‘What Happened Last Year Was An Enigma’ In Myrtle Beach
A pair of housing bubble reports from the Carolinas. “Pitt Center was overcrowded when many realtors appeared to tell Southern Shores Town Council that something needS to be done concerning the current regulations regarding temporary ‘Open House’ real estate signs. David Hoare, along with fellow realtors, told council that times have changed drastically in the real estate market in Dare County.”
“According to these realtors, recent figures suggest a slowing of real estate activity, evidenced by the fact that real estate closings were down approximately 50 percent during the first three months of 2006. The realtors also told council that real estate has become a ‘buyers market’ in Dare County and prices are falling as to amounts potential sellers can ask for their properties.”
From the Myrtle Beach Sun Times. “The number of condos for sale on the Grand Strand market has more than tripled since the first quarter last year, causing a shift toward a buyer’s market. That makes this a good time for those wanting to buy more affordable condos because they’ll have more options and some condos have seen price decreases, said (realtor) Rachel Broadhurst. ‘We’ve been calling them all and telling them to come on back,’ Broadhurst said.”
“First-quarter statistics from the MLS show 9,012 condos on the market, compared to 2,712 during the same period last year. Condo sales also have dropped 4 percent from the same period last year. A large number of hotel conversions and apartment conversions have been added to the market. The increase in listings and less demand have caused some condo prices to decrease in the past three months.”
“‘Certainly we think we’ll see good condo sales. But we’re not going to sap up this 250 percent increase [in condo listings],’ Broadhurst said. ‘Sometimes the market has to stop and take a breath because it needs to re-evaluate.’”
“Single-family home listings increased 40 percent. ‘It’s nothing to be concerned about. Last year was just a crazy, crazy year, and people have to understand that. We can’t base everything on what happened last year. It was an enigma,’ said (realtor) Tom Maeser.”
“Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wachovia in Charlotte, N.C., said many areas are seeing an increase in listings because people think the market is softening and they want to sell now. ‘Folks are realizing that the housing boom is drawing to an end,’ he said.”
“Developer Mike Kelly in Atlantic Beach said he’s concerned about a saturated condo market. He said he isn’t worried about selling out his planned 141-unit complex, but he is concerned about other developers who must sell out 400 to 500-unit towers. He said he doesn’t want speculators buying in his development. ‘That contributed to the problem, speculators running the prices up,’ he said.”
I happened to watch the A&E reality show “Flip This House” a few weeks ago. It’s filmed in South Carolina, and features a redneck version of Donald Trump… complete with a cast of white trash co-workers.
I was left speechless.
That’s not a bad show. The head guy is fairly likeable, and Ginger is sort of hot.
LOL
There’s an old joke…which I will paraphrase for you:
One out of three Americans are white trash. If you look to the left and don’t see white trash, and you look to the right and don’t see white trash… guess what?
Uh-oh - bonds.
10 yr Treasury this morning 5.026%
First time above 5% during this move to higher rates.
As most know, this is the benchmark for mortgage rates.
All LIBOR based rates at or above 5 also - this is the peg for ST adj rates. Stick a fork in the bubble!
Bubble stock valuations are returning to normalcy in response…
http://tinyurl.com/o7skt
FWIW, it’s a new 52-week intraday low for HOV today so far. Sure would be nice for it to close below it and make it official. Can’t explain why TOL shot right backup and kept going, except for my usual paranoid fantasies of PPT intervention &c.
Don’t forget about the Toll stock buyback program (aka private Plunge Protection…). Or maybe it is just that we have a shortage of McMansions in the $1m+ price range, and the stock price is efficiently adjusting to a permanently high equilibrium plateau.
30 year treasury rate is 5.10%.
What will the freddie mac mortgage survey show when it comes out today? That is the big story of the day.
Hey everybody, lets have a survey - when will Freddie Mac release their financials for 2004 and 2005. Willl it be in 2006?
This report from the Carolinas is most appreciated. So many from Northern VA think fleeing down there is the answer, and I have a neighbor who bought a house on speculation in Charlotte. There do seem to be jobs in Raleigh. But I have noticed a number of foreclosures in that area as well.
On my foreclosure blog, I’ve posted on the default problem in areas of NC. It’s ahead of many areas because of job loss and risky loans.
NC has a do-nothin’; look-the-other way, good-’ole boy, appraiser regulatory agency.
Most guess would be the state has been fully looted by the mortgage O sleazebags.
Look out below!!!!!!!!!!!
I go to Myrtle Beach every year for a family vacation/reunion. One of my favorite golf courses was tore up to build condos. That area is nothing but a tourist/service industry economy. It will take FOREVER to work off the excess supply there. It is a resort town, plain and simple. The speculators will take a bath there. 10 year at 5.026%.
We can’t base everything on what happened last year. It was an enigma,’ said (realtor) Tom Maeser.”
“Enigma” as in baffled, unexplained, mystery. I don’t think so.
perhaps he meant to say “Enima”
2005 saw a home price blow-out all over the US, yet we are told there is no national bubble.
We can’t base everything on what happened last year. It was an ENEMA,’ said (realtor) Tom Maeser
Latst year was beacuse of baby boomers, immigrants, new paradigm, etc..!?!?!?!??!
It was a National bubble . We should have a national holiday called National Bubble Week in memory of the most bizarre
run up of prices in history .
Well Said. A similar situation at the Outer Banks - except that it started last spring.
Or enema.
You guys need to hush this Bubble Talk.
You are scaring all the buyers away.
When this thing crashes it will be all your fault.
“Hush The Bubble”
OT, in that it’s SW, i.e., CA–LA in particular, not Myrtle Beach. But I haven’t seen this article posted here–though maybe I missed it. (Apologies if that’s the case) I’ve decided to switch my obsessive energy to Iran, Peak Oil/Gold, and Global Warming….as buying a house here in Seattle is now out of the question for the time being. And these other issues, such as global warming/peak oil seem so much more mammoth.
In the interest of “balance,” or just to keep everyone on their toes and ready to counter the sceptics–
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes13apr13,0,237943.story?coll=la-home-business
The median will continue to rise for a period even after the bubble has been punctured to the the quirks of median prices.
It is not able to adjust for quality or product mix.
But the good news is that the bubble got equal billing with rising median prices.
The L A Times and many other rags, would not even tell the truth about what’s really happening. I would not take this as the gospel of the L A market. Why are some MLS’ rotating and relisting inventory? Keeping the public clueless is job # 1. If people believe a newspaper article, then they deserve to be SOS=Stuck On Stupid.
I could not resist writing about what showed up in our mailbox the other day. Enjoy.
She Had No Way of Knowing Who Lived Here
Ha- thats good.
Is’nt it funny how realtors have shifted from advertising geared towards convincing people to sell their homes to advertising geared towards getting people to buy a home????
Unfortunately for them the demand quickly turned “back to normal” almost over night. With out demand from flippers and investors (upwards of 40% last year) you have a very limited supply of buyers, with even those who plan on living in the home having their doubts about buying combine that with the fact speculators and flippers are all trying to sell and you get this massive inventory glut we have now.
All depends on who they’re talking to. I’ve gotten a realtor flyer (from different realtors) tellin me that now is the perfect time to sell and cash out on the same day as a flyer telling me that this was an excellent time to buy.
I read your response, “She Had No Way of Knowing Who Lived Here”. That was great. Did you actually send her a copy? I’d love to hear her response.
Tim, that was awesome. Nice work.
No FED bailout when these “investors” find their homes destroyed by erosion or a hurricane. We should not have to bail these people out for their foolish choice to buy on a barrier island. There is a reason they are called barrier islands. What’s next? Maybe they could plop a manufactured home on an iceberg?
Same thing goes for beach front houses. They are beach front and that shiny blue thing you can see out of your is the ocean which periodically overruns costal areas. No FED bailouts for them either!!
Same thing goes for beach front houses. They are beach front and that shiny blue thing you can see out of your window is the ocean which periodically overruns costal areas. No FED bailouts for them either!!
“He said he isn’t worried about selling out his planned 141-unit complex, but he is concerned about other developers who must sell out 400 to 500-unit towers.”
I am not worried about me, nooooo….I am just concerned about everyone else. Harharhar
Simmsays…
http://www.AmericanInventorSpot.com
AmericanInventorSpot.com
Slightly OT, from this morning’s SD Union Tribune:
Condos, yes: signs: no.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20060413-9999-7m13signs.html
(My suggested byline: Developers Challenge Ban on Spinstructor-trained Human Directionals)
If I had a son and he was on that first picture - I would dis-own him! LMAO. They look like crayons!
Spinning class. California style.
Wow, up to $20 an hour for a sign-spinner. Maybe they hired that snowboarder who blew the gold medal because she was showboating.
I’m with the real estate people on this one. They ought to be able to find a lawyer clever enough to nit-pick the definition of “temporary sign”.
You can also make $20K/mo as an apprentice real estate investor in SD, according to innumerable hand-printed signs…
I’m on the lookout here in Silicon Valley for the day when we have three different spinners on three different corners. That’ll be a pick for the old gallery, huh.
I have a list of a few intersections here and there that I know have ondo-farms in three or four different directions. I’ve seen two spinners on the job at the same time, but haven’t seen three yet.
If I ever see all four I’ll probably wreck my car in astonishment.
I think the Carolina’s are in a good spot, there are a lot of baby-boomers retiring here in Florida and moving up there in search of cheaper homes & to get out of the mess Florida has become.
They even call them “Half-backers” those who moved to Florida from the Midwest & NY-NJ and now are retiring only to move half back.
The Carolinas are growing in population, but remember that in “normal” times population growth does not necessarily mean rapid price appreciation. The unusual appreciation in some Carolina towns lately is primarily the result of equity cashouts from elsewhere, as well as loose lending/risky loans taken out by the locals.
The Carolinas have a great deal of undeveloped land still, and even in the developed areas the density is pretty low, so there is still a lot of room for infill housing. Also, they are building much faster than the growth in households, with the excess being sucked up by speculators.
Probably things won’t crash in the Carolinas, more of a levelling out. Remember that rents have remained at a permanently low plateau in many Carolina towns while home prices have risen.
Research Triangle area probably has better prospects than other areas - they have good jobs there and an economy that is likely to keep growing. Charlotte may end up all right too. As far as the mountain and coastal towns full of vacation homes and speculation, look out!
People are moving here, yes, but there is still tons of developable land. I suppose the future for the Carolinas depends upon how quickly the main bubbles deflate. We’ve been part of the rolling bubble and absorbing equity cashout cash from other locals. In normal times, population growth does not automatically translate into rapid price appreciation. I’ve noticed that rents seemed to have settled into a permanently low plateau as the construction of specuvestor homes has resulted in increased rental vacancies.
More SD real estate news:
‘Lennar to house urban divisions under one roof
Consolidation will lead to layoffs in S.D. office
By Lori Weisberg
STAFF WRITER
April 13, 2006
Major U.S. home-builder Lennar Corp. has decided to consolidate its Southern California divisions specializing in urban development, a move that will lead to a significant downsizing of its downtown San Diego office.
Regional Vice President Mike Levesque, confirming the reorganization yesterday, insisted the move will not diminish the company’s presence in San Diego County, where it has major developments under way in Carlsbad’s Bressi Ranch, a traditional tract-home community, and downtown.
“This is not a message of pulling out of the market,” Levesque said. “We are absolutely committed to the San Diego market. We’re as committed today as we ever have been in the past.” ‘
Uh-huh, uh-huh…
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060413/news_1b13lennar.html
First it was the Mtg companies “right sizing” - now the HB’s!
Like restrictions on allowing a few idiots to spin signs is really go help this condo glut. There might be some arson attempts as people realize that their ‘investment’ has become a white elephant choking them to death.
Those sign spinners are a great idea… As the real estate market declines and condos are for sale they offer employment for all those real estate agents and mortgage brokers who are getting laid off. The more the market slows the more demand there will be for sign flippers. I think its a great thing.
Well he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. He is obviously lying here, and so we pummel him. If he told the truth he would be fired and then pummeled by his wife and family for not lying. What is a guy to do? LOL! The last honest man left town about 10 years ago anyway. We all know the truth is in the process of coming out right as we speak regardless of this type of nonsense from a real estate official. I have done business with this guy recently and he is an interesting character, but nontheless a pawn.
‘The current regulations in Southern Shores restrict “Open House” signage to one sign for the house offered for sale to be displayed between the hours of 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. and only when a salesperson is on duty at the home for sale. Regulations also prohibit such signs being placed in the right-of-way.’
So now it is the towns fault for restriction of offensive signs. I hope for the residents sake that the realtors assn proposal fails.
But it does leave the realtors with their out - “Sorry, folks the reason your condo has no bids is because the town wont let us advertise with signage.”
You know it’s going south when even MSN gets in on reporting the Bubble action on their front page. Phoenix is listed in their view as dropping by 10%.
Read the article here
“‘We’ve been calling them all and telling them to come on back,’ Broadhurst said.”
You gotta love it when you get a cold call out of the blue from a RE agent who wouldn’t give you the time of day last year but dug your name out of the trash this year. I think that I’d play along using up lots of their hours intending to buy absolutely nada, or maybe I’d just enter their office with a gift wrapped box containing a jar of Vasoline.
$20.00 per hour to “spin” signs in San Diego…..
No wonder house prices are sky high!
I don’t know about all of you, but nothing says “buy a 300,000 condo conversion like a guy spinning a sign on the corner”.
Buying real estate is a major financial move, yet they think they can market condos like they are donuts or hamburgers.
Last year, yeah i would say that would appleal to the hoards of speculators foaming at the mouth to buy everything from converted hotel rooms to mcmansions.
This year, its the owner occupant, regular joe six pack buyers who plan on living in the house and will spend countless hours seeking the perfect home or condo for them. If they stop in, chances are they are live down the street and are just there to check the place out and tell all their freinds how “they can’t beleive what those idiots are charging for a former apartment”.
We knew people who moved down to Raleigh, NC in 1999 and bought a supposed “mansion” for $500,000. I wonder how they’ve done with it.
I’d hate to be a buyer right now, but I would guess that the Research Triangle in the Carolinas should see above average home price appreciation over say the next 10 years. It just seems people are moving there in droves so as to cash in on their homes in costlier (and colder) northern cities. The state has some pretty amazing mountains in the west and beautiful beaches in the east, although admittedly distant from each other.
We’re seeing the people “from away” keeping coastal Maine inventory trimmed. If outmigrants from places like NYC are keeping us aloft, over the long haul I’d think they’d really pump up the Carolinas.
“The prohibition against more than one sign and the placing of signs in the right-of-way, particularly along NC 12, defeats the owner’s efforts by not properly advertising that the property is available for sale.”
I wasn’t aware that an abundance of signs was the only way to advertise a house for sale. But with the enormous rise of stagnant inventory, let’s just assume that every house and condo is for sale, who needs a sign….problem solved.
“Hoare said that it may have been inexperienced real estate agents who never challenged prohibitive ordinances when these ordinances came up for enactment by town councils. He said most real estate agents were too busy trying to do a good job for their respective clients in the very busy times past.”
Aww, what a noble take on his proffession. It’s more likely that most of the Realtors they let join in the busy times past don’t have high school diplomas and don’t know what an ordinance is.
An enigma? A riddle wrapped in a mystery? Doesn’t sound like a permanently high plateau to me…
““Today’s combination of prices rising more slowly, fewer sales and growing supply are typical of the first phase of a slowdown, UCLA economist Christopher Thornberg says. ‘Prices are still going up, because they always go up even when the market starts to cool,’ he says. ‘It will take six to nine months for a cooling market to start to see lower prices. It happens time after time.’”
CT is full of cra*… Prices do go down. There is already a oversupply of homes in the San Jose Area. We will see those $1M ranchers comming down by half. No suprise there.
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