The Housing Bubble

The Rocky Mountain News reports from Colorado. “One out of every four previously owned homes purchased in the Denver area during the heart of the summer sales season was a foreclosure. And in Adams County, one out of every two homes closed from mid-June to the end of July was a foreclosure sold by a bank or other lender, according to Boulder economist Michael Kone.”

“One thing Kone is noticing is a rise in more expensive homes being lost to lenders. ‘When I looked at this stuff a year back, there was not a lot of pain in the upper-price points,’ Kone said. ‘It is a little concerning seeing this spread of foreclosure into the higher-price bands.’”

“For example, in Arapahoe County, 22.2 percent of the foreclosures were homes priced from $400,000 to $499,999. That doesn’t surprise Sarah Hays of Metro Property Brokers. She is listing about 25 foreclosed homes, priced from $500,000 to $575,000.”

“‘The $575,000 home in Castle Rock sold for about $850,000 two years ago,’ Hays said.”

“Lou Barnes of Boulder West Financial Services, and other experts, said there are so many distressed properties being listed for sale in the Denver area that they are driving down home prices for the entire market.”

“The trend is keeping people who don’t have to sell their homes from putting them on the market.”

“‘I can imagine a husband and wife sitting around the breakfast table and one spouse says, ‘Do you think we should sell our home?’ I can imagine one spouse getting a coffee mug thrown at them,’ Barnes said.”

“Jay Sandstrom of Century 21 Advantage Plus estimated that 35 percent to 40 percent of the approximately 26,000 unsold homes on the market are either bank- owned, in some stage of foreclosure, or otherwise distressed. His general advice to clients is not to sell in today’s market if you don’t need to.”

The Pueblo Chieftain from Colorado. “Permits to build new houses in Pueblo County have plummeted in 2008 due to the housing slowdown and the lack of additional soldiers that had been expected at Fort Carson in Colorado Springs.”

“Using 2002 as a more typical year for home sales, Ted Jones, chief economist for Stewart Title of Colorado, said Pueblo actually has a normal home sales rate when compared to job and unemployment numbers.”

“Many real estate professionals don’t realize that because they’re new and don’t know how the market was before 2002. ‘If you entered the business after 2002, all you had to do was sit back and take orders and make money,’ Jones said. ‘We were fat cats.’”

“The low interest rates enacted by Alan Greenspan when he was chief at the Federal Reserve made real estate into a ‘get-rich-quick scheme,’ Jones said.”

The Arizona Daily Star. “Pulte Homes’ Red Rock Village, the ambitious, 4,000-lot project in Pinal County opened about a year and a half ago. Several families who moved into Red Rock since last fall said they are happy with their decision, even though Pulte has cut home prices - effectively lowering their property values - and commuting has gotten more expensive.”

“‘This house was a really good deal,’ said Jeremy Willistein, 26 who paid $165,000 for a 1,300-square-foot entry-model home last year.”

“Now after price decreases, the starting price is $129,000, and Pulte is working on a new floor plan that would be priced even lower, said Shawn Chlarson, division president for Pulte.”

“During the housing boom, Pinal county saw some of the state’s most rapid increases in development - and now it’s suffering from some of the worst of the crash. ‘There will come a bust in every boom,’ said Bill Bridwell, a Casa Grande real estate broker. ‘Everything just got out of control.’”

“Bridwell said it’s only a matter of time until the slower market catches up to Red Rock, and foreclosures show up there, too. ‘Their houses are worth less today than what they owe on them, the same as everybody else’s,’ Bridwell said.”

“At the current sales pace, it may take up to 10 years before Red Rock is built out, Chlarson said. It will probably be at least two years until development can support a convenience store, he said.”

“‘I can’t even get a coffee and a newspaper in the morning,’ said Michael Tarr, 40, who paid about $200,000 for an 1,800-square-foot home last fall.”

The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “For the second quarter, the median resale home price in Pinal County was $143,100, down from $156,160 in the first quarter and way down from $220,000 in the fourth quarter of 2005, according to the latest report from Arizona State University.”

“Shawn Stagg, a real estate agent in Mesa…has sold houses in Johnson Ranch for about five years. Banks want to liquidate as soon as possible and are willing to sell the houses strictly at fair market value, he said. That makes it hard for homeowners to sell a property at anything above that, he said.”

“‘It’s pretty dismal now,’ Stagg said. ‘The last time I checked … there was a considerable amount of homes in Johnson Ranch for sale, and I’d say probably 60 percent of those are probably either short sale or bank-owned.’”

“Housing values have plummeted across much of Johnson Ranch, Stagg said.”

“‘People who purchased when the market was really high, they’ve definitely taken a 40 percent hit,’ he said. ‘Most of what’s selling out there now are the single-family, 1,600-square-foot or less homes, and some of them are starting to go for like $90,000.’”

The Arizona Republic. “With more affordable homes entering the rental market, apartment complexes are struggling to sign leases. Between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, median rents in metro Phoenix’s median rent dropped 9.3 percent to $939, according to apartment-research firm Investment Instruments Corp. It was the steepest decline reported in the 12 largest U.S. metro areas.”

“‘The single-family rentals are impacting our ability to rent apartments because they are directly competitive,’ said Mike Clow, senior VP for property management at Gray Clow Residential, which owns luxury apartment complexes in Phoenix and Tempe.”

“Nicholas Ingle, director of capital markets for Phoenix-based Hendricks and Partners, the nation’s largest apartment-sales and research firm, estimates that nearly 9,000 homes are currently in the rental market, far higher than the usual 1,000-2,000.”

“‘So many of those owners are just desperate to rent them for whatever rent they can get,’ Ingle said. ‘Those homes should be renting for so much more money.’”

“Compounding that rental situation is the influx of condominium conversions back into the rental market. ‘We still have an oversupply of failed and broken condo conversions and most of the condo conversion units are rentals,’ said Pete TeKampe, VP, investments for Marcus& Millichap. ‘North Scottsdale actually has experienced very high vacancy rates because of the oversupply of condo-conversion units.’”

The Kingman Daily Miner from Arizona. “The ‘Kingman secret,’ as coined by Mayor John Salem, is officially out. Kingman was the subject of a feature published in the New York Times Sunday, which highlights the city’s current and future potential as a destination for large Las Vegas-based developers.”

“Both Chris Stevens of Rhodes Homes and Leonard Mardian of the Mardian Group were interviewed for the article. Times reporter Steve Friess writes how both of the developers are unconcerned with the downturn in the housing market, “even as Las Vegas and Phoenix suffer some of the nation’s highest foreclosure rates and steepest home-value declines.”

“In the article, Mardian predicts an additional million people will migrate to the region over the next decade, then asks rhetorically, ‘Where are they going to live?’”

“Mayor Salem elaborated on a few points he was quoted on in the article and sought to clarify Friess characterization of him as a mayor ‘who won election … on a platform of being friendlier to developers. ‘That’s not entirely true,’ Salem said.”

“Salem said while he believes growth is inevitable for Kingman, it is still important for that growth to be planned out accordingly. ‘People are going to come no matter what,’ he said.”

The Las Vegas Sun from Nevada. “Buddy Yates sits at a dining room table awash in paperwork. Within one block of his home, more than a half-dozen residences are bank-owned or in some stage of the foreclosure process, according to Realty Trac, a Web site that maintains a nationwide database of foreclosed homes.”

“Like his neighbors, Yates was hit by a slumping economy and falling real estate values.”

“Last year, his income started to shrink. As it was getting harder for Yates to pay his $300,000 mortgage, the value of his home was dropping, and as a result he couldn’t refinance his loan. Three weeks ago, Yates met his new neighbors, who had just purchased the house next door out of foreclosure for $167,000.”

“His Texas-based lender, EMC…said that Yates was offered a fair deal that would allow him to keep his home. But Yates, who has missed more than one payment, said the repayment plan would put him only further behind.”

“Yates has asked a nonprofit housing counseling group, for assistance. If he doesn’t get a reprieve, he said, he’s expecting a letter this month saying the company will foreclose on his home.”

“‘When they sold you the home, they knew (with the adjustable interest rate), you weren’t going to be able to make the payment,’ Yates said. ‘They don’t have compassion for the family who’s in the home.’”

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “The shutdown of Boyd Gaming Corp.’s $4.75 billion Echelon resort will have a far-reaching effect on Southern Nevada’s economic climate - both good and bad - analysts and economists say. ‘It’s like going through the North Atlantic during iceberg season,’ said Keith Schwer, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research. ‘We’re just not seeing everything yet.’”

“Boyd Gaming announced Aug. 1 that it was mothballing the 5,000-room Strip resort being built on the 64-acre site formerly occupied by the Stardust. The shutdown pulled 800 construction workers off the job.”

“Schwer acknowledged it was hard to see some of the bad times coming - especially the explosive energy costs. ‘The housing market was getting worse and the big mistake everybody made was not realizing the fallout that would occur, but oil prices were seemingly difficult to predict,’ Schwer said.”

“The postponement of Echelon Resorts is likely to put more strain on the Las Vegas housing market. The housing industry was counting on the creation of thousands of jobs with the opening of new resorts to help lift the market out of its doldrums of the past two years.”

“‘It is evident that the Las Vegas economy is slowly contracting,’ says Josh Seime, manager of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas division. ‘The Las Vegas economy may be on slightly more shaky ground than the nation as the region’s economy does not have a wide diversity of economic drivers.’”

“The increase in sales of existing homes since January is because of sales of bank-owned properties, Seime says. As for the condo market, closings have dropped below new starts in the past two quarters.”

“Vacant lots have remained stable since the beginning of 2007, Seime says. In the 12 months ending in June, they have declined 1.4 percent, for a total of 31,193 lots at the end of June, a 48.3-month supply, he says.”

The Reno Gazette Journal from Nevada. “While the first homeowners have yet to move in, 40 percent of the 370 units in the Montage condominiums have been sold — proof that there’s a niche for luxury housing in downtown Reno, says developer Fernando Leal.”

“At the Montage, housing will range from penthouses priced at up to $2.6 million to one and two-bedroom units and lofts ranging from $320,000 to $975,000, and studios starting at $245,000.”

“In all, he said no more than 500 units are for sale at the Montage as well as other downtown condominiums. An economic consultant hired by the Reno Redevelopment Agency has projected sales of about 200 condos a year in downtown Reno to buyers who are primarily young professionals or empty nesters seeking an escape from suburbia.”

“If that’s so, that means a standing inventory of no more than two years for downtown condos, which Leal said is hardly an overbuilt market.”

“‘I believe in this town. How often do you get to be a Daniel Burnham?’ Leal said, of Burnham, a renowned city planner of Chicago, where Leal built his first projects.”

“Tumbleweeds are popping up on the edges of nearly 200 acres cleared along U.S. 395 in the North Valleys, a sign of the continuing housing slump that has stalled a number of major developments in the Reno-Sparks area.”

“‘We built too fast, too long. Then all of a sudden, the bottom fell out,’ said Tom Gallagher of Summit Engineers said of developments in the Reno-Sparks area.”

“Looking at all construction in Reno over the past 10 years, the slide is even worse. Vern Kloos, a Reno senior planner, said the steep downturn was bound to happen after four years of $1 billion in permits.”

“‘You can’t sustain that. It was just like the dot-com crash. Everything goes in cycles,’ he said. ‘It was crazy. We were hiring consultants to help us. Developers wanting everything done in five minutes. A lot of them overextended and went belly up.’”

“Brian Kaiser, real estate analyst at the Center for Regional Studies at the University of Nevada, Reno, is not convinced the worst is over.”

“‘The rate of descent has certainly changed. We’ve got to be nearing that point,’ he said. ‘But I have to believe we will be scraping along the bottom for another year or more. Sales are still in the toilet. Pricing is still down.’”

“Summer weather typically brings a bustle of activity at residential development sites. But for Sunset Bluffs, the whir of construction machines and the busy hammering of workers seem like a distant memory.”

“Sunset Bluffs is just one of several residential developments that have defaulted in an area hit especially hard by the housing downturn.”

“With property values plummeting and demand for houses cooling after reaching a peak in 2005, Sunset Bluffs, like many developments in the Truckee Meadows, is in financial trouble.”

“At least five businesses that did contracting and subcontracting work for the development have filed more than $1.2 million in liens for unpaid services. The largest was a lien for more than $952,000 filed last year by Jess Arndell Construction. The developer’s failure to honor financial commitments ruined the local construction company, said Mark Simons, attorney for Jess Arndell Construction.”

“‘(Jess Arndell) essentially trusted and believed the developers were going to pay him, and he ended up carrying way too much debt,’ Simons said. ‘Now subcontractors have a half-million dollars worth of claims filed against him, and they’re demanding to be paid. He was in business for 35 years with tons of projects around here … . Now, he can’t afford to do business anymore. It’s been devastating.’”

“‘Our sales are off, and we’ve been making adjustments for two years in anticipation of the downturn,’ said Jim Dickey, credit manager of Western Nevada Supply. ‘It’s certainly the worst market I’ve seen in 26 years.’”

“Even putting a lien on a developer’s land or property to attempt to collect money owed doesn’t guarantee that a subcontractor will get that money. Given the steep declines seen in property values, the developments are no longer worth enough to cover all their associated expenses.”

“‘If the property isn’t worth anything, then the lien isn’t worth anything,’ Dickey said.”