April 14, 2006

Buyers ‘Sit, Wait And Watch’ The Housing Bubble Pop

The Wall Street Journal looks at the housing bubble in resort towns. “As real-estate prices surged across most of America, some of the biggest gains swept coastal resorts. Now there are signs the tide has finally turned. In Ocean City, N.J., the median price fell 7% in March from a year before. Sellers in Ocean City, a densely populated barrier island with a long boardwalk and broad beaches, have cut prices as their properties languish.”

“Bill Beible had listed his four-bedroom, two-bath condominium for $1.35 million last spring. After getting no takers, he cut the price to $1.25 million. So last week he cut again, to $1.059 million, down 28% from his initial price. ‘I wish I had priced it lower from the beginning,’ he says.”

“Some real-estate agents have started cutting prices on their own homes. Broker John Melton listed his 10-year-old house in Bend, Ore., for $549,000 in December; now he’s lowered the price to $524,000. In Naples Fl., Al Lazzaro cut the price twice on his four-bedroom lakeside house, to $699,000 from $747,000, after getting dozens of email blasts every day from fellow agents shouting, ‘owner motivated.’”

“On Cape Cod, the total number of homes for sale has risen 62% since this time last year. The dearth of buyers means sellers must consider every offer, even if it gives them little profit, says agent Jim Kalweit in the Cape Cod town of Hyannis, Mass. ‘Offers that would have been an insult a year ago are now being accepted,’ he says.”

“In Naples, inventory levels have reached a 21-month supply. That’s about three times the supply at this time last year. ‘We’re flooded with inventory,’ says Tripp Champion, a Naples real-estate agent. He represents a German buyer who’s just slashed the price of his four-bedroom mansion three blocks from the beach by 15%, to $3.3 million.”

“The market for Santa Barbara properties under $5 million is weakening; agent Nell Eakin says the price of one of her listings was just reduced by $315,000, to $2.5 million. Erik Eyman couldn’t snag a tenant for his three-bedroom ocean-view house, which he estimates is worth about $1.7 million, until he lowered the monthly rent to $2,900 from $3,500. He says that over the last few months, both selling prices and rents (are) softening now.”

“The number of single-family homes sold in Bend, Ore. last month fell 28% from a year earlier. Sellers are getting the message. On one street in Bend, a seller dropped his asking price by $40,000, to $1.359 million, after less than two months on the market; down the street, another house has gone to $998,000 from $1.033 million.”

“The fact that some sellers are trimming prices has made some buyers wary. Nancy Rawls, a hospital-benefits coordinator, is looking to buy a two-bedroom vacation condo in Pensacola, Fla., but thinks prices may continue soften through the summer as inventory levels build. ‘You have to sit, wait and watch,’ she says.”




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102 Comments »

Comment by Inspired
2006-04-14 07:46:20

Well Ben, this article paints with a broad brush!
I thought the experts said, 1 and done, and spring (March it will turn araound? Looks like Oreogan has joined the frey!

Comment by DinOR
2006-04-14 10:28:43

Inspired,
Indeed Oregon has jumped in with both feet! About time too! Bend has gotten ridiculous, everyone there is either a builder, realtor or mort. bkr. There is NO employment to speak of unless you want to work in a tire recapping plant (about 25 miles away) or the hotel industry. It’s all vacation/2nd/investment homes. I’ve heard over 75% of the buyers are from CA, but of course if CA’s bubble burts that won’t have any effect on us.

Comment by rms
2006-04-14 22:51:04

Bend, OR is terribly over priced, and it will fall on very hard times when the music stops. The median home v. median wage has been stretched beyond fantasy limits. What has everyone been thinking?

 
 
 
Comment by hd74man
2006-04-14 07:46:26

RE: Coastal living-Joke’s on the shorefront seller’s…

Last summer numerous beaches in the Northeast were closed at various times for fairly extended periods due to serious water contamination from e-Coli bacteria…that’s human “TURDS”, people.

Overtaxed sewer systems with direct discharging from treatment plants; failed private septics; and too many yachts dumpin’ their porta-pottys right offshore are the major culprits.

Ugh…

Sure not an environment I’d want to spend my $$$ for…

Comment by Waiting to Pounce
2006-04-14 08:11:06

Also, the Hamptons have one of the highest breast cancer rates in the country due to radioactive leakage into the water table from Brookhaven National Labs and also the Connecticut Millsone facility a short distance across the sound.

See http://www.radiation.org/journal/nuclink_sept14.html (WHY CANCER RATES IN THE HAMPTONS ARE SO HIGH). The NYC media are heavily pressured by the real estate advertisers and also many of their brass have huge investments in the Hamptons so there has been a shameful cover up). Everyone out there buys bottled water. They will shower with the tap and fill their pools. But they won’t drink it.

And yes, if NY bathers had any idea how much human fecal matter is blended into their ocean broth, they’d get sick.

Why do you think even places like Acabonic have been closed in the past to shellfishing?

 
Comment by death_spiral
2006-04-14 08:22:19

TIME TO TORPEDO THE YACHTS!

Comment by east beach
2006-04-14 08:49:09

I actually like your loose-cannon comments spiral, keep them up. The bubble has driven us all to madness :-)

 
 
Comment by steinravnik
2006-04-14 09:32:35

Northeastern beaches have to be among the worst. It is truly mind blowing that anyone would pay that kind of money for crap.

http://www.novabubble.blogspot.com

Comment by Portland, Mainer
2006-04-14 09:38:41

The beaches in Maine are pretty pristine. We don’t worry about what’s in our ocean water, but rather what’s not in it - WARMTH!

 
 
 
Comment by Portland, Mainer
2006-04-14 07:46:30

“Bill Beible had listed his four-bedroom, two-bath condominium for $1.35 million last spring. Mr. Beible, a manufacturing executive who bought the place in 2003 for $725,000, admits the price was a bit steep, but other homes like his had sold in a matter of days.

Mr. Beible now says he aimed too high. After getting no takers, he cut the price to $1.25 million. A buyer materialized, but asked for concessions — and then backed out. When Mr. Beible relisted the condo late last year he dropped the price to $1.195 million, but didn’t get any offers. So last week he cut again, to $1.059 million — down 28% from his initial price. “I wish I had priced it lower from the beginning,” he says”.

It sounds as though this seller let greed get the best of hime and then chased the declining market with price cuts that were too little, too late. At a point you run out of people with this kind of money. It’s the same reason the Forbes 400 isn’t made up of any Amway distributors.

 
Comment by goleta
2006-04-14 07:53:17

PITI for that $1.7M home is over $12K/month and no one would rent it untill the rent dropped to $2,900. Renting is the way to save money and enjoy good life!

Comment by TRich
2006-04-14 08:10:47

I’m not sure when that owner bought it, but hopefully for him it wasn’t anytime recently- that’s over 9k of negative cashflow a month.

I’m beginning to think, and people like Nancy Rawls, will agree, that life’s too short to hemorage cash for the “benefits of ownership” thus adding significant stress, strain and hardship to your life. The cost of renting is SO much cheaper in these bubble areas that it is absolutely insane to buy right now.

No thank you, I’ll keep my money, happiness, and sanity and wait this massive gambling mentality out.

 
Comment by DC_Too
2006-04-14 08:52:43

$2,900 for a $1.7 million house is astounding. I’m ata loss for words….

Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-04-14 09:22:22

“$2,900 for a $1.7 million house is astounding. I’m ata loss for words…”

Agreed. But with a HUGE caveat. Look closely at the wording:
“Erik Eyman couldn’t snag a tenant for his three-bedroom ocean-view house, which he ESTIMATES is worth about $1.7 million” (capitalization mine)

who knows how he got that estimation. I can estimate that my house is also worth 1.7 mill… but comps in my area would only support $450k in the best of times (last year), certainly less now.

That said, it is astounding if one could rent a place for $2900 if it ever appraised for anywhere near $1.7 mill!

Clouseau

Comment by DC_Too
2006-04-14 09:24:55

Good point. Fair value for a $3000 rental should be in the $450K range…

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Comment by goleta
2006-04-14 09:34:40

The reason is the home is in SB. I have never seen a SB home with ocean view priced below $2M.

 
Comment by scdave
2006-04-14 10:24:05

Well lets see;….Ca. tax rate 1.2% on 2 mil..roughly 2K a month…Insurance, another $200. per month, total $2200. mo. this after you plunked dow 2 mil in cash….I’ll pass…

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2006-04-14 09:33:06

Hey Clouseau, Do you have any stats or intel on the Condo or SFH market for Hopkins, MN? I have a friend who is trying to get a condo development off the ground over there but having no luck. This guy is turning into one FB, but fast. Thanks in advance for any info you or anyone else can offer.

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Comment by santacruzsux
2006-04-14 10:16:25

In Santa Cruz a friend lives a block from the ocean, and one of the nicer beaches in the city. He is in an older 2br/2ba house with a smaller yard and two car garage. Houses in the area have been selling in the 1mil to 1.7 mil range. He pays $1850/mo in retn. Bwahahahaha!!

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Comment by destinsm
2006-04-14 09:30:35

Examples like this everywhere you look in my town…

$1,390,000

SIDES MORENO POINT WEST
5 CALHOUN AVENUE, #603
DESTIN , FL 32541

—- or rent for —-

Destin - $2,500
ONE OF DESTIN’S PREMIER WATERFRONT LOCATIONS! THIS THIRD FLOOR MORENO POINT UNIT HAS TEN FOOT CEILINGS AND OFFERS NUMEROUS SPECTACULAR VIEWS OF THE GULF, THE BAY, EAST PASS, & DON’T FORGET CRAB ISLAND.

 
Comment by steinravnik
2006-04-14 09:35:49

I’m about to sign a lease to rent a $500K rowhouse in North Capitol Hill area of DC for $1200/month. How does that sound?

Comment by Hoz
2006-04-14 14:54:30

$2900 for a $1.7MM sounds just as good. LOL

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Comment by Patriotic Bear
2006-04-15 04:53:29

I am renting a 1.2 million dollar house for $1,600. a month. It works out to a 1% rate of return after expenses for the owner.

 
 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-04-14 09:57:03

Such a deal- Where do I sign up to rent it? ;-)

 
 
Comment by Chester from Westchester
2006-04-14 07:57:57

“Like much of the Jersey Shore, Ocean City was ignored by New York vacation buyers until the early 2000s, when exploding prices in the Hamptons finally persuaded buyers to take a look. Suddenly, prices soared and supply dried up. “Things went through the roof,” says Nicholas Marotta, president of the Ocean City Board of Realtors, adding that “we all knew it was going to come to an end.”

And guess what, there will be a bloodbath in the Hamptons as well. This year’s hot rental market there is precisely due to nobody wanting to buy because gravity will invariably take its toll on prices. $800,000 for a beat up ranch on a postage stamp lot near the Shinnecock Indian reservation (READ: ghetto)? I don’t think so.

Also, so many of the people who bought on ARMs will soon need to rent their properties out for the summer to stay afloat. That will flood the rental market and bring down rental prices. Once eneough people realize there’s truly reduced appreciation potential and start liquidating, the Hamptons prices will tumble like a house of cards.

And why battle traffic for so many hours when Jet Blue can get you to nicer and more affordable places in half the time. Can you say Stowe, Vermont?

 
Comment by realist
2006-04-14 07:59:22

year over year at the n.c. shore, carolina beach sales are down 70%, kure beach 80%, topsail island 73%. some banks are not lending on new projects in kure or carlolina beach until they see more sales. many small builders are stuck with overpriced lots, and are willing to come to the closing table with money in order to get rid of inventory. by the end of the year, interest rates should be up to 7%. since 2000, carolina beach has added 500 units, while the population has only grown by 80. we do not have a sellers’ market.

 
Comment by greenlander
2006-04-14 08:09:51

“Broker John Melton listed his 10-year-old house in Bend, Ore., for $549,000 in December; now he’s lowered the price to $524,000.”

It’s possible to pay $500K for a house in Bend, Oregon??? Who’d pay that much to live in the armpit of the west coast?

Comment by TRich
2006-04-14 08:12:33

I think Bend is kind of a ski resort town. Granted, it is obviously overpriced.

 
Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2006-04-14 08:19:35

Bend, OR isn’t an armpit but it ain’t Newport Beach either.

Bend has great skiing, great fishing, great whitewater kayaking and a great brewery.

Comment by scdave
2006-04-14 10:28:36

The mustard is off the hot dog in Bend…Check out the amount of property for sale vs. population….

 
 
Comment by DinOR
2006-04-14 10:41:03

I’m not saying that Bend is without appeal but the truth is after you’ve been there more than a couple of days you and your wife have seen and done just about everything there is to do. That’s why small town Oregon (particularly the coast) is swamped with this that and the other “fest” just about every weekend. Truthfully Portland isn’t much better. They start for Cinco De Mayo and don’t end until mid/late October. They need something to keep you coming back, but they’re all the same. It gets to be a real drag.

Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2006-04-14 11:30:49

I lived in PDX.

OR is a great place to visit or retire.

Yes, the RE is overpriced there too compared to wages.

 
Comment by scdave
2006-04-14 12:16:40

DinOR;…I do the Kite festival gig in Brookings and the Dunes in Florence…

 
 
 
Comment by flat
2006-04-14 08:10:50

HI-anus
home of fat boy ted– I hear the kennedy’s are giving back to the indians any day now
Cape tanked first in 1987
and this time too in early 05

 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-04-14 08:19:45

Did anyone see that article in the LA Times yesterday that said that even the most bearish UCLA economist does not predict price declines in LA?

Comment by death_spiral
2006-04-14 08:27:36

SO WHAT? NOW OF THESE MORONS PREDICTED A STOCKMARKET CRASH IN 2000 EITHER. IT’S JUST A JOB.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-04-14 08:43:56

I just checked my old area in L.A. County and the same houses have been sitting on the market for 5 months . In addition they put up alot of listings at the same prices but you get 500 or more square feet verses last year . I call that a price decrease .

Comment by veniceguy
2006-04-14 11:03:27

Related to your observation- around 6 weeks or 2 months ago I mentioned the exploding inventory in Venice. Normaly I had seen 3 houses for sale, then it was up to 15 at that time. For the last month it has been at 26 houses. Out of the previous 15, only 2 have sold, and those were the ones that were on the market first and in the best locations. Alot of the properties are clearly speculator properties (especially on Rose Ave in Venice). This is on my route to work of about 1.5 miles.

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Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-04-14 14:25:38

Any Venice price reductions???

 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-04-14 14:29:55

How can anyone be speculating on Venice properties, when they cost 1.2M+ and annual rents are like 20-30K? Just wondering how the numbers work on that. I know, I know, they are buying for upside not current cash flow.

 
Comment by Tom
2006-04-14 14:52:59

It’s called gambling. People do it in Vegas.

Have you seen LV RE lately :-) Yeah, it’s a gamble.

 
Comment by veniceguy
2006-04-14 15:29:28

I haven’t dug in to the MLS, but I do know that I haven’t seen any “Price Reduced” signs. I’m keeping my eye’s on that and keep expecting to see them, but it’s still probably too early here. I’ll let you know as soon as they appear. I’m sure that the properties are speculator properties because there is a whole row down Rose Ave. of exactly the same company’s sign, “Venice Properties”. They must have monopolized the street’s buys for some time and are getting out now.

 
Comment by veniceguy
2006-04-14 16:19:28

By the way, does anybody have an idea of what that $1.2M+ Venice home will actually go for after a bust? If there is the normal relation between rents and price, and the rents are $2000-2500/month, then the price of the Venice homes should be at $300K -350K or so. That would mean a 75% drop. That seems pretty extreme. Is there any other factor that could justify a smaller drop? It doesn’t particularly seem like it to me. If I had $1.2M+ to spend I certainly wouldn’t spend it in a gang neighborhood with crappy local schools, I would go to Santa Monica or Culver City at the minimum.

 
 
 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-04-14 08:52:32

Moreover, it is a job where you keep getting paid no matter whether your predictions turn out right or wrong…

Comment by Getstucco
2006-04-14 08:53:40

Oh, and you might get paid more if your predictions help your constituency (the RE business) make more dough off of fools…

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Comment by feepness
2006-04-14 10:36:48

Look, prices will definitely rise unless they fall, though it is also possible that they may stay the same.

I guarantee it.

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Comment by rms
2006-04-14 22:25:49

“Look, prices will definitely rise unless they fall, though it is also possible that they may stay the same.”

Professor, you should apply for tenure!

 
 
 
Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2006-04-14 09:07:40

Professional egos sometimes get in the way of clear headed thinking.

Maybe UCLA just capitulated, there always are bears that capitulate because they can no longer stand getting beaten up for the early bearish position.

I think capitulation of prominent bears is interesting and a sign of the end of the bubble.

Comment by Getstucco
2006-04-14 10:09:40

You are right. His colleague Leamer was among the visionaries to warn first (2002?) about the “housing P/E ratio” being too high, and now apprentice Thornberg starts to soften his warnings as the bubble unravels. Perhaps they want to avoid becoming the messengers who get killed…

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Comment by Hoz
2006-04-14 15:35:05

What and replace Ben! Ben is clearly the messenger that will be fed to the lions after severe and painful disembowlment. LOL

 
 
Comment by Kim
2006-04-14 12:40:10

“I think capitulation of prominent bears is interesting and a sign of the end of the bubble.”

I agree.

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Comment by sfv_hopeful
2006-04-14 08:39:55

I predict that even the most bullish (with several plays on the word) UCLA economists will be backtracking and suddenly be touting a “see? I told you prices were going to plummet in LA” attitude in the not-so-distant future while patting themselves on the back and telling themselves what geniuses they are.

 
Comment by Judicious1
2006-04-14 09:36:49

Driving along the beach cities in the South Bay last Sunday…I’ve never seen so many “Open House” signs in the 10 years I’ve lived here.

Six months ago people thought I was foolish for thinking a decline was just around the corner…now some of them are starting to change their minds.

It’s common sense. Income levels will not sustain these prices. Interest rates and inventories are rising. Easy lending standards are being scrutinized. Speculation is gone…”poof”. The inevitable downturn is upon us. Patience will be rewarded handsomely.

Comment by lagunabeachinvestor
2006-04-14 10:44:24

Interesting comment Judicious1. I think the luxury areas on the So. Cal coast like the South Bay, Newport and Laguna Beach, etc. will get hit hard in the downturn. I talk to friends that says the same old “things can’t/won’t go down in Laguna Beach, it’s too desirable a location”. I now just say “we will see”, but am thinking “just look at what happend during the last cyclical downtrun”.

But of course I am wrong, cause it’s different this time!

Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2006-04-14 13:18:19

They seem to get hit the very last. I’m convinced you’ll see Riverside, San Bernadino & outlying area get hammered first. They will fall and foreclosures will set in. Then the interior will crumble with the beach areas hit the last.

But, since the beach areas are $M+, there is a long long way to fall in absolute dollar terms. The percentages may be roughly the same but I would much rather lose 40% of $300K than 40% of $2M.

When I go to the grocery store or the gas station, I pay in DOLLARS, not percentage of my home’s value.

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Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-14 12:42:21

LA INVESTOR Girl,

“Did anyone see that article in the LA Times yesterday that said that even the most bearish UCLA economist does not predict price declines in LA? ”

WHY IS THIS any different than any of the other Bullpucky stories out there right now.? This Smacks of the same uninformed writing in recent past. I guess only once there is hard evidence (numbers) that show inventory has soared and median prices have flattened or even gone down… will they write anything different.

 
 
Comment by UnRealtor
2006-04-14 08:41:57

Boycott Open Houses!

Let realtor sign-in books sit empty.

Let realtors see no foot traffic.

Let realtors sit alone and bored from 1-4PM.

Comment by cereal
2006-04-14 09:20:46

or, you can offer words of discouragement.

as if they need them

 
Comment by chris 415
2006-04-14 11:03:46

It can be fun to watch realtors have nervous breakdowns - I’m going to start going to open houses and tell them that granite countertops and stainless appliances are soooo passe - nobody wants that anymore.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-04-14 15:32:22

I’ve been going to open houses, but have perfected the art of looking incredulous as I study the price on the realtor sheet. Then I say I’m “just looking” and will only buy after prices come back down to earth. If the realtor hears that enough times, they’ll have more reason to tell Mr. Seller to price the property more realistically.

 
 
 
Comment by Rainman18
2006-04-14 08:59:58

“…which he estimates is worth about $1.7 million,…He says that over the last few months, both selling prices and rents (are) softening now.”

Bubblefucius say:

Home price like toilet paper. Both begin as big wad, next thing you know you are spreading cheeks for soft landing.

Comment by SunsetBeachGuy
2006-04-14 09:04:52

LMAO, keep it up I need that.

Comment by scdave
2006-04-14 10:30:35

Rainman cracks me up…

 
 
Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-04-14 12:50:34

BubbleBelieverFucius adds:

Big Wad toilet paper has many use. Also good for wiping $h!t from fan when home not sell, and clever owner must reduce price for proper sale.

 
 
Comment by Bigdaddy63
2006-04-14 09:01:43

Anyone else see that Assclown Mark Vitner from Wachovia on CNBC yesterday? There were 3 other panelists on all saying how the markets ( in paticular Florida) were all overvalued and he was frothing at the mouth and whining how the markets have only gone down 10%, etc… and how the “apocolyptic” forecasters were all wrong.

He was fuming over the WSJ article.

I love it when these paid touters see their lives flashing in front of their faces.

Comment by DC_Too
2006-04-14 09:22:55

That miserable SOB is the one that keeps “upgrading” the builder stocks. Let’s see him put his money where his mouth is…

 
Comment by eleua
2006-04-14 09:55:17

I’m one of those apocolyptic forecasters. Sheesh! It has only been 6 months since the top, and 2 months since the top was identified! These things take time.

In 2008, we shall see who is right. Will property be 10% down, or 80% down? CNBC won’t even be on the air.

Comment by Judicious1
2006-04-14 10:03:25

eleua,

I like your style. You’re right, this will take some time…but we’ll be there before you know it.

I’ll bet the ARM resets and property tax payments are really starting to hurt right now. Let’s throw $4/gal gas and RE related job losses into the mix and see where we are in a year or two.

Comment by death_spiral
2006-04-14 10:26:49

Don’t forget energy bills and insurance for our amigos in Florida.

Hasta la vista, Baby!!

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Comment by DC in LBV
2006-04-14 10:51:42

But The bilge writers at the Orlando Sentinal ahd this headline today: “Orlando housing values are safe”

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-homerisk1406apr14,0,6942244.story?coll=orl-business-headlines

 
Comment by orlandorenter
2006-04-14 14:35:52

I cannot wait for March figures. I hear this in Orlando all the time. “It’s different here”. God I hope they are wrong. It has become unaffordable to buy or rent. Jobs pay nothing.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Bearnanke
2006-04-14 09:15:27

Did anyone else get this when they read the article… “Investors and second-home buyers purchased a record 3.34 million homes last year, up 16% over 2004, according to the National Association of Realtors. (Investors made up three out of four of these purchases.)”

Simple math says that investors purchased 2.5 million homes last year. If you know your investment is going no where, you unload. I know housing moves slower than stocks, but 2.5 million houses (or some high percentage) that will eventually end up on the market in the next, let’s say 3-4 years?!?

I love the tidbits that say it all if you just spend some thinking time on it!

Comment by Waiting to Pounce
2006-04-14 09:27:36

I’m wondering if a second home is as good as taking vacations with the interest on the money you keep in your pocket if you don’t buy the second home. No taxes to pay, no furniture to buy, no house sitters to pay. No worries about break ins and hurricanes.

And you can go to a different place every year - you are not a prisoner.

Comment by Bearnanke
2006-04-14 09:56:19

That’s the question facing these investors in a (best case) stagnant market!

I have similar logic to those who buy RVs for two vacations a year. 100-200K can buy you a lot of swank 5-star travel for a long time.

 
Comment by homoaner
2006-04-14 12:18:25

Here’s what vacation homeowners are doing at a big company here in town: they hold periodic auctions for charity. They put on the block a week’s stay at their vacation homes. The winner gets a week’s stay and a tax writeoff. Then the vacation homeowners approach the losing bidders afterwards, offering them a week’s stay at what those persons had bid. Nice way to earn some undeclared income - especially when you don’t really want to formally rent out your second home.

 
 
 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-04-14 09:30:19

‘Offers that would have been an insult a year ago are now being accepted,’ he says.”

This is one aspect of the bubble I never understood: sellers being “insulted” by offers they think are too low.

Comment by Bearnanke
2006-04-14 10:00:32

sure, you’re insulting their intelligence at their having bought at the high ;)

 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-04-14 10:11:33

This idea of sellers who are “insulted” at low offers is also a good rumor for Realtors (TM) to spread around, in order to increase the number of offers that come in high enough to make the transactions go through.

Comment by txchick57
2006-04-14 10:21:12

Again, any realtor that would not take my offer to the seller would not be my realtor any longer. I would type it up and put it in the guy’s mailbox.

Comment by scdave
2006-04-14 10:44:44

chick;…In my early days in the business, honning my skills I used to get “run around” by recent graduates of the $99. “get rich in RE” siminar…In hindsite, I was just a taxi with a lock box key writing offers that never got accepted. I learned from it…Not suggesting that you are one of these though…

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Comment by mrincomestream
2006-04-14 14:21:55

LOL yea the guys who wanted to buy 5 million dollar properties with a $1,000.00 prommissory notes for earnest money deposits. The good old days.

 
Comment by Tom
2006-04-14 14:54:59

Was his name Carlton Sheets?

 
 
Comment by optioned unarmed
2006-04-14 10:47:06

I once had a realtor tell me it would “hurt her reputation” if she presented lowball offers for me.

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Comment by eleua
2006-04-14 10:00:07

I wonder how insulting Notices of Default, Notices of Sale, Eviction Notices, and bankruptcy filings are?

It’s over. The market has turned, and owners are going to have to eat the hubrus they dished out over the past few years.

What goes around, comes around.

Brains will only get you so far, and luck always runs out.

Comment by txchick57
2006-04-14 10:20:18

Ah, you’re quoting a line from Thelma & Louise, one of my alltime favorite movies.

Here’s the one I like from this article

The dearth of buyers means sellers must consider every offer, even if it gives them little profit, says agent Jim Kalweit in the Cape Cod town of Hyannis, Mass.

WHERE IS IT WRITTEN THAT A PROFIT IS GUARANTEED? PEOPLE, GET OVER IT! Sometimes you lose money!

Comment by death_spiral
2006-04-14 10:32:33

It’s called, Takin it Up the Arse!!

 
Comment by eleua
2006-04-14 11:27:03

Yes, Thelma and Louise is also one of my favorite movies. The line I used is a great proverb for life.

No one is as smart as they think they are.

or if you prefer Proverbs:

“Pride goes before destruction, and haughtiness before a fall.”

Prov. 16:18.

I guess this is appropriate for today’s RE bulls. Remeber how cocky and bullet-proof they were just a few months ago.

 
 
 
Comment by cereal
2006-04-14 10:43:29

i just spent a half hour looking at reduced dtsd condos. those are some great places to live. many are never lived in and have been sitting for months.

i can see me and sf jack in a few years grilling carne asada from our 12th story balconies while looking down into petco park where the dodgers will be thoroughly thrashing the stupid padres.

Comment by death_spiral
2006-04-14 11:07:10

What’s the squirrel situation?

Comment by cereal
2006-04-14 11:13:58

i could probably pick them off with a good pellet gun. up here on the 12th floor however i think pidgeons are better targets

Comment by death_spiral
2006-04-14 11:16:21

Don’t let those avian POS’s crap on yer balcony or you might be dead in a week!

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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-04-14 15:27:54

Yes, and from the 12th floor you can heat coins with a cigarette lighter and drop them to the winos just for fun. Hey, isn’t that one the flipper who used to own this condo?

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Comment by dennis
2006-04-14 12:05:10

Real estate Agents and that is all they are is an AGENT. Their job is to carry bids and offers by prospective clients and WORK as though they have someting to offer besides their stupid comments about how markets work when is is only a sellers market. It is time the ones who have the savy to step up and show who they are and make this market work.

 
Comment by Miami_med
2006-04-14 12:38:46

There is a house of Chaminade Drive in Hollywood, FL that I have been watching since last year. Initial asking $495,000, then $465,000, then $449,000, then a for sale sign with no price from a different realtor. There is now a $2300/month for rent sign. Similar homes in the area are renting for below $2,000/month. They just don’t get it.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-04-14 13:21:17

most people don’t get it.

Rainman - we are awaiting Bubbles appearance. Even my 4 yr daughter wants to hear from Bubbles the Clown. Need some good material for my returning to Clowifornia next week.

 
Comment by Wickedheart
2006-04-14 13:56:57

need 2 leave ca

Shouldn’t Bubbles the Clown be rated at least PG13?

 
Comment by Rainman18
2006-04-14 14:45:32

KBTC interrupts this blog to bring you the following educational program.

Okay, easy boys and girls, you know Bubbles needs the pain-killers to kick in before he can start the show. Woo! that’s better…

Hey! it’s me again, Bubbles the Clown! Are you ready to have some more crazy fun with your old pal? Can you believe it’s already our fourth episode?! Okay!, let’s start the show!

While Bubbles was watching TV the other night and before he passed out, Bubbles saw a commercial with Realtors talking about how ethical they are. And that got Bubbles to thinking…hmm… Just what ethics are Realtors supposed to follow? Let’s find out together!

Kids do you know what a Code of Ethics is? Well, they’re like morals or rules for adults that help guide them to act honestly and do the right thing, kind of like when your parents tell you not to lie or be greedy! On today’s show we’re gonna take a magical journey through the National Association of Realtors’ Official Code of Ethics. Now, c’mon don’t make that poopy face. It’ll be FUN, I promise! We’ll meet new friends, watch a parade and even have a sing along! Follow me!

Okay, first of all you’ll notice that there’s a Preamble…that’s right, just like the Constitution! Impressive! Let’s read it together. Now for extra zany fun, read it slowly and hum “The Battle Hymn of the Republic” as you read the second passage. You know that one, Glory, glory, Hallelujah!

Preamble…
Under all is the land…REALTORS® should recognize that the interests of the nation and its citizens require the highest and best use of the land and the widest distribution of land ownership. They require the creation of adequate housing, the building of functioning cities, the development of productive industries and farms, and the preservation of a healthful environment.

Okay, start humming…and remember kids, take in each magical word.

Such interests impose obligations beyond those of ordinary commerce. They impose grave social responsibility and a patriotic duty to which REALTORS® should dedicate themselves, and for which they should be diligent in preparing themselves. REALTORS®, therefore, are zealous to maintain and improve the standards of their calling and share with their fellow REALTORS® a common responsibility for its integrity and honor.

Wow! Those words sound important don’t they!

Hey, look kids! It’s a parade of Realtors marching down Main Street and they’re headed our way! Look at all of ‘em wearing their Gold Blazers, walking proudly arm in arm with heads held high. Listen! Their singing! Hey! We know this one…lets sing along with ‘em!


“Gory Story How-we-screw-ya”

Our eyes have seen the prices of your homes get out of hand!
But you see, it’s all because they’re making no more land!
Appreciation will increase FOREVER, understand?
Our ‘truth’ keeps marching on!

We are quoted in the paper ‘bout the market all the time.
WE would rather shoot ourselves, than talk of a decline.
What would be the point of that, ya know it’s not a crime!
Our ‘truth’ keeps marching on!

Glory, glory Hallelujah!
We don’t care how much we screw-ya!
We’re proud to say we blew right through-ya!
Our ‘truth’ keeps marching on!

It doesn’t matter what the price, we recommend you buy.
You’ll be out forever, we don’t want to see you cry!
Our six- percent commissions justify that little lie!
Our ‘truth’ keeps marching on!

Glory, glory Hallelujah!
We make money while we fool-ya!
We made out, we’re glad we knew-ya!
Our ‘truth’ keeps marching on!

We will say most anything to see that we survive!
We will smile as we lie to keep the game alive!
It doesn’t matter in the least that you will take a dive!
Our ‘truth’ keeps marching on!

It’s getting tough to find a house that you can still afford.
We just found a ‘cozy’ place we think you will adore.
Just ignore the bullet holes, the gangs and cracky whores!
Our ‘truth’ keeps marching on!

Glory, glory Hallelujah!
We don’t care how much we screwed-ya!
We were trained to hook and woo-ya!
Our ‘truth’ keeps marching on!

Yea! Realtors are fun, aren’t they?! Do they make you giggle too?

Okay. Lets go to the next part of our fun ethics tour!

In recognition and appreciation of their obligations to clients, customers, and the public, REALTORS® continuously strive to become and remain informed on issues affecting real estate…They identify and take steps, through enforcement of this Code of Ethics, to eliminate practices which may damage the public or which might discredit or bring dishonor to the real estate profession.

BOING!!! Uh-oh. Remember the show when Bubbles talked to you about honesty and to always tell the truth even though it might be hard? Looks like our new best friends the Realtors must’ve slept in that day!

That’s okay! You know what Bubbles says, ‘mistakes are just lessons in disguise!’ Let’s continue our magical journey!

The term REALTOR® has come to connote competency, fairness, and high integrity resulting from adherence to a lofty ideal of moral conduct in business relations. No inducement of profit can justify departure from this ideal.

Umm…. Okaaay…. Bubbles didn’t see that one coming …Yikes! Quickly kids, move along, quickly, …let’s hurry to the next part! We’re still havin’ fun! It’s okay.

In instances where their opinion is sought, or where REALTORS® believe that comment is necessary, their opinion is offered in an objective, professional manner, uninfluenced by any personal motivation or potential advantage or gain.

HEY….WAIT…A…MINUTE! YOU HAVN’T BEEN FOLLOWING YOUR CODE OF ETHICS AT ALL…AND YOU’VE BEEN LYING TO US THIS WHOLE TIME!!! OH MY GOD, THESE ARE CHILDREN! KIDS, RUN!!! THEY’RE AFTER US!!! RUN FROM THE EVIL REALTORS, AND DON’T LOOK INTO THEIR EYES!!! WHERE’S TIMMY? OH MY GOD THEY GOT TIMMY! DON’T LOOK BACK KIDS, IT’S TOO HORRIBLE!!! SAVE YOURSELVES, WE CAN’T HELP TIMMY NOW!…THIS WAY, FOLLOW BUBBLES!!!…………….

WHEW! That was close! Okay. Stop screaming kids! Bubbles needs you to calm down… Good….that’s better. Poor Timmy, and poor Bubbles when Timmy’s parents hire mean Mr. Lawyer. But thank goodness the rest of us made it out of there alive! Bubbles can’t run like he used to, especially in these big floppy shoes.

Oh! Hang on, what’s this? The Realtors must have dropped it when they were chasing us. It’s from their Code of Ethics. Let’s see what it says…

In the interpretation of this obligation, REALTORS® can take no safer guide than that which has been handed down through the centuries, embodied in the Golden Rule, “Whatsoever ye would that others should do to you, do ye even so to them.”

Oh, the Golden Rule! We know that one! And what is the Golden Rule kids? That’s right, whoever wears the Golden Blazer can make up whatever the hell they want!

Wow! So what did we learn today boys and girls? If a Realtor pulls up and offers you candy and tries to lure you into their Mercedes-Benz to go look at houses, what do you do? That’s right! RUN!!!

Well that’s about all the time we have for today’s show! So until next time kids, remember: Bubbles the Clown is FUN!!! Housing bubbles are icky.

Bye Kids!

A rainman18production 2006 copyright
BTC#4

Comment by CA renter
2006-04-15 01:39:17

Thanks, Rainman!

It’s hard to believe they actually take themselves that seriously. I thought you were joking at first and made up that “Code of Ethics.”

 
 
Comment by peterbob
2006-04-14 15:00:06

“The fact that some sellers are trimming prices has made some buyers wary. Nancy Rawls, a hospital-benefits coordinator, is looking to buy a two-bedroom vacation condo in Pensacola, Fla., but thinks prices may continue soften through the summer as inventory levels build. ‘You have to sit, wait and watch,’ she says.”

And this is the real problem. Even as prices fall, buyers are worried about further price reductions. I would say that in many places, unless you can buy for about 30% or more less than last summer’s peak, you should wait it out.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2006-04-14 15:37:08

Problem, my ass. Ms. Rawl’s decision to hold off is a good thing. It means a realization is dawning among people, even the herd creatures, that buying at the top of the market is a bad idea and that those who are patient, and cautious, will be rewarded.

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-04-14 19:20:00

Rainman, awesome post. You have a true gift there. May all realtors read this and take it to heart (NOT).

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-04-15 15:45:10

will keep it clean for my 4 yr old. She asked for Bubbles. I had to sing “Flipper, flopper, flipper flopper - here comes Bubbles the Clown” and she was really happy.

 
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