August 4, 2008

A Booming Market To Utter Collapse

The Star Press reports from Indiana. “How hard is it to sell a house in today’s real estate market? How about two houses? That’s the challenge facing the Cantu family. After 10 years in Muncie, Sandy and Dean Cantu are moving to Illinois. They’ve just bought a house there, in Peoria. As the Cantus and their three kids prepare for the move, they’re hoping to sell not only their own home but a house that Dean’s father lived in recently.”

“The two-story is now priced at $219,000, cut from the original asking price of $224,000, while the one-story ranch is priced at $99,000 — cut twice since the original price of $114,900. ‘We might not have dropped it if we were not moving out of state and had two homes to sell,’ Sandy Cantu said. ‘At this point, we’ve got to liquidate.’”

The Fort Wayne Business Weekly in Indiana. “Legislation signed July 30 by President George W. Bush will be good for hundreds of thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure and could help real-estate markets nationally, but the impact in northeast Indiana probably won’t be as significant, said Bob Coffee, president of the Fort Wayne Area Association of Realtors.”

“‘I’d have liked to see (an incentive) that was more immediate,’ Coffee said. For first-time home buyers, ‘the most help is needed in the down payment.’”

“Mortgage rates are up slightly and lenders also have tightened their lending standards, Coffee noted. Tighter standards for mortgage loan originators, which will eliminate some of the fly-by-night operators, should help home buyers, however.”

“‘Even in Fort Wayne, there were mortgage brokers popping up all over,’ Coffee said.”

“‘This is a market correction,’ Coffee said. ‘Real estate is cyclical. 2002 through 2007 were the five best years ever, and we’re still above 2002 levels. Some people believe that the sky is falling, but it’s really not. This is something we kind of expected to see because (the market) just couldn’t sustain the growth.’”

The Daily Herald from Illinois. “The French doors, custom windows and hardwood floors in Pamela Olander’s home are beautiful. They’re also bleeding her dry. Unable to unload the Palatine house Olander and her husband built as an investment, they’ve turned to guerrilla marketing tactics.”

“Thousands of drivers can find a pajama-clad Olander plastered on a digital billboard along Route 53, advertising an open auction that takes place at the home at noon today. ‘The idea is I’m not going to sleep until I sell this property,’ Olander said, who lives elsewhere in Palatine.”

“The original April listing price for the four-bedroom, three-bathroom house was $799,000. Today’s minimum bid is $500,000, though she’s not obligated to accept an offer. ‘This has been very taxing emotionally and financially,’ Olander said. ‘I doubt we’ll break even, so this is going to be a very costly learning experience.’”

“Olander realizes she took a gamble and lost. ‘It will be a long time to build back what we lost,’ she said. ‘It’s been a mountain of headaches, but I’m in the same boat as a lot of people.’”

The Plain Dealer from Ohio. “Officials estimate that Cuyahoga County has 20,000 vacant or abandoned lots. But now, with the population and economy slipping, some officials say building new houses on all of them would depress the values of old homes around the region by raising the supply beyond the demand.”

“‘We should have a countywide goal to tear down two houses for every new home,’ said Paul Oyaski, Cuyahoga County’s development director.”

“A couple of neighbors have begun to talk to Shaker officials about buying recently leveled property for side lots. But not everyone wants an extra lot. One neighbor who withheld her name scoffed at the idea. She said she could barely afford her current property with the city’s high taxes and strict exterior maintenance codes.”

“A few years ago, Euclid tried to interest neighbors in side lots, with no luck, said Oyaski, the city’s former mayor. Neighbors would mow the lots and use them, but none wanted the costs of owning them.”

The Leader Telegram from Wisconsin. “In the past 10 years, the value of farmland has more than doubled across Wisconsin and tripled or more in several west-central Wisconsin counties, according to a new state report.”

“In Barron County, the average value of land sold nearly tripled from $847 an acre in 1998 to $2,444 in 2007. Values also nearly tripled in Eau Claire, Buffalo and Pepin counties. Values more than tripled in Pierce County, which went from $1,249 to $4,223, the highest in the region.”

“‘People are converting farmland into residential for housing or buying it for recreational purposes for hunting,’ said Tim Jergenson, Barron County UW-Extension Agricultural department administrator. ‘It was often people out of the area that wanted that land.’”

The Capital Times from Wisconsin. “Foreclosure filings in Wisconsin continued at record levels in July. New figures released Monday show close to 14,300 foreclosure filings recorded in the first seven months of 2008, a 31 percent increase over the first seven months of 2007.”

“‘Wisconsin foreclosures have been building up to the current levels for the past three years,’ said Robert Jensen, president of ForeclosuresWI.”

“He said foreclosures averaged 11,687 a year in Wisconsin from 2003 to 2005 and rose to 16,473 in 2006 and 20,995 in 2007. At the current level of filings, more than 25,000 foreclosures are expected to be filed in the state this year.”

The Green Bay Press Gazette from Wisconsin. “Brown County had 489 homes in foreclosure in the first six months of 2008, according to a report.”

“‘When a neighborhood is struck with multiple foreclosures, like many are right now in Brown County, the potential for blight and vandalism increases, as does the potential for more lasting neighborhood decline and instability,’ said Andrew Higgins, president of the Astor Neighborhood Association.”

“The city first sends notifications to the owner of the property to take care of it and if necessary will eventually mow the lawn and charge the owner through the property tax bill. Depending on the severity, the city may condemn the building or order it be torn down, said Cheryl Renier-Wigg, Green Bay neighborhood development supervisor.”

“‘That’s the problem we are experiencing right now in the city,’ she said. ‘If a property is foreclosed on, generally the owners have left it. Often times, the lawn isn’t getting mowed or there might have been code issues with the property that are now getting worse.’”

Living Lake Country from Wisconsin. “Should Lake Country’s potential homeowners be worried? First Weber Executive VP Roger Rushman estimates that Lake Country homes had experienced five to six years of ‘tremendous highs’ but now might be suffering from a lack of appreciation. ‘Three to four years ago, if you bought a lakefront property, you knew it would appreciate,’ he said. ‘Now, it has bottomed out. You don’t see the properties appreciating like they were.’”

“‘It may seem bad because houses that were bought for $2 million may be selling for $1.8 million, but if you look at the percentage difference, it’s not that far from lesser-priced homes. The large amount of money just makes it seem worse,’ Rushman said.”

The Stillwater Courier from Minnesota. “Armed with nearly $500,000 in grants, a Lake Elmo-based organization is on Washington County’s front lines, battling the effects of a nationwide home-foreclosure epidemic. Recently, the Metropolitan Council awarded the organization a $200,000 grant so it can acquire and rehabilitate homes for resale, primarily in Cottage Grove, Forest Lake, Newport, Oakdale, St. Paul Park and Stillwater.”

“Further, the Washington County government awarded it $310,000 to ‘recapture and recreate starter homes,’ according to information from Two Rivers Community Land Trust.”

“Beyond these efforts, keeping track of housing data is crucial to the HRA’s work, said Executive Director Barbara Dacy. At the same time, the HRA sees the same opportunities as does the land trust. Now that the real estate bubble has burst, the post-foreclosure era should provide opportunities to acquire, improve and resell properties, Dacy said.”

“‘We want to document what I would call the suburban experience,’ she said. ‘In general, the problem is impacting all across the board’ in the county.”

The Pioneer Press from Minnesota. “They were high school sweethearts who grew up to be two of the most well-regarded homebuilders in the metro area, then watched their company crumble amid their own fraud and illegal borrowing.”

“Michael and Ardith Parish, the architects of what is presumed to be the largest case of mortgage fraud in Minnesota history, were sentenced Thursday in U.S. District Court in Minneapolis. Michael Parish, 63, received 13 years in federal prison or a work c his wife, Ardith, 62, received five years.”

“Their son-in-law, Christopher Troup, 40, was sentenced to 10 years for playing a lead role in the massive housing scheme, which the courts believe involved 240 homes now in various stages of foreclosure.”

“Cindy Novak, who owns a plumbing company with boyfriend Tim Olsen, told the court Thursday that the fraud has ruined her family’s financial life.”

“‘I think they should be doing life. I think they should have to sell their (home). How do they afford their Christmases?’ said Novak, a contractor who has not been paid.”

“The Parishes began to run into financial troubles about four years ago when they were unable to find buyers for their luxury-style homes, including more than 100 in New Prague and dozens in New Market and Lonsdale.”

“Rather than stop or slow construction, they kept building expansive houses worth $300,000 to $500,000, according to prosecutors and court documents.”

“In an April letter to the court, court-appointed receiver Gary Hansen painted a bleak picture of the fallout, noting that dozens of foreclosed homes were clustered together, dragging their market value an estimated $100,000 below their mortgage debt.”

“‘I believe that all residents of New Prague have been affected by this, (with) the loss of home equity totaling millions of dollars,’ said Karen Witt, a real estate broker who owns a land-development company. She told the court she was an ‘indirect victim’ of the Parish’s fraud.”

“‘I can’t sell a $150,000 house and I can’t sell a $450,000 house because of this,’ Witt said.”

The Granite City Press Record. “Homeowners facing the possibility of losing their home need to take action as soon as possible. And there is help available. That is part of the message the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is trying to get out to area homeowners as the number of foreclosures continues to rise.”

“Many homeowners who got adjustable rate mortgages had expected to refinance their homes before the lower rate expired by using their home’s value as equity. When the housing market weakened in 2006, those homes often lost enough of their worth to be valued less than the cost of the adjustable rate mortgage, leaving borrowers stuck paying more than they could afford.”

“‘It’s like a natural disaster,’ said Bill Emmons, supervisory officer and economist at the Federal Reserve. ‘It’s been a rapid turn of events. A booming market in 2006 to utter collapse today. It’s still very serious.’”

“Emmons said that after years of a highly profitable housing market, the process began to collapse in on itself in 2006. ‘Part of the problem is lending got fast and loose and a lot of borrowers got over their heads and got into overheated markets and that’s why we’re experiencing the correction,’ Emmons said.”

“‘We’ll…liaison with the homeowner and the lender service so we can figure out if the family can stay in their home, whatever the situation may be, so that family can stay in their home,’ said Chris Krehmeyer, CEO of Beyond Housing, based out of St. Louis.”

“There is no charge for the organization’s service. ‘More than half the people who get foreclosed never call anybody,’ Krehmeyer said.”

“In the mean time, the market is unlikely to stabilize again anytime soon, Emmons said. ‘This is a major, major correction that is going on and we’re not finished,’ he said.”




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53 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-08-04 08:07:26

‘2002 through 2007 were the five best years ever, and we’re still above 2002 levels.’

‘Rushman estimates that Lake Country homes had experienced five to six years of ‘tremendous highs’…‘Three to four years ago, if you bought a lakefront property, you knew it would appreciate’

‘The Parishes began to run into financial troubles about four years ago when they were unable to find buyers for their luxury-style homes…Rather than stop or slow construction, they kept building expansive houses worth $300,000 to $500,000′

‘A booming market in 2006 to utter collapse today…Emmons said that after years of a highly profitable housing market, the process began to collapse in on itself in 2006. ‘Part of the problem is lending got fast and loose and a lot of borrowers got over their heads and got into overheated markets’

Best years ever, booms, highly profitable, overheated, raw land tripling, $500,000 spec houses. Uh huh…

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-08-04 08:20:47

Yeah, booming market to utter collapse.

Do their brains just filter out the intermediate steps?

Comment by DinOR
2008-08-04 08:38:42

Notice that these HS Sweethearts may have been experiencing difficulties as far back as 2004? Gosh, sorry, I thought things were just starting to “heat up” by ‘04?

Yet they couldn’t move their OP POS ‘that’ far back? Even though these clowns deserve everything they’re going to get and then some, there ARE bigger fish to fry. I mean ’someone’ continued to lend to them?

Comment by DennisN
2008-08-04 08:49:49

Gee I found the elusive DinOR….

Hey did you hear the recent news about Tamarack? Chief investor Jean-Pierre Buttplug, now in bankruptcy, is going to sell $670 million in bonds to get the project going again.

http://www.idahostatesman.com/business/story/454671.html

Why would anyone buy bonds from that guy?

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Comment by DinOR
2008-08-04 09:49:32

Oh hey Dennis! I haven’t forgotten about that project. I get monthly reminders from a client whose former co-worker is upside down and feeding gators in that neck of the woods!

The other glaring reminder is the Bend BB where they document three rather high profile developer deaths/suicides/..”hits”? I understand the local Bend rag refuses to elaborate on their deaths. I hope we can all agree that whatever happens during the Great Unraveling that nothing is worth sucking on a shotgun barrel?

We’re on our 3rd Consecutive Non-Summer, summer in Oregon but it’s always good to hear from you! ( Now I understand why you live up there! )

 
Comment by aqius
2008-08-04 15:04:25

dennia asked a few weeks ago if anyone knew of a “dinOR” in here?

I figured it was maybe ‘ol dinOR hisself having some fun!

(privately sent dennis an email on the side offering some info if he paypaled me a $50 spot . . .)

just joking about the email but I DID ask if dennis had a good looking single sister/cousin in trade for the dirt on dinOR. but only one problem: dinOR passed his drug test, loves his mom & country, and threatened to out my collection of star wars glasses.

no speake de english.

 
 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-08-04 08:40:06

Intermediate steps of the Ponzi scheme:

Plateauing Capital Gains–>Revolutionary idea–>Conventional Wisdom–>Risk Reassignment–>Asset Reallocation–>Kaboom!

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-08-04 09:05:40

“Do their brains just filter out the intermediate steps?”

Excellent question. Here we’re seeing the price paid for choosing continued denial over acceptance and action. To us it’s a slow motion train wreck - to most it will be called a “crash”.

Comment by mikey
2008-08-04 11:44:25

I apologize if this was already posted but it seams MORE than a little extreme even for the cash strapped City of Milwaukee :)

Milwaukee man faces foreclosure because he didn’t pay parking fine. Peter Tubic ignored a $50 parking fine in 2004, and on Monday, it cost him his $245,000 house

He was physically and psychologically unable to handle the situation, he says.

According to the Social Security Administration, Tubic, 62, has been disabled since 2001. He has been diagnosed with psychological disorders that limit his “ability to understand, remember and carry out detailed instructions,” according to documents from the administration.

In addition he suffers from chronic pain caused by degenerative diseases of the knees and spine, as well as chronic respiratory disease, diabetes and obesity, among other ailments

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=779234

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Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-04 09:18:34

Some people believe that the sky is falling, but it’s really not.

Coffee is correct, the sky is not falling, but property values are falling and will continue to fall for some time. Now is not the time to buy!

 
 
Comment by robert london
2008-08-04 08:41:09

I guess things didn’t work out so well for the Palatine, IL auction:

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=225342&src=1

There is always next weekend, LOL.

Comment by Steve W
2008-08-04 10:29:36

It must be a tear-down, I checked zillow and it’s surrounded by homes that are around 1000 sq feet in size and are zillow-estimated (with all that entails) in the 200s-300s. Methinks there was a bit of a miscalculation by building a home that is, say, 4 times the size of anything else on the block.

Anyhoo, I’m SURE next weekend will work out much better for them.

Comment by Joe Schmoe
2008-08-04 10:59:28

The very idea of $800k McMansions in Palatine is sheer lunacy.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-08-04 14:19:55

Palatine has one particular style of postwar house that is very common in the older sections. They are two stories and the parking on the bottom and often below grade.

Does anyone know if that style has a name? There were tons of these and many were already in bad shape almost ten years ago. I hope no investors did a teardown McMansion amongst those type of houses - because if they did they’re asking for trouble.

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Comment by Eudemon
2008-08-04 21:14:09

Yes - they are called “raised ranches”. There’s a huge number of them throughout Chicagoland as you well know.

Some bozo couple expects to sell their abode in Palatine for $700K? Are they nuts? I wonder where they live - off Quentin maybe?

BTW - is Palatine making progress in its quest to secede from Cook County? I haven’t heard anything lately.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2008-08-04 11:07:03

You mean the pajamas didn’t work? The threat of not sleeping? Wow, maybe it’s time to consider the options.

 
 
Comment by Kim
2008-08-04 10:35:04

Thanks for the follow up. After reading Ben’s clip, I wondered how that turned out, and I am not in the least surprised it failed to sell.

I went to Woodfield Saturday night to eat dinner and the mall was packed. We were the only ones (aside from waitstaff) not carrying a shopping bag or three. I asked DH if they had cancelled the recession. Then I read in Crane’s this AM that unemployment is higher than the national average here. Go figure.

Comment by anon in DC
2008-08-04 11:23:08

Some places like DC and Northern VA have tax free shopping days for back to school. The sheeple buy buy buy ’cause of no tax. Maybe a tax holiday there ?

Comment by Steve W
2008-08-04 12:25:13

Tax Holiday? In Cook county?

Must clean up keyboard, coca-cola all over it.

Unfortunately, tragically, a tax holiday will occur here when…no, it will never happen.

Chicago’s a large enough place that there are still enough people doing well with money to spend. But look closer and you’ll see more restaurants, stores closing up. Woodfield still seems like the mecca for consumerism here.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-08-04 14:23:42

On our regular Saturday morning walk through Chicago’s north side I too noticed an unusually heavy amount of foot and motor traffic in the very same locales I observe every week. It was indeed unusual and probably the most activity I’ve seen since last summer.

 
 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-08-04 08:46:12

“Michael and Ardith Parish, the architects of what is presumed to be the largest case of mortgage fraud in Minnesota history, were sentenced Thursday in U.S. District Court in Minneapolis. Michael Parish, 63, received 13 years in federal prison or a work c his wife, Ardith, 62, received five years.”

I doubt they’ll serve more than a couple of years each. It’s good to see them going after the fraudsters at the top of the food chain. The alt-A speculators should also get jail time but seems pretty unlikely.

Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-04 09:29:05

I doubt they’ll serve more than a couple of years each.

The common myth by the public is nothing will happen or they won’t do their time and it is simply not true.

They will do about 80% of the time they were given by the judge and lose all of their property, cash and valuables. I’ve put many a person like these two behind bars and have seen firsthand what happens.

Two years in prison will make them feel like they are 80 years old and when they get out, they will have nothing!

Comment by Skip
2008-08-04 09:54:08

Well, at least they get free health care.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-08-04 10:33:46

Good ,I’m glad they will be ruined . Look at how many people they ruined financially . I remember when Keating ,(CEO of Lincoln Savings ),went to jail for misleading the public just so he could
build some stupid hotel in Arizona that was his dream . Some retired people who lost all their money killed themselves .

All these people who justify “bad acts ” because they wanted some dream of riches or whatever .These criminals don’t think they have to stick to the rules of the game ,and everybody else is a “mark” in their little scheme of life . I shutter to think how many people are running around out there that have this sort of approach to life .
To think that people thought that prices in real estate going sky high was a good thing .

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Comment by DinOR
2008-08-04 10:52:05

Housing Wizard,

I think the “Sweethearts” story shows ( in my mind anyway ) just how tempting this was? I mean here’s a couple that had been in the same bus. for years and all of a sudden it goes from “making a decent living” to ( this thing is going to be HUGE! )

When I look back to disagreements I’ve had w/ SoCalMtgGuy I’ll have to say we were both right, and we were both wrong! From the builder/dev. side, no question, instant and unfettered access to unlimited free/cheap money drove that end. For Mr. & Mrs. 2 Year Plan Flipper it was the tax advantages that drove their behavior. So there were a lot of people doing things they clearly would not have otherwise be involved in.

Would I fool around on my wife if Jessica Simpson hit on me? I don’t know. She’s never offered.

 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-04 12:02:28

just how tempting this was?

More like Greed!

 
 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-08-04 10:23:17

“The common myth by the public is nothing will happen or they won’t do their time and it is simply not true.”

Maybe. But I didn’t pull that idea out of my *ss, either.
From Wikipedia:

Leona Mindy Rosenthal Helmsley (July 4, 1920 – August 20, 2007) was a billionaire New York City hotel operator and real estate investor. She was a flamboyant personality and had a reputation for tyrannical behavior that earned her the nickname “Queen of Mean.” That image of Helmsley was sealed when a former housekeeper testified that she had heard Helmsley say: “We don’t pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes …”, a saying that became notorious and identified with her for the rest of her life. She was later convicted of federal income tax evasion and other crimes in 1989 and served 19 months in prison (and two more months under house arrest), after receiving an initial sentence of 16 years.

Michael Robert Milken (born July 4, 1946 in Encino, California) is a prominent American financier, felon and philanthropist who almost single-handedly created the market for high-yield bonds (also called junk bonds) during the 1970s and 1980s…After a plea bargain, Milken pled guilty to six securities and reporting violations. He was sentenced to ten years in prison, but was released after less than two years.

Maybe they got out early because they were born on the 4th of July?

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-08-04 10:42:26

No wonder people want to become rich ,its buys them lack of
Justice .

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Comment by Joe Schmoe
2008-08-04 11:01:11

That was almost 20 years ago. There is no longer any parole in the federal system.

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Comment by Steve W
2008-08-04 11:25:46

Except for Presidential Pardons…

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-04 12:05:18

Maybe. But I didn’t pull that idea out of my *ss, either.

I prefer case law as it represents a clearer picture of the facts.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-08-04 09:14:15

‘I’d have liked to see (an incentive) that was more immediate,’ Coffee said. For first-time home buyers, ‘the most help is needed in the down payment.’

I’d love to know what this guy’s idea of “more immediate” is. Sorry, Charlie - only the boyz get “more immediate” action.

 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-08-04 09:17:30

“A couple of neighbors have begun to talk to Shaker officials about buying recently leveled property for side lots. But not everyone wants an extra lot. One neighbor who withheld her name scoffed at the idea. She said she could barely afford her current property with the city’s high taxes and strict exterior maintenance codes.”

Here is what they have to do in close-in areas of places like Cleveland.

1) Put in a tax abatement of new housing/commercial space that effectively exempts it from all burdens from the past, such as debt, pension, and retiree health care. Otherwise, who would move there and get stuck with that burden?

2) Put in a voucher system for public education, so new residents can be assured their children would actually be educated.

3) Raise permitted density in the vincinity of mass transit corridors, and maintain the system.

Nationally, long-term, economically and socially viable pedestrian and transit-accessible places are in short supply. So there will be a market for places like Cleveland and certainly Shaker Heights, if they can become economically and socially viable.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-08-04 09:29:58

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but you do understand how much resistance those measures would meet with, don’t you? That’s esepcially the case with the first two, but number three, for all the sense it makes, won’t be a walk in the park itself.

By all means though, a city like Cleveland should try anyway. Why? Becuase their attempt would open up some very necessary discussions and lead to the posing of some very uncomfortable questions that absolutely need to be answered in the rapidly approaching future.

 
Comment by pinch-a-penny
2008-08-04 09:39:18

I would have to disagreee with mass public transit, as being economically viable. The only time that mass transit is actually somewhat efficient, is at peak usage times, when the buses, trains, and subways are full. Otherwise they are large, slow, using more energy than the equivalent of riders using cars.
What would need to change to make mass transit even remotely efficient? You would have to “wave” the business start and stop times, so that employees are actually arriving at different times. Most mass transit is used to go to work, so this would increase efficiency for getting people to work, but otherwise, the Mass transit systems are either over or under used, and both extrmes cause people to stop using the system…. Would you get on a train that is packed, full of people, and slow, with inadequate HVAC? or would you be the only one in an empty train, bus or subway?

Comment by mattR
2008-08-04 10:49:39

Well of course they are underutilized during non-peak hours. Nobody lives anywhere near them. When you drive to the mass-transit system to/from work; that’s the only time you use it. When there are stores, and clubs, and bars, and your house is near the mass-transit system, it is utilized all the time, and cars seem pointless.

The mass transit system isn’t used in this country because everyone lives where they need a car. Flight from urban areas thanks to white flight, the GI Bill, and economics.

 
Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-08-04 11:20:04

the 75% subsidy makes some think it’s profitable- good stealing

 
Comment by annata
2008-08-04 15:02:56

Ummm… Roads and cars have exactly the same problem. I doubt you’d get a favorable return on investment if you tracked road benefit vs. construction & maintenance costs only during off-peak hours.

I think there are valid reasons why mass transit is inefficient in the US, mostly because the density of population and amenities tends to be very low, even in most of the larger cities. But the “off-peak” problem is pervasive to almost every type of transportation, including car and air travel …

 
 
Comment by Skip
2008-08-04 09:58:13

According to Kunstler, high gas prices will alleviate the need to do any of those things.

 
Comment by Chris D.
2008-08-04 14:12:41

Nice ideas but you can forget about vouchers. The time was 15-20 years ago. So many teachers are within 10 years of retirement, they will go to war before you put their jobs at risk now. Besides, these teachers all live in the same area and are just as scared about the local economic conditions. But, they–just like anyone else–don’t want to take the fall. I used to want to be a teacher–loved being a junior high sub out of college–before I decided I wanted to make money. Vouchers will just create schools with administrators that are even more chicken about making tough decisions. It’ll be worse than having elected school boards! Every third parent will say, “I’ll just take my voucher elsewhere!” every time their kid doesn’t get special (meaning: coddling) treatment. That’s the problem.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-08-04 11:09:37

Since the original post talks about offbeat, er, guerilla marketing, I thought I’d share this…

Was riding my two-wheeler yesterday morn, and I passed by a property that I’ve had my eye on. Earlier this year, it was sporting a Notice of Trustee Sale on its front door. That’s Arizona-speak for “This property is about to be sold at auction on the courthouse steps.”

The auction was in June, and it looks like it wasn’t a roaring success. Why not? Because not a thing happened to the property afterward. Which tells me that there was no new owner taking possession.

More recently, the property sprouted a “for sale” sign from the agency that was repping it until a few weeks before the NOTS sign appeared on the front door. That sign now has a big yellow “Foreclosure” rider, and that’s just confirming the obvious.

But what REALLY caught my eye was the new sign that appeared next to the real estate agency sign: It’s one of those red and white jobbies from the hardware store. It says “for rent.”

So, think of it, you can rent a house that’s right next to a noisy, busy street. And it’s in foreclosure. Did I mention that it also has not one, but two boarded up windows?

Talk about having “Rent me!” written all over it.

Comment by zee_in_phx
2008-08-04 13:24:24

Hey,
here’s my opinion of what happened:
the lender is probably a local hard-money lender, who got the property when they foreclosed on the previous owner, the lender is now stuck and instead to dropping the price is working to get some cash-flow going.
Most big banks won’t go the rental route, they simply relist with a realtor, and the realtor may do some cleanup to the property, i.e trim the weeds, board up broken widows, e.t.c.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-08-04 13:38:42

The real estate agency isn’t exactly racing to fix the place up. And, if they think they’re going to find some University of Arizona students to rent to, I do wish them luck.

The kids aren’t going to rent a dump just because it’s close to campus. They’re a lot more discerning than they were a generation ago.

 
 
 
Comment by bluprint
2008-08-04 11:11:58

but I’m in the same boat as a lot of people.

I guess some people really get a lot of solace from that. I wonder why. I think it might be related to the tendency for people to have opinions reinforced based on the case that a majority (perceived or real) believe the same way.

 
Comment by climber
2008-08-04 13:24:13

“‘I’d have liked to see (an incentive) that was more immediate,’ Coffee said. For first-time home buyers, ‘the most help is needed in the down payment.’”

BS, BS, BS. When I bought my first house I had plenty of $$ in the bank. The only reason I got into the market at all was PRICE. Same went for my parent’s first house ($20k for a really nice house in 1965). When my parents got divorced interest rates were 14% the ONLY reason my newly liberated mom could buy a house was PRICE.

Down payments would not be a problem if people could afford housing. These jerks don’t even see how high prices hurt RENTERS. If your rent takes up 50% of your income, of course you can’t save for a down payment. Don’t they see that if landlords didn’t have to pay such a high PRICE for their assets rents would be lower?

Comment by Chris D.
2008-08-04 14:38:11

I hear you, brother. Great example here. My parents bought their first house for $33K in 1975. My dad, with only an Army GED, eventually made more than $33K a year. Maybe not much more and toward the end of his career. But still, he made more than the purchase price of his house in a solid middle class neighborhood! With a college degree, I make well more than twice as much as he ever did, and I’m in my 30s. A decent middle class house in a good neighborhood most places with good jobs runs $250-300K. I’d like to think I would make $300K someday, but few people ever will, so the odds are against it. So what if the price falls to $225K? We’d be happy with a stinking 1,500 sq. ft. condo…and those are even more expensive per square foot! I’d rather live like I’m rich and rent and be debt free. When people ask us how we could afford our last trip, etc. when my wife’s stays at home, I just tell them we’re spending the money we should be saving for a downpayment on their outrageously overpriced house! I refuse to be anyone’s “equity-bitch.” (My term.) At least landlords provide an honest transaction and don’t make a sucker out of you while calling it (wait for it)…”The American Dream.”

 
 
Comment by oxide
2008-08-04 13:28:04

This is a Midwestern post; so I have two a small midwestern reports.

1. Yesterday I drove out to the local orchard (peaches!) in the sticks. The roadway is one of the two-lane state numbered highways that connected the small towns. And it seemed like 1/4 of the properties were for sale. Small houses, foreclosure spec McMansions, 20+ acre estates, and land parcels commericals or residential of all sizes from 0.5 to 500 acres. Oh, and at least 10 trucks/vans/SUVs parked right next to the road, also for sale.

2. Checked the condo listings in my middle-class hood. 1000-sq-ft condos are going to ~80K now. These condos are very close in size and age of my $700 apartment. We’re getting close to the 100-120 rent equation here. It’s the new housing that’s stupidly priced.

 
Comment by ConnKaren
2008-08-04 13:41:44

I thought I would share this study confirming what many commenters know intuitively. Owning a home is not always a gateway to wealth accumulation. Homeownership is the price of admission in many towns with better schools though because almost no rental housing exists in some of those towns.

Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2008-08-04 14:08:54

DING…DING…DING………

ConnKaren, you are a winner!!!
You speak the plain truth that the development of rentals, leads to Section 8 and the inevitable”public housing”, which leads to the dregs of the country coming into your school system.

Government housing programs invite degradation of neighborhoods and public accomodations.

Glad you see it. Avoid the growth of any apartment buildings that could lead to calls for “affordable housing” or could be used for HUD programs for the “disadvantaged” and you will have good schools and neighborhoods.

Thanks for your insight.

Comment by ConnKaren
2008-08-05 06:52:43

I think you’ve misunderstood. It’s the abhorrence of renters that has helped get us into this mess. The lack of real housing choice in every community has meant that for any family with school-age kids there has sometimes been an “irrational” desire to buy into a “good-school” community when renting would make more economic sense in the lifetime of the family.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2008-08-04 14:40:13

Owning a home is not always a gateway to wealth accumulation.

Yep. In fact, it’s the exact reverse. Wealth accumulation is the gateway to owning a home. If you can accumulate enough wealth for a down payment, you’re responsible enough to become wealthy. It’s not the house itself, it’s YOU.

 
 
Comment by ConnKaren
 
Comment by aqius
2008-08-04 15:19:41

kind of excited today to discover Obama shares my birthday. only one year difference too!

ok, you all can stop pretending to not throw that big surprise party. already saw the new mercedes out front. actually a porsche fan but boy-howdy those new mercs look slick.

you guys are the best!!

 
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