July 18, 2008

Falling Like Tears From A Tall Camel’s Eye

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Marin’s condominium market matched Bay Area trends. The median price dropped 26 percent to $410,000 in June from $470,000 in May. ‘What you see in Marin is an adjustment, not a depreciation,’ said Margaret Deedy, a broker in Greenbrae. ‘It’s a market where your houses are not appreciating. They’re basically holding level.’”

“Foreclosure properties accounted for 10.2 percent of Marin’s market. Big price drops are more an indication of the growing foreclosure problem than true market value, according to Corina Rollins, who has taught real estate at the College of Marin for more than 20 years.”

“‘You’re seeing fire sale prices offered by lenders that don’t want them and will get rid of them at most any price,’ she said, highlighting recent trends in Novato and Sonoma. ‘You’ve got too many properties that are getting dumped and too few selling. We’re going to see softening in prices. That’s absolutely a given.’”

“Kevin Kieffer, a Realtor who covers central and eastern Contra Costa County, said he is doing a brisk business in foreclosures. Many foreclosed properties are selling for half the price they reached during the giddy peak two years ago.”

“‘Right now, I’d say a Brentwood four-bedroom, two-bathroom with 2,600 square feet that was $650,000 a couple of years ago can easily be had for $325,000 and below,’ Kieffer said. ‘In Concord, three-bedroom ranch homes that were selling for $500,000; you can get those post-foreclosure for $225,000 or $250,000.’”

“‘This is pretty grim; double digits across the board,’ said Christopher Thornberg, principal at Los Angeles’ Beacon Economics. ‘It was eminently predictable if you had a realistic view of the world. I heard a lot of people say the Bay Area was never going to see prices fall, San Francisco was untouchable; in San Mateo, it was impossible; San Jose, not with all the tech money, blah, blah, blah. But prices at the peak relative to people’s incomes never made any sense.’”

“Even though it has little oil of its own, Dubai’s welcoming social and investment climate, along with special zones with independent laws, has turned it into a trading entrepôt on steroids, beyond Beirut in the 1970s and Hong Kong in the 1980s.”

“Economists warn of an unmanaged boom. But for Fares Noujaim, Merrill Lynch’s new president of the company’s business in the Middle East and North Africa, such concerns are for another day.”

“‘Bubble? What bubble?’ Mr. Noujaim asked, pressing his case that the global demand for oil, despite the recent dip in prices, would push its value even higher. ‘This will be the next Singapore or Hong Kong.’”

“The average price of square meter in the Russian capital crossed the line of $8,000, increasing within a week from July 7 to 13, by 1.0% to $ 8.068 per square meter. In Moscow Region, the prices in dollar grew by 1.2% (in ruble - by 1.3%), now an average supply price in the region is $3,400.”

“The market is showing no excessive activity, but, on the other side, it will be wrong to name the situation “calm” with a weekly increase of prices by 1.0% and the stably high demand, reports BPN.ru.”

“The Banque du Liban is considering requiring that borrowers and investors post the equivalent of 40 percent of the value of their approved property loans in a bid to prevent a real estate bubble, Governor Riad Salameh said on Thursday.”

“‘The prices of assets in general were undervalued until August 2007 but since that date we have seen an increase in the prices of real estate and property shares traded on the Beirut Stock Exchange,’ Salameh told The Daily Star in an exclusive interview.”

“Long-term figures have revealed the intensity of Whitehorse’s housing boom, with residential prices rocketing by more than 330 per cent in the past decade. Last year’s unprecedented rise capped the growth explosion, with the Valuer-General’s latest figures revealing the city’s median house prices jumped a further $106,750 in 2007.”

“Woodards Blackburn director Cameron Way said while the boom had eased this year, Whitehorse remained attractive to buyers. ‘Whitehorse has plateaued a fair bit, but that’s coming off 2007, which was a historic year of increase in value,’ Mr Way said.”

“On Whitehorse’s west, Surrey Hills and Mont Albert threaten to break through the $1 million bubble, with their 2007 median house prices at $995,500 and $961,000 respectively. Mr Way said Whitehorse remained a healthy market.”

“‘At the moment there are good opportunities for buyers and sellers because the market is back to more realistic levels,’ he said.”

“St. John’s is in the middle of a buying frenzy like never before, according to local realtors and a house price survey report released Thursday. Housing prices in St. John’s are generally up 23 per cent from this time last year, the report says.”

“Edwina Baldwin, president of the Newfoundland and Labrador Association of Realtors, says she works seven days a week. ‘There’s a lot of people looking for houses,’ Baldwin says. ‘Those people with children would probably like to get settled before the end of August, so that’s probably why it’s so much of a frenzy right now. Sometimes it cools down in the fall, but we have no indication that it is going to slow down at this moment.’”

“Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, said there has been a noticeable softening of the Canadian housing market over the past few months. ‘Some of that is coming in cities where prices had gone through the roof in the previous one or two years,’ he said. ‘So we have to take small retreats in some of those markets with a bit of a grain of salt.’”

“The savings bank called Indymac in California was overcome with roughly six billion dollars in bad loans. Loans they made for houses to people who could not afford them. The scandal has ruined millions of lives.”

“Texas is living under a protective bubble, however, and depositors here have nothing to fear.”

“John West, President & COO Community National Bank in Midland, said, ‘The housing industry in Texas is strong and good. So, I would not worry about a savings bank in Texas. I would worry about a savings bank in California or Florida.’”

“‘A lot of the homes that are being foreclosed are homes that were purchased on speculation by investors,’ said Gavin Gee, the director of the Idaho Department of Finance. ‘A lot of it is due to speculation. Speculators would come into a new subdivision and just buy up 10 homes, and maybe never even rent those homes, just hoping to cash in on the rapid rise in values.’”

“In Southhampton, the median price dropped 8.6 percent to $891,000. Sales volume fell 35 percent. In East Hampton, prices fell 11 percent to a median of $1,000,000, Suffolk Research said. Volume there fell 40 percent.”

“‘People are buying with their heads much more,’ said Diane Saatchi, a senior VP of New York-based brokers Corcoran Group. ‘Last year’s $2 million house is still this year’s $2 million house. The difference is this year nobody bought it.’”

“Just 231 residential building permits were pulled in the second quarter of 2008 in Shelby County, a 72 percent decline from Q2 2007, according to the latest figures. ‘Because of the large inventories that were built up during the incredible market levels of 2006, builders still had a great deal of inventory, and as they are reducing it they are not replacing it,’ said Doug Collins, president of the Memphis Area Home Builders Association.”

“Sales have fizzled on all fronts, and the frustration is evident when builders talk about the market. ‘Nobody can sell a house - that is the problem right now,’ said Charles Morgan, president of Vintage Homes.”

“Scandals are a lot easier to cover up with big words than little words. Use words like ‘Securitization,’ ‘Government Sponsored Enterprises’ and ‘Collateralized Debt Obligations’ and you can cast the liveliest conversation into dead silence. Look past that mind-numbing jargon and you will see a $5 trillion scandal.”

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were created to facilitate the market for mortgages. Uniquely charted by Congress, they were exempt for many years from the SEC’s disclosure requirements. Then they were caught keeping their books by their own rules, hiding $6.3 billion in losses.”

“House prices surged while abuses grew in securitized mortgage lending. All the while, they knew their friends in Congress would protect them.”

“In his farewell address, Dwight D. Eisenhower warned: ‘In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted.’”

“That worldly wise soldier understood the ties between defense contractors and their congressional allies. How much more must we today ‘guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence’ by this financial-industrial complex.”

“The humbuggers, rouges and con artists are swarming like dung beetles as the housing market hits the fan. Across the nation, home and condo values have fallen to the early 2005 levels. But there’s still a lot of groan and pain remaining as prices fall to the 1999-2000 levels at which the average might family might be able to afford a home.”

“Still household income and net worth are falling like tears from a tall camel’s eye, and mortgage defaults are soaring at record rates with no signs of abatement.”

“Delinquency rates are over 4 percent and headed higher, the number of existing homes for sale increased to 11.1 percent this year, new home sales are down 12.5 percent from 2007 and the supply of new homes is at a record high. So even if demand stabilizes today, the mountains of unsold new and old homes will continue to exert downward pressure on prices.”

“I don’t trust the two dudes who’ve asked you to become a $20,000 limited partner. Their perspective on the housing market parrots that of the idiot economists at the National Association of Realtors whose perpetually rosy observations makes the NAR look like a ship of fools. It’s said, ‘You can observe a lot by watching.’ But those clowns at NAR are either blind or have their eyes shut.”




RSS feed | Trackback URI

143 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-07-18 11:51:06

My thanks to those who support this blog! Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.

Comment by Chico Realtor
2008-07-18 16:54:49

The American dream of having a home is alive and well. I have been selling homes for the last 18 years and remember the 1989 housing bubble. The difference between then and now is in the 80s home owners had to have cash invested in the property, Therefore as home prices dropped home owners lived in the homes or took the loss.

In the 90s exotic loans allowed more and more buyers to enter the market but WITH NO MONEY INVESTED. Banks have created an entire generation of home owner that has no value in the property. This new type of home owner will not react to the threat of foreclosure and lenders have failed to understand that basic fact.

If lenders could stream line the short sale process and get out of the questionable loans without adding the expense of nonpayment, foreclosure, eviction, clean up, repair, and on and on….
I feel losses could be cut by 50%.

When it is time to sell a property fair market value is a realtor’s goal but again the foreclosing agencies have put all the eggs in one basket by using a small select group of realtors putting these properties on the market for the least price with no advertising or marketing. Bank sellers are some of the most abused property owners I have ever seen.

This plane crash was going to happen at some point but if it was better managed there would have been more survivors. As to having a home, 7 years from now most Americans will only dream of today’s home prices and a home is still the first best long term investment you can make in your family

Comment by Fidelus
2008-07-18 17:10:13

As to having a home, 7 years from now most Americans will only dream of today’s home prices and a home is still the first best long term investment you can make in your family>/i>

Just can’t help yourself can you? Statements like this leave no doubt that you have no credibility whatsoever.

Comment by QinQueens
2008-07-18 17:18:10

There ya’ go

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Karl
2008-07-18 18:58:58

If this guy said this two years ago, he would be an idiot, but he is correct now. Prices have fallen dramatically and you keep paying rent. Every month you wait to buy you are throwing money down the drain. We are far beyond the peak of the bubble.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by LARenter
2008-07-19 01:39:34

According to DataQuick single family housing prices are down 27% in June. That is 2.25% a month, at a median price of 425K that is $9500 loss a month. Talk about throwing money down the drain. At that price I can afford to rent a mansion and still come out ahead.
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lgb/apa/760826771.html

 
Comment by Will
2008-07-19 03:18:50

Wrong! He is still an idiot–he knows nothing about the business he claims to be in. If banks are getting ripped off in forclosure sales, every realtor in the country could buy the houses, advertise them “professionally”, and make a tidy profit. They obviously cannot or they would be selling more houses than the forclosure specialists. Today’s buyer is not interested in glossy advertising, but in prices he can afford. As long as renting is cheaper than buying, the money down the drain is from the buyer not the renter.

 
Comment by GH
2008-07-19 05:55:19

Every month you wait to buy you are throwing money down the drain.

Prices are still considerably out of my reach in San Diego. I am told the median income is around $60K and I make double that, which tells me the fundamentals are still comletely out of whack. Further at $400K even for a very ordinary house in a so so neighborhood, that still puts prices at 250x rents.

That and the simply fact prices are falling some $10,000 / mo around these parts make me seriously question this logic.

 
Comment by sartre
2008-07-19 08:52:51

Every month you wait to buy you are throwing money down the drain.
Here comes another idiot. Welcome to HBB. My rent has gone down 2% this year, while my friends just lost 10% of their “equity” last year (and 7% the year before). Infact their loss of equity would easily pay my rent for a year and send me to a couple of nice international vacations.

 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-18 19:42:47

Must be the instinct to screw the fellow person

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by QinQueens
2008-07-18 17:16:08

I can’t believe nobody responded to this.

Comment by mrincomestream
2008-07-18 19:44:14

I would but it would require a thesis…it’s Friday…I’ve been drinking …and well…what’s the point…there’s plenty of factual info here to contradict the nonsense…

If it’s any consolation…i will sputter this…I’m contiously embarrassed by those in the industry on a daily basis…the post above is no different…how’s that…?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mr. Fester
2008-07-19 15:05:21

Nicely put Mr. Income,
Embarrassing is the most charitable and fitting word for Dr. Chico.

 
 
 
Comment by buckwheat
2008-07-18 17:24:56

If you are going to stay in one location for 10+ years it may make sense, but for the modern american with NO job security renting is still and will continue to be a much more viable option.

I would rather put money into my kids college fund or ROTH IRA than get raped for closing costs, realtor fees, taxes, HOA’s, maintenance, and bank interest on a new home every few years. And thats considering you can even sell it.

Comment by denquiry
2008-07-19 04:01:47

I would rather put money into my kids college fund or ROTH IRA than get raped for closing costs, realtor fees, taxes, HOA’s, maintenance, and bank interest on a new home every few years. And thats considering you can even sell it.
———————————————————————–

AMEN, brutha.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-18 17:37:11

I agree with you that the RE agents are screwing the banks right now by not marketing the foreclosures right ,or even putting signs on them ,(if the banks only knew how badly they are marketing the foreclosures ).

it really is crazy that the banks are just using a few agents to list all the properties ,but how can the banks trust the people who brought them these creepy loan borrowers that committed all this fraud ,who always want 6% for every move they make .

But based on your point that the new modern borrower has no skin
in the game ,and they don’t care if they walk , why should the lenders give them any break at all if they are opportunist ,and no doubt also committed fraud on their loan application .Why should the lenders make any loans that the new age buyers don’t put 40% down ? In fact ,it will make the lenders do away with no recourse loans .

You say in so many words that in 7 years buyers will only dream
of the prices today .With the kind of damage your industry did ,I think it is more likely that it will take 15 to 20 years to even get some appreciation . More importantly ,in 7 years I want to see if America even survives the damage that was done by the greed and fraud of your industry .

Comment by GH
2008-07-18 21:12:45

Foreclosures on the ALT-A side will take a good 7 years to work out of the system, so I would put 7 yers closer to the bottom.

With regards to loans, the appraisal system is clearly broken. What a house recently sold for is not indicative of value. Banks need to look at fundamentals and loan that amount and no more. An enthusiastic buyer could then make up the difference with their own cash :-)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Ken Best
2008-07-18 17:44:02

Please tell us that you did stop buyers from buying into the ponzi, loan brokers from fraud, realtors from deceiving about “RE always goes up and you can always refinance”, and alerting everyone else about the bubble. Please, please …

 
Comment by LA Wallflower
2008-07-18 17:48:22

7 years from now there is a significant probability that most Americans will only be able to dream about living the kind of life that they’re living now.

If my grandfather was still alive, I’d have you email him and ask about what 1936 was like.

Of course, if you’re referring to the ratio of house price to income of potential buyer, you may be on to something!

 
Comment by exeter
2008-07-18 18:47:49

“7 years from now most Americans will only dream of today’s home prices”

I agree. And 10 years from now they’ll understand that they’ll never get a better price for their shack than they will right now.

I’m certain you don’t troll for a living. You’re too amateurish.

 
Comment by calex
2008-07-18 19:37:37

Chico realtor…You are SCUM, used car salesmen thank your kind for making them look better.

“When it is time to sell a property fair market value is a realtor’s goal ”

I call bull$hit on that one a$$hole. Your only goal is your cut.

“a home is still the first best long term investment you can make in your family”

HOW DARE YOU CLAIM TO BE AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

You are an IDIOT. A house keeps up with inflation at best UNLESS you buy it on the cheap and sell it to a greater fool during the next bubble.
AND don’t let that little thing called interest, taxes, insurance, and upkeep get in the way of keeping up with inflation. NOT TO mention your 6 percent for simply putting it in the MLS and unlocking the door when someone wants to see it.

The travel agents provided a much better service than you realtards at a much better price and look what happened to them.

 
Comment by walt526
2008-07-18 19:41:01

Who the hell would want to buy a property in Chico? Isn’t like a third of the population living below the poverty line? Other than Sierra Nevada Beer Company and the CSU, what jobs are available up there?

Although Chico would be a great site for a nuclear power planet, when California decides to get serious about solving long-term energy needs. Close to freshwater and nothing of value around there for hundreds of miles.

Comment by pismoclam
2008-07-18 20:42:00

Jobs in Chico: bouncer at the Graduate! Or, firefighter in local forest. Or , pot grower, Zanjero in local forest. hehehehehehe

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-18 20:12:31

Ben,

Wow twice in the same day. I love the smell of fresh meat in the air. :)

Comment by Real Estate Refugee
2008-07-18 23:17:40

Thanks for that. First good laugh I’ve had all day.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by bamboorod
2008-07-18 20:47:34

If you are from Chico, California, seven years from now people will still be buying houses at prices waaaaaay below the recent, insane highs of 2005-2006. In 2005 the median house price in Chico was around 9x median household income. Granted, this town was not overbuilt to the degree that Sacramento was, but you are drinkin’ the Kool-Aid if you think prices like those we have just seen will return anytime soon (unless we have an inflation rate equal to Zimbabwe!). If you have been around Chico since the 1980s, then you know that between 1991 and 1996 house prices dropped 30-35% in Chico. If affordability reverts to mean it will be much, much worse this time. If it were not for all the socal and bay area money rolling into town buying real estate the last seven years, Chico would be priced like Red Bluff! Both the bay and socal are catching a cold, baby. What do you think that means on the margins for this town?

Between 1996 and 2005 my house increased in value by almost 300%! Granted, my house was a peach and was on a prime piece of land. Still, how absurd! Thank goodness I had the good sense to sell in October of 2005. That was certainly a once in a lifetime opportunity. I know of several of your colleagues who are bag holders and wished they had sold, too.

And this town certainly suffers from the same ARM, HELO, over-leverage that has been so common in most of California. Those chickens are now coming home to roost. Explain to me if you would, in economic terms, what is going to drive prices up to those rarified heights again? An influx of tech jobs to Chico? Wages are going to skyrocket? In Chico?!? This town has the most over-educated, under-paid workforce in the nation! Yeah, I know, Chico is special. Are we going to run out of land!! Have you been paying any attention to the Planning Commission lately? They have approved a bunch of new developments in the last month. Even the liberals in this town can’t say no to the developers, because they are hoping with all their might for the revenue which follows development to offset the huge budget deficit which the city is facing in the coming years! As far as marketing foreclosures, what kind of lipstick do you think you and your colleagues can put on all those pigs? Don’t you think that if some paint, weeding, and an ad in the MLS or E-R would help, the previous owners would have went that route? The best thing for the housing market, and dare I say all of us, is for the price of housing to come down just as fast as possible without bringing about a complete economic collapse. Sorry for the rant folks, long time lurker first time poster. Had to get some of it out of my system!

 
 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-07-18 11:57:58

Hey Ben, Any interesting IP addresses logged lately?

 
Comment by dude
2008-07-18 12:03:56

http://dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx

Dataquick June numbers for zips in Socal are out.

 
Comment by Red Baron
2008-07-18 12:04:26

“What you see in Marin is an adjustment, not a depreciation,’ said Margaret Deedy, a broker in Greenbrae. ‘It’s a market where your houses are not appreciating. They’re basically holding level.’”

YOU FOOL! I track the Marin condo market weekly, and I can tell you that prices are collapsing, and not just in Novato. A very nice 2bed/2bath condo near me that sold for $505K in late 2005 just sold for $385K a month ago–a 24% drop in nominal terms in three years is not an “adjustment,” it is a free fall. This puppy will be selling for $250K four or five years from now when the depression hits bottom.

All these asshole Realtors (TM) care about is keeping their fat commissions selling used houses at inflated prices that have no relationship to rents or incomes.

Keep the popcorn popping,

Red Baron

Do the following to get through the depression: 1. Get and keep a job 2. Rent a place or live in an RV so you can be mobile for your job 3. Save at least 25% of your after-tax income 4. Eliminate debt unless you could pay it off if you lost your job.

Comment by az_lender
2008-07-18 15:01:59

And if you are under 40, save half of your gross income. (I did. Admittedly it’s harder now.)

Comment by zee_in_phx
2008-07-18 15:08:04

And pray tell where do i stash this loot. no, seriously, i would like some opinions on how to protect these dollars against inflation. thanks in advance.

Comment by VirginiaTechDan
2008-07-18 15:50:59

invest in capital assets that save you money and reduce your fixed monthly expenses. Solar power, energy efficient appliances, gardening, etc.

Once you stop defining your wealth in terms of dollars then life looks very different and storing “wealth” becomes much easier.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by IUnknown
2008-07-18 16:10:32

Gold, Silver ,Gold Mining stocks, precious metals, commodities, anything but dollars… hell, even open a bank account in another country. There’s also funds and ETFs that specialize in shorting the dollar, shorting the market, investing in gold mines, etc…

The mining stocks you’ll have to pay attention to, there is some timing involved… I’d study some about mining stocks, how they actually make profit (using leverage with rising gold values against falling dollar values), how to use them against inflation and during gold rallies, how to speculate, what is a good mine and what isn’t, etc… the dangers and pitfalls as well.

Gold and silver have been going up and up. I’d say its too late, but given that the Fed and the Treasury is now asking to completely bail out Fannie & Freddie… there’s still some more explosive up time for gold I’d suspect. Wonder what will happen when all these foreign investors start dumping dollars?

Plenty of places to put your savings to preserve wealth.. just know, that the government doesn’t like you doing it and will probably turn you into a criminal for doing so at some point.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-18 18:22:09

nah.. don’t be gambling and don’t try to get high returns or even to keep ahead of inflation.. Unless its some huge crapload of cash, just stash it in a coffee can..
Focus on employment and the ability to get through a short period of unemployment.

 
 
 
Comment by polarbare
2008-07-18 21:49:58

You have got to be kidding - since between federal income tax, medicare, and medicaid, I 45% of my gross income goes to the federal government. That does not leave me enough to pay rent, much less eating, car insurance, electricity - you know the things you kind of have to have.

Comment by JR
2008-07-20 19:12:09

Nonsense.

FICA + Medicare = 8% withheld from wages. (Another 8% contributed by employer; therefore total 16% if self-employed .)
Lowest FIT (other than zero) = 10%.

8 + 10 < 45.
16 + 10 < 45 (if self-employed)

If you pay 45% your income is very high. If you can’t afford rent and food your habits are extravagant.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by DinOR
2008-07-18 12:15:37

“Last year’s $2 million dollar house is still this year’s $2 million dollar house. The difference this year is nobody bought it”

Nor will anybody in the immediate future. Curious choice of words. I mean if nobody is buying ( or buying INto it ) what’s the point you’re making here again?

Comment by az_lender
2008-07-18 15:03:30

I thought it was a dark joke of the HBB sort. And the situation is the same in a lot of places — asking prices not dropping much, YET.

Comment by DinOR
2008-07-18 15:17:33

“dark joke of the HBB sort”

Well that’s what I couldn’t figure out either? Since uh, obviously this won’t be an FHA or VA loan were talking about a more sophisticated buyer, no? Well if the smart money is sitting on their wallets, what should that be telling the rest of us slubs?

 
 
Comment by zee_in_phx
2008-07-18 15:14:57

Patience is the word, my friend.
For the longest time (2006 thru 2007, it felt like an enternity) the housing median sale price held steady at around $260K for the PHX market, all the while the activity looked like it dropped off a clif. But finally the prices did start to come down, and last month they dropped below the $200K mark.
So even though a market may seem like its holding steady, the numbers to watch are the notice of defaults, foreclosures and sales activity.

got cash?

 
Comment by sfbayqt
2008-07-18 16:35:37

That $2 million dollar house quote was stupid. Period. But their feel-good move is to just take it off the market.

“THERE! I’ll fix you for not buying my $2 million dollar palatial estate. I’ll NOT entertain such a disrespectful offer of (fill in the blank with anything below $2 mil).”

BayQT~

Comment by EastBayRenter
2008-07-18 17:12:07

Yeah, we just had a small crap-box around the corner go up on the market for $1mil and it came down after a month. I guess there aren’t as many “greater fools” out there as there once were (or they just aren’t being given the money!). I just went to physical therapy today (had knee surgery at the beginning of the month) and my therapist was looking to buy! I told her the prices were still too high and got her email. I said I would send her links to sites she needs to visit (this being one)! I figure it takes a family income of about $300k to support these prices and then who’s going to give them a loan? I do not know many people who have $160k in cash to put down on an $800k house (lowest priced in my area) or make anywhere near $300k. People do have their parents, but this is CRAZY!! I unfortunately do not have access to RICH parents so I guess I will just have to rent and put my money away!

Comment by sfbayqt
2008-07-18 20:55:29

EastBayRenter said:
“I guess there aren’t as many “greater fools” out there as there once were (or they just aren’t being given the money!).”

I’d say both. And while we have Silicon Valley, the Googlers, Marin County, Palo Alto, etc., there are not nearly as many high salaried singles (or couples), trust fund babies or old money out there to hold up the entire East Bay. Sure, there are stories where a parent here and one there has put up a down payment for their Prince or Princess, but really…..as you said, there are not that many people who have that kind of money in the bank, let alone for a down payment. I found an article today from Dec. 2007 that said 52% of all Americans say they are not saving enough. And many have absolutely nothing saved.

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2007/12/savings_study.html

BayQT~

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by denquiry
2008-07-19 04:06:48

since govt think they have the right to rape/stiff you on property taxes that is reason enough for me not to buy a home. one always rents from the govt whether they buy or rent a home.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by friar john
2008-07-18 12:15:51

“‘People are buying with their heads much more,’ said Diane Saatchi, a senior VP of New York-based brokers Corcoran Group. ‘Last year’s $2 million house is still this year’s $2 million house. The difference is this year nobody bought it.’”

I think I’m scratching my head more with that statement of hers. I’m surprised she didn’t say last years’s $2 million house is this year’s $2.2 million house because as we all know, 10% appreciation every year is in the bag. Do these people have any business sense whatsoever? In what other business could you say crap like this and still show your face? Unbelievable.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-07-18 13:32:36

Makes me wonder where all those headless buyers went.

Comment by oskar
2008-07-18 13:37:02

Ichabod Crane, calling Ichabod Crane. Please come to the front desk and pick up your mortgage application.

Comment by DinOR
2008-07-18 14:18:21

LOL! Yeah like I say, curious choice of words. Even assuming it’s simply disinformation or intended to be distracting attention away from the obvious, you’d still think someone working for the largest realtor in NYC could conjure up something better than THAT?

Yet as Friar John notes, this passes for intelligence in Realtyworld.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Earl The Vagabond
2008-07-19 08:42:35

See? …And you guys said RE isn’t still going up… It used to just cost and arm and a leg… Now, nothing less than a head will do..

;)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by denquiry
2008-07-19 04:08:45

i betcha a lot of folks in the stock market were wishing that they would have made even money from 2007 to 2008/

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2008-07-18 12:19:33

Some great articles. Ben, thank you so much for being the wealth of information. The one quote was so right “Millions of lives were ruined”. This bubble has affected every fabric of the society. It is really the seed of why we have so much inflation and a tanking dollar.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2008-07-18 12:23:37

The articles said the Bay area was untouchable. It was at that time. I could see prices were out of line. We voted with our feet and left. I knew that the areas like Brentwood and Concord would fall. I said that before we left, and nobody believed me and I got a lot of crap at the time. Well, now time has shown me right and many of those that were giving me a hard time are probably upside down.

Comment by Giantaxe
2008-07-18 13:07:04

Time for my favorite bubble quote made back in ‘05:

“The East Bay is unique, it can be its own economic micro-climate,” said Christopher George, president of CMG Financial Services, a San Ramon-based firm that provides mortgages and other services.
“You have what are essentially new towns that have sprouted in the East Bay, like Brentwood,” George said. “You’ve got Mountain House. The East Bay will not see nearly as severe a downturn in housing.”

Comment by jbunniii
2008-07-18 15:50:21

“Mountain House” is a really stupid name for a town.

Comment by EastBayRenter
2008-07-18 17:17:05

This place is the Bay area PalmCaster… I’d NEVER live there!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by sfbayqt
2008-07-18 21:05:49

Would you say that Mountain House is similar to Reston, VA? I know that Reston is well estabished and a population of over 60k, but did it begin like Mountain House?

Is VABeyotch still on the board?

BayQT~

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by sfbayqt
2008-07-18 21:06:57

Well, I guess I should have asked if she is still on the “blog”.

BayQT~

 
 
 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-18 20:05:00

Is this kind of like the mirco climates the bay area has? ;)

 
 
Comment by EastBayRenter
2008-07-18 17:15:56

Who would want to live in Brentwood or Concord??? When will the nicer areas like Danville, Walnut Creek and Alamo become reasonable? Yeah, now the lowest priced 2,000 sq. ft. house is only $800k, but that’s still CRAZY! Plus when I look these houses up on Zillow it seems like EVERYONE has taken at least $100k out of their houses!!

Comment by neon kitty lips
2008-07-18 21:13:56

I live in Concord. I like Concord. I can shop anywhere from Tiffany’s to KMart. Kids went to a high-achieving Walnut Creek school and I didn’t have to pay Walnut Creek prices. Walnut Creek is full of plastic snobby fluffy buffys. In Concord I don’t have to pretend to be wealthy enough to live in WC. Health care is great in this area. It does take me 20 min to get to the freeway, tho. Luckily, I live 5 miles from work and take surface streets. Of course, there is the hispanic presence in certain areas….but there are some great restaurants, and nice farmer’s market.

Comment by JR
2008-07-20 19:31:25

Very sad to hear that you have to put up with Hispanics. Hope they don’t mind putting up with you.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Joe
2008-07-18 19:03:44

Us too - we finally just got fed up with all the BS and left the Bay Area. Got tired of trying to talk sense into idiot friends who were “getting into the real estate game”. You can only take so much of “it’s special here” before you roll your eyes one too many times and just have to walk away.

Ever since we left, we’ve gotten more than a few calls from people who realize their mistakes and are now upside down, but are amazingly convinced that things will rebound soon.

Right.

 
 
Comment by wacko
2008-07-18 12:32:30

When I read the blurb about Whitehorse, I was asking myself how the heck there could be million-dollar houses in the Yukon. Then I checked out the article and found it was a suburban area in Australia. *laughs*

Comment by kpom
2008-07-18 14:10:02

I thought it was the Yukon too - but it would make sense there would be million-dollar houses in the Yukon - after all, they aren’t making any more land there…

 
Comment by Steve
2008-07-18 14:12:03

My brother lives up in the Yukon and believe it or not, there actually are million dollar houses there. It’s a pretty nice area but not worth a million dollars. I keep telling him not to buy yet but I can tell he’s getting an itchy trigger finger…

Comment by jbunniii
2008-07-18 15:52:45

A few years ago the natural question would have been “but how much is that in REAL dollars?” Now the Canadian dollar IS the real one.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2008-07-18 12:33:34

The lack of logic is staggering.

“Foreclosure properties accounted for 10.2 percent of Marin’s market. Big price drops are more an indication of the growing foreclosure problem than true market value, according to Corina Rollins, who has taught real estate at the College of Marin for more than 20 years.”

It’s why that idiot is in academia and not in business. Foreclosures are a problem because PRICES ARE TOO HIGH. People borrowed too much to pay too much because the banks would let them. Once the foreclosures have been cleared out, volumes will stay low and price increases non-existent until incomes are more in line with prices.

Prices will have to fall. In places without lots of new building (less inventory), this will be a long, drawn out process (Marin County). In places with lots of growth (more inventory), this will be/has been a fast crash to more realistic prices (San Joaquin County).

Comment by DinOR
2008-07-18 12:49:13

Rental Watch,

Excellent observation. You wouldn’t believe how much I’ve watched otherwise intelligent people torment themselves over that simple concept. ( Myself included ) So based on that, the more stable your market has performed thus far, the less the urgency to buy, right?

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2008-07-18 14:10:12

Hmm. I would guess–now this is just a guess–that far more of those who are in trouble in real estate now were in business than in academia. So, what’s with the scholar-bashing? At least most scholars know enough to figure things out for themselves rather than sign on the dotted line because someone wearing a suit tells them to do so.

In business and in academia you gots your good and smart, your good and dumb, your bad and dumb, and your bad and smart. I try to hang out with the first group, and protect myself from the harm that follows the others.

IAT

Comment by polly
2008-07-18 15:49:04

Don’t under estimate the damage that can be done by the middle two groups.

 
 
Comment by Tom Stone
2008-07-18 19:24:29

I know corina rollins,she is an extremely sharp lady and a highly competent and honest appraiser.I would like to see the reporters article before the editor got ahold of it.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-18 12:37:44

“The median price dropped 26 percent to $410,000 in June from $470,000 in May. ‘What you see in Marin is an adjustment, not a depreciation,’ said Margaret Deedy, a broker in Greenbrae. ‘It’s a market where your houses are not appreciating. They’re basically holding level.’”

A one month 26 percent drop occurs at an annualized rate of
((1-0.26)^12-1)*100 = 97.3 percent. I am wondering how fast the prices would have to fall for that broker to discern that the prices basically are not holding level.

Comment by SaladSD
2008-07-18 12:51:07

As Thornberg so eloquently opined, “blah, blah, blah”.

Comment by Lisa
2008-07-18 13:11:03

“As Thornberg so eloquently opined, “blah, blah, blah”.

I loved that quote in today’s SF Chronicle. And the article was front page with a bold, screaming headline “Bay Area Home Prices Plunge 27%”.

Once the sheeple digest the fact that it CAN happen here, and it IS happening here, I think we’re on the way to the panic stage in the BA. The amount of debt & leverage here is mindboggling.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-07-18 13:33:48

Where’s the Plunge Protection Team when ya need it?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-18 18:43:38

Trying to pump Fannie. But that won’t help much unless they can legislate a reversion to some loose (pre-2005 style) lending standards (Dodd and Frank, take note!!!).

 
Comment by DaveBro in SonomaCo
2008-07-18 23:07:22

“Trying to pump Fannie.”

 
Comment by DaveBro in SonomaCo
2008-07-18 23:08:40

“Trying to pump Fannie.”
snort

 
Comment by denquiry
2008-07-19 04:12:26

“Trying to pump Fannie.”
————————————————-
are we “pumpin and dumpin” here?

 
 
Comment by Bloz
2008-07-18 19:35:33

The Bay Area hasn’t even reached the Anger and Bargaining stage yet.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2008-07-18 20:06:48

Oh yes it has.

Take a closer look at the cracks in the foundation. You will just have to look deeper.

 
Comment by desertdweller
2008-07-18 20:58:47

Dig deeper? Nah, show me big wide open cracks.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Schmendrick
2008-07-18 13:33:19

“The median price dropped 26 percent to $410,000 in June from $470,000 in May.”

(470k-410k)/470k = -13 per cent. Which still works out to an annualized rate of an 80 per cent decline. That is a heck of an “adjustment”.

The error is in the original article, not in the Professor’s math.

 
Comment by Ed BearEd
2008-07-18 13:41:50

Well at least that $60K was adjusted, not depreciated. That’s a relief.

 
 
Comment by ragerunner
2008-07-18 12:38:52

“Marin’s condominium market matched Bay Area trends. The median price dropped 26 percent to $410,000 in June from $470,000 in May. ‘What you see in Marin is an adjustment, not a depreciation,’ said Margaret Deedy, a broker in Greenbrae. ‘It’s a market where your houses are not appreciating. They’re basically holding level.’”

Even though I have been reading this blog for some time, I am still amazed at how dishonest a lot of the RE industry really is and how stupid.

Comment by ChrisO
2008-07-18 13:35:59

Yeah, you’d think that Marin County would attract a higher class of nitwit, but alas…

 
Comment by Karen
2008-07-18 14:27:34

Well, you could argue that she’s right about it not depreciating, if you want to make a case for the fact that the house was never worth close to half a million in the first place.

Though there is that bit about the home prices holding level that’s outright deceptive, since even with prices coming down they have come down most haven’t even come near reasonable.

Comment by SDGreg
2008-07-18 17:22:29

“Marin’s condominium market matched Bay Area trends. The median price dropped 26 percent to $410,000 in June from $470,000 in May. ‘What you see in Marin is an adjustment, not a depreciation,’ said Margaret Deedy, a broker in Greenbrae. ‘It’s a market where your houses are not appreciating. They’re basically holding level.’”

Since we seem to be left only with tortured logic to justify statements like these, if prices are falling in line with the falling dollar, are they “holding level”? Never mind that the dollar wasn’t appreciating when prices were surging a few years ago.

I wonder if her income is “holding level”? What? It’s down 50 percent. But at least it’s an “adjustment” and not a “depreciation”.
Maybe it’s “holding level” with her true value.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-18 12:39:33

Bay Area median price dives below $500K; sales near record low
July 17, 2008


“Once again the quest for a bargain kept Bay Area home sales out of record-low territory,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. “So far it’s been mostly the inland areas where prices have dropped enough to rejuvenate sales. Our latest stats might be signaling greater price reductions on the coast, where sales have been severely restrained by several factors: higher prices, tighter lending guidelines, inadequate liquidity for jumbo mortgages and depreciation in inland areas that’s left homeowners there with less equity with which to purchase a home on the coast.”

Before the credit crunch hit last August, jumbo mortgages (over $417,000) made up nearly 65 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans. In June they accounted for 28.8 percent, up from 28.4 percent in May.

Comment by walt526
2008-07-18 19:51:30

Isn’t the definition of jumbo now quite a bit higher than $417k, like ~$700k? Congress raised the conforming limit earlier this year in coastal areas.

 
Comment by Ken Best
2008-07-18 20:06:05

Saw some signs of movement in San Jose: peak price 600K, current list price 400K.

And the big quake is still lurking.

Comment by desertdweller
2008-07-18 21:01:34

So IF the big one comes to CA, run over to an empty deserted house and help push it over?
Everybody, altogether now, pusssssssssssh.
Then we can start all over again. Just wondering!

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-18 12:41:10

“Protective Bubble” might not have been the best choice of words…

ha

“Texas is living under a protective bubble, however, and depositors here have nothing to fear.”

“John West, President & COO Community National Bank in Midland, said, ‘The housing industry in Texas is strong and good. So, I would not worry about a savings bank in Texas. I would worry about a savings bank in California or Florida.’”

Comment by SaladSD
2008-07-18 13:31:35

Go figure, Texas has it’s own brand of prophylactic.

 
Comment by mikey
2008-07-18 13:35:16

“Texas is living under a protective bubble, however, and depositors here have nothing to fear.”

That protective bubble that Texas THINKS it is living under is a giant CONDOM and somebody is gonna get $crewed :)

 
Comment by Skip
2008-07-18 15:01:18

Hardly any Texas banks survived the real estate crash of the 80’s.

The few local banks he is talking about must be relatively new to the scene, all the more reason to worry.

 
 
Comment by flint 'burbs
2008-07-18 12:54:26

Eisenhower had seen the results of how the European countries had reacted to their stressful times, so he was trying to warn us statesiders how some will sell out when the opportunity presents itself. (Remember the space-invader films where the human betrayer always gets eaten alive before the humans win out?)

Our older-than-baby-boomers had an easier time making their profits because there were fewer competitors for the jobs after the War. I just attended a cousin’s 50th Wedding Anniversary last weekend, and photos of the varnished log vacation cabin, collector cars (a fleet of them), and the long-term homestead let me know how lucky that generation was! There are still baby boomers that never found a niche until Clinton’s presidency and some Vietnam vets were NEVER right again.
There were 35 kids in my elementary grades and I don’t think we were cheated - I got a monetary Scholarship even though my dad made too much to qualify for the “need” and I was an only child. Of course, if the principal called, only the adult version of the story was believed - not like today. (That’s probably why the priests got away with what they did!) The teachers AND the kids seem spoiled today - a bad situation for the challenges that are hatching!

 
Comment by ChrisO
2008-07-18 13:39:17

“‘Right now, I’d say a Brentwood four-bedroom, two-bathroom with 2,600 square feet that was $650,000 a couple of years ago can easily be had for $325,000 and below,’ Kieffer said. ‘In Concord, three-bedroom ranch homes that were selling for $500,000; you can get those post-foreclosure for $225,000 or $250,000.’”

A 50 percent haircut already, and the carnival ride’s not even nearly over yet. Wow.

Comment by Joe
2008-07-18 19:06:46

Oh dude, have you ever BEEN to Brentwood? I’d rather live in Stockton before I moved to Brentwood.

Comment by sfbayqt
2008-07-18 21:44:31

I liked Brentwood when it was full of farms and produce stands. I used to take my kids out there all the time to the pick’em-yourself farms and load up on fresh fruits and veggies. (that was a LONG time ago…my kids are now 30 and 23) A lot of those places disappeared with the housing boom and the HUGE growth that Brentwood experienced. Now it’s a big mess. According to Wikipedia, 1/16th of all households defaulted on their home loans. There are 12,470 households. (see OnBoard Neighborhood Navigator)

BayQT~

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-18 13:50:38

If the powers are so concerned about people ,why don’t they make a
new law that Corporations have to raise wages by at least the amount of real inflation registered . Aren’t the lawmakers making new laws to protect this group and that group . What about the poor wage earner who can’t keep up with inflation . Aren’t the poor wage earners pleads as important as the FB’s pleads or Wall Street pleads that they need relief. .While Corporations can offset price increases by raising prices ,wage earners have no recourse with inflation if they can’t get wage increases .Hey the powers don’t care who they hurt when they pass these emergency laws or maintain dollar destroying policy . Why not let the Corporation feel the sting of the lawmakers swords .

Instead of these policy makers dreaming about the day that the real estate industry will support the economy of American like it did during the boom ,they should just realize that it ain’t going to happen .Once it becomes apparent that Americans need jobs and the real estate industry
isn’t going to provide those jobs ,than the question will become ,where are the jobs?

Comment by az_lender
2008-07-18 15:08:53

Regardless of who are the employers and how they shuffle money around, I believe US citizens collectively consume more than they produce. This is not the fault of Corporations, and there is nothing that a minimum-wage law can do to “fix” it. In the future, we will simply consume less. Good luck to all of us, getting used to it.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-18 16:03:12

The point is that the American way is to have live-able wages that keep up with inflation . How many more benefits does Corporate America get . They don’t pay benefits anymore ,they don’t increase wages anymore ,they don’t want to pay for health care for their employees anymore ,they out-source a lot of jobs to keep cost down ,they have the ability to raise prices every time they get increases in
costs ,they still charge big prices for low cost slave labor products . Corporate America benefited quite a bit by the buying that took place
during the boom .People want to know where a lot of the bubble money went .

If Americans need to get more productive to actually earn the money
they get ,that one thing ,but Americans can’t compete with other countries super low wage structures and lack of protections for the employees . And who said that Americans should have to compete with this world -wide labor force . We can change things and go back to
producing ourselves . The point is that we cannot exist on simply making investments or selling real estate to each other . If Corporations offer no opportunities for Americans to be producers ,it will not happen . So currently you have main stream American
paying for this housing crash and in addition they are being set up to be straddled with tax increases to pay for this stupid bail-out
of the financial sector of Corporate America. This issue is going to get really heated once thousands of people are roaming around without any opportunity for work .

Comment by desertdweller
2008-07-18 21:08:36

And the corporations and wealthy, see UBS and LIthuania, all get to Hide their incomes from Uncle Sam so they don’t pay taxes on incomes.

It is not the “fault” that Americans buy so much stuff,as it is a virulant catch-22. You have Madison avenue, government, media/commercials, celebrities, tv shows, movies, to many to mention, avenues that persuade Americans to buy stuff, Go places, George immediately after 9/11 telling Americans to “GO SHOPPING”.
So, what is it, all the fault of Americans? No, it is this pervasive culture.
You don’t see this in europe/Latin America or Asia.
To a very small degree it is ramping up,but they don’t spend all the time watching tv as we do.
Blah blah blah.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by VirginiaTechDan
2008-07-18 16:02:23

Minimum wage is nothing but price fixing. It will cause shortages and rationing. Instead of 10 people making $2/hr you now have 2 people making $10/hr…. more money doesn’t come from “nothing” unless you are the government or a bank.

A trade that would improve the situation of two people at $2, when banned due to minimum wage, causes person A to lose out on the service of person B and person B to lose out on the money from person A.

Comment by Wickedheart
2008-07-18 17:21:22

That’s cr@p.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-18 18:32:19

i can tell you what happened in san francisco.. they raised minimum wage and who got the raises? People who make tips, like waiters and bartenders.. the people who were being paid minimum wage, but were making big dollars.. more than anyone else, at the end of the day.

Cooks, cleaning, dishwashers.. the lowest wage (but above minimum) people didn’t get a penny extra.

Wage and price fixing has always failed.. always will.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Itsabouttime
2008-07-18 20:06:07

Tell that Bill Gates and Mickeysoft.

IAT

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-18 22:14:38

i have no problem with a company fixing it’s prices for it’s own products or fixing it’s own wages.
If the price is too high or the wage too low, consumers or employees can shop or work elsewhere.

As to MS’s perceived monopoly on the OS business, there certainly are alternatives.. but the fact is Windows is what a majority of people want, and it’s what they choose to buy and use.
In 50 years everyone will see that Windows was a very primative OS. Which of the geeky kids now running around will create it’s successor?

 
Comment by JR
2008-07-20 20:03:23

Anyone who has actually hired in a minimm-wage environment knows that changes in the minimum wage have no effect whatsoever on employment, unless they spur investment in labor-saving technology.

Whether the extra worker costs $4.00 per hour or $7.00 per hour, you only hire if it’s necessary. And if it’s necessary, you hire regardless of price. The alternative is to invest in efficiency, reducing the actual need for labor. No-one hires an extra person for no reason, and if the skills are low they pay as little as possible. So, in the short term, increasing minimum wage makes absolutely no difference in employment or hours worked.

 
Comment by PridgNYC
2008-07-21 12:40:42

Uh, people that earn tips are exempt from the minimum wage requirement and typically only get a few dollars an hour. The rest of their income comes from tips which are reported to the government on their W2 at the rate of 8% of receipts. (regardless of whether they actually got an 8% tip) If they average more than 8% per check in tips, it is essentially tax free. Although they are supposed to voluntarily report those earnings. So, no, bartenders and wait staff did not benefit from the minimum wage increase. (unless they also increased the minimum wage for these types of employees) (?)

 
 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-07-18 18:37:15

So, you mean to say you’re happy with your $10/hour job? Or is this a completely esoteric argument cuz you’re a tech guy?

Comment by exeter
2008-07-18 18:58:34

Isn’t it interesting that economic activity GREW in states that boosted their minimum wages above the federal mandate.

Of course those who view the average Joe with contempt will stand by their failed ideology….. at their own peril.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by desertdweller
2008-07-18 21:10:29

Yep, Idaho actually had their businesses grow after they increased minimum wage, contrary to what the PTB wants and wanted Americans to believe.

 
 
Comment by VirginiaTechDan
2008-07-18 19:32:50

If someone offered to cut down a dead tree in my front yard for $3/hr then I would take them up on it; however, if he said I had to pay $7/hr I would say forget it, I need the other $4 to feed my family. So he has a choice, take the $3 or take $0. If he feels that $3 is worth is time (and that he would be better of with it than his time) then he has improved his situation. Likewise, if I would rather have a tree cut down than $3 in my pocket then I have improved my situation.

Enter government… “ah, sir, you cannot pay him $3/hr because we feel that it would ‘hurt his feelings’ or would ‘undervalue’ his time”. The government then says… “his time is worth at least $7/hr so take it or leave it.”

At the end of the day the government has harmed both individuals who felt they were improving their well being by the trade.

I know you are just concerned about “big bad industry” not offering more money… but industry doesn’t “owe” anyone anything and they have to offer enough money to make it worth someone’s time to do the work. Supply and demand will drive wages higher. If someone doesn’t pay enough then go into business yourself.

The only way for industry to keep labor prices down is via a monopoly that is only enforceable via government regulation….

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by desertdweller
2008-07-18 21:11:42

I see, it is all about the corporate bottom line.
Who gives a if people working at corps work for free.

 
Comment by GH
2008-07-18 21:23:35

Bottom line - don’t trade dollars for hours. It is and historically has been a bad deal all around. In case anyone has been paying attention, the value of a days labor set on the world market is around $2 - $5 depending on your country. Only in the western countries is this set higher through govt regs, but the loophole is to have the work done overseas and then bring it over the border. We will not survie as a “work ethic” society.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-18 23:18:52

Bottom line is that Corporate America is selling everyone a line of s-it . What if Corporate America said ,”I think I should only give you one dollar a hour for your labor because in China they will work for 50 cents a hours ,so you see, I’m giving you a deal ,take it or leave it .” Now you as a American worker would say , “But I live in America and the costs associated with living in America demand that I make more than that to be able to even
turn on my utilities monthly ,or pay for the high health care costs in this Country ,or food .” So Coporate America says, “Well,
I guess I would rather hired the guy in China that will work for 50 cents a hour “. “So than the American Worker says ,” But a person in China has different living expenses than a person in America ,and I wasn’t born in China ,so why do I give a rats ass
what they do over there ,(what ,do you want me to eat rice to) and besides don’t you want to give Americans fair wage jobs and in turn they will spend money on your products and stimulate the economy here ?” So Corporate America says ,”Nope the bottom line is how much profit we can make because there is a emerging world out there ,and the labor costs go to the lowest bidder .” Of course we expect that Americans will buy a lot of our products because they are the big spenders ,even if they go into debt .”

So, the point is wages get out of sink with the price of the cost of living in America ,and people are reduced to such a sub-standard existence that the middle class is eroded and than you only got the rich and the poor .

I’m not saying that the American workers shouldn’t put in a good days work to earn their bread ,but if the bread is crumbs ,while the Corporations take more than a reasonable piece of the chunk ,than we are back-tracking to the conditions that America was in before reasonable wages and working conditions produced a strong middle class and a strong America .

 
Comment by denquiry
2008-07-19 04:22:59

”Nope the bottom line is how much profit we can make because there is a emerging world out there ,and the labor costs go to the lowest bidder .
—————————————————————–
well, let’s see here. I guess that the chinese made based heparin and the lead coated child toys were made by the lowest bidder. and our troops in Afghanistan/Iraq are wearing body armor and using equipment made by the lowest bidders. Ya know, communism ain’t startin to look so bad now.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-19 11:35:22

But thats just the point . Costs should not just be based on the lowest bidder . The Corporations are trying to get the best of both worlds . They want the Americans to spend spend spend ,but they don’t want to give the Americans the decent wages so they can spend spend spend ,because they make more money by
going for the lowest bidders in other countries .

I’m not attacking capitalism ,because that is the most productive economic system there is . But any economic structure is a closed system whereby you can’t go outside for your labor costs ,yet expect Americans to afford the higher costs charged with American costs .

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-18 14:49:19

“Things got worse and worse. Finally there came the awful day of reckoning for the bulls and the optimists and the wishful thinkers and all those vast hordes that, dreading the pain of a small loss at the beginning, were now about to suffer total amputation-without anaesthetics. A day I shall never forget, October 24, 1907.’

Jesse Livermore

Comment by combotechie
2008-07-18 15:15:43

That was the day the stock market ran out of money.

Comment by combotechie
2008-07-18 15:21:30

That was the day when cash was truly king.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-07-18 16:44:30

That was the day stocks fell apart, as in no liquidity.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-18 18:13:10

Damn aladinsane ,you always find great material and quotes.

 
Comment by combotechie
2008-07-18 19:11:29

That was the day J.P Morgan had to send representatives to the exchange floor to pledge that money would be made available for trading.

That was the day that triggered interest in forming the Federal Reserve System.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-18 23:25:38

Well ,at least the “fat cats” of that period who had amassed the money knew they had to put some of it back because they had
fleeced the public to much .

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-07-18 14:50:05

It’s called INFLATION and it makes no difference which part of this blue marble you live on.

“The causes of inflation are not, as often said, ‘multiple and complex,” but simply the result of printing too much money.” ~Henry Hazlitt

“The average price of square meter in the Russian capital crossed the line of $8,000, increasing within a week from July 7 to 13, by 1.0% to $ 8.068 per square meter. In Moscow Region, the prices in dollar grew by 1.2% (in ruble - by 1.3%), now an average supply price in the region is $3,400.”

 
Comment by Civil Servant
2008-07-18 15:21:16

Can anyone in the SF area explain to me what seems an odd stat in the first linked article? I’m in Seattle. Across all categories, the only one that shows growth is SF condos/townhouses, up 1.4% YOY and now at $788K median vs. $770 for SF SFHs. What gives? Are your townhouses nicer and older and significantly better built than is the stock up here (almost all built within the last 5 years or so), worthy of price growth even in a severe downturn? And is the reason that the condo median is higher than that for SFH due to SF’s much higher density than in Seattle — i.e., if you want to live in the city, it’s a condo/townhouse you’re necessarily looking at? Thanks for any intel.

Comment by IUnknown
2008-07-18 17:06:40

An answer with a question:

When you think of San Francisco, do you think of a logical, rational people founded on a sound set of capitalistic principles?

Comment by sf jack
2008-07-18 18:23:49

LOL!!

Hilarious!

 
Comment by Mole Man
2008-07-18 19:43:38

Logic and rationality can be outsourced too.

 
 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2008-07-18 16:06:08

Mountain House is a stupid name for a new city that has been built on ugly scrub land and nowhere near any mountain. To me, Mt. Diablo is just a big hill. Be near some real mountains, Sandias east of Albuquerque and what I see, Sierra Nevadas, entire Rocky Mountains. These are real mountains, where they rise really high from the outlying land.

 
Comment by dude
2008-07-18 16:12:46

California’s unemployment rate rises to 6.9% in June

The rate rises a tenth of a percentage point from May to a nearly five-year high. The jobless rate in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area rises to 7% from 5% a year earlier.

Looks like the bottom is in baby!

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-caljobs19-2008jul19,0,6469603.story

 
Comment by lavi d
2008-07-18 16:17:52

With the price of crude oil dropping precipitously in the last two days, one question is on everyone’s lips:

“Will the government step in and prop up the price of oil in order to ease the pain of refiners who bought at the peak?”

Film at 11.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-18 16:23:03

Still household income and net worth are falling like tears from a tall camel’s eye..

gee.. almost poetic.. let me try.

The RE market falls like a turd from a camel’s butt, and will have a similar rebound. Buy now if you want to get humped.

 
Comment by Civil Servant
2008-07-18 16:26:37

Can someone in the SF area explain an odd stat to me? (I’m in Seattle.) In the first linked article, the only price growth in any category is for SF condos/townhouses, up 1.4% YOY to a median that now exceeds that of SFHs. Is it the case that prices have not taken a hit, or are people who would have bought condos in the city now buying nicer or larger ones for what they would have spent anyway? Where are the SFHs for sale in SF, in what parts of the city? The condo/townhouse median being higher than that of the SFH puzzles me, but then again Seatle is a different beast than San Francisco. Any information or context appreciated.

Comment by joeyinCalif
2008-07-18 16:41:45

Median price is deceiving..
Median selling price will be pushed upwards if there are zero sales of condos/townhouses below the current median sales price, and just a single sale for some amount above that price.

It has often been the case in the last couple years that lower priced properties are not selling, while the higher priced ones are. This drives median price up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_pricing

 
 
Comment by Civil Servant
2008-07-18 16:28:24

Argh, sorry. First one took forever to show up on the page. Newbie, won’t make that mistake again.

 
Comment by EastBayRenter
2008-07-18 16:38:22

Hi All Bay Area Bloggers!!

There is going to be a get together on Saturday, July 26th - 3pm at the 3rd Ave Sports Bar and Grill in San Mateo. We will be gather to air our feelings regarding the current housing environment and how our “government” is going to save us!! We are also going to be planning some fun outings in the Bay area. It’s going to be GREAT fun!! Please feel free to email me at - bayareabubble@gmail.com if you’d like to attend or have any questions.

Comment by EastBayRenter
2008-07-18 17:02:57

This is a link to some reviews of the bar: http://www.yelp.com/biz/third-avenue-sports-bar-and-grill-san-mateo

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-18 18:45:14

Tornado Warning

Leaders
Banks and markets
Twin twisters

Jul 17th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The financial crisis claims another two victims—and once again the taxpayer picks up the pieces

Comment by vozworth
2008-07-18 21:26:12

from the article, “…. why monetary policy should lean against rising asset prices.”

PB, I would ask you. If you had an asset that was rising in price, through whatever mechanism…would you want it capped?

You want the long bonds capped? OR as a saver, would you prefer to get paid?

You cant have it both ways. You post a lot, and I am wondering why you, as a give a shitter, did not participate in the meltup on the financials, when the masses as a whole were in full capitulation. Are you not paying attention when chick was shorting SKF and it had the blow off top?

trust your gut, you are a smart young man. Risk is for the young, and the safety is for the old….bubbles wont be capped they solve themselves.

one more bubble.. for the x-gens. What it is, I cant say at this juncture, but its coming.

 
 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post