The Housing Bubble

The Aurora Sentinel reports from Colorado. “When local Realtor Sunny Banka shows any home to a potential buyer, she immediately heads downstairs. As the number of foreclosed and abandoned properties boom with the current housing crisis, copper wire, piping and other building materials are valuable commodities, and often disappear with former owners. ‘The first thing I do is I go to the basement,’ Banka said. ‘Do we have copper plumbing? Do we have a furnace? Do we have a water heater?’”

“A measure proposed by Councilman Bob FitzGerald and drafted by assistant city attorney Jack Byron would target lenders in order to enforce maintenance standards. ‘I’ve talked to people that are really upset, because there are five or six foreclosures on various stretches of various blocks,’ FitzGerald said.”

“For properties with two mortgages from two lenders, Banka said, the problem would be in assigning responsibility.”

“‘A lot of these properties … have two mortgages, there are two lenders. Who is responsible?’ Banka said. ‘A lot of these foreclosures were bundled in with other securities … They were sold as investments on Wall Street.’”

The Deseret News from Utah. “Utah’s economic outlook is grim, and relief may not be on its way any time soon, economists at a conference hosted by the Utah Association of Appraisers said Wednesday. Jim Wood, director of the University of Utah’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research, told the audience at the summer symposium in downtown Salt Lake City that the current economy is ‘a recessionary environment.’”

“‘I’ve been following the housing market for 35 years, and I’m as pessimistic today as I’ve ever been,’ Wood said. The current downturn rivals the economic woes Utah experienced during the 1980s, he added.”

“‘Construction employment is just killing the job numbers,’ he said, noting that the state has lost about 15,000 jobs in that industry alone.”

“Rick Lifferth, president of the Utah Association of Appraisers, said that many people in his industry are feeling pressured to inflate values in order to please lenders and sellers. He said the practice of padding property values is so pervasive that it is almost commonplace, and it is hurting the credibility of his profession.”

“‘In the residential business, it’s become more of the norm than the exception,’ he said. ‘You come up with any number the customer wants, to keep the business.’”

“Wood said that the number of foreclosures in the state would likely rise significantly in the coming months.”

“‘Right now, we’re at about 4,000 foreclosure filings in Utah’ in 2008, Wood said. ‘I don’t think there is any way we’re going to keep that below 12,000 or 13,000′ in the next year, he added.”

The Arizona Daily Star. “The question of whether we’re at the bottom is of special importance to one group of players in the real estate market: land investors. Seeking big returns down the line, hedge funds and other big investors are eyeing Arizona’s acreage and waiting for the market to drop to its lowest possible point before making a move, said Will White, a Tucson broker for Land Advisors Organization. That’s the good news.”

“The bad news is they aren’t in any mood to start buying yet, he said.”

“Prices for new homes - a prime indicator of land values - are still falling. Once considered a fairly scarce resource, land suitable for development looks a lot more plentiful now, White said.”

“The average selling price for new single-family homes in the first six months of this year dropped 19.6 percent from the first half of 2006, according to Hanley Wood. The average price per square foot dropped 11 percent over that time, according to the data.”

“Sahuarita and Green Valley: New-home sales are still pretty strong, but prices have taken a big hit, mainly because of heavy competition among builders, White said. Hanley Wood data show an 18.8 percent drop in the average new-home selling price from 2006. The average price per square foot fell by an even steeper 19.5 percent.”

“Southwest Side: Prices were sharply inflated here and are falling hard as builders discount heavily to get rid of inventory, White said. Development may take a while to pick up again as builders work through remaining lots, he said. The average new-home selling price fell 23.1 percent this year from the first half of 2006, according to Hanley Wood. The average price per square foot fell 21.8 percent.”

Las Vegas Now from Nevada. “Home prices may be off nearly 30-percent in Las Vegas, prompting many to predict the worst of the housing crisis may be over. But some Realtors know another round of foreclosures may happen in the next few months, flooding the valley with vacant homes. And people have two things to blame: liars and ninjas.”

“They may be new terms for a lot of us, but liar loans and ninja loans helped push the housing market to the brink of collapse. Now the rates are changing again in September and the scars from those liars and ninjas run deep.”

“Many consider them the villains in the housing crisis, and Realtor Cynthia Glickman says their reputation has been tarnished, ‘Oh yeah, look at these people, you know. They’re liars. They’re getting what they deserve.’”

“‘They assumed the values of the homes were going to go up. So they figured, what’s the worst that could happen?’ said Glickman.”

“The lenders were caught up partly in greed, partly in speculation, hoping the sky-high housing market would keep rising. Now the market seems headed for recovery, but Glickman warns the liars and ninjas have one last sneak attack. ‘There’s going to be another wave of people for probably another good three years,’ said Glickman.”

CNBC on Nevada. “It turns out Las Vegas isn’t recession proof. High gas prices affecting critical tourism from California, airlines cutting back flights, a housing boom burst like a Cirque de Soleil show gone bad, and the seizing up of the credit markets have combined to create what Mayor Oscar Goodman describes as riding out an earthquake in a very secure building: ‘You know you’re going to be safe, you just don’t know when the rolling’s going to stop.’”

“Off the strip, in the residential neighborhoods where the housing boom once burned hottest, realtors say the market is starting to reach equilibrium. That is, the number of homes going into foreclosure every month is almost matched by the number of homes being sold out of foreclosure.”

“Michael Antos of Prudential Americana Group just sold a home out of foreclosure for $350,000 that originally sold for $579,000. To sell the house, the bank not only slashed the price, but put in new carpet, hardwood floors and appliances.”

“‘The market is absolutely great for buyers,’ he said.”

“Trump Tower up the road is reportedly struggling. Trump, like others, built a ‘condo hotel,’ a development which includes hotel rooms and also condos which could be rented out as hotel rooms. Many of these, including Trump’s, were announced as 100 percent sold before a shovel went into the ground.”

“The problem is that many of the buyers were investors who couldn’t get financing when it came time to close the deals. Claims of 100 percent sold fell to more like 50 percent … or less.”

The Las Vegas Business Press. “The most shocking part of a new report on the Las Vegas resort development pipeline isn’t that, despite the economy, there are still more than 40,000 new rooms expected to be built by the end of 2012. The stunner is the dominance of high-end rooms.”

“A new report by Deutsche Bank quantifies the Strip development pipeline and points out that 89 percent of the new supply will be in the luxury category. ‘It is too much,’ says analyst Bill Lerner, who wrote the report.”

“According to the report, nearly 36,000 rooms added from 2008 through 2012 will be luxury. Those include more than 3,000 at Palazzo and nearly 1,300 at Trump Las Vegas, both of which are already open.”

“After that, the projections get dicey. They include nearly 10,000 rooms at the proposed Plaza and Elvis hotels, neither of which is off the ground. It also includes 5,300 at Echelon, which is now on hold.”

“When asked why resort developers would invest so much money in a market when they know competitors are building similar projects, he said the answer was simple: Everyone thinks their project will be the best. The problem is only one will be right, and the rest will be scrapping for business from a finite pool.”

“‘The view is that it is always somebody else’s problem,’ Lerner said of over-saturation. ‘A lot of these firms are willing to slug it out.’”

“The bankrupt $2 billion City Crossing project in Henderson has been effectively declared dead, but disagreements remain over how to bury it.”

“At the formal meeting with creditors on Aug. 14, developer William Plise made a passing reference to finding new equity partners to restart construction, which halted shortly after the Chapter 11 filing on June 2. However, the reorganization plan filed in July mentions only selling the 126-acre site.”

“At this point, lawyers for City Crossing and its lenders are trying to negotiate a settlement of the two major differences between them: How to sell the land and how to deal with Plise’s guarantees to cover any shortfall between the value of the land and the mortgage balances.”

“‘The future sale and development of City Crossing as a whole far outweighs the value of liquidating the project site to discount shopping buyers that are presently in the market,’ according to court documents filed by City Crossing. ‘Importantly, the sale of the property on a parcel by parcel basis will result in a loss of entitlements, which will result in the loss of value to creditors.’”

“In this case, fetching the highest possible price is important not only to the lenders, a mix of banks, individuals and trusts, but to Plise himself because he personally guaranteed all loans. In the event the land sale does not repay all the loans in full, he would have to dip into his own bank accounts or sell other properties he owns to cover any shortfall.”

“In its most recent version, the master plan called for 1 million square feet of offices, 1 million square feet of shopping, two hotels and 2,500 condos and apartments.”

“As the various loans came this year, Plise found it ‘impossible’ to round up fresh financing. ‘The perception among lenders has changed and the lending environment is gone,’ he said.”