October 9, 2008

The World Is Changing Pretty Rapidly

The Star Tribune reports on Florida. “Fort Myers is the spring home of the Minnesota Twins, and so many Minnesotans visit or live here for at least part of the year that some have called it ‘Edina by the sea.’ It may still feel like paradise…but a short drive or a foreclosure bus tour reveals what was left behind when the housing bubble burst. Just east of Fort Myers, the weekend tours wind through Lehigh Acres, a once-fast-growing city of about 70,000 that’s been hard hit by the housing meltdown. It’s easy to reserve a tee time at the local Copperhead Golf Club, where fairways are lined with vacant houses and undeveloped lots.”

“‘You can get a house that sold for $700,000 three years ago in the $200,000s today,’ the starter told a group of hackers from the Midwest last week.”

“There were a staggering 22,000 foreclosure filings in Lee County, where Fort Myers is located, in 2007-08, compared with 1,600 in 2005-06.”

“In south Florida today, even the most informal conversations quickly turn to the economy and the housing free fall. There were few signs of a rebound at Copperhead Golf Course last week. ‘Come back Sunday,’ an employee said as he helped the Midwesterners pack up their clubs. ‘We’re really hurting on Sunday.’”

The Naples News. “September’s snapshot of home sales in the Fort Myers area is a picture of climbing sales yet growing inventory. September’s median sales price slipped another 6 percent from August to $126,250. That’s 42 percent lower than a year ago at $218,000.”

“The ratio of homes sold compared with new homes listed, which indicates to Realtors if the market is reaching a balance, fell to 33 percent compared with 39 percent in August. The drop came as the number of newly listed homes spiked 27 percent to 2,277 in September from 1,850 the month before. Realtors were encouraged by a 25 percent jump in pending sales as more than 1,400 contracts were signed in September. But as borrowers have struggled to receive loans, those pending sales may not translate to sealed deals.”

“The total number of homes on the market, 12,614, was the highest it’s been since November when there were more than 13,400 listed.”

“A leading economist said Southwest Florida’s housing market continues to sit on the bottom. Hank Fishkind was the keynote speaker at the conference, hosted by the Chamber of Southwest Florida. At last year’s event, Fishkind said the Southwest Florida housing market had bottomed out.”

“‘It just keeps banging along the bottom,’ he said. ‘Certainly, I couldn’t anticipate the financial panic.’”

“Fishkind said foreclosures in Lee County seem to have peaked, with year-to-date numbers down, but foreclosures in Collier County doubled in the same period. ‘It looks to me like we’ve seen the worst. Collier County’s going to have some problems going forward though,’ he said. ‘I didn’t think we’d see the surge in foreclosures in Collier County. I think it’s the last of the speculators throwing in the towel — or being forced to.’”

The News Press. “‘When we see a recession due to housing and credit issues, as we are seeing now, Florida suffers more than the rest of the U.S. and Southwest Florida suffers more than the rest of the state,’ Fishkind said. ‘Florida, in general, and Southwest Florida, in particular, depends on the ability of people in Northern states to move here. If they can’t sell their house in Boston … they can’t move here.’”

“At last year’s conference, Fishkind also predicted a two-year recovery period. ‘It’s never an easy task to pick the top and the bottom of a market,’ he said. ‘I’ve been at this 30 years and I’ve made my share of mistakes.’”

The Miami Herald. “Just how busy is Miami bankruptcy lawyer Michael Brooks these days? ‘If I wanted to schedule appointments Monday through Sunday, 9 to 6, I could do it,’ Brooks said. ‘It’s getting to the point where we’re turning away business.’”

“Nearly 13,500 personal bankruptcy filings were recorded in the first nine months of this year in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Florida, an increase of 75 percent from the almost 7,700 filed during the same period in 2007.”

“Bankruptcy trustees and lawyers attribute the surge in filings in South Florida to the area’s rising tide of foreclosures, brought on by falling property values and costly mortgage loans. ‘In the old days, people were saving their home from foreclosure [by filing for bankruptcy],’ said Jeffrey Tromberg, a lawyer for the Florida Debt Relief Center in Fort Lauderdale. ‘Now, more often than not, they are walking away from their home. They are no longer even attempting to save their home in bankruptcy.’”

“Most of what Brooks sees are people who bought multiple investment properties on the west coast of the state or north of Palm Beach County and who can no longer keep up with what they owe. ‘People are surrendering these properties left and right,’ Brooks said.”

“For months, South Florida business leaders have been thanking their lucky stars for Europe. A Miami vacation, a Fort Lauderdale Beach condominium, a boat made in West Palm Beach — all seemed cheap when you were paying in euros. Now, it seems, it may be time to pay the piper.”

“Marine-industry consultant Jim Bronstien heard an interesting story. ‘There were a number of offers for very large yachts, and the offers were rescinded after the market fell 700 points,’ said Bronstien, of Marine Business Advisors in Palm Beach County.”

“He said the industry has a lot tied to Europe’s fortunes. ‘I think anybody who isn’t a little bit concerned would be ill-advised,’ Bronstien said. ‘The world is changing pretty rapidly.’”

“A Coral Gables lawyer has been charged with helping to broker a crooked mortgage deal that used identity theft to buy a Coconut Grove house for more than three times what it was worth. Delaila Estefano and two men were charged last week with first-degree grand theft, organized fraud and using a fake ID.”

“According to an arrest warrant released Monday, someone in February used the identity of Bernardo Humbero Barreira to obtain a $484,286.06 mortgage from lender Citi Mortgage for a house owned by Romney. The price tag: $600,000. But co-defendant John Romney had paid just $185,000 for the two-bedroom, one-bathroom house just six days earlier. No payments have been made on the loan, police said.”

From Miami Today. “As foreclosures have spiked and loans become more difficult to come by, divorce proceedings have been prolonged, and in some cases, couples have put off a pending split. And in the case of death, homes have become controversial as parts of wills.”

“In cases of death, especially if it is the last living parent, a house left to split between children can be a messy matter, said Circuit Court Judge Celeste H. Muir, probate division. This is usually because most of the parents’ wealth is tied up into their home, Judge Muir said. ‘When somebody dies, if their will says they sell the house, it becomes a problem,’ she said. ‘The usual scenario is the children are expecting the proceeds to be 2006 prices and not 2008.’”

The Tampa Tribune. “The developer of Element, a 395-unit building under construction, has decided to turn the whole building into a luxury apartment complex, said John Akin, senior VP for development of Atlanta-based Novare Group. Akin would not say how many condo units have sold but said there were not enough contracts to finish the building as a condominium.”

“‘It will be a condo-quality apartment complex,’ Akin said.”

“Swaths of vacant land dot downtown streets. Some just happen to be the size of condo developers’ dried up dreams. Now, the big questions are what will be built on the land, and how long will it take to sell it?”

“‘We’ve got places where we could run cattle if we wanted,’ said Wilson Stair, the city’s urban planner.”

The Orlando Sentinel. “Orange County government will buy and fix up as many as 200 foreclosed homes in the next year, and sell them to moderate- and low-income buyers to help clean up neighborhoods worst hit by the mortgage meltdown. A $28 million federal housing grant will pay for the program, which could remove as many as 1,000 homes from the foreclosure ranks before the aid runs out in 2013.”

“Inside Orlando’s city limits alone, 5,000 properties went into foreclosure last year, according to data from Realty Trac. Financial experts say that number could continue growing until next year. ‘This is just a drop in the bucket,’ Commissioner Teresa Jacobs said.”

From WPTV. “At EZ Cash Pawn in West Palm Beach, they don’t need some wall street guru to tell them the economy is tanking. Shop owner Bob Desantis says their shelves are so stacked with electronics, musical insturments, guns, fishing poles, scuba gear - you name it, that they’re having to turn business away. With the housing bust, construction workers come through the door every day, he says, trying to get cash for unused power tools.”

“‘I have to decline it,’ says Desantis, ‘I have no choice. I have tools in the warehouse now. Every single tool you can think about. Electronics, plumbing tools.’”

“At Provident Jewelry and Loan on Clematis Street, store owner Robert Samuels says all kinds of people are coming through his door. ‘It’s crept from the lower and lower middle class to the middle and upper middle class,’ says Samuels.”

The Palm Beach Post. “A mortgage fraud ring used bogus deals for 13 homes in Palm Beach County to steal more than $1 million from lenders, Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum said Wednesday. Using straw buyers, Johnson Cuffy applied for mortgages. Once the loans closed, the straw buyers posed as owners and took home equity lines of credit from the lenders. The participants kept some of the proceeds and moved the rest through nonexistent companies to Johnson Cuffy, McCollum said.”

“Don Suozzo long dreamed of living on the beach. He couldn’t afford it. ‘I’ve been looking to get on the beach for 20 years, and the pricing was absolutely horrendous,’ Suozzo said. ‘The best we found was $300,000 and four or five blocks from the ocean.’”

“Then came the post-boom storm of mortgage defaults, and Suozzo started shopping for deals. In May, he became the proud owner of an oceanfront condo in Highland Beach. He paid $290,000 for the 2,240-square-foot unit. The previous owner paid $782,000 for the unit in 2005, then lost the condo to foreclosure.”

“During the first eight months of 2008, 18,065 properties in Palm Beach County went into some stage of foreclosure, according to the Palm Beach County Clerk and Comptroller’s Office. That’s more than in the previous two years combined.”

“With lenders willing to deal, foreclosures are the most active corner of the housing market, said Laurie Davies, a foreclosure specialist in Boca Raton. ‘Everybody’s looking for a fantastic buy,’ Davies said. ‘A lot of houses are going for 30 percent to 40 percent less than they should be.’”

“And compared to the bubble-inflated prices of 2005 and early 2006, the discounts are even bigger. Davies points to a couple of recent foreclosure sales that sold for half of their previous prices. In Wellington’s Olympia development, a home recently sold for $238,000 after going for $530,000 in 2006. At CitySide in West Palm Beach, a townhouse sold for $180,000 in July after trading for $505,000 in 2006.”

“Professionals in the gambling business have some pretty pointed opinions about the Wall Street titans who brought you the current financial crisis. ‘The problem is they were playing with other people’s money,’ says a stern-faced Alexander Havenick, whose firm runs poker parlors and dog racing tracks in the Miami and Fort Myers areas. ‘Would you do that with your own money?’”

“In Havenick’s business, everyone places his or her own bets, whether on a racing greyhound or three kings. Handing money over to Wall Street middle men with a taste for crumby mortgages has turned out to be a bad wager for the American public, he says.”

“Charles Anderer, publisher of the Casino Journal and Indian Gaming Business magazines, couldn’t agree more. ‘It’s a mug’s game,’ says Anderer, speaking of the state of affairs in the roller-coaster stock market and the other dealings by those financiers. ‘They say Wall Street has been operating like a casino lately, but that’s an insult to the casinos.’”




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124 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-10-09 10:35:22

IMO, the reason the global financial situation has deteriorated is the various players have reacted incorrectly to the housing collapse, and this is because they fail to view what has occurred as a mania. If one doesn’t accurately assess the cause of the problem, solutions are bound to fail. It’s like this Washington; people were gambling, on a scale unseen in the history of man. And treating failed gamblers like they are victims can only make the situation worse:

‘Junebug from Winter Springs, Florida. ‘I’m a single mother of 2 girls. I’ve never gotten child support but was finally able to purchase a house at the height of the housing bubble 3 years ago. I was doing nicely and getting my girls plenty of extras until the last 6 months or so. I work for a Sheriff’s Office here and Florida Residents approved a sweeping property tax ammendment that left local governments short because there was already housing trouble. I lost all overtime and with increased gas and food cost I’m now barely able to make the bills If my parents didn’t help with food I don’t know where that would come from. I don’t have any luxuries, no cable or internet. Only a cell phone (but no home phone) for myself and my daughter. I’ve never had credit cards. I didn’t want the temptation. I don’t know how much I can outlast this economy. I pray there is some relief in the near future.’

The result:

‘A failed attempt to sell a series of bonds and the uncertainty of an ailing financial market could impact some of the City of Miami’s planned capital improvements and public works projects, possibly forcing delays. The city’s underwriter attempted to refinance $29 million of 2008 pension refunding bonds last month, but couldn’t sell them, said S. Pete Chircut, Miami’s treasurer.’

‘ Interest rates on some of the county’s outstanding bonds have skyrocketed, and some bonds have failed to be remarketed altogether, according to a report to commissioners. Three weeks ago, the interest rate on $800,000 in outstanding series 1990 capital asset acquisition bonds was 1.88%. As of Oct. 1, it was 7.5%, according to the report.’

Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-10-09 10:58:51

Welcome to capitalism. Population: You.

I love it.

People want a return on their money as well as a return of their money.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-10-09 11:18:35

The former is nice, the latter is mandatory.

Comment by nick the wizard
2008-10-09 14:35:51

The former is delusion, the latter wishful thinking.

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-10-09 16:01:25

Right.

That’s precisely why nobody’s loaning anything to anyone.

When credit expansion stops, in a bizarre surreal sorta way, you’re back on some kinda “gold” standard.

 
 
 
Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2008-10-09 16:40:01

Best quote I heard today on CNN when they were analyzing today’s freefall was when they asked a trader, “What position should people be in with today’s market?” His answer, “Two positions, Cash, and Fetal”.

 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-10-09 12:09:05

getting my girls plenty of extras

But

I don’t have any luxuries, no cable or internet.

There is a disconnect here somewhere.

Comment by Va Beyatch from Virginia Beach
2008-10-09 13:07:13

A local friend… found out they are 4 months behind on mortgage. They finally cancelled DirecTV after they were 3 months behind on mortgage. Still have cable tv provided internet. I told him mooch wifi off a neighbor. He says they’re all encrypted. I’m like of all people that shouldn’t matter to you. Watch a video on youtube and crack the WEP key. He wines they are hard to receive. I’m like use a directional yagi antenna. Sheesh.

Earlier it was “Should we let go of electricity or water?” I think a relative chipped in. He is actively looking for employment but I would have cut stuff back way before that. I’m sure this has to be hurting their marriage.

Crazy world.

Comment by Gulfstreamfixer
2008-10-09 13:42:57

“……crack the WEP key………”

Really? Thanks…… :)

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 12:25:22

If one doesn’t accurately assess the cause of the problem, solutions are bound to fail.

Amen! The Vernon Smith Op-ed piece in today’s WSJ suggests at least some big thinkers are catching on.

Comment by DigitalMegaMall
2008-10-09 13:05:26

The cause of the problem is the sense of entitlement to “luxuries” that has manifested itself over the past decade. How many people do you know under the age of 50 who live below their means, let alone at their means?

Anyone who relies on near-term credit to survive is DOOMED. Cash is king!!!

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-10-09 17:43:29

At their means: my sister.
Below: Me.

So there is 2. It’s a start. :)

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Comment by cactus
2008-10-09 19:24:12

How many people do you know under the age of 50 who live below their means,

I know one but hes pretty boring spends alot of time on Blogs when he should be out “living Large “

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Comment by Ceylon Tea
2008-10-10 09:11:39

What if someone borrowed 100k to go to grad and law school, is now teaching, is screwed, but doesn’t have or want any toys?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2008-10-09 13:08:29

“If my parents didn’t help with food I don’t know where that would come from”

The Boomers are saving the world afterall, man.

Right on.

Comment by mikey
2008-10-09 14:06:30

Was talking to a neighbor that has a daughter who is a RE agent and evidently can’t make her bills. Daughter has a repeat client that is a young friend ( a stripper) from HS, that invested in 3-4 houses and is trying to get her to sell them before she totally tanks too. Mom is upset because the stripper friend is always calling and hounding her daughter 24/7.

Was almost tempted to say that at least the stripper had a real profession and shouldn’t really WORRY about losing her shirt.

Sheesh…some people have all the luck. If there was a fair God, I’d have a college age stripper calling and hounding ME 24/7 :)

Comment by Gulfstreamfixer
2008-10-09 14:20:41

Her job requires that she “lose her shirt”

You hear some of this, and you know it’s true…….nobody can make up stuff this funny on their own. :)

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Comment by mikey
2008-10-09 15:18:06

Oh, it’s true. Best part is that the Mom was advising me to get into an overpriced POS heat and energy eating 1920’s brick McMansion on her block early last sping. She was so proud of her RE daughter and all her little friends for investing in RE at such young ages. She and her hubby are well off but I believe that she was PO’d because the daughter and her b/f just hurridly asked them for the $11,000 tax exempt gift money to save their RE investments.

I know both her daughter and that friend from a party but had no idea that this young girl was a stripper until the economy, the daughter and the little friend all pissed Mom off.

The spontaneous amount off gossip and dirty laundry that is suddenly aired when things go bad is really amazing:)

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2008-10-09 18:02:54

RE: shouldn’t really WORRY about losing her shirt.

Hmmm…bottomless only…such a tart!

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Comment by implosion
2008-10-10 01:50:28

hd, is that bottomless pre- or post- razor?

All my older buds only talk about the stock market; strippers are meaningless. Funny how that works.

 
 
 
 
Comment by SFC
2008-10-09 13:52:28

With the Feds clamping down on the mortgage, medicaid, and insurance fraud that is Miami’s main industry, along with no access to credit for probably 90% of the Miami populace because of better standards, I think it could explode. Add in the housing crisis, European tourists that will stop coming now that they too are seeing their savings disappear, and Miami has no way to support itself. I live only 60 miles away, and I worry about getting caught in the mushroom cloud.

 
 
 
Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-10-09 10:55:57

So far it’s bailout, ooooooh, central banks, aaaaaah, stock markets, crrrrrrrp.

Soon it will be jobs, jobs, jobs. That’s when it gets entertaining.

Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 12:58:16

“jobs, jobs, jobs. That’s when it gets entertaining.”

Already getting entertaining in those towns in the South and heartland where they have meat and poultry processing plants. Reading reports how, after the ICE raids, locals are lining up to fill the vacant positions.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-10-09 13:14:43

But those are jobs that Americans just won’t do!

Comment by Gulfstreamfixer
2008-10-09 13:49:58

They were doing them until about 1980 or so, when the meatpackers figured out they could bust the unions by hiring illegals and/or refugees from Southeast Asia. And it wasn’t like the union locals were like the UAW or anything (it was a “right to work” state).

(sorry…..meatpackers = hog and cattle processors)

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Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-10-09 13:56:48

I believe they would. It’s just at the moment we would not [fit] in. I picked cucumbers with my sister during the 60’s. I’m a white as snow. At least everyone could communicate.

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Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 17:35:26

“At least everyone could communicate.”

And therein lies the problem. More than anything else, it is the issue of communication that underlies the illegal immigration issue. That’s why I’m not so sure the US will survive it. Those who can’t, won’t, or refuse to communicate, have a tendency to fight.

 
 
 
 
Comment by hoz
2008-10-09 20:44:18

Ben-Mar Hosiery Inc. is laying off 45 workers at 4313 Williams Ave. NE in Fort Payne this week. (Alabama)

A private cash rich company no women hosiery selling. 1 of over 121 layoffs so far this week. Tomorrow will be pink sheet day.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2008-10-09 11:03:36

“‘It will be a condo-quality apartment complex,’ Akin said.”

I could make so many comments on this ironic oxymoron, that I will just leave it as only a moron would say such a statement…

Comment by snake charmer
2008-10-09 14:17:39

There is no difference, with bubble building standards, between a condo-quality apartment complex and an apartment-quality condo complex. And I note that the completed building adjacent to Element, called Skypoint, also made the news this morning. A number of buyers are attempting to back out of their contracts and recoup their deposits, on the basis that the building –the site of a former Tampa Electric parking garage — lies atop contaminated soil.

As for Fishkind, his “share” of mistakes is a lot bigger than my share. Cue the seal.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-10-09 11:09:04

“At EZ Cash Pawn in West Palm Beach, they don’t need some wall street guru to tell them the economy is tanking. Shop owner Bob Desantis says their shelves are so stacked with electronics, musical insturments, guns, fishing poles, scuba gear - you name it, that they’re having to turn business away. With the housing bust, construction workers come through the door every day, he says, trying to get cash for unused power tools.”
======================================================

I’m in contact with a few pawnbroker friends, and they are turning away most consumer goods and presently only want to loan on precious metals(mostly jewelry), nothing else.

They have as much junk in the back room on pawn, as most every other pawnbroker in the country does, and the all-important redemption rate* is slumping towards 50%

* people that pay off their loans and retrieve their stuff out of hock.

Comment by climber
2008-10-09 16:23:56

Well, the economy can’t be too bad. The last few times I was in a pawn shop they had heavily used stuff priced right at brand new Home Depot prices. Like they had sentimental attachment to the stuff.

At some point in history weren’t pawn shops a place you could get a good deal on used stuff? Maybe they wouldn’t have to turn away business if they’d price stuff to sell.

 
Comment by combotechie
2008-10-09 19:32:59

Lol, the pawnbrokers are running out of cash.

Comment by Ceylon Tea
2008-10-10 09:27:47

Yeah, that is probably a bubble too! They are way over-extended!

Comment by Ceylon Tea
2008-10-10 09:30:02

Pardon,

Ha, I should have said “long” in pawnshop memorabilia!

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Comment by snake charmer
2008-10-09 11:19:24

The Element project in Tampa is going to be a condo-quality apartment complex, but with bubble building standards there’s really no difference between that and an apartment-quality condo complex. I note that the completed companion building to Element, Skypoint, also made today’s Tribune, in that numerous buyers are suing to back out of their contracts and recoup their deposits. The basis? The building purportedly was constructed on top of contaminated soil, because the prior structure, the TECO parking garage, had some tanks buried under it.

And I can’t help but rise to the bait whenever a Fishkind quote appears here. The guy “couldn’t anticipate the financial panic.” Right. Even an amateur historian or economist knows that an economy premised on limitless credit, leverage, and the expectation of perpetually-rising asset prices is doomed from the outset. At least this time he grudgingly admits to error, too late for the solvency of those who relied on his spiel, which to me always read a lot like a sales pitch posing as scholarship. But Fishkind’s “share” of mistakes is a lot bigger than my share.

Cue the seal.

 
Comment by goedeck
2008-10-09 11:20:42

Thats whats wrong with Lou Dobbs. He makes a lot of good points, but he always makes sure “the working middle class (aka the bulk of his audience)” is always the victim of every economic and financial iil in the world. The fact is many of these people gambled and lost and their money has been crouped and shoved down in the little square hole on the table.

Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 11:31:47

The fact is people from ALL classes gambled and lost. The interesting thing about this bubble was how egalitarian it was. Everyone from illegal crop-pickers to high-rolling nose-pickers got in on the game.

Comment by Muir
2008-10-09 15:03:30

Not me.

Comment by Vermontergal
2008-10-09 17:45:19

There’s gold up in them thar nostrils!

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Comment by reuven avram
2008-10-09 21:55:49

Maybe you didn’t gamble, but you probably lost! Every time they lower the interest rates to Harry Houseflipper can stay in his McMansion another month, millions of non-gambling savers get punished.

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Comment by implosion
2008-10-10 02:16:38

Agreed reuven. I will not likely buy a house again if the FBs get any kind of taxpayer break. My sole goal will then be to minimize taxation of any and all kinds. All donations to charities and church will cease.

Just let me know when it’s time to break out the nukes.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Bad Andy
2008-10-09 11:25:20

Housing meltdown was just the start of our mess. Look at the houses that were selling in the $700’s now selling in the $200’s. This is happening on the east side of the state as well. Now there’s few banks who want to loan any money…still got a long way to go.

Comment by denquiry
2008-10-09 12:22:42

Housing meltdown was just the start of our mess. Look at the houses that were selling in the $700’s now selling in the $200’s. This is happening on the east side of the state as well. Now there’s few banks who want to loan any money…still got a long way to go.
—————————————————————–
No Jobs….No homes. Ain’t free trade great?

Comment by taxmeupthebooty
2008-10-09 12:56:08

how is it related to free trade?- more like lending money to dead beats

 
Comment by patient renter
2008-10-09 15:01:38

Nothing could be related to free trade since free trade is something that doesn’t exist in the real industrialized world.

Comment by packman
2008-10-09 18:48:26

Exactly - blaming this mess on free trade is like tossing a bowling ball straight up in the air, and then blaming gravity when it bonks you on the head. Yeah maybe if gravity didn’t exist, then you wouldn’t have gotten bonked on the head - but gravity’s still kind of important, you know? You just have to not abuse it.

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Comment by reuven avram
2008-10-09 22:00:01

No! The housing meltdown started the END of this mess. It was the RUNUP that was the start.

 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2008-10-09 11:25:24

“A Coral Gables lawyer has been charged with helping to broker a crooked mortgage deal that used identity theft to buy a Coconut Grove house for more than three times what it was worth.”

A crooked lawyer and a crooked RE broker, what is this world coming to! [sarcasm off]

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-10-09 11:29:36

I enjoyed just now sending the account of the $290K oceanfront condo in PB County to my cousin David, who is still wondering if he did the right thing by accepting $280K for his NON-oceanfront condo in Jupiter this past May. Also I think the 2240-s.f. quoted at $290K in this week’s article is quite a bit bigger than the condo he sold for $280K. He’s champing at the bit, wanting to buy his daughter a house in Phila area. I’m saying keep powder dry a little longer.

Comment by Don't Know Nothing About Buyin No House
2008-10-09 21:38:55

az, none of that matters. The HOA/maintenance in large buildings with shakey, unpredictable owners. icky poo deal at any price and locale.

Comment by Ceylon Tea
2008-10-10 09:40:33

You are talkin some good sense there.

 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-10-09 11:29:58

“‘It will be a condo-quality apartment complex,’ Akin said.”

Spin it baby, sit and spin!

I’m savin’ this one for future use.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-10-09 11:34:28

That’s kind of like a trailer-quality box under the overpass.

 
 
Comment by SMF
2008-10-09 11:30:56

A lot of houses are going for 30 percent to 40 percent less than they should be.

No, they were overpriced to begin with and are now returning to normal.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-10-09 11:36:22

“…are now returning to normal”

Slowly returning to normal. Downturn started in 2006, people started to get real in 2008…and we’re still not done falling!

Comment by SMF
2008-10-09 12:10:59

Downturn started in 2005, actually.

And even in 2008, still too many believe that this is a dip in the road.

Comment by James
2008-10-09 18:44:47

Yeah, as soon as we saw the sales plummet the end was near. Then we started seeing cracks is certain cannary markets. Out in Cali, San Diego must have a lot of second homes and turned bad first.

By 2007 things were becoming a rout.

Here in LA, I’m seeing things creep tword the beach.

Plenty of forclosures there but they are still moving. Prices have come down and there are plenty of <400K inventory. Seeing forclosures across all levels of homes too.

All this is causing more damage to banks, which should keep pushing lending down.

We should start seeing companies is the southbay taking hits. Actors talking strike and figure movie business will be off as a non-esential gets cut back. Hell, I own probably 100+ movies and could stop renting for a year. Aerospace will get pummeled as budgets get cancelled or stretched out. Figure I have maybe a year left.

All that should hammer the hell out of LA along with government cutbacks and crime going through the roof.

If I get lucky, and that rarely happens, then I’ll survive the layoffs… maybe a buying opporitunity will happen.

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Comment by combotechie
2008-10-09 19:40:04

“And even in 2008, still too many believe this is a dip in the road.”

Such thinking should be encouraged, especially if the thinkers have money to commit to the System.

Remember: Every dollar a FB or a knifecatcher sacrifices to the System is one less dollar the taxpayer will have to pony up.

Love the NAR. The NAR is the taxpayer’s friend.

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Comment by inland empire
2008-10-09 12:51:47

I said the same thing these (realtors) are still wishing for a return to Never Neveland prices.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 11:36:35

“‘It will be a condo-quality apartment complex,’ Akin said.”

What does that even mean? LMAO! “Condo-quality” is certainly not a way to attract buyers who are familiar with the quality of a Florida condo. “Condo” is getting to be filthy, dirty word in Fla, as more and more people can’t come up with the monthly maintenance.

Comment by SFC
2008-10-09 13:32:36

Soon to be heard in ‘da hood - “yo mamma be condo-quality”.

 
 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2008-10-09 11:55:24

‘They say Wall Street has been operating like a casino lately, but that’s an insult to the casinos.’

How true. If one tries to rip off a casino and gets caught, they’ll usually be beaten within an inch of their life or disappear altogether. On the other hand, FB’s rip the house’s money big time, claim victim status and get bailed out.

 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-10-09 12:07:25

A little gem…

Orlando real estate appraiser David Ritter has been considering getting a $6,400 forehead lift from Matas. But Ritter was recently laid off and said he can only afford the surgery if he gets a sizable severance package.

“It’s a double-edged sword,” he said. “I need to do this because I’m 45 and competing with younger people” in a tough market.

Reliant in the past on Botox and wrinkle fillers, he feels pressure to look more youthful. “I always say it’s better to look good than to feel good, sometimes,” Ritter said.

He always sometimes says what?

How many of you here would spend $6400 of a severance package on your forehead?

Comment by ChrisO
2008-10-09 12:13:32

He might want to consider a brain transplant.

 
Comment by SFC
2008-10-09 13:40:14

I can see a tiny bit of logic in this for someone looking for a new job, but why did he need botox and wrinkle fillers while he was an employed real estate appraiser? Did people actually pick their real estate appraisers by the way they looked? Even in Florida that’s hard to believe.

Comment by hd74man
2008-10-09 18:10:51

RE: Orlando, FL

Dime-Dropped…You gettin’ a forehead job in order to compete too?

 
Comment by JackRussell
2008-10-10 06:49:46

I am guessing that he is competing for the younger ladies..

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2008-10-09 15:44:29

“I always say it’s better to look good than to feel good, sometimes,” Ritter said.”

Yep! The morgue is filled daily with people who looked good. Funny thing though is that they weren’t healthy either in body or psyche.

 
Comment by dakto69
2008-10-09 21:07:04

Back when Billy Crystal was on SNL he used to do a character named Fernando who always said “It is better to look good than feel good”

 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-10-09 12:17:58

After 3 PM, and Dow below 8900. But it’s an orderly decline once again. No capitulation.

Must…restrain…trigger…finger.

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-10-09 12:25:52

You didn’t keep money in this market did you Bill? I sold out of it when the Dow was approaching 14K and everyone was discussing the meltdown to come.

Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 12:38:31

I thought Bill meant he had to hold himself back from buying the dip. Quite a dip!

Comment by Bad Andy
2008-10-09 12:46:50

Not a big enough dip.

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Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 12:50:50

I thought they extended the short selling ban?

 
Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 13:10:55

Wow. Just. Wow. Bellowing Brian Williams will be knitting his eyebrows, furrowing his brow and wringing his hands on the NBC Nightly News this evening.

“Don’t cry for me, New York Cit-eeeeee!”

 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2008-10-09 13:02:52

Just dip once and end it.

Look Timmy , I`ll dip any way I want to.

George from Sienfeld

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Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 12:26:35

Yes, I just saw that. Holee cheet, mon. It’s a great day for America! I must say, I’m not sorry to see the formerly bloated market deflate. Does my heart good. Yep, hold back, because it’s gonna get better for the bottom feeders.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-10-09 12:38:25

I remember thinking people were insane for suggesting 7500. Erm…..

Comment by palmetto
2008-10-09 12:47:22

Are you catching this? Geez, 7500 seems like the not too distant future. Looks like the PPT is paralyzed. Hey, Hank Paulson! How’s that bailout going? To borrow a line from Kevin Phillips, if Paulson were Hindu, he’d be reincarnated as a pail.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-10-09 20:16:47

Just to clarify, we have been out of equities for over a year now. The stock market bubble deflation, which now completely overshadows the housing bubble deflation (sorry Ben), took longer to occur than I imagined.

Waiting for the day when everyone else is selling. It’s coming real soon.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Va Beyatch from Virginia Beach
2008-10-09 12:22:51

Hmm I’m not seeing any great deals on our local craigslist. I often peruse looking at musical instruments and scuba gear, but nothing good.

Comment by FP
2008-10-09 12:42:24

Make an offer. I bought some jewelry awhile back and got it for 60% off the asking. Cash is king!

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 15:25:28

Does it work on houses? Can anyone cite evidence? (I am willing to insult sellers with lowball offers once I am convinced it is worth the time and effort…)

 
 
Comment by zzz_ddd
2008-10-09 16:17:29

I am shopping for digital camera (SLR) and can’t find anything below .90c on the dollar: you can get better deals from amazon vendors.
Still ways to go for the toys.
Looks like there are some good deals on seadoos though.

 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2008-10-09 12:44:53

The DOW dropped another 100 points (from 400 to 500) just in the time I visited this blog!

 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-10-09 12:45:19

The stock market is crashing.

Question — did the housing bubble and bust, by itself, lead to the broader financial collapse, or was it part of a pattern that is also causing other collapses? Because it isn’t just financials and builders plunging.

Comment by Bronco
2008-10-09 14:05:54

The housing bubble caused the greater economic collapse.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 15:27:38

Same as usual…

IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, April 2003 —
Chapter 2: When Bubbles Burst
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML

Comment by Ceylon Tea
2008-10-10 10:04:03

Hi Prof,

I’m teaching abroad and I thank you for this article to share with students. I’m looking for passion and this will help.

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Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-10-09 14:07:43

It was one of a few load-bearing financial walls that were crumbling under stress.

Failure was certain, the exact sequence and timing wasn’t.

 
Comment by reuven
2008-10-09 14:35:26

Or, as I suspect, the stock market was very overvalued. The recovery after the dot-com boom was phony. The Dot-com boom was phony.

Imagine what our economy would be like without the last two bubbles. We would have noticed that there’s not a lot of high-quality job creation going on. We based an economy on selling houses to each other, not adding value to raw materials.

We accepted higher P/Es on our stocks, for no good reason. Basic rules of math still apply. Standard measures of corporate health haven’t changed in 100 years.

 
Comment by James
2008-10-09 18:53:30

People were also borrowing from the home ATM to invest in the market. Its been pretty well doccumented.

Also a lot of boomers are pulling money as the risk is too large.

Finally institutions are selling off because of potential downgrades. A lot of fund managers probably have to sell over the next few days due to downgrades.

Some of the big companies are underwater with debt. They are going to get into worse trouble as rates rise and they need to raise capital.

We are also always talking about price distortions in markets. So, many of the companies products are over priced due to credit and developed on business plans that are not valid when prices are falling.

So, deflation wins another throw against Bernake.

I’m thinking the market settles in 3500-4500 range. Probably next year.

 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2008-10-09 13:15:59

We put a written bid in on a house in Palm Beach Gardens Fl.
Our bid was $150,000 , found out yesterday the bank sold it for $270,000 . My wife is bummed , I am not . If at first you don`t succeed…..

 
Comment by betamax
2008-10-09 13:17:14

“The Star Tribune reports on Florida. “Fort Myers is the…”

Honestly, just that was enough to make me LOL.

Comment by snake charmer
2008-10-09 14:28:22

That’s 32,000 foreclosures in the last twelve months in Port St. Lucie and Lee County alone. In my mind’s eye I can’t picture that many houses, much less that many empty ones, even when I visualize looking out an airplane window.

Comment by pressboardbox
2008-10-09 19:22:33

that is an assload!

 
 
 
Comment by Mormon_Tea
2008-10-09 13:24:50

Hey now here’s a little squib bound to tickle:

Everyone who has invested in a S&P 500 indexed product in the last 5 years is now underwater if they still hold.

Glub glug glum

Comment by bananarepublic
2008-10-09 20:15:53

It is worse than that. Go back to 1997. The S&P and NASDAQ were at precisely the same levels.

A lot of people got suckered by the Wall Street gangsters. But those bonuses were AWESOME!

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 14:59:23

Another look on the bright side: Stock markets that are not artificially manipulated by shuddering them are likely to find a fundamental bottom (and the path to recovery) more quickly than those that are shut down.

Financial Times
Reaching for the stop button
Published: October 9 2008 19:41 | Last updated: October 9 2008 19:41

Anyone whose appetite for drama has not been sated by the events on Wall Street or in London should get out a bit more. There they will be able to watch the spectacle of the stock markets of emerging economies getting truly hammered.

Trading was halted in Iceland, Indonesia, Romania, Russia and Ukraine this week as share prices crashed. Moscow announced yet another market closure on Thursday but then compounded the sense of an arbitrary decision by changing its mind and reopening.

The appeal of reaching for the stop button when markets slide is undeniable. But such moves cannot possibly restore confidence and carry substantial long-term costs.

Comment by bottomfisherman
2008-10-09 21:58:24

Mortimer Duke: Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!
[shouts - it echoes pathetically throughout the trading hall]
Mortimer Duke: Turn those machines back on………….

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 15:07:59

TED spread (for perspective, click on 5Y).

There must be some kind of unprecedented opportunity implied here — maybe buying physical gold?

Comment by cactus
2008-10-09 19:34:47

maybe buying physical gold?

I thought it could not be found ? Anyway this is moving fast I hold mostly fiatascos via treasury MM would like to diversify but into what ?

 
 
Comment by Mike in Carlsbad
2008-10-09 15:09:53

Who on here yesterday said they were long in Icelandic bonds?

The Stunning Collapse of Iceland
Even after the government’s seizure of top banks, Iceland may face bankruptcy, with dire effects for huge Icelandic investments overseas

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2008/gb2008109_947306.htm?chan=globalbiz_europe+index+page_top+stories

Comment by hd74man
2008-10-09 18:20:36

RE: The Stunning Collapse of Iceland

Next industry….

Mail order brides…

Better get practicing on my Icelandic.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 20:21:18

Nah — they are ready to get back to fishing for fish now rather than loanable funds..

Wall Street Journal
* OCTOBER 10, 2008

As Banking ‘Fairy Tale’ Ends, Iceland Looks Back to the Sea
By CHARLES FORELLE

THINGEYRI, Iceland — Kristjan Davidsson went to sea as a deckhand at 16. At fisheries college he aspired to be a boat captain. For two decades, he sold fish and fish-processing equipment. Like his father, and practically everyone in this remote village, he owed his living to the fish his country pulled from the ocean.

But in 2001 Mr. Davidsson got bored. He joined one of Iceland’s newly privatized banks. He got rich. Now, he says, it looks like it’s back to fish. That may be true for this nation’s fortunes as a whole.

On Tuesday, Iceland’s government seized Glitnir Bank hf, Mr. Davidsson’s employer, caught up in the unfolding global financial crisis. On Wednesday, he came to the office for an emergency staff meeting. Glitnir’s government-appointed receiver addressed the troops. “The basic message I heard was, ‘Go find another job,’” says Mr. Davidsson.

 
 
 
Comment by Dr. Detroit
2008-10-09 16:23:53

Another week, another 1000 point drop in stocks. This is nature taking its course. The powers that be seem hell-bent on sending as much good money after bad as they can. Has anyone heard an apology for the Wall Street bailout that we implored our reps to vote against? I didn’t think so.

Comment by GH
2008-10-09 17:38:01

I believe the figure I have seen reflects an 8 trillion dollar loss on the dow for the past 30 days. 2/3 of a US year GNP.

700 billion really seems like bringing a sword to a nuclear war. Add this to the loss of wealth in housing ???

Now for the part folks seem to have a hard time understanding… Most of this supposed wealth never existed to begin with. Has housing really lost value this decade? Can you really buy a home for less than you could in 1998? Not sure if the same could be said for the stock market, but I recon now is a better time to buy than last week :)

 
 
Comment by cougar91
2008-10-09 17:33:42

Not sure if this is true or not… $770K condo (2/07) selling for $189K today (70%+ drop in a year and half):

http://miami.craigslist.org/mdc/reb/873239936.html

Comment by sfdsdf
2008-10-09 21:36:08

will that condo value go to zero, if no one occupies it? no one to pay for HOA fees

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 19:30:04

October 9, 2008 10:28 P.M.ET
BULLETIN
Sell-off tsunami
Japanese stocks plunge more than 11% in early trading

Sea of U.S. red ink swamps Asian markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 loses more than 11% before pulling out of tailspin. South Korea drops nearly 9%, while Australia plunges 7.4%.

Comment by talon
2008-10-09 19:49:32

And Dow futures down 230. What are the odds anyone is going to want to be long going into a 3 day weekend? Tomorrow could be an interesting day.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 19:34:44

For the first time, the DJIA price movement is truly freaking me. Look at the trajectory and depth of the current drop compared to 1987. Unreal!

Comment by bananarepublic
2008-10-09 20:19:58

It was always going to get ugly when the Baby Doomers needed the money. The timing of this collapse smells of people exiting BEFORE the BD’s need to start taking their 5% each year.

It was always a Ponzi scheme. And now we see prices plunging on everything the BD’s bid up for the last 30 years…

Houses
Stocks
Boats
Cars
Collectibles
Etc.

Implosion

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 19:37:49

Are y’all ready for First National Bank of America?

Financial Times
US under pressure to rush out cash injection
By Krishna Guha and James Politi in Washington
Published: October 9 2008 23:58 | Last updated: October 9 2008 23:58

The US was on Thursday under pressure to rush out a bank recapitalisation plan to reassure the markets after yesterday’s dramatic late plunge in stock prices. US officials were hoping to have some time to finish the plan but analysts said they could be forced to act immediately.

On Thursday, the White House confirmed reports in the FT and other media that the Treasury is “actively considering” injecting public funds into banks in return for equity stakes.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-10-09 20:21:40

Lehman CDS’s settle tomorrow. Expect blood in the streets.

 
Comment by bottomfisherman
2008-10-09 22:03:31

The UK plan. Slightly better than just buying up worthless paper.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 20:43:29

Wall Street Journal
ON STYLE
OCTOBER 9, 2008
The Billion-Dollar Question: Is Bling Over? How Luxury Executives Are Handing the Financial Crisis; Selling the Yacht
By CHRISTINA BINKLEY

Francesco Trapani, chief executive of Bulgari Group, is cutting back on the fixed costs of his jet-setting lifestyle. The jewelry, luxury-goods and hotel magnate recently sold his 137-foot yacht, the “Christianne B,” and he’s holding off on buying any more homes. Even his bespoke Micocci shirt was slightly frayed at the collar last week — a fact he acknowledged with an apologetic smile.

“I’m being more prudent,” Mr. Trapani said. “I spent a lot of money this summer renting houses and things. But when the summer’s over, it’s over.”

Not even the richest people are feeling untouched by our current financial crisis. In their personal lives, as in business, the purveyors of luxury are sizing up what it all means. Some of the questions: Is it unseemly to spend money publicly? Will people still shop for the all-important holiday season? Is this the end of bling?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 20:45:17

Wall Street Journal
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 9, 2008
Progress Amid the Ruins
Some capital steps in London, and (maybe) at the U.S. Treasury

It may not look like it amid the wild markets, but the world’s political leaders are making progress against the global financial panic. The biggest problem continues to be that no one in authority seems able to explain what is happening and why, so all of this feverish government action is scaring everyone to death.

Comment by GH
2008-10-09 21:18:17

My favorite law these days, trumping Murphy.

The law of unintended consequences

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 21:31:32

The WSJ Op-ed writers seem as dazed and denial-stricken as the rest of us…

With so much frenetic action, it’s no wonder the world’s investors and even average savers are heading for safety. All the more so when there isn’t a Ronald Reagan or Paul Volcker who commands confidence on the world stage. President Bush has tried to reassure and deserves credit for pushing Tarp through Congress, but he’s lost his ability to persuade the public. Mr. Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke must rebuild their credibility after their mistakes of the last year. Meanwhile, John McCain and Barack Obama are both playing their familiar political tunes, which are largely beside the point.

Amid all of this, and despite the tumultuous markets, we are better off than we were a week ago. On present trends, we might avoid a crash after all.

The market is down by 40 pct in one year. How much farther does it have to drop before the selloff qualifies as a crash?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-10-09 21:36:50

What is happening right now is really not a matter of rocket science. Through deceptive accounting practices, debauchery of traditional lending standards, and spurious credit rating, the value of certain assets (including houses and MBS) became spectacularly overvalued. Now we have the inevitable correction to fundamental value, accompanied by a bunch of chickens running around like they just had their heads cut off.

Comment by GH
2008-10-10 00:23:03

Amen!

 
 
 
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