Bits Bucket For August 15, 2008
Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Please visit the HBB Forum. Post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Ticking time bomb
Aug 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition
A nasty mortgage product promises yet more misery
OPTIMISTS, look away now. Prices in America’s housing market may have slumped, but the pain for a significant subset of homeowners has barely begun. Even at Barclays Capital, which spotted some of the improvements mentioned in the previous story, there is still concern. The bank’s Nicholas Strand says that roughly 1.4m households, most of them in California, hold a particularly nasty type of adjustable-rate mortgage called the “option ARM”. Although the overall value of option ARMs is lower than that of subprime loans—some $500 billion, according to Mr Strand, compared with about $1 trillion in subprime loans—their sting is more venomous.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11921871
Old: Option ARM
New: Prosthesis ARM
gold
we are turning Japanese, I really think so
think so
“The biggest wave of recasts is due to happen in 2010 and 2011. By some estimates, borrowers’ monthly payments will then surge by 60-80% (see chart), at a time when property values may still be at, or close to, their trough.”
That could be some hit, because the big nominal price declines, which hopefully will complete before the end of next year (so people can start buying at low prices), will almost certainly be followed by a long period of stagnation (and falling prices relative to inflation), especially as interest rates adjust upward. It could mean another wave of market disruption in California.
Fortunately, there aren’t a lot of those around the Northeast, I hope.
My guess would be that the option-ARM resetting episode would accelerate price declines which, in my view, have not come anywhere near reducing prices to a reasonable level. (Reasonable compared with the costs of renting.)
The recasts moved up due to large number of borrowers making minimum payment. The loans “recast” into an fully amoritizing mortgage when the balance hits 120% of original value.
Its hard to think how under water the NegAm Option arms will be when they “recast”. Probably homes will be less than 60% of the value of the loan (30% drop in value along with 20% increase in balance).
The loss severity could be upwards of 70%!
But… but… the Powers that Be told us that everything was “contained!” Hahaha!!
Snatch blade of containment from hand, Grasshopper…
It was contained. Until it wasn’t.
Containmanated…
Most things that go POP, are somewhat “contained” until that until they BUST
As I recall from my chemistry and physics classes, the biggest explosions come from systems formerly “contained”.
I think the writer balled up the story. My understanding is that an option ARM could be subprime, Alt-A or prime, depending on the borrower’s credit rating. I.e., subprime and option ARMs are not mutually exclusive categories as the writer suggests.
Please correct me and accept my humble apologies if this is incorrect.
First National Bank (one of the “Big 4″ SA banks) has recently been reassessing and cancelling bonds that have been approved, but have not been finalised. This may cause people to lose deposits already paid, but FNB says “Look at the big picture, we probably saved you money“.
If it’s Friday then there must be a bank bust announcement in the offing. Anyone have any likely suspects?
Banks-shot left lower corner pocket, carom off of California.
Watch out,
Bair may be watching what you post.
The Bair Snitch Project?
alad…..you’re killin’ me. I’m at work, and my outbursts are not appreciated!
I’m sure there will be at least one small bank here in Cali. Vineyard Bank is on the ropes - referee is on # 9 of the 10 count. Regulators should have control of that bank by the end of the month.
Who else? Downey, Temecula Valley, PFF, Security Pacific,…
Wasn’t PFF bought by Cal National (a private bank that to my understanding is in very good shape)?
I think Downey’s in trouble though…
Well, “Walk-over-yah” is busy trying to buy back debt or something, probably to avoid people asking too many questions about what they are up to…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_xcHrtoaVIc&refer=home
So, they seem to be doing well!
“Mission Accomplished!”
I suspect the two biggie regional banks in Wisconsin are sweating bullets every Friday because their exposure to IDIOT commercial and and Crazy residental loans in Fl and Az. One just took a 1.4 billion hit
This always keeps comes me entertained and guessing if I’ll be banking in Yen or Riyals come Mondays
Silver State. ala Democrats Hammer the Prodigal son.
Not a blog rumor…
PAGE ONE
FDIC Faces Mortgage Mess After Running Failed Bank
Subprime Lender Made Problem Loans On Regulators’ Watch
By MARK MAREMONT
July 21, 2008; Page A1
Federal officials heap much of the blame for the subprime mortgage mess on lenders, claiming they recklessly made too many high-cost home loans to borrowers who couldn’t afford them.
It turns out that the U.S. government itself was one of the lenders giving out high-interest, subprime mortgages, some of them predatory, according to government documents filed in federal court.
The angelic government should get more involved in regulating/running these bank to ensure predatory and other such loans and activities are not subjected onto the people by the evil corporations who…
wait, what?
I know BP. Those poor suffering banks. It’s a shame.
We already know the banks are run by shysters. Some of us still haven’t figured out the govt is run by the same (red and blue) shysters.
So why the constant pandering for those poor poor abused corporate entities?
Show me where I have once pandered for a corporation? I’ve said numerous times I don’t even think they should be allowed to exist in that form. If I were king for a day we wouldn’t have corporations. You want to own a business? Fine, but you get to be liable for its behavior. If you make big bucks great, I’m not going to punish someone for being successful. If you lose your ass, that’s fine too and you get to bare that burden on your own (or to the extent you are working with other owners or whatever).
Just because I criticize the blue in a given instance doesn’t mean I support the red.
People are what they are. Some are greedy, selfish, power hungry, etc some have more positive attributes than negative.
You can’t effectively regulate “good behavior”, you can’t prevent people from trying to take unethical or immoral advantage, you can’t make bad people act good but you can choose to not aggregate power into a concentrated sphere that is easily controlled by people who are willing to do “whatever it takes” to be in control.
I want to second bluprint’s post… corporations can exist without the existence of a government simply by having a contract between two or more people. Without the government protection and IP laws (designed by and for corporations that can never die) then corporations would not be the *evil* they are today.
In fascism the government dumbs down the people and makes them *dependent* upon the corporations. 99% of the time people complain about the “evil corporations” it is because they have allowed themselves to become dependent upon those corporations due to government regulation (prevention of competition via large regulatory barriers to entry). Think of how many people would be building / selling electric cars, mini-power plants, cheap medical services, quality education if it were not for the GOVERNMENT interfering.
Without the government corporations lose all of their power outside of their ability to maintain trade secrets and outperform the little guys. If they are outperforming the little guys then the economy is getting the most benefit for the least cost. It is a rare situation that a large bureaucracy can outperform a small company unless the government forces the bureaucracy on the small company.
bp, when one excoriates one side, they’re clearly pandering for the other. The contempt you hold for those who don’t have the power and resources to stand up to the fascist system that enslaves them is very obvious in your posts. I can appreciate the libertarian utopia you elude to in your posts is equal opportunity bashing, but that same libertarianism is nothing short of a theoretical pipedream.
Righto Virginia, if corps didn’t have all the gov protections, you and I would have been driving electric/or hybrid cars for the past 20-30 yrs or more, but the inventors etc were bought out/off and you nor I have seen hide nor hair of anything advanced that didn’t flow directly into bad corp coffers.
And that just goes for autos etc, just think about medical and natural remedies that are being squashed due to big pharma corps.
Lawdy Save the Corpse, I mean Corps.
Of course, there wouldn’t be any roads to drive our cool electric cars on…
You can’t be sure of that.
BP, you and VTDan have made the case less tax on corporations too many times to count yet you never seem to have a problem with the bottom 95% of WAGE EARNERS shouldering the most of the tax burden. If that’s not pandering, nothing is.
You can easily have roads without government, but it requires one to drop the bias that “man cannot fly” long enough to think it through and to study the history of roads.
Even animals create roads / trails that they follow.
FREE MARKET TRANSPORTATION:
DENATIONALIZING THE ROADS
http://www.mises.org/journals/jls/3_2/3_2_7.pdf
In the end you will see that government roads imply that *someone* must decide what is best and ultimately leads to theft to fund politically motivated “bridges to nowhere”.
For the first 100 years of our country most roads were built privately and funded by local businesses. If it made economic sense to build a road then it would be built and no eminent domain would be necessary.
Obviously having a toll every 100 feet would not make economic sense because it would drive customers away; therefore, the market would develop something much better that result in the most benefit to society for the least cost with out robbing anyone via taxes.
Many roads would have no tolls and could probably be funded by advertising and the increase in business it brought to a town.
exeter… you obviously haven’t followed enough of my postings to know that I consider ALL taxes theft (what ever form they take).
Further you haven’t considered that the bottom 95% will always pay 95% of the taxes because companies consider taxes an “operating expense” and raise prices accordingly to generate the same “after tax” profit.
There is no way around the fact that the government has no money and must steal from the people… attempting to justify a tax on one person or another based on some kind of “means test” is like trying to justify the rape of one individual over another based upon how emotionally stable they are.
Clearly the corporations are making major profits BECAUSE of government favors and these profits are just another “tax via regulation” on the bottom 95%. I find it humorous that people on one hand call for regulation (that ultimately profits big business) and then call for taxes on big business with the unintended consequences that the 95% are then taxed twice.
VTDan,
If private enterprise were better at creating a road system than the government, then it would have been done. I think if you look around the world today, I would much rather live in places with powerful, expensive governments (U.S., W. Europe) than in places with weak to non-existent governments (Afghanistan, Somalia).
And theft is just a meaningless word without the government. Something is only “mine” if their exists a system to allocate it to my use. You can do that with a government, or with a private army. Government, while expensive, is still cheaper than private armies, especially when you can’t afford one.
I am not a fan of big government, nor am i a socialist. But I do recognize that their are places where we can have richer lives by doing things collectively than going it alone, and that many times that requires many to be dragged along unwillingly. But we also have an individual responsibility to ensure our government does as little of that as possible, and that it does what it does as efficiently as possible.
Dan, harping on the same theoretical but unachievable utopia of libertarianism will never, ever bring it closer to reality. Further, you nor any of those who believe in this hocus pocus can point to any state, current or historic, that thrived and led without the collective will and resources of that state, PERIOD. However, a fifth grader point to countless thriving empires that dominated business interests, education and cultural direction for centuries and they achieved it collectively. But do go on fighting your one man war against civilization. And on a second thought, you go ahead and keep “your” money but be sure to stay off my roads, out of my airports and away from my schools. And seeing as state resources were marshalled to develop the power grid and phone system, you should disconnect from that too.
BP, you and VTDan have made the case less tax on corporations too many times to count
Ex, that’s the fiction you live with because you are incapable of understanding anything that doesn’t fall into your red/blue categorization. If I take a position that contradicts your status quo blue, you assume I’m red.
I’m generally for lower taxes across the board. Except for anyone paying zero taxes or less, those people probably need to either stay the same or pay higher. So if I’m “for” lower taxes for corps in one particular discussion, it’s only because I happen to be for lower taxes in general (and the corresponding lower govt spending) or for some other principle reason, not because I love corporations. I’m sorry you are incapable of distinguishing that there are multiple components to discussions like that.
yet you never seem to have a problem with the bottom 95% of WAGE EARNERS shouldering the most of the tax burden.
Well, I’m not certain that’s statistically accurate. The interesting part here is that you interpret my evaluation about that position being factually incorrect as meaning that I would SUPPORT the travesty you describe.
Again, this goes to your inability(?) to understand anything outside of the narrowly defined boxes you have created for yourself over the years.
bp, when one excoriates one side, they’re clearly pandering for the other.
That might be true if there are only two sides. As it turns out you don’t know everything and fully understand all the angles. Everything is not divided into one side or the other. Hell, there aren’t even really sides. You don’t know it, but what you think to be “two sides” are really one side. And they don’t care which part of that one side you support, as long as you keep supporting their side. lol
The contempt you hold for those who don’t have the power and resources to stand up to the fascist system that enslaves them is very obvious in your posts.
The contempt I have is for the system you refer to and those who support it, even unknowingly. You pretend to not like or want it, but you actually continue to support it ferociously. You may not even realize it.
When you draw a picture in your head of the people you describe above and remove the attributes you no doubt assign those people on a count of your own elitism (low intelligence or whatever) you get close to who I am. My Mom was a nurse when I was growing up and my step-dad was a drug addict who spent a very large percentage of our after-tax income on narcotics. We were just a big ol’ dumb ass hick family with cars on blocks in the yard, right down in, where was that you said, “frog balls arkansas”? Seriously, we had lots of cars on blocks. We worked on them for money, like right out of a David Allen Coe song.
I even have one of those fifty-something a year jobs you have openly disparaged. I AM those people and it turns out we aren’t all a bunch of dumb ass hicks. Some of us are even as smart as the resident elitist loud-mouth construction worker. Maybe it turns out we don’t need some jackass yankee “taking care” of us, but thanks for offering.
that same libertarianism is nothing short of a theoretical pipedream.
I can live with that. Ending racism is also a pipedream. As is creating an angelic govt full of people so intelligent and capable and good that not only can they run the restaraunt on the hill successfully (I’m not holding my breath on this), they can run an entire civilization.
But we have to keep ourselves busy with something. So I’m for freedom and you’re for angelic govt.
Jon,
You obviously have not studied the link I posted or you would know that our government did not build roads for 100 years and we had many private companies building roads and a VERY robust economy despite many wars. The few early attempts at building roads with the government were over budget and poor quality compared to the early private roads.
“If someone could fly then they would have, no where in history has anyone flown therefore it is not possible nor practical!” Is the nature of your argument against “private roads”. Recall that the early rail roads were all privately owned as were the airlines and shipping industries. Government only got involved AFTER the free market developed the infrastructure.
I preach freedom because to promote otherwise is to promote theft, murder, and slavery. Sure it may be near impossible to achieve today, but it should always be the GOAL. I agree we need to work together to provide defense and to protect property, but it should be done in the same way that we work together to cover medical expenses, floods, earth quakes, and fires. We should each be able to PICK which company provides our “self defense” insurance and the companies would be competing to server their CUSTOMERS instead of giving the government a monopoly that pretends to OWN their “customers”.
Besides the police are never there to DEFEND YOU they only catch the bad guy later and bring “justice”.
If you consider government “civilized” then I pity you. The PEOPLE are the civilization (aka civilian). If you define “good” and “bad” by government decree then it is even sadder. Who are these people in “government”? Are they not just other people who claim that a “mandate” from 51% of 50% of the population gives them authority to steal from or enslave you. Who are they to say who owns what?
Finally, they are not YOUR roads because if they were YOUR roads then you wouldn’t have to register YOUR car or have a LICENSE to drive on YOUR roads. The roads are owned by the government and the government is not really controlled by “the people” and is certainly not controlled by you!
And after all this time you still can’t make a well thought out assertion without attempting a thinly veiled insult. It’s only the internet bp… You’re giving me too much space in your head.
That report squares perfectly with mafioso Alphonso Jackson publicly stating that he and the current administration are “all for competing with Countrywide”, circa 2005.
According to government documents files in court?
You don’t even need to look that hard. I once went to the FHA website to see if I would qualify (I am a first-time buyer after all). I was stunned to see that the FHA offered some weird “97-3″ program. It was typical US gov’t language, but appread to resemble you average no-money down I/O, as if Uncle Sam had morphed into Angelo Mozillo.
Unsurprising - politicians will do whatever brings in money.
Property taxes bring in money. Hence they support high property values. Yet they state they support broad homeownership (not just homedebtorship).
State sanctioned gambling targets the most vulnerable politicians. Politicians are all for it, because it brings in money. They then spend it to maximum benefit for themselves.
How is that decoupling theory holding up against emerging evidence?
Global Economic Picture Darkens
The world economy is slowing significantly after months of resilience in the face of U.S. weakness. Four of the world’s five largest economies — the U.S., the euro zone, Japan and the U.K. — are now flirting with recession. 6:39 a.m.
Emerging evidence? We don’t need no stinkin’ emerging evidence.
Screw the facts; Party on.
Things will unravel after the November US election!
From the Golden Jackass website:
“”USGovt deficits have doubled in the last year. Tax revenues are way down, like 10% down annually, another confirmation of the recession. Foreclosures for US homes rose by 55% in July, a sign of continued nightmare. Housing prices are accelerating down, as lending institutions holding properties have begun to cave in on price to sell at a time when foreclosures continue in their other doors. The new reality in the housing industry is that two markets are apparent and at work, one influencing the other. There are houses demanded and supplied for the public. There are foreclosures entering and being disposed. In recent months, the foreclosed properties are increasingly dominant, not only making up 40% of final sales, but continuing relentlessly to supply more homes to be sold, upsetting the balance.
Durable goods purchases are also consecutively negative. Job losses are reaching huge levels. Retail sales have turned negative in a skein, not adjusted for inflation. All the component economic data supports the big recession of more than 5% economic decline argued above. The US is mired in the worst STAGFLATION in over 30 years. Until the after November US election, the USGovt will not admit a recession at all.”"
Best Wishes!
ECONOMIC FORECASTING SURVEY
Economists Bet on Aid for Fannie, Freddie
By PHIL IZZO
August 14, 2008; Page A3
Chances are better than even that U.S. government money will be used to prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, in which a sizable minority said the institutions should be nationalized.
When Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson went to Congress last month to defend his plan to extend credit to Fannie and Freddie or to purchase stock in the government-sponsored enterprises, if necessary, he made it clear that the proposal is a “backup facility [that] hopefully would never be used.” However, sharp losses the two companies reported this month and continued concerns about the U.S. credit market have increased the chance that government funds would be needed.
On average, the 53 economists polled in the survey put the probability at 59% that the Treasury Department will have to step in to bail out Fannie or Freddie.
“Blank checks almost always get filled in and cashed,” said Stuart Hoffman of PNC Financial Services Group.
Oooooh, 59% chance. That is some forecasting. The CityBoy forecast is that there is a 100% chance that federal money will be pumped into Fannie and Freddie. There is also a 107% chance that Hank Paulson will continue to be a soulless lout.
I’m shorting Fannie and Freddie and going long on Paulson, because soulless louts and corporate pedigrees seem to be primary qualification for Cabinet-level stupidity.
Why would you short a company that is getting bailed out? Seems to me the market acts pretty positive when a company is getting a boost from bailout.
The company is not getting bailed out, the bond holders are getting bailed out. A huge difference that will cause millions of people to lose their stock investment.
Just like expense reports, they know they shouldn’t use round numbers.
Commodities’ Rebound May Not Be Quick
By Carolyn Cui
Word Count: 490
Commodities prices have experienced plenty of short-lived selloffs in the past few years. But this one might be different and not so short-lived.
The Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index lost 12% in July, the largest monthly drop since 1991, when data first became available.
Gold bugs got crushed like everyone else. I do believe I tried to state this fact, only to get a lot of flak here for it. When deflation sets in nothing will be spared. Not even the shiny stuff.
Where’d all the commodities hype go? It sure was reminiscent of the housing bubble, but in a shorter, more heated fashion. I’m not saying it’s over with, as I’ll never underestimate the power of the big Wall St. firms, but it sure did seem to go “pop” all of a sudden…
Yeah it was over fast. I was really bummed selling my palladium for $550. Regretted it for a while. Needless to say I am pleased now.
This dive has crushed anyone that bought into the hype the past year. Sure looked like a massive bubble to me. I think it is over, but who knows.
If I remember correctly, the correction started shortly after investigations into manipulation were mentioned. I think that got the Wall Street gangsters nervous.
I’m suspicious of the sudden pop.
Sometimes the market reminds me of 6 year olds playing soccer — nobody stays in position, they all swarm after the ball like fruit flies.
“Wha’? That’s a good buy? I thought it was a sell.”
(Scamper scamper scamper.)
Can’t speak for the entire commodity complex, but have you tried buying Silver or Gold in the past few days? They are out at most of the huge suppliers of the popular products..silver Eagles, 100oz bars are sold out. 4-6 week wait. Hedgies, and paper traders are bailing, but there seems to be a huge undercurrent of physical accumulation. Sure you can trade paper futures, but just try to get a hold of something tangible. I think all those with x amount in all those FDIC accounts will see what value is if there indeed turns out to be a run on more than a few banks…you keep selling, I’ll keep buying..
moi aussi. lots of discussion by sorts like Rob Kirby re this inexplicable shortage.
Well, I don’t know about you, but I use a long-term monthly chart of crude oil going back to mid-1990s. Long-term upsloping trendline is still intact. No problems at all. That trendline is actually at around $80, so I would consider that a normal pullback. Last time oil touched the trendline, it was at about $60, during decline in Jan. 2006.
Same with gold and silver. Long-term upsloping trendlines are intact. As long as the long-term trend is intact, ride it out.
BTW, USA Today just had a headline recently that said:
“Commodity Bull Run May Be Over”
No, not if USA Today is telling you it’s over.
Gold slumps below $800 as dollar extends rally
Gold fell below $800 for the first time this year as the recent commodity rally continued to unwind and the dollar hit new highs against the euro, sterling and the yen as fears of a global slowdown grew - 10:20
* Dollar hits 7-month high as metals prices tumble
* London lifted as commodity prices fall
* Eurozone edges closer to recession
* London lifted as commodity prices fall
* Demand weakness hurts gold
August 15, 2008 7:36 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
Dollar rallies; gold sub-$800
With five of G7 economies down, greenback up’s while metals drop
Market shift to the dollar and away from gold and oil gains momentum among investors.
• Silver paces latest pullback as metals traders cash out positions
INDICATIONS
Growing conviction among the bulls
Wall Street’s looking to open on a comfortably higher note, carrying over from Thursday gains.
Everything seems a little too bullish to me. The trend is your friend, until it isn’t.
Wow PB,
You kind of like rubbing it in.
I generally just post articles here. Some aurophilic posters here take it to a far more personal level than I do.
Alas, poor Auric…
I don’t get it . Professor Bear is a extremely objective and relevant poster on this blog . I read everyones opinions ,including PB ,and I find PB to be very astute .I don’t need to defend PB ,because he can defend himself with his own merits ,but I always take a close look at what PB is saying or a article he is posting .
Viewed through the lens of an extreme point of view, resolute objectivity appears extremely contrarian.
I passed a beggar on 42nd Street today. I tossed him a gold coin and he cursed and threw it back at me. Is that a buy signal?
So fools gold crashes through the $800 level right through it’s support at 840. But we’re running out of gold and nobody wants to hold currency right?
Just as small hole in the “hold Gold its recession proof” and other arguments. I can’t eat it, heat my house with or do much else. Its only relative and now its off its high (in % terms) as much as my local real estate market is……..
Too bad the beggar didn’t know about the liquor store in my hood that turns Krugerrands into Night Train.
But, tragically, the consumption of Night Train turns bowel movements into liquid gassy smelly diarrhea.
The consumption of Night Train turns walking humans into gutter jelly…
You should have tossed him a dime and told him to “buy himself a stew” (unless his name is Gayle Wynand).
Improper spelling: Gail Wynand.
I can’t let that one go unpunished.
oops - my bad…memory.
I just love our spelling Bees! haha
NO!
Gold, Silver Slump, Leading Commodities Drop on Dollar, Growth
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) — Gold plunged below $800 an ounce, silver dropped as much as 12 percent and oil, corn and copper slumped as the dollar’s rebound reduced the appeal of commodities after a six-year boom.
Palm oil tumbled as much as 9 percent, and rubber and wheat fell as the dollar headed for its longest winning streak in more than two years and on concern a spreading global economic slowdown will reduce demand for raw materials.
Commodities, measured by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI index, have tumbled 21 percent from their record July 3, descending into a bear market. Oil traded near its lowest for more than three months, gold for eight months and silver for almost a year. Copper and corn reached six-month lows this week.
“Prices have made a peak,” said investor Marc Faber, 62, who publishes the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. “Whether that is a final peak or an intermediate peak followed by higher prices, we don’t know yet. It could go lower,” he said by phone today from Chiang Mai, Thailand.
Gold fell to $782.27 an ounce, its lowest since Dec. 3, at 9:52 a.m. London time today. Silver’s 12 percent drop was the most since June 2006 and the metal traded at $12.905 an ounce, down 9 percent.
“Whether that is a final peak or an intermediate peak followed by higher prices, we don’t know yet. It could go lower,”
Where the f— do I get a job like this? “It could go lower.” F—ing brilliant. These guys are priceless in their precision. Excuse me while I go slam my head in a door 93 times. “It could hurt.”
“Palm oil tumbled as much as 9 percent,”
Oh, no, NOT the palm oil! I’m doomed!
Lol.
I thought the price of greasing palms in Washington was on the increase?
The price of “special socks” is also plummeting.
poor palmy
Ah but palm oil is not only really bad for you, its in a lot of cookies, crackers and other fancy Walmart items that (over)feed the masses….
GOLD DOWN…but US Treasury backed MAGIC BEANS …SOAR
If that was a Gold Eagle, you might want to keep it. The US Mint just suspended all production of Gold US Eagles last night.
Why would they keep stamping these things while the price plummets?
Why not? They were stamping them when gold was at $250 and all the way up. Isn’t that their job? The price of gold should be irrelevant to the mint.
Question - how does purchase vs. selling price work at the mint? With most businesses the profit is most affected by the “margin” - being the delta between:
Purchase price of components +
Production cost
= Cost to make
minus
Sales cost
In the case of the mint, one would think this also comes into play. The mint of course has to purchase gold, presumably for market prices. Does the mint then report its “profit” in large part based on the delta between the market price of gold when it bought it vs. the market price of gold when it sells it?
If so - then might the mint now be showing a loss if it sells too much gold, if the bulk of its gold was purchased at the recent high prices, and now it tries to sell at the current lower prices?
If so - then might that be why they’re choosing not to sell gold eagles?
P.S. I’m actually being devils advocate to my own comment down below. In reality I’ve never heard of the mint doing such a thing - it seems like such behavior is very counter to the normal behavior of the mint. Usually they cancel things if costs get too *high*, not too low - e.g. canceling silver quarters when silver got too high, and canceling copper pennies when copper got too high. However - that’s for fixed-price items where the price isn’t dependent on the commodity cost. For commodity-cost based items (i.e. bullion) perhaps the principle is different. It is interesting that the mint has been ramping up production of gold and silver coins these past few years as prices have been high and rising, but now stopping production as prices drop.
I don’t know how their business model works. That being said, they could easily take orders and go into the futures market with confirmed orders to buy enough metal to fill those orders at a profit. Why shut down a whole production line with all the attendant costs that would entail? I’m baffled as usual.
I’m guessing that there’s too much lag. I’ve never done it, but it seems like when someone orders a coin or coins from say usmint.gov, they’d expect them to arrive within a few days or a a week or so, which means probably they would have already had to have been minted. Plus even so I’m sure the mint needs to have some reserve inventory of bullion - no way they could actually wait until an order comes and then acquire the bullion for that order. At least that’s been my observation in high-volume-type businesses (I work in one in tech).
Usually they cancel things if costs get too *high*, not too low - e.g. canceling silver quarters when silver got too high, and canceling copper pennies when copper got too high.
You have to distinguish between circulated money and bullion. In the case you site here, these were circulated coins. If the value of the metal content of the coin is higher than the stated value in dollars the coins will be removed from circulation, thwarting the pupose of the mint in that regard (to provide coins for general use/circulation).
The eagles are different b/c they aren’t intended for circulation. They are simply a way for the mint to provide bullion. Being coined and stamped gives the coins some legitimacy to their gold content (as opposed to being some glob of metal of unknown content; and to the extent one trusts the mint). So if the mint stops making eagles, it’s not comparable to the situation of not making silver quarters in the 60’s.
It’s conceivable that they would stop making eagles not because of the absolute price of gold is lower, but b/c they expect the downward movement to be too fast to recoup the cost of gold and coinage.
E.g. let’s say they buy gold at $800. They coin it and by the time it hits the market, gold is worth 799. Well, that might be fine. Lets say they charge dealers $20 over spot so they get $814 and that covers their costs.
But imagine the price drops much faster, say its down $50 by the time the coin hits the market. If the cost to coin is $15, then they have to charge $815 to break even. But if spot is 750, that means dealers are now paying $65 over spot instead of $21 over. If the mint perceives that dealers would be unwilling to pay that premium, then they have to either issue and sell those coins at a loss or stop making them until the downward movement of gold slows down or reverses.
For the conspiracy theorists:
Maybe the mint knows something we don’t? Or maybe they were ordered to stop making those coins by someone who knows something we don’t?
You read my mind. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the US Mint hedges PM risk on things like Eagles to buffer them against changes between acquisition of the metal and the sales of the coins.
If the premium in the market for the coins isn’t enough to cover the cost of the hedge against the fall in currency prices, then they logically should not stamp out new coins.
If the expectation in the market is that the price of gold will fall in the near term, then an instrument that pays you in the event prices fall should be quite expensive, which would potentially cause the US Mint to take it’s recent action.
On the way up, such a hedge is cheap. On the way down, such a hedge is expensive.
Or is that too logical?
To illustrate, look at the Option chain for GLD.
Yesterday, closing GLD price was $79.35. The cost to hedge at $79 in September was $2.50, or 3.15% of the then current price.
Today, the closing GLD price was $77.63. The cost to hedge at $77 in September is $2.60, or 3.35%.
A week ago, what was the premium to hedge that risk until September? I’m assuming less than 3.15% of last week’s spot price.
By the way, today is option expiry for August Puts; buying a hedge for 30+ days might be more than the mint needs to hedge, and is very expensive to do so given expectations. 3.35% on $792 is $26.50 of hedging costs per coin. As we get closer to September option expiry, or as the downward slide slows, this hedging cost will lessen.
What is a “normal” premium paid on the open market for a Gold Eagle? $20?
I think the mint stopping has everything to do with hedging costs, and very little to do with their inability to buy physical gold at today’s spot price.
I wonder how that exacerbates the slide downward in spot prices???
I don’t know what the normal markup is. I own one coin, a half ounce, and it was a gift.
My guess is the mint wouldn’t do a lot of hedging because they aren’t really seeking a profit.
A normal company has to keep doing business to make money, so they might hedge against big price movements, but the govt can just step out for a bit if things get a little hairy. They don’t have to keep doing business.
They aren’t seeking a profit, but they don’t want to lose money either.
The hedge is to protect them from falling gold prices.
They buy gold at today’s price, but presumably they sell it at whatever prices are one week from now (or however long it takes to process the raw gold into coins).
I would be rather upset as a partial owner in the US Mint if they DIDN’T hedge against rapid falls in gold prices.
Whoa, auger, any reason why? Not a good sign, IMO.
No reason given. I got it off of the boards but http://www.apmex.com is reporting the same on their opening page. Demand for coins is apparently off the chart and most dealers are reporting sold out inventory over the past couple of days. I have no idea what is going on.
RE: Demand for coins is apparently off the chart and most dealers are reporting sold out inventory over the past couple of days. I have no idea what is going on.
A survivalist mentality is taking over.
Certain informed people are coming to the conclusion that the roll of toilet paper hanging next to their commode will be worth more than the paper in their wallet over the long haul.
So I should hold on to my scrap gold? Hey, ya never know when that damaged figaro link bracelet from Italy will buy a house!
“Demand for coins is apparantly off the chart and most dealers are reporting sold out inventory over the past couple of days.”
Hmmmm. A blast from the past:
Demand for Beanie babys is apparantly off the chart and most dealers are reporting sold out inventory over the past couple of days.
I’d bet given the chance, the Lydians would have rather used beanie babies for money in lieu of Silver & Gold, over 2,500 years ago…
Hmmmm. A blast from the past:
Demand for Beanie babys is apparantly off the chart and most dealers are reporting sold out inventory over the past couple of days.
Last time I checked they didn’t manufacture gold in Asian sweatshops.
Yup, those Lydians really knew what they were doing. We should all do what they did.
From 540 B.C. to 1933, virtually every government in the western world used Silver & Gold as money.
How’s that stack up against your current 75 year reign of error?
RE: So I should hold on to my scrap gold? Hey, ya never know when that damaged figaro link bracelet from Italy will buy a house!
It was the only thing which would buy a German family a couple of bushels of potatoes to keep his family from starving to death after WW I. From the drying up of the coin market.
I guess there are sufficient numbers who give heed to the adage-those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.
Bet if you were a Georgian at the moment, you’d wish to fook you had a few fiago bracelets in the sack on your back.
The mint tries to maintain some sort of balance between the cost of a coin and it’s price in the secondary market.
If I paid $1,200 for a coin and the price of gold then falls, my coin is worth less. If they continue to mint a gazillion more coins, my coin will be worth FAR less.
If that happens, I and other customers will be FAR less inclined to buy the next issue.
The very high and rising price of gold is the only reason this last issue was minted in such large quantities..
That’s some pretty serious straw-grasping, I have to say. You’re saying the mint itself is manipulating prices?
Your logic is counter to everything the mint’s been doing lately. They’ve been spewing out all kinds of crap coins en masse - state quarters, presidential dollars, etc. to try to make money. If they were worried about causing reduced demand by flooding the market for something, they wouldn’t have been doing that.
of course the mint cares about the quantity of collector coins they release.. quantity has to be the #1 determiner of collector value.
I’m gonna do you gold bugs a favor. I am always wrong when i try to predict market movement. So, I will predict gold falls to .. $770 by the close.
It’s bound to go up today… you can thank me later.
joey doesn’t quite understand that you need the actual physical Gold, in order to mint said Eagle Coins…
Why else would they stop selling an extremely popular product, that is in high demand?
Joey, there is a difference between bullion coins and numismatic coins.
“I’m gonna do you gold bugs a favor. I am always wrong when i try to predict market movement. So, I will predict gold falls to .. $770 by the close.”
More likely it’ll close at $750.
Because they bought the gold at prices north of $900 and now they know that nobody will buy an eagle for $915 when the spot price is under $800.
Using your very logic…
Just switch out Houses for Gold, and why are there so many overpriced homes for sale, compared to so little physical Gold, currently?
One was a bubble, the other isn’t.
I bought at $270, $450, $500, $600, $730, $630, $750, $800, $920, $1023, $900, and various other numbers in those regions. I continue to buy gold and I don’t worry about the half year fluctuations. Emotionless buying of different assets makes it more likely I will stay out of the souplines.
Why isn’t gold a bubble? If supply and demand were truly driving prices, then Gold should be going up, as should oil…. If I lost 21% on my recent gold investment (I didn’t) then when do I say I got taken by a bear market vs. a bubble?
If Gold was just a mere commodity, I might buy the bubble premise, but the fact is, it’s had a dual use as money for thousands of years, the ultimate fallback position, when push meets shove financially.
Many commodities bulls love to preach that there cannot be a bubble in gold, oil, etc. But those commodities are subject to massive specualtive demand just as is housing. That simple.
Why can’t it be both? That would mean you could consider its price in terms of components. One component of its price would be derived from its value as money, while another component of its price is comprised of current speculation.
Agree that historically and theoretically you are absolutely correct. My problem is that if there comes time where I need gold to buy groceries, as a practical matter, I am so screwed it won’t really matter. Its a risk I won’t insure against by buying gold, which for me, leaves gold strictly as an investment vehicle. If they won’t let Fannie or Freddie fail, I can’t ever see the need for gold, for if we do, I’d rather have guns and ammo than gold as the US would have to be in a doomsday scenario and no amount of gold is going to save me anyway. Not trying to be a troll, just letting you know how I see it in my own simple way.
They were limiting the amount of silver eagles for the past few months..As above, there is shortages ,and unavailabilty of most popular products during this sell off..People are dumping paper options ,and “trying” to buy physical,but can’t. I guess some of you anti-gold guys will be standing in the FDIC line waiting for your check to reddem for FED IOU’s. ME? I have a little somethin’ to bribe the border guards.
so, if the dollar is stupid worthless paper and gold is the only true currency, a gold bug should rejoice at lower prices, since he can have more units of true currency per every paycheck s/he receives in our fake currency.
Precisely how I see it. I’m buyin’. Live in a smallish area which still has a supply of maple leafs and eagles. None of the pretty new silver guys tho…..just like everywhere else
“The US Mint just suspended all production of Gold US Eagles last night.”
Didn’t the US Mint last year or earlier this year suspend production of Gold US Eagles?
Krugerrands now sell for $40 over spot, a coin that sold for closer to $4 over spot, a year ago…
There are a multitude of buyers for every seller of physical, and now that the U.S. Mint is out of the picture, where will coin dealers replenish their stocks?
We could easily end up with a 2-tiered market as supplies of the real deal dwindle.
The spot price of Gold might just mean not much, if people get panicked and have to have physical, and are willing to pay $100-200 over spot per oz. to get them…
Hopefully folks are smart enough to figure out that they can go into the futures market and stand for delivery if they absolutely have to get physical. Of course that would take quite a bit more money than what is necessary to buy a couple of eagles. Regardless, I don’t think a bifurcated market can last long if it is due to a shortage of the metal,IMO.
I’ll be interested in hearing the reasoning behind the suspension of production by the mint.
Where does the U.S. Mint get the Gold to make Eagle Coins?
Let’s go down that road, to find the answer to their sudden stopping of sales of such.
“Where does the U.S. Mint get the Gold to make Eagle Coins?”
Pawn shops, maybe?
Well, according to the future’s market they can get all they want at sub $800. I don’t know why they would be reluctant to do so. I suspect we will find out over the next few days.
The idea that the mint is trying to protect the value of the earlier minted coins is crazy talk. These are bullion coins and track the spot price of gold plus a small minting premium. When the mint trys to add a rarity premium to a coin they announce it as a limited edition minting. I doubt even these bozos will try to run that excuse flag up the pole.
As I recall, we are approaching the time of year when the mint switches over to the next year’s coin. I wonder if that is what is going on? Seems like they could just take orders for the 2009 edition if that was the case? Baffling.
Indirectly, yes.
Gold is continually recycled and quite simply never goes away.
It just changes form…
…. they can go into the futures market and stand for delivery if they absolutely have to get physical.
I read last month someone who bought for future delivery had his check returned after 3 weeks of waiting when they had their shortage at Perth Mint..
that’s the problem with paper..it can multiplied exponentially which is happening now..Losing billions at every brokerage ,and bank lately,and it’s business as usual..issue another billion shares and add it to the bottom line.
I have spent the last two days trying to buy silver. There is NO SILVER available at the current prices unless you want 1000 oz bars (too heavy for me). The price of PMs could fall by 50%, and you still would not be able to buy. It seems paper and physical prices have decoupled.
RE: There is NO SILVER available at the current prices
Start buying bulk ammo and expensive liquor.
1000 rounds of .223 caliber (if you can find it) easily up 100% over the last 2 years.
Me too, I’ve been looking for US silver eagles to no avail. I can get Maples from a couple of sites. Try http://www.apmex.com if you are interested in the maples, they have a limited supply left the last time I checked.
Surprise, Supplies, Surprise
(with apologies to Gomer Pyle, U.S.M.C.)
Thanks auger but those maples are $2.50 over spot; almost a 20% premium. Just goes to show that the ‘paper’ price of metal has no bearing on reality.
1000 rounds of .223 caliber (if you can find it) easily up 100% over the last 2 years.
This has more to do with the US fighting two wars right now and we’re burning through ammo like it’s going out of style… civilian supplies are low because most manufacturers are going all out trying to keep up with demand from the military.
I don’t think the masses have decided guns and ammo are better than dollars quite yet…
That’s because the metal itself has been abstracted away into something that is simply “traded”.
I have read several articles that point out that the electronic funds allow naked shorting. This means that people are buying shares of gold/silver that are not backed by anything more than a promise to pay gold/silver…. hrmn, where have we heard of this scam before?
A shortage / lack of physical gold/silver is a good indication that the ETF cannot possibly secure the physical metals to satisfy its sales at the “spot price”.
Combine this with the central banks colluding to prop up the dollar and you can easily explain the sudden correction.
As always you should question all official statistics and markets manipulated by big banks / big government. This latest surge in the dollar and fall in gold/silver has really convinced a lot of people that things have stabilized and that those calling for the collapse of the dollar are “chicken little’s”.
Well, as a veterinarian , I am happy to be finally able to sell my old xrays for their silver content instead of having to pay to have them disposed of. I only got .25 a lb, but that’s still something.
RE: I don’t think the masses have decided guns and ammo are better than dollars quite yet…
LMAO!
I liked the stories during the LA riots when all the Clintonite anti-gunners ran to their local gun shop to score a little “home defense” security, as not much confidence was being placed in their assortment of “Neighborhood Watch” signs.
Unfortunately, for them there was a no-sale ban on, and all the shop owner’s had closed up and boogied for a vaca down in the Carribbean.
I think some were able to secure some anti-dog pepper spray like the postman carries to protect their families from the looting goons and brigands.
The local mint in Canada explained that they invented the process that enebles them to plate nickels. I was disappointed that a nickel was not made of pure or mostly pure nickel amymore. Maybe some gold coins have a lead base?
Calgary home prices fall 8%
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=14366dd6-fb80-4291-a225-8b46cbfa6957
Led by declines of eight per cent in Calgary and five per cent in Edmonton, average house prices in Canada dropped 3.6 per cent overall in July compared with a year ago, according to the report.
The average national MLS residential sale price last month was $327,020, while in Calgary it was $402,788. In Edmonton, it was $335,100, said the report.
MLS sales dropped 10.9 per cent in Canada in July.
Another “it can’t happen here location” is now happening.
Condo story…A couple both work at my office. They recently (in the last two years, I think) bought a one bedroom condo as an investment in No Va. Near metro, good nabe, etc. They have a tenant, but the rent does not cover the monthly costs. Got a phone call about two weeks ago - water, water everywhere, ceiling fell in on their tenant, total disaster. Problem seems to have originated in the condo upstairs. And….upstairs guy has no insurance. He claims it is a mixup. RIght.
The upstairs condo is gutted, but the guy says he was fixing it up. Since he was fairly easy to contact, it might be true, but their insurance adjustor is going to investigate him anyway. Wondering if there is any fraud involved.
In a fairly thoughtless moment, and trying to comfort her, I said they might end up owning two condos. She immediately retorted something along the lines of, “Not if he’s underwater.” I think she was thinking of their situation. I don’t know how much they put down, but there is certainly a glut of cute one bedroom condos in No Va near the metro.
When I first talked to him about it when they first bought, questioning whether it was really the best time to buy, he told me with great confidence that the key to real estate investing was the leverage, so it was a great deal.
Well, they themselves were underwater in a very literal sense :-).
In principle I have no objection to condos, but they always seem to be subject to this boom/bust cycles caused by overbuilding, and the inevitable presence of specuvestors.
Being next to Metro is always going to be a plus though - if gas is 5$/gallon next summer, that will be a popular selling point. More than some house out in the exurbs that is miles from everything.
But very few people want to live in a one bedroom condo long term. And with the transaction costs involved in buying and selling and the extremely limited amount that gets paid against principle at the start of a mortgage, you have to want to live there very long term to have any chance of making money in market with normal appreciation (never mind the current situation of long term depreciation). So unless your costs of owning are actually lower than the cost of renting, it makes no sense to buy one at all. They are losing a few hundred bucks a month over the rental income and I bet they put a small amount down too.
She once told me she wanted to sell before she retired in a few years. I told her that she could sell it now if she really wanted to. That got a combo reaction of “not going to give it away” and “have to wait for the market to stabilize.” I did mention that the market might stabilize even lower than it is now, not higher, but I work with this woman, so I couldn’t really go beyond that.
but as energy prices go up, more people will want 700-1100 sq ft instead of 2000 sq ft.
Builder Urban Joins Failures
Of Japan’s Real-Estate Sector
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865250788337637.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Japanese property developer Urban Corp. filed for court-led rehabilitation Wednesday when it collapsed with 255.83 billion yen ($2.34 billion) in liabilities, becoming the nation’s biggest corporate failure so far this year.
Broker pleads guilty in Coast Bank case
http://www.bradenton.com/news/local/story/811336.html
In his plea deal, entered Tuesday, Miller admitted he overcharged clients of his Tampa mortgage company American Mortgage Link, who took out home loans from Coast Bank. He said he then divided the proceeds with a former Coast executive.
“but there is certainly a glut of cute one bedroom condos in No Va near the metro.”
Sure, but think on the bright side.
They may be one of the very few proud owners of a cute one bedroom condo in No Va near the metro…… that is severely water damaged
Except they are fixing it. They have to. They have an obligation to provide a livable space to their tenant. The question is when the insurance company will cough up the money so they aren’t out of pocket for too long. And whether the condo’s insurance company will pay for the damage that is its responsibility. And whether the upstairs guy is totally judgement proof or can be forced to cover their deductible. And how much vacation time one or the other willl have to burn supervising the repairs. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Gah.
Stories like that make me glad not to be a landlord.
A friend of mine actually managed to sell his one bedroom condo this week after it was on the market for nearly a year. (He and his wife moved from Chicago to the Bay area for work.) It was the only serious offer on the place. He took a small loss, plus the mortgage / utility / HOA payments over that period, but he seemed relieved to be getting out at any cost.
He briefly thought about going the rental route, too, but quickly thought through possible disaster scenarios like the one your workmates seem to be in. He decided he couldn’t possibly be a landlord — especially from half a continent away.
Just an fyi, you can add a lost income clause to most insurance policies for investment properties. I have one that pays out on my 4-family when tenants have to move out because of a claim (like water damage) or the building is a total loss and has to be rebuilt.
Hey, but farmers are getting some good prices for their land in Washington State.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26105511/
He let it go too cheap.
“In one case, drug operatives approached a farmer who didn’t have his farm listed for sale. He resisted until, asked to name a price. He threw out a figure: $263,000 for 27 acres and no building. The buyer showed up a few days later and bought the property in cash, Beghtol said.”
A farmer can expect to get 50 Cents per ounce for Pot Marjoram, or $400 an ounce for America’s number one cash crop…
That $399.50 difference between the 2 looms large.
Especially in the Medical Mary Jane state, where one’s horticultural skills can translate to premium prices for potent or exotic herb.
Thar’s gold in them hills …
There’s a good article in the July 28th New Yorker about the Mota-vation of easy profits in California…
I view medical marijuana cards with some caution however.
To obtain one, you need have something like a hangnail injury, or some other like malady, and $125, and get your smoking jacket on, and light up legally, dude.
The selection of different grades of fine herb @ dispensaries might cause many an amsterdam coffee shop to blush, as there is plenty of variation…
But by telling the government that you are indeed a user of the weed, doesn’t seem very smart, when nobody really cares if you partake in the Golden State, anyway.
I read that New Yorker article; it was interesting in its scope but I wish the author spent more time on the end users, especially those with terminal illnesses, chronic pain and such. (And, as a minor nitpick, what a poor opening illustration to accompany the article. Poor in its tone/voice, not its execution.)
Among my friends in Cali, it seems they’re divided about 50/50 in terms of registering with the state or operating through the traditional backchannels.
Actually there is quite a strong wine industry in this part of the state - I know because I live here. That land went cheap actually! Wine grapes can sell for up to $1600 per ton. On 27 acres you could probably get 3-4 ton per acre. That can be very lucrative and not get you several years of free room and board!
A typical wine bottle would hold around $1000.00 worth of herb inside.
Unless you are talking about some rare chez snob vintage, you are out of your league financially, growing alcohol vs. growing the kind.
The federal government needs to legalize marijuana in order to take the profit out of it. That will deal a blow to the Mexican drug cartels who are operating all over this state (Washington). In turn, the saved resources can be used to fight the real cancer, meth, as well as other hard drugs. Marijuana is NOTHING compared to meth, cocaine, heroine, and is much less harmful than alcohol, though smoking anything is terrible for ones health.
A friend in law enforcement was in on a little 420,000 plant bust in the Sierra foothills, a few weeks ago…
It was the usual m.o., a bunch of campesinos were the gardeners, and the higher up Michoacánarcos were nowhere to be seen.
The crops would have had a street value of close to a Billion Dollars had they not been intercepted by the Feds.
The cost to the cartel to grow them and bring them to market?
Perhaps a few Million Dollars…
Bit over a year ago, co-worker was buying a new house.
Great deal he says, $50K off. $25K deposit put down.
Spent 6 months trying to sell his old house, no luck. As closing approaches on he new house, he is torn. Back and forth, back and forth… Gonna walk, gonna close. Decides to walk, builder keeps coming back to him with bigger price drops. Ends up getting another $40K in price cuts from builder.
So, he decides to pull old house off the market for a year waiting for the market to recover, lease it out at slightly positive cash flow because he owes less than it is worth, and close on the new house.
He tells me he’ll be fine as long as prices don’t fall another 20%. You won’t be fine, I tell him.
So, jump a year forward. No he is talking about selling the old house, buying another new house, then walking from the one he bought a year ago.
Why sell the old?, I ask.
He finally admits he had to borrow $100K from his parents to close on the new house a year ago. Money that is now gone since the new house is off about 30%. Needs to sell the old house to get the money to repay his parents.
So, I pull up info on his old house. He’s toast. Owes $100K. Zillow says $220K, but several listed at $200K and not selling. Assuming he lists 10% below others at $180K and is able to sell, 8-10% closing costs = $165K. Pay off the $100K mortgage and he’s only got $65Kto payback parents $100K loan.
I go back to him with bad news that there is no way he is going to be able to sell for $220K he needs.
So, he’s back to pestering me what he should do.
Get in your time machine and go back a year and do what I said back then. Now it is too late to do anything that will produce a positive outcome. You are toast.
He didn’t want to lose the $25K he put down on the new house and didn’t want to sell his old house for what was below market of the time. Instead, he lost $100K+ on the new house and $50K+ unrealized gain on the old, and he’snot going to be able to pay back his parents without a lot of pain.
“mom.. dad.. I wanna buy this house.. It’s a great opportunity! Can you front me $100,000?”
“GAG .. [cough] hahaaa.. hey kid.. I think you got that sense of humor from your father.”
“Not from me.. he’s your son.”
That is why i have no children
i would never ask my mom (she could not do it anyway)
or my in laws (they could) and actually have offered my wife and i 25k-50k towards our home purchase.
they are curious as to why i have not taken them up on their very generous offer. thanks hbb
i am not comfortable taking that kind of money and i do not want it held over my head (not that they would) but i sleep better knowing i owe noone a dime
“they are curious as to why i have not taken them up on their very generous offer.”
Best to avoid the “in-laws” noose. You’ve learned well, grasshopper!
I’m 49. My generation for the most part have/had parents who grew up in the Depression. No way would we ever dream that our parents would help us purchase a house. Maybe a used car as teens, but certainly never a house at any age.
So that co-worker in the story frittered away the $100,000 his parents loaned him. FSA - FAT SPOILED AMERICANS. I’m proud to be a thin non-smoking simple-living American (TNSSA)
My In-laws offered me six figures to buy a house. They have good intentions and they really want to us to take it. Of all their kids, my wife never borrowed money from them and I would advise not to. All their other kids, borrowed for their wedding (we had a small one but we paid for it), borrowed for their down, borrowed for small loans etc. They think we are poor and barely making it and their other kids are well off. I can tell you that it is totally the other way around. My wife’s brothers and sisters are totally in highwater debt. Can’t go on vacations anytime they want, they complain about money all the time, their kids ransack my kids rooms because they pretty much have all the cool stuff but they have a house, they have the SUV’s or the German cars but technically it is not theirs since they still owe on it. We are definitely making way more money than they are, probably 3x times more. We just don’t show it.
We are the only ones that can really afford a house (easily) in the high priced Bay Area, CA but timing is really bad. Again, my in-laws are great and they have good intentions and they are feeling guilty that they did not give us anything. I heard alot of whispering from the other kids that my-inlaws have rewritten their “wills” so that my wife pretty much gets everything when they pass away. I told her it’s a nice gesture but it will also be a huge headache because her siblings will do something stupid like sue us or demand to divide equally etc. etc.
I actually get along with my wife’s siblings. They just got caught up with all the “material” stuff you see all around the Bay Area. ” I must have what everybody has” or “My stuff is better than your stuff”.
Your story reminds me of a book ‘the millionare next door” has a few words on enabling children to live beyond their income and how that all works out to make them less likely to save money, unless they are school teachers.
That book and Harry Dent’s Roaring 2000s book were two of the most memorable books I read in the late 1990s. There were good themes to ponder in both books and my financial planning is influenced by elements of both.
The fallacy of “The Millionaire Next Door” is if your income greatly varies because you are in sales or because you are a contract engineer. Your income greatly can very year to year. So how can you measure yourself as an under accumulator of weath or prodigious accumulator of wealth in that case? However they are on the mark when they talk about “economic outpatient care.” I would never give a dime to my family (did years ago and was never paid back), except as gifts. I will leave my money to medical research instead, and also to Libertarian causes. The best gift a parent can give to his child is the gift of independence and the drive to produce.
Also Harry Dent was way wrong about his predictions for the stock market this decade. Now that’s memorable! Just like Howard Ruff’s book in the early 80s was totally wrong - “How to Prosper during the Coming Bad Years.”
My college nephew overseas watching our vacation house is out the door at the end of the semester, says my wife. He’s got a cushy position with paid for room and board and merely has to keep the place clean. This is after another aunt cut him loose earlier.
Instead, he’s spending his time not following the boss’s orders, virusing the computer with music downloads, making frivolous purchases, not performing reasonable accounting, not following through on promises, and otherwise giving my wife (the Boss) headaches.
Live and learn, grasshopper. (His auntie is hip enough to know when he’s on the computer from 14 time zones away. She doesn’t much like what’s on his Friendster account either. Lazy is one thing. Stupid and lazy is too much for her.)
I can’t complain overly though. We are in this position because the responsible nephew left to continue his career as a seaman. For the other one, the light at the end of the tunnel is the Real World Express.
Maybe he threatened to move back home if he didn’t get the 100k loan. “Sure son, is that all you need?”
LOL. I know plenty parents who paid their boomer-kids’ rent to keep them out of the house.
he just had to keep picking at his financial scab, didnt he?!?
Yeah that was my thought too. Just couldn’t say no to it.
In a word, absurd!
Well, at least he seems very clear on what HE wants.
My advice, rent it at a loss, then go work on Alaskan boats like that show “Most Dangerous Catch”.
“No he is talking about selling the old house, buying another new house, then walking from the one he bought a year ago.”
He needs to step away from the tables.
LOL, exactly. Some serious house buying OCD going on…
Americans paid more last month not only for gas and food but also for a variety of goods and services, including clothes, shoes, hotels and air travel, as inflation unexpectedly jumped to a 17-year high.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/14/AR2008081400733.html
The cost of living, led by the soaring cost of gasoline and food, is rising at the fastest rate since the recession of the early 1990s, the government said on Thursday, handing a de facto pay cut to the American worker.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/business/economy/15econ.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=business&adxnnlx=1218805485-oDBGG4PxY+4fY2g8yMxkzQ
IN-flation? No, no, no! I’m not listening (hands over ears) la la la la la la I don’t hear you.
Will we have deflation some day? Sure. Given enough time, any prediction will come true. However, deflation predictors are gonna need a LOT of time.
Speaking of hotels…..does anyone else get annoyed by all these local taxes that have been stacked on hotel rooms and rental cars? I’ve stayed at places where they added almost 20% to the “advertised” room rate.
Politicos love it, because they can generate money for all their pet projects by laying it off on someone else. To me, it is “taxation without representation”.
No, it’s not “taxation without representation.” More like, “When in Rome, pay what the Romans charge you, or don’t go there.”
Yep. It was topic of my very 1st blog.
http://planmytravel.blogspot.com/2008/01/big-warm-american-welcome.html
Impossible!
Inflation is contained! Everything is wonderful, and the dollar and stock market are up. All is well! Just keep pumping out dollars to prop up the mess…
Yeah - travel. My airline tickets for two trips in July between BWI and Phoenix were $645. My tickets upcoming for September are $332 and $445. Same cities. Inflation? Homey don’t think so.
July is peak travel season. September…isn’t. I don’t think in/de flation has much to do w it
Oil Rallies, Other Commodities Fall
http://tinyurl.com/6ycgsn
Oil fell on Monday and Tuesday, rallied on Wednesday, fell Thursday, and futures point lower today.
We’re well on our way to $200/bbl oil. lmao.
RE: We’re well on our way to $200/bbl oil. lmao.
Russian military adventureism is back!
Go get’em O’Bama Boy!
OPEC revenue exceeds US income tax receipts:
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) — OPEC is pulling in more money from oil sales than the U.S. government is raising from individual taxpayers.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ export revenue will surpass what the U.S. raised last year in individual income taxes. The cartel’s revenue may reach $1.174 trillion this year, edging U.S. personal income tax receipts for the first time since 1980, when gasoline shortages and the Iranian hostage crisis transfixed the country.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDuZLnxkKPGA
That stat wouldn’t bug me so much if taxes weren’t so high. However being what it is - that’s an incredibly scary stat. Just think of the political leverage that now OPEC holds.
GO SOLAR!
And just as in the 1980’s oil will fall and we’ll start buying big vehicles again. Wash, rinse, repeat…we’re stupid like that.
And if there was a tax that kept the price of oil at $120, taking 90% of the difference if the cost was lower, Americans would solve the energy crisis on their own:
The would keep conserving.
They would pursue alternatives.
U.S. fossil fuels would be competitive as a transitional measure.
No additional government action would be required. Everything that we need to do to get out of this, people started doing when the price of oil and gas went up.
No, we’d vote out those bastids who imposed the tax out of office.
“And just as in the 1980’s oil will fall and we’ll start buying big vehicles again. Wash, rinse, repeat…we’re stupid like that.”
Speak for yourself. I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that gas guzzlers will EVER come back into fashion. Not only are the big automakers changing their product, but the move into fuel efficient cars by the masses is unprecedented, and here to stay, IMO. Most of the people I know have had enough. One guy I know, who I would have thought the last to give up his big truck, is driving a Hyundai. There are even a few farmers using plow horses instead of tractors around here. The writing is on the wall, and that’s why there’s a lot of shants pitting by OPEC.
yup
If you’ve always felt it costs more to live here, you’re right.
Consumer prices in Greater Boston jumped 6.3 percent over the past year, the biggest surge in inflation since 1990 and the biggest increase in any metropolitan area, the Labor Department reported yesterday.
But soaring gasoline prices, high housing costs, and rising food prices were not the only bad news for the local economy.
The state reported yesterday that Massachusetts employers shed nearly 3,000 jobs in July, the first monthly job losses since April and another sign that the national economic downturn is taking a toll here. Rising inflation and declining employment are making the state’s economy look more and more like the nation’s.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/08/15/mass_feels_sting_of_inflation_job_cuts/
Lots of mutual funds are organized as Massachusetts business trusts. Many jobs in that industry in the area. I have a feeling the will be pulling back where ever possible.
Oops.
RE: The state reported yesterday that Massachusetts employers shed nearly 3,000 jobs in July,
I just read in the Glob that 32,000 men used to be employed by the Quincy shipyard constructing LNG tankers for General Dynamics until 1996 when the place was closed..
From the legions of stenciled F-250 pick-up’s I see, I think today most of these former ship builders now run low budget lawn mowing companies with their wives or GF’s coverin’ the health insurance loss with some make work elementary teacher’s aide job.
Onward and upward!
Corporate raiders hit Hermitage Capital
http://www.russiaprofile.org/page.php?pageid=Business+New+Europe&articleid=a1218182310
instead of doing anything to save the Russian state from this highly sophisticated and organized looting, two of our complaints were thrown out immediately; two were returned to the same Interior Ministry official we were complaining about (essentially, he was being asked to “investigate himself”); and one was thrown out for “lack of any crime committed.”
Went to a time share presentation last night to get my free Disney Land tickets. After the presentation the time comes to tell the no, the realhore sits down (I guess they have to use realtors) and does the high pressure sales push. I say I like you product but I need the contract to take home and read. She had a hissy. It was so funny.
She says we need $100 for the contract dont worry you have five weeks to cancel.
I say yea right.
She says “Im the one with the realtors license I cant lie”.
I look at here and say I always take the contract home to read.
She gets mad tears the carbon copy No form and says “you and your reading you probably want to read this to and drops it on the desk and storms off.
It was great fun . That is better than messing with car dealers. Instead off hotdogs and a coke I got Disney land tickets and a hotel stay.
Be sure to send a thank you card to the realtWhore.
RE: Be sure to send a thank you card to the realtWhore.
An autographed pic of the family layin’ around the hotel pool with the adults lholding a couple of huge Mai-tai’s, with the words-WISH YOU WERE HERE-BUT THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES would be far more appropriate.
It would induce a triple hissy fit!
During our Florida trip last year we stayed a couple of days in Orlando to do the Disney thing. There was an “information desk” in the hotel lobby manned by a freshly-scrubbed, college-age kid. He tried to get us to go to a free breakfast buffet nearby and I asked, “Is this for a time-share?” He answered yes, at which time I turned to my wife and asked rather loudly whether either my T-shirt or my forehead had the word “Stupid” on it.
My time-shares are all over the High Sierra…
I like your time shares aladinsane. Free they are. My time shares include Yosemite and the coast line here in the Bay Area.
It would be so much fun to brainstorm other responses to these high pressure tactics.
I vote for something like this - It all looks lovely, but you are providing a lot of amenties that I am sure I would never use. I don’t really see how I can afford to pay for all this luxury when it would really all be wasted on me and my rather pedestrian tastes.
How about:
I’m just here for the free tickets. Thanks.
Ooo…new idea inspired by Aladinsane’s comment below:
Do you know if you have to notify people when a sex offender uses a time share? Because it was really a complete misunderstanding….
It takes a special breed to be a sales person. Seriously.
I could only do such a thing if I really believed in the product I’m selling. That would require one of two things:
A. Either the product I’m selling would have to truly be the best product on the market, and worth the price, or
B. I’d have to be a clueless person who never actually investigated, or cared, whether the product I was selling was really worth it.
‘B’ is out - I’m just too thorough for such a thing. ‘A’ comes along once in a blue moon, and certainly isn’t the case for pretty much any real estate at this point in time. I don’t think it’s *ever* been the case for timeshares.
If I ever feel threatened by sales talk, I always bring up the news that i’m a convicted felon(not really), and you might as well be a leper, after that.
Exit stage left.
Never fails…
or that i am 6 weeks removed from my 2nd bankruptcy
that should get them to chill out
I was part of a MSM company selling nutrients. I was disillusioned at the start when I found that a guy near the top of the pyramid making $7,000,000 a year is obese, has serious eye problems, and other health problems. Maybe it was the supplements that caused all that to happen to him.
I guess he really believed in the product he was selling. Oh actually he was selling a pyramid.
I hate MSM schemes. They don’t contribute one penny to the GDP. Salespeople do not invent wonder drugs, new energy sources, new algorithms. They don’t add any value to society.
“I hate MSM schemes.” That’s a new one. I thought the MSM was in the business of distributing advertisting, news, lies, and distortions. But nutrients sold by pyramid schemes?
the soviet union didn’t have salesmen
plenty of gov workers though
Cuba’s at over 80% govnics
awesome peter
wish i could have seen it
$100 for the contract lol
http://tv.yahoo.com/contributor/1028501/news/urn:newsml:tv.ap.org:20080815:people_ed_mcmahon__ER:22067
Probably all ready posted, but The Donald to the rescue to Too Old to Foreclose ED. Ed looks 110 in this picture. And he looks better than The Donald. He looks like he went a full 12 with the 20 year Iron Mike from his prime days. What a piece of $H!t.
The Devout Neo-Cons standard operating procedure has been to cover up one mess with another, and it looks like Iran was a no go, but Georgia looks very promising, to load the plate even higher, at our all-you-can-spend war buffet.
Here’s a new one. Apparently Trump is now an answer to the foreclosure crisis, provided of course you can convince him to be compassionate about everyone’s situation in American and not just Ed McMahon’s.
LOL
Trump to buy McMahon’s home, let him live there
BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. (AP) — Donald Trump will soon be Ed McMahon’s landlord.
Trump announced Thursday he would save the television personality’s Beverly Hills mansion from foreclosure by buying it for an undisclosed amount and leasing it to McMahon.
The developer told the Los Angeles Times he doesn’t know McMahon personally, but acted out of compassion because helping out “would be an honor.”
http://tinyurl.com/5hd7gs
He might be on to a good business model:
- Buy mansion from retiree who can no longer afford living expenses
- Pay enough for home so retiree can afford to pay to lease back the home
- Sell home once retiree is deceased or has moved away
I am sure there are many others in Ed McMahon’s situation for whom such a deal could potentially be mutually beneficial for the retiree and investors, but it would be important to structure such deals to ensure investors didn’t overpay.
Hereeeee’s Donnieeeee!
(sidekicks never die, they just get recycled)
Goodlawd. Now we are going to see him hawking Don Trumps seminars. Can you just see it now?
desertdweller..LOL …
Donald Trump just sold his house in Florida ,so he has equity cash right now to burn . I was wondering when some high profile person was going to buy Ed McMahon’s home. Trump is buying a house ,(most likely at a good price )with a ready made renter in his 80’s . Tell me how this is a act of compassion ? It would be bad for the real estate business to watch them kick out a well known person with medical problems ,in spite of Ed McMahon doing it to himself by trying to keep the lifestyle he had when he was working .
There is more to this than meets the eye, imho. Of all the folks who deserve a bail out, Ed isn’t one. He’s made millions, and had opportunities we all couldn’t even dream of. Ed is a manipulative, cry baby putz, and his wife is a piece of work too. Shame on all three of them. Integrity is priceless.
Oh ,I agree with you awaiting wipeout . I bet the Donald got the bank to give him a nice short sale price to put this public matter out of
spotlight .
are you short “hal”?
[sings while slowing down]
HAL: Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do. I’m half crazy all for the love of you. It won’t be a stylish marriage, I can’t afford a carriage. But you’ll look sweet upon the seat of a bicycle built for two.
thank you alad,
that song will now be in my head all day long! LOL
Asset prices seem to generally want to deflate today, although stock prices appear to be buoyed by a visible hand while commodities do not.
If the mood is so bullish, how come the DJIA keeps bouncing off the flat line like a cat off a hot tin roof? The mendacity of MSM financial shills is truly disgusting.
August 15, 2008 1:26 P.M.ET
BULLETIN
Cheap crude = bullish mood
Oil decline again spells stock gains, with financials again claiming a slot in the vanguard. Overseas markets also notch Friday advances.
Meanwhile, back in the old country…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/aug/15/renting.property
Rents will fall by up to 10% this year, according to some of Britain’s biggest letting agents, as a wave of properties that owners and developers can’t sell have started to flood the rental market.
The fall in rents will bring welcome relief to tenants but will squeeze buy-to-let landlords who now face a triple whammy of falling property values, sliding rental income and rising mortgage costs. To add to their misery, the Law Commission this week issued proposals on “encouraging responsible letting” that are likely to drive up administrative costs for landlords.
it gets even better later in the article, leading up to:
“Recent buy-to-let investors may find themselves facing a 90% capital loss if they borrowed 90% of their property value,” says Laith Khalaf of Hargreaves Lansdown. “Property investors may be forced to sell up prematurely because interest payments become unaffordable. The real test of affordability is to come in 2009/10 when those who borrowed large sums at relatively cheap rates in 2007 come off two and three-year fixed deals.”
Trump Buys Ed McMahaon’s B.H. house and leases it back to McMahon. - heard on CNBC this morning.
Trump explains that McMahon is a national treasure.
LOL
McMahonsion?
hey-ooo
Can someone here tell me how Zillow works? I do not understand why Zillow seems to always price houses 20-30k more.
Zillow me this…
An empty room in an empty house, nobody home, no offers, no interest whatsoever.
Your next step is the Foreclosure Zone~
At least in my old Florida neighborhood (zipcode 33166) Zillow appears to be plotting the curve, but with a lag of a little over a year.
We first started thinking about cashing out in January 2005, at that point all the realtards and appraisers told us we’d get $475K within days of listing. Looking at today’s Zillow 5-year graph, they have us valued at about $360 at that time.
Well, one thing led to another and we didn’t get on the market until November ‘05. The first tightening up in Florida loan availability was just coming into play and we wound up closing in May ‘06 for $450. Zillow had us at $463 on the day of closing.
Zillow held our house value at $440-450 until almost the end of 2007, but ever since then it’s been dropping steadily. Actual sales in our neighborhood show that prices began to drop in Oct-Nov 2006.
This morning, Zillow has the house at 347K, but I know that the house right behind us on the next street (same size, same age, a little bit rougher cosmetically) just sold for $248. So I expect our old house to be at that point on Zillow by early 2009. Overall if I look at Zillow on date X, I see the real sale price on date (X plus 15 months).
I can show you homes in Ohio that are being sold at sheriff sales, appraised in the twenties, minimum bids in the teens, that Zillow has listed as valued in the 50′S and 60′S. Quite a lag!
It’s a relatively simple regression model. Basically it tracks certain variables (zip code, lot size, square footage, etc) according to county records and then, comparing those variables for homes that have recently sold to produce an estimate for the current value of any house for which that same data is available. At best, it will lag during volatile markets, but should capture the general trends.
Like KBB for used car shopping, it has some limited utility for a departure point for further analysis, but it is unlikely to correctly predict the precise value for a specific property.
Thanks to everyone who posted. I was wondering because Zillow keeps showing my daughters house in Colorado at 174k when the same model a street away have sold for under 140k. They want to sell and move to NJ and think that they can get close to the Zillow price.
Here’s a little something for the gold bugs and deflationists. From Kevin Depew at Minyanville.
GDX
The panic selling in gold and mining shares has accelerated and the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has blown through another retracement level that “could” have served as a potential stopping point. This is an important session. A close below 34.43 would increase the probability that the selloff is not done and note we still have an unfulfilled DeMark TD-Sequential buy countdown in place, this bar currently on 8 of a potential 13. I would like to be more positive on the metal itself, but my take is this is panic selling related to
a buildup of longer-term deflationary pressures in the credit markets that will dwarf the inflationary mask of (formerly surging) food and energy costs.
When debt and leverage are this excessive, cyclical inflation simply accelerates the deflationary outcome and makes the unwind more severe. Watching the Consumer Price Index is like driving over a cliff with your eye on the rear view mirror. Deflationary pressures will cause bids to evaporate and disappear as financial assets that must be sold to repair balance sheets and destroy debt overwhelm the capital available to compete for them.
Few see this coming because the leveraging of debt in our economy simply to get it to work has been so massive, so all-encompassing, that the vast majority of market participants have forgotten what normalcy is.
Wow… the commodity bubble was more of a blister. I had suck high hopes of it rescuing our economy, too.
Yep, high commodity prices have made both an excellent smoke screen and a superior wealth transfer mechanism. Could there possible be a better “trap” than the combination we’re witnessing this summer?
from the article:
“I most certainly believe gold will eventually be an asset to own in coming years. However, at the onset of deflation, gold will be sold indiscriminately - like all assets - to pay down debt and repair balance sheets.”
does anyone have the timeline on when all these banks had to start buying back the auction-rate debt they sold? i was wondering if the dip in commodities markets had anything to do with the need of fast cash. if so, that is very telling of how much these crooks control the markets.
Gold stocks are more worthless paper ‘assets’.
“When debt and leverage are this excessive, cyclical inflation simply accelerates the deflationary outcome and makes the unwind more severe.”
Typical deflationista doublspeak whereby the current raging inflation is actually deflationary, if you only wait long enough. Godot must be a deflationist messiah.
Here I had been thinking the current deflation in gold, oil and house prices was a prelude to massive inflation five years down the road…
Inflation or deflation what we are witnessing is massive default on unsustainable debts. There is only one entity that can continue the inflation and that is the government…. like everyone else the government has unsustainable debts and would default if it lacked the power to print money.
If the original federal budget called for a $500B deficit and then tax revenues fall by 10% ($250B) and spending “unexpectedly” increases by $(250 to 500B bailouts/wars) then we are looking at a 1.25T deficit. Then our national debt will grow by 12%+ per year until spending cuts back or real tax revenue increases. Our national debt will double in the next 5 years and make the interest on the national debt > 50% of all tax revenue. What then? Hyperinflation or a return to VERY SMALL government operating on 10% or less of its current budget. I can only hope for the small government, but expect the hyperinflation.
Deflationary predictions only serve to prove that tax revenues will fall and that the date that hyperinflation starts is coming sooner. Hyperinflation == Government Default.
Deflationists also ignore what will happen when foreigners decide to dump the dollar (forcing monetization of treasuries by the FED) Why would they dump the dollar if they expected “deflation”??? Because they expect “default” on their US treasuries as a result of that “deflation”.
Dunno about houses but oil is still twice as expensive as a year ago, and gold was 665 a year ago. How much of your kind of deflation can we afford?
The problems with the deflationist scenario:
The failure to recognize government spending is the same as private spending. If people stop spending further the government will keep stimulus checks rolling.
The lack of understanding of TIC holdings and the purchasing power of $1T let alone $10T. There are 4 groups that act in concert with US dollar holdings of $10T.
Little comprehension of the magnitude of the US debts. To continue to borrow moneys from foreign or US wealth to service the debt will require greater and larger bond sales just to make interest payments. Interest rates on bonds will rise to compensate for the risk. (This is already happening).
Short term, it is possible to have a period of disinflation lasting from 6 mos to 2 years. Then the inflation jinni is free to reign.
The good gold buying years will be between now and 2012. Option ARM resets, which peak in 2011 but are still significant in 2012 will cause Ben to inflate like crazy. They will drop interest rates to 2%, perhaps 1% again.
Severe inflationary times are ahead because the Fed wants to keep the undeserving in their overpriced houses.
Has anyone else noticed how many towns are enforcing curfews lately? There are towns in Arkansas, Connecticut, South Carolina, West Virginia, New York and Philadelphia, all enforcing curfews within the last couple of days. It’s gettin’ crazy out there.
Curfew is an interesting word…
In old French: Cuevrefeu
Meaning to “cover fire”
Makes for a great time to pursue that sophicated urban condo lifestyle doesn’t it?
WHY are there curfews going on?
Is this the Executive Order #51 in early execution? Try small cities first, then go with EO 51 for all states/cities?
reading 1984 George Orwell all over again.
“Couples aren’t fighting over who gets to keep the house. They’re scrambling to get away from the burden of it.”
“Some spouses simply dump the problem — the home with a shrinking value — on their soon-to-be-ex. “They just leave,” says Chumney. “They move out and they’re gone.”"
Jingle mail to your spouse!
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/105565/Tough-Housing-Market-Complicates-Divorce
The only way you can get ‘OFF’ the mtg is if the Bank or lender allows you to. If the party who takes over the house has problems and doesn’t make (late) payments the other xspouse is screwed and his or her credit scores will suffer. hehehehehehe
How will the Bigfoot press conference in Palo Alto affect the Bay Area housing market?
The Russians certainly don’t seem scared of us. Must be because we are bogged down spreading freedom, one taliban at a time.
MOSCOW (AP) — A top Russian general said Friday that Poland’s agreement to accept a U.S. missile defense battery exposes ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported.
“Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent,” Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ie3N_5xk8Z20qcSJG0MilftDpsLwD92IMAU02
“Suppose Russia claimed that it wanted regime change in Georgia, invaded the country, slaughtered hundreds of thousands of its citizens, deployed WMD in civilian areas, raped and tortured prisoners, caught Saakashvili and hanged him? Morally, Bush, Rice and their entire odious and satanic regime would not be able to say a single word without the label “hypocrisy” choking them in their throats.”
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/14-08-2008/106098-hypocrisybush-0
There are shades of gray in the world. Some satanic regimes are grayer than others.
Hoz — I have been mulling over your suggestion to buy that inverse T-bond fund for months now. I am guessing long bond yields might bottom out around 2010, which would be the time to buy, as that is my guess about when the collective realization that housing prices did not bottom out by early 2009 will have its maximum deflationary psychological impact.
Does that seem to you like a reasonable guess?
Prof GS Bear,
If the deflationistas are correct, then bond yields could go down quite a bit. Since this is your typical credit insolvency crisis, the first step is flight to panic -aka buying US treasuries. This is over and done. Now the question is how high interest rates go over the next 15 yrs. Don’t pick bottoms or tops. Not healthy to ones wallet.
Frankly, at this time, I short US treasuries when the yield on the 10 yr is under 3.90% and cover when the yield is 4.12%. Just a weekly trade, no great shakes, until the market picks its move. As I had previously posted, I shorted the 2yrs when the yield was under 2%, that is the same as borrowing money for 2 yrs at less than 2%. I have no reason to cover.
I would not be surprised to see 10Yr treasuries yielding 8% in less than 2 yrs. MHO
Our electricity bill just came in and it’s just a little over a Dollar…
We used just under $650.00 in electricity this month.
And Southern California Edison has announced that rates will be going up 25 to 30%, starting next year…
(this message brought to you via the power of the Sun)
How much did you spend on your solar?
$250 per month via a HELOC loan.
How many watts are you generating? Or how many panels at what watt rating do you have?
30 panels putting out 5.4 kilowatts of power…
That means you are generating 1,300kWh (assuming 8 hours of peek sun hours/day) per month which is about how much I use, yet my power bill was only $100.
Felt like capitulation in silver today. Too bad I can’t find any to buy. Later doodz.
This post is for all of you that do not believe that the handlers(marketers, ad men and the financial institutions that hired them, are the parties most responsible for our crisis, please read this-
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/business/15sell.html
“That catchy slogan, dreamed up by the Fallon Worldwide advertising agency, was pitched in 1999 to executives at Citicorp who were looking for a way to lure Americans to financial products like home equity loans. But some in the room did not like it. They worried the phrase would encourage people to live exorbitantly, says Stephen A. Cone, a top Citi marketer at the time.
Still, “Live Richly” won out. The advertising campaign, which cost some $1 billion from 2001 to 2006, urged people to lighten up about money and helped persuade hundreds of thousands of Citi customers to take out home equity loans — that is, to borrow against their homes. As one of the ads proclaimed: “There’s got to be at least $25,000 hidden in your house. We can help you find it.”
While fraud occurred on the part of homeowners (some of it criminal), the cause of the housing menia, was a cultural change in attitude towards debt, that was the first cause of our current problems. Everyone else (mortgage brokers, RE agents, appraisers, etc) just jumped at what they saw as an opportunity to make money (by the way, the last time I checked, this is the American Way!).
So, for all of you out there who are so high, mighty and morally straight, you could have easily have been caught in this debt trap.
I still say, marketing/advertising is the single most dangerous tool of business and govt. mind control. They pay you a fortune to by soap/detergent, because of its branding at 300-1000% (my guessitmate), over production costs. Ad/Marketing costs are included on all products and services sold in the USA.
Cookie chain Mrs. Fields to file for bankruptcy
Restaurant and food companies have struggled this year as higher gasoline prices and rising ingredient costs have eroded sales and profits. S&A Restaurant Corp, owner of the Bennigan’s and Steak & Ale chains, filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in July, while Buffets Holdings Inc, the operator of Old Country Buffet and Ryan’s steakhouses, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January, saying customers had cut back on discretionary spending.
“There are several food retailers right now that are mall-based that are under pressure,” said Marti Kopacz, managing partner of the restructuring group at accounting firm Grant Thornton. “Food that is out of the home and food that is arguably discretionary is going to come under pressure when people don’t feel that they’ve got that discretionary income in their wallets.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080815/mrsfields_bankruptcy.html?.v=3
Mrs. Fields of Dreams, now.
Ya all, I wouldn’t be concerned about the crocks and the con artistist, if you are honest and fair.
The ones you should be deathly afraid of are the “dream weavers”. These persons and those that hire them have one goal and one only, to change your value system and your perception of reality. These are the markerters and advertisers that bombard you daily with statements about buying this service and product on your newspaper, TV, Radio, Phone, I-pod and internet websites. Who and why do you think they are paying huge sums of money to support these channels of communications?
Ben doesn’t work for free. Just look at the ads on this site?
I hate to say it, but the only solution is to become cynical or unplug!
Dream Weaver
~ Gary Wright
I’ve just closed my eyes again
Climbed aboard the dream weaver train
Driver take away my worries of today
And leave tomorrow behind
(chorus)
Ooh dream weaver
I believe you can get me through the night
Ooh dream weaver
I believe we can reach the morning light
Fly me high through the starry skies
Maybe to an astral plane
Cross the highways of fantasy
Help me to forget today’s pain
(chorus)
Though the dawn may be coming soon
There still may be some time
Fly me away to the bright side of the moon
And meet me on the other side
http://www.links2love.com/love_lyrics_408.htm
http://www.imeem.com/people/uKsst4/music/cAvvgsAi/gary_wright_dream_weaver/
/sorry/
“crooks” and “artists”
ps: If there is enough money in it for the BIG BOYZ, they will aim their marketing/advertising tools against you. They know your “hot button”, you all want a house (reasonable or dirt cheap, whatever). They know this, because this website is concerned about housing prices!
As someone said on this site, they will not be satisfied until they get every last penny in your pocket!
Stay cynical, hardnose and shut off the d@m sources of their control, your communication channels.
Time to take off my tin-foil hat.
Fla. revenue estimate down, governor eyes reserves
“Going forward, we will continue to meet the state’s essential needs, and we will stand by the same principles that guided this year’s budget: no increased property taxes; no additional borrowing; and no expanded gambling,” said Sansom, also the House’s speaker-designate. “Government cannot demand more from its residents and businesses than they are able to give.”
The continued housing slump, rising fuel costs and growing inflation are key factors that contributed to the latest estimate reduction.
“Everybody knows we had $4 gas in the last quarter and that inflation has been creeping up,” said Baker, coordinator of the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research. “So that’s eating through our sales tax estimates ’cause we’re saying people just aren’t going to be in a position to have a lot of disposable income.”
Sales taxes are the biggest single component of general revenue. The new estimate slashes them by nearly $1.2 billion to $17.9 billion.
The estimate also significantly reduces revenues from corporate income tax, documentary stamp taxes that are paid on real estate and lending transactions and insurance premium taxes.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080815/fl_revenue_estimate.html?.v=1
It feels like a Bair Market, now that trading is done for the week…
Which bank/s are going down this weekend, Sheila?
Level 3 assets, the “difficult to trade/value/sell junk” have created the following environment per Marc Faber (hat tip Credit Writedowns):
A lot of banks are already bankrupt. A lot of monoline insurance companies are bankrupt and financial institutions hide their rotten assets in level three asset categories where you don’t really need to value them….”
Aug 15, 2008
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2008/08/level-three-asset-analysis.html
“…Exchange-traded funds linked to baskets of financial shares raised $8.67 billion during the first seven months of the year, the most of 94 investment categories tracked by research and investment firm Birinyi Associates Inc…
Financial shares in the S&P 500 are this year’s worst performers just as they were in 2007. …”
It is astounding the amount of moneys going into financial institutions that will not show a profit for years if ever.
Dont be astounded Hoz. If the asians and turbans are running the dollar, and they have figured out that decoupling is a myth at this juncture….they need the dollar rally to get the US legs back under her, to control their own peoples.
Thats a battle an individual cant win. Their peoples in the emerging do not possess the solid understandings, they are not highly educated, they are not markets savvy……the emerging will panic if the solution to this thing does not unfold RIGHT HERE, in modern terms of golabalization.
I enjoy the tinfoil, but I also like to try and deep think the solution, call it whatever you want….pie in the sky, not possible, utterly ridiculous… but cmon. This is all solvable.
for those frugla ones out there in the neither world, there are quality food products/almost any product at cheaper prices.
mfg. plants (I am fimilar with food) that mfg. food items under “branded names” also provide the same quality of food as “no name” store branded items. Because food(canned, dry packaged and frozen food items) is relatively cheap per unit purchased, it is easy to test. If the food item tests the same, why buy “branded” items at greater costs?
Earlier this decade, Marlboro Cigs were declining. A new product, “Basic” came out that was(if I recall correctly) 40% cheaper. This was great, because they tasted like Marlboros. Jee, I do not know that they were also produced by P. Morris, however, the price differential for Basics increased upward to the price of Marlboro’s. Whether, PM produced both cigs, I do not know, however, a lot of Marlboro sales went to basic at a lower cost.
The point that I am trying to make is that the public has been convinenced that certain products commands a higher cost, because of advertising/marketing. The extra cost to the product you buy is mostly contributed to marketing/advertising costs and increased profits, IMHO.
One other point, in the late 70’s, a co-worker who owned a Porsche, told me that the cost of Porche touch-up paint was 300% higher than VW touch-up paint for the same color (black). They decided to purchase the VW paint (VW owned Porche, or the other way around at the time).
The point that I am attempting to make, is do not fall for the marketing/advertising speel. Now, if the issue is doctor’s or lawyer’s services, you are on your own!
PS: Why do you thing clothing and women’s accessories has a lot of counterfitting taking place?
A manufacture can sell you a product (varying quality) with a phony label (branding) at some level of quality at a significantly lower price, thereby providing them with a good profit and providing you with a significant savings.
The locomotive pulled into the station a final time for my childhood tv pal, Engineer Bill. Red Light!
R.I.P.
My sister’s were on engineer bill.
I believe it was it Engineer Bill who caught hell for saying into what he thought was a dead microphone after one of his shows the words “That ought to hold the little bastards”.
Hundreds of parents were not amused.
Lip,
and anyone else that is interested:
Insurance cos collect premium and pay out claims. Where do you you think that they park those premiums? If I recall, in credit instruments. Property claims are relative easy to close, due to appraisals(generally cost of replacement using current labor and material costs locally). Liability claims are a whole different matter(depends on the laws, judge and the jury and prevailing public opinion about the defendant (corp)being sued,)
So, has anyone noticed the losses reported by AIG (as I understand it the largest ins. co. in the world)?
These insurance cos are restricted to credit instruments, perferibly US Treasuries, but I suspect other AAA credit instruments(we do want them to pay their claims.)
The point I am trying to make (for J6P) is that they sell various retirement insurance products. Will they be able to pay after J6P has paid premiums over so many years?
No one, no matter how secure, may get out of this crisis untouched!
losty, I dont see panic……I see a rocky bit of turbulence.
What does it take to get the worlds attention? This is not about insurance models for debt default structures. This is all about populace control. The fever pitch you are making makes you sound a little bit over the top. The asians and turbans….you know, the ones with all the real money are on it.
The only people who are interested in gunning down their own peoples, are the Russians (throw in the Islamic radicals, we all know how the siege of Malta turned out)….they still feel left out. Dont matter how many Opels are sold. Watch the Europeans, if they start to panic, and a bunch of old farts lining up at Northern Rock and Indymac aint gonna cut it…If the Northern Baltics thing blows up, and people take to the streets while Russian tanks roll, I would get liquid. Like deep liquid///swimming in Ale type liquid….
Americans are pissed at themselves, why? What do the peoples want, and what do the peoples need?
Our host, Mr Ben Jones is rolling up the sleeves and talking auction…why?