no real biz model. (I’m looking at you SCMR.) Banks have defunct balance sheets, but a good model.
OTOH, both have big arrogant leaders who won’t give in to consolidation. But the Fed can put a gun to people’s heads and force mergers, where that doesn’t happen in telecom. Otherwise, Pat would cut her hair.
Time to short? Narrowly escaped the last one
Holding a little SRS from Wednesday. Probably jinxing myself here, however, looking for a Friday sell off.
I need therapy. I sold my SRS and SKF early this week.
Take two hefeweisen and call me in the morning.
I am praying my SRS helps balance out the carnage in the rest of the portfolio.
Anyone see Cramer last night on NBC Nightly News calling a bottom to the housing bust in a year? Also he’s calling for that govmint “housing package” to go through. If it does, I hope he’s the first to get his ‘nads caught in the internet privacy ringer, if he’s purchased anything at all online.
He was saying on RM in December of ‘06 that it was time to get back into housing and that he was buying back all the RE he had allegedly sold.
He’s a clown. That has been long established.
Anyone see Cramer last night on NBC Nightly News calling a bottom to the housing bust in a year?
We can conclude one thing: Housing might recover tomorrow, or in 2-200 years, but the one time that it absolutely stands no chance of recovery is one year.
Tx
Clowns do not damage one’s net worth. Do not disparage clowns by comparing Mr. Cramer to the fine jobs that most clowns perform.
Good one, hoz. ROTFLMAO.
My daughter is scared to death of clowns, so I think the comparison is apt.
” privacy ringer,”
I meant “wringer”. Sheesh.
Today is Bill Gate’s last day as head of Microsoft?
I wonder if he gets retiree medical insurance.
Think anyone will actually notice?
I just heard a first. A RE agent (in NJ) refused to re-list a condo because the sellers wouldn’t lower their price. I suppose that’s one way to reduce inventories…
It makes sense. If they have no intention of selling it, he’s wasting his time.
Predicted on this blog long ago: The realtors are going to be the ones that push prices down, because they need to eat.
This is starting to happen in the “it can’t happen here” parts of the Alt-A Bay.
sf jack,
I’ve seen a few houses here on the peninsula below the 500k mark. Not the best looking houses, the cracks are appearing.
You can find them below 400k on the pennisula.
You want to see a preview? Go look at the east side of Menlo Park.
It’s littered with houses listed at 648k for months dropping to 389k. There will be support there for awhile. I expect them to drop down to 200k by 2010.
The rest of the bay area will follow along, sputtering “but it’s DIFFERENT here!” the whole way.
and his money since he has advertising and fuel costs to try to sell it.
Its happening all over. Average advertising cost listing a property is over $1k. Avg time talking with the morons, checking the property, and other things, is well over 30 hours in a slow market.
If you know the seller wont accept reasonable offers, dump them. Welcome to Craigslist.
There will be another less smart GF UHS out there ready to list it at wishing price. Of that I am certain.
However, good for that one realtor to dump the seller.
Homebuilders Get Demolished
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/tol-hov-len-housing-New-York/index/a/17764
So what’s in store for today?
Snapback rally or black swan?
Slight pressure on the upside because of bargain shoppers with rosey glasses. I believe we will hit a 10 pecent lower than yesterday’s close mark in August. I might pick some up at that time.
The Dow futures are rising because “HEY everyones spending again!” Are people so dumb that they can’t understand a one time government payment spike does not mean that all is well in Wonderland again - suddenly - or is it just blind desperation and grasping at straws…?
Blind desperation and grasping at straws - its just can’t really be as bad as its starting to seem?
It just can’t…
It just can’t…
It just can’t…
People are running scared, and as nothing makes any sense anymore, they are still grasping at what they know, which isn’t much.
Zillow says housing less affordable…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRDMJGbadcWY&refer=home
Asia next. This would be bad. Speaking as someone with a background in Asian history, economies, and political economy, a meltdown in markets there is not only possible, but likely when you consider that their whole focus is on low cost export.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aaFNbOUhA2DQ&refer=home
I guess you are not a big adherent of the decoupling theory, given that the U.S. is a key import market for Asia?
Ummm… No… Asia is absolutely dependent on us. Where we go, so goes Asia. JMHO.
Well, off to “The Walk”.
Not true. If US imports from Japan drop 20%, Japans GDP drops 0.5%. China is going to continue to export to the US, we get our packaged food products from China as well as the WalMart world of goods. The rest of Asia exports to China and Chinas major trading partner is the Euro nations.
A slowdown in the US hits the Euro nations hardest. Not Asia, India, Africa or South America.
You have a point, but since many Japanese export products are manufactured in other Asian countries, a 20% decline in American imports means a large decline in manufacturing activity in most of these countries which can’t ride it out as well as Japan.
Well, off to “The Walk”.
Haaa haaa…
Bye bye DOW.
China’s exports to the US have declined slightly, but exports to the Middle East and other oil rich countries like Russia are way up.
Speaking of Russia, recently heard there are more than aLOT ( don’t recall the #) of billionaires who are Russians living in Russia.
I know, redundant, but what I am trying to ask is, are those Russian billionaires allowed to move that money freely outside of the country?
I am serious. It would seem with their roughly still communist gov-Putin, would keep it inside. Or not.
Just wondering.
Thanks.
After-tax incomes and spending show big gains
The big increase in after-tax incomes based on the surge in stimulus payments pushed the personal savings rate to 5 percent, the highest level since May 1995. Personal savings represent the amount of after-tax income consumers have left after deducting their spending for the month.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080627/economy.html
can someone pleeeease tell me how they get this information? or how they come to this conclusion?
From “One Nutted Smirking Chimps) GS15 stooges who don’t include the cost of energy and fuel regarding inflation.
House prices are a mute point. Buy BIG guns in the local “Hood” wherever that might be. Everyone has the option even if you live in Bangor, Maine. Massive body tatoos are a given to get into the “Game,” though.
Bid long on vegtable seeds.
KB Home posts deeper loss
KB reported a net loss of $255.9 million, or $3.30 per share, in its second quarter, compared with a loss of $148.7 million, or $1.93 per share, last year.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080627/kbhome_results.html?.v=3
KB Home 2Q loss widens on sales slump, charges
Revenue plunged to $639.1 million from $1.41 billion in the year-ago period. The decline was driven by lower housing and land sale revenues, the builder said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080627/earns_kb_home.html?.v=4
Fifth Third halts loans for commercial property
By GARY T. PAKULSKI
BLADE BUSINESS WRITER
“…The Cincinnati-headquartered bank, which competitors say provides up to $100 million annually in financing for apartments, offices, and other projects in the Toledo area, has stopped, at least temporarily, making most loans for the construction and purchase of commercial properties.
As part of an effort to contain problems with bad loans, Fifth Third “suspended all new developer and non-owner-occupied commercial property lending,” top corporate executives told investors in a presentation last week. A copy of the presentation was filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission….”
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080626/BUSINESS05/806260350/0/BUSINESS02
5/3 Bank
For every $5 they lent out to real estate construction, they lost $3.
Backwards Private for every $3 they loaned out , they lost $5.
Bad looking corp’se either way.
Impressive. I’m wondering why a bank won’t make reasonably low risk loans and simply hold on to them…unless they are seeing a wave of upcoming defaults related to the economy, or more trouble selling commercial paper (likely both). Capitulation time?
There’s a great book written about 100 years ago, called “My Adventures With Your Money”, and that’s exactly what the banks have perpetrated, currently.
1st National Bank Of Potemkin Village (construction loans division)
Locations in all 50 States
mentioned to me this a.m. as a call prospect. I’m looking at it
That’s my bank, though it’s my bank because they bought out my smaller locally owned bank a few years back. Fifth Third has a big regional presence in OH, IN, KY, and IL.
I keep an eye on the stock without trying to be too high-strung about it. It’s lost 50% of its value in the past couple of months.
that’s how I ended up at WAMU. They bought my miserable little local bank. I like WAMU as a bank.
WAMU has been very good to me. A most wonderful short. Still shorting it.
I made a few bucks flipping it this a.m. The telecom analogy that ran through my head made me change my mind about holding on.
Fed must beware inflation risks
“…Price rises, meanwhile, are cause for nervousness. Public surveys of inflationary expectations, although not that reliable, have risen sharply; implied expectations in the bond markets are not so high, but hard to interpret because of a flight to the safety of Treasury bonds. The Fed should not be overconfident about its ability to tame expectations if they get out of control.
There is also an international dimension to inflation: low Fed rates mean that countries with currencies pegged to the dollar have to choose between exchange rate appreciation and high domestic inflation. So far they have accepted the latter – and stoked up global inflation in the process – but another risk is that they reverse course and allow the dollar to fall….”
FT
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d725a38c-43ab-11dd-842e-0000779fd2ac.html
A rare editorial that blasts the Federal Reserve policies in the FT, who woulda thunk.
Hoz, I know I’ll be burned at the stake for saying it, but I think a period of inflation and recession will actually be good for us. I no longer care what the Fed does, because in the end nothing they can do will change anything in the short term while the shakeout is happening. They are more interested in saving the big banks.
There was so much financial excess the past few years that tough economic times will lead to price deflation, increased saving, more risk aversion and hopefully a lot less outlandish resource consumption, from an individual level to government.
“I know I’ll be burned at the stake for saying it”
not by me, i agree with your view.
“Loan of Arc”
“Hoz, I know I’ll be burned at the stake for saying it, but I think a period of inflation and recession will actually be good for us…”
14+ % mortgage rates ..for 14 months = “Kill the Beast!”
Then everyone can join in and help “rebuild” the village…whistle while you work, whistle why you work…the sun will come out tomorrow…;-)
There was so much financial excess the past few years that tough economic times will lead to price deflation
I don’t think the things that people actually need to buy are going to get cheaper in USD terms (that’s in aggregate, individual components such as oil prices etc may wobble).
But the stuff they don’t need, yes. And asset prices are already being clobbered of course.
‘Hoz, I know I’ll be burned at the stake for saying it, but I think a period of inflation and recession will actually be good for us.’
No matches or pitchforks from me.
Tar and feather and then burn you at the stake for daring to suggest the Federal Reserve does not know how to control the economy and keep prices stable or maybe even stabile.
LOL
Sidebar article suggests the next fed rate move may be up. Is this the news that has Wall Street’s bull herd in stampede mode?
Bernanke keeps rate rise options open
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: June 26 2008 00:03 | Last updated: June 26 2008 00:03
Wednesday’s statement by the Federal Reserve does not say that the US central bank now sees the risks to inflation as greater than the risks to growth – but it makes clear the balance of risks has moved in this direction.
It suggests Fed officials think the next move in US interest rates will very likely be up. But it leaves open the question of how soon and how quickly they will move.
Went to the local gas station yesterday at a time of day where for the last 3 years you’d be waiting 5 minutes or longer just to pull up to a pump (therefore I go at 6m) and most pumps were available; things were almost deserted. The fellow behind me (elderly, nicely groomed hispanic man) started up a conversation by saying that gas pricing was high only because of the falling US dollar and that he felt it was time to get rid of his paid off 12 year old van for a more gas efficient smaller car, probably a Honda or Toyota, but not an expensive hybrid.
Other notes: Costco and WalMart both had lots of traffic. Carmel has more available commercial space available as more businesses are moving out. Some stores were closed for remodel which seemed odd during tourist season.
I am fairly sure my parents cute little house decoration store in Carmel (which I said was a terrible idea!) is toast. Specuvestors who did not listen when I suggested (3 years ago) they get out. I was too “doom and gloom.” This when stepmom asked about Phoenix and Arizona in general. Tried to get them to read Ben, but….
Dad is a great retailer, but when your market goes away, it can be tough. Wonder if commercial space vendors will lower or rents or wait for the next FR?
Commercial leases are too expensive right now due to all the candle, doggy spa’s etc. I think people will be trying to unload their businesses just to get out from under their overpriced leases. But if people overpaid for commercial realestate are they not stuck in the same situation as accidental SFR landords. They need wishing prices commercial lease to cover the mortgage.
I haven’t been in Walmart when it was actuallu crowded in weeks. And I go all times of the day.
Apparently the good cheer brought on by stimulus has not kicked in just yet.
Consumers extremely gloomy, UMich survey says.
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 10:03 a.m. EDT June 27, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. consumers grew more pessimistic in June, according to a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. The consumer sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June from 59.6 in May and 56.6 in mid-June. It’s the lowest since 1980 and the third-lowest reading in the 56-year history of the survey.
UMich - Go Blue!
(I went to school there, and I am proud)
Let’s see, I think txchich yesterday suggested that professor bear should include Mother Jones’ perspective on Phil and Wendy Gramm’s role in our economy.
How about Texas Observer?
http://www.texasobserver.org/article.php?aid=2767
quote:
University of Texas economist James Galbraith says Gramm is “not against government at all. His career has been finding ways to make money for his friends. It’s a predator relationship. [Government] is his food supply.”
yes, did they mention that Bill and Hill have been on the teat of one govermnent or another for 30 years?
I thought we had moved on to dissin’ the Messiah now?
Right after they mentioned McCain being on the govt tit for the last 30 years. Glass houses and all that.
at least he served his country
But did any of the other republicans¿
Count em on one hand or less.
You’re wasting you time…you have to use glib tolerance with “born again” “young republicans” … bashing with the sledge hammer on froggy’s head… only makes them more goofy.
Phil Gramm never had a job in the private sector until he was 60(lobbyist for UBS).
He either worked for the State of Georgia, State of Texas(Texas A&M) or the Federal government his entire life.
His wife however, got plenty of private sector experience on the board of directors of Enron(and of course had to pony up $13 million to clear those pesky insider trading issues and pay $168 million to the University of California (I’m sure Phil really hates that evil California state government now!)).
What a great article! That article was written by one of those perpetually bitter Democrat journalists who believe that Texas Democrats deserve the power they had back in the 60’s and 70’s. I’m not a McCain fan, but I love Phil Gramm. Gramm was responsible for the largest tax cuts in American history - anyone remember the 1986 Gramm Rudman tax cuts? Gramm was a key player in getting Reagan’s economic policies passed in Congress.
Well, woke up, made a cuppa mud, read the bits bucket, and it occurred to me - people used to take drugs to get them hyped, cocaine, that sorta thing, but now it’s Prozac for everyone.
Man, I’m wondering what JWhite’s walk this morning will bring, yesterday would be hard to top. Easy there, Buddy.
it occurred to me - people used to take drugs to get them hyped, cocaine, that sorta thing, but now it’s Prozac for everyone.
Are you advocating a return to the Snow Era?
LOL - no, the Slow Era.
It was a short one today, market was only down 60 points. I’m thinking I’m gonna have to get a costume! (JW busily thumbs through the “Acme Superhero Costume Catalogue”… Hmmm, I like this one with the chartreuse cape - it looks really nice with the Prada boots… Wonder what it costs? WHOA!!!! Wonder if they have a union card discount…) (mumbling grows louder and more distracted)…
Price shouldn’t be a problem since you turned all your wife’s jewelry into lead…how did that go???
Mmmmmm - not so good… Kept turning back into AU. I’m gonna have to keep working on it. Maybe if I made everything REALLY thin with a mallet, it would be easier? YEA!!! I’m gonna try that! Thanks Utah!
Back from “The Walk”. A short one today, I’ve got to cut a lot of grass this afternoon. It’s getting pretty hot out there, even in the mornings. A couple of houses (both without signage) have sold in the neighborhood. I suspect both of them were shortsales since they were in pretty unkept shape. I’m going to have to find out what they sold for.
JW, the guys that dress in really bad “Blues Brothers” suits…leased the places…that telescope in the window isn’t for bird watching, oh and they are dressed in “Hawaiian shirts” & sporting crocs these days ….that Ford Crown Victoria in the driveway, notice ALL the windows are black tinted, kinda stands out don’t it?
Actually it’s a Dodge Charger, and they’re wearing golf shirts and khakis. They also appear to have a minivan with antenna sprouting everywhere. It reads ” Comcast” on the side. First one I’ve ever seen with a revolving dish on the top!
JW, listen… THOSE guys are actually from Cheney’s “Shadow Gov’t Office” …man you’re really in bigger trouble than you think!
Well, they DO have Haliburton golf hats on…
Naw, the one you need to look out for is the van with Flowers By Irene painted on the side with all the widows sporting a dark tint.
Stars End
“I’ve got to cut a lot of grass this afternoon.”
Push mower or ride on mower?
Investors wanna know.
“Push”, better exercise that way. The mowing event is being preceeded by the “Friday Cleaning Event”. It will be followed by the “Developmental Psych Test” study event this evening. I’m done with most of my business projects right now (thank heavens) and only have to monitor one online class…
What she was really asking, JW, is are you WALKING around out there while mowing…
OHHHHHHH!!! Well, that proves that my superpowers don’t include telekinesis!!!
or is it ESP?… I guess I’m the “Rainman” of superheros…
trying a little short skf at 149.33 stop at +1 over that
I shorted at 149.52 and got trailing stopped out at 149.05. That bronco bucks too much for me.
Back short at 151.32. PPT appeared to start warming up in the bullpen right around 2 EDT.
And out for $2 in about 8 minutes. Just paid for the Sony HD super-compact camcorder I’ve been eyeing.
Have a feeling the indexes will bounce upwards around July 4th. Need a psychic to verify.
Talked to an Aspen friend last night. Guess what - there’s a growing problem in the Roaring Fork Valley - squatters!
Squatters in the Aspen area! You can’t have squatters w/o empty houses.
Lostie,
Maybe the squatters brought their own tents
They’ve been doing that for years already, camping out in the national forest. That has also been an ongoing problem. Gotta love Aspen.
Consumer sentiment continues to slide - even with rebate checks being spent.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/consumers-descend-further-economic-funk/story.aspx?guid=%7BB55D733A%2D1F01%2D4B26%2DA3A2%2D1C51D30B5C94%7D
Some economists have reportedly begun to suspect that the effect of rebate checks may only be temporary (d’oh!).
I got an actual letter in the mail telling me I get a real check.
SD bloggers, let’s pool our stimmy and buy a dry goods biz.
Or, a few wonderful cases of wine, cheese and chocolate.
Let’s party our way out of the gloom. It worked in the 70’s.
Hey, let’s do it! I’m trying to figure out a way to make those little umbrella things you put into your drinks so that they are edible…& “organic”
Oh, you can eat the umbrella in the drink. If you’re drunk enough. I don’t put anything; no decorations, no ornaments, in or proximate to any drink or other foodstuffs, if it cannot be consumed to good effect. I learned that the hard way, after a few instructive events.
I would suggest that you decorate your food with flowers, instead! Edible flowers, of course, no belladonna or daffodils or azaleas etc.
I always garnish with rose petals, calendula, sunflower petals, tulips petals…always a great reaction from guests.
‘I would suggest that you decorate your food with flowers, instead!’
Besides which, I forgot to add, flowers have another terrific bonus–they usually don’t have little dyed wooden sticks lurking inside them.
If we don’t get stimulus checks, can we be invited to the party like the poor family everybody feels sorry for?
“The moment of clarity”…
Fed aided Wall Street to avert “contagion”
The Fed’s financial lifeline in JP Morgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns was subsequently changed to $29 billion and — most recently — to $28.82 billion.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080627/fed_credit_crisis.html
this may be a knuckle head question, but does anyone know why the price keeps changing?
Landpire:
The living unsold, that walks amongst us.
The only way to kill them is to put the stake of a real estate sign, through their heart of darkness.
Lad, California smoke here now, can’t see much towards the horizons, smoggy looking, can’t see the Swell (20 miles). Must be bad out your way.
It’s a time to stay indoors really nasty, a Beige World.
And as an added bonus, California simply doesn’t have the resources to fight 700 fires, with more dry lightning strikes expected this weekend.
Soup. Total soup here in S. Sierras.
Visibility, usually 90+ miles is <1. Looks like downtown LA circa 1957.
Southeastern breeze is kicking up, however, so look out Nevada.
Question of the day: Is HBB a cult?
A poster on the BitsB yest. made that claim. Is Ben a cult hero?
Well, IF PB suggests a “National” gathering at a rented house in Rancho Santa Fe…then I’d have to say… yes, Lost we’re in a cult, but save yourself, don’t drink the koolaide, we need someone to tell the real real world ….what really happened.
Are you suggesting that would be ME???
The Queen of Hyperbole??
hey, it rhymes, maybe I’m missing out here on some hidden talent I didn’t know I had…
OK, wanna hear a poem?
A wild turkey,
I want to be.
I’ll hang around,
Close to the ground.
I’ll eat wild berries,
And smoke chokecherries.
To squat and gobble,
My only jobble.
(Did you notice the part about squatting?
)
Squat and Gobble was a restaurant once in Cedaredge, Colorado.
Geez, I amaze myself at how I can entertain myself sometimes, like a little kid, thanks for being so patient, Ben.
Never been a fan of bunkbeds. Or funny space suits.
.
Dunno… Is it? (JW shifts his tinfoil helmet to scratch his head with the clothes hanger antenna…) I don’t think so…
LOL!!
What’s so funny Utah? I really don’t think this is anywhere near a cult… (adjusts Dr Demento sunglasses which stop government mind control rays). To many parnoid people around here…
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-27 08:53:07
Question of the day: Is HBB a cult?
‘A poster on the BitsB yest. made that claim. Is Ben a cult hero?’
Well, I sometimes pray to him to make the sun come out, find my keys, and/or win the lottery. Does that mean anything? Don’t all of you do that too?
OK, so why would that make it a cult? I mean, why? Sounds perfectly normal to me.
“…if you believe in it, it is a religion or perhaps ‘the’ religion;
and if you do not care one way or another about it, it is a sect;
but if you fear and hate it, it is a cult.” Leo Pfeffer.
“A cult is a church down the street from your church.” Anon
How ’bout the nomad inn?
I am Nomad.
That you, Nemo??
to make the sun come out, find my keys, and/or win the lottery.
Me too. So far he’s 2 for 3.
UH OH Mail came, landlord has a registered letter to sign for from Washington Mutual, suprised it came here in Fl. Wamu knows they`ve been in N.Y. for almost 3 years.
Quick, send 19.95 to Lost In Utah for her important guide “Everything you ever wanted to know about Squatting, but were afraid to ask!”
Learn valuable tips on how to use propane stoves indoors, and how to make a bed out of pilfered furniture blankets!
Act now! You can’t afford to wait!
Hey, Bubs, you just got yourself hired for my newly opened PR job. but next time mention the bonus video that goes along with the book - free, of course:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_adKFJgOcGs
(it doesn’t have anything to do with squatting, rather, with rolling…)
Ha ha! My dogs do that, too! Except one of them likes to jump in the bed and burrow under the covers to do it.
Talk about sleeping in a wet spot. O___O
Except one of them likes to jump in the bed and burrow under the covers to do it.
ah, one of my tribe…
From sltrib dot com: (Utah goes to 4 day week to save energy)
Beginning in early August, Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. is directing the state go to a 10-hour, four-day week for many state agencies. Hours of operation will be extended from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday through Thursday.
The change means the Division of Motor Vehicles, Division of Natural Resources and other state offices will shut down on Friday, along with many other offices that deliver services to residents.
But essential workers - for example, highway patrol troopers, Corrections officers and state parks - will not be affected, although their administration offices will close. Utah courts, public schools and colleges will not change, nor will the Governor’s Office.
The goal, Huntsman said, is to help conserve energy by not heating and cooling buildings, reduce gas consumption for commuters, and provide an incentive for state workers that could be a recruiting tool.
Utah is the first state in the nation to make the change on such a large scale, although other states, local governments and the federal government have made the change on a smaller scale.
Huntsman said he thinks the change will encourage residents to take advantage of services online and employees to telecommute in cases where it is practical.
Thurston co. development services recently lost an hour. They close at 4 now. I surveyed their new little sign with great satisfaction, last time I was in there. Ah, the implications!
What frosts my cocoa puffs is that when you pay your utility bill by phone/automated-online, they charge an extra $3.97 + but not if you send your check in by mail ¿?????
I thought they wanted things to be more automated and supposedly it was cheaper. Not.
Pensioners pulling their money out of Monterey county development
http://www.montereyherald.com/ci_9716655?source=most_viewed
aother from sltrib dot com:
Judge OKs Zions’ $25.3M bid for SunCrest
Zions Bank now owns the 3,000-plus acre SunCrest project atop Draper’s Traverse Ridge.
A judge late Thursday afternoon approved the bank’s $25.3 million bid for the bankrupt property despite a long list of concerns from an attorney who argued that the property could garner more cash and better repay its investors.
Though he acknowledged that the mountaintop project’s value has likely declined in the midst of a bad housing market, creditors’ attorney David Leta argued SunCrest had surely not lost $25 million over the six months since a December 2007 appraisal, which pegged the scenic property at $51.6 million.
Leta represented a group of lenders that, like Zions Bank, loaned the now-belly-up SunCrest LLC developer millions of dollars to buy and develop a master plan for the scenic community. He asked Judge William Thurman to reject the sale and pursue a foreclosure sale process, saying the whole Chapter 11 sale has been “questionable” and “hasty.”
SunCrest consultant Bruce Baird testified that a foreclosure sale could mean the SunCrest Clubhouse would never open, the SunCrest Market would close shop, and it could mean the demise of the entire mountaintop project.
Leta added that the Zions purchase price was not a fair-market value and it allows the bank to flip the property and make money for itself while leaving out other lenders.
That’s the fanciest way of beating around the bush, that Zions Bank was the only bidder @ the courtroom steps, and they had lent SunCrest the long green, hadn’t they?
I know a big-time east coast mortgage broker. In 5 years he went from selling used cars to living large in a 7000 square foot house, with fancy cars, a maid, European vacations, ownership of over a month’s worth of Disney timeshares, kids in private schools, and so forth — the usual “look at me, I’m rich!” crap.
Of course, there were rumors that he had to “help” his clients to get loans, even creating paperwork on the fly if needed. None of the rumors were ever substantiated and I don’t think that the FBI is investigating him yet. I’m sure that someone will spill the beans on him sooner or later.
Do you think that he put any money away during the good times? Of course not.
His wife was complaining that the house has 5 A/C units, implying that utility bills were killing them. They live in the mid-Atlantic region, where you pay for heat or air conditioning 10 months out of the year.
The monthly mortgage payment is (from what other relatives have told us) a staggering $18,000 (yes, that’s right, eighteen thousand dollars) and the house will soon be on the market. Time to downsize.
The kids won’t be going back to their private schools in the fall.
Oh my.
“They live in the mid-Atlantic region, where you pay for heat or air conditioning 10 months out of the year.”
I don’t have AC. Heat isn’t that expensive with a rowhouse, an electronic themostat, and big windows facing south. It runs twice a day — to heat things up before we wake up, and to heat things up before we get home.
I think if the Founding Fathers could see what wimps we are, they’d disown us.
Better sell those Disney timeshares.
I read somewhere about a supposed Disney contingency plan where oil to reach $160 a barrel. The concept being that with high fuel prices that attendance would plummet at Disneyworld in Orlando (Disneyland in Anaheil would not have this problem).
One of the contingencies was to sell Disneyworld to someone who would operate it under license. The story did not include the target sales price, but I also recall reading somewhere that it wouod cost $14 billion to replicate Disneyworld, and that price did not include the land (30+ square miles)
CNBC storm clouds ahead
calling it Son of the Credit Crunch
What`s that altA
SHANGHAI (AFP) - China’s foreign exchange reserves, by far the largest in the world, hit 1.80 trillion dollars at the end of May, state media reported Friday.
The figure represents an increase of 40.3 billion dollars for the month, down from 74.5 billion dollars recorded in the previous month, the China Securities Journal reported
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080627/bs_afp/chinaforexyuanreserves_080627050638;_ylt=AtTQjBO2sZ7ZpWJfxTas_U2mOrgF
36406 Geiger 93551
For you who have access to better, more update info:
Does this house show as pending, or recently closed escrow?
I think I may have found a squatting realtor.
“squatting Realtor” please, let’s not disrespect their capital letter.
As per Trulia:
Sold for $700,000 on Jun 5th, 2008
3 br 4 ba 4,591 sqft
Single-Family Home
Sorry, I pulled the trigger to soon on this one. Boy did that buyer get screwed. Nice house, but oy vey that’s way too much money!
oil of oy vey now $142/bbl
Very funny.
I was just dusting and heard a talking guest head on CNBC utter the fateful words “DON’T PANICK”…… OK… NOW I’m gonna panick!
Funny, I am serene today.
I feel balanced and pretty.
Perfume, chocolate, blue sapphire, and clean hair.
Monday will see me ugly.
“DON’T PANICK”
I have known musicians who (jokingly) scrawl that line in more difficult sections of orchestral scores, as a gift to future generations of performers.
By the way, did anybody see the piece on CNBC yesterday on how Fitch will no longer rate MBIA and Ambac at their request? I forgot to get the link, but that”s HUGE news… It isn’t good either.
Dow crosses into bear market territory
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080627/markets_stocks_dow.html
These days, not even the Japanese can afford Ramen Noodles.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a.cNnLCa3c1E&refer=home
“Hakata ramen, a specialty of Japan’s southern island of Kyushu, is popular for its firm, chewy noodles made with high- protein wheat flour milled from grain grown in the U.S., Canada and Australia. Higher global prices have hit noodle sellers hard.”
“Tampopo”
The best Japanese noodle movie, ever.
2 thumbs up~
ha ha hah what did you all do to this market????
I got to have a lunch date with someone who looks good in a speedo and I come back to this???
You still think Monday for the start of the summer rally?
I’m still in short for half my WM and some JPM. I closed my stops up a bit today but with this action I do not want to let them go to soon as they are really good producers at this point.
My major bullish indicator is that the MSM has decided it’s now a bear market. LOL
Just leaned a little agin it and it fell over, really not much offered and I asked where could I sell a few.
selling drying up, eh?
maybe we’ll get a bear stearns type thing over the weekend and put in a bottom with a big gap down
Your lips to God’s ears, tx. How ’bout we make it WAMU for good measure?
Shoots, Tx, was he WEARING a Speedo? Wow, at lunch even? Hows about a loincloth?
IBM
Armonk, NY
Essex Junction, VT
State officials say they’re being told the IBM plant in Essex Junction is laying off 180 people. Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development officials say they’re being told by the company that 110 regular positions are being eliminated along with 70 long-term supplemental positions. The state is activating its rapid response system to help former IBM employees find new jobs. The IBM Microelectronic Plant in Essex Junctions was once the state’s largest private employer. At its peak in 2001, Vermont’s IBM plant employed more than 8,000 people. IBM now employs about 5,500 people in Vermont.
Source: The Associated Press - June 24, 2008
This is not good. IBM has been the new GM for a couple of decades, when they layoff….
ouch - have a friend there… I did a student internship at IBM. big blue.
BLM has put a two year moratorium on solar projects for the US gubbmint. I would think you could short those stocks.
Voz - if you see this - My son just called me from Oregon where he is screwing off for another few years. His friends from Govt camp suggested he drive down to Tillamook. He went and when coming back called me to let me know, “it is just like Wisconsin, the cow smells, the dairy smells, the Carharts and the grass; I think a few of your friends were hanging out at the local watering hole.”
Hi all!
This is a repost from the Weekend Topic board:
Long time reader, first time poster.
I post quite a bit on MSN real estate boards where most people are very pro home buying, the markets will bounce back, etc. My question for those of you that have way more knowledge than I do:
Can you help me please explain why now is not a good time to buy because interest rates are at “historic lows”?
Interest rates will rise so some of these people who are sitting on the fence are ready to jump into the market before 2009 to fend off rising interest rates. I explained that if your house price goes down then that equates to lower property taxes and interest rates can always be refinanced. But most don’t seem to understand or care about those arguments. They look at the monthly payments alone. ugh! I am in O.C., CA by the way where we are finally seeing some prices drop but not at the rates I’d like.
Thanks,
genepha
Here is an example from the MSN board:
Just opened escrow on a house in Cerritos. $597k 3br/2ba 1520sf. I got it for $27k under the asking price (by going directly to the listing agent).
I still believe prices will continue to drop in most areas. But then the inevitable rate increase will negate the saving. I was going to wait for the end of 2008 but this house is located in such an ideal location that I just couldn’t pass up.
House of Cards
You thought the housing crisis was bad? You ain’t seen nothing yet.
The credit card industry (Visa, MasterCard, American Express, etc.) and the 10 banks that dominate the industry as the primary card issuers spend an estimated $2 billion a year in endless marketing worldwide. We are all bombarded with their solicitations and sales tie-ins and gimmicks. They know that they might only have a 2-3 percent return rate, but that more than pays the enormous costs. They have thus succeeded in supplying 1.5 billion cards to 158 million U.S. card holders. That averages to 10 cards per person. In the last few years, retailers, banks, a wide range of companies, sports teams, unions and even universities have launched specialized card programs. Like the car companies that discovered that they made more money on car loans than automobiles, the benefits of what’s been called “financialization” is obvious to more business sectors.
http://www.lacitybeat.com/cms/story/detail/house_of_cards/7181/