The Housing Bubble

The Longmont Times Call reports from Colorado. “Home sales in Longmont are expected to surpass last year’s numbers, and experts say that’s one sign that the local market is healthier than many other parts of the country. ‘All real estate is local,’ said Marty Quigley, current president of the Longmont Association of Realtors. ‘Longmont is not San Francisco. We’re not Arizona. We’re not Las Vegas.’”

“But Longmont has not been immune to the national trends in the housing market. Home values have been falling in Longmont, just as they have everywhere else. ‘We saw too many builders coming into the area and building too many homes,’ said Reid Williams, president-elect of the Longmont Association of Realtors, said Wednesday.”

“There have been 327 foreclosures filed within Longmont’s 80501 and 80503 ZIP codes through June, according to Boulder County Public Trustee records. That’s on pace to surpass last year’s total of 574 foreclosures filed, which was a record.”

“Chris Hirai of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, noted that for potential homeowners, interest rates remain near historic lows and there are still options for first-time buyers to get into the market. ‘It’s not like the last four years, where if you could fog a mirror you could get a home loan, but there still are some options out there,’ Hirai said.”

The Citizen Telegram from Colorado. “A number of homes over a half million dollars are on the market right now, two in Rifle and one on Silt Mesa. They’re going for pricey figures, anywhere from $605,000 to $780,000.”

“‘It’s definitely a buyers market right now,’ Realtor Andy Stanczak said. ‘We’re stuck on last year’s prices. There’s limited buyers out there, too. Not many people are in the market for homes of this caliber.’”

“Overall, there are a lot of listing for homes in the area. ‘Last year we had, maybe, 10 new listings a day. Now we have 30. Listing service books for Pitkin and Garfield Counties have been an inch thick and now it’s two inches thick,’ Stanczak said.”

“Stanczak said while there are homes on the market, it is a lot harder to qualify for mortgages because of all the stipulations. Last year, they offered ‘no-document mortgages,’ he said. ‘That sure isn’t the case now,’ he added.”

The Arizona Republic. “Valley home prices continued their year-over-year plunge in April, dropping a record 18 percent as the impact of foreclosures and other economic factors exerted even greater influence, according to an ASU report.”

“The Arizona State University Repeat Sales Index, which tracks repeat same-home sales, reported an ‘off-the-cliff drop’ in home prices because, in large part, of foreclosures, which made up 20 percent to 30 percent of all April home sales.”

“ASU real-estate Professor Karl Guntermann said the Valley’s ‘northeast region,’ which includes north Phoenix, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, saw its first-ever double-digit drop in home prices, down 10.2 percent from the previous April. Its year-over-year decline in March was just 4.3 percent.”

“The southwest region, which includes Avondale, Buckeye and Goodyear, had the worst year-over-year slide, as home prices plummeted 30.6 percent from a year earlier, falling even further from March’s 12-month decline of 22.9 percent.”

“Guntermann, who compiled the report, said the continued rise in foreclosures was significant, but that gas prices, interest rates, tougher lending standards and buyer psychology also took their toll.”

“‘It’s not just one thing,’ he said. ‘That’s what’s so depressing, in a way.’”

From KTAR.com in Arizona. “‘A 300,000-dollar house goes to $240,000,’ said Guntermann.”

“Guntermann said what is shocking is that the decline in home prices is spreading to Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek, which now are seeing double-digit declines for the first time.”

“The northeast ‘has been the one part of the Valley that’s been holding up fairly well, but it’s gone south as well, now,’ Guntermann said.”

“Guntermann sees no end in sight. ‘Given how much prices went up there for two, two and a-half years, they’ve really come down a fairly small percentage of the total increase,’ he said. ‘That suggests there are more declines to come.’”

“Three luxury retirement communities with a combined 850 units are under development in northern Scottsdale. Executives at all three say they are not worried about overbuilding these communities.”

“All three communities are going after so-called ‘go-go seniors,’ who play golf, tennis, hike and exercise regularly. ‘These people are not just waiting to pass on,’ said Jason Craik, whose company is building Arté.”

“Mark Myers, a senior VP for Marcus & Millichap, said…sales of luxury retirement units in Scottsdale will depend greatly on the recovery of the single-family housing market nationally. ‘Some of the go-go seniors are having trouble because they have trapped equity in their homes,’ he said.”

The Mohave Daily News from Arizona. “The Mohave County Assessor’s Office has sent out appeal notices for 2,160 assessed properties for 2009, which property owners should get by Monday. The assessed value of all property in Mohave County was $27 billion in 2008. That has decreased to about $25 billion for the 2009 calendar year, Assessor Ron Nicholson said.”

“Stick-built homes, or Mohave County homes that are not factory built, have seen a 15 percent drop in assessed value from the 2008 assessments. Nicholson said he does not expect the housing market to improve for another three or four years.”

“The number of foreclosure sales in the county, which are considered in the valuation process, is also ‘off the chart,’ Nicholson said.”

The Reno Gazette Journal from Nevada. “A federal bankruptcy judge appointed a trustee Tuesday to oversee the case of a Reno mortgage company recently taken over by the state after allegations of forged loan documents, possible fraud and questionable financing that has filed for Chapter 11 reorganization.”

“‘Over the past few years,’ said Cetus Mortgage owner Marcilin Benvin’s lawyer, Kevin Darby, ‘the real estate market, particularly the residential real estate market in Washoe County, Nevada, has suffered a dramatic and debilitating downturn. As a result, Washoe County has seen an unprecedented rate of borrower defaults. Cetus, and the loans it brokered, were not immune from the market crash.’”

“In the motion for an examiner instead of a trustee, Darby said Cetus has a plan for taking care of its financial problems that included having another company take over loan servicing obligations.”

“Darby’s argument ‘would be more persuasive if that willingness (to take care of investors) had been provided before posting a note on the door,’ said U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Gregg Zive. ‘There was no wind-down. They just simply stepped off the edge of a cliff.’”

The Record Courier. “Carole Thompson, executive director of the 185-member Douglas County Building Industry Association, said sales of new homes are still down. ‘Our members, mostly custom home builders, sold about five houses in June,’ Thompson said. ‘I can’t sit here and say it’s not bad. It’s bad, but we will gradually come back.’”

“Realtor Christianne Gordon said…one must consider declined home values. ‘If you are a seller, you may still be pining for prices of 2005,’ she said. ‘If you don’t absolutely have to sell right now, and simply can’t stomach the temporary market correction we are in, don’t.’”

The Las Vegas Business Press from Nevada. “Some Las Vegas condominium owners feel abused after buying units as investments only to see demand for the thousands of high-rise residences recently opened or under construction tumble.”

“Already, the Signature at MGM Grand has generated two very similar cases from buyers who claim they bought units based on exaggerated sales pitches. Now they want refunds.”

“‘The fact that a lot of buyers purchased condo hotel units with the expectation they would throw off enough cash to make a profit, combined with what’s going on with the economy creates an awful lot of disgruntled owners,’ said Dante Alexander, president of the National Association of Condo Hotel Owners in Scottsdale, Ariz.”

“In a statement, MGM Mirage, half-owner of the Turnberry/MGM Grand Towers joint venture that developed the three Signature towers, said it was in ‘full compliance with all applicable laws.’”

“The sales contracts, the company added, contained numerous disclaimers in capital, boldface letters that disowned any income projections. Buyers were required to initial each page that contained the warnings.”

“‘Unfortunately, it seems that some real estate speculators made their own assumptions, which were not realistic,’ the company said.”

“The Signature buyers filed as a class action. The prices paid by the named plaintiffs ranged from $425,000 to $745,000. The fundamental problem, Alexander said, was the mindset that prevailed during the real estate boom.”

“‘Condo-hotels are a lifestyle decision, a very cost-effective way to have a second home,’ he said. ‘Unfortunately too many buyers viewed them as an investment. And unfortunately, a lot of developers used that to their advantage.’”

“In spite of two misdemeanor citations against the Meridian Luxury Suites for renting rooms overnight, the upscale condo-development is continuing to take overnight guests, some residents contend.”

“The present Meridian conversion to condo hotel is sparking friction between the minority of owners who permanently reside there and the majority, all out-of-towners, that bought as an investment, and don’t want their units to sit idle.”

“‘I was just talking to a guy at the pool today, and he said he is staying here and leaving today. He arrived July Fourth,’ Meridian resident-owner Kathleen Mannix said. ‘He is staying here with his guy friends. The four of them are in from Chicago to celebrate his birthday.’”

“Southern Nevada had 3,192 new foreclosures in the first quarter, or roughly 35 a day, Clark County records show. It’s an 89.4 percent increase from year. Local home sales improved during that time as a result of a 28.5 percent price cut, but a year’s worth of inventory still remains, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors figures show.”

“And things could get worse. The number of homes undergoing foreclosure reached a new high of 6,165 in the first quarter, up 129.9 percent from 2007.”

“National builders are constantly pressured by Wall Street to trim expenses and increase profits. It has forced many firms to divest land holdings to improve balance sheets.”

“‘We have some of the biggest builders in the United States in this city. The big key is that development costs haven’t declined. They are selling lots today for less than it cost to develop them. Banks have been writing down lot values,’ said Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research.”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “New-home sales in Las Vegas have been consistently low over the past six months and appear to have reached the bottom of the current down cycle, a local housing analyst said Wednesday.”

“Dennis Smith of Home Builders Research counted 922 recorded escrow closings for new homes in June, bringing the total for the first half of the year to 5,747, a 45.1 percent decrease from a year ago.”

“Taking out 114 high-rise and mid-rise condos and 31 apartment conversions, sales of traditional single-family detached homes totaled 777, the sixth straight month under 1,000. The high mark of 3,233 came in June 2006.”

“The median price of all new-home product sold in June was $269,900, a decline of $54,000, or 16.7 percent, from the same month a year ago. Smith said he doesn’t see much of a drop in new-home prices.”

“‘They can’t build them for any less than they’re selling for now or they just won’t build them,’ he said.”

“About 65 percent of resale closings in June were real estate-owned, or bank-owned homes, according to the MLS. The number of homes sold by the bank has increased 18 percent over the past three months, Smith noted.”

“As more real estate-owned properties hit the market, they will drive prices down and cut into existing-home sales, said Robert Lee, CEO of Foreclosure Trackers. ‘Say you’ve got two three-bedroom, two-bath model match homes,’ he said. ‘One’s bank-owned for $300,000 and one’s a resale for $400,000. Which one’s going to sell?’”

“Lee, whose business is buying first mortgages from lenders when they go under, said a typical first mortgage might be $500,000 on a home that was appraised at $550,000, but an updated broker’s price opinion puts the value at $320,000.”

“‘You know what I’ll pay for that loan? I’ll pay $200,000,’ he said. ‘You’re selling me a defaulted mortgage. How about document deficiency? Whatever the broker’s price opinion comes in at, we’ll pay 55 cents on that, max. That’s the model.’”

“The median resale price in June was $218,000, a decline of $62,000, or 22.2 percent, from a year ago, Home Builders Research reported.”

“As the inventory of real estate-owned and short sales increased, roughly tripling in both categories since the beginning of the year, lending institutions have become markedly aggressive in pricing homes to sell, said Frank Nason, president of Las Vegas-based Residential Resources.”

“Who says real estate went bust? Mostly the media, argues the operator of a new Realtor-oriented Web site. The idea: to show that consumers and Realtors needn’t view the entire national real estate market as a downer. Nuggets of positive news exist virtually everywhere, even in Las Vegas, said the site’s founder, Leon d’Ancona.”

“‘The media latches onto sensationalism wherever possible,’ said d’Ancona, who’s also president of (a) Toronto-based real estate information firm. ‘People want to read about morbidity or whatever, but, for the sake of the real estate industry, we can look at some good things.’”

“D’Ancona’s Web site drew praise from at least one local Realtor. In an online forum, Prudential Americana Group sales broker David Boyer lauded d’Ancona’s premise that the media overlook market subtleties that paint a decent picture of the real estate market.”

“‘Leon is absolutely correct! Like politics, all real estate is local,’ wrote Boyer, whose brokerage enjoyed its own spot of happy news last week when it emerged from bankruptcy. ‘I wish the purveyors of doom and gloom understood that simple fact!’”

“Boyer’s analysis didn’t improve over the phone. You know it’ll be bad when the first sentence out of someone’s mouth is, ‘Please don’t take offense.’”

“The slow market is ‘not the media’s fault,’ Boyer said. ‘You’re just the easiest target, right ahead of Realtors. It’s the media’s fault only in that we have dumbed down the way we report and write the news.’”

“Portraying the market in broad strokes isn’t fair or honest, say d’Ancona and Boyer. It would be more accurate to home in on specific neighborhoods, districts and market segments that buck downward trends.”

“‘You don’t go into a restaurant and say, ‘All the food is good’ or ‘All the food is bad,’ d’Ancona said. ‘There’s good everywhere if you look at it. I don’t see anybody saying, ‘Hey, we know it’s bad out there, but at least there’s some good stuff out there.’”