The Housing Bubble

The Times Call reports from Colorado. “Randy Wilber moved his wife and two kids to Longmont in 2003. He bought a house here with an adjustable-rate mortgage. At first, his monthly payment was nearly $2,000. Two years into the loan, when his rate adjusted upward, the payment went up about $600 a month. At about the same time, Wilber’s wife switched jobs and their annual income dropped.”

‘Wilber immediately started working with the lender to try to lower the payments. ‘They really wouldn’t work with us at all on it,’ he said.”

“The couple soon got behind on their payments, and when the interest rate went up again, it brought their payment to $2,700 a month. Wilber went so far as to take a loan against his retirement account to keep up.”

“‘It put a lot of strain on my family, on my marriage,’ he said. ‘So about the same time, my marriage started to fall apart, too, and then there was no way I could continue making payments just on one paycheck.’”

“When Wilber stopped making mortgage payments, the lender agreed to move on the short sale. Five months after the house went on the market, the deal closed. The lender lost about $32,000 of the principal of the loan.”

“‘It actually was kind of a relief, but at the same time I felt bad - terrible,’ Wilber said. “I felt bad that I defaulted on a debt. I felt humiliated by the process that I had to go through.’”

“Wilber recently tried to buy another home and was told the short sale would affect his credit for another year. ‘That’s just cruel and unusual punishment, if you ask me,’ Ingvaldsen said.”

The Coloradoan. “Fallout from the subprime mortgage fiasco and a tight credit market have led to a resurgence in Fort Collins’ multifamily housing market while single-family building permits are on track to hit an 18-year low.”

“Homebuyers who might not have been able to afford to buy got into homes through subprime loans, no money down and 100 percent loan to value, said Rick Kness, managing broker at Keller Williams.”

“‘The real estate market stole from the rental market for their buyers,’ Kness said. ‘Now the real estate market is giving those buyers back to the rental market.’”

The Arizona Republic. “In a state where one in 20 mortgage borrowers is already at least 30 days behind on payments, more Arizonans than ever before will face the threat of foreclosure this summer as their adjustable-rate mortgage loans jump to a higher interest bracket.”

“As of February, an estimated 157,000 adjustable-rate loans had yet to reach their initial reset dates in Arizona, according to First American CoreLogic. The total value of those Arizona loans was roughly $38.7 billion, company spokeswoman Meghan Donovan said.”

“First American determined that nearly 10 percent of those loans would reach their initial reset dates between March and August, with the highest monthly total - about 2,600 loans, valued at nearly $665 million - occurring in July.”

“Most borrowers awaiting initial loan resets have accrued no equity because of plummeting land values, making it virtually impossible to refinance. For some of them, foreclosure is all but inevitable.”

“‘My opinion is that we haven’t seen the worst of it,’ said Kevin Murphy, executive director of Labor’s Community Service Agency in Phoenix. ‘People who got into those stupid loans did so with the idea that the property value would increase.’”

The Globest.com. on Arizona. “Harvard Investments Inc. and Meritage Homes of Arizona Inc. paid $27 million to acquire 650 acres of residential development land in the Lakes at Rancho El Dorado. The Scottsdale, AZ-based companies bought the property at auction from Wachovia Bank and Wells Fargo Bank, which had taken it back from a previous Meritage partnership.”

“It originally was bought for $39 million by Scottsdale-based Maricopa Lakes LLC, a partnership of Meritage and Scottsdale-based Hacienda Builders Inc. formed in November 2004.”

“The land is a mix of partially developed land and finished lots at the northeast corner of Smith Enke and Porter roads in Pinal County. The acreage is approved for construction of 1,985 single-family homes.”

The Arizona Daily Star. “The green and gold hills of the 530-acre Campstone property in Huachuca City ripple into the distance, surrounded by mountains and few signs of civilization other than an occasional plane from nearby Fort Huachuca. The owners, developers Michael Combs and Mark Johnson, want to add about 1,400 homes there - doubling the population of Huachuca City.”

“Combs and Johnson put their development companies into Chapter 11 bankruptcy last week to buy time. Mayor George Nerhan said the market already is in a slump, and a new development wouldn’t make sense. ‘It’s the wrong time,’ he said.”

“The credit crunch could make salvaging the plan difficult, said Neubeck, the planning consultant. It’s ‘very, very hard to get financing right now,’ he said. ‘The traditional banks, right now they won’t do raw land at all. You need to have so much liquidity that it’s pretty impractical.’”

The Yuma Sun from Arizona. “As testimony to the slow real estate market, there were no bidders for an auction last month of about 121 acres of state trust land located at 40th Street and Avenue 9E, said Jamie Hogue, deputy land commissioner.”

“The property had been appraised at $6.2 million. It will be at least a year before the land comes up for auction again, hopefully with a recovery of the market, Hogue said.”

“In contrast, New Sun Homes paid $14 million - twice the appraised value - for 160 acres two years ago after a bidding war with Elliott Homes.”

The Las Vegas Sun From Nevada. “At North Las Vegas’ Bargain Pawn, nearly every transaction has a back story: Someone is struggling through hard times. Lately the shop has been seeing a rush of middle-class customers. A lot of them seem to have jobs in real estate and auto sales, manager David Bramlett said.”

“Customers say they’re facing foreclosure, no longer have credit cards and need cash. That’s where Bramlett’s pawnshop comes in. They hock jewelry, electronics, guns. ‘They bluntly tell us, I never had to pawn anything in my life and here I am,’ he said.”

“Carolyn Trepner-Kirson, proprietor of a consignment shop that offers secondhand Gucci evening wear and Jimmy Choo sandals, has seen a 40 percent drop in business over the past five years.”

“And now it’s worse. Storefront signs advertise brands such as Chanel, Valentino and Prada, but a few weeks ago, Trepner-Kirson hand-wrote a larger and more telling message on the front door with white shoe polish: ‘Sale.’ She’s slashing prices.”

“Her customers have forsaken Armani and Prada for Target and Forever 21. She blames the economy. Realtors and mortgage brokers who used to be regulars come in sporadically, Trepner-Kirson said.”

“Customers who used to purchase a purse in every color are now buying one in a neutral shade. The woman who would replenish her wardrobe every season in better times might now make due with the same outfits for one more year.”

“And the clothes brought in to sell? They’re a little more tired than normal. ‘They’re resoling their shoes instead of buying new,’ she said. ‘There’s no money to buy a new pair of Manolo Blahniks.’”

“But, there is no shortage of people who want to exchange clothes for cash. In less than an hour on a recent weekday, three women entered the store bearing handbags, furs and armloads of sparkling evening gowns and St. John’s suits.”

The Telegraph on Nevada. “Casino owners in Las Vegas have been warned that America’s economic slowdown had left the gambling mecca facing ‘its most severe downturn ever.’”

“Keith Foley, a gaming analyst who tracks 55 gambling companies for Moody’s, said the casino industry was ‘in the midst of what could be its most severe downturn ever.’”

“‘After 9/11, when it bounced back really quickly, everyone thought Vegas was immune to just about anything,’ he said. ‘It is suddenly obvious and maybe kind of scarey that it is not.’”

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “Nevada’s unemployment rate made its biggest month-over-month jump since 1980, the earliest available numbers. This is the largest month-over-month change for the state’s unemployment rate, said Jered McDonald, an economist for the department’s research and analysis bureau.”

“‘It’s the biggest we’ve seen,’ McDonald said. ‘It’s a pretty big jump. Things are getting pretty bad.’”

“Construction job losses were responsible for the highest percentage of unemployment claims, he said, followed by office and administrative support, food preparation, sales and related fields, and management, he said.”

“‘It shows that we’ve got a lot of people hitting the job market looking for jobs that just aren’t there,’ McDonald said. ‘It’s hard to say: Is this a new level? Are we going to go up from here or down from here? It’s too early to tell.’”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “Nicolas and Juanita Cignetti are bringing down Las Vegas just as they built it, a little bit at a time. The Canton, Ohio, couple has been visiting Las Vegas — sometimes as often as six times a year — since the Rat Pack prowled the Sands hotel and a gallon of gasoline cost 33 cents.”

“Now gasoline costs more than $4 a gallon and the Cignettis aren’t planning a return to Las Vegas. Wall Street is fearful that middle-class vacationers like the Cignettis who helped fuel the rise of modern-day Las Vegas are ready to turn their backs on Sin City.”

“‘We are just going to hang tight until we see some relief,’ said Nicolas Cignetti. ‘I can wait until prices come down and, if they don’t, so be it.’”

“For the first time in recent memory, two benchmark indicators of the health of Las Vegas, the number of hotel rooms in development and airline seat capacity at McCarran International Airport, are moving in opposite directions.”

“According to the Official Airline Guide, seat capacity at McCarran is expected to decline 12 percent in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the number of available hotel rooms on the Strip is expected to increase 18 percent by the end of 2009.”

“‘They are worried,’ said Tom Parsons, CEO of BestFares.com, of the airlines. ‘You have to be worried, too, in Las Vegas. You are truly a discretionary city.’”

“The economic downturn grabbing national headlines looks very personal up close, in the midnight lighting of a Rapid Cash store on Nellis Boulevard. Between 9 p.m. and 1 a.m. on a nothing-special Friday, two dozen working Las Vegans find themselves where they never imagined they’d be: in line for a short-term loan just to make ends meet.”

“Rapid Cash employees see an appreciable increase in customers with variable-rate mortgage woes. ‘It’s really killing me,’ says Yvonne Acfalle, a 39-year-old banquet manager and mother of three, as she collects a short-term loan of $800 to avoid yet another late mortgage fee.”

“‘Even if I got a big raise,’ she says, ‘it still wouldn’t be enough.’”

“The mortgage Acfalle and her husband took out to buy a house in 2005 jumped from $1,200 to $1,600 per month in May, and probably will continue increasing every six months. She says she wants to sell, but can’t because her house has lost $50,000 in value.”

“‘I don’t know what we’re gonna do,’ she says.”

KCPW from Utah. “A new report from the Utah Foundation shows that purchasing a condo or townhouse, what’s known as multifamily housing, is becoming a popular choice for young Utah families. The main factor is the high appreciation rates of single-family homes.”

“‘And it used to be, just 3 years ago or so, a young Utah family could still find a single family home for $150,000 or something like that. And you just can’t find that anymore unless it’s very small and very old,’ says Utah Foundation Executive Director Stephen Kroes.”

The Spectrum from Utah. “Call it the state of real estate in Southern Utah, as homeowners, sellers and buyers attempt to adjust to a settling market after record appreciation took the nation by storm three years ago.”

“About a year ago, some buyers found their homes worth less than what they paid for them, and some sellers kicked themselves for not selling when the market was at its peak.”

“‘”We just got a notice the other day advising us to watch for foreclosed homes with pools that can now go bad without maintenance,’ said Ronnie Vause, a 36-year veteran of the real estate market.”

“The current housing market isn’t all doom and gloom in Southern Utah, although Washington County building permits are expected to be only 600 this year compared to a projected 1,200, said H. Allen Carter of Southern Utah Title.”

“‘We didn’t err in our calculations,’ Carter wrote of the figures that are at a 20-year low. ‘We simply underestimated the quantity of foreclosures and the speed with which lenders would bring the gavel down.’”

“Washington County prices dropped from an average of $339,135 in 2006 to today’s level of $219,140. ‘I’d say that home sales are picking up from what they were a year ago, but they’re selling for less,’ said Vause. ‘The downturn caught a lot of speculators by surprise, and most of them are facing losses because of it.’”

“‘As the market heated up in Vegas, it also heated up here,’ Vause explained. ‘On a percentage basis, we fared about like Vegas did, although we’re a much smaller population with a much smaller realtor population. Nevertheless, we saw prices go up while supply was at a minimum, making prices increase even more. St. George became a haven for investors.’”

“Cedar City has gained activity in real estate over the past six months, said Ron Ragona of Century 21 First Choice Realty. ‘Prices have dropped up here in the last year. Some of the expensive homes have dropped 20 to 25 percent,’ he said.”

“Duck Creek, which is about 30 miles east of Cedar City, has seen a downturn in activity for second-home residences, said Jerry Koller of Duck Creek Realty.”

“‘I’d say that sales fell as much as 75 percent,’ Koller explained. ‘We noticed the change beginning in June of ‘07. Since our market is directly related to Las Vegas, people are a little apprehensive about investing in the real estate market at the present time. People up here need to be more realistic with their sales prices. However, most people still haven’t lowered their prices.’”

“Koller said sales have been in the upper price ranges from $600,000 to $1.2 million. ‘We have a lot of stuff up here in that price range,’ he said. ‘Two years ago, cabins in the price range sold before they were ever completed. Now, they have been sitting on the market for three months. We need buyers. That’s for sure.’”