An Epidemic Of Overbuilding And Overpaying
The Missoulian reports from Montana. “Larry Melia and his wife are getting ready to auction off a house in the Bitterroot they have been restoring for the past six years. This is the first time the Melias, who renovated and sold ranches in Denver before moving to Montana, have participated in a national house auction. Tommy Bone, VP of the National Auction Group Inc., said a local person might bid on the property, but he’s expecting someone from Los Angeles, Seattle or another out-of-state location to purchase it as a second home.”
“The economic downturn might affect the sale, he said. ‘The interest isn’t quite what we hoped for and the response isn’t great, but you never know,’ Bone said.”
“‘I’ve never done an auction before,’ Larry Melia said. ‘An auction is unsettling - greed is what it is all about. People will show up and try and steal this property. But when they’re in a room with someone else who wants it, greed will drive their bids.’”
The Idaho Statesman. “David Hale, one of the most prominent names in the Boise development community, saw his $1.4 million townhome project in Sewell’s subdivision in Southeast Boise fall into foreclosure this week.”
“Hale said the foreclosure action was not a surprise given the housing slump that has left area homebuilders sitting on excess inventory that they can’t unload ‘no matter what the price.’”
“‘I know a dozen developers, if not more, who are in worse shape,’ Hale said. ‘It’s unfortunate that the (credit) market turned so quickly. Financing is extremely hard to come by these days.’”
“Hale said that selling the project is the best option at this point. ‘If it goes to auction, the only person who wins is whoever purchases it,’ he said.”
The Idaho Business Review. “Default filings remained high in June in Ada and Canyon counties, IdahoDataProviders.com said in a new report. IDP viewed May’s decline as a positive sign for the local real estate. However, foreclosure filings for June are back up to previous levels, continuing the trend of steadily increasing foreclosures,’ the company said in a release.”
“Ada County saw 224 default notices filed June…the fourth highest since January 2007 and compared to 101 in June 2007. Canyon County saw 165 default notices filed in June compared to 113 a month earlier and 64 in June 2007.”
“At the start of July, the number of active short sales in the Intermountain MLS had increased by 20 percent in the past month and by 37 percent in the past two months.”
“‘More importantly, while short sales now make up over 11 percent of the currently listed and active properties in the local market, they are a staggering 26 percent of pending sales,’ IdahoDataProviders said. ‘IDP believes that the rapidly increasing number of short sales is going to result in a decline in home prices…as the lenders continue to approve short sales below current market values. This will force home sellers to drop their asking prices to compete against these discounted homes.’”
The Oregonian. “Trinity Carpet couldn’t get credit when large clients fell behind on their bills The stubborn real estate slump has forced Trinity Carpet Brokers, a major regional supplier of carpet and flooring, into bankruptcy.”
“Barry Caplan, a Portland bankruptcy lawyer working for Trinity, said the company’s ability to borrow money was restricted by the failure of two large customers to keep current on their bills. One of those customers was Renaissance Custom Homes, which owes Trinity more than $1 million, according to bankruptcy documents.”
“Nearly two years since the end of the real estate boom, an increasing number of developers, subcontractors and suppliers are flirting with insolvency.”
“‘We have a number of major (real estate industry) participants — the developers, the lenders, the customers, the suppliers — who are experiencing problems that they may not have experienced recently, or ever before,’ Caplan said. ‘There was an epidemic of overbuilding and overpaying.’”
“Wells Fargo’s Ed Kashmarek is the latest to weigh in on Oregon’s outlook, issuing a report Friday forecasting a modest downturn in the Portland area. Less sanguine is University of Oregon economics professor Tim Duy.”
“‘There’s a huge debate about whether Portland in specific and Oregon in general are just going to slide through this on a basis of: This is a nice place to live,’ Duy said.”
“To his way of thinking, it’s only a matter of time until the sharp declines in housing prices that have hit other parts of the country hit here and take a corresponding toll. ‘Things could turn here fairly quickly,’ Duy said, ‘and seem to be turning in a direction that’s not to anyone’s liking.’”
The Daily Journal of Commerce from Oregon. “A recently renovated condominium complex in Salem has been converted back to apartments after disappointing sales.”
“Strict loan approval guidelines enforced after the subprime loan crisis meant that potential buyers had trouble getting approved for loans to buy the condos. The complex could remain apartments for up to 18 months.”
From KTVZ.com in Oregon. “The economic slowdown has hurt nearly every industry and city across America. Here on the High Desert, it’s no different. If you look far enough down any street in Bend, you’ll see construction. But in recent months, some of the sites have been sitting at a standstill, leaving lots vacant.”
“Mike Murphy, an employee of Schumacker Construction, said, ‘At our office, we have subcontractors doing cold calls on a daily basis, just trying to get more business.’”
The Mail Tribune from Oregon. “Local real estate officials released figures Friday showing continued declines in home values.
Andrea Bushnell, CEO of the Oregon Association of Realtors in Portland, said…demand may continue to decline for six to 12 months. ‘When you’ve got a big inventory, it’s less healthy,’ Bushnell said. ‘We’re seeing a return to normal, compared to 2003, when we had a screaming hot market with escalating prices that priced a lot of people - including the elderly and first-time buyers - out of the market.’”
“Broker Colin Mullane, chairman of the Southern Oregon MLS state committee, said Oregon, unlike Nevada, is not overbuilt with unsold new homes ’surrounded by tumbleweeds.’”
“A more realistic view of the market here, he said, is that values are off about 10 percent from the peak at the start of 2005, meaning a $400,000 home then is worth about $360,000 now.”
“The lesson that should be taken from the real estate boom and downturn, said Mullane, is ‘the same as the dot-com boom, that you shouldn’t treat real estate as a short-term investment and you should look realistically at what you can afford.’”
The Wenatchee World from Washington. “Soaring inventory and slowing sales could be driving down area home prices, but Wenatchee is still among the nation’s strongest markets for home-price appreciation, recent industry reports show.”
“The average price of a home sold in the Greater Wenatchee area through May was $275,601 - barely $1,300 above the average price of $274,319 recorded in May 2007. This less-than-half-a-percent increase is the closest the average sale price has come to zero or flat growth since Pacific Appraisal Associates began issuing the report in December 1999.”
“The latest Snapshot shows that the 109 building permits issued for single-family homes through May was down 46 percent from the 200 recorded through May 2007. A comparison with May 2004 shows that home sales have slid beneath sales levels recorded before the 2005-2007 real estate boom.”
“At the same time, inventories have soared. The report shows an 11-month supply of homes on the market in this year’s average price range of $251,000 to $300,000. That compares with a four-month supply of average-priced homes in 2004.”
“Pacific Appraisal co-owner Brian Vincent says he expects the local market to hold its value. ‘We’re still a desirable market,’ he said. “I don’t think we’ll see a lot of price reduction, but listing prices (the asking price) will come down. Home buying is still a strong investment.’”
The Olympian from Washington. “A slower home-sales market and tighter lending standards have resulted in brisk business for Hometown Property Management, a business that manages more than 800 single-family rental houses in Thurston County. Co-owner Andrew Barkis says the business could manage more than 1,000 houses by next year.”
“Q: What current trends are you seeing in the rental-house business?”
“A: The rental-home market typically runs opposite of the home-sales market…when the sales market slows down and people can’t buy, it forces more people into the rental market.”
“We’re renting more homes because…mortgage requirements have tightened up. We’re also averaging 10 to 15 phone calls a day and a majority of those calls start with, ‘I have a house that hasn’t sold.’”
“Q: Do you do background checks on homeowners? A: We don’t take every home or work with every owner who steps through our door…Are they in a stable financial position? Why are they leaving the area? Has the house not sold? Is it in risk of going into foreclosure?”
“We have had some issues where we have been bitten by that. If you come to us and you haven’t made a mortgage payment in five months and you’re trying to rent the house, it’s a little late.”
“In this past year, we’ve had more people come to us and say they are in that early stage of foreclosure. These are people who got into way more house than they should have.”
The Seattle PI from Washington. “Seattle and King County grew 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, between April 1, 2007, and April 1, 2008, down from growth rates of 1.3 percent and 1.4 percent the previous year.”
“The nationwide housing market slowdown has made it harder for people to move to Washington, said Theresa Lowe, the state’s chief demographer.”
“‘Many job seekers are finding it difficult to sell their homes or to relocate to accept employment at the price of paying two mortgages for an extended period,’ she said. ‘Thus, even those states faring better in terms of housing and job opportunities are not experiencing the level of migration that would be expected under more normal circumstances.’”
“Janice Yawman moved to Seattle from Oregon before selling her house. She rented in Seattle while her Oregon home sat on the market. ‘It took me well over a year to sell my house, and I had a fabulous place,’ Yawman said.”
“Donna Thompson, the state’s regional labor economist for Snohomish County, said she has heard stories of people turning down jobs because they couldn’t sell their homes elsewhere.”
“The housing slowdown is affecting the local mortgage and construction industries, as well as seemingly unrelated issues like municipal bonds that depend on insurers reeling from the collapse of mortgage-backed securities, Thompson said. ‘As time goes on, you find it kind of crawls into more and more corners, and affects more and more things.’”
“Pam Johnson took a new job in Seattle and was out shopping for a house Sunday, despite the fact that she hasn’t sold her San Francisco Bay Area home yet.”
“She expected her old home would fetch less than it would have a year ago, but she’d also be buying in a market that has slowed.”
“‘I’m selling at a discount,’ she said. ‘I’m buying at a discount here.’”
‘Things could turn here fairly quickly,’ Duy said, ‘and seem to be turning in a direction that’s not to anyone’s liking.’
I guess I’m a nobody, cause personally I like the direction real estate is turning. Currently it’s way overpriced here.
That you, Nemo?
Me, too.
my thoughts exactly. i think the direction things are going is way overdue, and I like it just fine. Thank you very much.
While we’re stating the obvious here, it’s said that otherwise reliable news sources, the ones that at least pay lip service to objective reporting (NY Times, WSJ, Washington Post, NPR), always seem to report falling real estate prices as a bad thing.
I own properties in CA and FL outright, and I welcome the price correction, too.
He’s easy to find, so I emailed him…We’ll see what he has to say.
This should be a Legal Requirement for listing an apartment with a broker today. So just incase the landlord defaults the tenant can sue both parties for the security deposit back.
—————————-
: Do you do background checks on homeowners?
Wordpress is still giving me headaches. I’ve tried to fix the Wenatchee link several times, but it isn’t taking.
Here is the link in case it doesn’t work out.
Whooo hooo! A PNW thread! Thanks, Ben.
‘An auction is unsettling - greed is what it is all about. People will show up and try and steal this property. But when they’re in a room with someone else who wants it, greed will drive their bids.’”
Well, and you’re saying that’s not what motivated you? Maybe not, maybe you were just trying to make a living, but you’re a bit late on this bubble.
This greed guy Larry Melia sounds demented.
The greedy will try and steal his “trophy” house at the auction, or greed will lead them to drive up the price.
BTW, the property includes a “trout lodge”:
“The Melias’ property is divided into two parcels: the “trout lodge” on 40 acres with five septic approvals, and an adjacent 20-acre parcel with nine septic approvals.”
So, what the H-E-doublehockeysticks is a Trout Lodge?
Can’t be where trout spend the night, so maybe it’s for rich sappers trying to catch trout in a lake that’s been overly stocked with trout, then you catch these “wild” trout and take them into the Trout Lodge where some poor sapper fries it up for you and you feel all fishermanly?
I want a Carp Lodge, myself. Carp, now that’s a real fish for you! Has character.
But they taste like mud…
And they bite.
That’s what I said, character!
Gives you something to carp about, though.
Me, I just fish for the halibut.
Hey Lost, come up and halibut fish here in Alaska. You can sleep on my couch
Send address, on my way…
(and also money, if this system thing combo’s talking about below doesn’t work out…)
and hey, Shoe, since when do you know anything about fish out there in the desert???
Did that fire you didn’t start monkeywrenching around ever get put out?
When we fish all we ever catch is a buzz.
Yeah, I’m really just a piker, floundering around up here on my desert perch.
Sorry, I couldn’t help but take the bait.
He’s fishin’ for compliments, and that one smelt funny, I think it was a fluke…
Holy mackerel, this thread’s turning into a red herring, mahi mahi we just unhook it and throw it back in?
Let’s turn it to cheese then.
I camembert it.
Lost, I’ll send you my email addy via your website. You, Ben, or any other HBBers are always welcome to stay on the couch, or just call me and we’ll go out for a hike and some brewskis.
Hate to fish but love to Edam.
-and for nhz:
Don’t know Gouda hades they do it, though.
A little humor’s good at times, helps to blow off the steam.
Considering that so many of us are fed up to the gills with all the housing bubble, when you think of how many people fell for it, hook, line and sinker. And realtors still say it’s all a red herring.
Pay me enough money and I’ll stop.
Don’t tempt me on the AK thing, over 100 here today.
shoe, send your paypal info…
where’s Hwy, maybe he’d buy you a beer at Ray’s
Hmmm . . . I could use a new trout. The old one has been used a lot.
How about an upgrade to a sturgeon?
That would hurt worse.
My friend’s kid caught his first trout (8 inches) in our river, today.
I see how it works now. When YOU make money off other people, you’re a smart businessman; when other people make money at your expense they’re “greedy.”
Narcissism.
Some of the “free-market” trolls think the same thing when it comes to taxes.
I’ve bumped elbows at high-falutin’ dinner parties with a lot of section 8 slumlords, gov’t contract cronies (especially since I moved to Alaska) and defense-contractor welfare babies who were happy to live off the government teat…but scream bloody murder when it was time for them to pay taxes.
okaaay…a little out of left field, maybe.
lol…maybe so. My latest crusade is against people who try to have it both ways when it comes to making money off of OPM.
shoot, you mean it wasn’t OK for me to advertise your couch as a B&B??
Greed is what setting auction reserve prices at levels where the homes won’t sell is all about.
Could be just plain ol’ incompetence but why don’t we split the difference and call it a bit of both?
greed + incompetence = infinite time on the market
He says that people will show up and try to steal the property. Which makes me wonder how they’re going to cart the property away. I can just hear the 911 dispatcher now: “There’s a stolen house headed east on Highway 23…”
Suspect house is considered armed and dangerous. Film at 11:00…
Well, a “suspect house” could have a faulty foundation, you know?
Suspect is hatless. I repeat, hatless.
From this much slapstick, I b’leeve we’ve all started our holiday drankin’ nice & early.
Free beer at Ray’s Tavern on Hwy40ina51Dodge or whatever year/hiway it was…
“The nationwide housing market slowdown has made it harder for people to move to Washington, said Theresa Lowe, the state’s chief demographer.”
“‘Many job seekers are finding it difficult to sell their homes or to relocate to accept employment at the price of paying two mortgages for an extended period,’ she said. ‘Thus, even those states faring better in terms of housing and job opportunities are not experiencing the level of migration that would be expected under more normal circumstances.’”
Another one predicted some time ago on this blog. Go Ben!!
And a little relief for those of us seeing a very conspicuous surge in CA plates in earnest in 2003.
Net influx of peoples to Oregon was 30,000 in 2007 and yet “planners” keep calling for another 1 million in Portland alone by 2030 (or was it 2025? or in 20 years? I can’t remember). Methinks not and that it’s all a ruse to allow gov’t to keep spending on the hopes that rich retirees will save us someday.
Time to deny some of those building permits. Lotsa space still in the UGB (Urban Growth Boundary), too. Nice knowin’ ya Randy Sebastian.
Those dang pesky Californians again…they’re everywhere, jeez, that state must breed people like flies breed flies.
(No offense to Californians in general, just to those breeding like flies.)
As an ex-pat Californian, I can say decisively that I am not breeding, nor did I drive up anyone’s property values.
You say you aren’t ‘breeding’, but aren’t the operative words,
‘not producing’?
Just not ‘offspringing’ !!
Hey Nosingleone, you aren’t catholic, by any chance? Really, it seems like the people I end up being friends with are catholic and californian…
you drink the good cali wine and then feel guilty later.
Hey, if you can’t do caps, like me and taxmeupthebooty (the blogger formerly known as flatt), your name has a whole different feel to it:
no sing leone -
Lost, my two closest friends are a conservative Republican and a liberal Democrat, and I argue with both of ‘em regularly.
I’m an atheist libertarian (with a lower case “L”) who doesn’t eat red meat. I love wine, beer, and martinis, but I’d sell my soul for some good sake or plum wine.
nosi n’ gel one
maybe you’re destined to breed with a catholic californian..
..and i’ve always read it as Nosing Leone.
Would you let me sell your couch for a few bucks on Craigslist if I promise to buy some plum good wine with the cash?
I’m a Jack Buddhist Anarchist who was raised by wolves in the wilds of the Brooks Range in Alaska, this is the real reason why the gumint’s out to get all wolves.
Interestingly enough for being raised by wolves, I too am a vegetarian.
I didn’t realize how much other States despise CA until I spent a week in Texas. Tell someone you’re from Cali and they give you the stink eye. Fine with me, I’m sick of all the lazy-ass carpetbaggers who come here thinking we drink margaritas all day.
I knew someone from Texas whose father said he would disown him if he ever took up a job in California.
So he moved to Chicago. After two years, he found Chicago “too” liberal so he moved back to Texas.
I personally LOVE Californians, well, the ones who are my friends, anyway.
Fine with me, I’m sick of all the lazy-ass carpetbaggers who come here thinking we drink margaritas all day.
Wait — you don’t get to drink margaritas all day?
We’ve been told that was a state-mandated benefit, just like the free ganja and sushi we know you receive.
(All the “Californians” I know, with the exception of a couple of cousins who were born + raised there, are transplants from the Midwest.)
ALL of my neighbors are from Illinois,Indiana, and come to think of it, back in the day, so was I and my folks. From the midwest, that is.
So, those of you who love bashing CA folks, just remember, most of us came from somewhere else first.
Just like the immigrants coming through Ellis Island.
Or are you All native Americans?
Well, I was born here…doesn’t that make me a native?
But I didn’t get here first, if that’s what you mean (my parents beat me here).
The Texans love to see a Clownifornian in town looking for a house. They know there’s a bucket of money and box of stupid attached to the south end.
I guess fewer New Yorkers hit Texas, eh?
I know they have a reputation upstate, as well as in Vermont, North Carolina, etc.
They may make the money but they shure don’t know how to keep it.
OK, let’s change the topic and bash Buddhists and hotdog vendors (in honor of all the 4th of July games):
What did the Buddhist say to the hotdog vendor?
Make me one with everything.
Hotdog vendors are a sacred NYC institution.
This city runs on greed, gas fumes, bagels, hot dogs and the subway.
You diss them, and I send the evil eye in your direction.
But what about Buddhists?
Me, I can diss Buddhists, I’m a Jack Buddhist.
Hotdog vendors are a sacred NYC institution.
As someone who used to live in Chicagaw, you should know where to find the really top-notch dogs.
That German store off Lincoln Square. (Brown line @ Western.)
Lawd, what was its name? I could drive there; I could print it on Google maps.
I feel stupid and un-Chicago now.
Brown Line & Western! Egad. That’s an area I haunt frequently. The Davis theater has been rehabbed - all new cushy seats and all. Same $5.50 matinee, too.
The City of Chicago is trying to use eminent domain to tear down a bunch of businesses just north said spot on Lincoln. Think Ace Hardware and McDonalds but on the opposite (East) diagonal side of the street.
Brown line?
It’s the Ravenswood line. And it will be called that again if I get my way. When I was a kid we used to sneak on the el-trains there by climbing over the top of the Greek restaurant that was next to the station. That was before the station was rebuilt.
Hey - I still remember the street cars in Chicago. Barely.
Yes, Randy seems to be being liened on quite a bit these days per the printed Portland Business Journal.
Hey, I thought you went windsurfing…
He’s blogging while windsurfing using his waterproof “armband” laptop with satellite connectivity.
I know you’re in the middle of nowhere but, fo’ shizzle, tune in, once in a while.
Yeah, I been watching Jurassic Park and wandering around too much lately, looking for a clue to what T Rex really used those tiny arms for - one of paleontology’s great mysteries.
Heck, FPSS, those of us in CA are also way to vitamined up and suntanned and celebrities to worry about the rest of ya’ll. Gosh, my social schedule is filled with red carpet events. And swimming with Jack Nicholson, or going to Lakers games!
Ever notice how many plastic surgeons there are in the greater Dallas metroplex yellow pages? And I thought those girls were natural Texans !
All I know is that every time I’m in Shallow Alto, I feel an overwhelming urge to yell out, “Pollute the planet. Club those baby seals. I love whale sashimi.”
One of these days I’m gonna do it.
“Pollute the planet. Club those baby seals. I love whale sashimi.”
Inconceivable!! You left out something about veal!
FPSS you are so damn funny.
And Lost, thanks you guys for the laughs.
Glad to see you didn’t drown out there, Sleepless, though I was wishing no wind for you for going w/o me.
Palo Alto was my home town, growing up 40 years ago. Almost no one I went to HS with still lives there - can’t afford to. The most famous alum from my year described watching her nanny give her baby a bath, and what a beautiful experience it was. So I think you hit Shallow Alto right on the head.
Wha-? wh-?….ack! Lost! WTF? Wishing no wind on a fellow windsurfer? That’s Bush League, girl! (and I ain’t talkin’ about the prez) And here I thought I knew ye!
And the possibility of me drowning is soooo 2005, as I was swirling in the confluence of the Hood and Columbia rivers without a life jacket. Dumbest move ever!! That’s another story for another time over some Bridgeport Pale Ales or Deschutes Black Butte Porters or Full Sail Amb….well, you get the idea!
I didn’t know you windsurfed! Do you really go to the Great Salt Lake to sail? I visited there a few years ago and wondered if people got out there to sail. Wind was a howlin’ that day too!
OK, I was being hyperbolic when I said that, I really didn’t wish you no wind, I’m not a clueless callous soul like that.
I was really wishing you would crash and burn and you’d be washed out to sea and rescued by a freighter going to Alaska and you’d end up having a beer with me and NoSingleOne.
Oh well, if the truth be told, I have a dark side. That’s what comes from being raised by wolves, though I like WOLVES just fine…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hzrvuBJHJk
Tell us the 2005 story…and nah, I don’t surf the Salt Lake, I dunno if anyone does - Shoe, you know?
Ooh! Alaskan Amber is on my list too!
Never heard of the Samples. Catchy. Except….those weren’t wolves. Video was kinda grainy but I think those were cows.
2005: Here’s the Cliff’s Notes version: So, I come off the water in full gear (wetsuit, life jacket, etc) having a GREAT session, but I was also very tired. It’s REALLY hot out and I REALLY need to leave but decide to go back out. Since it’s hot I figure who needs the wetsuit? Since I was doing well that day I figure who needs the life jacket. (dummkopf!!)
I strip down to my shorts and rash guard and head out in what are now roughly 30 knot (35 mph) winds. I fall off the board and can’t waterstart because the sail keeps getting blown out of my hands, which only serves to get me more tired after about 10 tries. Swirling around in (maybe) 60 degree water makes you do funny things, such as praying out loud (literally, in spite of trying to recover from a Catholic childhood) that if you ever got back to dry land you would never, EVER do that again.
Finally, the Hood River pushed me out far enough into the Columbia that the current of the Columbia pushed me to a sandbar about .5 miles downstream. I was then able to rest on the sandbar and in a few minutes, launch back to land.
I will never, EVER do that again.
Jeezlouise, too bad you didn’t have a helmet cam, that would’ve made a great youtube!!
Just kidding, sounds like that could’ve been very serious. Such is the stuff of adventure, while it’s happening, you think you’re gonna die (and very well might). There have been a number of river deaths this year in both Colorado and Utah, big water.
Glad you survived that one - great story. And you mean to tell me I was really raised by COWS and thought it was wolves all this time? Well, that explains my vegetarianism. Talk about a paradigm shift!
“…demand may continue to decline for six to 12 months”
““A more realistic view of the market here, he said, is that values are off about 10 percent from the peak”
I’m theorizing a new rule-of-thumb: when Realtors predict a time frame for the bottom, double it; when they concede a loss, triple it.
“‘I’m selling at a discount,’ she said. ‘I’m buying at a discount here.’”
Yet another who has no clue that this “discount” is really the beginning of the toboggan ride down the slippery slope of deflated housing prices…
Basic Rule #1 of Tobogganing:
Be sure you know whether or not a tree awaits at the bottom of the slope you’ll be flying down with maximum velocity.
Praise and encouragement to the knifecatchers for their endless contributions to the System.
The System sure needs the money.
Combo, I NEED the money, too, how do I sign up for this system thing? Thanks.
Yeah! Sign me up too!
Is there enough for us both, Oly? If not, I’m just gonna go do my Carp Lodge idea, so not to worry.
Will the Carp Lodge be anywhere near Txchick’s 20-pound trout farm?
How about a carp and slug lodge? They seem to be quite complimentary, and would offer both aquatic and land based fun. I just found a gigantic slug feasting on one of my rare plants. He’s no longer with us, but I’d be happy to pledge many of his close relatives.
Bear, lacks pananche, we need to keep this thing marketable, sorry.
I’m kind of sad I no longer have my box turtle to eat the slugs and snails. It just seemed better than throwing them in the street.
Bantering could market his, um, giant slug on the menu at the carp lodge as “heritage escargot…?”
Naw, too MUCH panache…
“I just found a gigantic slug feasting on one of my rare plants. He’s no longer with us, but I’d be happy to pledge many of his close relatives.”
Slug shortage here in Phoenix, I guess they don’t like it when it gets 112F ?
Homes are selling around here I count 3 just in the last couple of weeks. No luck for my neighboor’s home / retirement fund thats been for sale for 6 months.
” …how do I sign up for this system thing?”
1. Become a friend of Angelo, or
2. Become a bank and borrow at 2%, or
3. Run a hedge fund and share in 20% of the profits and none of the losses of opm, or
4. Become a CEO and get paid millions of dollars to destroy a perfectly good company.
Feel free to add numbers 5 thru ?
Combo - excellent summary of the things that piss me off the most.
Hows about just be born rich, much preferable to be a slacker than a scammer.
Did someone say knife catchers?
They perfected it in Japan.
Apparently, some here Stateside are going to give it a go.
*****
“FOURTEEN years ago, Yoshihisa Nakashima looked at this sleepy suburb an hour and 20 minutes from downtown Tokyo and saw all the trappings of middle-class Japanese bliss: cherry-tree-lined roads, a cozy community where neighbors greeted one another in the morning and schools within easy walking distance for his two daughters.
So Mr. Nakashima, a Tokyo city government employee who was then 36, took out a loan for almost the entire $400,000 price of a cramped four-bedroom apartment. With property values rising at double-digit rates, he would easily earn back the loan and then some when he decided to sell.
Or so he thought. Not long after he bought the apartment, Japan’s property market collapsed. Today, the apartment is worth half what he paid. He said he would like to move closer to the city but cannot: the sale price would not cover the $300,000 he still owes the bank.”
Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt
Yoshihisa Nakashima in front of his condominium building in the suburb of Kashiwa, far from his government job in Tokyo. His apartment is worth half of what he paid 14 years ago, during the real estate bubble.
By MARTIN FACKLER
Published by The New York Times: December 25, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/25/business/yourmoney/25japan.html
“In the 1980’s, Professor Noguchi said, the frenzy in Japan reached such extremes that companies tried to outbid one another even for land of little or no use.”
Sound familiar?
It’s a decent story, but typical of NYT (notice all the praise for our FED?). Another similar aspect of Japan’s bubble is that much of the construction during the bubble period was extremely shoddy. Those are the people truly stuck. The ones who overpaid and have uneven floors, etc.
Another difference is that the suburbs of Tokyo, even those one or two hours away, are well-served by train service, unlike residents of U.S. suburbs.
One problem with Japan, especially Tokyo, is that housing is mostly of the “mansion” or condo variety. (Ever heard of a one-room mansion? Go to Japan!)
Jack - an interesting difference between the Japanese and most Westerners is that it would not occur to the typical Japanese to walk on the commitment they made when they signed the debt contract. This man will ding his retirement big-time, rather than dishonor his commitment. He will pay off that loan and own a property that will never in his lifetime be worth the original principal, much less the compounded interest. Perhaps I am increasingly in the minority, but I admire that. He paid his dime and he took his chance.
Maybe we are nearing the bottom, column in Inman News by a Realtor that I thought I’d NEVER see:
http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/teresa-boardman/a-good-time-buy-it-depends
We’re not even close.
A good buy will be when you meet forlorn people who claim that renting is the BEST choice.
Remember, the price you pay determines the return.
I would not buy a house if ITIM equalled rent. ITIM would have to be significantly lower for me to take on all that financial risk.
“For my neighbors two doors down who bought a townhouse three years ago, it is a bad time to buy real estate. They would take a loss if they sold, as it is worth less now than when they bought it and townhouses are the hardest type of housing to sell in my market. I would advise them not to sell, and if they have to leave for some reason they should consider renting it out.”
Since they bought near the peak of the bubble, the best financial decision might be to walk away in some form (foreclosure or short sale). Depending on the market, it could be decades, possibly not in their lifetimes, before peak bubble values return. Rent will not come close to covering debt service. Renting it out until values “recover” is just another means to bleed a lot of cash over a long period of time.
While her advice is not as bad as some, it ignores the extreme market distortions of this bubble. As this biggest housing bubble in history deflates, traditional responses to more typical cyclical declines are minimally helpful at best.
Would love to get another update on Alaska with the Pac NW sometime, Ben. The Russian president was in the news saying he didn’t want to take economic advice from the US, because clearly we are a bunch of f*ck-ups, and they have lots of oil and housing price inflation.
Alaskans say exactly the same thing, and I’m being drowned out by Kool-Aid drinkers who honestly think we’re the only part of the country that is doing well economically (we’re not), and that real estate prices are justified because of pipeline dreams.
The Russian president was in the news saying he didn’t want to take economic advice from the US, because clearly we are a bunch of f*ck-ups, and they have lots of oil and housing price inflation.
…make that supposedly “lots of oil and justifiable housing price inflation”.
Where in Alaska are you? I spent the summer in Anchorage in 2001. I’d like to know what’s happening here and there. Man, I miss that Moosestooth pizza.
I live in downtown Anchorage…moved here in 2003, and live about 5 blocks from Humpy’s.
Let me know if/when you decide you want to come back and visit us. You’re welcome to stay in my crummy “rent-until-real-estate-tanks-bomb-shelter” condo if you want, and we’ll hit all the local watering holes…my treat.
I’ll send my coordinates by mail this weekend, along with my donation (sorry, I hate paypal).
Happy 4th, man
Thanks. I ;ived about a mile from Humpys, east. That place had the best selection of any beer joint I’ve ever been to. Anchorage is quite an experience. That would be cool, to do an HBB OTR thing to see the PNW and on to Alaska!
Go for it, Ben, I’ll be your couch coordinator, set up couches all the way up for you to crash on with HBBers. You could do another on the road thread with a competition for Worst Most Uncomfortable and Ugliest Couch Award, a free t-shirt saying, “Ben Jones Couched It With Me” or some such obscure insider thing.
Damn! I just got rid of the “Worst, Most Uncomfortable.”
A futon frame with $30 of IKEA cushions not made for a futon frame.
if you make it to Coeur d’Alene, ID, you got a free place to stay!
I love to crash on couches when traveling, if possible…it seems retarded for a single person to pay big bucks for a hotel when money’s tight. I found a great website for ‘frugal’ travelers:
http://www.couchsurfing.com
Wow - over 600,000 couch surfers.
I should start one for squatter’s cot surfers…
I love the blackened Halibut salad they serve there, great beer selection as well. They got the salmon bake cranked up in the back yet?
“The average price of a home sold in the Greater Wenatchee area through May was $275,601 - barely $1,300 above the average price of $274,319 recorded in May 2007. This less-than-half-a-percent increase is the closest the average sale price has come to zero or flat growth since Pacific Appraisal Associates began issuing the report in December 1999.”
The rise in prices in Wenatchee can be attributed 100%, to speculators from the Seattle area. That place is going to get throttled.
Median household income in Wenatchee: $40k. A poor agricultural town that has been hammered by “west side” speculators.
“Hale said that selling the project is the best option at this point. ‘If it goes to auction, the only person who wins is whoever purchases it,’ he said.”
What an insightful comment, thank you Mr. Obvious…..
“I’ve never done an auction before,” Larry Melia said. “You take your bet that people will love it as much as you did and they’ll have an enthusiasm and emotional connection with the property.”
The couple has a price they hope the sale will fetch, but Larry Melia declined to reveal it. They also had it professionally staged and the buyers may bid on the home furnished or unfurnished.
“If the auctioneers market it through their connections, I think it will sell for market value or exceed that. It is the kind of property that has that sort of zing,” he said. “But an auction is unsettling - greed is what it is all about. People will show up and try and steal this property. But when they’re in a room with someone else who wants it, greed will drive their bids.”
Steal the property!? HA! These folks have made the mistake of falling in love with the property and EXPECT to sell it to a like mind. THAT’S it in a nutshell. They did not reveal the price because they know it’s atmospheric. And he STILL has visions of what can be done to the place and hopes those ideas will come to fruition via the next owner. They also know that the market has clearly changed. It doesn’t matter to them though. Whatever selling price is in their heads is more than fair to them. They will be driving by this ranch forever and telling stories about it around the fireplace.
BayQT~
I’m emotionally connected all right … connected with the idea of lower prices and watching the FB’s with thrusting in-n-out JT’s.
Come to think of it I might enjoy the latter just a teensy weensy more.
Even worse, maybe no one will want to “steal” this property. That is what I warn potential buyers about the most because they often haven’t thought about the inherent conundrum. If you buy a property, you might end up owning it!
“The want of a thing is perplexing enough, but the possession of it is intolerable.”
–John Vanbrugh
Want to know why they can’t sell their property and have to try and auction it? Because there is a 5 year supply of houses in the Bitterroot! No joke! See the bottom of this post:
Downturn in Montana market
Go to the Bits Bucket near the bottom to see some funny (unknown) guy making ruthless fun on craigslist.
I’m guessing there must be 10 years supply in the Gallatin Valley right now. Not that you could ever get honest stats from a real estate agent. It will probably take a few decades to absorb all the developed lots.
The Missoula Org of Realtors just posted some reformulated data for May. http://www.missoularealestate.com/index.php/fuseaction/market.main/ID/0d95f240
Looks to me like there’s about 11 months of inventory in Missoula proper: 925 current listings (727 residential + 198 condo listings) divided by 81 sold in May.
But this is misleadingly low. As I mentioned in today’s Bits bucket, the realtors are doing a number on the listings, keeping things on the market for as little time as possible, whether or not they sell. There must be a lot of unhappy sellers in Missoula.
Hey, OT, but there’s a GREAT 4th of July joke up above.
more OT: I think I’m going to have to quit my new job, they want me to WORK. What was I thinking?
I always liked you. Now, I like you more.
Good attitude.
But I thought you liked paleo so it would be like happy fun times except occasionally at a desk, right?
I dunno if I’d like the desk part or not, was supposed to show up first thing Monday morn and I just got here.
LOL. Lost, you must get invited to a lot of parties, especially if there’s any chance they might otherwise be dull. Any party that has a personality like yours in it is usually a lot of fun.
Chip, having been raised by wolves (see above), I’m not very often invited to parties…
correction: COWS
Lost,
I am not sure if you are are joking or serious. Something I learned a long time ago, is the following:
If you can not go back, you have to draw a line in the sand and make a stand. Whatever it takes, you have to succeed.
You may call it motivation or whatever. The key is you reach down inside of yourself to make it.
If not, you have given up and it will haunt you the rest of your life. You have obviously done it in the past with your academic credentials, you can do it again! Work at a job, no matter how inconsequential, is critical. Wellcome to the real world and not academia.
I suspect that you will do find!
Good night Gracie!
I don’t have to succeed and you can’t make me. I have proved in the past that work at a job, inconsequential or not, is NOT critical.
And the only thing I’ve ever had haunt me was that unfuished unfinushed
UNFINISHED beer in the frige.
Good night.
OK, let’s get this thing back on track, not about the PNW, but close (aspendailynews dot com):
Pitkin County’s home inspection policy hit a nerve for an Aspen couple recently, and they’re hoping the assessor’s office will consider changing its policy of sending staffers unannounced to local homes.
A representative of the Pitkin County Assessor’s Office appeared at Patty and Ted Bennett’s Aspen home during an open house to show their home, and was let in by their real estate agent (see letter, page 8). According to the Bennetts, the representative said who she was without showing any identification, then started taking photos of their home without permission.
“I just think people should know about this policy,” said Patty, who was leaving the house when the assessor came in, and at the time was unsure how to react.
Patty was concerned about how the photos would be used, citing a recent example of a burglar who was able to plunder a home after photographing it.
“There might be places in people’s homes where they don’t want it to be public,” she said, such as expensive art.
Or contraband.
Ha.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/070408dnbusmilliondollarforeclosures.1d1aac4e.html
Ouch.
A big fat Texas trout to the head.
How ’bout that Texas sized housing bubble.
“Housing never goes down” David Liariah.
In the peak of the selling season.
Who knew?….who knew?…I thought it was contained.
Wow, everything really is bigger in Texas! Looks like those people are all big hat and no whoops no big hat anymore either.
“A recently renovated condominium complex in Salem has been converted back to apartments after disappointing sales.”
________________________________________________________________
The clock struck midnight on just another Cinderella story…