Many Realtors Miss The Days Of The Housing Bubble
The Warwick Beacon reports from Rhode Island. “With statewide home sales down by 5 percent from last year and the median single-family home price down 12.5 percent from $280,000 in July of last year to $245,000 this year, many realtors miss the days of the housing bubble. Over 26 percent of all houses sold from April until July were either foreclosed properties or short sales-both of which sell at far below the market price.”
“Robert Scaralia, president of the Rhode Island Realtors Association said it’s an exciting time to be a first-time homebuyer. But realtors have a reputation for being eternal optimists. When the housing prices are down, they say it’s a great time to be buying homes. When prices skyrocket, as they did beginning in 2003, they incessantly point out that it’s a great time to be selling houses.”
“‘The affordability is back for the first time home buyer. I’ve been doing this for over 20 years, and I have never seen a better opportunity for people to get into home ownership for the first time,’ said Scaralia.”
“Richard Torres, a loan officer for Countrywide Financial who works in Warwick, said he’s seen a recent pickup in business. More people are seeking loans than a year ago, but the amount of money they’re looking for has decreased.”
“The old ways of no credit check loans have given way to solid background checks, said Torres, and he thinks that’s a good thing.’
“‘There are a lot of people who come in here and say, ‘oh my credit is good, but when I check it, it’s far from good.’ And these people would have gotten the loans in the old days,’ said Torres.”
The Republican from Massachusetts. “Springfield had 61 mortgage foreclosures in July, the second highest number of any city in the state behind Worcester’s 68. The Warren Group released mortgage data from across the state today. Springfield had 56 foreclosure deeds filed in June and 47 filed in July 2007 for an increase of nearly 30 percent year over year.”
“‘The numbers about foreclosures are no surprise,’ said Kevin M. Sears, a Realtor in Springfield. He said he’s seeing a number of owners attempt a short sale only to fail.”
“Sometimes, large lenders can’t approve the short sale and the house goes up for auction. It happened this summer to a Sears client with a home in the East Forest Park neighborhood. ‘I just drove by there the other day and the grass is up to my knees, and that’s just the beginning,’ Sears said.”
“Sears said squatters and thieves often target vacant homes. Foreclosed properties are also driving down the real-estate prices, especially the prices paid for multifamily homes because many multifamily homes are getting foreclosed upon.”
“‘It’s noticeable when there is a glut of bank-owned properties that are listed for 60 percent of what market properties are listed for,’ Sears said.”
The Boston Herald from Massachusetts. “Lenders took legal ownership of nearly 8,000 Massachusetts homes during 2008’s first seven months - more property titles than banks seized for mortgage nonpayment in all of 2007, new figures show.”
“‘Foreclosures (continue to be) a serious problem,’ Warren Group CEO Tim Warren said. ‘I think there are still a lot more foreclosures to come. Median (house-sale) prices are down 10 percent so far this year, and that can’t be good news for foreclosures.’”
The Boston Globe. “The Carruth, a mix of affordable apartments and market-rate condominiums in Dorchester, opened earlier this year, as the market for condos had turned sharply downward. Sales of the 42 condos in the building languished, with only three sold to date.”
“So, developer Trinity Financial Inc. of Boston decided to offer the units as a variation of rent-to-own - leases with an option to purchase at a potential discount.”
“Rent-to-own arrangements typically are offered in newly built condo developments in which units are not selling or are selling slowly.”
“‘It is getting more difficult to sell at the speed developers need to recover their investment,’ said Jon Gollinger, East Coast CEO of Accelerated Marketing Partners. ‘There is cash flow that is needed when they are sitting there empty.’”
“‘You see it in Florida and other areas where there are more distressed properties,’ said Jesse Holland, president of Sunrise Management & Consulting in Latham, N.Y. ‘Often a developer has sold some of the units and can’t sell any more. You can’t go forward and you can’t go back.’”
The Westminster Advocate from Maryland. “Jill and Jim Gallagher placed their Westminster home on the market nearly 10 months ago, and it’s still sitting there today.”
“In today’s real estate market, however, this is nothing out of the ordinary, as houses are staying on the market much longer than in previous years before the real estate bubble burst and the credit crisis began, said Russ Blackburn, president of the Carroll County Association of Realtors.”
“‘At the current time there’s about 1,300 homes on the market in Carroll County,’ Blackburn said. ‘That’s higher than usual.’”
“Blackburn said more houses are continuing to add to the inventory than are being disposed of. In July, 281 new county listings went on the market, while just 90 properties went under contract to be sold during that same month, he said.”
“Home values are also down from recent years in today’s market, and Blackburn blamed numerous variables for that. Factors contributing to the lower property values include the higher housing inventory, inflation, the uncertain economy, sellers competing with foreclosures and sellers taking any ‘reasonable offer’ after an extended amount of time on the market, he said.”
“Jill Gallagher said she thought her home was listed at a fair price, with the $310,000 asking price below it’s tax assessment. ‘We think that we’re asking a fair price, however if it sits another six months we may consider lowering it,’ Jill Gallagher said.”
“Prior to listing the house online, Jill Gallagher said they placed a sign in the front yard and used a broker in Virginia to get multiple listings for the house. ‘It seemed as though houses weren’t moving one way or the other whether you listed it with a real estate agent or not,’ Jill Gallagher said. ‘Financially we can save a few thousands [of dollars] and it just made sense.’”
“Two offers have been made on Jill Gallagher’s house so far, she said, but in both incidences the buyers couldn’t get the financing they needed so the offers weren’t able to materialize into a deal.”
“According to Blackburn, banks are being more selective about giving out loans these days. ‘You can throw their previous requirements out the window,’ he said.”
The Frederick News Post from Maryland. “Amid the housing crisis, the president of the local real estate association said the media are making the problem worse and should spread more uplifting messages.”
“Larry Riggs, president of the Frederick County Association of Realtors, argued in a recent newsletter to his organization that the media should work with agents for the good of the country to increase consumer confidence.”
“The media is no longer reporting news but is practicing ’social engineering’ when it comes to reporting the housing market, Riggs said. ‘If they don’t like those in power, they will put a certain spin on their reporting, and sure enough society will produce the fruit of the bad news they are listening to,’ Riggs said.”
“Journalism and business experts said media coverage stems from the troubled housing market. ‘What’s going on as far as declining housing prices is a reflection of economic fundamentals,’ said Steve Pilloff, a Hood College management professor. ‘If the media is being accused of painting a doom-and-gloom picture, that’s a reflection of what’s going on.’”
“Riggs partly blames the media for some consumers not buying homes. ‘The reason they aren’t is because they are afraid of the present market because of the press,’ Riggs said. ‘That’s why the number of foreclosures in relation to all sold (homes) is high.’”
“The real estate industry has an interest in portraying an environment that will sell houses, said Bernie Kohn, president of the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, a nationwide organization that represents business journalists.”
“‘That’s not our duty,’ Kohn said. ‘Our duty is to inform consumers about the reality of what’s going on, not to put spin on it for the benefit of the real estate industry.’”
“Reporters are focusing more attention on the economy, said Al Weinberg, a Hood College journalism professor. Journalists should remain objective, he said.”
“‘What’s the alternative? The news media should not be the chamber or commerce or the boosters of the economic forces of the country,’ Weinberg said. ‘They’re supposed to simply report what they perceive as reality.’”
“That isn’t stopping the real estate industry from trying to convey the benefits of the current market. NAR started its Surround Sound Campaign in March to encourage real estate agents to speak at public events and talk to media outlets, said NAR spokeswoman Liz Giovaniello. About 1,500 agents took classes related to the campaign, but no classes were held in Frederick.”
“‘We’re not turning folks into cheerleaders and denying there is some pain out there,’ Giovaniello said. ‘We really want buyers, especially those on the fence, to understand there are opportunities out there.’”
“Consumers aren’t always getting the full picture of the market, Giovaniello said. ‘We tell Realtors to not sit around and complain about the news coverage,’ Giovaniello said. ‘We say, ‘Let’s get out there and make sure your story is told.’”
“National headlines don’t always reflect local markets, Giovaniello said. ‘What troubles us is when local papers don’t have reporters tell local stories, and just run an AP story,’ Giovaniello said. ‘We feel like the AP story might give an OK overview of the national picture, but it doesn’t paint the picture of the local market.’”
“The association’s campaign focuses on low interest rates, decreasing home prices in most areas and a greater selection of homes on the market, Giovaniello said.”
“NAR is simply doing its job to represent real estate agents, Kohn said. ‘It’s what you do on behalf of an industry that faces tough times,’ Kohn said. ‘You have to find that little bit of silver lining.’”
The Virginia Pilot. “Nearly a year after work halted on Granby Tower, the city is finally moving to clean up the construction site, which some officials describe as an eyesore. Surrounded by chain-link fence, the corner of Granby Street and Brambleton Avenue is stark. There are deep holes filled with water, piles of discarded wood and steel and weeds growing 6 feet high amid rubble.”
“Cement pilings meant as the foundation for the 34-story, $180 million condominium project lay discarded.”
“The man behind the project, developer Buddy Gadams, lost his financing last September amid the meltdown of the credit markets, and has been pursuing new investors ever since. City officials have been steadfastly supportive.”
“However, Mayor Paul Fraim took the first step toward cleaning up the site earlier this summer. Gadams complied. By the middle of the summer, city officials began telling Gadams to do more.”
“‘The time is growing closer where the city will have to take some affirmative steps to reclaim the street, if Buddy hasn’t made real progress,’ Fraim said.”
“City officials say that cleaning up the site is necessary for the survival of businesses operating in the area. Keith Large and Richard Grether, owners of the Oasis restaurant at York and Boush streets, say their business has dropped 40 percent since construction for Granby Tower blocked York Street.”
“Responding by e-mail, Gadams said Tuesday he continues to pursue financing. If it hasn’t happened by the end of this month, the City Council may take stronger action.”
“‘At some point we’ve got to say, you’ve got 30 days to get your financing, or we’re going to take all of the barricades down,’ Councilman Don Williams said.”
Les Misérables are getting anxious…
“‘At some point we’ve got to say, you’ve got 30 days to get your financing, or we’re going to take all of the barricades down,’ Councilman Don Williams said.”
In the heart of Silicon Valley, there is almost no capitulation by sellers. I’ve heard the claims (on a national basis) about Option-ARM resets, Jumbo’s no longer being refinance-able due to lower valuations etc.
But I’ve not been able to find statistics on how many people here made large downpayments (from options and stock sales).
If that number is large, then prices may not drop since there will be others waiting to buy at elevated prices. If that number is small, then of course, prices will drop.
Ben, do you know of any data for mortgage/income ratios of existing housing for each town? (I realize that doesn’t tell you who may be sitting on the sidelines with cash, waiting to catch knives and prolong the process.)
Name,
If you haven’t already patrick.net contains all informations for the Bay Area. Lots of tech people and all the latest dirt. Of course the true RE believers are long gone but still a very informative crowd.
DinOR,
I haven’t been over there in awhile. Do you mean the trolls are gone or the original bubble crowd is gone?
sleepless,
As you can well imagine, the BA had some of ‘the’ most ardent RE bulls!
SF is becoming a “World Class City” and will be forever immune from the price corrections the unwashed masses will be exposed to…
Long gone.
The regular crowd is still there and as much fun as ever but I seldom post as more and more the BB’s have become localized. To Ben’s credit, he’s kept a National ( Int’l! ) focus. I’m not currently seriously considering FL for a “rainbird” destination… BUT ( at the right price you’d be surprised what “I” would consider! )
For the longest time I tracked LV. Then I fell out of love with it when someone here described it as really (3) cities. The Strip ( obviously ) Gated Communities and… the rest of it which is a freaking Ghetto! (So to whomever posted that, thanks for spoiling my little ‘fantasy’ with the truth)
Thank God for Oakland.
“‘You see it in Florida and other areas where there are more distressed properties,’ said Jesse Holland, president of Sunrise Management & Consulting in Latham, N.Y.”
But not in Latham, NY or anywhere else in upstate NY. Get a grip ya loser.
“Jill Gallagher said she thought her home was listed at a fair price, with the $310,000 asking price below it’s tax assessment. ‘We think that we’re asking a fair price, however if it sits another six months we may consider lowering it,’ Jill Gallagher said.”
Jill takes the cake, she plans to wait 16 months from listing before lowering her “fair” price. Why can’t these dunces realize that if their house doesn’t sell within 3 months that it’s overpriced, and in a declining market it just keeps getting more overpriced with each passing day?
BWAHAHAHAHAHA! (disclaimer: I’m not a patient renter. I already bought a house awhile ago and, alas, I didn’t get to screw anybody over. But I still think this is really super funny.)
‘Homebuyers turn screws on sellers’.
http://tinyurl.com/56daws
“We’re finding that buyers make an offer and if it’s not accepted, they just go on to the next seller,” said Don Plourde.
Huh? Huh? Yeah! How time’s have channnnnnged!
Over 26 percent of all houses sold from April until July were either foreclosed properties or short sales-both of which sell at far below the market price.
Please repeat after me, realtors and real-estate “reporters”: The price the house sells for on the open market is the market price. You might not like it, Mr. House Owner, but that’s a completely different and much more pathetic issue.
When the housing prices are down, [realtors] say it’s a great time to be buying homes.
As predictable as the sun rising in the east. Yet…
When prices skyrocket, as they did beginning in 2003, [realtors] incessantly point out that it’s a great time to be selling houses.
Wrong. As prices went higher the realtors continued saying “It’s a great time to buy.”
In fact, that’s all realtors ever say. There is apparently no brain inside, no logic chip, no switch, no adjustable functionality. The lights are on but nobody’s home. You pull the string and realtor says, “It’s a great time to buy” and keeps saying it over and over until it finally collapses when it runs out of ramen noodles.
It’s an important difference, because advocating the sale of housing implies that one thinks the price is high and headed down, which doesn’t jibe with the sunny sun sunshine continually beaming out of the nether regions of the National Association of Realtors.
“‘The affordability is back for the first time home buyer. I’ve been doing this for over 20 years, and I have never seen a better opportunity for people to get into home ownership for the first time,’ said Scaralia.”
This is an outright, bald-faced lie.
I lived in Rhode island between 1990 and 1993, after the previous housing crash and well within Mr. Scaralia’s window of “over 20 years”. I saw how housing prices got clobbered in the early nineties. Even adjusting for inflation, prices at that time were dramatically lower than they are today. It’s not even close.
What a liar.
Ben, could you please delete this post of mine? I messed up the formatting, but did it correctly on a second post below. Thanks!
(Sorry, the formatting disappeared from my post… trying again…)
Please repeat after me, realtors and real-estate “reporters”: The price the house sells for on the open market is the market price. You might not like it, Mr. House Owner, but that’s a completely different and much more pathetic issue.
As predictable as the sun rising in the east. Yet…
Wrong. As prices went higher the realtors continued saying “It’s a great time to buy.”
In fact, that’s all realtors ever say. There is apparently no brain inside, no logic chip, no switch, no adjustable functionality. The lights are on but nobody’s home. You pull the string and realtor says, “It’s a great time to buy” and keeps saying it over and over until it finally collapses when it runs out of ramen noodles.
It’s an important difference, because advocating the sale of housing implies that one thinks the price is high and headed down, which doesn’t jibe with the sunny sun sunshine continually beaming out of the nether regions of the National Association of Realtors.
This is an outright, bald-faced lie.
I lived in Rhode island between 1990 and 1993, after the previous housing crash and well within Mr. Scaralia’s window of “over 20 years”. I saw how housing prices got clobbered in the early nineties. Even adjusting for inflation, prices at that time were dramatically lower than they are today. It’s not even close.
What a liar.
Nice venom Chuck…… nice.
What the used- house salesman really means is:
“It’s a great time to generate a commision.”
I’m sure most HBB’ers will recall an actual NAR campaign from a couple years ago to the effect that “it’s a great time to buy, or sell, a house”.
Imagine that comment in another context. How long would you keep a broker who called you to say “It’s a great time to buy Microsoft. Or to sell it.”
Doghouse Riley,
Thank You, Thank You, Thank You!
In a securities environment that would instantly be identified as “churning” and you had best be ready to justify that statement. Let me suggest walking into the courtroom with so much documentation to support your position, you need a wheel barrow.
Mind you, that being a private conversation amongst two private parties ( with which you have/had an existing relationship )
To have made this a public ad campaign ( and get away with it? ) was, beyond belief. I can see saying it’s a great time to buy OR sell your Ozzie Guillen Rookie Card ( but we’re not exactly talking “collectibles” here are we? )
“oh my credit is good, but when I check it, it’s far from good”
This is so typical of MB’s these days. For 5 years ( min. ) anyone not currently in the throes of an active bankruptcy had ‘good’ credit. There wasn’t anything they couldn’t work around!
Debt-to-income? ( no problem )
Late payments? ( piece of cake )
So after a decade of enjoying ever looser lending standards they’re going to turn around and critique the very credit profiles they have created. Perfect. I’d expect no less.
DinOR
A small story for you or anyone else with a clear-headed interest… regarding credit. The salient facts:
1) I called Quicken loans to see about getting a pre-qual letter for a RE purchase. Now, now, just seeing how times may have changed.
2) I had pulled my own credit score 90 days ago. It is above 800. “Walk on water” high, a Wells Fargo lender had told me.
3) Quicken does a “soft” pull. Sounds like taffy, but the lad explains it means getting a read from perhaps one of the three main Keepers of Personal Data.
4) He calls back. Says Esperian (sp?), er, um, has me at a 683. I immediately think ID theft. Happened to a relative.
5) So I go online all willy-nilly and pull all three scores myself. The credit reports are free (one per year, as I understand federal truth in lending matters). I need the scores, so I plunk down $7.95 each to get ‘em.
6) TransUnion and the other, forget its name now, have me at above 800.
7) The Quicken guy says that with the 683, he can do a loan (as if I need Quicken) at 25 percent down. I can swing that.
But but but…. does anyone know why Esperian would arrive at a much lower number that the other two? Must have to do with weighting. Or, would this have anything about new changes in credit score reporting? Seemed to have been the same credit/financial info/debt ratios or whatever you want to call them on Esperian, so thankfully there isn’t some other milkcrate down in Rio with my credit card number.
Quicken guy said he could pull all the scores and they would take what I thought he called an average.
My household didn’t qualify for a stimulus check, at least not this year. A blessing. I am wise enough to know that circumstances can change quickly. Yet, until I take a turn on the wheel of misfortune again, which happens to us all, however smug we may be… my affairs are in order, to put it in the parlance of stuffy trust departments.
But I felt like I was being jerked around in order to be required to put down 25 percent LTV. And if that is happening with me, others less fortunate must be having a whale of a time getting loans. I think I saw somewhere that half of SFH “sales” locally fall out of escrow.
Was Quicken trying to manipulate me? Or have I overlooked something…?
Thanks is any advance.
I have no idea if you were being lead on, but I can say that I pulled my reports last year and made some minor corrections… no problems, just minor info where they didn’t have data or I didn’t understand what was listed (none of which affected my rating).
This year I have to submit my Social Security card with drivers license to get TransUnion - and they have my job from 8 years ago listed. Experian has a different address than the one that I’ve been at for the past 7 years and needs me to send proof of address.
Our private credit rating system sucks.
ooops - led, not lead
You say you pulled all three credit reports yourself? If so, then you should have been able to confirm the 683 credit score from E(x)perian yourself, no? IIRC, the report itself explains what negative (and positive) factors have impacted your overall score, and provides all the salient details. So… your answer should be right there in your hands.
Can’t say why one would report a 683, while the other two have you at 800+, though. There’s always some variance, but not usually that much.
But I felt like I was being jerked around in order to be required to put down 25 percent LTV.
Not even 10 years ago, being asked to put down 20% or having to pay PMI was S.O.P. for new purchase mortgages. It is hardly an unreasonable requirement. You may feel you are being “jerked around”, but OTC, Quicken is doing you –as well as itself– a big favor. A huge of the reason prices shot up so far so fast during the bubble was that buyers had no skin in the game. They were only risking other people’s money –none of their own. As a result, nobody cared about sane valuations or reasonable bids –the sky was the limit, and bidding wars with amateur speculators armed with NINJAs was taken for granted.
If you cannot muster a (perfectly reasonable) down-payment, then you really should reconsider trying to buy the property, regardless of what lender you select. It probably means that you cannot afford it, or that the property itself is overpriced for what the market will bear, or both.
Oh, and once most lenders start requiring sizeable down-payments again and other supposedly “obsolete” borrower qualifications, such as requiring proof of income, prices will have to fall to compensate. Which means you will be able to buy the same quality house –or a better one– for less money in the years to come.
The trend is your friend, why the big rush?
Mike.. thanks for the feedback. Had no idea they were requiring the additional info. A driver’s license? What if you don’t have one.
HARM…. The Esperian report did show minor dings that were consistent with the other reports, so, yeah, it was staring me in the face. It’s like they used the same facts and got different conclusions.
Your point about 20 percent down being reasonable in the first place is a good one. I recall putting 20 percent down on a shotgun house I bought near Rupp Arena in Kentucky in the 1980s, my first house. Sales price was $24,000; I was just out of college, so 20 percent back then was a big deal. As in big life savings wad of real money.
Of course, unless prices continue to fall, next to no one will be able to have 20 percent down. That is not a problem, in the year 2008, in the milkcrate household.
Thanks for the input.
milkcrate,
Wow, quite the odyssey huh? IMHO Quicken was one of the worst offenders for fluffing income and cherry picking FICO scores. Their masters must now have them on a short leash?
I think what has additionally surfaced is a real “parting of ways” where schools of thought on credit ratings are concerned. Just a quick example; we recently considered trading one of our cars in and the credit mgr. told us that what really counts any more is “payment history”! Period. He said they have all kinds of 800 fico’s just dropping their SUV’s off at the dealership!
I was frankly a little surprised, and then again not. I’m not saying this is in any way ‘your’ case but the reason a lot of people have awesome fico’s ( non-BB’s ) is that they’ve had ‘awesome’ lives! Steady employment, regular raises, no divorce, no illnesses in the family etc. Well having come from an aviation background I quickly learned that if something hasn’t yet gone terribly, terribly wrong.. ( it’s only because it is about to! )
Credit reporting agencies are just now awakening to that reality. Trust me, they’re agonizing over that data and each of them are trying to explain why someone they awarded “Sterling Status” just stiffed a boat dealer’s lender!
DinOR - Yes indeed, the scores can be the luck of life’s draw. Also,
I know some human beings who likely have “high scores” who wouldn’t throw a life preserver to someone drowning in the Pacific. They couldn’t find one. They couldn’t be bothered. They couldn’t look away from television. They worried about liability… or they might get wet. They are soulless.
Re aviation: I hired out a glider once in the Green Mountains near Stowe, Vt., with a pilot. Spectacular, quiet experience, arcing off the updrafts from Mt. Mansfield. (I was the smiling passenger in rear of craft.)
Why can’t the NAR simply admit to what they are? They’re an industry organization with a natural bias towards their product. It should surprise no one that they constantly sell real estate and cast it in a rosy light. If they simply admitted this, I’d be perfectly fine with that.
But instead they make housing out to be of national importance, and that we as Americans owe it as our DUTY to buy, regardless of the market, price, or analytics. This attitude trickles down to the consumers of houses,whom view their homes as investment tools rather than simple buildings. Once trouble brews, the NAR seems quick to react in an effort to prop up the market. if everyone knew the reality, which is that owning a house isn’t actually terribly important, and that in most cases in major metros, renting enables you to save more over the long run, then I suppose the NAR would be screwed.
That is what I figure, renting is still cheaper and less stressful than buying, even now after the prices have been coming down. I still can’t imaging committing myself to buying a 550,000 - 600,000 2 bedroom condo apartment in New York City. The prices may not recover for another 10 years, and in that time I will pay so much in interest that I will never make a profit on a property.
Why can’t the NAR simply admit to what they are? They’re an industry organization with a natural bias towards their product. It should surprise no one that they constantly sell real estate and cast it in a rosy light. If they simply admitted this, I’d be perfectly fine with that.
Exactly! And there’s nothing wrong with this sort of bias. I think of the organizations my consulting company belongs to to, like IAAPA (International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions). We encourage people to entertain themselves at amusement parks, fully admitting our bias!
‘Why can’t the NAR simply admit to what they are?’
If we’re going to get all fanciful and make crazy wishes, why settle for that one? How about: Why can’t Sweet Baby Jeebus march into Olympia in His toga and Birkenstocks and swiftly transform each and every single REtard hereabouts into a jam-filled donut and then line them all up in a long row and invite me to eat as much as I want, and stamp on all the rest? Why not that wish? That one is exactly as likely as yours is to happen. And there’s cups of delicious coffee at every 5th jelly REtard donut, so I won’t get thirsty, and there’s whipped cream dollops in the coffee, and of course the jelly is different flavors, not just all REtard raspberry.
Dammit, I want a jelly donut now. Just not Realturd flavored.
I wanted one, too, is why that particular wish came to mind. At lunch time I went out and got 3 at Wagners Bakery up on Capitol, so now I am completely appeased and not in the mood to kill anyone anymore. Unless they totally deserve it.
What is your favorite jelly doughnut?
I worked at a doughnut shop during high school. Learned alot about the making of doughnuts. I worked the early morning shift on weekends and the cook was kind enough to show me how to make and cook the doughnuts.
‘I worked at a doughnut shop during high school. Learned alot about the making of doughnuts. I worked the early morning shift on weekends and the cook was kind enough to show me how to make and cook the doughnuts.’
Oh, my GAWD! You can make donuts? You’re obviously a Ten (10) Cow Woman! (From Johnny Lingo, just in case you don’t know the reference. It’s not some bizarro cowboy thingie.)
Anyhow, you can make donuts! Tell us all about it! Quick!
It’s not the NAR’s fault they get quoted in the press for painting an unrealistically rosy picture of real estate - it’s their job, just like tobacco executives push cigarettes. What bothers me is that the press quotes these people unquestioningly. There’s a good chance that anyone who buys a house this year (and next, and…) will lose money big time before the whole real estate mess is done going splat, but you don’t read or hear in the news that it might be a good idea to wait. I hope people in the market are not relying on the media for their advice, because it could cost them.
>> “‘We really want buyers, especially those on the fence… .’”
The last thing we want is payments on a $400,000, or even a $200,000, house. We’re sitting on the fence because it’s a nice day, we just woke up, we can’t finish college because it’s an expensive pain in the ass, we’re unemployed, and we needed to go down the street and get some coffee.
‘…and get some coffee.’
AND a jelly donut.
Springfield A.R.M.ory?
“Springfield had 61 mortgage foreclosures in July, the second highest number of any city in the state behind Worcester’s 68. The Warren Group released mortgage data from across the state today. Springfield had 56 foreclosure deeds filed in June and 47 filed in July 2007 for an increase of nearly 30 percent year over year.”
Let me guess . . . they foreclosed on the Simpsons?
Looking at the option-payment recast graphs, which aren’t even a blip yet and max out in 2011, I think patience is a more than usual profitable virtue for most wanting a house right now. Not all. The contrarian investor in me is itching and bored.
Yesterday as I was on my way home from work, I stopped behind a Lexus SUV at a red light. The vanity plate read “REALTY4U” and next to that fine plate was the infamous “BUY NOW!” sticker.
“Larry Riggs, president of the Frederick County Association of Realtors, argued in a recent newsletter to his organization that the media should work with agents for the good of the country to increase consumer confidence.”
Yeah, I was never a fan of that First Amendment thing either.
“…for the good of the country…”
Soooo, it’s my patriotic duty not to act in my own best interest? What’s their next tactic? Lemme guess - the agents will conspire with the AMA to create a medical “study” that will conclude that not buying now will lead to heart disease?
“What’s their next tactic? Lemme guess - the agents will conspire with the AMA to create a medical “study” that will conclude that not buying now will lead to heart disease”?
If the RE leaches thought for one minuet they could get away with it, they would indeed. I don’t doubt they lobby to make buying a house a law.
Not feeling good about their finances leads to depr…–er not feeling good about something (their finances?).
Homelessness is a risk factor for homelessness.
“not to act in my own best interest?”
LOL. I said the same thing the other day to someone in the auto industry. This person was complaining that people didn’t realize that their neighbor’s healthcare was dependent on me buying one of their cars. I had a “I’m a little confused about how this capitalism thing is supposed to work” reply to that. “I’m not supposed to buy the car that best fits my needs for the best price, but instead prop up an inefficient and devolving manufacturer? Right. Somewhere I got confused on my role as consumer, clearly.”
“When prices skyrocket, as they did beginning in 2003, they incessantly point out that it’s a great time to be selling houses.”
Actually, I remember them (the one I was working with included) saying things like, “well, if you don’t buy now it’ll only be more expensive next week and you’ll wish you had bought it.”
(I coulda gone with “buy now or be priced out forever” but I’m gettin’ kinda sick o’ that one)
We’re better than that.
“Riggs partly blames the media for some consumers not buying homes. ‘The reason they aren’t is because they are afraid of the present market because of the press,’ Riggs said. ‘That’s why the number of foreclosures in relation to all sold (homes) is high.’”
Or we are afraid of the current market because we do our due diligence and have something of an idea of what will be coming along down the line when those Option ARMs reset.
On the other hand, we know what happens to Sheeple who rely on mainstream media to help them make decisions…
It gets even better:
The only “social engineering” going on is when they report on housing from the RE agent’s perspective. The RE agents don’t care about the good of the country, they only care about themselves (just like the politicians at a certain convention going on right now). Unbelievable.
Wow, I live in Frederick County, and I keep seeing the FCAR’s BS articles in The Gazette (free local paper that everyone gets). Their articles keep saying that now is the time to buy, bla bla bla. They never address issues like affordability (which still sucks a lot despite recent drops in house prices). I’m glad to see Larry Riggs being attacked at HBB.
At the risk of sounding like ByeFL with an oft-repeated message, I sat down with some MB friends who are the same way last week.
No care about the long term health of the industry, just keep pumping. They have no clue that they borrowed biz from the future and they have put their clients in loans that need to be refinanced every year.
One guy became really belligerent accusing me of saying he had no right to make a living. No, jackass, what I said is that you are killing your own ability to make a living for the long term. Reminds me of commercial fisherman complaining about catch restrictions.
I also told him I thought it was unethical what he was doing with his clients. And this guy is, of course, a “family values” type voter.
“And this guy is, of course, a “family values” type voter.”
In other words, dumb.
sleepless,
See? You can’t even have a rational discussion with these people! You truly can’t. I’m sure a lot of us have spouses that can’t understand why we find this stuff so damn interesting. Then you go to a party… and see exactly why.
In ways, Ben’s is the safest place to even bring up these discussions. I don’t know if any of you have noticed but two distinctly different ( yet equally dangerous ) breeds have emerged.
1) I Know every bit as much about the bubble as you EVER will! ( even though I ‘just’ read an article about it in Time and bought a vacation home in 2005 ) and:
2) Here we go again, another doom and gloom bubble ‘disciple’ coming to bore me to tears!
Very dangerous. Keep distance.
That’s why I don’t have any spouses. I mean, that are mine, strictly speaking. Because spouses are dumb, and if it’s yours, you can’t send them home when they get stupid.
That’s a weekend topic, for sure.
That’s a very interesting way to put it: “Borrowing business from the future. I think that may be only partially true. The auto industry in the boom times managed to avoid that trap for quite a while by creating higher churn with faster updates to their fleet. I noticed that real estate with the (mostly meaningless) tile and countertop update binge and every swelling square footage seemed to be trying for the same thing–trying to get homeowners to swap houses faster. Up until the point where this practice irrevocably degrades the finances of the buyers, this could work–people upgrading houses would entice others to do the same, in a kind of mass fashion hysteria. IF you could pull it off without the unsustainable rise in prices, I wonder if it might have worked. But they got greedy. After all, it worked for cars for a long time (which are nearly always a rapidly depreciating asset), why not houses, which generally aren’t.
I think your fish analogy is spot on. They started killing off the base stock, especially the x% of buyers who could be enticed to become churn purchasers. These burned customers are not going to reenter the market within this guy’s business lifetime. What remains is the more pragmatic renters and those who have no mortgage payments left on the current abode. Slim pickin’s when you are count on selling on high emotion.
Oh wow, Granby Tower made the HBB! If anyone is local (Norfolk, Hampton Roads area) and would be interested in a HBB meetup I would be game. I consistently post about the bubble on Pilot Online. You can see someone attacking me in the comment box today even. We are still bubblelicious, but I still know people that want to buy. I, like them, absolutely hate renting as well… but know the deals are to come.
Hey! I’m in Norfolk. I’m game.
This NAR BS has gone on long enough.
The Frederick News Post from Maryland. “Amid the housing crisis, the president of the local real estate association said the media are making the problem worse and should spread more uplifting messages.”
This should have been the very 1st QUOTE out of the mouths of the MSM when this RE Ponzi scheme BEGAN !
“‘That’s not our duty,’ Kohn said. ‘Our duty is to inform consumers about the reality of what’s going on, not to put spin on it for the benefit of the real estate industry.’”
“…spread more uplifting messages…”
The media is not necessary at all - real values speak for themselves. When prices make sense houses will sell.
Something’s being “spread” alright - for some agents it’s their legs - but for most it’s just a lot of bull like this.
I really enjoyed the telecom bubble, but I’m not out there trying to con folks into bringing it back. And I never cheered it on in the first place. The minute they started the PCS spectrum auctions I started telling friends and family that once the euphoria wore off a lot of the companies would be bankrupt, their business plans didn’t make sense.
This bubble is a great teaching moment for our family. I’m explaining to my kids exactly what is going on. They don’t quite get the $$ amounts involved, but even a 6 year old can understand the basics.
It is an excellent teaching situation. As you drive along with your kids, point out all the things for sale on the side of the road and say, “See, johnny, see janey, if you carefully save your money when everyone else is spending theirs like mad, later you can buy three times as many toys when those silly people have to sell theirs for a loss. Remember that, save your money when everyone else is spending all of theirs. Be patient and you can buy all kinds of neat stuff later.”
They should leave the waterfalls up along the East River. I didn’t think I’d like them as much as I do.
“People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Can we have a tulip bubble again?