The Housing Bubble

The Wall Street Journal reports on Florida. “During the housing boom, Florida attracted hordes of speculators. By some estimates, more than half of all the deposits for Miami condos were put down by people planning to flip them for a profit without living in them, says Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach, Fla. But developers built far more condos than demand could absorb. The glutted Miami market now has close to 50,000 units — a record four years’ worth of inventory — for sale or under construction.”

“Faced with such sobering prospects, many buyers no longer want to close on their properties, as they risk steep losses when they try to sell. In some buildings, as many of 30% of condo buyers are turning to the courts in an effort to cancel their contracts. If unsuccessful, they have to either go ahead and close on a unit they no longer want or walk away and lose their deposits.”

“Dora and Umberto Arena, of Hollywood, Fla., are among the thousands of investors who are looking to the courts for relief. When the Arenas bought their deluxe $595,000 condo in Hallandale Beach, developers urged them to move quickly to put down their $120,000 deposit. The planned 283 units at the Ocean Marine Yacht Club in Hallandale Beach sold out in only three weeks when they were offered to the public three years ago.”

“‘We saw this beautiful 48-slip marina in their brochures, and it sounded wonderful to have a place for a boat and to live in that brand new building,’ says Ms. Arena.”

“Despite the name, the Ocean Marine Yacht Club has no marina, as the developer was unable to secure the necessary permits. ‘We were inundated with literature touting it as a marquee feature of the complex while the developer was failing to disclose it didn’t have the necessary permits or approvals,’ Ms. Arena says.”

“Ironically, the growing number of lawsuits may actually make the problem worse. A high rate of units contested in court makes buyers nervous about closing and moving into a half-empty complex, which further depresses the market, says Mr. McCabe. That, in turn, will give buyers more incentive to sue.”

“‘Real-estate lawyers nationally are closely monitoring the Florida lawsuits, expecting a wave of similar claims across the country as more condominium projects are completed.”

“‘The market in Florida is two years ahead of other parts of the U.S., like California or the Sunbelt states, in both the heavy downturn in prices and the lawsuits following it,’ says attorney Robert M. Chasnow.”

The Palm Beach Post. “The government takeover of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sent stocks soaring Monday, but the bailout is unlikely to do the same for home prices, real estate experts say. Pessimistic observers see little connection between Sunday’s move and home prices in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast.”

“It doesn’t make homes significantly more affordable, and it doesn’t hold back the flood of foreclosures in Florida.”

“‘The three key factors are still inventory, foreclosures and affordability,’ said Jack McCabe, a housing analyst. ‘We still have way too much inventory, way too many foreclosures and prices that are out of whack with incomes.’”

“Prices for ‘middle-management’ housing in Palm Beach County are well off over the past two years, according to Coldwell Banker’s annual Home Price Comparison Index.”

“The survey calculates the price of a 2,200-square-foot house with four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms and a two-car garage. The typical such house in West Palm Beach costs $334,750, down from $507,750 in 2006, a decline of 34 percent.”

“In Boca Raton, the tab is $462,125, down from $623,750 in 2006, a 26 percent drop.”

From Florida Today. “Apartment tenants have become more difficult to find and keep as Brevard County landlords endure the faltering economy. ‘We have lost tenants because of the economy, and we haven’t been able to bring people in,’ said Roberta Altman, owner of the Pines in Indian Harbour Beach and several other rental properties in Brevard. ‘We have vacancies in some of our rentals that we never had before.’”

“‘We’ve had more people move out of the area due to job loss,’ Larry Berry, president of the Space Coast Apartment Association, said. ‘The construction trade industry here has pretty much stopped.’”

“One apartment complex in Palm Bay found it had to offer two months’ free rent and a gas card worth several hundred dollars to attract tenants. ‘That’s what it’s starting to take. That made it more affordable for them,’ said Jackie Collins, business manager for Woodlake Village Apartments.”

“With 462 units, it is the largest complex in Brevard, said Collins, who added that there has been a ’substantial’ increase in tenants breaking their leases. To stem the tide, rental prices were lowered, even for present tenants.”

“‘You have to take care of the business you have,’ Collins said. ‘You have to do the same for them.’”

The Orlando Sentinel. “With the high-rise cranes gone from downtown Orlando’s skyline and the region’s home builders still in a funk, the outlook for construction jobs in Central Florida is bleaker than it has been in many years.”

“Commercial projects have absorbed some of the jobs lost by the slump in residential work, but the market for offices and warehouses has also weakened. Construction employment in Metro Orlando, after peaking at 87,800 in June 2006, has shrunk by nearly 15,000 jobs, a drop of almost 17 percent.”

“‘The slowdown has finally reached commercial,’ said Todd Andrew, founder and president of Andrew General Contractors Inc. in Orlando. He recently laid off about half his staff, and the number of subcontract workers on his job sites has dropped by 50 percent, too. His company lost several major projects recently when the customers’ financing fell through.”

“‘I’m just scraping by, doing what I can,’ said Steve Oakley of Orlando.”

“A professional framer for more than 12 years, Oakley’s construction career ‘went down the tubes,’ he said, when the region’s home builders slammed on the brakes more than a year ago. For now, he’s helping a friend paint apartments for $12 an hour, but he really needs to make $18 to $25 an hour for financial stability.”

“‘I’ll do anything to make ends meet, as long as it’s legal,’ Oakley said.”

The Naples News. “As the year comes to a close, the outlook for employment in the Fort Myers-Naples market is expected to be one of the worst in the nation. Locally, only 10 percent of companies plan to hire more employees while 43 percent expect to reduce their payrolls. Another 47 percent will keep their staff the same size, according to the survey. That means there is a negative employment outlook of minus-33 percent.”

“In Lee County, the unemployment rate rose to 8.4 percent in July, up from 7.6 percent in June and 5.1 percent last year.”

“‘Clearly we are in a recession. It’s going to deepen I suspect before it gets better,’ said Michael Reagen, president of the Greater Naples Chamber of Commerce.”

The Herald Tribune. “In a year marked by a 50 percent jump in unemployment and a record number of foreclosures, the economy and jobs were the top worry of 22 percent of county residents questioned in a survey taken in July and August for the county.”

“Last year, the economy was hardly a blip in the annual county survey, ranked as a top concern by 4 percent. Five times as many people cited the economy and jobs as a concern this year.”

“The findings contrast with the boom years, when the county’s annual survey found the biggest local worries had to do with handling all the prosperity. Growth, traffic and affordable housing were the top concerns between 2002 and 2006.”

“‘You could have taken a poll just about anywhere in Florida and you’d find the same thing,’ said Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida political scientist who conducted the survey.”

“Ninety percent of those considering a move say they would move out of the state. Those considering a move were asked what could change their minds. The most common answer was ‘nothing,’ which was given by 29 percent.”

“The verbatim responses of those who said they were leaving Sarasota County went from the aesthetic ‘Miss the seasons,’ to the practical ‘it will be easier to be where our children are,’ to the economic ‘My wife lost her job,’ and the irritated ‘The government is a mess.’”

“For several people, the Sunshine State had lost its luster. ‘Anywhere else besides Florida’ and the ungrammatical ‘I’m just fed up with state’ were among the renderings of quotes taken by the surveyors.”

“Osprey resident Kenny Hochstetler said he considered leaving when gas prices and insurance rates began going up. The idea was to move to a cheaper area, but Hochstetler realized he could not sell his home in the poor real estate market. ‘I don’t think I’m going anywhere for a while though,’ he added.”

The News Press. “Lee County is drowning in more than 22,000 open foreclosure cases while the county is forced to send to the state surplus dollars from the fees assessed to process the foreclosures.”

“Clerk of Courts Charlie Green is fed up and is ready to withhold $200,000 to $300,000 from foreclosure and other court fees his office collects to clear the backlog, rather than feed state coffers.”

“‘If we can do it and there is no other way, then I have no choice but to withhold funds to get these cases adjudicated,’ Green said. ‘What are they going to do, cut my eyes out? Beat me to death?’”

The Tampa Tribune. “In the heart of Apollo Beach, hidden by swaths of vacant land, is a scene reminiscent of the boom years. In the midst of the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression, one company is moving forward with plans to develop 6,400 homesites in a 2,350-acre master-planned community.”

“The developer, San Diego-based Newland Communities, hopes Waterset will kick-start the local real estate market. And it’s betting the troubled market will be ready before the planned grand opening next fall.”

“Even Newland executives admit their optimistic plans are somewhat risky in a saturated housing market. Other developers have put plans on hold or have scaled back dramatically. Some builders face foreclosure on their land and are selling at fire-sale prices. Across the Tampa Bay area, there are shells of subdivisions that started during better times and have stalled.”

“‘Other builders and developers may look at us and say, ‘They’re crazy,’ said Pam Parisi, regional marketing director for Newland. ‘But we have a real passion for this. We want to be ready to pull the trigger when the market comes back.’”

“There are more than 31,000 vacant lots scattered throughout the area, according to housing research firm Metrostudy. That’s on top of 2,982 empty homes that builders have been unable to sell. Homes are selling so slowly that Metrostudy estimates it could take more than five years for builders to work off all the inventory of finished homes and lots.”

“Jack McCabe follows the state’s housing market and said Waterset is unique, aggressive and risky. ‘How do we keep adding on to an oversaturated marketplace?’ McCabe said. ‘Some developers think that when others fail, that’s when they’ll succeed. But this is a move that comes with a heightened degree of risk during these very uncertain times.’”