Everybody Got It Wrong In California
The San Diego Business Journal reports from California. “LandAmerica Financial Group Inc., the Richmond, Va.-based title company issued an internal memo to its San Diego employees June 12, saying it intends to reduce operations here, according to Peter Habenicht, VP of communications for LandAmerica. ‘The real estate market … presents a number of challenges,’ he said. ‘This is a down cycle, and we all understand down cycles are part of the industry.’”
“‘If you look at employment in the real estate sector of the economy, it’s down. The title companies would be part of that,’ said Alan Gin, a University of San Diego economist.”
“Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC has reduced its metro San Diego work staff 38 percent from 300 agents in 2005 to 189 agents today, says Liz Piccolomini, manager of Coldwell Banker’s downtown and Mission Valley offices. ‘I think that everyone is curbing because a lot of agents can’t afford to stay in the business.’”
“To make ends meet, title companies are trying to pick up contracts with banks that are selling foreclosed properties, also known as real estate owned, or REO, properties.”
“‘That’s keeping us going,’ said says Lindsay Riddle, membership chair of the San Diego County Escrow Association, noting that foreclosures represent about 80 percent of her business. ‘That’s pretty much all there is right now.’”
“‘I think we had 80 refinance openings a month,’ said Riddle. ‘It’s gone down to one or two a month now. The refinance business … has been eliminated.’”
The San Gabriel Valley Tribune. “Coldwell Banker’s office at 300 W. Colorado Blvd. in Old Pasadena is preparing to close next month, and another location in La Ca ada Flintridge will be reduced to a satellite office, a company official said.”
“James Joseph, owner of Century 21 Ambassador in Whittier and Brea and Coldwell Banker Ambassador in Whittier, said his business has already absorbed 16 other real estate operations that have closed.”
“‘Everyone is closing because there aren’t enough transactions to support the overhead that offices have,’ he said. ‘The mood among Realtors is that this happened a lot faster and is a lot worse than people thought.’”
“Jerry Jervis, who owns Century 21 Jervis & Associates, closed down his Brea location early this year and moved most of the employees to another La Habra office.”
“Jervis said his company’s real estate transactions have fallen off by about 50 percent, a figure he says is about the norm for most real estate agencies in today’s market.”
“‘Right now we’re really cranking … but a lot of that comes from selling foreclosures,’ he said.”
“IndyMac Bancorp Inc. appeared to edge closer to a meltdown Friday as its stock fell to 75 cents a share amid concerns that a collapse could leave the Pasadena-based bank’s borrowers and depositors in the lurch.”
” ‘If the economy erodes further from here it will probably get worse for them,’ said Jason Arnold, an equity analyst. ‘I wouldn’t rule out receivership. My gut feeling is that they won’t pull themselves out of this unless something changes dramatically over the near term.’”
The Daily Breeze. “The South Bay’s real estate market had been relatively insulated from the worst of the region’s downturn. That changed in the past two months, with the median price of a single-family home sold in May at $675,000, down 6.6 percent over May of last year, according to the South Bay Association of Realtors.”
“In April, the median price dropped 10.6 percent, year over year, to $625,000, the association said.”
“‘The downturn in the real estate market over the past 18 months has hit many areas of Los Angeles County very hard,’ said Carol Olney, the association’s president, in a statement. ‘As has been the case in other declining markets, real estate in the South Bay remained somewhat insulated from the depreciation experienced in these other areas. This changed, however, over the past two months.’”
“The sales volume also dropped significantly. The median price for a single-family home was down 22.8 percent year over year in May, with an annual drop of 36.3 percent in April, the report says.”
The County Sun. “Last time real estate agent Linda Brechtel checked, asking someone to leave their home was not in her job description. But that’s just the position she found herself in when showing a recently foreclosed house in Ontario.”
“‘I have never done that before,’ said the agent in Corona. ‘But they were really nice about it.’”
“The North Baker Avenue home is owned by the bank now and has been on the market for a week at $207,000. And it’s not alone. Brechtel said that in a one-mile radius of the home there are 18 other bank-owned properties, many of which are short sales in the price range of $175,000 to $225,000.”
“‘That’s the trend now, short sales,’ she said. ‘Before foreclosing, the owner is asking the bank to take less money than what’s owed or the loan amount. If this doesn’t work the home is foreclosed.’”
From ABC 7.com. “‘Home swapping’ is a novel way for homeowners to get out of the home they’re living in without taking a financial hit on declining property values. Jerry Stussman is a longtime resident of Southern California and a veteran homeowner, swapped (a) home he owned in Thousand Oaks for a home in Virginia that he uses as a rental property. Now he’s considering swapping the Virginia home for another property, either in California or in another state.”
“Jerry took me to the home he bought about a year ago in Westlake Village. He was hoping to keep it, but since the real estate market has been on a downward spiral since, he’s changed his original plan. ‘We’ve got it rented now, the market has crashed on it, and because of that, we’ll probably swap it,’ said Sussman.”
From KSBY.com. “The California Association of Realtors shows May’s median price in North Santa Barbara County fell to $297,000. That is down 32.8 percent. However, sales volume soared 85 percent from May 2007.”
“‘For Sale’ signs are a familiar sight in Santa Maria, and as sellers struggle to survive in the current housing market, first-time buyers like Mark Ghenu are the silver lining. ‘We were in the market for a house. As the housing market crashed, it made it feasible for us to buy a house,’ Ghenu said.”
“The median price in San Luis Obispo County was just above $442,000, that is down 23.7 percent from May of last year. The number of sales was up more than seven percent. In South Santa Barbara County, where the median price was $1.2 million, down nearly 11 percent from May of last year. Sales volume there dropped by almost 17 percent.”
The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “Don’t expect the housing market to recover this year. Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, forecasts a turnaround next spring. He made that prediction Friday, speaking to 65 people at a luncheon sponsored by the Santa Cruz Association of Realtors.”
“Statewide, the number of sales has increased since late last year, but Kleinhenz doesn’t want to use the word ‘recovery’ until prices turn around. His figures show a 42 percent price drop in Watsonville from a year ago and 15 percent declines in Santa Cruz and Scotts Valley.”
“Many homeowners got mortgages they couldn’t afford. They didn’t make enough money to cover the payments, but they bought houses that were beyond their means using loans that didn’t require proof of income.”
“Analysts who expected a quick recovery were overly optimistic. ‘Everybody got it wrong,’ Kleinhenz said.”
“As for mortgages where initial payments don’t cover the cost, and debt grows rather than shrinks, Kleinhenz predicts that by the time borrowers must make higher payments, the economy will have improved, home prices will have risen and refinancing will be possible.”
The Oakland Tribune. “In one 1½-mile swath of Oakland surrounding Arroyo Viejo Park, residents have counted more than 150 houses and apartments in foreclosure. Many are abandoned and locked up. Many have foot-high grass growing around them and junk mail piling up at their doorsteps. Some have become havens for drug dealers.”
“‘We want to reclaim our neighborhood,’ said Annie McKinzie, a resident of Krause Avenue between 74th and 75th avenues, whose neatly landscaped house faces three foreclosed or for-sale homes.”
“One of these houses has had four sets of tenants in the past year, McKinzie said, but she added that some of the people may just have been using it.”
“In some areas, such as parts of 85th and 86th avenues, three or more foreclosed homes can be found in a single block. People living in this neighborhood used to find it difficult to obtain mortgages. Then, in the early to mid-2000s, mortgage lenders became very willing to lend.”
The Marin Independent Journal. “Some Marin real estate agents are turning to a higher power amid slumping home sales. The Marin Association of Realtors reports brisk sales of small statues of St. Joseph, the patron saint of real estate, since the association started selling the religious figurine at its San Rafael store a month ago.”
“Edward Segal, the agency’s executive officer, said the agency, which has sold 15 figurines, is believed to be the first realty association in the country to sell the item.”
“Realtor Susan Gordon of Pacific Union is a believer. Gordon, an agent for 18 years, bought statues on a whim with fellow agent Cathy Youngling a few weeks back. A day after the duo buried one at a Mill Valley home that had been on the market for six months, a buyer was found at an open house. Those buyers closed escrow this week.”
“‘We figured, let’s just give it a try. I mean what have we got to lose?’ Gordon said. ‘After that, we went back and bought four more. I couldn’t believe it that (the realty association) had these little statues here.’”
“Dianne Burford, who has worked at the Mission San Rafael Arcangel gift shop for two years, said the figurines are big sellers. ‘Real estate people will come in and buy four at a time,’ she said. ‘Other folks that have their homes up for sale will come up and buy them.’”
“The California Association of Realtors also sells St. Josephs statues through its online store. The association Web site notes, ‘In a changing market, Realtors can use all the help they can get to sell listings.’”
‘Some Marin real estate agents are turning to a higher power amid slumping home sales.’
Oh man, Marin is doomed now. Every area that completely tanked went through a St Joseph phase. People are going to be digging these things up for centuries.
Future archaelogists will opine that it was a bizarre religious activity - “the burying of this heroic religious figure upside down must have signified the end of death, beginning of spring for these primitive peoples” .
Well, it figures. I was reading in the local paper today some churches are having prayer meetings at selected service stations praying for cheaper gas prices.
I was reading in the local paper today some churches are having prayer meetings at selected service stations praying for cheaper gas prices.
Well, it’s better than idolatry (St. Joseph’s statues)!
Ah yes, God wants to reward us for our devotion by having us all drive Dodge Rams and Ford F250s to go along with our McMansions. The new religion of success, not the ancient religion of sacrifice and obedience to the will of the Almighty.
Speaking of future archaeologists, what are they going to conclude when they discover the sites of some of today’s developments. “Man, they must have REALLY pissed off the Gods to be banished to live in such godawful places!”
With the shoddy construction and materials used at these developments, there will be nothing for the archaeologists to find.
St Joseph’s attorney says: Joe wants you all to know that anyone who buries his resemblance their yard will have a similar fate in their next life…..or the mattress is freeeeeeee.
St. Joe is pissed. I’d think people should know by now to leave him alone. Look what’s happened to the areas that tortured him.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
The old Marin self-annointed superiority will never die. They’ll hang on to their inflated prices until they are broke. Then, they’ll all be “special broke.”
Even more exciting are the Virtual St Joseph statues - http://virtualstjoseph.com
The Marinites should glom onto that one, because they won’t have to get their precious whitey fingers dirty.
The people in this country scare the shit out of me.
“The California Association of Realtors also sells St. Josephs statues through its online store. The association Web site notes, ‘In a changing market, Realtors can use all the help they can get to sell listings.’”
What a bunch of idiots!
I almost used that for the title, but I couldn’t get ‘Used House Salespeople Can Use All The Help They Can Get’ into the title bar.
Realtors are in a tough spot. They want to convince buyers that we have reached a bottom, but at the same time, to pay their bills, they need to convice sellers to drop 5% from the last comparable to keep transactions moving. Kind of heartbreaking.
Yes, but selling statues? What’s next, open house bake-sales? LAY pin-up posters? Mass HBB exorcisms? Flea market sales counters? (Oh, they already did that.)
I was not defending it, but have to admit my mom tried it. It eventually worked (the fact that she cut the price 15% since she buried it was probably irrelevant).
“LAY pin-up posters?”
Meh, she’d do in a pinch I s’pose.
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzQzNTY=
Yes, but selling statues?
I was surprised to read that they were selling statues of a saint as well, mainly because I would’ve guessed they were working for the other side.
BA in economics from UC Berserkely. Probably early 80s or late 70s. The calibre of economics teachers in those days was certainly not Austrian.
I assume they’re making a profit from the statue sales. What’s dumber, selling them or buying them?
A few years ago at the Whole Life Festival, my friend had $20 to spend. She asked me, “How should I spend it? The crystal earrings, the “special” cactus plant, or ask a psychic whether my house is going to sell?”
I suggested the cactus. Although a little too much of that kind of stuff might have been why she would ask such a dumb thing in the first place.
time to remove the middle man and go directly from buyer to seller in this case.
You are correct about Realtors being in a tough spot: double-speak is alive and well right now.
Looking at the real estate industry, the question is what changes will be wrought - if any - in the purchase and sale of a home. Who can be cut out of the transaction; how can sellers pay less to sell their home for top dollar, yet still get the assistance they need - all the while not getting taken by con men?
I’m looking at discounters, and don’t believe the ones that currently exist are the answer: none have serious market share in any metropolitan area. Don’t know that the business model of Redfin is it either as they primarily represent buyers. And most sellers are not savvy enough to go FSBO.
So the question is: will the real estate sales industry undergo dramatic long-term changes, or will it continue status-quo after all is said and done?
“I couldn’t get ‘Used House Salespeople Can Use All The Help They Can Get’ into the title bar.”
Saints aren’t in the business of helping opportunists. St. Joseph is one of my favorites, though.
Is there an opposite one to ensure landlords don’t sell their houses?
LOL - I’d buy one!
Be careful how you bury the statues. One guy last year had his buried statue pointing in the wrong direction and the house across the street sold instead of his own.
OMG Combo, that was too funny. Luckily I just finished my second cup of coffee.
I just spoke with my wife about the statues, and we have decided to buy some to send to all of our close relatives who currently have homes on the market (three at latest count) along with proper burial instructions.
Will a St Joseph work in Utah? Maybe Lost or Oly girl can recommend the proper voo-doo doll for the area.
Two out of our three siblings with homes to sell can do the Utah St Joseph experiment. Come to think of it, many Utahns (said siblings included) believe that Joseph Smith was a saint…
I believe the correct term in Utah is prophet, as in our case all of the faithful are the saints.
My guess is that an angel Moroni statue would be the conventional substitute here. Considering that I’m in Utah but not of Utah, though, I really can’t say for sure.
the angel Mor(m)on? That’s fitting.
Are solid gold Moroni statues available? One of those would be one friggin’ darn heck of an inflation hedge…
Let’s start making packets of magic house-sale seeds. They’ll actually be seeds to Joshua Trees, but we’ll just keep that our little inside joke.
That’s a good one.
Lost here - St Joe won’t work in Utah. Need the Angel Macaroni - whoops - Moroni statue. (Sorry if I offend any Mormons, just meant in fun, I started out pronouncing it wrong and it rhymed with macaroni and can’t get it right since).
In any case, there’s a niche there - the only Angel Moroni statue I’ve seen has been a huge thing in front of some temple somewhere, can’t remember where, but it was way too big for the average person to bury in their yard. It was actually even way bigger than the average yard of a McMansion. But I suppose it would work if the LSD Church ever decided to sell the Salt Lake Temple, but they’d need a crane to bury it.
Was LSD a flashback or did you mean LDS?
Jungian slip…
Flashback? I was always told that if you claim to remember, you didn’t really…
LOL iftheshoefits.
What were we talking about?
My post got eaten, or maybe censored, since it was about Utah dieties and I’m in Utah…
Can St. Joe work in Utah?
depends in whether he has a work visa or not, sounds like another illegal to me with a name like that…
When you cross “American Beauty” with “Amelia” you get RE agents burying St. Joseph statues in the front yard. What a vision!
Nice. Didn’t see “Amelia,” but still like to replay “American Beauty” from time to time. It has many interesting themes. Of course the phoniness of RE is one theme.
The running gag in ‘Amelia” is the yard gnome depicted in travel photos all over the world.
Property Rites
“The next week a group of nuns arrived to look at the house.”
Geesh. How NOT to write an urban legend. Too obvious.
If I hadn’t done so already, reading that line would certainly cause me to throw the bullsh!t card.
That kinda reminds me of something that happened to me yesterday. When I got here I signed up for this cable/cable modem package because my previous ISP, you may remember, went down so often. The DSL is rock solid, so I decided I didn’t need the second modem. I took it down to the office to turn it in.
Cable lady: “Ok, your new bill is $xx.”
Me: “But that’s only ten bucks less than what I was paying?”
CL: “Yes, but now you’re al-la-cart.”
Me: “Is that what you call it in Arizona? Cuz in Texas we just say you’re gettin’ screwed.”
Ta-boom..
LOL.
BTW I hate ISPs lately. Less speed for more $$$, and they say that’s a bargain.
Had an interesting situation this past week in So. Central UT. The primary internet service provider (name withheld to protect the guilty) decided apparently to consolidate their incoming and outgoing mail servers into one. So the outgoing SMTP name needed to be changed. The only problems were that
1) they didn’t bother to tell anyone
2) they didn’t take the old SMTP server off line, so no one knew that all their outgoing mail was simply going to a great bit bucket in the ether, because their sent mail wasn’t being bounced
3) until pressed, they wouldn’t admit to most people that anything had been changed.
Coupled with the mayor driving around in the town fire truck with a bull horn telling people not to water outside, there’s been lots to talk about here this week, more than most.
and whattabout that fire? whatsupwiththat? Man, Torrey’s hoppin’…
OK, read it in the local thread. thanks
Try speakeasy.net for dsl. Cant recommend them enough. Might be abit more thand the cheapies, but Worth every penny. No downtime to speak of, and last time there was a problem we were online with a tier 3 tech in 10 minutes, who fixed our problem, and doubled our speed for no extra cost, because for the amount wed been paying, their service had expanded.
Get St. Joseph buried.
Prey for commissions to continue!
Religion: If I wear this hat, jump up and down, leave food for this statue, (fill in the blank), then the God of the Universe will somehow be happy with me.
He doesn’t need our burnt offerings.
Isn’t St. Joseph the patron saint of home equity?
“The California Association of Realtors shows May’s median price in North Santa Barbara County fell to $297,000. That is down 32.8 percent. However, sales volume soared 85 percent from May 2007.”
Prices in Santa Barbara County below $300,000 sounds unbelievable. Is this figure correct?
Comment by Tim
2008-06-28 11:48:17
That is Lompoc. It was below 300k in Jan. Note that the city of Santa Barbara was around 900k at the same time. They are not really comparable.
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzgyOTM=.
The CAR May 2008 figures show SB county at 400K, down 55% from 996K in May 07, which was peak. How’s that for a financial ass-pounding!
How’s that for a financial ass-pounding!
Holy Joshua Tree… that’s leaving a few pricklies.
I’m sure I’m not the only one who will laugh when the CAR turns ‘half off’ into a positive spin!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I was fishing around for the St Joseph’s statue link on the CAR web site and found this article.
The comments are almost lame. Has the Lusk Center recently awakened from its long nap?
Speed of price correction is ‘almost unprecedented’
Inman News
The bad news: It’s “almost unprecedented” that home prices are falling “this swiftly and this steeply in this short period of time” in some California market areas.
That’s according to Delores A. Conway, director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast at the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate, who spoke Thursday during an economic and housing forecast presentation at PCBC, an annual builders’ conference.
Prices have fallen about 30 percent in the past two years in some market areas in the state, she said.
“Things look pretty bleak now,” she said, with foreclosures “really mounting” in some areas and prices falling sharply in inland California market areas like Stockton, Sacramento, San Bernardino and Riverside.
Historically, there have been price declines of similar magnitudes, Conway said. For example, there was a 20 percent decline in home prices in the Los Angeles area in a past market cycle. But that took place over a 6-year period, she noted.
More bad news: “Banks really don’t have as much money to lend. The lending criteria have really tightened up. The other piece is buyer psychology. When buyers see prices falling they don’t want to jump in … they may risk losing their down payment or any money they put into the house.”
The falling prices and rising foreclosures “tend to really create almost a downward spiral.”
That Lusk Center is a cancer on an otherwise outstanding university. They are practically an industry mouthpiece, one step away from FunYun and LAY.
It’s due to all of these lenders that are “almost” approving loans! Or all the FBs that can “almost” make their monthly payment.
I don’t even know what “almost unprecedented” means. Is it like “very unique”?
I think it means “a little bit precedented”. Almost, that is.
“A little impaled by the Joshua Tree.”
There… I can handle that translation.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Almost unpenetrated.
That is Lompoc. It was below 300k in Jan. Note that the city of Santa Barbara was around 900k at the same time. They are not really comparable.
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzgyOTM=.
Sorry for multiple post. Technical difficulties.
Probably your ISP.
My other post didnt show up. Note there is a huge difference between Lompoc and the City of Santa Barbara. It was below 300k in Jan while the City was around 900k.
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzgyOTM=.
A close relative of mine would prounce the city as “Lom Puke.”
oops “pronounce.”
I’m told the correct pronunciation is “Lom Poke” no kidding!
“Analysts who expected a quick recovery were overly optimistic. ‘Everybody got it wrong,’ Kleinhenz said.”
Only those that were overly optimistic and chose or were incapable of doing the necessary analysis got it wrong which includes everyone at the CAR.
“As for mortgages where initial payments don’t cover the cost, and debt grows rather than shrinks, Kleinhenz predicts that by the time borrowers must make higher payments, the economy will have improved, home prices will have risen and refinancing will be possible.”
For there to be any chance for his latest prediction to be correct, you’d have to completely misunderstand what’s happening in the market. Prices would barely fall, any recession would be brief and shallow, and the credit markets would quickly recover. None of this is going to happen.
By the time the economy’s improved and prices are rising again, most properties purchased with neg-am loans will be so underwater that refinancing will never be possible. Won’t most of those loans reset early as values fall and loan balances rise?
Kleinhenz is really funny. He makes the housing recovery dependent on rising home prices and other wish-facts.
I’ve been staying in West LA on business for the past week. I lived in LA from 1999 - 2005. On this trip, I have seen many more for rent, for sale, and garage/yard sales than I ever did in those years. Nope, it ain’t different here - just lagging the trend.
Oh, yeah, the signs are out. All over the place. Nothing moving that I can detect, though.
I have noticed that they only put the signs out on Sunday to give the appearance during the week that there are fewer vacancies and people trying to sell.
“IndyMac Bancorp Inc. appeared to edge closer to a meltdown Friday as its stock fell to 75 cents a share amid concerns that a collapse could leave the Pasadena-based bank’s borrowers and depositors in the lurch.”
I just stopped in an IndyMac branch last week to see if their rates were attractive. $75K money markets were paying 3.78%, 10 month CDs 4.10%.
Not enough for me to cross my fingers and hope to collect from the FDIC.
I need to move a bunch of cash out of Wachovia (money market accounts down to 0.5%), but it seems there’s no place to go. Maybe I should have bought a roll of Krugerrands on Wednesday - I would have been up more than a year’s interest by Friday.
I wonder how the FDIC is going to consolidate the banks that going down, with most of them not too far behind IndyMac. I guess they’ll have to pump in whatever it takes to convince the acquirers that it won’t leave them any worse off to take the deposits.
“Jerry took me to the home he bought about a year ago in Westlake Village. He was hoping to keep it, but since the real estate market has been on a downward spiral since, he’s changed his original plan. ‘We’ve got it rented now, the market has crashed on it, and because of that, we’ll probably swap it,’ said Sussman.”
Can anyone explain the reasoning behind this to me? So if you do a swap, keeping the paper value artificially high, you can’t also expect property tax relief as the value falls. The only possible advantage that I can see would be to set yourself up for a larger capital loss that you can take later, assuming that you know you will have cap gains to offset. Otherwise, it all monopoly money games.
“James Joseph, owner of Century 21 Ambassador in Whittier and Brea and Coldwell Banker Ambassador in Whittier, said his business has already absorbed 16 other real estate operations that have closed.”
” ‘If the economy erodes further from here it will probably get worse for them,’ said Jason Arnold, an equity analyst. ‘I wouldn’t rule out receivership. My gut feeling is that they won’t pull themselves out of this unless something changes dramatically over the near term.’”
Are you screwing with me Ben? Could you not find any other articles without buffoons sporting the two first names signature? Here is another pet peeve for amoney, my wife likes to collect all the various plastic food containers that you get from restaurants and stores. My peeve is that I can never find the correct lid for the container I put the leftovers in, even though we must have about 50 containers and they’re accompanying lids. Curse the plastic gods!
Hi Mr. John:
Get a very large plastic container, and keep the small ones inside of it. It reduces the flyaways.
Hahhahahahah
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/fun-with-photos.html
“James Joseph, owner of Century 21 Ambassador in Whittier and Brea and Coldwell Banker Ambassador in Whittier, said his business has already absorbed 16 other real estate operations that have closed.”
Don’t tell me the realtor whores are all going out of business and being eaten up by other vermin. This just can’t possibly be happening in every other city in California, can it?
Please tell me it’s not going to happen in other states too.
I just can’t sleep at night knowing the pariah dogs are dead.
Rante rante rante-
“Don’t expect the housing market to recover this year. Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, forecasts a turnaround next spring. He made that prediction Friday, speaking to 65 people at a luncheon sponsored by the Santa Cruz Association of Realtors.”
It is hard to comprehend this rosy picture, since DOW hit Bear Market levels. In levels of economic conditions it seems to me that house prices are in the same level today as they were in 2006. Those prices have to come down at least 50% to be in the level were the DOW JONS is.
Re: that +/- 4% return on your money. I’m from the school of thought that the return ON your investment is not nearly as important as the return OF your investment. Instead of the Krugerannds, take a close look at a bag of pre- 1965 dimes. $1000. face value can be had for only $12,500 or so, (inflation–what inflation?) and if push comes to shove you may very well be able to actually spend them. That may not be the case for the US$. Same for quarters, halves and the rest but the dimes are a little more “spendable”. Of course none of these bad things are really going to happen. Of course. La La La…
“You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, and those are pretty good odds”..James Garner as Maverick cc 1960
Yes but don’t tell anybody, they are all hooked on paper & plastic. Besides “they” won’t let that happen… : -)
“take a close look at a bag of pre- 1965 dimes. $1000. face value can be had for only $12,500 or so, (inflation–what inflation?) and if push comes to shove you may very well be able to actually spend them. That may not be the case for the US$. Same for quarters, halves and the rest but the dimes are a little more “spendable”. Of course none of these bad things are really going to happen”. Of course. La La La…
James Garner is one of my favorite actors. I loved him in the Rockford Files.
“if push comes to shove you may very well be able to actually spend them.”
I wouldn’t exactly call a return of 8% of principal a return of principal - but then, hey, what do I know - I keep buying gold at $900 and selling at $860. I figured I could do just as well buying a house (ref “Local Market Observations”).
Aren’t there another boat load of mortgage re-sets coming down the pike from August on? Seems to me I read somewhere around 600 billion?
“‘That’s keeping us going,’ said says Lindsay Riddle, membership chair of the San Diego County Escrow Association, noting that foreclosures represent about 80 percent of her business. ‘That’s pretty much all there is right now.’”
“‘I think we had 80 refinance openings a month,’ said Riddle. ‘It’s gone down to one or two a month now. The refinance business … has been eliminated.’”
35 billion unless there is an updated chart. August 2008 appears to be the all time high for subprime resets. This will make for an interesting 2009.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg
My mom is visiting me in Alaska this week. I read her some excerpts from today’s blog (she lives in the Brea/La Habra/Whittier area) and it caused some harsh feelings. She’s feeling kind of depressed because she wants to retire in a couple of years and still thinks she can sell it and walk away from a $400K mortgage at that point (I’m about 100% sure she’ll be underwater by then).
We’ve spent a lot of time talking about her moving here when she retires, at least during the summers. That cheered her up a bit.
“It caused some harsh feelings”
Why does the truth make people irritated?
Someone famous once said that the truth will set you free, if you will just be honest with yourself. OK, I added the second part. I think his name was God, and he really should know how all this works, right?
“The truth shall make you free” - The Caltech motto. I think it’s on my beer mug.
Drinking beer, yup, that’s when the truth really can set you free. You think I kid, but think about it - when are you most free?
Lost, I’d be the first to agree with you, along with a huge number of other HBBers I’d guess.
Beer will set the truth free….that’s for sure.
Yep, beer definately helps me to feel free to do things that I wouldn’t do sober. I love beer. And I am very thankful that I am not a beer snob. I don’t have to have a good beer to enjoy beer. I just need lots of beer to enjoy beer.
Beer goes great with this blog, good friends, alone, cool chick and on any day that ends in the word day.
“In Heaven there is no beer
(No beer?!)
That’s why we drink it here
And when we’re gone from here
All our friends will be drinking all the beer.”
I’m not sure that’s true. If there’s no beer, how could it be heaven?
Actually Lost, you didn’t add anything about scriptural truth, you just paraphrased other verses.
Speaking of beer going great with this blog, I think it’s about time. Torrey summer nights are so peaceful, temperature is perfect… see y’all later.
Beer and truth. What a way to end the week.
I am drunk on beer as i type this. I love beer.
Send my stomach to Milwaulkee if they run out of beer.
Lost, with all due respect to my mother…she has never been someone who has dealt well with brutal honesty. On the other hand I’m the complete opposite, usually to my detriment. She comes from that generation where appearances are everything, and one must be concerned with what the neighbors would think.
To her credit, she’s lightened up quite a bit in her old age. At least she has my dad’s pension and military benefits (he passed away about 6 years ago). Hopefully that can’t be garnished once she fulfills her destiny as a FB.
I had an aunt like that, a real sweetheart, but perception trumped reality every time. Overly concerned about the opinion of the world.
She was a rancher, spent hours on a tractor cutting hay or feeding cattle, then would go into the house and put on an expensive sweater and jewelry and slacks in case someone stopped by. Oh, and she had an arsenal of wigs she could slip on in case she had a bad hair day.
The Marin Independent Journal. “Some Marin real estate agents are turning to a higher power amid slumping home sales. The Marin Association of Realtors reports brisk sales of small statues of St. Joseph, the patron saint of real estate, since the association started selling the religious figurine at its San Rafael store a month ago
Hofefully, by this time next year, theses realtywhores will be practicing Voodoo, searching for virgins to sacrifice and praying to Ronald McDonald for jobs
KSBY report that SLO County median price is down 23% since last year, and sales numbers up 7%, prompted me to evaluate Morro Bay statistics once again. My mental Case-Shiller index for that town isn’t based on repeat sales, but on changes in asking prices for truly comparable low-end houses. Prices down at least 20% from peak, nowhere near rent-parity, but who knows; maybe in seaside towns one never gets rent parity. (?) Maybe I’ll try some lowball offers in the fall of 2008. Maybe not.
An FYI: Parts of Morro Bay are screwed, at least that’s my opinion.
The sea birds living in the bird sanctuary across the street from the golf course have expanded their turf. The grove of eucalyptus trees in the sanctuary extend into newly built housing units and an adjoining park. The protected seabirds have extended their nesting activities throughout these trees and their droppings constantly rain on the park and housing units below.
The park is unusable as a result of these fish-smelling droppings and the housing units are a mess as well.
MCcain’s A Tax Scofflaw…
Newsweek is set to publish a highly embarrassing report on Sen. John McCain, revealing that the McCains have failed to pay taxes on their beach-front condo in La Jolla, California, for the last four years and are currently in default.
Under California law, once a residential property is in default for five years, it can be sold at a tax sale to recover the unpaid taxes for the taxpayers.
The McCains own at least seven homes through a variety of trusts and corporations controlled by Cindy McCain.
UPDATE: Newsweek’s story is now online. The report notes that the McCains paid the bulk of their back taxes yesterday, but continue to owe additional taxes:
When you’re poor, it can be hard to pay the bills. When you’re rich, it’s hard to keep track of all the bills that need paying. It’s a lesson Cindy McCain learned the hard way when NEWSWEEK raised questions about an overdue property-tax bill on a La Jolla, Calif., property owned by a trust that she oversees. Mrs. McCain is a beer heiress with an estimated $100 million fortune and, along with her husband, she owns at least seven properties, including condos in California and Arizona. [...]
Shortly after NEWSWEEK inquired about the matter, the McCain aide e-mailed a receipt dated Friday, June 27, confirming payment by the trust to San Diego County in the amount of $6,744.42. County officials say the trust still owes an additional $1,742 for this year, an amount that is overdue and will go into default July 1. Told of the outstanding $1,742, the aide said: “The trust has paid all bills shown owing as of today and will pay all other bills due.”
the McCains have failed to pay taxes on their beach-front condo in La Jolla, California, for the last four years and are currently in default.
You don’t happen to have that link handy, do you? Methinks that while Michelle Obama has been accused of not loving her country, but she undoubtedly supports it…whereas (if true) it sounds like Cindy McCain loves her country, but can’t be bothered to support it.
Unfortunately for the McCains, this ‘recovering’ Republican has always admired action more than talk.
To me that seems understandable considering all they have going on.
BUT…
What I hear when I read this is that Mccain is as stupid as Bush in he is too stupid find decent help ie.. “I am not a micromanager”.
Well you better start MICROmanaging if you hire a$$holes to do your job for you.
The link is posted on Newsweek’s website. Was not supposed to be published til Sunday. Guess Newsweek’s “guest editor” Karl Rove gave the McCain’s a headsup the story was running, and they made tracks to get somebody to start paying the bills.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/143775
Um, I think a reporter calling for comments would have been sufficient head’s up. At work, when some one asks me what I think about the situation with customer XXXXX the first thing I do is distract them while I go pull the file(s), interview the relevant salesperson, quiz the office secretary, and search my e-mails. Those kind of questions ALWAYS mean bad news.
This is what happened to Argentina, among other failed economies….
Der Spiegel ^ | 06/26/08 | Gabor Steingart
Posted on June 27, 2008 1:30:36
The Shrinking Influence of the US Federal Reserve By Gabor Steingart in Washington
Humiliation for Mr. Dollar: Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Bank, faces a general investigation by the International Monetary Fund.
Officials with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have informed Bernanke about a plan that would have been unheard-of in the past: a general examination of the US financial system. The IMF’s board of directors has ruled that a so-called Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is to be carried out in the United States. It is nothing less than an X-ray of the entire US financial system.