August 26, 2008

It’s Turned Into Investor Hell In Florida

The News Journal reports from Florida. “Bob Staake inherited a modest Port Orange home from his parents in April 2007, but he lives in Michigan. So, he put it on the market — 399 days ago. After steadily dropping the price from $208,000 to $156,000, it finally sold last month. ‘We knew a home across the street sold for $250,000 a few years ago. So we thought ‘drop it another 20 percent and it should sell,’ he said. I must have come down six or seven times to do things regarding the house. It was not fun. It was a risk us being here and the home there.’”

‘After a year on the market, Staake changed real estate agents. ‘He knew the market better and showed me the real value of the home,’ Saake said. ‘It wasn’t like I was looking at a loss on the home, it’s paid for. But, it was a relief to finally sell it.’”

From Florida Today. “Sales of existing homes in Brevard County increased 4 percent in July. The rise wasn’t large — it represented just five more homes sold than in June — and it was coupled with a decline in median home price.”

“Brenda Muh, owner of Space Coast Realty Corp. in Palm Bay, said foreclosure sales are changing the dynamics of the Brevard market. Purchasing a foreclosed home is a great deal for buyers. For the seller?”

“‘It’s not so good for the seller,’ Muh said. ‘I tell them if you can hold on for a year or two it will be better.’”

The Palm Beach Post. “Palm Beach County home prices plunged to a four-year low in July, raising new questions about just how far property values can fall. The median price of an existing single-family home fell to $291,300 in July, the Florida Association of Realtors said Monday. That’s down 22 percent from July 2007 and off 13 percent from June 2008.”

“Since late 2005, home prices have dropped 30 percent. ‘It’s a massive dip over the past couple years, there’s no two ways about it,’ said John Mike, president of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.”

“For months, Realtors have promised that the bottom is in sight and that their phones are beginning to ring with calls from eager buyers. But more skeptical observers say prices have further to fall before they’re affordable to middle-income buyers.”

“‘We’ve been saying prices were going to go back to 2003 levels,’ said Jack McCabe, a housing analyst based in Deerfield Beach. ‘Now, I’m starting to think it may be even worse than that. We’ve probably seen only 30 percent of the foreclosures we’re going to see over the next few years.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “Sales of existing homes increased in Broward County last month, but don’t call the moving company just yet. Responding to deep price cuts, buyers scooped up 581 houses in July, up 4 percent from 559 a year ago, the Florida Association of Realtors said Monday. The median price of $303,600 decreased 19 percent from $373,700 a year ago.”

“During the first half of this year, 23 percent of Broward sellers unloaded their homes at a loss, up from 2 percent in 2006, according to sales data reviewedby the Sun Sentinel. The analysis did not include foreclosure sales.”

“Jeff Levine, a South Florida agent, agrees that it’s a good time to look for homes, as long as potential buyers aren’t skittish about the nation’s economy or Florida’s worsening job market. ‘A lot of what’s selling is half the price of what it was at the peak,’ Levine said. ‘But if you’re buying, you’ve got to be certain of your job or have a lot of money in the bank.’”

The Naples News. “Existing single-family home sales - or resales - grew by 80 percent from a year ago, in the Fort Myers/Cape Coral market. Meanwhile, the median price for a single-family home in Fort Myers-Cape Coral dropped 37 percent to $154,900, from $246,100 a year ago.”

“Prices continue to get more affordable in the Naples area too. The median sales price for all homes fell 29 percent to $275,000, from $385,000 a year ago, according to NABOR.”

The News Press. “Lee County home sales increased while prices fell, according to statistics. The median price of an existing home sold with the help of a Realtor in July was $154,900, down 10 percent from $172,400 in June. The median price was down 37 percent from a year ago, when it was $246,100.”

The Herald Tribune. “Home prices in Sarasota-Bradenton pushed back into March 2004 territory last month. The July median sales price was $230,100, down $5,000 from the previous post-boom low set in June and 17 percent lower than this time last year.”

“Charlotte County-North Port, meanwhile, saw a July median of $141,800, 21 percent lower than a year ago. The July price matched levels last seen in November 2003.”

“The median is being driven down by banks dumping unwanted foreclosure properties at reduced prices, said Stacy Haas, a Realtor who works in Lakewood Ranch.”

“Dave Jarvis, owner of Realty Concepts in Port Charlotte, said that when he does find a buyer, declining sale prices make it difficult to get an appraisal that will satisfy a lender, often resulting in a deal gone bust.”

“‘Everyone is upside down in their homes and the appraisals come in too low,’ Jarvis said. ‘The values just aren’t there. It is going to turn around. It is just a question of when.’”

“As prices continue to drop, some owners who do not have to sell right now are looking at other options, said Jack Geldi, part of The Geldi Team at Ilene Mirman Realty in Sarasota.”

“‘Those that aren’t in trouble and don’t absolutely have to sell are looking to where they’d consider a lease option, or a long-term lease,’ said Geldi, who is active in Manatee and Sarasota counties. ‘We have a number of properties now where the owners have said, ‘I can’t afford to drop my price any further, but if you can find a good tenant, that’s what I’m going to do until things improve.’”

The Tampa Tribune. “Here - finally - may be some good news for those awaiting evidence of a housing turnaround. But the gleam of hope is coming at the expense of homeowners who can’t afford to hang on to their houses. Sales of existing homes bounced a surprising 5 percent in the Tampa Bay area in July compared with the same month a year ago.”

“The median sales price, a point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less, fell 18 percent to $176,500. It was $215,600 in July 2007. Compare that to $239,600 in June 2006, when prices peaked locally.”

“The uptick is a result of prices falling deep enough to draw bargain hunters, said Chris Lafakis, who covers the state for Moody’s. Distressed properties, Lafakis said, make up 40 percent of all sales nationally. ‘I expect that number to be much higher in Florida.’”

The St Petersburg Times. “Maria Juhasz, 46, is selling her garden, plant by plant, before the bank forecloses on her home. She bought the 756-square-foot home in 2006 for $153,000. A bank appraiser values it at $113,000.”

“The appraisal that she says puts no value on the thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours she has put into landscaping. The appraisal that counts only bricks, mortar and comparable sales.”

“‘Even if I’m selling the plants at 10 or 20 percent of what they cost, I’m getting something back,’ she says. ‘I’ve cried over this, but never out here.’”

“This spring, Wayne Croushorn and Stephen King sold modest-sized investment houses less than 2 miles apart in central St. Petersburg. Despite the proximity, though, you might as well be comparing housing markets in Alaska and Alabama.”

“Croushorn bought a 1,300-square-foot bungalow on 14th Street N in the Euclid-St. Paul neighborhood for $131,000 in 2004. He managed to sell it for $171,500 this April, a gain of 30 percent.”

“King wasn’t so lucky. He snatched up a 900-square-foot concrete block house in June 2007 for the recorded price of $89,900 in southern St. Petersburg’s Bartlett Park area. This spring he let it go for $77,000, a 14 percent price decline in less than a year.”

“‘It was a house we probably shouldn’t have bought,’ King said in hindsight.”

“Low- to moderate-income places like Bartlett Park and Highland Oaks in St. Petersburg and southeast Clearwater recorded home price declines of about 40 percent from the peak.”

“But higher-than-average price declines are also the scourge of upper-income enclaves like Venetian Isles and Snell Isle, where the median home price has dropped from about $1-million to less than $600,000 this year.”

“A spurt of foreclosures can make it seem that prices have slid off the face of the earth. Take Snell Isle, one of St. Petersburg’s oldest and most exclusive enclaves. At the sales peak in late 2004, 45 homes sold during a six-month period. But in the first half of 2008, only eight homes sold, at least a quarter of them foreclosures. Prices suffered accordingly.”

“Many of the worst-hit neighborhoods are in southern St. Petersburg. The low cost of entry - old, small block and wood frame houses could be had for less than $50,000 - brought out the wolves. ‘Wherever speculators were in big time, things are worse,’ said Palm Harbor real estate broker Nikki Ubaldini. ‘You had shacks that were bought and sold in some of these neighborhoods.’”

“Jerry Sigler has seen the meltdown as a Realtor who specializes in selling foreclosure properties seized by the bank. One of his latest cases is a 600-square-foot house built in 1925 in southern St. Petersburg’s 13th Street Heights. It carries a $110,000 mortgage.”

“Sigler gave the beat-up house a once-over and broke the bad news to the bank: It’s worth $35,000. That’s all that the market, absent rampant speculation, can support. ‘It looks like fraud. That house wasn’t worth $110K to begin with,’ Sigler said.”

“Stephen King, an investor who has bought and sold 300 to 400 homes in the past decade, says sales won’t pick up without 20 to 30 percent price declines.”

“‘The rise was totally artificial in many of these neighborhoods,’ King said. ‘The subsequent crash will be even more painful.’”

“In southwest Pasco County’s Beacon Square community, the housing decline is reflected in the roster of recent home sellers dumping properties for as little as $50,000: NovaStar Mortgage, Wachovia Bank, Bank of New York.”

“Since the housing boom ended in 2006, home prices have plunged 45 percent in Beacon Square. In an analysis of 44,000 homes sales in 35 communities since 2005, not one area in Pasco escaped falling prices. From the peak in the first half of 2006 to the first half of 2008, prices fell off 34 percent across the board. Home sales were down 74 percent from the height of the boom.”

“Take Holiday. Energized by furious flipping, the median home sales price peaked at $130,000 in early 2006. By the first half of this year, the median price had hunkered down at $75,000. That’s a drop of 42 percent, one of the county’s worst.”

“‘It became investor heaven. Now it’s turned into investor hell,’ said Greg Armstrong, president of the West Pasco Board of Realtors. ‘People didn’t want to be left out, but they got burned instead.’”

“In Beacon Square, Oldsmar investors Michael and Evelyn Otto recently snagged a 1,152-square-foot, 40-year-old house for $59,000 from Wachovia Bank. This in a community where a typical house sold for $133,400 just two years ago.”

“Michael Otto blames banks for the state of affairs. They should either have held the distressed properties, he said, or else helped owners avoid foreclosure. Huge property insurance premium hikes along the hurricane-prone coast didn’t help the market either.’

“‘They’re selling the houses for $50,000, $60,000 or $70,000,’ Otto said. ‘We think they will go up in value. You just have to wait.’”




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172 Comments »

Comment by dumbo
2008-08-26 08:09:32

>> “‘It’s not so good for the seller,’ Muh said. ‘I tell them if you can hold on for a year or two it will be better.’”

…for the buyer.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-08-26 08:56:25

Keep feeding the alligators, kids, keep feeding them.

Hope and pray?!?

I feel an attack of ennui coming on, and it’s only midday so far. :-D

Comment by HARM
2008-08-26 10:52:26

After reading that story, I’m feeling an attack of schadenfreude coming on. ;-)

 
 
Comment by Tim
2008-08-26 11:18:24

Note she admits that’s just what she “tells” them, not what she believes. Just another piece of Realtor garbage.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 08:15:53

“In Beacon Square, Oldsmar investors Michael and Evelyn Otto recently snagged a 1,152-square-foot, 40-year-old house for $59,000 from Wachovia Bank. This in a community where a typical house sold for $133,400 just two years ago.”

And this was what houses were selling for in the Holiday/Port Richey/New Port Richey area of West Pasco when I moved to the Tampa Bay area in 2000. Some were even less, $45,000. But it’s a helluva place to live, with flooding, threat of hurricanes, sinkholes, etc. West Pasco is major toast, maybe even more than North Port.

It’s interesting, though, that this Florida thread features two areas of Tampa Bay where prices have come down with a thud. South St. Peter and West Pasco. Last to rise, first to fall from my own observations. They’re also areas where most people probably wouldn’t want to live. South St. Pete because of crime and West Pasco because you can’t get anywhere from there. When prices start falling in earnest in South Hillsborough, then I’m buying. Maybe.

Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-08-26 09:20:47

Does using the word/phrase “snagged” and “snapped up” in reference to purchasing a house bother anyone else but me?

What’s wrong with using the term “bought”?

Nobody says “I snapped up some tomatos at the Farmers Market”
(at least not around here)

Although I could see someone using the phrase “I snagged a hooker in Vegas….”

Comment by jetson_boy
2008-08-26 09:40:01

Ya, it bothers me too. It makes it sound like homes are potato chips. The other reason is because it sounds like overly-optimistic Realtor-speak: “The homes were Snapped up!” etc. It is supposed to indicate that buyers are flooding in like mad, buying in a sort of feeding frenzy like a school of fish. The message of course is supposed to make those of us “losers” sitting on the fence get worried and act because if we don’t… why all the homes might get bought! oh no!

I love how realtors and the industry make attempts at goading people into buying by setting up these little make-believe sheeple scenarios.

Comment by kim
2008-08-26 10:13:08

it bothers me too do they not realize oh ya they just dont care that these are peoples homes, that all of a sudden they were burdened with excruciating insurance prices and now cant afford it. i am doing the best i can to hold on to my home for a few more years but when i moved here my mortgage including ins was $683 a month now it is $1300 a month. people that live pay check to pay check and have children cant afford to come up with $700 extra dollars a month to pay there mortgage. its rediculous. me and my husband are only 26 we bought our house when we were 21 and are so proud of our selves. but it has been a struggle holding onto it, its our home and its not fair were being robbed with the market and people swarming to take your home cause you cant afford it anymore. its sad and i hope it gets better for everyone. good luck everyone

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Comment by HARM
2008-08-26 11:08:34

Kim,

If your monthly mortgage tab went from $685/mo. to $1300/mo., you probably have an option-ARM. If you bought in 2003 (based on your age when you purchased), you may still have a teensy amount of equity left, or at least might break even on a sale. As you are living paycheck to paycheck while trying to raise children, it’s probably in your family’s best interests to sell and rent. You will probably find you can rent a *better* place than the one you currently “own” (or more accurately, the place that owns you) for less money.

Don’t let so-called “pride of ownership” (realtwhore marketing propaganda) blind you to your predicament and keep your family financially chained to a sinking anchor. If you continue to struggle and wait, you may soon find that your only option is to walk away and let the lender foreclose. If you get out now on your own terms, you can at least keep your credit rating intact, avoid a lot of heartache and stress, and prepare for the eventual housing market bottom.

Good luck to you.

 
Comment by vile
2008-08-26 12:15:42

Don’t be too proud of yourself, your grammar stinks.

 
Comment by DebtInNation
2008-08-26 12:52:33

Kim,
If you are still reading this, seriously, please take HARM’s advice. A lot of veterans on this blog have been talking about this crash for almost 4 years, and believe me, they know what they are talking about. Some, including myself, can be cruel with their comments sometimes, but for the most part, the advice on this blog is good.

Unfortunately, life isn’t fair, and nobody is “robbing” you of your home. Although home ownership can be a good thing, nobody has a “right” to own a home. And remember, it’s not “your” home because the bank is the one you are making the payments to. Renting may be a better option for you, before your house falls in value another 20%. Get some advice from a wise trustworthy friend.

 
 
Comment by arizonadude
2008-08-26 10:24:30

Do any of you know much about FHA loans? Are they just for first time homebuyers?Someone told me that but don’t think it is true.I think they give loans to anyone w/ 97 ltv.I think the property has to meet minimum proerty requirements though.

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Comment by oxide
2008-08-26 12:40:21

Your screen name is apt. No need to pile on.

 
Comment by oxide
2008-08-26 12:58:53

Oh gosh, sorry, I was replying to “vile” ’s comment.

 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-08-26 16:45:11

My favorite sales expression is when they say it’s a “blow out”. I always imagine the explosive response of eating too many beans. (OT: I was traveling on the east coast this past week, noticed dozens of what are likely 2nd homes for sale in rural New York.)

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Comment by bluprint
2008-08-26 10:47:53

I snagged a catfish the other day. Elusive buggers. Like hookers in Vegas.

Wait, what?

Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-08-26 11:50:26

Actually, it would be okay for a hooker to say, “I snapped up a John when I was in Vegas”

“snapped up” being a location in this instance……

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Comment by bluprint
2008-08-26 11:55:56

lol

 
 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2008-08-26 11:30:08

I’ll bet there’s someone out there whose house was “snapped up” partially because of the HELOC he took out to pay for the hooker he “snagged” in Vegas!

 
Comment by CharlesM
2008-08-26 12:25:05

Reading the phrase “snapped up” (unless accompanied by irony) makes me want to “snap” and start “up” on a good ol’ fashioned killin’ spree. First to go - those who sell real estate, followed closely by those who write about real estate and use expressions like “snapped up” as if they own the trademark and receive a royalty payment every time “snapped up” hits print.

Comment by Cassandra
2008-08-26 16:06:17

You should be able to find sponsors here. Ammunition can get expensive. Let me know how I can help.

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Comment by Moman
2008-08-26 09:57:34

Yes, I’ve noticed that prices are right back to where I expect them to be in some areas.

“The median sales price, a point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less, fell 18 percent to $176,500. It was $215,600 in July 2007. Compare that to $239,600 in June 2006, when prices peaked locally.”

When this number is $139,000, the bust will be over.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 10:21:04

“When this number is $139,000, the bust will be over.”

You assume there will be a bank still to lend the $139K…it’s going to get worse than even most of us on this board thought.

Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2008-08-26 10:59:09

The remaining banks should have the money.
they’ve already turned over all their junk loans to the Federal Reserve. Paulsen will give about $500 Billion to FHA /FMNA to bail out their losses and whoever ends up in the White House will work furiously with CONgress to pump MORE and MORE and MORE money into the system.

Remember our “ownership President” ’s claims to having his administration put more people into their own homes than ever in the history of our Nation. A great Ponzi scheme if there ever was one.

The next “responsibility president” will lend a helping hand to whatever fraud Wallstreet conjurs up. Bank on it.

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Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 11:03:03

it’s going to get worse than even most of us on this board thought.

I agree 100% with what you mentioned. I see the foreclosures, banking numbers, etc. on a daily basis and it is much worse than what is being mentioned to the public. Even when the bottom hits late in 2009, property values will still continue to fall.

The credibility of the realtor associations and the NAR is gone and may never recover. That is the price they will pay for lying to the consumer!

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Comment by packman
2008-08-26 10:50:47

“When this number is $139,000, the bust will be over.”

I wouldn’t be so sure. Median in Tampa was about $85k in the late 90’s. It may well get close to that before this think is through. Sure if you adjust for inflation the current “proper” price would be around $139 - but that’s assuming that prices don’t overshoot on the downside, which I think they will.

Remember - Tampa is basically a hell hole, with a few small pockets of nice areas right on the water. Those few small pockets affect the average price a fair amount, but not the median price, since the volume of homes in those pockets is low compared with the bulk of Tampa.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 10:40:20

Palmetto:

Look at the new site for researching realestate in the Tampa bay area on the St. Petersburg times blog site, (Un) realestate. It shows only properties that sold, including foreclosures, for sale by owner and actual closed sales and not what the MLS or the realtors groups put out to the public.

The site is an excellent way to determine the true value of property. The realtors put out properties under contract, but call them sales even though they have not closed and that data is tainted!

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-08-26 08:19:54


“‘They’re selling the houses for $50,000, $60,000 or $70,000,’ Otto said. ‘We think they will go up in value. You just have to wait.’”

But it is lot sweeter if “you just wait” to buy at $20,000 and then wait for it to go up. “It is a good time to buy” arguments have been made almost everyday for the past several years.

How about: It is a good time to wait?

Jas

Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-08-26 08:21:46

I think it’s a great time to wait!

Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 08:39:19

We have figured out the limbo stick price for a house in the country, and it appears that no house dare creep under the One Dollar* line.

* Detroit & Cleveland

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-08-26 08:58:05

But they have negative worth.

You have to pay the back property taxes plus feed the taxes each year. I really doubt the rents are covering even that much.

Plus, they are in really shady areas (to put it mildly.)

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 09:10:25

You don’t get much house for a buck, anymore…

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 11:22:30

“You don’t get much house for a buck, anymore…”

I hate it. You used to get the house WITH all of it’s copper and siding intact.

 
Comment by DebtInNation
2008-08-26 12:57:12

“Brother, could you spare a dollar for a house?”

 
 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-08-26 09:23:15

I think it’s a great time to eat good food, drink good booze (Jack), travel to a foreign country, hang out with my wife, enjoy the autumn, be debt free and have savings in the bank.

Great time to buy real estate????? Bwahahaha.

Comment by hd74man
2008-08-26 09:51:58

RE: enjoy the autumn

10 best weeks of the year goin’ on right now here in the Northeast.

3rd week in August until Halloween.

It doesn’t get any better.

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Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 10:03:36

You are so right, Big H. New England is truly awesome in the early fall. I also recommend late spring.

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-08-26 16:52:42

Just returned from an east coast road trip. I was totally in awe of back country New Jersey, Vermont, Pennsylvania and New York. This west coast girl has seen too many gritty depictions of the east coast. 40 miles out of NYC and it’s absolutely bee-u-t-ful. So, why do they always pick on New Jersey? Beyond the big cities it’s all green and gorgeous.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-08-26 09:57:36

Beat me to it, MYCityboy. That’s ‘ZACTLY what I was gonna say, except for the part about hanging out with your wife. I don’t know her.
Also, I was going to add ‘and a good time to watch all the knife catchers with their fingers sprinkling down like icky confetti all over the floor’.

But yeah, time to buy real-estate? BWHAHAHAHA.

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Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 11:07:59

a good time to watch all the knife catchers with their fingers sprinkling down like icky confetti all over the floor’.

Excellent! More than 25% of these consumers who bought in 2007 are now in foreclosure.

It’s a great time to buy and then go into foreclosure as your property declines in value. Listen to the NAR and you to can go into foreclosure!

 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-08-26 11:37:16

I’m getting the urge to knifecatch again. Really cool large house, 6.375% mortgage equal to equivalent rent, 2x my yearly salary, gentrified low crime area, centrally located, distressed seller, etc. It meets all my criteria, even if it is likely to still drop in value over the next few years.

I’m starting to get the warm fuzzies again :D Stay tuned!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Jim A.
2008-08-26 08:20:53

We have:
“‘It’s not so good for the seller,’ Muh said. ‘I tell them if you can hold on for a year or two it will be better.’”

AND we have:
“‘Those that aren’t in trouble and don’t absolutely have to sell are looking to where they’d consider a lease option, or a long-term lease,’ said Geldi, who is active in Manatee and Sarasota counties.

The second means that the first won’t come to pass. Or at least not if you define better as prices will stabalize and return to bubble levels. IMHO in massivly overbuild florida it will be SEVERAL DECADES before REAL prices return to bubble levels. I won’t even TRY to predict nominal prices, since those are related to how much fed and treasury attempts to “juice” the economy feed inflation.

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-08-26 09:01:13

Florida prices haven’t returned in real terms to the the highs of 1925 inspite of the second bubble!

In nominal terms, it took till about 1986 (or so) before they hit those numbers.

I unhumbly suggest that most of the posters (myself included) will be safely dead before the numbers pan out (and I’m a relative young’un on this blog.)

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2008-08-26 08:27:23

“Jeff Levine, a South Florida agent, agrees that it’s a good time to look for homes, as long as potential buyers aren’t skittish about the nation’s economy or Florida’s worsening job market.”

==========================

Translation: it’s a “good time to look for homes” for potential buyers who are deaf, dumb and blind. You’d have to be living in a cave not to be skittish here, because the reality is all around us.

Also, got to love the bits on speculators getting burned in south St. Petersburg. That’s probably the most dangerous, crime-ridden neighborhood in the entire Tampa Bay area, and I’d be willing to bet that a fair number of those buying during the bubble simply listened to a few Jimmy Buffet tunes and never even visited to see what the area really looked like.

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 08:36:31

Gotta agree with you on South St. Pete, snake. For our Cali friends, I’m guessing this would be the equivalent of investing in Compton.

There are some lovely areas of St. Pete and some stately old homes and some great funky cottages and Key West style stuff in Gulfport and St. Pete Beach. That’s where the Buffet tunes come in. But South St. Pete? Yuck.

Comment by Les Pendens
2008-08-26 09:35:36

..

Ain’t no Jimmy Buffet in South-Central St. Pete.

More like Lil’ Wayne and fiftycent.

I am white and dare not venture into some of those areas of St. Pete north of Central Ave in broad daylight….I have several black friends that won’t go there at anytime either.

Extremely dangerous area. Blacks there are highly racist and motivated towards violence against whites and hispanics. They set the whole area to the torch and made national news when they rioted in 1997/98….see “http://www.uhurumovement.org/” for more info…..thats where these racists make their national headquarters.

The comparisons of Central St. Pete and Compton, CA are dead-on accurate.

..

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 09:53:46

Les, the uhuru guys caused a minor disruption at O’Bama’s rally in St. Pete not too long ago. St. Pete truly is scary and if there’s ever a Katrina event in that area (not outside the realm of possibility) there will be hell to pay. It’ll make Nawleans look like a tea party.

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Comment by Robert In Florida
2008-08-26 11:19:01

Well not much that I could add about South St. Pete or this stupid statement : “Jeff Levine, a South Florida agent, agrees that it’s a good time to look for homes, as long as potential buyers aren’t skittish about the nation’s economy or Florida’s worsening job market. ‘ that you all did not beat me to. The speculators buying in South St. Pete should be called FOOLS! hell even the people who live down there don’t really want to live there. Yea you can buy a cheap home (kinda sorta) but NO way would I want to live there. If you want to be close to your Crack supply it might be worth considering. However every other crack head in the neighborhood will steal you blind. As for the Economy of FL….if tourism takes a hit, and I suspect it will, it’s gonna be a free for all.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 08:30:54

“Dave Jarvis, owner of Realty Concepts in Port Charlotte”

“Jack Geldi, part of The Geldi Team ”

I just love realtor monikers, don’t you? The Geldi Team. Supposed to make you feel all warm and fuzzy, like you’ve got the Bucs behind you (OK, the Giants, or whatever) ready to throw that old touchdown pass. More like a Hail Mary pass.

And don’t get me started on ANY company with “Concepts” in its name. Realty Concepts. What does that even mean? That does it. I’m starting my own company “Palmetto Concepts”. Or better yet, “Cracker Concepts”, for those of us who still cling to the Florida lifestyle of yore.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-08-26 08:53:20

Makes me think of the Gelding Team. And, guys, that’s just gotta hurt.

Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-08-26 09:43:41

Ah, nuts! Now that’s just too funny.

 
 
Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 10:05:33

“”AND”" another thing about Realtors….
WHY do they ALL, always have to show their picture…
Do they really think that people, want to do business with people that look that ugly????

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-08-26 11:04:00

Believe it or not, the picture is meant to built trust. Or at least that’s how it was explained to me.

Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 16:57:30

Well !!! I guess the “” REALTY-OR”" question is….Would you feel better getting screwed by an ugly REALTOR or a pretty/hansome one????….

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Comment by DebtInNation
2008-08-26 13:03:05

Why don’t we trademark REALITOR?
Someone from the HBB who follows REALTORs™ and their clients around and gives them a dose of reality.

 
 
Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-08-26 08:33:43

Ladies and gentlemen, may I present….the bottom:

Consumer outlook up, worst may be over for housing

NEW YORK (AP) — Americans felt better about the economy in August, as a widely watched barometer of sentiment posted the biggest boost in two years amid falling gas prices. Meanwhile, two reports suggested that the worst may be over for the slumping housing market.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Economy.html

Comment by dumbo
2008-08-26 09:40:10

Yey! I’ve got a ton of bills to pay, so I’m gonna go to the bank and ask for a loan.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-08-26 10:22:17

“Americans felt better about the economy in August…”

Keep repeating something long enough and it becomes the truth?

Nah, the truth is that no matter what some blinkin’ survey says the reality is that so many cannot even comprehend that a prolonged downturn is even possible. Their attention spans are short and they have long tired of this story.

They’re already waiting for the free money to start falling from the sky again. When it doesn’t - then we’ll see where the consumer’s confidence lies.

Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-08-26 11:55:47

“Americans felt better……….”

Yeah, right………as in “We’re only $200,000 bucks underwater; could be worse, it could have been $250,000″

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 08:37:39

“Take Holiday.”

No thanks, buddy. YOU take Holiday. Please.

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 08:42:09

‘A lot of what’s selling is half the price of what it was at the peak,’ Levine said. ‘But if you’re buying, you’ve got to be certain of your job or have a lot of money in the bank.’”

Somebody forgot to tell that to all the FBs during the bubble. Anyway, very few can be certain of their job in Florida, unless it is in health care and even then…

And who has lots of money in the bank these days, really? Not many. So the message is clear. Now is not the time to buy.

Comment by DinOR
2008-08-26 09:29:43

palmetto,

Right on. Add that to the list of things I never understood about the bubble? Here we have an employment situation that’s as tentative as ever yet we have people falling all over themselves to bid on something that involves a 30 Year pay off scheme?!

Crazier still was by the peak they were talking about 40 & 50 yr. mortgages? The frustrating part is that ever since the early/mid 90’s as a country, we should have been working the OTHER way!

Had we gone to a “smaller is better” model we’d have aging members of the workforce in 900 to 1,200 sq. ft. homes and 15 year mortgages that would be largely or completely paid off by now! The change in the tax code back in ‘97 should have cemented that by allowing people to downsize much earlier than age 55. There’s no doubt in my mind we’d be in a much better place both financially as well as from a consumption standpoint.

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 09:58:02

“Had we gone to a “smaller is better” model we’d have aging members of the workforce in 900 to 1,200 sq. ft. homes and 15 year mortgages that would be largely or completely paid off by now!”

Big D, that used to be the model in Florida, as evidenced by all the little concrete block shacks all over the state, most built between 1950 and mid-1980s. It was a model that worked. Florida was always a low-wage state, but that was offset by low cost of living. And it was under this model that Florida grew and prospered, after a fashion.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 10:19:58

And Palmetto, this is what will happen again so long as insurance continues to be available and tax appraisers get real on valuations. If not…well…

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Comment by fran chise
2008-08-26 12:26:32

Only if all the Tuscan-whatever developments are looted for materials, just like the Coliseum in Rome.

 
 
 
Comment by Moman
2008-08-26 10:11:43

We are now going to the smaller is better model, well after the time it should have happened, and right at the time to see the mega-housing bust that none of us can dream of today. What happens in 2015-2020 when all the boomers retire in mass and want to downsize from McMansions, into smaller houses and condos that are easy to maintain. Tomorrow’s buyers will not want this housing stock. Small is back in style, and living close counts.

We’ve already seen this bust. Let’s start talking about the next one.

Comment by DinOR
2008-08-26 11:08:58

Right, and and “small” doesn’t necessarily have to equate to “squalor”. In fact I would think if anything it would allow builders to add some extras and still be very affordable.

Any time I see a new fangled smaller, cottage type design, pre-fab or otherwise, I’m always interested to learn more. I have a client that bought her home in Vegas in ‘06 and thought she was getting a steal, as they were already starting their correction. Well it doesn’t look like such a ’steal’ now, does it!?

At least if it had been more reasonable the AC bills wouldn’t be ‘crimping’ her lifestyle? And that’s the ‘hedge’ right there! I have no idea what utility bills will look like in 10 or 15 years but this much I CAN tell ya’! The smaller the place the more likely I’ll have it fully paid off and the better I’ll be able to weather higher energy and maint. expenses. Isn’t that just common sense?

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Comment by oxide
2008-08-26 13:15:32

Some fun stuff to look up on Le Google:

Any log home company — they don’t all look like McMountainMansions. They still design cabins-in-the-woods.

Sears Catalog bungalows — darn near perfect, and experiencing a resurgance.

“Katrina Cottage” — designed as a dignified substitute for a Katrina trailer, but would be a great vacation home.

“Tumbleweed” houses — ultra tiny homes (150-500 sq ft) built to be delivered on a tractor trailer, little assembly required.

“Pocket neighborhood” (or “rosschapin.com”) — tiny developments of 6-8 cottages (600-800 sq ft). Very charming.

 
Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 17:06:46

A guy I know of , has got a 7000 sq ft log cabin [McMansion] for sale over in Waynesville, NC., for a cool $2,450,000….It’s really got everything, according to the webpage….How about an 8′ TV screen for watching movies, and a salt water swimming pool up in the mountains…5 fireplaces….3 garages, and 11 acres to roam in…..What more can you ask for????….
Personally…..I just settle for the $2.450,000 without the house….Thanks!!!!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by michael f
2008-08-26 08:53:20

The house I have been watching in Mirasol off PGA Blvd in PB Gardens has been reduced again to $569,000. The original listing price was $1,125,000 and it has been on the market since 6/16/06 over 26 months. Original purchase price was $872,984 in October 06. Looks like they tried to flip it even before settlement.

Here is the part that is hard to believe, the person bought this house with NO money down. There is a first mortgage for $698,386 at 7.35% that resets in November of this year to 6 month Libor plus 5.25%. The second is for $174,596.

So at this price the second mortgage holder is completely wiped out and the first will only get back around 75%.

This is being offered as a short sale, are things bad enough down there that the bank would let this go for $350,000 because that is what I am thinking about offering. Any opinions. Thanks.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 09:19:15

Banks are often in denial until it is on their books. At the point of a short sale, it’s not on their books yet. It doesn’t hurt to make the offer though.

Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 10:11:35

Well, I assume you could make the offer, BUT, don’t expect a reply for 6-8 mos…Matters of National Security have to be delt with by the titular head of the company…..AKA: The Big Teat….

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 10:22:51

They do take a while, but I’ve also seen it the other way too. I had a bank say, “Sure, we’ll take the short sale but you need to close by next friday.”

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Comment by John
2008-08-26 13:43:51

I know of a recent short sale on a 4 bed 2.5 bath home in the Bear Lakes area of central West Palm Beach. It was purchased new in 2002 for $212k and sold for $420k in 2005. The new buyer offered $180k and the bank countered with $190k. It seems they are starting to capitulate. It can’t hurt to make an offer and see what they come back with.

Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 17:15:02

I remember when those DiVosta homes were built over there in Bear lakes…..And “IF” my memory serves me correctly, the price of $160-190K were close to what they were offered at back in the mid-1980’s….
Personally, I don’t think they are capitulating…..I think they are getting ‘copulated’….

Comment by John
2008-08-27 12:14:19

Juno,

You are correct. My parents live in one of those Divosta homes. Their house was purchased new by the original owner in 1987 for $140K, they purchased it in 1994 for $150k, at the height of the market an identical home down the street sold for $500k, and now none sell. If someone really wanted to move one they would have to go below $200k again.

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 08:57:38

This seems like the month of capitulation at long last…

Instead of houses creeping down in value as was their fashion for the past few years, in Florida some houses lost 13% of the value, since June of this year.

Does Florida become the crash-test-dummy for the rest of the country, to show us what to expect?

Comment by turnoutthelights
2008-08-26 09:59:05

Not to steal the Florida thread, but that honor looks to go to Merced, CA. Already down 52% since its peak in Summer ‘06.

And still falling. Income to price ratio says a better than 60% fall - if it doesn’t overshoot.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 10:20:03

There’s a town just begging for mercy.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 10:51:25

We got the Merced-ese bends…

Welcome to the Hotel California

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Comment by aqius
2008-08-26 11:28:28

nice

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 11:52:28

Mercy Killing…

 
Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 17:20:23

It really is the “Hotel Florida”, where you can buy your way in, but “NOBODY” will buy your way out!!!!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by megamike
2008-08-26 09:02:21

I am presently in St. Louis Mo but also I also renting a 1900 sq ft townhouse condo in Sarasota Fl (the lease is up in March). The idiot that bought this place in 2006 paid 301.0000 dollars for this place and I wondered why he paid 301.000 the 1,000 being the question. Not long ago a Realtor friend of mine said the 1,000 was probably his down payment rolled into the purchase price and payment. Man did this buyer get scammed the townhouse (built by centex) has the most basic/cheap items installed with a “lake” (retention pond) behind it…what a sad rip off. Oh by the way the owner is from New Jersey

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 09:05:21

I’d like to know where Centex gets their money, they are STILL building around here (South Hillsborough), though I expect Hawk’s Point is their last hurrah in the area.

Comment by dumbo
2008-08-26 09:28:58

From stockholders who are calling bottoms or betting others are.

Finance is great.

 
Comment by fran chise
2008-08-26 12:32:27

It’s like diarreaha. Once it starts, you have to keep going until the system gets clear.

Comment by Northern Renter
2008-08-26 12:59:41

No, fran chise, diarrhea is when the bottom is calling, not when the stockholders are calling bottoms.

NR

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Comment by Bad Chile
2008-08-26 15:01:20

One of these days I’m gonna write this in Word so I don’t have to retype it. Here is the easy reason Centex is still building.

(all numbers are hypothetical).

Lot: $200,000 (sunk cost)
Utilities/Permits/Planning/Engineering: $50,000

So they’re in the hole for $250,000 - and the have nothing on the ground.

Line up contractors, order materials. Cancel development. Assuming they have to pay about 20% to cancel subs and delivery, they’re out $20,000.

So assuming they don’t build, they lose $270,000.

Now assume they build. They’ve sunk $350,000 into the home. Originally they were planning on selling it for say, $400,000. Not a shabby profit, espically when you own the financing company.

Now reread what I wrote above: At the stage we’re at in the decline in prices, Centex is better off building a house for $350,000 and selling it at $150,000 than they are in not building it. Plus, they’re better positioned to continue buisness. The minute Centex stops building, the minute you know the bottom has hit.

Comment by packman
2008-08-26 17:51:03

The problem is -

- Centex is still breaking ground on new neighborhoods (thus haven’t sunk the $50,0000 or the $20,000). They just broke ground recently on a neighborhood near me in a very bubbly area near DC.

- Your numbers don’t take into account the write-off and/or sale of the lot - probably worth at least $70k on a $200k lot.

Thus if they were able to sell at $150k vs. not building and then later selling the lot:

- Build and sell = $200k in the hole ($350k build cost - $150k sale price)

- Don’t build = $130k in the hole ($200k lot cost - $70k lot writeoff/sale)

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Comment by dumbo
2008-08-26 09:10:39

I’d like to propose that the William Beaver House getting finished out in Lower Manhattan is one of the uglier residence towers I’ve ever seen.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-08-26 10:10:47

Yes, but since they marketed the property as a perpetual orgy, does the target market care what the outside of the building looks like?

 
Comment by awaiting wipeout
2008-08-26 10:33:12

http://www.williambeaver.com/nav/about/building.html

Yep, it’s an eyesore. But then again, I am a Neo-Classical & New England style type of gal.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-08-26 11:32:00

When you are in the same neighborhood as that hideous thing (and I have been hundreds of times) those yellow patches look like Tyvek wrap that somebody forgot to take off. But the homeless shelter across the street really adds to the charm of the neighborhood.

Comment by dumbo
2008-08-26 13:14:53

I could almost overlook the bright yellow glazed brick patches (the promotionals sepia-tone it down) that look from a block away exactly like foam insulation, but the surface treatments of the spandrels directly overhead at street level look like some scorched, carbonized, gray-black cinder—like something overhead in the oval gaming halls of Caesar’s Palace in the 60s.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 09:20:56

“‘We’ve been saying prices were going to go back to 2003 levels,’ said Jack McCabe, a housing analyst based in Deerfield Beach. ‘Now, I’m starting to think it may be even worse than that. We’ve probably seen only 30 percent of the foreclosures we’re going to see over the next few years.’”

You’re late to the party again Jack. I thought 2003 levels at first and have been calling for mid 1990’s levels since the start of this year.

 
Comment by Curt
2008-08-26 09:21:37

I’m delighted to report that the bottom was reached here in West Central Florida at 10:35 AM edt. No wait, make that 10:45, no 11:06….nevermind, I’ll get back to ya.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 10:24:35

January 12, 2017 will begin the new bubble.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 10:41:24

Good News!

Everybody’s hep to the Mayan Calendar prophecy that says the end of the world is coming in 2012…

Isaac Newton thought we’d hold out until 2060 at the earliest, according to what i’ve read.

And Newton’s a kindred spirit to us, having lost his arse on the South Sea Bubble…

And besides, I like his estimate better.

Comment by DinOR
2008-08-26 11:19:50

aladinsane,

For a lot of us, it’s ALREADY over. I spoke with a young sales guy last week and talked about a friend of his that’s even younger that got talked into buying a house here in Portland. He lost it within a year and according to his friend, this guy’s life might as well be over!

It went into a full foreclosure, so no “deed-in lieu” or whatever. Courthouse steps action. The poor guy feels totally defeated and his credit is f’d for a decade. NOW, let’s imagine all the people that are much older, bled their retirement accounts dry to feed their “infestments” and are now losing those! Let’s see… no job, foreclosed, zero retirement account? Lord? I’m ready for you to come and take me now…

I ’survived’ the tech wreck. Believe it or not, I’m just now getting back on track. Very tough road back. I felt like I had no choice but to keep moving forward. Probably didn’t? But at the rate these people are sending in their jingle mail..? Might as well be “2012″ for them.

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Comment by dumbo
2008-08-26 16:13:57

Historically empires last only one Pluto cycle. (the US’s is coming up w/ Pluto in Cap.).

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Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 17:26:45

Nostradamus said it would end in year 2000….
I think he was correct….All this isn’t really happening, it’s just a figment of your imagination….just a bad hair spray dream

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Comment by SMF
2008-08-26 09:22:00

“‘Everyone is upside down in their homes and the appraisals come in too low,’ Jarvis said. ‘The values just aren’t there. It is going to turn around. It is just a question of when.’”

The market IS turning around, moron. These are the prices that will stick.

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-08-26 09:33:21

“Jeff Levine, a South Florida agent, agrees that it’s a good time to look for homes, as long as potential buyers aren’t skittish about the nation’s economy or Florida’s worsening job market.

‘As long as’? Wha…?
Yes, yes, silly buyers. Ignore that pesky ‘reality’ thingie. It’ll just harsh your vibe, and you don’t want THAT.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 09:35:55

I’ve got a house I’ll sell them…

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-08-26 11:07:08

After all, it’s MUCH more important to live in the moment. (Oh, dang, it’s that meditation seminar I went to last night. Neighbors invited me to go along with them. Took everything I had to keep from busting out laughing.)

 
 
Comment by Shannon Lefevre
2008-08-26 10:09:59

Thanks for the headline and the tag to Naples. We prefer end-users. They don’t create a false value for a real estate market like a large group of investors willing to spend more than true value for a property like they did in ‘05!

For all of you end users out there looking for a great place to escape the cold, give us a shout. South Florida offers better golfing and beach weather during the months of January through March compared to any other place in the country.

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 11:05:57

FOLKS, WE HAVE A LIVE ONE!! SUZANNE, IS THAT REALLY YOU?

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 11:09:53

C’mon, let’s all give a warm HBB welcome to Shannon, Suzanne’s Florida replacement. Quick as a wink, yer in the pink!

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 11:11:14

What I wants ta know is, are ya sellin’ Naples RE, or Mary Kay Cosmetics?

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Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 11:13:46

I don’t want to give any of these cheerleaders/real estate professionals/etc any satisfaction of even a reply.

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Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 11:22:45

I jes’ can’t help myself, Andy. I mean, is this the new realtor mantra: “End Users”?

I’ve had some very good experiences with realtors in the past, so I’m not as down on them as some are. I’m just creeped out by the contstant hype.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 11:52:15

I deal with real estate agents and mortgage brokers on a daily basis. The ones I work with I love, they’re people who are in it for the client and a mutually beneficial relationship. It’s the rest of them (like the ones fishing for clients on a BLOG) that I can’t stand!

 
Comment by postman
2008-08-26 17:00:19

shannon dont go into this ocean, bay or river. there are alot of gators and shark ready to take you out. re cheerleaders need to shut up and listen. you had your drunken parties for 5 years now bend over and take it. the housing bubble was over 2 years ago and even the feds cant stop the blood on the streets. i hate to be cruel, but i am very nice.

end users, dont make me laugh.

 
 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2008-08-26 11:26:24

Right click and open in a new page to check out the site - I do believe it’s Susie’s sister.

LOL,
Leigh ;)

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2008-08-26 11:11:48

That’s a little heavy on the pink, isn’t it Shannon? Anyway, howdy from a fellow former north Texan.

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 11:18:02

Dang, Ben, you Texas folk are a heckuva lot more perlite than some of us pore ole’ worn out Floridians. I have visions of Pepto-Bismol dancing in my head.

Aw, shucks, I guess I can mind my manners.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-08-26 11:43:40

Hey Shannon, where did you get that pearl necklace?

Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-08-26 15:18:55

Man, you guys are brutal today……….:)

Like someone took a big crap in your Cheerios.

End user = “Catcher”

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Comment by fran chise
2008-08-26 12:39:18

Ben,

I thought that Texans were never “former.” Similar to you never “used to be a Marine.” It’s always present tense. An expatriate so to speak. I heard from my spouse for years that you don’t become a Texas by moving there; you have to be born there.

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-08-26 13:15:39

That’s basically how most Texans feel, including me. But if someone has lived there a while, nobodys gonna say much one way or the other.

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Comment by snake charmer
2008-08-26 11:28:51

For all you end-users out there, Naples is a ridiculously-overpriced area with too many golf courses that during the bubble was clear cut, paved over, and turned into anonymous sprawl at a rate impressive even for Florida. At these prices you’d be better off staying in New Jersey.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-08-26 11:46:08

It looks like they also have an excessive amount of hosebags trying to sell real estate. I guess it’s back to lap dances and reach-arounds for Shannon.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 11:31:19

“Thanks for the headline and the tag to Naples. We prefer end-users.”

Here I was thinking Florida was all about dead-enders…

Comment by fran chise
2008-08-26 12:42:07

Naples median age=61 years.

 
Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 17:36:02

“”We prefer end-users.””"
Which end????….I want to watch !!!!

Comment by implosion
2008-08-26 19:28:19

It’s a bridge - so both.

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Comment by Homoaner
2008-08-26 12:04:21

“Thanks for the headline and the tag to Naples. We prefer end-users.”

And you really gave it in the end to those Floriduh RE buyers, didn’t you?

Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 17:38:20

Up here in North Carolina, they call us
“”"FLOR-IDIOTS”"

 
 
Comment by Steve W
2008-08-26 12:37:27

Oh, the irony…

at the top of the website:

Smart Girl, Great, results

extra comma not a typo on my part

Comment by Bad Chile
2008-08-26 14:55:46

You know, you think she’d have read the blog before posting here. That and yeah, the extra comma on the top. Oh, the irony.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2008-08-26 13:26:06

They don’t create a false value for a real estate market like a large group of investors

Ah, Shannon, but you didn’t object when those large groups of investors handed you 6% comission money, did they? And now that the investors are gone, you’re aiming for end-users, trying to double-dip fees from that exact same set of McCrapBoxes, most of which would faint at the sight of Hurricane Gustav.

You blundered onto the WRONG blog, my dear.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-08-26 15:43:06

Shannon, I don’t quite know how to break the news to you, but your website’s CSS and HTML are invalid.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 10:12:41

“‘It’s not so good for the seller,’ Muh said. ‘I tell them if you can hold on for a year or two it will be better.’”

If you follow the advice of realtor Brenda Muh, you will lose an additional 20%. Never listen to the advice of a commision only sales person as it is not in your best interest.

Comment by Lesser Fool
2008-08-26 15:27:28

In this case it might be, though (at least from Muh’s pov). It would be in Muh’s interest to have the seller drop the price and sell now so she can claim her commission. I’ve always wondered why the NAR never pushes that angle.

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-08-26 10:12:57

Looks like everyone is changing their mind. Those who said there was no bubble now see a correction.

“Since late 2005, home prices have dropped 30 percent. ‘It’s a massive dip over the past couple years, there’s no two ways about it,’ said John Mike, president of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.”

Those who saw the correction coming now predict an overshoot on the downside.

“‘We’ve been saying prices were going to go back to 2003 levels,’ said Jack McCabe, a housing analyst based in Deerfield Beach. ‘Now, I’m starting to think it may be even worse than that.’”

 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 10:16:39

“For months, Realtors have promised that the bottom is in sight and that their phones are beginning to ring with calls from eager buyers.

It should have said:

“For months, Realtors have lied to the consumer that the bottom is in sight and that their phones are beginning to ring with calls from eager buyers.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 10:37:22

Summer of 2003 I got 30 deals per week past my desk…that’s the slow time of year. 2004 was more like 40 deals per week. 2005 was about the same. By 2006 only 10 new deals per week and in 2007 it was closer to 6. Now I network with the top 5 real estate agents and top 5 mortgage brokers to get this business. Anyone who said in 2006 and 2007 that their phone was “ringing off the hook” was lying through their teeth!

Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 11:22:54

Anyone who said in 2006 and 2007 that their phone was “ringing off the hook” was lying through their teeth!

The only realtors who have the business are those who have been around for more than 20 years. I talk to these people every week and in the Tampa bay area and they tell a different story than the NAR does.

As for the mortgage brokers, it is just as bad. I just bought a new car a couple of weeks ago and the person who sold me the car was a mortgage broker who had been in the business for more than 25 years. His boss, was also in the mortgage business and almost had a heart attack when I informed him that foreclosures were being investigated for mortgage fraud in Florida. A month later, this guy was arrested and charged with mortgage fraud.

 
 
 
Comment by smathis
2008-08-26 10:20:51

“Stephen King, an investor who has bought and sold 300 to 400 homes in the past decade, says sales won’t pick up without 20 to 30 percent price declines.”

Good to know these reporters don’t know a fake name when they hear one.

Comment by Curt
2008-08-26 10:50:41

“Stephen King, an investor who has bought and sold 300 to 400 homes in the past decade, says sales won’t pick up without 20 to 30 percent price declines.”

Good to know these reporters don’t know a fake name when they hear one.

….King went on to say, “If I don’t snap theses bargins up, The Langoliers will get them.”

Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 11:26:45

“Stephen King, an investor who has bought and sold 300 to 400 homes in the past decade, says sales won’t pick up without 20 to 30 percent price declines.”

For Sale: large pet cemetery - read about it in the listing by Stephen King.

 
Comment by Homoaner
2008-08-26 12:11:25

“Stephen King, an investor who has bought and sold 300 to 400 homes in the past decade…”

All in a lovely development called Salem’s Lot. Where the all the best (blood)suckers live.

 
 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 10:28:58

“‘Everyone is upside down in their homes and the appraisals come in too low,’ Jarvis said. ‘The values just aren’t there.

Oh, the poor realtor who can no longer change the outcome on appraisals by black listing the appraisers who don’t provide the appraisal that the realtors want.

Well Jarvis, welcome to the new world of appraisals that cannot be influenced by the realtors and mortgage brokers. Your days of crooked realestate days are over!!!

 
Comment by reuven
2008-08-26 10:33:10

The News Journal reports from Florida. “Bob Staake inherited a modest Port Orange home from his parents in April 2007, but he lives in Michigan. So, he put it on the market — 399 days ago. After steadily dropping the price from $208,000 to $156,000, it finally sold last month.

He dropped it $4000/month for 13 months! He was lucky to sell. If his rate was any slower, he may have chased it all the way down to zero.

Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 17:52:23

Well, that Port Orange ‘Staake” house was a 1300 sq ft/ 2 car garage 20 year old house, with a just value of $188K…Records show, it hasn’t closed yet….SSOOO!!!! Mr Staake should NOT count his chickens…..He may again be counting sheep, from sleepless nights having slipped on an Orange Stake…..

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 10:47:12

“‘They’re selling the houses for $50,000, $60,000 or $70,000,’ Otto said. ‘We think they will go up in value. You just have to wait.’”

Typical realtor hype with no basis to support his claim! Just ask Japan what happened to their realestate prices as they waited and waited and waited, only to find out that the prices continued to fall.
The same is happening right here in the USA, specifically in the bubble states such as Florida.

Buy now, lose more money next year!

 
Comment by FED Up
2008-08-26 11:08:38

“Juhasz, who has a master’s degree in education administration, came to St. Petersburg to work as a substitute teacher and pursue her teaching certification. Buying a home was cheaper than renting, and no one loses money in Florida real estate, right? So she bought a 756-square-foot home in 2006 for $153,000. She completed her certification, but has been unable to get a full-time job. In 2007, her taxes and insurance went up beyond her means and she has been trying to catch up ever since.”

We’re in trouble if a master’s degree in education administration can’t figure out a budget nor do a little research & see that taxes and insurance will increase if you pay more for your house than the last guy did.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-08-26 11:15:56

The Masters is the reason no one wants to hire. Why pay someone more money when the piece of paper makes them no more qualified than the next person? This lack of budgeting proves that!

 
Comment by Skip
2008-08-26 12:06:13

Those that can do.
Those that can’t do, teach.
Those that can’t teach, administrate.

Comment by fran chise
2008-08-26 12:45:34

Those that can’t adminstrate, mast*rb*te.

 
 
Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 18:00:43

My wife ‘temporarily’ worked as a substitute teacher in Palm Beach County…Even with her Masters in Education, she was only able to earn $9.00+/hr…..She quit, when she found out our 13 yr old grand-daughter in Wisconsin, was earning $15/hr part time in the summer….Get out there, and get a good education….then you’ll know when your getting screwed for sure!!!!

 
 
Comment by Crusader
2008-08-26 11:39:25

I know this will offend some, but you can’t claim to be a home owner unless you’ve either:

(a) bought the house for cash
(b) paid off 100% of the principal

Until then you’re just renting from the bank, like the rest of us.

Comment by oxide
2008-08-26 13:39:47

I disagree. You’re not “renting” from the bank. You’re paying down the principal each month, even if it’s only a few dollars. Normal appreciation will cover inflation and closing costs.

That’s for a traditional mortgage of course, not I/O and all its spawn. It was the I/O that brought me to this blog. I was scratching my head like a pooh bear of very little brain, saying, “but but…and I/O is basically renting, right?”

Comment by Crusader
2008-08-26 16:34:04

Ah, that’s true about I/O. I know people who’ve done that. Idiots.

 
 
Comment by stewie
2008-08-26 14:04:07

…and even then you’re still renting from the state.

(c) Your state passes a moratorium on property tax.

 
 
Comment by Crusader
2008-08-26 11:43:31

But I need my 4000sq McMansion because, because, because….

 
Comment by Shannon Lefevre
2008-08-26 13:58:04

I just came back to thank you for the number of hits I’ve had on my website today and the lead for the Naples golf course property. Thank You and Best Regards!

Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 14:50:52

I had to fill up my car with gas the other day, and for some reason it wouldn’t accept ‘hits’ in lieu of payment…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-08-26 15:41:16

I have the same problem with the hits on my website

 
 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-26 15:07:50

I just came back to thank you for the number of hits I’ve had on my website today

Shannon, your total hits were 284279. Your total sales for the past seveeral months is a rather poor performance for the number of hits to your website! Perhaps you can write up a bunch of contracts and claim them as sales even after they fail to get funding and then brag again on the housingbubble.com.

I had a nice chuckle when I showed your comments to several attorneys friends in your area today!

Comment by palmetto
2008-08-26 15:29:02

Shannon shall henceforth be known as “Pepto-gal”.

Comment by CrookCounty
2008-08-27 17:50:41

Maybe she can sell the “Animal House”!

Why “Pepto-gal”?

{BUUURRRPPP} Why not?

Dean Vernon Wormer: Greg, what is the worst realtywhore in this State?

Greg Marmalard: Well that would be hard to say, sir. They’re each outstanding in their own way.

Dean Vernon Wormer: Cut the horseshit, son. I’ve got their disciplinary files right here. Who dropped a whole truckload of FBs into the open house meet? Who delivered the medical school cadaver ARMs to the alumni dinner? Every Halloween, the trees are filled with REA business cards. Every spring, the prices explode.

Greg Marmalard: You’re talking about Delta Peninsular Concepts, sir.

Dean Vernon Wormer: Of course I’m talking about Delta Peninsular Concepts, you TWERP!

 
 
Comment by Lesser Fool
2008-08-26 15:41:54

Your just jelious and biter that Shannon is smokin HOT! Plus, she has a really sexy voice on her voicemail. That’s the truth!! I would definitely pay a commission for her, ahem, services.

I just refreshed her page a few times and the counter increased each time :) If we all chip in (it’ll only take a minute of your time) we can help her satisfy her desire for hits to a level she would have never expected.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-08-26 16:26:08

Does she inhale 6% of those hits?

 
 
 
Comment by Shannon Lefevre
2008-08-26 15:54:30

Sorry I came across as if I was bragging. That “thank you” was genuine not meant to sound smarty pants. As for the hits, the number you quote is to my main page. People jump on all sorts of pages and may never see my main page but you are EXACTLY right. After all, it’s just Naples real estate. I’m not selling or talking about whole state real estate markets like you do… and as you’ve already expressed in your post, we certainly aren’t appealing to the masses right now. I don’t think I’ve ever had so many people hit my site because of one blog comment before. Of course I’ve never been accused of being a stripper or blasted about my pink website or called Suzanne…by the way what happened to her? Did you guys send her over the edge? There’s a pretty mean crowd around here….of course there are some great people here too. I’m sure my overall stats are really weak according to your standards so seriously..no bragging about me. You’re obviously a pretty popular person. How do you know so many attorneys in my area? Hopefully it’s because of good reasons and not bad ones. Surely there was something more exciting or more funny to talk about with your attorney friends than my comment…right?

Comment by Juno Moneta
2008-08-26 18:16:44

Naples, is kinda like the ‘Twlight Zone’…..None of the pictures have any people in them, except the one’s on the beach, where the Haitians are coming ashore from the sailboat….
Naples gives you that warm fuzzy feeling, that it’s so nice that NOBODY can afford to live there…..Of course,,, the Haitians live there for free….who can’t afford that????

 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-08-27 08:25:30

How do you know so many attorneys in my area?

Cases involving realtor and mortgage broker fraud.

 
 
Comment by Gulfstream-fixer
2008-08-26 16:33:25

Don’t let them bother you……they are just a bunch of nasty old curmudgeons, probably sitting in front of their computers wearing paisley boxers and dirty undershirts, and eating Cheetos. I am the ONLY guy on this blog that understands you. You only need to talk to me………

Uhhhhhh………can I have your number???? :)

Comment by aqius
2008-08-26 16:55:25

gulfstream grease monkey

he aint got the cheddar, baby. dont pay him no nevamind & get wit the hero, not the zero.

I’ll have you know can afford real food, not no cheap azz cheetos, like this here grey spaghetti & spam. see its first class all the way.

which means you deserve the full 6 …… percent (!)

towels imported from turkey, ya gotta relax

and renew.

now you

go

do.

 
 
Comment by SKB
2008-08-26 17:06:37

I am pissed, I put in a cash offer today and the listing agent said she will present the offer to the sellers but not to the bank.
It is a short sale, listed for 289,000 my cash offer of 170,000 was not good enough for her.
It is NOT my fault that the bank went ahead and borrowed a total of 440K in HELOC”s over the years on a home that cost the owner 166,000 in 2000. Yes, he put in a pool, big freaking deal, where did the rest of the money go? It didn’t go into the house, that is for dam sure.

I am pissed that this listing agent refuses to submit my offer to the bank.

I hate that this is a short sale, a REO is at least a year down the road on this place. The “owners” moved out weeks ago and the house is not looking like a f_ _ _ed up REO yet.

I guess I will have to sign another year lease on my rental….I really don’t want to do that.

 
Comment by lizziebeth
2008-08-28 06:25:12

Try and get your landlord to extend it three months with at least thirty days notice before leaving. They’d probably rather have you stay in longer and not have to deal with trying to rent it sooner than later. We have a month to month clause in our agreement. I’ve had the same luck buying. There are still enough stupid people to think that this is rock bottom. I’m not risking my “real money” on a home that probably will go down in value as half the neighborhood borrowed way more money than they can afford to pay back. It’s so frustrating! We were going to pay cash when we buy a house, but now we’re just going to put 20% down.

 
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