July 15, 2008

Bits Bucket For July 15, 2008

Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.




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Comment by IllinoisBob
2008-07-15 04:31:16

Spanish Real-Estate Firm Martinsa
To File for Protection From Creditors

MADRID — Spanish real-estate company Martinsa-Fadesa SA will Tuesday file for protection from creditors after it was unable to secure new financing, in the strongest distress signal to date from the country’s once-buoyant construction sector.

With outstanding debt of €5.2 billion ($8.27 billion), Martinsa’s filing is the largest-ever in Spain and will likely send shock waves through a real-estate sector buffeted by plummeting home sales and tighter credit conditions, as well as the wider Spanish economy.

Madrid traders said the news, along with continuing concerns over the U.S. financial sector, was contributing to a sell-off on the Spanish stock market, which was down 2% at 11211 in morning trading. Among the biggest losers were heavily indebted companies such as Grupo Ferrovial SA, which lost 7%, and Sacyr-Vallehermoso SA, which declined 6%. Martinsa creditor Banco Popular SA fell 3.7%

 
Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 04:36:52

yes, just read the news here. The financial magic from the Zapatero government to keep the Spanish property market levitating is no longer working. Now lets see if this first domino can topple the invincible EU housing bubble. But I guess it’s just a cue for Tricky Trichet to provide even more easy money, keep all EU debtors happy and delay the final reckoning.

Meanwhile, EU stocks and especially the financials are getting hammered as a result of the credit crunch and subprime crisis. Fortis Bank was down nearly 20% in todays trading. I trust B-52 Ben to pour some more oil on the fire today ;-(

 
Comment by Lucy
2008-07-15 04:56:55

Ben, have you stopped doing the international B&B? If there’s not enough interest for a daily one, perhaps it could be weekly instead?

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 05:08:20

didn’t work, it quickly got polluted with loads of US topics.

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 05:25:23

Well, I for one would be willing to butt out of the International thread. It’s only fair, IMO.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 07:01:15

Nobody ever expects the Spanish Liquidation…

Comment by Waiting for the Fall
2008-07-15 08:15:26

Ha- Its only a flesh wound…

 
Comment by Otis Wildflower
2008-07-15 08:16:19

POKE HER.. WITH THE SOFT JT!!

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-07-15 04:33:06

Ms. Bair is another one that just refuses to understand/see that no matter what they do, home prices are going down.

“Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair, who has been one of the most outspoken officials calling for banks to ease up on struggling homeowners, said that the agency is “really focused” on keeping borrowers in their homes for both their sakes and to maximize IndyMac’s value for taxpayers. “We will very aggressively pursue loan-modification strategies for unaffordable loans to make them affordable on a long-term, sustainable basis,” Ms. Bair said in an interview Monday”.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121607890530252639.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-15 04:43:18

“…make them (loans) affordable on a long-term, sustainable basis…”

For so many that will mean wage slavery. Too bad Bair can’t utter a speculative peep about the future of wages - because they’re going down too.

Oh yeah, she’s on the morning talk shows today offering reassurances to the masses. Isn’t it early for that kind of thing? I mean, after all, Indy Mac was a widely known to be on the ropes - why is such direct reaasurance necessary at this point?

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 04:52:30

I just had a conversation with the manager of my bank (Fortis) that declined 20% in todays trading. Fortis is down more than 75% from about a year ago, time to get my money out. In Europe we only have 20K euro deposit insurance, and I don’t want to line up with all the other savers when it goes belly up (everyone assures me that can never happen, but well …).

Savers are going to be the big loosers and debtors (especially those with the maximum mortgage) are going to be the big winners in this epic battle. Also, I’m guessing that a large chunk of the savings with Dutch banks is not really owned by the savers, but really the collateral for their mortgage. It is profitable over here to take out the maximum loan amount (even if you don’t need a home loan) and put the money on a savings account, thanks to 50% HMD.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-15 05:03:25

Mmmm, I have to take an opposing stance here nhz. While acknowledging the immense pressure created by soaring commodity prices I also think that they’ve (the PTB) finally built the “perfect wealth transfer mouse trap”.

This simple trap functions just like the blades of a scissors. The lower blade is commodity prices and the upper blade is deflating (real)wages and housing prices…and J6P’s willy is caught between them.

Viola! Wealth is transfered to a degree not yet seen in modern history.

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Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 05:17:25

what I’m seeing (both in US and Europe) is loads of people who have lived way beyond their means for years, and probably will continue to do so (especially regarding their home) without ever paying for it. Someone has to live there if they stop paying the mortgage, and politicians will do what they can to keep the voters happy. Debtors are a majority these days.

If the system crashes, I’m sure the debts will be forgiven somehow as there is no way to get these people to pay off their debt anyway. In my country you can get rid of any debt within 3 years, you just have to live on the minimum wage during that period and hand in all extra income; but you can keep your car, all your toys and even a few thousands of cash.

The relatively small group of savers has been punished for years by negative real rates and (for those prudent enough NOT to buy a home) surging home prices. In some US areas it seems home prices are on track to attain normal levels again within 1-2 years, but in Europe that is impossible after price increases of 500-1000% in several countries.

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 07:57:14

Good post, nhz…what country are you in again?

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-15 11:02:33

nhz is in the Netherlands, or Holland.

 
 
Comment by fecaltime
2008-07-15 06:41:03

I would have never heard of Fortis bank except for the fact that I knew a former friend and scumbag who tried to influence me into ‘investing’ with Fortis several years ago. The upfront fees were outrageous and as far as I was concerned it was about his damn commission. For other reasons the friendship went sour about a year later.

Fecaltime!

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Comment by Pondering the Mess
2008-07-15 09:35:11

Taking all the money from the savers was one of the key goals. Savers, by the very nature of having savings, have more freedom than debtors. People who are not working 12-hour days at 2 jobs just to keep food on the table and make minimum payments on their debts tend to be more inclined to ask questions, learn things, and otherwise be a threat to the kleptocrats. Serfs, on the other hand, are easily controlled, hence the desire for a nation of serfs.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 13:17:01

Serf’s Up, let’s go hang 10

 
 
 
 
Comment by Matt_in_TX
2008-07-15 05:35:35

There was a discussion yesterday deriding investors for panicing.

Well, there ARE some situations where actions for the good of the individual is directly opposed to actions for the good of the group. Classical example is a military battle. The best strategy for individual survival is to keep your head down and let others die. The best thing for the group is for enough of the individuals to do the less personally optimal thing to discourage the enemy.

This is why battles used to be chancy affairs, best avoided by adroit maneuvering strategies. (At least prior to the arrival of more scientific training methods.) If the troops start to “break”, all the officers can do is run around yelling at them to stop running and do their duty.

The housing bubble and the stock market recently seems all about fleecing untrained investors. Expecting those untrained investors to stand the ir ground and not flee in panic to save themselves seems a bit silly. The generals should have kept us a bit farther away from this kind of situation.

Lots of “rallying” cries going about (I’m waiting for Ben Steins next broadside ;). This is usually not a good sign. When one unit breaks, even experienced troops in the next unit over are more likely to break…

Comment by Frank Hague
2008-07-15 06:26:00

I saw Ben Stein on Fox this weekend and his mantra was something to the effect of, “this is just a normal bear market” and “if you find a house you love you should buy it. And he gets paid for his insights. The world really has gone mad.

Comment by Gadfly
2008-07-15 08:21:52

Yeah, but when it comes to treating dry eyes . . . Ben’s da MAN!

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Comment by shakes
2008-07-15 07:32:40

You obviously have no military background!! The collective whole fighting in unison is much more powerful!! Did you see the movie Ants. The mass of ants could easily overpower the larger stronger grasshoppers. I have been to war and I have seen this first hand!! I am not bragging since bragging about something as horrible as war would be completely wrong. Units that fought together had a much higher statistic of bringing everyone back home and that is proven my friend!!

Comment by edhopper
2008-07-15 08:12:24

That would be “Bug’s Life” not “Ants”

On the military side. I think the poster was agreeing with what you said. The rational thing to do is run from a battle, but staying together gives a better chance at victory. Running doesn’t really ensure survival, since the enemy can give chase and mow you down from behind.

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Comment by Skip
2008-07-15 08:24:39

“We are not retreating - we are advancing in another Direction.”
— Douglas MacArthur

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 08:43:04

Can you advance towards a retreat?

Only if it’s Catholic

 
 
Comment by rms
2008-07-15 18:00:51

“Units that fought together had a much higher statistic of bringing everyone back home and that is proven my friend!!”

It’s not a sporting event either; overwhelming power brings home the troops alive! If the enemy uses AK47s under the cover of darkness then bring out the 30mm slaved to a night vision display. Better yet, solve the problem diplomatically.

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Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-07-15 05:50:28

make affordable” = new word meaning coerce the taxpayers

next up healthcare

Comment by exeter
2008-07-15 06:06:45

Heres an idea. Let’s coerce the non-taxpayers. ;)

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-07-15 06:32:21

they all get credits- mo free sht

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Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 07:13:26

Most of the non-tax payers are living like kings after their writeoffs and hiding their income overseas.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-07-15 07:42:07

Go after them….. with gusto.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by ahansen
2008-07-15 04:33:37

Mornin’ all.

I’m just enjoying the pre-dawn chill, waiting for the markets to open, and taking my first deep breath in nearly a month. Yesterday’s torrential cloudburst and flash flooding pretty much knocked out the fire that’s been bedeviling us. (40,000 acres up in smoke.)

The obvious metaphor does not escape me.

Thank you, Ben et al, for this wonderful forum. You guys keep me (partially,) sane.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 06:09:26

I’m glad to hear about the deluge…

fire doesn’t look good on you.

Comment by David
2008-07-15 07:27:56

If I am in the San Joaquin valley and want to buy some gold coins; can you recommend a good dealer? If you dont want to give the full name, maybe you can just say the first letter.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 07:30:41

I never make recommendations, not my speed.

Look up prospective coin dealers in the yellow pages and then google their name on the internet and see how they treat people.

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Comment by David
2008-07-15 14:21:48

Who uses the yellow pages anymore these days. I certainly dont want to keep a book on my desk thats plastered with advertising for sleezy lawyers. The phone company really messed up there advertising franchise by putting ads everywhere.

 
Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 17:43:26

You have internet obviously. Google coin dealers in the Valley. Um…Originally, I’m from Fresno, but haven’t bought coins in that city for decades. Anyhow I recommend avoiding rare coins and go for bullion. That means check out http://www.usmint.gov and look for its links to certified coin dealers that sell Buffalos, Eagles, and so forth. Then find web sites of those dealers nearest you. Finally check their references that they are in ANA and other numismatics organizations.

I buy rare coins occasionally - those are MS-65 Saint Gaudens. You think bullion is volatile, well rare coins are far more volatile. The best time to buy a Saint Gaudens MS-65 was in 2001. Stick to bullion for now.

I think interest rates will have to go up double digits. But while the ten year T-note is below 4% it’s save to keep buying some gold a little at a time. Above 4% I would think about holding. At 8% I would sell.

Remember, markets operate in cycles. This is the same with precious metals. I think there are several more years of upsides on precious metals, based on the incredible level of stupidity in both of the political parties running our country (nutcase Democrat Congress and the idiot Shrub in the White House). They are making the credit bubble worse with their ever increasing bailouts. Those are inflationary.

Make slow moves in investing, that way emotion will not govern you.

 
 
Comment by OB_Tom
2008-07-15 09:14:52

I bought my gold as allocated gold at Everbank. You can choose between having it delivered or stored in a vault in NYC (I did the lattter). I think you’ll get at better price, even if you include the shipping.

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Comment by honolulu renter
2008-07-15 12:20:23

If you expect the banking system to steward your gold for you in the middle of a financial crisis, you are missing the whole point of gold. Might as well buy T-bonds.

If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.

check goldismoney.info for dealer reviews.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-07-15 04:36:27

My GF were discussing what would be the next big thing, that would put Americans to work keep the money at home, cut our dependancy on foreign oil and would be great for the enviroment.

How about super duper high effiency solar panels for $5000 a house? or $10k for a mc mansion/ 2 family house.

imagine 50 million homes almost off the grid…

Comment by DcBob
2008-07-15 05:06:00

It will be nuclear. The jobs created by building just one plant are astronmical. However, it is unfortunate that we will not make any of the parts here. All are plants will be built by american/mexican workers but will be stamped made in China/Japan.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-15 05:12:38

No kidding, while working in power generation biz I learned that the Chinese were reverse engineering every gas/steam turbine part they could lay their hands on. It’s been going on for quite some time too.

Comment by packman
2008-07-15 05:34:23

The Chinese are very good at reverse engineering. It’s their form of capitalism.

(BTW I know of what I speak - my company sued a Chinese company for doing exactly that. It’s virtually impossible to win such lawsuits though.)

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Comment by denquiry
2008-07-15 07:26:40

ditto for SamSung

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-07-15 07:46:22

Ditto for Microsoft and Yahoo.

The copycat business model is hardly a Chinese invention.

 
Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-07-15 08:01:05

I used to work for a major aerospace manufacturer (aircraft), looking for a toehold in China.

Back in the early 90s, a whole bunch of them came over to begin a “partnership”. This consisted of being told by the PTB to let them make copies of EVERY DOCUMENT IN OUR DEPARTMENT, including some procedures that us drones at the shop lever had developed to improve work flow and/or decrease man/hours billed on specific projects.

This is when the light bulbs went off in our dumb country boy heads, that the typical upper management jackhole would sell his mother, if he thought it would do something to fill their pockets.

The good news is that us dumbsh#ts figured this out early, so:

-We didn’t bother to explain to them that the Maintenance Manuals are written by the company lawyers…..the Maintenance Manuals will get you there eventually, but there are more efficient ways of doing things.

-We stopped writing stuff down in company documents; started keeping it in our heads, or in our personal notes.

Rumor has it that this practice has become widespread in our industry. Heard a story about one of the major manufacturers wanted all their retiring engineers to turn in a report highlighting everything they had picked up, knowledge-wise, while troubleshooting aircraft avionics problems over their work history. Purpose: To start an “Expert System” (probably for the call center in Bangalore).

The reply was: “Screw you…….you guys aren’t screwing up my consulting job…..”

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 09:08:51

The secret to making Meissen Porcelain lasted just 7 years, as a secret is a story you tell one person at a time, then as now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meissen_porcelain

 
Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 17:48:18

Hey Gulfstream-fixer,

The kicker is that the client I contracted for has several first generation Asian Americans. They do exactly as you mention. They do not write down process or documentation. They remain employed. Those two sentences are tied together logically, huh? They don’t speak English well, nor write it well.

The bad thing - for them, is that they have expertise in only one area. No one else will hire them outside their expertise. When the big boss wakes up and realizes this, they will be back out on their pirate boats circling south China.

 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-07-15 05:35:37

I agree what we have done to our dumbed down country is disgraceful

We have no meaningful discussions or actions about nuclear plants, it’s just staggering what is going to happen this winter at $4-5 fuel oil.

I said it before, whoever gets sworn in on Jan 20th would have wished they didn’t win.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-15 07:37:34

Ain’t that the truth.

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Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 17:50:46

I’ve been upset about lack of nuclear power from way back, around the time Hanoi Jane was protesting Diablo Canyon in the ’70s. The French are way beyond us in nuclear energy. Fortunately big U.S. companies have been building nuclear plants outside the U.S. for years. They have expertise. All the nanny staters have to say is “Do it.”

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 05:09:56

The one problem with suburban solar energy is, that the panels must be facing due south, and a good percentage of houses in the ‘burbs don’t work, because rooflines are on a east-west axis.

Add NIMBY’ism into the mix and complicate matters even more…

Comment by packman
2008-07-15 05:38:31

Very true. While panels can be put on homes whose roofs face east/west, it’s not as efficient and almost no one will do it since it’s so much more an eyesore.

NIMBY is definitely a factor - IMO incentives are needed to counteract this - e.g. charge lower electric rates for people who live closest to power plants.

Comment by polly
2008-07-15 06:18:20

Who decided it is an eyesore? Are the panels so much uglier than a roof? Is a roof all that attractive? There is nothing particularly unattractive about solar panels. They aren’t art, but neither is a roof.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 06:22:53

Right now, in our nation based upon looks, not performance…

They are deemed unsightly.

 
Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 07:00:46

a bit similar to the situation with wind power I think. In my country (that owes much of its land and wealth to ancient windpower) windmills are currently considered an eyesore in the landscape, while all the far more ugly infrastructure for the electricity grid seems to be no problem at all (the electricity companies even boast about their ‘beautifully designed’ towers). However, the large power companies do like the biggest windmills (they are too expensive for individuals or small private enterprise). Clearly beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

 
Comment by packman
2008-07-15 07:19:59

“Who decided it is an eyesore? ”

Same people that decided that Rosie O’Donut is an eyesore - pretty much everyone.

I’m not saying that solar panels are an eyesore. I’m saying that massive objects jutting out perpendicular to rooftops are an eyesore.

Additionally you don’t nearly get much surface area coverage in houses that face east or west, so you can put less solar panels on such rooftops.

Most people don’t realize that solar panels actually have a fairly short life span - only about 40-50 years. Given the energy to make and to destroy/recycle them (not to mention the environmental impact), and their relative inefficiency anyhow, solar panels in general are a lot more inefficient than most people think.

Don’t get me wrong - they are still efficient when used in the right context, and IMO should be used more than they are. I own stock in ESLR in fact, since I think the world is waking up to this, and solar will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. “The right context” though generally means:

- In residential applications - south-facing roofs mostly
- Homes in southern and/or sunny areas (e.g. not very helpful in Seattle etc.)
- Flat commercial buildings (solar panels are *way* underused in this context)
- Open land

 
Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 08:02:59

40-50 year lifespan for solar panels inefficient - how does that compare to current new home construction in the US?
I guess they should make el cheapo panels with a 10 year lifetime to match ;-)

 
Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-07-15 08:16:09

If these so-called “developers” would actually do some developing, they could orient the properties/lots to optimize the south exposure.
Same with the structure itself; even if solar was not initially incorporated in the house, lots of things can be designed in to minimize power consumption and/or make it easier to incorporate new technologies.

 
Comment by Skip
2008-07-15 08:33:17

In residential applications - south-facing roofs mostly

I think it depends on the location. In Texas, I use the vast majority of my electricity in the summer running my air conditioner. A panel on the West facing portion of my roof would be better than one on the South face as I use natural gas for heat in the winter.

 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2008-07-15 06:59:33

Agree completely. I’ll let the nuke plant HAVE some my backyard if I can get free electric for life.

:)

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Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 07:06:04

in the sixties the government promised my area in the Netherlands free electricity for life if they accepted a nuclear power plant; they said electriciy meters would be removed from all homes. The plant was built, but the electricity is still not free (in fact, we have the highest rates in the country).
Dutch government is pushing for a second nuclear reactor in the area now and I don’t doubt they will promise free electricity or billions in other favors again (without ever making good on these promises, of course). With all the nice talk about how safe and environmentally friendly nuclear is, I don’t understand why they don’t build the stuff near Amsterdam or The Hague where most of the users and the politicians are :(

 
 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2008-07-15 07:35:26

Sorry, I think solar panels look cool. I’ve always felt that way. Space age and stuff.

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Comment by NotInMontana
2008-07-15 08:17:57

How do they hold up in hailstorms?

 
 
Comment by shakes
2008-07-15 07:42:59

I have solar panels on my roof and for several months I would ask people who came to my door. “Did you see my solar panels?” and there answer was always NO. I have a 2 story home with 2 gables which only slightly obstruct their view. I thought at least a few people would recognize them. I have had 1 individual in the last year come up to my house and ask me questions about them but that is it. I have 27 panels and they provide over $200 in electricity. Well worth the ‘eyesore’!!

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Comment by zeropointzero
2008-07-15 08:07:53

I assume you mean $200 a month in electicity.

How much did the panels cost, including installation? Did you get any local or federal subsidies or tax breaks?

Finally, where are you located?

Congrats on going solar. I hope the efficiencies increase and more people can do it!

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 08:11:35

My friend installs solar systems and he’s got more business than you can shake a stick at, presently.

It went from being the right thing to do environmentally, to being the right thing to do economically.

 
Comment by AKron
2008-07-15 09:23:35

Re solar panels… wind actually has a much better return on investment than solar panels (i.e. better KW per dollar invested) as long as you live in a region with a fair amount of breeze (oddly enough, even if you don’t feel that your area is breezy, above tree/house level there usually is some breeze). And weatherizing your house and putting various heat exchangers, etc., to capture waste heat has an even better ROI than wind.
Nuclear… I have a lot of knowledge about that particular field and I shift from being pro-nuclear to anti-nuclear and back on a regular basis. I think the only way to be a total booster (or a total detractor) is to either (1) be paid to have the opinion or (2) not know much about nuclear energy.
[BTW you'll never believe how much rigamarole you have to go through to buy just a few microcuries of plutonium...]

 
 
 
Comment by hd74man
2008-07-15 14:15:09

RE: The one problem with suburban solar energy is, that the panels must be facing due south, and a good percentage of houses in the ‘burbs don’t work,

I constructed a super-efficient (R-72 ceiling/R-45 walls) solar home in 1980. 2000 sf. heated with about 2.5 cords of wood and $600.00 of electric back-up. The house was located near Bangor, ME. In the course of ownership I figured I saved $30/40k in energy costs.

Being familiar with the solar site orientation process, I would often advise (in the process of a bank appraisal), that people might want to take advantage of the southern facing attributes of their land in the design and construction of their new home.

I might as well been the Man from Mars with the looks I got.
One couple even reported me as being “blantantly obnoxious” in my suggestions to a bank VP.

Lesson learned…The majority of people are ignorant f*cks and deserve the depression they are going to get.

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2008-07-15 06:34:13

RE: How about super duper high effiency solar panels for $5000 a house? or $10k for a mc mansion/ 2 family house.

What about those hundreds of thousands of low-rent fuel ineffiecient Section 8 tenements layin’ about in the Bronx?

What do they do?

Comment by Al
2008-07-15 06:51:42

Burn expensive oil.

Comment by hd74man
2008-07-15 09:05:51

RE: Burn expensive oil.

That you pay for via your generous tax donation to the welfare system!

Like where in the Constitution does it say you’re responsible for fillin’ somebody else’s fuel oil tank.

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Comment by Al
2008-07-15 09:27:56

Is the govt responsible for paying the heating bills on those places? Hydro, water, etc too? I honestly don’t know much about section 8.

 
Comment by wolfgirl
2008-07-15 10:46:09

The mother of one of my son’s friends lives in section 8 housing and worries aboout her power bill. The son helps all he can.

 
 
 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 07:16:09

what would be the next big thing, that would put Americans to work keep the money at home, cut our dependancy on foreign oil and would be great for the enviroment.

Birth control and reduced immigration policies.

Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 17:55:17

Actually the combination would reduce production in America and therefore lead to a depression. I don’t like illegal immigration only for the reason that the wussy Demoncraps make you and I pay for the illegals’ health care and their children’s education.

The next big thing is the space solar energy plant. Scientific American and Popular Science way back in the 70s was pushing for this. Power would be beamed to earth.

Progress is too slow. I wish my birth was delayed to 2159. Government and the lovers of government are the biggest obstacles to technological progress.

 
 
 
Comment by packman
2008-07-15 04:38:29

Futures down big this morning, tracking the Asian and European markets which are down big.

Dollar index down to 4-month lows - 71.4; nearing all-time low again.

Ruh-roh Shaggy. This thing’s got momentum and it’s looking like nothing can stop it at this point.

Comment by packman
2008-07-15 04:41:34

In specific news - Lehman’s talking about going private, and another big round of layoffs at GM.

I’m thinking this unemployment pause at 5.5 is just temporary.

Comment by hd74man
2008-07-15 06:38:04

RE: another big round of layoffs at GM.

It’s a death spiral at GM.

They will file BK to get out of their pension and health care obligations. Ford and Chrysler will follow.

WTF-If the GSE’s and Wall St. gangsters get bailed, why TF not.

The system’s been looted.

Might as well burn it all into the ground.

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 07:24:52

Can’t burn it to the ground until the Robber Barons move all of their assets to Swiss bank accounts.

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Comment by In Colorado
2008-07-15 09:10:18

I’m thinking this unemployment pause at 5.5 is just temporary.

I don’t see why? After all, we all know that the 5.5% number is BS. So if the real number goes up, why should the phony number track it?

 
 
Comment by Dave of the North
2008-07-15 04:44:55

Dow 11,000, we hardly knew ye?

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 04:55:49

Wow, how low can it go? Seems like only yesterday it was at 13,000.

Comment by wmbz
2008-07-15 05:12:05

I heard a talking head yesterday say next support is 10,725. I have no idea myself, a chartist may be able to explain.

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Comment by combotechie
2008-07-15 05:16:50

“Wow, how low can it go?”

If you need to ask a question such as that then the answer will shock you.

Stay tuned.

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Comment by packman
2008-07-15 05:46:33

The other day I posted my thought - that in reality the stock markets have been bubble territory since the mid-80’s. IMO the true value of the Dow is about 6,000 or so, and S&P at about 800. I think they’ll get down there, and may even overshoot some; short of some other bubble propping them up.

Along those lines, this was posted a couple of days later:

http://www.theonion.com/content/index/4429

 
Comment by nycjoe
2008-07-15 05:51:57

I thought we were just warming up until we got under 10K. How many more weeks?

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 06:10:24

Wouldn’t hurt my feelings if the market went to zip. Then maybe shareholders in companies would be more interesting in company products, services, management and policies. The problem with the market as it stands now is that companies aren’t valued for what they offer to the public in the way of products or services, which is the real value.

 
Comment by combotechie
2008-07-15 06:12:19

I’m looking for the P/E of the S&P500 to go under 10 over the next year or so. That’s when I plan to come out of cash and go into stocks.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-07-15 09:11:30

The problem with the market as it stands now is that companies aren’t valued for what they offer to the public in the way of products or services, which is the real value.

Amen!

 
 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-15 04:46:08

Ah, those sweet long gone days when a little emergency rate cut would cure what ails ya.

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 04:54:52

never underestimate B-52 Ben; there are always more options for dollar destruction.

 
Comment by KenWPA
2008-07-15 05:14:45

We could actually start seeing more and more people lining up at banks to withdrawl their money, in order to get under the FDIC guarantees. Not a bad thing, but it could very well end up pushing some banks into insolvency even faster than expected.

Going to be some interesting times, and a couple of interest rate cuts aren’t going to do anything to fix the problems at this point.

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 05:27:19

yes, I’m wondering how that will play out in Europe with its louse 20K deposit insurance and even bigger real estate leverage. Most people can access their accounts over the internet, and although you usually cannot transfer within a day without paying a heavy penalty, once panic sets in some banks could be insolvent very soon.

But the banks still don’t understand, they are still offering fixed rate mortgages at rates below 5% over here (in Netherlands, that means effectively 2.5%), while EU inflation is 4%. Getting into debt is still extremely attractive here for those with no assets. And I think the banks understand that most savers have no real alternatives (putting your money into physical gold or Treasuries near the all time high in prices is pretty risky too).

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Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 17:57:26

We could actually start seeing more and more people lining up at banks to withdrawl their money,

I would pull up my lawnchair and a bag of popcorn (and a Fat Tire beer) and sit down and watch them and laugh.

Human lemming follies!

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Comment by Asparagus
2008-07-15 04:48:23

My mother called yesterday. This Fannie and Freddie stuff scares the daylights out of her. She heard the word “trillions” and warning bells began ringing.

If you new her, you’d know this is not a good sign.

Comment by hd74man
2008-07-15 14:19:21

RE: My mother called yesterday. This Fannie and Freddie stuff scares the daylights out of her. She heard the word “trillions” and warning bells began ringing.

If you new her, you’d know this is not a good sign.

It outta be scarin’ the bejesus out of everybody.

FNMA and FRE are the dead canaries in the world economy mine.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 04:53:01

With the first bank run in the books, we are entering a new phase of fear…

People are going to be afraid of leaving money in the bank, but where else can you stick it?

Let’s look at the usual options:

1. cash in the mattress
2. stocks
3. bonds
4. real estate

#1 seems the safest and the scariest all at the same time, combined with the Dollar continually getting whacked, losing buying power

#2’s, 3 & 4? fughedabout it, they are all on the downslope and there’s no FDIC to hold your hand, should financial impropriety rear it’s ugly head.

Comment by Asparagus
2008-07-15 05:05:40

I’m now considering covered calls using call options that are waaaayyyy in the money.

 
Comment by Lucy
2008-07-15 05:08:23

Aladinsane, and other PM bulls, i would be very interested in your views on the relative merits of different PMs. Is gold much better than say Silver or Platinum as an investment and if so why? Thanks in advance for any advice.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 05:24:29

Silver is bulky and more of an industrial metal, than a precious metal.

Platinum/Palladium’s main use is in catalytic converters, and has no long history of being money, like Gold.

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Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-07-15 07:30:43

Gold is all I talk about, but I don’t invest in it — I just buy it as a store of wealth and I consider it profit neutral. I keep a free online chart/database that compares Gold, Silver, NYMEX and DJIA which helps give me some insights into good times to buy strictly based on price movements, not on supply/demand issues.

Lately I’ve been purchasing silver because it is extremely liquid and is available in small denominations. These are easier for barter, which I do use silver dollars for at local farmer’s markets, restaurants, and a few service stores (oil change, etc). I’ve entered into nice silver trade agreements with quite a few local business owners, and have a few customers pay me in silver, too. Remember, a US SIlver Eagle had $1 face value, so you pay tax based on $1 of income, not $19. Nice little loophole that the PTB have taken advantage of for decades and no one talks about it. I wonder how GWB and HC get their annual paychecks, hah.

Gold for me has always held its value, even when I was purchasing gold in a declining time frame (before it started its ascent from $278 I was buying it on the way down). At that time, the dollar was seemingly getting more powerful, so my gold’s value falling was not a big deal. When gold started its upswing against the dollar, the dollar was obviously getting weaker. For me, gold was neutral.

I don’t invest in the markets because I think anyone who isn’t a day trader and invests long in any market is fooling themselves. Investments pay dividends, hearty ones. It is far easier to invest $10k to $50k in a local business that you can control a bit, and get a reasonable dividend, than invest it into the stock market as a gamble in hopes of the stock price going up, with no dividend issued.

Recently a local restaurant was announced, run by a VERY popular TV show chef. I won’t mention names, but he’s doing something very wise: opening in Chicago’s Loop near the financial district, with an inexpensive restaurant, not a ritzy one. He’s running it himself. He’s looking for $1.2m to invest, and believes it’ll realize up to 20% dividends after 3 years (no rent for the first 3 years per their lease). At $60k per share, it’s a feasible investment for anyone who has just a year’s income set aside — which a wise saver would have by the age of 25 or 28. Restaurants are VERY competitive and don’t last, often, but I’ve taken those risks and won almost always, by looking at the market and the business plan.

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Comment by pt_barnum_bank
2008-07-15 10:18:32

Please send me details of this restaurant. pt_barnum_bank at the yahoo dot com. Thanks.

 
Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-07-15 10:38:49

You have GOT TO BE KIDDING. It’ rare enough for any average person to make 60K a year by the time their 25. What planet are you living on?

At 25, most people who will ever make 60K or more are barely coming out of college, and loaded with debt for that to boot.

Most jobs that pay that much are in areas with astronomical living costs. I don’t care if the “wise saver” is yoda himself, you’re not saving a year’s salary a year after coming out of college.

Unless someone else paid for college…..

You do realize that median family income in the US is under 50K right? and that’s BEFORE taxes, rent/mortgage, energy, food, and everything else you need to live.

Please enlighten us as to how, on 48K, even the WISEST PERSON IN THE UNIVERSE could possibly save up 60K by the time they’re 25 or 28?

 
Comment by Zhang Fei
2008-07-15 13:03:12

Please enlighten us as to how, on 48K, even the WISEST PERSON IN THE UNIVERSE could possibly save up 60K by the time they’re 25 or 28?

Asia and Europe have high savings rates* because a lot of kids live with their parents. In many cases, after getting married. In Asia at least, they cover their share of the bills.

* Note that I’m not commenting on whether high savings rates are a good idea - it simply means their asset bubbles are bigger than ours. They don’t really make more money - their savings merely accumulate faster, making for asset bubbles that have to be seen to be believed. This is why the Japanese stock market is less than 1/3 of its high two decades ago, and the real estate market is 1/10 of its high two decades ago. The problem, as always, is too much savings chasing too few profitable investment opportunities.

In fact, the really unfortunate thing is that some of that foreign money has fed our asset bubbles over the last several years. But in truth, most of that foreign money stayed home - I wouldn’t be surprised if their bubbles were even bigger than ours.

 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-15 13:24:38

“In fact, the really unfortunate thing is that some of that foreign money has fed our asset bubbles over the last several years. But in truth, most of that foreign money stayed home - I wouldn’t be surprised if their bubbles were even bigger than ours.”

If it were not for foreign moneys coming into this country and buying US Treasuries our real interest rates would be about 5% higher. Americans are not buying US Treasuries, buyers are China, India, Brazil, Russia, Norway, Abu Dhabi, UAE etc. etc. etc. The artificially low interest rates on our treasuries added fuel to our bubbles.

 
Comment by Zhang Fei
2008-07-15 18:40:59

Americans are not buying US Treasuries

I’m afraid that’s untrue. Americans own more Treasuries than every foreign country holder added together. In addition, a sizable chunk of that “foreign” money may come from Americans evading taxes via investments in offshore bank accounts and hedge funds.

 
Comment by Zhang Fei
2008-07-15 19:00:43

If it were not for foreign moneys coming into this country and buying US Treasuries our real interest rates would be about 5% higher.

I wouldn’t be so sure that real interest rates would have been 5% higher - a lot of people invested in the stock market precisely because Treasury rates were so low. Higher rates might have attracted more savings into CD’s and more domestic money into Treasuries. Besides, the principal benefit of higher interest rates is that a housing bubble of this magnitude would never have formed. Still, the only way to have kept foreign money out would have been to put in foreign exchange controls, which introduce a whole different set of economic distortions and aren’t really an option for a country with the world’s reserve currency. It’s just as well - in future, foreigners who have been burned by our internet and credit bubbles (via MBS’s and ABS’s) will learn to be a little more careful before they invest in American assets.

At the same time, I can also see why they do it anyway. Their domestic bubbles are probably way bigger than ours. Net-net, at the peak of the 80’s Japanese asset mania, the Japanese were better off investing in American real estate than investing in Japanese real estate - many broke even at best in US real estate, but lost their shirts in Japanese real estate.

 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-15 05:09:46

You forgot one…

#5. Some stripper’s g string

For those, like me, with more Georges than Bennies.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 05:35:09

When inserting that Quarter with the father of our country between and betwixt said G string, do you ever worry about getting a “Quarterback Sack”

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Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 18:11:32

Some stripper’s g string

That’s one area worth looking into.

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Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 05:34:05

sure, I was planning to move 50% into gold (currently just a few % invested) but could not find a good entry point in the treacherous market of the last two years. And the trouble is that the only bank that is offering gold accounts in my country will probably be the first to collapse; they were taken over by another bank (Fortis) that has trouble digesting the purchase.

I’m weary of stepping into gold at this time, because almost anything is going down now including most metals, agri commodities etc. You can easily loose 10% in a few weeks. I guess it depends on the tricks from B-52 Ben and Paulson what will happen in the next days/weeks. IF gold breaks out now it could be a huge move …

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 05:46:13

There might be a good entry point for non-U.S. investors into our stock market over the next few years. That is where I would go if I were sitting where you are (but not too quickly!)…

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 05:59:08

Professor…

Put yourself in the position of a foreigner that has been getting whacked not only on his Dollar-denominated investments, but also gets to watch our stock market collapse, as an added bonus?

And you think they’ll be eager to do more of the same?

 
Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 07:51:30

I agree with aladinsane, it all looks different (more complicated) from a Euro perspective. I often get whacked on my precious metal stocks despite very nice nominal gains, as a result of dollar exchange losses etc. We not only have to guess where the stocks are going, but also where the dollar/euro rate is going.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 08:03:49

nhz…

You bring up a VERY Important fact.

Gold hasn’t done much in Euro terms vs. the Greenback, and the going is getting plenty weird across the pond, a place where Gold has traditionally been the fallback position, financially.

Imagine the contango, when Gold starts going up in Euro terms and takes off like a rocket in Dollars?

 
Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 18:03:44

The last 4 posts in this thread (since my post) supports dollar cost averaging, buying a little at a time in diverse investments (gold, T-bills, savings bonds, notes, stocks). But then I get flack. I’ve been doing this for 8 years in all those areas.

The worst scenario almost never occurs. Julian Simon is the name of the man people need to google.

If all factors stay the same, we are SCREWED - BIG TIME.

Problem for us pessimists, - One or more of the factors changes. Then we have morning in America.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 05:55:47

“And the trouble is that the only bank that is offering gold accounts in my country will probably be the first to collapse; they were taken over by another bank (Fortis) that has trouble digesting the purchase.”
_____________________________________________________

I had physical Gold in a retirement account that was in Morgan Stanley’s capable hands (the actual metal was held in the Bank of Delaware, I think), and I received a nice 3 part brochure in April of 07′ that had hidden in it, the wording that Morgan Stanley couldn’t be held responsible for the loss of my metal, if they went out of business or had financial problems, as per SIPC rules.

Exit, stage left.

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Comment by auger-inn
2008-07-15 06:34:16

You might consider http://www.goldmoney.com if you are opposed to holding the physical and have a concern about banks. Just fyi.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 07:38:58

What do you all really know about these companies that merely add another layer between you and your money?

It’s the same sort of blind faith being practiced on Wall Street…

Trust yourself, instead.

 
Comment by auger-inn
2008-07-15 08:40:51

Alad, NHZ was inquiring about where to buy gold outside of holding physical, as I interpreted it at any rate.
goldmoney was started by James Turk, a reknown gold guru and analyst. I do have some funds with them but a very small amount as a percentage of my net worth.
The deal with Goldmoney is that the client has the choice of locations for storage of their physical, either Viamat (a well known/respected storage/vault) in London, Zurich or New York. Audits are done bi-annually by a well known accounting firm and the deposit is insured by Lloyd’s of London. Goldmoney deals in 4 currencies in order to avoid having to incur exchange charges at the originating bank. They charge a fixed percentage to buy and sell but VERY SMALL storage fees. All in all, while not perfect, it is as well organized a system as one could envision.
You yourself have said several times that your gold is overseas so clearly you are in conflict with your earlier statement about holding physical.
It’s my opinion only, but I don’t feel it safe to hold one’s eggs all in one location. Goldmoney is a very good diversification strategy for those who have a large amount of capital to deploy into gold and are looking for different long term holding locations. I wouldn’t put it all into any one location and this applies to goldmoney as well. I have a swiss bank holding and I can assure you that they charge me a large multiple of what goldmoney charges me for both storage and purchases. I highly recommend goldmoney but of course do your own research. Oh, you can also buy silver now through goldmoney. Hope this helps.

 
Comment by packman
2008-07-15 09:16:12

Auger - I’ve thought about goldmoney as well. Just curious - do they allow you to see and/or extract your physical gold?

Also - what are you guys’ plans for logistics if this gold is needed? Do you plan to move yourself and family to these other countries, or to extract the gold and bring it to the U.S.? If the latter - how do you plan to get it through customs? They have rules about transporting significant quantities do they not? (Rules which if the SHTF are likely to get much more restrictive).

I’ve been hesitant to store any physical gold overseas. Seems like Canada would be a better non-U.S. location.

(P.S. Apologies to Ben for this tangent - maybe it’s time to spin back up the M&M blog!)

 
Comment by auger-inn
2008-07-15 10:49:32

Packman, it’s my understanding that you can in fact take delivery of your gold. Although I believe it has to be in 400oz increments, not sure. Just go to the web site and all the questions are answered there. Otherwise you can email them with a question from the site if you have one not answered.

If gold was not available for purchase here in the US then I would probably consider having it shipped back, assuming legally that wasn’t a problem.
The whole point of overseas storage surrounds that of confiscation. Canada has pretty close ties with the US and perhaps may go along with the theft. If you are not concerned with confiscation then there are lots of storage options here in the US.
Switzerland has a long standing reputation of banking privacy as well as supporting depositors. Obviously this can change in the future. There isn’t any fool proof way except to take physical possession and hide it, which I recommend for at least part of your holdings.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 13:29:08

“Switzerland has a long standing reputation of banking privacy as well as supporting depositors.”

Ask the 20,000 people who are now in danger of being audited by the IRS, how much they like their UBS Swiss Bankers?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/29/ubs.banking

 
Comment by tutto incognito
2008-07-15 16:48:20

Gee, why is everyone interested in Gold now… and these are HBB types. think when part of the sheeple will get interested… Gold has a history to be able to explode… make sure you have your own rocket to ride!
Tutto

 
 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-07-15 07:29:36

Try bullionvault.com to buy physical gold, too.

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Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 18:24:39

I don’t buy mail order. I take cash into the dealer’s shop, don’t sign any papers, leave them the cash they verified in their green counting machines, and walk out with my Eagles. I throw out the invoice, BTW.

 
 
Comment by ronsalinas
2008-07-15 08:55:14

“I’m weary of stepping into gold at this time, because almost anything is going down now including most metals’

It’s fun to watch the ‘gold bug’s’ postings and thought processes. While I do own gold and silver coins because I enjoy looking at them, I prefer to own gold in the form of jewelry rather than something stored somewhere for the future. There is always somewhere to make money in the marketplace and it makes more sense to ferret out those opportunities. I could have made far more money in the long run had I taken the money invested in coins and bought Microsoft or Google stock.

Questions to ponder: How much does it cost to store safely the physical gold? Buy the stocks that buy gold, how do you really know they have possession of the physical gold? Buy gold bars, you have to pay for assay costs don’t you? Buy gold stock and aren’t you counting on the assessed value of unknown underground reserves and the future stability of the government in power? Seems that the safest way to deal in gold is to be a day trader in the commodity.

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Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 18:14:29

It costs me just the amount of time to open a checking account. I don’t pay safe deposit box fees. I have only to keep a minimum amount of $ in my checking accounts.

 
 
 
Comment by floridian
2008-07-15 10:03:58

You forgot #5, Gold and silver coins hidden all over your home and gardens. You’ll need to draw a treasure map for later: just scan it, and store it as a password-protected PDF file in 2 fire-proof locations.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:10:07

The bad guys are cognizant that people are and will be hiding money, so I don’t suggest any of you hide it in your mattress or under the begonias.

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Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 17:59:35

Went to work today. Worked 11 hours. Road was the usual amount of traffic to work. Busy 36-person meeting in the conference room all day. Continued writing software code. Drove out of the office 7pm. Road was as busy as usual.

People are still earning their paychecks. Sun came up today. Where’s the panic?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 05:13:51

This might not be a bad time to review one of my favorite IMF reports, which I posted on an occasional basis in the early days of this blog:

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, April 2003 — Chapter 2: When Bubbles Burst [PDF]

Table 2.1 in the report suggests this equity bear market may have only just begun, as the median contraction in real equity (stock) prices in historic bear markets has exceeded 40 pct. However, where we are at the moment is a bit hard to gauge, given the amount by which U.S. stock prices have already fallen from the perspective of foreign investors, due to the decline in the dollar.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-07-15 04:40:57

For heavens sakes Mr. Bernanke you have inflation bombs bursting all around you, of course since you folks don’t count food and energy, it’s not that bad in your calculations.

Bernanke Foiled as Fannie-Freddie Rescue Thwarts Forecasts…Bernanke last month said that the risks of a “substantial downturn” had diminished, and committed to “strongly resist” any jump in inflation expectations. The remarks spurred traders to bet the Federal Open Market Committee would raise its benchmark rate by year-end.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ao02P6Lgor28&refer=news

 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-15 04:42:36

“As it began operating IndyMac Monday, the government estimated the failure’s cost could shave 18 basis points off the Deposit Insurance Fund’s reserve ratio, lowering it to 1.01%.”
American Banker

“…The Treasury has taken another big step on the road to Utter Fiscal Obfuscation. It is doing everything it can to disguise the fact that it is entering in commitments that create potentially massive contingent liabilities for the US tax payer. Even if the purpose served by this increase in contingent liabilities is worth the cost, the manner in which it is done is designed to avoid fiscal accountability. This is as welcome to the Executive as it is to the Congress…..”
Willem Buiter
FT

“…The financial system is at a crossroads. At current market prices, the system remains under-capitalised despite some $350bn (€220bn, £176bn) of capital-raising over the past 12 months. More over, given the collapse in their equity prices, a growing number of institutions, including such behemoths as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the mortgage agencies, are essentially un able to raise capital without government help. The longer this situation prevails, the higher the risk the financial system will face difficulties in raising other financing critical to day-to-day operations. This would accelerate forced sales of assets into illiquid markets, leading to another downward leg in an already vicious negative spiral….”
Mr. Mohamed El-Erian
FT

Or as Ms. Yves Smith comments “Welcome to the banana republic club…Membership is open, with the sole requirement being that nominees correctly discern behaviors in advanced economies that resemble those of corrupt developing countries, which for sake of convenience are referred to as banana republics.”

Comment by IllinoisBob
2008-07-15 05:11:36

Thinking of gov bailout costs: IMHO, the FDIC’s chairman new policy of halting foreclosures is a cool idea, BUT what about the $?

IndyMac Reopens, Halts
Foreclosures on Its Loans

IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the failed thrift, reopened its doors under federal control Monday and promptly moved to toss ailing homeowners a lifeline by halting all foreclosures on the mortgages it owns.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair, who has been one of the most outspoken officials calling for banks to ease up on struggling homeowners, said that the agency is “really focused” on keeping borrowers in their homes for both their sakes and to maximize IndyMac’s value for taxpayers. “We will very aggressively pursue loan-modification strategies for unaffordable loans to make them affordable on a long-term, sustainable basis,” Ms. Bair said in an interview Monday.

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 05:39:30

what about the savers who had more than 100K in their accounts - were there just a few left, or are they considered so stupid that they are not worth discussion? At least it seems from this statement that taxpayers are now more important than savers …

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2008-07-15 09:53:08

Savers?

Nobody cares about them anymore - gotta hand out a few more months of free rent to the f’d buyers who have IndyMac mortgages, because taking money from the producers and giving it to the wasters is ‘merican!

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Comment by bluprint
2008-07-15 06:53:54

the failed thrift

What is meant by “thrift”? I’ve seen that several times in the last few days looking at the IndyMac issue but don’t know what it means.

Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-07-15 07:37:11

A thrift is the short form for the term “savings and loan association” which is an organization, like a bank, that primarily takes in deposits as savings and loans them out as mortgages. They’re called building societies in the UK.

Because thrifts are allowed to defraud the depositors using the money multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking, we have thrift failures quite often, on average every 19 years you’ll have a bunch fail. See “It’s a Wonderful Life” for more on thrifts.

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Comment by bluprint
2008-07-15 08:08:59

Thanks.

On a side note, I saw your, shall I say tirade?, about CPA’s the other day, and specifically what you called “snitch fees”. I’m curious if you would elaborate on that? Obviously you’ve had a bad experience with one or more accountants…

One reason that I’m interested, is that I am currently working on an accounting degree and intend to get my CPA once the schooling is done. During my education, “ethics” has been a significant focus, but generally I haven’t been told anything that would indicate an accountant should “snitch.” In fact, while they do encourage an accountant not to do business with a client who is, for example, evading taxes, client confidentiality is still a priority even in such a case and client information should only be shared in specific examples out of the control of the accountant, such as a subpeona (and also some other times not really related to this discussion like peer review).

But that’s all academic…my personal view is that while an accountant doesn’t have the legal protection provided to a lawyer with regard to client confidentiality (e.g. attorney-client privilage) I would tend to practice in a manner as close to that as legally possible.

 
Comment by Skip
2008-07-15 08:52:40

However, accountants are quickly taught that there is no place for morals in accounting.

Something may be morally wrong, but as long as its legal, its A-OK.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-15 09:08:39

I can buy that, mostly anyway. It’s a personal judgement thing. I wouldn’t outright lie even if it were legal, but I won’t necessarily reveal everything I know to a counter party of my client (e.g. if it’s within the bounds of the law, not reveal things about the condition of a building unless my client specifically says to do so. If asked specifically about the condition by the other person I would simply state that they should get their own inspection done and make clear I am not a reliable source to determine if the condition of the biulding is up to their standards). If I represent someone, I’m going to do so as vigorously as possible, within the bounds of law, personal ethics and professional requirements (the AICPA can pull a license for certain behavior).

My feeling is, when involved for example in some contractual process, it is up to the other person to protect his interest and it’s up to my client (and me by extension) to protect our interests, that includes any knowledge that might provide a competitive advantage.

Mostly, I just wanted to know what Dada was referring to with “snitch fees” and where the feelings about accts came from.

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 09:35:02

bluprint, I have my own business and think that CPAs provide a valuable service in navigating a corrupt environment, and you shouldn’t second guess your career choice if it makes you happy. CPAs are like lawyers…in an ideal world without a dysfunctional IRS you wouldn’t need one, but they more than pay for themselves in the non-ideal world in which we are forced to operate.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by bizarroworld
2008-07-15 04:44:20

Scramble Led to Rescue Plan on Mortgages
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/15/washington/15fannie.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

The Bush administration hastily arranged the dramatic Sunday evening rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after Wall Street executives and foreign central bankers told Washington that any further erosion of confidence could have a cascading effect around the world, officials said on Monday.

The concern, they said, was that if those Fannie and Freddie debt securities began to decline in value, then thousands of institutions — including all of the nation’s major banks, and many large mutual funds, money market funds and pension funds — might have to recognize losses on their portfolios.

That, in turn, could have lasting effects on economies here and abroad already struggling from slumping housing markets, spiking energy prices and sharp declines in consumer confidence. The debt securities of Fannie and Freddie are nearly as ubiquitous as the debt issued by the United States government. In the minds of most investors, they are also almost as safe.

 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-15 04:46:58

Brief History of the 1987 Stock Market Crash
with a Discussion of the Federal Reserve Response
Mark Carlson
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
November 2006

http://www.federalreserve.gov/Pubs/feds/2007/200713/200713pap.pdf

Comment by rms
2008-07-15 07:16:04

Thanks hoz!

 
 
Comment by merce
2008-07-15 04:52:46

Report from dubious source in UK predicts sharp increases in rents
this year despite house prices going off a cliff. Any evidence of this in the US last couple of years?

Numbers
moving home at record low

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 05:02:43

My lease is up at the end of the summer, so I’m starting to sniff around for possible rental prospects. I’m not impressed. Frankly, I’m not seeing any bargains out there close to Tampa. Further north in Pasco, there’s some bargains, but then the gas offsets that.

Question for HBB renters: How many of you pay for water as a separate charge in your own name, how many of you have it included in the rent, where the landlord pays it?

Comment by intheknow
2008-07-15 05:13:15

I rent a house in Tampa and water & sewer is in my name. However my rent does include twice-monthly lawn service and weekly pool service.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-07-15 05:40:35

I pay for water separate from my SFH rent here in the Syracuse area.

In the 80s and 90s I rented about 6 different house based apts over 15 years in the Boston suburbs. (Usuallly Victorians split into 2 separate units) The water bills (which were pretty steep there due to the Boston Harbor clean up) were included in the rent.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2008-07-15 05:41:38

I rent in Jupiter Fl. and I pay for water, about 40 bucks a month. The only nice thing, when I put my deposit with Town of Jupiter Utilities they told me I received 8% on it, I asked if I could give them ten grand for a deposit,the girl said she got that a lot.

Comment by Otis Wildflower
2008-07-15 09:33:29

I rent in Jupiter Fl. and I pay for water, about 40 bucks a month.
Yikes! I get billed quarterly in DE, last one was about $55 IIRC.. No pool, no lawn watering..

The only nice thing, when I put my deposit with Town of Jupiter Utilities they told me I received 8% on it, I asked if I could give them ten grand for a deposit,the girl said she got that a lot.

Bwahaahah, might be worth sending a couple extra hundred a month when you pay your bill…

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Comment by Muggy
2008-07-15 06:10:15

“My lease is up at the end of the summer”

I pay for water and mow the lawn (I know, mowing the lawn) at my SFH rental; at my last rental, a townhouse, I did not pay water; at my beach place before that (duplex), I did not pay water.

My water bill is about $40/mo.

Don’t be discouraged. There are some good deals out there, but you’re going to have to look hard. I don’t know where you want to live, but I always target really nice areas that appreciate an educated, clean couple without a rap sheet and a few dollars.

I live in a nice area for about 1/3 the current cost of ownership.

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 06:16:38

Thanks, Muggy. I want to stay in Hillsborough, but owners are really fracked-up around here right now, there was far more speculation and building here than in Pinellas. The majority of the rental stock around here seems to be those behemoth houses, and the standard rent for those is between $1200 and $1450. AS IF!! I’m just a single schmoe looking for a little quiet and privacy, I don’t need 3 or 4 bedrooms.

On the plus side, though, I’m starting to see those old Florida concrete block shacks come down in prices. LOL! One good thing about all the over-building, most people will probably be looking for newer homes and ole’ Palmetto will be wanting a cheap shack.

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-07-15 06:48:53

“The majority of the rental stock around here seems to be those behemoth houses, and the standard rent for those is between $1200 and $1450. AS IF!!”

Wow! I’m paying way more than that for my less than stellar quality rental in the home of low housing costs. (Upstate NY) Look what they charge to rent the McMansions:

http://syracuse.craigslist.org/apa/755207175.html

$3500 / 4br

Beautiful 3600 sq. ft home (5 years old) on over 1 wooded acre in “Parade of Homes” neighborhood - huge master suite with sitting room - 3 car garage - 3 1/2 bathrms. - fine detail throughout- 2 subzero refrigerators - 5 burner gas stove - double Wolfe ovens - large swimming pool - wonderful wooded lot - excellent Fay-El school district - minimum one year lease - option to buy

I found this when I was looking up the link to the $2700/mo SFH rental.

 
Comment by Chip
2008-07-15 11:20:20

Palmy - they are dropping a lot in Orlando, too - my wife showed me a house in Heathrow - huge upscale guard-gated yuppieville, that sold for close to 30% off peak, and prices are still falling. Speaking of which, I haven’t heard much about yuppies lately. Am posting on the SOH “Gotcha” below - hopefully I’m not duplicating.

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2008-07-15 07:30:07

“I want to stay in Hillsborough”

I have no idea what’s up over there. I was in Tampa yesterday and drove by the gentlemen’s club mentioned in the bits bucket a few days ago. I wanted badly to yell out the window, “I rent, and kept my shirt!!”

Anyway, if you were looking in Pinellas, I’d tell you Seminole or Largo; there are some nice block 2/1’s in these areas that are safe, working class, no crazies etc. (although you have ot be real careful).

Are there any areas like that across the bay?

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-15 06:18:41

I rent a townhouse here in San Mateo County. The water, PG&E (gas and electric) are in our names.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 06:56:50

Our water comes from a well around 250 feet down in the ground, or from our river, or from our creek.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-15 08:11:51

Alad,

What is the gpm for your well?

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 08:26:37

30 gpm

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:19:36

p.s.

“The shortage of fresh water on planet Earth is likely to become the biggest problem ever during the forthcoming decades. Experts from the International Water Management Institute said in their recent report that the water crisis in the world would occur because of the growing number of population.”

“According to the UN, the population of planet Earth will grow from 6 to 8.5 billion people by 2030. One person living in an industrially developed country consumes up to 3,000 liters of water a year. If the global population grows by 2.5 billion, it will be necessary to find additional 2,000 cubic kilometers of water for their living.”

“The global consumption of water has increased six times during the recent 100 years and will double by 2050. There are countries that have already run out of water reserves for the production of their food. The shortage of fresh water will inevitably boost prices on this resource,” the Director of the International Water Management Institute, Frank Rijsberman said.”

http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/15-07-2008/105784-water-0

 
 
 
Comment by nycjoe
2008-07-15 07:54:34

For houses around NYC, you essentially pay everything. But for apts., they usually cover heat and hot water, unless it’s electric.

One deal buster for us was a house with a nice fat oil tank … which we would’ve had the pleasure of filling a few times this coming winter. Had to agree with my 4-year-old son who shouted right in front of the broker, “I don’t LIKE that TINY LITTLE HOUSE!!!” But it was a steal at $3200, I’m sure!

No real rental deals close to NYC, either, but we didn’t do too badly on move to Queens. Here’s hoping it’ll make some kind of sense to buy in winter 2010 …

 
Comment by Chip
2008-07-15 11:23:50

I don’t - the landlord pays all utilities except electricity and cable, and takes care of the yard. Smart move. Once when I was a landlord the tenant was responsible for the yard and let it fall into ruin. Cost me more to replace it than upkeep would have.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-07-15 05:08:17

While prices relative to incomes are even less sustainable than in the U.S., is there the degree of oversupply that exists in the U.S.? There was the story a few days ago that 15 percent of all houses in America were vacant. Does anyone know the percent vacant in the U.K.? My guess is that it’s a lot less, not just because the U.S. number is astoundingly high.

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 07:59:54

I think oversupply is lower in the UK (and Europe in general), especially when looking at new homes. However, in most of Europe nobody tracks the number of vacant homes or investor properties. I know a lot of people who own multiple homes and most of these stay empty. Price gains in Europe were so big over the last 10-20 years that many owners didn’t bother to find a renter. The (net) rent income is insignificant relative to the asset gains. I think we will find out about the true supply/demand balance once the market has started a serious decline.

 
Comment by Jay_Huhman
2008-07-15 09:28:26

The percentage of occupied units in the US has fallen but not by much. At the end of 2007 - 86% occupied, at the end of 1997 - 88% occupied.

1997 data at
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/annual97/ann97t9.html

2007 data at
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/annual07/ann07t9.html

Comment by Chip
2008-07-15 11:26:57

2% is a fair bit of increase, nonetheless.

Think about the supply of oil changing by just 2%.

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Comment by Bad Chile
2008-07-15 05:13:55

Not here in Baaaaaaaahston. I pay rent, heat, and electric. Heat is generally around $25 a month in the winter, electric is around $30 a month. When I rented the place I got 5% off the asking price back in 2006; in 2007 my rent stayed the same; the latest renewal last month saw a $25 increase in my rent. I’m still below what was asking in 2006.

So, no. Rents, as predicted here, are not tracking inflation, they’re tracking wages. And wages aren’t going up…

Comment by KenWPA
2008-07-15 05:19:41

In PA here and pay all utilities on a single family home. Your heat is dirt cheap for the Northeast. It costs me close to $800 a year to heat/hot water/stove, with natural gas.

Comment by Hazard
2008-07-15 05:43:00

In Mobile its just the opposite. High a/c bills in the summer very little for heating in the winter. Two more months of this and then the start of a long cool season.

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Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 06:05:26

Here in Tampa we have the rest of July, August and September. Possibly part of October, too. Then it is cool until May, June.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-07-15 12:52:25

With the highest historical vacant inventory in history, the idea that rents will spike is ludicrous. There may be a short temporary increase due to the rental pool temporariliy being reduced by properties moving through the foreclosure pipeline. That’s the free markets will correct that, and rents should be moving lower in general as that bubble of inventory comes out of the snake.

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-15 04:57:30

” * If an investment becomes so expensive that bond yields are more attractive, sell it.
* If you find another investment significantly more attractive than a current investment, sell it, and buy the new investment.
* Sell into price rises, and buy into price declines, if you can’t find economic reasons not to do it.”
David Merkel

The caveat to buying is “if you can’t find economic reasons not to do it.” Today may be a buying day IF the market is down 300+ points on the dow, 35pts on the S&Ps. A good day to short US Treasuries - if there are more stupid buyers.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 05:00:55

“A good day to short US Treasuries - if there are more stupid buyers.”

I always heard that US Treasuries were (default) risk free investments. I guess you don’t believe in the flight to quality effect anymore?

Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-15 06:19:23

I believe in the flight to quality. It’s just that the U.S. government isn’t quality anymore.

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-07-15 07:37:43

I know. I’m speculating that the US government will default within my lifetime. Between the debt, entitlement payments, and the Fed exchanging notes for tons of toxic waste, I just don’t see how exactly everyone gets paid unless we go into hyperinflation mode.

There’s no flippin place to hide. Crud.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 09:15:02

In nearly every case historically, a beaten down public initially welcomes hyper-inflation, as it “seems” like they are doing better…

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-07-15 09:23:40

I too expect the US gov’t to default in my lifetime, but in the short term their paper is relatively safe.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:27:33

I’d hate to define exactly how long “short term” is, if I was holding rectangular pieces of paper with revolutionists on them.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 04:59:02

Methinks the SEC is wasting its effort pursuing false rumors. The ones that really hurt are those which, upon confirmation, turn out to be true.

Hedge Funds Subpoenaed in SEC Probe
By KARA SCANNELL and JENNY STRASBURG
July 15, 2008; Page C3

And if you want to spread true rumors these days, it might be a good idea to first move to Singapore. (I am listening just now to Jim Rogers interviewed from Singapore on NPR’s Marketplace about what would be the best approach to help the U.S. financial system weather the GSE crisis. In his view, it would be best to let them fail, put some people in jail if warranted, and start over with a fresh approach to U.S. housing finance.)

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 05:22:35

Rogers is not one of my faves, I prefer Pickens for staying in the US and wanting to do something about it, but Rogers is right in this case. I think so, anyway, unless of course what he’s recommending would line his pockets.

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 05:36:52

Love the rumors investigation, though. Makes me laugh. If the gov hadn’t had to step in, betcha no one would have given a sh*t. It would have been tough titty and business as usual.

Incidentally, one of Florida’s politicos was on the news last night saying that oil prices were being driven up by speculators. Methinks a scapegoat is being established.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 05:48:48

Blaming the situation at hand on rumor mongers takes the focus off bad economic policies that led to the crisis du juor.

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Comment by hd74man
2008-07-15 06:46:55

RE: Methinks a scapegoat is being established.

These politicans are no better than Joe Gobbels and his propoganda spewing henchmen.

It just blows me away as to how ignorant the average American is.

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Comment by SDGreg
2008-07-15 07:31:53

“These politicians are no better than Joe Goebbels and his propaganda spewing henchmen.”

And most probably don’t know who he was nor why being compared to him might not be a compliment. Stark reality will eventually overcome their best efforts to deceive.

 
 
 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-07-15 07:44:37

Rogers is probably right. However, you lose a ton of creditability ranting about the US government from Singapore while teaching your kid Chinese. (Wonder who they are gonna call for help when the Chinese decide they want their island back…)

At any rate, what does he care? He’s placed his bets somewhere else. Just cheer on our demise and be done with it.

Comment by hondje
2008-07-15 08:18:29

Why do you reckon Rogers has lost a ton of credibility by moving to another country? And btw, Singapore has never been part of greater-China, so why do you assume the Chinese will take it back?

Sorry, I just don’t understand the paranoia surrounding the chinese threat that looms everywhere.

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Comment by Skip
2008-07-15 08:58:05

I think he might be confused and thinking about Formosa.

 
Comment by Vermontergal
2008-07-15 09:14:54

He loses it with me on two counts: He’s saying the future is China. Why worry about us if we’re the past?

Also, a part of democracy is persistance (you know, “the price of freedom is eternal vilgilance” thing) and working on social/economic conditions as they exist in the now. It is not the path to riches, although for many people it can be. It looks to me like he choose riches above freedom.

As far as Singapore is concerned, you may want to remember that Tibet has never been part of greater China either. Singapore is a whole island of Chinese that escaped when the communists took over. What’s worse, they are doing better than than the mainland. It looks bad. China has thousands of years invested in saving face. I’m pretty sure as soon as Chinese believe they have the upper hand, it will be Chinese territory.

The truth is I like alot of the Chinese I’ve met and alot of their culture. If you want to move to some place because you like it or would like to make money there, I’m all for it. However, I can’t say as I’m able to take someone seriously who has ditched America but will continue to keep complaining about it on Bloomberg.

 
Comment by packman
2008-07-15 10:02:55

I think you’re getting Singapore confused with Taiwan.

 
Comment by SunDevil
2008-07-15 10:04:10

You might want to look at a map. I do not think Singapore is where you think it is.

 
Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 18:18:08

Does Singapore recognize its citizens’ right to keep and bear arms? No. There, test over. My gold is not safe in Singapore.

 
Comment by Zhang Fei
2008-07-15 19:28:33

Singapore is a whole island of Chinese that escaped when the communists took over. What’s worse, they are doing better than than the mainland. It looks bad. China has thousands of years invested in saving face. I’m pretty sure as soon as Chinese believe they have the upper hand, it will be Chinese territory.

Singapore used to be run by the Malays (a minority in Singapore who also populate Southern Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines). It was conquered by a succession of European powers (Portuguese, Dutch followed by a swap with the Brits in the 19th century) starting in the 16th century, who imported ethnic Chinese and Indian laborers into the territory to work in mining and agriculture because of what they perceived as native Malay languor. Today’s Singapore is roughly 70% ethnic Chinese, but most of the population is at least 4 generations removed from China. While ancient China has claimed the kingdoms of Far East - what they called Nanyang - (and perhaps the entire known world) as Chinese tributary states (like Tibet, Korea and Vietnam), the modern Chinese state has no claim to Singapore. Except for the entire South China Sea which surrounds it and the countries of South East Asia.

 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-07-15 05:28:18

” In his view, it would be best to let them fail, put some people in jail if warranted, and start over with a fresh approach to U.S. housing finance”.)

He’s right IMO, and that’s what would happen if our great big retarded nanny didn’t stick it’s nose in and screw up the cleansing/flushing process.

 
Comment by Zhang Fei
2008-07-15 19:43:26

Jim Rogers might simply be talking his book - i.e. he may be short FNM and FRE bonds and MBS’s and trying to make money by increasing the odds of these securities selling for 50 cents on the dollar. Soros, his former partner at the Quantum Fund, made a point of attacking currency pegs to make billions. In particular, Soros is blamed for triggering the Asian financial crisis in 1997, which set back the economies of the region for a decade. Jim Rogers needs to watch his step - the Asians don’t like people messing with their economies and will send people to long prison terms for “crimes” defined after the fact. Still, as long as he confines his tirades to criticisms of the US, he’ll be OK.

 
 
Comment by InMontana
2008-07-15 05:15:09

Montana trout lodge auction canceled.

“Several real estate agents said the canceled auction also reflects a weakening market for expensive homes in the Bitterroot Valley, where reportedly just one home sold for more than $1 million in the past six months. They said there is more competition these days for buyers of high-end homes, including about 40 homes currently listed for between $700,000 and $1.2 million.”

Comment by exeter
2008-07-15 05:50:36

What the hell is a “home”???

Yeah… everybody wants to live in Bitterroot Valley and all those everybodies are millionares. Just ask a RealTurd.

Comment by SV guy
2008-07-15 18:47:57

My in-laws have an estate south of Hamilton.

Trust me, maybe 2% of the population live as well.

They live there part time.

All the BIG money is from out of state.

Charles Schwab

Craig Barrett.

Etc, etc……

It’s a nice place to live.

Mike

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 05:17:57

Monday, July 14, 2008

Hybrids like Fan and Fred are a bad mix
Amity Shlaes

The combination of private and public ownership makes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hybrids, and that, says commentator Amity Shlaes, is a big part of the problem. It might be heresy to some, but she thinks privatization is the answer.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-07-15 07:50:36

You can only “privatize” to the greatest fools at the top of the bubble not after it bursts.

Great idea but it ain’t gonna happen.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 05:20:32

There were quite a few people that had in excess of $100k in their FDIC insured IndyMac accounts which strikes me as amazing, as IndyMac’s stock dropped like a rock the past few months.

The average joe can tell you that Chico Godzilla bats .341 on the road during night games, but can only manage to eke out .279 @ his own ballpark, during day games, but joe never bothered to check out that the bank where his money was at, had been batting .0010, as of late.

Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 18:08:56

I’d never have more than $25k in a big bank that has been around more than 30 years. I agree - why put over $100k in some name I haven’t even heard of until 3 weeks ago - IndyMac?

Why do that when they can buy T-bills directly from the treasury? http://www.treasurydirect.gov

No bank penaltys, no investment fees, none of that b.s. ACH ties to your bank, so you can withdraw only the amount you want to withdraw to your bank, which yeah, can go insolvent. But you can easily change your bank institution to where you do the ACH.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 05:22:27

The Book on Bailouts: They Often Cost Taxpayers and Are Best Done Quickly
By Joanna Slater
Word Count: 703 | Companies Featured in This Article: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

A long history of bank bailouts around the world provides some models for what could unfold in the U.S. as the government becomes more directly involved in fixing a damaged financial system.

This history shows it is almost always a painful process, typically costly to taxpayers and best done quickly.

Since the 1990s, countries like Japan, Sweden, South Korea and Thailand have all experienced banking crises. The U.S. had its own financial upheaval during the savings-and-loan debacle in the 1980s.

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 06:03:31

Oh, yeah, I recall when I opened a couple of accounts at First Union, back in the days before Wachovia swallowed it up. The little customer service snip on the phone asked some questions because the bank “wanted to see how I handled my money”, in other words, if I was good enuf to have an account there. Maybe in the future, we all should be asking how the banks handle THEIR money, which is really the depositors’ money.

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 07:24:01

it is very telling that the situation has not reversed in favor of savers, in spite of similar consumer initiatives on the internet. In Europe it isn’t any better. As a saver you get a lousy rate (below actual inflation) for being last in line for a refund when a greedy manager, or a junior trader, has gambled away all the money in the bank and then some. In Europe we only have 20K deposit insurance, for selfemployed people this is a disaster waiting to happen. The fat cats in the government, the trade unions and company management don’t worry, they will go relatively unharmed in a banking crash. Government will simply raise taxes to keep paying their fat paychecks, pensions or unemployment benefits.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 05:33:33

I just heard David Wessel on NPR’s Morning Edition, commenting on Wall Street’s Reaction to Fannie-Freddie Plan. He did a beautiful job of connecting the dots between the ‘government sponsored enterprise’ status of Fannie and Freddie and their ability to ‘privatize gains’ during the boom times and ’socialize losses’ during busts.

It might be worthwhile at this juncture to revisit a WSJ article he penned back in March 2008. The answer to the rhetorical question he raised seems quite apparent today.

CAPITAL
By DAVID WESSEL
Ten Days That Changed Capitalism
Officials Improvised To Rescue Markets; Will It Be Enough?
March 27, 2008; Page A1

The past 10 days will be remembered as the time the U.S. government discarded a half-century of rules to save American financial capitalism from collapse.

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-07-15 06:20:04

good thing they did nothing in 1921
in 1930 they did allot
in Japan 1990 they did everything
= so now we’re turning Japanese

 
Comment by safe_as_apartments
2008-07-15 06:24:24

As much as I generally respect NPR, I can’t tolerate the way they refer to the broader mortgage and credit crisis as the “subprime” crisis.

That’s soooo 2007.

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 07:23:02

That’s the name it has been christened with…”The Subprime Crisis”.

Just like “9/11″…no creativity or insight, just a date.

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-07-15 07:58:45

Group names have way of revealing the thinking/reaction to events.

“9/11″ - the name is so austere because really was a series of horrifying events. The day all h@@? broke lose doesn’t need some fancy insightful name.

The “Subprime Crisis” seems like it’s a way to reassure people that we’re talking about the “undeserving” (those “other people” that the media/NPR like to talk about) are being foreclosed on. (I’m not making a judgment either way, it’s that right now middle America is try have the financial melt down not affect or be about them, too.)

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Comment by patient renter
2008-07-15 13:04:37

As much as I generally respect NPR, I can’t tolerate the way they refer to the broader mortgage and credit crisis as the “subprime” crisis.

I KNOW! I don’t know WTF their problem is, but that drives me insane too.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 05:41:32

A part of the bailout Kabuki dance which some readers here might not understand is that the political pressure to pass these measures becomes overwhelming in the heat of a crisis. Few U.S. politicians are willing to risk taking a principled stand, only to catch blame from less-principled pols for not supporting expedient, if ill-conceived, measures to remedy the situation.

Lawmakers Fast-Track Help for Mortgage Giants
By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 14, 2008; 4:57 PM

A Treasury Department plan to bolster beleaguered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be added to a massive housing package working its way through Congress, to be to the president’s desk within days, key lawmakers said today.

In an interview, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said he will incorporate the Treasury initiative — which would extend unprecedented government support to the two shareholder-owned, government-chartered companies — into the housing package. The measure will be put to a vote in the House on Thursday and then go to the Senate for final approval, and on to the White House early next week, Frank said.

“I do think there’s a reason for speed,” Frank (D-Mass.) said. He and other observers added that some Republican lawmakers, particularly in the Senate, are likely to oppose the initiative. But, Frank said, “I don’t see a major problem.”

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 05:57:32

Boo-YAH! Chris Dodd’s eyebrows were all over the national TV news last night.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 06:16:55

Chris Dodd for Obama VP!

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 07:30:54

Phil Gramm for McCain VP!

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Comment by jeff saturday
2008-07-15 06:33:45

Repost
Beverly Hillbillies Theme

Come and listen to my story bout a man named Dodd, refied his house but it seemed kinda odd,
saved eighty grand but he said he didn`t know,
law makers get a break cause there friends of Angelo

Mozillo that is…… Countrywide…..

Well the first thing you know Angelo is in some trouble, he said HEY DODD NOW THEY SAID I CAUSED A BUBBLE! Dodd said fine I`ll just sponsor us a bill, cover it with sugar and I`ll sell it on the hill

Well the moral of the story that we all should know, better vote em out if there friends of Angelo, or one day soon we`ll be shootin at our food, Bernankes got us lookin at two hundred dollar crude

oil that is…black gold…OPEC tea

And now it`s time to say goodbye to you and all your kin, and Dodd would like to thank you all for kindly chippin in, your all invited back again to this locality, to pay three hundred billion for their bogus LTV

This has been a subprime presentation

Comment by peaceful
2008-07-15 07:04:03

Awesome! : )

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Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 08:19:14

Dodd is an idiot, and probably a crook too.

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-15 08:27:25

Bravo, bravo, bravo. Standing ovation. I now have the tune in my head. :)

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Comment by jeff saturday
2008-07-15 08:55:07

I can get that tune out of tour head if you remember (Henery the eigth)

I`m Angelo the mortgage man
Angelo the mortgage man I am
I gave a mortgage to the widow next door
and she`d been refied several times before
and everyone was a teaser rate
TEASER RATE
but now she says she didn`t understand
when she got her loans from Angelo
Angelo the mortgage man

second verse same as the first

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:40:13

A couple of beauties there, jeff…

Thanks!

 
 
Comment by REhobbyist
2008-07-15 13:11:23

Bravo, Jeff.

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Comment by ahansen
2008-07-15 22:58:22

Best doggerel I’ve read in years. Congratulations, Jeff. That was just excellent.

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Comment by jeff saturday
2008-07-15 07:46:55

” I do think there`s a reason for speed,” (Frank-D-Mass.)

Isn`t that what the owner of the White Star Line said right before the Titanic hit the iceberg.

Comment by ouden mallon
2008-07-15 08:35:23

“I don’t see a major problem.”

Isn’t that what was said right after the Titantic hit the iceberg?

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2008-07-15 08:36:08

But, Frank said ” I don`t see a major problem.”

Niether did the owner of the White Star Line.

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 06:06:55

Beware the Ides of July

Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-15 06:21:29

Sometimes I think the only reason the market hasn’t crashed is that everyone believes it’s “supposed to” happen in October.

Comment by palmetto
2008-07-15 06:33:33

“Try to remember the kind of September,
When life was slow and oh so mellow
Try to remember the kind of September
When grass was green and grain so yellow” etc.

Comment by nycjoe
2008-07-15 07:38:49

Considering what happened last year as well, looks like summer is the new fall. Takes the edge off the news cycle, like Sunday Fed rescue plans, right? Maybe soon we’ll be singing Endless Summer.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 06:19:21

First comment below this article: “Shorting long maturity treasurys will soon become the best game in town.”

U.S. producer prices gain 1.8% in June, energy prices surge
By Ruth Mantell
Last update: 8:30 a.m. EDT July 15, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Wholesale prices rose 1.8% in June, after seasonable adjustments, with energy prices gaining 6% and food prices rising 1.5%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the producer price index to rise 1.4%. In the past year, the PPI gained 9.2% — the largest change since June 1981, the government said.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-15 07:14:21

Soon?

I admire those who short successfully. But being right is not enough — you have to know when being wrong will stop paying.

Interest rates have been too low, and housing prices too high, for years. When is that reality going to be reflected?

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 07:43:07

not yet, in Europe …

 
 
 
Comment by Ria Rhodes
2008-07-15 06:22:13

General Motor’s cutting their dividend. GM’s Wagoner:

“Frankly, we’re very well positioned outside the U.S. now, and will be in [the U.S.] too, when this cycle concludes.”

Love the “when this cycle concludes” as if things will then return to the good time cycle of conspicuous consumption, easy credit, liar loans, homes twenty miles out in the exburbs.

The blatant hubris of these Mary Poppin’s cheerleaders and their million dollar compensation packages makes me sick.

Comment by hd74man
2008-07-15 06:25:02

RE: The blatant hubris of these Mary Poppin’s cheerleaders and their million dollar compensation packages makes me sick.

Great line!

 
Comment by In Colorado
2008-07-15 09:33:02

Well, it is true that they are doing ok outside the US, where they aren’t dependent on selling Hummers, Suburbans and 350HP pickup trucks.

GM will probably end up closing the lions share of whatever plants its has left in North America and just import subcompacts from its foreign subsidiaries (it has actually started doing that, the Saturn Astra is just a rebadged Opel Astra). Same with Ford. Unfortunately for Chrysler it has no such option.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 06:23:33

Mortgage Insurers’ Declining Markets

Mortgage insurers have been dramatically tightening their standards throughout the U.S., further squeezing potential home buyers. Tighter standards are nothing new in the hard-hit states of California and Florida, but over the past few months, mortgage insurers have been declaring more and more of the U.S. a “declining market.” The result: At a time when buyers are have fewer ways to avoid purchasing private mortgage insurance, qualifying for such insurance has become much more difficult. (See related article.) Below, track the markets declared declining by three major mortgage insurers — AIG United Guaranty, MGIC Investment and Genworth Financial — in a sortable chart.

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-07-15 06:23:49

Like sheep to slaughter.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAcRihZD4Ueo&refer=worldwide

With a war that’s not bein’ paid for; the costs of fed welfare and entitlement programs blowin’ thru the roof; mega bail-out’s of the Wall Street gangsters; and record oil prices rippling thru all facets of the economy, any moron can see that the inflation that’s coming down the pike will make the mid/late 70’s seem like a picnic.

Millions of boomers can now say adios to the concept of retirement.

And you can thank your incumbent congress person for the favor.

Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 18:23:01

Millions of boomers can now say adios to the concept of retirement.

And you can thank your incumbent congress person for the favor.

No, you can thank those baby boomers for artificially raising the price of houses to double or triple what their proper value is and expecting to be able to retire by selling those houses.

Congress is only a representation of the Americans. Americans spend more than they take in. Congress spends more than they take in. Americans expect newer generations to continue the RE ponzi scheme. Congress expects newer larger generations to support the government Ponzi scheme.

What we have is a bigger problem than a bad Congress. What we have is a lack of reason in the much more numerous, general public. Much more numerous than 535 people in Congress.

Look in the mirror. Yes, you are the problem when you think costs should be socialized.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 06:26:03

OPINION
End the Mortgage Duopoly
By GERALD P. O’DRISCOLL JR.
July 15, 2008; Page A19

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 06:30:30

PAUL B. FARRELL
‘Lazy Portfolios’ 8 winners for a bear-recession
Protect your retirement; major indexes crashing far below 2000 peaks
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:12 p.m. EDT July 14, 2008

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Just a big bad bear? Or an angry wolf about to bite America’s head off? S&P 500, Dow industrials and Nasdaq composite have all collapsed 20% plus. Will it get worse? Yes.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hints another Bear Stearns ahead. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be insolvent and could leave taxpayers holding the bag on $5 trillion in liabilities.

You should be afraid. I’ll bet you’ve already lost a lot. Think history folks: Remember the 2000-2002 bear? That took 30 months: Markets crashed, down more than 43%, lost over $8 trillion in market cap. The Dow peaked at 11,722, then dropped over 4,000 points to below 7,500.
This is worse. Why? Because today the Dow’s already well below that 2000 peak. The S&P 500 is also below its peak of 1,550. As Reagan might ask: “Are you better off today than eight years ago?” Answer: “No!”

Comment by Bronco
2008-07-15 07:24:31

no, but much better off than 7 years ago…

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 07:25:13

i think this guy is trying to scare people into shifting their funds his way so he can hold the septor on wall street!

 
 
Comment by cactus
2008-07-15 06:32:35

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/dollar.html

Dollar falls to new low against Euro….. what was Bill Gross saying about the dollar verus the Euro ?

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 07:28:49

A weak dollar would be to our advantage if we were primarily an exporting nation, and free trade was assured.

The big question is how safe is the dollar to begin with?

Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-07-15 07:45:02

A weak dollar will not create an export nation because anything we’d have to export, other than services, would be tied to purchasing input needs to create the products we export.

If the dollar is weak, fuel and energy prices skyrocket. If the dollar is weak, steel, aluminum, copper and other hard needs skyrocket. Once you turn around the item with our “cheap” labor, we’re still expensive compared to the cheap labor, and closer transport points, abroad.

We need a strong dollar, and we need strong savings created by decent returns on simple savings accounts. This means we need high borrowing interest rates, which also has the nice side effect of reducing and almost eliminating mass malinvestments.

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-07-15 08:10:57

I didn’t say a weak dollar would create an export nation. I said it would be of benefit if we were an export nation.

For this country to become a net exporter again, it would take a prolonged period of crisis, giving us time to dismantle older inefficient business models and create newer efficient ones.

That would also imply that alternative energy choices increase and energy efficiecy improves, among other changes in the commerce base.

With regard to commodities, most of the low hanging fruit is already gone.

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Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 08:11:05

fully agree; in Europe we have a (relatively) strong euro for the moment, but the other issues are just as bad as in the US. Real returns on savings accounts are negative, and debt is cheaper than free. I think many big companies in the EU can only survive as long as the cost of servicing their debt is far below inflation (debt is an asset …).

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 06:33:09

How is the decoupling theory looking at this point?

Fears About Banks Sink Futures

Futures were sharply lower as investors remained concerned about the health of the nation’s banks in the aftermath of the government seizure of IndyMac. Bank fears also helped lead to steep declines in Asia and Europe.The dollar fell to a new record low against the euro. 9:26 a.m.

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 07:15:12

yeah, several banks down 10-20% in Europe in one morning - and we are not even in the US where it all started …

 
Comment by GrittyToasterWaffleGuy
2008-07-15 07:47:01

Ben the Bubbleboy just told COngress that the banking crisis is not a solvency issue but a liquidity issue.

I think I’ll just head right on over to my brokerage screen and load up on UYG. Um. Maybe not.

Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 08:49:05

and now he is saying that speculation is not driving oil prices! who is he trying to fool?

Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 09:06:32

Oil prices drop more than $10 in massive selloff that follows big drop in stock prices

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/oil_prices.html

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Comment by Ria Rhodes
2008-07-15 06:34:01

Don’t worry, ethanol will save us. Not.

Anyone seen the price of a bag of movie popcorn these days? Divvy up for tickets and a bag for each of your family members (plus the gas to get there) and you’ll need financing. Wouldn’t want to be a theater proprietor these days.

Comment by Kim
2008-07-15 10:04:51

Haven’t been to the movie theatre in years. I haven’t been to a Blockbuster in about six months since we discovered that our local library has a supurb video selection.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 06:34:56

Perhaps the biggest change in matters financial since I was a lad, would be the very small amount of cash actually used in transactions nowadays, compared to way back when.

Like most of you, I rarely pay cash for anything over $10 anymore.

A thin little plastic rectangle has taken the place of a rectangular piece of paper.

How will this play out?

Yesterday, IndyMac turned off their ATM machines, not allowing people access to their cash, making them wait in line instead.

What happens when the credit card companies start cutting people off?

Comment by nhz
2008-07-15 07:09:24

maybe Bernanke will outlaw paper money?

 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-15 07:10:18

What makes one assume that pieces of plastic are less reliable that pieces of paper?

They’ll only cut off the people who don’t pay in full every month. No concern of mine.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 07:14:40

Cutting off people with a full-blown sense of false-entitlement should yield interesting returns.

Comment by Ernest
2008-07-15 09:45:54

It’s coming.

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Comment by David
2008-07-15 07:51:17

First they cut off the cards of the people who couldnt pay every month, but i didnt protest because i pay every month.
Then they cut off the cards of the people who used IndyMac, but I didnt protest becayse i was smart enough not to bank at IndyMac.
Then they cut off all the cards of people who couldnt document thier US citizenship, but I didnt protest because I am a US citizen.
Then they cut off all the cards of people who had ever been caught smoking pot, but I didnt protest because i never smoke pot.
Then they cut off all the cards of people with speeding tickets. I was mad as hell, but there was no one left to protest with me.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-15 08:38:48

Great humorous analogy to the poem by Niemöller.

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Comment by aqius
2008-07-15 07:11:04

laddy

I always try to use cash, Ilke the instant accountability feature that it entails . .. and recently I asked the local Frys cashier if anyone was using cash these days? definate “no” was the answer.

hard to see if the plastic card is an ATM debit or pure credit card. another interesting feature I discovered last week when buying a new LCD TV was that the debit feature on a bank card will only allow $300 if used in a debit mode, but when used as a credit card it worked with a much higher amount. (thousands).

I usually pay cash for walk-up retail purchases, so if there is a return necessary, I dont have to wait a month for a company check. no hassle - no fuss, nice n simple. however, I didnt happen to have $2500 cash in hand on that particular day, so that was indeed an interesting financial quirk discovered. probably old news to most people, but not to me . . . !!

Comment by bluprint
2008-07-15 07:27:41

I also like the “instant accountability” of cash. However I do use a CC a lot (e.g. fuel).

I don’t now nor will I ever use or own a debit card. It provides instant access directly to your bank account (increased security risk) and increased accountability if something goes wrong. A CC on the other hand, you can’t be charged for a charge you didn’t make, period. I just see debit cards as being increased risk for little or no reward.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-15 07:40:06

I agree. I won’t get one. Just an ATM card and two credit cards paid off every month. The banks have always tried to force the debit card on me.

But I did get one for my kids, for their own accounts, in preference to credit cards or carrying lots of cash. No more than $20 at a time here in NYC, no matter how low crime stats get.

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Comment by johnny
2008-07-15 14:28:27

office max or depot (forgot which) has a new return policy on ccards. You don’t get your money back until end of quarter.

 
 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-07-15 07:12:17

I wonder if that’s due to the fact that ATMs allow customers to take more than is in their account.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-15 07:43:05

what’s a fact? .. afaik, they don’t.
A couple machines probably just ran dry.. and/or a some people with overdrawn accts may have stuck their card in, attempting to steal money, and it got eaten.

Otherwise the indymac ATM machines have been available. Online banking was cut off for a few hours.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 08:07:41

joey,

Are you a concerned banker?

You keep coming up with excuses for them…

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Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-07-15 09:04:34

Gee Joey,
Don’t the banks have overdraft charges in that great state of Caley-fornee-ah? ;)

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-15 09:22:07

CarrieAnn.. yeah there are overdraft charges.
I admit i’m not experienced with coaxing money from a dry bank account, but i think it’ll cost you around $40 to squeeze the $40 you don’t have from a machine.

I was speaking in reference to the panic withdrawls and aladinsane’s false claim that ” Yesterday, IndyMac turned off their ATM machines, not allowing people access to their cash..

Fast-cash for emergency grocery money wasn’t on my mind.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:04:00

I should have said scattered reports of ATM’s not working, combined with many ATM’s not giving the customers a receipt showing their balance left in the bank.

Besides, if you had $100k in IndyMac, what good was an ATM gonna do you anyway, over the weekend?

You’d still be in the hole $99k

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-15 10:39:33

aladinsane.. was that an excuse?

Look.. Your job as a gold bug is to generate maximum panic in all things political and economic. Spreading lies are and rumors is perfectly permissable.
Don’t go soft on us.. and don’t allow yourself to be sidetracked by my comments.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 11:00:35

I read an article yesterday that said ATM’s for IndyMac weren’t working, and after researching that article, I came to a different conclusion.

Call me a flip-flopper if you’d like.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 06:37:11

D’ya think Kellner knows that the average bear market lops over 40 pct off real equity prices?

Irwin Kellner
IRWIN KELLNER
The bears of summer
Commentary: Look past the gloom for intelligent buying opportunities
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:31 a.m. EDT July 15, 2008

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — There’s so much gloom and doom on Wall Street these days that it might pay to look for reasons to be at least a little optimistic.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 06:39:03

Recoupling underway?

July 15, 2008 9:37 A.M.ET
BULLETIN

Financial jitters span globe
Bears build big momentum

Stock futures drop as dollar falls to record low against the euro ahead of testimony from Fed chief Ben Bernanke and a wave of economic data. Freddie and Fannie back under pressure, while State Street’s an upside standout.

Comment by matt
2008-07-15 07:21:11

I think we are washed out here, bought the swoon.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 06:39:29

The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere:

1 if by land
2 if by sea

The Midnight Ride of Henry Paulson:

1 if by hook
2 if by crook

 
Comment by mgnyc99
2008-07-15 06:45:08

HOLY WRITEDOWNS!!!

SKF passes the $200 mark

from $90 to $200 in 9 weeks

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-07-15 07:48:07

Dang! I sold some at 150 taking a (little) profit. Still have some there, though.

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-15 07:01:49

“…a receivership czar” ;-)

Do they have create x2 positions?
x1 for the real real Gov’t & x1 for the “Shadow” Gov’t?

Paulson should consider receivership for Fannie, Freddie

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSBNG21342020080715

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 07:03:21

Bad News:

It appears somebody ripped all the Copper out of the PPT Cruiser, so it won’t be available later on in the day.

Make do as best you can…

 
Comment by navygator
2008-07-15 07:08:12

So my hubby’s great uncle died back in Jan 08. He was in his 90’s and built a nice nest egg for himself to live on for 40 years past retirement. His will stipulated that the nieces, great nieces & great nephews (he had no kids of his own) got a set amount the rest went to his SIL (hubbys grandmother) to continue to pay for her retirement. Well hubby’s family is horrible with money. I mean 100K HELOCs and 50K in CC debt horrible with money. So the 2 niece executors (hubbys mom and aunt) decide that they don’t want to pay the attorney to handle the estate b/c that would take money away from the estate. They feel they can handle it themselves. It is now July 08 and nothing has been done. Yesterday we get a panicked call needing hubby’s SSN and current address (yes, his own mother doesn’t know his SSN and address) to settle the estate. Apparently a large portion of the estate is in stocks and they never bothered to liquidate them back in Jan!! So now there is a huge rush to get it done ASAP. I am actually quite amazed that they know the market is down. Hubby’s family is a shining example of J6pack’s economic knowledge.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2008-07-15 07:28:45

My TGI-CREF friends are still letting me know how much money they’re making despite the fact I mentioned 2 years ago RE was not a good area to be in. This came up when I told her I still think people are going to be changing how they do things. She wanted to support her argument that I was wrong.

I was a little stunned to hear the fund was still growing nicely since we know the commercial RE arena is starting to seize up too. So I went home and did some digging.

Apparently the fund has done well since they started buying up farmland in several states. (searchable on Bloomberg/June 2008)

People can live and die by their own hand as far as I’m concerned.
At this point the info is so ubiquitous if they’re not seeing the light, it is by stubborn choice.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-15 07:50:07

“…if they’re not seeing the light, it is by stubborn choice.”

Partly, but don’t underestimate social conditioning’s role. We all know of at least one oddball who thinks 2006 prices will return by 2H 2009 simply because no other scenario seems possible to them.

 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2008-07-15 07:20:26

“Inflation seems likely to move temporarily higher in the near term,” Bernanke said.

Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-07-15 07:49:17

Dada’s True Dictionary: Inflation: The growth of the money supply as set by a central bank.

Who controls inflation? The central bank. What happens with inflation? The money supply is grown. What is the effect of inflation? Prices rise? Is inflation = prices rising? No, inflation only means the growth of the money supply.

So, yes, Ben, we know you’re going to print more money. Thanks for doublespeak, you moron.

 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-07-15 07:53:43

That’s a boatload of “temporary”, innit?

How long before he gives up the ghost (gets fired)?

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-15 07:21:13

So I guess there will not be any McSame press releases today… dealing with this Republican to do check list item? ;-)

McCain takes risky stance on privatizing Social Security

http://www.twincities.com/national/ci_9882010?source=rss

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-15 07:48:36

Privatizing SS is a great idea, long overdue. Unfortunately, it won’t get going unless and until it’s promoted by the Left… so it’ll probably never happen.

Comment by Skip
2008-07-15 09:04:52

You must work on Wall Street…

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-15 10:11:59

that’s really smart. There it is.. the typical leftist thought process:
Hundreds of millions of Americans save money while they grow their own retirement money into something actually worthwhile.. but we must throw the idea out the window because some Wall Street broker might make a commission off it.

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Comment by exeter
2008-07-15 10:44:06

Yeah thats cute how you characterize the vast majority of people as “leftists” who know that “privatizing” SS is just another means of offloading that obligation and turning it into another supply side casino scam. A majority of republicans and most Democrats all oppose it because it is a stupid idea. Only the extremist nuts and those who can profit from it propose such blatant thievery.

Here… direct your attention to what a real republican President stated in 1953:

“Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance…labor laws and farm programmes, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things. Among them are…[a few] Texas Oil millionaires, and an occasional politician or business man from other areas. Their number is negligible and they are stupid.”

Dwight Eisenhower

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-15 11:07:17

bah.. you’re wasting your time. I been around way too long for the socialist rhetoric to have any effect.

You need to preach it to the impressionable young kids who will soon be “donating” half their income towards supporting retirees.. They need reassurance that it’s the right thing to do.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-07-15 11:26:12

Yeah… Ike was a real “socialist”. lmao. Socialist, leftist, communist. What a broken record. When one can’t back up their rhetoric, they backpedal.

Job well done Brownie.

 
Comment by Skip
2008-07-15 11:36:51

Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?
by Fred Schwed
http://www.amazon.com/Where-Customers-Yachts-Street-Marketplace/dp/0471119784

Written in 1940, but is timeless…well worth the $4.

 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-15 12:04:12

“Privatizing SS is a great idea, long overdue.”

And you think bank stocks are cheap, ROTFLMAO. Faded

 
 
 
Comment by SV guy
2008-07-15 19:13:59

Joey,

Before I act upon my impulses I have to ask a question.

How old are you?

No malice intended, just a question.

Mike

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-15 21:01:38

ok, SV guy (may be a ‘guy’.. or a gal.. doesn’t matter. How old the “guy” or gal may be is at least as immaterial and to ask how old would be more than slightly gauche), you’ve asked your question. Now act on your impulses.

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Comment by Bungalowball
 
Comment by Muggy
2008-07-15 07:36:53

Did anyone catch the credit freeze on Paramount?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b3eea5c-51f9-11dd-a97c-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

I’ve mentioned before that I’ve worked on projects financed by HELOCs. I think rough times are ahead for sure. I miscalculated my departure about 2 years too early, but I still freelance and the gigs are WAY down.

If there is anyone that wants to discuss the Film/TV biz with me, let’s riff.

Comment by Muggy
2008-07-15 12:32:47

So sad and ronery!

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-07-15 07:38:51

I see that chimpy is going to hold a press conference today to try to stabilize the markets. Any chance any of the reporters in the White House press corp will grow a set and finally ask any of the questions that should have been asked during the past 7+ years? What’s the risk? Afraid “access” will be denied for the next 6 months?

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 07:45:36

’ssshrubery always makes sure his news conferences preclude the idea of somebody heckling at him.

Favorites settings include any audience full of government employees that dare not speak out, lest they lose their jobs.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-15 07:52:55

They’re really working the MSM today. Are they really that concerned? And, if so, why? Or, maybe they’re just bored as we enter the dog days.

 
Comment by edhopper
2008-07-15 08:38:41

G W Bush:

“See this here barn door, he he.
Well, I’m gonna close it now.
You all are gonna have to round up the horses (I’m ascared of them critters)
once I vamoose from office, he he.”

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:33:39

“Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It both emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind. And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather, the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded by patriotism, will offer up all of their rights unto the leader and gladly so.”

Author Unknown

 
 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2008-07-15 07:39:43

Young guy I work with (I think he’s 23) just bought this house. http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=6236&mnp=24&mxp=23&typ=7&sid=134b13e7fcf44b36a6497345bde87bd0&lid=1100262863&lsn=4&srcnt=7#Detail

He got it for what it’s listed at. To his credit, he did put 20% down and got a fixed rate under 6%. I had been urging him to wait a little bit, but when people have the bug, they have the bug.

He says he plans to be there at least 10 years. (I told him, “Good! That might be enough time to break even ;-) )

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-07-15 07:56:07

He’s gonna be stuck with it for way more than 10 years, and take an eventual loss anyway.

What’s the hurry at 23? At that age, if I got both legs into my jeans correctly in the morning, I was doing real good. ;-)

What’s wrong with these people?

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-07-15 08:12:27

Having bought at age 22, I can tell you that if you have your financial head on straight at that age, you notice that you can live pretty cheaply once you own your abode outright. (Also, the monthly nut was cheaper than renting at the time.) ;)

The thinking is the sooner you get that process started, the sooner you can live on the cheap. (That was my thinking anyway.)

He’s obviously not taking eastcoaster’s warnings seriously that the rules have changed since his parents and/or grandparents bought a house.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-07-15 09:22:16

At that age, I wasn’t sure on which continent I would land upon, let alone set down roots for 30 years.

But your general principle is sound. Just not universal.

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Comment by eastcoaster
2008-07-15 11:08:23

More on this house. Here’s a snippet of the write up on it (from everyhome.com):

…Home can be rented for 1600/month after 7/1/08…

$1600/month? What’s the rent-to-price calculation? I’ve heard 100x rent or 120x rent. Either way, bought too high.

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-15 07:42:47

Does this settle the Housing Bubble Blog’s ongoing inflation vs. deflation debate? Bernanke — we’re screwed both ways!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apZCr_PzzE3Q&refer=home

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said risks to both U.S. growth and inflation have increased, abandoning officials’ June assessment that threats to the expansion had ‘diminished somewhat.’ There are ’significant downside risks to the outlook for growth,’ and `upside risks to the inflation outlook have intensified,’ Bernanke said in semiannual testimony on the economy to the Senate Banking Committee.”

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 08:04:04

the media is pulling on bob casey’s heart strings! these stooges need to quit reading the news papers it muddles their thinking!

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 08:23:12

If Fannie & Freddie go the way of the Dodo, will euthanasia feel the effects of their bad investment in our country?

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-07-15 08:38:11

“I think the system basically is sound, I truly do,”

When I read this quote from Bush, I flashed back to that video that intersperses Great Depression photos with comments by leading political figures of the time. I think this quote will do well in a new version of such a video for our “interesting” times.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25687265

 
Comment by NotInMontana
2008-07-15 08:55:17

Why do I get the feeling that the Realtors advertising these places are also the FBs? At 364K this place is way overpriced for the area, isn’t even finished, is in a new development, no landscaping…criminy. But it’s Smart Design!

Statistics indicate that a woman’s blood pressure rises when she enters her home. Big Sky Builders understands that areas of a home can cause stress for a woman. Smart Design intuitively appeals to women, offering distinctive home features and requirements to address the unique perspectives of women home buyers.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-07-15 09:08:30

Why does your blood pressure rise when you enter your home?

I just feel nice and relaxed. Maybe sit down when I’m tired; maybe imbibe a martini or three; maybe read a book curled up on my sofa with some cognac.

Oh wait, maybe that’s ’cause it’s a rental, and I’m not particularly chuffed about paying my rent each month.

Could that be the answer? Could we have some statistics on that? ;-)

Comment by NotInMontana
2008-07-15 09:37:31

Beats me…

Hey, I get it: Your blood pressure rises when you remember how much you paid and how far underwater you are on the POS!

 
 
 
Comment by Lurker100
2008-07-15 09:07:32

Can someone comment on health of HSBC? I have a significant amount of cash there (just under FDIC limit) since they still offer 3.5% on their online savings account, i also have a EUR account with them in France. Is HSBC doing better than US banks or are they just as screwed, especially when EU housing bubble pops?

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-07-15 09:24:58

They are doing relatively better (which doesn’t say much.)

They dumped their toxic waste the earliest when buyers lined up thinking they were getting bargains. They took their lumps early too.

Which doesn’t mean I’m gonna run out to buy the stock but I wouldn’t particularly get concerned about doing basic banking with them.

Depends on how much money, you have, of course.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2008-07-15 10:37:23

I would be interested in a discussion of where to put cash right now. I don’t know anything about the financial condition of HSBC, but the savings rate is attractive. I currently have cash (less than 100K each) in a couple of thrifts (First Federal and Wachovia), and it’s clearly past time to bail out. But where to go? Maybe short Treasuries?

Interesting note: Weiss Ratings’ web site is not responding this morning, I wonder if they’re getting slammed with hits from people who thinking along the same lines… :-)

Comment by hip in zilker
2008-07-15 11:23:30

I noticed that too … didn’t think about it. Thanks. :-)

 
Comment by patient renter
2008-07-15 13:30:00

I asked this same question yesterday since I also have some cash @ HSBC. A few of the suggestions I got included fmb.com, fnbodirect.com and Emigrant Direct. You can check ratings on the street’s screener:

http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/ratings/screener.html

As for myself, no decisions yet.

 
 
 
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 09:12:38

Paulson sees mortgage assistance as backup

He said that if the government extends any financial backing to the two institutions it will be done “under terms and conditions that protect the U.S. taxpayer.”

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/paulson_mortgage_crisis.html

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 09:25:43

dodd wants everyone to go along with his plan and dosent want anyone to raise a stink during the hearing now taking place. wheres ron paul?

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2008-07-15 09:35:53

Paulson just said our finacial markets have experienced tumoil since last August

Our financial markets have experienced turmoil since 2003 !

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 09:39:03

paulson sounds angry, and why is he not studdering anymore?

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 09:43:08

Nurse Ratched: You know Billy, what worries me is how your mother is going to take this.

Billy: Um, um, well, y-y-y-you d-d-d-don’t have to t-t-t-tell her, Miss Ratched.

 
 
Comment by miami33
2008-07-15 09:50:47

http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_9887096?nclick_check=1

Customers furious in Day 2 of fed bank takeover
By JACOB ADELMAN Associated Press Writer
Article Launched: 07/15/2008 08:24:12 AM PDT

LOS ANGELES—Police were called Tuesday to tame an angry crowd of IndyMac Bank customers trying to pull money from their accounts on Day 2 of a federal bank takeover.

At least three police squad cars showed up as tension mounted outside a branch in suburban Encino. Customers were warned against becoming unruly but no arrests were reported

“I’ve already lost three nights of sleep and three days of eating, now I’m done,” customer Joan Rubin said as she sat in a beach chair on the sidewalk, waiting for her turn to empty her account.

“It’s a very sad day in America,” she said.

 
Comment by Ernest
2008-07-15 10:23:17

Customers furious in Day 2 of fed takeover IndyMac

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Police have been called in to tame an angry throng of IndyMac Bank customers trying to pull money out of the Encino branch on Day 2 of a federal bank takeover.

At least three police squad cars showed up early Tuesday as tensions got heated outside the San Fernando Valley branch of Pasadena-based IndyMac.

Federal regulators seized Pasadena-based IndyMac on Friday and they opened yesterday under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Deposits to $100,000 are fully insured by the FDIC.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hUsHq4hmx_WYzcFWVjAsPnbQHB9AD91UCEBO1

Comment by matt
2008-07-15 10:35:20

That’ll make a nice picture on the evening news. Bank run anyone?

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-07-15 10:56:51

Sweet!!!

Watch the marginal banks go under as people actually start to haul out their money.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:39:00

How would one differentiate an ‘angry throng’, from the usual rabble?

Comment by hip in zilker
2008-07-15 11:26:28

they’re not talking on their cell phones and listening to their ipods

 
 
 
Comment by matt
2008-07-15 10:27:30

Sec restricts shorting of fre and fnm, primary dealers! What an idiotic move!

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:45:37

“Praising what is lost, makes the remembrance dear.”

William Shakespeare

 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-15 13:13:03

A non event. It is only for naked short selling. Most short sellers borrow stock from mutual funds etc. then sell. A naked short seller does not borrow stock, just enters a sell order.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-15 10:33:59

Paulson and BB want unlimited funds for bail-outs to fannie/fredie if needed . Of course the concept of having a blank check is causing a little concern from some members ,after all it’s the tax payers “blank check” . One Senator mention that the government has already lost 1 billion on the Bear Stearns deal . Paulsons point is that a blank check would create more confidence in the markets , but one Senator is saying that it’s their duty to protect the taxpayers funds , on and on …but that is what they are asking for and that is what the issue is .

 
Comment by Ernest
2008-07-15 10:40:33

Welcome To The Frozen Economy

Not Since The Depression Have Financial Difficulties So Immobilized Spending And Credit. Listen To The Talk At A Local Diner In Maine

The Polar ice cap may be melting, but the U.S. economy is frozen, starting right here in my small town. Gradually rising levels of dismay at the gas pump and in the supermarket gave way to paralytic shock last week when “lock-in” notices from the local fuel company arrived. This year’s advance price for home heating oil is nearly twice what people paid last year. A collective gasp of disbelief from my tough, resourceful Maine neighbors echoed across the meadows and up the rocky coast. Many claimed they would never sign the contract. “What’s your alternative?” I asked a friend.

“I don’t have one,” he muttered.

In the days that followed, a new quality of dread settled over the place like soot, as people weighed their options. Heat or food? Gas or electricity? Medicine or mortgage payments? What to give up? What to cut back? The conversations were everywhere. In the supermarket, I heard one man tell another: “When I was a kid, you woke up, went into the bathroom, and broke up the ice in the toilet. Now my kids will have to do the same. America is moving backward.”

My neighbors are like deer caught in the headlights: frozen in fear as something sinister, implacable, and wholly unanticipated lurches toward them. A reckoning has begun to unfurl like a dark flower, slowly at first, then gathering urgency and force. This is not a short detour after all, but an untraveled road to an unknown place from which there is no return, no escape and we are not prepared.

Spending Paralysis

The economic crisis has been triggered by what economists call “structural shifts” in the global supply and demand for commodities, coupled with the meltdown in the mortgage markets and the ensuing credit squeeze. But this crisis is now moving into a whole new gear, creating a new set of economic conditions that have yet to be named. Call it “the frozen economy.”

http://www.ksbw.com/money/16886597/detail.html

 
Comment by Marcus
2008-07-15 10:49:35

A question about lot prices:

A local developer is offering builders a “payback” of several thousands of $$ per lot after a house sells, which doesn’t show up on the appraisals of lot prices. For example, builders bought lots for 50K each during 2005-2007, built spec houses, and upon closing on a sale in 2008, the developer gives back 10K to builder as a separate transaction. A local developer is doing just this to clear spec homes, presumably without driving down the appraised value of the remining lots (>75% unsold). Is this fraud? It seems to me that the bank financing the developer would have an interest in the fair value of the collateral, which is being disguised here.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-15 10:55:04

Heated conservation going on between a Senator and Paulson regarding his request for a “blank check” for the GSE’s as a backstop . Of course the business channel broke for a commercial .Paulson seems to think that the blank check should be given based on his word that they know what they are doing . They should remind Paulson and BB that none of their predictions have panned out so far .

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-15 10:57:43

The Senators are balking at giving a “blank check” for the GSE’s . That means they will do it ….he he he .

Comment by matt
2008-07-15 11:30:59

Throw money at the problem, that’s all they know.

Comment by bluprint
2008-07-15 12:50:30

no big deal, they can just increase tax revenues.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 18:04:20

They also believe there is an infinite amount of (printable) money to be thrown.

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Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 11:55:16

what i dont get is how they think they can stop whats happening? the prices will still come down no matter what they do. they were the ones that caused this mess in the first place by not listening to what the countrys past had to tell them about the greed of the masses. rules were put into place to keep history from repeating itself, and our beloved government systematically torn down the foundation and then have the gall to start finger pointing and laying blame on others! none of this is going to make the bubble come back!

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 10:55:23

The amazing amount of volatility today is eerily reminiscent of the 1929-30 crash…

I recommend “Since Yesterday” by Frederick Lewis Allen, if you like your deja vu in print form.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 12:46:59

Gold shot up, got hammered back to the opening level, now shot up again. This market appears to be having a PPT slug fest.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 12:50:17

If you can explain the goings on today, you’re a bettor man than I, Gunga Din

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-15 11:00:26

Can you imagine a Treasury Sec. and a Fed Chairman going to the Government and asking for a blank check as needed for the GSE’s.
Any comments ?

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 11:09:08

Can you imagine the beginning of the end of our economy as you know it?

Comment by In Colorado
2008-07-15 11:44:47

I tell people that we probably staring down at hyperinflation’s maw and they say it can’t happen, or perhaps I should say that they refuse to believe it.

They call me a Chicken Little. When I remind them of how the housing market crash and banks failing happened as predicted they just get even more annoyed and tell me that I’m negative.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 11:56:10

Mexico 1975: 12.5 Pesos = One Dollar

Mexico 1990: 10,000 Pesos = One Dollar

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Comment by no mo So Cal
2008-07-15 13:26:48

doh!! nuevo peso - you fool!

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 13:32:40

1,000 old Pesos = 1 new Peso

Care to apologize?
___________________________________________________

“Throughout most of the 20th century, the Mexican peso remained one of the most stable currencies in Latin America, since the economy did not experience periods of hyperinflation common to other countries in the region. However, after the Oil Crisis of the late 1970s, Mexico defaulted on its external debt in 1982 and experienced several years of inflation and devaluation until a government economic strategy called the “Stability and Economic Growth Pact” (Pacto de estabilidad y crecimiento económico, PECE) was adopted under President Carlos Salinas. On 1 January 1993, the Bank of Mexico introduced a new currency, the nuevo peso (”new peso”, or MXN), written “N$” followed by the numerical amount. One new peso, or N$1.00, was equal to 1000 of the obsolete MXP pesos”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_peso

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 14:03:27

p.s

Many of you don’t understand why there are so many Mexicans that have come to our country in the past 20 years, so let me explain it to you…

If you were a middle-class Mexican with 100,000 Pesos in the bank in 1975, you had $8,000 U.S.

By 1990, that very same 100,000 Pesos was worth $10 U.S.

virtually the entire Mexican middle-class was wiped out, due to hyper-inflation.

What country will middle-class Americans go to for jobs, when hyper-inflation has ruined our country?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2008-07-15 11:05:32

up next the deflation part of the housing bubble , first we experienced sporatic inflation as billions leaked out of misguided RE investment seaking a home anywhere and any bubble, now as that cash dissipates the bubble blowing games are over. Unless ben bernake at the FED goes physco with the money supply ala Argentina.
——————————————————————————–
Oil prices plunge in massive sell-off fueled by fears of US economic woes, OPEC forecast

NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices plunged Tuesday as worries about the nation’s economic health moved to the fore and OPEC warned that high pump prices are likely to erode global demand for crude.
Prices at one point dropped more than $10 a barrel from the day’s high. By early afternoon, light, sweet crude was down $7.33 to $137.85 in an extremely volatile session.

Comment by takingbets
2008-07-15 12:39:42

“Oil prices fell harder than they have in 17 years”

headlines of the day. what will happen next?

 
 
Comment by yogurt
2008-07-15 11:09:30

Here it come folks - the bust has hit the Great White North:

Canadian house prices dropped in June for the first time in nine years:

“Canadian home prices fell in June for the first time since January, 1999, as the number of houses for sale remained at record levels.

The average price of an existing home fell 0.4 per cent in June to $341,096, compared with $342,615 the year before, according to statistics released Tuesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).”

Now I know that averages are a shaky indicator, but any YOY decline in a Canada-wide metric will burst the attitude that “it’s different here”.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 11:27:21

Hey hosers…

We served notice a year ago here in the states, that the state of the real estate market wasn’t so hot, I hope nobody got burned.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-15 11:17:32

Also, does anyone have a opinion on the proposal of putting limits on short selling would affect the stock market . I don’t know enough to know how that would affect the market .

Comment by matt
2008-07-15 11:19:59

If they were to do an overall ban of naked short selling, it would be a good thing. A targeted ban of the gse’s and broker dealers is stupid.

Comment by calex
2008-07-15 23:07:17

Agreed, Naked short selling is just one more failed “financial innovation.” I can understand borrowing shares to sell short, I can understand selling shares you own short, but why the fu(k should some clown be allowed to flood a market short selling shares they have created out of thin air.

Now speculating in futures.. raise the margin and that will kill any so called speculators. The rest have a reason to bet on future prices.
But really what else did they expect when these so called experts killed the dollar.

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-15 11:45:04

IF the government bars speculating in futures and IF the government goes back to the old days in short selling, many markets will move over seas. The US is already a Banana Republic - making financial policy decisions on Sundays. The pay is better in London and Hong Kong, the markets are not as deep yet. The easiest way to make them deeper is by closing down the US markets.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-15 11:53:34

It’d be a self-administered financial Smoot-Hawley shot to the head, that’s all.

 
Comment by cactus
2008-07-15 12:41:31

The US is already a Banana Republic - making financial policy decisions on Sundays.

yea whats with all the weekend bailouts ? I think the government is close to losing it……. not good.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-15 12:53:59

What do you mean by this? That wages are higher in those places (relative to cost of living)?

 
 
 
Comment by masstexodus
2008-07-15 11:40:53

Here in NW Austin I am seeing houses that have been on the market for months go FSBO with token 6% or so cuts. People are throwing their realtors under the bus but are still in denial about how much money they will net from the sale. My wife and walked a neighborhood of 300k-350k homes and they all still seem 50k-70k too high.

 
Comment by merce
2008-07-15 11:48:24

UK lenders call for own version of GSE’s. In your dreams.

Plans to lift UK Mortgage lending

 
Comment by Chip
2008-07-15 11:49:54

They’re givin’ ‘em away in Cape Coral:

http://fortmyers.craigslist.org/rfs/747759124.html

http://fortmyers.craigslist.org/rfs/751110439.html

Folks, this is what the bottom is going to look like in a lot of places. Few consider that the bottom can be lower than levels before the bubble. It might even go lower in unadjusted dollars than the 1998 pricing a lot of us forecast.

 
Comment by Chip
2008-07-15 11:57:36

As for Florida’s smug Save Our Homes owners, some additional rain on this very rainy Central Florida day:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/orange/orl-bk-orlando-tax-hike-071508,0,4126616.story

SOH protects only against an increase in assessed value of more than 3% in a year. But current appraisers (who can be unelected, hint, hint!) are working from bubble numbers and so the 3% is dead certain, IMO. Now we add in a big increase in the millage rate, against which SOH owners have no protection and shazaam!- a big tax increase for all those who don’t own very modest homes. The ones who thought they’d be better off with an increase in the homestead exemption are … not. The rest are increasingly screwed.

1,000 people a day,huh. Don’t think so, Fred.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-15 13:26:03

This one has been on craigslist for a little while now. It is getting more desperate. I thought this latest post was funny.

http://littlerock.craigslist.org/rfs/755293627.html

Comment by Chip
2008-07-15 21:17:50

Guess someone didn’t - sucker got flagged.

 
 
Comment by REhobbyist
2008-07-15 13:30:16

I just won a five dollar bet I made with a friend in April, that Dow would close below 11,000 before Sept. 1. Thanks, guys.

 
Comment by NotInMontana
2008-07-15 13:35:25

Downpayment assistance at craigslists. WTF?

http://montana.craigslist.org/rfs/756278620.html

 
Comment by Frank Hague
2008-07-15 13:48:33

An argument from Barron’s as to why real estate is about to rebound.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121581623724947273.html?mod=ba_mp_view&page=sp

Still other numbers suggest prices are close to bottoming. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index for April, released just last month, showed the biggest year-over-year price decline yet, of 15.3%. Buried in the numbers, however, and widely ignored in the media, was the news that home prices actually rose, albeit slightly, between March and April, in eight of the 20 markets covered by the index (Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Portland, Ore., and Seattle). This was in sharp contrast to the readings for March, which showed prices falling in 18 of the 20 surveyed markets. Also, the pace of monthly price declines is starting to slow in most of the markets with negative readings.

“Other than Larry Kudlow of CNBC, none of the journalists who interviewed me after the latest release seemed at all interested in any of the positive developments,” says David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee. “They seemed focused on the bad year-over-year number.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 14:30:33

“Also, the pace of monthly price declines is starting to slow in most of the markets with negative readings.”

Dead cat slowing. Just wait until the GSE scare plus higher PMI rates filters through to purchase demand.

 
Comment by sartre
2008-07-15 21:33:00

Whats going to sustain this price rise? Massive number of well qualified buyers with 20% down and excellent credit?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 16:27:59

July 15, 2008, 12:00 pm
Bunning: The Fed, GSEs and Socialism

Republican Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky, a member of the Senate Banking Committee and a longtime thorn in the side of the Fed (and the only senator to vote against Greenspan’s confirmation in 2004) took more swipes at the central bank in his statement during the question-and-answer session with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-15 19:54:16

Senator Bunning’s for President . I really was in shock when Paulson and Bernanke asked for a “blank check ” amount for a backstop to support the GSE’s.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-15 18:08:42

Overview: Concerns over US economy trigger turmoil
By Dave Shellock in London, Michael Mackenzie and Nicole Bullock in New York
Published: July 15 2008 18:58 | Last updated: July 15 2008 21:25

Financial markets were engulfed by volatile trading yesterday as fears about the global financial sector were compounded by fresh concerns about the US economic outlook and a plunge in the price of oil.

Early in New York, global equities – which have been under intense pressure recently from worries about US mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – continued to slide, while the dollar touched a record low against the euro.

‘’Pessimism has really snowballed,’’ said William Strazzullo, chief market strategist at Bell Curve Trading. ‘’It has taken a real sense of panic for stock markets to keep breaking beyond the lows seen in March.’’

Comment by Bill in Maryland
2008-07-15 18:30:43

Ho hum. Work as usual. Demand for more hours and no lack of traffic on the roads as people continue getting their paychecks.

Stay tuned. Economic depression in 2009. What? 6 months or more from now. At least that’s Harry Dent’s prediction. But I don’t take anyone’s word on gospel. 25% government securities and 10% gold is enough for me. At 50 in 2009 I will contribute my max to stock mutual funds. This is my last week this year to put money in my 401k - 100% stock mutual funds.

People who invest emotionally and change their asset alloocation on barometric pressure get nowhere.

 
 
Comment by Don't Know Nothin About Buyin No House
2008-07-15 19:59:46

Suddenly the “cryin in your beer” stories about how renters are getting the short end and the homeowners and fat cat Wallstreeters are the big winnerd in the Fannie/Freddie bailout sound so stupid. I think it was this article that did it.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10426547/1/taxpayers-bear-brunt-of-this-bailout.html?puc=newshome

“NIcholas” (mr. boo hoo) says because some poor schumk made .05 more yield on his silly little GSE Bond that bailing out fannie/freddie makes us renters fools and left holding the bag in the end? I think not. How can this guy profess that those of us who stepped away from housing mania are getting penalized? Saving 300K on my home when I buy in 2011 more than makes up for any slighly higer GSE yield (compared to CD) or lower points on mortgage loans people may have gotten from the Fannie/Freddie fraud. The GSE stocks got killed though and that was good and just and I am convinced God is a renter. Yes, we will all pay tax dollars to support the bail, but that is at least equitable among everybody - and does not bother me that much.

 
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