Mid-Year Housing Bubble Predictions
I’ll forward this thread through the 4th of July. Here are some predictions from the end of 2007. “rob: i predict that 2008 is when the housing bubble outside the US starts to deflate. This includes Canada, Mexico, UK, Spain, and others. The rest of the world is still in ‘it’s different here’ denial, but in the end, economic principals suggest that while everywhere is ‘different,’ nowhere is really that different when it comes to over-valued and over-build housing markets.”
“This will cause the world-wide credit crunch to be more severe, as borrowers in other parts of the world start defaulting like their US cousins.”
“crispy&cole: I predict prices down nationally another 5-10%, inventory increases and a minor rescession in 2008, 2009 will be the worse…”
“FB wants a do over: Realtors will continue spouting the bottom was just reached - all throughout the year.”
“oxide: 1. I predict that the real ‘affordable housing” is going to be re-partmented condos, or condos at fire sale prices. Condos were late to the party so they can hang on a little longer, but they too will crash. Right around next Halloween.”
“2. I predict I will NOT buy a house in 2008. I thought I would, but I’m just not as interested yet. 3. I predict that at least one bailout bill will make it to the floor of either House of Congress to pander to voters, but will die there.”
“4. At least one mid-size bank, one major builder, and one major loan originator will give up on taking on new debt, and do the business version of jingle mail.”
“dennis: I predict the Stock Market below 12,000 by June. It will get ugly as panic sets in when the FEd is unable to control the pundits on wall street.”
“LILLL: I predict that the MSM will still deny that we are in a recession. Home prices in SoCal willfall off a cliff and nobody will ever again have to promise to feed the squirrels. Credit will get crunchier.”
“I will buy a repo SFH cheaper than a condo with 25% down Shendiand live happily ever after. I will start lowballing early summer. I’ll buy for under 400k in the SFV. I shall share my journey with HBB. Happy New Year All!”
“Shendi: Some MSMs will lose market share due to people shunning the misleading, incomplete and shill type articles on the state of RE. Eventually some will die a slow death due to lack of RE ads Increase in divorce rate. Increase in obesity and health related issues for the paycheck to paycheck families.”
“cayo_ron: Increase in bubble-related violence, i.e. multiple shootings/suicides.”
“em3: Rates of sales decline will taper off in the next few months into a more or less static number of sales nationwide; that constant won’t change much for a long time out. Prices, however, are going to continue to fall for many years to come (more than 10). Vulture fund money will try to catch knives by buying improved land this year.”
“A few smaller banks go belly up in ‘08, but none of the major banks-some of which rather will see more receipt of multi-billion dollar infusions of cash from a trusting middle-east and east.”
“The big story of 2008, however, is non-construction, non-manufacturing layoffs-in finance, banking, automotive, government, some academia.”
“barnaby33: I predict we’re already in recession, especially counting for inflation. We will continue to see inflation and deflation at the same time depending on what you are looking at. The worst of the housing declines will occur late in 08 as the banks are loaded to the gills and see the next wave building, at the same time that credit is getting harder to come by.”
“BayAreaRog: Inventory swells in late January. Normal sellers who’d been waiting out the holiday season + a few FBs. Buyers drink the RE agent Kool-Aid and start trying to buy again, but can’t get loans. Expect lots of aborted escrows in March. Good buyers with money can still buy, so sales volume goes up temporarily and median price plateaus or inches up.”
“Spring brings a huge wave of FB listings due to ARM resets. Early ‘08 listings still haven’t sold. By May, inventory spikes to ‘unprecedented levels.’ Leslie Appleton-Young calls this ‘the best buyer’s market in history.’”
“Through September, sellers and REO-rich banks still act as if it’s early 2006 and don’t budge much on prices. True lowball offers (20% or more off asking price) still get rejected, by and large. Would-be buyers finally realize foreclosures and REOs aren’t better deals than regular listings and lose interest. Inventory keeps growing.”
“Groundhogday: We’ll see builders drastically undercutting the existing home market through 2008 and competing with bank foreclosures.”
“It will be almost impossible for anyone to get a home loan by the end of 2008. Even Fannie and Freddie will struggle to securitize mortgages. FHA might be the only game in town, but not a game that will support even slightly bubbly prices due to tight lending guidelines.”
“SDGreg: One of the stories for 2008 and especially 2009 will be one of increasing fiscal problems for state and local governments. It will be evident by the end of 2008 that the current fiscal problems in California, which will eventually seem minor in comparison, will be increasingly severe in the two years that follow.”
“JimmyB: The big story of 2008 will be the mass extinction of homebuilders. A huge majority will go BK as sales continue to fall, margins are zero or negative, and mass over-capacity becomes painfully obvious.”
“stanleyjohnson: I predict no matter how bad things are in RE Larry Kuntlow, Bob Pisani, Tom Atkins, NAR, CAR and Babara Corcoran will all say it is a buyers market, so buy now.”
“cactus: Recession in 2008 and the FED will continue to lower interest rates down to 3.5%. Stock market will go down 10-20%. Home prices will fall 10%-20%. US dollar will trend lower against other currencies especially fast growing Asian countries. Commodities will go up against the US Dollar. RE agents and Loan brokers will be mocked and parodied often in 2008.”
“Ouro Verde: I think that so much happened last year that the worst is already here. From here on out will be a few years of ‘working out the kinks.’ The only thing that hasn’t happened is drastic price reductions and we may never see that in SoCal.”
“combotechie: It will be revealed that EVERYONE saw the coming decline, that it was so obvious only a blind fool could have missed it. The absolute, final, solid, rock-bottom prices in RE will be reached many times in 2008 and into 2009. Cash will be scarce, debt expensive. The American people will begin saving money.”
“jbunniii: Call me crazy, but I think that in 2008, the Bay Area will finally crack. I predict at least 10% YOY median price declines in San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties.”
“janna: I just have one little prediction for 2008, though I think it could be 2009 or 2010 even before it happens. I think that local sheriffs will stop enforcing evictions for foreclosed borrowers. I think the volume will so grow so large, that they will be overburdened and seek to charge fees to the lender.”
“In addition, I think the pushback will be so fierce, that in some municipalities and counties, the departments will decide that the task poses too much risk to their officers. There will either be indefinite squatting, or private enforcers of the blackwater type enforcing evictions, as they do not have to be voted into office as many sheriffs have to be.”
“vozworth: Multiple municipality bankruptcies…. runs on non-depository institutions continues…”
“Curt: I predict 2008 will be exactly like 2007…….only much worse.”
“johnbanner: I predict Gary Watts will get hired by Burger King in May. After 2 weeks on the job, the manager will fire him for lying to customers about the weight of the all beef patties.”
I’m finally starting to see some fire sale prices in Pinellas County. I think 2008 will be the year that listing prices challenge renters. 2009 *however* will be the year that those prices factor in the ridiculous TI in PITI. There will be some suckas, but 2009 will be the real opportunity. Of course by then I will most likely be moving out of Florida.
Which reminds me, Buf-Roc-Syr will be crying UNCLE by the end of 2008.
Muggy - on an Orlando station last night - property tax assessments might be declining, but the millage (rate) will rise to offset that. Translation: local governments don’t plan to reduce spending much, so tax bills that are not already SOH’d will remain high and continue to hammer selling prices because as you note, PITI is the bottom line. Only way to solve that is vote ‘em all out, IMO.
Not in CA. We have Prop 13. It limits property tax to 1% of assessed value, which is purchase price, plus 2% a year.
I just got $1250 back from the assessor for a home I purchased for $389,000, which sold for $685,000 in May 2006 (thank you Countrywide and Bank of NY). When I closed escrow, the escrow company had to pay the property tax forward based on the old assessment. I wrote to the assessor requesting the prepayment be returned, since the new “value” was 43% lower than their assessment, starting the day I purchased the home.
BTW, the value of the same basic model is down another 10% or so from November, 2007, to around $350,000! Clearly, I bought too soon, except I got the “pick of the litter” in a bubble neighborhood and could not be happier.
And in Colorado we have TABOR. I am paying only $100 more per year than in 1999, even thought the assesment increase about 50%.
That was a remarkable read. Nice work HBB’ers.
The overall accuracy of the collective wisdom is definitely one of the things that keep me coming back. Simply compare our projections vice those of the MSM, cheerleaders and various self-proclaimed gurus?
Still, ( as Ben often cautions ) it’s this stunning level of accuracy that lead to the extreme over confidence on the way UP on the part of the housing bulls! Savor your victories ( they don’t come often ) The real question is, what now?
I totally agree. I’ve forwarded this onto a fellow housing bear (close friend), who I know will pass it on to several people.
Way to GO! It just makes me angry all over again to realize that a lot of regular Joes saw the writing on the wall, yet those that could do something about some of the mess…didn’t.
BayQT~
Why? That’s what liberty means.
They are morons, they will pay.
You should not only laugh at them but do so in iambic pentameter. Only then will they learn poetry, finance, and the poetry of finance.
“It just makes me angry all over again to realize that a lot of regular Joes saw the writing on the wall, yet those that could do something about some of the mess…didn’t.”
didn’t choose to be honest with their clients and the public at large. This chaps my arse too. I like to see the roaring crowds swarm the Chateaus. Ah the good old days, when angry people actually got off the couch and did something with their anger. I guess we are all too comfortable even as our hard earned savings are devalued as a way to bail out the “let them eat cake” crowd.
Liquidity becomes the dirtiest word imaginable, when people can’t sell their house, or stocks, and are reduced to knocking out their gold teeth, and selling same for 1/2 of the meltdown value.
On a happier note, Gold will be $1650 an oz., by the time push meets shove…
“reduced to knocking out their gold teeth”
Glorious!
‘Gold will be $1650 an oz., by the time push meets shove’
That’s a little open ended. How about what you think by the end of 2008?
And I’ve already found the tooth thing on the internet. Nice try.
I’d guestimate that 1 out of 10,000 Americans own a minimum of 10 troy ounces of Gold, and i’m probably on the high side with that number.
Once panic sets in and people realize what a muggs game Wall Street is, there’s gonna be a race to the exits, a flight to safety.
Who’s your daddy @ that point?
$1650 by October.
the people with a hoard of lead (as in bullets) will take the hoard of gold from people if things get really bad. guns, grub, and gold in that order. But hey, gold ole toilet paper will be in demand if the SHTF.
Widespread violence is less likely than you think in Police States of America. Even in countries with currency collapses (Argentina, Zimbabwae) basic order remains if only by threat of force. In the Great Depression there was widespread hunger but not, I believe, great violence. TPTB don’t want riots on the evening news. Besides, most people won’t advertise to their neighbors that they have a store of wealth for the taking. And finally, those with foresight to gather wealth probably have foresight to protect it.
RE: In the Great Depression there was widespread hunger but not, I believe, great violence
Communication in the Great Depression was limited to the radio and local 10 cent weekly hometown rag.
Today there’s intellectual brain-wash saturation from TV media shows like “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous”; the deliberate pimping of professional sports; plus the onslaught of “envy the rich” stories from newspapers like the Beantown Glob, and Wash Post set up to stick in the face of the hoi polli as to how much better life is on the other side.
But as stupid as I know most people are, in the deep recesses of their brain deep down they know they’ve been ripped off by the Wall Street gangsters and the Federal government PONZI SCHEME Peddlers.
And if they can’t figure it out now, they sure will when the fuel oil truck shows up next November.
180 million guns guarantees somebody’s gonna push back.
But my guess, is if the shootin’ ever gets heavy, you can watch the Police State disappear just as it did in the dark days of Katrina in NO.
Right now, the crime wave is happening, in the dead of the night, when nobody’s looking.
___________________________________________________
“Cities and counties are battling manhole-cover thefts, a crime spree that police tie to the weak economy.”
“Hundreds of 200-pound covers have disappeared in three months in California, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Georgia as scrap metal prices pop up.”
“It’s a sign of the times,” says Sgt. Jay Baker of the Cherokee County Sheriff’s Office in Georgia, where 28 manhole covers disappeared in April and May. “When the economy gets bad, people start stealing iron.”
“It’s the first year he has seen such thefts since he started with the department 16 years ago.”
“The price of heavy melt steel, the medium grade used for manhole covers, has increased from $329 per metric ton in January to $519, according to the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries in Washington, D.C. A thief can get $10 to $15 for a manhole cover, says Ryan Alsop, spokesman for the Long Beach Water Department.”
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080630/a_manhole30.art.htm
Speaking of guns.
You know the Supremes allowed handgun ownership for self protection in the US, right?
well, Georgia is taking it to another level. The republican senator who authored the bill is going to SUE the City/State if people can’t carry their guns from Marta, their public transportation system to the airport, OFF of Marta onto Federal land which is the Airport.
Now we all know, that the airports are the domain of TSA and the “Patriot Act” etc and it is supposed to be all about safety at airports.
Can you just imagine if people were allowed to bring handguns to the airport,into the airport?
You have heard of ‘road rage’ before? Well, what happens when weather, mechanicals, and all kinds of delays, and if you don’t get your upgrade to first class…
OH LAWDY.
This is a drama in Atlanta playing out Right Now.
So what’s the responsibility of the salvage yard accepting these manhole covers? They must know they’ve been stolen off the streets. Hope their cars fall into the hole.
desertdweller…
Happiness is a worn gun, bang bang, shoot shoot.
Denquiry - the price of lead for reloading is going up as fast as the price of gold. Story is the Chinese are buying the lead. What for - the toys they make?
Desertdweller - people can bring handguns to the airport and transport them as checked baggage. You just have to follow the rules - locked, secure container, declared properly at check-in, etc. It’s all here in the TSA guidance:
http://www.tsa.gov/travelers/airtravel/assistant/editorial_1666.shtm
What you cannot do, of course, is pack any kind of gun in carryon baggage or on your person, but no one is arguing that point at all, that I’m aware of. Even badge-carriers do not have carte blanche to hand-carry past check-in.
the story of manhole covers sounds very much like Argentina after the crash. In Netherlands they are starting to disappear more often as well, and the housing market has not even crashed yet …
Airports are not owned by the Federal government. Most are owned by cities.
Manhole covers also went missing in Russia, in the early 1990’s…
People were plenty cognizant of the great fortunes of the 1920’s (which, for those not ruined by the Crash, continued into the 1930’s). Have you forgotten Monopoly? Or the glamour of 1930’s Hollywood?
If anything, the MSM back then was even more prone to populism and demagoguery. Remember, working stiffs bought papers back then, and there was usually a daily for the comfortable and a daily for the working Joe. Also, many homes had radios, thanks to the credit explosion of the 1920’s. True, many families had their radios repo’d, but not everyone. Father Coughlin and FDR ring a bell?
Interesteing comments about manholes going missing, I live in Knutsford England, which just outside Manchester, and we too have the problem. Although I am sure it is not the same people, I am sure it is for the same reasons.
First ever blogg, just thought I would let you know you are not alone.
Link to local paper article: http://www.knutsfordguardian.co.uk/search/1523537.White_van_man_steals_manhole_covers/
“…you are not alone.”
Somehow that reminds me of the movie “On the Beach”:
“We’re all doomed, you know. The whole, silly, drunken, pathetic lot of us.”
I find it very comforting to know that somewhere in the world there are “gully covers”. This sceptared isle, this England….
p.s.
As Gold and Oil are joined at the hip, and seldom vary in price to one-another, Gas will be $8 a gallon in October. (approx 200 gallons of gas per troy oz of Gold)
OK, I’ll bite. If that happens, I’ll buy you an extra-large pizza with quadruple cheese. At a pizzeria near me, of course, but by then it will be cold and central Florida will be a good place to enjoy a pizza while observing the lack of traffic.
I can’t speak for your part of the state, but one particular pizza joint in Tampa has been skimping on the cheese lately and I think you’d need a “quadruple” topping just to cover the pie.
The American public is nothing if not legendary in their misunderstanding of
money. They keep confusing it with Federal Reserve notes.
Who knows what ObamaNations lie ahead.
A wise man once said to never predict time AND price; just one or the other. Still, I suspect we will see 1250 by the end of the year.
Funny, I would have said that a true prediction is falsifiable.
Without time AND price, you’re issuing a horoscope.
Neptun in Aquarius: 2000-2011: “A time of tremendous delusions and distortions within economic and societal structures.”
Uranus in Picses 2003 - 2010: “New inventions and knowledge which could lead to reform are being suppressed.” And, the biggie:
Pluto in Capricorn (since beginnig of 2008):
“Societal change will affect the daily reality of people.
Capricorn stands for social structures, government, laws and regulations - our existential foundation and economy. Pluto forces change, it stands for death and rebirth, actually.”
This will be fun in hindsight. (Info is from a Swiss astrologer friend).
lol. I wonder how the astrologically inclined have digested the demotion of Pluto from planethood.
Uranus, Neptune and Pluto are known in astrological parlance as outer planets (as opposed to the closer-to-sun “personal” planets) and are societal in nature.
Once a so-called “planet” (any orb in the solar system) large enough to be considered significant in size is discovered and subsequently identified with a name, at that moment the entity is both ascribed the traits of that archetype and recognized in the relationship of its presence in the configuration of neighboring planets and the houses in which they reside. Demoting Pluto doesn’t change the definition of that archetype.
Noteworthy in the next few years, is that each of these three outer planets are arriving in, if not already currently in, society-at-large signs (Capricorn, Aquarius and Pisces), a culmination as it were and, further, involving the only three societal planets. Uranus (unpredictability) is at present moving within and culminating in the 12th sign Pisces (before it goes Aries in 2011).
Pluto represents wrenching change, death and regeneration. In Libra (1972-1984) it represented those passages in artistic formality and the group (dressiness died, and the cell phone was born at its wane). In Scorpio (1984-1996, use your imagination). In Sagittarius (1996-2008) the adventurous archer and its money travel the world, moving, smiling, oblivious to whatever is trampled underfoot in its optimistic path (Sagittarius also represents religious organizations).
Capricorn is business, restrictions, responsibilities, and power.
Capricorn in Pluto is (Sept.) 2008-2024.
Actually, the tooth thing was this blog the other day.
The DJIA will be at 39,000, by the time push meets shove…
39,000?
Nikkei don’t lose that number.
When Black Friday comes
I’ll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor
When Black Friday comes
I’ll collect everything I’m owed
And before my friends find out
I’ll be on the road
When Black Friday falls you know it’s got to be
Don’t let it fall on me
That’s Good!
“The DJIA will be at 39,000, by the time push meets shove…”
Just interested on your basis for this statement. Inflation?
I was talking to someone from Australia and one person from India about their housing market. Looks like both people were in denial mode and said their economy is in stron situation with huge employment. The cities were Melbourne, Aus and Delhi, Ind.
In fact the Indian guy started predicting US would fail in 10-20 years and the world will be left with 3 superpowers by 2020. The first would still be US followed by China and third would be India.
Gee, where have we heard this before? Rising Sun, anyone?
Ask your Indian friend if he gets running water 24×7. Or does his building have a private tank? Does he have regular garbage pickup?
Also, ask him how many times he has driven from Delhi to Bombay.
Infrastructure matters. It doesn’t just arise overnight.
The idea that India whose business model is basically mercantilist in nature is going to be a “superpower” in 10-20 years is risible.
Will they do absurdly well economically? Probably but they’re coming off a low base.
Will they be a superpower? Don’t make me laugh.
I betcha India has better train service than the good ole USA. and after Minnesota we shouldn’t be lecturing others about infrastructure. and isn’t in interesting that the aussies and the spanish are better at making money on the toll roads than the americans and that’s why the americans lease them out. and that the folks from dubai are a helluva lot better at managing ports than americans. At lastly, WTF, are americans good at? would it be making money off of public education while turning out idiots?
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
Talk to me after you’ve taken a train trip through Bihar (or UP or MP.)
You’ll be running back to Taxachussetts as fast as your can hie your heiny back.
You don’t seem to realize that outside of two towns in India (Bombay and Delhi) most of what the US takes for granted (running water, electricity, etc.) are LUXURIES.
Yeah, you heard that right. Luxuries. By contrast, even the smallest town in the US, you can take a shower, drive around on relatively decent roads, and probably buy sun-dried tomatoes in air-conditioned comfort.
Don’t make me laugh. Your ignorance is showing.
How do you know so much about india? are you a call-center expert? and if such an ass backward place is taking away american jobs is sure don’t say much about our economy/educational skills of our people.
Civility escapes you.
Yeah, it sure doesn’t say much about the education level.
However, that’s irrelevant. The service economy was built on the back of debt and was never sustainable.
And in any case, it has nothing to do what the jobs are just how much people are willing to earn to keep them. A billion Indians and a billion Chinese with vastly younger demographics; not much of a competition.
If you want to earn more, you have to move up the value chain.
In any case, even their farmers are discovering that Africa, etc. can produce the farmed goods for cheaper. That’s how it works.
Okay, I’ll bite. Explain the value of CEOs to me, especially the ones that get paid the big bucks even when their company tanks. There’s many a job in the US where folks get overcompensated for their supposed value.
Oh, absolutely! I’d be the last person to argue that’s not the case.
The CEO system is basically corrupt. They stuff each other’s boards and are complete villains.
However, contrast that with the same corrupt system in India. There are basically a dozen companies (Reliance, Tata, etc.) They manipulate the “socialist market” system so they are the only ones that get permits. You couldn’t set up a competitor even if you tried.
Most people in private industry wouldn’t want to be the CEO of a public company no matter how much they were paid.
Every quarter, you essentially roll the dice on your wealth and freedom because of Sarbanes Oxley, since there is no way you would be able to know enough about the financials to sign with conviction.
So, is there value in what the CEO does? Almost certainly not to the extent of their salaries (although I’d argue that Steve Jobs is worth far more than he is paid).
Is there a large amount of money that you need to pay anyone for them to be willing to accept the legal risks of being CEO (or CFO, for that matter)? Yup.
I’m happy to let the market choose how much CEOs should be paid (not some government mandate). A critical part of this though, is allowing the owners of the company (shareholders) some say on corporate pay. If the owners of the company make foolish decisions on how much to pay the CEO, then they will suffer the consequences….so be it. They might offer someone more for the position next time…
Every quarter, you essentially roll the dice on your wealth and freedom because of Sarbanes Oxley, since there is no way you would be able to know enough about the financials to sign with conviction.
C’mon, quit being an apologist for these thieves. When is the last time a CEO did any real jail time when wrongdoing was discovered? And in they rare case that they DO, how often is it a sentence longer than a couple years? And usually in a minimum-security country-club style prison, I might add.
Meanwhile mandatory sentences for non-violent pot smokers are lengthy, and locked down in hard-core prisons with violent psychos. Their crimes do minimal damage to society, while the white-collar criminals are the ones who have bankrupted our nation and brought the economy to its knees.
Allowing the shareholders a say isn’t going to work. What with so many stocks held in mutual funds and 401k’s, many people are shareholders and don’t even know it. The CEO’s sit on the boards of each other’s companies and vote in their own pay raises with no supervision by the public whom they are fleecing.
I used to not be in favor of government intervention in this area, but the more pissed off I get the more I’m starting to think that rather than a min. wage, this country needs a MAXIMUM wage. At least a maximum ratio from highest paid to lowest paid in any company. And make some laws against “independent contractors” so they can’t weasel out of it. That’d be fun to watch.
Steve Jobs takes zero salary from Apple and Pixar. I’m not even sure if his new board seat at Disney is a paid position.
I’m sure he gets bonuses and/or profit sharing, but he’s definitely not your “standard” American CEO.
Easiest way to make a maximum wage is to make the top tax rate 95%. (The Beatles, Taxman: “That’s one for you, nineteen for me. Taxman!”)
Easiest, simplest solution. We could have that kick in at some reasonable income, like $1,000,000. (You might have a 50% marginal rate kick in at $750,000 or so, about where some of these top-paid doctors ring in.)
Then we might have CEO’s like the 1950’s again, people who cared about their countries and America, rather than psychopathic (read the literature) thieves who vote each other giant multi-million dollar bonuses in a great circle jerk.
Liability? Don’t break the law. That’s what legal and the outside auditor are for. These crooks that actually did get indicted were breaking the law and knew it.
You really don’t have a clue, do you?
Do that, and all you will get is a black economy. A parallel tax-free economy at the top level.
They will swap their gold in numbered accounts in the Cayman Islands.
Try it. Just try it once.
India tried it for four decades. All it got was a black economy that was roughly 10 times the size of the “legal” economy.
France tried it too with the estate tax. All it got for its effort was that wealthy Frenchmen dumped their gold in safety boxes in nearby Switzerland or England, and dropped off the keys to the heirs.
Have some understanding of basic human psychology before you try pie-in-the-sky commie ideas.
I’m fairly certain we lead the way in oversized foam hands with one digit raised upwards (we’re #1) manufacturing, but perhaps those too, are produced in the Celestial Kingdom?
Americans are good at
1) Spending money
2) Getting into Debt
3) Wasting everyting
4) Using calcultors because they cannot do simple math in
their head
5) Outsourcing things
I can keep or writing
-Maria
We’re also great at complaining about everything.
Maria, that’s true of people all over the world, given the same circumstances that got Americans into this mess. My long term prediction: There will be a big meltdown, lots of suffering. Americans will wake up and remember the virtues that made them great (they have some virtues too). I don’t know if it will come in time to reverse the decadence, but it will slow it. The Europeans messed themselves up in unthinkable ways with 2 World Wars and they emerged less powerful but more prosperous than they had ever been. That may be ending too, but they had a good run. America has a lot of junk in its system, and it has to be processed, but, long term, I’m bullish on the US of A.
Add to the above list.
6. Blogging incessantly.
“Americans will wake up and remember the virtues that made them great (they have some virtues too). I don’t know if it will come in time to reverse the decadence, but it will slow it.”
Cass, I’m delighted to have you as a fellow American. From time to time, I get really weary of the downing of American citizens on this board. Are some of my fellow citizens real idjits? You bet. But the USofA doesn’t have the corner on that. There are more decent citizens than not. By no means are all US citizen slobs. There’s a very high profile minority that are, but it’s not like all homeowners are FBs. Not even half, right? Besides, having the president and govmint we do is enough to make any citizen down themselves. I say, get over it. Stop wallowing in how “bad” we are, grow a pair and get out there, start talking to yer friends and neighbors about what can be done. Take small steps. Small steps add up to big changes.
And, while others are pissing and moaning about it all, there will be those who will step up and at least try to do something about it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/05/nyregion/05mill.html
Harry Figgie wrote extensively about our crumbling and hollowed out infrastucture in “Bankruptcy 1995″. So while we’re talking about “predictions” he described this very event in the 1st Chapter. His concern however ( as a member of the Grace Commission, under Reagan ) was “the deficit”.
Funny how the lack of employee benefits, off-shoring and the erosion of our leadership role have taken place EXACTLY as he predicted but in the end it was our rampant over consumption that’s largely to blame?
Rampant overconsumption was needed to continue to fuel the fire and keep the kleptocrats rich.
If people could only buy what they could afford, they would notice their standard of living declining as all their jobs and benefits vanished. So, the notion of pushing debt was created. This would postpone the day of reckoning and allow a generation to pass between the effective destruction of our nation’s economy and the effects of that decision by the kleptocrats. People just kept “buying” things they could never afford, thus never really seeing how poor they were becoming.
The end-game is now here, topped off with the most massive Bubble in history as people “bought” insanely overpriced houses for sums of money they would never have in their lives, particularly with the good, real jobs all but gone. One last debt-fueled scam to loot as much as possible, and now things come falling apart, with hyperinflation fast approaching as the “solution.”
We’ll be stuck with the bill while the kleptocrats look for a new host to bleed to death.
Pondering, my thoughts exactly. For 95% of America, the largest item they will ever purchase, outside of some incredible surgery/procedure, is a home, IF THEY BUY ONE!
Ergo, the largest single way to transfer wealth while getting a gazillion citizens and others into debt they will never repay is a home.
Damn, if only I had enough guts and lack of ethics/scruples to have been a loan officer or RE whore working off these commissions. I would have hundreds of thousands a month for 2-3 years. WOWZERS!
Back to the point though. What a way to get everyone in the middle/howmuchamonth class and below into debt slavery. Couple that with the greed that can be found within these classes of society and the mix is what we have today.
As for the infrastructure. Come on. I went all over this country 2 years ago and there were a lot and I mean a lot of bridges that looked like they could use some TLC.
Lastly, I do agree with Faster that much of what has been built/done/lifestyle in this country has been built with massive debt. Lifestyles cost money and that money has to be worked for. If not, then it is debt that has to be repaid.
I guess we could go back to bartering, but how many apples would a town need if it needed to build a bridge like the GW in NYC?
Thoughts?
I don’t know. However, the republic is def. tottering and I still see a GDII coming within 2-5 years. I know that is a large window. However, like RE, the economy can get sticky due to numerous factors.
HOWEVER, the debt can be played only so long. I think we have gone past the tipping point. At some point in the next 5 years, it is game over. Just wait until one more of these mega-investment banks, like Citi go under. The FED is already taking car loans as collateral. What next? My baseball card collection? We are near the end.
We can also speculate on gold, silver, guns, etc. But the one thing EVERYONE needs is food and clothing. Heck, you can run around in a loin cloth and sleep in the car or under a tree, but you better have food and water.
I know I sound completely tinfoil and off the rocker, but when I see the same insanity and lack of production a 70% buyers economy with that same buyer tapped out, I don’t hold out much hope, especially when most of the jobs have been outsourced, most of us want it all for little effort, and the manufacturing plants are hallowed out.
Commentary rant off!
Got food and water?
who knows, in a few years Healthcare (insurance) could be your most expensive purchase; and the FED could accept your body as collateral …
Football and plastic surgery.
In India, residential streets have these large concrete containers. Garbage is dutifully placed next the them, instead of inside. Various cows, dogs and other creatures then painstakingly go through that trash, recycling it. Whatever is left, after many days, is being burnt on site.
Yeah, that sounds hygenic.
I don’t have running water 24/7. Or trash pick up. Or paved roads. Or reliable electricity. Or police/fire services. Or local school/hospital/groceries/fuel…. Broadband? Hah! Still have partyline telephone. No cellular. No radio. No broadcast TV.
And I live (and pay taxes for) this “infrastructure” in California, USA.
You presume a great deal, pussy.
The U.S. still stands out from the rest with its Bill of Rights, particularly the 2nd Amendment. I understand, however, there are a lot of people in India who are fans of Ayn Rand’s philosophy. Let’s see if they establish a new constitution in 10-20 years with the Bill of Rights that we have.
I’m keeping and bearing arms, as it is my RKBA.
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-01 10:34:38
I predict both announced and unannounced mortgage and credit market bailout attempts from U.S. policymakers. And more arguments on this blog about what constitutes a bailout.
Sorry to have to dredge this one up, but I couldn’t resist…
You forgot ‘more bandwidth wasted on meaningless government attempts to stop the inevitable.’
Touche.
I predict that Israel strikes Iran before Dubya leaves office particularly if the polls show Obama with a easy win and then all hell is going to break loose… 8-10% unemployment by spring if it happens…
“I predict that Israel strikes Iran before Dubya leaves office”..
and $200+/bbl oil.
“and $200+/bbl oil.”
Why do I always read “bbl” as “bubble?”
freudian slip?
If Iran is not attacked, I see things continuing along their current glide slope until the end of the year. These would include increasing unemployment, rising commodity prices in the face of slackening (U.S.) demand, increased stakes in “flagship” American companies by government-controlled Middle Eastern and Far Eastern entities, additional “economic stimulus” packages, increasing attempts by local governments to halt foreclosures by fiat, and de facto socialization of the mortgage industry.
That Iran stuff was all over the news last night and I think I detected a change in the tone of the MSM, in that commentators are not so sure now that this is a good idea. And of course there was the gleeful financial markets prognosticator saying that as a far as the price of oil was concerned, the sky would be the limit, $300-$400 a barrel. It kind of sounded like Israel wanted to do an end run around the Chimp. But I guess there’s money to be made and evil-doers to get, in that order.
you may also forget that this blog convinced me to do many, any different things:
1. buy a house with skin in the game, and
2. dont do stupid things with money.
you gotta live somewhere…..negotiate your best deal whether renting or buying. Buy long, rent short.
I pay less on a 15 yr mortgage w/20% down than my buddies in Cali makin 6 figures that are payin in rents percentage wise.
I bought the rental to live in….Im still waiting for my HOME>
yours in roots,
J6P
Im a paultry three years long the blog.
thanks Ben…
Some bailouts are obvious. Some are stealth bailouts and not acknowledged as such. That’s what we seem to argue over.
We need some posting guidelines. Still haven’t figured out what topics are verboten.
posting guidelines ??
Do you mean my post ?? So are you suggesting that if Israel strikes Iran it would not have a housing impact ?? Housing would be the least of our worries…Gee Wiz…
Lack of posting guidelines = Bush’s fault.
rob: i predict that 2008 is when the housing bubble outside the US starts to deflate. This includes Canada, Mexico, UK, Spain, and others.
The bust in Canada is already a year old. It started in the oil-producing province of Alberta. Yes, housing prices declined while the price of oil doubled. Nobody noticed all the empty land surrounding Alberta’s cities (size of Texas with 3 million people), or that people’s wages are not indexed to the price of oil. Alberta’s cities are still twice as expensive as Dallas or Houston and have a lot farther to fall.
The bust has just started in the super-bubble province of British Columbia, and it will be as badly hit as the most overpriced US states. The market has also turned in Toronto, but it is not as seriously overvalued as the Western cities.
The rest of Eastern Canada (the French-speaking part in particular) is not significantly overvalued and will not see a bust, although there may be some local exceptions.
BTW the bust in Spain is a year old too.
‘It will be revealed that EVERYONE saw the coming decline, that it was so obvious only a blind fool could have missed it.’
‘It will be revealed that EVERYONE saw the coming decline, that it was so obvious only a blind fool could have missed it.’
The minute that a cab driver or a kid working at a mobile phone store starts talking about how housing is the worst investment ever, I will buy 10 houses the next day with 0% down. That’s the only sign that the market has truly bottomed.
you won’t get zero down financing at that point.
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Okay, maybe 0.5% financing.
Especially the UCLA Anderson folks……….
you present the bust in Spain as a fact but it isn’t; the Spanish market is in trouble for sure, but there are no official (serious) price declines for the whole country yet. I predict that because of several government measures, average Spanish prices will remain elevated for some more time.
Rest of Europe mostly same story. UK and Ireland are 5-10% below their all time high now, but that’s nothing compared to the run up. The declines in Europe are still tiny like down a few tenth of a percent per month. In some countries like Netherlands prices are still rising; Netherlands even broke the 300-year old record high in inflation corrected home prices this year.
In Europe it will partly depend on what the ECB does. Trichet keeps talking about fighting inflation, but does not act; ECB rates are at official inflation now and if they don’t raise tomorrow even the official ECB rate will be negative. Some idiots like Sarkozy are pushing strongly to ‘inflate away’ the problem, keep interest rates artificially low and disregard inflation, just like his friends in the US. That might keep the EU housing markets levitating for some more time, until the currency system breaks down (could happen quickly, more EU banks seem to be in severe trouble lately while the EU housing market has not even crashed yet). Savers have nowhere to go except maybe gold or oil, a path many will never choose.
All in good time, where Spain and the UK are concerned, all in good time. Remember how long it took California to crack? And it’s only getting started.
Sarkozy sounds like he wants to **** Wall Street’s ****. Quite a change from Chirac. I miss the Socialists.
Seriously, I can see the need for France to reform, but what they really need to do is get some fresh blood in the bureaucracy and reduce the corruption. Just because somebody can get into Polytechnique does not mean they are going to make a good middle manager. This plan to take everybody’s job away sounds like sacrificing the people for the sake of fatter corporate profits. Whatever happened to French nationalism? The Germans aren’t standing for that sort of rot; Sarkozy take note.
The imports we get here from France, such as housewares, clothing, and food, are of very good quality; I would hate to see French firms outsource manufactures to China and get a reputation for shoddy, overpriced goods.
I’m not so sure about the French not turning to gold; according to what I’ve read in the past, most ( older ) French have at least some gold coins put away against war, destruction, depression, destitution, and having to move very far very fast ahead of advancing armies. Historically, the Terror, the Napoleonic wars, the toppling of ( I think ) 3 governments in the 1800’s, WW I, WW II, the Nazis in between, inflation in between, etc. have made the oldsters a little gun shy of just depending on the banks. I don’t know — hopefully they still have their socks of gold ducats and roosters under their beds, anyway. It’ll help them in the next 20 years if they do.
I believe in following history’s lessons myself. But no old socks.
I predict Ben will write a the definitive book about the whole mess, to be made into a movie starring Shia Labeouf as Ben, and he’ll make millions of dollars while everyone else is broke. (Don’t forget the movie industry did OK during Great Depresion I)
Now, that would be entertaining.
The banks can be the killer robots, and Shia can play the shirtless hunk.
Angelina Jolie will play txchick (or should that be Rene Russo?)
I was thinking Uma Thurman.
Yeah, that’s my vote. My gut tells me that sword thing out of Kill Bill would fit txchick to a tee.
FIne.
hoz can play Hattori Hanzo.
He is to good looking. I most closely resemble:
http://www.stock-monkey.com/images/bald-monkey.gif
Nice ears, Hoz. Get yourself a shave and you will find a few leprichauns crawling all over each other to get to you….very funny stuff…
You look like Alan Greenspan?
hoz,
we are all monkeys…
just different shades of stupid.
I nominate Olympiagal to be the head scriptwriter.
This is a total no-brainer.
Hollywood is screwed. As it turns out, most people prefer watching 15 second clips of their friends falling of skateboards, plane crashes, and manatees smashing their noses into aquarium windows.
True, Muggy. Plus, there’s one aspect of Hollywood that many are probably not aware: shooting commercials keeps many directors, actors, editors and crew members afloat with steady income while awaiting their “big breaks.” When the recession hits, people will be scrambling for work, just as they were in 2001. I have a friend whose very successful boutique commercial company is already getting squeezed.
Ad budgets will be cut, but advertising is not going away. I expect the volume of advertising to continue to rise, but the quality will fall as ad producers economize on costs by producing less ad content with less expensive talent. Talent and crew will cut their rates to remain employed. Marginal talent and crew will be flipping burgers.
Television may actually become even more unwatchable than it already is, if you accept that that’s possible.
Shades of “Idiocracy…”
Remember what passed for “entertainment” in that movie? The Violence Channel? “Ow, my balls!” and other such shows…
The future is now.
That’s not actually true. Variety just reported yesterday that summer films have taken in something like 7% more than last summer. Also, I noticed way more traffic in my town over the weekend, people are staying close to home this summer.
As ridiculously overprices as a trip to the movies is… it’s still less ridiculously overprices than a trip to a ballgame, or a play, or a concert.
Expect the free-to-$5 concert in the parks to be all the rage over the next year.
But, due to budget constraints, don’t expect to see many civic-sponsored concerts.
if you are a Bon Jovi fan he is playing a free concert in central park 7/12/08 -
i saw Simon & Garfunkel in central park in 1981 (hey i was 10) and Paul Simon solo in central park in 1991 or 92
free shows are great
i am going to see Pearl Jam tonight at the beacon theatre ($500 a ticket) thanks to Cerberus mine is free!!
as for the movies have not gone in years
i watch em on dvd for $3 bucks or so
I presume that Alad, because of his location and creativity, is a member the industry.
Anyway, I was full-time in the entertainment biz for a while and now dabble part-time. I can tell you that it’s changing in ways that nobody is prepared for and very few have a model to capture income. Publishing income / residuals and being a spectacle (a la Brooke Hogan) are about the only gigs left. Production is getting squeezed like a mofo. I know teenagers that bang out beats better than multi-platinum producers. The barriers to entry have all but vanished.
Trust me. I saw this coming and switched industries in 2005. The irony is that many of the people I know that are still in the game leveraged housing to finance various productions/operations in the last few years. I prefer anonymity (and trust me, I’m nobody), but I know some serious hitters that are getting wrecked.
Napster fired the musket and YouTube dropped the A-Bomb. I expect record companies to eventually fold, and major movie studios to become way less relevant. I have no position either way, but man, the entertainment industry is changing rapidly.
Don’t forget that gas has tripled in price in a few short years, while bands are still getting paid the same amount for gigs. People aren’t getting paid any more than before, either, so they raise cain if a club tries to raise the cover charge. Or they just stay home. An unknown band is still lucky to get a couple hundred bucks for a weeknight show in the middle of nowhere, but now their cost to get to that show has tripled. Touring was rarely a money maker for smaller and lesser-known acts, but now it’s becoming impossible. Add to that the fact that everybody downloads music now, so you sell fewer cds on the road. That’s another trickle of income taken out of the equation. It’s a brutal combination.
At this rate, just like modern art, modern music will become the playground of idle rich kids with trust funds who can afford to waste their own time and their parents money. I shudder to think about what kind of lame music this will result in.
“(Don’t forget the movie industry did OK during Great Depresion I)”
Last time I went to a non-matinee movie, it cost $10 a person. I predict that movie theaters will suffer in bad times. In a very middle class neighborhood I lived at in 2004 in Riverbank, CA, where most of the homes were under 1500 sf, every other home had their own large screen tv. Netflix (NFLX) will continue to stay strong.
I pack up the kids up once a month or so and head to the drive-in. Even with $4.00 gas, it’s a great deal. 1 adult, two teens and a 7 year-old for $22.00. That’s for a double feature. We bring a picnic, pull out the lawn chairs, and have a great time.
http://www.starlightdrivein.com/
‘Central Florida’s economy will stagnate well into 2009 before a recovery begins to restore the construction and financial-services jobs lost during the downturn, University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith predicted Monday in a newly released forecast. Faced with rising energy prices, higher unemployment rates and a persistent downturn in residential real estate, Snaith revised his expectations for how long it will take the region’s economy to recover.’
‘We need to finally shake off the housing bust,’ Snaith said. ‘Confidence will have to come back into the financial markets. More than anything, the credit crunch is a crisis of confidence, and those kinds of shocks take a while to work through.’
‘At the end of last year, Snaith had expected a local rebound to begin this summer. But worsening economic conditions, and a downward revision of state employment data, contributed to his reassessment. The shorter term is where the greatest uncertainty lies, Snaith said. Injecting some humor into his latest forecast, he built it on a circus theme, which he said reflects an economy that resembles a juggling act.’
‘There are so many balls in the air,’ Snaith said. ‘There hasn’t been this much uncertainty in decades.’
Come on, Ben, do you really believe that Florida will get hurt at all? They’re not making any more land there, everyone wants to live there, it’s different there, and real estate always goes up. Haven’t you learned anything over the years?
BTW, my dad who bought a condo in Lauderdale last year (against my recommendation) is still holding to his belief that HIS area in Lauderdale won’t drop. He keeps telling me to go to Realtor.com and enter his zip code and look for similar properties. He’s right: nothing there is for sale in his area, which is a really nice area. He bought a fantastic condo that he uses regularly (lives in 3 months out of the year), and got it for 35% below other selling prices in the area (he bought from a major corporation that used it as executive housing).
Now he’s saying that his purchase price is probably the current market price. Even though nothing else is for sale within 1 mile of him (on a nice canal 1/2 block from the Intercoastal), he still believes it can’t fall more. I tell him to not worry about it, he got 6 great months out of the place, and will use it regularly for the rest of his life. He’s blind, but it is convenient to a ton of stores and restaurants, so I told him that even if it falls another 20%, he’ll profit from using it. Even though I recommended against it, and in the end I was right about falling values, he gets a lot of pleasure out of the place, so I’m glad he bought it.
He’s not. How the tables turn when you’re a contrarian!
He’s right: nothing there is for sale in his area, which is a really nice area.
What you need to do next is look at the number of these are REO or are rented. Just because they are not listed in MLS does not mean that they are the “hidden inventory” that may reappear in the near future.
Denial is the stage just before acceptance that there is a problem.
On his block and the cross streets, there are currently no REO, and not even any NODs. I check often and have a friend at the clerk’s office.
In terms of rentals, all the units in his building are occupied. Last month there were 3 rentals on his street, all of them were taken off the market, so I assume they rented. It’s definitely a better area, but that means it may drop later than the rest. I’m not too concerned about it falling a lot, he put in less than 5% of his net assets into it, and he loves it. Even if it falls 50% (he bought for cash), he’s out maybe $120k. If he uses it for 10 years, it’s a loss but not a terrible one.
I was just hoping he’d wait it out a year, but he really wanted a place to call home down there, so I understand his desire to jump early. Better buying a $240k condo than a $400k condo as some of his friends did at the same time.
Late 2008:
Snaith ends up working in a chicken factory, disjointing them.
I still say “Snaith” sounds like some evil, nasty wizard-type from Harry Potter. It just adds a more surreal quality to this whole nightmare of the Bubble…
“‘There are so many balls in the air,’ Snaith said. ‘There hasn’t been this much uncertainty in decades.’”
Well, he certainly has balls for continuing to make wrong predictions. Maybe he should stop standing on his head so they can come back to Earth.”
I was going to make a Snaith prediction, but the only thing I know for sure in all of this bust madness is Snaith is truly unpredictable.
However, he’s on my Skyway-jumper-in-a-Disney-character-suit short list.
‘At the end of last year, Snaith had expected a local rebound to begin this summer.
Snaith missed his predictions by a mile for 2008. However, Snaith predictions for 2009 seem to follow what has been said by many, 2009 will be much like 2008. Shaking off the housing bust just won’t happen Snaith, it’s too deep and to entrenched to shake off.
Snaith’s last prediction was for a recovery the second half of this year…He is losing credibility quickly.
Sorry but who is Snaith?
A so-called economist who was at the University of Pacific for a while and then moved to Florida. Has famously avoided any negative prediction on housing for several years and coined the term “souffle” (or something like that) as how the housing market would settled down.
Sorry but who is Snaith? Gollum’s financial advisor.
Everyone must obtain the PRECIOUS!!
“It appears that all the talk of a housing ‘bubble’ has amounted to just that and will be placed in the museum of forecasting right next to the predictions of doom that were made about Y2K.”
-Sean Snaith, September 22, 2005
Looks like Snaith’s comment is destined for the museum of misplaced optimism.
and another:
The fabled Northwest Passage manifests as the North Pole gives way for the mariners from Europe to Asia, and vice-versa.
Canada and US squabble over maritime rights.
funny,
my group is doing a 6 month analyisis of expenditures….here’s the short list:
mortgage/rent
water
electricity
gas
food
phone/internets
medical
travel
clothing
education
credit card payments
taxes
insurance
maintenance
student loans
car payments
….. gonna be an intersting recovery.
if you may be wondering why I am posting this, ask yourself what the “real” economy is.
Now, why is saving not on the list?
no J6P’s live here…
name the wants…
cars?
credit cards?
education?
food?
shelter?
I predict that Congress and FDIC regulators will be forced to push for more rapid, flexible or emergency bank takeovers, reorganizations and re-assignments of smaller and midsize FDIC State Charter and Regional Fed FDIC inslovent banks due to the size of the US Financial Crash and Recession.
Don’t get too used to the current name ON your handy dandy old local bank because depending it’s out of state loan practices, it could be unofficially called the Royal State Bank of Riyadh, SA next Monday
But will it be able to charge interest? Or will they make sharia loans?
‘If the stock market were a casino, investors in Las Vegas gambling stocks would be the bleary-eyed guy in the wrinkled suit watching helplessly as the dealer plucks chips from the felt. Nine of 10 stocks on an index of publicly traded gambling companies lost value in June, including a 19 percent decline for shares in Las Vegas Sands Corp., the company that owns two of the swankiest resorts in Las Vegas. The numbers weren’t much better for the other prominent companies on the Applied Analysis Gaming Index.’
‘Myriad woes of the battered American economy — overheated energy prices, an ice-cold real estate market and tepid consumer confidence — took the blame for sucking the value from the nation’s most recognizable gambling companies.’
‘I don’t know if anyone could have predicted the current climate,’ said Brian Gordon, principal at Applied Analysis who compiles the monthly index.’
What Pavlovegas doesn’t understand is…
In the early 80’s recession, there was only Atlantic City as a competitor, and Indian casinos didn’t dot the land, yet.
We drove to Tucson last xmas, and i’d guess I saw 30 casinos, visible from the road.
And, here in Tucson, the casinos are among the biggest local television advertisers.
‘I don’t know if anyone could have predicted the current climate,’ said Brian Gordon, principal at Applied Analysis who compiles the monthly index.’
We did. Anyone so motivated can find predictions on this blog from over a year ago that the ‘gaming’ sector would shrivel with the end of the housing bubble.
But you couldn’t project that via a regression, could you now?
Dead serious here; that’s how these moronic analysts work.
Regressions generally amount to driving while looking through the rear view mirror.
You think I don’t understand this?
Why do you think I was so critical above?
Economic conditions will be the worst in a generation over the next 18 - 24 months.
Within 18 months the commodities bubble will implode.
In some parts of the country home prices will fall another 25 pct.
Bold call. I agree (though commodities bubble popping may be sooner).
2008 will continue to unwind slowly.
This unwinding will continue through 2009.
By the middle of 2009, however it will have become apparent that the credit markets are in much deeper trouble than had previously been thought.
ALT-A foreclosures will eclipse subprime and credit card companies will have substantially reduced most credit card lines, particularly for those holding large balances.
One thing is clear. We are in big trouble, but things tend to move more slowly than we tend to think. This may not fully unwind until 2012 - 2014.
GH, I think it will be later this year that “it will have become apparent that the credit markets are in much deeper trouble than had previously been thought.”
Nobody mentioned CRIME yet, so I will.
There will be a massive increase in crime, proportional to the number of empty houses in the area. Empty houses in Lake and Polk counties will become meth labs and crack dens, and Orlando will use empty condos as section 8 housing.
Central Florida will get so dangerous that visits to Orlando Theme Parks will fall off dramatically.
Nobody mentioned CRIME yet, so I will.
I predict that a large number of Realtors, Mortgage brokers, bankers and Wall Street bankers will end up in prison in 2009.
And, to make me happy, some FBs, too! I don’t know why all the politicians want to give these folks–at least 50% of whom are outright fraudsters–a hug and a juice box.
Yes I agree…
There will be a massive crime spree coupled with the fact that the gooberment can’t afford a police force anymore.
I’m thinking mob story 2.0.
At least The Supreme Court recognized we actually do have the right to own guns for self-preservation.
Geeez… this country has gone off the deep end, at least I have some shorts on.
My worst case scenario is an all out civil war or revolution… and scary enough, this actually doesn’t seem to far fetched to me given the wonderful approval ratings of the CON-gress and the prez.
Well, BHO will do everything he can to start a class war. To him, it’s the “Evil Rich” against the “Innocent Poor”.
He’s going to drive all the wealth offshore and create riots.
Central Florida will get so dangerous that visits to Orlando Theme Parks will fall off dramatically.
They will fall, but because there will be fewer customeras that can afford a $5000 Disney vacation.
Disney will do what it does best: isolate customers from the outside world. They already have their own buses to pick customers up at the airport, which whisk them away to gated Disney resort hotels. Most Disneyworld visitors will have no idea of what is happening outside the World, unless they watch the local evening news.
Now for those who chose to stay off property at places on International Drive and elsewhere it will be a different story.
Gee, this is fun.
The dollar price of oil, having gone parabolic in the last six months, will crash as the larger institutional players develop a maximum case of commodities cold feet. This attempt to take some serious cash winnings off the table will work for a very few, and then none at all, like a dot.com and housing bubble flashback. September 2008.
And to your prediction, I add my prediction that once the commodities bubble crashes to earth, inflation will be more contained than the Fed wishes it to be.
Are you, perchance, betting on negative?
If so, high-five!!!
Hello? Is NO ONE paying attention to the carbon tax that’s going to be enacted next year, once Obama and the Dems are in control? That means the price of all energy-related items (fuel, utilities, fertilizer, food, etc.) will continue to go up.
My prediction is that by YE08 there will STILL be people predicting the imminent arrival of deflation, despite FED rates that remain too low.
Hello?!?
Prices down 20% in California. Banks taking writedowns almost daily.
If that’s inflation, I suggest you strongly relearn a few basics.
Prices for what- gasoline? Electricity? Groceries? Health care?
“And to your prediction, I add my prediction that once the commodities bubble crashes to earth, inflation will be more contained than the Fed wishes it to be.”
More and more I’m thinking like PB on that one.
BEIJING — China is expected to consume 62.5 percent more oil in 2020 compared with 2006 as fast economic growth will continue to fuel domestic oil demand, says a government think tank.
China’s oil consumption would rise from 346.6 million tons in 2006 to 407 million tons in 2010 and 563 million tons in 2020, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecast in a new report.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-04/08/content_6599920.htm
My crystal ball says end of the year ennui.
A Christmas of just appreciating having a nice meal and family (and roof over their head), like it used to be. Generalized depression mentally, serious recession economically. The craziness of the past few years of nonstop consumption will no longer be deniable. The seriousness of the situation will now be understood by all.
Fallaces sunt rerum species.
Trading rule number 18
Uno viso, omnia visa sunt.
Okay, here is my ? to Hoz and Lost..
where and when did you guys learn your latin?
My high school had Latin courses. To this day, I kick myself for never enrolling in one. Had a lot of classmates who did, and they thought Latin rocked the house.
Have to say, Latin is the single most ‘useful’ dead language I ever learned.
Helps out with trying to figure out a lot of English words I haven’t encountered before.
And helps greatly with trying to figure out words in French, Spanish and the like.
Though, could have done with a lot less of Catullus…
OK, here’s the answer to the Q. about where I learned Latin:
Hostes alienigeni me abduxerunt.
another hint: Google it
Qui annus est?
Catapultam habeo. Nisi pecuniam omnem mihi dabis, ad caput tuum saxum immane mittam.
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscripti catapultas habebunt.
This is too much fun.
(Canis meus postae comedit.)
Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscripti catapultas habebunt.
Take your catapult and get out of here, no matter what year. I am not giving you squat, you can’t hit my tremendous head with your rock - I mean, hit my head with your huge rock.
LOL!!!
For a language I don’t speak (and there are several that I do), this was a highly entertaining exchange
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum videtur.
Saving money and stuff, as well as, recycling becoming the in-thing?
Say it ain’t so!
Just kidding. However, even with that, as I said above, we are past the tipping point. I think you make good points for most of us in the coming 6 months, Lost.
Candy Christmas?
Heck, how about just having a roof, family, maybe some friends over, and a decent meal.
I think Florida will begin (or continue) a long population decline as people who arrived here for housing-bubble-related reasons return to where they came from, as retirees die off and are not replaced by newcomers, and as energy issues make this state increasingly difficult to live in and get to. Inflation-adjusted housing prices never again will reach their peak levels.
Otherwise, I predict an upsurge in hostility directed towards the boomers and everybody else rightfully or wrongfully perceived to have contributed to the present American status quo.
I predict the state of Florida will increase with Cubans, not other Americans. ‘09
2nd half 2008 I predict the high cost of oil will be the big story surpassing even the RE bubble and cause a big drop in the American standard of living. Living large will be very unpopular in the future.
I expect a long recession and alot of political interfering in free markets.
“crispy&cole: I predict prices down nationally another 5-10%, inventory increases and a minor rescession in 2008, 2009 will be the worse…”
So far so good… 2009 will be when the real pain begins for the rest of the country.
Battling 1,000+ wildfires using up precious freshwater in June, long before the traditional fire season gets going in the fall, combined with NO more snow in the High Sierra (the rivers are dropping precipitously) means that for those unlucky people in the ‘burbs of California, they are not gonna have any water, come December 31.
Book it.
Let them drink California wine.
Gallo, Annie green Springs, Blue Nun, Thunderbird,Mateus..
Mad Dog 20/20 hindsight
Oh come on, alad. We here in the famous OC will just drink our recycled pooh/piss water.
We have enough of that to go around.
AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT YEAR!
In all honesty, you are right. The amount of dry/burned out areas of land is staggering for this early in the summer. Heck, we haven’t even hit the really dry/hottest part of the year and it looks like a desert in some parts here.
Wait until August/September when it is 90 or more degrees every day for weeks on end.
OUCH!
Isn’t Blue Nun liebfraumilch?
You know the saying: liebfraumilch isn’t exported from Germany, its deported.
aladinsane
compiling a list of yer comments & adding it to some Far Side cartoon drawings = make a million bucks in 2009 calendars.
Got an e-mail from the Geneva Convention about my wanton word torturing, and they’re not happy.
It is rather amusing (and sad in a way) that the predictions here are all MUCH more accurate than the “predictions” offered by the Bubble-loving mainstream media. They’ve barely admitted that there was a Bubble, much less that it is popping, and they still consider affordable housing a horrible thing!
Makes it clear why places like this are where to go for the TRUTH!
pondering
“Makes it clear why places like this are where to go for the TRUTH!”
good comment. and may I add another:
“The advice here is free, but it may cost if you don’t listen.”
( original author unkown )
Yeah, my prediction was rather optimistic.
Poor little O. She had no idea….
progress
A gain of 0.6 percent in state and local building projects offset a 1.7 percent drop in federal construction spending.
“Groundhogday: We’ll see builders drastically undercutting the existing home market through 2008 and competing with bank foreclosures.”
Back to admit I was wrong. Doesn’t seem that builders can compete with foreclosures… so new homes are simply becoming the next round of foreclosures.
My predictions for 2H 09:
- The recession will become “official”, though won’t yet be widely recognized as being the worst since the GD. However the term “Great Depression II” will be used more frequently, as a possible outcome (though only at the fringes of the MSM).
- Talk will start spinning up of the Chinese and Indian economies slowing down, with the primary factors being reduced American consumption, high shipping costs, weakness of the $$, and possibly more human rights issues coming to the forefront in China during the olympics.
- However despite that slowdown, commodities will remain high, primarily due to middle east tensions. If Obama is elected (I won’t predict that one either way), this will be exacerbated due to the expectation of the U.S. pulling out of the region sooner rather than later, leaving a power vacuum (though this may not happen until 2009).
- Gas prices remain around $4 per gallon, gold back up to about $1050, oil at about $150.
- Housing market will continue to tank at a fast rate. Case/Shiller YoY price decline will be around 15% on a national average, maybe even 20%.
- Official inventories (MLS) will be dropping significantly though, making NAR to (more strongly) assert that the bottom really is here this time. However the shadow inventory - foreclosures, FSBO, empties not on the market, etc. - continues to bloat even more, making price declines continue. NAR continues to scratch its head (and butt).
- Unemployment will be around 7% at the end of the year, and rising fast.
Meant to add this bullet:
- Credit card defaults will start to make the news as a growing problem, putting strain on the credit card companies’ bottom lines.
Also meant for all those to apply to 2H 08, not 2H 09. Typo.
- Talk will start spinning up of the Chinese and Indian economies slowing down, with the primary factors being reduced American consumption, high shipping costs, weakness of the $$, and possibly more human rights issues coming to the forefront in China during the olympics.
Those high shipping costs are one aspect of the impact of higher energy costs that will begin to reverse globalization. I don’t see how higher transportation costs don’t eventually affect the economic viability of the global supply chain of firms such as Airbus and Boeing. I think they’ll go back to manufacturing more of the components closer to the location of final assembly or at least of manufacturing components closer to the location of the raw input materials before shipping to the location of final assembly.
I don’t have any great predictions just some on the ground info.
First Quarter:
For the most part, I have heard that the first quarter, for most small and private companies, was marginal not great. Just enough to scare everyone and get everyone motivated to work harder and start preparing for the bad one.
Second Quarter: Not as bad as expected in the first quarter. The start of the second quarter was good, compared to the first quarter. But at the end of the second quarter sales started to drop off. Everyone holding their breath. When you talk to anyone, every conversation must include: “So how is business?” with a long pause.
Now everyone is still hoping it will not be as bad as expected. Price increases are coming on all parts made in Taiwan and China. Cannot hold back on the price increases. Trade show traffic is down and everyone is hoping it will not be as bad as many expect.
I think the third quarter results will start to show some sharp declines in some types of consumer spending leading to more layoffs and some business failures.
The Starbucks layoffs will mark the beginning of more significant layoffs that will increase through the consumer sector through the end of the year. Travel and tourism will take a hit, especially in more remote locations. Restaurants will fare comparatively worse, but those with lower priced menus will fare relatively better.
As we move into 2009 and 2010, rapidly escalating ticket and concession prices for sporting events will stall or reverse in response to stagnating or declining attendance. Television contracts negotiated after 2009 could actually be for amounts less than previous contracts as ad revenue falls. Labor/management negotiations on how to split a shrinking pie could be quite interesting.
“jbunniii: Call me crazy, but I think that in 2008, the Bay Area will finally crack. I predict at least 10% YOY median price declines in San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties.”
According to the brusque housing panel on KQED radio yesterday, prices have already come down 10-15% from the peak in the ‘fortress’ areas and 30-40% in the inland areas, and have much more to go, esp. in the fortress areas (San Francisco, Marin, etc). Except for a brief ‘we may be starting to see the bottom’ bs by a Sacramento realtor - immediately jumped on by one of the participants - a very dire scenario was painted of the entire Bay Area housing market (YES!).
http://www.kqed.org/programs/radio/forum/
Also, if you closely peruse the Redfin listings in the ‘prime’ areas, you’ll notice most either have price declines, are at or below 2005 prices, or are simply not selling.
I predict that by the end of 2008, early Option-ARM resets and home price falls in the higher end neighborhoods become more and more common in the media. Previously “unbreakable” markets (mid-Peninsula, etc.) will be broken.
I predict whoever wins in November in will start being referred to as a ‘lame duck’ by Feb ‘09.
Whoever wins will be lobbying for a recount by Feb 09.
LOL
hehe
good one, auger
My last short-term prediction;
The Central Valley is simply loaded with over-sized homes in over-built developments. They are everywhere, and nothing is moving - there are row after row of 2500sf homes surrounded by half finished lots liberally sprinkled with for sale signs where a quarter are occupied and the rest slowly decay. Soon, many major and minor builders will simply fold, taking with them a bucketful of local lenders. The last half of 2008 will be all about the absolute and stunning implosion of a housing market in complete freefall.
I’ve been amazed that builders have held on for so long. Must be something to do with the structure of their loans… local and regional banks haven’t even begun to acknowledge their losses.
I think the word “insourcing” will gradually become part of the MSM vocabulary.
Duuuh - I meant, “inshoring” (or on-shoring - the reversal of our exportation of jobs).
Predictions:
– The ratio of arrests for wall street bankers and street level dealers will remain at the current rate — about 200 to 1.
– On blogs like this and others, the logical end game will start to be mentioned more and more — that is, homesteading programs to occupy vacant homes.
The “System” will continue to try and process bailout and foreclosures the old fashioned way, one at a time. But it will become more and more apparent that the sheer number of empty homes is going to call for big action — tax credits to simply occupy homes, and sign perfunctory mortgage notes for something like $50K per house.
A homesteading program, pushed by local and state gov’t.s and backed by the fed/HUD, will restabilize communities, and get basic consumption going again, ie., building supplies, fixtures, carpet, paint and so on, including basic employment. It will also help quell civil unrest, to a degree.
I think we’re several years away from this, though, capitulation has to occur first — and it would take a big vision to make it happen. Or simple political extortion — “we’ll bail out your bank if you give us those mortgage papers, they’re not worth anything anyway.”
“Ten million empty homes — someone’s gotta live in ‘em.”
Another:
I predict big fireworks soon.
but how do you say that in Latin?
Bigus Boomus!!!
I predict that through this entire housing debacle I will continue to work construction uninterrupted and emerge on the other side stronger and better for the experience.
I know a guy who was just laid off from him commercial construction job. He was some sort of project manager, 6 figure salary, etc. He thought he was safe.
I predict a 20%-25% correction nationally and 35%-50% in Fl by Oct 09 from today (July 1st 2008.)
Now THAT’S a correction. 35-50% from today would keep me in Florida, even with the relatively oppressive taxes and insurance. While I don’t share quite the level of your vision, I’d sure be happy to congratulate you on being right.
“I predict a 20%-25% correction nationally and 35%-50% in Fl by Oct 09 from today (July 1st 2008.)”
I should clarify the 35%-50% decline is for Fl SOUTH FL.
The rest I stand by.
I also predict a strong backlash against latinos as more jobs are needed for citizens. There will be violence against Hispanics.
I predict rental prices will fall further making today’s cash flow positive investments a bad buy.
Long term I predict (but with less than a 50% certainty) that some people will be able to “buy” houses when no one bids at a foreclosure sale and they are holding the tax certificates for the properties but that wont happen until 2011.
I predict many shows on TV titled “Surviving the _______.”
Ben’s long term prediction that people will be concerned with getting a job and putting food on the table will come to pass.
Even he, however, will be saddened by just how accurate and extensive his prediction was.
We’ve ( with 8 years of savings in the bank ), have begun to buy the majority of our food through Angelfoodministries.com at approximately 50 percent of what people pay in the grocery stores. We get our fruit and veges at a local produce market that is about 30 percent cheaper than Kroger. Angel Food Ministries is open to anyone — there are no income requirements, no orphans and widows are being pushed out of the way, and you can buy approximately $ 60 worth of food for $ 30, plus multiple “grill packages” ( think meat ) for $ 20 each. You have to order on a certain day the previous month and pay in advance either by cash or money order. We paid $ 70 in June for the July offerings and got enough meat to last us a month and a half. We are very pleased. Check out their website. We go to the nearest pickup point, a Church of the Nazarene about 3 blocks away from our house. I’ve spread the word at work and on a couple of AOL boards. We will be ordering again in August. We go to the commercial grocery store for a very few things but only spend about 1/4 of what we used to there. It’s a GOOD THING, as Martha used to say. We are very happy to be preserving our assets.
By the end of 2008, it will be revealed that South, Central and North American countries/governments have undertaken discreet discussions re: the formation of the Amero dollar to compete with the Euro.
I predict a 60 Minutes piece on Ben Jones’ Blog. All our favorite characters will be trotted out onto a sound stage with a scenic backdrop of pointy, nasty Joshua trees to add to the surreal nature of it all.
Would LOVE to see one of the primetime news programs interview Ben.
Here’s my extreme long term prediction (which I have made before): There will not be another housing bubble in North America for at least another 600 years (probably much longer). I would almost be willing to extend this to the whole world, but I can’t guarantee other governments won’t do anything and everything to the point of insane absurdity to prop up prices (far beyond any bailout the US government would dream of doing).
In the near term everyone will be thinking that housing is a bad investment. Also, alternative energy will cause a slight reversal of the Great Plains depopulation (because of switchgrass, etc.). Hordes of people aren’t going to end up as switchgrass farmers, but all that is needed is a slight amount of people to move to the Great Plains to depress demand everywhere else in the country (making housing look even more unattractive). In addition, the illegal immigration issue isn’t going away. It will probably take several years at least before anything is really done, but even now many illegals are leaving of their own accord. Again, this means less demand. All of this will make oversupply problems much worse.
Looking farther into the future (50 years ahead & centuries ahead) we’ve got oceanic and space colonization. This is the ultimate argument (in the extreme long term) against “they aren’t making any more land”. Effectively, they will be. For that matter what happens when Mars get terraformed, for example. Granted that’s hundreds of years away, but it means that another planet’s worth of land will be available.
The upshot is that while I’m sure that there are plenty of people will want to have another housing bubble in either the near term or long term, the fact is they will be fighting the forces of technology in an battle they have no ability to win.
Without faster than light travel I can’t see real space colonization. Sure, we’ll have small colonies on Mars and the Moon, but who in their right mind would want to live in either place? And even to colonize the solar system would require major breakthroughs in propulsion technology simply to make it cost effective.
Me. But I’m not in my right mind.
I predict that foreclosures and vacant homes will continue to deteriorate in condition to the point that their value approaches zero. They will become unlivable with the only value being as a tear down.
“I predict that foreclosures and vacant homes will continue to deteriorate in condition to the point that their value approaches zero. They will become unlivable with the only value being as a tear down.”
The slower the correction, the more such “tear down” housing. Those trying to slow the decline will, in the end, only affect the amount of habitable housing, not the prices.
1) Higher education will get the squeeze. I bet that much of the run-up in college tuition over the last ten years has been at least partially attributable to boomer parents HELOCing their kids’ way through college - i.e., the spendthrift colleges realized that these parents were capable of dumping massive quantities of money into their coffers by “cashing out” their homes’ equity, and they figured they’d take advantage of the situation. The fact that the HELOC spigots are being turned off now only compounds the looming liquidity disaster in the lending markets (student loans included), meaning that the colleges (esp. private colleges) are going to be left scratching their heads when nobody seems to be able to find the loans or cash necessary to pay their grossly inflated and overpriced tuition rates.
2) People are going to stop paying not only their mortgages and local property taxes, but also their state and federal income taxes. How do I know this? Well, this boomer generation has already proven that they are perfectly willing to shirk all sorts of financial obligations previously thought unshirkable (i.e., paying mortgages). I’m almost certain that people are starting to do this already, and the IRS likely does not have the manpower to hunt down a large group of nonpayers.
2a) *Furthermore, if this does come to pass to any substantial degree, how much of this could happen before the federal government defaults, given our currently disasterous deficit situation?*
3) Some local governments will go bankrupt, defaulting on debt that they took on in a vain effort to maintain the overspending spending of the Roaring ’00s. Large numbers of local employees will be dumped out on the streets even in towns and cities that stay afloat, likely ending the era of glorious pay and benefits packages (aka largesse) for local governmental employees.
4) The inflation and unemployment rates will hit double digits.
5) Gas will hit at least $5-6 a gallon, if not more. In the same manner that the infamous “land yachts” of the 70s disappeared, SUVs, large pickups, and many high-performance sports cars will become as extinct as the dodo bird. The performance characteristics of almost all vehicles will be greatly toned down from what it is today (nearly 300 hp in a Honda Odyssey? WTF?) and there will be a move back toward smaller, simpler, and lighter cars that are not packed with tons of expensive, heavy, and largely useless features (as today’s are).
#5 really hit home for me. There is a guy here at work who has one of the original Toyota Rav4s. Compared to today’s Rav4 it is absolutely TINY. I’ll be the new ones weight at least 1000 lbs more. I also remember when the Honda CRV was a petite SUV. Not today.
I just remembered what these tiny SUV’s were called when they first came out : Cute-Utes
People who don’t need trucks won’t be keeping them. People who DO need trucks will. I’m not planning to get rid of my 3/4 ton anytime soon nor are any of the people I associate with who do need them. Prii and other economical vehicles just cannot fill the cargo and hauling jobs that trucks can. We did just purchase a late model VW diesel as a commuter though - it gets excellent fuel economy!
A close friend is getting a scooter to commute to work with, and a coworker is fixing up a 1983 Honda Civic so he can park his truck. Doesn’t make sense to commute in it any more. (He’s going to keep it for when he needs a truck.) He told me this week he is one part away. Good for him.
I agree with #1 - I’ve been saying this for years. Used to be you made more with a college degree and could easily pay for school or pay off your loan. Not anymore. We’ll be paying for our school loans for at least 20 years … But everyone told me it would be worth it, higher pay, etc etc …
You are dead on with #1. I keep trying to explain that to friends with young children who are speculating what tuition costs will be in 15-18 years. And expanding the point, it’s difficult to ascertain the real value of anything when prices are based on the easy availability of borrowed money.
“The performance characteristics of almost all vehicles will be greatly toned down from what it is today (nearly 300 hp in a Honda Odyssey? WTF?) and there will be a move back toward smaller, simpler, and lighter cars that are not packed with tons of expensive, heavy, and largely useless features (as today’s are).”
I’m really tired of the auto makers, including Honda, up-sizing with each model redesign. If that happens with the next redesign of the Civic, my next car will not be a Civic. As it was, if the Fit had hit the market 6 months sooner, my current car might have been a Fit instead of a Civic. Almost certainly my next car will be smaller and get far better mileage, 40-45+ mpg minimum.
As for “useless” features, does the typical Yukon driver really need heated seats. I don’t see how the @ss of a typical Yukon driver could ever get cold. Maybe in really cold areas those seats heat up faster than the engine can heat up to provide heat to the interior, but is it really necessary? If it comes down to reduced features or no driving, reduced features will win.
“‘Real estate markets go up and down, and when it comes to New York City, it’s an island. There’s not a lot of land, and it’ll survive,’ said Dottie Herman, CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman. ‘I think we need to kiss the ground because we live in New York.’”
Tell that to my Aunt who only sells high end properties on “the island.” She has a very nice “half penthouse” that just couldn’t be sold *at any price* in the 1970’s, so she low balled. She’s seen what the top units go for in up and down markets.
Note: Yea… she is always saying ‘now is a great time to buy’ (it is her income). But then again, two years ago she started preparing. For what?
1. Buying opportunities (getting the cash lined up).
2. She expects to have to subsidize her agency for two years (or as she puts it, “You always have to be ready for those two years without any income.”)
It is an island. But its sunk before. Those that had a seat in the first life boats on the Titanic did ok…
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Cool, a thread extension.
Ok, my predictions for the second half?
-Big bank failures as toxic waste comes to light
-Panic in smaller states as winter sets in and figures for home sales show significant decreases that can’t be denied.
-Relative Congressional inactivity after the bailout bill through the end of the year, as everyone focuses on the election
-Municipal tax increases and layoffs as tax receipts take a dive. Municipal bankruptcies in Q2 2009.
-Obama!
Rethinking of public employee pensions benefits as the true costs are calculated. There is no way that they are affordable for many municipalities.
Sadly, I predict an increase in suicides due to overwhelming debt, inflation, falling house and stock prices, retirement losses (esp. for those close to retirement), and just the whole entire economic mess.
And this is sad because?
You said so? All human lives are “valuable”? And we should buy these clichés because?
There is a flip side to the concept of “liberty”. You are free to do whatever the heck you want. That freedom may have consequences. Not all consequences are good ones.
Tough titty, city kitty.
Yes their lives are valuable. To those who love them, if no one else.
2008 is only the begining of the end. 2009 -2010 will be so much uglier. Housing prices will decline another 20 -30% before this mess unwinds.
New London County in Connecticut is seeing a surge of new listings in the $400,000 price range due to Pfizer’s recent layoffs. Prices are tumbling.
“cactus: Recession in 2008 and the FED will continue to lower interest rates down to 3.5%. Stock market will go down 10-20%. Home prices will fall 10%-20%. US dollar will trend lower against other currencies especially fast growing Asian countries. Commodities will go up against the US Dollar. RE agents and Loan brokers will be mocked and parodied often in 2008.”
I agree with Cactus.
In addition, gold will reach a record high of $1200 per ounce this year (2008).
Maybe Aladinsane will get his wish and be able to buy a beach side mansion with his 100% gold holdings at a very good discount (if his average spot price is $500 per ounce while RE drops 70% from its peak).
Happy 4th. Vote Libertarian this Fall. Remember the first paragraph of the Declaration of Independence and remember the 2nd amendment to the Constitution. Put it together and we have a nice tea party.