Bits Bucket For July 7, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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I had a real estate agent show me property in Ludington, MI under $100,000. I can report that the majority were foreclosures or vacant. Mainly anything under 100 grand were to me, unliveable.
At the time I could only identify one foreclosure from the internet but I would like to report that it seems that there are many bank owned properties that don’t seem to make it to the foreclosure web sites.
It seems to me that it is going to be a long time before real estate prices get real, so I am dropping any buying a house idea for a least a couple more years.
I said to heck with Ludington and am going to rent an apartment in Grand Haven, MI for $540 per month which includes HEAT. I’ll be 3 miles from the entrance to the Grand Haven State Park which AOL has rated as one of the top ten best family oriented beaches in the nation.
I love that red Lighthouse.
I’m very surprised your agent couldn’t find you anything decent around Ludington under 100K. Were you just looking in town itself?? Did you do any looking outside town at all??
Good to see though you’re not in any hurry, and you’re in a nice spot in Grand Haven. Good luck with it.
I’d like to see more advice on buying these foreclosures. Although at the bottom of this market houses will probably cost the going rate of a good foreclosure. I do anticipate it to get that bad.
It amazes me that no matter how long these houses sit, people are still waiting on the bubble prices. I have a feeling that many people are caught upside down and cant afford to lower. As people start losing their jobs, they will have no choice but to let it go back to the bank.
I wonder if the new bill by Senator Dodd allows people to refinance that have no jobs? I know many people are talking 50% hair cuts from the highs but I’m anticipating it to get much worse than that. Say .25 on the dollar.
The reason I anticipate it to get so bad, is that other countries are now starting to slow down. They’ll have their own set of housing problems, so foreigners will not be buying our so called cheap properties. Why would you want to buy in the U.S. when you can buy a nice property in Brazil?
That’s why so-called bailout bills and proposals frost my ever-lovin’ patootie. Because they foster a wait and see attitude, where people hang on hoping for a miracle. Ain’t gonna be no miracles. But just the idea that there might be causes people to wait if they can. I want them to abandon all hope right now.
“I wonder if the new bill by Senator Dodd allows people to refinance that have no jobs? I know many people are talking 50% hair cuts from the highs but I’m anticipating it to get much worse than that. Say .25 on the dollar.”
Dodd can hook you up with a nice property AND a fantastic interest rate! He is, after all, a Friend Of Angelo’s…
Have no job? Dodd and Frank will love you even more. And have some kids, too? Single Mom? You’re a superhero!
Short sales may be the best way to go, IF you don’t mind catching a falling knife! I am seeing in Northbrook IL, 3 bed, 2 bath split level homes in nice locations (in town, not near RR tracks) selling for 320K. The bank took a 65K BATH
on a place I was watching. Wishing prices for similar homes are 390K -500K, At least with a short sale you get a decent / non trashed home. Due to the climbing foreclosure rate & falling prices, I think it is way too early to commit.
From my recent experience it isn’t worth talking to the bank about short sale. Most FBs in Socal are foreclosed on before the bank gets back to the buyer on approving a short sale.
We’ve quit looking at anything for sale that isn’t REO. Why? Individual sellers are delusion or forced to ask for what they owe, or both.
My experience has been that banks are still not geared up to get rid of foreclosed properties.
All of the ones that I have been watching have taken at least 6 months before they are sold. A house can deteriorate a lot in 6 months….
Can you low ball with a bank short sale?? I am in the Manchester, NH area and it seems like the only decently priced houses are REO or short sale.
“bank short sale”
I’m going to assume you mean to say, “bank owned property” aka, “REO”.
For the most part the asking price is the amount the bank needs to be made whole.
If you don’t low ball on REO then you might as well tattoo “IDIOT” on your forehead. Believe me, there will be plenty more sweet deals coming along in the next year or two for you to snap up.
Bob-
NoLo Press is a self-help legal co., that has worthwhile books on real estate. They probably have some on foreclosures. They have a website.
NoLo Press probably has books on short sales too.
I copied this off another site but it’s a new banking fraud (IMO) twist to delay the day of reckoning. What a bunch of flippin a-holes.
“Shadow banking is back, as the banks have found a new way to hide non-performing loans and to avoid public foreclosures. I’ve been looking at property for sale in Cape Coral, Fl. Many of the listings say “corporate owned”. Rather than being real corporatons, these are shadow banking operations.
The bank forms a seperate management company and “sells” the REO property to that entity. Now, neither the property, nor the non-performing loan appears on the bank’s books. The bank no longer has to raise money to bolster its reserve requirements. This cauterization and sterilization of non-performing assets hide the banks’ zombification from the FDIC. This is a big scam, and it should be big news, but I haven’t read about it anywhere. I wonder if Mike Morgan has written anything about this. Florida is also KD country. I wonder if he has picked up on this “hide the sausage-making” move.”
So the next step is to put lipstick on this new company and go public with it.
Oh, and I almost forgot my daily “tin foil” for the regulars!
http://dprogram.wordpress.com/2008/05/21/as-america-collapses-us-government-secret-plans-revealed/
‘…“tin foil” for the regulars!’
That is way too much tin foil for me, pal.
Remember, “board members” of the bank are going to pick off all the really good ones.
Its going to get so bad that the board members will be under water.
“Its going to get so bad that the board members will be under water.”
I wonder how that will work: approving your friend’s short sale. Are there any guidelines for short sales?
When I started going to sheriff sales, I wondered why there was not more effort toward getting info out. I think it may be as you describe; keep the steals a secret.
“I think it may be as you describe; keep the steals a secret.”
I have a first hand account of this happening in Pennsylvania. I wish it was not true, but it’s a necessary piece of info to keep in your bubble-sitters bag of game plays. The reality is that some bankers have seen this before and are acting. Not all, but some.
Seems to me to be a huge conflict of interest…
These are called “Pocket Listings” and they are supposed to be illegal, but as we have all seen UHS and the REIC are somehow exempt from legalities and ethical behavior.
I think it may be as you describe; keep the steals a secret.
Hey, its the American way!
Work hard to make money? Pfffttt!!
Realtards steer their buddies to the best ones too, before they’re even listed.
i knew one agent who had a few such buddies. In one case, the agent had power of atty to sign for his buyer in the event the deal needed to be locked up immediately.. He did prove to deserve that measure of trust.. smart guy..hard working.. knew his siht.
If you want good deals, a good agent will find them for you if youy are a good buyer.
A unusual idea comes to mind: get a realturds license. Get inside info before buying. Thoughts?
Knowledge is power, and getting one can’t be that hard. If you refuse to pay dues to the NAR and its bretheren, could you still get ‘privileged’ info?
I’ve been seriously considering the same thing. I had the opportunity recently through a realtor friend to use their MLS login for a few days while I was checking out an area. It was eye opening, to say the least, how much information is readily available but withheld.
Even if it cost a couple thousand for a year (I have no idea what typical fees are) to hold a license allowing MLS access, that’s a steal for what it would ultimately save me, when I get to the point of being 100% certain about buying in a particular area. Sure, a lot of the information can be obtained through other sources, but having all that knowledge at your fingertips could be the difference if time was a factor on a particular purchase decision.
Can anyone else shed light on what’s required at a minimum to buy in to the MLS?
Didn’t I just read that a judge ordered the mls open to online listing companies?
I was thinking of this at one time. How hard could it be…every stupid woman has a R-E licence.
My attorney warned me of one potential downside: your ability to successfully sue should you get ripped off (undisclosed problem with property, title issue, etc) may be diminished because as a licensed R-E agent you should have had the ability to identify these problems, risks, etc. It would look especially bad, for example, if you as a buyer & licensed R-E agent had to sue some “poor individual homeowner” who “didn’t know” about the toxic dump in the backyard, etc.
I don’t think this is actually an issue, though! For example Barney Frank and Chris Dodd make no effort to eliminate licensed R-E agents (or licensed mortgage brokers) from bailout eligibility. I would imagine that R-E agents make up a significant percentage of FB’s…..
Shoe, if you have a buddy in Colorado who will let you use his address as your home base, you can then register for RE courses by mail with Sterling College in E. Colorado. All they want the address for is to say you have a Colo. contact, then you get all your stuff by Utah mail.
The complete course is $1000 and is incredibly easy, open book tests, etc. After you finish that (very fast), you then go to Grand Junction for the RE test. This licenses you in Colo. Colorado and Utah have an agreement whereby you can then get your Utah license for $100, no test, just an application.
I don’t know how easy this would be to transfer to other states, but Colorado does have similar agreements for licensing. Once you have the license, it’s not much cost to be an inactive realtor, but in order to be active, you have to work under a broker until you have a certain amount of experience. Each broker determines their own fees that they’ll charge you for this.
As an aside, I’ve had inside access to Colorado MLS and have used it extensively to look at listings, and I can’t say it really had that much valuable information that I couldn’t get elsewise. About the only benefit I could see would be acting on your own behalf as the sales agent and saving that percentage in fees, but there may be tax issues there, you may have to declare it as income. A lot of agents will let you “borrow” their MLS to look if they think they’ll get the sale.
rueven,
That’s a good point, but the ability to sue in the lack of due diligence isn’t that big a comfort for me. I’m way more concerned that due diligence be performed in the first place, and I’m finding that a whole lot of realtors don’t do that. I need to do my own anyway, so why pay the realtor.
lost,
I don’t see much benefit on the sale side. Flat fee listings look like they should work just fine. It’s the buyer’s side information that I want. There’s no such thing as a meaningful “comp” anymore, and there won’t be for at least a few years. The only way to close in on an appropriate price is to look at sales histories from 1995-2002.
Thanks for all the CO info - what I’m still wondering is, does one need to be affiliated with a broker to get MLS access, if you’re not listing any properties of your own?
hunting for properties sucks.. it involves much more than reading the morning’s new listings (which, btw, won’t hit the MLS book for days at least). You need some very comfortable shoes cause there’s a lot of footwork.
Finding good deals is an extremely competitive game among agents. Only the best succeed.
imo, it’s a job best left to a professional who focuses on this as a specialty..
I think it’s a subscription service, you could probably get it on your own with a broker’s license, but it may be expensive. When you get licensed in Colo., everyone’s a broker, you just can’t open an office on your own w/o something like 2 years work under another broker. In Utah, they still have the distinction of broker and agent.
It sounds like you’d be buying elsewhere, but if you want to know more about Utah law, contact Kelly Stelter in Moab, great guy (river rat, ex nurse), with Coldwell Banker.
Thinking about leaving T. soon? Still interested in your house.
… Barney Frank and Chris Dodd make no effort to eliminate licensed R-E agents (or licensed mortgage brokers) from bailout eligibility. I would imagine that R-E agents make up a significant percentage of FB’s…..
That is false. The refinancing bills being discussed have rather strict criteria such that the maximum number who could qualify if they applied is estimated at a maximum of around 400,000 people nationwide. Second homes and vacation homes used for speculation are not a part of the picture, and that eliminates most of the cases you are talking about.
It is really not cool to be this loose with the numbers. The lesson of the bubble is that it is worth it to do the math and understand the market. You are getting yourself worked up over a meaningless projection that simply doesn’t apply. Blaming a couple of politicians for this mess would be nice, but the mania was pervasive.
Maybe leaving part time, but unlikely evacuating for a while. Don’t want to move ’til we’re ready to actually buy and settle someplace new, and I can’t see that happening before late 2009 at the absolute earliest. But who knows.
Joey, I don’t expect to find “hot” properties through better MLS access. I want to be able to appropriately assess the market value of those properties that are listed, and to figure which sellers are most desperate. Today’s and next year’s comps are virtually useless. In serious price neogtiations over the next 2-3 years, I expect that the arguments will be over which year’s comps (1995-2002) are currently the most appropriate for a given area.
I think your biggest challenge would be finding a broker who would let you hang out your shingle under his/her brokerage, without you producing much for them. You would probably have to agree to take some desk duty or hold some open houses or something else to make it worth their while. I don’t know if the declining market would make a broker more likely or less likely to take on a mostly non-productive agent, even if they aren’t paying you a salary.
The RE salesperson schooling, licensing and testing generally isn’t that hard - although the schooling can take a few weeks.
JoeyinCalif: Agree hunting for a home is a real PAIN. One of the few way of finding out what is toxic residue I have found is to chart & watch the area for over a YEAR! This includes tracking sales, going on the assessor’s & recorder of deed’s web sites & see what type of home it really is, last sale info, carryovers from last year (i.e. toxic waste), … I am thinking of automating the search with a custom SQL DB. The realClods still are re-listing stuff from last year here, and if ya didn’t track the listing, you would never know.
In Arizona, you could be an agent with a few brokerages that only charge around $30 per month to have your license with them. There is no commission split. Plus $350-$400 per bought/sold property, which includes error & omissions insurance.
NAR, local realtor fees, MLS account, lockbox fees, continuing education credits, and state licensing fees would add up to about $1000 per year. Plus the $360 per year for the monthly brokerage fees mentioned above, and the damage would be around $1,400 per year. I do not know about Colorado costs.
As far as the income tax issue mentioned, I do not believe that paying less for a house and accepting zero commission would be a taxable event.
iftheshoefits .. i actually thought about recommending an appraiser’s license. My nephew got one so it’s can’t be all that difficult..
In addition to gaining the ability to accurately assess properties, you’ll be privy to all sorts otherwise hidden information.. and it’ll open doors that a salesman’s license won’t.
As for the actual hunt for suitable properties, i still think it’s way too much work to do it one’self (agents do it for free), even assuming you’ve got what it takes.
IllinoisBob… i like that idea. If the program worked, I might pony up $29.95 with $10 monthly updates if i was ready to buy something today.
the big news of 08- the banks are lying and dragging their feat hoping for a bigger bailout
There is no bail out and the lenders are overwhelmed with foreclosures. If you think otherwise, go long on their stock.
I might go with some calls on the news of a bailout passing causing the stock to jump.
Soon as the value jumps up I’ll ditch it though.
Hopefully the FHA will take a long time to reorganize and more of the bad loans get washed out. I didn’t want to see the FHA get killed in all this.
Ben,
Must-see video from the Washington Post. Nervous Treasury Dept guy briefs a crowd of 4 journalist (small number due to recent cutbacks). Bottom line, either hide the valuables and buy a shotgun or take two valium and call the treasury dept in the morning.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2008/07/03/VI2008070302627.html
hahaha!
Vaguely Resembling Real Price Inflation…
I laugh that Mr. Samuelson is also admitting that he is completely ignorant of John Williams and his shadowstats.com, where inflation is calculated the way it was actually measured in 1974, and which shows that price inflation is now HIGHER than it was in 1974, with inflation now being up around 13%!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/daughty070408.html
“And Mr. Williams also calculates unemployment the way it was measured in 1974, too, and it shows that unemployment is higher now, too, at over 10%!”
How high will it go once businesses really start shedding jobs?
I wonder if these are having an effect on commercial real estate rates?
“The Business Center at Prince George’s Plaza offers virtual offices starting from $75 per month. Project a new business image by scheduling meetings in a professional location with all amenities. Conference rooms and training room available for hourly rentals. “
Retail Property Has Worst Second Quarter in 30 Years
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25563076/site/14081545/
i think someone here was talking about this not to long ago. in the article it says there is about 3.2 million square feet of office space available and that part of the available space came in the form of 5.7 million square feet of new development. and they just keep on building!
When you schedule a meeting in PG Plaza’s “professional location,” does the $75 monthly fee include a Blackwater fully armed escort into and out of the area?
I wanna know if you get a bowl full of mints?
PG=dead honkey
China gets it
China, the second-largest energy user, has stepped up its search for oil and gas at home and abroad to sustain the fastest growth among the world’s 10 biggest economies.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azSEn4kffUd4&refer=home
Wow, thats really great!
We can melt the earth even faster now.
Drill now, Drill here, without novocaine…
Let’s start @ 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
comeon dude.. if we stop using oil, where’s algore gonna get his jet fuel? How’s he going to spread the message? Think ahead, whydontcha..
Maybe it would help to think of the algor message as being kind of like Yul Brynner telling people “Don’t smoke”.
I’d rank his message up there with NAR’s warning that I’d better buy now or be priced out forever.
How do you get from the idea that we should be conscious of our own impacts to the idea that prices always go up? The analysis algor talks about and the recommendations he makes might be wrong, but at least those ideas are presented in the context of observed facts supplemented with reason. Sales people have always used hype to activate people’s lizard like subconsciousness, but the “priced out forever concept” is laughable and easily dismissed. You are just being reactionary.
bah
Aside from those who were unfortunate enough to be brainwashed by modern education, belief in global warming due to human activity requires a degree of ignorance combined with blind faith that is usually reserved for religious fanatics.
But i do admit that religion can be a productive thing, within limits.
It’s not really blind faith when there are charts and graphs and changes you can see. You seem rigid as well. The Heated Debate was a book by a skeptic that frowned on the manner of the public dialogue. Believers tried to force the issue and got the press, but there were always moderates on both sides. Alas, that kind of thing doesn’t fit in a sound bite and gets lost.
Dueling graphs doesn’t really appeal to me, and i really don’t care to change what other people believe, nor am I in search of agreement.
Because of my personal observations and in my amateurish studies of the sciences and various other subjects, i’ve come to my own conclusion… and i’m happy with it.
“I’m melting! Melting! Who would have thought that some little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness?”
LMAO
1.3B for India and 1.1B for India are large multiplication factors.
The idea that 2.4 Billion people might crave la vida oil, seems to be lost on the neo-cons.
The idea that, no matter what stands in it’s way, humankind has proven to not only adapt but flourish certainly is lost on the neophytes.
Human beans lived without crude oil somehow, until around 150 years ago.
and, 150 years from now, they will no doubt be doing it again.. amazing creatures they are.
“Human beans lived without crude oil somehow, until around 150 years ago.”
So you’d rather us go back to the standard of living of 150 years ago?
Keep in mind that diseases like Polio were very prevalent, with simple things like the flu even killing 10’s of millions of people regularly.
Streets were dirt - meaning mud when it rained, and very often covered with horse poop.
In most areas people took baths maybe once a month. Deodorant generally didn’t exist, so most people attempted to cover their odor with perfume.
Personally, I’ll take progress. And crude oil has been a huge enabler of that progress.
There was around 700 million of us on this good Earth before the industrial revolution and oil changed everything, so around 6 billion people are gonna have to make themselves scarce, sometime in the near future…
so around 6 billion people are gonna have to make themselves scarce, sometime in the near future… So do away with yourself now & avoid the rush.
I belong to the 700 million club, as in having survival skills.
so around 6 billion people are gonna have to make themselves scarce
that’s what they said about food shortages a hundred years ago.. but all the newly invented methods and tecnhiques of agriculture and food supply were not foreseen.
Good logic disallows changing one element (oil availability) to arive at an ultimate outcome: Obliteration of the human species.
The lack of oil, if and when it happens, will trigger (and is already triggering) investigation into alternative sources of energy, alternative energy strategies and a slew of new invention.
I belong to the 700 million club, as in having survival skills. Right. You’re different.
As a matter of fact, I am different.
I co-exist with Mother Nature on her terms, not mine.
I just read an interesting article in Smithsonian, about the Homo Sapiens and Neanderthals. They lived simultaneously in two different regions - the Neanderthals mainly in Europe and Homo Sapiens in Africa. It appears that the first time the Homo Sapiens tried to migrate out of Africa they were beaten out by the Neanderthals - mainly because the Neanderthals were more physically capable, i.e. stronger and tougher.
Several thousand years later though, the Homo Sapiens got smarter and started developing more advanced tools. The next time they migrated out of Africa, the Neanderthals were the ones who got wiped out - completely gone. The difference was very subtle - the Neanderthals only knew how to use pointed rocks and spears manually, whereas the Homo Sapiens had developed spears you could throw. It made a big difference though.
Lesson is the society that had learned to make better tools was the one that survived. The question for today is - what in today’s world are considered the better tools?
Homo Sapiens means “wise men”
No brain, meant a lot of pain, if you were a Neanderthal.
“I co-exist with Mother Nature on her terms, not mine.”
How did you transport yourself to the high country for backpacking? Bicycle?
We may have a great shortage of oil and credit, but smug will alway be in ample supply.
I can walk from my backdoor to 10,000 feet, in 2 days time.
Neanderthals were supposed to have big brains.
And humans have enough McGyver-ishness to figure out how to live without oil. I believe we already have that ability, and yet, the PTB don’t want us to utilize it.
It won’t line the few pockets it already does via oil/guns/wars.
I can walk from my backdoor to 10,000 feet in 3 hours’ time. I can also walk to the post office and general store in 5 minutes time. I guess I’m just better than you. Who gives a sh**? That’s the point.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survival_of_the_fittest
Keep in mind that diseases like Polio were very prevalent,
Actually, there were no polio epidemics until the 1880’s ( and really the 1910’s in the US), when sewers and other methods of cleanliness prevented babies from being exposed to the virus and developing an immunity.
Its a disease of modern life.
“Actually, there were no polio epidemics until the 1880’s ( and really the 1910’s in the US), when sewers and other methods of cleanliness prevented babies from being exposed to the virus and developing an immunity.”
Yea and there was a 2in5 chance of not living until 5 years of age . Want to watch your kids in front of you from rampant water born disease. Get rid of the sewers.
“So do away with yourself now & avoid the rush.”
Always a predictable - and idiotic - response to anyone bringing up the population concern. Pick any social or environmental problem and it can be tied to uncontrolled population growth.
Ironic how humans try to regulate other animal populations claiming that doing so eliminates disease, etc with no thought to the benefits of controlling our own.
“Human beans”
LMAO!
That would be 1.3B for China, of course.
But…I thought America was the sun which the Earth revolved around and when we slowed down economically oil consumption crashed? No?
US oil demand is delining significantly due to higher prices. But that’s not happening yet in China and other countries.
So does that mean the new president will need to invade China, to stop global warming? I mean, the survival of the planet is at stake and all that, and what we do doesn’t much matter anymore, as y’all said above.
No blood for carbon!!
Give trees a chance!
“…but that’s not happening yet in China and other countries.”
you believe this cr*p. “consumption” is declining worldwide. “demand” is growing and i have no idea where the difference is going. probably some storage. just think about it this way, oil price increase is more burdensome for the third world than the first world. don’t tell me that our consumption is declining due to the price increase while some poor schmuck somewhere is consuming more. a few countries might be an exception due to subsidies.
China gets it
If they really got it, they’d be bigtime exploring alternative sources.
And building a massive, massive power grid so that the electricity generated in one part of the country could be moved to another part. North America should have spent the years since 911 vastly improving our grid and researching ways to make transmission more efficient. If you did that to the infrastructure, private business investment in alternative energy would have been massive - way more than we have now.
.. don’t think that business hasn’t been obsessed with the idea ever since the battle between AC or DC’s generation and transmission was fought.. both seeking dominance for a standard method back in the day of Edison, at the very beginnings of the electrical age. AC won out because it was cheaper to transmit long distance.
Science and business have tried everything known, and continue to do so.. things like superconductors which suffer zero-losses in power transmission have been the result.. However, the technology is still maturing.
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=208400851
joey, any thoughts on Tesla?
I’m no Teslaholic.. his accomplishments are well documented. As to his more exotic ideas and theories i expect most will eventually be proven correct.
Time.. space .. gravity.. electricity and magnetism.. all of the great minds of physics have at least toyed with the idea of uniting them, and someone eventually will.
Regarding his life and death in relation to his (lack of) money and patents, he should have hired a business manager.
Interesting, thanks. He did his first experimenting not too far from where I grew up (Telluride).
China already is the largest producer of solar panels.
ever heard about the customer dissatisfaction with these panels from china? quality is not that good (yet?).
All is not fair at the San Diego County Fair
1.2 million attend event, but some say business was down
By Robert Krier
STAFF WRITER
July 7, 2008
DEL MAR — To some, the 2008 San Diego County Fair, which closed yesterday in Del Mar, was exceptional. To others, it was, well, less than fair.
With a weakened economy, high gas prices and the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines last month delaying the event’s start and shortening its run, fair officials weren’t sure what to expect. But through Saturday, attendance was up about 400 people a day over last year. More than 1.2 million people passed through the gates this year, shy of the record set in 2007, when the fair was open a day longer.
“Most of the people I talked to were very pleased, considering the doom and gloom the media were portraying,” said Kina Paegert, spokeswoman for the fair. “It’s been great all the way around.”
The joy, however, apparently didn’t spread to everyone. Some game operators along the fair’s midway said business was down 50 percent from last year, and one vendor who pitches garden tools said he had his worst year in nearly 30 years at the fair.
“Most of the people I talked to were very pleased, considering the doom and gloom the media were portraying,” said Kina Paegert, spokeswoman for the fair. “It’s been great all the way around.”
Of course, even the modest rise in attendence may have been due to the staycation trend.
And a shorter schedule.
Not surprising. I can’t think of a place more stuffed full of cheap Chinese throwaway junk than a county/state fair. And that includes the garden tools.
And really, IMO, the best parts of the fair are free anyway. You get to both peoplewatch AND cowwatch. And, given the all the cotton candy and fried Mars Bars, sometimes you do both at once.
I have a great time at the State Fair…Never even venture into the midway…
My state fair is a great state fair. Don’t miss it, don’t even be late…
“But soaring gas and food prices have cut deeply into profits. Boghosian said he paid $3,000 for propane to cook food last year. This year, the propane bill was $7,500. The price of corn and flour jumped 50 percent. And with diesel fuel at more than $5 a gallon, transporting his stand and equipment to the next fair in Orange County will be very expensive.”
Inflation, what inflation?
“Brenden Page, who works game booths at 30 to 40 fairs a year around the country, said his income from the fair this year will be about one-tenth of what it was four years ago.”
“Nobody wants to spend the money,” he said from a hoop-shooting booth. “This is dead. It’s like we’re not even open.”
One more place the HELOC money was going four years ago?
Nobody is forcing these dummies to stay in an unprofitable business. If he doesn’t like making 1/10th of what he did four years ago, he can do something else. What can’t people get it into their heads that if something doesn’t work, it’s time to try something different? Either that, or stop complaining.
Nobody HAS to work for any company, including Wall-Mart, and nobody has a right to ANY job other than one he provides himself. If he succeeds, great, and if he fails, so what? The possibilities are endless. Every day we read about mortgage brokers and realtors holding on by their fingernails instead of letting go and moving on. And then they whine and complain and bitch, and beg the government to come to their rescue. I guess this is human nature, but it wears thin after a while.
“Nobody wants to spend the money.”
That’s because they don’t have any.
To say nothing about the merits of spending money at a “hoop shooting booth”.
Don’t cry for these hucksters, they can easily make $10,000 per day at these fairs.
Foreigners keep mouse alive. I was in Orlando last week.
At first, it was dead as a doornail, far deader than my last trip to WDW in 1999, even though I thought it ought to be a prime week (it was an extended family gathering, not my choice).
Then it picked up. The locals said it was because schools had let out in Europe. Just about everyone where we were staying were from overseas.
If Europeans stopped doing their western National Parks holidays in our country, visitation to said parks would drop around 50%, i’d guess.
That’s how big of a factor they are, now that our citizens can’t afford the dinosaur juice to power their SUVosaurus’s
sounds like manhattan WT
everyone is from europe or asia
Buy what will happen once summer is over. I hear that fall bookings to the World are way down, even though they throw in the dining plan for free in the early Fall. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the free dining promo extended all the way through Thanksgiving.
Vacancies Rise at Retail Centers
Stores Being Closed, Expansions Curbed; Strength in Rentals
By KRIS HUDSON and NICK TIMIRAOS
July 7, 2008; Page A3
The faltering economy took a heavy toll on malls and shopping centers in the second quarter, but it didn’t hurt the rental-apartment market as much as expected.
Vacancies at retail properties rose to multiyear highs in the second quarter as retailers closed stores and curtailed expansion plans. Meanwhile, apartment-complex vacancies remained unchanged and rents rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.1% in the quarter, according to real-estate research firm Reis Inc. in New York.
The higher retail vacancy rate stems from the slowdown in consumer spending and the weak housing market, among other economic pressures. Vacancies at enclosed malls in 76 major U.S. markets rose from 5.9% in the first quarter to 6.3% in the second quarter, the highest level since early 2002, according to Reis.
OPINION
Keep Private Equity Away From Our Banks
By ANDY STERN
July 7, 2008
The recent efforts by Congress and the Federal Reserve to facilitate capital injections by private-equity firms into banks may seem like a welcome development. But a closer look reveals that all that glitters isn’t gold.
A growing number of ailing banks and thrifts need cash fast – and private-equity funds are anxious to deliver. With built-in cash cows in the form of mortgages, credit cards and accounts subject to an endless array of fees and interest-rate hikes, banks are a ripe target for private-equity firms seeking returns of 20%-30% or higher over relatively short periods.
But short-term capital infusions from private-equity funds will only make the banking crisis worse, by encouraging risky behavior and abusive banking practices.
“Private-equity profits are built on big risks, and taking advantage of lax regulation – the very problems that led to the subprime and credit crises.”
Why do I have this vision of private equity firms increasing their profits on the backs of borrowers and taxpayers?
Montana craigslist revolt spreads to the Flathead. Soon to be flagged! LOL
You know what would be funny? About 10 people from here copying and pasting that ad, and then reposting it.
I was just thinking of doing that for Little Rock. I keep hearing RE here is great, but my numbers show sales down 15-20% yoy. I guess the realturds don’t consider that to be siginificant.
I’ve trolled the local Craigslist residential RE section a few times with something similar (but shorter), and got flagged very quickly.
Spam from internet real estate investment companies, commercial, distant locales, and joke posts never got flagged though. I have absolutely no doubt that I was flagged by realtors, who can tolerate anything except the truth.
go to bulleting board #5194 on CL and post links to the spam. That’s the flagging forum and they will take care of it
Sounds like a plan, thanks
Someone did repost it…I wonder who reads CL realty listings anymore besides Realtors and looky-loo idlers like me…
I reposted it on the W. Colo site - “Not going to give it away” - it’s still there.
I read CL all the time just to see what’s there.
Heh…another one disappeared. I think a “friend” who reads my blog is telling his realtor-brother, who is incidentally trying to sell bro’s rentals on CL. LOL I’ll lay off now but it did give me a good laugh.
House Sitter Seeking Foreclosed Home
Are you a bank or realty company with extra abandoned, foreclosed homes on your hands? Worried about squatters, vandals, copper thief’s and other illegal activities? If so, contact me, as I will watch one of your homes in exchange for a place to stay.
I am a responsible young entrepreneur who is looking for a quiet place where I can get my internet business of the ground this winter. I will only need to occupy one room, but will keep the entire house clean and the yard maintained.
Please send me an email if you are interested in drafting a six month lease agreement with the security of maintenance and appearances of occupation serving as rent.
Thank you and good luck finding homes for your foreclosed properties.
http://miami.craigslist.org/mdc/sbw/744470840.html
Times should be getting good for house sitters
Maybe this is ByeFl looking to move out of his parents’ home.
Whatever happened to that guy?
He ran off with Ann Scott.
Ann Scott at times was vicious. When she wasn’t she was able to provide some interesting comments and facts.
yeah, I never knew whether to read her comments or not. She was intelligent, but she reminded me of a couple of classic narcissists I once knew…
He’s working on oil rigs somewhere in PA.
Maybe they don’t have the internets yet in Oil City??
Back from another wonderful backcountry trip into the range of light, a nice break from the heart of darkness, otherwise known as our economy.
Alad,
Personally I would appreciate your description of where you went, etc. “The range of light” doesn’t tell me much. Many people from other areas of the US think CA is Hollywood, LA, & OC when instead it’s a state of immense beauty.
I think my favorites were the redwood areas along the northern coast and the American River near Placerville.
Thanks,
Lip
“Looking eastward from the summit of Pacheco Pass one shining morning, a landscape was displayed that after all my wanderings still appears as the most beautiful I have ever beheld. At my feet lay the Great Central Valley of California, level and flowery, like a lake of pure sunshine, forty or fifty miles wide, five hundred miles long, one rich furred garden of yellow Compositae. And from the eastern boundary of this vast golden flower-bed rose the mighty Sierra, miles in height, and so gloriously colored and so radiant, it seemed not clothed with light but wholly composed of it, like the wall of some celestial city…. Then it seemed to me that the Sierra should be called, not the Nevada or Snowy Range, but the Range of Light. And after ten years of wandering and wondering in the heart of it, rejoicing in its glorious floods of light, the white beams of the morning streaming through the passes, the noonday radiance on the crystal rocks, the flush of the alpenglow, and the irised spray of countless waterfalls, it still seems above all others the Range of Light.”
John Muir
_________________________________________________________
We were on the precipice of a 9,000 foot meadow, looking across to about 20 peaks ranging from 12,000 to almost 14,000 feet…
LOL, the only view from the Pacheco Pass eastward is CV smog, flowery not. You’d be lucky to see the Sierra Nevada Mtns through all the valley smog.
Sad that humanity has done such a good job destroying the beauty of this region, but destruction is what that species does best - all in the name of endless, parabolic growth.
*sigh*
Still, being in a 9,000 ft high meadow looking across the land must be nice!
Thank gawd, George W revoked the ban on snow=mbiling off in the back lands.(sarcsm off_
Yup, we sure love to ruin the beauty we have.
“Still, being in a 9,000 ft high meadow looking across the land must be nice!”
Even nicer yet, was finding a rock with 7 indian grinding holes hidden away on said meadow.
The local indians would live in the low country in the winter and vamoose up to the high country, in the summer.
BYOA, however.
(bring your own acorns)
The American River near Placerville is a mess of smokey garbage right now. I was there yesterday and visibility was horrible due to all the smoke from the fires. Soon I hope it will be nice again though.
I hope you don’t wear anything “gold” on your wanderings…the bad part of “The City” is getting closer and more disparate everyday now…they might lighten your load for gas money, …heck they might even take your “North Face” just to make you suffer!
Worry not…
Nobody’s going to walk your walk for you, and Americans are so lazy, that the prospect of city slickers walking many miles and having to climb thousands of feet with 30 pounds on their back, is remote.
LOL - went to see “Wall-E” last night, and I have seen the (stumpy) face of humanity!
Apparently, some ‘conservative’ critics slate the film, because it allows kids to think ‘mom and dad are BAD’ when it comes to conservation and saving the environment.
Ya think?
BTW - I found it to be delightful. And, as an occasional 3-d animator - gobsmakingly beautiful. Go Pixar!
‘the heart of darkness, otherwise known as our economy’
IMO, people can look at things anyway they chose. When markets start to work as they should, and an economy is getting purged of FBs, REIC middleman and lending scum, I’m actually pleased. Like I mentioned yesterday, who cares if the pirate shop closes down?
I think i’ll open a pyrite shop.
“No dogma taught by the present civilization seems to form so insuperable an obstacle in a way of a right understanding of the relations which culture sustains as to wilderness, as that which declares that the world was made especially for the uses of men. Every animal, plant, and crystal controverts it in the plainest terms. Yet it is taught from century to century as something ever new and precious, and in the resulting darkness the enormous conceit is allowed to go unchallenged.”
John Muir
Oh man, I love reading Muir. Many fond memories of sitting under Colorado aspen trees drinking bad coffee and wandering Alaska and Cali via his books.
The economy was a Potemkin village to begin with.
The positive side of all this change is very strong. Investors are taking a closer look at what their money is going into. There are a lot of interesting developments going on in tech that had been overshadowed by pop fluff like Twitter and Facebook that are cool but will never take in big money or amount to a truly culture changing force. As property values in tech hot spots fall back to normal levels new people are making their way into the halls and cubicle rows of the mighty.
It seems the Sierra Nevada mountains have become Tin-Foil hat magnets, did a tin-foil meteorite fall there or what?
8 days under a tree canopy, Mr. Cole’s tree house addition (now has self contained water supply)…no computer or cell phone…wonderful, but the mosquitoes are like “young republicans” very voracious and out for blood..I come back and find this “rationalization” for my financial contribution to Mr. Cole’s eclectic education…”Teacher…leave those kids alone!”
“It seems the joke’s on them. Sawaya, a former attorney who said, “The worst day in the art studio is still better than the best day in the law firm,”
http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/07/04/lego.artist/index.html
“…NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has estimated that a Tunguska-size asteroid will enter Earth’s atmosphere once every 300 years and says there may be 375,000 objects of such size out there….
the Earth’s atmosphere is continually streaked by space stuff, ranging from the basketball-size (several a day) to the Volkswagen-size (twice a year)….”
NYT
July 6
So I guess a Volkswagen hits the Sierra Mtns every 6 months.
Naah, it burns up in the atmosphere.
You have a marked tendency towards the sensational. Have you considered a subscription to People magazine?
lol
Illegal Aliens from Outer space leading cause of Earth’s pollution! Senators vote to ban Oort cloud contamination.
I prefer the Onion.
“As a true patriot, I would gladly die in battle defending my homeland. I love my country more than my own life. But I would also be more than willing to give my last breath in the name of, say, Mexico, Panama, Japan, or the Czech Republic. The most honorable thing a man can do is lay down his life for his country. Or another country. The important thing is that it’s a country….”
“Can’t we just all be friends..”
paraphrasing Jack Nicholson as President in “Mars Attack” just before the aliens burned him.
LOL best comedy ever..
I just missed getting hit by a passing Passat in low earth orbit, this weekend.
On my last trip, I saw a meteor fall and silently split in two, leaving behind a pair of smoke trails somewhere over Wishon Reservoir.
The red firs didn’t care.
The Earth is not such a terribly safe place on which to dwell- ask any dinosaur.
I watched miniature dinosaurs (lizards) doing push-ups on rocks this weekend…
Never underestimate the power of a midlife crisis. Some of them are quite beautiful.
Yes, beautiful indeed. But I prefer the word “transition”.
A crisis probably isn’t all that beautiful.
Why it will take YEARS for the Florida Housing Market to Recover!
http://www.bcpa.net
SHORT SALES, FORECLOSURES, ASSESSMENTS AND YOUR 2008 TAXES.
If you purchase a property in a foreclosure or short sale, your actual purchase price may not reflect the just (market) value used for determining your taxes. Instead, Florida law requires our office to use the reasonable market price of a sale of similar homes in your neighborhood (or a similar area) sold under normal financial conditions to determine the assessment. Regardless of your 2008 purchase price, assessments in Florida are done a year in arrears. This means your 2008 assessment is based on the sales in your neighborhood (excluding foreclosures, short sales and non-arm’s length transactions) between January 2, 2007 and January 1, 2008
So your BARGAIN foreclosure won’t be a bargain after all..If the house was sold previously for $1 million and you were the “lucky” buyer at $500K..well..too bad for you..you will be paying property taxes of 2% of the VALUE that the broward county appraisers office says it it is worth…that can be a 10K difference!!!
“If you purchase a property in a foreclosure or short sale, your actual purchase price may not reflect the just (market) value used for determining your taxes. Instead, Florida law requires our office to use the reasonable market price of a sale of similar homes in your neighborhood (or a similar area) sold under normal financial conditions to determine the assessment. Regardless of your 2008 purchase price, assessments in Florida are done a year in arrears. This means your 2008 assessment is based on the sales in your neighborhood (excluding foreclosures, short sales and non-arm’s length transactions) between January 2, 2007 and January 1, 2008″
That is exactly what they told me when I called the property tax appraisors office. The man at the office also said. ” If all of the properties fall by 50% we are simply going to raise the millage rates”.
He said that due to the number of new sub-divisions contructed during the boom, we need enough money to cover the costs of this. There were many new police, fire stations, schools, etc..built to accomodate this. Someone has to pay for this now.
Then again, people might start voting. The tax revolt that comes out of this one will make prop 13 look puny.
CivilServiceBubbleBlog anyone?
But think of the children!!!!!
I saw some pretty sweet deals of vehicles for sale in front of the Home Depot in Glendora last night. And I saw a fantastic fireworks show put on by drug dealers in Fontana on the fourth while the surrounding foreclosures sweltered in the heat and were lulled by the dulce sounds of biting flies. While sipping 91 year old brandy from his Beverly Hills grandfather’s private reserve, my millionaire friend in Yorba Linda warned me of the dangers of Obama and his evil cronies. He had just added a $350 box to his $40,000 home stereo system and wanted me to ooh and aah at the clarity of sound. There may not be blood in the streets yet, but it’s getting close!!! Some wild thing slouches towards Bethlehem, waiting to be born.
I think you mean Gomorrah.
Foreclosures to rise whoever wins White House
By JEANNINE AVERSA – 1 day ago
…
Obama supports legislation along these lines by Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., that would help about 400,000 homeowners. People would not have to have good credit to qualify as long as they could show they can afford the new payments.
“If the government can bail out investment banks on Wall Street, we can extend a hand to folks who are struggling on Main Street,” Obama said.
I was so looking forward to voting for a Democrat this year. His stance against affordable housing, lack of understanding of the economics of national healthcare, and his goal of taxing the hell out of the hard working to give more money to gamblers and those that make a living by working the system is making it difficult. I really dont think I can vote for him and will have to abstain.
I would almost agree, and no argument that the Democrats’ housing rescue bills are abysmal…but a cursory examination shows McCain’s tax policy and budgetary priorities represent a different set of economic disasters for the country. “4 more years” of the same White House idiocy would be a real disaster.
But I think of it like the Bush/Gore race: Many people who blew it off because “they are essentially the same” or voted for Ralph Nader wound up really regretting it.
Didn’t you hear about the plans Grampa McBush has for balancing the budget with the ’savings’ from the (entirely deficit-financed) Iraq war…
….. after he’s withdrawn troops from Iraq, that is!
I don’t seem to share your voting dilemma:
Obama : Making plans to bring US soldiers home from Iraq & Afghanistan
McSame: Making plans to keep US soldiers in Iraq & Afghanistan…Iran / Pakistan / Vietnam…the gooks are still “comies” even in 2008!
Cheney-Shrub still advocate pre-emptive worldwide US Democracy expansion in Islamic countries with US of A taxpayers money…sounds like a promising strategy to me.
McSame = Busch Lite
little early to be hitting the Maui Wowie . . .
Still using your “Young Republican” Ann Coulter spices I see:
“Anger & Haterade”
Obama - “I want to bring our soldiers home as soon as possible (who doesn’t?)…. if the situation allows (an undefined clause)”
McSame - “I want to bring our soldiers home as soon as possible… but the situation will not allow us to for 100 years.”
You see, the only difference between them is how the media spins their position. Obama isn’t against invading Iran nor the moral/ideology behind the Iraq war.
Obama isn’t against invading Iran nor the moral/ideology behind the Iraq war.
Never underestimate a gooper’s ability to tell a bald-faced lie.
Doesn’t everybody remember when the messiah said he would nuke pakistan.
Both of these guys are dangerous.
Mike
No WMDs in Saddam’s Iraq?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25546334
I don’t know about y’all, but I’d say yellow cake youraineeum is an awful like a weapon of mass destruction.
Maybe we should have waited for him to use one on a neighbor?
Did you read the whole article? It was under lock and key since 1991.
Under lock and key where?
I think both Democrat and Republican voters have a Hobson’s choice this election cycle.
Robber: “Your money or your life
Jack Benny: (Long silent pause)
Robber: “Well!, which will it be?”
Jack Benny: “I’m thinking, I’m thinking”
“…simply a choice between two undesirable options, known as a Morton’s Fork. Such a choice between two options of nearly equal value is more properly called a dilemma.
On occasion, writers use the term “Hobbesian choice” instead of “Hobson’s choice”, not confusing philosopher Thomas Hobbes for Thomas Hobson, but referring to a specific Hobson’s choice offered by Hobbes. The philosopher’s famous choice is of an armed robber’s “your money or your life”, with the serious claim that the person making the choice is fully free to choose either option.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hobson%27s_choice
Actually, looking at those who lost in the primaries, I think voters will have the best choice possible.
Interesting piece from Dean Baker on the proposed bailout. Seems that the banks will get to choose who gets a deal. Of course they will take the cr*ppiest loans and then off the problem to us, the taxpayers.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/06/cbo_projects_housing_bailout_p/
If the crappiest loans get pushed onto the government, then it’s quite foreseeable that the people who have that loan will get the house for free.
You see, the non-IRS side of the government is in the business of handing out money, not collecting. The collection part is the IRS. So, do we really think the government will foreclose and push people out of their homes, when so much goodwill and many votes can be bought by just letting people stay at a nominal fee, on some kind of sliding scale?
Can you imagine the political blowback if the government starts putting people out of “their” houses in large numbers?
the buck doesn’t stop here:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Things in the U.S. sure are tough. Brother, can you spare a euro? Signs saying “We accept euros” are cropping up in the windows of some Manhattan retailers.
The almighty dollar is mighty no more. It has been declining steadily for six years against other major currencies, undercutting its role as the leading international banking currency.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080706/dollar_doldrums.html?.v=10
‘The almighty dollar is mighty no more’
Yes, you are prone to such statements. Maybe it’s fun for you, but it doesn’t really add to the discussion or bring anything to the table. How about some facts or trading info? I ran a metals and currency blog for years, and there is a lot to think about. But morbid pronouncements don’t do much. I’m guessing you read a lot of those newsletters that have been wrong for 30 years.
Funny thing; they aren’t taking euros in my town. Whatever will I do with these worthless dollars?
Any morbid pronoucements belong to the author of the article. Not a word of that post was my own. Perhaps the MSM is becoming more aware of the truth than some on this blog?
Ha, I’ll put my track record up against anyones. The trick is, figuring out what is true on your own.
Instead of getting all mad all the time, try this;
Paper currencies all go away eventually. The question is timing. And there is short term and long term. Plus currency substitutes may lie dormant for decades (such as gold), costing the holder a bunch.
So IMO, the more relevant question is, what to do and when? And the reasoning behind that decision is the one with value.
I know a lot of people with money, and none of them got it trading paper or holding commodities. All of them are in a business of some sort.
What is the board consensus on the dollar and gold?
Board consensus is that there isn’t one.
A few months ago I opened a new print shop (retail!) to blow out my overstock (that I buy as overstock). I made the decision in about 10 minutes, with absolutely zero planning. Basically walked into a nice hand car wash in a nice town (about 70,000 people). The guy had over 2000 square feet of front office space unused and separate from his main shop. His family had owned the strip mall for decades, and he was paying almost nothing for the space. I asked him if he’d sublet, and he asked what I’m looking to do. I told him, and we worked out a deal: I do his business cards and promotional flyers for free, and pay a portion of utilities to be negotiated (ended up at $300 per month, flat).
I hired 2 older folk that I knew from a church I work with. $10 an hour. They’re old enough to just want a simple job answering phones and taking order forms. They live 1 block away in a tiny mobile home park (maybe 100 trailers) focused on the elderly. Great folk.
A month ago I put up a sign saying “We take silver dollars.” I’ve recently repriced my goods with the fiat dollar price (say, $30 for a poster) including the silver dollar price. I value it at half the price of the US dollar price. $1 silver dollar buys you $30 worth of fiat value.
There’s a coin shop about a mile away. I have their flyers prominently displayed at the checkout counter. In the past 30 days, we’ve already taken in about $200 in face-value silver (or about $3600 at $18 spot). I know some people think the IRS requires that you value your gold and silver at spot, but that recent case in Las Vegas tells me that I might be safe valuing it at the US Mint’s face value.
So I sold about $1500 US fiat worth of material for $200 in face value silver, or $3600 in fiat value. My accountant said it’s a logistical nightmare, but he loves the idea and is willing to dig a bit to see how I can handle the tax portion of it. The way I look at it, I took in $200 in US coins. So I lost $1300 in terms of tax basis, even if I made $2100 in profit. Yes, it’s confusing.
The only glitch I’ve discovered (thanks to my lawyer) is that US currency theoretically is mandated as acceptable for the dollar value, so a smart guy could come in and say “I’ll take the silver price, but I’ll pay you in FRNs.” I’d get screwed and lose a fortune, but I think I can probably just refuse service. Of course if I don’t refuse service and the customer decides to pay with fiat currency at the last minute, I am mandated to accept it. I can’t FORCE them to pay in silver dollars.
So to me, silver has already made me a nice little profit. The IRS sees a loss, I see a gain, so I’m happy. Once the word gets out and becomes the talk of the town, I’m sure I’ll have to have some concerns about how to handle the books, but so far it seems all legitimate.
So I love the silver market right now. As long as the US Silver Eagle says $1 and is a US Mint produced coin, it is worth $1 to me. What I do with it down the road may incur some tax concerns, but I don’t sell silver, ever. If I have to, it will be when the US FRN dollar has plummetted, at which point I don’t mind if I have to pay a huge capital gains tax on it. I’ll be secure.
And if silver falls, it would have to fall 94.4% for me to just break even on the transaction in terms of the face value versus the spot value. Again, not a concern, I can’t see silver falling to $1 per ounce any time soon, if ever.
WIn, win.
Opinions?
I can’t FORCE them to pay in silver dollars.
You can require them to pay ahead of time, no? With a gaurantee of refund if they aren’t satisfied with the product (if that becomes an issue).
Opinions?
Oh, and I love it, especially the part where you pay taxes based on the fiat declared value and take a loss on the sale.
NO ONE values revenue according to the value of the underlying metal (pennies, nickels, etc). I imagine you are also paying sales tax the same way right?
Final thought, if you consistantly take a loss (in net) the IRS might could try to challenge you on the business/hobby thing by arguing that (based on fiat values) you do not have a profit motive. They could conceivably make that argument even if you don’t take a net loss.
“I’m not smart. I try to observe. Millions saw the apple fall but Newton was the one who asked why.”
Bernard Baruch
“Once upon a time my political opponents honored me as possessing the fabulous intellectual and economic power by which I created a worldwide depression all by myself.” - Herbert Hoover
Honestly, I wish you’d ban him and that other fool who is constantly posting inane quotations from dead people. Both of them would turn the most rabid dollar bear bullish and have gold owners flocking to sell all of it.
I wish we could ban one-trick-ponies (idiot savants) that contribute diddily squat to the world, but fortunately there’s no need to, because as we head into a depressionary cycle, futures markets tend to go away of their own accord.
gee, that’s so pithy. What exactly have you contributed other than a load of hot air? So far, the environmentalists haven’t been able to make a car run on it but there seems to be an unlimited supply of the “resource” so hope springs eternal.
I’ve taken hundreds of people into the wilderness and shown them great natural beauty, and influenced most, if not all of them, about preserving the best things on this good Earth.
My most important contribution, by far.
The last eight years have taught me that texas neocons are not to be reasoned with.
Oh, I get it. Today is the day “we” get to snarkily tell others we don’t like their posting talents.
Oh goody.
I am waiting ! haha
Ben,
Can you throw us some fresh meat. Looks like some of us are bored and starting to turn on each other.
neocons???
so that’s what you kids are calling them these days.
when i was your age we just called them b….
ahhh…nevermind.
“Looks like some of us are bored and starting to turn on each other.”
Now that the housing crash is common knowledge, hungry bears are turning to cannibalism.
I am pretty sure that Aladinsane (never figured out if it is Alad insane, or Aladin sane), and watcher and others would gladly not be in metals, but sometimes money is comparative game. While others are losing, their positions are gaining value. Gold is a terrible investment, and it probably it is not even that. But show me where to put money now and I will do it.
“Now that the housing crash is common knowledge, hungry bears are turning to cannibalism.”
Also known as eating your own.
You’re getting pretty tiresome yourself, txchick. About the only thing of value you’ve ever contributed was a 20 pound trout. And that is getting pretty smelly by this point.
Ben,
It just so happens that for the first time in my 20 years as a CFO I have vendors that have stopped accepting US dollar wire transfers. They want their own currency. Most of my machines are made in other countries and I must pay up. In certain cases my dollars are “worth less” as in worth less than a few other currencies.
To try and mitigate these expenses I have funded a machine shop to manufacture various parts but I run into patent issues and a lack of machining talent. The vendors know what parts you need to run their machines.
Interesting, CFO. Thanks for the insight!
Hope you are able to overcome the currency/patent problems. Good luck!
Countrywide workers worried about severance: report
The “Countrywide Change of Control Severance Plan,” posted on the company’s internal website, says BofA has the power to decide whether it wants to pay severance benefits to an employee who turns down a new position, even if it contains significant changes in compensation or job location, the paper said.
“In lieu of terminating Countrywide employees, BofA is opting to extend token offers of employment that are inferior in every respect to the employees’ former positions, without granting these employees the option to be terminated with severance,” the paper cited a Countrywide executive in California, who has retained an employment lawyer, as saying.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080707/countrywide_severance.html?.v=2
“the paper cited a Countrywide executive in California, who has retained an employment lawyer, as saying.”
CA is an ‘at will’ state and businesses can let anyone go at any time without any reason and can also change job descriptions. Farmer’s Ins in BK changed lots of job descriptions when they made their move.
Was at a weekend BBQ and was talking about the Ventura, CA economy. I said “wait until Countrywide lays off 7,500 people”.
The guy next to me said: If my wife gets laid off from her job at Countrywide, just put the bullet in my head gently.
I wish I had kept my mouth shut and just let out a loud fart. It would have been less uncomfortable for everyone!
LOL!!!!!!!!
Make that 2 LOL’s !~!!!
a hot TIP, get out of TIPS:
July 7 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Inflation Protected Securities aren’t living up to their name for bond investors who say they can’t trust the way the U.S. government calculates the rising cost of consumer goods.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aPjqNRudfM.Q&refer=us
“hot TIP”
Barn door is open
Horses have all run away
Hurry, shut the door
The most interesting thing about this item was its source (Bloomberg) and the language, which is starting to sound like that of Russ Winters. When government statistics are widely described as coming from the “Ministry of Truth”, the transformation of the media will have been complete.
Posted on Sun, Jul. 6, 2008
How an odd bipartisan alliance in ’90s led to loan debacle
By Joseph N. DiStefano
Inquirer Staff Writer
The bad-home-loans mess that has slowed the U.S. economy can be traced to a strange 1990s alliance of Democratic social engineers and Republican finance-industry allies.
They agreed on one point: All who wanted a home should be able to buy one. Even if they couldn’t quite afford it.
Good find.
One interesting aspect of this bubble is how the blame (IMO at least) seems to be quite party-agnostic. It seems greed and foolishness have no party affiliation.
The main question to me, and implied by the article is - how much of this bubble was accidental and how much was intentional?
I agree. I’ve said here before that when looking at the disastrous effects of government “leadership” (or lack thereof), about 95% of the damage is fully bi-partisan. Why? Because the legislative actions under consideration have already been bought and paid for through campaign donations, well spread out across both parties.
All the polical hyperventilating only ends up affecting the remaining 5% at most, and usually the end consequences associated with that 5% are the opposite of what allegedly was intended by the earnest partisans. That’s why I can’t get that exercised about it all.
Even if they couldn’t quite afford it ??
Heading back to 63% home ownership rates…What will become of the extra 5% or so of the previously owner occupied homes ??
Revert back to rental rates based income affordability in the area they are located ?? If so, how low can they go ?? Likely well below replacement cost thereby driving land values back to there Ag. levels or less…
Likely well below replacement cost
Why would you want to replace it if the house next door is sitting empty, waiting for you to move in?
The bad-home-loans mess that has slowed the U.S. economy can be traced to a strange 1990s alliance of Democratic social engineers and Republican finance-industry allies.
They agreed on one point: All who wanted a home should be able to buy one. Even if they couldn’t quite afford it.
That is not only false, it is revisionist history. There are plenty of reasons to want to get all the people who can afford homes into them. When subprime affordability products were first rolled out they were administrated in a much more strict manner and there was no rampant abuse of assessments in the picture. The first waves of these loans did far better than expected and had extremely low levels of default. The vast majority who used subprime loans early on paid them off. The only people disagree with this are either liars or anticapitalist.
When securitization and assessment all went bonkers as the nation went into a mania for houses then the bogus loan problem happened. Rewriting history so that it fits some specific politically inspired narrative is wrong and ultimately self defeating.
Report from last week’s vacation in CO,UT,AZ,NV,CA:
Most bubblicious - CO western slope, Vail in particular. Probably due to the oil rigs, but that was the only place that looked like the bubble was still on. I think I counted 8-9 cranes in about 2 miles in Vail.
Most F’ed individuals - Probably Cedar City, UT. Nothing specifically wrong with the town, just the highest concentration of BDU-wearing, diesel-driving, ATV and boat pulling good-ole-boys I’ve seen in one spot. Looked like MEW money to me.
Worst place to ride out the bubble - Anywhere from Vegas to Victorville. The 110 degree heat really gave it “The Stand” atmosphere. That place is just another Katrina waiting to happen if anything takes the power and water down. Most disturbing thing I saw on the trip was a sign leaving Vegas on I15S that had nothing but a picture of an attractive young woman and the text “Out of money? Turn around now and make $500 tonight!”.
Most education site - Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills. I remember when people thought that was glamorous 20 years ago. Now you can buy that crap in pretty much any upscale mall in the country, without having to drive through the hood to get there. Kind of illustrates how far we’ve bubbled as a nation.
Nicest places (to me) - Kolob Reservior near Zion NP, UT, and the beach at Carlsbad, CA. Nothing looked like it was going to get bulldozed anytime soon in either place, even if values drop a lot.
“Want to make $500 the hardway?”
Literally
“just the highest concentration of BDU-wearing, diesel-driving, ATV and boat pulling good-ole-boys I’ve seen in one spot.”
If you want to see the latest in BDU fashion, come during the deer hunt. Between the clothes and the gear, I think actually bagging a deer has become quite a secondary pursuit.
One other observation, I’ve heard people talk smack about Temeculah(?) on this board, but it was looking pretty good compared to the Vegas/Victorville stretch.
Another funny thing about Vegas and young women…are the little 2-door Mercedes convertibles the official car of kept women? You don’t see many of those in Colorado, but they seemed to be everywhere in Vegas and CA, and it was always a young (or wannabe young) woman driving it. Oddly enough, there weren’t many BMWs compared to Colorado.
Former,
That is a great observation.
How much a month? The girl and the car.
Depends on which is the better ride.
Bada- bing!
Boooooooooo, sssssssssssss.
Back in the late 60’s… early 70’s…it always seemed their was a cute girl behind the wheel of a VW Karma Ghia…Hey Click & Clack, am I just a wacko, or did you guys notice the same phenomena?
Yeah Hwy, the girls who were the most popular in the 70’s had long curly brown hair, a mismatched bikini, and driving a beat up car. They loved dogs, smelled like garlic and wore cowboy boots and clothes from the thrift store. Of course cristy brinkley ruined it for all the brunettes, but concert tickets to see the greatful dead only cost twelve bucks so we all had fun.
Best concerts:
jimi
janice
led zepp
I was only 12 that year.
Bob marley-1980-just out of HS.
I am going to see the Lipizzan horses this weekend with mummy. I’m with the band.
Verde,
Bring a picture of yourself in that beat up car from the 70’s & I’ll buy you a beer of choice at this place…promise! I think Ben would have like it here as well.
http://www.carlsbad.com/listings/nightlife/bars_and_breweries/828-mas_fina_cantina/details/
It’s right by the train station…that’s how I’ll be traveling, taking Mr. Cole to the beach…continuing his 1st year boogie board lessons…;-)
I literally didn’t drive a car in the 70’s.
My sister gave me her beat up mazda.But my friend stole the car and got into three crashes, so my mom told me to transfer it out of my name.
Thanks for saving my ass mom.
Thank you george bush. Thank you for the 600.00
I never get presents from powerful men. More please.
HA, Ouro!
I thought I was the only other person in CA going to see the Lipps. With my kid, even!
Good for you.
70’s, long haired brunette, bikini driver of Karman ghia.
I will say thank you! hahaha
Ahh those were the days of Deadheads, doobie bros, just prior, Jimi Hendrix ( was very young), did anyone see
“Almost Famous”… those were the days.
True, the Western Slope is currently a real-estate retard zone (RERV). Lots of overpriced POS shacks from Durango to Grand Junction, all barely budged from their bubble prices. Nothing is moving. I guess we’re just a little slow around here.
er, that would be RERZ
maybe the V was supposed to be there for Vacuum - seems like nothing’s going on.
RERZV
(Bloomberg) — Crude output from Mexico’s Cantarell, the world’s third-largest oil field, is falling at the fastest pace in 12 years as investment limits keep state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos from fully exploiting deposits and finding new ones.
Production at the Gulf of Mexico development dropped 34 percent in May from a year earlier, the biggest decline since October 1995, according to data compiled by the government and Bloomberg. That was when Hurricane Roxanne’s 131 miles-per-hour (114-knot) winds shut down offshore wells for a week.”
Enjoy the price drop in oil while it lasts.
Here’s a good article that explains why we are addicted to oil.
It’s quite possible that without it’s manna from hades, Mexico will degrade into a narco-warlord state of being, which it is well on the path to becoming already.
link?
investment limits keep state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos from fully exploiting deposits and finding new ones.
This is not exactly true - foreign investments are not allowed, but Pemex is fully allowed to exploit and find all they want.
This is a few days old, but I haven’t seen it here yet:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/2248674/US-housing-slump-creating-%27ghost-towns%27.html
Thanks for the link. I drive past areas like this in North County San Diego on my daily commute. I am not claiming that they are completely vacant — just mostly vacant — as evidenced by traffic in and out of these neighborhoods which does not scale with the number of newly or recently built homes. I always find myself wondering who the bagholders are on all these vacant, never-lived-in new homes.
US housing slump creating ‘ghost towns’
By Catherine Elsworth in the Inland Empire
Last Updated: 2:01AM BST 05/07/2008
Welcome to the new “ghost towns” - brand new, immaculately tended communities with not a tumbleweed in sight.
The deserted streets of Edenglen in southern California
JOHN DOOLEY
Financial analysts in California have identified the latest symptom of the devastating housing down-turn plaguing the US - tracts of freshly built, well-appointed homes where no-one apparently wants, or can afford, to live.
Aaron Deer, an analyst with Sandler O’Neill & Partners, toured housing developments in California’s Inland Empire, a formerly booming property market 40 miles east of Los Angeles, for a report on the health of the building industry.
On his visit to developments in Ontario and Corona, which he pointed out are “actually healthier markets” compared to areas further inland, he found “a significant number of fully built homes sitting vacant along with a large number of additional homes still under construction”.
No Hope Now for Mortgages
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-jpm-mortgage-housing-wfc-bush/index/a/17880
Upset homeowner shoots real estate agent in Mich
A man upset about a property transaction fatally shot a real estate agent in the head during a meeting Tuesday morning in the victim’s office, authorities said.
Troy VanderStelt, 34, was pronounced dead at 12:45 p.m. at Mercy Health Partners Hackley Campus in Muskegon, said Muskegon County Prosecutor Tony Tague.
A suspect was arrested a short time after the shooting at a home in nearby Norton Shores. Tague identified him as Robert Arnold Johnson, 73, of Roosevelt Park.
Johnson was scheduled to be arraigned Wednesday in Muskegon County District Court on charges of first-degree premeditated murder and using a firearm during the commission of a felony, the prosecutor said.
A conviction on the murder count carries a mandatory life prison sentence with no possibility of parole.
Tague said Johnson plotted to kill VanderStelt, took a .22-caliber semiautomatic handgun to the real estate agent’s office, got him preoccupied with some paperwork in a conference room, stood next to him, pulled out the gun and shot him once in the temple.
“We believe this was a planned-out execution-style murder of the real estate agent,” the prosecutor said.
Tague told WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids that Johnson believed that VanderStelt took advantage of him in a real estate deal. Johnson bought a house through him in 2005, then recently decided to sell it and went to a different real estate agent. The second agent told Johnson that, because of the slumping housing market, the home was not worth what he had paid for it.
The shooting happened around 8:45 a.m. at Nexes Realty Inc. in Roosevelt Park, a city of about 3,900 people just south of Muskegon.
Police Chief Bill Wiebenga said the suspected gunman was talking with VanderStelt in the conference room when an employee heard a popping sound.
Johnson left the building and drove directly to the Norton Shores home of his former son-in-law, whom he handed the gun. The ex-son-in-law then dialed 911, Tague said.
Police arrested Johnson and took him to the Muskegon County Jail, where he was being held without bond until his arraignment hearing. There was no answer to telephone calls made to his home, seeking comment.
Tague said he did not know whether Johnson had retained a lawyer.
About a dozen people were in the real estate office at the time of the shooting but no one else was injured or threatened by the gunman, Wiebenga said.
The last slaying in Roosevelt Park was in April 1988, when a 90-year-old man and his 87-year-old wife were stabbed to death in their apartment, The Muskegon Chronicle reported on its Web site. The man convicted of murdering them died in prison in 2006.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D91LB27O1.htm
Awesome.
Risk shows up in that formerly riskless profession.
Did the victim have a family? Would it matter to you?
Good point: perhaps the assassin should have made sure that the little realtardlings don’t grow up to become realtards. Now any good exterminator will tell you that it’s more important to eradicate the young than the adults. But there’s at least a chance that the realtardlings will have a chance to grow up to be honest, productive members of society under the loving care of a foster family, instead of the realtard. So I’m inclined to give the realtardlings a chance to show that they won’t follow in the footsteps of the realtard who spawned them.
But I won’t argue with you if you’d prefer to eliminate the realtardlings at the some time as the realtard, just to play it safe.
Awesome.
Great response.
And to watcher, no, it wouldn’t particularly bother me if the UHS had a family. Most people do. It’s nothing particularly special. 6 billion on the planet, that one won’t be missed.
If a Realtor™ dies, somewhere out there an angel gets resurrected.
Nice indictment of an entire profession albeit using the term profession loosely. You sound like a guy who’ll be really mourned also. Even if 90% of RE agents might be as evil as you say, it’s really unconscionably not nice to celebrate somebody getting murdered. And yes there are decent, responsible RE agents too I’m sure of it, just as there are priests who aren’t pedophiles and mechanics who are honest. And no I’m not one.
Realtors having open houses have been assaulted, and thieves touring houses for sale have long been a problem. No form of retailing is ever risk free because of the fraction of the public who exhibit criminal nature, least of all used housing unit sales. Try doing a job that involves nothing but working with people all day and you will get knocked off your high horse.
“He leaves behind a daughter, Ava; a son, Corbin; a stepson, Matthew; and a stepdaughter, Lainey.
Troy VanderStelt, a long-time member of Forest Park Covenant Church who was murdered in his real estate office Tuesday, enthusiastically volunteered with the congregation’s junior high ministry and was loved throughout the community, pastor Russ Carlson says”.
The stupid greedy S.O.B. in this case is the 73-year-old FB who thought his “right to house appreciation in 3 years” was worth more than this man’s life and the sanity of the man’s little children.
Agree.
Thank you, Arwen.
It’s disturbing to see people write such ruthless, sick posts.
There is NOTHING good about people being murdered. Their family did nothing wrong, but will have to live with the loss for the rest of their lives.
A stupid and evil deed. The next thing we’ll read about is a home seller being assassinated by a disgruntled FB.
Many of you long for an existence, where you have to be on your guard 24/7, because everybody is armed to the teeth, not unlike say our g.i.’s in Iraq…
Why’s that?
Why’s that? Because we are not as enlightened as thou.
Don’t be too hard on yourself, you’re all you’ve got.
Ben, isn’t it time to zitz this one?
And what do you contribute to the conversation other than occasionally helping the odd stray dog or human?
I like txchick and alad and I’m terrified of each.
Im more depressed after I read lad’s stuff, but chick is worth rooting for. Go chick!
Ben, which one is curly?
ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwirWWnzJKM
chick and lad are both rooting for.
I say let the comments be free
If everyone here had the same opinion, what would be the point?
I don’t long for that existence, but if you show up at my door be aware I AM armed to the teeth. I am not on guard 24/7 but it will be up to you figure out where the lapses are.
thank goodness (sarcasm) the Supremes decided that all human beings can carry a handgun everywhere they damn well please.
Most are law abiding citizens, but sometimes, just, sometimes, someone can go schizzo…
I think pandoras box has been forever opened.
And I am not talking about the law abiding citizens that won’t go beserk. Shoot,excuse the phrase, it only takes one.
Who are you to judge me and my right to carry/own a gun? The court just affirmed the right to gun ownership. The States can still enforce laws that require training and certain restrictions, i.e. felons.
At one point in my life I agreed that nobody should have the right to own a gun then I discovered competitive target shooting and fell in love with it. It just so happens I feel a little bit safer at home now. All family members have been trained and have respect for firearms.
I live in San Diego. Home invasion leaning criminals beware.
Yes, I watch TV and eat popcorn and relax….preparedness is not evident to the untrained eye.
A lot of IFs in this article from Yahoo! Finance.
On the Path to a Housing Rebound
What could go wrong?
One event has the potential to slow or even derail the recovery: A sharp rise in interest rates. Right now, the first-timers are gorging on 6% loans guaranteed by the FHA. But rates may not stay there.
If they rise to 8% or higher because inflation rebounds, it would take a far bigger drop in prices to make new and existing homes affordable.
http://tiny.cc/SEWu2
Janet Yellen says housing prices to fall “well into 2009″
I thought the Fed wanted to keep housing prices propped up? Either they have changed the plan, or they have dissenters on Board.
Perhaps the dissenters are considering the “affordable housing” aspect, which has been a political mantra for a generation.
Perhaps the Fed has concluded the free market (with a modicum of truthful commentary) could better deliver the affordable housing that decades of social engineering have been unable to deliver thus far.
Not sure if my post from earlier was eaten or if it was just denied, so I’ll give it one more go…
Chicago HBB Meetup!
When: This Thursday, July 10, 2008. 5pm - ???
Where: Relax Lounge, 1450 W Chicago Ave, Chicago, IL
Who: Anyone 21+
What: Cocktails, BEST burgers in Chicago
Why: Kicking off my book editor’s first week waitressing so she can start saving some cashola. She’s learning about bubble mania, so she got herself two more jobs that weren’t “needed.”
Relax is one of my favorite pubs now, plus it doesn’t get too busy.
There’s a VERY convenient bus stop RIGHT OUTSIDE of the pub, and there’s usually quite a bit of parking on Chicago.
Email me at adam.dada@gmail.com if you’re coming or post here.
So far there are about 4-5 people who have RSVPd to me. It’s open ended: come when you want, leave when you want, I’ll be there till about 9pm-ish.
Sounds fun … I’ll try to make it.
Bring cameras and send photos to me.
Hey, san francisco, you really need to share the photos from your Ben Party.
It’s looks as if some idiot accidentally pushed the PPT button, in reverse.
Timber!
They just took an early lunch. Keep the faith — I am sure they will paint a bit of lipstick on the pig before day’s end.
skf liquidity almost gone. I don’t know who’s chasing it up at these prices
Oh, now you tell me. I bought 100 shares using Paper Money LOL
“I am sure they will paint a bit of lipstick on the pig before day’s end”
you called it correctly!!!!!!!!!
Damn were you sure right! Good call.
The market’s up! no wait.. The market’s down! Now it’s up again!
OMG! it’s down!!
Day traders are a kick.. never a dull moment.
that sort of market is exactly what daytraders want. At least the ones who have a clue what they’re doing.
You want i should hop in now and buy 100 SKFs? that will knock it back down to 100 i can almost guarantee it…
and thanks for `splainin to me the advantage of hopping in and out of that instead of just letting it sit there, which is how i would’ve done if left to my own devices… dumbass lib’ral that i am.
Fear not, SKF has been an equal opportunity a$$ kicker on both sides of the aisle.
i imagine brokers are kinda fond of it too..
Indymac trading halted.
Who had IMB in the banking death pool?
Our 45,000 year old furniture arrived last week…
Plastic patio furniture?
Nope, 45,000 year old wood furniture.
What happened to the beauty of nature?? Does it look better in your living room??
You be the judge…
http://www.daviesfurniture.co.nz/index.cfm/Products/Ancient_Swamp_Kauri
Does ANWR look better being belched out by SUVs?
it’s okay if they do it, don’t you understand? they’re nature’s children, lol
ANWR will look better once we drain all the oil out of it. Same with the coasts.
Blano,
As soon as everyone has an oil derrick in their backyard, maybe we can start drilling on the coasts and in ANWAR. Want to volunteer?
Sounds like Kauri. Care to eloborate? I’d *love* to get my hands on some of that. How much did you pay and what were the logistics of getting it, if you don’t mind my asking.
It all comes from the north of the North Island of New Zealand, and theres a number of companies that make all sorts of this, that and whatever out of it.
A small dining room table and chairs will set you back around $10k, and another $3k to get it here.
and you criticize me for buying “baubles.” unreal
I was thinking that you had around 47 fingers, based upon all the rings you’ve told us you’ve bought, over the past few years.
How many gallons of diesel are used to ship it halfway around the world?
Most so-so furniture nowadays comes from Vietnam, which i’m sure requires just as much diesel to deliver, as my furniture did.
A moot point guilt trip, for those of you playing @ home.
Posted late ystdy on the CA link.
Having just driven from Palm Springs to Escondido through Temecula today, I can tell you that in Temecula there are so many commercial sites that are not going to be finished, there are no trucks/worksite trailers etc around many sites. They are just fenced off.
And I also noticed many many REO signs, signs for sale on Horse real estates ,not on the wineries, but the horsey estates seemed to have several homes half built with 4sale signs on them. But I have to say the commercial sites were really a site.
Stopping in a gas station, I noted the front page of the
Riverside County ‘Californian’ newspaper that stated,
“It’s Official, Riverside Co is in a recession”.
The other thing I noted, was that on a gorgeous Sunday in southern California when many folks would be heading to the beach, there was virtually little traffic.
Seriously, not a normal holiday weekend, much less a summer weekend. Traffic was easily 1/3 of what it usually is from the desert, down the 79, then the 15 and back again.
Traffic way down in the Portland (OR) metro area over the weekend. People went out of town–but according to a story in today’s Oregonian, those who went to the beach actually spent their time ON the beach, not shopping in all the tacky stores.
yeah i am liking that part of the “Recession”. I can drive to my fave cove in Laguna Beach on Sunday afternoon nice and easy and even find a place to park. Dramatic difference in number of SUVs clogging up PCH.
Some anecdotes from flyover country: 4th of July parade in Lakewood (Cleveland) Ohio: always well-attended and lots of fun; but as a marcher w/my daughter, the crowd watching us had to be TWICE last year’s size…evening concert and fireworks SRO -park filled completely with people! Parking easier because so many biked or walked there. With gas over 4 bucks, I guess lotsa folks chose to stay home this year than last, even with a 3-day weekend. Made for a great 3-day party all over town. Anyone else out there notice anything similar happening in their town?
(BTW: latest Old House Journal rated Lakewood one of best places to buy an old house. We did and love it!).
Far fewer for-sale signs here than last year (too many to count then); and about half the houses with signs say SOLD. Still many bargains here, so visit Lakewood if you’re in the area.. (P.S.: I am not, nor related to, a realtwhore…)
Got water?
Marquis Dee
The too-big-to-fail doctrine appears to be experiencing some kind of market stress test today.
Big swings today, especially in the currencies. I expected a dollar pump for the g8 meeting and we got it this morning, but it has died out entirely.
Yes, Professor, we seem to be careening right into the intersection of TooBigToFail Street and TooStupidToSucceed Avenue.
Lots of broken red glass and burnt out flares amongst the skid marks.
Dangerous place to be speeding.
I just filled out to 75% long via index calls. Probably waiting for a break of 11,000 Dow to finish out or a reversal up.
Kevin Depew’s Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:
1. Why Nothing Matters Anymore
At some point in the past 72 hours the news has become pure gibberish. Nothing matters anymore… if it ever did… but The Story, the gritty reality, is that the facade of “newsworthiness,” of “market impact,” has crumbled around us in a heap of splintered chaos.
We are staring at the teeth of the buzzsaw this morning, and God help anyone still short the stock market and hoarding doomsday supplies. I have a pair of pliers and a roll of duct tape in my briefcase… always… but those are leisure items in my hands, not implements of despair.
Yes, I see Freddie Mac (FRE) and sister Fannie Mae (FNM) crashing today, but that just proves the point; the worm has turned. Even now, angry stock market rubbernecks are demanding answers: Why has the market not crashed? What is wrong? Was it canceled? These are legitimate questions, of course, but the answers are elusive. Might as well ask a tick farmer to count his herd.
But enough of that. Here is what we do know: The following technical measures of stock market participation and extremes are nearing levels last seen in March (courtesy of Investor’s Intelligence):
NYSE Bullish Percent: Os (Negative) 27.5%
S&P 500 Bullish Percent: Os (Negative) 26.4%
Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent:Os (Negative) 26%
Nasdaq-100 Bullish Percent: Os (Negative) 34%
Russell 2000 Bullish Percent: Os (Negative) 32.6%
NYSE High-Low Index: Os (Negative) 11.5%
Nasdaq High-Low: Os (Negative) 6.8%
The two most important indicators of that lot, for now, are the High-Low Indexes. These simply measure the ratio of new 52-week highs to the sum total of new highs and new lows, smoothed, the 10-day moving average plotted on a point and figure chart. They reversed up in late March and had a nice run until around the middle of May when they reversed down, leaving the bullish percent indicators hanging there, twisting in the wind.
Essentially, the High-Low Indexes are the early warning devices of mean reverting rallies. They haven’t reversed up yet, but they will…
So you’re expecting to see a market rally that will last until around August or so?
maybe into the middle of september
http://syracuse.craigslist.org/apa/744476626.html
$475 / 1br - BRAND NEW EFFICIENCY APT. LOCATED IN PRIVATE HOME! (Syracuse, NY: FAYETTEVILLE)
Landlord is private homeowner- not a professional landlord nor realtor/etc. A very brief summary of who you are, what you do, etc. is most appreciated! Pls reply w/ your phone contact info :o)
I believe the face symbol at the end says it all.
Press Release
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20080707a.htm
memorandum of understanding??????
memorandum of collusion more like it.
Bloomberg says the sudden stock market reveral is about Fannie and Freddie.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asb4r81Ls6kE&refer=home
see above
one of the best financial types I read just covered his bank shorts
Rumor has it that Blackwater Security was going to have a “private no-bid contract for the new Starmucks Kentucky Fried Chicken Pizza Hut outlets opening in the “green zone” Fall of 2008. I wonder if this changes things a bit?
“…Private security contractors working in Iraq would no longer receive immunity from prosecution there.”
All that “blood & treasure” and they want a pre-nuptial:
Iraqi leader favors short-term pact with U.S.:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/07/iraq.security/index.html
Blackwater USA - Press
Jan 10, 2006 … Blackwater USA, the world’s premier security, peace and stability operations firm recently unveiled its plans to create a new subsidiary; …
http://www.blackwaterusa.com/press/airship.asp
Housing shares drop after Fed official’s comment
Housing stocks plunged Monday after a media report said a Federal Reserve official expects home prices and construction spending to continue to fall well into 2009.
Thomson Financial reported Monday that San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said that the glut of homes on the market will continue to weigh on prices and curb construction activity. Yellen was speaking to the University of California San Diego Economics Roundtable, according to the report.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080707/sector_snap_homebuilders.html?.v=1
Cramer: ‘Bailout’ Isn’t a Dirty Word
Jim Cramer says don’t believe the hype — bailouts are good.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/cramermarketupdates/10424869.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#10424869
watch the video, if you can stomach it!
Mexican bonds fall on inflation fears; stocks down
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idLTAN0741921920080707?rpc=44&sp=true
Britain’s Brown tells families to stop wasting food to help calm price rises.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080707/britain_food.html
What an ass! He sounds just like my mother telling me, when I was a kid, to eat all my lima beans because kids in China were starving.
Sounds like you’re still bitter about havin’ to eat those limas.
Yeah, see, if you hadn’t eaten all those beans China would have fewer people and fewer problems.
Or something like that.
The best way to reduce food prices in Britain is for “Golden Brown” to warn everyone hes going to sell the British strategic food reserve.
Commodity prices falling
http://www.redstate.com/stories/economy/commodity_prices_are_falling_sharply
Yeah, I saw that sharp move in coal too.
Coal is heavily used in steel production. India banning steel exports had to be the “bell” at the top of the commodity bubble.
hopefully a nice “correction” will run off the current crop of peak oil and 2K gold crazies.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!
tin foil on/
“correction”= buying opportunity.
oversold equity sell-off with margin selling into leveraged commodities.
tin foil off/
garden coming in fantastic!
Kass
Kass: Summer of Uncertainty
Doug Kass
This blog post appeared on RealMoney Silver on July 7 at 7:35 a.m. EDT.
One would think that a tradable bottom is close at hand based on the absence of stress in many of the classic credit market indicators, an inflating negativity bubble (oscillators are moving into deep oversolds, the five-week moving average of advancing stocks is at the lowest level since 2002, Lowry’s selling/buying pressure is at an extreme, Investors Intelligence’s market letter bears at 44.8% is at the highest reading in 12 years, AAII bears are double bulls similar to prior trading lows, Ed Hyman’s ISI hedge fund survey reveals a lowly 45% net long exposure, expanding put/call ratios, etc.), the general lowering of profit expectations from even the most bullish cabal, and the speed and magnitude of the recent decline. Thin-reed indicators out of the media also signal the possibility of a rally (e.g., Barron’s bear cover this weekend and the somber preoccupation with a 20% DJIA drop as a tipping off point to a bear market is the polar opposite of CNBC’s DJIA 14,000 celebrations).
Many stocks are cheap.
It is also clear, however, that the road back in stock prices will be choppy and uncertain: There has simply been too much damage done to consumers, equity holders and the financial system. By now, most of the bullish (perma or otherwise) strategists have been discredited, and bottom fishers have been unrewarded.
Equities have broken through the S&P 500 1,275 level, which I previously thought to be the approximate downside risk for stocks over the next 12 months. Perhaps it should not have been that surprising — in a sense, the swiftness of the recent market slide is the mirror-image of the spring 2007 advance.
There seems to be near unanimity that the price of oil has a stranglehold on stock prices, and, at this point, even a $10 to $25 dollar drop will produce a price level that will likely linger as a tax on consumers, a drag on personal consumption expenditures and is almost certain to plague corporate profit margins for some time to come. A period of investor apathy/disinterest seems to be a likely backdrop and will serve as a lingering drag, discouraging both individual equity accumulation — mutual fund cash flows will moderate even further — as well as higher institutional allocations into asset classes that correlate closely to equities.
Hedge funds (which, as I previously mentioned, are conservatively positioned today) are likely to remain risk-averse; the asset class will contract in size as many of the smaller members of that community fold and some medium-sized hedge funds lose critical mass (and are redeemed). Importantly, growth in the fund of funds industry (i.e., the straw that stirs the drink of hedge funds) will likely decelerate (and could even decline) as the extra layer of fees is questioned by some investors in a substandard return environment.
If corporate profits are the lifeblood of equity prices, I suspect the message of the recent bear market is that a relatively extended period of depressed profits into 2010-2011 will restrict the upside regardless of how inexpensive stocks appear relative to short-term and long-term interest rates.
From my perch, the likelihood of a rigorous rebound in stocks has now been reduced, and investment performance will be importantly differentiated by specific industry selection rather than by judging the market’s general health in making cash/invested position decisions. On that score, I suspect last week’s weakness in industrial materials, selected energy (e.g., coal) and dot-corn (agricultural) is a first shot across the bow to developing sector underperformance, while previously depressed sectors (e.g., financials, retail) could be candidates for a rebound.
All this said, the markets, for now, are, to some degree, in the hands of risk managers (not portfolio managers) and trigger-happy and (some) panicky/desperate hedge funds that are fighting for their lives, so there is no telling what will happen.
Unpredictability, volatility and emotion seem likely to rule the day over the summer of 2008, but, as the wiseman once said, this too shall pass.
Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver, a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass’ daily trading diary, please click here.
“It was the first time that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has explicitly and publicly called for a withdrawal timetable — an idea opposed by President Bush.”
I guess the democratically elected Iraqi president hasn’t heard about Cheney-Shrub motto: “We’re the “Deciders”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080707/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq
At $145.00+ per barrel…someone has Euro signs in their Iraqi eyes.
Did this sort of behavior emerge in Germany & Japan after the end of the war?
Retitle:
“We die”…”they play”… or…”America exports Democracy & Detroit muscle cars to Islamic nations”
…gasoline in Saudi Arabia …45 cents per gallon
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/07/07/pleitgen.iraq.fix.my.ride.cnn
Crisis wipes $1 trillion from financial stocks
Monday July 7, 4:57 pm ET
NEW YORK — U.S. financial companies have lost more than $1 trillion in value this year, and yet another decline on Monday shows concerns aren’t going away soon.
The drop in names like Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch caused the financial section of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to lose almost $150 billion in value on Monday, according to the rating agency. That means S&P 500’s 85 financial components have lost some $1.3 trillion since the sector reached a high last October.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080707/financial_losses.html?.v=3
Speculation, Futures Prices, and the U.S. Real Price of Crude Oil
LONNIE K. STEVANS
Frank G. Zarb School of Business
DAVID N. SESSIONS
Hofstra University - Department of Accounting, Taxation and Legal Studies in Business
July 2, 2008
Abstract:
In this study, we examine the relationship between the U.S. real price of oil and factors that affect its movement over time: futures prices, the value of the dollar, exploration, demand, and supply. All of these variables are treated as jointly endogenous and a reduced form vector error correction model, testing for cointegration amongst the variables, is estimated. We find that for model specifications with short-term futures contracts, supply does indeed dominate price movements in the crude oil market. However, for specifications including longer-term contracts that are inherently more speculative, the real price of oil appears to be determined predominantly by the futures price. Moreover, there is empirical evidence of hoarding in the crude oil market: both oil stocks/inventories and futures prices are found to be positively cointegrated/correlated with each other. From a policy perspective, the results of this analysis indicate that if regulators really wanted to limit speculation in the oil market, it should keep the shorter-term futures contracts and eliminate the more speculative six months futures contracts.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1154686
“hoarding” “speculative futures” “Leveraged into commodities”
this is what makes the commodity crash even more powerful in a multi-day equity sell-off within a frozen bi-polar bond market moving around currency pegging and activist intervention of global fiat regimes….
nothing to see here, move along. Typical days in the new century.
Bad day for the financial Mac Daddies…
3,800 jobs gone @ IndyMac
Freddie Mac shares dropped 18%
Fannie & Freddie (tweedledee & tweedledumb) are in a bit of a money scramble…
Brother, can you spare 750 Billion Dimes?
IS this momment in time not what ALL the savers have been wating for?
You got it all coming down in price now. Only good money on the table is the commodity longs, who are now panicking to cover leveraged bets gone bad. Forced selling into a secular bull market in commodities, will exacerbate the ever arriving waves of pain.
Think about it, oversold conditions, multiple bank failures coming up very quickly, massive losses across the board…nobody is immune.
I read something today about a “tear drop” bottom…..multi day sell-off similiar to last August taking the S&P down to 1150′ish?
Even the average trader, like myself, who has purchased significant holdings on the big meltdowns are not buying…we want more downside pressure…….blood and tears…show me some meltdown, and I’ll show you some money.
NYTimes had an article on Fannie Mae stock crash
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/08/business/08fannie.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
A lot of people had these stocks. People like Bob Brinker used to plug them. In fact I think they’re still in his model portfolios.