Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Builder incentives? “D.R. Horton’s Las Vegas Division will hold a ‘100 Under 200 Sale’ June 28 and 29. During the weekend event, the builder will offer 100 new homes priced below $200,000 with special incentives. Qualified buyers also may be eligible to participate in the FHA Nehemiah Down Payment Assistance program.”
“All Square neighborhoods are gated and feature floor plans from 1,071 to 1,400 square feet with two-car garages. Pricing begins from the mid-$170,000s. D.R. Horton’s Las Vegas division has an inventory of more than 100 homes ready for immediate move-in.”
Halted projects? “Sales agents for a large metro Atlanta homebuilder, Robert Harris Homes, were told Thursday to head home. Robert Harris Homes says on its Web site that Builder Magazine recognized the company in 2004 as one of the fastest-growing home builders. Prior to starting his Georgia business, founder Robert Harris had built more than 1,000 homes on the west coast of Florida, the company says.”
“‘I got an e-mail to pack up my stuff and leave,’ said Don Silverberg, a broker at the Arbor Walk subdivision in Acworth, one of about 18 local communities where Robert Harris Homes has built houses. ‘I’m going to take a little vacation and decide what to do.’”
Or nervous buyers? “It took Tim and Nikki Hartin 30 days to buy their first home, a duplex in south Harrisonburg. For the Hartins, who have been married for two years and moved from Staunton, being first-time homebuyers put them in an advantageous position given today’s housing market, said Keith May, owner of KlineMay Realty. ‘The first-time buyer is basically king of the market right now,’ May said.”
“A large part of determining realistic prices and financing comes from a real estate agent’s guidance, both May and Hartin said. The guidance was a ‘hallmark’ of the buying experience for the Hartins. ‘We came in knowing hardly anything,’ Hartin said.”
“‘I think the moment when we were putting the offer down we were the most nervous,’ Hartin said. ‘We knew that if they accepted it, that was it: We were buying a house.’”
Or protests? “The 40 or so protesters marching through East Liberty yesterday morning traveled only five blocks. But they’re hoping that the effort will be a step toward stopping the foreclosures that are throwing people out of their homes.”
“‘When he got the loan three years ago, it was an adjustable rate mortgage and they knew that and they were told it might go up,’ said ACORN spokeswoman Jennifer England. ‘But they were also told it might go down. And they expected [any change] would be within a few percentage points.’”
“The mortgage loan — taken out with First Franklin Bank, which was then owned by National City — originally cost the Abbotts $340 a month. ‘Within three years, it’s over $1,200 a month, not including taxes and fees,’ Ms. England said. ‘And he makes about $2,000 a month.’”
Lower prices? “Single-family homes off the island of Montreal are becoming harder to sell, in part because of high gas prices, and some homeowners are throwing in free cars and SUVs to entice potential buyers.”
“‘Off-island houses, like in Hudson or in the swank neighbourhoods of St. Lazare, are not selling,’ said Montreal real estate agent Laurie MacDonald.”
“Off-island home owner Dan Loiselle said his 4,000-square-foot home in St. Lazare, complete with an in-ground pool, has been on the market since 2005. The price has fallen to $795,000 from $925,000.”
“‘I’m not giving away a car. If someone can afford an $800,000 house, I don’t think a used car will make a big difference. But I have included a $2,500 gas card on top of the normal commission for the agent who sells my house,’ Loiselle said.”
“‘There was a big hoopla when these houses were first built’ and prices were ‘ridiculous,’ Middleton said. ‘The new prices just reflect market value, not rising gas prices.’”
“‘If we’re having trouble selling, it’s because less people are buying homes priced above half a million,’ Middleton said. ‘Many new development projects are building houses (priced) between $350,000 and $400,000.’”
A quick local ob then I got to get the California post ready. What I see here in Flagstaff is an almost certain wipe out in over million $ houses. Many are very nice and with good views. But there are just too many of them. There isn’t any affordable housing options, like the McMansion glut, that is already being turned into student rental housing. If you like to entertain and/or golf, there could be some bargains coming.
The other segment that is looking bad are condos and condo conversions. These will fill the affordability gap at some point. I expect whole properties to default, like in Florida and to revert to rentals.
Is there a minor league baseball team in Flagstaff Ben ??
I don’t think so. But I’m not really into that stuff.
I think the fire is about out over by the phoenix racetrack.I had ash all over my truck this morning.The fires in ca are getting nasty folks.Too many fires all at once just strain firefighters.
just strain firefighters ??
Physically yes but they are well rewarded…..29 year old firefighter I know spent 7 days fighting the northern Cali brush fire….One week….Roughly a $10,000. pay day…
Physically yes but they are well rewarded
*************************
As they should be. If anyone thinks they are overpaid and underworked, you ought to be first in line to join. I hear there are plenty of positions open…step right up!
We’ve been lucky so far. I haven’t smelled any smoke all year, except for planned burns. And yesterday we got the first hint of monsoon type weather. (Yes, I know, what Arizonans call monsoon isn’t exactly correct, but hey.)
Smoke in SE Utah from cali fires, visibility about 30 miles or less, very hazy.
Lost, a lot of that smoke is from a fire outside of Boulder that just started yesterday.
We had smoke yest. morn from the west also. What’s up on Boulder, controlled?
Not hardly. It actually broke out on Thursday, while I was over there for the day. (No I didn’t start it)
It’s right by the Garkane hydro plant, about 5-6 mi north of town at the base of the Kings Pasture Rd. I heard a rumor this morning that it was actually started by a transformer at the power plant, but I haven’t been able to verify. I can certainly verify from its location that it was burning no more than a couple hundred yards from there, though. It started about 1/2 - 1 mile off of Hwy 12.
Whatcha doin’ playin’ with matches over there, huh shoe??
Matches? I was replacing a couple off-grid battery banks. If I wanted to burn down a whole bunch of desert I don’t need no steenkin’ matches…
Seriously, the first whiff of smoke that we noticed, from my vantage point it looked like it was coming from one of the places I had just been a couple hours before. (Turns out it wasn’t, not even close.) But my initial instinctive reaction is always, “Holy sh**! I didn’t forget to tighten that last cable, did I?”
“If I wanted to burn down a whole bunch of desert I don’t need no steenkin’ matches…”
See, what Shoe meant here, Bear, is that he carries this big Sherlock Holmes type magnifying glass in his pocket that he uses to measure how much sunlight there is in a certain spot, and if you’ve ever held a magnifying glass over a piece of paper for awhile (works best during daylight), well, you’ll see what he means, if you’re patient.
So see, Shoe, I get that part, but what I don’t get is how you can burn down desert.
Lost, you’re getting too technical for this engineer.
Concentrating solar is way too long and involved. I’m talkin batteries here - instant gratification, don’t even need any special apparatus. Just a wrench across the + to - terminals works just fine. A little dry cheatgrass in the vicinity and there you go.
Note to anyone listening in - “It’s a joke, I said a joke, son.” Please don’t try this at home.
So…that’s where the term “monkeywrenching” came from, eh?
foreclosures in my N VA hood 22151 ,never in the 90’s
I recently returned from a visit to a suburb of Raleigh, NC. I have friends who bought a house in development there that has expanded dramatically in just the two years they have lived there. I saw a few things of interest:
Numerous houses for sale all over the development my friends live in and in the adjacent developments. The prices were all over the place. I saw two houses across the street from one another with almost a $200k price difference. I am sure one was bigger than the other, but from a cursory look at the outside of the houses it was hard to see what would justify such a large price difference.
Huge differences in prices between developments that were right next to each other. My friends paid around $400k in 2006 for their house. While jogging through a development that is next to their’s I noticed that many of the houses were priced between $180-$200k. These houses are smaller and on smaller lots, but it can’t help the property values of the homes in the development my friends live in to have homes for 50% less only a mile away.
Banks are still willing to appraise homes at a what seems to be a fictional value. My friends recently refinanced their mortgage and the bank appraised the home at $35k more than what they paid.
Which suburb? I currently rent a room in a house in Cary.
Yeah, the RE environment around Raleigh is tough to get a grasp on. We have a lot of the “it’s different here” mentality, using the excuses of high paying jobs, good schools, outsiders moving in, etc. Like you said, there is so much supply here, and the fact that every available piece of land was gobbled up to build another cookie cutter subdivision or lame strip of “luxury townhomes” just added to that supply.
I’ve been perusing MLS and other RE websites just get a gauge of the prices, and folks here are stuck in the bubble days as well. Even homes way out in towns like Clayton and Fuquay are asking insane prices. With fuel prices the way they are, who the hell is going to buy at those inflated home prices?
The suburb was Holly Springs, which I believe is very close to Cary. My impression from the few people I talked to was the same as yours, that the “It’s different here” mentality is still alive and well. It is also very obvious that rising fuel prices are going to make life in that area much more expensive, mass transit is non-existent. The town my friends live in has gone from about 1,000 residents to around 15,000 in less than 10 years. It is full of people from NY, NJ, CT etc. who were attracted by the low real estate prices. Now that people in the Northeast can not as easily sell their houses it is hard to see where the next wave of buyers is going to come from.
Frank,
Someone shut the big gate valve on the NJ/NY/CT pipeline of equity bandits. It seems only you and I are aware of this fact. The “it’s different here” crowd in differing geographical locations are still yammering on how they’ll be saved by “millionare retirees”.
I was watching CNN’s saturday blurb on markets. One knowledgeable RE bear was slapping silly none other than DoucheBag Retsinas. The basis of Retsinas denial is the “upcoming tidal wave of retirees that need a place to live”. Where the #$@#$ are they living now asswipe?!!!! The whole idea of boomers funding insane housing prices worked for about 18 months, circa 2004-2006. What everyone seems to forget is that the first ones to the trough are the winners. Every subsequent group after gets less of the trough contents unless some dramatic shift occurrs. SS is case in point.
A lot of section 8 conversions going on all around in Raleigh. Buy foreclosed for $24,000, welfare it out, too bad neighbors!
If you think the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill “it’s different here” mentality is bad, all you have to do is look west, young man, look west. It’s even worse up here in the NC mountains!
Even homes way out in towns like Clayton and Fuquay are asking insane prices.
My brother bought a new house last year in Fuquay. 200K for a 3000 sq ft house. He says that sales are still brisk in his neighborhood.
Arbor Walk?
Where it isn’t just your customers that walk out on you…
“‘I got an e-mail to pack up my stuff and leave,’ said Don Silverberg, a broker at the Arbor Walk subdivision in Acworth, one of about 18 local communities where Robert Harris Homes has built houses. ‘I’m going to take a little vacation and decide what to do.’”
“But I have included a $2,500 gas card on top of the normal commission for the agent who sells my house,’ Loiselle said.”
Does an agent ever convince someone to buy a house they otherwise would not? I cant possibly imagine an agent ever influencing my decision as to what house I want to live in. Shouldnt they be targeting the buyer?
Also every dollar off the table is a dollar less the buyer can get off the price. I would view this as the seller giving me the middle finger and would make sure I returned the favor.
“Does an agent ever convince someone to buy a house they otherwise would not?”
Some people are just ripe for this kind of “education”. I’m sure that’s how/why some folks got stuck with the mortgages/houses that they have.
BayQT~
Have maybe posted before, I sold a condo into a weak market in 1996 in LA area, by offering an extra $1000 to whatever agent would close a deal. I believe this was effective, not because the agent convinced the buyer to take my condo, but rather because there were many, many almost identical condos for sale at almost identical prices. What my offer to agents did was, it caused them to SHOW my condo to anyone wanting something in that category. It got shown 30 times in 30 days, and the 30th guy actually bought it. My guess is, all 30 of the lookers were not shown the other almost identical properties at almost identical prices.
“The mortgage loan — taken out with First Franklin Bank, which was then owned by National City — originally cost the Abbotts $340 a month. ‘Within three years, it’s over $1,200 a month, not including taxes and fees,’ Ms. England said. ‘And he makes about $2,000 a month.’
My God, how stupid can stupid be?
I mean did they really think that paying 340.00 per month was a correct payment arrangement? Oh, but right…it was like the minimum payment on their credit card. We are dealing with the. howmuchamonth crowd.
BTW, I love reading the story on Montreal, (my former home city before Florida) the bubble deflation is starting to look strangely familiar. It was only two years ago I argued people there that said ” Montreal was different, it was under valued before and real estate only goes up”.
‘But they were also told it might go down. And they expected [any change] would be within a few percentage points.’”
“The mortgage loan — taken out with First Franklin Bank, which was then owned by National City — originally cost the Abbotts $340 a month.
I bet the whole time they were thinking this loan could go down to $20.00 a month when the rate reset lower. Because we are special. We took the short bus to school.
Short of giving them the house for free, their is nothing that can be done to help idiots like the Abbotts. I bet they pay 600 per month for their car paymet. A lease no doubt.
I lived in Montreal for 4 years and left in ‘01. It was “undervalued” compared to Toronto, but then Toronto wasn’t hemmorhaging jobs because of stupid pequistes.
This combination residential & office condo was planned at the height of the local boom and was supposed to be the Next Big Thing. It’s right downtown near the old train station and the new farmer’s market. The listing says $584,900 but I swore I saw it somewhere marked down to 529K
It’s kinda nice but at over $500k?? You can buy a pretty nice house on acreage here, and not at all far from town, for that kind of money.
‘It’s kinda nice but at over $500k?? You can buy a pretty nice house on acreage here, and not at all far from town, for that kind of money.’
I wouldn’t say I have been missing Missoula.
These condos are going online at just the wrong time. The river side of the building would be nice, although I think the view includes the Ready Mix concrete plant. And 199K is still steep for Missoula.
I notice that “preleasing” is available. Sign of panic already?
“‘I got an e-mail to pack up my stuff and leave,’
Boy that just smacks of a what a classy operation that home builder was. Next is e-mail to current homeowners saying repairs to shoddy work is up to them.
LOL - Radio Shack in Fort Worth did that two years ago.
Signs of the economic times in the Valley of the Summer Sun: Salt River Project, one of the local electric utilities, reports a 64% increase over last year in their delinquent account “disconnect” rate. But, being the compassionate utility, they will not disconnect if the temperature is over 110 degrees. I wonder how long milk, eggs, butter and children last in a home with no air conditioning at 109 degrees?
What happens if you go delinquent at 109 and tomorrow it’s 111? Will they turn it back on?
compassion means they let you pay for the dead beat- kinds like the mort bill and other gifts from the gov
Countrywide Mort, Is running a new ad this weekend in Columbia,S.C. VA & FHA loans with little or zero down,100% financing. What qualifies someone For a VA or FHA loan? Military ?
http://www.home.countrywide.com/patricacarson
VA is Veterans, FHA is anybody that qualifies full document with insufficient downpayment.
Both loans are GSEs, the VA loans are guaranteed by the US government with the full faith and credit of the US.
I’ve been living in Asia for the past 5 years. It “seems” to me that the Chinese may have played the US massively, in the sense that the US will now be funding all the Chinese retirees in 20 years! But wait - we have the Boomers also! Which ones to pay for? Help!
The reason I say this is the “full faith and credit” statement above. Not sure if that is as powerful as it used to be.
Seems that we played the Chinese: our dollar is worth half as it was 5 years ago — so there!
Hi Ben….I’ve been away for a while. And out of town last weekend, but I’ve kept my eye on the happenings in Dublin, CA.
The condo conversion that’s about a mile from me has been dumping properties one by one. Several foreclosures, stale listings and asking prices that are just unbelievable….unbelievable in a good way (but not for the seller). These units were converted in the spring of 2005 at an opening price of $440 and quickly went to $560k. The latest asking prices on realtor.com? $325,000. A LOT of people are losing their collective azzes.
Next door to them there is a very well established condo development that was built in 1992. There was a time when you couldn’t find a listing there under $350k for a 1 bd, 800 sf unit or a 722 sf unit. The 800 sf is now listing at $290k and the 722sf recently sold for $260k, I’m sure with much anguish. Those units went for around $148k in 1998 and skyrocketed to $400k during the boom.
And the prices are still going down. And there are more and more defaults and foreclosures. Dublin was incorporated in 1982. Before that it was very rural…the boonies, for sure. In the last 25 years it has grown by leaps and bounds. One would think that anyone who moved here in the early days of its incorporation would be in good shape, but I guess we really can’t bet on that it they were sucked into the hoopla of the boom years. But make no mistake…Dublin is having its problems. Just ask D.R. Horton and the Toll Brothers as they try to sell off their newly built developments. As I said before, the prices are still going down.
BayQT~
Hey there QT, good to hear from you!
Like most places out there, driving down into SF wasn’t exactly what I expected. Lots of traffic, high density, etc. I recall a Shea homes billboard in Livermore. And there was that train thing in the middle of the highway.
I don’t know how you guys do that bumper to bumper commute. I did that for about five years and I was out.
LOL! That ‘train thing’ is BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit). We’ve gotten used to it being in the middle of the highway. Actually, it kind of reminds me of the Chicago ‘L’ running down the Dan Ryan Expressway. I was a kid in Chgo when that line opened up on the Dan Ryan.
I agree with you, though, on the bumper to bumper travel. I’m lucky that I don’t have to commute in that mess since I live 10 minutes from work (all city streets)….6 miles. If all public trans went away and my car broke down, I could walk or ride my bike. I’m actually thinking about getting a moped, Vespa, scooter (whatever the flavor) to save on the little gas that I do buy. Every little bit helps.
BayQT~
I used to wonder how condo conversions could not turn into horrible slums in 10 years are so, as they were built as apartments with short life spans, and finally decided it is impossible. The intent in better areas was always to tear down and use for a higher and better use after their useful life was up until the bubble hit. Given that understanding it was not historically unreasonable to buy near an apartment complex in a good area. Then came the conversions. Talk about urban blight that will be here for the long haul.
Speaking of tear downs: There is a public housing development in Dublin (Arroyo Vista…it’s said to be the only public housing project in the Tri-Valley area) that is slated to be torn down and sold to developers for “clearance and redevelopment”. It doesn’t seem to be going very well for the tenants as many have been moved out or otherwise displaced. Most will probably not live in the new development even though it’s “supposed” to benefit them. The property and acreage is not taken care of very well, so I have mixed feelings about it. Something clearly needs to be done about it but it makes me wonder why the improvements couldn’t be made with the current tenants. Perhaps it’s just a way to get everyone out. I don’t know. I haven’t followed all of the details very closely so I may have missed something.
http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/local&id=5881329
http://www.haca.net/haca/docs/DublinRelocationPlan.pdf
BayQT~
Condo conversions are the biggest joke to ever be put on the public. Anyone that buys one should be taken out back and shot right after they sign the papers.
LOL. My former apartment complex was converted to condos in Scottsdale in 2005 or 2006. Those apartments were not mucking fuch. Someday I’m going to find out how many are vacant - hope at least 50%!
Long Island, New York:
Inventories continue to climb, into the end of June. Whatever houses were sold this spring, it wasn’t enough to stop inventories increasing. The MLS dropped to almost 35,000, back in January. Despite the spring selling season, inventories have climbed to 42,500, this week. Inventories are at their highest and July and August and September are dead months for sales. Notices of Default have increased dramatically since January. Last year I would see about 1 page per week of new NOD’s, on Realtytrac. This year it’s been at least 10 pages per week and as much as 20 pages. The foreclosure process, in New York, can take a year or more. I expect 2009 to be a bloodbath for Long Island. Inventories will still be high and the foreclosures, started this year, should be coming on the market next year.
Although asking prices have come down some, 10 - 15%, their still insanely high. I’ve watched a lot of houses sit on the market, all year, the owners stubbornly holding out for their wishing price. Open houses are generally empty or maybe have one looker, when I pass by. I’m expecting prices on Long Island to continue falling for another 2 years, at least.
vamxer,
Another item that will continue to crush the LI housing market is taxes. I may live in So. Cal, but I spent 3 summers on Lon Gisland while in college. Man, back then I couldn’t believe what my best buddy’s parents paid. Now, I just laugh when I hear how people pay upwards to a grand or more a month in taxes and impounds.
That is absurd!
Imagine owning a home outright, but still paying $1500/month for the next 20-3-40 years of your life in order to cover the county spending ways.
All I can say is good luck. That area is gonna get blasted in the next 2-3 years.
I didn’t get into property taxes, or heating costs ( $1,000 every couple months). The basic problem is that young families simply can’t afford it here. House’s that would have been typical homes for young families, 20 , 30, or 40 years ago, are priced way to high. The mortgage payment plus other expenses make it to expensive. Young people, who aren’t already stuck in a house, are leaving in droves. The parents, of the young people here, probably paid 2 or 3 times their income for their first house, often on one income. Now they expect their children to pay 5 or 6 times the income of a dual income family.
I’m perfectly happy to rent and put money in the bank each month. If I spend any money on a depreciating asset, it will be for a new Yamaha Vmax.
those bikes are insane
RE: Long Island.
The only properties that continue to get action are those priced at 30-50% of peak — and they get a dozen calls a day. We have a Brentwood listing at 189K, still a little high, but getting plenty of calls.
There was an Islip home that listed for 225K and sold in a weekend; a new Central Islip home come on yesterday for 173K and will probably go in a week; and a Mastic Beach 3BR sold for 95K in a week as well. These are 2000-2001 prices.
These are the only listings getting any action — and the only buyers we see are approved in the 150-250K range, in an area where the peak median was 400K. Bail that out, homie.
As far as taxes, they tripled in a decade, and no one wants to face the fact that they will have to come down. I’m actually predicting empty properties as people leave for good, double up, etc.
The real civil war brewing on Long Island is individual p/tax payers versus school board employees. Newsday doesn’t really get into the concept that in some towns, such as Brookhaven, nearly 20% of residents get a gov’t paycheck of some sort. That translates into every four households supporting the fifth. PDF Link
My take is that the LI economy really tanked after the Cold War ended, and big employers such as Grumman laid off tens of thousands of white collar workers, and everyone scurried into “safe” civil service employment.
Frank,
There is no way to exit Long Island. The crushing property taxes will make many want to escape but they won’t be able to because most are still hooked on 2005 prices and therefore will grudgingly pay the abhorrent tax system they’re enslaved to.
Exe, I agree about many being on the hook with original mortgages/helocs tied to peak prices — which is why I think we’re going to have an epidemic of voluntary defaulters.
I haven’t seen many bail and swappers, but do know of about 12 people who just stopped paying, w/o job losses, etc. They mumble something about not making the payments, but basically, they’re keeping the cash and waiting for the sheriff.
The resulting problem, due to lack of apartment inventory, will be nowhere for people to go — and then they will leave.
If things get bad enough, people who would never think of leaving NY will go, like the grapes of wrath. Leaving behind the cops and teachers to pay each others’ salaries. There are literally more civil servants here than construction and manufacturing workers combined. The statistics read like a communist society.
Wow, that is right in line with Kunstler’s piece last week. It is fairly obvious once one thinks about it that the US should have reorganized in 1990. Instead of fixing those bridges in Minn and the levies in NOLA, we kept fighting the Russians. And they have a sheitload of oil.
The swinging of the pendulum, nah?
“It’s improving,” Parrish said. “There is some silver lining in some of the things I’m seeing.”
He said such optimism would have been laughable at the height of the real estate market two years ago. “But everything’s relative,” he said.
http://www.gainesville.com/article/20080628/NEWS/928897809/1002/NEWS&title=Sales_of_existing_homes_in_area_rise
I see an interesting recent development with respect to used single family home listings in our zip code (Rancho Bernardo West — 92127). About a month ago, the median list price was $1,150,000, and now it is up to $1,299,000. There is still a large group of homes (seven) listed at exactly $1,150,000 — in fact, this appears to be the mode listing price.
My take on this (which is admittedly just a hunch) is that high end homes coming on to the market are not moving, while low end homes are the only thing selling, albeit slowly. Consequently, the inventory of homes is becoming increasingly top-heavy at the high end of the price/quality distribution.
As further evidence, the most recent median sale price for single family homes in 92127 on Sandicor (caution: .pdf) (April 2008) was $690,000, which happens to be $609,000 below the current median SFR list price. Incredibly, the disequilibrium gap between median list price and median sale price is widening in both directions as the bust plays out.
On a drive through town and out into the burbs, not
one porta-pottie in sight. When you see that, you
know the builders have quit.
LOL!
Chuckling to myself.
Yep, not as many dumpsters outside vacant, beat-up houses either.
Local Market Observation in North Atlanta:
Well, besides Robert Harris,rumor has it going around that there are more local builders lining up to to join them. Alot of local community builders are experiencing liens on properties. I would advise any buyers to check the county records before purchasing.
Local “gated” community here called The Manor Golf and Country Club is experiencing builders 1)losing homes to foreclosures or 2)Price dumping..homes that were listed in $1 million dollar range now down 20%..homes listed at $2 million plus starting to see price drops as much as $700K..and still not selling! Imagine the comps for those that bought 1 year ago…3)liens on incompleted homes..
Local newspaper AJC home section continues to get smaller and smaller each week with ads from builders..
Hearing from most people that they are not “going” far away from home for vacation..most are going to places within a 300 mile radius and looking for bargains..
All real estate related industries, mortgage, title, realtors are experiencing as much as a 80-90% drop off in business…
Went into Lowes yesterday..had my choice of at least 10 people to help me…
“Went into Lowes yesterday..had my choice of at least 10 people to help me…”
Blissful isn’t it? Not so much, “I’ll be back in a minute, I’m getting something for someone” from the blue or orange-vested ones never to see them again.
Then again in Portland the sun only arrived this past week, so when I was at Home Depot the other day, it was swamped with fair weather DIYers/gardeners.
Had 4 (FOUR!) cashiers working on a checkout problem at local Ohio Lowe’s ( project card issued incorrectly). Only three customers checking out a few incidental items in the half hour I was at the registers. The place was empty. Weather was great, on a Saturday afternoon. I got royal treatment for a six window replacement. You would have thought I was building a house. No wonder I’m getting fliers in my mailbox for small job carpentry and fix it contractors on an every other day basis; cant remember getting more than about one or two a year ago. Had to laugh at lack of porta potties; true here too. Last year had the constant sound of re roofing jobs going on in the developments nearby; have not seen one yet this year!
More on Atlanta:
The demise of Robert Harris Homes does not bode well for the sustainability of other metro area homebuilders. They built in desirable areas, their price range was across the board, from entry level to McMansions, and I think they were the sales leader for new homes this year in Forsyth County. As a last ditch sales effort, Robert Harris tried a massive local billboard-advertising program, with discounts of $90K to $160K, which obviously didn’t work.
Atlanta unemployment was up 0.6% in just one month, from April to May. The total number of unemployed people in GA has reached an all time high.
People I know who are in commissioned sales are making 1/3 to 1/ 2 of the income they made last year. Sales mangers that were making $100K last year have had their incomes drop to an annualized $50K.
I was talking on the phone to an inside sales rep this week, and when I said the usual pre-business pleasantry of “How are you?”, there was total silence on her end for about 30 seconds. Finally she blurted “FINE”. When I said that didn’t sound really fine to me & asked if she was okay, she said that gas prices were killing her financially, and she wasn’t sure if she was going to make it.
Desperation seems to be in the air, along with the oppressive feeling of waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Gee, the Lowe’s in Cicero (north of Syr, NY) was packed. I think my mouth was agape at the sight. Now what could possibly pack a Lowe’s after the week we’ve had?
Then I realized every other parking lot on that Route 11 strip was packed.
I feel like I’m living in a parallel world.
In my 92024 ‘hood, the rental house next door finally sold, after the LV slumlords lost it to the bank, having moved out in 2005 to chase their pot of gold, and lost everything, apparantely. I figured it would sell for under 500K (FBs bought for $399K but must have HELOCd it to pay for their LV McMansion). Zillow says the new owners paid $512K, but current estimated value was $485K Ouch. Especially since the place suffers from deferred maintenance. Four doors down the fancy shmancy owners just lost their home to the bank, house being auctioned in July. This past weekend they had an out-of-control estate sale, with people walking out of the house with stuff they didn’t pay for. Rumor has it that the FBers pulled out their $15K plus stainless built-in appliances to sell on Craigs List. Per RE law, built-in appliances are considered “chattel” and considered a part of the house, just like toilets and sinks, so it’s illegal to remove them, unless of course, you replace them with some cheapo fixtures. FBers said they tried to get the bank to workout a new loan, but between the husband not working (a former RV salesman), and the wife’s boob job (a former RE agent who opened a Spa), the bank wasn’t too sympathetic. The neighborhood is abuzz– we’re all curious about this upcoming auction, our own backyard foreclosure tour.
“The neighborhood is abuzz– we’re all curious about this upcoming auction, our own backyard foreclosure tour.”
Another indicator it’s not time to buy. Some day, few will be “abuzz” at news like this.
“Fixtures” is the word, I think. Tenants can’t take “fixtures”.
The twist within all of this is who owns what.
The “owner” would seem to be free to take his copper pipe (and of course the SS Appliances) if s/he wants to. The FB probably has the title which makes them the “owner”.
But the bank in reality owns it all via mortgage so the copper pipe de facto belongs to them.
So is someone taking what they own or stealing?
What a friggin mess!!!!! Not sure Common Law has ever dealt with these issues!!!
You’re right, I mispoke. I looked up the legal definition of chattel vs, fixtures, and there certainly is some grey area. Pasted below is from a legal website:
QUESTION: Recently, friends of ours purchased a home through a private sale. On closing, many items were taken from the property by the sellers. Our friends had presumed that the items were a part of the purchase. They were shocked to learn from their lawyer that the items were chattels and not fixtures and therefore, the sellers were within their rights to take the items on closing day. I am wondering what is the difference between a fixture and a chattel. I am also curious why there is a distinction made between fixtures and chattels.
ANSWER: The difference between an item being a fixture or a chattel depends upon whether that item is attached (or fixed) to the real property or not. A Fixture is an item that is attached to the real property in such a manner that it is usually not removable without causing some damage to the premises. In other words, a fixture is attached to the property in such a significant manner that it becomes regarded as part of the real property.
A chattel on the other hand is an item that is not attached to the real property in a significant manner, and can be relatively easily removed without causing damage (or causing very little damage) to the property.
The distinction between fixtures and chattels is important simply because in the standard Agreement of Purchase and Sale, chattels are not included in the purchase price unless clearly noted by the parties as being included. The problem in determining whether an item is a chattel or a fixture arises from the fact that the distinction depends upon how firmly or permanently the item is attached to the property and what was the intention of the party who attached the item. What one person may consider to be a permanently and significantly attached item, another may not consider to be significantly attached.
For example, is a chandelier a fixture or chattel? Certainly, a chandelier can be removed and replaced with another ceiling light without causing any damage to the property. However, I am certain many readers would consider a chandelier to be a fixture.
To avoid any misunderstandings, be very specific in your Agreement about what items are a part of the purchase price (and therefore are to stay) and what items are not a part of the purchase price. A carefully drafted and detailed Agreement can help avoid any disputes arising over these types of items later on. My rule of thumb on this issue is simple, if it is important to you, put it in writing — do not assume anything! Another way to protect yourself is to use the services of a licensed real estate agent. Best of luck!
I think the recession is finally beginning to bite a little, in Charlotte. I am hearing more concern from co-workers that “don’t want to look at their 401Ks”. The new car lots for American autos are devoid of lookers. I am hearing ads on the radio now for big discounts with free gas cards, in an attempt to move inventory.
This morning I noticed a full parking lot in front of my local “Big Lots”. (This is a discounter a half-step down from Wal*Mart, but not quite as junky as Dollar General.) A few years ago it was mostly empty, and I wondered if that store was even goign to stay in business.
While buying stamps at the PO, the clerk was talking with the customer ahead. Both of them had cut down to just one car for their families, the postal guy saying “I live right by here and hardy drive but it’s still $75 to $80 a week”.
Driving home, I see FOR SALE signs that have been out since winter. I pass by two stalled projects, with now-fading banners announcing a soon-to-come luxury project.
On a mailbox I see a hung hand-written sign. Beach house for rent, $700! (Charlotte is a good 5 hour drive from the beach.) Somebody must be getting tired of the “second alligator” they’re paying for.
There are now 3 stalled, incomplete, high profile towers in the uptown area. Google up “The Park”, “Smith Curry Condos” and “210 Trade”. (Or read up on the gossip at urbanplanet dot org.) There are rumors of other projects that may be scuttled.
It’s getting interesting.
You know, that 401K thing is going to be interesting. Even if there is a bump up Monday in the markets its the last day of the month and hard to cover the losses. I’d bet there are going to be some very unhappy folks in a few weeks when they get their 401K statements for this past quarter.
I just keep thinking our present day chart looks a CRAPLOAD like the charts of 1929.
Also, as i understand it, they had a bad day on black Thursday, an ok Friday, then it completely shit itself Monday and Tuesday. I am fascinated by the start of the markets on monday.
Not me. I get happy when it tanks near payday. That’s when the money goes in to buy more shares, and if the shares are cheaper when I buy, all the better for me.
Ditto. Sad thing is I stop buying into my 401k in 2 weeks for this year. All stock mutual funds. But I will be turning 50 in 2009 and look forward to putting the max in.
2009 is the first year the contribution limits for IRAs and 401ks are “indexed to inflation.”
Can anyone please tell me what that means? Seems that we fearless 401k maxxers will be screwed from contributing more than the previous years. Government’s calculation of inflation is far below what the rate really is.
In 1968 my parents bought a new house on 1 1/4 acre of land outside of Rock Hill, SC. for 30k. My father commuted the 30 miles one way to Westinghouse in Charlotte. He died in ‘03. The house sold in Feb ‘05 for 90k. Considering the market at the time and the size of the house, I would have thought it would bring more. But then I don’t think my brothers wanted our stepmother to get any more than they could help. Nice people. We don’t speak.
While buying stamps at the PO, the clerk was talking with the customer ahead. Both of them had cut down to just one car for their families, the postal guy saying “I live right by here and hardy drive but it’s still $75 to $80 a week”.
So he’s burning through 20 gallons a week and he’s hardly driving? Even with a 10 mpg pig thats 200 miles a week. Not my definition of “hardly driving”.
He’d cut down to one car for his family. I suppose his wife was driving the rest of the miles.
Austin
Near-in, a couple of cleared sites that had signs for upcoming condo developments now have “for sale” signs for the site.
Out in the suburbs there are more “for sale” signs for undeveloped land than before.
Lots of “for lease” and the odd “office condo for sale” signs along commercial roads, in near-in neighborhoods, and even more so in peripheral neighborhoods or near-in suburbs.
Completed condo projects, arguably more attractive than the ones currently going up, don’t seem to have many actual inhabitants. 4-year old loft complex has 8 for sale signs out front. Every condo conversion complex has for sale signs and craigslists ads.
The trailers at Shady Grove on Barton Springs Rd are gone and hundreds of pecan trees cut down. The condos will be very special — granite, steel, pergo. Marketing materials filled with pictures of trees (and those would be the ones you cut down?) Another condo development is just starting up, destroying another nearby tree-filled property.
Downtown towers proceed apace, w/ more more more in the pipeline. I hear more stories of this or that person having bought a downtown tower condo or two as an “investment.”
Traffic is lighter, and the worst of it doesn’t seem to last as long as it did. There are more open parking places around restaurants, cinemas, theaters, even on the weekend. My Rolfer and my “waxer” aren’t as busy as they used to be. According to her sign, the cheap hair cut lady dropped her price from $10 to $7.25.
Doggie Day Care is celebrating its 10th anniversary with a live music event. A Dental Associates practice up north is having a live music event as well. (Jeez, Austin has “jumped the shark,” you say?)
My neighborhood is experiencing a rash of burglaries and an increase in scams. There are more jobless, druggy or mentally ill homeless people hanging around than is usual in summer.
A good thing - the farmers’ markets are thriving! I think the salmonella in tomatoes problem gave them a boost.
“Jeez, Austin has “jumped the shark,” you say?”
Sorry, Portland has the market cornered on shark jumping.
We could hardly keep up with the Pacific NW.
Seattle and Portland were already “trendy” when South Austin was still Bubblaland, with music.
should be Bubbaland
But do tell me how Portland tops a live music event at a dentist’s office.
Touche.
I just returned from Austin; my friend and I took a day trip to San Antonio to “remember the Alamo”. I’m such a dummy, the outnumbered Americans who had been settling on Mexican land (and didn’t want to pay no stinking taxes) actually lost after a 13 day siege. But I digress….my impression along the interstate was that every square inch of undeveloped land in Texas is for sale. Dozens of signs along the interstate begging for pastureland to become the next strip mall. Weirdest sight: a vast, sheet-metal clad WalMart distribution center, covering several acres, and just next door a herd of longhorns munching away on their grassy knoll. Yup, don’t mess with Texas.
I hope that land for sale is owned by the people “developing” Austin’s luxury home / condo market, so that they will go broke faster.
I didn’t have my camera the other day here in Sri Lanka -
There was a stray cow sitting in front of a Bentley.
Fairly typical.
Sounds like Texas 2008.
We tend to remmeber our losses not our victories.
sheet-metal clad WalMart distribution center, covering several acres, and just next door a herd of longhorns munching away on their grassy knoll
Corporations get property tax abatements for having steers on their commercial land. Dell does this.
You mentioned that “the trailers at Shady Grove on Barton Springs Rd are gone and hundreds of pecan trees cut down”.
Sad sad.
My wife is Thai and her family members back in Thailand are doing the same thing - only in their case it is the mango trees. They take a long time to grow. Not sure but I’ll bet pecans are the same.
Back to nature, kids! Kunstler would tell you that the future is now, and we better have the fruit (or nuts) on the trees. Whether he is right tomorrow or in a half-century, he’s probably right.
Sad about the mango trees. What are they doing with the land?
I think cousin is actually selling the wood from the trees. The land is used for sweet corn and other veggies, and some bananas. There used to be enough water for rice, but no longer. This is around Kanchanaburi, where the Bridge on the River Kwai is located. It is a lovely place if you ever get over to this neck of the woods.
How long does it take for a pecan tree to mature?
A little blurb from the resident lowballer here. I put in a written offer at about 30% off list. The list price was approximately what these sellers paid last year on some acreage that they are either trying to flip or legitimately decided not to build on. This is in the Conway/Bartlett/Jackson area of New Hampshire.
Well, I couldn’t have offended them more by being so insensitive to their needs and making such an offer at such a huge discount. Yeah, BFD pal!
At any rate, I was nervous because I was expecting an outright immediate refusal but the sellers realtor didn’t convey the offer decline right away. Not even a counter offer (that would have been met with silence from my end) which tells me this area is a long way from reality. WHEW, felt like a close call so I need to be more careful.
At any rate, strike another blow from the lowballers of america!
Inventory has been building steadily. Still seeing some deals going through but mostly very quiet. I suspect another few quarters of no buyers coupled with increasingly bearish news on housing will lead to some sellers being ready to capitulate and take their financial ass-pounding.
Augur,
I love that area. And it is does have some folks with serious money. But, as a poster mentioned above, Monday is the end of the quarter, and brokerage statements will be going out in the mail soon, for those who are afraid to check online.
Just wait a couple of weeks, even with a bear rally, the market trends down, a bank fails, more layoffs and higher gas prices, and somehow, reality filters through.
You’re being pretty nice to low-ball now…it’s kind of an early-warning for those folks.
A neighbor has been doing some work for a real estate broker who has been in the business for 30 years. She told him that she went to an event for brokers, promoting the downtown condos. The brokers were feted and visited the models. When they heard the prices, she said that the response was uniform : NO WAY, they’re not going to sell.
If you want to read “Downtown condos use design to get and keep residents,” here it is:
http://www.statesman.com/search/content/life/stories/style/06/26/0626goinside.html
“Next up, residents will be treated to a session on organizing and storage with the More Space Place. Concierge service and reserved parking are great, but with square footage at a premium in downtown abodes, this event could be the single most important amenity offered to the residents of 360, or any urban dweller for that matter.”
I was in Florida last week (I’m there 1 week out of every 5.)
Drove around a neighborhood near my client’s site. (Google map “100 Bicton Lane, Windermere FL” to see where this development is)
Zillow shows about 45 homes for sale there—some for more than a year. I don’t think anyone actually bought homes there to live in. It was all get-rich-quickers.
Anyway, after driving through the gate by tailgating someone in (some security!) I drove around. I spotted a note taped to a front door.
“Could that be a foreclosure notice?” I thought to myself. I got out and checked. Sure enough it was!
I continued driving around and saw two more such notices.
Now, all the homes in this little development are essentially identical. Non foreclosures have been for sale for a year. Nobody’s going to sell any house there at any price for a long time….
“‘When he got the loan three years ago, it was an adjustable rate mortgage and they knew that and they were told it might go up,’ said ACORN spokeswoman Jennifer England. ‘But they were also told it might go down. And they expected [any change] would be within a few percentage points.’”
It probably was within a few percentage points. Like 5% to 9% APR.
I don’t believe these people’s stories. They all knew fixed rates were at a 40 year low. How could interest rates go down?
Just like last year, it’s June and I’m seeing lots of SOLD signs–although I’m no longer driving around the same market. Now I live much closer to the jobs. Many $200+k homes are moving in a matter of days. More expensive properties are still sitting, but not all. One particular home has been dropping their price $10k a week. Although they started well over $500k and I think the property is really more of a high $300s type. Plus its an 80-100 year old home so probably not energy efficient. I was going to check out one myself but figured I had all summer. Nope, gone w/in 10 days unless financing gets in the way.
The high end homes are located pretty far out (10-30 miles). Sometimes I wonder if I’m competing w/downsizers that might be buying before they sell their larger less commuter friendly home. I gotta get out and kick a few wheels. I feel very confused about seeing so many sold signs.
We’re seeing this, too.
Keep your chin up! Eventually, it will turn.
Just grab some more of that popcorn.
In the last month I have been in Panama (a week), Boulder, CO (two weeks), and Mexico.
Briefly:
Panama - I discovered this is an Indian word meaning “constant downpour.” Properties extremely expensive everywhere, from east to west and coast to coast. A lot of people are getting ready to lose a lot of money. And they say it’s even more bubbly in Costa Rica and Nicaragua! Sign of the times, on a billboard: “Su tierra es su futura, titulala.” (Your land is your future, title it.) Lots of interesting people around, both native and non-, and obviously a pretty nice place to hang out, especially on the coasts. But, why buy when you can rent?
Boulder - The prices I saw looked very 2005-San Diego, like $450K for non-descript old houses in run-of-the-mill neighborhoods. Rents justify high prices close to CU, but what the bubble has done is make people think that every place in Boulder has some huge intrinsic value because of the U. or some trendy local business where everybody wants to work for $11 and a great vibe. Hey, that’s mommy and daddy’s money supporting the high prices, and they’re running out. Very friendly people, great stretch of weather, excellent cycling.
Mexico - Like many developing countries has a serious inflation problem, all of a sudden, even though the currency has been relatively strong recently. Calderon has frozen prices - not smart (the supposedly right-wing PAN has become more populist than the PRI was). Best solution to stimulate economy: denationalize Pemex, which would require a constitutional amendment, and in general free up the economy to foreign (read: U.S.) investors. Also, it’s getting harder to operate as a small-time importer, between the heavy-handedness by the Mexican tax authorities on my main supplier and the random but persistent bureaucratic tie-ups on the U.S. side (e.g., Fish and Wildlife placing holds on packages with any shell in jewelry demanding Latin names, exporter’s permit, etc.) Maddening.
So I said screw it and bought a house - OK, I use the word loosely - really a glorified double-wide with a carport and shed on a 50 X 100 lot way south of here in Martin County, Florida. The southernmost reach of the Florida cracker community, 25 miles north of Palm Beach. Sick of renting and walking up stairs, and I miss piddling around in a shed and growing stuff.
Best solution to stimulate economy: denationalize Pemex,
Pemex provides 40% of the Federal budget in Mexico.
Selling it off would be political and actual suicide for any Mexican Presidente.
Meixco will be facing a budgetary cataclysm in the next several years, since Cantarell is in decline and they have no other oilfields of that size to replace it with.
And then there will be issues. Sounds like wholesales reorganisation of the world.
Southeast Dutchess County, NY (NY/CT border towns)
I saw new inventory on my commute home last nite. Two nicer places that I thought I never see a for sale sign on. Second note; The site contractor(he’s not an honest one) who bought up 100 acres bordering my in-laws land and rental units in 2001 just put his own disgusting display of wealth on the market. Price? 7 million. FANTASY. He currently has 4 additional spec houses for sale on the same road. Although his new spec houses are price very competitively with resale asking prices, it doesn’t mean they’ll sell. Resale sellers are still living in a fantasy and this guy is taking full of advantage of it. Anyways, “I’m moving south” is his latest line of BS. Granted he built a nice shack on some waterfront but where is the buyer at that price and the area around his bloated shack has quite a few trailers surrounding it. Not that there is anything wrong with trailers or folks who live in them but I don’t think I’d want to see trailers near my “7 million” dollar shack.
Moved from Vegas to S. Oregon last year. The Rogue valley is in denial big time. Houses here are still very overpriced. The local paper today had an article on how the market is going to rebound…of course quoting the local RE know it all that “Oregon is different”. How often have we heard that. I’m getting ready to buy a dental practice here, but not a house. I love my golf course home that I rent. We love S. Oregon but man are people drinking the cool aid here.
Exactly wher are you in southern Oregon ??
We are in Eagle Point just outside of Medford.
Pullman, WA (middle of nowhere, Eastern WA)
buildable lots: 120, record high, approximately 10 year supply
MLS single family: 150 and holding, 1-2 year supply
We are only seeing minor price reductions to date, 5-10%, seller pays closing costs, etc… But given the inventory numbers we should start to see some more serious price cuts beginning this fall.
But don’t worry, “what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas” according to the Washington State Center for Real Estate Research here at WSU.
There is a spanking new high-rise Condo project in downtown San Jose that looks only 20% occupied after six months of trying to sell. About 3 months ago they hung a (really tacky) banner from the roof proclaiming “SEXY VIEWS STARTING AT $400K”. Drove by last night and saw another banner hanging right next to that one saying “WIN A FREE PENTHOUSE”. I was on my phone at the time in heavy traffic and couldn’t snap a photo - but it is on my list under “Things to do - Entertainment”
This poor condo building stands a few blocks from a newer taller (sexier) condo building that will start selling first units next month.
Free Penthouses for everyone in San Jose!
Visiting the in-laws in Victoria, BC. And, as many of you Canadians knows, it’s DIFFERENT here.
My husband and I are officially homeless, having given up our rental for the summer to traipse around Western North America and we’re spending most of the next month here on Vancouver Island.
While my father in-law is mainlining the “it’s-different-here” flavored kool-aid (he believes his one block from the beach 4-bedroom to be worth in the $2 million+ range, I’ve noted a PLETHORA of For Sale signs in the immediate neighborhood — many of which have been here since the last time we visited LAST SUMMER.
At any rate, my husband’s younger brother and I had a long conversation about the market here and he is beginning to hope that someday he too could afford to live in Victoria.
How exciting.
Also, in our Homeless Trek Across North America, we spent about four days traveling up Highway 1 from San Francisco. While I can claim no expertise on those markets (we’re from LA/South OC), there seemed an AWFUL lot of Bank Owned and For Sale signs along Highway 1 in small towns like Ft. Bragg, Point Arena, and nearly EVERYWHERE in Oregon (we hit I-5 through Washington).
All I know at this point is that it’s not just the IE, San Diego, and Lost Wages that are imploding anymore. Even in fancy-pants Victoria, BC where a) they’re not making any more land, b) every Canadian wants to retire here, c) all the oil millionaires want to live here, d) everyone’s rich because of oil here, e) it’s the best place to live in the entire country, f) we have Butchart Gardens!, ad infinitum, ad nauseum, the cracks are beginning to reveal some very deep fault lines.
As I no longer wish to discuss this with my father-in-law, do any of you know if there are ARMs in Canada? There has to be something very creative happening here for people to be able to afford these homes. It can’t all be down to 40 and 50 year mortgages.
I post rarely, but love so many of you for your wisdom and senses of humor about what I thought a personal failure, namely, my inability to buy a house (that means you Ben Jones, Aladinsane, FPSS, Exeter, TxChick, OlympiaGal, Lost, Ouro, PB, et. al.) that I am THRILLED to be able to inform you that my husband HAS FINALLY CRACKED and said that he would be willing to wait 2-3 years to buy.
…and the peasants (my dog and I) rejoiced!
We rejoice with you!!
Amen. I don’t belong on that list but I’m flattered nevertheless. Congratulations on your husband. The more people that see housing for what it really is, a place to keep warm and dry, the sooner we’ll return to sanity.
Went to some open houses today in the Cambrian and Rose Garden areas of San Jose. The houses I went to were in the $670-$800k range. In contrast to the last few weekends, it was very dead, almost zero traffic. The realtors all seemed very hungry - chatted me up as I kept trying to leave. Almost every realtor stated that the seller would drop x dollars off the asking price. In looking at the previous sales of these homes, two that sold in 2005 are now at or below the 2005 sale price.
The Los Angeles Times has a Hot Property column in its Real Estate section. Tracks the home buying and selling of the Fabulous people. Of the 5 houses listed, 4 were for sale.
Looks like even the rich are deserting this sinking ship.