Too Many Shoes To Drop In California
The Press Enterprise reports from California. “Foreclosures could continue to depress the Inland economy for years because of mortgages popularized during the housing boom that are starting to haunt homeowners. Already these mortgages, called option ARMS, are showing high default rates. When Sheri Osorio decided to refinance her Corona home two years ago, she chose an option ARM. She did not expect to be required to make a fully amortized payment every month until 2012, when her loan was scheduled to recast.”
“Osorio, an escrow officer who depends on commissions, grabbed the chance to lower her house payment occasionally without undermining her credit, even though she understood that it was too little to cover the actual monthly adjusting interest on her loan and would take bites out of her equity.”
“Then the housing market tanked and Osorio’s income shrunk in half. So the divorced mother of four routinely chose the minimum payment, with the result that in two years her mortgage increased from $350,000 to $365,000, while her home value shrunk from $630,000 to $330,000.”
“Osorio’s loan papers stated that this payment adjustment would occur early if her mortgage increased to 110 percent of the original loan amount. But she said she never realized a loan balance could grow so fast. ‘I thought it would be years down the road. Not two years into the loan,’ she said.”
“Of the nearly $253 billion in option ARMS tracked by LoanPerformance, California has more than half, with $142 billion. LoanPerformance watches the option ARMS that have been resold to large investors as securities, or about 60 percent of the total.”
“Riverside and San Bernardino counties, with almost $16 billion in securitized option ARMS, has the third largest volume of 360 major metropolitan areas in the U.S., trailing only Los Angeles/Long Beach and San Francisco, according to LoanPerformance. There are nearly 40,000 securitized option ARMS scheduled to recast in Riverside and San Bernardino counties by October 2012, with activity peaking in August 2011.”
“Osorio said she planned to ask GMAC for a loan modification. But with grocery and gas prices high and her industry in deep recession, she faces an ongoing struggle. She said she does not know what she can do to avoid foreclosure when her mortgage recasts in 2012.”
“Osorio also hopes the federal government’s mortgage industry bailout plan will assist people like her, she added. ‘I keep telling myself you are holding yourself above water. Just keep holding on,’ she said.”
The Daily Bulletin. “Like dominoes, a slew of major institutions have fallen and fallen hard as the ripple effects of mortgage loan defaults, home foreclosures and tightened credit standards continue to work their way through the U.S. financial system. These events bear sobering testimony to just how broad and deep the nation’s economic crisis has become.”
“‘I don’t think anyone would have been willing to predict it,’ said Sven W. Arndt, a professor of economics at Claremont McKenna College.”
“The lucrative subprime market fueled unbridled lending by over-eager mortgage lenders. As a result, loans were often given to people who couldn’t provide a down payment. And they they were offered 100 percent financing, according to Norman Cox, a regional VP with Coldwell Banker Town & Country in Covina and Claremont. ‘They were basically given to anyone who could fog a mirror,’ Cox said.”
“The unstable housing market, combined with the meltdown of banks, has thrown a wrench into the progress of a much-awaited mixed-use development downtown. Plans called for the design phase of The Artisan, a development of Watt Communities with more than 200 housing units, to begin in 2009, said Raymond Fong, deputy executive director of the city Redevelopment Agency.”
“But ‘they are not going to be starting soon,’ Fong said. The development firm recently completed a market study that ‘didn’t show a market now for condominium sales,’ he said.”
“Home sale prices are where they were in the first and second quarter of 2004, the period before prices exploded with the help of speculators, said Redlands-based economist John Husing. Those prices are at such a level that about 50 percent of buyers can actually afford to purchase about half of the homes available, he said.”
“‘The question is can a developer build at the early 2004 prices. The answer is probably no,’ Husing said.”
From KTLA. “More than 100, once-pricey pieces of southland real estate were gone… sold at auction this weekend in Ontario. Many properties sold for up to half off their peak prices.”
“‘We’ve been really looking for a place for the last 7 years and we just couldn’t afford anything until now. We got a three bedroom, two and a half bath, single family residence in Chula Vista,’ said Genevieve Peters. She and her husband Serge Laifer scored a real deal… They paid 186-thousand dollars, down from nearly 325-thousand.”
”’These auctions help clear the market and we’re not going to have a recovery until the market’s clear of this excess inventory,’ said Michael Davin, President of Zetabid Brokerage Services.”
The Glendale News Press. “In Glendale, the average price for a single-family home fell about 11% in August to $614,500. The average price for a home in La Crescenta dropped 14.1% to $599,000, according to local Realtors and DataQuick.”
“‘That’s a good thing because it gets more affordable for young people . . . who want to live in Glendale,’ said Eduardo Martinez, an economist with the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.”
“New home purchases for July fell by 6.2%, the first such decrease in six months, according to First American CoreLogic. ‘With property values going down across the board, people have less home equity built up so that reduces the amount of buyers you’re going to have in the local races, like Glendale, even further,’ Martinez said. ‘For the local level, you’ve got a lot of people sitting on the sideline just waiting to see when the housing situation is going to bottom out . . . which causes values to go down.’”
The Union Tribune. “Relations between lenders and builders have become increasingly strained in recent months. Disturbing to builders is the fact that some banks are enforcing personal guarantees that make them personally liable for repaying the debt.”
“‘I think it is really hard for (builders) to try to fight back and sue banks for pulling financing,’ said Ivy Zellman, a real estate market researcher. ‘The reality is the love affair is over. The banks have to do what they have to do. They have capital requirements and regulatory pressure.’”
The Desert Sun. “Fred Bell, executive officer of the Building Industry Association, Desert Chapter, said the Construction Industry Research Board has reported that new construction starts are off by 90 percent since the peak of market activity in the third quarter of 2004.”
“Anecdotally, Bell said he’s heard that even after the standing stock of about 1,000 new homes are sold, there may not be anything built behind it until the sales of foreclosed homes wind down.”
“Bill Powers, Pacific Western Bank CEO, has for years warned consumers and business leaders in the Coachella Valley of sub-prime and exotic mortgage lending consequences. ‘There are too many shoes to drop, and they’re still dropping.’ Powers said.”
The Sacramento Bee. “Rocklin-based Five Star Bank, which specializes in small business and commercial real estate lending, is charging higher interest and demanding better credit and bigger down payments, said President James Beckwith. A key reason: It’s harder in a down market to judge the value of a borrower’s collateral.”
“‘There’s a degree of uncertainty,’ he said.”
“Michael McGee, owner of Winchester McGee Real Estate & Loans in Rancho Cordova, said he’s having severe problems obtaining financing for homebuyers who can’t make down payments of at least 10 percent. Loan guarantee programs such as the Federal Housing Administration’s are helpful but only go so far, he said. He’s troubled that down payment assistance programs, like the one pioneered by Sacramento’s Nehemiah Corp. of America, are set to expire Wednesday by federal law.”
The Press Democrat. “The FHA said it has become concerned some borrowers were providing misleading financial information about those sales with the intention to ‘buy and bail.’ In response, the FHA stopped allowing prospective buyers to use the proposed rental income from the soon-to-be-vacated house unless: The buyer is being transferred by a current employer or is relocating with a new employer, or if the buyer has a loan-to-value ratio of 75 percent or less.”
“‘Buy and bail’ is when a homeowner purchases a more affordable home than the one they live in with the intention of defaulting on the first home. ‘They should have closed this loophole two quarters ago,’ Realtor Timothy Brown in Santa Rosa said. ‘With all of the other lending issues, the market tightened up before the government stepped in. This is the one place where they could have prevented additional foreclosures, but they are just getting around to it now,’ Mr. Brown said.”
“After months of struggling to keep his doors open and his business going, Ed Ratliff of Investors Trust Mortgage is taking a break. Losing tens of thousands of dollars a month for the past several months, Mr. Ratliff said he couldn’t go on in the current market and expect to survive.”
“‘I’m not doing any more business,’ Mr. Ratliff said. ‘I am doing fine, but if I stayed in business I wouldn’t be. I think that it will be at least two years before the market comes back.’”
“Several people from other mortgage lending companies that closed their doors ended up working for Investors Trust. Mr. Ratliff had to tell them he too was shutting down operations. ‘I found out why they closed their doors,’ he said. ‘Nobody is making any money right now.’”
The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “Yolanda Navarro hates checking the mailbox. She and her husband Lauro don’t know when they’ll get a foreclosure notice, but they know it’s coming. Their dream home — a five-bedroom house Lauro spent two years building after his regular workday and on weekends — has turned into a nightmare.”
“The house on rural Lewis Road was Lauro’s dream. A construction worker, he had the skills to build his own home. He only needed the money. But to secure a construction loan, a contractor was required to supervise the project so the couple hired the father of the mortgage broker and gave him control of the money. Disputes arose. Materials ran short. Lauro couldn’t get the cash to pay the workers he hired.”
“With the house three-quarters done, the couple had to take out a second loan, and borrow against a house on Second Street in Watsonville that Yolanda had inherited from her mother.”
“He finished the home in July 2007, but four months later, the bank still had not converted the 10 percent, interest-only construction loan to the cheaper mortgage the Navarros said they were promised.”
“Adding to their difficulties, Lauro was laid off as construction slowed. Yolanda developed a repetitive stress injury and had to leave her job at a Watsonville food processor. The couple lost the Second Street home to foreclosure.”
“The Navarros estimate their monthly mortgage payment on the Lewis Road house would be about $3,500, an amount they could cover with the help of their grown children. The construction loans, however, cost $5,000 a month. Facing loss of the house, the couple decided to stop making payments. Today, they owe $750,000 on a house that was recently appraised for $575,000, and since neither is working, they have little hope of securing a mortgage.”
“But the Navarros have been through hard times before. When Green Giant shuttered its Watsonville plant in the early 1990s, they both lost jobs. They went on to help organize a workers’ group that did everything from picketing local Green Giant subsidiaries to establishing a food pantry.”
“The Navarros envision something similar growing out of their current effort. At the very least, troubled homeowners can pool their knowledge and avoid mistakes, they said. ‘Our hope is to encourage people to be more active,’ Yolanda said. ‘We need to push this big wheel together.’”
Golly, when my mom was a divorced mother of three she rented us a small 2 bedroom duplex.
I get so sick of the “single mom” sob stories. You bet it’s tough, but society doesn’t owe you a house.
You sound like MY mom!
Listen to this. The house voted down the bail out and there are so many people are saying that you shouldn’t rip out your nose to spite your face. well, I think it’s more like : you shouldn’t rip out your a-hole to spite yourself. and that will hurt like hell too. lol. Well that’s what I think of the Wall street people. But I agree. People who opposes this bail out plan are the same people asking for help with the mortgage that they shouldn’t have taken out either. This country is becoming a country of whiners- darn I agree with Phil Gram. Weird.
I think it’s more like : you shouldn’t rip out your a-hole to spite yourself.
Huh? That’s a scary (and perplexing) image . . .
No. Most of the people who oppose the bail out plan just think that it will either not do anything or actually make the problem worse. But sorry that you lost a bunch of money in the stock market or whatever.
I had the same feeling. I’m glad the bill failed, but I’m disturbed that the anti-bailout logic is “Don’t help Wall Street, help us deadbeats on Main Street.”
Also, the bailout just won’t work. It’s predicated on the belief that eventually house prices will rise again and things will work out. House prices will NEVER rise again to those levels, relative to income, in our lifetimes.
Yeah, and when are people gonna start holing that ex-husband thingie responsible for his own kids? Reporters never seem to aks about that.
Who says they’re not paying? There is no accountability for child support on the receivers side-but plenty of accountability on the payers side. DA’s love to go after “deadbeat dads” but no one cares what the the other parent spends the money on. I still buy my kids clothes, school supplies, food and pay my daughters college tuition while the ex goes on trips to Hawaii and cruises to Mexico, but can’t seem to come up with anything “for the kids”. How about holding them responsible? Reporters really don’t want to ask THAT question…….
Maybe Ms. Osorio ( a banking “professional” that should have known better) shouldn’t have taken out such a risky loan, and then serviced so poorly, eh?
My coworker thinks otherwise. Her ex owes her 10s of thousands of dollars in back child support, so he went to court and said “This is a burden”, so the court just absolved him of it. Well, that’s a burden to the mom and the kid, duh! I don’t know why guys complain about supporting their own families. I guess the guys who tend to have that view of life are also more likely to get divorced.
My main point, however, is that reporters always talk about single moms as if they were the only person in the story who are/should be contributing to the household income. I always wonder where the ex is.
Well, I don’t know what state that is- (if it really happened that way-that sounds awfully fishy to me-unless he’s out of a job you never get absolved of child support- nor should you be) it doesn’t work that here in Cali. Orange County filed a credit report on me and attached my wages when my ex claimed I was behind on my payments,(i wasn’t) never bothering to even call me and find out if it was true or not. I didn’t know until I got a notice from my credit card company stating my interest rate was going to 24% because I was now a credit risk. $5000.00 for a lawyer and a court appearance and I got my 840 credit rating back (and my visitation increased and her child support was reduced because I had been paying for half of the kids insurance through her work while I carried them fully on my works insurance as well)-That was 5000 dollars that my kids didn’t get simply because she had to be a vindictive woman. Games like that are why guys complain about supporting their families. The courts assume you’re a deadbeat and go after you with both barrels. Nothing happend to her, though for her false report- she was just another “single mom” victim. I’m sure there is a father (or multiple fathers) out there making his payments to the “single mom” and her brood in this story as well. That doesn’t make for as good a story as the poor, pitiful mom and her fatherless kids out on the street, though.
And when *my* mom became a divorced mother of two, she rented out every frigging room in our 1970s-era McMansion to pay the mortgage and a better education than she was able to receive growing up on an Israeli kibbutz in the early 1950s.
When I came back for summer vacation in college, I slept on the living room couch: even my bedroom had been rented out to a visiting scholar (who I recently had a chance to spend a week with in Switzerland where his family now lives!) Never ate out once that I can remember. Holiday gifts were new underwear and socks.
Needless to say, she owns two homes (one of which is fully paid off, the other is nearly paid off), and her kids make $350K combined thanks to opportunities from that education she made sure we got.
Yay for smart moms.
Sven Arndt all that in my opinion, if he couldn’t see this coming…
=======================================================
“Like dominoes, a slew of major institutions have fallen and fallen hard as the ripple effects of mortgage loan defaults, home foreclosures and tightened credit standards continue to work their way through the U.S. financial system. These events bear sobering testimony to just how broad and deep the nation’s economic crisis has become.”
“‘I don’t think anyone would have been willing to predict it,’ said Sven W. Arndt, a professor of economics at Claremont McKenna College.”
guess you have to be an economics professor to be that clueless … or does he mean that saying such things in public is not a good idea if you want to keep your well-paid job?
Claremont McKenna College is not some dullard community college either, this professor notwithstanding.
Hey - whatever happened to those Pomona professors, the couple, who wrote that paper and were quoted in interviews saying that there was no housing bubble?
Remember that? Was it Pomona?
This could have been around mid-2006, IIRC.
Their point of view was totally slanted because they had to justify their home purchase.
if they keep saying ‘there is no housing bubble’ long enough they will be right
Actually, they’ve been quoted again not too long ago saying “No one could have known, no one could have seen it coming” …
Same excuse as the rest.
Gee, if no one “could” have known that there WAS a housing bubble, then that means no one could have known that there WASN’T one either, which makes their premise entirely stupid.
Big V,
That was just too much common sense.
Remember - there is a huge difference between being able to predict it and being willing to predict it.
This person is discretely stating people knew - just didn’t want to pull away the punch bowl.
They could have bought a crystal ball @ Wal*Mart, but no…
Much like our cheerleader in chief, you don’t get to the top unless you lie real good.
This guy’s father should have pulled out sooner.
“‘I don’t think anyone would have been willing to predict it,’ said Sven W. Arndt, a professor of economics at Claremont McKenna College.”
Another dope posing as an “expert” and likely teaching his students total crap.
My History teacher in high school tried to sing the praises of credit cards to the class. I argued with him for 1/2 of the class session. He wouldn’t give up, but at least my class mates heard the other side of the story.
Read what he is saying: “Willing to say it’. He may have predicted it privately.
Houstonstan - you are completely right. I believe many economists were capable of predicting it.
However they all worked for “Real Estate Centers” at colleges and universities were are funded by developers and agents. If the economist goes out and says housing is horrible, that economist will no longer have a job. He will be replaced by another economist who will say what he is told to say.
“hired the father of his mortgage broker and gave him control of the money”
Nope, no problems there! I see a direct connection between what occured on “rural Lewis Road” leading STRAIGHT to the White House! I mean, isn’t it obvious?
Yes: No, 205:228
This is historic!
Was it your doing, satan????
nah.. just democracy working.. finally
Looks like the hedge fund guys are soon going to join the investment bank guys.
I am so stoked!!!
YEssss!!!!
Eat $hit and die, you “too big to fail” tardlings
I’m cheering with ya. I know one of these turds. He’s a sort of acquaintance of the family. He’s a drunk and a miserable person who leave his wife and kid home at night while he goes on a bender in some sh*thole bar, pisses himself and blacks out. He has a fundamental contempt for his fellow man and doesn’t care what misery his hedge fund wreaks on others.
I’m just cheering because I want to see the whole rotten stinking edifice crumble.
Wall Street is just like Hollywood: an overvalued, navel-gazing parasite with so much potential, yet it rarely puts out anything of value…an industry that depends on the faith and aspirations of real people but thinks it is better than they are because it is suspended from a balloon of hot air blown off by super-heated egos.
I want there to be a big reassessment by politicians, businessmen, and J6P alike about how we need to live within our means, and invest in taking care of ourselves, not in other countries or “labor markets”.
I want to see crooks reap what they sow, and an antidote to moral hazard.
I want the younger generation to elect their own politicians and have the chance to spend their earnings and tax money on their own priorities.
My grandad and dad fought in two wars for my freedom, and I’m willing to take it in the shorts so that my kids can have a chance at freedom too.
That kind of post could get you elected to office methinks, nosingleone, if that were your calling. First-rate blend of passionate patriotism, Kennedyesque sacrifices, and common sense.
But but but… in the meantime, it is 5:20 p.m. PST, and I don’t really know where my dollars are going tonight. I have a feeling they might be back harmed by the morning, and when they do return, they may be bruised and sullied. And some of them may be missing.
did he right a check ?
public skool education with your righting?
Awesome.
I don’t know if it’s the right choice even, but democracy survived another day.
Of course, the Fed just pumped a tremendous amount of money into the system, but a fraction of what they were looking for today. *sigh* Easy come, easy go.
Some of the articles are a blast. It’s clear that they had the outcome written up before the vote and had to change the article at the last minute.
It was the right choice for today - that’s for sure.
Congress always tells us that they shouldn’t be to blame for looking like they’re always “doing nothing”… in effect that “democracy takes time.”
They’re right - they should take their time and get it right.
The reason many of the public are now “scared” is because the media keeps talking up the supposedly draconian consequences of the no vote.
Well, as everyone watches the media this evening, remember that the world isn’t going to end tonight.
No, JP Morgan bought Wa Mu. Citibank bougth Wachovia. The market is working, folks.
That’s because the members of the television media are all wealthy and presumably own a lot of stock. Joe6pack isn’t paying attention - he’s working too hard at his crap job and has no savings anyway, let alone stock. I can’t remember the 1987 stock crash, because I was working my ass off as a resident and had no money. Let it all fall down now, especially house prices. The next generation will benefit.
Okay, who were the two reps who didn’t vote?
Only one abstention — a representative from Illinois, Jerry Weller (R).
I have no idea why he fence-sat.
Talk about a lack of leadership. A major financial crisis and yet Jerry Weller, from Chicago one of America’s top financial centers, can’t be bothered to form an opinion.
You weren’t elected to warm that seat, Jerry, you were elected to lead the country!
I just heard about the vote after running some errands. I was on the phone at 8:30 a.m giving senate and congressional aids my feeling on this Wall Street Welfare Relief Program for the second day.
They KNOW my voice now and remind me that they already have my name of their list of citizens against the bailout
I sure Hope and Pray that this sends them and DC some kind of MESSAGE but I am well are of the Fact that We, the People, are dealing with Scallywags, Crooks and Thieves that will no doubt attempt several End Runs to THWART the Will of the America Taxpayers.
Keep the Faith and the pressure ON THEM!
I can’t help thinking Nancy Pelosi really isn’t as stupid as she seems. I think she secretly didn’t want this bill to pass, so she gave that vitriolic, partisian speech prior to the vote in order to deep-six the little bit of bipartisanship that existed. It worked!
Interesting how the republicans are being cast as the bad guys, never mind that the Dem majority couldn’t get 90 of their own members to support the bill. They only needed to “turn” 11 of them and couldn’t!
The Dems are working round the clock to avoid taking blame for whatever happens.
As are the Republicans …
Bill -
My take was that *no one* in Congress actually wanted a vote on this bill, with the exception of Bush, Paulson, and high net worth contributors. I have a feeling there were more than a few relieved representatives when it essentially got sent back to committee last Thursday.
Left and right wing voters hated this bill. In normal times, it would have never made it out of committee, let alone to a full vote.
I think the Republican as “devil” thing will wear off soon. I’m guessing that that most reps voting against were worried about their very angry constituents. Everyone is looking for someone to blame lest a year from now the voters wants their hide for not voting for it.
Peloski was probably also trying to set up a future defense of her actions (this is Bush’s fault!!). I highly doubt that it swayed any of the Repubs, unless it was a reminder of how crappy Bush had treated them under his tenure. Why in the world they feel any pressure whatso ever from an unpopular lame duck administration I’ll never know.
I was watching NBC Nightly News (ugh, but informative). Their political analyst did an interesting breakdown. Those who voted for it, weren’t up for re-election. Those who didn’t vote for it, were. Hmmm. Will of the people works, but only at election time.
Will of the people works, but only at election time.
Not always. The immigration bill was voted down outside of elections. (right??) However, election time does make the game more fun.
I put a longer post on this in the Bits Bucket, but I don’t think the timing or seemingly random deadlines of this bill was an accident by the Bush administration.
What they were expecting was to push through this bill right before adjournment and election by scaring the crap out of all the representatives. The Dems would play along because they would be saving us from Depression II and the Republicans would be on their “side” in an emergency.
What the Bush administration wasn’t expecting was the rebellion of the House Republicans that delayed the whole shebang. (It was super dumb to have not at least consulted them before going public.) That gave people enough time to get through to their representatives and make it clear that for those who were up for reelection, it was going to be a 1 issue campaign after the vote.
What it boils down to is that Bush put all the representatives in a tight spot (again) and he did it on purpose. I’m sure there are individual senators, etc, who still want (or have rich contributors pressuring them) to save us from Depression II. However, I’m guessing that most rank and file representatives will be just as happy to see him go, regardless of party affiliation.
Excuse me Palmetto, but EVERY representative is up for re-election EVERY two years. There is not one single person who voted who was not running for office this election.
The Senate is another story.
Right. I think the ones who voted for it are the ones with safe seats. That’s why more Dems than Repubs voted for it. Since every representative is being bombarded with messages from constituents who are against the bailout, the only ones who can vote for it are the ones who are quite sure of being reelected. Some bright TV commentator tonight said that another few days of Dow Down 500 and stuff like that may get the constituents scared enough to change their tune. Maybe if there’s no TP at the corner grocery…?
I agree, Pelosi would not make an amateur mistake on such high-stakes legislation.
Therefore the Democrats wanted the bill to fail. Specifically they wanted it to be known the bill failed because Republicans voted against it.
Interesting strategy. I wonder if it will pay off for Barry Obamer and company?
Thank you for your hard work, Mikey. Keep it up! I’m secretly delighted at the outcome of the vote and I know it was because of the blitz of email and phone commentaries from the electorate that really turned it around. Just say NO! to bailouts!
“……They went on to help organize a workers group……The Navarros envision something similar growing out of their current efforts.”
Jeez, just what we need….more “activists”.
Has anyone seen any numbers on how many people are drawing paychecks from “activist groups”, “non-profit organizations”, and similar organizations?
It appears to me that, along with “activists”, the only growth industries the past ten years have been Mortgage Brokers, Real Estate agents, Dog Massage Therapists, Cat Psychiatrists, Feng Shui Interior Designers, Tantric Sex Therapists…….have I missed anyone?
Yeah, pirate stores and this one from the Sac Bee article:
‘Bertram Chatham, owner of a Citrus Heights Halloween store, says he’s just as good a businessman today as he was a year ago.’
‘So when Wells Fargo & Co. slashed his available line of credit this summer from $26,000 to $10,000, he knew he’d gotten snared by the nation’s credit crunch. The reduced financing prodded him to scale back his operation this fall, at a cost to the economy of about 30 jobs.’
30 jobs at a halloween shop?
You know, I have to question the need for businesses that cannot exist except as a phantom entity running on the fumes of borrowed money. How different is that from gambling on anything else like houses or stocks?
Halloween shops are a good example. Why can’t someone who wants to take a bet on such an enterprise do it with their own capital? How much does an inventory of rubber masks cost, anyway?
Those 30 jobs must count the mold-makers and sewing machine operators that supply the shop.
And how long are those 30 people employed? Probably about 2 months and I’ll betcha none of them work full time. Most probably average 10 to 15 hours a week.
That’s just not true. Some will find satisfying employment in November, at the Pilgrim outfit shop.
LOL, SFC!
“Those 30 jobs must count the mold-makers and sewing machine operators that supply the shop.”
Don’t forget the dentist ’cause you ate that candy. See how easy it is to include multiples to your figures; it’s just like magic. Bankers have been lending the same dollar so many times that they’ve lost track of where it is actually deposited.
Purchasing decisions in August and September. Inventory starts coming in Oct. 1. Most is 30-day terms, some is COD or pre-pay. Also you have up-front operating expenses - rent, advertising, hiring and training clerks. Full-price sales peak around Oct. 25-26, continue through Oct. 31, then you clear inventory. Only way to make money is to handle a ton of volume in critical few weeks. You need operating capital to keep everything moving.
I used to think you had to have money to start a business.
Of course!
30 jobs at a Halloween shop is just another example of the “bubble rider” economy we’ve had in California for nearly a decade now.
It will be a sign of a “return to normal” here when the owner/propietors at such places are the only employees.
sf jack,
That’s what has replaced “salesmanship” in this country. It started in the mid-90’s when Sprint or whoever would pay fresh out of college girls 30k a year to show how their cell phone works to all of their friends.
Basically just tapping into everyone’s circle of friends. It’s spread to everything like a bad virus. My SIL’s and I play in a local band and the tavern owners are perfectly willing to just mooch off the friends and relatives to show up. Well how long is the “friends and family” approach going to work?
Hell, we KNOW everyone that ‘can’ will be there but for cryin’ out loud man, you gotta’ advertise and promote on our behalf a little too! Just like Starbucks only hires hipsters so all ‘their’ incredibly ‘hip’ friends will hang around and spend money. Pathetic.
I just heard a funny story on the news about a Dutch small town coffeeshop that reported 20 million euros in yearly turnover to the tax office.
Everyone knows these guys make loads of money, but this was suspiciously high. Normally the tax office just sends a tax estimate (of course they can deduct all kinds of funny expenses) but this time they went a bit further than usual and talked to the police. Police started posting and counting customers for some time (up to recently that would have been illegal in Netherlands, that was what the news item was actually about). Turns out the turnover was from a huge pot plantation (which is illegal) and not from the coffeeshop (which is legal in Netherlands). The coffeeshop only existed for money laundering.
In my relatively small town probably hundreds of expensive homes and other buildings (hotels etc.) are owned by criminals involved in this kind of activities; most of these properties are registered on names of obscure companies. Officials suspect they are causing strong distortions in RE prices, because real estate is one of the few easy ways for money laundering in Netherlands.
Things will get ugly when the criminals want to cash out before the bubble collapes (like what happened in Amsterdam the last years, lots of high profile drive-by shootings).
I guess halloween shops are a growth market now that the economy is going south
(like what happened in Amsterdam the last years, lots of high profile drive-by shootings).
I though that kind of stuff only happened in gun crazy USA!
Sounds like Vancouver’s saga… illegal grow ops feeding elevated real estate prices through crooked real estate agents who didn’t have to report (until recently) suspicious cash transactions… That and mainland Chinese ex-bankers who steal millions and settle here because they won’t be extradited back to China because they might get executed… all of this has inflated Vancouver’s real estate prices to the stratosphere… Things are “different” here…
I’m dating myself, but this reminds me of an old SNL skit of–I think it was Bill Murray who worked in a mall at the Scotch Tape Boutique. HAA!!
And file this under “More Bad Business Ideas”
Fox10 (Phoenix) this morning did a “news piece” on a new video-yourself kiosk in the Scottsdale Fashion Square. $20 a pop for a 4-minute video of yourself as a budding superstar singer, model, comedian . . . I wonder what MBA rolled this venture out?
http://mystudio.net
[MyStudio is a proprietary, state-of-the-art portable green screen recording studio designed to fit within a 10' x 10' kiosk space in shopping malls and other high traffic pedestrian areas.]
LOL - they have one of those at the Topanga Mall!
I’ve never seen anyone actually use it, though.
Hi speedingpullet,
I live 2 blocks from the mall.I live in my overpriced rental townhouse which keeps on raising my rent but has one month off for new tenants plus cheaper rent .I am so unhappy with them right now but not finding alot better out there. At which mall is this the Promanade or the newly redone one? Maybe it is near the new Neimans that the masses needed out here in the Valley.
RE: 30 jobs at a halloween shop?
2nd biggest consumer holiday now, after XMas.
Huge here in the Northeast…Sleepy Hollow and all that good stuff.
Salem “The Witch City” MA has a month long celebration that pumps thousands into the local economy.
However, I have found it rather bizarre and offensive that a big party wing-ding has evolved from the history of “the Salem Witch trials” which resulted in the deaths 19 innocent people.
Most were hung. One was crushed to death.
But any reason to blow money. For we are Wal-Mart Nation.
I have a friend who used to be a city council aide. We recently had a chat, and he recalled his days of dealing with activists in some of the other council offices
To a man and woman, every one of the activists was a very ineffective aide. Why? Because being a city council aide is mostly about mundane constituent service things like fixing the potholes in this neighborhood or installing sidewalks in that one.
Not the sort of thing that appeals to people who are on some sort of social change mission. So, most of them do the aide thing in a half-arsed manner. That is, until they find something that has more of an activist cachet to it.
IMO, activist groups like ACORN are a source of money laundering for lib politicians. Congress appropriates money for ACORN activities and a significant portion of that dough ends up as contributions to the politicians’ campaign fund.
Not to say the other side doesn’t have their laundering sources as well. America has the best Congress money can buy.
at least the acorns got knocked out of the bail bill-hope they stay in the news cycle- big time fraudsters registering felons etc…..
You missed dog biscuit bakeries and scented candle shops! hehehehehehe
Gulf Stream: my daughter’s a Feng Shui Designer. Back off!
Professor Bear had it right a couple of days ago. This is the decoupling of the little guy Republicans and the big money Republicans. I don’t feel qualified to give an opinion as to what are the immediate consequences we could expect (besides a Wall Street meltdown), but I do know that Bush managed to destroy his country’s military might, his country’s economic wherewithall (sp?), and his party’s relevance. Wow. And he did it in just 8 years…He is a genius of destruction. I’m still flabbergasted, mesmerized, stunned. Thoughts, please.
“but I do know that Bush managed to destroy his country’s military might, his country’s economic wherewithall (sp?), and his party’s relevance. Wow. And he did it in just 8 years…He is a genius of destruction.”
Please explain how he destroyed our military might. Please explain how “Bush” destroyed the economy. Please explain how he single handedly detroyed the Repub’s relevancy. You can’t and you won’t because you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Earth to mobin…where you been the past 8 years? It would take almost that long to explain Shrub’s bungling and its consequences (yeah, we all know he had some help).
Incompetence met it’s match.
People who constantly quote others have nothing to say themselves.
I tend to learn from others, what’s your excuse?
I came here to learn about the “housing market” years ago. I’ve learned a lot about it. No excuses needed.
This conversation is going nowhere.
I totally agree with you. Don’t let it go to your head.
Mobin, I’ve never even seen your name before, I think, yesterday? You’ve really been here ‘years’? Really?
Because you have hidden your wisdom passing well, if so.
Oly,
Sorry if I fail to post 10+ times a day, or for some 30+. I actually used to post (just a little) years ago. Maybe you can investigate? I’m really here for the knowledge, not to be in the club. It’s pretty evident that I wouldn’t be allowed in. I have been reading ever since and posting once in a long while, go ahead check on it.
Ruined. As in wasted. As in destroyed. With luck we’ll be able to withdraw and rebuild. Ask Gen MacArthur if land wars in Asia are a good idea. Ask Crassus, Trajan and Julian how that Mesopotamia thing worked out. Ask Alexander if he feels that, all things considered, staying in Babylon was good for his health.
“Ruined. As in wasted. As in destroyed. With luck we’ll be able to withdraw and rebuild. Ask Gen MacArthur if land wars in Asia are a good idea. Ask Crassus, Trajan and Julian how that Mesopotamia thing worked out. Ask Alexander if he feels that, all things considered, staying in Babylon was good for his health.”
You win.
JR: Alexander the Great invaded the area north of Babylon to defeat Darius at the Battle of Gaugamela in 331 BC. From there Alexander went on to conquer Persia and western India. His conquests served to protect Greek society, its ideals and philosophy and extend them to the Persian Empire. Alexander the Great was a fearless fighter and a brilliant general but did not sufficiently reflect on his place in history - in reality he did not accept his own mortality.
The United States of America has been thrust on the world stage - from its founding ideals we hold these truths to be self-evident, its epic Civil War all men are created equal its victory in the First and Second World Wars to its post-war prosperity which now is put into question. The United States of America has been given its position to advance God’s will.
I see in the defeat of the Bailout Bill a determination to face reality rather than run from it - a victory of principle over comfort. I completely believe the warnings of Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke that the American financial system is threatened to its core and I believe that America is about to be tested.
God bless America!
No seriously… indulge him. I’m all ears.
Goliath couldn’t figure out that weapons of mass overkill were defenseless against an enemy with no name, face or identifying labels, named David.
Can we start with “weapons of mass destruction” and “Trickle down economics”?
Ok I’ll play. Who are the dummy’s then, If one guy can trick everyone into having us play war in two different countries, sinking our whole economy and making repubs languish?
Bush is so dumb, yet so smart? I don’t get it. My point was to show me how Bush did it. You won’t find the answer because the cast of characters is to big. So big, it covers both sides just like it always has.
Um, the President has more power than anyone else in the world. People who voted for him are stupid too, but other than that, it was pretty much him and his administration (i.e., good ol’ boys).
Mobin_kali,
As I’ve always said, I’m probably the last guy to rush to Bush’s defense but I’m really tired and feel like I’m coming down with the flu so the last thing I needed to hear about today was… some guff about WMD’s.. of all things?
That’s why there was always such a rush to politicize the bubble so that when-this-day finally arrived.., the blame would already be in place! I’m not saying Bush is without his faults to say the least but the finger pointing isn’t helping. At all. If I thought for a minute dropping this on his doorstep would restore confidence, make the inventory disappear and put the DOW back at 14k I’d gladly do it in heart beat.
But it won’t. Oh and it’s not accurate.
Mobin_kali, this is what I meant, and I apologize if my opinion seemed too extreme to you.
1. He destroyed the power of the military by undermining the basis of its strength, namely its enormous prestige and the idea many people had that it would only be used for a good reason, as in WWII (I thought we had learned the lessons of Vietnam, I was wrong). Look at them now, if you still can, mired in a place where they went in for the wrong reasons, bribing terrorists so that they can claim a small victory that will last until the election. It pains me beyond words, and I’m sure it pains the many honorable men and women who went into the army with different ideals. He has also undermined the power of the military by allowing the American economy to be crippled under his watch by the credit bubble. The American military might has always been understood to be backed by a scarily efficient economy, and that was no small part of the respect that it inspired. Have you noticed how uppity Chavez has been lately? Wait a little while, you haven’t seen the half of it, and it will also be Bush’s fault.
2. How can there be any doubt that he destroyed the economy. Whatever bad regulation Clinton signed, the sucker went down under his watch, and not 8 months but 8 YEARS into his administration. Look at the national debt, look at national spending. The only good thing they had going was the credit bubble that drugged people into thinking they were OK, and that’s why they let it go on for so long. Nuff said.
3. As far as his party, I’m sure it will never be the same. McCain is imploding as we speak. He can no longer speak both to bankers and to values voters in small time America. He has to take his pick, and all he can do is flail his arms around. He is toast.
cassiopeia ,
I don’t think your opinion is to exteme, no need to apologize. I just get upset when people think that he, all on his own, changed the face of the US the last 8 years. If so, we the people of the US have got to be the dumbest couple of generations ever. Maybe it’s easier for some to point the finger at one person. Any acting official in office on either side is to blame…..period. Yes, Bush and his cronies are to be blamed most, but give the people of the US some credit. Maybe it’s me, I just can’t believe we the people would have left it up to him as the only fault.
I’m waiting to see what Chavez is up to, that guy is just as crazy as Bush.
My apologies if I came off wrong to you, I hope you understand where I’m coming from.
Mobin, I agree with you. I am no Bush fan, but people here give him too much power. The economy was a long time in the wrecking and there is a lot of blame to go around. To blame it all on him is close minded partisanship.
Sorry guys, I’m just really, really tired of everything and not in the mood for it today, besides Trickle Down was a Regan thing from the 80’s but…
This is the day I’ve been dreading ( like many here ) since at least 2003, having this swirl down to a vote on the House floor for a bailout when there were countless off-ramps along the way is just plain depressing.
With billions and billions of dollars fleeced from House ATM’s across the land I think it’s frankly a little silly to point to anyone other than ourselves.
G’s, Mobin_kali, you must be new to this blog. Bush destroyed our military might by overextending us in an unjustified war and giving us a bad rep (torture, criminals as soldiers, lame-ass reconstruction efforts) while he was at it. He destroyed the economy through deregulation, defunding of regulatory agencies, and trickle-down economic theory. He destroyed Republicans for at least a decade by presiding as the most secretive, abusive, and inept President ever. Any Repub in office today looks like a goon for being on Bush’s side.
BigV,
Thanks for the response. I can agree with a lot of what you said. As far as being new here, Oly is working on that.
ohhhh…there’s plenty of blame in this game.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs
not to be partisan…just trying to illustrate a point.
there is a pox on both these houses.
fortunately for Shrub most of the West copied the brilliant USA business model and they are now starting to reap the same big rewards. Our stock market closed down nearly 9% this afternoon, a little more down than the US; tomorrow will be another bloody day for sure.
So no name calling, they (the politicians and world leaders) were all in it together.
I think the vote was rigged. I think they are allowing the market to deflate so their friends can buy at firesale prices. Think of the tremendous upswing that is baked into the cake when some sort of bail out happens. Then they make one last sell ticket and head for the hills.
On another note, Ben made a statement regarding the posts as of late not being related to housing. I feel guilty of this- but where I am the prices are still holding. The discussion of other areas of the economy keep me poised and ready for whatever may happen- and are hints as to what/where we are heading & thus feel they are relevant (at least to me). Thank you Ben for keeping me sane over the last few years. I would have gone postal by now if I didn’t KNOW that there are other like minded people out there thinking WTF?
I hear you shizo.
If I had anything of interest to say about the Westside L.A housing situation, believe me, I’d be crowing it from the rooftops.
Sadly, the same 200-odd houses get recycled over and over again on the MLS, trapping the unwary and newcomers into thinking that something’s happening, when really it’s the same 200+ houses coming on and off the MLS perpetually.
None of them get sold, and the prices stay pretty much the same.
The L.A market is about as exciting as watching paint dry.
So, I keep my spirits up by posting bollock$ here. Sorry to all
An inverse Midas.
OT: I just had a countrywide rep come buy my house at lunch (I’m renting it) looking for the owner. I stated that I was a tenant and she said she’d try to find the owner. How can I find out if this place is going into NOD? If so how long usually can a renter dwell?
Your county recorder’s office may have that information. Why don’t you give them a call?
You might also take a gander at the classification of the house. If it’s classified as residential owner occupied and it’s actually being rented, your landlord is committing mortgage and property tax fraud.
I did a google search on the address and it showed up as a notice of trustee sale. Not a reliable way, but it worked that one time.
BTW: Have you every heard of any lawmaker trying to protect these True Victims of the housing bubble (people paying rent to flipper landlords in default)? Of course not.
Find out if you are in a judicial or nonjudicial foreclosure state. A judicial foreclosure state requires a court action. Often a tenant in a judicial foreclosure state also receives notice of the foreclosure. Connecticut is a judicial foreclosure state so I know less about what happens in a nonjudicial foreclosure state but it is my understanding that it is quicker.
I’d suggest looking at your local legal services website or the state bar association for a pamphlet about foreclosures/evictions. Also your state department of banking may have some info for homeowners about foreclosure that a renter would also find helpful.
Good luck.
You can check trulia.com, too. Zoom into your neighborhood on the map. I’m not sure how current it is, but it usually shows houses that are process of foreclosure.
Good Luck!!
And don’t forget that banks are taking a long time to foreclose these days, so if you’re LL isn’t paying the mortgage, then you should consider withholding rent while you look for another place to live.
Ummm…
If the lender is knocking on the door looking for the owner, you already know two things:
1. The loan docs show the house as owner-occupied. It’s not, that’s fraud, and the lender now knows it.
2. The owner hasn’t made a payment in a long, long time. Lenders don’t send an actual real person to knock on the door at the first missed payment.
You need to familiarize yourself with the foreclosure laws in your state, and figure out who that affects you. And I’d start looking for a new place.
The clock is ticking.
–Shannon
Dow Jones 30 closed 748 lower.
S&P closed 105 lower.
We are making history..
The Plunge
ProtectionPromotion Team was busy today.Who let the Dowgs out?
LOL!!
the Dowgs of another Wall Street fall, er autumn…
Do they make bumper stickers that read “I (heart) SKF”?
it didn’t move nearly as much as i would have expected with today’s destruction
We need new captains of the ship.
And more women and men at the oars.
And some people need to learn to swim.
Dow Jones 30 closed 777 lower… my bad
Pulling the handle and getting a 777 pays off handsomely @ a slot machine in Vegas, but rolling a negative 777 on Wall Street ain’t so lucky, ducky.
and look at the futures… *S*
well on its way to the predicted -30% crash when the proposal would not be accepted this weekend.
By the time they are voting the -30% could be a done deal, so why vote
Now we get to see if I was right when I decided not to sell the apartments.
Currently running 0% vacancy rate. Wonder if this will hold.
I’ll take positive cash flow over holding depreciating dollars any day.
Do you have positive DF, smLL? If your flow is positive (and not on a neg-am loan), then why sell them? It is too late to reap bubble pricing now.
DF?
Owned free and clear, so no cash flow problems. But I got some tempting offers about a year ago, and was pretty sure it was the top for multi-family. The choice was to cash out at the top and pay cap gains, or hold on and take the income. The decision was made about one year ago.
The income is far from free, as labor, investment, and the usual taxes and expenses are required to maintain the property. Also there is ongoing risk that insurance cannot cover, such as vacancies. If I can keep them full or mostly so, I’m fine, but still need to deal with clogged garbage disposals, lost keys, nutty tenants, contractors, etc. The big risk is that lots of new condos come on the rental market at prices below my rents. I’m betting that won’t happen as my rents are below the cost of servicing a condo, even if the condos take a 50% haircut.
Whether or not it turns out to be a good decision also depends on the arbitrage between the cap gains rate on a sale vs. the income tax after expenses vs. what else could I have done with the cash if I sold. Basis was low, so cap gains would have been huge. Another option would have been to trade up to commercial like drug stores or something, but those were very inflated and not cash flowing well at the leverage rate I would have needed to use.
Like I said, we’ll see.
I meant to say CF. I think I’m starting to use too many acronyms.
Poor saps who went long today thinking the passing of the bailout was going through. All a plan to bleed suckers. See you at 8k
I’m going long on the idea that the world somehow will not end. This is just impetus for real reform and mea culpas.
Right, and we just ‘may’ see 8K. Hell, ( I’ve been there before ) The fear mongering over “children and dogs… living together!” didn’t work.
Reminds of a bully that threatened to take my lunch money on a daily basis. After a week of dread I finally told the clown to go for it! At that point a sound roughing up was preferable to constant fear. So… let’ get get it over with. You can’t rule by intimidation forever.
I went long ING, a bit too early, it too got hammered and it is the strongest bank out there getting millions of new accounts from the bad US banks.
long ING, really?
Dutch ING is on its way back to the EUR 8 low from some years ago, I’m pretty sure about that; they broke all support levels over the last days. Still about 45% downside from current levels. Maybe a very short trade is profitable after the nosedive of the last days, but that’s about it.
Beware, ING are not a bank but a hedgefund pretending to be a bank … they have 31 billion invested in US mortgages (mostly Alt-A if I remember correctly) and say they have close to zero financial exposure. How believable is that? And maybe they look relatively strong now compared to US banks, but once the Dutch housing bubble pops things will look very different.
NOT TRUE. ING signed up over 700,000 new accounts last quarter alone. They run a tight ship and have very little exposure. They were 20x more difficult to get a loan from in 2005 then Countrywide, I know, i used both. They are a holding co, not a hedge–huge difference. They are a buy at this level with a sweet dividend, long term they will come out very strong, they are the Chase of Europe. Other banks have gone begging to them for a bailout and they are playing it safe. I am holding and adding at this level with my 401k funds. Safest bet i know of, right now beside cash (I am 90% in now).
They run a tight ship and have very little exposure. They were 20x more difficult to get a loan from in 2005 then Countrywide, I know, i used both.
Gotta agree with that. Back at the peak of the market in 2005 or 2006 I plugged the local median income ($60K) into the ING loan calculator. It spit out that such a buyer was qualified for a very standard 3x gross income loan.
This was a period where a $45K income qualified people for $450K condos with some lenders.
On the other hand ING could learn a bit about customer service, after hanging up the phone on me when I called to ask why they closed my account…that’s another story…
ING the Chase of Europe, LOL! You definitely don’t know what you are talking about.
P.S.: I’m talking about the Dutch parent company, maybe the US operation runs a tight ship but I guess that won’t help them if the parents are going in the wrong direction.
6.5-8x income loans is still a reality over here.
I’m keeping my eye on ING, too. I have some savings with them.
I got an email recently from their “CEO of savings.” It was kind of interesting. The email was saying that next year is going to be tough for everyone, and encouraged customers to watch their spending, cut out unnecessary expenses, and save.
ING is a mortgage bank.
…a bit of an old hat by now but I guess we’ll get more and more of these:
‘Car sleepers - the new US homeless’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7585696.stm
Wish I had done last week what I was going to do.
http://forum.thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.php?topic=229.0
cvca,
You’re not alone by any means. Virtually all of the feedback I had going in to the weekend was that, however unpopular, it was likely to be cattle-prodded through and none of us had to like it?
It may still get passed, I get the feeling this thing is like a vampire, you can never kill it….all they have to do is flip 11 votes….
I can’t believe the arrogance and sense of entitlement on CNBC, they’re even ridiculing Republican advisers who opposed the bailout as being “twenty-something liberal arts majors”. Oh, and I checked with my lender, I can still get a 6.6% loan, no points, on my building, because, guess what: I haven’t mortgaged the thing to the hilt and there’s plenty of equity there, and I have good credit. Why don’t these crybabies on CNBC mention this while they’re whining about how “no one” can get a loan.
We have friends with small 3 kids, and I was over at their house today and we were talking about what’s been going on, and i’d clued them in about a year ago, so they’ve been hep to what’s what, and we got talking about the seriousness of what’s coming and I asked my friend (who’s in tight with the mommy brigade around here) how many people have any idea?, as she’s a most excellent detective, in a ‘just the facts makes you laugh’ style…
She told me that nobody knows nothing.
I’ve been offered 2 loans - one through lending tree and one through countrywide and i don’t have the 20% down. However, I have a combined FICO of 797, so that kinda helped……..:-)
Yuppers. They complain that you have to INCOME and GOOD CREDIT before someone will lend you 3 times your annual salary. It’s a freaking nightmare distaster and such. On Wallstreet.
My daughter isn’t having a problem refinancing her house either.
I get a letter or a call EVERY day. Re-finance, new mortgage, equity loan, credit card, new car. You name it, I get it.
No shoes are dropping in California, but it’s been raining cats and dogs (just missed getting walloped by a Bull Mastiff)
Send some of that rain over here. We could use some.
So the divorced mother of four routinely chose the minimum payment
I counted at least 6 bad choices in that sentence fragment!
LOL! You’re right!
So the credit markets seized up? This would matter to a country that borrows 2 billion a day to keep afloat. Would all of this teeth gnashing and blaming going be because the countries that hold a lot of our debt (China, Japan, Russia and some Gentleman of the Gulf) who threatened the folks in DC to get their house in order. Stop borrowing so much without taking some of that toxic paper off their hands, and inject some of their own paper to buy back that paper?
Could this be the force behind this incredible BS bill? I just feel that we are not getting the complete story. Sort of like, put 700 Bn in a garbage bag and leave it under the bridge or you will never see your market again. Mentioned last week on this blog. Sure seems like there is additional schemes going on behind the scenes, and it wouldn’t surprise me.
Krugman said it best…
OK, we are a banana republic
House votes no. Rex Nutting has the best line: House to Wall Street: Drop Dead. He also correctly places the blame and/or credit with House Republicans. For reasons I’ve already explained, I don’t think the Dem leadership was in a position to craft a bill that would have achieved overwhelming Democratic support, so make or break was whether enough GOPers would sign on. They didn’t.
I assume Pelosi calls a new vote; but if it fails, then what? I guess write a bill that is actually, you know, a good plan, and try to pass it — though politically it might not make sense to try until after the election.
For now, I’m just going to quote myself:
So what we now have is non-functional government in the face of a major crisis, because Congress includes a quorum of crazies and nobody trusts the White House an inch.
As a friend said last night, we’ve become a banana republic with nukes.
O. Henry came up with the term “Banana Republic”, basing it upon Honduras, where he was on the lam from the law in the 1890’s…
Sorry the bill you wanted didn’t pass BR. Care to tell us why you think 90 Dems voted against it?
The bigger puzzle is why so many Dems voted FOR it.
The ones who voted “yes” are in safe seats. The ones who voted “no” are not.
Ditto on the Republican side, as the minority leadership was fully on board.
When your constituents are calling you at 30:1 against, you can only go against them if your job is secure.
–Shannon
Yeah, considering it was a Republican bill and all, promoted by a Republican President. go figure, bill.
br:
Peeve just in. You should not hyphenate words with prefixes, such as “
non-functionalnonfunctional”.I hope you guys all had your seatbelts buckled.
I love roller coaster rides and my seat belt was buckled very tightly.
I hate roller-coaster rides. If there’s going to be wild swooping around and loop-de-loops and screaming, I want to be in charge of and/or causing it, and not just sittin’ there clamped down and unable to run away.
Anyhow, I didn’t need a seat-belt, because I didn’t get on, because I knew how it was going to end…with me barfing.
“Adding to their difficulties, Lauro was laid off as construction slowed. Yolanda developed a repetitive stress injury and had to leave her job at a Watsonville food processor.
Amazing how many people in the work force today develope a ‘repetitive stress’ injury. How many would develope in an arena where they couldn’t get medical leave and pay? I loved the line where the parents are out of work but that the kids could help make the payment if they could get the mortgage ($3500).
Amazing how many people in the work force today develope a ‘repetitive stress’ injury.
They ALWAYS have, but didn’t used to report it or have insurance or have a way to deal with it. I’ve known people with surgery due to work-related carpal tunnel damage, hernias, etc. It happens fast too, just using a computer keyboard at the wrong angle for a couple weeks can do it.
Gotta have some sympathy for line workers–it’s about the worst job on the planet!
Repetitive stress injuries are real. They can disable you for life. And you can thank the Governator for making it impossible to get worker’s comp when you can’t even tie your shoelaces anymore. The reason she had to leave her job was most likely because she couldn’t get worker’s comp, so now she just has to live off of nothing. It’s a bad scene for the worker.
Cut the pity on that workmans comp crap. The amount of fraud and its resultant cost to the employer is enough to send every company running for the outsourcing to India and China booth at every trade show.
Hm. I have a thought: If I donated to a sperm bank, could I sue for repetitive stress injury?
OOOOOOOOhhhhh ssshhhhhiiiiIIIIIIIiiiiiiiiiit.
Care to expand on that thought?
Big V : Is that your “When Harry met Sally moment”?
“With the house three-quarters done, the couple had to take out a second loan, and borrow against a house on Second Street in Watsonville that Yolanda had inherited from her mother.”~~~
Um, he was in construction, she worked in food processing, and they thought they could built a 3/4 of a million, 5 bedroom house? This wihle they already OWNED a house she inherited (and which I guess was mostly to totally paid off, probably). Hm.
Five bedrooms?!! Did the grown kids who could help pay $3500 mortgage live at home?
I think a lot of us better stop thinking/wanting a “dream home” and get realistic. Dream homes are great for dreaming and to motivate us to save up for them down the road, but if we don’t have a boatload of cash, dream homes should stay dreams, I figure. If one has to nearly completely or complete finance a dream home, then it should remain a sweet fantasy when one is lying in one’s bed in one’s modest, less dreamy place of residence.
As far as the bailout: I was glad it failed. Whatever they plan to do, I want to see more comprehensive and careful consideration of what it should be, allowing more economists and “experts” have a chance to weigh in during PUBLIC meetings. I was not convinced this particular bailout made sense. I’m not convinced we should have any bailout at all. Yeah, my 401K statement is gonna look grim, but we’re all gonna suffer in some way before this is done.
Speaking of: The local MIAMI HERALD had an article yesterday on a local woman who was a subprime mortgage specialist and who’s now claiming victimhood –yeah, she’s a VICTIME–as she’s now unemployed and losing her house looks like, even though she made 200k PER ANNUM in the prime years and even boasted of biweekly paychecks of 20K at times. I can say that my heartstrings were not moved…not moved at all.
M.
RE: The local MIAMI HERALD had an article yesterday on a local woman who was a subprime mortgage specialist and who’s now claiming victimhood –yeah, she’s a VICTIME–as she’s now unemployed and losing her house looks like, even though she made 200k PER ANNUM in the prime years and even boasted of biweekly paychecks of 20K at times. I can say that my heartstrings were not moved…not moved at all.
From all I’ve read about the mortgage origination orgy, $200k is pikers stuff. The bi-weekly pay of $20k is more the standard.
Socal proces are coming down no matter what. Cali’s state budgets are going deeper and deeper into debt by the minute. there is only one logical and eventual outcome. On an even more positive note, the bailout (theft) failed!!! The thing that pisses me off the most is the CNBC clowns, et al, are trying to convince the huddled masses that it is good for them to load up the debt from Goldman Sachs and their ilk on top of them. Can we sane bloggers stand the PR onslaught about to come?
The great tragedy of this bailout failing to pass is that now many will wrongly blame the coming economic woes on the Congressional vote, rather than the fundamental reality of a collapsing credit bubble of the Fed’s creation coupled with a serious effort from top economic leaders to deliberately use their MSM bully pulpit to spark a financial panic.
Perhaps that was the real reason BB, HP and GWB all got on TV last week to shout “fire” in a crowded theater, just before telling the world that terrible things would ensue if their bailout measure was rejected.
SoCal prices are already down by “larger than expected” amounts. The question of the century is how much further they go down from here.
Has anyone stopped to consider how big a windfall the bailout would create for firms like Bank of America that swallowed all of Countrywide’s toxic mortgages?
I thought not.
“The Navarros envision something similar growing out of their current effort. At the very least, troubled homeowners can pool their knowledge and avoid mistakes, they said. ‘Our hope is to encourage people to be more active,’ Yolanda said. ‘We need to push this big wheel together.’”
Well, I don’t WANT to push your big wheel ‘together’, Yolanda. I like to hang out with smart and alert people, not yammering easy-meat and evidently always-mistaken idjits. How ’bout you, Yolanda, and your bunch of idjits ‘push the big wheel together’ and I’ll go hang out on the porch of my house. My house that I knew I could afford WHEN I signed the papers.
Yes, that’s what I’ll do. I shall go sit out there and drink some wine and peacefully read some light fiction and ponder whether to grill a steak or else sautee some chicken for dinner? It’s a pressing issue, as this glorious day falls from golden into blue. And that will be MY evening.
Have a good evening, Yolanda McDumdum!
BWAHAHAHAHAHA! (thanks, faster)
“Osorio also hopes the federal government mortgage industry bailout plan will assist people like her, she added. ‘I keep telling myself you are holding yourself above water. Just keep holding on’, she said.”
Keep the hope alive. The more hope FBs have in their dismal future the more incentive they have to hang on and keep up with the mortgage payments. The more dollars they send to the bank the less dollars we taxpayers will have to come up with.
Also, be thankful that the NAR is spending their own money (lol) on ads suggesting to the FBs that the RE market is bottoming out.
Relax and learn to love the NAR. The NAR is our friend.
John Kerry is on O’Reilly right now, railing against the evil Republicans for defeating this (horrible) bill. His solution is for all of us to suck it up, and marry really annoying and probably psycho rich women for money.
I swear to God, the more I follow financial news, the more I follow politics…well, let’s just say you can use the 2nd law of thermodynamics as the A-1 governing law of the universe. Democrats voting to bail out wall street, and railing on Republicans who won’t do so?
I’m having another beer, life sure is interesting. And disordered.
love it!
Is that your own idea or did you see the video about McCain’s plan on how to solve the country’s woes: marry a beer heiress.
Heiress wives? We’ve got our Heinz ketchup and we’ve got our Cindy beer. Can’t get a DUI from ketchup, though.
Can you Blame the public for not wanting to invest in bogus bad non-
performing loan paper . A lot of people just want a safe bank to put their money in . The Stock market has never been a insured account ,so
why would people choose it over the lower risk options .
They came in with this Bill claiming there was a emergency ,and they made the market panic by the way they tried to sell this . Telling people that are trying to get rid of cars that they might not be able to get a car loan is not a way to get them to spend 700 billion .
Also ,I think the public is getting wary of the Cheerleaders who tell them to do something ,like buy real estate ,and they find out they lose in the end . i have never seen a Bill so pushed by the Media ,but still it failed .
I think we are at a critical point in history so a better Bill is needed . I
hope they don’t gum it up with a lot of stuff that again rewards bad behavior .
It would go a long way with me if they would promise that with the next version of the bailout bill:
- they will not buy any paper with any 2nd or 3rd mortgages, under any circumstances.
- they will not buy any paper with any HELOC’s, under any circumstances.
- they will not buy any paper with any condos, under any circumstances.
- they will not buy any paper with mortgages from anyplace in the top 10 in mortgage fraud.
- they will not buy any paper representing any mortgages that are already 90 or more days late.
Of course that would probably take away 90% of what the banks want to shovel over to us.
It would go a long way if they stated exactly how the finaincial firm sna dbanks would pay back the tax payer. This nebulus statement that the president will figure it ou tin 5 years is BS. Stock holders need to take the hit.hey need to do away with dividends and give hte gov stock not warrants that only vest if the stock price increases. They need to have a retroactive windfall profit tax on all management that made over a million dollars a year on banks, investment houses, and rating agencies. Without these provisions this bill should be killed. I also think the bill will not stimulate hte econoomy like they say. Banks will not make subprime loans again even if they are given money. They will probably sit on the money until the ship hits bottom and hten come out wit all of thei rtax payer dollars and buy up all of the regional banks t hat have sunk for pennies on the dollar.
I’m trying to figure something out. Why is the media so hot and bothered to talk with the leaders of the failed coup against our banking system?
I think the public was overwhelmingly against it.
Why aren’t they talking with the opposition?
Why aren’t they talking with the opposition about doing things to aleviate the problems if their is a major credit event and large numbers of bank failures.
Very strange. Unless of course they are in the grips of banking interests.
We need to keep the pressure up or this bailout will get passed in a midnite vote.
The media is part of corporate America. I’m guessing that most high ranking managers, editors, and media owners have a very big stake in what happens with this bailout.
Most of the articles I read placed angry constituents as almost a side note, like they weren’t there. Usually they are stage center because that sells ad space (it bleeds, it leads).
It’s hard to know what happens next. I think the reps who voted against are going to do their best to quietly make sure that was the last vote until after the election. Time and inaction are now on their side. It’s their seats (quite literally) on the line and 228 people have little incentive to make sure it comes up again.
Not only did they place the angry constituents as a side note, they often quoted supporters of the bill who suggested that the people were ignorant. I’m guessing they get another version up and going and pass it. The consolidation of wealth in this country has weekend democracy.
Yep, weekend democracy is what it has become. All the important decisions are made on the weekend.
The media is so slanted it’s unbelieveable. They act like everyone is for the bailout and ignore the fact that the House and Senate phones are ringing off the hook. CNN is better than the rest but that ain’t sayin’ much.
Did anyone see the videos of New Yorkers protesting the bailout? Wallstreet was jampacked with protesters.
“Why is the media so hot and bothered…”
An awful lot of folks are putting their reputations and futures on the line in the mad dash to pass this thing. They better hope someone has their back…because we sure don’t.
It’s the same in German press: all of a sudden, it’s “these stubborn Reps did not support Bush. Bush’s bailout, if only there was not this inexplicable mutiny in Congress.” Yeah, Bush’s great plan that they hope will keep their stocks from falling.
No word about constituents, nada.
The stupidity of the reporting there is mind blowing.
I can’t believe that maxine Watters was in favor of this pile of crud bill either. Considering her constiuency is dirt poor, what was she thinking?
Maxine got hit by the stupid stick one too many times or maybe a few too many! The woman is quite a piece of work. I laugh every time I hear her speak at one of those hearings on finance. My mother had to work with this “Latrodectus hesperus” more than once and she has nothing nice to say about her other than, “The people in her community love her.”
She thinks her own mortgages will be saved, maybe?
I’m sure these reps get plenty of calls from their constituents to “do something about our house prices.” That’s the logic Dems who supported this used.
Everything is changing. People are taking their comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke.
Will Rogers
This evening’s must see TV:
- Daily Show
- Colbert Report
I remember some months ago when I conjectured about how soon these fine comedy news shows would latch on to the story of the collapsing bubble. That time is now.
when they all belive the worst mistake you ever make is buying a house, or investing, or paying off debt….
Who are they?
what is the crowd telling you?
…..Ive read for almost 4 years. went through 4 “handles”….yet Im happy, comfortable, and still learning.
I bought 2 years ago, and I pay less than equivalent rent on a 15 yr fixed at 5.75%…..
Stucco, dont be a deer in the headlights.
Maxine was probably hoping to secure campaign contributions from REIC lobbyists. Perhaps a Maui vacation as well.
The best laid plans of mice and (wo)men oft go awry.
I just got my power back on after Hurricane Ike. Did I miss anything in the past 2 weeks?
Welcome back!
Well, the world hasn’t ended*.
And ‘Dexter’ starts again tonight
*Yet..
Today’s Wall Street Gangster Massacre was AWESOME. I nearly fell out of my chair laughing when I saw 600 down earlier!
It’s called CAPITALISM, asswipes. You wanted nothing to do with SOCIALISM when it would be used for someone down and out. But as soon as the shit hits the fan in your neighborhood, you start screaming for a bailout.
This is CAPITALISM. Live by the sword. Die by the sword.
This would be the DIE part. Oh well, maybe next time you will think to throw some scraps to those less fortunate. Put another way…be nice to the people you pass on the way up. You may need them on the way down. But you asswipes won’t get a next time. Game over.
WALL STREET IMPLOSION = SEPTEMBER 29 SHOULD BE A HOLIDAY.
These are the same people that spend every waking hour trying to figure out how to STEAL us blind. It is a great day friends! A great day!
Woah there, br. You’d better run around your house knocking on everything wood in it. I want to make sure the beast is dead before I turn my back on it.
I’m all for these huge banks failing and people who deserve it to get hurt…perhaps they’ll realize how much hurt their way of business has hurt and destroyed so many lives elsewhere around the world with their integration into world bank investing….I hope they fry.
But hell with MAIN STREET too….so much fraud and corruption by the average joe who is now whining like a little bi&atch. F EM too…
If I can sit down and read a 15 page contract before signing my life away. so can anyone else…poor or not.
I called int KPFK today and that little twit Eric was whining about how poor people got duped….ughhhh…yeah…so what? Too bad.
Bush is gonna address the nation at 7.45 am tomorrow morning..
Any Guesses..
- Martial law?
- Suspend elections?
- Pass bill as presidential order?
- Admit that he is an idiot?
- Urge lawmakers to pass the bill?
- Any other ideas?
We’ve weathered a bailout failure and seen happens to our stock holdings. Let the financial institutions do likewise. When was the last time they gave you a break on your credit card interest, or paid a reasonable rate on your savings account. Let them go broke. Paulson can create all the liquidity necessary. No bailout!
“Osorio, an escrow officer…”
“But she said she never realized a loan balance could grow so fast.”
I am having considerable difficulty reconciling these two facts. I guess I am now officially one of those older people, who say things like “In my day escrow officers understood compound interest.”