June 30, 2008

The Sellers Aren’t People, They’re Banks

The Monterey County Herald reports from California. “The state Department of Real Estate has accused a local broker and his former partner of fraud in connection with Fresno’s controversial and long-delayed Running Horse Golf and Country Club. Tom O’Meara of Carmel and Scott Webb of Fresno are accused of fraudulently soliciting more than $6 million in loans from 15 people, many of them Monterey Peninsula residents.”

“Webb and O’Meara were the original partners in the project, once viewed as a catalyst for redevelopment in southwest Fresno. It was promoted as 780 upscale homes around an 18-hole, Jack Nicklaus-designed golf course that was slated for a PGA Tour tournament in 2007. ”

“Only two holes of the course were finished, and none of the homes around the links was built. No one is taking the blame for the mess.”

“Webb said said investors knew their loans were recorded, at best, as second trust deeds because they were aware La Jolla Loans Inc. loaned the project $10 million. ‘People loaned us money to invest in Running Horse and we took it,’ Webb said.”

“O’Meara, Webb and Running Horse LLC reportedly are under investigation for possible criminal wrongdoing in connection with the golf development. ‘I am familiar with that company, but my understanding is the feds are handling that,’ said Assistant Monterey County District Attorney Annie Michaels.”

“O’Meara, reached at his Pebble Beach home, said he plans to fight the state’s accusation. ‘The truth always prevails. The accusations eventually will be proven false and I have the paperwork to prove it,’ he said. ‘In the meantime, I got wiped out.’”

“Gary Vigen, a developer, architect and Running Horse investor, said Webb and O’Meara ‘lost virtually everything’ on the project, with O’Meara losing his Pebble Beach home, a house in Bass Lake and two houses in Fresno.”

“But other Running Horse investors don’t agree or sympathize. Joyce Scampa said many of O’Meara’s lenders were, like her, professionals who were experienced in real estate investment. She said they believed O’Meara and Webb because, ‘they’re very good at what they do. They lied.’”

“Scampa said she and other investors were duped by the seeming legitimacy lent to the project by the involvement of Jack Nicklaus and the PGA. ‘We had faith in Jack Nicklaus putting his name on there,’ she said.”

“Investors lost more than $35 million. ‘I know a lot of people are upset. A lot of people are angry,’ Vigen said of the investors.”

“The architect said the project’s design, with a course sunken beneath elevated house pads, gives pancake-flat Fresno a feeling of altitude. He said he is not alone in his continuing faith.”

“‘It’s a unique project and a lot of people still feel it,’ he said. ‘Eighty percent of the lots have spectacular golf course views.’”

The Milpitas Post. “Santa Clara County District Attorney’s Office investigators arrested former real estate agent Gloria Alvarez and her son, Ricardo Alvarez, in San Jose last week.”

“Gloria Alvarez, who had most recently been living in Mexico, faces 11 felony chargest. Ricardo Alvarez (also known as Felix Alvarez, Ricardo Pedraza, Ricardo Alvarez Pedraza, Felix Ricardo, Pedraza Alvarez, and Ricardo Rios), a licensed notary, faces seven felony counts.”

“Both mother and son could be sentenced to more than 14 years in state prison if convicted. Also charged in the complaint is Gloria Alvarez’s sister. The charged felonies involve three 2006 property transactions.”

“Alvarez has been the subject of more complaints to the Santa Clara District Attorney’s Office Real Estate Fraud Unit than any other individual real estate agent. Because many of her complaining victims have lost their home to foreclosure, investigators are having difficulty locating victims.”

The Burlingame Daily News. “The slumping economy and housing market apparently have led the developer of an 11-acre parcel with retirement residences in Foster City to ask for an increase in the number of units so that it pencils out financially.”

“‘If they don’t approve it, then I guess you might say we are back to the drawing board,’ said Sares Regis VP John Igoe. ‘Because as it is currently structured, it would be difficult to finance.’”

“Mayor Pam Frisella said the city has done its research on the project and such a facility is needed in the city. ‘(Friends of Foster City and other opponents) think we are getting taken advantage of and bamboozled. … do they think we are stupid and we haven’t done our homework?’ she said. ‘We have done our homework.’”

The San Gabriel Valley News. “A slowing economy may be responsible for a noticeable rise in the number of homes having their electricity shut off, utility officials and economic experts said.”

“Rosemead-based Southern California Edison, the county’s largest electricity provider, has pulled the plug on nearly 165,000 of its 4.8 million customers over the past six months thanks to unpaid bills, officials said. That’s up nearly 14 percent from the first five months of 2007, said Southern California Edison spokesman Gil Alexander.”

“‘This is another part of the downturn of the economy,’ Alexander said. “‘It shows the challenging times that customers are going through.’”

“‘The economy has slowed dramatically,’ said Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. ‘You have a lot of people that are under financial pressure.’”

The LA Daily News. “Times can be tough in the current economy, even for debt collectors. While San Fernando Valley area collection agencies report an uptick in business from companies seeking payment of overdue bills, they say it’s increasingly difficult to collect on outstanding debts.”

“‘Business is not great,’ said Ron Grossblatt, CEO of Grant and Weber in Calabasas, ‘If they don’t have the money, they can’t pay us.’”

“Clint Sallee, CEO of Fidelity Creditor Service Inc., said the Glendale-based firm is working more accounts but that revenue for each has ‘contracted.’”

“At Account Control Technologies in Canoga Park, president Dale Van Dellen’s company collects debt for educational institutions and the U.S. Department of Education, contacting people who have defaulted on their student loans.”

“The major difference in the current economic atmosphere that Van Dellen sees is that people can’t as easily refinance their homes to raise money to pay their debt.”

“‘The average payment is lower,’ Van Dellen said, ‘much less than a year ago.’”

“The debt collection industry can be an economic indicator of various economic trends, Sallee believes. ‘We are a month or two ahead of a CNN headline,’ he said.”

“‘We’re a barometer for unemployment,’ Sallee said, and likewise for the subprime mortgage crunch. ‘We knew about it before most people.’”

“One of the ‘most intriguing things’ that Sallee has learned about the debt collection business is the tendency that those with the ‘most ability to pay are the ones that are the most challenging to collect,’ he said.”

“Those people without the money to pay are the ones he called the ‘most honorable.’”

The Inland Valley Daily Bulletin. “The cost of purchasing a home has dramatically lowered over the past year, opening doors to those who may have been previously shut out of the market. Evelia Perez is a rural carrier assistant in Chino and has been renting homes in Fontana for the past eight years. She has decided to make the transition from renter to homeowner now that she has the opportunity.”

“‘I don’t want to rent forever,’ Perez said. ‘If I feel like if I can do something better for the house, or make it look better, I want to go ahead and do it. I won’t have to ask for permission. I want to have the security to be able to say that it’s up to me.’”

“‘That’s the silver lining in this market,’ said Vicki Carpenter, a real-estate agent from Coldwell Banker. ‘Sales were at an all-time low prior to this market. It’s exciting to see the people who were pushed out come back in.’”

“Along with her real estate agent Yolanda Ramirez, Perez has looked at more than 50 homes and made offers on five. ‘There’s a lot of shopping going on,’ Perez said. ‘This week we wanted to turn in an offer of $180,000, but there were already 14 bids.’”

“Ramirez said there have been thousands of foreclosures in the Inland Valley region and more repossessed homes are being added to housing listings every day. The Remax Champions Real Estate Web site shows more than 300 listings in Fontana alone.”

“‘Foreclosures are the hot item right now,’ Ramirez said. ‘You have to jump on it or lose out. When you walk into a house and it’s in decent shape then there will be multiple offers right off the bat.’”

“Looking to buy a home during a time when the market is offering more affordable houses also means dealing with banks will be more common. ‘We’re in uncharted waters,’ Ramirez said. ‘The sellers aren’t people, they’re banks. It is different dealing with that. It has been a roller-coaster ride so far.’”

“Although a significant number of foreclosures may increase opportunities for first-time home buyers, there is a downside. ‘Some of the houses have been broken into, people are upset when they have to leave their homes and sometimes they will make holes in the walls and damage the home really badly,’ Ramirez said.”

“So far, Perez has saved the necessary 3 percent required by her credit union to receive her loan, but in order to afford any repairs and home furnishings, Perez and Ramirez are looking into the Federal Housing Administration’s down- payment assistance programs.”

“The FHA ‘could help me with my closing costs so I can save that money and keep it for the future,’ Perez said. ‘My agent said I could pay $2,000 out of my own pocket so I can save $6,000 to furnish my home.’”




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228 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-06-30 15:35:26

‘Foreclosures are the hot item right now,’ Ramirez said. ‘You have to jump on it or lose out. When you walk into a house and it’s in decent shape then there will be multiple offers right off the bat.’

CAR: ‘Making FBs as quick as we can.’

Here’s another reversion:

‘Apton Plaza, a long-delayed mixed-use residential project planned for North Main Street, moved forward with some changes last week. Milpitas City Council, convening as the city’s redevelopment agency, voted 4-0 June 17 to see Apton Plaza converted from an initially planned 93-unit condominium project to a 100 percent ‘affordable’ 93-unit apartment complex at 230 N. Main St. ‘

Comment by BanteringBear
2008-06-30 15:47:01

I have to agree with the sentiments that the foreclosure “rage” will be shortlived, and many of these newly minted “homeowners” are future foreclosures in the making.

Comment by JohnF
2008-06-30 16:26:44

The best part is, as shown in the last story, that the FHA is financing all these newly-minted homeowners….

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2008-06-30 16:38:16

And we all know who’s financing the FHA - the poor saps called taxpayers.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2008-06-30 16:59:36

Actually, the bond market funds it. And no, they aren’t going to get a lot of this paid back IMO. Just like uncle sams creditors.

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 17:03:10

Oh, Ben, why you bringin’ these silly-ass distinctions to the masses?

You should swing slogans about the taxpayers and all. Throw in the gold standard or two. Let’s get squelchin’. It’s the summer of discontent. Why let facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory, huh?

 
Comment by mort_fin
2008-06-30 18:46:32

True enough - the bond market FUNDS these FHA DAP loans. But they will only do it because FHA (taxpayers) takes on the credit risk, and will pay the losses.

 
 
Comment by girlbear
2008-06-30 17:11:29

“I see dead people…..I I I mean bank people….”

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-06-30 16:36:53

My former landlady, who is quite the handywoman, bought a foreclosed property 10 years ago.

It had two houses on it, and there was a ton of deferred maintenance and repair work to do. Which took her many years to complete. She also forked out a lot of money for building materials.

Needless to say, she’s not in a rush to buy another foreclosed property.

 
Comment by Stephanie Ellison
2008-06-30 17:19:34

Hear that noise? That’s a whole level of real estate pancaking down in the building of real estate. Subprime collapsed on top of prime/commercial - which I’m waiting to see collapse next, then eventually, the foreclosure market will probably go at some point. People are supposed to stay clean out of a market like this until a bottom is reached. The bottom is reached only when the annual taxes reflect the post-boom valuation of a house, not the boom valuation of it. That’s what’s happening in Atlanta, GA. Houses are selling a lot lower there now, but people won’t buy because of the tax valuation on these houses. Why pay $3,000-7,000 in taxes on a house that can be bought for $10,000-15,000?

 
 
Comment by Pen
2008-06-30 16:02:19

100 percent ‘affordable’ 93-unit apartment complex…

SLUM!

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 16:17:38

No kiddin’.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-06-30 16:40:03

Not so fast, people. There’s a low income apartment complex within easy walking distance of the Arizona Slim Ranch. In fact, I can see part of the complex from my kitchen window.

Which may make you wonder if what’s coming is another Arizona Slim rant.

Sorry to disappoint, but this complex has never, never, ever disturbed a moment of my peace. And I do not like noise. Trust me on that point.

The owners and management are quite strict about whom they rent to, and they’re not at all hesitant when it comes to evictions. They also keep the place in good condition, which we neighbors appreciate. In fact, we even have one of our regular neighborhood meetings there.

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Comment by BanteringBear
2008-06-30 22:29:17

Slim’s a gal!

 
 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-06-30 18:04:56

Not in the Bay Area… not even in Milpits.

 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-06-30 16:14:00

Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.

Comment by DebtInNation
2008-06-30 19:34:48

I prefer the New King James version myself, but good quote. I almost posted it here the other day.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 20:25:52

So, since a husband can borrow from his wife, that makes
him a dull husband, or making his husbandry dull?

If my man’s husbandry was dull.. well I’d …

 
 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-06-30 16:38:40

“‘Foreclosures are the hot item right now,’ Ramirez said.

You want to start looking when they’re not. No, I’ll correct myself - you want to start buying when they’re not. Go ahead and look because this is hilarious!

 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:24:30

In my old neighborhood, they convinced the city council to approve a really stupid “luxury condominium” project right on the main street and backing up to a perfectly good residential neighborhood. The sane neighbors hated the idea, but others thought it would turn the area into like a mini Santana Row (which apparently is considered “good” by some). Of course, no one is buying the cramped, loud, polluted-air condos. I can’t wait ’till they go apartment. Those snooty old neighbors of mine will go apeshit.

 
Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-06-30 17:29:21

can the taxpayers “afford” it ?

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 15:35:48

You can dress up Fresno, but at the end of the day it’s still Fresno…

“The state Department of Real Estate has accused a local broker and his former partner of fraud in connection with Fresno’s controversial and long-delayed Running Horse Golf and Country Club. Tom O’Meara of Carmel and Scott Webb of Fresno are accused of fraudulently soliciting more than $6 million in loans from 15 people, many of them Monterey Peninsula residents.”

“Scampa said she and other investors were duped by the seeming legitimacy lent to the project by the involvement of Jack Nicklaus and the PGA. ‘We had faith in Jack Nicklaus putting his name on there,’ she said.”

Comment by salinasron
2008-06-30 15:46:36

If memory serves me, Donald Trump was doing some promoting for the golf course on a Fresno radio station.

Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-06-30 16:01:48

He was the centerpiece of a year-long attempt to off-load RH. But as usual, he was really into The Deal: extorting Fresno County for some major concessions. When they finally said no mas, The Donald split.

 
 
Comment by Troy
2008-06-30 15:47:32

hey man, don’t knock Fresno. It may be hot as hell in the summer but PV on the roof can take care of that. (Winters suck bigtime tho).

The house in Fresno I’ve got my eye on just dropped 8% on its listing after 200 days on the market. It’s a freaking palace — kicks ass on 90% of the stock in Los Altos — and it’s getting close to halfway back to its pre-bubble price of ~$350K. I’ll offer $400K or so when I can get this year’s finances in order.

There’s about 10 sq miles of quality housing stock — built 1980 ~ 2000 — that’s a pretty good value. It may be in the middle of nowhere, but it’s a daytrip away from the Sierras, SF, LA, and Pismo (just need electric cars to change the present distance tax).

Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 17:15:44

Fresno is like Bakersfield on steroids.

 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-06-30 18:08:29

Nothing personal, but you can have it. But then, I’m an old San Jose Stater (we were archrivals, once) so maybe that’s it. Excremento, I could tolerate (Delta breeze and all that). But then look at where I am… six months of drizzle. It might be affordable here soon, too.

 
Comment by Jane in St Louis
2008-06-30 19:08:38

Everyone goes on about how wonderful the CV is because you can drive to blah blah spot. With the price of gas, the commuting to the “good locations” arguement doesn’t look very attractive.

Comment by Bad Chile
2008-07-01 04:55:53

I once lived in a rural town in South Carolina. The locals loved to claim “it is two hours to the beach, two hours to the mountains, two hours to Atlanta.”

To which I’d reply “Which means it is in the middle of B.F. nowhere.”

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Comment by MontereyJack
2008-06-30 16:02:41

You can dress up Fresno, but at the end of the day it’s still Fresno…

This is the kind of attitude that dominates (even in Fresno), but it suffers mostly by comparison with nearby cities. The Central Valley is little bit of Texas in California, in terms of climate, economy, lifestyle, and politics. Until the recent bubble, was a place where a bartender married to a waitress could buy a house that is better than the average $750K Silicon Valley dump.

There was in fact a lot of ‘value’ there before the bubble, for Warren Buffet type investors, to buy and cashflow houses for the coastal spill-over and post-WWW economy. They always overbuild, however, so the real estate market crashes and half the owners go upside down for 5-10 years.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 17:33:51

There was a lot of “value” in Manhattan before the bubble so we don’t need to go to Port-a-Potty county to hear this.

The illusion that the Central Valley was something special was fierce. It needs to drop to far beneath rental-cash-flow to recover especially as the fundamentals are eroding (gas + water)

 
Comment by tx_john
2008-06-30 19:45:58

“The Central Valley is little bit of Texas in California”

Is there oil in the central valley? No, there is a bunch of salt water in the water table. Which is why the farm land is becoming increasingly worthless in the central valley. Guess, they all started flippin. Maybe they can raise buffalo from Catalina. We do have gazelle here in Texas.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 19:51:48

The Central Valley is California’s bible belt and hot as hades, thus the inevitable comparison to Texas.

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Comment by ahansen
2008-06-30 21:23:50

Is there oil in the Central Valley?
Yep.
Largest oil producing region in the State.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Joaquin_Valley

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Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-06-30 16:03:22

Don’t laugh. It could happen. I was by there the other day and there was this new landscaping company I have never seen before. Good idea pulling that port-a-potty behind their truck. Some company named FCJ, or something like that on the back of their orange jumpsuits.

Comment by Stephanie Ellison
2008-06-30 17:24:00

Orange jumpsuits… Sure that wasn’t Fresco County Jail or something like that?

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:32:47

I think you missed it.

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Comment by DebtInNation
2008-06-30 19:37:23

Don’t trust anyone who has “Scam” in their name.

 
 
Comment by dude
2008-06-30 15:39:24

A little help here?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palmdale/39854-W-22nd-St-93551/home/6099112

39854 W 22nd St
Palmdale, CA 93551
Price: $629,900
Beds: 4 Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 3,410 $/Sq. Ft.: $185
Lot Size: 2.56 Acres
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Ranch Year Built: 1990
Stories: 1 Level
County: Los Angeles
MLS#: F1745039
On Redfin: 213 days

The sales history on this property shows a transfer in Nov. ‘07 for $375K. That amount matches the sales price in 2001. Is it possible that the bank simply called for a “do over” subsequent to the 2004 sale for $675? What does this mean for the current position of the bank? Will an offer of $375 make the bank whole.

This is the perfect house for us, the right price will make the deal. I’d really appreciate any constructive input.

Comment by Misstrial
2008-06-30 17:29:01

As a former AV native, my only concern would be the proximity to the San Andreas fault. (The fault runs out of Gorman, 4-Points, LE/ Leona Valley and follows Palmdale Blvd to Desert View Highlands, becomes the bulge, and continues southwards along Ave. S on down through Juniper Hills, etc.)

Property is off O, not bad, I like those rural property homes over there but even more so off N. Rural but still freeway/shopping close which is good in times like these.

Check the crime reports first, then if OK, I think its a good buy at $375k.

I miss living at the AV CC townhomes - we lived on Bluebird Lane. Loved it. Lots of aerospace people and we lived next door to a test pilot. Saw a fighter jet demo given by Northrup to the South Koreans off one of my balconies. Lots of fun :)

Comment by dude
2008-06-30 17:46:59

We currently rent in CC. We like the big lots on the other side of the mall or in Ana Verde hills. The AV hills have a much higher quake risk IMHO.

It’s a good fit for us, at $375K I’d feel really comfortable, I’m thinking $340K to start ($100/sq.ft.) but I’ll be surprised if the seller’s agent will even present that offer.

Comment by hoz
2008-06-30 19:04:15

The sellers agent is required by all law to present offers. Come in with a pre loan approval or bank statement for full cash offer. A Realtor that fails to present the offer can lose his license.

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Comment by Misstrial
2008-06-30 19:21:21

You’re right - the Ana Verde Hills would be a greater risk, imo. Not worth it for the privilege of looking down on Palmdale Lake, for sure.

Personally, I think you should present your offer of $340k - what I would term a “starting point” for negotiation. Who knows - they may be willing to talk 2-3 mos from now if initially they are offended.

*sighs* If that location is R-2 it would be A-OK with me - chickens and everything :) :)

~Misstrial

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Comment by mrincomestream
2008-06-30 19:53:06

First Hoz is correct in his statement…and typically Realtors don’t play those kind of games with banks…they want the faucet to continue to run…and the last thing they need is an investor calling a R.E.O. Manager asking why his offer wasn’t looked at…happens more often then one would think and R.E.O. Managers use that as a gauge to indicate whether the Realtor is doing his job…sometimes the investor is directed to feed his offer through the Agent to test the integrity of the process…you have any indication the broker is dirty dealing call the banker…Realtors worst nightmare to even answer the accusation…

Secondly you missed the 25k second that was listed on that property…you have to find out whether you are dealing with the first lender or the second…if you dealing with the second they probably have far more in it than 375k…that’s the downfall with these online services sometimes the info is not accurate or doesn’t give an accurate picture…nothing that a visit to the courthouse won’t fix…

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Comment by dude
2008-06-30 20:50:10

Thanks for the info. You are right, I didn’t see a second.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:35:03

Maybe someone died and one family member bought another one off.

Comment by dude
2008-06-30 17:43:07

No, it’s REO.

 
 
Comment by pos
2008-06-30 18:05:20

The bank is asking $675K and you want to offer $375K. Sounds like a good deal to me. But, I would be surprised to see the bank drop the price $300.

Comment by dude
2008-06-30 18:07:52

Asking $629K, sold at peak for $675K. Sorry for the confusion. I think it has fallen out of escrow early ‘08 for about $550K.

Comment by lumpy
2008-06-30 22:53:57

hey my man i lived close to there on 18th and o-4 sold in 9/04 for 695k minus a new septic tank etc so about 685k…i bought my house back in mid 90s at 350k , so i guess i made out ok,, lived in the a.v. for 25yrs have no intention of going back, however that area is probably the nicest out there..if you plan on staying for a length of time then the lifestyle with some land around you is great, and good to raise kids with a pool etc…i got beat up real bad with real estate in the av and it takes forever to get appreciation in your investments out there,,,good luck to you

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Comment by dude
2008-07-01 06:35:29

Thanks lumpy, I’m most certainly going in with eyes wide open. I’ve been here for 18 years myself.

 
 
 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2008-07-01 07:09:16

How much would it have sold for in 1996? You shouldn’t pay a dime more than that, because that’s where the price will likely bottom once again. I’m guessing below $200k.

 
 
Comment by Troy
2008-06-30 15:39:52

SOYLENT GREEN IS . . . BANKS

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 15:41:12

Soil-Lent Green is Banks…

The Sellers Aren’t People, They’re Banks

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-06-30 16:23:13

RE: What banks served FBs circa 2001-2008:

“Mr. Chambers, Mr. Chambers! Don’t get on that ship…the book, I translated it. It’s…it’s a COOKBOOK!”

Comment by ws
2008-06-30 17:08:35

“Mr. Chambers, Mr. Chambers! Don’t get on that ship…the book, I translated it. It’s…it’s a COOKBOOK!”

ya gotta love theTwilight Zone!

Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 17:11:46

Actually, it was ‘cooked’ books

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Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:36:33

Aladinsane,

Have you been posing as Troy, trying to tell yourself off just because you know there isn’t anyone here who will disagree with you? Twisted.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 17:51:27

I go to the Trojan Horse races, on occasion.

 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2008-06-30 15:45:45

“It’s a unique project and a lot of people still feel it”

…. feel what.. exactly?

People this is it. The absolute final time! If you are EVER approached about some kind of “golf community” RUN! Do not walk, RUN! Seriously, have ANY of you heard where anyone other than the developer made out on one of these deals? Have any of you ever met anyone that was truly successful and hear them attribute it to the their “golf community investments”? Ever?

Comment by Pen
2008-06-30 15:59:52

Yes, I have heard of people that have made on the deals. It is usually the management company owned by the developer’s brother, father, sister, etc.

There is a really nice gated golf club community in Ipswich, MA. Too bad the HOA fee is at least $500/month. Oh, but it includes lawn maint., two shrub trimmings, trash removal, snow plowing and that’s about it. It does not include any golf membership, club house amenities, interior or exterior maint., etc. Also, most of the homes are built as duplexes, all have wood shingle roofs and all have fairly high taxes.

So, first you pay for trash removal and snow plowing via taxes, and then again via the $500/month, then you get to paint, shingle, etc.

Yeah, where do I sign up?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-06-30 16:41:31

I’m not sure I’d want to live in a meteor shower.

 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-06-30 17:27:36

feel what.. exactly?

The joshua tree sliding in. At least anybody who loaned those jokers money is feeling it.

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:39:13

I would characterize it more as a dig than a slide, wouldn’t you?

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 20:40:44

Oh please, nobody cares about the JT sliding in.

What matters is when the JT slides out. ;-)

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-06-30 21:19:47

I believe there are a few twists before they commence sliding it out.

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Comment by salinasron
2008-06-30 15:49:57

“Evelia Perez is a rural carrier assistant in Chino’

Anyone have a clue as to what this job is? The Postal System has rural carriers but I’ve never heard of an assistant. I would imagine that we’re talking less then $36K annual salary.

Comment by Mole Man
2008-06-30 16:19:10

Carrier route sort junk mail is the lifeblood of the USPS right now, so sorting all that into bundles by route would be my guess. As always, follow the money.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 17:13:38

Actually, netflix is making them some fierce money.

I asked my carrier whether he wasn’t bothered by delivering it, and he was, like, heck no, I get a fat bonus for it at the end of the year.

Sounds good.

Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2008-06-30 20:02:00

I wonder how much I would have to pay my postman to never deliver me junk mail for a year?

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 20:28:00

Have you tried slipping him a $20 bill? ;-)

 
 
 
 
Comment by skroodle
2008-06-30 20:37:48

I had a friend that worked for the Post Office on rural routes (in a large city) as day off relief/substitute. That may have been his job title. Hours were erratic and eventually he got his own route.

Comment by wolfgirl
2008-07-01 03:21:50

Sounds right. My sil was a rural carrier for years. She’s very glad that she’s retired now since they have to expense their gas. BTW, our city carriers are now walking part of their routes.

 
 
 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-06-30 15:55:47

“Gloria Alvarez, who had most recently been living in Mexico, faces 11 felony chargest. Ricardo Alvarez (also known as Felix Alvarez, Ricardo Pedraza, Ricardo Alvarez Pedraza, Felix Ricardo, Pedraza Alvarez, and Ricardo Rios), a licensed notary, faces seven felony counts.”

Ouro Alvarez Verde

Comment by hoz
2008-06-30 16:10:19

From now on you will have to sit backwards when you type. Ms. O. Alvarez Verde

 
 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-30 15:59:23

i know this is the Cali thread, but I got so excited when I saw this I wanted to share - TXChick, check this out:

http://www.casasollevare.com/

So…these overpriced POS houses in W. Coloroado are now seeing the chickens coming back to roost, there’s plenty of room here for a big flock. Divorce, selling the furnishings, wow. I remember seeing this one in the mags and thought it looked like trouble. Just heating it - and cooling (it’s about 100 now) - would take a big bag of chicken feed.

And I found it on Craigslist, which is beginning to look like the last hope for FBs.

Comment by Pen
2008-06-30 17:06:00

Maybe I’m just to much of a New England Yankee, but this thing looks like a theme park attraction.

For my money, I’ll take….

http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=91754&typ=1&sid=beee30b3540346209aa5aee353a5cbdb&pg=18&lid=1093797970&lsn=175&srcnt=175#Detail

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-30 17:48:39

Pen, yours is the real deal. Mine’s just a poser, a very ugly poser.

It’s also for rent for 4k. I sent the RE agent a letter saying I might be interested in renting it, but how would I know it wouldn’t turn into a foreclosure? Just yankin their chain, I’d rather camp out than stay in a fake Italian farmhouse in the redrock of W. Colorado. Talk about looking like a mirage. All the furnishings are on Craisglist, too. The gal is a doctor, divorce. Probably from the stress of paying for the darn thing.

Comment by rusty
2008-06-30 18:14:35

got any links to the craigs list add? I’d love to make some lowball offers on the furnishings!

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Comment by Big V
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:49:19

When I get my mansion with spiral staircase, I’m going to put on a big, poofy red satin dress and throw a housewarming party for all the neighbors, then get so smashed that I pass out on the sofa, and probably wake up the next morning with one of my eyebrows shaved off and my feet placed in a bucket of warm water.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 18:27:19

We’ve had our differences in the past but this is one of the most heart-warming things I have ever read.

I’m with you.

Which brings me to my favorite lines from Fitzgerald:

“I want to give a really BAD party. I mean it. I want to give a party where there’s a brawl and seductions and people going home with their feelings hurt and women passed out in the cabinet de toilette. You wait and see.”

Comment by KenWPA
2008-06-30 19:55:56

You all need to get out more. Come down to my place in Punxsutawney, PA and you can have all of that and more every weekend.

Hey it ain’t Oil City, but then again what is?

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Comment by JohnF
2008-06-30 15:59:25

“‘It’s a unique project and a lot of people still feel it,’ he said. ‘Eighty percent of the lots have spectacular golf course views.’”

You mean, if there actually was a golf course there….right??

Comment by Central Valley Guy
2008-06-30 16:09:02

LOL! What are they actually feeling? Screwed?

 
Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-06-30 16:10:12

Give the man a break. 720 home lots were clustered around two holes. Let’s see…at 400yds a hole that works out to about 10 feet of frontage per lot. Spectacular!

Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 16:25:29

Lived Once on the golf course, and won’t do that again.
After 3 golf balls through kitchen windows, narrowly missing me one time as I walked through house. Ball ricocheted into dining room.
3rd, time I ran outside to yell at golfer to take lessons.
For petesake.

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-30 16:31:12

When I lived in Moab, I was a few blocks from the very beautiful golf course, and sometimes I’d walk around in the evening and collect stray balls. I stayed off the course, cause I had my dogs, and the course is next to desert, so I got the benefit of both. I would collect an average 10 to 15 balls a shot. Must be some bad golfers out there. I donated the balls to the Humane Society thrift shop.

The best thing is finding golf balls way out in the desert, as the ravens love them and carry them around. I’ve found golf balls miles and miles from a golf course in the middle of nowhere.

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Comment by combotechie
2008-06-30 19:54:49

” … as the ravens love them and carry them around.”

Way off topic , but …

I once watched a crow play with a bright orange superball. Over and over again he’d carry the ball up high, drop it on the street and follow the apex of the bounces down as the superball lost its energy.
I watched him play with the ball for a half-hour or so, until he finally flew away with it.

 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-30 20:40:54

great story! very intelligent birds. Reminds me of a story about a raven in the winter trying to break open a nut, it accidently slipped and slid down the hill on its back, returned and spent the rest of the day sliding down the hill on its back, forgot the nut.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 20:44:23

LOL

Sounds like a lot more fun than actually hitting the ball and hoping it would go in the hole.

Now I like to golf, in my past, but watching a raven play with the ball..sounds fun!

 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-06-30 17:28:53

They get REALLY pissed when you start hitting them back.

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 18:31:24

Free country, no?

They’d be cheap enough that I would just buy a few hundred cheap ones, and lob them over when I was bored.

SIGH.

This is such a modest version of my childhood. We used to lob marbles at all the windows in the town back then. First one to smash three in a row got a free soda.

SIGH.

 
 
Comment by Stephanie Ellison
2008-06-30 17:46:57

WTF else are you going to get when you front a golf course like that?!? Anybody know physics on flowing balls? I’m sure some people have done it on purpose!

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Comment by Blano
2008-06-30 17:46:51

“You mean, if there actually was a golf course there….right??”

Oh, don’t be such a Negative Nellie, 1/9 of it is already there. :)

 
Comment by DebtInNation
2008-06-30 19:50:13

I’m sorry, I literally read that at first as:
Eighty percent of the lots have SPECULATOR golf course views.’
Shows how jaded I am.

 
 
Comment by JohnF
2008-06-30 16:02:34

“Mayor Pam Frisella said the city has done its research on the project and such a facility is needed in the city. ‘(Friends of Foster City and other opponents) think we are getting taken advantage of and bamboozled. … do they think we are stupid and we haven’t done our homework?’ she said.

Yes….and…..yes……..

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-06-30 16:38:22

Seriously, how can she even ASK that question? Of COURSE she’s done her homework. She’s looked up exactly how much kickback she can direct to friends and family. We know she’s not stupid! Just greedy and amoral!

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2008-06-30 16:04:07

From the Monterey Herald: (More good investments from High Flying RE schemes.)

“Depending on who you ask, when it comes to the troubled Monterra real estate development, investors in the Salinas trust deeds accounts are jittery, nonchalant or have read the writing on the real estate market walls and pulled out.
“I have no money left in it,” said Pacific Grove Councilman Scott Miller, who worked in the Salinas Police Department for 17 years. “It wasn’t necessarily a Monterra thing at all. It was just a general move on my part to move (my investments) to something perfectly stable. We’ll see where the tide is rolling.”

About 600 Salinas employees and former employees have money invested in the trust deeds compensation fund. About 41 percent of that fund, $17.2 million, is tied up in loans to Monterra. The development project is four months behind on its loan payments.

The trust deed fund is one of several savings plans offered to all Salinas city employees, said Finance Director Tom Kever.

Salinas employees who participate in the deferred compensation plan, a savings account similar to a 401(k) retirement plan, can choose from plans managed by four different groups: the trust deed accounts managed by Kever, the International City/County Management Association Retirement Corp., the Hartford Financial Services Group and the Central Coast Credit Union. Rates of return for each plan vary considerably.
Participants are allowed to change their investment option at the beginning of each quarter, so the first opportunity for them to switch their money will come July 31. So far, administrators have received five requests to take money out of the fund.
“We have several million in there that we haven’t invested for a while,” said accounting officer Miguel Obregon Gutierrez. “We can pay for all the cash withdrawals. I don’t know how many will ask for their funds. I’m assuming not many people will panic.”

But there is at least one city employee — who requested anonymity — who said she was very concerned about the prospects of the fund, and is ready to pull out all her investment.

“Many of us didn’t know the extent of this,” she said. “This is big stuff.”

Those who don’t have as much invested in the fund aren’t as jittery.

“I’m not as vested in it,” said Don Reynolds, redevelopment project manager. “It’s a long-term investment. I’ll let it ride. I have another 20 years to wait.”

But for some who see retirement around the corner, it seems better to play it safe.

“I was concerned, like everybody else. I talked to some other officers that this could be an economic downturn,” said Cmdr. Bob Eggers.

Close to retirement, Eggers decided to move his funds into the International City/County Management Association plan.

It’s a game he has played before. Initially, he had his funds invested in the management association, then when the stock market plunged, he moved them to the trust deed account. A few months ago, he decided to return to the stock market.

“I’m in it for the long haul,” he said. “I’m going to wait until the market rebounds.”

I’m sure glad I never had such a stacked deck deferred comp. plan.

Comment by Blano
2008-06-30 17:49:51

A few months ago, he decided to return to the stock market.

“I’m in it for the long haul,” he said. “I’m going to wait until the market rebounds.”

And I’m cringing.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:58:19

Now, I’m a bit carb deprived, so I might not be reading this correctly, but did that post just say that 41% of this retirement fund for city employees is tied up in one single real estate development? Did the employees know about this?

 
 
Comment by crisrose
2008-06-30 16:06:43

“So far, Perez has saved the necessary 3 percent required by her credit union to receive her loan, but in order to afford any repairs and home furnishings, Perez and Ramirez are looking into the Federal Housing Administration’s down- payment assistance programs. “The FHA ‘could help me with my closing costs so I can save that money and keep it for the future,’ Perez said. ‘My agent said I could pay $2,000 out of my own pocket so I can save $6,000 to furnish my home.’”

Oh for god’s sake lady- buy your own damn furniture! If you can’t afford to furnish the house - YOU CAN’T AFFORD THE HOUSE!

Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-06-30 16:40:50

Everybody knows that once you buy a house, riches rain down from heaven! If the FHA really wanted to promote affordable housing, they’d insist on 10% minimum from an account that’s HAD 10% min for at least 6 months, and half a years worth of mort/ins/taxes in the bank on top of it.

Comment by Mole Man
2008-06-30 17:13:18

And then the roof starts to leak and the foundation cracks. That the FHA didn’t even notice the bubble and react is telling, but that organization was rotten to the core even before the last 8 years of “government is the problem” management. You are doing a heck of a job there, Brian Montgomery and Frank Davis.

Comment by Thomas
2008-06-30 17:28:44

Whether the Bush Administration ever bought into small-government ideology any more than Bill “The era of Big Government is over” Clinton pretended to do is an open question, but surely there’s a place for at least a little skepticism about whether a monopoly with ample incentives for self-dealing (which government indisputably is, to at least some extent) can be trusted to act consistently for the public good.

If there’s an account in recent history in recent years of any bureaucratic organization conducting a self-audit and concluding that the public good would be better served by the organization cutting its size in half, I’m not aware of it.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-06-30 16:45:27

No kidding! I look forward to reading about these wankers next summer - after that furntiture has been strewn across the lawn and stained with who knows what.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-06-30 16:46:15

Oh, for pity’s sake, lady. Don’t you have any furniture now? And have you ever heard of thrift shops? How about asking friends, relatives, and neighbors if they have any furniture they’d like to get rid of? Or how about the Freecycle? Or Craigslist?

Or, here’s a thought: Furnishing your house over time. That’s what I did here. Took about two years to fill the house, and, no, I didn’t keep company out of here until then. There were times when the guests and I would stand and talk in the living room. There was another time when we flopped down on the carpet and stared up at the ceiling while we conversed.

Comment by mrincomestream
2008-06-30 20:00:13

“…There was another time when we flopped down on the carpet and stared up at the ceiling while we conversed…”

I like that…too funny…

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 20:50:03

In 95 bought too much house, did a 1031, and didn’t have a stick of furniture. Had some people over on borrowed card table with chairs. Had a little bitty tv 9″ b/w bought in ‘86.
I made a joke that,
“you want to watch a little tv”

and the wealthy amongst us, didn’t laugh. Decided at that point, wealthy = too stuffy.

I personally thought it was funny.

 
 
Comment by dude
2008-06-30 17:31:13

Re: downpayment assistance

I spoke to my realtor friend Saturday last and he was bragging about how he had gotten a guy into a beautiful home (4+3) in the hills south of Palmdale for $150K. As we talked about it I came to realize that this was still yet another no money down cash back to pay closing deal. Neamaiah program?

The agent said it was a great thing because the borrower was now required to qualify for the payment based on verified income. What happens when these people who gave zero down get laid off from one or both jobs used to qualify?

This years sales are next years walk-away foreclosures. We are a long way from the bottom on this. Anyone know of a medication that will seed logic into my wife’s brain so as to overcome her nesting instinct?

Comment by JCG
2008-06-30 18:00:54

A large club. Cavemen used the with great success for centuries.

Comment by dude
2008-06-30 18:05:33

No, I actually want to stay married… and out of jail.

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Comment by reuven avram
2008-06-30 18:40:17

Anyone know of a medication that will seed logic into my wife’s brain so as to overcome her nesting instinct?

You need to find a partner with testosterone instead of estrogen! And it’s legal now in California….

 
Comment by Jane in St Louis
2008-06-30 19:32:40

Seriously, go on about the school district’s woes and tell her to look into which districts are changing, loosing funding, laying off teachers etc. I’ve seen people chatter on about this crap for 4 hrs at a party, perfectly entertained. Those of us who hadn’t had our forebrains lobbed off went and started doing body shots in the kitchen. More booze and less hot air for us >; )

 
Comment by DebtInNation
2008-06-30 19:58:26

Dude,

I recommend getting daily listing updates from Redfin for your target homes and area. Show your wife the daily price reductions and print out some of your faves and compare them 6 months from now. If that don’t get any religion into her, nothing will.

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2008-06-30 20:05:17

I personally like the program…it’s far different than a typical no money down program…they make these folks go through budgeting and other classes it takes about 6 mo’s to complete if I’m not mistaken…and during the course of the program you have to put the equivalent of monthly costs for the amount you afford in savings and cannot touch it until you pass the course…having that money in the bank untouched is one of the requirements…

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 20:52:15

Have everyone on this site get your phone # and we can all call your wife to talk her down from the cliff.
We can all pretend it is a Suicide hotline of sorts and we must all help those in need.

If it doesn’t work, well it should cause by the time “we” get the calls to her, she will be seeing 4 Rent signs in her dreams!

 
 
Comment by Blano
2008-06-30 17:53:30

“The FHA ‘could help me with my closing costs so I can save that money and keep it for the future,’ Perez said. ‘My agent said I could pay $2,000 out of my own pocket so I can save $6,000 to furnish my home.’”

6 grand for furniture?? From one depreciating asset (house) to another (furniture). Good Lord, this thread is really making me cringe (again).

 
Comment by reuven avram
2008-06-30 18:37:37

but in order to afford any repairs and home furnishings, Perez and Ramirez are looking into the Federal Housing Administration’s down- payment assistance programs.

Do you mean to tell me that Uncle Sam effectively takes my hard-earned tax dollars to buy curtains and sofas for people? (in the form of Down Payment Assistance?) Unbelievable!

 
 
Comment by JohnF
2008-06-30 16:10:26

“‘That’s the silver lining in this market,’ said Vicki Carpenter, a real-estate agent from Coldwell Banker. ‘Sales were at an all-time low prior to this market?. It’s exciting to see the people who were pushed out come back in.’”

No Vicki, sales were at an all time high prior to this market due to “EZ Financing”. Someone needs to check and see if Vicki’s real estate license is valid, I’m not sure she really works in the real estate industry.

Comment by JohnF
2008-06-30 16:43:08
Comment by Stephanie Ellison
2008-06-30 17:55:26

Too bad it doesn’t have a photo, so that you can copy it and add it to a “rogue’s gallery.” A gallery where all the guilty’s photos are posted so that come post-America, they can be dealt with in local court.

 
 
Comment by Blano
2008-06-30 17:54:35

Her bass ackwards thinking certainly qualifies her for it.

 
 
Comment by mrincomestream
2008-06-30 16:15:12

“…“‘Foreclosures are the hot item right now,’ Ramirez said. ‘You have to jump on it or lose out. When you walk into a house and it’s in decent shape then there will be multiple offers right off the bat.’”

“Looking to buy a home during a time when the market is offering more affordable houses also means dealing with banks will be more common. ‘We’re in uncharted waters,’ Ramirez said. ‘The sellers aren’t people, they’re banks. It is different dealing with that. It has been a roller-coaster ride so far.’”…”

Her agent hasn’t been in business long….which is a shame…she’s going to cause that lady to make a foolish decision…especially in that area…

All one has to do is wait for about a year and you’ll be able to buy the house of your dreams for pennies on the dollar…let the newbie investors throw around the hard money loans to scoop up inventory…all one has to do is be patient…

I’ve seen this all before…and it didn’t end well…but this time it will be worse…

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-30 16:22:49

You know, I follow all the posts from Cali and Fla and all over, but it’s just been pretty darn theoretical, as nothing much was happening in SE Utah and W Colo.

But I kept the faith. Faith is kind of like those connect the dot puzzles, where you don’t know what you’re getting, but you keep on anyway.

I kept on, and now I’m seeing out here what you guys have been talking about. It’s a whole new feeling, like the first time I saw the Grand Canyon after reading about it for years as a kid.

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-06-30 16:28:51

Hang in there, Lost. I am in the same boat in Alaska. When I talk about a ‘housing bubble’, people look at me like I just got dropped off by the short bus and nervously proclaim “It’s different here”.

I feel like that kid from the Sixth Sense: “I see foreclosed people!” ;)

Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-06-30 17:25:49

I feel things.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2008-06-30 17:39:21

Hey, OV,

Can you post the OTR photo site and your email again? I hope to see some of those SF photos. Especially the ones out on Haight street.

 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-30 17:43:00
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 18:12:12

I don’t think the Haight street pictures ever made it to the blog. I can forward them to Ben when I get home. I might not forward the one with me in it though, since I look like a full-on alcoholic in it, and I’m trying to come off like a normal person, you know.

 
Comment by KenWPA
2008-06-30 20:12:24

By Normal you mean a half assed alcoholic?

Leave normal behind and become exceptional.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 20:59:11

Lost, you and I could be sisters, albeit, I would be the more seasoned one.

You guys look great.

Would love to see more photos.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 21:00:56

And, LA to LV..you look very familiar. Are you in the desert often? Or else you have a twin!

 
Comment by sfbayqt
2008-06-30 22:44:21

Big V,

Did you get the picture that I sent to you from Haight St? If not, I’ll send it to Ben to send to OV.

Is that the one that you don’t want to forward? It’s the only one that I’m in. :-( :-(

BayQT~

 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2008-06-30 17:47:26

“I see foreclosed people!”

The phrase I’ve seen around here for some time:

“I see debt people”

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Comment by Halifax
2008-06-30 17:57:49

Wife has been reading the ADN residential RE section x10+ years, and has her own internal database - prices (including high end) sideways to somewhat down ~5%, volume way-way up, with little movement except under 250K.

The 750K+ crowd is expecting the gas pipeline to propel houses past a million.

Hundreds of Anchorage foreclosures on yahoo alone.

Local bank CEO (unnamed) is not at all happy with all the bad construction loans on the books.

Valley hurting.

(Not many RVs this summer either)

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Comment by dude
2008-06-30 17:23:39

I track Cedar City, UT as a possible location for retirement. The median wishing price is still in the stratosphere, $375K. I Palmdale, CA where I live the median wishing has fallen from a similar level last year to $250K this year.

Utahr is just a year behind, they will fall of the same cliff because they are connected to the same locomotive.

Comment by steadykat
2008-07-01 08:23:25

SFR permits in Iron County (includes Cedar City):

1st quarter 2006 (108)
1st quarter 2007 (72)
1st quarter 2008 (16)

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Comment by lostangels
2008-06-30 16:28:43

Hey Mr. I, what do you see on the Westside these days? any good stories?

Comment by mrincomestream
2008-06-30 17:26:05

I’m really trying to keep a low profile in all honesty…I really don’t want to be involved…or experience what’s about to come down again…older, wiser, don’t really have the energy… it becomes a scenario where you see a lot of depressing things and it takes a lot to keep a positive karma…after considering making a run in the slop I’m not up for it I’ve become to soft (LOL)…I might make a few choice buys here and in AZ but other than that I’m a spectator at this point and will continue on that path…servicing a few clients I have been working with for years will be about as far as I go…

I said all along prices will drop about 50 to 60%…After seeing reports that it has dropped 35% since April of last year and knowing of one anecdotal example where it has dropped 40% at least in the Inland Empire…I think my mark is going to be overshot and quickly…it’s happening to quick at this rate the market will be in Mid 90’s pricing by this time next year…especially if there is a significant increase in rates…which has been alluded too…that’s a lot of pain coming down the pipe…

Comment by dude
2008-06-30 17:52:17

Agreed, I made a comment the other day that this whiplash effect is making fools of even the most bearish among us.

I think Hoz is right, 80% off peak in less desirable areas of socal is easily within reach, thus my desire for a magical potion that will cause my wife to see reason.

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Comment by hoz
2008-06-30 18:27:47

Never pick bottoms. I am sorry I said 80%. It is a target, the bottom could be far lower. For a peak price to go from 1MM to 200K sounds great, but you might feel sick when it ticks 150K. My error could be off as much as 35% lower. And it is not just the IE. It is all non affordable areas.

The easiest way to calculate the prospective purchase price is find the price of a similar house in 1994 adjust for inflation and subtract 10%.

(The reason I use 1994 is that year the Federal Reserve allowed banks to make loans up to 1.4MM without any bank reserves - the start of the low doc loans; an excellent argument can be made to use the year 1983 for a similar reason)

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2008-06-30 19:22:46

80% off peak puts you about right on the mark of about 93-95 pricing…where you could buy the lower end of Moreno Valley, Lancaster, Palmdale, Riverside et al for about 75 to 80k some cases 90k….if you shoot 10% off of those numbers in theory that’s not a big deal…but at 4.6 annual increase from that point it’s a long and hard struggle back to the top…there goes the retirement plans, kids college…hell life for the most part…what a horrible position to be in…

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 19:44:57

I see Nineteen-Eighty four pricing, in the future…

WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 21:05:10

Mr I…that ‘93-94 would be right on the nose for prices
here in the desert.
$70’s+ and then the 2 condos I bought for 20k each.
Those were the prices here when things were bad.

It could hurt some, but us, the renters.

 
Comment by holytrainwreck
2008-06-30 21:17:27

DEBT IS WEALTH

 
 
 
 
Comment by SKB
2008-06-30 17:14:58

“All one has to do is wait for about a year and you’ll be able to buy the house of your dreams for pennies on the dollar”.

Is this now the general consensus?

I am going make an offer on my dream home this week.
I did manage to get my money out of IndyMac bank (big sigh of relief after almost fighting with them) and I should be getting the check tomorrow.

Please, some correct me if I am making a mistake but I am prepared to offer .50 cents on the dollar for a brand new, over the top home in Loxahatchee, Florida. The kitchen has been ripped out so the granite is gone, solid wood cabinets gone, appliances gone. The home has lovely teak bedroom flooring, two master suites and beautiful tile flooring all set on the diagonal through-out entire home. The house is a “wow” home 3300 under air.

Would I really be over paying picking this up ( If I am lucky) for .50 cents on the dollar? The land was purchased for cash in 2003 for 80,000 so I am only dealing with a judgement amount of 322,000 for the house only. The land would end up being free. I may be laughed out of the bank or I may get lucky. So my offer is 161,000.

I will have to put money into a new kitchen but I still think this price would be worth it..
What do you think anyone??

Comment by catspit1
2008-06-30 17:33:41

o just make the offer for gods sake and tell us how exciting it is as we hold our collective breath.

Comment by SKB
2008-06-30 17:44:40

LOL,

Easy for you watching on that side of the fence, I certainly don’t want to make any mistakes over here. :)

I do have some concerns over this part taken from the property appraisers office. What exactly is “normal financial conditions”.

SHORT SALES, FORECLOSURES, ASSESSMENTS AND YOUR 2008 TAXES.

“If you purchase a property in a foreclosure or short sale, your actual purchase price may not reflect the just (market) value used for determining your taxes. Instead, Florida law requires our office to use the reasonable market price of a sale of similar homes in your neighborhood (or a similar area) sold under normal financial conditions to determine the assessment. Regardless of your 2008 purchase price, assessments in Florida are done a year in arrears. This means your 2008 assessment is based on the sales in your neighborhood (excluding foreclosures, short sales and non-arm’s length transactions) between January 2, 2007 and January 1, 2008.”

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Comment by catspit1
2008-06-30 17:54:21

well get an ATTORNEY then man, the advice you get on here for free is worth what you pay for it…

 
Comment by dude
2008-06-30 17:55:04

This can be mitigated with provable comps. If not immediatedly, eventually the market will start to move again and you should be able to challenge any unreasonable assesment with said comps.

 
 
 
Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-30 17:38:24

Hey, YOU know what you can live with. If it falls after you buy it, who cares if you can afford it and love it? Ask yourself those questions and see if you still want it, if so, goferit.

But also look around the neighborhood and ask yourself what about if it falls…

 
Comment by Blano
2008-06-30 18:00:32

The offer doesn’t sound so bad compared to the judgment, but you may be getting a little too emotionally attached to this place.

Don’t be surprised if the bank comes back with “give us your best offer” or some crap like that. Then you’ll have to decide just how attached you are to this place.

Comment by SKB
2008-06-30 18:46:06

That offer is my best offer, there are “several” other ones available. lol

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-06-30 20:36:13

LOL

Best. Line. Ever.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Stephanie Ellison
2008-06-30 17:57:33

Don’t forget that these homes need to have their tax assessment revalued. People are not going to buy houses with taxes based on boom valuations. When tax assessments are redone, especially in hard-hit areas, municipalities go bankrupt.

Comment by SKB
2008-06-30 18:04:10

“When tax assessments are redone, especially in hard-hit areas, municipalities go bankrupt.”

This just gets more and more grim as we go along.

My industry is booming, our major client (credit card issuer for small business) hired my company to collect for them, they wanted bigger guns. We may have more business but the paper and first party is getting harder and harder to collect.

 
 
Comment by Jane in St Louis
2008-06-30 19:35:29

It does feel very 1992 doesn’t it?

Comment by DebtInNation
2008-06-30 20:08:20

More 1929 if you ask me.

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:20:03

Mayor Pam Frisella said the city has done its research on the project and such a facility is needed in the city.

Um, if the facility is “needed”, then why can’t the builder find buyers who are willing to pay enough for a profitable return?

Comment by JohnF
2008-06-30 16:34:35

How dare you!

Mayor Pam Frisella has told us that:

- the city has done its research on the project
- the city is not getting taken advantage of
- the city is not getting bamboozled
- the city is not stupid
- the city has done its homework

Just leave everything in the capable hands of Mayor Pam Frisella…..

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-06-30 16:42:45

She means that her cousin’s contracting business ‘needs’ the job, so of course taxpayers should shut up and let her get on with looting the city coffers.

 
Comment by hoz
2008-06-30 18:31:29

She just called her buddy ‘Suzanne researched it’ and now its full speed ahead.

 
 
Comment by Mole Man
2008-06-30 16:23:20

Yo, check out this fixer in progress:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/OAKLAND/9530-WALNUT-St-94603/home/593793

Price: $66,950
Sold Sep 01, 2006 for $400k
Sold Dec 09, 2002 for $210k
Sold Aug 05, 1994 for $80k

It’s got potential. Might want to check for liens too. It seems that for some properties the watermelon has landed.

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 18:21:06

I have a feeling it’s going to sell for more than asking. The banks are being smart enough to let the sales happen through multiple bid.

Comment by mrincomestream
2008-06-30 20:13:10

I don’t know about that…well maybe a little but 2900 sqft lot, 600 sqft of termite infested wood in what looks like a very suspect off, with the bank calling for cash only…75-80k max but in reality it’s not even worth the 66k…

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:29:29
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:33:06
 
Comment by Pen
2008-06-30 16:35:09

“Alvarez has been the subject of more complaints to the Santa Clara District Attorney’s Office Real Estate Fraud Unit than any other individual real estate agent. Because many of her complaining victims have lost their home to foreclosure, investigators are having difficulty locating victims.”

Maybe they check her basement, garage, attic, village of origin, etv.

Trust me, “real” complaining victims make sure they can be found..

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:19:15

Exactly. These so-called victims are probably rolling in a pile of cash right now somewhere in Baja California, reading this blog, drinking Coronas, and eating fish tacos with extra white sauce and limes.

 
 
Comment by Big V
 
Comment by Big V
Comment by Blano
2008-06-30 18:02:54

Is there a pic in there somewhere??

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 18:33:39

No, I was trying to trap you.

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:41:58
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:43:44

Ben, your available HTML tags make no sense to me. I hope I haven’t crashed your site.

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:56:03

Oh, I guess they were waiting for you to approve them. Cool.

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-06-30 17:00:58

You had me worried there for a minute Big V

 
 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2008-06-30 16:45:01

“…“‘Foreclosures are the hot item right now,’ Ramirez said. ‘You have to jump on it or lose out. When you walk into a house and it’s in decent shape then there will be multiple offers right off the bat.’”

Yep, they’re not making foreclosures any more…or so the CAR would have the rubes believe. She probably fails to mention to her “client” that most of those offers will be ultra-lowballs. I’m looking forward to second-wave foreclosure FB sob-stories cropping up, since that’ll bring capitulation that much closer.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-06-30 16:48:34

As in, sniff! I don’t know how to do major home repairs! And, sob! That repair guy I hired didn’t either! And now, sob! I’m going to have to spend even more money to get the job done right!!!

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-06-30 16:51:30

I guess there’s more dumb money left out there…it’ll find its way home too…eventually.

Comment by dude
2008-06-30 17:38:26

I told this story once already but it’s worth the retelling:

A friend of a friend sold 50+ properties in the AV in ‘05 because he correctly saw the market as ready to collapse. Said infestor cleared a cool million cash from the proceeds.

He dove back in “snapping up” bargain basement properties in late ‘06, early ‘07. He failed to note that there was no water in the pool, and it was filled with ‘gators.

He is currently renting a room in his ex-wife’s house.

Jocularity!!!!

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-06-30 18:47:53

Ouch!

I know it’s been posted here a gazillion times - but knowing when to walk away from the table is one priceless bit ‘o knowledge.

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Comment by Ed G
2008-07-01 04:59:17

Seriously good advice, edgewaterjohn. When people come into money, they seem so intent on re-leveraging and re-mortgaging themselves. Why not just put that money away and get a real goddamn job and take it easy? I mean, isn’t a million dollars enough to make easy living? If I had a million dollars I’d buy a small-medium sized single family home in cash, a new car, and put the rest into bonds or something. Jeez.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2008-06-30 16:45:37

The truth always prevails. The accusations eventually will be proven false and I have the paperwork to prove it,’ he said. ‘In the meantime, I got wiped out.’”

And, just like Ahad, Captain O’Mera goes down with his ship. And a good bible will not help him in this case, “The truth shall set you free”.

 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:45:48

LAY

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:53:59

Hey everybody:

Hover over the secret encoded message above to reveal the clue.

Comment by JP
2008-06-30 17:16:57

Damn. I was all excited for a minute there.

Comment by Lost In Utah
2008-06-30 17:39:30

LOL!!

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Comment by Blano
2008-06-30 18:04:22

Is that a promise??

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:47:26

Got one!

Why does my address bar keep getting appended every time I try to use a new tag? What does all this mean?

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=4698#comment-1435945comment-1435948comment-1435952

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-06-30 17:13:04

Looks like that URL needs to go on a diet. Or maybe the WordPress gremlins are saying that it’s time for a new version.

Comment by JP
2008-06-30 17:20:37

It’s the way that wordpress (php?) puts you back in the same place after your comment. Unfortunately, it seems that it’s not smart enough to strip out prior commenting; so if you make multiple comments, then your url keeps expanding.

Why all the html experimentation?

 
 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2008-06-30 17:38:14

It means to lay off the booze before posting!

:D

Seriously, I think your computer is possessed!

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:50:15

Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:11:37

I don’t think I did that one right. I give up, for now.

Comment by dude
2008-06-30 18:02:26

But we are all enjoying your efforts so much!

Comment by desertdweller
2008-06-30 21:11:26

Well, Dude, and Big V, I was going to say the opposite.
Big V…maybe tomorrow?
But the gremlins are after you tonight, and I am getting dizzy. qemu, html..pdf files ewwwwwwww

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 16:51:09

“‘It’s a unique project and a lot of people still feel it,’ he said. ‘Eighty percent of the lots have spectacular golf course views.’”

“Only two holes of the course were finished, and none of the homes around the links was built. No one is taking the blame for the mess.”
_______________________________________________________________

80% of the lots have a view of 2 holes?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-06-30 16:53:26

Ever heard of the fine old expression, “ripping him/her a new ***hole?” In this case, 80% of the lots have a view of that process.

 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-06-30 17:32:00

That’s the only math I can figure out lad. Good oh.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 16:52:32

Foreclosuresskins are the hot item right now

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:07:51

Foreclosuresskins are the hot item right now

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 17:09:02

I don’t see why anyone would want to use the del datetime tag.

 
 
Comment by DebtInNation
2008-06-30 20:12:46

Talk about having skin in the game.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-06-30 16:52:43

“Only two holes of the course were finished, and none of the homes around the links was built. No one is taking the blame for the mess.”

I always find it amusing when homes located ten miles in from the coast in San Diego are advertised as having an ‘ocean view,’ but this pales in comparison to advertising a golf course in Fresno as a ‘links.’ How many hundred miles inland is Fresno?

Main Entry: links·land Listen to the pronunciation of linksland
Pronunciation: \ˈliŋ(k)s-ˌland\
Function: noun
Date: 1926

: seaside terrain that is characterized by rolling hills of sand and is often used as the site of golf courses

Comment by SaladSD
2008-06-30 18:19:00

New term I noticed at a 2 year old development in Carlsbad we toured yesterday just east of the I-5: Ocean peek. Hah, guess you have to stand on a footstool to see the ocean from the closet window. But, heck, it’s worth an extra 50,000. Actually, this development is bizarre. Homes have been selling in April for $1.5 - $2 million! and yet there’s For Sale signs everywhere, with asking prices $1.4 Million plus. Amongst the grandeur of these 5,000 sf behemoths, one empty home has a dead, dead, dead lawn. Looks like a black eye. Who’s buying this stuff? Zillow shows the prices appreciating, though everywhere else in the region the “value” is dropping something like $5K a week. (Heron and Sagebrush are two of the street names).

Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-07-01 07:02:52

Salad, I’ll go check it out w/camera.

 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-06-30 16:54:35

‘We had faith in Jack Nicklaus…’

Thou shalt have no other gods before me.

Worshipping the “Golden Bear”!

Comment by friar john
2008-06-30 17:29:54

They should have had faith in St. Nicholas instead. No gifts under the Christmas tree this year.

Comment by vozworth
2008-06-30 18:53:13

padre, you must have forgotten the stimu-lata thats gonna be on everyone this october….

Yours in Forced Money-staries,
more manna from treasury

Comment by friar john
2008-06-30 19:29:45

You have a choice between giving to a food bank this Christmas or dropping off an unwrapped toy to Toys for Tots. Which one do you choose? Even the thought of one child having to go from a private school to a public school this school year causes those with the hardest of hearts to weep tears.

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Comment by wolfgirl
2008-06-30 21:21:03

neither

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 17:10:21

“O’Meara, reached at his Pebble Beach home, said he plans to fight the state’s accusation. ‘The truth always prevails. The accusations eventually will be proven false and I have the paperwork to prove it,’ he said. ‘In the meantime, I got wiped out.’”

Imagine living in Pebble Beach, and getting wiped out by Fresno?

Insult, meet injury

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-06-30 17:31:27

“I threw my drink”
I threw my drink across the lawn”
M Mull

 
 
Comment by friar john
2008-06-30 18:24:25

I say, where did the liberated equity go in downtown San Diego?

MLS# 081034250
850 Beech St #316
Beds/Baths: 2 / 2
Square Feet: 1,070 sf
Price: $379,900

Bank owned foreclosure. Let us take a look at the sales history:

Sales History
Date Price Held Return Annual
08/30/2002 $315,000 n/a - -

Note that at its peak, this place had a so-called market value of at least $650K.

 
Comment by friar john
2008-06-30 18:54:23

Webb said said investors knew their loans were recorded, at best, as second trust deeds because they were aware La Jolla Loans Inc. loaned the project $10 million. ‘People loaned us money to invest in Running Horse and we took it,’ Webb said.”

What irks me as an admirer of La Jolla is this commercial lending company, La Jolla Loans Inc., doesn’t even have its offices in La Jolla. They are up in Del Mar, a wannabe, parvenu based, city to the north of La Jolla. I think the city of La Jolla should sue this company for besmirching the city name and all its residents. If La Jolla is thought of as alaskan king crab, Del Mar is imitation Krab and one thing californians don’t want in their california rolls is Krab.

Comment by peaceful
2008-06-30 21:18:52

speak for yourself. I grew up in del mar in the good old days before it became what it is today. there was nothing wannabe about it. it was the real deal.

today there are a lot of lame people there, admittedly, but if you don’t know the history of it, and all the great parts of it, don’t try to talk about it. or at least that is this lifelong californian’s opinion.

Comment by friar john
2008-06-30 22:16:45

I lived in Del Mar during the mid 90’s for a couple of years and what happened is that Torrey Pines high school became a magnet for those vexing parents who wanted their kids to get into Ivy league schools. Do you know these types of parents? The bio-tech industry destroyed Del Mar in the name of “progress”. Peaceful, tell me more about the good ole days in Del Mar as you seem to be the resident historian about the place. I will continue to call ‘em like I see ‘em and if that offends you, so be it.

 
 
Comment by Cassandra
2008-07-01 16:57:07

mmmm, crabs. don’t they get dismembered and eaten?

 
 
Comment by friar john
2008-06-30 19:10:35

“Investors lost more than $35 million. ‘I know a lot of people are upset. A lot of people are angry,’ Vigen said of the investors.”

Murder, he wrote?

Gary Vigen, an amateur in every sense of the term, tries to figure out who amongst the angry investors murdered Webb and O’meara. Police found Webb and O’meara stripped naked, with a flag pole stuck through their rectums, and planted firmly on the 12th and 13th greens, or what was supposed to be the 12th and 13th greens, of the Running Horse Golf Club yesterday evening…

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-06-30 19:49:27

“In the end the Party would announce that two and two made five, and you would have to believe it. It was inevitable that they should make that claim sooner or later: the logic of their position demanded it. Not merely the validity of experience, but the very existence of external reality was tacitly denied by their philosophy.”

George Orwell

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2008-06-30 19:55:08

The flag pole was connected to a Yucca tree branch. One with sharp pointy needles. Interchangable with our friend, the JT.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2008-06-30 19:57:45

How about a thread on

“If things got any worse in California, then >>>”

First tier cities, like Needles, would announce their secede plans to AZ or NV.

Arnold would knock off the steroids and actually be a governator.

Comment by Big V
2008-06-30 22:49:29

The Governator and his wife, Skeletor, would resort to drugging the public and controlling their minds, but they would become addicted to the power and would not stop there. It would take one baby duck and a duo of cats to save the state from …

INFLATION AND HOUSING BUBBLE DOOM

Comment by Cassandra
2008-07-01 17:01:00

And how is this different from today?

 
 
 
Comment by joe momma
2008-06-30 23:52:38

Just an FYI, I pulled some of the real estate mags we had from 2005 for Colorado (Evergreen/Conifer area) and compared them to some homes that are now listed. There is a very clear pattern of people jacking up listings to 20% more than the same homes were selling for 2-3 years ago. What it tells me is people are listing their properties with artificially high listing prices so you can get a “deal” at 20-30% off. This gives them the price they want and makes you the sucker. Make sure you check the country records to get past sales history, and verify the listing price data as well.

These people are up to their same old bullshit.

 
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