Yep, Looks like a good many ‘captains’ of finance are nuts.
Mental health is a growing concern as the credit crunch adds to stress in the City of London, the U.K. capital’s financial district. The number of men in the City who sought help for depression and stress rose 47 percent from a year earlier in the past three months, according to British United Provident Association Ltd., the U.K.’s largest private health insurer.
Busy Summer
About 40,000 people in the U.K. financial industry will lose their jobs during the next three years, according to Experian Group Ltd, with London bearing the brunt.
About 40,000 people in the U.K. financial industry will lose their jobs during the next three years, according to Experian Group Ltd, with London bearing the brunt.
What about CEOs? Any word on trimming compensation packages for the top eschelon always seems to get sidestepped.
RE: Mental health boutiques for all those stressed bankers…
Boo-hoo, cry me a river. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch
I remember all the arrogant pricks tellin’ me how sorry they were that there was “no appraisal work”, when they where shovelin’ it all to the form fillers and number hitter bucket shops.
A buddy of mine who was a stockbroker [before finding honest work] told me how some of those highly stressed executives sought relief. From their 5th-floor offices they’d heat quarters practically white-hot with cigarette lighters, then toss them to the homeless on the sidewalk below. The winos would scramble to grab their windfall, then howl when they burned their fingers, producing great guffaws of laughter from the watching suits.
What those financial sharks have been doing to their “clients” on Main Street America isn’t that much different.
Did you watch or read “American Psycho” - totally about it. But he knived the homeless instead. Christian Bale was amazing in that movie.
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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2008-07-11 15:29:05
Didn’t, but will. Thanks for the recommendation.
England may have a class system, but at least the upper classes feel a sense of obligation to the less fortunate and don’t sneer at them like our Wall Street overlords do.
Too bad they didn’t have the S&P 500 data for the high PE ratio based on last year’s earnings and low PE ratio for next years earnings in the WSJ today.
Considering how much he has blathered about a draft in the past, yeah he’s a turd alright. He and his buddies love calling for sacrifice from the balconies/windows of their urban redoubts.
He called for a draft not because he seriously wanted one, but because he thought it would keep the United States from going into War unless there was overwhelming support from the people.
Even though I’m extremely pro-business and fiscally conservative, I have a soft-spot for a sincere, honest Liberal who’s committed to social justice
Charlie Rangel, sadly, isn’t one of them. He’s been a vocal supporter of confiscating more of my money to help specu-vestors and to keep house prices high, while renting 4 rent-stabilized apartments at bargain rates, including one he uses for his campaign office.
According to the Times article, he’s doing this “despite state and city regulations that require rent-stabilized apartments to be used as a primary residence.
I’ve already written to my local congresswoman asking her to call for a censure. (She won’t, but it’s always amusing to see what keyword her auto-form-letter computer finds and what inappropriate response I get.)
I’m with you, Reuven. I can respect an honest leftie who has a genuine concern for social justice and looking out for the downtrodden in this country. However, most liberals are hypocrites to their core [think Ted Kennedy putting his kids in exclusive private schools while treating his constituents to the joys of forced busing]. Most are also morally bankrupt, like Rangel, the extortionist “Jes’ Me” Jackson, and the truly ghastly Chuckie Schumer. Or the vapid political dillitante Barak Obama.
His stated reason for supporting a draft is that the knowledge you (or your children) could be called to serve would give some of the people (with no skin in the game) currently supporting our current foreign policy misadventures pause. I don’t think he actually wants a draft, so much as wants people to recognize the risks that military servicemembers/families are currently facing.
I’ve never served my country, because a person who loves freedom knows that freedom comes from serving yourself.
My country hasn’t served me in my 34 years. My country has taken my freedoms. My country has stolen from me. My country has boxed me in, slowed me down, cut off my hands and told me what I can put in my body or do in my home.
Serve my country? With a subpoena, maybe. Or a warrant for its arrest. No thanks.
Comment by Bad Dada
2008-07-11 07:55:53
Testify. The US was a beacon for liberty and human rights. That is being dismantled rather quickly, with the financial fraud, aggresive invasions of foriegn countries, spying at your homes, practising torture, etc. This most resent war on homeowners, proves the point, we are expecting the same gubmint that allowed this mess, to formulate a battle plan to win the war foreclosures.
To the Dadas : Go live in Iraq then. I don’t disagree that an erosion of original American ideals and principles of law is occurring that needs to be reversed, but the practice of active violations of human rights is nowhere near proportional to the sensational outcry you make. Instead of being chicken little, work in a reasoned controlled manner to restore what you believe is being decimated.
Comment by Mobin_kali
2008-07-11 11:50:57
Maybe South America would be better for them. You would see your rights dwindle to zero. It seems no matter how much liberty or freedom we have, nobody is happy with it. Everyone has a different view point of liberty and freedom, which at one time meant the same thing. I want the freedom to own a handgun, you want to take that freedom away. You see how this works yet? You want the freedom to burn the American flag, I want to take that away. Are we getting somewhere?
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2008-07-11 12:30:46
I did my time in military immediately after graduating from High School. I can tell you the old sterotype that the military instills discipline and respect has been defunct for years in all the services, with the possible exception of the Marines. The one truly worthwhile experience is the comraderie you can develop [in the actual combat units, not the ash-and-trash support units that are disporportionately filled with the lowest sort of otherwise-unemployable scum].
In today’s military, young people will see a “leadership” comprised almost solely of self-serving careerists and ticket-punchers, most of whom couldn’t lead ants to a picnic. The true “leaders of men” and warriors get disillusioned and tend to leave after just a few years. The NCO corps is dominated by “lifers” who would probably be pizza deliverymen on the outside, few of whom inspire any confidence or respect from the troops. Far too many of the young people who join see the military as a job corps with rifles, and have little real attachment to it. The feminization of the military has been an unmitigated disaster in terms of unit cohestion and military discipline and effectiveness.
The Marines alone still retain a residual sense of discipline, standards, and espirit de corps, and have far fewer charlatans in leadership positions than their sister services. The Special Operations Forces are also a great place for tough, dedicated, intelligent warriors capable of initiative and independent thought. Otherwise, political correctness and social engineering schemes have turned our once-formidable military into a friend for the friendless, a home for the homeless, and a garden for the vegetables that make it a career.
Oh, come on - Rangel is full of it. Does anyone here REALLY think that the children of the kleptocrats would be sent to some distant battlefield to die? Of course not! They would find some way to avoid the draft or be sent to some meaningless post safe from any harm while no doubt receiving rewards for their “courage.”
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Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-11 17:09:19
Draft? My dad, who served in the Pacific in World War II was against the draft when I was a teen in the 1970s, and continued to oppose the draft. See, he was blind as the result of WWII.
I remember when I was a kid I participated in a “cowboys and indians” toy gun battle at my friend’s house. I think a lot of people volunteer to join the military (my father did) because they had no relatives come back disabled. When my dad came back disabled, his views changed. War is hell. He talked very little about it. In fact I asked him once if he ever killed anyone in the war. His response was “never ask me that question again.” That was it and he never answered my question.
Sometimes I come across people on boards like this who have served and they insult me without knowing about my father and his views. Disability is not fun, especially when it happens when you are in your 20s, like it happened to my father!
My father was no economic liberal though, and a Reagan Republican. My father passed away in 2000. I had no better friend.
I think folks will buy gas up to about $10.00 a gallon, then it’s down hill from there. I do think that gas prices will drop for a while then head back up though. Lots of folk are really cutting back on their purchases here. Translates to a couple points drop in consumption I’m sure.
You must live amongst sensible folks then, because around here the traffic hasn’t eased one bit. Lots of wasteful driving too - racing between stop lights and speed bumps. Well, at least they don’t bother with the stop signs - I guess that helps?!?!?
The poor driving habits do allow this casual observer a peek into the mounting desparation amongst the hamsters.
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Comment by mgnyc99
2008-07-11 05:16:00
traffic in the greater ny area is till pretty damn bad
but i do so alot more 2 and 3 passengers in cars
but you still see the 21 year old driving a suburban
by himself with apparently no real destination
went to Jfk airport last night and it took me 30 mins to exit the British Airways terminal and get onto the van wyck exprwy (any non-nyers who watch Seinfeld can remember Elaine trying to beat the Van wyck-not many do)
Comment by Jwhite
2008-07-11 05:16:07
Heheh, I think these folks would LOVE to be wasting gas (so many around here do with 75mph speeds and humungous 4x’s on narrow roads). I think it’s more a function of low income. BillyBob only earns about 20k a year - divide that among his truck payment, boat payment, ATV payment, hunting club dues, sporting licenses, credit cards, insurance, gas for all, etc - It’s getting pretty tight for him (yes, many live on the family patch for free though)…
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-11 05:22:08
I was reading about the Van Wyck this past weekend. A book called “Naked Airport” - gets into the development of Idlewild/J.F.K.
The scary part was they knew the roadways weren’t up to task on the day they opened it. The airport initially had palatial gardens too - they lasted about year before becoming a parking lot.
I’ve been riding my bike to work more, thank God I never was interested in living out of town. Anyway it’s not like I’m saving a lot of money, but it’s nice to just leave the thing in the garage and have to fill it every 2 weeks instead of every one week.
Lotta amateur cyclists out there now though. There ought to be a license test for riding in traffic because most these turkeys don’t know how.
Comment by milkcrate
2008-07-11 09:54:13
This many not be a revalation, but I have been seeing more motorists stranded on the side of the road. Out of gas. Pouring the liquid into their trucks/SUVs with EPA-approved plastic tanks designed for… lawnmowers.
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-07-11 12:10:24
Is there an EPA-approved gas can for automobiles?? I don’t know if I’ve seen one lately.
$10 a gallon? I’d like to think I make a decent wage, but if it gets to $6 a gallon then I’m taking the bus. There is no way I could make my commute (25-30 miles one way) on $10 a gallon. I’d be in my boss’s office begging to work from home or at the very least go to a 4 day work week. Heck I’m close to doing that now.
I think if/when gas reaches $5 a gallon you will start to see drastic changes.
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Comment by santacruzsux
2008-07-11 07:30:17
$10/gal may be high, but as long as it is available I believe it will be consumed but not necessarily by Americans. It’s a great big world out there with lots of money for consumption. Let’s talk further if/when we get to price increases caused by shortage of supply. That’s when the fireworks really begin.
Comment by peter a
2008-07-11 08:01:00
I’d be in my boss’s office begging to work from home or at the very least go to a 4 day work week
For years we worked 4/10 week. Was able to spend more time with the family .I think the country should mandate it a automatic 20% reduction in gas use.
Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-07-11 09:42:09
The US economy will be totally trashed before gas gets to $10.00/gallon.
At 10 bucks a gallon, it will make a lot more sense for people to quit work and stay home, if they are only making minimum wage or a little better. Which will be just as well, because businesses will be laying off people right and left anyway.
The gas-saving measures pushed by some on this blog won’t work for me, or a lot of other people…….I’m “on call” 24/7/365, public transportation doesn’t work for me, even if we had it around here. A motorcycle might work (if I had a death wish) but a bike won’t……..ever tried pedaling a bike any distance against a 30mph wind in 100 degree weather? About all I can do is rent a place closer to work (which I did in March).
There are some cheerleaders for an economic Chernobyl on this blog, the rationale being “when it is over, we will pick up the pieces, and be better for it” This only works if the PTB are smart enough to learn the lessons, and do what needs to be done, instead of covering the ass of their buddies/campaign contributors.
I personally think that a total economic collapse of this country will lead to a mountain of unintended consequences, worldwide.
Someone who survived the Depression (I can’t remember where I read it) said, “I don’t feel like I am a better person for surviving the Depression. All the Depression did was teach people basic survival instincts at an early age”.
Socrates11: $10 a gallon? I’d like to think I make a decent wage, but if it gets to $6 a gallon then I’m taking the bus. There is no way I could make my commute (25-30 miles one way) on $10 a gallon.
Where I’m located, the cost of driving (leaving out the cost of owning a car, if you live in the burbs and need one just to get groceries) 25-30 miles in a Ford Taurus - assuming non-toll roads - is 1/2 the cost of taking the bus. If gasoline prices go up, bus fares will go up in tandem.
Comment by creamofthecrap
2008-07-11 19:31:41
Likely not - increased ridership should cut cost per passenger.
Will there be prayer vigils against the demon distillate when it reaches $6.66?
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Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-07-11 07:35:17
Lord, I hope so.
I love a good anti-Satan protest.
And then I can dig out all my old Slayer records for “balance.”
Comment by mikey
2008-07-11 07:35:28
Will there be prayer vigils against the demon distillate when it reaches $6.66
Forget prayer vigils, before long, these so called “Christian’s”, will be practicing the Sacrifice Virgins Before the Altar of the Pump to get their fair share of gas rations
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 07:40:38
If you think about it…
Oil really is “Manna from Hades”
Comment by desertdweller
2008-07-11 11:23:12
Christians are already praying at a pump. News at 6.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Bush administration is preparing a plan in case the unthinkable happens: What if mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were to fail, thus requiring a massive taxpayer bailout to keep mortgage lending from completely collapsing?
Not to worry, though. “The government doesn’t expect the entities to fail and no rescue plan is imminent,” the Journal reported, citing “people” who seem to know a lot.
Is there any surer sign of an impending disaster than a reassurance from the White House that it doesn’t expect it to happen?
On Minyanville, it is thought that “the US government will not explicitly guarantee the debt of Fannie and Freddie but rather, will either inject capital (super senior preferred stock subordinated debt a la a Continental Illinois style bailout) or provide a “make whole” guaranty on the assets of both companies (a la a FDIC/RTC style failing bank resolution). The choice of the former implies a “going concern” for the GSEs while the latter suggests an orderly winddown . . . and either choice implies that the common stock of both companies is worthless.
There is more analysis but I do not have time to retype it.
I’ll tell you. I had to ban one of their writers from posting here because of the deranged attacks on openly female posters. Mostly against you, BTW. But always on women.
Any step the gov’t takes to prop up the GSE’s is a bailout, it won’t matter what they call it or how they present it. Either way, the dollar is toast.
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Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-07-11 07:03:45
GSE or GSE shareholders? There is a big difference.
Comment by auger-inn
2008-07-11 07:39:33
I think we have already witnessed a little taste of what is going to happen to shareholders, who cares about them?
If the GSE’s are publically backstopped in any manner, the gig is up for the dollar. What happens to the shares is irrelevant with regard to dollar issues. They may go back up for all I know.
The PTB is going to try and thread the needle with how they present any backstopping. I personally don’t think they will be successful in keeping that dollar neutral. Just my opinion.
Comment by tresho
2008-07-11 15:01:15
Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae are both part of the S&P 500, so those who have interest in an S&P500 index fund are also shareholders. Glad I got out last year.
When folks, including me, suggested that the Government would spend more $$$ bailing out failed specu-vestors and housefloppers than it spent in the Iraq war, nobody believed it.
Now it looks very likely.
The problem with these stocks is they were a significant part of many broad-market index funds. The “government backing” made them seem like a safe bet.
US Credit Card debt alone exceeds 1 Trillion! It’s astounding that during a war–no matter what your opinion on it–people responded by spending more money they don’t have on Chinese crap. They may stick a Chinese made “I support my Troops” yellow ribbon on their foreign SUV, but how many have donated to the USO?
RE: The problem with these stocks is they were a significant part of many broad-market index funds. The “government backing” made them seem like a safe bet.
For a number of years I was regular to an investor’s website forum called “Raging Bull”.
While my focus was primarily on Harley-Davidson and XOM, occasionally, I would drift over to the Fannie Mae
commentary section and fire a few salvo’s about what
a corrupt mess the mortgage biz was, and how FNMA was gonna get their azz kicked because of their aloofness from the corruption at the bottom.
Man, I sure wish I had access to the posts attacking me.
On former long tenured auditor, said the company’s financial conditions were “absolutely sterling”; as demonstrated by the massive stock holding by public employee pension funds, et., el.; and there was complete and absolute due diligence in the oversight of portfolio quality, and that I was nothing more than a rabble rousing bum with no understanding of the internal operations of the company.
Well gee ,golly,whizz..who woulda’ thought this would happen to these guys…Raines escaped out the back exit in 2004 with his 100k/month retirement…shortly after they found everyone was juicing he numbers and loans. Failing to file their numbers for another few years, while every Mtg broker was pushing off their packages of dead fish to them…who would have thought??
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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 06:10:52
I worked for a firm once, and we did physical foreign exchange trading, and had a Black-American trader, who knew a little more than nothing, but how we basked in the spirits of all inclusiveness…
Until they had to fire him for gross incompetence.
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-11 06:25:20
Uhhh, how is the race card relevant here?
Don’t forget that plenty of white Americans who are grossly incompetent get jobs all the time. It’s called nepotism. Ask Dubya.
(Subscription may be required. I can’t tell if others can see this link or not…)
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 07:11:35
“Uhhh, how is the race card relevant here?”
I knew he was incompetent from day one. He told me “that 1% of a 100 was a Dollar, and it didn’t mater how many hundreds it was, if it was 400, it was still one Dollar”
Imagine a black Dan Quayle trying to talk financial matters?
He somehow lasted another 6 months, and had he have been a white guy, he would have been shown the door, but having a black foreign-exchange trader is as sexy as having a black chief of police, in our world not so much based upon merit, as looks.
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-11 07:29:16
“had he have been a white guy, he would have been shown the door…”
Maybe. But with all due respect, your generalizations suck.
I’ve met plenty of whites who got ahead in life because of nepotism who should have never gotten in the door to begin with.
Comment by somedude
2008-07-11 09:38:32
I work for a huge company full of incompetent people (of all colors) who somehow still have jobs.
Aladinsane is just trying to find an acceptable rationale for his racism.
Comment by ahansen
2008-07-11 09:55:47
“and had a Black-American trader”
Whoaaaa….
You just blew your (ample) credibility with me. That was soooo an unnecessary comment.
Maybe he was someone’s brother-in-law.
Comment by saywhat?
2008-07-11 10:26:32
RE: Black American trader remarks
I agree = credibility totally shot on that one. Whic is a shame. Incompetence is color blind, sir.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 10:54:13
We’ve been all trained to look for anything that vaguely smells of racism, and if there is the faintest odor of it, we must condemn first and ask the real questions later (probably never), as per what we’ve become, as a society.
Comment by CrackerJim
2008-07-11 11:42:51
“We’ve been all trained to look for anything that vaguely smells of racism, and if there is the faintest odor of it, we must condemn first and ask the real questions later (probably never), as per what we’ve become, as a society.”
I call this type of response as the power of mind over matter. I first applied thgis description to my wife (now ex-wife).
For some people:
When the mind is made up, facts no longer matter.
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-11 11:45:56
i agree with you 100% on that one. next time you tell a story about a white person make sure you refer to him/her as a white-american and lets see how many people jump on you.
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2008-07-11 12:44:31
Don’t forget that plenty of white Americans who are grossly incompetent get jobs all the time. It’s called nepotism. Ask Dubya.
I have to say, I liked Dave Chappell’s “President Black Bush” character better than the dimwitted original. [Warning: Chappell uses the N-word a lot.]
People seem to miss that point. It’s not a $5T problem, but it could be a $500B problem.
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Comment by realestateskeptic
2008-07-11 11:49:21
Yes the stock can go to zero, but most of the loans they hold are prime, 20% down, fixed rate deals. They may lose some value, but will hold up as well as 99.99% of the portfolio’s out there. You have to separate out people not wanting to own the stock with the rest of the issue(s).
I’d like to see the marginal rate for the top 1% raised to 90%. That’s the tax rate we had in the fifties and the country was very prosperous, with a growth rate that exceeded today’s rates.
A lot of the trouble this country faces is due to a few people who have way too much money - it destabilizes our economy.
Yes, but you do realize that back in the day when marginal rates were that high, there were a huge number of (legal) tax loopholes and nobody really paid that amount. This was pre-AMT.
So it’s not quite honest to say that the marginal rates used to be higher. There were in theory, but not in practice.
What destabilizes our democracy is the fact that the MAJORITY of Americans pay little or now taxes. The bottom 50% of taxpayers only contribute 3%.
Comment by texas rules
2008-07-11 10:47:18
Reuven, the reason the bottom 50% only contribute 3% in taxes is due to the fact that as of 2001, the bottom 80% in this country owned only 16% of all privately held wealth. The top 1% owned 40%. Lord only knows how much wider that gap has gotten in the last 7 years.
The inequality in wealth distribution in this supposed democracy is flat out immoral.
Comment by sartre
2008-07-11 13:12:28
haha, keep arguing about taxes, it is quite amusing. The greenback devalued by 40% over the last 5 years. how’s that for f’ing tax?
I don’t disagree! That’s why the minority of my savings is in US Equities!
There’s another tax, too: artificially low interest rates. Another way to force savers to subsidize houseflippers
Comment by sartre
2008-07-11 14:36:12
yeah, lets start a couple of more wars and give a couple of trillion more in tax breaks, bail out a few more banks, lets just put the dollar out of its misery.
The Bubble Bust is rattling the “In the House we Trust” mentality Big Time
Milwaukee-based MGIC is the country’s largest insurer of mortgages. People who put down less than 20% of a home’s selling price when they buy it often must get mortgage insurance, which covers some of the lender’s costs if foreclosure occurs. Home foreclosure filings were 53% higher in June when compared with the same time last year
During the days of the Soviet Union it was very important to be able to decode the statements in the Soviet press in order to know what was going on.
The joke was that a Soviet leader could survive bullets, cancer, coups and flood, but if the press reported that they had the sniffles it meant that they were already dead and the power elite was locked in a death struggle to see who would replace them.
These days those same skills are needed with our own press. When the press reports that there are no plans to rescue a financial firm it means that the plans are already in place and they’re just waiting for the right time to announce them.
When the press reports that there are no plans to rescue a financial firm it means that the plans are already in place and they’re just waiting for the right time to announce them. It is FRIDAY , after all!
I thought that yesterday the White House was saying they didn’t “expect” the GSEs to fail? Barry Ritzholtz humorously pointed out that Bush expecting things not to happen is nearly a perfect contrary indicator.
WASHINGTON — Alarmed by the growing financial stress at the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, senior Bush administration officials are considering a plan to have the government take over one or both of the companies and place them in a conservatorship if their problems worsen, people briefed about the plan said on Thursday.
Under a conservatorship, the shares of Fannie and Freddie would be worth little or nothing, and any losses on mortgages they own or guarantee — which could be staggering — would be paid by taxpayers.
I keep seeing the word ‘crisis’ all across the news. I must be disconnected because I don’t see it as a crisis…
Capitalism’s Reality Check…The biggest political story of 2008 is getting little coverage. It involves the collapse of assumptions that have dominated our economic debate for three decades.
Since the Reagan years, free-market cliches have passed for sophisticated economic analysis. But in the current crisis, these ideas are falling, one by one, as even conservatives recognize that capitalism is ailing.
You know the talking points: Regulation is the problem and deregulation is the solution. The distribution of income and wealth doesn’t matter. Providing incentives for the investors of capital to “grow the pie” is the only policy that counts. Free trade produces well-distributed economic growth, and any dissent from this orthodoxy is “protectionism.”
The old script is in rewrite. “We are in a worldwide crisis now because of excessive deregulation,” Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview.
I told my wife last night that through the lens of the rear-view mirror, this week may look much like Black Monday week in 1987, though without the highly-reported one-day 20 pct drop in the DJIA. It sure feels like that week!
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 06:19:04
DJIA = Maginot Line
Comment by packman
2008-07-11 09:06:25
Just MHO - we may have an upcoming support level, but I think it will be temporary, like on the order of a few months perhaps. Long term (over the next 2-3 years) I think we still have quite a ways to go down. The fundamentals of the economy are eroding before our eyes - the one thing propping it up - housing - is now gone. Being that prices are still too high by about 60% nationwide, I don’t think housing will propping up the economy again anytime soon. We have to work down to the true economic fundamental base before we see *real* long-term support. IMO we haven’t really been on that base since about the mid 80’s; or perhaps we were close to it in the mid 90’s.
From a market numbers perspective I think the true base that we’re working towards, though may actually overshoot, is about 800 on the S&P and about 6,000 on the Dow. This is based loosely on the mid-80’s levels, plus a reasonable amount of growth. Certainly (if we get down to those levels) there will be bargains to be had before then, but overall the markets won’t be a good place to be until then on the long side.
Perhaps some other bubble will come along and artificially prop us up again and prove me wrong though. Commodities isn’t going to be it. Except maybe popcorn.
Comment by Spykeeboi
2008-07-11 10:17:13
Housing was only fueling the growth in the economy, not the economy as a whole. And yes, many will be looking for the next bubble to return us to high growth rates, but what is really necessary is for the US to learn how to exist with moderate (1-2%) growth. Americans are, largely, a greedy, ravenous sect; it’s going to be painful for most of us to adapt to the simple life.
Comment by Rental Watch
2008-07-11 10:42:05
IMHO the time to be selling was 6 months ago, and the time to be buying is still a few months off.
But then again, I don’t trade regularly. So I look at things much differently.
If we hit 1200, I would be tempted to put a big chunk in waiting for a pop. Another course of action I am considering is taking 5% my 401k money that I switched into the conservative options my plan offers back into more aggressive models each month. Whatever happens on Wall Street should come to a head in less than 20 months. You wont capture the low, but you wont be stuck at a peak either.
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Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-07-11 07:06:59
I am interviewing three financial advisors.
I hope to be ready when the bottom is in.
I’m like, take my $ please!
My new state sponsored computer is on it’s way.
Thanks U.S.
Capitulation, at long last?
Or, perhaps you are talking short term. Prolly that. Apologies, since I have only been posting here a couple months and struggle with some nuances of the regulars.
Thanks.
That is so silly. Having spent some time in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe before that house of cards collapsed, I can assure you that shopping and paying for things with money the way we do here is very much unlike standing in lines for random goods or writing letters to the Politboro or local Soviet hoping for choice assignments. Pointed political interjections that might chafe with current policies aren’t tolerated in such environments either. Show me where the Fed prevented people from making investments or trading with each other.
I read that Nigeria’s total output is less than the margin of error when calculating worldwide supply.. and yet when some militia destroys (or even threatens to destroy) a pipeline or something in Nigeria, oil price rises.
Irrational fear is not usually accepted as a fundamental market factor, afaik.
Vice President Dodd? Yeah, that’s change you can believe in.
Posted at 12:59am on Jul. 11, 2008
Obama/… DODD?
Clearly, I am in some sort of benevolent version of the Truman Show.
By Moe Lane
It’s like this entire election season was created to make me laugh like a loon on a regular basis.
Obama seeks info on Dodd in vice president search
By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer 57 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - Barack Obama’s presidential campaign has requested information from Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd as part of its search for a possible vice presidential candidate.
The former White House hopeful and Connecticut lawmaker indicated Wednesday that he has been approached by the campaign. “There’s been some inquiries, yeah,” Dodd said. “They ask for a lot of stuff. I’ll leave it there.”
Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton and Dodd’s Senate office declined comment Thursday.
Probably wise of both. Free hint to the Obama campaign: when the AP, on looking over a potential VP candidate’s recent history, decides to go with the “may be implicated in mortgage kickback scandal” bit over the “sorta-kinda fought to derail the FISA bill” bit… yeah, maybe this was a bit of a time-waster for you. But don’t let me stop you from picking the man. All I ask is that you wait for my air-popper to finish the latest bowl of popcorn.
Because you can’t put BACON SALT* on microwave popcorn, of course.
Bobby Jindal would be a better possibility for (R). I can’t imagine a northeasterner working out on either ticket.
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Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-07-11 09:08:53
I can’t imagine a northeasterner working out on either ticket.
I think your instincts are right for both camps.
A good VP pick always adds the potential to pick up voters, covers deficiencies at the top of the ticket (real or perceived) — and sometimes provides an attack dog for the campaign.
Nope…It will be Romney…200 mil + net worth is a nice piggy bank to tap and Romney will do it because he will speculate that grandpa McCain can’t make a 8 year run…
I saw Ran Paul on TV for the first time yesterday answering question about the fed etc. He is right on the mark about things. I tell ya, that guy should run for president.
Ask Ron Paul what he thinks about 9/11. After the first incoherent sentence, the rest is unimportant. The guy may be a great doctor, but he’s still a loon. Maybe he has a UFO landing dock in his back yard. Someone should check.
Comment by patient renter
2008-07-11 14:00:24
Incredulous, why are you spreading crap and name-calling? The primaries are over. Find a new gig.
Comment by Incredulous (the original)
2008-07-11 19:34:07
I was reponding to Mr. Vincent’s facetious comment, quoted below:
“I saw Ran Paul on TV for the first time yesterday answering question about the fed etc. He is right on the mark about things. I tell ya, that guy should run for president.”
I can crack on Ron Paul, if he can keep popping up on television babbling 9/11 nonsense. You’d think someone who thought he could be president would at least spend an hour on intelligent research, rather than arriving at a conclusion based on a fake documentary (”Loose Change”), reciting conspiracy talking points. Pandering to an 18-21 year-old audience not known for its wisdom is kind of laughable, considering the guy is what, two, three million years old?
You are like the best day-trading milk cow ever, producing 16 gallons a day, day in and day out…
But you tend to spill around 15 of those gallons on the floor every day, when you turn into a ridiculous political hack and post much ado about nothings, like your latest effort.
Dodd’s a pile of a human being, but i’ve always believed in negotiation (even if nothing comes of it), and most wars in history happen when both sides think the worst of one another, without going to the effort of learning what makes each other tick.
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Comment by BP
2008-07-11 06:20:46
You are right, we should have learned what made them good NAZI folks tick. Wait a minute they were ticks!!
Comment by Blano
2008-07-11 07:31:09
Deep down, Mao really was a nice guy too. It’s a shame we didn’t understand his true feelings. Obviously it’s our fault.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 07:34:25
Didn’t we negotiate with some feller named Mao, once upon a time back in the days of ping pong diplomacy?
The US supported Mao during WWII when we were both fighting the Japanese.
Did the same with Ho Chi Minh.
I just wonder some times how much history might have changed if, instead of taking the Black or white/Cold War view of things, the PTB at the time had spent some time studying what motivated Mao and (especially) Ho Chi Minh.
You know alad most of the time I find your posts interesting and thought provoking as I do with a lot of the other posters here. However, when the name calling starts it just makes you and other posters that result to name calling look small, not intelligent or thinking outside the box.
“I am a national mortgage banker who funds 150 to 200 loans a month. However, we have lost our ability to fund high-balance loans above $729,000 due to the lack of liquidity in the credit markets. Deutsche Bank used to have a correspondent division but they, too, have left the market except for their private-banking division. Would you know of any institutions that are purchasing high quality mortgages?”
The simple solution would be to get the sellers to all drop their prices below $729,000.
It would have been funnier if the journal suggested going on Oprah to see if he could find some lenders.
I would contend that less than 2% of all US homebuyers can afford anything in the 700K area using sensible, real world metrics. This shouldn’t even be a topic of discussion.
Don’t forget a fact mentioned in a post above (not being disputed here) that 1% in the US already own 40% of US things. Maybe they aren’t interested in buying more right now.
Imagining that fannie and freddie shares go to 1 penny and the Gov’t steps in.
Why does the gov’t step in to save bond holders but not shareholders? From someone who holds no shares or bonds, why do I care if the govt saves bond holders vs. shareholders? To me, they’re both investors who made bad decisions. Pension funds hold both bonds and shares, 401ks have exposure to both?
I realize the agency bonds far outweigh the shares in terms of value, but to someone from the outside, the difference between the two seems arbitrary.
[This is in no way an endorsement to save shareholders.]
If the bond holders loose their capital, no one will buy fannie or freddie bonds for a very long time (or ever) - result? No mortgage lending except from banks’ nonexistent capital reserves. Housing sales stop.
If the share holders loose their money, then investors made a bad investment and paid for a bad decision.
“If the bond holders loose their capital, no one will buy fannie or freddie bonds for a very long time (or ever) - result? No mortgage lending except from banks’ nonexistent capital reserves. Housing sales stop.”
Why not just lower house prices to where people can afford to pay cash? I mean, bank credit is really an optional thing, when you think about it. Life would still go on without banks. People could use prosper.com or something.
And please, it’s lose, not loose. Loose rhymes with moose, lose rhymes with fuse.
What is the basis for considering them worthless? I’m curious about sudden publicity rush about the GSEs and what may be behind it. They’ve raised billions week after week. Why wasn’t it considered a problem when they pleaded guilty to billions in fraud, years ago?
Just yesterday I posted an article with a 20 YO buy a $300k place in Seattle. Mortgage money must not be very tight. And what is wrong with it getting a little harder to get a housing loan in light of the biggest housing bust in history? Is what we are seeing simply a rational reaction to events?
Exactly. This GSE thing has been a puzzlement to me. “Suddenly”, there’s a problem.
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Comment by combotechie
2008-07-11 05:29:37
“Suddenly there is a problem.”
Isn’t this the way it always is? Few financial problems happen suddenly, it’s only their “discovery” that suddenly happens and causes the chaos.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 05:37:29
“You roll back the stones, and you find slithering things.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Comment by GH
2008-07-11 06:46:27
Ha, I have a long time friend like this. He quits his job and lives on savings for a while. One day he is like OMG, I have a 3 day notice on my rent and have no money to pay, like it suddenly happened to him?
Comment by MEaston
2008-07-11 09:51:40
It’s not suddenly there is a problem
It’s suddenly there is a problem that’s too big to sweep under the rug.
I think that they guarantee something like $1.5 Trillion in bonds. So they just need a small percentage of those bonds to go bad and they are technically insolvent.
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Comment by Best Wishes
2008-07-11 06:00:16
I’ve been saying for years, as far back as 2003, that these 2 enties were in trouble. They’ve been cooking the books for years. I say let them fail. What’s all this bull about they’re “Too big to fail”. Nonsense. The bigger you are the harder you fall.
The guys running these entities are CROOKS and should be put in jail.
“Why wasn’t it considered a problem when they pleaded guilty to billions in fraud, years ago?”
Real estate always went up back then.
I think the collective realization of how extreme the home price declines are may have finally permeated the thick skulls of bovines who live on Wall Street. HP’s recent attempts to rationalize away the price declines recently seen in U.S. housing price indexes makes sense in light of the implications of falling housing prices for the value of the highly-leveraged GSE operations.
Because when you’re a bank you only last as long as someone is willing to loan you money. And starting today, people started thinking really hard about loaning them money.
Now that the administration opened their mouth about conservitorship, they more or less painted themeselves into a corner with few options.
If Freddie and Fannie stop making loans, it won’t be difficult to get a mortgage, it will be nearly impossible. All that will be left are GNMA and FHA insurance, and neither of them are in any shape to pick up that much slack.
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Comment by Evil Capitalist
2008-07-11 07:15:27
If F&F stop making loans it would be nearly impossible to get mortgage loans that one should not be getting anyway. Suddenly, the only thing that would matter would be borrowers ability to repay the loan. And that’s a good thing!
What we are witnessing is a Compound Fracture of our financial system, and for some crazy reason, Wall Street still thinks it can still run economic marathons in spite of all evidence to the contrary…
Oh really? The sun is rising here, and I don’t see any bank lines. The ATMs are working. People are going to work. Why is everybody buying into the hype? Are there groups that benefit from such things and are you helping them out?
I don’t think that’s true…the Fannie/Freddy debt is backed by assets (houses)…sure the house values may not be worth enough to cover the entire debt, but the liability minus value is hardly equal to the national debt. Maybe at most 1/4? Still a big number, bit there is a bit too much hype going around, even for a bear like me.
Comment by scdave
2008-07-11 08:22:16
I agree Arroyo…I say look east for the underlying problem ala “Israel”….I think they aare going to do it…They won’t get the support from Obama…The window is closing and they are going to pull the trigger IMO…Either that OR Iran is going to blink…Which one is it ??
Comment by implosion
2008-07-11 11:32:37
Sometimes I wonder if Iran’s leaders have a death wish. They’re trying to get a nuke and now they show they have a delivery system to hit Israel. They have to be aware that Israel likely has a good sized nuclear arsenal and can put a serious hurt on them.
There are other data sources besides wiki on google. I like the French President quote though:
On 1 February 2007, President Chirac of France commented on the nuclear ambitions of Iran, hinting on possible nuclear countermeasures from Israel:
“Where will it drop it, this bomb? On Israel? It would not have gone 200 metres into the atmosphere before Tehran would be razed”.[31]
In arguing that the United States should directly talk to Iran rather than through intermediaries, former President Jimmy Carter stated in May 2008 that Israel has “150 or more” nuclear weapons in its arsenal.[32]
That depends on whether the Saudis/SWF or the Chinese/UST are holding the paper. Whichever, We the Taxpayers are going to pick up the tab…cleverly, perhaps, with devalued USDs.
(Enjoy the horsies, Ouro.)
Comment by david
2008-07-11 11:44:35
I say that this fannie scare is a cover to pass an emergency housing bill next week. Watch for the porkiest bill in history with lots of goodies for insiders.
It would not cost $5T for the US to shore up Fannie/Freddie.
It would cost whatever losses there were on those loans. Could it be $500B? Sure. Nowhere close to $5T.
Whether the US SHOULD shore up Fannie/Freddie is a different question. If the US government was so afraid of a Bear Stearns failure that they’d allow a controlled burn of the shareholder equity there, I would be shocked if they don’t intervene in some way shape or form to attempt a controlled burn of Fannie/Freddie equityholders.
And no Ben, I’m not crying bailout in any way that will keep home prices from falling, but I would be shocked if fixing FNM/FRE doesn’t come out of our taxpaying pockets.
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Comment by realestateskeptic
2008-07-11 12:02:30
They HAVE to sure up Fannie/Freddie. There is already an implied government guarantee as a GSE. If the mortgage market ceases to exist, which will basically happen if there is no F/F, then the housing market, construction, manufacturing and just about everything else is done.
Its really quite simple: The F/F stock may be worth little (though that is debatable), but their assets are worth close to $5T by any reasonable valuation method. It is NOT a $5T bailout that is necessary unless all of their loans are bad. If this is true, then Aladinsane might be right and we will need gold bars and should flee the US.
Comment by CA renter
2008-07-12 04:50:32
What if ~20% of F&F’s debt/guarantees were bad? 1 trillion?
Assuming the govt covered these losses (is that why the govt should bail them out???), where will the **future** mortgage money come from? Will bond investors continue to buy these mortgages after it’s been made clear that F&F were insolvent…even IF the govt were to back these new bonds? Would the govt have any credibility? Would they print? Would we see massive inflation if they took over the GSEs? Would we see higher interest rates to entice investors to buy F&F bonds, both because of greater inflationary concerns and because of F&F’s fragile states?
Admittedly, I’m not the brightest crayon in the box, but the word “conservatorship” is bouncing around out there in several MSM articles with regard to Fred/Fannie.
Something tells me iz too beeeg. (er…like the sheer numbers).
No lines at the bank or ATM’s. Yeah, that’s because the people are broke, they have NO savings, just pure DEBT. Therefore, no run on the bank to take out their savings for their BROKE.
Most Americans are PENNYLESS and in DEBT UP TO THEIR EYEBALLS.
They’re be a line outside that bank real soon and it will be filled with people waiting to plead with their banker to LEND them more money.
How many people do you all know that can come up with $5k, in a week’s time?
Precious few…
To participate in a bank run, you must be fiscally fit.
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Comment by Best Wishes
2008-07-11 07:20:21
Exactly!!! That’s why there will be NO run on the bank. Americans have NO MONEY, JUST DEBT.
CASH IS KING!!! 10% CD’s are on there way, just wait. They’re coming. Good things come to those that wait. Your Patience will payoff. So, glad I didn’t get into equites. We’ve had nothing but sucker’s rallies since October. American is BROKE and BROKEN. I’m waiting for DOW 10,000 or less. It’s coming, you’ll see. !!!!!!
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-11 08:12:13
“CASH IS KING!!! 10% CD’s are on there way, just wait.”
I remember being a dumb college student circa 1980, when an even dumber student suggested that I walk with him down to the neighborhood bank to purchase CDs yielding 10 pct. I was too dumb to take him up on the idea (but I would go for it in a heartbeat today!).
Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-07-11 11:01:43
I remember a “Bosom Buddies” episode (sorry, Tom Hanks), circa 1980, that revolved around the two guys saving enough money to go out and buy a T-bill.
Comment by combotechie
2008-07-11 11:08:03
The irony is that a 10% rate offer by a bank might be a sign that you should look elsewhere to put your cash, like maybe the stock market.
The desperate need for cash should be accompanied by a high price for this cash, and this high price will be reflected in high interest rates.
But this desperate need for cash may also be reflected by declining stock prices as mutual funds are forced to dump their stock holdings to raise cash to meet withdrawl demands for their cash-strapped fundholders.
If this is the case then stocks is where one should put their money. High interest rates and low stock prices are both temporary conditions; It’s better lock in a low stock price than a high interest rate, IMO.
Great point! You can’t have a 1930s-style bank run if nobody has any savings in the bank.
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Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-07-11 11:11:24
And, following that line of thinking, maybe government will finally stop spending money they don’t have, when they realize that the fixed targets (homeowners, US based businesses) are turnips that you can’t get blood from, and the portable money will move overseas to greener pastures, if they get too crazy trying to raise taxes. Which will cause the government to curb their spending, which will eventually lead to a greater prosperity for everyone!!!!!!
I’ve one has totally banked on meltdown, they’re going to do everything they can to cheer it on. And use as much free bandwidth as they are allowed, in the process.
Ben, good point. I worked 52 hours this week, and am paid for every hour. I saw no fewer cars and trucks on I-95 here on the east coast on the way to work. People are busy. Yes, some of us have to pay a bigger chunk of their incomes on loans worth more than their POS crackerjack box “houses.” But business goes on.
My dad told me 20 years ago that we will have another depression. In the meantime, fortunes were made in those 20 years. But I do think his prediction is right. Eventually we will have an economic depression. I think that may start (gulp) within 18 months. Some people think we are already in a depression. But that does not cause me to get out of equities. I’ll do fine in a depression with my hedges against equities.
More like a boil that got lanced, or a tumor that got removed. If you look behind the huge housing, commodities, and derivatives bubble thing it seems that behind all of that there is modest but robust growth across the board. The sleep of reason conjured monsters, and people told themselves and others things like “My house is worth a million dollars” and “My CDOs have high yields”. Now these strange dreams are fading with the dawn and we remain.
A man upset about a property transaction fatally shot a real estate agent in the head during a meeting Tuesday morning in the victim’s office, authorities said.
I think that no matter what, for some purposes, gas demand is inflexible. People have to have it to go to work, get food, deliver kids to school etc. I just think we’ll be seeing a lot more car pooling, sharp declines in unneeded trips, lots more fuel efficient vehicles, etc - I think we’ve covered it all here before.
One big one will be the movement of people back to population and employment centers, as well as the continuing proliferation of home based work for those who can produce over the internet. I already do with my business and it’s very viable. Most office based jobs probably can be modified to work remotely and all the better for it. JMHO.
I work with a municipal planner. I had to explain “peak oil” to him because he thought Peak Oil was the name of an oil company. He told me he wasn’t worried about the cost of gas because he would just ride his bike to work if it got too expensive. I told him when gas was too expensive for the masses he wouldn’t have a job to go to. He’s a government planner working on new developments and he can’t see the relationship between energy costs and the stupid go-go development we’ve seen over the last decade. He’s also working on a plan to manage growth for the next 20 years. I don’t think he’s going to have to worry about growth, as some counties in this end of the state are reporting declining populations. New development plans in my city are 1/3 of what they were last year, and I think we’re grossly overbuilt.
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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 06:48:29
“Growth for the sake of growth is a cancerous madness.”
Edward Abbey
Comment by Bad Chile
2008-07-11 11:07:25
Excellent quote, however in my Abbey reference of quoations it is:
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”
What?
Since when can’t kids walk to school, soccer practice and dance lessons…we did. School was a mile away. Grocery store…plan ahead..one trip a week. One auto per family…works for me. My parents only had one car..both worked. One walked to work. Oh, and since when did it become law, that teenagers have their own car…cell phone…television… These items were earned in my family. Didn’t have my own car till 19, I earned the money to pay cash first. I used the family car, when I earned the privilege. Simple rules can save thousands in dollars and gas!
P S. Still don’t waste my money on cell phones or cable tv.
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Comment by tresho
2008-07-11 15:19:18
Since WWII a big chunk of the US population has moved themselves to places where the scenario you just described can’t possibly work without an auto. My family lived exactly as you described — in the 1950’s.
the continuing proliferation of home based work for those who can produce over the internet
The servers I manage are in Las Vegas and New Jersey, with staff in New York and Boston… there’s absolutely no reason for me to be in the office, except for management’s need for direct physical conversation (aka meetings). In development, our source code repository is in New Jersey and our dev/staging/QA are hosted with Amazon AWS. We use Trac for bug tracking and as a Wiki, so our development staff in Boston could work anywhere and remain connected and in-touch…
Communications, broadband internet, and VPN’s are ubiquitous today, so at $8-10/gallon many tech/software jobs will be remote. Either that, or large corporations will start offering “campus” type housing. I could see Google and Microsoft making corporate housing a part of developer’s compensation. No need to worry about fuel cost when you live where you work…
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Comment by tresho
2008-07-11 15:20:28
No need to worry about fuel cost when you live where you work… and you may wind up owing your soul to the company store.
Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-11 17:34:48
A younger consultant than me here in Maryland in a small community is getting by without a car (so far). He can walk to the office if he wants. On weekends he takes a cab 3 miles to the Amtrak station and goes to New York to visit his brother. On weekdays he stays in a hotel. Probably spends $2300 per month but earns $8000 to $10000 per month. No dependents, no pets, etc. I found out he does not have a car, but used to have one.
Not too difficult to give up a car. You do not “have” to become a parent in your 20s or even 30s. You don’t have to get married. You don’t have to have a big screen TV. You don’t “have” to have a car. I got by without one until I was 26 (in 1985). One of my sisters lived in San Francisco for several years without a car. Rode her bicycle around the city. Funny how I was never worried about her biking as much as Im’ worried about her driving nowadays! I dated an older woman once who just moved from Manhattan to Tucson (where I lived). She was in her 40s and did not know how to drive. Never had to. Admirable!
I have no idea, but driving around Pinellas County shows me that $4 is puttin’ the hurt on many. The bus stops are crowded and I see more people walking and biking, even in the Florida summer heat.
Just what I need to see, more dudes walking around with their shirts off.
“The bus stops are crowded and I see more people walking and biking, even in the Florida summer heat.”
and i think this is a wonderful thing, it makes for a more healthy lifestyle. just think of the air quality when we dont have all this needless driving around!
I see more people conserving. I use 10% less gasoline (in the car) per week now compared to a month ago. The airplanes between BWI and Phoenix are now having empty seats.
We’ll come out stronger in ten years from this oil crisis. Cities will become stronger. Rural areas will become less populated. Over 50% of illinois energy is provided by nuclear energy. In ten years we will see a significant increase in nuclear energy. Cities of America will grow dim within 5 years, but shine brighter than ever in ten years. Can’t say the same about the rural areas. Gotta have a good aim there. Police and ambulances won’t help you out where there is “scenery.”
Refineries are running at something like 85% of capacity. Gas storage facilities are full. All this is due to people driving less. The word “Staycation” has sprung into being to partially explain this phenom.
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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 05:50:06
Who cares how much gas America is using?
Chindia is picking up our slack and then some.
Fungible items like Oil & Gold always find their way to those that can pay…
Comment by combotechie
2008-07-11 06:59:13
Plus, those running the Highway Trust Fund are projecting a $3 billion shortfall this year due to decreased tax revenues resulting from declining gasoline sales.
Comment by scdave
2008-07-11 08:32:38
Tax revenue on all fronts are going to be way down…Its also going to be delayed reality…Think we have deficits now, wait until 09 & 10…Hold onto your wallets everybody..The Greedy hand is comming…
Comment by MEaston
2008-07-11 10:40:28
Chindia is picking up the slack if you look in the review mirror.
China is getting hit hard with inflation
Next up decreased exports as US and world consumers spend more on food and fuel.
Then you will see consumption in these places slow.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 11:08:15
China subsidizes the price of oil, I think a gallon of gas is around $2.50.
What do they care if they get rid of Yankee Dollars and buy overpriced oil to sell on the cheap?
If I wanted to defeat the USA w/o firing a shot, i’d bleed us at the pumps.
Comment by tresho
2008-07-11 15:23:05
those running the Highway Trust Fund are projecting a $3 billion shortfall this year due to decreased tax revenues resulting from declining gasoline sales Look on the bright side. Wear & tear on the highways will go down as the miles driven go down, so less repairs will be necessary.
Not scientific but here is what a guy told me at a ConWay Western Dock (large package shipper-UPS of bulk shipments).
The diesel tanker drivers have to fight over delivery assignments. Seems there are less tanker deliveries for the truck drivers. This translates into less $ for the truck drive.
In my travels, although I see fewer flyers on airlines and I’m driving less myself, the demand for oil will continue to grow outside the U.S. substantially. Whatever the U.S. consumer does to cut back won’t really matter. Tens of milions of more cars will be on the roads in Asia in the next two years.
“You just hear this constant whining, complaining, about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline. … We’ve never been more dominant; we’ve never had more natural advantages than we have today.”
uh, have you all not been complaining for 4 straight years here about how nobody wants to take responsibility for their stupidity, the market should deal with this, etc.? That is what he is saying, inconveniently for some of you, he is not a democrat.
He’s not saying the market will take care of things. He’s saying that if we just go out and spend money and buy houses, etc…. then the recession would magically go away.
But the Republican Party has a hard time acknowledging debt: It isn’t their problem. Just cut taxes on the wealthy, increase deficit spending, and print greenbacks to c.y.a. if you run into any problems.
The bush administration better start shrink wrapping some more of those Billions a Billions in 100 Dollar Bills on pallets and loading them onto the C-130’s AGAIN.
This time, he better fly them to Freddie and Fannie because they NEED them a WHOLE lot more than his Criminal, Thug and Hoodlum Friends in Iraq.
Ben just DOSEN’T have enough helicopters to PULL OFF this TRICK
I don’t understand today’s facination with “evangs” and “neo-cons” and to be honest, banging on the christian right doesn’t help your argument one bit. It just shows how unhappy and hateful you’re feeling today.
I specifically blame the American evangelical movement for much of what has transpired to make this country into what it has become.
A fear-based existence, based on blind faith (the results of which we are witnessing in the financial sector) is no way to live.
Your ride on the back of the elephant did more damage to this country than can ever be imagined…
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Comment by exeter
2008-07-11 07:09:35
“A fear-based existence,”
BINGO… Be afraid, we’ll protect you. And when you’re not afraid anymore we’ll wheel another boogeyman for you to cower from.
And when the lying, thieving Cons have cried fire one too many times is when deceptive turds get the swirly twirl.
There’s a royal flush in someones hand.
Comment by Blue Skye
2008-07-11 07:53:45
There are new elephants on the roam to keep us paying for protection.
Comment by phillygal
2008-07-11 08:03:45
I specifically blame the American evangelical movement for much of what has transpired to make this country into what it has become.
No shit. The American evangelical movement (whatever that is) has so destroyed the USA that foreign nationals who are attempting to obtain residence here - legally - are on three to ten year wait lists. And no one has to be reminded of the numbers crashing our borders illegally. All that trouble to get into this hellhole of the United States.
here’s a hot tip for you:
BF works at Boeing. He told me that special Chinook helicopters are on line and being specially outfitted to airlift American citizens OUT of the country when The Great Meltdown occurs. But you can only secure your place on those special CH 47s if you’re a card carrying member of The American Evangelical Movement, and they don’t accept gold bullion as payment.
(OK, Lad, now go ahead and call me a cow like you did Txchk.)
Comment by iftheshoefits
2008-07-11 09:37:32
Lessee, smears on blacks, “evangs”, “cows”, “neo-cons” (code word for da Jooos), all in one thread, even. Gettin’ into pretty rarefied air here. And this guy thinks he’s morally and intellectually superior to everyone else? No thanks, I’ll pass on that one.
Comment by phillygal
2008-07-11 10:32:10
I don’t know why he has such a stick up his azz about “evangs” when he’s the primo evangelist for the Religion of AU.
Comment by MC_V
2008-07-11 12:44:23
“I specifically blame the American evangelical movement for much of what has transpired to make this country into what it has become.”
“you can only secure your place on those special CH 47s if you’re a card carrying member of The American Evangelical Movement”
Are you guys for real? I’m no evangelical, whatever that is, but the ridiculousness of this logic is like saying the FB is to be specifically blamed for what has transpired in the housing market.
Whatever!
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2008-07-11 13:01:34
BF works at Boeing. He told me that special Chinook helicopters are on line and being specially outfitted to airlift American citizens OUT of the country when The Great Meltdown occurs. But you can only secure your place on those special CH 47s if you’re a card carrying member of The American Evangelical Movement, and they don’t accept gold bullion as payment.
That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever read in here, and that includes LV Landlord’s posts. And where are these Chinooks going to deposit said Evangelical Chosen? Mexico? And why would one need a “specially outfitted” chopper to hold the Evangelicals - does it have an open ceiling in case they get raptured en route to their secret destination?
Did your BF also inform you that 4,000 Jews got telephone calls the day before the 9/11 attacks telling them not to show up for their jobs at the World Trade Center, or that the design of the $20 bill foretold the attacks? [OK, disregard all those tributes to WTC victims with Jewish surnames, since these memorials were obvious forgeries, right?] Seriously, the gullibility of some people and the BS they’ll accept uncritically never ceases to amaze me.
Comment by phillygal
2008-07-11 13:07:10
I was being sarcastic.
There will be no CH47 rapture of evangelicals or anybody else, I repeat, no Chinook airlift (once the SHTF) is planned…
AFAIK
seriously, wtf happened to this blog’s TIC-o-meter, anyway? I had to explain myself downthread on this point because Lip took offense and called me a dolt.
Comment by Lip
2008-07-11 21:03:49
Phillygal,
Sorry, I just jumped in and didn’t see your sarcasm. Please forgive me. You know I’ve tried sarcasm on the HBB a few times and I don’t communicate it well and I didn’t get it today.
You don’t need to be partisan to recognize one undeniable fact….Bush & Cheney are energy men and anybody in oil during their term have made a lot of money…They are going to throw a ticker tape parade when these guys return to Texas & Wyoming…
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Comment by hondje
2008-07-11 11:11:44
“Since Bush took office in 2001, the US national debt has ballooned by $4 trillion dollars, and 2.6 million manufacturing jobs were shipped overseas. The US banking industry is mired in its worst crisis since the Great Depression, and the US economy has lost 432,000 jobs over the past six months. Washington is spending $10 billion per month in Iraq, and the American electorate wants change.”
Lip, I saw this post on one of the Yahoo message boards and thought of you and joeyincali:
Dear Red States:
We’re ticked off at the way you’ve treated California and we’ve decided we’re leaving.
We intend to form our own country and we’re taking the other Blue States with us.
In case you aren’t aware that includes Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and all the Northeast.
We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation and especially to the people of the new country of New California.
To sum up briefly:
You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states.
We get stem cell research and the best beaches.
We get Elliot Spitzer. You get Ken Lay.
We get the Statue of Liberty. You get OpryLand.
We get Intel and Microsoft. You get WorldCom.
We get Harvard. You get Ole’ Miss.
We get 85 percent of America’s venture capital and entrepreneurs.
You get Alabama.
We get two-thirds of the tax revenue. You get to make the red states
pay their fair share.
Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian Coalition’s we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.
Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro choice and anti war and we’re going to want all our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight ask your evangelicals. They have kids they’re apparently willing to send to their deaths for no purpose and they don’t care if you don’t show pictures of their children’s caskets coming home.
We wish you success in Iraq and hope that the WMDs turn up but we’re not willing to spend our resources in Bush’s Quagmire.
With the Blue States in hand we will have firm control of 80% of the country’s fresh water, more than 90% of the pineapple and lettuce, 92% of the nation’s fresh fruit, 95% of America’s quality wines (you can serve French wines at state dinners) 90% of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the US low sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools plus Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Cal Tech and MIT.
With the Red States you will have to cope with 88% of all obese Americans and their projected health care costs, 92% of all US mosquitoes, nearly 100% of the tornadoes, 90% of the hurricanes, 99% of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100% of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia.
We get Hollywood and Yosemite, thank you.
38% of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually swallowed by a whale, 62% believe life is sacred unless we’re discussing the death penalty or gun laws, 44% say that evolution is only a theory, 53% that Saddam was involved in 9/11 and 61% of you crazy bastards believe you are people with higher morals then we lefties.
We’re taking the good pot too. You can have that dirt weed they grow in Mexico.
Zeus, Hera, Poseidon, Apollo, Artemis, Aphrodite, Ares, Hephaestus, Athena, Hermes, Hades, Demeter, Hestia, and Dionysus were all very powerful, all-knowing Gods, once upon a time in Ancient Greece.
If somebody said their names in a blasphemous fashion back then, bad things could happen.
Most of them sound like perfumes or colognes, now.
Comment by In Colorado
2008-07-11 08:35:08
Please be aware that Nuevo California will be …
It was almost sounding good until this was mentioned.
But get your terminology right. It will be called Aztlan.
Comment by exeter
2008-07-11 09:08:37
Nice hard reality Hondje but don’t expect ConTards to grasp it but I do love this tidbit;
“Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian Coalition’s we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.”
Maybe when the CCA makes social justice and protecting widows and children as Jesus instructed instead of harping on everyones sex life, they too will find their divorce rate drop. Until then, they’ll be marginalize to the fringes, right where they belong.
Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-07-11 09:48:36
Dear New California,
I guess that means you get to take all the Wall Street bloodsuckers, Hedge fund pukes, and the Jackholes in D.C.
We keep all the energy that is produced in the Red States, that is currently exported to the Blue states.
Don’t let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.
Comment by tutto incognito
2008-07-11 10:11:38
Aladinsane,
I enjoy your multi-faceted posts. Are you foreign? Your observations are beyond what is expected from a person having grown in only one country.
Comment by exeter
2008-07-11 10:12:37
Considering 85% of all hydro is generated in blue states not to mention all the nuke, you’ve got a deal.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 10:36:59
tutto incognito:
I am the son of an immigrant of various ethnicities, whose college education was traveling millions of miles around the globe doing business, and seeing the world for what it really is, not the jaundiced view of the majority of my countrymen that can’t think outside of their little box.
Comment by tutto incognito
2008-07-11 10:45:51
That is why I love the US. Some individuals are the best specimens to be found anywhere. SOME, but the rest.. oh, boy… But that is the case anywhere really. but some worse than others, because in the US, the souls are gone, it is all transactions and brain washed by the TV. communism could not do it - making people equal only made them think outside of the box to differentiate between personalities. You only had yourself to show, not things… actually great times as a kid. the best by far!
Tutto.
Comment by Bad Chile
2008-07-11 11:11:18
New Mexico was a free territory. Thank you very much.
And I’d take the Duke of the south over the Duke of the north any day of the week. Much better weather. And better lookin’ cheerleaders.
Comment by Lip
2008-07-11 11:18:05
Y’all,
Sorry had to work and couldn’t keep up with everything.
hondje, in response to your reply, if you really believe in fairly tales, lets separate the country into the political factions as they truly exist and I don’t have time to find all the links right now.
So go back to the last election results and review which “counties” went for which candidate and then tell me how the blue counties have all of the resources. What you’ll find is that most of the blue counties are in the urban areas where all of the consumers reside and most of the red counties are in the areas where all of the resources lie.
Do you still think that you get all of the good parts of the country?
Still glad that I’m not a miserable lefty.
Lip
Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-07-11 12:00:37
“85% of the hydro…..all the nuke”
But……..I thought we were running out of water?
And as far as nuke plants……I’m in one of the reddest of Red States, and us dumb-ass country boyz gone done and figgured out how to build a nuke plant about 60 miles down the road.
Now, if we could just figure out what to do with all those 300 pound, two-headed, glow-in-the dark, largemouth bass that are in the plant’s lake…….:)
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-11 12:12:32
not to mention all the nuke,
wrong.
Anyway, why don’t all you blue staters just quit voting each other’s tax dollars away? And red staters too for that matter.
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-11 12:30:15
Hey Gulf, where do you reside?
Comment by hondje
2008-07-11 12:32:09
Li(s)p,
Heh, I dunno about fairy tales or Kool-Aide, but I think if you were to go back and take a look at the 2004 election results, you’d find a very high correlation between folks who voted GOP and folks who believe that Saddam Hussein was behind 9/11 and that we would be seen as heroes and liberators by the Iraqis….remind me again why you, Rush Limbaugh and Toby Keith haven’t yet volunteered for this noble cause…?
Comment by MC_V
2008-07-11 13:08:37
Get real! All of you! Red or Blue you both voted for the same party! When are you going to get it?
It’s a one party system with two heads. Think about it.
Comment by Lip
2008-07-11 16:30:42
Hadje,
Cute and typical. Can’t deal with rational reason so you have to devolve into name calling.
Here is the map I was talking about. Make your own conclusions if you’re capable.
“neo-cons” the universal liberal solvent for expressing “evil”.
“solvent”?…are you trying to say “explanation” perchance?
Don’t you government bureaucrats have better things to do today than whine? Apparently you’re having a mental recession.
STFU
I take great issue with calling the US a country of whiners and complainers. I sometimes see such comments posted on this blog, which surprises me because we’re not supposed to be kool-aid drinkers here.
Disparaging comments about American citizens in general is a form of kool-aid, IMO, meant to degrade people and make them think they “deserve” punishment, etc. The “whiners and complainers” are a relatively small percentage of people that receive way too much exposure in the media, thus people start to think all or most are that way. (I submit that the media is complicit in the spreading of this propaganda). Please, tell me, in what other country would a T. Boone Pickens (private citizen) spend his own money to bypass a completely incompetent government and put a viable energy plan before the public?
Of course, if you can convince the majority of citizens that they are crap, you can get them to accept crap. Gramm can shove it up his butt. Most of the people I know do the best they can for their families and are decent people who work hard, don’t have SUVs and (gasp) either rent or live in house purchased pre-bubble. I don’t hear much “whining and complaining”, although some are a tad pissed off about the gas prices and so am I. Most, rather than complaining, are looking for ways to offset the expenses.
Yeah, maybe citizens have made some mistakes, like not policing their elected reps enough or not protesting phoney wars of aggression. I’ll buy that. But I don’t see Who Flung Poo getting on his state controlled TeeVee touting an alternative energy plan.
Sorry, but most are whinners and complainers. All they want is their American Idol to win. I don’t watch the show, but from what I have read more people vote on Idol than they do in primary election.
And people would love alternate energy, but ask them to research and find the right one for their situation and that is tooooo hard. Most people can install their own solar at a significant discount, but that is to much work for the complainers. They would rather have the gov give them free money so they can pay someone else to install it for them.
And don’t tell me it is difficult or dangerous. Its not.
Our solar system cost $29k (we HELOC’d and pay $250 a month on a 20 year fixed) and we now pay less for electricity than we did, when i’d write a check to the electric company before we solared up…
When I talk to people about solar, they always bring up how expensive it is, yet, people quite willingly were buying gas-hog SUV’s for $29k, and nobody ever complained about the price of those?
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Comment by watcher
2008-07-11 06:53:32
I will give you 50k for the galaxy.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 07:20:21
I’ll sell you the dark side of the Sun for $50k.
Comment by hoz
2008-07-11 07:30:06
I’ll give you 20K for the moon! I’ll turn it into a giant billboard. Whee
Pepsi or Coke?
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 07:35:40
Some other cheese company in Wisconsin already has first dibs on the moon, sorry.
“I don’t watch the show, but from what I have read more people vote on Idol than they do in primary election.”
Most of those who vote on American Idol are not of age to vote in an election. Plus they can vote over and over, which theoretically isn’t allowed in elections. Keep drinking the elitist kool-aid and thanks for playing.
Sometimes what passes for “whining and complaining” is genuine protest about current conditions. Nothing wrong with that, either. Now, in this country called China, a little “whining and complaining” can earn you a ticket to that Great Factory in the Sky.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 06:28:51
“whining and complaining” in China means that you’ve lost your job, but worry not, there’s hundreds of other eager educated people that will take your place.
We and the Chinese are on an escalator, and we’re going down and they are going up, and we are at the half-way point of the ride.
USA is the world-wide leader in number of it’s own citizens in prison, and our cowboy hat used to be white, but we switched it out for a black model, when nobody was looking.
Comment by hoz
2008-07-11 06:31:30
Forget the Asia of your youth, the China of today has Unions including a WalMart union. Do the workers in the WalMarts in the US have any representation?
The only thing that one cannot protest in China (at this time) is the government. Business and business practices are under daily siege.
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 06:42:44
China 1968: Chairman Mao suits and little red books
China 2008: Italian suits and mauve passports
Comment by calex
2008-07-11 07:06:21
I should have said the majority.
And I stand by the majority will always complain and whine while the minority will see a situation and take action instead of complaining. I see it, and “hear it”, all the time. While the committe is scheduling another meeting trying to figure it out, I have already started the ball rolling to fix it.
Aladinsane solar is prime example. The majority will complain about their electric bill, Aladinsane took action.
Comment by Bronco
2008-07-11 09:18:39
“Aladinsane solar is prime example. The majority will complain about their electric bill, Aladinsane took action.”
What is the payback on that investment? What is the ROI?
Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-07-11 09:56:33
“…..can’t protest against the government….”
Sorta like the old joke:
Guy from the USA is talking to a Russian from the old USSR….
American: “In the US, we can say that the government sucks as much as we want!”
Russian: “So what? In the USSR, we can say the US govermnet sucks as much as we want, too!!”
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 11:24:19
What is the payback on that investment? What is the ROI?
I was instantly shielded from the price of oil going up*, (electricity) and how many of you after 20 years of paying the electric company, have received a free solar energy system, on the house?
* Thanks Sun
Comment by Bronco
2008-07-11 12:08:10
20 years payback?! wow, that seems like a long time. what was the ROI again?
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 12:15:08
You don’t get it…
I either write a check to the electric company for $300 a month, or $250 is taken out of my bank account to pay for my loan.
It’s already tilted $50 a month, my way.
I expect the bulge to grow substantially.
Comment by Bronco
2008-07-11 13:27:14
I get it; the numbers just don’t work for me. I applaud your environmental concerns, just not your financial savvy.
While doing some undergrad research I learned that four new cars were added to Chicagoland streets for every one new person added to the population. The trend persisted from 1990 to 2000 and was expected to continue until 2010…at least back then it was.
Whine whine whine going to one car would cause more miles driven because I would have to take my husband to work then drive back then go out to take my kids to the store every afternoon then go pick husband up whine whine whine.
My solution: Tired husband stop at the store on way home.
The guy was a bachelor once (probably for a long time based on his life choices), so he should still be qualified to shop.
The sad thing is that I’m going to HAVE to add a car next year… I’m going to be in full time school, the wife has to travel extensively, and the kid has got to get to school and back without help from us. Not a great situation…
“The guy was a bachelor once (probably for a long time based on his life choices), so he should still be qualified to shop.”
Ummm don’t be so sure - Actual quote from a young man I’m acquainted with.
“Cook? Ah don’t cook, my mom gits up and fixes lunch for mah stepdad everyday before she goes to work and she cooked dinner for mah dad everyday before he died. She kin do the same for me till ah get married then all she has to do is cook dinner for us…”
I don’t understand the comment that “Americans own too many cars”. What difference does it make, the number of cars I own? I personally own three cars. But I only drive one at a time. My fuel consumption is the same, regardless of the number of cars I own. Multiple cars allow me to own older, less expensive cars. Multiple cars allow me to size the task at hand - that is, most of the time I drive the 38mpg 2seat Honda CRX. But if I need to move something, haul firewood, etc. I can drive the 12mpg truck (and pull a trailer).
Between official testimony and speeches, between politicians’ promises and legislative compromises, some of the details, I’m embarrassed to say, slipped through the cracks.
For example, I missed the April announcement of an expansion to FHASecure, the Federal Housing Administration’s program to help creditworthy borrowers refinance adjustable-rate mortgages when the teaser rates reset.
Under the expanded program, borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages who missed up to three interest payments in the last year — and who receive a voluntary mortgage principal writedown from their lender — would qualify for an FHA-insured mortgage. The new terms go into effect July 14.
Holy CR*P!!! Has anyone looked at Fannie and Freddie this morning? 7 bucks and 5 bucks respectively… DOH! Rough ride ahead, but maybe some good deals out there…
“In the banks?” *SHUDDER* Not yet, but maybe, Just before the mergers begin and they’re at rock bottom single digits. Wachovia’s at 11 bucks down from a 13 close last night.
I just know that Fannie and Freddie executed many short sellers who knew all this years ago before the ship finally came in. Isn’t that always the way it is. Sorta like Worldcom or Enron.
Watching CNBC this morn saying that after the inevitable killing FNM, and Freddie will take this morn maybe the Gov. will step in over the weekend and so maybe a bounce play?
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Comment by matt
2008-07-11 06:09:52
With oil and Iran too? The manipulators have finally met their match.
Comment by txchick57
2008-07-11 06:17:36
yes, over the weekend is what I’m reading too
I’m just going to calculate my call bids, stick em in and watch the show.
Comment by Tom
2008-07-11 06:30:00
Usually when the Gov’t steps in, it’s the shareholders who get screwed.
Comment by Blano
2008-07-11 07:44:58
So this is Bear Stearns 2, is what it’s sounding like??
Meanwhile gas prices are down and it is demand destruction. Investors are diversifying money into commodities and specifically oil. Money will continue to pour in and prices will continue to go up regardless of supply and demand fundamentals.
“Men have been swindled by other men on many occasions. The autumn of 1929 was, perhaps, the first occasion when men succeeded on a large scale in swindling themselves.”
It will be interesting to see how they try to halt the implosion this time. fnm, fre, leh, and all the regional banks? They need to pull a golden rabbit out of the hat.
1979. All the goods are there except for interest rates. Food/fuel inflation, a pissed off proletariat, an imbecile president who clearly has no interest in representing the proletariat and rapidly contracting dollar supply.
Dahl is still on local Chicago radio. Less crazy but funnier since he stopped the boozing and drugging.
Comment by Blano
2008-07-11 07:51:26
I remember him when I was in Chicago in the early 80’s.
Before him, when I still lived in west Michigan, my morning wasn’t complete without Larry Lujack, Tommy Edwards and “Animal Stories” on WLS.
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-11 08:18:54
Ha, ha…”Animal Stories”…what memories. Always seemed I heard them over the AM Blaupunkt in our ‘74 Beetle - 1979 gas prices were never a big deal for the family because of that car.
July 11, 2008
New Wachovia CEO Robert Steel has worked for the Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. – On his first day as the new CEO of Wachovia Corp., Robert Steel saw the stock tumble to a 17-year low and faced questions about his ability to rescue the nation’s fourth-largest bank from its own missteps and the roiling credit market.
If im not mistaken, Wachovia was the result of a merger which included First Union. First Union was a very shady operation that found ways to shelter rich peoples income from taxes. These things were done illegally.
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The U.S. government is considering taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if their funding problems worsen, the New York Times said on Friday, causing shares of the mortgage finance companies to plunge.
BTW, I don’t expect an opening bell selloff on the headline indexes, but rather another very bouncy day off the opening bell level — like a cat on a hot tin roof. (But watch out below for anything that is under the hood of the main indexes and recently fell out of favor.)
Shares of mortgage giants back under intense selling pressure as investors fear a Washington takeover would render equity worthless.
Fannie Mae shares fall more than 50% in pre-open, to $6.50
Fannie, Freddie shares under siege
Stocks remain under pressure on report U.S. mulls takeover of mortgage firms
By MarketWatch
Last update: 7:56 a.m. EDT July 11, 2008
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Shares of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were down sharply once again in premarket trading Friday after a report the government is considering a possible takeover of the beleaguered companies.
A dilution of shareholder interest is not good for shareholders with falling earnings.
In any takeover, the shareholders will get zero, zip, zilch, nada.
Fannie and Freddie control ~80% of the home lending industry in the US.
“As of 7:57AM New York time the CDS on FNMA and Freddie Mac paper were quoted as follows:The senior debt is quoted 75/80 which is about unchanged from the close.
The subordinated debt is quoted 270/290. That is about 20 basis points wider.
Additionally , the CDS on Lehman Brothers is wider by 30 basis points at 355/375.”
Across the curve
For a supposedly government backed debt, this is a nightmare.
” 1. As the Times points out tonight, most people have no idea the capital at risk here. A 10% decline, say, in Freddie/Fannie assets would be roughly the same — $150-billion — as another Iraq war.
2. By taking on the companies’ liabilities the U.S. government’s total obligations would soar from $9-trillion to $14-trillion, almost certainly forcing U.S. rates much higher.
3. It has always been a canard to say that the companies have the regulator-required capital. Because they do, but the levels are so low as to be meaningless when looked at from a leverage perspective.
4. Most of the loans on Fannie/Freddie’s books were done before 2006 and are solid. And even the super-squirrely ones in 2006 and later are worth something, especially with insurance, so try hard not to be terrified by the total numbers involved here. This is going to be a wild ride, assuming a conservatorship happens, but total losses could end up being far less than the doomsters think.”
Mr. Paul Kedrosky
Most of the loans on Fannie/Freddie’s books were done before 2006 and are solid.
I think that depends in part on (a) how much real estate prices fall and (b) the impact of commodity inflation* and the housing crash on unemployment. If housing prices fall in half from here - which it has to do merely to return to historic norms (never mind overshoot), relative to income, and unemployment goes through the roof, FNM’s and FRE’s bond holders will need a bailout, and the stockholders will be zeroed out.
* Stores and restaurants are passing on a portion of the price hikes from their foreign suppliers, who have higher energy and commodity costs, on top of losses from the dollar’s recent depreciation. Consumers have less discretionary income to spend on buying clothes and gadgets or eating out because grocery store prices are up and gasoline prices have doubled over the past few years. Some of these stores and restaurants will close or cut headcount because they will repeatedly bust through their break-even points on the way to generating red ink.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Struggling homeowners who can’t afford their mortgages and banks facing big losses would get government help under a foreclosure rescue that has broad bipartisan support.
The plan is headed for Senate passage Friday, but faces a bumpy road, with the House planning a rewrite and the White House threatening a veto without major changes.
With the last procedural hurdles scaled Thursday, the package was on track for resounding approval in the Senate. It has drawn broad support in the Senate, reflecting widespread interest by lawmakers in both parties in sending election-year help to struggling homeowners facing tough economic times.
The centerpiece of the plan would let the Federal Housing Administration back up to $300 billion in new loans to give struggling homeowners more affordable, fixed-rate mortgages. It allows lenders who agree to take a substantial loss on the mortgages to reclaim at least some money and avoid a costly foreclosure.
Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the Financial Services Committee chairman and an architect of the bill, said the few but significant revisions House leaders are seeking could be made in as little as one week. Key players are preparing for a week of intense negotiations to resolve differences on Capitol Hill and with the White House, with an eye toward producing a bill President Bush could sign later this month.
The measure includes a long-sought modernization of the FHA and would create a new regulator and tighter controls on Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the government-sponsored mortgage giants. It also would provide $14.5 billion in housing tax breaks, including a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers.
Congressional Democrats are divided over important elements of the plan, including limits on loans the FHA may insure and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may buy. The Senate measure sets them at $625,000, while House leaders - including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., - want the cap as high as $730,000.
House leaders also oppose the immediate effective date of the Senate plan, preferring to phase in the new regulations for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over six months.
Another key point of dispute is $3.9 billion in the Senate measure for buying and rehabilitating foreclosed properties. The House’s band of conservative “Blue Dog” Democrats oppose the money, arguing that it would swell the deficit unless paired with cuts or tax increases to cover the cost.
But many Democrats, particularly members of the Congressional Black Caucus, are fighting to keep the funding, which they say will help prevent the communities hardest hit by the housing crisis from sliding into blight.
The White House singled out the money in its veto threat, calling it a bailout for lenders who helped cause the mortgage meltdown.
Lawmakers and the Bush administration agree on the central concept behind the measure: allowing the government to backstop new mortgages for struggling homeowners.
To make it more palatable to Republicans, the Senate measure would take responsibility for any losses away from taxpayers and instead cover them by diverting an affordable housing fund drawn from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac profits.
The scepter of Congress’s bailout measure passing is shoring up confidence in the GSEs by leaps and bounds…
BULLETIN
TREASURY CHIEF: FOCUS REMAINS ‘SUPPORTING’ FANNIE, FREDDIE IN ‘IMPORTANT PUBLIC MISSION’
Text of Paulson statement on Fannie, Freddie
By MarketWatch
Last update: 10:44 a.m. EDT July 11, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Here is the text of the statement released Friday by the Treasury Department about Fannie Mae (FNM:
Last: 8.74-4.46-33.79% 10:56am 07/11/2008) and Freddie Mac (FRE:
Last: 5.11-2.89-36.12% 10:56am 07/11/2008) :
Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. made the following comment today on news stories about “contingency planning” at Treasury:
“Today our primary focus is supporting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form as they carry out their important mission.
“We appreciate Congress’ important efforts to complete legislation that will help promote confidence in these companies. …”
“If the bond holders loose their capital, no one will buy fannie or freddie bonds for a very long time (or ever) - result? No mortgage lending except from banks’ nonexistent capital reserves. Housing sales stop.”
Polly, if the government plays it right, that doesn’t have to be a problem. The government created Fan and Fred to create a secondary mortgage market, then privitized in some years later.
It could create a new Fan and Fred, as federal agencies with explicit federal backing, to take out traditional mortgages with real rules and direct IRS income verification. Then let the Fan and Fred bondholders, not just stockholders, take the hit.
It would have to be done quickly, because yes housing sales would stop. But if the government can create the new entities in 60 days, well, banks could hold loans that long as long as they knew the takeout was coming.
I think what WT means is that the banks would make the loans starting on day one following the wipe-out of FNM and FRE, and sixty days later, the new gov entity would buy the loan from the bank.
There would be no 60-day hiatus.
If the Fed wants to play, they can lend the banks the money for such qualifying loans with no capital requirement (or very little capital requirement at the bank level).
The biggest political story of 2008 is getting little coverage. It involves the collapse of assumptions that have dominated our economic debate for three decades.
Since the Reagan years, free-market cliches have passed for sophisticated economic analysis. But in the current crisis, these ideas are falling, one by one, as even conservatives recognize that capitalism is ailing.
Right on Philly. When the charlatan authoritarian nuts posing as “evangelicals” make social justice issues (remember that little thing called Sermon on the Mount?)an equal part of their agenda is when they’ll get the respect they want.
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-11 12:28:16
lol
Comment by phillygal
2008-07-11 12:45:06
Lip and exeter -
I said that TIC. Upthread aladin blamed the terrible state of the country on the evangs, and I was just mimicking him. How can anyone blame any one class of people for everything that’s wrong with a nation? (substitute Blacks, or Latinos, or Greek window-washers or short car mechanics, for evangs - it’s equally meaningless).
exeter, I am aware of the Sermon on the Mount.
“Blessed are the peacemakers for they shall be called the children of God”, etc.
I guess I should have put a /sarcasm tag at the end of my post. Dag, I just got called a name. In the spirit of the Beatitudes, I shall let it pass. *halo*
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-11 13:35:14
“You never see animals going through the absurd and often horrible fooleries of magic and religions. Only man behaves with such gratuitous folly. It is the price he has to pay for being intelligent but not, as yet, intelligent enough.”
Aldous Huxley
Comment by exeter
2008-07-11 16:35:33
I know you were j/k Philly but I couldn’t help myself. No problem. Hypocrisy is just one of my peeves.
Since Fannie and Freddie are in the news these days, let me tell you a little about how they worked.
My wife used to work for a major lender and she was right in the thick of things.
Fannie had what was called a “decision engine”. This program would be used to determine if they would accept/take a loan or not from the lender. This engine did not tell the lender how to qualify a borrower. It did not say that someone needed to document income etc.
The “decision engine” was a program that was very easy for the lender to manipulate to get a “yes” answer. So, the lender basically was able to qualify a strawberry picker for a 700k house and dump it on Fannie.
This was all done by manipulation starting with the borrower and moving up the chain to the broker and lender.
Your post explains why I repeatedly say that a purging and correction of the loan making systems is needed because what was wrong with it has not been corrected yet . In a declining market ,that has not stabilized yet ,the risk is higher with any loan (unless a person puts a size-able down payment ) . Where is the correction of the appraisal system during the boom that was useless and corrupt ?
A new risk factor is present now for the GSE’s lending ,(or any lending )and that is the willingness for borrowers to walk in droves if property decreases in value in non-recourse States ,especially on low down payment loans .
Is Fred and Fannie going to be the new victim of choice for the pass the loans creep lenders? The fact that Freddie and Fannie had lower loan limits saved them from more loss during 2002-2008 already .But now they just had to raise that limit so Fannie and Fred is more exposed ,especially if they are going to refinance current high loan amount junk on the books by the bail out bill.
When the powers started this bail-out plan ,I really don’t think they had any idea of how much potential for a major crash in values in real estate was there . It seems like they were figuring a 20% crash in values in bubble States ,where it’s going to be more like a 50% crash in values or more on foreclosures . Did Dodds figure in all the destruction of property that is taking place from all the so-called victim FB’s that are getting their revenge when they walk ? Is the government even considering that borrowers were sold on a Ponzi-Scheme ,that didn’t work out ?
When the new fashionable trend is to walk if you can’t make a buck off your house ,and borrowers are doing that instead of going for re-working loans, Congress /Senate needs to re-work their bail-out plans. Congress/Senate needs to come to terms with the fact that it was a housing mania and Ponzi-scheme that was riddled with fraud and faulty lending and homeowners would rather walk than be saved if their property isn’t going up in value .
I’m just saying there has to be a better way to resolve this nightmare than what is being proposed currently .
Citi sells bank to shore up its financing: Fire Sale starting
Citi to Sell German Retail Banking Operation to Credit Mutuel
Friday July 11, 2:59 am ET
DUSSELDORF, Germany & NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Citi announced today that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell Citibank Privatkunden AG & Co. KGaA, its German retail banking operation, and certain of its affiliates, to Credit Mutuel, the third largest retail banking group in France. Credit Mutuel will pay all-cash consideration of Euro 4.9 billion (US$ 7.7 billion) plus earnings accrued in 2008 through the closing. Citibank, one of Germany’s most efficient retail banks, generated post tax earnings in 2007 of Euro 365 million and at year-end 2007 had a net asset value of Euro 944 million, in each case based on German accounting principles. The sale is expected to close in the fourth quarter pending regulatory approvals.
The transaction is expected to result in an estimated after-tax gain of $4 billion to Citi upon closing. After giving effect to the proposed sale, Citi’s Tier 1 capital ratio would have increased by approximately 60 basis points as of March 31, 2008….
July 11 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are sound, have several options for capital and liquidity, and the “facts don’t warrant” the negative reaction by investors, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said.
“There is sort of a panic going on, and that is not what ought to be,” Dodd, a Democrat from Connecticut, said at a press conference in Washington today. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were never bottom feeders in the residential mortgage market.”
Dodd said options for the two largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies include using the Federal Reserve’s discount window. He said the Fed and the Treasury Department are considering a “number of options.”
so do you beleive this guy ? haha looks like many don’t
“…It’s necessary and urgent to set up buffer funds to confront big speculators and stabilize the mainland market, a senior official said. Jiang Lianhai, head of Jilin provincial securities regulatory bureau, published an article in Shanghai Securities News yesterday, which pointed to the necessities, functions and capital resources of launching a buffer fund. Later, an official from China Securities Regulatory Commission reiterated the view in an interview with China Daily.
In the article, titled “The capital market with Chinese characteristic calls for a buffer fund”, Jiang said that in recent years, international hot money has flooded into China’s stock market and real estate sectors. Some international speculators are planning to buy cheap stock when the market is sluggish and close out in a high price. “If the government does not have an effective tool in hand, it will be dangerous.” ….
China Daily
I love the last 2 sentences. I would not buy into a stock if I did not think I would make moneys. I recently bought a bit of the cheap stock and there are some really inexpensive stocks in China now.
July 11 (Bloomberg) — The dollar dropped to within a cent of the all-time low against the euro on concern the U.S. government may be forced to take over mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The metals stocks I snapped up at firesale prices the other day (mentioned in here that I was loading up the truck) have done nicely today. Say hello to the flight to quality.
By Steven Pearlstein
Friday, July 11, 2008; Page D01
“You know something’s up when both the secretary of the Treasury and the chairman of the Federal Reserve give speeches calling for a new mechanism to allow them to manage the orderly liquidation of a major financial institution.
You have a sense that things are getting desperate when General Motors has to offer six-year loans at zero-percent interest to unload its gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs, and people openly speculate about how long it will be before the automaker runs out of cash.
And you can feel the foundation shaking under Wall Street when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to pay three-quarters of a percentage point more to borrow money than the U.S. Treasury, which implicitly guarantees their debt, and top government officials feel compelled to reaffirm their support.
We’re nearing that delicate point in the cycle when even the usual cheerleaders have hung up their pompoms, consumer and business confidence has disappeared and investors are driven mostly by fear rather than greed….”
-borrow all the money you can to purchase silver.
-they aren’t making any more silver.
-buy now or be priced out forever.
-silver can only go up.
-everybody wants to own silver.
Seriously, haven’t we had enough practice spotting self-promoting Ponzi schemes on this blog?
I would trade/hold fresh steaming turds if I could get a better than average return. Have I made money in Gold and Silver? Hell yes. Much more than any blue chip position in the last 3 years.
The point is, I invest in whatever sector makes me a REAL return. I don’t care what it is, metals or otherwise.
Fantastic. Just make sure you use your psychic powers to get out when it peaks, because the laws of gravity apply to silver, just like they do to housing.
But to some of us who don’t own silver, you come across as a Ponzi player when you brag about your holdings on an economics blog and then exhort others to buy that commodity to the max. In my universe, that’s called a “conflict of interest”.
Yes its all MENTAL, when you take out the falling house values, the rising unemployment, the dismal stock market, the high cost of home heating oil, the high cost of food ad nasuem…
Published: July 11 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 11 2008 03:00
What might happen to the British housing market? After a week of dire news from specialised mortgage lenders and housebuilders, this is an obvious question. It also plays directly into the darkest obsessions of the British, for whom nothing is more important than that houses become ever more ludicrously expensive.
Certainly, houses became impressively costly between the middle of 1996 and the turn of this year. Over that period, real house prices rose by close to 190 per cent, according to the Financial Times index. A trend fitted to a series on real house prices that goes back to January 1971 was 30 per cent below the peak reached at the end of last year. In the third quarter of 2007, the ratio of average earnings to house prices peaked at just under six. This was almost double the ratio at the trough of 1995 and well above the previous peak of five reached in 1989.
After the biggest house-price boom in the UK’s history, can the country avoid the biggest ever bust?…”
“After the biggest house-price boom in the UK’s history, can the country avoid the biggest ever bust?
Fathom Consulting began a bulletin released yesterday by remarking sardonically that “as the UK housing market downturn gathers pace, it is common for analysts and commentators to argue that this downturn will not be as bad as the early 1990s . . . They are probably right. It looks [as though] it will be worse, perhaps far worse.”
——————————————————-
Wow!
Where is Neil? We need to get the popcorn machine cranked up!
Just want to report that AB Dada and I had an ad hoc Chicago HBB meet-up last night at a local watering hole. (Neither one of us remembered a camera, however.)
AB Dada is a nice and knowledgeable guy, and we found we had more in common than either of us probably expected. Heck, his little brother even lives in my neighborhood. We hung out, talked about commodities, real estate, fiat currencies, hamburgers — you know, stuff like that.
Definitely! Sorry no one else showed up, but it was VERY last minute. I’m going to plan the next one soon for a month from now or so, and will post early in a future Bit Bucket to figure out what is convenient for all. Since I have a car, I would be happy to provide transportation in one or both directions for those who need it.
Those jerks! I just got off the plane at 4pm and was stuck in traffic till 6pm, so I texted them to put up a sign at a table saying “HBB Party starts at 6.” Of course they didn’t, and when I arrived, they said NO ONE came in.
Next meetup I will provide my cell phone number so we can congregate properly. Sorry about that, stupid plane delays kill good plans!
I’m a bit of a history junkie, and watching events unfold in real-time, with the help of the internet, allows me to watch the carnage from far, far away…
We are witnessing an epochal event, a turning moment.
Very few can put such varied coloration in their posts and cover so many topics as you aladinsane. I have a specific question. For you, watcher, or anyone else who is interested. What is the outlook for GFI? Some time ago I read that they had the biggest reserves, plus ABX is a big copper company as well, which will get hurt in a slowdown, so I opted for GFI, and have been buying to average the cost down. Obviously, GFI is underperforming compare to my GLD and SLV. I was waiting for even lower prices to load up on more of all three, but I might have to wait more, or not even get my wishing prices. I started buying AU in the high 400’s.
From what I gather, approximently 40% of homeowners have their homes paid off, are free and clear. Probably most of these folks are old, maybe retired. It makes good business sense for banks to go after this huge pool of money. If I ran a bank that’s what I would do.
I have been asked to do some of these reverse mortgage valuations. It turns my stomach to talk to these older folks and I ain’t that far behind but in most cases it is a live or die situation.
There are few doing it for some money to throw around. It is for groceries. Most also have no family and figure they will use it while they have a chance to live a little. In most cases it is necessary and they have tried to sell their homes with no luck. Undoubtedly, this will enhance the foreclosure activity down the road as they are given only a 65% LTV. Once that is gone you are in jeopardy.
As always they think the market will be back. I suppose it is a reasonable approach when one can see the end of the road in the distance but just make sure you don’t outlive your equity.
It is an interesting concept in that there are several ways to get the dough, 1 lump sum, sucker play, monthly stipend, could make sense or a basic reserve fund, my guess, for sleeping purposes. God bless these folks being dragged into this hole at this time of life.
PS- they must go through an FHA counseling session to be made aware of the terms. If they are found to be incapable of understanding the magnitude of the situation the loan cannot be made. No exceptions.
Last night I dreamt I found a trapped kitten in an old oven.
i moved everything around to get to it.
When I put it in my hand it was the size of a mouse.
I like cats now.
I think the macroeconomic budget constraint may have really kicked in at this point. Would you prefer much higher dollar prices for FOREX plus gold and other commodities, or much lower stock prices?
The government officials said that the administration had also considered calling for legislation that would offer an explicit government guarantee on the $5 trillion of debt owned or guaranteed by the companies. But that is a far less attractive option, they said, because it would effectively double the size of the public debt.
I’m thinking that the United States is toast. It’s over for us. It’s funny that what killed us wasn’t Islamic Terrorists, but greedy house flippers.
I have a huge amount of contempt for my fellow Americans.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. consumers remain extremely pessimistic this month, according to a July consumer-sentiment survey.
The sentiment index from the University of Michigan and Reuters hit 56.6 in July, compared with 56.4 in June. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a July figure of 56.
June’s 56.4 was the lowest since 1980 and the third-lowest reading in the 56-year history of the survey.
“The bad news is that the expectations component, which leads spending, fell again for the sixth straight month, hitting a 28-year low of 48.3, down from 49.2,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “This is consistent, if sustained, with real consumption falling at a year-over-year pace in excess of 1%.”
This article was from last month, apologies if anyone else posted it already. From Harper’s. Made me feel slightly less crazy to see somebody else muttering the same heresies that have crossed my mind numerous times…
From testimony delivered March 12 before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Subcommittee on Interstate Commerce. Rowe is codirector of West Marin Commons, a community-organizing group, in California.
“Suppose that the head of a federal agency came before this committee and reported with pride that agency employees had burned 10 percent more calories at work last year than they did the year before. Not only that–they had spent 10 percent more money too. I have a feeling you would want to know more. What were these employees doing when they burned those calories? What did they spend that money on? Most important, what were the results? Expenditure is a means, not an end, and to assess the health of an agency, or system, you need to know what it has accomplished, not just how much motion it has generated and money it has spent. The point seems obvious, yet Congress ignores it every day when it talks about “the economy.” The administration and the media do it, too. Every time you say that “the economy” is up, or that you want to “stimulate” it, you are urging more expenditure and motion without regard to what that expenditure is and what it might accomplish, and without regard to what it might crowd out or displace in the process.
That term “the economy”: what it means, in practice, is the Gross Domestic Product–a big statistical pot that includes all the money spent in a given period of time. If the pot is bigger than it was the previous quarter, or year, then you cheer. If it isn’t bigger, or bigger enough, then you call Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke up here and ask him to do some explaining. The what of the economy makes no difference in these councils. It never seems to come up. The money in the big pot could be going to cancer treatments or casinos, violent video games or usurious credit-card rates. It could go toward the $9 billion or so that Americans spend on gas they burn while they sit in traffic, or the billion plus that goes to such drugs as Ritalin and Prozac that schools are stuffing into kids to keep them quiet in class. The money could be the $20 billion or so that Americans spend on divorce lawyers each year, or the $41 billion on pets, or the $5 billion on identity theft, or the billions more spent to repair property damage caused by environmental pollution. The money in the pot could betoken social and environmental breakdown–misery and distress of all kinds. It makes no difference. You don’t ask. All you want to know is the total amount, which is the GDP. So long as it is growing then everything is fine.”
The whole article is pretty good. I particularly liked this quote:
“By the standard of the GDP, the worst families in America are those that actually function as families–that cook their own meals, take walks after dinner, and talk together instead of just farming the kids out to the commercial culture. Cooking at home, talking with kids, walking instead of driving, involve less expenditure of money than do their commercial counterparts. Solid marriages involve less expenditure for counseling and divorce. Thus they are threats to the economy as portrayed in the GDP. By that standard, the best kids are the ones who eat the most junk food and exercise the least, because they will run up the biggest medical bills for obesity and diabetes.”
In honor of the DJIA slipping under 11k
_____________________________________________________________
Nigel Tufnel: The numbers all go to eleven. Look, right across the board, eleven, eleven, eleven and…
Marty DiBergi: Oh, I see. And most amps go up to ten?
Nigel Tufnel: Exactly.
Marty DiBergi: Does that mean it’s louder? Is it any louder?
Nigel Tufnel: Well, it’s one louder, isn’t it? It’s not ten. You see, most
blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You’re on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you’re on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?
Marty DiBergi: I don’t know.
Nigel Tufnel: Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?
Marty DiBergi: Put it up to eleven.
Nigel Tufnel: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.
Marty DiBergi: Why don’t you just make ten louder and make ten be the top number and make that a little louder?
Only a lad
You really cant blame him
Only a lad
Society made him
Only a lad
Hes our responsibility
Only a lad
He really couldnt help it
Only a lad
He didnt want to do it
Only a lad
Hes underprivileged and abused
Perhaps a little bit confused
Holy SMOKES! I just got a chance to look at the market (I’m outa the house) and it looks like today’s Walk was some potent stuff… Wonder if I can bottle this stuff? Maybe even put it into reverse…
“Hmmmm” JW mulls this suggestion over… It’s too radical an idea for his limited cognitive abilities and schema so he resets.
(besides, wouldn’t that be considered freakish :D)
Who knows what the hell would happen if you looked over your shoulder or stepped on any cracks.
It’s too risky, man.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Jwhite
2008-07-11 09:24:34
It could mean an end to the universe as we know… “With great power comes great responsibility…” I’m just going to have to accept that… Now! Let’s see if I can gold into LEAD!!!! (JW concentrates mumbling furiously under his breath)
I was thinking of doing it in oversize clown shoes to honor the late, great, Bozo. He was the only clown I wasn’t terrified of growing up. Emmett Kelly? A demon from hell as far as I was concerned…
They aren’t going down in IMO, they have a credit line to the Treasury that will just be increased as much as needed to get them whatever capital they need. They’re way off the lows of the morning.
I was having a frustrating day yesterday, and had to spend a lot of time driving in pretty heavy traffic. Then the radio played “Hello Eugene” by Pink Martini - and everything just got better…
“had to spend a lot of time driving in pretty heavy traffic”
i see the same here in bakersfield. i call bullsh!t on the gas prices being way to high! when the traffic thins out, then i might think about listening to the constant complainers
The government-chartered companies at times each lost more than 40 percent on growing speculation that a government bailout is needed. A collapse of the two financiers would cause further shock to the financial system, and trigger more losses to banks and brokerages with significant holdings of mortgage-backed securities.
The confluence of negative news offset a mostly positive quarterly report from General Electric Co. The conglomerate that owns everything from television network NBC to jet engine plants reported second-quarter profits that met analysts’ expectations. However, the outlook across its business lines was mixed.
well, it’s got me salivating.. so many of what looks like great deals out there.
Citi is near $16 although i told myself to wait till around $14 .. FNM and FRE .. Wachovia at around $11.
It’s a blue light special in the candy section… almost too tempting.
being on the outside, i’m only mildly interested in watching gold. What happens at $1,000/oz could be entertaining… i strongly suspect a repeat performance of the last time it got there.
the bright point to that article is the fact that the US will look less attractive to immigrants. hopefully they will choose other countries to migate, meaning less of a drain on our welfare system! which i personally feel that it is abused a way to often.
One thing perplexes me is that Schiff and Rogers refuse to acknowledge even slightly that foreign markets have, to a large extent, been driven by U.S. consumerism, and therefore are also set up for a fall. Certainly foreign markets - China, India, Russia, etc. are indeed obtaining their own momentum and will weather this downturn more than the U.S., nonetheless they will be extensively adversely affected. Oil demand will drop in China as their economy also sours. Their economy will sour because a vary high percentage of China’s income is manufacturing for U.S. companies. This income will be falling fast both due to U.S. economic fall and due to the weakness of the dollar vs. the Yuan. Same is true for India etc.
I think Schiff and Rogers are right in that the U.S. is losing its relative leadership role in the world economy, but they seem to act as if the U.S. and the rest of the world are completely decoupled from a production & demand standpoint, but completely tied from a commodities standpoint. Neither is true.
It’s a big pond and the ripples haven’t yet reached most foreign markets but they will and it will be a tsunami. Those foreign markets will get hit big time and suffer much worse the U.S. Not only do U.S. consumers drive the world economy but the U.S. also leads the world in innovation. Those foreign markets are merely inputs into the U.S. and when the U.S. suffers, they will suffer even more.
There will no change in economic leadership, the U.S. will reign for at least several more decades. There is not one country out there that wouldn’t switch economic places with the U.S. today or for many years to come.
Bombay Sensex is already down ~40% from january peak. hows that for 6 months? When I was in India in Jan, people were lining up for the Reliance Power IPO, the mood is quite different now I believe.
Love how CNBC is getting all over the ‘rumors’ floating about the street, but no one is standing up and clearly stating: THERE ARE RUMORS BECAUSE EVERYONE ON WALL STREET IS HIDING LOSSES AND PERFORMING OTHER ACCOUNTING SHENANIGANS.
If the firms such as Lehman actually had transparent books, they could then squash the rumors in no time….but they don’t.
Stocks have made a sharp climb on word that Fed Chairman Bernanke stated the discount window would be open for Fannie Mae (FNM 10.17, -3.03) and Freddie Mac (FRE 8.35, +0.35), according to Reuters. The word gave investors reassurance that capital is available if the companies should need it. Stocks are now at their best level of the session.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Freddie Mac chief Richard Syron that his company and Fannie Mae could take advantage of the emergency discount window, said a source familiar with a conversation between Bernanke and Freddie Mac chief Richard Syron.
Bernanke and Syron spoke by phone Thursday afternoon and in that call the central bank chief said he intended the discount window to be open to the two companies, said a source familiar with the phone conversation.
Does this open the U.S. housing market to direct PPT intervention? Maybe real estate prices will soon start always going up again? (Never mind all them vacant houses…)
Near the bottom, ‘Mr. Spengler concludes, “My advice to individual investors? Invest in some popcorn, because the next six months will be something to watch.”‘
IndyMac just failed! I got a WSJ alert in my mailbox:
_________________________________
NEWS ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal
July 11, 2008
IndyMac Bank, a prolific mortgage specialist that helped fuel the housing boom, was seized Friday by federal regulators in one of the largest bank
failures in U.S. history. The thrift was one of the largest savings and loans in the country, with about $32 billion in assets. It now joins an infamous list of collapsed banks, topped by Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Co., which failed in 1984 with $40 billion of assets. The bank will be run by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., a federal regulator, and will reopen Monday.
I no longer have any $$$ with them but I’ve had IndyMac CDs in the past. We’re scrupulous to stay below the FDIC maximum, and I’m glad we do. Banks are going to fall like dominoes.
And nobody will be punished except for us careful savers and hardworking Taxpayers.
Office of Thrift Supervision shuts down IndyMac
Friday July 11, 7:59 pm ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Office of Thrift Supervision steps in and closes IndyMac Bank; FDIC takes over operations
LOS ANGELES (AP) — IndyMac Bank’s assets were seized by federal regulators on Friday after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.
Calling all bond holders……snap shut the liquidty trap and invert the curve. uhhh, howz that thingy supposed to work? The long end gonna get outa hand, most likely a cap coming up. Short end going nothing but lower now.
Housing bubble gets wrapped up right quick, and we got a another bubble fixin to blow…cant say what it might be.
ppppffffftttt….the oily flatulence bubble. its ok cuz
its just gas.
you’ll have to excuse me as usuall, voz is in his cups.
“if you have money to deploy, follow your gut, we all have the things that are money. dont be scared of the oil, food, and metal….thats the currency move on the monkeys in the trenches turning wrenches. Short term US treasuries are going back to under 1%….and the long end is gonna get hammered, might even get capped……diversification from the dollar is important, and thus my holding of BWX….stellar performance today. Yen is gonna rally against the dollar, which shuts down the carry…..not investment advice, have a great weekend boyos.”
but I usually only tell my friends that stuff. Im just tryin to share.
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Mental health boutiques for all those stressed bankers…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ayIvmRwa4t6E&refer=home
Yep, Looks like a good many ‘captains’ of finance are nuts.
Mental health is a growing concern as the credit crunch adds to stress in the City of London, the U.K. capital’s financial district. The number of men in the City who sought help for depression and stress rose 47 percent from a year earlier in the past three months, according to British United Provident Association Ltd., the U.K.’s largest private health insurer.
Busy Summer
About 40,000 people in the U.K. financial industry will lose their jobs during the next three years, according to Experian Group Ltd, with London bearing the brunt.
About 40,000 people in the U.K. financial industry will lose their jobs during the next three years, according to Experian Group Ltd, with London bearing the brunt.
What about CEOs? Any word on trimming compensation packages for the top eschelon always seems to get sidestepped.
Maybe those 40,000 redundant financial services types will retrain into something useful & beneficial, like public health professions.
It sucks to learn you’re a mere mortal instead of superman.
RE: Mental health boutiques for all those stressed bankers…
Boo-hoo, cry me a river. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch
I remember all the arrogant pricks tellin’ me how sorry they were that there was “no appraisal work”, when they where shovelin’ it all to the form fillers and number hitter bucket shops.
As the sayin’ goes, what goes down comes around
A buddy of mine who was a stockbroker [before finding honest work] told me how some of those highly stressed executives sought relief. From their 5th-floor offices they’d heat quarters practically white-hot with cigarette lighters, then toss them to the homeless on the sidewalk below. The winos would scramble to grab their windfall, then howl when they burned their fingers, producing great guffaws of laughter from the watching suits.
What those financial sharks have been doing to their “clients” on Main Street America isn’t that much different.
Did you watch or read “American Psycho” - totally about it. But he knived the homeless instead. Christian Bale was amazing in that movie.
Didn’t, but will. Thanks for the recommendation.
England may have a class system, but at least the upper classes feel a sense of obligation to the less fortunate and don’t sneer at them like our Wall Street overlords do.
They ought to stop whining. They’re just having a mental recession.
Dow futures down 100 points… What’s up with THAT?
they heard you were going for a run instead of a walk
GE profit down- the market bellweather is off
should be another downer day for wall street
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/general-electric-earnings-drop-6/story.aspx?guid=%7B273B309C%2DAF84%2D4E94%2D9501%2D1D6A69E8C632%7D
Too bad they didn’t have the S&P 500 data for the high PE ratio based on last year’s earnings and low PE ratio for next years earnings in the WSJ today.
After all, earnings only go up!
Ha!! Took the words right out of my mouth.
I’m going early this morning too…
Oh, THAT’S what it is…..they knew you were getting an early start.
Somebody’s watching you, J……
SKF at 177…think or swim won’t let me borrow to short…wahhh.
Dow futures down 100 points… What’s up with THAT?
All the pre-market traders are in line at the NYC Apple Store, waiting for their iPhones.
Charlie Rangel rents 4 apts in the same building in nyc
way below market value
this guy is a turd
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25629176
Considering how much he has blathered about a draft in the past, yeah he’s a turd alright. He and his buddies love calling for sacrifice from the balconies/windows of their urban redoubts.
He called for a draft not because he seriously wanted one, but because he thought it would keep the United States from going into War unless there was overwhelming support from the people.
Even though I’m extremely pro-business and fiscally conservative, I have a soft-spot for a sincere, honest Liberal who’s committed to social justice
Charlie Rangel, sadly, isn’t one of them. He’s been a vocal supporter of confiscating more of my money to help specu-vestors and to keep house prices high, while renting 4 rent-stabilized apartments at bargain rates, including one he uses for his campaign office.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/11/nyregion/11rangel.html
According to the Times article, he’s doing this “despite state and city regulations that require rent-stabilized apartments to be used as a primary residence.
I’ve already written to my local congresswoman asking her to call for a censure. (She won’t, but it’s always amusing to see what keyword her auto-form-letter computer finds and what inappropriate response I get.)
I’m with you, Reuven. I can respect an honest leftie who has a genuine concern for social justice and looking out for the downtrodden in this country. However, most liberals are hypocrites to their core [think Ted Kennedy putting his kids in exclusive private schools while treating his constituents to the joys of forced busing]. Most are also morally bankrupt, like Rangel, the extortionist “Jes’ Me” Jackson, and the truly ghastly Chuckie Schumer. Or the vapid political dillitante Barak Obama.
His stated reason for supporting a draft is that the knowledge you (or your children) could be called to serve would give some of the people (with no skin in the game) currently supporting our current foreign policy misadventures pause. I don’t think he actually wants a draft, so much as wants people to recognize the risks that military servicemembers/families are currently facing.
Having a draft would be worth it just to see all those gender indetermined hipsters cry like babies…
Every time I go to Israel, I’m impressed by how mature and responsible the young people seem (well, except they all drive like maniacs!)
I think it’s because all of them–men, women–have to serve for 3 years after graduating college.
I’d love to see these kids of “generation iPod” being forced to serve their country for a few years.
(I meant to say “graduating high school”)
I’ve never served my country, because a person who loves freedom knows that freedom comes from serving yourself.
My country hasn’t served me in my 34 years. My country has taken my freedoms. My country has stolen from me. My country has boxed me in, slowed me down, cut off my hands and told me what I can put in my body or do in my home.
Serve my country? With a subpoena, maybe. Or a warrant for its arrest. No thanks.
Testify. The US was a beacon for liberty and human rights. That is being dismantled rather quickly, with the financial fraud, aggresive invasions of foriegn countries, spying at your homes, practising torture, etc. This most resent war on homeowners, proves the point, we are expecting the same gubmint that allowed this mess, to formulate a battle plan to win the war foreclosures.
To the Dadas : Go live in Iraq then. I don’t disagree that an erosion of original American ideals and principles of law is occurring that needs to be reversed, but the practice of active violations of human rights is nowhere near proportional to the sensational outcry you make. Instead of being chicken little, work in a reasoned controlled manner to restore what you believe is being decimated.
Maybe South America would be better for them. You would see your rights dwindle to zero. It seems no matter how much liberty or freedom we have, nobody is happy with it. Everyone has a different view point of liberty and freedom, which at one time meant the same thing. I want the freedom to own a handgun, you want to take that freedom away. You see how this works yet? You want the freedom to burn the American flag, I want to take that away. Are we getting somewhere?
I did my time in military immediately after graduating from High School. I can tell you the old sterotype that the military instills discipline and respect has been defunct for years in all the services, with the possible exception of the Marines. The one truly worthwhile experience is the comraderie you can develop [in the actual combat units, not the ash-and-trash support units that are disporportionately filled with the lowest sort of otherwise-unemployable scum].
In today’s military, young people will see a “leadership” comprised almost solely of self-serving careerists and ticket-punchers, most of whom couldn’t lead ants to a picnic. The true “leaders of men” and warriors get disillusioned and tend to leave after just a few years. The NCO corps is dominated by “lifers” who would probably be pizza deliverymen on the outside, few of whom inspire any confidence or respect from the troops. Far too many of the young people who join see the military as a job corps with rifles, and have little real attachment to it. The feminization of the military has been an unmitigated disaster in terms of unit cohestion and military discipline and effectiveness.
The Marines alone still retain a residual sense of discipline, standards, and espirit de corps, and have far fewer charlatans in leadership positions than their sister services. The Special Operations Forces are also a great place for tough, dedicated, intelligent warriors capable of initiative and independent thought. Otherwise, political correctness and social engineering schemes have turned our once-formidable military into a friend for the friendless, a home for the homeless, and a garden for the vegetables that make it a career.
Oh, come on - Rangel is full of it. Does anyone here REALLY think that the children of the kleptocrats would be sent to some distant battlefield to die? Of course not! They would find some way to avoid the draft or be sent to some meaningless post safe from any harm while no doubt receiving rewards for their “courage.”
Draft? My dad, who served in the Pacific in World War II was against the draft when I was a teen in the 1970s, and continued to oppose the draft. See, he was blind as the result of WWII.
I remember when I was a kid I participated in a “cowboys and indians” toy gun battle at my friend’s house. I think a lot of people volunteer to join the military (my father did) because they had no relatives come back disabled. When my dad came back disabled, his views changed. War is hell. He talked very little about it. In fact I asked him once if he ever killed anyone in the war. His response was “never ask me that question again.” That was it and he never answered my question.
Sometimes I come across people on boards like this who have served and they insult me without knowing about my father and his views. Disability is not fun, especially when it happens when you are in your 20s, like it happened to my father!
My father was no economic liberal though, and a Reagan Republican. My father passed away in 2000. I had no better friend.
Oil back to $145 bbl
I wonder if evangs will buy gasoline when it gets to $6.66, soon?
FBs now stealing from their children
Credit Crunch hits pocket money
I think folks will buy gas up to about $10.00 a gallon, then it’s down hill from there. I do think that gas prices will drop for a while then head back up though. Lots of folk are really cutting back on their purchases here. Translates to a couple points drop in consumption I’m sure.
You must live amongst sensible folks then, because around here the traffic hasn’t eased one bit. Lots of wasteful driving too - racing between stop lights and speed bumps. Well, at least they don’t bother with the stop signs - I guess that helps?!?!?
The poor driving habits do allow this casual observer a peek into the mounting desparation amongst the hamsters.
traffic in the greater ny area is till pretty damn bad
but i do so alot more 2 and 3 passengers in cars
but you still see the 21 year old driving a suburban
by himself with apparently no real destination
went to Jfk airport last night and it took me 30 mins to exit the British Airways terminal and get onto the van wyck exprwy (any non-nyers who watch Seinfeld can remember Elaine trying to beat the Van wyck-not many do)
Heheh, I think these folks would LOVE to be wasting gas (so many around here do with 75mph speeds and humungous 4x’s on narrow roads). I think it’s more a function of low income. BillyBob only earns about 20k a year - divide that among his truck payment, boat payment, ATV payment, hunting club dues, sporting licenses, credit cards, insurance, gas for all, etc - It’s getting pretty tight for him (yes, many live on the family patch for free though)…
I was reading about the Van Wyck this past weekend. A book called “Naked Airport” - gets into the development of Idlewild/J.F.K.
The scary part was they knew the roadways weren’t up to task on the day they opened it. The airport initially had palatial gardens too - they lasted about year before becoming a parking lot.
I’ve been riding my bike to work more, thank God I never was interested in living out of town. Anyway it’s not like I’m saving a lot of money, but it’s nice to just leave the thing in the garage and have to fill it every 2 weeks instead of every one week.
Lotta amateur cyclists out there now though. There ought to be a license test for riding in traffic because most these turkeys don’t know how.
This many not be a revalation, but I have been seeing more motorists stranded on the side of the road. Out of gas. Pouring the liquid into their trucks/SUVs with EPA-approved plastic tanks designed for… lawnmowers.
Is there an EPA-approved gas can for automobiles?? I don’t know if I’ve seen one lately.
Forget gasoline. What about heating oil?
Maybe we can all move to California and Florida before winter hits. Buy now before they run out of land…
NSO,
Depends on what part of CA you want to live in before winter hits.
We welcome you, just bring your own water because we are in the midst of an epic drought.
$10 a gallon? I’d like to think I make a decent wage, but if it gets to $6 a gallon then I’m taking the bus. There is no way I could make my commute (25-30 miles one way) on $10 a gallon. I’d be in my boss’s office begging to work from home or at the very least go to a 4 day work week. Heck I’m close to doing that now.
I think if/when gas reaches $5 a gallon you will start to see drastic changes.
$10/gal may be high, but as long as it is available I believe it will be consumed but not necessarily by Americans. It’s a great big world out there with lots of money for consumption. Let’s talk further if/when we get to price increases caused by shortage of supply. That’s when the fireworks really begin.
I’d be in my boss’s office begging to work from home or at the very least go to a 4 day work week
For years we worked 4/10 week. Was able to spend more time with the family .I think the country should mandate it a automatic 20% reduction in gas use.
The US economy will be totally trashed before gas gets to $10.00/gallon.
At 10 bucks a gallon, it will make a lot more sense for people to quit work and stay home, if they are only making minimum wage or a little better. Which will be just as well, because businesses will be laying off people right and left anyway.
The gas-saving measures pushed by some on this blog won’t work for me, or a lot of other people…….I’m “on call” 24/7/365, public transportation doesn’t work for me, even if we had it around here. A motorcycle might work (if I had a death wish) but a bike won’t……..ever tried pedaling a bike any distance against a 30mph wind in 100 degree weather? About all I can do is rent a place closer to work (which I did in March).
There are some cheerleaders for an economic Chernobyl on this blog, the rationale being “when it is over, we will pick up the pieces, and be better for it” This only works if the PTB are smart enough to learn the lessons, and do what needs to be done, instead of covering the ass of their buddies/campaign contributors.
I personally think that a total economic collapse of this country will lead to a mountain of unintended consequences, worldwide.
Someone who survived the Depression (I can’t remember where I read it) said, “I don’t feel like I am a better person for surviving the Depression. All the Depression did was teach people basic survival instincts at an early age”.
Socrates11: $10 a gallon? I’d like to think I make a decent wage, but if it gets to $6 a gallon then I’m taking the bus. There is no way I could make my commute (25-30 miles one way) on $10 a gallon.
Where I’m located, the cost of driving (leaving out the cost of owning a car, if you live in the burbs and need one just to get groceries) 25-30 miles in a Ford Taurus - assuming non-toll roads - is 1/2 the cost of taking the bus. If gasoline prices go up, bus fares will go up in tandem.
Likely not - increased ridership should cut cost per passenger.
My guess is will see $2. per gallon again 3-5 years out…
Is that in Nuevo Dollars?
Good Come Back…:)
6.66 9/10
Will there be prayer vigils against the demon distillate when it reaches $6.66?
Lord, I hope so.
I love a good anti-Satan protest.
And then I can dig out all my old Slayer records for “balance.”
Will there be prayer vigils against the demon distillate when it reaches $6.66
Forget prayer vigils, before long, these so called “Christian’s”, will be practicing the Sacrifice Virgins Before the Altar of the Pump to get their fair share of gas rations
If you think about it…
Oil really is “Manna from Hades”
Christians are already praying at a pump. News at 6.
Lol, cute.
I didn’t think about any driving changes at $3, but $4 did the trick.
The Kiss of Death…
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Bush administration is preparing a plan in case the unthinkable happens: What if mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were to fail, thus requiring a massive taxpayer bailout to keep mortgage lending from completely collapsing?
Not to worry, though. “The government doesn’t expect the entities to fail and no rescue plan is imminent,” the Journal reported, citing “people” who seem to know a lot.
Is there any surer sign of an impending disaster than a reassurance from the White House that it doesn’t expect it to happen?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/kiss-death-fannie-freddie-white/story.aspx?guid={81C67604-B78A-4BC4-A9A2-A2C58C59B509}
“The government doesn’t expect the entities to fail and no rescue plan is imminent,”
So why bother?? That don’t smell right.
On Minyanville, it is thought that “the US government will not explicitly guarantee the debt of Fannie and Freddie but rather, will either inject capital (super senior preferred stock subordinated debt a la a Continental Illinois style bailout) or provide a “make whole” guaranty on the assets of both companies (a la a FDIC/RTC style failing bank resolution). The choice of the former implies a “going concern” for the GSEs while the latter suggests an orderly winddown . . . and either choice implies that the common stock of both companies is worthless.
There is more analysis but I do not have time to retype it.
Well, it’s Minyanville, what do you expect? Talk about nutcases…
Here it is in full. I don’t get the nutcases comment but whatever . . .
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Freddie-fannie-fnm-fre-government-wamu/index/a/17972
‘I don’t get the nutcases comment but whatever’
I’ll tell you. I had to ban one of their writers from posting here because of the deranged attacks on openly female posters. Mostly against you, BTW. But always on women.
Was it Jeff Macke? : )
Don’t ban me, dude……
Don’t tase me bro
Any step the gov’t takes to prop up the GSE’s is a bailout, it won’t matter what they call it or how they present it. Either way, the dollar is toast.
GSE or GSE shareholders? There is a big difference.
I think we have already witnessed a little taste of what is going to happen to shareholders, who cares about them?
If the GSE’s are publically backstopped in any manner, the gig is up for the dollar. What happens to the shares is irrelevant with regard to dollar issues. They may go back up for all I know.
The PTB is going to try and thread the needle with how they present any backstopping. I personally don’t think they will be successful in keeping that dollar neutral. Just my opinion.
Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae are both part of the S&P 500, so those who have interest in an S&P500 index fund are also shareholders. Glad I got out last year.
When they say they don’t expect such-and-such to happen and no rescue plan is imminent, there is a fair chance such-and-such is already underway.
True. Talk means significant possibility. They will never, nor should they, encourage a run on the applicable entities.
“Loose lips sink ships.”
I believe it is called a “trial balloon.”
I wonder who is watching fog roll in over the hills?
Tom my man,
So far no fog. Just cooler temperatures. Yeah!!! I’m just not a hot weather friend.
Tom,
What part of the country do you live?
I’m in FL. One of the ground zero’s for this whole mess. I swear I wasn’t involved.
Hit me up on AIM if you want… If you have AIM…
MrHousingBubble is the SN.
As soon as they mentioned they were thinking about the plan the run started. FNM and FRE will open down 30+% this morning.
Or even 40%+
Darn near 50%, I was giving a little room for the specialists to decide the pre-market was crazy =).
‘As soon as they mentioned they were thinking about the plan the run started. FNM and FRE will open down 30+% this morning.’
“Paging Kevin Bacon.”
No rumor is true until it is officially denied.
When folks, including me, suggested that the Government would spend more $$$ bailing out failed specu-vestors and housefloppers than it spent in the Iraq war, nobody believed it.
Now it looks very likely.
The problem with these stocks is they were a significant part of many broad-market index funds. The “government backing” made them seem like a safe bet.
US Credit Card debt alone exceeds 1 Trillion! It’s astounding that during a war–no matter what your opinion on it–people responded by spending more money they don’t have on Chinese crap. They may stick a Chinese made “I support my Troops” yellow ribbon on their foreign SUV, but how many have donated to the USO?
RE: The problem with these stocks is they were a significant part of many broad-market index funds. The “government backing” made them seem like a safe bet.
For a number of years I was regular to an investor’s website forum called “Raging Bull”.
While my focus was primarily on Harley-Davidson and XOM, occasionally, I would drift over to the Fannie Mae
commentary section and fire a few salvo’s about what
a corrupt mess the mortgage biz was, and how FNMA was gonna get their azz kicked because of their aloofness from the corruption at the bottom.
Man, I sure wish I had access to the posts attacking me.
On former long tenured auditor, said the company’s financial conditions were “absolutely sterling”; as demonstrated by the massive stock holding by public employee pension funds, et., el.; and there was complete and absolute due diligence in the oversight of portfolio quality, and that I was nothing more than a rabble rousing bum with no understanding of the internal operations of the company.
LMAO…Kiss my azz FNMA.
5 trillion in debt would have to be assumed by the US treasury.
5 Trillion.
Just to get some perspective on how big that number is, US Tax revenue in 2006 was 2.4 trillion..
5 trillion in debt would have to be assumed by the US treasury.
5 Trillion.
Just to get some perspective on how big that number is, US Tax revenue in 2006 was 2.4 trillion
That’s just PART of the new US “Ownership Society”…and Baby are WE ever gonna OWN it
Well gee ,golly,whizz..who woulda’ thought this would happen to these guys…Raines escaped out the back exit in 2004 with his 100k/month retirement…shortly after they found everyone was juicing he numbers and loans. Failing to file their numbers for another few years, while every Mtg broker was pushing off their packages of dead fish to them…who would have thought??
I worked for a firm once, and we did physical foreign exchange trading, and had a Black-American trader, who knew a little more than nothing, but how we basked in the spirits of all inclusiveness…
Until they had to fire him for gross incompetence.
Uhhh, how is the race card relevant here?
Don’t forget that plenty of white Americans who are grossly incompetent get jobs all the time. It’s called nepotism. Ask Dubya.
Obama was a Friend Of James Johnson, who got special deals from Country Wide. Among the others who got special CW mortgage deals were Franklin Raines!
He, apparently, was a Clinton person:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121279970984353933.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
(Subscription may be required. I can’t tell if others can see this link or not…)
“Uhhh, how is the race card relevant here?”
I knew he was incompetent from day one. He told me “that 1% of a 100 was a Dollar, and it didn’t mater how many hundreds it was, if it was 400, it was still one Dollar”
Imagine a black Dan Quayle trying to talk financial matters?
He somehow lasted another 6 months, and had he have been a white guy, he would have been shown the door, but having a black foreign-exchange trader is as sexy as having a black chief of police, in our world not so much based upon merit, as looks.
“had he have been a white guy, he would have been shown the door…”
Maybe. But with all due respect, your generalizations suck.
I’ve met plenty of whites who got ahead in life because of nepotism who should have never gotten in the door to begin with.
I work for a huge company full of incompetent people (of all colors) who somehow still have jobs.
Aladinsane is just trying to find an acceptable rationale for his racism.
“and had a Black-American trader”
Whoaaaa….
You just blew your (ample) credibility with me. That was soooo an unnecessary comment.
Maybe he was someone’s brother-in-law.
RE: Black American trader remarks
I agree = credibility totally shot on that one. Whic is a shame. Incompetence is color blind, sir.
We’ve been all trained to look for anything that vaguely smells of racism, and if there is the faintest odor of it, we must condemn first and ask the real questions later (probably never), as per what we’ve become, as a society.
“We’ve been all trained to look for anything that vaguely smells of racism, and if there is the faintest odor of it, we must condemn first and ask the real questions later (probably never), as per what we’ve become, as a society.”
I call this type of response as the power of mind over matter. I first applied thgis description to my wife (now ex-wife).
For some people:
When the mind is made up, facts no longer matter.
i agree with you 100% on that one. next time you tell a story about a white person make sure you refer to him/her as a white-american and lets see how many people jump on you.
Don’t forget that plenty of white Americans who are grossly incompetent get jobs all the time. It’s called nepotism. Ask Dubya.
I have to say, I liked Dave Chappell’s “President Black Bush” character better than the dimwitted original. [Warning: Chappell uses the N-word a lot.]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqXnsSJ_53w
Thanks, Sammy. My sons talk about that bit all the time but I never got to see it.
Do you mean we’ll all be renting from the government instead of the Chinese?
Do you mean we’ll all be renting from the government instead of the Chinese?
Well, technically it will just be a sort of sub-lease as the Chinese will own the gov.
LOL
we’ll all be renting from the government We’ve always been renting from the government, what’s new about that?
And the government would absorb $4.9 trillion in assets (today) the assets would likely fall in value but not all the way to 0.
People seem to miss that point. It’s not a $5T problem, but it could be a $500B problem.
Yes the stock can go to zero, but most of the loans they hold are prime, 20% down, fixed rate deals. They may lose some value, but will hold up as well as 99.99% of the portfolio’s out there. You have to separate out people not wanting to own the stock with the rest of the issue(s).
It’s Ok! BHO will just raise the marginal rate for the 15% of the people who pay the majority of the taxes to 99%! That’ll cover it.
taxes to 99% ??
Take this job and shove it…
I’d like to see the marginal rate for the top 1% raised to 90%. That’s the tax rate we had in the fifties and the country was very prosperous, with a growth rate that exceeded today’s rates.
A lot of the trouble this country faces is due to a few people who have way too much money - it destabilizes our economy.
it destabilizes our democracy
Yes, but you do realize that back in the day when marginal rates were that high, there were a huge number of (legal) tax loopholes and nobody really paid that amount. This was pre-AMT.
So it’s not quite honest to say that the marginal rates used to be higher. There were in theory, but not in practice.
What destabilizes our democracy is the fact that the MAJORITY of Americans pay little or now taxes. The bottom 50% of taxpayers only contribute 3%.
Reuven, the reason the bottom 50% only contribute 3% in taxes is due to the fact that as of 2001, the bottom 80% in this country owned only 16% of all privately held wealth. The top 1% owned 40%. Lord only knows how much wider that gap has gotten in the last 7 years.
The inequality in wealth distribution in this supposed democracy is flat out immoral.
haha, keep arguing about taxes, it is quite amusing. The greenback devalued by 40% over the last 5 years. how’s that for f’ing tax?
I don’t disagree! That’s why the minority of my savings is in US Equities!
There’s another tax, too: artificially low interest rates. Another way to force savers to subsidize houseflippers
yeah, lets start a couple of more wars and give a couple of trillion more in tax breaks, bail out a few more banks, lets just put the dollar out of its misery.
The Bubble Bust is rattling the “In the House we Trust” mentality Big Time
Milwaukee-based MGIC is the country’s largest insurer of mortgages. People who put down less than 20% of a home’s selling price when they buy it often must get mortgage insurance, which covers some of the lender’s costs if foreclosure occurs. Home foreclosure filings were 53% higher in June when compared with the same time last year
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=771306
And Wisconsin Bank regulators say NO to Marine Bank’s attempt to schuffle cash to parent company in Illinois for what else but…BAD LOANS.
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=771293
No problem though..because IT’S different HERE
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=771293
During the days of the Soviet Union it was very important to be able to decode the statements in the Soviet press in order to know what was going on.
The joke was that a Soviet leader could survive bullets, cancer, coups and flood, but if the press reported that they had the sniffles it meant that they were already dead and the power elite was locked in a death struggle to see who would replace them.
These days those same skills are needed with our own press. When the press reports that there are no plans to rescue a financial firm it means that the plans are already in place and they’re just waiting for the right time to announce them.
When the press reports that there are no plans to rescue a financial firm it means that the plans are already in place and they’re just waiting for the right time to announce them. It is FRIDAY , after all!
I thought that yesterday the White House was saying they didn’t “expect” the GSEs to fail? Barry Ritzholtz humorously pointed out that Bush expecting things not to happen is nearly a perfect contrary indicator.
WASHINGTON — Alarmed by the growing financial stress at the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, senior Bush administration officials are considering a plan to have the government take over one or both of the companies and place them in a conservatorship if their problems worsen, people briefed about the plan said on Thursday.
Under a conservatorship, the shares of Fannie and Freddie would be worth little or nothing, and any losses on mortgages they own or guarantee — which could be staggering — would be paid by taxpayers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/11/business/11fannie.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
I keep seeing the word ‘crisis’ all across the news. I must be disconnected because I don’t see it as a crisis…
Capitalism’s Reality Check…The biggest political story of 2008 is getting little coverage. It involves the collapse of assumptions that have dominated our economic debate for three decades.
Since the Reagan years, free-market cliches have passed for sophisticated economic analysis. But in the current crisis, these ideas are falling, one by one, as even conservatives recognize that capitalism is ailing.
You know the talking points: Regulation is the problem and deregulation is the solution. The distribution of income and wealth doesn’t matter. Providing incentives for the investors of capital to “grow the pie” is the only policy that counts. Free trade produces well-distributed economic growth, and any dissent from this orthodoxy is “protectionism.”
The old script is in rewrite. “We are in a worldwide crisis now because of excessive deregulation,” Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071002264.html
I was going to take today off as I did yesterday but I think you might get the washout today and I’m ready to get completely long.
what do you think is reasonable entry point on the s&p?
so many stocks are half or less then what they were not too long ago.
suddenly my 3.5% return on my 401k looks pretty nice
when those 2nd qtr statements go out many will be unhappy
i eevn have the old biddies at the express bus stop in the morning talking oil prices and the “terrible” economy
joe & jane 6 pack see the writing on the wall
1175 was support in 2004
I just know that we’re seeing a LTCM style panic here and those are times to be buying, not selling.
I told my wife last night that through the lens of the rear-view mirror, this week may look much like Black Monday week in 1987, though without the highly-reported one-day 20 pct drop in the DJIA. It sure feels like that week!
DJIA = Maginot Line
Just MHO - we may have an upcoming support level, but I think it will be temporary, like on the order of a few months perhaps. Long term (over the next 2-3 years) I think we still have quite a ways to go down. The fundamentals of the economy are eroding before our eyes - the one thing propping it up - housing - is now gone. Being that prices are still too high by about 60% nationwide, I don’t think housing will propping up the economy again anytime soon. We have to work down to the true economic fundamental base before we see *real* long-term support. IMO we haven’t really been on that base since about the mid 80’s; or perhaps we were close to it in the mid 90’s.
From a market numbers perspective I think the true base that we’re working towards, though may actually overshoot, is about 800 on the S&P and about 6,000 on the Dow. This is based loosely on the mid-80’s levels, plus a reasonable amount of growth. Certainly (if we get down to those levels) there will be bargains to be had before then, but overall the markets won’t be a good place to be until then on the long side.
Perhaps some other bubble will come along and artificially prop us up again and prove me wrong though. Commodities isn’t going to be it. Except maybe popcorn.
Housing was only fueling the growth in the economy, not the economy as a whole. And yes, many will be looking for the next bubble to return us to high growth rates, but what is really necessary is for the US to learn how to exist with moderate (1-2%) growth. Americans are, largely, a greedy, ravenous sect; it’s going to be painful for most of us to adapt to the simple life.
IMHO the time to be selling was 6 months ago, and the time to be buying is still a few months off.
But then again, I don’t trade regularly. So I look at things much differently.
If we hit 1200, I would be tempted to put a big chunk in waiting for a pop. Another course of action I am considering is taking 5% my 401k money that I switched into the conservative options my plan offers back into more aggressive models each month. Whatever happens on Wall Street should come to a head in less than 20 months. You wont capture the low, but you wont be stuck at a peak either.
I am interviewing three financial advisors.
I hope to be ready when the bottom is in.
I’m like, take my $ please!
My new state sponsored computer is on it’s way.
Thanks U.S.
The ^VIX is increasing back to when we hit other bottoms. You just might be right.
Capitulation, at long last?
Or, perhaps you are talking short term. Prolly that. Apologies, since I have only been posting here a couple months and struggle with some nuances of the regulars.
Thanks.
capitalist ? not since 1913
That is so silly. Having spent some time in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe before that house of cards collapsed, I can assure you that shopping and paying for things with money the way we do here is very much unlike standing in lines for random goods or writing letters to the Politboro or local Soviet hoping for choice assignments. Pointed political interjections that might chafe with current policies aren’t tolerated in such environments either. Show me where the Fed prevented people from making investments or trading with each other.
Hey you forgot the best one
“Deficits don’t matter” Dick Cheney
Here’s why oil spiked.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWHx5JZnCOKw&refer=home
I read that Nigeria’s total output is less than the margin of error when calculating worldwide supply.. and yet when some militia destroys (or even threatens to destroy) a pipeline or something in Nigeria, oil price rises.
Irrational fear is not usually accepted as a fundamental market factor, afaik.
Yep….
Vice President Dodd? Yeah, that’s change you can believe in.
Posted at 12:59am on Jul. 11, 2008
Obama/… DODD?
Clearly, I am in some sort of benevolent version of the Truman Show.
By Moe Lane
It’s like this entire election season was created to make me laugh like a loon on a regular basis.
Obama seeks info on Dodd in vice president search
By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer 57 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - Barack Obama’s presidential campaign has requested information from Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd as part of its search for a possible vice presidential candidate.
The former White House hopeful and Connecticut lawmaker indicated Wednesday that he has been approached by the campaign. “There’s been some inquiries, yeah,” Dodd said. “They ask for a lot of stuff. I’ll leave it there.”
Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton and Dodd’s Senate office declined comment Thursday.
Probably wise of both. Free hint to the Obama campaign: when the AP, on looking over a potential VP candidate’s recent history, decides to go with the “may be implicated in mortgage kickback scandal” bit over the “sorta-kinda fought to derail the FISA bill” bit… yeah, maybe this was a bit of a time-waster for you. But don’t let me stop you from picking the man. All I ask is that you wait for my air-popper to finish the latest bowl of popcorn.
Because you can’t put BACON SALT* on microwave popcorn, of course.
Moe Lane
*It’s even kosher! No, really.
As opposed to VP Romney? Don’t blame me, I voted for Ron Paul.
I was thinking VP Huckabee. Ask Jesse…them Reverend credentials can give you expertise in just about anything.
Bobby Jindal would be a better possibility for (R). I can’t imagine a northeasterner working out on either ticket.
I can’t imagine a northeasterner working out on either ticket.
I think your instincts are right for both camps.
A good VP pick always adds the potential to pick up voters, covers deficiencies at the top of the ticket (real or perceived) — and sometimes provides an attack dog for the campaign.
VP Huckabee ??
Nope…It will be Romney…200 mil + net worth is a nice piggy bank to tap and Romney will do it because he will speculate that grandpa McCain can’t make a 8 year run…
I saw Ran Paul on TV for the first time yesterday answering question about the fed etc. He is right on the mark about things. I tell ya, that guy should run for president.
My bet is that Obama will pick Hillary for VP.
“I tell ya, that guy should run for president.”
Humor, or is your last name really VanWinkle??
Ask Ron Paul what he thinks about 9/11. After the first incoherent sentence, the rest is unimportant. The guy may be a great doctor, but he’s still a loon. Maybe he has a UFO landing dock in his back yard. Someone should check.
Incredulous, why are you spreading crap and name-calling? The primaries are over. Find a new gig.
I was reponding to Mr. Vincent’s facetious comment, quoted below:
“I saw Ran Paul on TV for the first time yesterday answering question about the fed etc. He is right on the mark about things. I tell ya, that guy should run for president.”
I can crack on Ron Paul, if he can keep popping up on television babbling 9/11 nonsense. You’d think someone who thought he could be president would at least spend an hour on intelligent research, rather than arriving at a conclusion based on a fake documentary (”Loose Change”), reciting conspiracy talking points. Pandering to an 18-21 year-old audience not known for its wisdom is kind of laughable, considering the guy is what, two, three million years old?
Amen.
You are like the best day-trading milk cow ever, producing 16 gallons a day, day in and day out…
But you tend to spill around 15 of those gallons on the floor every day, when you turn into a ridiculous political hack and post much ado about nothings, like your latest effort.
Somebody needs to lighten up a little.
Lad, you’re coming to the defense of CHRIS DODD?!!
Bill in Carolina:
Dodd’s a pile of a human being, but i’ve always believed in negotiation (even if nothing comes of it), and most wars in history happen when both sides think the worst of one another, without going to the effort of learning what makes each other tick.
You are right, we should have learned what made them good NAZI folks tick. Wait a minute they were ticks!!
Deep down, Mao really was a nice guy too. It’s a shame we didn’t understand his true feelings. Obviously it’s our fault.
Didn’t we negotiate with some feller named Mao, once upon a time back in the days of ping pong diplomacy?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ping_Pong_Diplomacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Nixon_Mao_1972-02-29.png
Blano is only pawn in game of life…
The US supported Mao during WWII when we were both fighting the Japanese.
Did the same with Ho Chi Minh.
I just wonder some times how much history might have changed if, instead of taking the Black or white/Cold War view of things, the PTB at the time had spent some time studying what motivated Mao and (especially) Ho Chi Minh.
You know alad most of the time I find your posts interesting and thought provoking as I do with a lot of the other posters here. However, when the name calling starts it just makes you and other posters that result to name calling look small, not intelligent or thinking outside the box.
result=resort
At least Ms. Chick knows a winner when she sees one. Keep your eyes on the ball, as this is going to be a fun game.
Heheh, it’s come down to this for mortgage brokers - read the second question down…
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/forged-title-transfer-crime-even/story.aspx?guid=%7BB4CE0FF6%2DB044%2D4353%2DA80A%2DD13F000E7E87%7D
“I am a national mortgage banker who funds 150 to 200 loans a month. However, we have lost our ability to fund high-balance loans above $729,000 due to the lack of liquidity in the credit markets. Deutsche Bank used to have a correspondent division but they, too, have left the market except for their private-banking division. Would you know of any institutions that are purchasing high quality mortgages?”
The simple solution would be to get the sellers to all drop their prices below $729,000.
It would have been funnier if the journal suggested going on Oprah to see if he could find some lenders.
I would contend that less than 2% of all US homebuyers can afford anything in the 700K area using sensible, real world metrics. This shouldn’t even be a topic of discussion.
Don’t you realize that the GSE cap on “affordable housing” has been raised to $729K in “expensive coastal areas”?
Yes, think of all of those poor San Franciscans who would be homeless if they couldn’t get 700K mortgages. Oh, the humanity!
The 1-2% of people who can afford those houses don’t need mortgages.
Wait a minute, 25% of new houses are meant to be sold at or above that price level?
Looks like discount time.
TxChik
What most people forget $400K would be a 30-40 year old starter Single Family home in Greenwich CT, or Scarsdale NY , back in 1999….
Don’t forget a fact mentioned in a post above (not being disputed here) that 1% in the US already own 40% of US things. Maybe they aren’t interested in buying more right now.
All this whining about no one willing to take “high quality loans” off their hands. Gee, that liquidity shortage is annoying
If the loans are such “high quality”, why do they want to sell them?
Imagining that fannie and freddie shares go to 1 penny and the Gov’t steps in.
Why does the gov’t step in to save bond holders but not shareholders? From someone who holds no shares or bonds, why do I care if the govt saves bond holders vs. shareholders? To me, they’re both investors who made bad decisions. Pension funds hold both bonds and shares, 401ks have exposure to both?
I realize the agency bonds far outweigh the shares in terms of value, but to someone from the outside, the difference between the two seems arbitrary.
[This is in no way an endorsement to save shareholders.]
If the bond holders loose their capital, no one will buy fannie or freddie bonds for a very long time (or ever) - result? No mortgage lending except from banks’ nonexistent capital reserves. Housing sales stop.
If the share holders loose their money, then investors made a bad investment and paid for a bad decision.
Not if you privatize the gains and socialize the losses.
Brilliant! How can I contribute to your campaign?
“If the bond holders loose their capital, no one will buy fannie or freddie bonds for a very long time (or ever) - result? No mortgage lending except from banks’ nonexistent capital reserves. Housing sales stop.”
Why not just lower house prices to where people can afford to pay cash? I mean, bank credit is really an optional thing, when you think about it. Life would still go on without banks. People could use prosper.com or something.
And please, it’s lose, not loose. Loose rhymes with moose, lose rhymes with fuse.
the common stock of both is worthless. let’s just stipulate to that.
What is the basis for considering them worthless? I’m curious about sudden publicity rush about the GSEs and what may be behind it. They’ve raised billions week after week. Why wasn’t it considered a problem when they pleaded guilty to billions in fraud, years ago?
Just yesterday I posted an article with a 20 YO buy a $300k place in Seattle. Mortgage money must not be very tight. And what is wrong with it getting a little harder to get a housing loan in light of the biggest housing bust in history? Is what we are seeing simply a rational reaction to events?
Exactly. This GSE thing has been a puzzlement to me. “Suddenly”, there’s a problem.
“Suddenly there is a problem.”
Isn’t this the way it always is? Few financial problems happen suddenly, it’s only their “discovery” that suddenly happens and causes the chaos.
“You roll back the stones, and you find slithering things.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Ha, I have a long time friend like this. He quits his job and lives on savings for a while. One day he is like OMG, I have a 3 day notice on my rent and have no money to pay, like it suddenly happened to him?
It’s not suddenly there is a problem
It’s suddenly there is a problem that’s too big to sweep under the rug.
I think that they guarantee something like $1.5 Trillion in bonds. So they just need a small percentage of those bonds to go bad and they are technically insolvent.
I’ve been saying for years, as far back as 2003, that these 2 enties were in trouble. They’ve been cooking the books for years. I say let them fail. What’s all this bull about they’re “Too big to fail”. Nonsense. The bigger you are the harder you fall.
The guys running these entities are CROOKS and should be put in jail.
I hear a reggae song in there somewhere.
“Why wasn’t it considered a problem when they pleaded guilty to billions in fraud, years ago?”
Real estate always went up back then.
I think the collective realization of how extreme the home price declines are may have finally permeated the thick skulls of bovines who live on Wall Street. HP’s recent attempts to rationalize away the price declines recently seen in U.S. housing price indexes makes sense in light of the implications of falling housing prices for the value of the highly-leveraged GSE operations.
Because when you’re a bank you only last as long as someone is willing to loan you money. And starting today, people started thinking really hard about loaning them money.
Now that the administration opened their mouth about conservitorship, they more or less painted themeselves into a corner with few options.
If Freddie and Fannie stop making loans, it won’t be difficult to get a mortgage, it will be nearly impossible. All that will be left are GNMA and FHA insurance, and neither of them are in any shape to pick up that much slack.
If F&F stop making loans it would be nearly impossible to get mortgage loans that one should not be getting anyway. Suddenly, the only thing that would matter would be borrowers ability to repay the loan. And that’s a good thing!
An express bus to rock bottom.
Talk about jingle mail.
Even more so when they’re forced to issue more of it…
you should see their gold plated offices- still hiring
maybe we should NEVER subsidize anything again
“maybe”?????
Hehehe, it’s come down to this for mortgage brokers - read the second question down…
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/forged-title-transfer-crime-even/story.aspx?guid=%7BB4CE0FF6%2DB044%2D4353%2DA80A%2DD13F000E7E87%7D
Crude hits new record -$145.98 bbl
What we are witnessing is a Compound Fracture of our financial system, and for some crazy reason, Wall Street still thinks it can still run economic marathons in spite of all evidence to the contrary…
a Compound Fracture of our financial system
Oh really? The sun is rising here, and I don’t see any bank lines. The ATMs are working. People are going to work. Why is everybody buying into the hype? Are there groups that benefit from such things and are you helping them out?
A bailout of Fannie and Freddie would cost at least $5 trillion. That’s not small change.
With apologies to the late Senator Dirksen (R-IL): A trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.
“A billion dollars isn’t what it used to be.” (circa 1982)
Nelson Bunker Hunt
How soon until a trillion dollars is the qualifying hurdle to get on the Forbes richest Americans list?
“Zimbabwe Trillionaire”
It would double the national debt.
I don’t think that’s true…the Fannie/Freddy debt is backed by assets (houses)…sure the house values may not be worth enough to cover the entire debt, but the liability minus value is hardly equal to the national debt. Maybe at most 1/4? Still a big number, bit there is a bit too much hype going around, even for a bear like me.
I agree Arroyo…I say look east for the underlying problem ala “Israel”….I think they aare going to do it…They won’t get the support from Obama…The window is closing and they are going to pull the trigger IMO…Either that OR Iran is going to blink…Which one is it ??
Sometimes I wonder if Iran’s leaders have a death wish. They’re trying to get a nuke and now they show they have a delivery system to hit Israel. They have to be aware that Israel likely has a good sized nuclear arsenal and can put a serious hurt on them.
There are other data sources besides wiki on google. I like the French President quote though:
On 1 February 2007, President Chirac of France commented on the nuclear ambitions of Iran, hinting on possible nuclear countermeasures from Israel:
“Where will it drop it, this bomb? On Israel? It would not have gone 200 metres into the atmosphere before Tehran would be razed”.[31]
In arguing that the United States should directly talk to Iran rather than through intermediaries, former President Jimmy Carter stated in May 2008 that Israel has “150 or more” nuclear weapons in its arsenal.[32]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
Do we bailout homeowners or fan and fred?
That depends on whether the Saudis/SWF or the Chinese/UST are holding the paper. Whichever, We the Taxpayers are going to pick up the tab…cleverly, perhaps, with devalued USDs.
(Enjoy the horsies, Ouro.)
I say that this fannie scare is a cover to pass an emergency housing bill next week. Watch for the porkiest bill in history with lots of goodies for insiders.
It would not cost $5T for the US to shore up Fannie/Freddie.
It would cost whatever losses there were on those loans. Could it be $500B? Sure. Nowhere close to $5T.
Whether the US SHOULD shore up Fannie/Freddie is a different question. If the US government was so afraid of a Bear Stearns failure that they’d allow a controlled burn of the shareholder equity there, I would be shocked if they don’t intervene in some way shape or form to attempt a controlled burn of Fannie/Freddie equityholders.
And no Ben, I’m not crying bailout in any way that will keep home prices from falling, but I would be shocked if fixing FNM/FRE doesn’t come out of our taxpaying pockets.
They HAVE to sure up Fannie/Freddie. There is already an implied government guarantee as a GSE. If the mortgage market ceases to exist, which will basically happen if there is no F/F, then the housing market, construction, manufacturing and just about everything else is done.
Its really quite simple: The F/F stock may be worth little (though that is debatable), but their assets are worth close to $5T by any reasonable valuation method. It is NOT a $5T bailout that is necessary unless all of their loans are bad. If this is true, then Aladinsane might be right and we will need gold bars and should flee the US.
What if ~20% of F&F’s debt/guarantees were bad? 1 trillion?
Assuming the govt covered these losses (is that why the govt should bail them out???), where will the **future** mortgage money come from? Will bond investors continue to buy these mortgages after it’s been made clear that F&F were insolvent…even IF the govt were to back these new bonds? Would the govt have any credibility? Would they print? Would we see massive inflation if they took over the GSEs? Would we see higher interest rates to entice investors to buy F&F bonds, both because of greater inflationary concerns and because of F&F’s fragile states?
Admittedly, I’m not the brightest crayon in the box, but the word “conservatorship” is bouncing around out there in several MSM articles with regard to Fred/Fannie.
Something tells me iz too beeeg. (er…like the sheer numbers).
Sigh,
Leigh
All of the sudden Fannie & Freddie need a Trillion Dollars to keep keeping on…
That’s what we’ve (well, our foreign backers) spent on a couple of wars without end, without any benefit.
Where do you suppose we get the money from, to bail out frick and frack?
Local low level banking is always the last to know, economic benchwarmers.
It looks to me more like a shakedown of the scaredy-cats by strong hands with media allies.
No lines at the bank or ATM’s. Yeah, that’s because the people are broke, they have NO savings, just pure DEBT. Therefore, no run on the bank to take out their savings for their BROKE.
Most Americans are PENNYLESS and in DEBT UP TO THEIR EYEBALLS.
They’re be a line outside that bank real soon and it will be filled with people waiting to plead with their banker to LEND them more money.
How many people do you all know that can come up with $5k, in a week’s time?
Precious few…
To participate in a bank run, you must be fiscally fit.
Exactly!!! That’s why there will be NO run on the bank. Americans have NO MONEY, JUST DEBT.
CASH IS KING!!! 10% CD’s are on there way, just wait. They’re coming. Good things come to those that wait. Your Patience will payoff. So, glad I didn’t get into equites. We’ve had nothing but sucker’s rallies since October. American is BROKE and BROKEN. I’m waiting for DOW 10,000 or less. It’s coming, you’ll see. !!!!!!
“CASH IS KING!!! 10% CD’s are on there way, just wait.”
I remember being a dumb college student circa 1980, when an even dumber student suggested that I walk with him down to the neighborhood bank to purchase CDs yielding 10 pct. I was too dumb to take him up on the idea (but I would go for it in a heartbeat today!).
I remember a “Bosom Buddies” episode (sorry, Tom Hanks), circa 1980, that revolved around the two guys saving enough money to go out and buy a T-bill.
The irony is that a 10% rate offer by a bank might be a sign that you should look elsewhere to put your cash, like maybe the stock market.
The desperate need for cash should be accompanied by a high price for this cash, and this high price will be reflected in high interest rates.
But this desperate need for cash may also be reflected by declining stock prices as mutual funds are forced to dump their stock holdings to raise cash to meet withdrawl demands for their cash-strapped fundholders.
If this is the case then stocks is where one should put their money. High interest rates and low stock prices are both temporary conditions; It’s better lock in a low stock price than a high interest rate, IMO.
Great point! You can’t have a 1930s-style bank run if nobody has any savings in the bank.
And, following that line of thinking, maybe government will finally stop spending money they don’t have, when they realize that the fixed targets (homeowners, US based businesses) are turnips that you can’t get blood from, and the portable money will move overseas to greener pastures, if they get too crazy trying to raise taxes. Which will cause the government to curb their spending, which will eventually lead to a greater prosperity for everyone!!!!!!
(pause)
“Naaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!”
Signed, Theodoric of York
I’ve one has totally banked on meltdown, they’re going to do everything they can to cheer it on. And use as much free bandwidth as they are allowed, in the process.
Ben, good point. I worked 52 hours this week, and am paid for every hour. I saw no fewer cars and trucks on I-95 here on the east coast on the way to work. People are busy. Yes, some of us have to pay a bigger chunk of their incomes on loans worth more than their POS crackerjack box “houses.” But business goes on.
My dad told me 20 years ago that we will have another depression. In the meantime, fortunes were made in those 20 years. But I do think his prediction is right. Eventually we will have an economic depression. I think that may start (gulp) within 18 months. Some people think we are already in a depression. But that does not cause me to get out of equities. I’ll do fine in a depression with my hedges against equities.
More like a boil that got lanced, or a tumor that got removed. If you look behind the huge housing, commodities, and derivatives bubble thing it seems that behind all of that there is modest but robust growth across the board. The sleep of reason conjured monsters, and people told themselves and others things like “My house is worth a million dollars” and “My CDOs have high yields”. Now these strange dreams are fading with the dawn and we remain.
Would you like to McMetastasize that tumor for 99 Cents more?
Please pull up and pay at the first window.
Pope on the ropes
Weak US dollar hits papal profits
Upset homeowner shoots real estate agent
A man upset about a property transaction fatally shot a real estate agent in the head during a meeting Tuesday morning in the victim’s office, authorities said.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D91LB27O1.htm
This is about the 4th time posted on the HBB.
“I think folks will buy gas up to about $10.00 a gallon”
I think that’s way generous.
So what is the tipping point?
I’m partial to $8 a gallon, commuting the sentences of most drivers.
I think that no matter what, for some purposes, gas demand is inflexible. People have to have it to go to work, get food, deliver kids to school etc. I just think we’ll be seeing a lot more car pooling, sharp declines in unneeded trips, lots more fuel efficient vehicles, etc - I think we’ve covered it all here before.
One big one will be the movement of people back to population and employment centers, as well as the continuing proliferation of home based work for those who can produce over the internet. I already do with my business and it’s very viable. Most office based jobs probably can be modified to work remotely and all the better for it. JMHO.
I work with a municipal planner. I had to explain “peak oil” to him because he thought Peak Oil was the name of an oil company. He told me he wasn’t worried about the cost of gas because he would just ride his bike to work if it got too expensive. I told him when gas was too expensive for the masses he wouldn’t have a job to go to. He’s a government planner working on new developments and he can’t see the relationship between energy costs and the stupid go-go development we’ve seen over the last decade. He’s also working on a plan to manage growth for the next 20 years. I don’t think he’s going to have to worry about growth, as some counties in this end of the state are reporting declining populations. New development plans in my city are 1/3 of what they were last year, and I think we’re grossly overbuilt.
“Growth for the sake of growth is a cancerous madness.”
Edward Abbey
Excellent quote, however in my Abbey reference of quoations it is:
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”
What?
Since when can’t kids walk to school, soccer practice and dance lessons…we did. School was a mile away. Grocery store…plan ahead..one trip a week. One auto per family…works for me. My parents only had one car..both worked. One walked to work. Oh, and since when did it become law, that teenagers have their own car…cell phone…television… These items were earned in my family. Didn’t have my own car till 19, I earned the money to pay cash first. I used the family car, when I earned the privilege. Simple rules can save thousands in dollars and gas!
P S. Still don’t waste my money on cell phones or cable tv.
Since WWII a big chunk of the US population has moved themselves to places where the scenario you just described can’t possibly work without an auto. My family lived exactly as you described — in the 1950’s.
the continuing proliferation of home based work for those who can produce over the internet
The servers I manage are in Las Vegas and New Jersey, with staff in New York and Boston… there’s absolutely no reason for me to be in the office, except for management’s need for direct physical conversation (aka meetings). In development, our source code repository is in New Jersey and our dev/staging/QA are hosted with Amazon AWS. We use Trac for bug tracking and as a Wiki, so our development staff in Boston could work anywhere and remain connected and in-touch…
Communications, broadband internet, and VPN’s are ubiquitous today, so at $8-10/gallon many tech/software jobs will be remote. Either that, or large corporations will start offering “campus” type housing. I could see Google and Microsoft making corporate housing a part of developer’s compensation. No need to worry about fuel cost when you live where you work…
No need to worry about fuel cost when you live where you work… and you may wind up owing your soul to the company store.
A younger consultant than me here in Maryland in a small community is getting by without a car (so far). He can walk to the office if he wants. On weekends he takes a cab 3 miles to the Amtrak station and goes to New York to visit his brother. On weekdays he stays in a hotel. Probably spends $2300 per month but earns $8000 to $10000 per month. No dependents, no pets, etc. I found out he does not have a car, but used to have one.
Not too difficult to give up a car. You do not “have” to become a parent in your 20s or even 30s. You don’t have to get married. You don’t have to have a big screen TV. You don’t “have” to have a car. I got by without one until I was 26 (in 1985). One of my sisters lived in San Francisco for several years without a car. Rode her bicycle around the city. Funny how I was never worried about her biking as much as Im’ worried about her driving nowadays! I dated an older woman once who just moved from Manhattan to Tucson (where I lived). She was in her 40s and did not know how to drive. Never had to. Admirable!
“So what is the tipping point?”
I have no idea, but driving around Pinellas County shows me that $4 is puttin’ the hurt on many. The bus stops are crowded and I see more people walking and biking, even in the Florida summer heat.
Just what I need to see, more dudes walking around with their shirts off.
“The bus stops are crowded and I see more people walking and biking, even in the Florida summer heat.”
and i think this is a wonderful thing, it makes for a more healthy lifestyle. just think of the air quality when we dont have all this needless driving around!
I see more people conserving. I use 10% less gasoline (in the car) per week now compared to a month ago. The airplanes between BWI and Phoenix are now having empty seats.
We’ll come out stronger in ten years from this oil crisis. Cities will become stronger. Rural areas will become less populated. Over 50% of illinois energy is provided by nuclear energy. In ten years we will see a significant increase in nuclear energy. Cities of America will grow dim within 5 years, but shine brighter than ever in ten years. Can’t say the same about the rural areas. Gotta have a good aim there. Police and ambulances won’t help you out where there is “scenery.”
People will pay what they must. Thay will learn to economize via carpooling, bicycles, busses, etc.
In fact they’ve already been doing this; Gasoline consumption is way down.
Prices are way up; call it the Seal Beach conundrum.
I’m interested to know what metrics or sources of data you’re getting the ‘gas consumption is down’ info.
Recent news articles. Sorry, no links.
Refineries are running at something like 85% of capacity. Gas storage facilities are full. All this is due to people driving less. The word “Staycation” has sprung into being to partially explain this phenom.
Who cares how much gas America is using?
Chindia is picking up our slack and then some.
Fungible items like Oil & Gold always find their way to those that can pay…
Plus, those running the Highway Trust Fund are projecting a $3 billion shortfall this year due to decreased tax revenues resulting from declining gasoline sales.
Tax revenue on all fronts are going to be way down…Its also going to be delayed reality…Think we have deficits now, wait until 09 & 10…Hold onto your wallets everybody..The Greedy hand is comming…
Chindia is picking up the slack if you look in the review mirror.
China is getting hit hard with inflation
Next up decreased exports as US and world consumers spend more on food and fuel.
Then you will see consumption in these places slow.
China subsidizes the price of oil, I think a gallon of gas is around $2.50.
What do they care if they get rid of Yankee Dollars and buy overpriced oil to sell on the cheap?
If I wanted to defeat the USA w/o firing a shot, i’d bleed us at the pumps.
those running the Highway Trust Fund are projecting a $3 billion shortfall this year due to decreased tax revenues resulting from declining gasoline sales Look on the bright side. Wear & tear on the highways will go down as the miles driven go down, so less repairs will be necessary.
Ed:
Not scientific but here is what a guy told me at a ConWay Western Dock (large package shipper-UPS of bulk shipments).
The diesel tanker drivers have to fight over delivery assignments. Seems there are less tanker deliveries for the truck drivers. This translates into less $ for the truck drive.
EIA numbers for energy transportation consumption at http://www.eia.doe.gov/mer/pdf/pages/sec2_11.pdf
show about a 3% drop for the first quarter of 2008 vs 2007.
In my travels, although I see fewer flyers on airlines and I’m driving less myself, the demand for oil will continue to grow outside the U.S. substantially. Whatever the U.S. consumer does to cut back won’t really matter. Tens of milions of more cars will be on the roads in Asia in the next two years.
The oil age is over with.
Fmr Texas Senator “Dr. Phil” Gramm, chief McCain economic advisor, says the economic slowdown is ‘mental’, i.e. it is all in our heads.
“You just hear this constant whining, complaining, about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline. … We’ve never been more dominant; we’ve never had more natural advantages than we have today.”
uh, have you all not been complaining for 4 straight years here about how nobody wants to take responsibility for their stupidity, the market should deal with this, etc.? That is what he is saying, inconveniently for some of you, he is not a democrat.
He’s not saying the market will take care of things. He’s saying that if we just go out and spend money and buy houses, etc…. then the recession would magically go away.
But the Republican Party has a hard time acknowledging debt: It isn’t their problem. Just cut taxes on the wealthy, increase deficit spending, and print greenbacks to c.y.a. if you run into any problems.
Printing press, meet oil derrick.
Quite funny. I shall borrow.
The bush administration better start shrink wrapping some more of those Billions a Billions in 100 Dollar Bills on pallets and loading them onto the C-130’s AGAIN.
This time, he better fly them to Freddie and Fannie because they NEED them a WHOLE lot more than his Criminal, Thug and Hoodlum Friends in Iraq.
Ben just DOSEN’T have enough helicopters to PULL OFF this TRICK
Ewwwwwwww, what’s that smell?
The stench of Texas neo-cons
Alad,
I don’t understand today’s facination with “evangs” and “neo-cons” and to be honest, banging on the christian right doesn’t help your argument one bit. It just shows how unhappy and hateful you’re feeling today.
So please cut the crap!
Not a Lefty
I specifically blame the American evangelical movement for much of what has transpired to make this country into what it has become.
A fear-based existence, based on blind faith (the results of which we are witnessing in the financial sector) is no way to live.
Your ride on the back of the elephant did more damage to this country than can ever be imagined…
“A fear-based existence,”
BINGO… Be afraid, we’ll protect you. And when you’re not afraid anymore we’ll wheel another boogeyman for you to cower from.
And when the lying, thieving Cons have cried fire one too many times is when deceptive turds get the swirly twirl.
There’s a royal flush in someones hand.
There are new elephants on the roam to keep us paying for protection.
I specifically blame the American evangelical movement for much of what has transpired to make this country into what it has become.
No shit. The American evangelical movement (whatever that is) has so destroyed the USA that foreign nationals who are attempting to obtain residence here - legally - are on three to ten year wait lists. And no one has to be reminded of the numbers crashing our borders illegally. All that trouble to get into this hellhole of the United States.
here’s a hot tip for you:
BF works at Boeing. He told me that special Chinook helicopters are on line and being specially outfitted to airlift American citizens OUT of the country when The Great Meltdown occurs. But you can only secure your place on those special CH 47s if you’re a card carrying member of The American Evangelical Movement, and they don’t accept gold bullion as payment.
(OK, Lad, now go ahead and call me a cow like you did Txchk.)
Lessee, smears on blacks, “evangs”, “cows”, “neo-cons” (code word for da Jooos), all in one thread, even. Gettin’ into pretty rarefied air here. And this guy thinks he’s morally and intellectually superior to everyone else? No thanks, I’ll pass on that one.
I don’t know why he has such a stick up his azz about “evangs” when he’s the primo evangelist for the Religion of AU.
“I specifically blame the American evangelical movement for much of what has transpired to make this country into what it has become.”
“you can only secure your place on those special CH 47s if you’re a card carrying member of The American Evangelical Movement”
Are you guys for real? I’m no evangelical, whatever that is, but the ridiculousness of this logic is like saying the FB is to be specifically blamed for what has transpired in the housing market.
Whatever!
BF works at Boeing. He told me that special Chinook helicopters are on line and being specially outfitted to airlift American citizens OUT of the country when The Great Meltdown occurs. But you can only secure your place on those special CH 47s if you’re a card carrying member of The American Evangelical Movement, and they don’t accept gold bullion as payment.
That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever read in here, and that includes LV Landlord’s posts. And where are these Chinooks going to deposit said Evangelical Chosen? Mexico? And why would one need a “specially outfitted” chopper to hold the Evangelicals - does it have an open ceiling in case they get raptured en route to their secret destination?
Did your BF also inform you that 4,000 Jews got telephone calls the day before the 9/11 attacks telling them not to show up for their jobs at the World Trade Center, or that the design of the $20 bill foretold the attacks? [OK, disregard all those tributes to WTC victims with Jewish surnames, since these memorials were obvious forgeries, right?] Seriously, the gullibility of some people and the BS they’ll accept uncritically never ceases to amaze me.
I was being sarcastic.
There will be no CH47 rapture of evangelicals or anybody else, I repeat, no Chinook airlift (once the SHTF) is planned…
AFAIK
seriously, wtf happened to this blog’s TIC-o-meter, anyway? I had to explain myself downthread on this point because Lip took offense and called me a dolt.
Phillygal,
Sorry, I just jumped in and didn’t see your sarcasm. Please forgive me. You know I’ve tried sarcasm on the HBB a few times and I don’t communicate it well and I didn’t get it today.
Hey, where’s NYCityBoy been lately?
You don’t need to be partisan to recognize one undeniable fact….Bush & Cheney are energy men and anybody in oil during their term have made a lot of money…They are going to throw a ticker tape parade when these guys return to Texas & Wyoming…
“Since Bush took office in 2001, the US national debt has ballooned by $4 trillion dollars, and 2.6 million manufacturing jobs were shipped overseas. The US banking industry is mired in its worst crisis since the Great Depression, and the US economy has lost 432,000 jobs over the past six months. Washington is spending $10 billion per month in Iraq, and the American electorate wants change.”
Mission Accomplished!
“neo-cons” the universal liberal solvent for expressing “evil”.
Lip, I saw this post on one of the Yahoo message boards and thought of you and joeyincali:
Dear Red States:
We’re ticked off at the way you’ve treated California and we’ve decided we’re leaving.
We intend to form our own country and we’re taking the other Blue States with us.
In case you aren’t aware that includes Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and all the Northeast.
We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation and especially to the people of the new country of New California.
To sum up briefly:
You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states.
We get stem cell research and the best beaches.
We get Elliot Spitzer. You get Ken Lay.
We get the Statue of Liberty. You get OpryLand.
We get Intel and Microsoft. You get WorldCom.
We get Harvard. You get Ole’ Miss.
We get 85 percent of America’s venture capital and entrepreneurs.
You get Alabama.
We get two-thirds of the tax revenue. You get to make the red states
pay their fair share.
Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian Coalition’s we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.
Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro choice and anti war and we’re going to want all our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight ask your evangelicals. They have kids they’re apparently willing to send to their deaths for no purpose and they don’t care if you don’t show pictures of their children’s caskets coming home.
We wish you success in Iraq and hope that the WMDs turn up but we’re not willing to spend our resources in Bush’s Quagmire.
With the Blue States in hand we will have firm control of 80% of the country’s fresh water, more than 90% of the pineapple and lettuce, 92% of the nation’s fresh fruit, 95% of America’s quality wines (you can serve French wines at state dinners) 90% of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the US low sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools plus Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Cal Tech and MIT.
With the Red States you will have to cope with 88% of all obese Americans and their projected health care costs, 92% of all US mosquitoes, nearly 100% of the tornadoes, 90% of the hurricanes, 99% of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100% of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia.
We get Hollywood and Yosemite, thank you.
38% of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually swallowed by a whale, 62% believe life is sacred unless we’re discussing the death penalty or gun laws, 44% say that evolution is only a theory, 53% that Saddam was involved in 9/11 and 61% of you crazy bastards believe you are people with higher morals then we lefties.
We’re taking the good pot too. You can have that dirt weed they grow in Mexico.
Doesn’t that say it all?
Beautiful~
__________________________________________________
About God or Gods?
Zeus, Hera, Poseidon, Apollo, Artemis, Aphrodite, Ares, Hephaestus, Athena, Hermes, Hades, Demeter, Hestia, and Dionysus were all very powerful, all-knowing Gods, once upon a time in Ancient Greece.
If somebody said their names in a blasphemous fashion back then, bad things could happen.
Most of them sound like perfumes or colognes, now.
Please be aware that Nuevo California will be …
It was almost sounding good until this was mentioned.
But get your terminology right. It will be called Aztlan.
Nice hard reality Hondje but don’t expect ConTards to grasp it but I do love this tidbit;
“Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian Coalition’s we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.”
Maybe when the CCA makes social justice and protecting widows and children as Jesus instructed instead of harping on everyones sex life, they too will find their divorce rate drop. Until then, they’ll be marginalize to the fringes, right where they belong.
Dear New California,
I guess that means you get to take all the Wall Street bloodsuckers, Hedge fund pukes, and the Jackholes in D.C.
We keep all the energy that is produced in the Red States, that is currently exported to the Blue states.
Don’t let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.
Aladinsane,
I enjoy your multi-faceted posts. Are you foreign? Your observations are beyond what is expected from a person having grown in only one country.
Considering 85% of all hydro is generated in blue states not to mention all the nuke, you’ve got a deal.
tutto incognito:
I am the son of an immigrant of various ethnicities, whose college education was traveling millions of miles around the globe doing business, and seeing the world for what it really is, not the jaundiced view of the majority of my countrymen that can’t think outside of their little box.
That is why I love the US. Some individuals are the best specimens to be found anywhere. SOME, but the rest.. oh, boy… But that is the case anywhere really. but some worse than others, because in the US, the souls are gone, it is all transactions and brain washed by the TV. communism could not do it - making people equal only made them think outside of the box to differentiate between personalities. You only had yourself to show, not things… actually great times as a kid. the best by far!
Tutto.
New Mexico was a free territory. Thank you very much.
And I’d take the Duke of the south over the Duke of the north any day of the week. Much better weather. And better lookin’ cheerleaders.
Y’all,
Sorry had to work and couldn’t keep up with everything.
hondje, in response to your reply, if you really believe in fairly tales, lets separate the country into the political factions as they truly exist and I don’t have time to find all the links right now.
So go back to the last election results and review which “counties” went for which candidate and then tell me how the blue counties have all of the resources. What you’ll find is that most of the blue counties are in the urban areas where all of the consumers reside and most of the red counties are in the areas where all of the resources lie.
Do you still think that you get all of the good parts of the country?
Still glad that I’m not a miserable lefty.
Lip
“85% of the hydro…..all the nuke”
But……..I thought we were running out of water?
And as far as nuke plants……I’m in one of the reddest of Red States, and us dumb-ass country boyz gone done and figgured out how to build a nuke plant about 60 miles down the road.
Now, if we could just figure out what to do with all those 300 pound, two-headed, glow-in-the dark, largemouth bass that are in the plant’s lake…….:)
not to mention all the nuke,
wrong.
Anyway, why don’t all you blue staters just quit voting each other’s tax dollars away? And red staters too for that matter.
Hey Gulf, where do you reside?
Li(s)p,
Heh, I dunno about fairy tales or Kool-Aide, but I think if you were to go back and take a look at the 2004 election results, you’d find a very high correlation between folks who voted GOP and folks who believe that Saddam Hussein was behind 9/11 and that we would be seen as heroes and liberators by the Iraqis….remind me again why you, Rush Limbaugh and Toby Keith haven’t yet volunteered for this noble cause…?
Get real! All of you! Red or Blue you both voted for the same party! When are you going to get it?
It’s a one party system with two heads. Think about it.
Hadje,
Cute and typical. Can’t deal with rational reason so you have to devolve into name calling.
Here is the map I was talking about. Make your own conclusions if you’re capable.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/2004_County_Results_Final.html
“wrong.”
No. Right. You might have a podunk plant in Frogballs, Arkansas but the northeast nuke pumps out more megawatts than any other region.
http://www.nrc.gov/
One plant in podunk AR is one more than none. That makes you wrong, chief.
“neo-cons” the universal liberal solvent for expressing “evil”.
“solvent”?…are you trying to say “explanation” perchance?
Don’t you government bureaucrats have better things to do today than whine? Apparently you’re having a mental recession.
STFU
I take great issue with calling the US a country of whiners and complainers. I sometimes see such comments posted on this blog, which surprises me because we’re not supposed to be kool-aid drinkers here.
Disparaging comments about American citizens in general is a form of kool-aid, IMO, meant to degrade people and make them think they “deserve” punishment, etc. The “whiners and complainers” are a relatively small percentage of people that receive way too much exposure in the media, thus people start to think all or most are that way. (I submit that the media is complicit in the spreading of this propaganda). Please, tell me, in what other country would a T. Boone Pickens (private citizen) spend his own money to bypass a completely incompetent government and put a viable energy plan before the public?
Of course, if you can convince the majority of citizens that they are crap, you can get them to accept crap. Gramm can shove it up his butt. Most of the people I know do the best they can for their families and are decent people who work hard, don’t have SUVs and (gasp) either rent or live in house purchased pre-bubble. I don’t hear much “whining and complaining”, although some are a tad pissed off about the gas prices and so am I. Most, rather than complaining, are looking for ways to offset the expenses.
Yeah, maybe citizens have made some mistakes, like not policing their elected reps enough or not protesting phoney wars of aggression. I’ll buy that. But I don’t see Who Flung Poo getting on his state controlled TeeVee touting an alternative energy plan.
Sorry, but most are whinners and complainers. All they want is their American Idol to win. I don’t watch the show, but from what I have read more people vote on Idol than they do in primary election.
And people would love alternate energy, but ask them to research and find the right one for their situation and that is tooooo hard. Most people can install their own solar at a significant discount, but that is to much work for the complainers. They would rather have the gov give them free money so they can pay someone else to install it for them.
And don’t tell me it is difficult or dangerous. Its not.
Our solar system cost $29k (we HELOC’d and pay $250 a month on a 20 year fixed) and we now pay less for electricity than we did, when i’d write a check to the electric company before we solared up…
When I talk to people about solar, they always bring up how expensive it is, yet, people quite willingly were buying gas-hog SUV’s for $29k, and nobody ever complained about the price of those?
I will give you 50k for the galaxy.
I’ll sell you the dark side of the Sun for $50k.
I’ll give you 20K for the moon! I’ll turn it into a giant billboard. Whee
Pepsi or Coke?
Some other cheese company in Wisconsin already has first dibs on the moon, sorry.
6+
Ewwww, Uranus?
“I don’t watch the show, but from what I have read more people vote on Idol than they do in primary election.”
Most of those who vote on American Idol are not of age to vote in an election. Plus they can vote over and over, which theoretically isn’t allowed in elections. Keep drinking the elitist kool-aid and thanks for playing.
Testify Brother, testify!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“Sorry, but most are whinners and complainers.”
How the hell would you know? Oh, here’s how:
“from what I have read”
Thanks for making my point.
Sometimes what passes for “whining and complaining” is genuine protest about current conditions. Nothing wrong with that, either. Now, in this country called China, a little “whining and complaining” can earn you a ticket to that Great Factory in the Sky.
“whining and complaining” in China means that you’ve lost your job, but worry not, there’s hundreds of other eager educated people that will take your place.
We and the Chinese are on an escalator, and we’re going down and they are going up, and we are at the half-way point of the ride.
USA is the world-wide leader in number of it’s own citizens in prison, and our cowboy hat used to be white, but we switched it out for a black model, when nobody was looking.
Forget the Asia of your youth, the China of today has Unions including a WalMart union. Do the workers in the WalMarts in the US have any representation?
The only thing that one cannot protest in China (at this time) is the government. Business and business practices are under daily siege.
China 1968: Chairman Mao suits and little red books
China 2008: Italian suits and mauve passports
I should have said the majority.
And I stand by the majority will always complain and whine while the minority will see a situation and take action instead of complaining. I see it, and “hear it”, all the time. While the committe is scheduling another meeting trying to figure it out, I have already started the ball rolling to fix it.
Aladinsane solar is prime example. The majority will complain about their electric bill, Aladinsane took action.
“Aladinsane solar is prime example. The majority will complain about their electric bill, Aladinsane took action.”
What is the payback on that investment? What is the ROI?
“…..can’t protest against the government….”
Sorta like the old joke:
Guy from the USA is talking to a Russian from the old USSR….
American: “In the US, we can say that the government sucks as much as we want!”
Russian: “So what? In the USSR, we can say the US govermnet sucks as much as we want, too!!”
What is the payback on that investment? What is the ROI?
I was instantly shielded from the price of oil going up*, (electricity) and how many of you after 20 years of paying the electric company, have received a free solar energy system, on the house?
* Thanks Sun
20 years payback?! wow, that seems like a long time. what was the ROI again?
You don’t get it…
I either write a check to the electric company for $300 a month, or $250 is taken out of my bank account to pay for my loan.
It’s already tilted $50 a month, my way.
I expect the bulge to grow substantially.
I get it; the numbers just don’t work for me. I applaud your environmental concerns, just not your financial savvy.
Of course the problem is “mental.” The de-mented and a-mented don’t care one bit about economic & financial matters.
“Americans own too many cars” - Ya think!?
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2008/07/08/do-americans-own-too-many-cars.aspx
While doing some undergrad research I learned that four new cars were added to Chicagoland streets for every one new person added to the population. The trend persisted from 1990 to 2000 and was expected to continue until 2010…at least back then it was.
The comments are funnier than the article.
Whine whine whine going to one car would cause more miles driven because I would have to take my husband to work then drive back then go out to take my kids to the store every afternoon then go pick husband up whine whine whine.
My solution: Tired husband stop at the store on way home.
The guy was a bachelor once (probably for a long time based on his life choices), so he should still be qualified to shop.
The sad thing is that I’m going to HAVE to add a car next year… I’m going to be in full time school, the wife has to travel extensively, and the kid has got to get to school and back without help from us. Not a great situation…
“The guy was a bachelor once (probably for a long time based on his life choices), so he should still be qualified to shop.”
Ummm don’t be so sure - Actual quote from a young man I’m acquainted with.
“Cook? Ah don’t cook, my mom gits up and fixes lunch for mah stepdad everyday before she goes to work and she cooked dinner for mah dad everyday before he died. She kin do the same for me till ah get married then all she has to do is cook dinner for us…”
It’s almost funny…
So, I see we’ve met….. : )
I don’t understand the comment that “Americans own too many cars”. What difference does it make, the number of cars I own? I personally own three cars. But I only drive one at a time. My fuel consumption is the same, regardless of the number of cars I own. Multiple cars allow me to own older, less expensive cars. Multiple cars allow me to size the task at hand - that is, most of the time I drive the 38mpg 2seat Honda CRX. But if I need to move something, haul firewood, etc. I can drive the 12mpg truck (and pull a trailer).
I knew a guy that had FIFTEEN old Datsun 510s. But only had three license plates.
Used one for Autocrossing……swapped the tags to the cars that happened to be running when he needed to go somewhere
Multiple vehicles allow me to have a daily driver that is sized for my daily drive, instead of occasional road trips with a gobs and gobs of stuff.
I have 2 old vehicles so that I can fix & repair one while the other is still working. So far they’ve never been out of commission at the same time.
King dollar doesn’t look very regal this morning.
U.S. Adopts Capitalism Lite for Housing Bailout
Between official testimony and speeches, between politicians’ promises and legislative compromises, some of the details, I’m embarrassed to say, slipped through the cracks.
For example, I missed the April announcement of an expansion to FHASecure, the Federal Housing Administration’s program to help creditworthy borrowers refinance adjustable-rate mortgages when the teaser rates reset.
Under the expanded program, borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages who missed up to three interest payments in the last year — and who receive a voluntary mortgage principal writedown from their lender — would qualify for an FHA-insured mortgage. The new terms go into effect July 14.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aHGjICIkoaR0&refer=home
got a small short off on SKF at 175.
That’s impressive, given it’s up 9 in premarket and at 176.50.
just a crap shoot on filling the gap
pays again. going to reenter when it breaks the 180 area
Holy CR*P!!! Has anyone looked at Fannie and Freddie this morning? 7 bucks and 5 bucks respectively… DOH! Rough ride ahead, but maybe some good deals out there…
In the banks? Not even close.
“In the banks?” *SHUDDER* Not yet, but maybe, Just before the mergers begin and they’re at rock bottom single digits. Wachovia’s at 11 bucks down from a 13 close last night.
I just know that Fannie and Freddie executed many short sellers who knew all this years ago before the ship finally came in. Isn’t that always the way it is. Sorta like Worldcom or Enron.
How long till the government has to step in TX? Kramer (bless his heart) is yelling that they should do it this weekend.
Watching CNBC this morn saying that after the inevitable killing FNM, and Freddie will take this morn maybe the Gov. will step in over the weekend and so maybe a bounce play?
With oil and Iran too? The manipulators have finally met their match.
yes, over the weekend is what I’m reading too
I’m just going to calculate my call bids, stick em in and watch the show.
Usually when the Gov’t steps in, it’s the shareholders who get screwed.
So this is Bear Stearns 2, is what it’s sounding like??
You guys are scaring me…time to go buy some more hand lotion.
Aren’t you married??
Good point — my wife must have at least 200 spare bottles of lotion tucked here and there around the house.
LOL
“Good point — my wife must have at least 200 spare bottles of lotion tucked here and there around the house.”
Darn you PB, just got coffee stains all over my face and shirt because of you!
Would today be a good day to buy the dip?
Maybe late this afternoon.
Crude nears $147 bbl. $150 today anyone? What would that translate into for a gallon of gas or diesel?
Products up .06, probably another .06, .12 total. I filled up at 4.29 yesterday, sticks southwest of Chicago.
Thanks, it’s $3.91 - 3.97 for regular here, it’s killing the logging and trucking folks in the county because diesel is basically $5.00 a gallon.
Spoke too soon, now up .10, make that .20 total.
gas prices are going a bit crazy–in Forest park, IL, on Wed. it was 436.9–today it was 421.9.
I mean, goodie, but a 15 cent drop in 2 days?
Meanwhile gas prices are down and it is demand destruction. Investors are diversifying money into commodities and specifically oil. Money will continue to pour in and prices will continue to go up regardless of supply and demand fundamentals.
I still haven’t paid $4 yet. $3.98, yes.
I just paid $3.95 today.
over $10 now in the Netherlands
It’s $5.25 here in southern Ontario. You people do whine too much.
Correction, with the proper exchange rate it’s $5.35.5 a gallon. So there you whiners.
One local convenience store at the edge of town went down to $3.75 for regular this afternoon, 8 cents below the next lowest & drawing a crowd.
“Men have been swindled by other men on many occasions. The autumn of 1929 was, perhaps, the first occasion when men succeeded on a large scale in swindling themselves.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Feels very Autumn of 29′ around these parts…
It will be interesting to see how they try to halt the implosion this time. fnm, fre, leh, and all the regional banks? They need to pull a golden rabbit out of the hat.
“Bullwinkle: Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat.
Rocky: Again?
Bullwinkle: Presto!
Lion: ROAR!!!
Bullwinkle: Oops, wrong hat.”
It reminds me of 1973-74.
1979. All the goods are there except for interest rates. Food/fuel inflation, a pissed off proletariat, an imbecile president who clearly has no interest in representing the proletariat and rapidly contracting dollar supply.
It’s 1979, but…
The Americans (not the Russians) are tied up in Afghanistan. (Burial ground for 19th, 20th and 21st? super-armies)
Americans (the Chinese) don’t have a pot to piss in. (negative savings rate is a nice way of saying your citizenry is broke)
In the 70s inflation, wages chased up the rising prices. Today, wages are staying flat.
Please note I managed to avoid saying, “Today, not so much.”
No disco, this go round.
Things reached a boil in the windy city in 1979…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disco_Demolition_Night
Dahl is still on local Chicago radio. Less crazy but funnier since he stopped the boozing and drugging.
I remember him when I was in Chicago in the early 80’s.
Before him, when I still lived in west Michigan, my morning wasn’t complete without Larry Lujack, Tommy Edwards and “Animal Stories” on WLS.
Ha, ha…”Animal Stories”…what memories. Always seemed I heard them over the AM Blaupunkt in our ‘74 Beetle - 1979 gas prices were never a big deal for the family because of that car.
Things reached a boil in the windy city in 1979…
A proud, proud moment for our fair city.
Stand tall, disco hater!
Did they have credit ratings agencies then?
AU at 960, king dollar not looking regal.
Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes it’s laws.” - Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
Welcome to your first day, sir.
Wachovia hits 17-year low on CEO’s first day
Bank’s second-quarter earnings will be bleak
By Ieva M. Augstums
ASSOCIATED PRESS
July 11, 2008
New Wachovia CEO Robert Steel has worked for the Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. – On his first day as the new CEO of Wachovia Corp., Robert Steel saw the stock tumble to a 17-year low and faced questions about his ability to rescue the nation’s fourth-largest bank from its own missteps and the roiling credit market.
If im not mistaken, Wachovia was the result of a merger which included First Union. First Union was a very shady operation that found ways to shelter rich peoples income from taxes. These things were done illegally.
Wachovia can crash and burn for all I care.
Wachovia can crash and burn for all I care.
B-b-b-but think about what that would do to the Charlotte housing market!
test - fnm made going down
pass me some lotion
Why are GSE stock owners so pessimistic about an injection of government money?
Government mulls Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac takeover: report
Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:22am EDT
By Kevin Plumberg
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The U.S. government is considering taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if their funding problems worsen, the New York Times said on Friday, causing shares of the mortgage finance companies to plunge.
The MarketWatchers have an answer to my question.
BTW, I don’t expect an opening bell selloff on the headline indexes, but rather another very bouncy day off the opening bell level — like a cat on a hot tin roof. (But watch out below for anything that is under the hood of the main indexes and recently fell out of favor.)
FINANCIALS
Fannie and Freddie shares in freefall
Shares of mortgage giants back under intense selling pressure as investors fear a Washington takeover would render equity worthless.
Fannie Mae shares fall more than 50% in pre-open, to $6.50
Fannie, Freddie shares under siege
Stocks remain under pressure on report U.S. mulls takeover of mortgage firms
By MarketWatch
Last update: 7:56 a.m. EDT July 11, 2008
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Shares of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were down sharply once again in premarket trading Friday after a report the government is considering a possible takeover of the beleaguered companies.
A dilution of shareholder interest is not good for shareholders with falling earnings.
In any takeover, the shareholders will get zero, zip, zilch, nada.
Fannie and Freddie control ~80% of the home lending industry in the US.
“As of 7:57AM New York time the CDS on FNMA and Freddie Mac paper were quoted as follows:The senior debt is quoted 75/80 which is about unchanged from the close.
The subordinated debt is quoted 270/290. That is about 20 basis points wider.
Additionally , the CDS on Lehman Brothers is wider by 30 basis points at 355/375.”
Across the curve
For a supposedly government backed debt, this is a nightmare.
said that above. Ben disagrees that the stocks are worthless.
I’ll thank you not put words in my mouth. I never said one thing or another, I just asked what basis you made the assertion on.
One thing I’ve found to be true; when everyone else is running around like a chicken with their head cut off, it’s time to keep cool and assess.
BTW, I’ve lost count of these GSE freak outs in the time I’ve had this blog.
” 1. As the Times points out tonight, most people have no idea the capital at risk here. A 10% decline, say, in Freddie/Fannie assets would be roughly the same — $150-billion — as another Iraq war.
2. By taking on the companies’ liabilities the U.S. government’s total obligations would soar from $9-trillion to $14-trillion, almost certainly forcing U.S. rates much higher.
3. It has always been a canard to say that the companies have the regulator-required capital. Because they do, but the levels are so low as to be meaningless when looked at from a leverage perspective.
4. Most of the loans on Fannie/Freddie’s books were done before 2006 and are solid. And even the super-squirrely ones in 2006 and later are worth something, especially with insurance, so try hard not to be terrified by the total numbers involved here. This is going to be a wild ride, assuming a conservatorship happens, but total losses could end up being far less than the doomsters think.”
Mr. Paul Kedrosky
Most of the loans on Fannie/Freddie’s books were done before 2006 and are solid.
I think that depends in part on (a) how much real estate prices fall and (b) the impact of commodity inflation* and the housing crash on unemployment. If housing prices fall in half from here - which it has to do merely to return to historic norms (never mind overshoot), relative to income, and unemployment goes through the roof, FNM’s and FRE’s bond holders will need a bailout, and the stockholders will be zeroed out.
* Stores and restaurants are passing on a portion of the price hikes from their foreign suppliers, who have higher energy and commodity costs, on top of losses from the dollar’s recent depreciation. Consumers have less discretionary income to spend on buying clothes and gadgets or eating out because grocery store prices are up and gasoline prices have doubled over the past few years. Some of these stores and restaurants will close or cut headcount because they will repeatedly bust through their break-even points on the way to generating red ink.
Yeah, but have you seen those dividend yields? Over 15%!! Woohoo!
I think y’all are gonna be an entertaining bunch today.
I’ve noticed that also Blano. Everyone is feeling their oats today.
Foreclosure rescue to pass Senate; House next
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS
WASHINGTON (AP) - Struggling homeowners who can’t afford their mortgages and banks facing big losses would get government help under a foreclosure rescue that has broad bipartisan support.
The plan is headed for Senate passage Friday, but faces a bumpy road, with the House planning a rewrite and the White House threatening a veto without major changes.
With the last procedural hurdles scaled Thursday, the package was on track for resounding approval in the Senate. It has drawn broad support in the Senate, reflecting widespread interest by lawmakers in both parties in sending election-year help to struggling homeowners facing tough economic times.
The centerpiece of the plan would let the Federal Housing Administration back up to $300 billion in new loans to give struggling homeowners more affordable, fixed-rate mortgages. It allows lenders who agree to take a substantial loss on the mortgages to reclaim at least some money and avoid a costly foreclosure.
Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the Financial Services Committee chairman and an architect of the bill, said the few but significant revisions House leaders are seeking could be made in as little as one week. Key players are preparing for a week of intense negotiations to resolve differences on Capitol Hill and with the White House, with an eye toward producing a bill President Bush could sign later this month.
The measure includes a long-sought modernization of the FHA and would create a new regulator and tighter controls on Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the government-sponsored mortgage giants. It also would provide $14.5 billion in housing tax breaks, including a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers.
Congressional Democrats are divided over important elements of the plan, including limits on loans the FHA may insure and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may buy. The Senate measure sets them at $625,000, while House leaders - including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., - want the cap as high as $730,000.
House leaders also oppose the immediate effective date of the Senate plan, preferring to phase in the new regulations for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over six months.
Another key point of dispute is $3.9 billion in the Senate measure for buying and rehabilitating foreclosed properties. The House’s band of conservative “Blue Dog” Democrats oppose the money, arguing that it would swell the deficit unless paired with cuts or tax increases to cover the cost.
But many Democrats, particularly members of the Congressional Black Caucus, are fighting to keep the funding, which they say will help prevent the communities hardest hit by the housing crisis from sliding into blight.
The White House singled out the money in its veto threat, calling it a bailout for lenders who helped cause the mortgage meltdown.
Lawmakers and the Bush administration agree on the central concept behind the measure: allowing the government to backstop new mortgages for struggling homeowners.
To make it more palatable to Republicans, the Senate measure would take responsibility for any losses away from taxpayers and instead cover them by diverting an affordable housing fund drawn from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac profits.
http://apnews.myway.com//article/20080711/D91RLFT80.html
The scepter of Congress’s bailout measure passing is shoring up confidence in the GSEs by leaps and bounds…
BULLETIN
TREASURY CHIEF: FOCUS REMAINS ‘SUPPORTING’ FANNIE, FREDDIE IN ‘IMPORTANT PUBLIC MISSION’
Text of Paulson statement on Fannie, Freddie
By MarketWatch
Last update: 10:44 a.m. EDT July 11, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Here is the text of the statement released Friday by the Treasury Department about Fannie Mae (FNM:
Last: 8.74-4.46-33.79% 10:56am 07/11/2008) and Freddie Mac (FRE:
Last: 5.11-2.89-36.12% 10:56am 07/11/2008) :
Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. made the following comment today on news stories about “contingency planning” at Treasury:
“Today our primary focus is supporting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form as they carry out their important mission.
“We appreciate Congress’ important efforts to complete legislation that will help promote confidence in these companies. …”
“If the bond holders loose their capital, no one will buy fannie or freddie bonds for a very long time (or ever) - result? No mortgage lending except from banks’ nonexistent capital reserves. Housing sales stop.”
Polly, if the government plays it right, that doesn’t have to be a problem. The government created Fan and Fred to create a secondary mortgage market, then privitized in some years later.
It could create a new Fan and Fred, as federal agencies with explicit federal backing, to take out traditional mortgages with real rules and direct IRS income verification. Then let the Fan and Fred bondholders, not just stockholders, take the hit.
It would have to be done quickly, because yes housing sales would stop. But if the government can create the new entities in 60 days, well, banks could hold loans that long as long as they knew the takeout was coming.
“…banks could hold loans that long as long as they knew the takeout was coming.”
Meanwhile, a sixty-day hiatus in home sales could really screw up the comps, as most likely the only sales would be for cash at fire-sale prices.
I think what WT means is that the banks would make the loans starting on day one following the wipe-out of FNM and FRE, and sixty days later, the new gov entity would buy the loan from the bank.
There would be no 60-day hiatus.
If the Fed wants to play, they can lend the banks the money for such qualifying loans with no capital requirement (or very little capital requirement at the bank level).
Dang, the HBB is all crabby today.
This is like the 6th day of a 7 day camping trip.
I’m not crabby, I’m squidward - I’m a true American Whiner today.
NYSE high-low index (pnf) is at it’s lowest most extreme level since September of 1998 (via Kevin Depew)
I am just not into technical trading of stocks; I am not smart enough. I look at the charts, they look like crap and the fundamentals scream BK.
Must have really crashed today.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/pointFigure/dynamicPF.html?NYHL
capitalism reality check:
The biggest political story of 2008 is getting little coverage. It involves the collapse of assumptions that have dominated our economic debate for three decades.
Since the Reagan years, free-market cliches have passed for sophisticated economic analysis. But in the current crisis, these ideas are falling, one by one, as even conservatives recognize that capitalism is ailing.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071002264.html
Does Dodd, Mozzilo and the rest of the rest of the criminals just get to slither away from this ?
I want Shelby to hang too. And who was suppose to be providing oversight during the housing boom years 2001-2006?
It happened in N.Y. and Ill. too, who was looking out for them?
I blame the evangs
Blame away dolt
Right on Philly. When the charlatan authoritarian nuts posing as “evangelicals” make social justice issues (remember that little thing called Sermon on the Mount?)an equal part of their agenda is when they’ll get the respect they want.
lol
Lip and exeter -
I said that TIC. Upthread aladin blamed the terrible state of the country on the evangs, and I was just mimicking him. How can anyone blame any one class of people for everything that’s wrong with a nation? (substitute Blacks, or Latinos, or Greek window-washers or short car mechanics, for evangs - it’s equally meaningless).
exeter, I am aware of the Sermon on the Mount.
“Blessed are the peacemakers for they shall be called the children of God”, etc.
I guess I should have put a /sarcasm tag at the end of my post. Dag, I just got called a name. In the spirit of the Beatitudes, I shall let it pass. *halo*
“You never see animals going through the absurd and often horrible fooleries of magic and religions. Only man behaves with such gratuitous folly. It is the price he has to pay for being intelligent but not, as yet, intelligent enough.”
Aldous Huxley
I know you were j/k Philly but I couldn’t help myself. No problem. Hypocrisy is just one of my peeves.
Yep. Mussolinied would be a nice alternative.
Since Fannie and Freddie are in the news these days, let me tell you a little about how they worked.
My wife used to work for a major lender and she was right in the thick of things.
Fannie had what was called a “decision engine”. This program would be used to determine if they would accept/take a loan or not from the lender. This engine did not tell the lender how to qualify a borrower. It did not say that someone needed to document income etc.
The “decision engine” was a program that was very easy for the lender to manipulate to get a “yes” answer. So, the lender basically was able to qualify a strawberry picker for a 700k house and dump it on Fannie.
This was all done by manipulation starting with the borrower and moving up the chain to the broker and lender.
Who is to blame - all the parties involved.
Your post explains why I repeatedly say that a purging and correction of the loan making systems is needed because what was wrong with it has not been corrected yet . In a declining market ,that has not stabilized yet ,the risk is higher with any loan (unless a person puts a size-able down payment ) . Where is the correction of the appraisal system during the boom that was useless and corrupt ?
A new risk factor is present now for the GSE’s lending ,(or any lending )and that is the willingness for borrowers to walk in droves if property decreases in value in non-recourse States ,especially on low down payment loans .
Is Fred and Fannie going to be the new victim of choice for the pass the loans creep lenders? The fact that Freddie and Fannie had lower loan limits saved them from more loss during 2002-2008 already .But now they just had to raise that limit so Fannie and Fred is more exposed ,especially if they are going to refinance current high loan amount junk on the books by the bail out bill.
When the powers started this bail-out plan ,I really don’t think they had any idea of how much potential for a major crash in values in real estate was there . It seems like they were figuring a 20% crash in values in bubble States ,where it’s going to be more like a 50% crash in values or more on foreclosures . Did Dodds figure in all the destruction of property that is taking place from all the so-called victim FB’s that are getting their revenge when they walk ? Is the government even considering that borrowers were sold on a Ponzi-Scheme ,that didn’t work out ?
When the new fashionable trend is to walk if you can’t make a buck off your house ,and borrowers are doing that instead of going for re-working loans, Congress /Senate needs to re-work their bail-out plans. Congress/Senate needs to come to terms with the fact that it was a housing mania and Ponzi-scheme that was riddled with fraud and faulty lending and homeowners would rather walk than be saved if their property isn’t going up in value .
I’m just saying there has to be a better way to resolve this nightmare than what is being proposed currently .
Citi sells bank to shore up its financing: Fire Sale starting
Citi to Sell German Retail Banking Operation to Credit Mutuel
Friday July 11, 2:59 am ET
DUSSELDORF, Germany & NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Citi announced today that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell Citibank Privatkunden AG & Co. KGaA, its German retail banking operation, and certain of its affiliates, to Credit Mutuel, the third largest retail banking group in France. Credit Mutuel will pay all-cash consideration of Euro 4.9 billion (US$ 7.7 billion) plus earnings accrued in 2008 through the closing. Citibank, one of Germany’s most efficient retail banks, generated post tax earnings in 2007 of Euro 365 million and at year-end 2007 had a net asset value of Euro 944 million, in each case based on German accounting principles. The sale is expected to close in the fourth quarter pending regulatory approvals.
The transaction is expected to result in an estimated after-tax gain of $4 billion to Citi upon closing. After giving effect to the proposed sale, Citi’s Tier 1 capital ratio would have increased by approximately 60 basis points as of March 31, 2008….
And yet they say fnm and fre are buys. Are they market makers with inventory to unload?
July 11 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are sound, have several options for capital and liquidity, and the “facts don’t warrant” the negative reaction by investors, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said.
“There is sort of a panic going on, and that is not what ought to be,” Dodd, a Democrat from Connecticut, said at a press conference in Washington today. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were never bottom feeders in the residential mortgage market.”
Dodd said options for the two largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies include using the Federal Reserve’s discount window. He said the Fed and the Treasury Department are considering a “number of options.”
so do you beleive this guy ? haha looks like many don’t
“…It’s necessary and urgent to set up buffer funds to confront big speculators and stabilize the mainland market, a senior official said. Jiang Lianhai, head of Jilin provincial securities regulatory bureau, published an article in Shanghai Securities News yesterday, which pointed to the necessities, functions and capital resources of launching a buffer fund. Later, an official from China Securities Regulatory Commission reiterated the view in an interview with China Daily.
In the article, titled “The capital market with Chinese characteristic calls for a buffer fund”, Jiang said that in recent years, international hot money has flooded into China’s stock market and real estate sectors. Some international speculators are planning to buy cheap stock when the market is sluggish and close out in a high price. “If the government does not have an effective tool in hand, it will be dangerous.” ….
China Daily
I love the last 2 sentences. I would not buy into a stock if I did not think I would make moneys. I recently bought a bit of the cheap stock and there are some really inexpensive stocks in China now.
Panic selling in the USD, gold +25.
Panic selling? If it breaks 72, then you’ll see panic selling.
It’s already there. Gonna short some more oil?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&t=f
At 200, lol.
the king is dead?
July 11 (Bloomberg) — The dollar dropped to within a cent of the all-time low against the euro on concern the U.S. government may be forced to take over mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=SIL%2c+CDE%2c+DROOY%2c+AGT%2c+PAL
The metals stocks I snapped up at firesale prices the other day (mentioned in here that I was loading up the truck) have done nicely today. Say hello to the flight to quality.
A Delicate Balance
By Steven Pearlstein
Friday, July 11, 2008; Page D01
“You know something’s up when both the secretary of the Treasury and the chairman of the Federal Reserve give speeches calling for a new mechanism to allow them to manage the orderly liquidation of a major financial institution.
You have a sense that things are getting desperate when General Motors has to offer six-year loans at zero-percent interest to unload its gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs, and people openly speculate about how long it will be before the automaker runs out of cash.
And you can feel the foundation shaking under Wall Street when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to pay three-quarters of a percentage point more to borrow money than the U.S. Treasury, which implicitly guarantees their debt, and top government officials feel compelled to reaffirm their support.
We’re nearing that delicate point in the cycle when even the usual cheerleaders have hung up their pompoms, consumer and business confidence has disappeared and investors are driven mostly by fear rather than greed….”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071002420.html
Did I mention I’ll stick with silver?
Take it from Queen Tea, you want to own all you can right now.
And Queen Tea is a renter.
Queen Tea,
Yawwwn….we’ve heard it all before:
-borrow all the money you can to purchase silver.
-they aren’t making any more silver.
-buy now or be priced out forever.
-silver can only go up.
-everybody wants to own silver.
Seriously, haven’t we had enough practice spotting self-promoting Ponzi schemes on this blog?
I would trade/hold fresh steaming turds if I could get a better than average return. Have I made money in Gold and Silver? Hell yes. Much more than any blue chip position in the last 3 years.
The point is, I invest in whatever sector makes me a REAL return. I don’t care what it is, metals or otherwise.
Fantastic. Just make sure you use your psychic powers to get out when it peaks, because the laws of gravity apply to silver, just like they do to housing.
But to some of us who don’t own silver, you come across as a Ponzi player when you brag about your holdings on an economics blog and then exhort others to buy that commodity to the max. In my universe, that’s called a “conflict of interest”.
You should buy silver, I don’t own any.
Wait…what?
Yes its all MENTAL, when you take out the falling house values, the rising unemployment, the dismal stock market, the high cost of home heating oil, the high cost of food ad nasuem…
Falling over a cliff in slow motion
By Martin Wolf
Published: July 11 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 11 2008 03:00
What might happen to the British housing market? After a week of dire news from specialised mortgage lenders and housebuilders, this is an obvious question. It also plays directly into the darkest obsessions of the British, for whom nothing is more important than that houses become ever more ludicrously expensive.
Certainly, houses became impressively costly between the middle of 1996 and the turn of this year. Over that period, real house prices rose by close to 190 per cent, according to the Financial Times index. A trend fitted to a series on real house prices that goes back to January 1971 was 30 per cent below the peak reached at the end of last year. In the third quarter of 2007, the ratio of average earnings to house prices peaked at just under six. This was almost double the ratio at the trough of 1995 and well above the previous peak of five reached in 1989.
After the biggest house-price boom in the UK’s history, can the country avoid the biggest ever bust?…”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d250aa2-4ee1-11dd-ba7c-000077b07658.html
“After the biggest house-price boom in the UK’s history, can the country avoid the biggest ever bust?
Fathom Consulting began a bulletin released yesterday by remarking sardonically that “as the UK housing market downturn gathers pace, it is common for analysts and commentators to argue that this downturn will not be as bad as the early 1990s . . . They are probably right. It looks [as though] it will be worse, perhaps far worse.”
——————————————————-
Wow!
Where is Neil? We need to get the popcorn machine cranked up!
In the UK when you go to a movie, one can get their popcorn either sugared or salted. (memories from 20 years ago)
I thought the British were supposed to prop up our market with their MEW. Oh well.
Just want to report that AB Dada and I had an ad hoc Chicago HBB meet-up last night at a local watering hole. (Neither one of us remembered a camera, however.)
AB Dada is a nice and knowledgeable guy, and we found we had more in common than either of us probably expected. Heck, his little brother even lives in my neighborhood. We hung out, talked about commodities, real estate, fiat currencies, hamburgers — you know, stuff like that.
It was fun.
Definitely! Sorry no one else showed up, but it was VERY last minute. I’m going to plan the next one soon for a month from now or so, and will post early in a future Bit Bucket to figure out what is convenient for all. Since I have a car, I would be happy to provide transportation in one or both directions for those who need it.
Thanks for coming, ET!
I stopped by the place around 5:15 and the only people there were the bartenders. Let me know well in advance of the next one…
Those jerks! I just got off the plane at 4pm and was stuck in traffic till 6pm, so I texted them to put up a sign at a table saying “HBB Party starts at 6.” Of course they didn’t, and when I arrived, they said NO ONE came in.
Next meetup I will provide my cell phone number so we can congregate properly. Sorry about that, stupid plane delays kill good plans!
I’m a bit of a history junkie, and watching events unfold in real-time, with the help of the internet, allows me to watch the carnage from far, far away…
We are witnessing an epochal event, a turning moment.
This turning moment has been turning for several years. It’s just recently that the turn has become “revealed”.
Very few can put such varied coloration in their posts and cover so many topics as you aladinsane. I have a specific question. For you, watcher, or anyone else who is interested. What is the outlook for GFI? Some time ago I read that they had the biggest reserves, plus ABX is a big copper company as well, which will get hurt in a slowdown, so I opted for GFI, and have been buying to average the cost down. Obviously, GFI is underperforming compare to my GLD and SLV. I was waiting for even lower prices to load up on more of all three, but I might have to wait more, or not even get my wishing prices. I started buying AU in the high 400’s.
Miners will trail the commodities in this cycle, IMO. They have rising costs, political risk…I prefer the commodities. Good call on AU. Good luck.
Wells Fargo now pushing reverse mortgages. Indymac dumping everything to concentrate on reverse mortgages.
Conclusion: We are fuc*ed!
From what I gather, approximently 40% of homeowners have their homes paid off, are free and clear. Probably most of these folks are old, maybe retired. It makes good business sense for banks to go after this huge pool of money. If I ran a bank that’s what I would do.
I have been asked to do some of these reverse mortgage valuations. It turns my stomach to talk to these older folks and I ain’t that far behind but in most cases it is a live or die situation.
There are few doing it for some money to throw around. It is for groceries. Most also have no family and figure they will use it while they have a chance to live a little. In most cases it is necessary and they have tried to sell their homes with no luck. Undoubtedly, this will enhance the foreclosure activity down the road as they are given only a 65% LTV. Once that is gone you are in jeopardy.
As always they think the market will be back. I suppose it is a reasonable approach when one can see the end of the road in the distance but just make sure you don’t outlive your equity.
It is an interesting concept in that there are several ways to get the dough, 1 lump sum, sucker play, monthly stipend, could make sense or a basic reserve fund, my guess, for sleeping purposes. God bless these folks being dragged into this hole at this time of life.
PS- they must go through an FHA counseling session to be made aware of the terms. If they are found to be incapable of understanding the magnitude of the situation the loan cannot be made. No exceptions.
“No exceptions.”
Well, if the mortgage industry of the last 8 years is any guide, regulation was made to be broken.
Well, IndyMac won’t be doing much of anything anymore…they’re done, seized by regulators.
Cat’s can drink in a pool, but only if they don’t have to swim.
Cats can drink in a pool, but cats can’t drink in a pool. It’s all where you put the emphasis.
Last night I dreamt I found a trapped kitten in an old oven.
i moved everything around to get to it.
When I put it in my hand it was the size of a mouse.
I like cats now.
The PPT Cruiser somehow ended up with 4 flat tires, and it’s doubtful if we can get it going within the next 5 hours…
I think the macroeconomic budget constraint may have really kicked in at this point. Would you prefer much higher dollar prices for FOREX plus gold and other commodities, or much lower stock prices?
We get both.
I have $6 in my wallet. Should I buy:
a. a share of FRE
b. a gallon of diesel
c. a super sized lunch?
I’d go with the lunch, $6 is a lot for tp and diesel tastes funny.
Get a haircut at a barbershop.
Ask questions.
Wheels are back on…
The government officials said that the administration had also considered calling for legislation that would offer an explicit government guarantee on the $5 trillion of debt owned or guaranteed by the companies. But that is a far less attractive option, they said, because it would effectively double the size of the public debt.
I’m thinking that the United States is toast. It’s over for us. It’s funny that what killed us wasn’t Islamic Terrorists, but greedy house flippers.
I have a huge amount of contempt for my fellow Americans.
It’s funny that what killed us wasn’t Islamic Terrorists, but greedy house flippers.
yep
Got gloom?
latest news
[FNM] Paulson: No bailout of Fannie, Freddie on horizon
ECONOMIC REPORT
Mood’s still extremely gloomy: University of Michigan
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:42 a.m. EDT July 11, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. consumers remain extremely pessimistic this month, according to a July consumer-sentiment survey.
The sentiment index from the University of Michigan and Reuters hit 56.6 in July, compared with 56.4 in June. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a July figure of 56.
June’s 56.4 was the lowest since 1980 and the third-lowest reading in the 56-year history of the survey.
“The bad news is that the expectations component, which leads spending, fell again for the sixth straight month, hitting a 28-year low of 48.3, down from 49.2,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “This is consistent, if sustained, with real consumption falling at a year-over-year pace in excess of 1%.”
“…June’s 56.4 was the lowest since 1980 and the third-lowest reading in the 56-year history of the survey.”
I still see debt people…with negative savings.
Is the “green zone” in Baghdad expanding? Are the poppy fields in Afghanistan being shipped FedEx to NYC florists?
Chorus:
Row, row, row your boat gently down the Dow, merrily merrily, merrily life is but a trade.
Refrain:
“Still holding above the lows though”..from two weeks ago!
Quick, anybody know what color the “National Alert Flag” is?
And Fannie & Freddy will be quoting this guy…remember him?:
“Casey’s life isn’t where he expected it to be. “I thought I was going to get rich quick,” he laments. “Life sucks.”
http://www.drphil.com/slideshows/slideshow/4233/?id=4233&showID=1011
This article was from last month, apologies if anyone else posted it already. From Harper’s. Made me feel slightly less crazy to see somebody else muttering the same heresies that have crossed my mind numerous times…
Our phony economy
By Jonathan Rowe
From testimony delivered March 12 before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Subcommittee on Interstate Commerce. Rowe is codirector of West Marin Commons, a community-organizing group, in California.
“Suppose that the head of a federal agency came before this committee and reported with pride that agency employees had burned 10 percent more calories at work last year than they did the year before. Not only that–they had spent 10 percent more money too. I have a feeling you would want to know more. What were these employees doing when they burned those calories? What did they spend that money on? Most important, what were the results? Expenditure is a means, not an end, and to assess the health of an agency, or system, you need to know what it has accomplished, not just how much motion it has generated and money it has spent. The point seems obvious, yet Congress ignores it every day when it talks about “the economy.” The administration and the media do it, too. Every time you say that “the economy” is up, or that you want to “stimulate” it, you are urging more expenditure and motion without regard to what that expenditure is and what it might accomplish, and without regard to what it might crowd out or displace in the process.
That term “the economy”: what it means, in practice, is the Gross Domestic Product–a big statistical pot that includes all the money spent in a given period of time. If the pot is bigger than it was the previous quarter, or year, then you cheer. If it isn’t bigger, or bigger enough, then you call Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke up here and ask him to do some explaining. The what of the economy makes no difference in these councils. It never seems to come up. The money in the big pot could be going to cancer treatments or casinos, violent video games or usurious credit-card rates. It could go toward the $9 billion or so that Americans spend on gas they burn while they sit in traffic, or the billion plus that goes to such drugs as Ritalin and Prozac that schools are stuffing into kids to keep them quiet in class. The money could be the $20 billion or so that Americans spend on divorce lawyers each year, or the $41 billion on pets, or the $5 billion on identity theft, or the billions more spent to repair property damage caused by environmental pollution. The money in the pot could betoken social and environmental breakdown–misery and distress of all kinds. It makes no difference. You don’t ask. All you want to know is the total amount, which is the GDP. So long as it is growing then everything is fine.”
The whole article is pretty good. I particularly liked this quote:
“By the standard of the GDP, the worst families in America are those that actually function as families–that cook their own meals, take walks after dinner, and talk together instead of just farming the kids out to the commercial culture. Cooking at home, talking with kids, walking instead of driving, involve less expenditure of money than do their commercial counterparts. Solid marriages involve less expenditure for counseling and divorce. Thus they are threats to the economy as portrayed in the GDP. By that standard, the best kids are the ones who eat the most junk food and exercise the least, because they will run up the biggest medical bills for obesity and diabetes.”
The problem with American society in a nutshell.
excellent. thanks.
In honor of the DJIA slipping under 11k
_____________________________________________________________
Nigel Tufnel: The numbers all go to eleven. Look, right across the board, eleven, eleven, eleven and…
Marty DiBergi: Oh, I see. And most amps go up to ten?
Nigel Tufnel: Exactly.
Marty DiBergi: Does that mean it’s louder? Is it any louder?
Nigel Tufnel: Well, it’s one louder, isn’t it? It’s not ten. You see, most
blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You’re on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you’re on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?
Marty DiBergi: I don’t know.
Nigel Tufnel: Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?
Marty DiBergi: Put it up to eleven.
Nigel Tufnel: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.
Marty DiBergi: Why don’t you just make ten louder and make ten be the top number and make that a little louder?
Nigel Tufnel: [pause] These go to eleven.
clap clap
That is one of the single most hilarious dialogues in movie history.
Aladinsane, could you tell me if you are alad insane or aladin sane.
Thanks.
It varies.
LOL and sometimes Alad in Sane.
wonder who Bowie stole it from?
TOTALLY missed the most plausible version…
A lad insane…..
must be a cultural thing or i am just stupid….
Only a lad
You really cant blame him
Only a lad
Society made him
Only a lad
Hes our responsibility
Only a lad
He really couldnt help it
Only a lad
He didnt want to do it
Only a lad
Hes underprivileged and abused
Perhaps a little bit confused
Holy SMOKES! I just got a chance to look at the market (I’m outa the house) and it looks like today’s Walk was some potent stuff… Wonder if I can bottle this stuff? Maybe even put it into reverse…
Walk backwards?
“Hmmmm” JW mulls this suggestion over… It’s too radical an idea for his limited cognitive abilities and schema so he resets.
(besides, wouldn’t that be considered freakish :D)
Who knows what the hell would happen if you looked over your shoulder or stepped on any cracks.
It’s too risky, man.
It could mean an end to the universe as we know… “With great power comes great responsibility…” I’m just going to have to accept that… Now! Let’s see if I can gold into LEAD!!!! (JW concentrates mumbling furiously under his breath)
Walk backwards wearing rearview mirrored (and rose colored) glasses?
Hey lets try an experiment on Monday…how far can you walk upside down? Then on Tuesday do the same thing only…backwards!
I was thinking of doing it in oversize clown shoes to honor the late, great, Bozo. He was the only clown I wasn’t terrified of growing up. Emmett Kelly? A demon from hell as far as I was concerned…
Why is everyone surprised by the GSE news? It’s another ho-hum day in the bunker. Pass the spam…
They aren’t going down in IMO, they have a credit line to the Treasury that will just be increased as much as needed to get them whatever capital they need. They’re way off the lows of the morning.
Care for a little light relief anyone?
I was having a frustrating day yesterday, and had to spend a lot of time driving in pretty heavy traffic. Then the radio played “Hello Eugene” by Pink Martini - and everything just got better…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vf4X6WKPtk
“had to spend a lot of time driving in pretty heavy traffic”
i see the same here in bakersfield. i call bullsh!t on the gas prices being way to high! when the traffic thins out, then i might think about listening to the constant complainers
Dow drops below 11,000 for 1st time in 2 years
The government-chartered companies at times each lost more than 40 percent on growing speculation that a government bailout is needed. A collapse of the two financiers would cause further shock to the financial system, and trigger more losses to banks and brokerages with significant holdings of mortgage-backed securities.
The confluence of negative news offset a mostly positive quarterly report from General Electric Co. The conglomerate that owns everything from television network NBC to jet engine plants reported second-quarter profits that met analysts’ expectations. However, the outlook across its business lines was mixed.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080711/wall_street.html
negative news and speculation. this sums up the panic!
well, it’s got me salivating.. so many of what looks like great deals out there.
Citi is near $16 although i told myself to wait till around $14 .. FNM and FRE .. Wachovia at around $11.
It’s a blue light special in the candy section… almost too tempting.
“so many of what looks like great deals out there”
Might want to check in with the hoz man.
Chalk one up for the gold bugs. Not many other assets are doing so well today.
being on the outside, i’m only mildly interested in watching gold. What happens at $1,000/oz could be entertaining… i strongly suspect a repeat performance of the last time it got there.
Its done well, indeed. I have my eye on a possible DZZ position (for a trade, not investment).
DZZ is on my radar but only post election.
peter schiff:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10714.htm
the bright point to that article is the fact that the US will look less attractive to immigrants. hopefully they will choose other countries to migate, meaning less of a drain on our welfare system! which i personally feel that it is abused a way to often.
One thing perplexes me is that Schiff and Rogers refuse to acknowledge even slightly that foreign markets have, to a large extent, been driven by U.S. consumerism, and therefore are also set up for a fall. Certainly foreign markets - China, India, Russia, etc. are indeed obtaining their own momentum and will weather this downturn more than the U.S., nonetheless they will be extensively adversely affected. Oil demand will drop in China as their economy also sours. Their economy will sour because a vary high percentage of China’s income is manufacturing for U.S. companies. This income will be falling fast both due to U.S. economic fall and due to the weakness of the dollar vs. the Yuan. Same is true for India etc.
I think Schiff and Rogers are right in that the U.S. is losing its relative leadership role in the world economy, but they seem to act as if the U.S. and the rest of the world are completely decoupled from a production & demand standpoint, but completely tied from a commodities standpoint. Neither is true.
It’s a big pond and the ripples haven’t yet reached most foreign markets but they will and it will be a tsunami. Those foreign markets will get hit big time and suffer much worse the U.S. Not only do U.S. consumers drive the world economy but the U.S. also leads the world in innovation. Those foreign markets are merely inputs into the U.S. and when the U.S. suffers, they will suffer even more.
There will no change in economic leadership, the U.S. will reign for at least several more decades. There is not one country out there that wouldn’t switch economic places with the U.S. today or for many years to come.
The new flat earth theory = America is the sun around which the world revolves.
Bombay Sensex is already down ~40% from january peak. hows that for 6 months? When I was in India in Jan, people were lining up for the Reliance Power IPO, the mood is quite different now I believe.
Article about falling RE sales and values in SF, NM. Coming back later this year though.
http://www.santafenewmexican.com/Real%20Estate/Santa-Fe-real-estate-continues-slide
Santa Fe real estate continues slide
2nd quarter 2008 housing statistics
Bob Quick | The New Mexican
7/9/2008 - 7/9/08
Santa Fe real-estate sales and home prices fell again in the second quarter of this year.
Local real-estate agents and others in the industry said Wednesday they are confident that business will improve in the second half of 2008.
…
Love how CNBC is getting all over the ‘rumors’ floating about the street, but no one is standing up and clearly stating: THERE ARE RUMORS BECAUSE EVERYONE ON WALL STREET IS HIDING LOSSES AND PERFORMING OTHER ACCOUNTING SHENANIGANS.
If the firms such as Lehman actually had transparent books, they could then squash the rumors in no time….but they don’t.
What a mess.
CNBC has Breaking News: The Fed has opened the discount window for Freddie and Fannie.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25642228
When is it my turn to go to the Discount Window. I want my turn!
WTF ?
no double secret loan facility to hide all the bad paper in?
Discount Window my arse.
no wonder i can’t get decent yeilds on any CD’s the government lends way cheaper than I will
Bush: Hit the reset button!
Paulson: Hit THE RESET button!
Bernanke: Hit THE RESET BUTTON!
Japan, China, Europe: What is wrong with you guys. Hit the button!
Flashing in red: GAME OVER!
P.S: Who was the first Sec. of Treasure to disagreed with Bush and was fired? (I think he was from Alcoa). Is he smiling today?
Paul O’Neill. He’s a good man and I bet he is smiling. He has a nice smile, too.
The Golden State’s Not-So-Golden Goose
California set up a plan to invest state pension funds in socially responsible businesses. The results have been disastrous
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2008/db2008079_166137.htm
Stocks have made a sharp climb on word that Fed Chairman Bernanke stated the discount window would be open for Fannie Mae (FNM 10.17, -3.03) and Freddie Mac (FRE 8.35, +0.35), according to Reuters. The word gave investors reassurance that capital is available if the companies should need it. Stocks are now at their best level of the session.
DJIA = Cat on a hot tin roof
ok, so it shoots up on this news, then it falls again?
Bernanke dribbles the ball downcourt, wait, He’s going the wrong way!
dont walk, run like the wind: these two are goin down the rat hole.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Freddie Mac chief Richard Syron that his company and Fannie Mae could take advantage of the emergency discount window, said a source familiar with a conversation between Bernanke and Freddie Mac chief Richard Syron.
Bernanke and Syron spoke by phone Thursday afternoon and in that call the central bank chief said he intended the discount window to be open to the two companies, said a source familiar with the phone conversation.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25642228
Does this open the U.S. housing market to direct PPT intervention? Maybe real estate prices will soon start always going up again? (Never mind all them vacant houses…)
Massive Debt Fueling What Looks Like Long Recession:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25638964
Isn’t a long recession the same thing as a depression?
Neil, you are gonna love this,
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jul082008.html
Near the bottom, ‘Mr. Spengler concludes, “My advice to individual investors? Invest in some popcorn, because the next six months will be something to watch.”‘
*PARTY TIME* *PARTY TIME* *PARTY TIME*
Contract Amendments Accepted and Signed Off On. The Option Period is Over. The buyers are committed to buying.
Escape from Rockwall on 7.18
Going to stay a renter for a while.
Congratulations, Deep.
I’m just off to take a walk. When I get back I’ll sit on my deck and raise a glass of Rioja in your direction. Cheers!
Cheers Deep ……Isn’t it a relief.
IndyMac just failed! I got a WSJ alert in my mailbox:
_________________________________
NEWS ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal
July 11, 2008
IndyMac Bank, a prolific mortgage specialist that helped fuel the housing boom, was seized Friday by federal regulators in one of the largest bank
failures in U.S. history. The thrift was one of the largest savings and loans in the country, with about $32 billion in assets. It now joins an infamous list of collapsed banks, topped by Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Co., which failed in 1984 with $40 billion of assets. The bank will be run by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., a federal regulator, and will reopen Monday.
For more information, see:
http://wsj.com?mod=djemalertNEWS
I no longer have any $$$ with them but I’ve had IndyMac CDs in the past. We’re scrupulous to stay below the FDIC maximum, and I’m glad we do. Banks are going to fall like dominoes.
And nobody will be punished except for us careful savers and hardworking Taxpayers.
IndyMac is kaput!
Hey that commenter got his money out last week, right?
It was mighty hard to foresee that one!
Apparently a late Friday action:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080711/indymac.html?.v=9&.pf=real-estate
Office of Thrift Supervision shuts down IndyMac
Friday July 11, 7:59 pm ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Office of Thrift Supervision steps in and closes IndyMac Bank; FDIC takes over operations
LOS ANGELES (AP) — IndyMac Bank’s assets were seized by federal regulators on Friday after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.
Calling all bond holders……snap shut the liquidty trap and invert the curve. uhhh, howz that thingy supposed to work? The long end gonna get outa hand, most likely a cap coming up. Short end going nothing but lower now.
Housing bubble gets wrapped up right quick, and we got a another bubble fixin to blow…cant say what it might be.
ppppffffftttt….the oily flatulence bubble. its ok cuz
its just gas.
you’ll have to excuse me as usuall, voz is in his cups.
In the trenches,
turning wrenches
Phil Grahm CRACKER
(sorry, but I just had to say it)
so glad you did!
here’s one you aint gonna see very regularly:
“if you have money to deploy, follow your gut, we all have the things that are money. dont be scared of the oil, food, and metal….thats the currency move on the monkeys in the trenches turning wrenches. Short term US treasuries are going back to under 1%….and the long end is gonna get hammered, might even get capped……diversification from the dollar is important, and thus my holding of BWX….stellar performance today. Yen is gonna rally against the dollar, which shuts down the carry…..not investment advice, have a great weekend boyos.”
but I usually only tell my friends that stuff. Im just tryin to share.