The Housing Bubble

The Sun Sentinel reports from Florida. “For South Florida’s sluggish housing market, one word became shorthand for the magic elixir to get buyers and sellers on the move again: portability. Gov. Charlie Crist predicted it would spark a ’sonic boom’ in home buying. But the state’s home turnover rate of 3 percent is the lowest in years, state economists said in a newly released report.”

“Analysts say any portability-fueled boost in home sales was swamped by stronger forces pulling down the real estate market in Florida and nationwide: crumbling home prices, tightening credit standards and a wave of foreclosures.”

“‘Unfortunately, the credit crunch hit at the same time as portability,’ said John Mike, president of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches. ‘If we weren’t experiencing that, portability would be really, really impressing people. It will work for us yet, I’m utterly convinced of that.’”

From WTVJ 6 in Florida. “The foreclosure rates in Broward and Miami-Dade counties increased dramatically between 2006 and 2007. In Miami-Dade County, 9,814 homes were foreclosed in 2006 and 26,931 were foreclosed in 2007. The foreclosure rate in Broward County went from 516 homes in 2006 to 3,616 in 2007.”

“Deerfield Beach resident Dino Lapena said the property next door to his has not been cared for since its foreclosure and he is worried about his own property.”

“‘This is a nice neighborhood, but now there’re so many homes for sale,’ Lapena said. ‘A house was sold, beautiful house, for $180,000, a neighbor. That house was (worth) $300,000. Nobody buys no more.’”

The Herald Tribune from Florida. “My recent column about the war of words between the presidents of the state’s banking and mortgage-broker trade associations brought this reaction from Bradenton appraiser Jeff Deuitch, owner of Manatee Appraisal Service.”

“‘I do have to agree (with the bankers) that a higher proportion of mortgage brokers are unscrupulous than bankers,’ Deuitch wrote in an e-mail.”

“‘In my experience, a phone call from a mortgage broker requesting an appraisal for a residential property would nearly always include language about us guaranteeing that a property would achieve some kind of minimum value prior to granting the appraisal assignment,’ said Deuitch.”

“‘During the 2003-05 period, I was fielding one to two calls per day of this type. Clearly, mortgage brokers would try to influence appraisers. In my experience, this was more than just a widespread practice — it was nearly ubiquitous amongst small mortgage brokers.’”

“‘It is not to say that this did not occur with banks. If you research the incidents that have resulted in Andrew Cuomo’s pressure on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, you will see a good example of a large firm that has been accused of pressuring appraisers to ‘hit’ predetermined values via their large, third-party, vendor-management company.’”

The Jax Daily Record from Florida. “According to figures released June 25 by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban development and the U.S. Census Bureau, 512,000 new single-family homes were sold in May of this year. That number is 40.3 percent below the number of homes sold in May 2007.”

“The data confirmed what has been known by developers who aren’t developing and real estate agents who aren’t listing because nobody’s buying so nobody’s selling.”

“The effects of the real estate slump are also being felt by attorneys who practice in the area of real estate law. ‘Compared to a year ago, my real estate practice is only a third of what it was,’ said Bryan Goode of DiRito Goode Dempsey at Jacksonville Beach.”

“Obviously closings are down but our firm is diversified so we’re focusing on other areas like wills, trusts, probate and commercial litigation. We’re continuing to pursue real estate but we’ve got to watch our overhead,” he added.

Bill Ryan of Ryan and Marks has been practicing since 1972 and said, ‘Every now and then we see a blip and think it’s going to get better but then the blip disappears.’”

“Crabtree & Fallar’s Randy Crabtree has also watched his practice change with the real estate market. ‘Our market is down 75 percent. I went through the high interest rates in the ‘70s and the depreciation in the ‘80s and the lean periods in the ‘90s but I’ve never seen anything like this before. I think the sub-prime loans are the main factor in the current dynamic. It has caused investors to have no faith in the mortgage companies.’”

“Crabtree also has no idea as to when the market will turn around but did predict, ‘It could be an astronomical collapse if something isn’t done to get things going again.’”

“‘But even if you could get land at zero cost, you can’t build right now for a price anyone can afford. And even if interest rates were at 0 percent, nobody would make any money so the system wouldn’t work. It’s like a tornado. Everything we knew about real estate is no longer true,’ Crabtree said.”

The Post & Courier from South Carolina. “Outspoken local real estate observer Brad Runbaken has his worries about the Charleston housing market but also sees some positive signs.”

“‘The Charleston foreclosure market is growing and let’s all hope it does not become as large as certain parts of California and Florida,’ he says in a second quarter report on the local real estate outlook. At the same time, ‘There are very good deals out there if you look,’ Runbaken says.”

“Runbaken says there is a ’shadow inventory in Charleston’ that does not show up in the Multiple Listing Service figures. He’s especially concerned about $500,000 or higher valued homes due to high inventory and jumbo loan rates.”

“‘I feel we are exiting what has been a 20-year cycle of low interest rates and we all know the impact interest rates have on the price and financing of homes,’ he says.”

The Sun News from South Carolina. “The prices of condominiums sold on the Grand Strand continued falling in July as did the amount of condo inventory, according to the monthly Coastal Carolinas Association of Realtors report.”

“The median condo price fell to $149,000 in July. That’s 16 percent less than its peak this year at $177,500 in March and down 20 percent from July 2007.”

“What’s promising for condo sellers is that the number of condos on the market also dropped in July. But just because inventory is going down doesn’t mean the property is selling, said real estate broker Eddie Marshall.”

“Some of his clients, unwilling to budge on their prices, have thrown in the towel for the time being, he said.”

“‘Some obviously sell, and then others, when they’ve been on the market for a while, the sellers just decide to take them off the market,’ Marshall said. ‘When the prices go down, some of the sellers just will not accept that. They won’t accept the reality that they’re going to sell for less.’”

“Sales remained sluggish in July at 263 condos sales and 267 single-family house sales, down 22 percent and 35 percent from July 2007, respectively.”

“‘It’s discouraging on the sales numbers, that they’re not rebounding,’ said Tom Maeser, market analyst for the Coastal Carolinas Association of Realtors. ‘It’s down a little more than last year was down, and last year was a slow market.’”

The Independent Mail from South Carolina. “Twenty years ago, the Anderson County Master in Equity’s Office handled as few as eight foreclosure cases a month. Today it’s not unusual to have 80 to 100 foreclosure sales in a month.”

“Housekeeper Joyce Lusk found herself unemployed after business slowed at Oconee Memorial Hospital. A series of migraines kept the 59-year-old from working, and soon she was five months behind on her mortgage.”

“Lusk said she asked her lender to move payments to the end of her mortgage or drop her monthly bill to $600 until she was earning a steady income. The lender was unwilling to do either, and now she’s facing foreclosure.”

“‘I don’t understand why they don’t want to work with me,’ Lusk said. ‘Why do they want to take the house when the house is going to sit there for God knows how long?’”

“Elaine Worzala, director of Clemson University’s Center for Real Estate Development, was interviewed by National Public Radio at the height of lenders’ aggressiveness. She remembers advising people to rent, but says her efforts couldn’t overcome the hype about the need to own and how you can’t lose in real estate.”

“‘What’s sad is that people were trying to tell the financial community and were trying to tell borrowers, but it was like a feeding frenzy, and they didn’t want to hear it,’ Worzala said.”

The Charlotte Observer from North Carolina. “Statewide, N.C. foreclosure filings were up 19 percent through June, compared with the first six months of last year, according to Observer analysis of state data. These filings mark the start of foreclosures. Filings this year could top 60,000, an increase of more than 10,000 from last year’s historic high.”

“‘Foreclosures have a cascading effect on the community,’ said Mark Pearce, N.C. deputy commissioner of banks. ‘We’re trying to prevent that cycle from feeding on itself.’”

“So far this year, foreclosure counselor Kerri Roseman has worked with 216 people fighting to save their homes. That’s one-third more than she saw all of last year.”

“‘Some of the people don’t have enough money with gas and food prices going up,’ said Roseman, who works for Prosperity Unlimited, a nonprofit serving the Charlotte area. ‘I see people who lost their jobs, people whose interest rates have gone up, some who just had bad budgeting.’”

“The North Carolina coast also is seeing a spike in foreclosure activity. Dare County, stretching along the Outer Banks, has the highest foreclosure filing rate, more than double the Mecklenburg rate. The rate - foreclosure filings per 1,000 people - is 24 in Dare versus 10.5 in Mecklenburg. More than half the county’s houses are owned by non-residents, many as vacation homes or investment properties.”

“Those second-home properties are where Charles Evans, a real estate attorney in Dare County’s Manteo, said he is seeing the foreclosures.”

The Star News from North Carolina. “Lesley Whitman is from Wayne County, but when she accompanied her husband to Wilmington on Thursday, she shopped at the Goodwill store on Kerr Avenue while he attended a meeting at work.”

“They’re feeling the pinch of high gas prices and they’re worried about the economy. They’re not alone. Becky Lytle, a spokeswoman for Goodwill Industries of Eastern North Carolina, said sales this summer were below last year’s, which she blamed on the economy. People who had shopped there as often as several times a day are now coming in less often, although they still come.”

“Local Salvation Army Maj. Butch Mallard said he’s seen an upturn in the number of customers at the two Salvation Army stores in Wilmington and another in Southport, and he’s definite about the reason.”

“‘As the economy worsens, people are looking to save any way they can,’ he said. ‘You’ve got people coming in who never shopped at a thrift store before. … They tell me they’re having rough times and are having to save where they can.’”

“Whitman, the Wayne County teacher, said she and her husband live a comfortable life - they own a vacation trailer in Oriental, a 19-foot boat, a newly installed in-ground pool, another lot in the country. But they’re feeling the pinch of high gas prices and, being parents, they feel vulnerable to any economic weakness.”

“‘We’re living the American dream,’ she said. ‘But it’s hard to have the American dream anymore with the economy being what it is.’”