July 30, 2008

Bits Bucket For July 30, 2008

Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.




RSS feed | Trackback URI

303 Comments »

Comment by bizarroworld
2008-07-30 04:21:39

‘Extreme Makeover’ Home in Foreclosure

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/the-home-front/2008/7/29/extreme-makeover-home-in-foreclosure.html

July 29, 2008 11:40 AM ET | Luke Mullins

Things couldn’t look better three years ago for Milton and Patricia Harper of Lake City, who giddily accepted the keys to a small castle, plus enough money to pay taxes on it for 25 years.

Now, the Clayton County house that “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” built is a two-story, turreted example of how things can go wrong. It’s in foreclosure.

The Harpers used the house at 5489 Ahyoka Drive as collateral for a $450,000 loan, Clayton County mortgage records show. Records at the law firm handling foreclosures for the lender, JPMorgan Chase Bank, say it is in foreclosure. The four-bedroom house with decorative rock walls and a three-car garage is scheduled for auction on the Clayton County Courthouse steps Aug. 5.

The Harpers, who declined interview requests when reporters knocked on their door Friday, told WSB-TV they got the loan for a construction business that failed.

Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 04:56:52

This drama sums up the stupidity of our country circa 2001-2008.

 
Comment by samk
2008-07-30 05:02:23

Found this comment at http://www.wsbtv.com/news/16980412/detail.html :

““What’s going to happen is instead of keep paying my mortgage, I’m going to take my money and not pay my mortgage because I’m being harassed,” said Harper.”

Poor, poor, woman.

Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 13:44:20

Harper said that if Channel 2 wanted proof the foreclosure is off, we should show up at the courthouse next month to watch it not happen.

lol.

Well, if there was any doubt, it was eliminated right then. There will certainly be a foreclosure next month.

 
 
Comment by cynicalgirl
2008-07-30 05:07:43

Of course a new construction business is going to fail in this market!

I look forward to the day when my house is paid off and I no longer have to make mortgage payments. It’s beyond me how someone could throw that away. They got a free house and the first thing they did was borrow on it! That’s so America!

Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-30 05:33:25

You’ve got that right. People who don’t work for things don’t appreciate them.

Take oil, for example, which is just lying under someone else’s desert. We thought it was “free.”

That’s why it was imperative to make people sweat the downpayment.

Comment by bottomfisherman
2008-07-30 08:27:41

Maybe the Harpers took the ‘free’ 450K and ran. The ‘failed construction business’ is probably just a front.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by reuven
2008-07-30 19:14:18

They’ll get $450K tax free. I have to earn nearly a million dollars to get to keep $450K.

 
 
Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-07-30 05:38:51

I know of one family directly that blew their lottery winnings and then filed bankruptcy within 1 year of receiving their lump sum winnings.

I know of close to 10 medium-sized businesses where the inheriting kids lost everything within 3 years of the death of the previous owner.

My father bought me my first car when I was 16. I’m not sure I ever changed the oil or anything; it was dead in a year.

I gave a close friend a loan many years ago and they’re not my friend anymore.

Here’s a hint: getting something for nothing more often than not leaves one with nothing due to poor responsibility.

And people think welfare can ever work?

Comment by Blue Skye
2008-07-30 06:03:36

My father gave me my first car at age 16 too. It was a broken down ‘60 chevy worth less than $100. He said that if I could figure out how to fix it I’d have something to drive. I learned a lot about cars that year.

Comment by InMontana
2008-07-30 09:04:14

I bought my first car from my mother for $250 and still trashed it. Hell I didn’t know about that oil thing - the stepdad just took it away somewhere whenever I was in town to have it “serviced.” No idea what that was. LOL

It was my SIL who took me aside and explained what you do. I took real good care of cars after that.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Skip
2008-07-30 10:51:35

My father gave me my first car at 16 also(a 10 year old car he bought used that only had 1/2 the paint on it and the headliner dropped on your head). However, I knew that if anything happened to that car I would be walking again. I kept that car for 6 years and replaced damn near everything but the transmission and engine. No retail outlets either - many visits to the junkyard to save money.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by ozajh
2008-07-30 06:09:22

So, by the same logic, you would support very high inheritance taxes?

Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 06:19:28

? How do you draw that conclusion?

People say the strangest things…

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by MightyMike
2008-07-30 07:26:30

The idea would be that receiving a a large inheritance is just like winning the lottery, or receiving a massive welfare check. It’s money that is received by people who don’t work for it. Ozajh is making a good point. If welfare is believed to harm people by making them lazy, than inheritance would do the same thing.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 07:38:34

Well, I’m not sure Dada’s point above was that welfare harms people (but there is a strong argument for that), only that the recipients of free stuff tend not to manage it well.

But anyway, how does a tax rectify that? In some cases, inheritance may go to people who don’t respect it at all, but in other cases it may go to people who do. E.g. I have a friend who has worked on his family farm literally since he was old enough to sit on a tractor. Depending on the inheritence laws in the future, a good portion of that farm may have to be sold off just to pay the tax.

On the other hand, an inheritance tax means the resources go to people who CERTAINLY have no stake (emotional or otherwise) in those assets.

So your solution to fix the problem of inherited resources being mismanged is to send those resources to a group of people who have even less “skin in the game.”

How does that make any sense at all?

At least a lazy, no good recipient of the family fortune has an ownership interest in the inherited assets unlike the govt in which those resources will be managed by people who do not even own the resources but can and will use them for any arbitrary political (or personal) agenda.

 
Comment by Anthony
2008-07-30 07:46:06

From what I see living in California the last 7 years, the number of people with money who actually earned it themselves is a vast minority. Typically, it is:

1. Inherited
2. Drug money (I live in Humboldt county, after all)
3. Flipping RE
4. Scams (such as bailouts, or fleecing someone else).

I would say that covers about 99% of the people with money in California. I have great respect for someone that actually earned their money over time, using their intelligence. With the rest of those people noted above, especially the inherited contingent, there is an entitlement mentality. Something for nothing.

 
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 08:54:53

Or, they have earned it by attrition.

It’s amazing to me how many of those who own (meaning no mortgage payments) haven’t really accomplished a whole lot in their lives.

There seems to be an assumption on this board that many of those with fancy homes that are paid off actually WORKED HARD. Lots of folks do squat on the job and get paid big bucks for it. LOTS OF PEOPLE.

Unfortunately, mankind does not yet have a means to reward the truly productive. There’s lots of highly paid ($100K+ yearly) leeches and locusts in the United States. And in every vocation and profession, not just housing.
I’d venture to sat that 3/4 of those earning $100K annually deserve incomes of less than half that based on their productive value to the economy.

We all know this, but it tends to get ignored here.

Rewarding workers for non-productivity is every bit as bad - if not worse - than passing along welfare checks.

 
Comment by Cassandra
2008-07-30 11:31:28

Your point is well taken. But there are quit a few ways to reward the truly productive. Take for instance the self employed. Other example are pure commission, and piecemeal.

 
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 17:51:58

I’m in total agreement.

 
 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 06:22:31

If anything it’s an argument against high taxes of any kind.

Unless you think your angelic govt. representatives are above such base human tendencies.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 08:34:44

Yes no inheritance tax for the elite,

a much better system is to borrow and print money and let inflation tax the poor and middle and upper middle class.

On the other hand, an inheritance tax means the resources go to people who CERTAINLY have no stake (emotional or otherwise) in those assets

How can you measure an emotional stake in cash. I know you’ll wine about the farmer - Well there was a huge exemption for farmers and no recorded cases of a family loosing a farm to these taxes. If the child ran short on cash he could certainly borrow money and pay it back so no way they would loose the farm if they were hard working and could make the farm pay.

The concentration of wealth in this country works against democracy, it works against capitalism which requires a fair playing board.

http://www.pbs.org/now/transcript/transcript_inheritance.html

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 09:28:45

I don’t favor farmers over anyone else I just happen to know that one person and was providing it as an example to my point about the diversity of heirs. It can’t be said that every heir is a lazy person and has only bad qualities or whatever. That’s just a method used by that those who wish to steal to dehumanize their victims.

a much better system is to borrow and print money and let inflation tax the poor and middle and upper middle class.

Sorry, that’s more your camp than mine. As long as you apologize for the govt and continue to support new ways for them to sqaunder resources, the bills get higher and that’s one way they pay for it.

I don’t think I have ever seen you suggest that maybe they should be spending less. It’s always just an excuse for the status quo and a new way to tax folks to pay for all the useful services we should be happy to receive.

I also notice you have a tendency to sidestep direct issues presented. Here is an example where everyone seems to agree that unearned resources are typically mismanaged by the recipients. I point out that the least earned/involved of all is when pols get more $$ via taxes and how it’s irrational to ackowledge the phenomenon but then suggest that the solution is to send the resources to those the least deserving and who have the least invested in those resources.

Your response, predictably, is just divert to some standard quip, in this case “no taxes for the elite”, rather than address the irrationality of “fixing” the problem of mismanged resources by sending those resources to the people most likely to mismange them.

You seem like a smart guy. When something seems irrational how about we promote stopping doing the irrational thing?

 
Comment by MightyMike
2008-07-30 10:58:54

The topics we’re discussing are drifting quite a bit here. If you go back to A. B. Dada’s original question “And people think welfare can ever work?”, you have to consider what the purpose of welfare is. If you ever read anything about welfare, you’ll find that most welfare recipients are desperately poor women with children. They need money to pay the rent and the electric bill and to put food on the table. If they use their welfare checks and food stamps to pay for those things, then welfare is working. If, for some reason, a woman were to spend the money on other things and allow the kids to starve to death, welfare would not “work” in that case.

Another topic brought up in this latest post is federal deficit spending, to which Mr. Bluprint repsonded
“Sorry, that’s more your camp than mine.” That all depends which camp each if us is in. Think about the past 30 years. Thirty years ago we had the much-maligned President Jimmy Carter. By current standards, deficits were pretty low during the Carter years. Then along came Ronald Reagan and the deficit tripled. We actually had surpluses for a few of the Clinton years. Many Republicans thought that those surpluses were a bad thing. The government is collecting more in taxes than it acutally needs! That’s outrageous! The extreme conservative Republican Alan Greenspan warned of danger that we might actually pay off our national debt. Of course, that prospect was nevr likely. Then along comes George W. Bush, who has set records in his deficits. Both Reagan and W created these massive deficits with a combination of big increases in military spending and tax cuts that went mostly to the wealthy. Of course, many Democrats went along with this nonsense in the eighties and 2001-2003, so both of the “camps” in DC bear some responsibility for the debt that will have to be by future generations. The Reagan and Bush tax cuts had the effect of moving some of that burden from the rich to the rest of us.

Here’s another thing. Nobody likes taxes.The folks who run the government have discovered deficit spending as a wonderful way to reduce taxes and increase spending at the same time. All that does is push the tax bill into the future. Deficit spending is just a way to raise taxes on your kids. It’s a burden that they evil have to carry for their entire working lives.

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 11:00:38

It can’t be said that every heir is a lazy person

I agree, let that person demonstrate their worth in the market place. I suspect many of these people have real talent and a strong work ethic. They should fair well in a free market even without inheriting billions of dollars. Inheriting wealth is likely to keep many of these people from being as productive as they could be.

That’s just a method used by that those who wish to steal to dehumanize their victims??
1. Taxation is not stealing, it’s legal.
2. They are not victims?? A progressive tax system taxes those who have benefited most from the system. Do you really think Mozillo’s children should be rewarded with the hundreds of millions he swindled out of borrowers lenders and US tax payers. Make them work for a living. Most of the elite make their money skimming off the productivity of others. The system rewards CEO’s far more it should. The reason is that it’s a good old boys club. Fine but the gov should tax those earnings.

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 11:04:37

Sorry, that’s more your camp than mine. As long as you apologize for the govt and continue to support new ways for them to sqaunder resources

Not sure which camp you are in but the current administration has created a massive deficit, I’ll vote to remove them. Will the next president/congress be better? Don’t know but I’m pretty sure they won’t be worse. At some point people will get fed up and stop paying attention to Brittney Spears, Gay Marriage, and Flag Burning and pay attention to the things that really affect them. I support Gov spending when it makes the country stronger. I support Gov spending to keep people from starving or becoming homeless, because starving homeless people commit crime (I would become a criminal real quick if my children were hungry and I couldn’t get a job). Most of all I support a gov that generates enough revenue to pay for it’s programs. If you want tax cuts cut gov spending to match them. If you want to increase spending increase taxes to pay for it. I support a gov that owns or highly regulates the conduits of commerce in a manner that is made public. Transmission lines, gas lines, rail lines, roads, internet ect, and creates an even playing field for anyone who wants to compete. If I want to generate power and sell it I can’t be stop by the power company. If I want to start an internet business I can’t be stopped by the internet providers or Microsoft, ect ect.

I don’t think I have ever seen you suggest that maybe they should be spending less.
1. Roll back farm subsidies
2. Make gas taxes pay for all highway construction and management. Cut income taxes by amount used to support highway dept ect.
3. Cut subsidies to Big oil tax gas to pay for war in Iraq and all the security we provide for oil production
4. Get rid of Welfare, but replace it w a works program
6. Means test and increase age req for Social Security
7. Slash military spending,
8 Carbon tax with money returned to tax payer in the form of voucher for equipment that increases efficiency.
9. Single payer medicare system. There is no free market in Medicine anyway. Either gov run or highly regulated private corp, ie gov says there are X levels of service, insurers then offer these different levels to customers and compete based on price. One gov site lists all companies that offer level 1 2 3 ect. Financial data for all companies offerring plans is made public, ie CEO compensation,payouts, late payments to MDs, complaints from people MD’s ect.

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 11:28:18

Another cut
No bale out for GSE’s or banks. No discount window ect.
Let them fail
Stock holders and bond holders take a bath
FDIC insures accounts, I’d even agree to increase the limit.
Banks may be taken over and then sold on the open market, once their assetts have been properly reported to the public and bidders.
Let Moody’s S and P Fitch ect have they year or two in court with investors who lost everything.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 11:58:25

1. Taxation is not stealing, it’s legal.

I didn’t say it is illegal. In fact, the entire conversation is about whether it should be legal. I make a characterization that this tax is immoral and you respond with “but it’s legal”. ??

I think “steal” can have both a legal connotation (which doesn’t really make sense in this conversation since there is no disagreement about what is legal) and a subjective one. “Legal” is a technical nuance. A thing can be both theft and legal, or theft and not legal, or not theft and not legal, etc.

Just like killing a black slave at one time was legal, that didn’t make it any less of murder. If I said “so-and-so murdered that guy” would you respond “it’s not murder, it’s legal”. Maybe if we were debating whether it was legal or not that response would make sense, but in the context of whether one human should be arbitrarily allowed to kill another, that response wouldn’t make any sense at all. And it doesn’t make sense now.

Do you really think Mozillo’s children should be rewarded with the hundreds of millions he swindled out of borrowers lenders and US tax payers.

There you go again. You are using the worst examples of society to represent the general case. It’s transparent and highlights your dishonesty.

The system rewards CEO’s far more it should. Fine but the gov should tax those earnings.

First, the entire corporate system is a system set up by the same government you think will “do right” if they were only given the chance. What you don’t get, is that the regulators are already in place. They are doing their job and doing it quite effectively. Their goal isn’t what you think it is.

Second, the other issue aside, to the extent that the people who “benefitted most” from the system should be taxed, then tax them on the income. In fact, last time I checked (fairly recently), there is already a tax on income. Further, the more you benefit, you don’t just get taxed proportionately more, you get taxed disproportionately more.

Taxing inheritance above the extent to which it would fall under a normal income tax for the heir is something else entirely. At that point, you aren’t really taxing the income anymore, you are taxing the ability of the deceased to save at best and at worst…maybe you just have a hardon to punish people who you perceive to have more than you? It’s like a bunch of crabs all pulling each other into the pot. If one guy gets a headstart, why such animosity? That’s strange.

And I still haven’t seen anyone address my original questions. If a fundamental point of your position is that these heirs “don’t deserve” the inheritence and therefore shouldn’t get it, then I think you have some intellectual responsibility to explain or defend how the people you would prefer to direct to (the pols who do with it what they will) DO deserve it.

Or for the people who argue specifically that b/c heirs have a greater tendency to squander wealth/resources and therefore should be deprived of it: explain how sending that wealth to the group of people more capable of incompetence and mismanagement (to the tune of 9 trillion if you use the funny government accounting practices that would be illegal for anyone else, or 50+ trillion if you use something more resembling GAAP) than any institution or individual I’m aware of, is an improvement?

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 14:42:22

“That’s just a method used by those who wish to steal to dehumanize their victims. ”
You used the term steal, and compared tax payers to victims. I stated that taxation is not theft or stealing, and those that pay the tax are not victims. They choose to live in this country, if they don’t like the law they are free to get it changed, which a small group of families did. <1% of families pay this tax. In 2006 out of 2.3 million deaths only 6300 left taxable estates.The right uses terms like steal to sway the conversation, just like they paraded the farmer as a victim of the tax, but no examples of families loosing the farm. Why because if if they ran short on cash they could borrow against the farm to pay it back, and not too many poor farmers with 2 million dollar farms. In fact a 2000 study showed that only 120 farms would need to pay any estate tax. Over 90% of businesses are worth less than 1 milliion dollars. Now you argue that the tax is not fair. Most things in life aren’t fair, but concentrating financial power in a few families that can then influence government to perpetuate their wealth is not good for the country. Tax cuts for the elite and inflation for the poor, middle and upper middle class is not good for the country or democracy.

In fact, last time I checked (fairly recently), there is already a tax on income. Further, the more you benefit, you don’t just get taxed proportionately more, you get taxed disproportionately more. The system rewards investment income and penalizes income for work rendered. It’s good to know that most middle and upper middle class workers pay a higher tax rate than billionair hedge fund managers and those that inherit their wealth.

“If a fundamental point of your position is that these heirs “don’t deserve” the inheritence ” This isn’t my point at all but Yes what exactly have heirs done to deserve their wealth other than be born to the right people.

My point is I don’t want a country where people are born into powerfull families and thus are able to manipulate the gov and system at the expense of all others. I want a country where you are measured by your work and your accomplishment and not by your last name.

 
Comment by CA renter
2008-07-31 03:48:49

measton,

You make good arguments and I usually agree with most of your points, but disagree vehemently with taxing inheritance.

Firstly, inheritance does NOT concentrate wealth into fewer hands. As a matter of fact, inheritance usually spreads the wealth as most decedents have more than one heir…so the money goes from one person (the deceased) usually to two or more (the heirs), and charitable organizations are very often one of the beneficiaries of a wealthy decedent’s estate.

IMHO, a wealthy person’s estate has already been taxed via income tax when the money was earned. Taxing the estate after death is double-taxation, as you are taxing the same money twice.

Additionally, the family’s money belongs to the family. My money belongs to my family, and that includes my children.

The best way to avoid concentrating wealth in a few hands is via progressive income taxes, and “passive” income should be taxes at least as much as “earned” income (from actual labor). On that we most definitely agree.

The heirs of an estate should not be taxed on their inheritance, but any future income from the estate should most assuredly be taxed progressively.

 
 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-07-30 06:28:51

Here’s my idea on inheritance, which I admit flies in the face of what I’ve actually got in place now, but I want to run this by my lawyer next time I’m in there:

The inheritance goes into a trust fund. The trust fund manages the assets. The kids each submit their tax returns to the trust annually as well as consent to disclosure of the tax data to the trust for later verification (e.g. to cover amended returns later in case they’re gaming the system).

Whatever an heir actually earns and declares in that year is matched by the trust. No income? No match. If they work lots, earn lots, or even make a killing on the stock market, they get matched. heck, this would even remove disincentives to work caused by high tax rates.

I suspect it’s way too complicated (read: expensive) to manage, but I’d sure love to have a good way to motivate recipients who would otherwise either blow it all in a year or retreat into a life of subsidised laziness.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by michael
2008-07-30 06:49:37

you don’t need the government to do that.

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 07:11:39

“Whatever an heir actually earns and declares in that year is matched by the trust. No income? No match”

I see were you are coming from…but what if you have a child that believes they feel good about using their life energy for the peace corps… instead of a commodities trader at Goldman Sachs?

 
Comment by Lesser Fool
2008-07-30 07:31:51

Put a dollar value on the volunteer work and match that.

 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-07-30 07:53:04

Nope, no volunteer work dollar amount. It’s complicated enough as it is, much less having to place a perceived value on various and sundry jobs.

If they want to GIVE money to volunteer organizations, that’s perfectly fine, but the kids got to work, as in money work. If they think the Peace Corps is their life destiny, so be it, but trying to value that properly leads to vagueness and lawsuits. So they can work as a bond broker, or mechanic, or even (God firbid) a lawyer, and then give generously.

 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-07-30 07:55:07

“God FORBID”, I mean. And “The kid’s got to…”
Oh boy, do I need more coffee? No, I think I need less today.

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 08:09:09

So your porn producer heir with a cocaine habit who makes $100,000 yearly… gets a matching fund…but daughter Sally doing medical prevention work in Africa gets $0 ?

“You can not directly pursue happiness”…Aristotle

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 08:54:32

Hwy50, I don’t think Nova’s intentions is to evaluate or reward life work for heirs, only to help mitigate against the effects of large inheritance. That plan seems to do so rather effectively.

 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-07-30 09:03:43

Yep, that’s how it would work. But who’s to judge that Sally in Africa is doing “better” work? (Eek, that’s libertarian for you, eh?) Before you slam me: I would think the med work is better for sure, but that’s just my own judgement call! But to try to define that leads to lots of subjective arguments. You highlighted an extreme case; there are many more reasonable cases that could be harder to decide.

And c’mon, what are the chances of a kid actually weighing a career decision to be a porn producer versus aid worker? Yes, greater than zero, but barely so. More likely is a scenario where Sally decides she has to weigh a paid job at the Medicin Sans Frontieres (sp?) office in DC versus that unpaid stint in Africa. Hey, easy decision: Take the office, and then she can donate the match-money to pay for others’ stints in Africa, and MSF gets two workers out of it.

Overall, though, my guess is that just handing them the money flat out with no conditions at all would lead to more trouble, on average, than with the “strings” — especially when people are still in their teens and twenties (and maybe even thirties) before most of us settle into our own personal spending habits.

 
Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:06:40

I agree with you HWY…I think NOVA has a interesting idea but your point is accurate…My feeling is that inheritance should come late in the benificiares life…More of a safty net….Give a little bit in the early years but you don’t get the big bonanza until your 50’s…

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 09:36:59

Nova,
Hey I’m struggling with this sit-U-ation myself, actually been dwelling on different scenarios…but I had a x1 sister that had x5 bad bad male, “significant others” / “Love of my life!” companion choices (x1 one was killed in prison & x1 was a 3 strike term winner) and she WAS addicted to heroin, another sister, who took my fathers S.S. $$$ to foster her skills at playing bingo x3 a week (She once was crowned “Bingo Queen”) leaving just enough money left over to purchase a months supply of lime jello & boxes of craft macaroni & Cheese for Dad.

So, what I’m struggling with is to avoid cash distributions in lump sum quantities…the kids (x4) aren’t going to think much of my ideas… I’m sure (how many kids think their parents understand their needs anyways)…but it will be across the board equitable…

But, I won’t be here…So what I leave them… I hope they understand, was what I thought best and that I cared & hoped about them all and hope that they are able to smile and be thankful.

One thing I learned is that it may not be your children that are the problem…but whom they are “Hangin’ with at various points across their life.

My prized inheritance: My fathers carpenter hammers and the skills he taught me how to use them. :-)

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-07-30 10:09:52

I know this will sound cruel, but in the end all those who try to support and help the poorest of the poor just end up adding to the overpopulation and global warming problems. They’re directly connected, in case you hadn’t figured that out yet.

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 11:36:00

I know this will sound cruel, but in the end all those who try to support and help the poorest of the poor just end up adding to the overpopulation and global warming problems. They’re directly connected, in case you hadn’t figured that out yet.

Here’s an idea, support birth control and family planning clinics even if they discuss abortion. Support education for women and womens rights around the globe. It’s pretty clear that when women can work, and have rights , and have access to birthcontrol they choose to have smaller families. Tie food aid to population control targets and education. If you have two kids you can only get food aid if you have your tubes tied or your husband gets the vas. The religious right supports war famine and disease as their method of population control, I favor the approach above.

 
 
Comment by Doghouse Riley
2008-07-30 07:35:30

“So, by the same logic, you would support very high inheritance taxes?”

I’d rather have rich kids pissing their money away than give it to Congress to piss away. Any old time.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 08:37:43

Congress and the President have been pissing money away anyway. If you haven’t noticed there is a massive debt. Now the question is how should that debt be paid off. A progressive tax that targets those who have benefited most from the system, or printing money which leads to inflation which taxes the poor, middle and upper middle class.

 
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 09:03:41

“I’d rather have rich kids pissing their money away than give it to Congress to piss away. Any old time.”

You dog, you!

Well said. While what you propose is far from ideal, at least some kids that receive inheritances further their knowledge and sense of responsibility from inheritances. N’oblesse(sp?) oblige and all that good stuff.

Conversely, if the government redistributes all the money, the kids are guaranteed to learning nothing from the gift. There’s no reason for them to have a conscience about what they do with the payola.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 09:05:17

Now the question is how should that debt be paid off. A progressive tax that targets those who have benefited most from the system, or printing money which leads to inflation which taxes the poor, middle and upper middle class.

None of that matters if you don’t first plug the holes. As long as spending continues to increase (congress recently set a new goal of 800,000,000,000 more debt to achieve) everything put into it is just more money down the hole. And increased taxes encourages increased spending, per the same theme discussed in this thread how people who have resources they don’t earn probably are going to mismange those resources.

 
Comment by Incredulous (the original)
2008-07-30 09:20:01

This is a free country. People have a right to leave their money to whomever they want. It is nobody else’s business. It doesn’t matter if the kids are hardworkers or deadbeats. It’s THEIR money, not OUR money.

There seem to be a lot of people on this blog who resent anyone having more than they do, and who spend all their time looking for supposed unjust distributions of wealth. If you want to live in a communist country where everybody has the same level of financial misery (except for the rulers, of course), go for it. Nobody has nailed your feet to American soil.

If I make a billion dollars and choose to leave it all to the laziest person on Earth, it has nothing to do with anyone else. How come people can’t grasp this concept? My stuff is not your stuff, and your stuff is not my stuff. If I give someone a gift, that item is hers, and I cannot tell her what she can or cannot do with it. But nobody has the right to prevent me from giving it, and the government certainly has no right to any of it. Inheritance taxes are ridiculous. The money has already been taxed as income and heaven-knows-what else, and it is a gift. Who cares if the recipient squanders it? The government would squander it even faster, and nobody would be any happier for it.

And if the government needs money, how about cutting out waste and fraud. That would reduce the budget by about 70%.

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 11:07:27

Obviously taxation has no baring on spending. GW cut taxes and spending went up.

 
 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2008-07-30 06:14:41

My parents gave me everything I ever wanted. Now I am running for President. - B. Obama

Comment by bizarroworld
2008-07-30 06:26:47

My parents and their cronies gave me everything I wanted and I screwed that up. I won the presidency and screwed that up, too! GWB

At least be non-partisan.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 06:29:52

“My parents gave me everything I ever wanted. Now I am the President “Decider”" …Shrub ;-)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by rms
2008-07-30 06:35:07

“I know of one family directly that blew their lottery winnings and then filed bankruptcy within 1 year of receiving their lump sum winnings.”

Being poor isn’t a lack of money.

Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 06:58:50

Must be they just want to be poor. What else could it be?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by combotechie
2008-07-30 07:51:45

“What else could it be?”

Maybe they didn’t know who they were and the lottery winnings allowed them to find out.

 
 
Comment by reuven
2008-07-30 19:20:07

Here’s an MSN story about 8 lottery winners and the hard times they had after:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveMoney/8lotteryWinnersWhoLostTheirMillions.aspx

It would be a great reality show to take some single welfare mom and give her $1M, then follow her for a year…..She’d be broke.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by hd74man
2008-07-30 07:02:17

RE: And people think welfare can ever work?

Military spending flat since RR.

Federal welfare and entitlement spending +75%.

Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 07:05:44

“Military spending flat since RR.”

Not true. Off the balance sheet pentagon spending is through the roof.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by MightyMike
2008-07-30 07:19:07

I have no idea whether your 75% number is correct. However, the majority of “entitlement” spending is Social Security and Medicare. Most Americans don’t consider those programs to be welfare.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 07:22:51

Nor are they “entitlements” but whatever makes a convenient case for ideologues seems to be in vogue these days.

 
Comment by MazNJ
2008-07-30 08:18:23

Wait:
“Military spending flat since RR.

Federal welfare and entitlement spending +75%.”

Isn’t that sort of like saying:

Oval Office bjs are down 100 percent since WJC.

or

Bikini Atoll temperatures are down 8,000% since Mike Bravo

Using a notable historical extreme high point from which to judge is lies, damn lies and statistics. I’m not knocking Reagan (support relatively high levels of defense spending) but that stat is utter crap.

 
Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:16:38

My dad was in the Bikini’s when they tested…Used all those Navey guys as guiena pigs…

 
 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 08:46:06

Welfare doesn’t work and on this point we can agree, I’d do away with it completely.

That said having a lot of angry hungry poor unemployed people running around the country isn’t a great idea either. I’m all for government works programs. No one gets money for nothing. Gov should provide a job that will cover food and shelter to everyone that wants it. The job should pay based on job performance, ie if you don’t complete the task you don’t get paid. It should leave time off to look for other work. It should provide day care.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:18:40

A WPA program…No work, No money…

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 10:01:45

They already have govt jobs.

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 11:13:39

Blueprint

What exactly do you plan to do with the unemployed? What if there is an economic downturn, are you willing to watch people starve? Are you willing to put up with the increase in crime, the malnurished children who will not be able to better themselves, and the spread of diseases that come with poverty?

 
Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 11:57:48

Sounds like a libertarian/authoritarian utopia.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-30 12:22:49

Unemployed people is going to be a issue as we go into a deeper recession . If a man or women can’t find work ,no matter how hard they try ,(and that doesn’t mean staying in the same life style as before ),than those people are
in need of assistance ,IMHO. The government should extend unemployment benefits for starters . Than if the situation really gets bad and people are starving on the streets ,than further assistance will be needed in my opinion ,until more jobs are available. A number of the unemployed will go live with family until things get better ,but many will have no
recourses .

The part about welfare that I don’t like is when it becomes a way of life for a able-bodied person or a gaming of the system by a women having child after child and never knowing who the father is ,yet half the time the cat is living with her not paying a dime toward their offspring .

Everybody wants their tax dollars to go to something that works and is productive .The home bail-outs are offensive to
a lot of people in that it’s bailing out the gamblers or lenders who were gambling and fraudulent in a lot of cases .Some of the tax dollars that are spent on programs just make matters worse . When politicians are bought out ,it really gets annoying and it explains a lot of the poor decision making in
government ,that can end up creating programs that are not good for the Country as a whole ,or create more problems down the line .

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 12:49:11

Sounds like a libertarian/authoritarian utopia.

I fed a hungry person today at lunch. What did you do?

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 12:55:36

measton, I don’t claim to be smart enough to cure all of life’s ills.

As long as there are those of you who claim to know how to do that, you will have plenty of followers. You will succeed in establishing your policies. Those policies will continuously fail and make things worse all around.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-30 14:24:55

But decisions do have to be made on how to use tax dollars to
create a well-functioning society . We have to have defense spending ,we have to have some welfare spending ,research and developments ,public projects ,you name it .

I’m always pushing job creating as a way to stimulate the economy ,but that’s just my view on a productive way of stimulating of the economy ,I’m sure some people don’t agree .

Blueprint ,I really don’t know what the answers are ,so it’s just
suggestions that I’m making . I’m like everybody in that I don’t like to much government interference in markets ,unless it’s
regulatory in nature in enforcing laws on the books . I didn’t feed a hungry person today ,except for myself ,but I have many times in my life . I also paid huge taxes when I was working ,and I wasn’t a tax cheat ,so tons of my money has gone into the programs . I’m still paying a lot of taxes yearly
actually .

 
Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-07-30 15:01:26

We need some sort of safety net. I don’t want my country to be the kind of place where people starve and freeze to death on the street in massively greater number than they do already.

That being said, that’s ALL it should be - a safety net. Not by any stretch of the imagination comfortable, and it should be rife with stigma - incentives for people to get off it.

I think one of the worst things they ever did was put food stamps on an unobtrusive little e-card. they should be florescent colors so everyone can see your spending their tax dollars.

All this and more, but it should be AVAILABLE to those in need.

Otherwise we’re no better than a third world country(yes I know we’re already headed there, and after Katrina one could argue we have arrived).

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 20:32:11

How could things get worse than massive unemployment starvation and riots?? Because if the economy goes into a tail spin that’s what we’ll have. Even honest passive people will become criminals to feed their family. I know you fed a hungry person today, but there may be many more to follow.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by cynicalgirl
2008-07-30 04:22:59

More predatory lending backlash. Some crazy dude lit himself on fire in one of those rent-to-own places…

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/07/newark_man_sets_himself_on_fir.html

Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 06:37:37

snap.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-07-30 11:50:24

“We don’t know if he had mental health issues or what sparked it,” he said.

I think it was probably his _lighter_ that “sparked it”. :-)

 
 
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 07:10:25

I wonder - is the cost to society less if someone commits suicide via fire, gunshot, jumping or drowning? Carbon footprint aside, of course.

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2008-07-30 07:53:06

Doesn’t he know he is supposed to shoot all of the employees, not light himself on fire? What kind of revenge is lighting yourself on fire.

 
Comment by Betamax
2008-07-30 08:27:50

That’ll show them.

 
 
Comment by bizarroworld
2008-07-30 04:23:46

Report: NYC Home Prices Outpace Rest of Country as Avg Prices Continue to Rise

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/report-nyc-home-prices-outpace/story.aspx?guid=%7BE776134D-9005-41BF-B21C-1A56905BA36F%7D&dist=hppr

In Manhattan, average apartment sale prices (condominiums and cooperatives) increased 29% to $1,548,000. Brooklyn and Queens apartments retained their values in the second quarter with Brooklyn average sales prices rising 3% to $500,000 and Queens average apartment prices increasing 7% to $286,000.

Hamptons Home Prices Fall on Wall Street Jobs, Economic Outlook

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMsrvDd4XcBg&refer=home

July 30 (Bloomberg) — Home prices in the Hamptons, the summer haven of New York financiers and socialites, fell almost 12 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier as Wall Street firms cut jobs and the economy teetered near a recession.

Sales dropped 26 percent and the median price slid to $970,000 in the resort towns on the East End of Long Island, New York-based broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate and appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. said in a report today.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-30 05:36:48

Right way to look at it: New York continued to be unaffordable compared with other areas of the country, making it more likely that the children of current residents will have to move away.

Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 06:20:42

Correct. It can also be said that oppressive property taxes should keep a lid on RE prices but it doesn’t seem to work that way.

 
 
Comment by Suffolk_Them
2008-07-30 06:21:55

The Hamptons Wannabees will be going off the cliffs like the lemmings they are.

 
Comment by Suffolk_Them
2008-07-30 06:27:44

Shock, horror: Hamptons’ home prices take hit

Brokers note that the Hamptons are largely enclaves of second homes for wealthy city-based residents, many of them captains of Wall Street firms. When jobs disappear and bonuses shrivel, having multiple abodes can quickly morph into an unnecessary and even unaffordable luxury.

Hamptons brokers are bracing for more bad news. The report doesn’t bode well for the rest of the year.

“Hampton home sales tend to strongest in the second quarter because new owners want to be able to settle in before the summer,” Mr. Miller said.

http://tinyurl.com/6n5j4y

 
Comment by WHYoung
2008-07-30 06:44:13

NYC stats for average sale prices are skewed, as the lower end at a standstill and higher end “richer than thou” transactions are making the numbers look better. This is temporary.

Already know one engaged couple who can’t sell their (seperate) apartments and are plannig to rent them out “till things get better”, and another married couple that are making family planning decisions based on the fact they can’t find a buyer for their (under 400 q ft) studio co-op.

Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-07-30 07:11:05

Under 400 sq. feet?

Yow.

Family planning definitely required in those close quarters.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-07-30 07:11:17

Here is what i still don’t get in NYC. How many people let alone a couple can live in a 400 sq ft studio?

Unless they have a plasma tv on the wall some flat panel bose speakers, 2 wireless laptops, a tiny Ikea 2 seat kitchen table, and they eat out a lot since there is not much room to cook or clean for a gourmet meal, even though they have the stainless gourmet stove.

And clothes, what a couple of pants and dresses and shoes …..even buying a normal sized dresser would be a major lifestyle purchase as to …uh we would we put it?

Comment by polly
2008-07-30 07:35:37

I had a 400 sq ft studio in Brooklyn for 3 1/2 years. Long before flat panel TV’s. I had a twin bed, a sofa, a desk, a chair, tiny table with 2 kitchen chairs, a dresser and a few bookcases. Plenty of closet space. I had 3 other people stay over on at least two occasions (two on pull out sofa and one on an air mattress). Another adult would have required getting rid of a lot of the furniture to make space for a larger bed. Adding a child to two adults would have been nearly impossible.

And yes, I didn’t cook much. Ate dinner at the law firm at least 5 days a week, sometimes 6. There was room for breakfast food in the kitchen.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-07-30 09:14:13

Maybe we should get a NYC HBB party together soon……

Around Grand Central seems a good area…..

 
 
Comment by Brian in Chicago
2008-07-30 08:18:01

I had a 400 sq ft apartment for a year. It was in a 1920s building and was very smartly designed. Newer buildings almost always seem to waste a lot of space.

The bathroom was small, but it still had a full-sized tub (with shower of course). The kitchen was the same size as the bathroom. The fridge was about 3/4 the size of a standard fridge, and the stove was about 1/2 the size of standard. The oven was just large enough for a normal-sized frozen pizza (to give you an idea of the size). All dishes were stored in a 1.5 ft by 1.5 ft Ikea cabinet that was about 6 feet tall. That’s the thing, you take advantage of the verticality of the space.

The place had a 50 sq foot walk-in closet that absolutely swallowed everything we threw at it. There were two shelves above the clothing rods, which were high enough off the ground to keep large storage bins beneath them. The top shelf, BTW, went 360 degrees around the closet (all 4 walls - above the door).

Had a full-sized couch, a queen bed, normal sized desk, tall bookshelves, etc.

If you are organized and not a shop-aholic that likes to accumulate things, you can live just fine in a small, well-designed place.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-30 09:24:44

“…you can live just fine in a small, well-designed place.”

Well put, yes you can. An awful lot of opportunities, adventures, and rewards await those who restore balance between “the home” and everything else in life.

 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-30 07:15:29

After the 1980s bubble, you had couples with three kids stuck in studios they couldn’t sell. They had expected to sell at a profit and trade up.

 
 
Comment by edhopper
2008-07-30 06:51:33

Not in this article, but a report on one of the local channels said apt. sales were down and inventory was up 30% YOY. So median price is very skewed to the high end and lots of property is not selling at current prices.
Manhattan RE does not do very well when Wall Street collapses.

 
Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:21:00

The 2nd home market is going to fall first…Gotta keep the home that is closest to work…

 
 
Comment by bizarroworld
2008-07-30 04:25:44

Mid-East investors pull back from US

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/8/story.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10524205

More than half way through the year, Mid-east investors have shelled out US$2.7 billion for US assets, say Real Estate Analytics, a New York real-estate research firm. But at that pace, this year’s total sales will likely fall far below last year’s US$8.2 billion.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-30 05:17:52

No, no, no - where are our entrepreneurs?!?!?! These guys can’t leave the party so soon. They need to leave more of their/our oil money behind.

Where’s the Donald? I thought places like his tower here and the Spire were being built for globetrotting princes? Come on REIC, the princes are the last “qualified” buyers left - don’t let them go.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 04:34:51

70% of australian starbucks closing:

Iconic US coffee chain Starbucks said Tuesday it would shut most of its Australian stores within a week, having already taken the axe to hundreds of US outlets as an economic downturn bites.

The company said it would shut 61 “underperforming” stores from a total 84 in Australia because it was refocusing to concentrate on the major cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and surrounding areas.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080729120748.9nkfqx41&show_article=1

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 05:09:28

Starmucks…still $9.99 at the local grocery…shelves were full…that’s means plenty of “inventory” right? ;-)

Comment by hd74man
2008-07-30 07:09:53

RE: Starmucks

Gotta be a complete loser to score your java from these hucksters.

But I understand the logic for the “I’m so hip” crowd.

It’s much easier on the wallet to fake it by carryin’ a Starmucks labeled cup down the sidewalk than wearin’ a pair of designer tagged $300.00 Chinese slave labor stitched fashion jeans.

Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 07:15:16

And don’t forget the obligatory 4 wheeled junk called Vulva.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-07-30 08:14:32

“And don’t forget the obligatory 4 wheeled junk called Vulva.”

Exeter, sometimes you are enough to make even a grumpy old coot like me smile.

These days everybody is parking their junk anywhere and everywhere.

 
Comment by mikey
2008-07-30 08:49:21

Starbucks was just a trendy cult, not unlike the Green Bay Puckers and their Cheesehead Fans :)

 
Comment by auger-inn
2008-07-30 10:45:41

“And don’t forget the obligatory 4 wheeled junk called Vulva.”

that wouldn’t be so bad if there wasn’t always some dickhead driving it. :)

 
Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 11:31:31

Dork in a Vulva is more accurate. ;)

 
 
Comment by MazNJ
2008-07-30 08:29:58

$2 for a venti regular. Heck, I try to bring my lunch as often as possible bc I don’t want to pay between 8 and 12 dollars for lousy food in the city but I can’t beat Starbucks. Heck, even crappy bodega coffee is around the same price and while it may not be the greatest coffee in the world, its far from bad.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-30 08:32:04

I hear it’s okay to be a hyper-consumer nowadays so long as you have ink (tattoos), piercings, and those retro horn-rimmed glasses.

Watching the hipster/rebels buying into the ownership society is both entertaining and enlightening. Yeah, yeah…they’re nothing like their parents at all…not at all.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 09:13:48

“Watching the hipster/rebels buying into the ownership society is both entertaining and enlightening. Yeah, yeah…they’re nothing like their parents at all…not at all.”

Hilarious! Are you referring to the hipsters of the 1960s or today? Because the 1960s were soooooo enlightening don’t you know.

Perhaps today’s hipsters will be more inclined to remain hip. Much less possibility for them to mindlessly flit from house to house, make 50-100 percent on the sale of each home, go skiing in Beaver Creek, and rent/own homes on both coasts.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:26:48

Wife just told me that the starbucks at the store was up over 12 bucks now…I told her to go back to Folgers….

 
 
Comment by Mike
2008-07-30 07:36:56

Starbuck’s closing 61 stores out of 84 in Australia! Is that all. I think there are over 84 Starbucks within a 5 mile radius of where I live here in Southern California! At least it feels like it.

Fortunately, I don’t buy Starbuck’s coffee. It’s a generatioin thing. To me, a cup of coffee is worth 60 cents. Tops. I once worked for a (very rich) guy who said (talking about Starbucks), “The day I pay more for a cup of coffee than I do for a gallon of gas - you can be sure I’m suffering from dementia.” Of course, that was before gas cost $4 a gallon.

Not sure about the rest of the country but (believe it or not) McDonald’s has great coffee AND you get re-fills. Just stay away from the rest of the junk they sell.

 
Comment by Anonymous Coward
2008-07-30 12:14:06

I live in Seattle and I spend about 25% of my time on travel to Australia. And when I go to Australia I get my coffee fix at Gloria Jeans, not at Charbucks.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-07-30 04:36:36

Even The Pros May Be Stuffing The Mattresses…
He confessed to the group that “I bought my first gold last week, and I hate gold. It doesn’t pay a dividend. I would only do it if I was desperate.”

Grantham said part of his angst comes from a lack of leadership. He criticized U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson for failing to force banks to raise capital when it was warranted two years ago. And he added: “Just imagine, we have chosen to borrow money from China so we can buy oil from the Middle East and use it to pollute the planet.”

Marc Faber of Marc Faber Ltd. blamed former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan for failing to acknowledge the Fed’s role in repeatedly inflating dangerous bubbles.

By keeping interest rates low, “the Fed has created a bubble in everything—stocks in emerging market, real estate everywhere in the world, commodities, art,” he said. “The only asset class that is down is the U.S. dollar.”

Generally, when bubbles burst, the asset prices stay down for lengthy periods. Grantham isn’t expecting the stock market to hit its low until 2010.

Farouki Majeed, the senior investment officer for asset allocation and risk management for the giant California Public Employees’ Retirement System, noted that with the tech bubble bursting in 2000 and the current bear market, investors in stocks have seen virtually no return for the last 10 years. That’s unusual, but typical of “boom and bust” cycles, he said.

Calpers reduced its exposure to stocks from 60 percent of the pension fund to just 54 percent this year.

Faber said, “It is quite likely that the current synchronized global economic boom and the universal, all-encompassing asset bubble will lead to a colossal bust.” And with commodity prices so inflated, he expects an “increase in international tensions” over resources.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-tue-gail-jul29,0,1843564,print.column

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-30 05:12:35

“That’s unusual, but typical of “boom and bust” cycles, he said.”

Enough with the doublespeak, so which is it already?

BTW, who said anything about a bust anyway? A recession hasn’t even be “declared” and what about Goldilocks? Boom and bust - preposterous - the good times never ended!

Now, anyone want to grab lunch at Bennigan’s today?

Comment by mrktMaven FL
2008-07-30 05:41:09

We’re liquidating and everything is positively much better than expected!

 
 
Comment by combotechie
2008-07-30 05:13:27

“… and he has been shorting oil. ‘Commodities had a good run, but that’s over’, he said”.

Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 07:20:46

You should have included Mr. Grantham’s entire sentence, sloppy dude.

“…Grantham said rather than buying stocks for the long run now, he would only “short” them, or bet that they will decline in price. He sees “nothing interesting in quality corporate bonds,” and he has been shorting oil. “Commodities had a good run, but that’s over,”…

Mr. Grantham may be mildly bearish, but he is GMO. GMO is responsible for all Vanguard funds outside of the US. If you have $10MM he will let you invest in his funds.

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 05:15:29

“…investors in stocks have seen virtually no return for the last 10 years.”

America…buy & hold…Wall Street always gives it best “rewards”… to “Main Street” :-)

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-30 06:54:26

Speaking of “buy and hold”, I notice that Ben Stein’s column hasn’t made the featured commentary list on Yahoo! Finance on Monday mornings as much as it used to a few months ago. That other Rich Dad joker is on there though - pumpin’ for the man.

Comment by Mike
2008-07-30 07:39:57

Ah, yes. Ben Stein. The actor who plays a financial expert.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 09:06:08

Don’t worry that idiot get’s a nice big space in the New York Times and other papers.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-30 05:40:13

My brother, who is in finance, follows the theory of “cyclical” and “secular” bull and bear markets. Under this theory, while there were “cyclical” bulls and bears in between, 1966 to 1982 was a “secular” bull market and 2000 to many years from not is a “secular” bear market.

The secular bear market will not be over until TRAILING PE ratios in average (not boom) times, and divided yields, are attractive. And they aren’t now.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-30 06:16:54

Profits falling by the most since 1998.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahwBWuxNJ5Eg&refer=home

“A 24 percent earnings drop would be the deepest since at least the second quarter of 1998, according to the earliest comparable Bloomberg data. Profits fell 23 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2001 and in the fourth quarter of 2007.”

“The decline marks the fourth straight quarter of reduced earnings for U.S. companies. The losing streak is the longest since the five quarters that ended in March 2002, when the U.S. was emerging from an eight-month recession. Excluding financial companies, profits have climbed 8.5 percent so far.”

And that is the excuse for the continued forecasts of a sharp rise in profits next quarter, as it has been every quarter. No one acknowledges that profits outside financials could continue to trend down as losses in financials finally end.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 06:36:18

Guys like this are dumb money. If AU goes up a little he sells and declares victory. If it goes down he says he never should have bought it. The long-term trend (now eight years into the commodity bull market) will go on for another decade at least. So he missed the move from 20 to 148 in oil but feels good about shorting it from 130 to 120. A fool and his money are lucky to get together in the first place. Let him go back to his 1% dividends, paid in a collapsing currency.

 
 
Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-07-30 05:29:57

Chicago Housing Bubble Blog Meet & Greet
Version 2.0
Thursday, August 7th, 6pm

The first one was a bit of a mess since I landed at O’hare late and showed up to the meet & greet late, so it was a bit tiny in number (Thanks ET-Chicago and whoever else showed up, though!)

I’m hoping to try it again, possibly at the same place. Do you live in Chicago and like to hang out or meet people who have the same attitude as you about housing, and likely did a few years back?

We met at Relax Lounge at 1450 W. Chicago Ave. Quiet, great burgers, decent service, lots of place to sit. Come hungry, come full, bring friends, bring realtors.

If you’re interested, e-mail me and I’ll keep a running list.

 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2008-07-30 05:37:25

The issue centers on the way Fannie and Freddie calculate their fair values for deferred-tax assets, which is really just a fancy term for deferred losses. If you believe the companies’ numbers, the more money they lose, the more their deferred taxes are worth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_weil&sid=aryKxwWwjIDQ

Comment by polly
2008-07-30 06:49:43

This actually works, but only if you assume they will have taxable income which they can use the current losses to offset. I think their days of earning taxable profits are pretty far away, so the value is pretty questionable.

Comment by mrktMaven FL
2008-07-30 08:28:25

Turning deferred losses to tax assets simply amuses my inner-Winston. It’s a wonderful rectification. It’s not unlike the “temporary” funding facilities — they only need them until they are no longer insolvent.

Comment by polly
2008-07-30 08:46:32

I’d like to see the footnote that explains the assumptions about future earnings that go into the calculation of the benefit. It would be a great example of accountant double speak. Oh, wait, Fannie and Freddie don’t finish their financial statements, do they? Never mind….

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by michael
2008-07-30 06:53:46

the audit firm that is not requiring a valuation allowance against that DTA should be andersoned out of existence.

 
 
Comment by polly
2008-07-30 05:40:36

I took some time off on Monday to go open new accounts at the most conservative bank in DC (I had FDIC limit issues at my other bank). It took an hour and a half. I know it was long over due, but what a pain in the neck - and points further south..

Comment by walt526
2008-07-30 09:26:34

Um… can’t you open a new account online?

Comment by polly
2008-07-30 09:47:42

Not this bank. I could have at an online bank or even one of the brick and mortar regionals at a guess, but this place wanted signature cards, to check two forms of ID and that sort of stuff. National Capital Bank. Very good ratings. Don’t sell their loans and are very conservative with giving them out. I wanted to develop a relationship with this bank for a few years down the road when I may want a mortgage as well as the FDIC diversification. They do have on-line banking, bill pay, etc. Just not for new account set up.

 
 
Comment by packman
2008-07-30 10:03:51

What bank, if you don’t mind me asking?

Comment by polly
2008-07-30 10:14:12

National Capital Bank. 120 years old. Main office is just a bit east of the capitol building. Branch office is in Friendship Heights. Extra quarter point on CDs if you have $15K total in deposits.

Comment by packman
2008-07-30 10:37:45

Thanks. I’m in the DC area, so may have to check them out.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-07-30 05:44:25

Because I tend to put my investment moneys (i.e., capital I want to take risks with but expect decent rewards when they work out) into local businesses, I’ve been hearing more and more ventures from people I know, or who are third parties when I go to hang out at the pubs or restaurants. Almost 60% of these ideas are real-estate involved, to which my answer is: “When you’re broke, see me so I can get a 5% referral fee from a bankruptcy attorney.”

10% of the ideas are reasonable, and some may get my money. I think recessions are the perfect time to incubate great ideas, especially when assets are cheap.

The other 30% are reasonable ideas, but the pitch falls more towards begging for a loan than looking for a silent investor. I’m even hearing more and more “poor me, poor me, I need money” discussions from friends, and those are usually passive ways to beg for money. I don’t loan friends money, I give it to them if they’re worthy. Most are not. Failure is the best way I’ve learned anything in life — I want to write a book to battle Rich Dad, Poor Dad called “Rich Once, Poor Once” that details ONLY my failures. They’re the best stories I have, and they’re always my fault. Always.

So now I have a new tactic when people ask for a non-investment loan: I offer to lend them money at just 10% interest. The catch? I’ll only loan them gold dollars, which I want repaid at face value plus the 10%.

If someone needs US$3000, I’ll offer to lend them 3 ounces of gold at 10% interest. Most respond “But what if the price skyrockets before I pay it back?”

Exactly. Don’t ask again.

Comment by Wheatie
2008-07-30 06:02:32

AB Dada-

I like your idea for a book. I would read it as long as your failures don’t recount the exact same mistake all the time. I can read other books about insanity ;-)

Secondly, I would take your loan in a heart beat with gold dollars. That 3000 today probably will only cost me 2000 to pay back in a few months…

Sorry I won’t meet you and others in Chicago. I will be out of town next week :( Hope the bash is a hit so there will be others.

Comment by mikey
2008-07-30 09:39:11

I missed the information of the HHB Chicago get together.

Anyone have the when and where details ? :)

Comment by Wheatie
2008-07-30 11:34:20

Chicago Housing Bubble Blog Meet & Greet
Version 2.0
Thursday, August 7th, 6pm

We met at Relax Lounge at 1450 W. Chicago Ave.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 05:46:36
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 05:47:50

S.D. home prices plummet 23.3% in year
May 2007-08 decline is fifth-biggest in U.S.

By Roger Showley
STAFF WRITER

July 30, 2008

San Diego and many other metro areas around the country continued to see record home price declines in May, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed yesterday.

The index, which covers same-property sales in 20 metro areas, dropped a record 15.8 percent from May 2007 to May 2008, with San Diego down a record 23.2 percent.

 
Comment by polly
2008-07-30 05:47:53

NYC in tumult over subway credit/debit machines not working. Commuters run around looking for cash to be able to get to work.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/30/nyregion/30metro.html

What would happen if all gas station credit/debit machines failed at once?

Comment by polly
2008-07-30 06:25:26

Love this quote from the end:

Marti Nusbaum, a visitor from Florida who was waiting to buy a one-day, unlimited MetroCard at the Times Square station on Tuesday, said she had little use for cash. “When I go to the A.T.M., I’ll just get $20 and it lasts all week,” she said. “You know why I prefer using a credit card? Because with my credit card I spend more freely when I want to have fun.”

Nutshell summary of what is wrong with the American consumer.

 
Comment by WHYoung
2008-07-30 06:50:33

Read “The Handmaids Tale” by Margaret Atwood - In the book one of the first things the dictators did when they staged their coup was to cut off the debit/credit cards in a cashless society.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-07-30 07:21:55

The HESS gas stations around here seem to fail a few times every month…never did before and i’ve been buying gas at the same station for 9 years……

2 weeks ago at least a dozen cabs had to find gas elsewhere….

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 05:51:43

I am still puzzling over the $800,000,000,000 increase in the federal debt ceiling for a measure intended to help 400,000 borrowers. Unless I am off by a decimal place, that equates to $2 m increase in the debt ceiling per deserving American family who will be helped. Does that strike anyone besides me as excessive?

Bush signs housing bill to provide mortgage relief

By JENNIFER LOVEN – 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush on Wednesday signed a massive housing bill intended to provide mortgage relief for 400,000 struggling homeowners and stabilize financial markets.

Bush signed the bill without any fanfare or signing ceremony, affixing his signature to the measure he once threatened to veto, in the Oval Office in the early morning hours. He was surrounded by top administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing Secretary Steve Preston.

“We look forward to put in place new authorities to improve confidence and stability in markets,” White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. He said that the Federal Housing Administration would begin right away to implement new policies “intended to keep more deserving American families in their homes.”

Comment by walt526
2008-07-30 06:04:52

The increase in the debt ceiling is only partly for the bailout measure. Rest is just Congress’ semi-annual increase in authorization to borrow ourselves further into oblivion.

 
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 06:07:42

The housing bailout is nothing more than a tax-and-spend measure disguised as something that will help “victims” of whatever.

That’s all it is. It has nothing to do with untangling what ails the housing market.

Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 07:03:58

You mean borrow and spend. It’s the best way to keep everyone enslaved to the banks.

Comment by iftheshoefits
2008-07-30 08:31:03

Tax and spend, borrow and spend, whatever the case may be, the keyword for the government and the consumer is, “spend”.

If people ever wake up to the reality of their debt servitude, things will really get interesting.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 09:13:07

They won’t realize it until the borrowing stops and invoices are sent. How lazy, devious and corrupt the borrow and spend mantra is.

 
Comment by Peterpaul
2008-07-30 14:42:19

To spend IS to tax.

We will be paying one way or another for years to come for what has been spent by our recent administration.

If we are lucky, we will get to pay it back with depreciated dollars.

If you think that is bad, think of the burdens associated with paying back money with money that is long gone (deflation)…

 
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 18:10:30

“If we are lucky, we will get to pay it back with depreciated dollars.”

That’s one hell of an interesting point and one I think is worth talking about as a weekend discussion topic as it related to housing and economics in general. You’re talking about what potentially could be a very big deal. Thanks.

 
 
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 09:21:11

Nah…more like Steal and Spend.

To “borrow” implies at least a fleeting sense of obligation. Since when has our government been obligated to return what it steals?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 10:09:35

I’m paying 6% interest on our debt. If that’s not borrowing I don’t know what is.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Asparagus
2008-07-30 06:10:50

Me too!

I hadn’t seen $800 billion yet. I’m still trying to figure out the $300 billion bill. This is such a basic, enormous question. When I tell folks about this, they act as if it’s soooo complicated that regular folks shouldn’t try to figure it out.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 06:18:50

“…soooo complicated that regular folks shouldn’t try to figure it out.”

That is part of the bailout strategy: Toss about gargantuan figures that boggle the minds of the sheeple whose children will be left with the tab. The more flummoxed the typical voter feels, the less likely he is to protest or question the measure.

Comment by neuromance
2008-07-30 18:26:32

Seventy percent of the population mostly supports the measure. They want the bubble re-inflated so they can either go on flipping, or feel like they’re sitting on a treasure chest with their own house.

The attitude I got this past weekend from homeowners was, “If we don’t do it, it’ll be Great Depression II” or “It’s not going to affect me, and heck, I’d like to see house prices stabilized, and who knows, it might do the economy some good.”

The 30 percent against it are a more than 2 to 1 minority.

The measure was a case of 2 wolves and a goose deciding what to have for dinner, in a very democratic format of course :)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2008-07-30 06:12:45

Your math is wrong. Divide the $800 billion by the number of GSE bondholders.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 06:15:58

My math was right relative to the political announcement about the number of homeowners to be helped, but I believe your suggestion that I used the wrong denominator is correct.

 
 
Comment by ozajh
2008-07-30 06:14:30

The two aren’t linked, even if they might be in the same bill.

The 800 gigabucks is to cover the debt increase coming from the overall deficit.

Comment by hondje
2008-07-30 06:55:34

And yet, the green back has been gaining on the Australian Dollar and the Swiss Franc….? What’s up with that…?

Comment by nhz
2008-07-30 08:31:33

yes, record gains (for just two days of trading) against the euro too. Preemptive central bank action?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by swissluxury.com
2008-07-30 08:40:00

M A N I P U L A T I O N

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by packman
2008-07-30 06:18:15

Well - the deficit is expected to be $480B next year not including any funds going towards F&F. That’s a big chunk of the new ceiling delta right there.

Bailout or not - very few people seem to grasp how far into debt the U.S. government is getting. Foreclosure here we come.

Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:46:24

Foreclosure here we come ??

Higher taxes, Higher unemployment here we come…

Comment by packman
2008-07-30 10:29:12

My theory is that the two are mutually exclusive though, this time. The FedGuv simply doesn’t have the option to raise taxes, because the American consumer simply has no more wiggle room. Tax revenues will in fact be going significantly *down* over the next few years due to:

A. Higher unemployment (i.e. less income tax), and
B. Lower capital gains taxes - in all areas - stock market, housing, bonds, etc.

Thus we’ll simply be stuck, having to add to the deficit at an ever-increasing rate. At some point there simply won’t be any more world money to borrow - at that point the U.S. will have no choice but to declare bankruptcy, and begin to sell of its assets in bulk. The only thing in question is the logistics.

Anyone mind if China makes the rules for Yosemite Park? They don’t exactly have a stellar environmental record, BTW. If you thought Hetch Hetchy was bad, you should check out Three Gorges.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by bizarroworld
2008-07-30 05:51:49

Private sector gains 9,000 jobs in July: report

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080730/usa_economy_employment_adp.html

This is one stat that makes little sense to me after the carnage of the last few months. Any thoughts as to why the dramatic improvement?

Comment by packman
2008-07-30 06:53:40

My guess would be a large variance in accuracy of the numbers, possibly combined with a general true variance in employment values. In reality people are finding new jobs all the time at a fairly constant rate, but layoffs come in larger chunks as big companies have large reductions. Also keep in mind there’s typically a lag time of several months to a year even between when a company announces layoffs to when those layoffs actually translate to contributing to unemployment numbers.

In short - what matters is the several-month trend. The individual monthly numbers contribute to this trend of course, but each individual monthly number is relatively meaningless. This is true for almost anything - e.g. median home price numbers, which is why when I look for statistical meaningfulness in any media-released stats, I *always* average out the numbers over a several-months period to look for meaningful trends.

 
Comment by edhopper
2008-07-30 07:00:35

You must always look at the death/birth adjustments. The DOL has been overestimating these for a while.
In other words the number is bullshit.

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-07-30 07:22:27

RE: Any thoughts as to why the dramatic improvement?

It’s the last minute employment ramp up for the 10-week tourist season from July 4th to Labor Day.

The jobs are minimum wage slave labor slots doin’ stuff like filling ice cream cones, changin’ sheets, swabbing toilets, and emptying the trash barrels at tourist haunts.

You know…the things that make America Numba #1.

Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:51:27

Yep…Watch out after labor day…7% + unemployment here we come…Maybe 8% +…

 
 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2008-07-30 05:53:41

To continue my post from yesterday, I asked the friend who I was in discussion with, “Do you have a link to any articles that can back up this information? Specifically the lawsuit and the Congress legislation threat.”

As a reminder, this is what he originally wrote: “About 3 years ago, Congress threatened to pass legislation that punished financial institutions for not lending to high-risk borrowers. Since people with poor credit were not able to buy a home, they filed a lawsuit against the lenders for discrimination. To prevent a Congressional Bill lenders raised the amount of borrowing to 120% of the home’s value, and were basically forced to write loans to people with bad credit or who didn’t qualify based on lower incomes.”

His reply today was, “Nope, I just remember the debates on the Hill about how the demographic of people who were being turned down for home loans were low income, mostly minority, with bad credit. And Congress threatened lenders that they had better start loosening the requirements for these minorities or they’d fix it.”

Like everyone here, I prefer something tangible to back things up.

Comment by polly
2008-07-30 06:07:34

I think your friend’s memory was vastly oversimplifying. There was some legislation, but it was aimed at banks that blackballed certain neighborhoods because of the demographics. The idea was that a relatively low income but responsible white family with $a of downpayment, $b of family income, c fico score, etc. could get a loan and a black family with identical numbers would be rejected and the bank would say it was because of the neighborhood. The legislation was to make the banks evaluate people with the same “numbers” the same way.

I actually think this legislation may have made a very very tiny contribution to this mess. By completely emphasizing loan underwriting based on numbers, and no human contribution by the bankers at all, it moved us a little closer to a system where fudging the numbers was enough to commit fraud. Shifting a number a little bit is easier than signing a statement that in your professional opinion the person is a good loan risk. Now, the fraud would have happened anyway - the incentives were all there. I just think that the total emphasis on numbers helped nudge things along a little faster.

Black balling middle class and working class neighborhoods with large minority populations was morally reprehensible, but the legislation had some unintended consequences.

Comment by polly
2008-07-30 06:18:23

Oh, and the legislation your friend may have been referring to is the Community Reinvestment Act and it was passed in 1977. Various administrations emphasize or de-emphasize it in different ways. For example, if the Clinton administration really emphasized banks and thrifts hitting the numbers for loans in poor neighborhoods, followed by the Bush administration de-emphasizing bank and thrift audits, you get a mix where banks adminstrators are used to having to hit the numbers in a regulated environment and then loose some of the oversight.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-30 14:03:39

Lenders use to red-line entire neighborhoods because the foreclosures rates were higher in certain locations . Than the government stepped in and made it discriminating to turn down a party just because they lived in a certain neighborhood if they qualified . At that time in the early 80’s ,Lenders were allowed to turn down loans for health and safety violations however .One has to ask ,if a area does produce more foreclosures ,a prudent lender would want a bigger down payment to protect their risk ,but that was considered being discriminating .

But it’s clear that the government is always pushing for low-down loan programs for a sector of the populations . How low down loans got so popular and widespread can only be explained by the concept that “leverage” became the name of the game with every price group when the greedy mania took hold . IMHO ,it was not a government mandate to make these liar loans to the degree that went on and I can’t help but feel that the government was not condoning fraud ,that was something Wall
Street and all the other greedy pigs in the transactions warped into . Why Congress and other regulatory bodies were a sleep at the switch ,is another question . In fact ,its seems all check and balance systems were not operative ,which is funny . It suggest to me that a segment of the business community had so much power that it caused a major departure from business as usual .

The long term loan market of the past was consider very safe ,
so who would of know if mortgage backed investments were rated unfairly .In other words ,the industry relied on their past steam and good past performance for decades ,yet the system changed to past the potatoes and make big money off the commissions on faulty lending and fraudulent loan products .

I make a call that Wall Street created the easy money situation of high risk loans ,(along with the rating agencies )and the originators and real estate sales people and borrowers just took advantage of the unchecked system ,that is still present today .

The entire economy was benefiting from all this house equity and appreciation and it was funding a bull market for Corporations and every other business .

While Greenspan held the rates to low for to long ,all regulatory bodies ,including Congress/Senate, ignored a fraud ridden mania
whereby there was no explaining why people were able to afford such high price real estate ,if you look at average incomes . The price of homes didn’t match the incomes
in different areas ,so something was amiss . Something being very wrong was clear in 2005 , yet eye closing allowed the mania to continue well into the latter part of 2007. All the same parties that allowed this are the ones that are coming up with the policies and bail-outs when they all should be fired as far as I’m concerned . I don’t trust any of them and you would of thought that re-making the corrupt system would of been their first move ,but the powers have put that part off until another day (maybe because all the laws are already on the books against what happened .)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 05:55:07

PAGE ONE
GM, Ford Scale Back Car Leases as Era Ends
By JOHN D. STOLL, LIZ RAPPAPORT and MATTHEW DOLAN
July 30, 2008; Page A1

Detroit’s money troubles are starting to put a key part of the American dream — a pricey new car — out of reach for some people.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-07-30 06:11:43

The SUV bubble. Higher education next?

Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2008-07-30 06:49:22

Please, not higher ed, at least not for a couple more years so I can get vested ;). Seriously though, I can’t see how these private schools are going to survive with ever rising tuition. There are only so many people who can pay $50000 a year.

 
Comment by polly
2008-07-30 07:02:58

Wedding industrial complex next. Education will be much later unless the student loan programs completely dry up to nothing.

Comment by Asparagus
2008-07-30 07:36:13

Oooo. That’s a great call.

Anectdote, went out with some newlywed friends for dinner last week. Turn’s out, new bride’s father had HELOC’d the wedding. (which was absolutely extravagent)

She didn’t find out until after. She now feels like a spoiled piece of sh(t.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-07-30 07:37:39

Sorry Polly………But Weddings are what i do for the money. So here it the truth wether you like it or not….

Weddings are double the price because its double the work….the amount of time i spend with the B&G over the course of 6 months -1 year, the preparation the changes…all add up.

Some brides are easy a few emails a meeting or two, a visit to the venue..and then the big day…but others are bridezillas wasting tons of time, changing the first dance song 10 times the bridal party 10 times….having a fight with the MOH 2 days before the wedding…then getting sloshed at the wedding….

So actually i’m with you in the end, i’d rather do high school reunions , you throwing your parents a 50th birthday party 25 or 50th anniversary….but guess what polly?

Thanks to the housing bust the kids are not spending the money on their spouses birthdays or parents anniversaries. and reunions tickets are $100 each….so that business is down 50%+ since last year….

Thats why i am for gay marriage…I can’ t believe a republican would be against creating JOBS!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Betamax
2008-07-30 08:48:59

Her point is not merely that they’re overpriced, but that they’re in line for a correction as the easy money dries up.

You’d do well to take notice.

 
Comment by polly
2008-07-30 09:14:48

I don’t think paying a dj to play music at a wedding is an outrageous expense, certainly not part of the recent run up in huge wedding expenses. My brother got married 3 years ago. I have no idea what her mother spent, but my parents claim they spent close to $20K for a shower, the rehersal dinner, and various clothes, gifts, etc. I spent $2K and that was just for a bridesmaid dress, travel, hotel, shower/wedding gifts, etc.

They had a band - must have been 7 people. The band necessarily took more breaks than a dj would have since they were actually playing and singing, and while they were good, they weren’t as good as hearing the actual music by the original artists. Going back to good dj’s is going back to old style reasonable weddings and away from the overspending of recent years.

The other stuff I think is out the door? Bachelor/ette parties to Vegas and tropical islands, cosmetic surgery for bridesmaids, fireworks, destination weddings with more than parents and siblings attending, releasing doves, flowers that cost more than a good used car, mandatory themes for weddings (the venue asks you your theme and make you feel like you are doing it wrong if you don’t have one), and anything else you can think of that will tend to make a party for two large families cost more than a typical family can afford to spend out of savings without derailing their retirement, college savings for other kids, safety net for themselves, etc. Getting married is not an excuse to spend like a rich person if you aren’t rich. You aren’t, in fact, a princess. Get over it.

 
Comment by James
2008-07-30 09:33:13

Odd, this sounds deflationary.

 
Comment by Eudemon
2008-07-30 09:34:19

Wow! You and I certainly do travel in different circles, Polly.

That’s a shame. The last wedding and reception I went to was held in May in a barn, with the latter beginning immediately after the former. Among the festivities included a cow-milking contest…with one contest for those who knew what the hell they were doing and the other for those who didn’t (like me).

Jeans, t-shirts, shorts, tennis shoes and a garden hose were all the rage. So was lots of cheap beer, horses, free musicians, etc. It was a hell of a lot of fun.

No wonder why both the bride and groom have so many friends.

 
Comment by polly
2008-07-30 10:08:08

Not my circle. My sister-in-law’s or rather her mother’s. To her credit, she works for a living and married a guy (my brother) who couldn’t begin to change that. Her family is wealthy. Not wall street wealthy, but wealthy.

My best friend did her entire wedding for less than $2000 and planned it in less than two weeks. It only went that high because she had to have a photographer and enough trimmings to provide documentation for her husband’s green card application. INS likes to see pictures of you surrounded by your loving family.

You couldn’t pay me to do what my sister-in-law did. Not in a million years.

 
Comment by ca-renter
2008-07-30 10:41:28

$50 bucks for the marriage license, $75 for the Judge at his chambers, $8 huli huli chicken, $10 safeway cake, $19.95 box of fireworks.

Aloha

 
Comment by polly
2008-07-30 10:53:26

gas plus parking or bus fare to get to judges chambers - lets be fair on the comparisons….:)

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:54:27

Question for both of you (W T & Bear)…If you made a long term bet, would it be on GM or Ford… ??

Comment by Skip
2008-07-30 11:26:33

I would bet GM if they could finagle a way to dump their pension obligations on the PBGC and eliminate the remaining 50k Union workers without a trip through bankruptcy.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 09:56:17

Not if Obama wins…Free college for everyone…

 
 
Comment by walt526
2008-07-30 06:26:13

Question: is it just consumer leases that are getting eliminated, or are they doing away with commercial leases too?

That could cause a cash crunch on companies they typically lease their vehicle fleets.

Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 08:51:58

Only corporate leases that are not toto. e.g. a five year lease with a $1 buyout is doable, a 1 yr lease for 60K miles is not doable. Trucks, vans, equipment vehicles, no problem. Sale persons are apparently toast.

The hottest selling car coming off 1 yr lease is the H3 Hummer (at least up here, the dealers cannot get enough of them). They are selling for $14K and get around 22mpg with the straight 5.

Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 10:00:38

hoz…I would like your opinion also;…

If you made a long term bet, would it be on GM or Ford… ??

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 16:25:07

GM

Not because it has a better product line up (the Volt is being developed with non existent technology), but because of its presence in Brazil, Columbia, Argentina, China and Russia. South America is exploding with cash and they buy GM. GM is number 1 in China and in China the car of choice is the Cadillac Escalade.

Ford has a strong lineup. If Ford had GM’s equivalent presence they would be trading at $50. GM’s problems stem from the GMAC home lending fiasco.

Without GM’s international position, GM would already be insolvent. If I owned GM, I would shut down the US and keep manufacturing in Brazil and China. The US market is the least profitable and the most expensive to maintain. Not worth the headache.

 
 
 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2008-07-30 06:57:17

A pricey new car is a key part of the American dream? Who’s American dream? Not mine.

If you can afford lease payments, you can afford used car payments. Who gives a crap if it’s not brand, spanking new. It’s a vehicle to get you from point A to point B. Again with the media drama.

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-07-30 07:31:36

RE: Detroit’s money troubles are starting to put a key part of the American dream — a pricey new car — out of reach for some people.

Like an auto lease confers any form of ownership.

All you are is a sucker tenant to be later sacked with exhorbitant re-hab and over mileage fees.

Ownership with a title after a set period of payments for the majority of people died years ago.

Another fine example of the standard of living in this country getting double flushed down the proverbial crapper.

Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2008-07-30 11:04:24

Didn’t your Realtor(R) tell you? It’s the most horrible thing ever to rent a house, but it’s totally A-OK to lease a few Benzes.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 05:57:18

Has the anger stage of the housing bubble stages of grief hit J6P?

United States
The economy: the problem
Workingman’s blues

Jul 24th 2008 | KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI
From The Economist print edition
Americans are furious about the state of their country. In the first of two articles, we examine the reasons for their discontent

Comment by combotechie
2008-07-30 06:28:11

“I think my generation [will be] the last to see a great America.”

Music to my ears. This is the thinking that accompanies a bear market, a time when Wall Street offers clearance sales.

 
Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 06:34:22

It took him long enough to figure it out and who to blame. We’re there…. finally.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-07-30 06:45:21

If they are so furious then why, at the first sign of any trouble, do they keep turning to the same beltway clowns for answers?

This “furious” populace is the same populace that allows the MSM stooges to stifle good ideas (and people with good ideas…hint…hint…) in favor of insider, groomed contenders.

If this “furious” populace would keep its collective snout out of the stores and stop buying all their garbage - then maybe they’d get a point or two across.

Comment by sf jack
2008-07-30 09:53:22

The Economist often uses terms like “furious” to spice up its material. I enjoy reading it immensely, but the editors must think that for many others that it is akin to watching paint dry.

I’m furious about some recent government actions to be sure, but other than some others on this forum, I’ve rarely talked to anyone else in person who thinks the same way.

 
 
 
Comment by merce
2008-07-30 06:00:12

In a desperate attempt to gain credability S&P ratings are predicting
a 17% annual price decline in UK market. As these guys couldn’t score in a brothel i am assuming the decline will be much greater.

Negative equity threat for 1.7m

Comment by nhz
2008-07-30 08:33:46

maybe just another foolish attempt by these crooks to prop up the US housing market?

‘ours is less shaky than yours!’

 
 
Comment by walt526
2008-07-30 06:02:58

Looking for some advice… I had an idea for a startup business, although I’m fairly certain that it will be 2-3 years at the earliest before both the market will be right and I’ll be in a position to invest the time into it.

Does it make any sense to register a corporation now, establish a few lines of credit, and let it age for a few years to improve the Paydex? I’m not interested in paying $5k for an aged shelf corporation from Delaware or whatever, but I would be able to open up some corporate lines of credit using a personal guarantee (and then I’d seek to establish new lines of credit without the personal guarantee when things actually get movig). The registration fees would be ~$180, plus the paperwork and renewals but it should be relatively minimal cost relative to the potential savings on future financing.

Thoughts?

Comment by John
2008-07-30 07:42:44

Having your business in existence for a couple of years won’t have much effect on your credit worthiness. It is very difficult to come by corporate credit these days and nearly impossible without a personal guarantee. All of our companies have been in business for 5+ years and the parent for 15. We do $50M in revenue annually and constantly get rejected for Walmart and gas cards without a personal guarantee. Good luck.

Comment by A.B. Dada
2008-07-30 07:50:44

I disagree.

I incorporate and decorporate various Inc annually.

I can get, and have had, over 100 LOCs with no PG. 9n under 3 years of business. Gas cards are harder but doable.

I’d say go for it. I’m writing a free “blook” on where to get biz cred w/o a PG. It’s time-consuming so start early.

Comment by walt526
2008-07-30 09:09:10

Hey A.B.,

I’d be very interested in reading anything you have or will write. Also would be willing to provide feedback before publication, it that would be helpful. Please feel free to email me (just add @gmail.com to my HBB username).

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by John
2008-07-30 12:02:56

AB Dada,

You seem like a very shrewd businessman and I don’t doubt your claims for a minute, but I was wondering if you have applied for any credit recently, like in the past few months. In the past we haven’t had many problems but it seems corporate credit has tightened drastically in recent months.

If you do end up writing anything on the subject please post the link here. We would also be very interested in reading it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Drysdale
2008-07-30 07:51:09

Walt, it sounds like your goal is to build up your Paydex without really proving your ability to generate revenues and manage expenses/debts (much like individuals did with FICO scores). In my experiences, Paydex is used for trade credit, not bank credit so I don’t think it will help you in obtaining bank lines of credit (with or without personal guaranties). The bank probably won’t care how long your corporation has been established or what your Paydex is, if you have $0 revenues and no track record.

Not trying to make a judgement, but it sounds like you don’t really want to risk anything personally and you expect a non-recourse loan based on a meaningless, computer generated score. Not all that different from $0 down, Alt-A loans IMO.

Nothing wrong with protecting your corporate name early in anticipation of starting up - you are right, the costs are nominal. Just don’t expect non-recourse lines of credit on a start-up company with no history of revenues. If it were that easy . . . sign me up for about $10 mil - I think I could live off that for awhile.

Comment by walt526
2008-07-30 09:06:03

I wasn’t thinking so much in terms of a toxic mortgage. When I was in college I got two ~$500 credit cards and didn’t use either, except for big unusual expenses (like airfare home) that was immediately paid off. By having several years of credit without any lates, I qualified for a car loan after I graduated without needing a co-signer. Establishing that type of positive credit history is what I’m looking to do, not mislead potential lenders.

I realize that personal credit isn’t directly analogous to corporate; however, it is my understanding that a few established credit accounts over a few years are beneficial down the road. There’s a whole cottage industry that sells aged shelf corporations for $5k+ with the express purpose of allowing a startup to quickly obtain favorable financing. I’m not interested in something like that, but if I can establish some modest credit lines legitimately and if that can help me down the line, I don’t see a problem with it if it can be done cheaply and legally.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 06:06:52

Note that the implied purchase value of these securities is
$30.6 bn / 0.22 = $139 bn. Poof! $100 bn+ up in smoke…

Merrill Deal May Cause Banks to Revalue Debt
By ANDREW DOWELL and ED WELSCH
July 30, 2008

Merrill Lynch & Co.’s fire sale of assets might burn some other fingers on Wall Street.

In the world of complex and infrequently traded securities, the investment bank’s move to unload $30.6 billion in securities to private-equity firm Lone Star Funds produced a rare data point: a market price. And that market price was 22 cents on the dollar.

Comment by walt526
2008-07-30 06:23:31

This could be the beginning of the end if more investment banks start recording 78% losses.

Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 07:27:57

*I see them reluctantly lined up at the confessional as they eyeball the fed across the street*

I wonder if J. Thain still feels dirty?

 
 
Comment by Marcus
2008-07-30 06:39:17

I believe the face value was $30.6 billion and they were sold for $6.7 billion… so only $23.9 billion went poof… as if that’s somehow good news.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 06:55:27

Thanks for the correction. This sale serves to illustrate that liquidity issues can easily be resolved by sellers reducing their asking prices to levels which buyers are willing to pay.

Lone Star’s Splash
Firm Is Flush and Ready to Shop
By JENNY STRASBURG and ANDREW MORSE
July 30, 2008; Page C3

Lone Star Funds’ $6.7 billion dive into mortgage-backed assets dumped by Merrill Lynch & Co. shows how ready some investors are to move into this market when the pickings are right.

Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 08:41:27

No

They show that an individual, when it can borrow money from the owner, will purchase. If the purchase goes south, the individual will dump the securities back to Merrill. No problemo. That is Merrill’s only recourse. There is no personal guaranty on the purchase or loan agreement.

If the securities recover, the individual makes APR 37%+. It is a huge ‘IF’.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 09:43:12

IMHO the more interesting aspect of the Merrill sale of stock is what happened to Merrill’s debt. Currently 700bps over (few companies can survive 500 over). So buy Merrill debt/short stock. The unwind should occur at 350over/$16 (debt/stock). The corporate bond market has Merrill as BK.

The reason is that The Federal Reserves actions have been to save corporate bonds at the expense of shareholders. (private transactions have been to screw the bond holders e.g. BAC on Countrywide)

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2008-07-30 12:20:57

Not to worry, this latest, greatest bubble will mitigate the losses for these investment houses:

“Light, sweet crude for September delivery soared $4.53 cents to $126.72 a barrel in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices jumped more than $5 a barrel, marking crude’s biggest one-day rally since July 10, when prices ended $5.60 higher.”

“Also boosting prices Wednesday was a report by Goldman Sachs, which affirmed its earlier forecast that crude will hit $149 a barrel by the end of the year.”

Must be nice to be clairvoyant, huh? Now that everybody KNOWS oil will hit that price, it’s a no-brainer, go all in on crude!

 
 
Comment by qaxbami
2008-07-30 06:10:17

Lone Star buys Merrill’s mortgage debt

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/30/business/30lonestar.html

On Monday night, Mr. Grayken’s private investment company, Lone Star Funds, agreed to pay $6.2 billion for most of the toxic, mortgage-linked investments held by Merrill Lynch.

The deal was classic Grayken: Lone Star, which has a long history of swooping down on troubled assets, paid 22 cents on the dollar for investments with a face value of nearly $31 billion. Mr. Grayken’s firm even got Merrill to finance 75 percent of the purchase price. If the investments turn out to be worthless, Merrill, not Lone Star, will be on the hook for most of the losses.

Bad loans might strike many people as poor investments. But the business of trading distressed debt is undergoing a renaissance on Wall Street, as money managers and traders search for ways to profit from fears that defaults will keep rising on a wide range of consumer and corporate loans.

Companies like Lone Star — vulture investors is Wall Street’s term — root through loan files and try to determine how much the debt is worth. If the vultures buy the loans, they then seek to recoup that value, either by working out the loans with borrowers, pushing the properties through foreclosure or holding on to them until they can be sold.

Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2008-07-30 06:58:25

But, what exactly did they buy? If they bought mortgages, they could refinance consumers into more affordable digs and get a return. But were not there tons of CDO CDO2 CDO3 CDOn that are basically meaningless unless the original underlying loan is being repaid?

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-07-30 15:44:28

Am I the only one who thinks that if Merrill financed 75% of the deal, and it’s essentially no-recourse financing, that the real price of these securities was:

6.2b * .25 = 1.55b

This smacks of window-dressing to me: MER is moving them off its books, but the risk is still really on their books due to the financing which can go bad in the future..

If Lone Star was really only willing to risk 25% of the purchase price, that looks more like the real price to me. If MER could find someone willing to pay more than that, they would have sold to them instead.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 06:13:50

At this point, investment banks are beginning to resemble Terry Schiavo. Will these banks eventually be required to repay these monies?

Fed to Let Banks Borrow Until 2009,
Extending New Credit Facility

By MEENA THIRUVENGADAM
July 30, 2008 8:56 a.m.

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve Wednesday said it will extend the date through which investment banks will be able to borrow from its discount window.

In light of continuing tightness in credit markets, the Fed said it will extend use of its primary dealer credit facility through Jan. 30, 2009, beyond its originally scheduled September end date.

The Fed also said it plans to extend its term securities lending facility through the same date and introduce auctions options for primary dealers to borrow up to $50 billion of draws on the facility. (Read the full statement.)

The Fed also is introducing an 84-day term auction facility to complement 28-day term auction loans it announced in December as a way of addressing liquidity problems in the short-term money market. Auctions of those loans are scheduled to begin Aug. 11.

The Fed said the facilities announced Wednesday could “be withdrawn should the board determine that conditions in financial markets are no longer unusual and exigent.”

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 06:56:06

“the Fed said it will extend use of its primary dealer credit facility through Jan. 30, 2009, beyond its originally scheduled September end date.”

Gee, what possible upcoming event is scheduled to happen between Sept & Jan?

No silly, not an October “buy the dip” stock market opportunity. No, not the coming of the “Great Pumpkin”. Something people do that can be swayed by how they “feel” about their gov’t on that day. ;-)

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 08:50:56

I suppose the Fed retains the option to keep investment banks on life support loans forever.

 
Comment by packman
2008-07-30 10:34:33

Serious answer - the election. After feel-good Obama is elected, all will be right with the world again, the money will flow through natural means, and no more need for Fed credit extension.

I’m not kidding.

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 07:37:47

“…could “be withdrawn should the board determine that conditions in financial markets are no longer unusual and exigent.”

…or when hell freezes over…which ever comes first. ;-)

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-07-30 10:28:06

How many years did the Japanese govt let their banks hide their insolvency? Lather, rinse, repeat as one poster says here.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 06:30:55

TODD HARRISON
Hanky panky
Commentary: Are we trading against Hank Paulson?
By Todd Harrison
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT July 30, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — They say the friction between opinions is where true education lies. If that’s true, we’ve officially entered the realm of higher learning.

As both sides of the societal chasm haggle over how the market — and, by extension, the economy — is being handled, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has found himself in the center of the storm.

 
Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 06:56:23

Those fighting for free enterprise and free competition do not defend the interests of those rich today. They want a free hand left to unknown men who will be the entrepreneurs of tomorrow. - Ludwig von Mises

 
Comment by Poshboy
2008-07-30 07:00:14

Here is a piece I just found from the American Enterprise Institute about the current status of the housing crisis. Some pretty sobering numbers in there.

It’s Only Going To Get Worse

“America has not had a nationwide housing crash since the 1930s. At one point during that calamity, an estimated 60 percent of all mortgages were in technical default, says Lindsey. The vacant home problem is just one of the issues in the current crisis:

* There are 129 million housing units in the United States, comprising owner-occupied, rented and vacant units.

* Of these, 18.5 million are currently empty, and this number is expected to continue rising.

* This vacancy rate is 2.5 percentage points higher than it has been at any point in the half century the data has been tracked, which means there are at least 3 million too many empty housing units in the country.”

http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.28076/pub_detail.asp

Comment by exeter
2008-07-30 09:06:06

Wow. Two days in a row we get truth. Yesterday from Merrill, today from AEI who can only be described as an organization of nutjob radicals looking to rob you blind.

Refreshing.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-07-30 10:31:35

15% of all homes are vacant? Only way that could be is if they’re counting people’s second homes and seasonal rental units as empty.

 
 
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-30 07:04:56

Fed extends emergency loan program for Wall Street

The Fed said the program, where investment houses can tap the central bank for a quick source of cash, will now be available through Jan 30. Originally the program, started on March 17, was supposed to last until mid-September.

Another program, where investment firms can temporarily swap more risky investments for super-safe Treasury securities also will continue through Jan. 30, the Fed said. And, it also will let commercial banks, in a separate program, bid on cash loans that last longer — for 84 days, besides the 28-day loans now available.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080730/fed_credit_crunch.html

Comment by In Colorado
2008-07-30 08:49:11

Do I hear the sounds of printing presses warming up?

Comment by mikey
2008-07-30 09:32:11

Nah, that’s just the sound of Wall St biggies shoes hitting the ramp for Charter Flight 999 to the Cayman Islands and undisclosed locations …beyond :)

 
 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 10:15:41

Let’s see that gets us right up to the election doesn’t it.

Hmmm??

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 07:30:09

Mortgage lender… Implode-O-Meter
Bank… Implode-O-Meter
Bankruptcy… Implode-O-Meter
Budget Deficit… Implode-O-Meter
Retail… Implode-O-Meter
Savings…Implode-O-Meter
Auto Industry…Implode-O-Meter
Airline Industry…Implode-O-Meter
Newspaper…Implode-O-Meter
Restaurant…Implode-O-Meter
Car rental…Implode-O-Meter
Boat Industry…Implode-O-Meter
Dentist/pawn shop…Implode-O-Meter
MSM pundit…Implode-O-Meter

All Implode-O-Meter listed are digital and require coin deposit. :-)

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 07:40:09

For item #3 listed above:

Billion-dollar bankruptcies on the rise

Halfway through 2008, bankruptcy filings among companies worth more than a billion dollars are already at a five-year high, according to BankruptcyData-dot-com. Of seven billion-plus bankruptcies this year, May’s collapse of subprime mortgage lender Fremont General Corp., with $13 billion in assets, tops the list. There were 15 such bankruptcies in 2003, and a recent high of 25 in 2001. With today’s high levels of debt, rising energy and materials costs, and the weak economy, “we seem to be in the midst of a ‘perfect storm’ leading to more bankruptcies,” says BankrupcyData’s George Putnam III. (Reuters) Yesterday, restaurant chains Bennigan’s and Steak & Ale, and clothing retailer Mervyn’s filed for bankruptcy. (The New York Times)

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/business/96946

 
Comment by JRinUT
2008-07-30 08:05:18

This made my day!

 
Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 10:13:04

You crack me up Dodge…:)

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2008-07-30 15:50:05

Nice… :-)

But I actually think pawn shops will do great in this downturn. They have tons of leverage due to the growing desperation. That translates into motivated customers (sell-side) and great margins. And there will be some buyers. The key will be not ending up with TONS of inventory–only buying what can be turned over economically to those ready buyers with cash.

I’d go long pawn shops today.

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 07:37:14

There is no magic cure for mortgages

Published: July 29 2008 19:37 | Last updated: July 29 2008 19:37

There are at least a dozen ways that the government could defrost the UK mortgage market. It could order the Bank of England to start lending, guarantee asset-backed bonds issued by banks, or set up a British Fannie Mae; heck, the government could just hand out loans direct to housebuyers. Yet all of these measures would subsidise and distort the market, so even as mortgage approvals fell to a new low on Tuesday, Sir James Crosby, leader of a government review, was right not to propose any of them.

Yesterday’s Bank of England figures on mortgage lending were dire: the number of mortgages approved to buy a new home fell to 36,000 in June, down 68 per cent on the same month in 2007. The great boom in British house prices appears to be over – to the dismay of politicians and mortgage lenders, who enjoyed the boom immensely, and want the government to do something, anything, to bring it back.

As Sir James sets out, however, that is not easily done. The final years of the housing boom were financed by money market funds and structured finance vehicles, many from outside the UK, which bought securitised mortgages from British banks. Last summer they stopped doing so. Banks’ only replacement source of finance is retail deposits, but they cost more, and fewer are available.

The government could step in and offer guarantees or cheap finance but it would be a mistake. House prices need to fall back to an equilibrium, financial markets need to price in sensible risk premiums, and the economy needs to adjust. Any scheme to keep house prices pumped up – and to encourage first-time buyers to pay inflated prices – would be irresponsible. It would merely deepen and delay the pain.

Practical changes to make mortgage finance work better – such as better disclosure of the assets underlying mortgage-backed bonds – are welcome where they exist. In a market where house prices are falling, however, and undermining the security of mortgages, it is hard to believe that any simple innovation will bring a flood of money into housing finance. Greater issuance of covered bonds may help but the market needs no help with that.

It is time to accept that the only possible cures for the mortgage market are worse than the disease. All interventions that would work rapidly involve subsidies: even if the subsidy is subtle, such as Bank of England underwriting for the liquidity risk of asset-backed bonds. The previous model of mortgage finance was unsustainable and now it is up to the market, not the government, to find a new one.”

editorial FT

Comment by nhz
2008-07-30 08:40:54

It is time to accept that the only possible cures for the mortgage market are worse than the disease

… but in Euro land the politicians and banksters are still not listening; crazy finance for the housing market is proceeding as usual, except for some troublespots like Spain. The EU housing bubble will be the last one to crash, and the biggest bang of them all.

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 07:50:00

“GOOD DAY FOR: Better customer service, after angry Chinese air passengers smashed computers and desks at the Kunming airport following the cancellation of their flight. More than 170 passengers were stranded, then ignored by China Southern Airline or directed to a hotel that turned them away.
Chinese authorities blamed the scuffle on an “inappropriate working attitude” among China Southern staff.”

And how do Chinese authorities correct “worker attitude problems”?

Forced reading for 22 hours a day of Dilbert cartoons…and 6,000 slaps across the face with a rolled up bamboo mat by a smiling non-ethnic Tibetan monk.

MADE IN CHINA = toxic warning label

 
Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 07:57:54

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — Zimbabwe will drop 10 zeros from its hyper-inflated currency — turning 10 billion dollars into one — the country’s reserve bank said Wednesday. President Robert Mugabe threatened a state of emergency if businesses profiteer from the country’s economic and political unraveling.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i4kT7pJlnuzY_vpKdTACcQYIPcvQD9286J480

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-07-30 08:20:44

“…will drop 10 zeros from its hyper-inflated currency — turning 10 billion dollars into one — the country’s reserve bank said Wednesday.

In the US of A…our “Reverse Bank”…does just the opposite…Mr Bear! …please present the evidence to the court. :-)

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-07-30 08:35:24

“Entrepreneurs across the board: Don’t drive us further,” he warned. “If you drive us even more we will impose emergency measures.”

no, No, NOOOO, NOT “emergency measures”, please god NOOO.

On a serious note, I wonder if one so inclined could buy things from Zimbabwe for cheap (as in, well below world mkt prices) now. Like family heirlooms, or stolen govt property, etc.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 08:29:56

big apple for sale:

In a rare, brief televised address, Gov. David A. Paterson announced on Tuesday afternoon that he would call the Legislature into an emergency session on Aug. 19 to address what he called an economic and budget crisis confronting New York State as a result of plummeting revenues and rising costs.

The new governor avoided any mention of new taxes, instead arguing forcefully for austerity. He said he was calling on the Legislature to reduce the size of the state workforce; cut agency spending; reduce property taxes for homeowners; aid New Yorkers with the soaring costs of home energy; and even consider public-private partnerships that would take over state assets.

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/paterson-warns-of-economic-crisis/

Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 10:16:55

reduce the size of the state workforce; cut agency spending; reduce property taxes for homeowners ??

Yeah right…Never happen…Never does…Look for “Revenue Enhancements”…

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 10:19:11

Yep
Let’s sell the highways to honest companies like Enron.
Then we can all where identification tags so the government can record our every move.
If America falls for this crap we are all in trouble. Private companies will then give big contributions to politicians to make sure they secure the highways for pennies on the dollar.

Once again the middle class and upper middle class will shoulder the burden while the elite profit.

Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2008-07-30 11:20:42

Interstate Highways should never have been built in the first place. The economic distortion and forced dislocation of people required to build these monstrosities is just atrocious. They have encouraged middle-class flight from the cities, and brought about a situation where everyone is practically forced to own a car, whether they like to drive or not.

If they are sold, hopefully they will be sold to a halfway competently run company or (preferably) a group of companies. They would then be free to experiment with new ideas like speed limits/tolls that vary by time of day, air-traffic style tracking to ensure vehicle separation, etc.

Comment by ChrisO
2008-07-30 12:36:51

Oh, horsepucky. Do you think we, and all of the freight and service vehicles that provide goods/services, should all be traveling around on old-fashioned country roads? Do you have any idea what that would do/have done to our economy? Have you noticed at all that *every single* developed country, and most developing ones, have very substantial freeway networks?

Without a freeway network, this country would have infrastructure more comparable to Rwanda or Ecuador than to Germany or the UK.

The problems with our road network have more to do with government budgetary priorities and corruption than with finances. We were able to maintain the world’s best road network for decades with a GDP much smaller than we have at present. Heck, even many public transit systems are bogged down in self-made financial difficulties right now.

The price tags on maintenance and new construction have greatly outpaced inflation for many years now, which tells you that the taxpayers are being fleeced. Privatization has drawbacks, but one benefit is putting some notion of the bottom line into the process. Unfortunately, such “privatization” often ends up being a way of rewarding political insiders, while leaving taxpayers still footing the bill. Either way, the problem is eminently fixable if the will is there to do it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2008-07-30 16:47:12

Amazingly, people find ways to get themselves and their cargo from place to place without the benefit of huge government transportation boondoggles.

This country grew from an obscure colonial backwater to the world’s leading superpower without the benefit of Interstate Highways. In the 19th century, many canals and railroads were privately built. Here’s something to chew on:

THE ROLE OF PRIVATE TRANSPORTATION IN AMERICA’S
19th-CENTURY “INTERNAL IMPROVEMENTS” DEBATE

http://www.mises.org/journals/scholar/internal.pdf

I cannot fathom why Eisenhower, having defeated Nazi Germany, was so eager to imitate its road system– unless it was some deep-seated guilt over winning the war. In any case, a government (such as Nazi Germany) which is powerful enough to build massive infrastructure “improvements” is also powerful enough to sap all the energy of its citizens, and that will lead to its downfall.

 
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2008-07-30 16:57:44

Also, regarding developed/undeveloped nations, you have the cause and effect backwards. Contrary to standard media claptrap, countries do not become wealthy because of “investments” in “infrastructure”. They become wealthy because of freedom and individual rights. Then govermnent comes along, sees all this wealth, and says lets tax it and build some big boondoggles. Then things start to go downhill.

 
Comment by measton
2008-07-30 20:45:46

” a government (such as Nazi Germany) which is powerful enough to build massive infrastructure “improvements” is also powerful enough to sap all the energy of its citizens, and that will lead to its downfall.

A government not strong enough to stand up to business will see it’s people stripped of their wealth the nation stripped of its natural resources, and the environment polluted.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 08:33:03

hedgies short oil? (for you contrarians)

(Reuters)—The tumble in the price of oil over the past few weeks may have been exacerbated by hedge funds deciding that it was just too expensive, particularly in relation to gold.

http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080729/REG/199388112/1036

Comment by walt526
2008-07-30 09:17:15

I also wonder how much the sell off of oil is to raise cash in anticipation of markdowns on MBS/CDO/etc. Also, whether some have to raise cash to cover shorts since the mini-rally starting ~07/15/08…

 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 09:23:23

Oil futures are reflecting the oil carry trade. Just another currency play that is time to unwind with the Yen at 108.

 
Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 11:05:04

The USD rally seems fizzled, and oil is up 3. If only Prof Bear would extrapolate this trend…

 
 
Comment by hip in zilker
2008-07-30 09:11:00

Russia takes control of Turkmen (world?) gas
By M K Bhadrakumar

From the details coming out of Ashgabat in Turkmenistan and Moscow over the weekend, it is apparent that the great game over Caspian energy has taken a dramatic turn. In the geopolitics of energy security, nothing like this has happened before. The United States has suffered a huge defeat in the race for Caspian gas. The question now is how much longer Washington could afford to keep Iran out of the energy market

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JG30Ag01.html

 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 09:18:32

http://securities.stanford.edu/clearinghouse_research/2008_YIR/20080728.pdf

Securities Class action filings 2008 mid-year assessment

 
Comment by Ria Rhodes
2008-07-30 09:33:32

Anyone know if the “environmentally friendly” Governor Terminator sold his collection of full-size Hummers? I hope so, because he sure is preaching to Californian’s to reduce their energy consumption. Is he leading by example? (or) practicing that old California creed of “do what I say, not what I do?”

Comment by scdave
2008-07-30 10:20:54

Is he leading by example ??

Why sure he is…Have you not seen the fuel efficiency of a
G-7…??

 
Comment by makeschips
2008-07-30 11:04:28

I don’t think he sold them. He converted some to run on biodiesel. It turns out individuals still need to pay the road tax even if they’re recycling french fry oil. Seems our good gov is a tax dodger……..

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 10:05:26

“The Chinese government’s watchdog for equities, the CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) has issued an edict to local fund managers that they are not to issue any pessimistic reports about equities during the Olympics in Beijing.”
China Vortex

Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 11:23:47

:) I wish our politicians were this plainspoken.

 
 
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-30 10:05:51

RealMoney by TheStreet.com
Never Mind the Optimists, It’s Ugly Out There

Let Wall Street and the TV talking heads be as bullish as they want. Oil may give us some relief, but the real problem for the stock market remains residential real estate. Until homeowners feel comfortable with their ability to pay the mortgage, thy will not spend. Until they spend, the earnings of companies that do business with consumers will continue to be soft. The overall direction for the stock market remains down. I would not be an aggressive long and would be selling rallies.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080730/10431047.html

dosent this contradict what Mr. Cramer shouts to his followers every day? i wonder if they will let this guy right articles for them anymore?

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-07-30 10:10:40

Administration:US bond rating safe despite deficit

“It is a huge advantage to have that AAA-rating and we are committed to that,” Anthony Ryan, Treasury’s acting undersecretary for domestic finance, told reporters. Ryan spoke as he unveiled plans for financing $171 billion in borrowing during the current July-September quarter, the second highest total on record.

Those borrowing needs have exploded this year. The government has been coping with a sagging economy and the need to finance more than $90 billion in economic stimulus payments made over the past three months to people as it tries to stave off a deep recession.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080730/federal_borrowing.html

Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 10:38:37

“It is a huge advantage to have that AAA-rating and we are committed to that,”

Hi, I would like to redeem my AAA rated paper. Oh, I see…they are irredemable. Backed by nothing, you say? But what about that ‘full faith and credit’ stuff? No, I don’t want to buy more. No, I don’t care how many trillions you just printed up. Look, just forget it…

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-07-30 10:10:53

With banks’ credit difficulties expanding rapidly, the Federal Reserve auctioned another $75 billion in 28-day credit to financial institutions through its Term Auction Facility.

The over-subscribed Monday offering received more than $90 billion in bids from 70 institutions, according to results announced today.

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/11831503/c_11832402?f=home_todayinfinance

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 12:09:27

Are these loans likely to ever be repaid, or will they turn out to be a permanent loan from those owed dollars to the banking sector?

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-30 14:58:28

PB….I ask myself your question all the time . If a financial institution goes belly up ,than what position does a creditor like
the Feds/treasury hold ,(or does the feds just get the junk paper?) Can the short term loans be turned into long term loans for institutions ,or do they just keep turning the short term loans over and over again ?

A heck of a lot of money has been extended on these short term loans ,I guess being backed by junk paper in a lot of cases ,so this lending causes me more concern than anything .

 
 
 
 
Comment by dannll
2008-07-30 11:55:05

“We actually had surpluses for a few of the Clinton years. ”
We NEVER had a surplus during the Clinton years. It was just accounting magic done by including SS and Medicare in the general fund. Unfortunately W is throwing money away so fast that he can’t even cover it with the SS money.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 12:17:21

The world cannot grow its way out of this slowdown
By Kenneth Rogoff
Published: July 29 2008 18:44 | Last updated: July 29 2008 18:44
Ingram Pinn illustration

As the global economic crisis hits its one year anniversary, it is time to re-examine not just the strategies for dealing with it, but also the diagnosis underlying those strategies. Is it not now clear that the main macroeconomic challenges facing the world today are an excess demand for commodities and an excess supply of financial services? If so, then it is time to stop pump-priming aggregate demand while blocking consolidation and restructuring of the financial system.

Absent a significant global recession (which will almost certainly lead to a commodity price crash), it will probably take a couple of years of sub-trend growth to rebalance commodity supply and demand at trend price levels (perhaps $75 per barrel in the case of oil, down from the current $124.) In the meantime, if all regions attempt to maintain high growth through macroeconomic stimulus, the main result is going to be higher commodity prices and ultimately a bigger crash in the not-too-distant future.

In the light of the experience of the 1970s, it is surprising how many leading policymakers and economic pundits believe that policy should aim to keep pushing demand up. In the US, the growth imperative has rationalised aggressive tax rebates, steep interest rate cuts and an ever-widening bail-out net for financial institutions. The Chinese leadership, after having briefly flirted with prioritising inflation (expressed mainly through a temporary acceleration in renminbi appreciation), has resumed putting growth as the clear number one priority. Most other emerging markets have followed a broadly similar approach.

 
Comment by Lurker100
2008-07-30 13:30:53

So what made the market jump in the last 20 minutes again?

Comment by vozworth
2008-07-30 19:19:57

short covering margin calls….

they still hit people right in the mouth EVERYDAY.

because, everday feels like the last f-ckin day when your about to jump out the window based on “everything is so”….dontcha know.

time to bury txchick and ncyboy…they must have reached peak blog.

 
 
Comment by Suffolk_Them
2008-07-30 13:39:44

It seems that Vacation Home areas may be in for some extra tough sledding. Not only do such toys become the first on the auction block, but with the housing rescue bill they look to be an inferior investment versus a Primary Residence. From: http://tinyurl.com/5no2pb

“3. Vacation-Home Hit

We’ve been taking for granted that lovely $250,000 ($500,000 for couples filing jointly) personal residence capital-gains-tax exclusion for about a decade. Savvy taxpayers have played hopscotch, moving from home to vacation home to the next home, etc. and avoiding income taxes on the sale of each one. That free ride is at an end.

The personal resident exclusion is still good on your personal home. However, you’ll be paying taxes on the sale of your vacation home, or rental property converted to a home. The tax will be based on the amount of days the house was not a qualified personal residence divided by the total number of days you owned it. This ratio is multiplied by the amount of gain realized on the sale of the property.”

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-30 14:42:47

That new tax law on second loans will cause more listings being put on the market before year end no doubt .

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-07-30 14:44:02

Sorry , I mean second homes ,not second loans .

 
 
 
Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2008-07-30 14:03:53

Got my certificate from the bank today that shows I no longer have a mortgage.

*whew*

Comment by combotechie
2008-07-30 15:06:50

Congradulations!

 
Comment by polly
2008-07-30 15:36:51

Congratulations!

 
 
Comment by lurknomore
2008-07-30 15:19:17

London Times Obituary of the late Mr. Common Sense

Interesting and sadly rather true.

Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense, who has
Been with us for many years. No one knows for sure how old he was, since his
Birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red tape. He will be
Remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:

Knowing when to come in out of the rain;

Why the early bird gets the worm;

Life isn’t always fair;

And maybe it was my fault.

Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don’t spend more
Than you can earn) and reliable strategies (adults, not children, are in
Charge).

His health began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but
Overbearing regulations were set in place. Reports
Of a 6-year-o ld boy charged with sexual harassment for kissing a classmate;
Teens suspended from school for using mouthwash after lunch; and a teacher
Fired for reprimanding an unruly student, only worsened his condition.

Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the job
That they themselves had failed to do in disciplining their unruly children.

It declined even further when schools were required to get parental consent
To administer sun lotion or an Aspirin to a student; but could not inform
Parents when a student became pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.

Common Sense lost the will to live as the churches became businesses; and
Criminals received better treatment than their victims.

Common Sense took a beating when you couldn’t defend yourself from a burglar
In your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.

Common Sens e finally gave up the will to live, after a woman failed to
Realize that a steaming cup of coffee was hot. She spilled a little in her
Lap, and was promptly awarded a huge settlement.

Common Sense was preceded in death by his parents, Truth and Trust; his
Wife, Discretion; his daughter, Responsibility; and his son, Reason. He is
Survived by his 4 stepbrothers; I Know My Rights, I Want It Now, Someone
Else Is To Blame, and I’m A Victim.

Not many attended his funeral because so few realized he was gone. If you
Still remember him, pass this on. If not,
Join the majority and do nothing.

 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 16:51:08

Tomorrows data release that will have more impact on our well being but less impact on the markets than unemployment fudged figures.

Australian Trade balance with import and export data.
Australian Retail sales data and Australian Retail Sales ex inflation

New Zealand Business Confidence.

Japanese Housing Starts and Japanese Construction Orders

Swiss Consumer Price Index

German Unemployment Rate

Eurozone CPI July

Eurozone Unemployment Rate June

Canada GDP May.

Comment by vozworth
2008-07-30 18:27:23

cmon hozzie spill it…

I am sure you cant recall my last couple of meltup plays, but SOV/PTRY were the key note speakers on my Indymac failure “get in while they all panic”…I told you the ideas were brewing..

gimme something trade-able. I’ll give you one ping, but one ping only…

The Mervins/Bennigans consumer is dead trade is, wait you’re not gonna believe it….long Macy’s/short Apple . I knew you would not believe me…..well kids are gonna get clothes, but they have to wait for the pods till christmas, but christmas isnt coming this year, again; however, back to school comes around every year…and this one is gonna be better than Christmas with the deep disounts to move the merch.

Jeez, even I went to JC Penney this week to get two pair of jeans for 28 dollars. I havent bought a 14 dollar pair of jeans since I was in grade school wearing double-knee Husky-pants.

Comment by vozworth
2008-07-30 19:12:38

it could be long “specific oversold quality soft-retailer” and short “apple/applebes”…. just a thought I brewed up,at home, not dining out, cell phone off, cooking dinner, but getting decent clothing at a discount…and surfing the intertubes after work.

use this information however you wish.

Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 19:39:26

Farm and Fleet - $10/pr.

Carharts $29

If my other post ever shows up ADRs available.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-07-30 19:14:02

its the last of the stimulus moneys……its the hot money.

Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 19:34:29

SWEDBANK AB ORD SHS
http://www.swedbank.com/sst/inf/out/infOutWww1/0,,112990,00.html

Short it and relax. The bank is toast.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/

The finest financial analyst John Hempton’s blog.

This position is suitable for me , myself and I and may be unsuitable for any other mope as stupid as me that puts money in Lars family home country! Trusting Lars family with money is a guaranteed way to be paying the bar tab.

Hope you see this Vozzie!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by vozworth
2008-07-30 20:21:19

check and mate.

you are a good egg old man.

spent the weekend camping at the Oregon Caves… you should stay at the Lodge….looks haunted, mostly Euroupeans and Canadians….suprised me. Then spent a couple of days at Gold Beach….didnt find any gold, but accomplished a hell-uva sunburn.

 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 19:43:29

The ‘hot money’ is riding on the favorite. Not a wise move when the favorite’s feed is laced with Prozac.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-07-30 19:38:17

last one hozzie:

Brazillian bond curve thingy starting to look like a bell curve.

I remember busting the curves in those Cali state schools…to be young again….

Comment by hoz
2008-07-30 20:55:47

I like curvy thingies; the problem is they run when they see me.

I am learning the Capoeira, I sit on the circle and clap my hands. Easy and I go dancing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51q1VB_dDik

If I were a recent graduate from college, I would move to Brazil in a heart beat.

 
 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-07-30 18:44:42

By Carey Gillam
54 minutes ago

TOPEKA, Kansas (Reuters) - Energy tycoon T. Boone Pickens said on Wednesday he is creating an “army” of business leaders and mainstream Americans to lobby for his plan to revamp U.S. energy policy in favor of wind power and natural gas over imported oil.

—–

I have been on board for over a year already. Anybody else give a shit? Seriously, after natgas went from 14 to 9…might wanna think about it..unless you enjoy watching arctic winter indoor ski slopes in the Middle East…maybe they can host the winter games?

On the bright side, everytime you fill a tank with regular gas….your helping young princes learn to ski.

AAAAHHHHHHHH, its good to be the king.

(apologies to Mr. Mel Brookes)

 
Comment by 41Cadillac
2008-07-30 20:55:02

The windmill will be a bust. Eventually and inevitibly drilling, drilling, and drilling will occure in the US of A off shore and on shore. Gas at the pump will drop.

All the rest of energy is talk.

Then the SUV will be back like a vengence.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 22:44:08

Wow does this column resemble a 2006 HBB post…

The Homeownership Obsession
By Robert J. Samuelson
Wednesday, July 30, 2008; Page A15

The real lessons of the housing crisis have gotten lost. It’s routinely portrayed as the financial system run amok; the housing market became a casino. The remedy, we’re told, is to enact rules that prevent a repetition. All this is partly true. But it ignores a larger truth: Our infatuation with homeownership, embedded in dozens of government policies, has turned housing — once a justifiable symbol of the American dream — into something of a national nightmare.

As a society, we’re overinvesting in real estate. We build too many McMansions. They use too much energy, and their carrying costs, including mortgage payments, absorb too much of Americans’ incomes. We think everyone should become a homeowner, when many families can’t or shouldn’t. The result is to encourage lending to weak borrowers who are likely to default. The avid pursuit of a few more percentage points on the homeownership rate (it rose from 64 percent of households in 1994 to 69 percent in 2005) has condoned enormously damaging policies.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 22:46:27

REVIEW & OUTLOOK
Mr. Paulson’s New Bonds
July 31, 2008; Page A14

These days, it’s next to impossible to sell a mortgage-backed security — unless, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, you have access to the full faith and credit of Uncle Sam. So this week Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson teamed up with four of the country’s biggest banks to jump start an alternative to securitization known as “covered bonds.”

A covered bond is a kind of halfway house between securitizing mortgages and simply holding them on bank balance sheets. With a covered bond, the bank gets the proceeds from selling the bonds now, while the investor gets the income from the mortgages. But unlike a mortgage-backed security, the bank doesn’t totally wash its hands of the mortgages if the borrowers default or get delinquent. So it’s easy to see their attraction at a time when securitization has become a dirty word.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-30 22:51:49

FASB agrees to continue turning a blind eye to ongoing accounting abuses. I guess they don’t think anyone can smell the rank aroma of elephant sh!t emanating from under the banking sector’s living room rug?

US delays accounting changes
By Paul J Davies in London and Joanna Chung in New York
Published: July 30 2008 22:38 | Last updated: July 31 2008 01:2u5

Banks have been given a one-year reprieve by US accounting standard-setters from having to take up to $5,000bn (£2,520bn) of debt assets on to their balance sheets, easing fears that they would be forced to raise large amounts of new capital quickly.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted to delay until January 2010 the introduction of rules that will force banks to consolidate more off-balance-sheet vehicles directly in their accounts.

Robert Herz, FASB chairman, said that the move was made reluctantly after a staff recommendation for a delay because there might not be enough time for all companies to adjust to the up-heaval.

“It does pain me to allow something that has been abused by certain folks, to let that go on for another year,” he said.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-31 01:56:39

Moody’s downbeat on credit market rebound
By Aline van Duyn and Joanna Chung in New York
Published: July 30 2008 18:19 | Last updated: July 30 2008 18:19

Moody’s, the second-largest credit rating agency, warned on Wednesday that it remained cautious about the prospects of a recovery in the credit markets this year and was expecting declines in structured finance revenue of over 50 per cent.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-07-31 02:04:19

DAVID WEIDNER’S WRITING ON THE WALL
The no-loss sell rule
Commentary: What if we tried a new strategy in the next six months?
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT July 31, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — What follows is not a real conversation that recently took place in the Oval Office.

Cox: But I was getting a pedicure the other day and I thought, ‘Why not just short selling?’ What about ALL selling?’ Why not make a rule that prohibits selling a stock for a price lower than the last trade. We’d stop losses altogether. Everyone would make a profit. Unlike some of these other measures you’ve heard today, it wouldn’t cost taxpayers a penny. So, what do you think of the Cox No-Loss Sale rule?

Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner, Lukken: Mr. President –

POTUS: (holds his hands up) Hold on. Hmmm. Can we call it the Bush-Cox No-Loss Sale rule?

Cox: I think so.

POTUS: Do it. Effective until Jan. 19.

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post